Monday, April 2, 2018

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: BRGPRA, DIR.UN:CA, RHHBY, T, TCPC

Economy:

Real personal consumption expenditures increased less than .1% in February. 


The personal savings rate was 3.4%. The savings rate fell to a 10 year low late last year and has been creeping back up in recent months. 

Personal Income and Outlays


The Atlanta FED wage growth computation hit a high of 3.9% in October 2016 and has been declining since that peak. The last reading was 2.9% growth. Wage Growth Tracker - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta I view this computation as more relevant than the BLS wage growth data since the Atlanta FED's method "is an estimate of the wage growth of continuously employed workers—the same worker's wage is measured in the current month and a year earlier." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  


Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | What’s Up with Wage Growth?

China imposes tariffs in response to U.S. steel, aluminum duties (Reuters) Tariffs of up to 25% will be imposed starting today on 128 products exported from the U.S. to China including frozen pork and wine. This was expected and is not new news.    

Over the weekend Trump threatened to terminate NAFTA unless Mexico does more to stem illegal immigration to the U.S. 

This kind of threat will appeal to the republican base, but will make a satisfactory NAFTA renegotiation more unlikely. Mexico will have a Presidential election on 7/1/18, and the leading candidate, Lopez Obrador, responded negatively to Trump's tweet. Mexico swinging against the establishment as presidential campaign starts: ReutersMexico's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador hits out at Trump: CNBC  I would think that it has now become politically toxic for Mexico's politicians to work out a deal acceptable to Donald. 

We asked 6 experts if Congress could block Trump from withdrawing from NAFTA - Vox

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Portfolio Management


With my commission free trades expiring in August, I am using them to buy small lots. 


The primary rules are that (1) the security is in a major downtrend or has failed to participate in the post election rally; (2) each additional buy has to be at a lower price than all others in the chain and (3) the income generation has to be higher than the S & P 500 average. 


While I have not calculated the weighted average yield for the buys made to date, I would estimate the number at 7% to 8% weighed down by non-REIT common stock selections (e.g. GIS, NVS, ONB, PG, XOM). 


The BDCs, MREITs, and equity REIT selections juice the weighted average yield number up. The equity REIT selections include several high yielding ones like GOV, LXP, OHI, SBRA, SIR, and SNR that are high risk and out-of-favor big time.  

Since I have added so many securities in these small lot "buying programs", I made a list that contains the current lowest price paid so far. Any new purchase would have to be at a price lower than that shown in the following snapshot: 




I have slowed down my short term bond and CD purchases and may redirect some proceeds to this small lot buying program. I am also waiting for somewhat higher short term CD rates. For CDs maturing in October 2018, the best rate is currently 1.85%, with the interest payment at maturity.   


My investment strategy is designed to generate a constant cash flow from maturing bonds and CDs, dividends and interest payments. I will then redirect the money received in accordance with my current risk/reward assessments, taking into account my investment objectives.  


In my Fidelity account, the following snapshots reflect the cash flow into that account on 4/2/18: 




I received $7K in bond redemption proceeds from 3 corporate bonds (Coca Cola, Medtronic, Stryker) and 1 U.S. treasury.  The corporate bonds were bought over a year ago. The yields to maturity on similar bonds, maturing in about 15 months from now, would be close to 100% higher than the yields on those maturing corporate bonds.  


The CD interest payments are made monthly. 


Since I am currently keeping almost no idle cash in my Fidelity Government MM fund, the monthly dividend was only $.12.  


The Hercules (1) and First American (2) bonds were bought several years ago. 


Bought 1 CoreLogic 7.55% Senior Bond Maturing 4/1/2028 at 84.95 (2/22/12 Post)


Item # 3 Bought 1 7.55% CoreLogic Senior Bond Maturing 4/1/2028 at 94.975 (4/29/11 Post)




I also own 2 in my Vanguard Taxable account bought at about the same time as the two referenced above.  




