Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: AHY:AU, OMER, TCRZ, VGK

Economic Reports:

A. Productivity:

U.S. productivity rose at an annual rate of .9% in the 2017 second quarter, up from .1% in the first quarter. The consensus estimate was for a .7% gain. From the second quarter of 2016 through the second quarter of 2017, productivity increased by 1.2%. Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2017, Preliminary; U.S. productivity picks up a bit in second quarter - MarketWatch  

Productivity Growth by Major Sector, 1947-2016. Bar Chart

Why is US productivity growth so slow? Possible explanations and policy responses

B. Consumer Debt: 

Americans now have the highest credit-card debt in U.S. history - MarketWatch; The Fed - Consumer Credit - G.19

C. Producer Price Inflation for Final Demand: 

Y-O-Y and unadjusted for seasonal factors, producer prices rose 1.9% through July. Producer Price Index News Release text

U.S. producer prices post biggest drop in 11 months: Reuters

D. Debt Limit Increase: 

Calculated Risk: Goldman on the "Debt Limit"

Debt ceiling drama could soon weigh on stocks, strategists warn: CNBC 
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Market Commentary:

Buffett has built his stockpile of cash to almost $100 billion. Buffett’s Berkshire Has $100 Billion and a Bright Future - Barron's

These 7 billionaires are worried about a stock-market correction - MarketWatch

Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart - The New York Times; What that viral New York Times inequality chart really shows - MarketWatch

If this red flag is any indication, a 1929-style market crash isn’t so ‘unimaginable’ - MarketWatch

Stock market correction indicators amid new highs - Business Insider

The Stock Market May Be Poised for a Replay of the 1987 Crash - TheStreet

There are only two other times in history when stocks were more expensive than today - MarketWatch

There’s a 'supervolcano' waiting to erupt beneath a seemingly 'beautiful' market: CNBC (Barry James-Mutual Fund President James Investment Research).

Market 'melt-up' could push stocks to new records, Yardeni says: CNBC

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Trump and North Korea:

Trump Vows ‘Fire and Fury’ If North Korea Keeps Threatening U.S. - Bloomberg; Trump threatens North Korea after US assesses they have miniaturized a nuclear warhead - CNN

"North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. As I said, they will be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before."

Donald is the first U.S. President to match the using militaristic and bombastic rhetoric that flows from N.K. daily. Trump's dire rhetoric echoes language of North Korean propaganda | World news | The Guardian; Trump’s Harsh Language on North Korea Has Little Precedent, Experts Say (Truman used similar language directed at Japan near the end of WWII, soon after the U.S. dropped a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima: "Sixteen hours ago an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima and destroyed its usefulness to the enemy. ….  If they do not now accept our terms they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth.” Japan surrendered shortly after a second bomb was dropped on Nagasaki ending WWII)

Trump's comments are yet another red line drawn by him relating to NK. 

What does Donald mean by fire and fury? He was referring to a nuclear attack IMO based on the following tweets and his use of Truman's words in his warning to Japan (see above previous quote)

Trump on Twitter boasts about US nuclear arsenal after 'fire and fury' threat: CNBC  

Wow, that was one fast renovation and modernization but that was actually started under the Obama administration in 2014. Trump makes false claims about U.S. nuclear arsenal - LA Times; Has the U.S. Improved Its Nuclear Arsenal Under Trump? Fact-checking His Twitter Claims: Newsweek; Trump’s scary tweets about nuclear weapons, explained - Vox; Trump’s Nuclear Weapons Arsenal Isn’t Any Different Than Obama’s - Bloomberg 

What's more, it was Donald that drafted the Declaration of Independence and crossed the Delaware (he is the one standing in the boat and looking majestical)

Of course, and this goes without saying, facts do not matter to Trump and his followers.

Is that the official U.S. position in the event NK threatens the U.S. again, which is does regularly? 

NK did not wait 24 hours after Donald's statement to threaten the U.S. again: 

North Korea threatens missile strike on U.S. base on Guam - MarketWatch; North Korea Mulling Plan to Strike Guam, State Media Announces - NBC News; Guam: Tiny Island Thrust into the Center of North Korea Dispute - NBC News; Trump just set his own, uncrossable 'red line' — and North Korea crossed it instantly: CNBC

North Korea details plan to fire missiles toward Guam, says ‘only absolute force’ will work with Trump - MarketWatch  NK is certainly aware of what one Ohio class nuclear submarine can do: Why Russia and China Fear America's Ohio-Class Submarines | The National Interest Blog; The Navy's New Doomsday Submarine (it would only take the launch of all missiles from one U.S. submarine to turn NK into toast habitable by only a few unusually sturdy cockroaches) 

North Korea 'seriously examining' a strike directed near Guam - CNN 

And, importantly, there are inconsistent messages being sent almost daily out of the Trump administration regarding North Korea. The Trump Team’s Dangerous Mixed Messages on North Korea | National News | US News and World Report; Trump could disrupt diplomatic messaging on North Korea - CNN 

Mattis to North Korea: Stand down or risk end of regime - CBS News (Secretary of State took a different tone).  

