Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: THQ, SWZ, VICI

Economy: 

Goldman’s Hatzius sees no need for a Fed rate cut: MarketWatch weekly sit-down - MarketWatch

A .25% cut in the FF still has a 100% probability.  Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool The probability of at least another .25% cut, which would take the FF range down to 1.75% to 2%, on or before the December 2019 meeting is at 86.9%. 

I would agree with Scot Minerd that the FED will likely cut rates to below zero when the next recession arrives. The Fed Should Consider Hiking Rates, Not Cutting Them-Barron's ("In the postwar era, the Fed has reduced short-term interest rates by an average of 5.5 percentage points during easing cycles associated with recession.") Needless to say, there will not be 5.5% to cut next time and consequently the economic stimulus from rate cuts will not be an option. Depending on the recessions's severity, the FED will also launch another massive QE program in an effort to monetize the swollen budget deficits with a possible impact being "negative Treasury yields". 

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass says a US-China trade deal can't be reached

Trump rips China as stalled trade talks are set to resume

Wall Street should be ready for more tariffs to hit China: Cramer

China's industrial profits fell 3.1% in June

Consumer Confidence rebounds in July to 135.7, vs 125 expected

Pending home sales beat expectations, thanks to lower mortgage rates (Sales were 1.6% higher Y-O-Y, breaking a 17 month of lower sales Y-O-Y. I would not regard that slight uptick as a trend reversal or as important)

+++++++

Markets and Market Commentary:

Goldman Sachs ups S&P 500 forecast but cuts earnings outlook (lowered S & P 2019 earnings estimate by $6; raised S& P year end level to 3100 and 3400 for 2020) The 2020 target of 3400 would only be consistent with no recession starting through 2020. The stock market gains predicted by GS from now to the 2020 election would make it more likely that Donald will win a second term.   

A 'VIXplosion' may soon hit the stock market: Strategist Sven Henrich

US consumer is 'best bet in the market right now,' says expert

This top-heavy stock market might need an interest-rate hike, not a cut, says Robert Shiller, Nobel-winning economist - MarketWatch

European stocks spiral down on Trump’s trade tirade against China-MarketWatch

Trump administration drafting plan to allow US to import drugs from Canada

There is a cosmic form of justice in the Trumpster Boris Johnson now having to deal with the real problems of Brexit that he vigorously supported with false promises. British pound collapse continues as sterling reaches new two-year low - MarketWatch

+++++++

Trump:

Yesterday, Donald  stated he was the "least racist person anywhere in the world". 

Iran intends to restart activities at Arak heavy water nuclear reactor

Trump's approval rating improved after his "go back" comments directed at 4 freshman non-caucasian congresswomen. 

A poll release yesterday found that a slim majority of Americans viewed Donald as a racist including 80% of black Americans. Poll: 51% of Americans think President Trump is racist; Half of Voters Believe President Trump Is Racist, Poll Shows - The New York Times; National (US) Poll - July 30, 2019 - Trump Is Racist, Half Of U.S. | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (only 8% of republicans view him as a racist; 56% of the independents and 86% of the Democrats). 

While republicans would take major offense with what I am about to say, and I could care less, denying that Trump is a racist is some evidence that the person making the denial is a racist.

{after listening for as long as I could bear to the Democrat debate last night, I reconfirmed my non-affiliation to either political party.}  

The total number who believe that Donald is a racist is close to unchanged compared to two polls taken in 2018, so recent events have only nudged the total from 49% to 51%.

I believe that Donald is a racist demagogue who reminds me more of Pitchfork Ben Tillman than more contemporary versions like George Wallace and Lester Maddox.   

Ben Tillman and the Reconstruction of White Supremacy: Amazon.com Books

Donald is spewing his venom again in non-sensical ways. Trump calls for probe of Obama book deal Why would any sane person call for an investigation of former President Obama's book deal after he left office. In TrumpWorld, only republican presidents can write an autobiography. 