I thought that I sold the two CLGX 2028 bonds in my Vanguard account, but found them hiding in plain sight as still owned over the weekend. The 4 CLGX 2028 bonds generate $300 in annual income. 


Item # 2 Bought 1 Hercules 6.5% Junior Bond Maturing on 6/30/29 at 86 (6/24/11 Post)(current yield at 7.49% based on the 84 price; Bond Detail; now an Ashland Global Holdings (ASH) obligation, see page F-29 noting that $51M in principal amount was still outstanding) 


While I have good percentage unrealized gains in both bonds, they would be hard to sell primarily due to the issuer having redeemed most of the outstanding bonds. 


The First American bonds are now CoreLogic obligations. The last trade was on 2/28/18. I probably could sell them at 110, provided I placed a limit order repeatedly over a few weeks. I see no reason to make that effort now, particularly given that my current yield is at 8.32%. I have a long history trading that bond when it was the underlying bond in the $25 Trust Certificate PJS which has been redeemed by the call warrant owner. I have also previously sold the $1K par value bond when it was easier to sell.   


I realized $2,291.52 trading small PJS lots with this probably being the last round trip transaction: Item 4. Sold 50 PJS at $27.11 (6/8/15):Update For Bond And Equity Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 7/31/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha-Bought PJS In Roth IRA: An Exchange Traded Bond With A 7.55% Coupon On A $25 Par Value - South Gent | Seeking Alpha The lowest price paid for PJS was $7.2 (10/10/2008 Post).

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Trump's War on the Washington Post, Amazon and Jeff Bezos:

Trump hates Amazon -Axios

Trump reportedly wants to 'go after' Amazon by changing tax treatment


Contrary to Trump's statements, Amazon is collecting sales tax throughout the U.S. for its sales, though not for third party sellers.  Amazon to start collecting state sales taxes everywhere - Mar. 29, 2017
Fact-Checking Trump and the White House’s Amazon Claims - Bloomberg


Amazon did pay $957M in income taxes in 2017: Pages 23 and 64 of AMZN's 2017 Annual Report  


Is Amazon really ripping off the US Postal Service? - Vox 

Amazon contract with USPS: Fact-checking Trump's tweet about Amazon and the post office - CBS News (bottom line, the USPS is losing money due to its hefty pension and other retirement benefits, not the cost of delivering packages). 


There does need to be a change in the formula first adopted in 2007 that assigns only 5.5% of fixed costs to package deliveries. Any such change would raise the costs for all package shippers. 


Any such change would increase the rates to all online retailers using the USPS. President Trump, Here's Why The Postal Service Is Charging Amazon 'So Little': Forbes  


One reason is that Amazon is able to engage zone skipping for parcel shipments due to its enormous expenditures on logistics.  


I am confident that Donald has no idea about zone skipping logistics and how that impacts Amazon's cost of shipping and the USPS cost of providing the last mile of delivery. As the flame throwing Ann Coulter said a few days ago, Donald is a ‘shallow, lazy, ignoramus’


Trump hates Amazon because Bezos personally owns the Washington Post. 


By all accounts, Bezos does not interfere in that paper's reporting. The WP is the same now as it was during the Nixon Watergate scandal. 


Like Nixon, Trump wants to use Presidential power to punish those who chronicle his lies, expose his corruption, report on embarrassing matters relating to Trump's Administration, and highlight with hard facts his unfitness for the job. 


Saturday Tweets: 



Trump, citing no evidence, claims Amazon uses Washington Post as "lobbyist" - CBS NewsTrump Attacks Amazon Anew, Says `Post Office Scam' Must End - Bloomberg

The attacks on taking a toll on Amazon's stock price. 

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Republicans consider ‘balanced-budget amendment’ after adding more than $1 trillion to the deficit - The Washington Post


Exclusive: Under Trump, prosecutors fight reprieves for people facing deportation: Reuters


White House chaos jeopardizes war on ISIS, U.S. commanders warn


The percentage of republicans who believe Donald is honest have hovered near 80% in every poll that I have seen asking that question.