Trump was of course shooting from the hip when talking about nuclear war which I find unsettling. 

General Kelly was surprised, though not shocked, by his remarks. Who could be shocked by anything coming out of Donald's mouth? Not me. 

Trump had a paper in front of him, relating to the opioid crisis, that he was supposed to discuss when he went off on the NK problem with whatever came out of his mouth. Trump’s Threat to North Korea Was Improvised - The New York Times ("The piece of paper, as it turned out, was a fact sheet on the opioid crisis he had come to talk about, and his ominous warning to Pyongyang was entirely improvised, according to several people with direct knowledge of what unfolded.") 

Jimmy Kimmel on Donald Trump's 'Fire and Fury' Threat to North Korea - YouTube
Stephen Colbert Monologue | Aug 8, 2017 Donald Trump - North korea Clash - YouTube

North Korea certainly understands that the use of a nuclear weapon against the U.S. or its allies will result in its annihilation. That point has been made over and over again in unmistakable, though diplomatic terms, by prior administrations. It is not a point that is arguable. 

Stating that the U.S. will level "fire and fury" on North Korea for a threat against the U.S. only serves to draw red lines that will certainly be crossed (and have already been crossed for Trump's latest red line) and will consequently needlessly increase tensions, volatility and the potential for unintended consequences. 

I do believe that the U.S. will launch a first strike against NK within Trump's first term. The rhetoric coming from Trump, Tillerson, McMaster, and Mattis leave no other options, unless of course NK buckles under pressure or the U.S. is simply bluffing.

The U.S. has made it crystal clear that it will not tolerate NK developing ICBM's carrying nuclear payloads. The Stock Jocks assign a zero percent chance of a nuclear war occurring in East Asia. They have no concerns about that kind of event whatsoever which is just delusional IMO.  

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One Recurring Category of Trump's Demonstrably False Statements:

Donald enjoys lying. He also enjoys manipulating people. 

One of Trump's recurring and obvious lies is claiming that the "Fake News" media does not cover a particular event. This is a typical example from last Monday:

I understand that the True Believers, who are now completely inoculated from even considering accurate information, do not actually read the NYT or the WP or listen to any news broadcast station that presents information inconsistent with Trump's reality creations.

Trump can consequently make whatever claim that the wants to about their coverage, and the True Believers will accept whatever he has stated about it.

There was of course abundant news coverage of the U.N. sanctions resolution by responsible and professional news organization or what Trump calls the Fake News media.

+++++++++++

Trump and Senator Blumenthal:

Trump is a jerk, probably the biggest jerk ever to hold public office in the U.S.

He has no redeeming human qualities that I am able to detect.

Senator Blumenthal (D-Conn.) is not going to lose his senate seat to a republican. So it is difficult to understand why Donald keeps throwing red meat to the True Believers about Blumenthal lying about serving in Vietnam.

Blumenthal was in the Marine Reserves, but was never stationed in Vietnam. He did state on several occasions that he served in Vietnam, a point revealed in a NYT article many years ago. Apparently, that article by the failing NYT is not Fake News: Candidate’s Words on Vietnam Service Differ From History - NYTimes.com

Donald has repeatedly pointed that lie on one subject,  but then adds an assortment of lies of his own creation.

Attacking Blumenthal was part of Trump's Tweet Storm last Monday:

There is no evidence, and Trump cites none, that Blumenthal told stories about participating in battles and conquests, his bravery in combat, and cried when confronted by that fact that he did not serve in Vietnam. Trump Says Blumenthal Lied About Vietnam (He Did) and Cried (He Didn't) - NBC News ("There’s no evidence that Blumenthal bragged — as Trump claimed in the tweets — about "battles" or "conquests" or cried when the scandal erupted during his Senate bid.") Trump could care less whether he is telling the public the truth about anything. 

While the True Believers enjoy reading these ad hominem attacks  they are just disgusting, serve no purpose other than to manipulate the easily manipulated TBs, and are beneath the dignity of the Presidency. They are simply what an adult would expect to hear from a five year brat and bully, who has not been potty trained yet in civilized manners and discourse.