Trump calls Baltimore 'disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess'  

Donald frequently refers to communities that are predominantly non-caucasian as being "infested". I am unaware of him referring to a predominantly caucasian community using that word. He reserves the words "infested" for communities of color. 

Trump’s attack on Elijah Cummings utilizes racist stereotypes - Vox

‘Louder and more hateful’: Big-city leaders say Trump’s attacks on Baltimore are escalation of his strategy to denigrate diverse, liberal areas  

It’s not just Baltimore: President Trump’s long history of insulting cities around the world - The Washington Post

The republicans are holding a confab in downtown Baltimore. Despite Trump's attacks, House GOP to hold annual meeting in Baltimore - Business Insider 

I would note that Congressman Elijah Cummings is not the mayor of Baltimore. 

His congressional district is about 53% black and 36% white. Cummings' district has  “above-average college education rates and home prices, along with a pretty good mix of urban and suburban areas (even some rural), and well-off, working-class and middle-class areas.”  More about Elijah Cummings’ 7th congressional district in Maryland- Baltimore Sun; Maryland's 7th congressional district 

Cummings district include only part of Baltimore. The districts are gerrymandered by the democrats so there is only 1 GOP representative and 7 safe democrat districts. 

Baltimore Sun Response: we “would tell the most dishonest man to ever occupy the Oval Office, the mocker of war heroes, the gleeful grabber of women’s private parts, the serial bankrupter of businesses, the useful idiot of Vladimir Putin and the guy who insisted there are ‘good people’ among murderous neo-Nazis that he’s still not fooling most Americans into believing he’s even slightly competent in his current post.” The Baltimore Sun concluded with a statement that it was better to have a few vermin rather than to be one.  

Donald's Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, who used to represent South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, defended his boss as did other republicans. Most remained silent.  

Mulvaney said he would "get fired" as a congressman if his congressional district had poverty like Baltimore. 

According the U.S. Census Bureau, Mulvaney's district had a poverty rate of 14.9% compared to 16.6% for Cummings' district, and Cummings' district had a higher median income. Truth and facts do not matter to the Trumpsters and Mulvaney is no different on the truth-o-meter than his boss. Trump calls Cummings a 'racist' in second day of attacks on lawmaker, Baltimore 

Other congressional poverty rates include the following: 

Rep. Harold Rogers (R-Ky.) at 29.1%
Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-La.) at 25.1%
Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-W.Va.) at 23.3%

Trump Critics Post Photos of Poverty, Homelessness in Republican Districts Across U.S. Of the 10 poorest states, nine are solidly republican. This is the Republican Party’s most ignoble hour - The Washington Post

There are rat infested apartments in Baltimore, as there are in other cities, but Jared Kushner owns many of the ones in Baltimore. 

Kushner owns lots of Baltimore-area apartments. Some are infested with mice. - The Washington Post; Jared Kushner’s Other Real Estate Empire in Baltimore - The New York Times

Trump’s ‘rat infested’ tweets about Baltimore are actually true in these Kushner-owned apartments - MarketWatch

I would agree with Kevin Kruse, a Princetown history professor, that Donald is worse than George Wallace. Opinion | The Real Problem With Trump’s Rallies - The New York Times I would say exceedingly worse.  

I was trying to recollect yesterday whether Despicable Don has ever called a non-caucasian person smart. I could not recall an example.

I could easily recall numerous occasions when he referred to non-caucasians as dumb.

One recent example was this tweet from Demagogue Don:

So why is Donald and his cult focusing so much attention on 4 non-caucasian freshmen congresswomen?

Trump attacks LeBron James — and Don Lemon — in a tweet - Vox

‘What a stupid question’: Trump demeans three black female reporters in three days - The Washington Post

Donald Trump’s long history of racism, from the 1970s to 2019 - Vox

Trump’s Racism: An Oral History - The Atlantic

Michael Cohen: Trump said 'black people are too stupid to vote for me'

Trump is in his own words an Extremely Stable Genius. President Trump: ‘I’m an Extremely Stable Genius’ Donald is neither stable nor a genius, more like a new breed of a venomous snake. 

