Thursday, April 26, 2018

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: BHB, CPB, GIS, IBM

Economy

Coca Cola noted that it was paying 20% more in freight costs. Coke warns of pain from UK sugar tax, U.S. freight costs: Reuters I previously noted that General Mills was paying sharply increased freight costs in the spot market. 


A rising cost squeezing profit theme was also raised by Caterpillar in its earnings call. Caterpillar shares slide; Trump steel tariffs may boost costs | Reuters

Home prices surge to a near four-year high, Case-Shiller shows - MarketWatch I would look at that data as a glass three-quarters full. The increase in home prices is certainly a positive for existing home owners. It is a negative for first time home buyers. The rise in prices and the increase in mortgage rates will combine to make home purchases less affordable for those purchasers. 


Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year Highs



Trump's represented last Tuesday that the U.S. has "a very good chance of making a deal”  with China on Trade. Trump Says Mnuchin Going to China to Negotiate Trade in Days - Bloomberg

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Trump and Ronny Jackson

Dr. Ronny Jackson's main qualification for Veteran's Secretary was his effusive praise for Donald's health which was spoofed in a SNL skit: Trump Doctor Press Conference Cold Open - SNL - YouTube

After reports surfaced claiming that Jackson ran a toxic work environment, drank excessively and prescribed pills like candy, Trump claimed that he was being railroaded by a "vicious group of people" and that the Senate's vetting process for a cabinet secretary was "too ugly and too disgusting". Donald is describing himself when ascribing his personality traits to others. Among Washington politicians, Donald is rated #  1 IMO in the disgusting, ugly and vicious categories.  

The problems are that Jackson was not properly vetted by Trump and Trump will not admit to be wrong or making a mistake. 

Jackson was clearly unqualified for this job due to lack of experience before the misconduct allegations were made by 23 military employees who worked with Jackson. 

2012 watchdog report suggested removing VA nominee Ronny Jackson from White House role; Copy of Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson's 2012 assessment from the Navy's Medical Inspector General

Ronny Jackson Accused Of Drinking On Duty, Improper Prescriptions, Senator Says: NPR  


Ronny Jackson is unqualified as veterans affairs secretary - Vox

What is disturbing longer term is that Trump supporters actually believe that Donald has appointed the most qualified people. 

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Trump and North Korea


Trump Goes After ‘Sleepy Eyes Chuck Todd’ for Comments on North Korea Negotiations | Mediaite


Trump says that NK has agreed to denuclearization, yet another demonstrably false statement. Trump wrongly claims North Korea has agreed to ‘denuclearization’: PBSRoad to N. Korea's denuclearization is littered with failure - ABC News


NK did agree to suspend its nuclear and missile testing and to close a testing site that intelligence agencies believe is no longer useable. North Korean nuclear test site tunnel collapse reportedly kills 200 - Business Insider;
North Korea’s nuclear test site is largely unusable and risky: Chinese scientists - MarketWatchPunggye-ri Nuclear Test Site-Wikipedia 


China wants NK to close that site which is close to the border. NK probably does not need to conduct more nuclear bomb tests anyway. Their problem is not whether the bomb will work but delivering it.    


Trump Praises North Korea's Kim as ‘Very Honorable’ - Bloomberg Trump's state department just released a report accusing Kim's regime of “egregious human rights violations” including “extrajudicial killings; disappearances; arbitrary arrests and detentions; torture; political prison camps in which conditions were often harsh, life-threatening, and included forced and compulsory labor.”


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GOP Remade in Trump's Image


‘I Was Trump Before Trump Was Trump’ (GOP candidates are parroting Trump. Once of those candidates is Marsha Blackburn who is running for Tennessee's senate seat being vacated by Bob Corker (R) who refuses to campaign with her: RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Tennessee Senate - Blackburn vs. Bredesen