Richard Blumenthal responds to Trump's tweets about Russian collusion and Vietnam - CBS News

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FBI searched Manafort home - CNN;  FBI raid on ex-Trump aide's home shows Russia probe intensifies: Reuters

Nearly Half of Donald Trump's Twitter Followers Are Fake Accounts and Bots

Trump retweets Fox News story containing classified info leaked by unnamed sources - CNN

GOP Sen. Ron Johnson (WIS): McCain's brain tumor might have been factor in no vote on health care - CNN; GOP Senator Backtracks on Linking McCain's Tumor to Health Vote - Bloomberg  Wisconsin re-elected Johnson in 2016.  

U.S. destroyer challenges China's claims in South China Sea: Reuters 

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1. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy: 

A. Bought 2 Citizens Bank 1.35% CDs Maturing on 2/2/18 (6 month CD): 

I have two 1% Old National Bank CDs maturing on 2/9/18 that have a one year term.

Citizens Bank is one of the operating banks owned by the bank holding company Citizens Financial Group Inc.  (CFG)

B. Bought 2 Bank of Hapoalim 1.4% 2/7/18 (6 month CD):

This CD was issued by the New York branch of Israel's Bank of Hapoalim which refers to itself as Israel's leading financial institution: Bank Hapoalim Group : BHI

C. Bought 3 Bank of India 1% CDs Maturing on 9/6/17 (one month CD):

I have 3 one month Bank of India 1% CDs that mature on 8/24/17 so I basically decided to rollover that amount through the purchase of this CD.

D. Bought 3 Merrick Bank 1.35% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 2/12/18 (6 month CDs):

I have two JPM 1.05% CDs maturing on 2/15/2018 that have a one year term. As older CDs mature, I am continuing to pick up marginally better coupons that have shorter maturities. Both the Merrick Bank and JPM CDs pay monthly interest.

E. Bought 3 Merrick Bank 1.2% CDs (Monthly Interest) Maturing on 11/10/17 (3 Month CDs):

$13K into Short Term CDs

2. Bought Back 1000 AHY:AU at A$1.35:

Quote: AHY Stock Price - Asaleo Care Ltd. Stock Quote (Australia: Sydney)

The stock dipped some on my day of purchase: AHY.AX A$1.34 -A$0.07 -4.98%

Asaleo is an Australian based personal care products company.

ASALEO CARE LIMITED (AHY) Share Price & Information - ASX

I became acquainted with this company when researching  Svenska Cellulosa AB ADR, which had a large ownership stake: Bought Svenska Cellulosa (SVCBY)-A Swedish Personal Care And Tissue Company - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

A few weeks ago, Svenska Cellulosa ("SC") spun off its personal care business into a new entity called Essity Aktiebolog, with the old SC keeping the timber and related assets. "All shares in the wholly owned subsidiary Essity will be distributed, according to which one share of Class A in SCA carries entitlement to one share of Class A in Essity and one share of Class B in SCA carries entitlement to one share of Class B in Essity." Distribution and listing of Essity Aktiebolag (publ) on Nasdaq Stockholm

It is Essity that now owns a 35.9% stake in Asaleo as of 12/31/16. Essity; SCA_Hygiene Annual Report at page 73.pdf A recent filing indicates that this stake has increased to 37.161% (Form 604) as Asaleo buys back stock and Essity keeping the same number of shares.

I have had two prior 1000 share round trip transactions and received one semi-annual dividend to date.

In my IB Account, I bought 1000 at A$ 1.355 and sold those shares at A$1.505, incurring a A$6 commission on both transactions.

AUD Profit = A$148

IB Account: 2016 AHY:AU 100 Shares +A$148

Reportable USD Profit = $94.13

My first trade was in my Fidelity account where I had to pay a A$32 commission on both the buy and sell transactions plus a USD 1% currency conversion from USDs to AUDs which wiped out most of my profit:

Item # 3 Bought 1000 Asaleo Care at AUD$1.86 (2/28/15 Post)

I sold that lot at A$2.28 and incurred a 1% currency conversion fee that was built into the rate shown below:

Profit USD $191.65

Transitioning International Trading to Lower Cost Broker:1. Sold 1000 Asaleo Care Limited at AUD$2.28 and Immediately Converted Proceeds into USDs: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 7/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Total Trading Profit to Date = $285.78

Currency Conversion at AUD/USD .754:

So Fidelity was paid four times for two transactions: C$64 in brokerage commissions and 1% twice on the value of the currency exchange. Just another reason among others to fire that broker and to use IB for these trades.