Was a Newly-Discovered Species of Amphibian Given the Name 'Dermophis Donaldtrumpi'? (a blind creature that buries his head in the sand)

Carla Provost, Border Patrol chief, was member of racist and sexist Facebook group - The Washington Post; Border Patrol Chief Was Member of Secret Facebook Group; Inside the Secret Border Patrol Facebook Group Where Agents Joke About Migrant Deaths and Post Sexist Memes — ProPublica

Inside Liberty University’s ‘culture of fear’: How Jerry Falwell Jr. silences students and professors who reject his pro-Trump politics.-The Washington Post

Trump's Treasury pick Monica Crowley spread Obama smears: 'Can he be both loyal to Islam and loyal to the United States?' Ms. Crowley was one of Fox's faux blondes that generated the perpetual flow of Fake News at that network. 

++++

On a side note, I left Nashville to work in D.C. for about 5 years starting in 1979. I rented an apartment in the upscale city of Silver Springs, Md, but I opted for a relatively inexpensive apartment. A few nights after moving into this older apartment building, I heard a tribe of mice running on top of the ceiling below the roof. I reported the problem to management who of course did nothing for the year that I lived there. 

A few weeks after reporting the problem, I awoke from a deep sleep, feeling like there was another presence in the bed with me. I saw a mouse staring at me a few inches from my head. 

+++

A “city-killing” asteroid just zipped by Earth. Why didn’t we see it coming?

Nick Sandmann lawsuit against Washington Post dismissed by judge This was a frivolous lawsuit IMO. I doubt the WP will file a malicious prosecution suit against the attorney representing Sandmann even though that suit would not be frivolous and would make it to a jury. What is Malicious Prosecution? 

++++++++

1.  Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:

A. Bought 50 VICI at $22.19 ($1 IB Commission):

Quote: VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) 
VICI Properties, experiential real estate, gaming & hospitality destinations
SEC Filings 
2018 Annual Report (risks summarized starting at p. 20)

This is my first purchase. I will consider buying another 50 shares at less than $20. About VICI Properties, gaming & hospitality real estate I am simply expanding my search for income generating stocks beyond what I have bought and sold in the past. 

VICI is a REIT that owns casino resorts and four golf courses. The casino resorts currently consist of 22 properties with 14,800 hotel rooms and more than 150 restaurants, bars and nightclubs.

Major risks include substantial debt ($4.1 billion as of 3/31/19) and heavy exposure to Caesars Entertainment Corporation that operates under the Caesars, Horseshoe, Harrah's, and Bally's brands. 

Upon consummation of Eldorado Resorts Inc. acquisition of Caesars Entertainment, VICI will be heavily exposed to Eldorado as an operator of its gaming properties. Eldorado to Combine With Caesars Creating the Largest Owner and Operator of U.S. Gaming Assets (6/24/19) 

IPO Prospectus 2/2018 (60,500,000 shares at $20; $18.85 after underwriters' discount)

Stock Offering Prospectus June 2019 (35M shares at $21.5 and at $20.7475 after underwriters' discount and another 65M shares in a forward sales contract due 15 months after the date of the prospectus supplement):

  

Vici Properties Inc. Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares | Business Wire

On the date of my purchase, the 200 day SMA line was at 21.55. The stock had just pierced its 50 day SMA line, which was then at $22.23 using a YF one year chart: VICI Chart 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.287 per share ($1.148 annually)

VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) Dividend Date & History-Nasdaq

Tax Treatment 2018 Dividends: VICI Properties Inc. Announces Tax Treatment of 2018 Dividends | Business Wire (section 199A ordinary dividends)

Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/27/19 (before purchase)

Dividend yield at $22.19 = 5.17%

Major News Event: VICI Properties Inc. Enters Transformative Partnership With Eldorado Resorts Related to the Proposed Combination With Caesars Entertainment

Recent Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/19)

VICI Properties Inc. Announces First Quarter 2019 Results

VICI is expected to release its second quarter results after the bell today.