{I will digress now. Was there an Elvis before there was Elvis? One candidate would be Johnny Ray, who had the sound minus the lower body gyrations.  Johnnie Ray - Cry - YouTube (recorded 1951) Tony Bennett says he was the true father of Rock N' Roll. A more modern song, released in the early 1980s, Come on Eileen, references Ray. A modern version of that song, featuring Sara Bareilles and Jennifer Nettles, is lively: Sugarland and Sara Bareilles cover "Come On Eileen" - YouTube. And, I thought that Sara had the best performance of "I Don't Know How to Love Him" from the rock opera Jesus Christ Superstar, which she sung live: "I Don't Know How to Love Him": Sara Bareilles - Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert - YouTube And to digress further, Jennifer reminds me of Janis Joplin and needs to do more Rock N'Roll: Bon Jovi, Jennifer Nettles - Who Says You Can't Go Home - YouTube


Retiring Sen. Bob Corker won’t campaign against Democrat vying for his seat - The Washington Post (Corker praised Bredesen, a two-term governor, as “a very good mayor, a very good governor, a very good business person.”)


One of Trump's defenses to the pee incident allegation is that he did not stay overnight in Moscow. Reporters have found evidence that he did stay in Moscow. Flight Records Illuminate Mystery of Trump’s Moscow Nights -BloombergFlight records contradict Trump on 2013 Moscow trip: CNBC   


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The Hypocrisy of Sean Hannity


Hannity repeatedly and sharply criticized Obama for the foreclosures under his administration while Hannity sought to profit from those foreclosures: 


Sean Hannity linked to property empire aided by foreclosures, HUD: report - MarketWatch


Michael Cohen case shines light on Sean Hannity's property empire | Media | The Guardian


People Are Saying: Sean Hannity is a Serial Killer | April 18, 2018 Act 2 | Full Frontal on TBS - YouTube That is how Hannity reports his version of news.


Sean Hannity's real estate venture linked to fraudulent property dealer | Media | The Guardian

Washington Monthly | Sean Hannity and Fraudulently Foreclosed Homes

Sean Hannity's Real Estate Portfolio Raises Journalism Ethics Questions : NPR

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John Bolton presided over anti-Muslim think tank

The disgusting truth about hand dryers - MarketWatch ("Air hand dryers suck up fecal matter from the bathroom air and spray it onto users’ hands, a new study published by the American Society for Microbiology found."); Deposition of Bacteria and Bacterial Spores by Bathroom Hot Air Hand Dryers

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1. Small Ball:

A. Initiated Potential 20 Share Position in IBM-Bought 2 at $148.78  and 1 at $144.66 Using Commission Free Trade:


Quote: International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)


Subsequent to these purchases, IBM's Board approved a 4.7% increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.57 per share. 


Investors did not care for IBM's first quarter report which was released after the market closed on 4/17/18. 
IBM Board Approves Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend for the 23rd Consecutive Year


Closing Price 4/18/18: IBM $148.79 -$12.12 -7.53%

Closing Price 4/19/18: IBM #144.90 -$2.80 -1.90%

Chart: Bear Trend


In April 2013, IBM was trading at over $200.


IBM SEC Filings


IBM 2017 Annual Report


IBM Investor relations


Last Bond Offering: Prospectus


Analyzing IBM’s 6 Key Value Drivers - Market Realist


I have no particular insight into IBM other than that is difficult to teach an elephant to tap dance.


I am certain that I have not owned any shares for the past three decades.


From my admittedly ignorant perspective on matters relating to technology, IBM actually looks better now to me than at anytime within the past 20 years based on price, dividend yield and its entry into growing businesses.


I do not expect smooth sailing in the growth sectors (cloud computing,  analytics  and artificial intelligence.) It is just a positive that IBM is directing its substantial resources into those sectors. Time will tell whether IBM can become successful in growth areas given the level of competition.