The dividends are paid semi-annually at a variable rate. The total for the last two dividends was A$.1 per share which were 50% "franked":

Assuming a A$.1 annual dividend per share going forward, the yield would be about 7.41% based on a total cost per share of $1.35.

That part of a dividend which is franked is not subject to Australian withholding tax. The fact that 50% of the dividend would be subject to a withholding tax simply means that this company did not pay enough in taxes to Australia to qualify the dividend as fully franked.

The financial reports can not be linked here but are available for download here. Of the reports listed on that page, the link titled 2016 Full Year Results Presentation" is the most informative.

The company had some problems in the first half of its fiscal 2016 year which since the shares plummeting. The details are summarized in the first snapshot and more information is available in the Full Year Results Presentation. Many of the negative events are what one would expect given the nature of the business, including competition and the variations in input costs.

Closing Price 8/10/17: AHY.AX A$1.425 -A$0.025 -1.72%: ASALEO

Semi-annual results are generally released in late August. 

3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

A. Sold 2 Precision Castparts 2.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/23:

Profit Snapshot: $30.84

Finra Page: Bond Detail

Sold at 100.7
YTM Then at 2.356%
Current Yield at 2.48%
Net at 100.6 (after $2 Commission)

Bought at a Total Cost of 99.058
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.E.
YTM Then at 2.676%
Current Yield at 99.058 = 2.52%

B. Bought 1 National Rural Utilities Finance Corp. 3% (monthly interest) Bond Maturing on 12/15/2027:

Finra Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings
Moody's at A2
Moody's affirms National Rural Utilities ratings; outlook is stable
S & P at A

Bought at a Total Cost of 97.850
YTM at Total Cost = 3.244%

C. Sold 50 TCRZ at $25.92 and another 50 at $25.93:

THL Credit Inc. 6.75% SU Notes Due 12/30/22 (TCRZ)

I sold what I consider to be high priced shares. I owned 100 shares in two fifty share lots held in separate accounts with each of those two lots bought at a price exceeding this bond's $25 par value.

Vanguard Taxable $ 7 Commission:

Profit Snapshot: +$14.97

IB Taxable $1 Commission:

Profit Snapshot:  +$34.96

Issuer: The BDC  THL Credit Inc.  (TCRD)
Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/17

The issuer cut its quarterly common share dividend from $.34 to $.27 effective for the 2016 4th quarter.

Net asset value per share has been trending down:

3/31/17 $11.71
6/30/16 $11.88  Page 3 SEC Form 10-Q
6/30/15 $13.29  Page 2 SEC Form 10-Q
6/30/13 $13.58  Page 2 Form 10-Q

D. Sold 2 WFC 2.15% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/30/2020:

FINRA Page: Bond  Detail

I owned 1 bond in two accounts:

Vanguard Roth IRA Account ( $2 Commission)

Profit Snapshot: +5.16

Sold at 100.522
YTM Then at 1.934%
Current Yield at 2.14%

Net at 100.322
YTM Then at 2.017%

Fidelity Account: ($1 Commission)

Sold at 100.515

Profit Snapshot: +$5.61

E. Sold 2 BBT 2.05% SU Bonds Maturing On 5/10/21:

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Profit Snapshot: +$28.73

Sold at 99.761
YTM Then at 2.116%
Current Yield at 2.05%

Bought at a Total Cost of 98.187
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ITEM # 1.B.
YTM Then at 2.514%

$8.593K Outflow from Intermediate Term Bond Basket

4. Continued to Pare Stock Allocation on a Net Basis:

A. Sold 109+ VGK (commission free for Vanguard Customers):

Profit Snapshot: +$747.31

Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK)
Vanguard VGK Page (expense ratio at .1%)

The $747.32 gain is my largest dollar trading gain for this ETF.

VGK has benefited in recent weeks from USD weakness against major European currencies.

My gut told me that the USD has fallen too far, too fast and was due for a rebound. The primary motives for selling VGK is to harvest a profit and to reduce my stock allocation. 

B. Sold Remaining 30 Shares of OMER at $21.88:

PROFIT SNAPSHOT: $385.6

QUOTE:  Omeros Corp. (OMER)

My other 30 share lot was sold at $20.61 and bought at $9.35 on 1/19/17:  Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.E.

Total Profit 60 Shares: +$721.41 
Total Investment = $606.65

Sold to Soon: 

Closing Price 8/9/2017: OMER $24.90 3.18 +14.64% : Omeros Corporation 

OMER reported results on 8/9/17. The company had better than expected sales for its only approved drug and claimed to making progress advancing OMS721 in Phase 3 trials. 

Omeros' (OMER) CEO Greg Demopulos on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.