Judging a person's integrity and honesty has nothing to do with their political affiliation or ideology. It only requires knowledge of the facts and sufficient mental capacity to compare the false assertions with those facts.


Only 26% of Americans can name the three branches of government (33% could not name one), and 37% can not cite a single right protected by the First Amendment.


The Annenberg Public Policy Center-Americans Are Poorly Informed About Basic Constitutional Provisions


Knowledge about the second amendment is greater than awareness of the rights protected by the First. 


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1. Small Ball:

A. Added 5 RHHBY at $28.74:




Quote: Roche Holding AG ADR

Ordinary Shares Traded in Switzerland: Roche Holding AG (ROG:SWX)
1 ADR = .125 ordinary shares
Swiss Franc to US Dollar Rates

Recent Negative News Item:


Roche shares drop after deaths of patients taking Hemlibra: ReutersUPDATED: Hemophilia groups warned of 5 deaths among patients taking Roche’s big new blockbuster Hemlibra – Endpoints News


Roche - Pipeline


2017 Annual Report


The ADR price will reflect the ordinary shares priced in Swiss Francs (CHF) divided by 8 with the sum then converted into USDs (8 ADRs = 1 CHF priced ordinary share-divide )


The ADR will outperform the CHF priced shares when the CHF gains in value against the USD and will underperform when the CHF loses value.


CHF / USD Currency Chart. Swiss Franc to US Dollar Rates


Position Shortly after Purchase: Average Cost Per Share = $30.83 (65 shares with 60 of those receiving the 2018 annual dividend payments)




I waited until RHHBY went ex dividend for its annual distribution before purchasing this 5 share lot. The ex dividend date was 3/15 and I bought this lot on 3/16. 


Dividend History







The stock went ex dividend for its annual distribution on 3/15/18.

Interactive Chart: For the past five years, the shares have been bouncing about in a narrow range, mostly between $29 and $34 per share, with temporary movements above and below that range.


Harvesting the annual dividend and then selling the shares thereafter profitably has been my approach to this security. The goal now is to build the position to 100 shares and then to sell the highest cost shares profitably before the next annual ex dividend date.


The overall problem is Roche's dependence on Avastin, Herceptin and and Rituxan and investor concerns about competition for those drugs. The competition for Avastin is in newly approved therapies including MRK's Keytruda and BMY's Opdivo. Herceptin is facing generic competition in Europe and in the U.S. next year when the patent expires. FDA OKs Mylan's biosimilar of Roche cancer drug Herceptin: Reuters


Patent Expiration Impacts:




2017 Financials at pages 16-17.pdf


Last Purchase DiscussionItem #3.A. Bought 10 RHHBY at $28.85  (11/13/17 Post)


Last Sell Discussions:


 Item # 3.B. Sold 30 RHHBY  at $33.25 (6/7/17 Post)(profit = $178.87)


Item # 3.A. Sold 100 RHHBY at $31.61 (4/8/17 Post)


Trading Profits 2015 to Date: $383.61 


Last Earnings ReportRoche reports good results in 2017



Drug Sales:



Diagnostic Division:





B. Bought 10 T at $35.42 and 2 at $34.66-Used Commission Free Trades:






Quote: AT&T Inc.  (T)

AT&T Inc. Analyst Estimates

Investor Relations | AT&T


Chart: Uninspiring and a Bearish Trend


AT & T has what I would call easily identifiable problems. Capital and labor costs are high while its wireline business remains in a long term secular decline and its wireless business faces significant and intense competition. Those items do not mix well.


At the time of my purchase, the stock was trading below its 200, 100 and 50 day SMA lines. The 200 day SMA line was at $37.01.


Dividend: Quarterly at $.5 per share, recently raised from $.49


AT&T Inc. Dividends


Dividend Yield at $35.29 Average Cost Per Share (12 shares): 5.67%


I am restarting a "ten share buying program". My total position is currently 12 shares.
 I will go up to 50 shares. I will average down in small lots until hitting 50 shares or I may just buy buy 38 shares in one order.  