Position: 3 shares with 20 as my limit


Average Cost Per share= $147.40


Dividend: Quarterly at $1.57 per share ($6.28 per share annually)


IBM Board Approves Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend 


IBM Board Approves Quarterly Cash Dividend; Authorizes $3 Billion for Stock Repurchase 


International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com


Dividend Yield: 4.26% at  $147.40


IBM Analyst Estimates (as of 4/17/18)

2018: $13.83
2019: $14.17

P/E on Consensus 2019 EPS at $147.4 = 10.4


Last Earnings Report Discussed:


IBM stock slammed as analysts highlight shrinking margins - MarketWatch


IBM Turnaround Questioned on Slow Growth of New Businesses - Bloomberg


Video: Slowing Cloud Growth Casts Shadow Over IBM's Turnaround-Bloomberg


Don't Buy IBM -- It Lacks Sustainable Competitive Advantage: Forbes


IBM defended at Morgan Stanley after Q1 margin miss-Seeking Alpha


Earnings ReportIBM Reports 2018 First-Quarter Results


Quotes from Release


"In the first quarter, the company generated net cash from operating activities of $4.6 billion, or $2.2 billion excluding Global Financing receivables. IBM’s free cash flow was $1.3 billion. IBM returned $2.2 billion to shareholders through $1.4 billion in dividends and $0.8 billion in gross share repurchases. 


The company continues to expect operating (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share of at least $13.80. The company expects GAAP diluted earnings per share of at least $11.58. Operating (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share exclude $2.22 per share of charges for amortization of purchased intangible assets, other acquisition-related charges and retirement-related charges as well as ongoing impacts from the enactment of U.S. Tax Reform.


IBM continues to expect free cash flow of approximately $12 billion, with a realization rate greater than 100 percent.

IBM ended the first quarter of 2018 with $13.2 billion of cash on hand. Debt totaled $46.4 billion, including Global Financing debt of $31.7 billion."




The 5% growth in revenues was currency related. Constant currency revenue was flat. Strategic Imperatives accounted for 47% of the revenue. Strategic imperatives include cloud, analytics, mobile, social, and security technologies.


SEC Filed Supplemental Presentation 

Investors are looking for higher, constant currency growth rates. How Is IBM's Cloud Business Positioned? - Market Realist   


In a report dated 4/18, the Morningstar analyst rated IBM at 3 stars with a $168 fair market value.


In a report dated 4/19/18, the S & P analyst assigned a 4 star rating with a $175 price target. After the first quarter report, the analyst reduced the 2018 estimate to $13.84 from $13.98, but kept the 2019 estimate at $14.2.


Argus has a buy rating and a $185 target price.


Argus and Morningstar reports are available to Schwab customers. 


Closing Price Yesterday 4/25/18: IBM $145.94 +$0.38 +0.26% 

B.  Bought 5 CPB at $39.81-Used Commission Free Trade:


Quote: Campbell Soup Co.  (CPB)


CPB Analyst Estimates


Chart: Bear Market Trend


Two Year History This Account:




Current Position: 25 Shares (may buy up to 50 shares using small ball rules)

Recent News


Campbell Completes Acquisition of Snyder's-Lance ("completed the acquisition of Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. for $50 per share in an all-cash transaction, which represents an enterprise value of approximately $6.1 billion."")


This acquisition increases snacks to about 47% from 32%: 




Snyder's brands include Snyder’s of HanoverLanceKettle BrandKETTLE chips, Cape Cod, Snack Factory Pretzel Crisps, Archway Cookies, Emerald, Tom's, Pop-Secret, and Late JulyCampbell becomes snack empire, as soup sales cool: USA Today


A number of those brands were acquired in through the purchase of Diamond Foods: 


Snyder’s-Lance Completes Acquisition of Diamond Foods, Inc.


Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Diamond Foods, Inc. (10/28/15 Press Release) 


The culinary nut business of Diamond Foods was sold. Snyder’s-Lance Announces Divestiture of Diamond of California® Culinary Nut Business 


I view this acquisition favorably given CPB's too heavy exposure to a declining soup business, but many investors view it as a combination of two struggling businesses and a pricy acquisition. (E.G. Campbell's Pricey Snyder's Deal May Land CEO in the Soup - BloombergKraft Heinz, Smucker & Campbell: Three Unappetizing Choices - Barron's) The Barron's article refers to a Credit Suisse analyst, Robert Moskow, who has an underperform rating and a $40 price target. Moskow argues that both Snyder and CPB are "struggling businesses", and CPB has a "poor track record for integrating acquisitions".  