Other 2019 News Items:

VICI Properties Inc. to Acquire Three Regional Gaming Properties and Enter into Master Lease Agreement with Century Casinos, Inc. (6/17/19)(" VICI Properties will acquire the land and real estate assets of the properties for approximately $278.0 million . . Simultaneous with the closing of this transaction, the Company will enter into a triple-net master lease agreement with Century related to the assets. The master lease will have an initial total annual rent of $25.0 million, for an implied capitalization rate of 9.0%, and an initial term of 15 years, with four 5-year tenant renewal options. The rent coverage ratio in the first year after closing is expected to be approximately 2.1x and the tenants’ obligations under the master lease will be guaranteed by Century.")

VICI Properties Inc. Completes Acquisition of Greektown Casino-Hotel and Lease to Penn National Gaming (5/23/19)("land and real estate assets of the Greektown Casino-Hotel (“Greektown”), located in downtown Detroit, Michigan, for approximately $700 million in cash . . Simultaneous with the closing of this transaction, Penn National entered into a triple-net lease agreement with the Company. The lease has an initial total annual rent of approximately $55.6 million and an initial term of 15 years, with four 5-year tenant renewal options. The Tenant’s obligations under the lease are guaranteed by Penn National.")

VICI Properties Inc. to Acquire Jack Cincinnati Casino and Lease to Hard Rock International (4/5/19)("definitive agreements to acquire the JACK Cincinnati Casino (“JACK Cincinnati”), located in downtown Cincinnati, Ohio, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $745 million in cash . . Simultaneous with the closing of this transaction, the Company will enter into a triple-net lease agreement with Hard Rock related to JACK Cincinnati. The lease will have an initial total annual rent of $42.75 million, for an implied capitalization rate of 7.7%, and an initial term of 15 years, with four 5-year renewal options. The rent coverage ratio in the first year after closing is expected to be approximately 1.74x and the tenant’s obligations under the lease will be guaranteed by Seminole Hard Rock Entertainment, Inc., which maintains an investment grade rating from S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings."

VICI Properties Inc. Completes Acquisition of Margaritaville Resort Casino and Lease to Penn National Gaming, Inc. (1/2/19)("announced it has completed the previously disclosed transaction to acquire the land and real estate assets of the Margaritaville Resort Casino, located in Bossier City, Louisiana (“Margaritaville Resort Casino”), for approximately $261 million in cash, with Penn National Gaming, Inc. .. Simultaneous with the closing of this transaction, Penn National entered into a triple-net lease agreement with the Company. The lease has an initial total annual rent of approximately $23.2 million and an initial term of 15 years, with four 5-year renewal options. The Tenant’s obligations under the lease are guaranteed by Penn National.")

Another risk is rapid empire building built on a mountain of debt. 

2. Pare: 

A. Sold 53 THQ at $17.98-Used Commission Free Trade: 

Quote: Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ)
Sponsor's Webpage: Fund Basics | Tekla Capital

Closing Price Yesterday: THQ $17.63 +$0.01 +0.06% 

Profit Snapshot: +$44.81 (for shares sold 7/17/19) 

Average Cost after Pare: $16.51 (reduced from $16.79)

Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 1 Bought 50 THQ at $16.5 (6/12/19 Post)

THQ-CEF Connect Page

Shareholder Semi-Annual Report (period ending 3/31/19)

Largest Holdings as of 3/31/19:

THQ is unusual in that it also owns healthcare non-convertible bonds and REITs. 

REITs Owned as of 3/31/19:

THQ Interactive Chart

Dividends: Monthly at $.1125 (supported by ROC)

Distributions | Tekla Capital Management LLC

Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/20/19

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, at greater than a 5% discount to net asset value per share

Purchase Restriction: For shares that are not purchased with dividends, any subsequent purchase has to lower my average cost per share.