My last "10 share buying program" started with a 10 share buy at $33.51 (10/25/17) that was sold after collecting one dividend at $37.77 Item # 1.E. Sold 10 T at $37.77 (1/28/18 Post)-Item # 1.A.  Bought 10 Shares of AT & T at $33.55 (10/31/17 Post)


I did not miss a quarterly dividend by selling the ten share lot on 1/22/18 and then buying it back on 3/22/18. 


AT&T Declares Quarterly Dividend 


Of course, the dollar amounts are irrelevant but that is the point also. 


In two other accounts, I sold a 50 share lot at $37.36 and a 30 share lot at $36.41 last year. I am engaged in a dividend harvesting strategy for AT &T shares and no longer take 100+ share positions. 


Whenever I buy, I am hoping to hold the shares briefly, sell at a profit and to collect one or more quarterly dividends.


While many individual investors focus on the dividend, the history of dividend increases and the current yield, AT & T has significantly underperformed SPY over the past several years on a total return basis. Starting on 1/3/12 through 3/26/18, the total return with dividends reinvested was 57.94% compared to SPY at 129.65%. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel 

I highlighted this point in an old post where I discussed buying a small lot that was subsequently sold. Bought Back In An IRA AT & T At $32.52 In The Context Of A Total Return Investment Strategy - South Gent | Seeking Alpha That 30 share lot was bought 7+ years after I sold a 30 share lot in that account at $38.33.


My last somewhat serious T position was sold on 11/2/2010:




Those lots were sold at $28.95+.


Last Earnings ReportAT&T Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results


Revenues declined .4% Y-O-Y in the 4th quarter. Wireless revenue fell 2.5% from the 2016 4th quarter. International revenue grew by 16%.




Free Cash Flow:




AT & T expects the lower corporate tax rate to boost 2018 E.P.S. by $.45. S & P believes that tax reform will increase cash flow by about $3B this year.


Subsequent to these purchases, HSBC upgraded to a buy.


The best analyst report available to me is from Argus, based on the information content rather than the analyst opinion. Argus has a buy rating and a $48 price target which I view as optimistic.


S & P gives T a four star rating with a $43 price target based on 2/1/18 analyst report. 


I own several AT & T senior unsecured bonds.


C. Bought 20 of the BDC TCPC at $13.95-Used Commission Free Trade:




This is an initiation of my "buying program" that will be in 20 lot increments with each additional purchase having to be at the lowest price. This was my first ever TCPC purchase. On my day of purchase (3/27/18), the 52 week range was between $13.72 and $17.47. The shares closed at $13.99 on 3/27, down $.15 or 1.06%.


Recently Passed Spending Bill: The recently passed $1.3 trillion spending bill included language that will allow BDCs to increase leverage up to two times total debt to equity. The prior limit was 1:1. On average, BDCs currently have a .71 leverage ratio. An analyst at  Keefe Bruyette and Woods believes that the biggest beneficiaries will include the following BDCs that are currently owned by me and recently discussed here: Ares Capital (ARCC), TCP Capital (discussed here); FS Investment (FSIC) and PennantPark Floating Rate (PFLT).


Just as a reminder, leverage works both ways. Some cynics would argue that this change will simply give the BDCs who utilize additional leverage more rope to hang themselves.


Chart: UGLY. At the time of purchase, the shares were trading below the 50, 100 and 200 day SMA lines. The 200 day line was then at $15.84.