Snyder's Lance Last Quarterly ReportQ/E 12/31/17


Snyder's had a high effective income tax rate before extraordinary items lowered the rate in 2017. "The effective income tax rate increased to 36.3% in 2015 from 35.3% in 2014". Page 22 10-K


Average Cost Per Share: $43.73


Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 ($1.4 annually)


Campbell Soup Company - Investor Center - Dividend History


Dividend Yield at TC = 3.2%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/10/18


Last Substantive Purchase DiscussionsItem # 2.B. (3/15/18 Post)


Last Sell DiscussionItem # 3 Sold 50+ CPB at $49.73+(11/20/17 Post)


I am in effect repurchasing that 50 share lot in small increments and at lower prices. 


Closing Price Yesterday 4/25/18: CPB $41.51 +$0.43 +1.05% 

C. ADDED 2 GIS at $43.33-Used Commission Free Trade:




Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS )


GIS Analyst Estimates ($3.08 in the current fiscal year and $3.18 in the next fiscal year; fiscal years end in May)


Chart: Bear Market Trend


GIS SEC Filings


Annual Report F/Y Ending on 5/28/17


Blue Buffalo Acquisition Financing:


Bonds: Prospectus


Stock: Prospectus (22,727 shares plus greenshoe at $44)


Current Position: 27 shares (may buy up to 100 shares using small ball rules)


Average Cost Per Share: $48.49


P/E at TC Using $3.18 for F/Y ending in May 2019:


Dividend: Quarterly at $.49 per share ($1.96 annually)


General Mills Quarterly Dividend Declared


Due to the Blue Buffalo acquisition, GIS has suspended dividend increases and share buybacks until further notice. I regard that action to be prudent. I do not expect a dividend increase prior to 2020. 


Dividend Yield at TC = 4.04%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/9/18


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at below $50

Last Substantive Purchase DiscussionItem # 3.A.  (3/25/18 Post)


Last Sell DiscussionItem #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade  (12/21/17 Post)


Last Earnings Report (previously discussed here) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Third Quarter ending on 2/25/2018


Closing Price Yesterday 4/25/18: GIS $44.04 -$0.33 -0.74% 

3. REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY:


A. Sold 100 out of 250 BHB at $29.55-Used Commission Free Trade:




I sold my highest cost cost lots.


Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)


Profit Snapshot: +$682.94




Most Recent Purchase: Item # 1.A. Bought 25 BHB in Fidelity Account at $27.66 (12/18/17 Post) (lot included in 100 shares sold)


Position after Pare: Average Cost Per Share Now at $14.5


The average cost per share was reduced from $17.79 to $14.5:



Remaining 150 Shares
I have not reinvested the dividend. 

Closing Price 4/25/18: BHB $29.75 -$0.42 -1.39% 

Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/18: 


"GAAP earnings increased to $7.8 million, or 50 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2018 from $4.2 million, or 29 cents per share, in the same period of 2017, primarily as a result of the merger expenses reflected in the previous year. Core earnings were up 21% to $8.1 million, or 52 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2018 compared to $6.2 million, or 43 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2017." 


NIM at 2.85% excluding accretion (3.01% in 2017 1st Q)

Efficiency at 60%
Return on assets 0.90%
Return on equity 9.01
Core return on tangible equity 13.72%
Net charge-offs annualized/average loans 0.07%
Total non-accruing loans/total loans 0.83% (NPL ratio)
Total non-performing assets/total assets 0.59% (NPA ratio) 


Overall, I was not impressed. 

The NIM is too low and declined Y-O-Y. I use the NIM number excluding purchase loan accretion income which is created by the accounting profession and only temporarily juices NIM. 


The charge-off ratio is excellent.


ROA and ROE are below average.  


There was a significant jump in the NPL and NPA ratios Y-O-Y. For the Q/E 3/31/17, the NPL and NPA ratios were at .25% and .19% respectively. The NPL ratio for the last quarter had jumped to .83%. 


The efficiency ratio is moving in the wrong direction after hitting 53.53% in the Q/E 9/30/17.  


Last Sell DiscussionItem 1.A. Sold 30 BHB at $29.42 (3/25/18 Post)-Item 1.A. Bought 30 BHB at $28.05 (12/18/17 Post)


3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

I am doing some light buying in 2025-2026 maturities where I can not acquire a weighted average YTM of 4+%.