Leveraged: Yes

"As of March 31, 2019, the Fund had drawn down $225,000,000 from the Line of Credit, which was the maximum borrowing outstanding during the period. The Fund is charged interest at the rate of 0.70% above the relevant LIBOR rate adjusted by the Statutory Reserve Rate for borrowing (per annum). The Fund is also charged a commitment fee on the daily unused balance of the line of credit at the rate of 0.25% (per annum). . . The Fund pledges its investment securities as the collateral for the line of credit per the terms of the agreement. The weighted average interest rate and the average outstanding loan payable for the period from October 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019 were 3.2236% and $225,000,000, respectively." 

Expense Ratio (ex interest expense): High at 1.49%

 Annualized as of 3/31/19

Page 21

Comparing THQ Average Annual Total Returns with the Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) Performance | Morningstar (through 7/26/19):

I used THQ return numbers based on price rather than net asset value per share: THQ Tekla Healthcare-CEF Connect (performance tab)

YTD:
VHT  +9.13%
THQ  +9.72%

1 Year:
VHT  +4.56%
THQ  +6.99%

3 Years:
VHT: +9.97%
THQ  +8.72%

B. Sold 100 SWZ at $7.91-Used Commission Free Trade: 

Profit Snapshot: +$37.98

Item # 1 Bought 100 SWZ at $7.53-Used Commission Free trade (2/27/19 Post) 

Quote: Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. (SWZ)

SWZ Swiss Helvetia Fund CEF Connect

I decided to sell after reading this news release. The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. Announces Filing Of Preliminary Proxy Materials; Proposal For Expanded Fund Mandate And Approval Of Investment Advisory Agreement With Bulldog Investors, LLC If investors approve of this change, "the Fund intends, as soon as practicable thereafter, to commence  a tender offer for up to 15% of the Fund's outstanding shares at a price of 95% of the Fund's net asset value per share."

IMO, this CEF has undergone too many changes in investment advisors and investment objectives. 

Instead of fooling with this one again, I will just buy EWL when and if the spirit moves me. EWL has outperformed this fund's managers.   

Average Annual Total Return Comparison (through 7/29/19): SWZ vs. EWL 

Sourced: iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL) Performance and Swiss Helvetia Fund CEF Connect (click performance tab)

SWZ returns based on net asset value rather than price

1 Year = 
EWL +10.87%
SWZ + 3.08%

3 Years=
EWL +9.89%
SWZ +7.44%

10 Years =
EWL +9.6%
SWZ +8.61%

I am buying EWL pursuant to a small ball "buying program". Item # 4.B. Bought 10 EWL at $35.64-Commission Free for Fidelity Customers(4/20/19 Post)

EWL will be more tax efficient when held in a taxable account. Dividend History - SWZ Fund

3. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:

A. Sold 1 Centerpoint 2.5%  SU Bond Maturing on 9/1/22:

Profit Snapshot: $25.96

Finra Page: Bond  Detail

Issuer:  CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP)
CNP | CenterPoint Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates

CenterPoint Energy reports first quarter 2019 earnings of $0.28 per diluted share; $0.46 earnings per diluted share on a guidance basis, excluding impacts associated with the Vectren merger

CenterPoint Energy and Vectren complete merger

Sold at 100.286
YTM at 100.286 = 2.403%
Proceeds at 100.186 (after $1 brokerage commission)  

B. Sold 1 of 4 VTR 3.2% SU Maturing on 10/15/26-In a Roth IRA Account:

The other 3 bonds are still owned in a taxable account.