QUOTE:  TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC)


SEC Filings


2017 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 22 and ends at page 51; list of investments starts at page 76)


Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)


Dividend Yield at $13.95 = 10.32%


Last Ex Dividend: 3/15/18 (before my purchase)


Net Asset Value Per Share History (for a BDC the trend is stable):


12/31/17:   $14.8

12/31/16:   $14.91
12/31/15:   $14.78 Earnings Release
12/31/14:   $15.43
12/31/13:   $15.18 Earnings Release
12/31/12    $14.71 Earnings Release
IPO on 4/3/12 at $14.75 Prospectus

Discount to Net Asset Value Per Share = -5.74% at $13.95 and NAV of $14.8


Last Earnings Report:


TCP Capital Corp. Announces 2017 Financial Results Including Fourth Quarter Net Investment Income of $.41 per share


This BDC earned more than its quarterly dividend payment in the 2017 4th quarter: 


"Net investment income after excise taxes for the three months ended December 31, 2017 was approximately $29.9 million, or $0.51 per share, before incentive compensation. Net investment income after excise taxes and incentive compensation was $23.9 million, or $0.41 per share."


"As of December 31, 2017, the weighted average annual effective yield of our debt portfolio was approximately 11.0% . . As of December 31, 2017, approximately 89% of our debt portfolio at fair value had floating interest rates. As of December 31, 2017, we had one debt investment on non-accrual status, representing zero percent of the portfolio at fair value."


Recent News:


TCP Capital Corp. Prices $50 Million Of 4.125% Notes Due 2022 (11/1/17)Prospectus


TCP Capital Corp. Prices $125 Million Of 4.125% Notes Due 2022 (8/4/2017)


TCP Capital Corp. Announces Pricing Of Public Offering Of Common Shares (4/20/17)("priced the public offering of 5,000,000 shares of its common stock at $16.84 per share for total gross proceeds of approximately $84.2 million. The Company has granted the underwriters an option for 30 days to purchase up to an additional 750,000 shares of common stock.")


3.  Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:


A. Bought Back 50 BRGPRA at $24.65-Used Commission Free Trade:




Quote: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc. 8.25% Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock


Issuer: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG)

Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results

Prospectus

Par Value: $25
Coupon: 8.25%
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/22/18 (before purchase)
Capital Structure Placement: Junior to all bond and senior only to common stock
Optional Redemption Date: ON OR AFTER 10/21/20
Yield at $24.65: 8.37%
Dividend Stopper Clause: Yes
52 Week Range At Time of Purchase: $24.53-$27

I discussed this preferred stock in more detail in Item # 1 to this post: Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 11/19/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


Last Sells:


Item # 6.A. Sold BRGPRA at $26.58  (10/19/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $93.28)

Item # 4 Sold 50 BRGPRA at $26.26 (10/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$139.64)

Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks


I recently discussed this REIT when I made a small ball buy of the common shares: Item # 2.A. Bought 50 BRG at $7.6  (2/12/18 Post)Item 3.D. Added 10 BRG at $7.19 (2/19/18 Post


The Dividend Stopper Clause is the legal mechanism that enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash compared to the common shareholders. The preferred dividend can not be deferred for as long as cash dividends are paid to common stockholders or cash is used to buy back stock.   




As previously discussed, BRG slashed its common dividend as part of its management internalization process. That is fine with the preferred shareholders whose dividend can not be cut. An unfavorable situation for the preferred shareholder occurs when the combined preferred and common share dividends exceed funds available for distribution. 


A disadvantage for REIT fixed coupon investors, both the preferred stock and bond owners, is that money is flying out the door to common shareholders. The fixed coupon investors want a cash cushion to protect their distributions, which is all that they have since neither the preferred shareholder nor the bond owner have an equity interest in the business. 


I will remain very light in fixed coupon equity preferred stocks due to their inherent interest rate risks that was last highlighted during the 2013 interest rate spike.  

    
BRGPRA Trading Profits to Date: $231.92
BRG Trading Profits to Date: +$963.77

B. SOLD 300 of 1,000 Units of DIR.UN.CA at C$9.48:




Profit Snapshot: +C$389




Quote: Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto)

Website: Dream Industrial REIT

USD Priced Ordinary Shares Traded on the dark U.S. Grey Market: DREUF


Website: Dream Industrial REIT

Portfolio | Dream Industrial REIT

I am somewhat concerned that Donald will eventually take steps that would materially harm Canada's economy. 