A. Bought 1 Boston Properties Partnership 3.65% SU Bond Maturing on 2/1/26:




FINRA PAGE: Bonds Detail


Issuer: Operating Entity for  Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)


Boston Properties Announces Fourth Quarter 2017 Results

Boston Properties Announces First Quarter 2018 Results 

2017 Annual Report (debt summary starts at pages 94 and 154)


"On December 4, 2017, Boston Properties Limited Partnership completed a public offering of $850.0 million in aggregate principal amount of its 3.200% unsecured senior notes due 2025. The notes were priced at 99.757% of the principal amount to yield an effective rate (including financing fees) of approximately 3.350% per annum to maturity. ..." 


"The indenture relating to the unsecured senior notes contains certain financial restrictions and requirements, including (1) a leverage ratio not to exceed 60%, (2) a secured debt leverage ratio not to exceed 50%, (3) an interest coverage ratio of greater than 1.50, and (4) an unencumbered asset value of not less than 150% of unsecured debt. At December 31, 2017, Boston Properties Limited Partnership was in compliance with each of these financial restrictions and requirements." (page 154 Annual Report)


Credit Ratings:



Bought at a Total Cost of 97.986
YTM at TC Then at 3.952%
Current Yield at TC = 3.725%

I also bought two lower quality bonds with higher yields than this Boston Properties bond.


B. Bought 1 Discover Financial Services 3.375% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/26:




FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Discover Financial Services (DFS)

DFS Analyst Estimates

Discover Financial Services Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income of $387 Million or $0.99 Per Diluted Share

2017 Annual Report

Credit Ratings:


As a credit card issuer, and given its enormous debt load, DFS bonds can become riskier than implied by the current S & P BBB- rating during a recession. I consequently limit my exposure to small amounts. Discover Financial Services - Investor Relations - Debt Investor Info - Credit Ratings Summary


Moody's rates the DFS SU bonds at Ba1 positive outlook. I am more prone to agree with that high end junk bond rating.


Fitch has a BBB+ rating: Fitch Affirms Discover Financial Services at 'BBB+/F2'; Outlook Stable (9/8/17).


So there is a wide disparity in the three credit ratings that is somewhat unusual.


Issuer: Discover Financial Services (DFS)

DFS Analyst Estimates

Bought at a Total Cost of 92.934

YTM at TC Then at 4.414%
Current Yield at TC = 3.6316%

DFS is constantly selling debt. Many of those issuances are in relatively small amounts ("internotes") that consequently reduce their liquidity in the secondary market. This bond is a DFS internote with a principal amount of $3.528M. Anyone buying this bond would not want to be in a financial position requiring that the bond be sold prior to maturity.


C. Bought 1 Crown Castle International 3.7% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/26:




Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus Supplement

Issuer: Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI) 

CCI Analyst Estimates 
Crown Castle Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results, Raises Outlook for Full Year 2018 

Crown Castle Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common StockFinal Prospectus Supplement (7.765M shares priced at $108.52)


Crown Castle Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering ("priced its previously announced public offering of 3.150% Senior Notes due 2023 and 3.800% Senior Notes due 2028, in aggregate principal amounts of $750 million and $1.0 billion, respectively. The Senior Notes due 2023 will have an interest rate of 3.150% per annum and will be issued at a price equal to 99.630% of their face value to yield 3.224%. The Senior Notes due 2028 will have an interest rate of 3.800% per annum and will be issued at a price equal to 99.615% of their face value to yield 3.846%.") 


AT&T and Crown Castle Expand Strategic Relationship


Credit Ratings:

Bought at a Total Cost of 96.424
YTM at TC Then at 4.221%
Current Yield at TC = 3.8372%

Crown Castle is a REIT which is a disadvantage for its bond owners. It is also a company that has lots of debt that will need to be refinanced before this 2026 bond matures. So far, CCI has not had any trouble in selling bonds as noted above, where the company sold $1B in 3.8% SU bonds maturing in 2028. It is also worth noting that the company has been able to raise significant sums through public stock offerings.