Profit Snapshot: +$38.67 

Accrued Interest Paid by Buyer = $7.04

Item # 1.B. Bought 1 VTR 2026 at a TC of 95.074 (3/28/17 Post)

History:

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Issuer: Ventas Inc. (VTR)-An Equity REIT

Senior unsecured bonds issued by equity REITs will generally yield more than identically rated non-pass through entity bonds maturing at about the same time. The yield differential tends to increase as the credit rating moves down the investment grade rating scale. This Ventas bond is rated at BBB+/Baa1. I would only expect a slightly lower YTM compared to identically rated bonds issued by a non-pass through entity. The differential would be larger for REIT bonds with BBB-/Baa3 ratings. The main reason for the differential IMO is free cash flow paid out in dividends to REIT common shareholders. 

Sold at 100.16
YTM at 100.16 = 3.224%
Proceeds at 99.96 (after $2 brokerage commission)

4. Long Term Bond Strategy- Tennessee Municipal Bonds:

A. Bought 5 Dickson County, TN 2.125% GO Bonds Maturing on 3/1/30:

EMMA Page: Municipal Securities

Offering Statement-Dickson County TN GO Ref 2019

The initial offering for this municipal bond was in late June 2019.

Credit Rating: AA by S & P, recently upgraded from AA- in May. S & P referred to the county's "very strong financial position" in its May 2019 report. 

Security: Typical GO security

Optional Call: At par on or after 3/1/26

Taxation: Federally Tax Free Interest Payments

Bought at a TC of 98.39
YTM at TC =  2.297%
Current Tax Free Yield: 2.1598%

The current tax free yield was higher than the taxable 10 year treasury yield on the purchase date.

Dickson County is located in Middle Tennessee. Dickson County-Google Maps; Dickson County, Tennessee - Wikipedia

5. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy: 

SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)

FM = First Mortgage Bond  

CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured

MI = Monthly Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills Bought at Auction
Secondary Market: Treasuries bought at less than $1K par value 

Corporate bonds are bought at less than par value. 

August Maturities: 

5 Treasury 3 Month Bills  2.439% IR 8/1 (bought at auction)

4 Ebay 2.2% SU 8/1/19 (bought 9/2018 and 12/16)

2 Capital One 1.7% CDs 8/9/19 (2 year CDs)

2 Sterling Bank 1.7% CDs MI  8/8 (23 month CDs)
5 Treasury 8/8 2.505% IR (6 mo bill bought at auction)

2 MB Financial 1.65% CDs MI 8/9/19 (2 year CDs) 

4 CVS 2.25% SU 8/12 (bought 12/18 and 12/17)
15 Treasury 28 Day Bill 2.174% IR 8/13 (bought at auction)

2 Wells Fargo 2.45% CDs MI 8/13 (13 month CDs)
2 Treasury 3MO Bills 2.414%% IR 8/15 (bought at auction)

2 Tyson Foods 2.65% SU 8/15 (bought 7/18)

2 Synchrony 3% SU 8/15 (bought April 2018)(early call 7/15/19)

2 Treasury 2.365% IR (1 Year T. Bill bought at auction)

3 Public Service E & G 2% FM  8/15 (various)

1 Prudential 2.35% SU 8/15 (bought 7/18)
9 Treasury  2.128% IR 8/20 (28 day bill/bought at auction)
1 Treasury 2.147% IR 8/20 (2 month bill/bought at auction)

2 Merrick BK 2.35% CDs MI 8/21 (1 year CDs)
3 Treasury  2.52% IR Six Month Bills 8/22 (bought at auction)
3 Merchants BK 2.3% CDs 8/27 (2 month CD)
3 Treasury 2.527% IR Six Month Bills 8/29 (bought at auction)
3 Treasury 1.625% 8/31 (secondary market purchases)

1 Treasury 1% 8/31 (secondary market purchase)
  

$78K

A. Sold 2 Morgan Stanley 2.625% SU Maturing on 11/17/21: 

Profit Snapshot: $30.6 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS | Morgan Stanley Analyst Estimates
Morgan Stanley Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Results

Sold at 100.401
YTM at 100.401 = 2.444% (sourced FINRA)

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.