A 4% weighted average yield on my fixed income investments would provide me with a substantial financial cushion. I want interest rates to go up even though that will cause a temporary decline in my currently owned bonds. Since I have maturities coming due weekly, I can take advantage of rising yields by extending the maturities or by simply buying similar short maturity CDs and bonds. 


See 2017 Annual Report (debt listed and discussed starting at page 74 which includes a lot of longer term secured debt

4. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

May Maturities:


MI = Monthly Interest

SU = Senior Unsecured Bond or Bonds

2 Bank of the West 1.45% CDs 5/1 (9 month CD)

1 Citigroup 1.75% SU 5/1/18 (bought 12/30/16)
4 Northeast Utilities 1.45% SU 5/1/18 (bought 2 on 12/20/17; 2 on 1/11/17)
2 Thermo Fisher 2.4% SU bonds  (early issuer Redemption-bought 4/3/18)
1 EPD 1.65% SU 5/7 (bought in 1/17)
2 JPM 1.625% SU 5/8 (bought 1/3/17)
2 Corning 1.5% SU 5/8 (bought 1/3/17)
2 Beal Bank 1.55% CDs 5/9 (1 month CD)
3 BP 1.375% SU 5/10 (3 separate purchases)
2 BNY Mellon 1.4% CDs 5/11 (5 month CD)
2 Bank of the West 1.45% CDs 5/14 (9 month CD)
2 Treasury 1% 5/15
2 Qualcomm 1.4% SU 5/18 ( bought 12/29/16)
1 Paccar 1.4% SU 5/18 (bought 12/27/16)
2 Bank of the West 1.45% CDs 5/21 (9 month CD)
4 American Express 1.55% SU 5/22 (bought 12/16; 2 in )
2 Compass Bank 1.4% CDs 5/29 (9 month CD)
3 Provident Ban Bank 1.35% CDs (MI) 5/25 (9 month CD)
1 Cadence Bank 1.5% CD 5/29 (6 month CD)
1 First Virginia 1.45% CD (MI) 5/29 (6 month CD)
2 Wells Fargo 1.25% CDs (MI) 5/29 (13 month CD)
1 Goldman Sachs Bank 1.4% CD 5/29 (7 month CD)
2 Citigroup 1.55% CDs 5/29 (4 month CD)
2 Hanmi Bank 1.35% (MI) CDs 5/30  (9 month CD)
2 New York Community BK 1.4% CDs 5/30 (9 month CD)
2 Franklin Synergy 1.3% CDs (MI) 5/30 (7 month CDs)
1 Treasury .875% 5/31
1 Treasury 1% 5/31

$54K


Most of those proceeds will be redeployed into short term CDs and bonds including treasuries. Around $10K will be used to buy intermediate term, investment grade corporate bonds, provided their yields continue to trend up. Up to $5K will be used to buy stocks in my small ball "buying programs" where my focus is on dividend paying securities that are already in a bear market. 


Maturities in June and July 2018 will be light. I have been buying more bonds maturing in 2019 and 2020 where the yields are meaningfully better.  

A. Bought 2 Mylan 2.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/7/19


FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Mylan N.V. (MYL) 


2017 Annual Report (debt listed and discussed starting at page 124)

5 Year Historical Results: 


Credit Ratings: 


Bought at a Total Cost of 99.557
YTM at TC Then at 2.892%
Current Yield at TC = 2.5111

Mylan and other generic manufacturers may soon be criminally charged  by the Justice Department for price fixing. Generic-Drug Companies to Face First Charges in U.S. Probe - Bloomberg I will not likely buy more Mylan bonds or extend the maturity when this bond matures in slightly more than one year from now. 


B. Bought 1 Bank of China 1.7% CD Maturing on 7/18/18:



C. Bought 2 Alexandria Real Estate 2.75% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/20:




FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) - MarketWatch


Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2017


Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of 90 Cents per Common Share ("Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE: ARE), an S&P 500 company, is an urban office real estate investment trust ("REIT") uniquely focused on collaborative life science and technology campuses in AAA innovation cluster locations, with a total market capitalization of $17.9 billion and an asset base in North America of 29.6 million SF as of December 31, 2017. The asset base in North America includes 22.0 million RSF of operating properties, including 1.7 million RSF of development and redevelopment of new Class A properties currently undergoing construction. Additionally, the asset base in North America includes 7.6 million SF of future development projects, including 1.6 million SF of near-term projects undergoing marketing for lease and pre-construction activities and 3.8 million SF of intermediate-term development projects.") 


Credit Ratings:




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.8

YTM at TC Then at 2.926%
Current Yield at TC = 2.755%

Previously, I have owned only an ARE preferred stock that has already been sold. Item # 1 Sold 50 AREPRE at $24.8-Regular IRA (4/5/2014 Post)-Item # 6 Bought 50 AREPRE at $23 Regular IRA (2/25/15 Post). That preferred stock has been called by the issuer. 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep"Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

9 comments:

  1. Thank u for your continued posting! But just had to compliment u on the comment below!

    "I have no particular insight into IBM other than that is difficult to teach an elephant to tap dance." FANTASTIC!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Two Harbors Investment Corp. Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire CYS Investments, Inc."

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180426005804/en/

    I have a small investment in CYS common shares. I last discussed a purchase here:

    Item # 1.B. Added 10 CYS at $6.51 (used commission free trade)
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_12.html


    I also own CYSPRA which I last discussed here:

    Item # 3.B. Bought 50 CYSPRA at $24.5- A Roth IRA Account:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/03/observations-and-sample-of-recent.html

    The press release states that Two Harbors will assume the preferred stocks.

    " In addition to the above consideration, Two Harbors would assume the existing notional $75 million in CYS 7.75% Series A cumulative redeemable preferred stock and $200 million in CYS 7.50% Series B cumulative redeemable preferred stock."

    TWO has two outstanding fixed coupon equity preferred stocks:

    Two Harbors Investment Corp. 7.25% Cum. Redeem. Pfd. Series C
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/two.pc

    Two Harbors Investment Corp. 7.625% Cum. Redeem. Pfd. Series B
    $24.78 -0.06 -0.24%
    Last Updated: Apr 26, 2018 10:08 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/two.pb

    CYSPRA has a 7.75% coupon: $24.57 +$0.32 +1.32%
    Last Updated: Apr 26, 2018 10:12 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cys.pa

    I will probably hold the equity preferred stock and sell the common shares at some point prior to the acquisition consummation.

    CYS Investments Inc. $7.24 +0.62 +9.29%
    Last Updated: Apr 26, 2018 at 10:34 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cys

    ReplyDelete
  3. RE: bathroom hand blowers

    I was always skeptical of those claims that the blowers were more sanitary than paper towels.

    I'm surprised it took them this long to do a study.

    I shake the water off my hands and pat them dry on my clothing.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The 10 year treasury yield hit a closing at 3.04% during the 2013 interest rate spike and closed at 3.03% yesterday. I mentioned that in a comment published yesterday.

    The Bond Ghouls may have had a parley around the campfire last night, traded horror stories about how the rise in rates have caused their portfolios to suffer meaningful negative total returns, howled at the moon a few times, and decided to defend that line in the sand since a breach would have likely caused an acceleration of the bleeding.

    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    2.981% -0.047%
    Last Updated: Apr 26, 2018 at 4:16 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

    AT & T had an awful report that caused a deserved swoon in its share price:

    $33.10 -$2.10 -5.97%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/t

    The stock established a new 52 week low and close with a yield exceeding 6%.

    DAY RANGE
    $32.47 - $33.70
    52 WEEK RANGE
    $32.47 - $40.06

    I was 12 shares into a possible 100 share buying program before today. I now own 30 shares, having made two purchases today using commission free trades.

    I also decided to limit my exposure to just 50 shares. The lowest price is not at $32.8. Total average cost per share for 30 shares is at $33.96. The first 12 shares were bought on 3/22 and 3/23, prior to the last ex dividend date which was on 4/9/18.

    AT & T is not viewed favorably here at HQ, though I will trade the stock from time to time.

    Item # 1.B. Bought 10 T at $35.42 and 2 at $34.66-Used Commission Free Trades:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_2.html

    I am focusing most of the small lot purchases on stocks whose yields are over 3% and where the chart looks awful with a clear bear market trend at the time of purchase.

    I did sell CYS today (see prior comment above) and eliminated AGNC as well since its book value per share plummeted in the first quarter and was below its current share price. I sold out at $19.03. I sold CYS at $7.33. Those two stocks are now removed from my small lot buying program list which I have been publishing here.

    AGNC Book Value Per Share as of $18.63, down from $19.69 as of $19.69:

    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/agnc-investment-agnc-earnings-miss-estimates-nii-up-yy-cm954091

    ReplyDelete
  5. First Hawaiian (FHB) has a positive first quarter earnings report.

    First Hawaiian Inc.
    $29.42 +$1.14 +4.03%
    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 10:15 a.m. EDT

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fhb

    Report:

    EPS at $.49, up from $.41 in the 2017 1st quarter

    Net interest margin ("NIM") was 3.13%, 2.99% and 3.00%, for the quarters ended March 31, 2018, December 31, 2017, and March 31, 2017, respectively.

    1.35% return on average total assets and 1.43% core return on average tangible assets

    11.02% return on average total equity and 18.40% core return on average tangible common equity

    48.1% efficiency ratio

    Total non-performing assets were $12.1 million, or 0.10%
    of total loans and leases and other real estate owned

    Net charge offs for the quarter ended March 31, 2018 were $4.6 million, or 0.15% of average loans and leases on an annualized basis

    https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/first-hawaiian-inc-reports-first-quarter-2018-financial-results-and-declares-dividend-20180426-01922

    Last Substantive Discussion here:


    Item # 1. A. Added 10 FHB at $28.4 and 5 shares at $27.7-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trades:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent.html

    I currently own 60+ shares in my Schwab account and 25+ in my Fidelity account, all acquired using commission free trades and both positions are restricted by small ball trading rules which requires the next purchases to be below the following prices:

    FHB: $27.2 (Fidelity)
    FHB: $27.51 (Schwab)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So much for the positive response to FHB's earnings report:

      First Hawaiian Inc.
      $28.18 -$0.10 -0.35%
      Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 2:34 p.m. EDT

      DAY RANGE
      $27.99 - $29.67

      I did not see anything in the conference call transcript that would rationally cause that intra-day change. Volume has ticked up and is all ready over the average volume. The rally was sold.

      VOLUME: 488.1K
      65 Day Avg. - 351.7K

      Delete
  6. I noticed a pop this morning in NRZ.

    New Residential Investment Corp (NRZ)
    $17.36 +0.42 +2.46%
    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 11:42 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nrz

    NRZ was ex dividend for its $.5 per share quarterly distribution on 3/29.

    The first quarter earnings report was released this morning:

    GAAP Net Income of $604 million, or $1.81 per diluted share
    Core Earnings of $195 million, or $0.58 per diluted share (consensus estimate at $.55)

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180427005340/en/

    I own shares as part of my small ball strategy.

    ++++

    GOV and SIR are ex dividend today. Both are owned as part of my small ball strategy and are two of the most disfavored equity REITs.

    GOV's dividend is $.43 per share. The closing price yesterday was $12.63. Adjusting yesterday's close for the dividend payment, the share are now trading up $.23 at $12.43:

    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 11:45 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gov

    SIR is currently up $.31 at $19.12 with the price adjustment for its $.51 per share quarterly dividend:

    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 11:46 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sir

    ReplyDelete
  7. Welltower (WELL), a recent small ball initiation, is responding favorably to its 1st quarter earnings report:

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/welltower-reports-first-quarter-2018-results-300636948.html

    Welltower Inc.
    $53.02 +$3.01 +6.02%
    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 12:29 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/well

    Equity REITs are rallying as the dip in interest rates continues from yesterday.

    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    2.96% -0.023%
    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 12:30 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

    Vanguard Real Estate ETF
    $76.24 +$1.14 +1.52%
    Last Updated: Apr 27, 2018 at 12:32 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq

    ReplyDelete
  8. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_30.html

    ReplyDelete