Distributions: Monthly at C$.05833 per unit (C$.70 annually)


Dream Industrial REIT March 2018 Monthly Distribution


Last Purchase Discussions:


Item #2.A. Bought 100 DIR.UN:CA at C$8.75 (11/30/17 Post)


Item # 3 Bought 100 DIR.UN:CA at C$8.05-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 5/19/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


I saw some potential advantage to buying CADs with the proceeds and to sell after the CAD has fallen in value against the USD.


The CAD/USD had fallen from .8156 (2/1/18) to about .776 when I sold this security.  CAD/ USD Chart The CAD's decline against the USD may have bottomed near .764.


The Canadian dollar purchase price and sales proceeds paid in CADs are assigned a USD value for tax purposes. I do not pay federal income taxes on a CAD profit, but on a USD profit even though I used CADs to pay for the purchase and received CADs when I sold.


The general idea is to lower my USD tax profit by selling profitably in CADs after the CAD has fallen against the USD and potentially making a profit on converting CADs to USDs at a later and more opportune time.


Last Earnings Report:  



Dream Industrial REIT Reports Strong 2017 Financial Results, 140 bps Improvement in Occupancy Year-Over-Year and Successful Expansion Into U.S. Class A Industrial Market

4. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:


A. Bought 1 Treasury 1% Coupon Maturing on 9/15/18:

YTM = 1.91%



I now own 3 bonds.


B. Bought 2 Starbucks 2% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/5/18




Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer:  Starbucks Corp.  (SBUX) 

SBUX Analyst Estimates 
Starbucks Reports Record Q1 Fiscal 2018 Results 
SEC Filings
2017 Annual Report

February 2018 Bond Offering: Prospectus



Credit Ratings: 



Fitch Rates Starbucks' $1.6B Issuance 'A-'; Outlook Stable (2/26/18)


Bought at a Total Cost of 99.850

YTM at TC Then at 2.224%
Current Yield at TC = 2.003%

The bond provides me with a higher YTM and current yield than a treasury maturing 10 days later as shown below.  


3. Bought 1 Treasury 1.25% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/18

YTM = 2.034%
Current Yield = 1.2568



This is what the Schwab order book looked like when I place this order. I screened only for 1 bond purchase prices: 




The number 1 placed before "U.S.  Treasury 1.25%" means that I bought a bond in Schwab's inventory. Normally, the zero coupon treasury will have a higher YTM than fixed coupon treasuries since no current interest is paid. That is not the case for the zero maturing on 12/6/18 which has a lower YTM than all of the fixed coupon treasuries shown in the preceding snapshot. 


I now own 6 bonds. 

5. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy

A. Bought Back 2 Old Republic 3.875% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/26/26



I previously eliminated my 2 bond position at 101.074: Item # 3.B. (12/30/17 Post) 

I would attribute the entire price decline to the rise in interest rates rather than to any material change in ORI's credit risk. 

FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail


Credit Ratings: 


Bought at a Total Cost of 98.488
YTM at TC Then at 4.088%
Current Yield at 3.9345%

B. Bought 2 Kroger 2.8% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/1/22:




FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail

This bond was offered in July 2017: Prospectus

Credit Ratings:




Issuer:  Kroger Co. (KR)

KR Analyst Estimates
Earnings Release for the the Q/E 2/3/18 (4th Fiscal Quarter/End of F/Y)
Earnings Release for the Q/E 11/4/17 (F/Y Third Quarter)

Bought at a Total Cost of 97.499

YTM at TC Then at 3.422%
Current Yield at TC= 2.8718%

I have two 2% Kroger SU bonds maturing on 1/15/2019. BondDetail


DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep"Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.

13 comments:

  1. I had to jump start my 1987 Mercedes recently. I did not want to fool around with jumper cables so I went to Amazon for a jump starter that did not require another car.

    I ordered this neat little gadget, paying $44.99.

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B076PR52Z7/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

    It is slightly larger than an IPhone and charges up like one. The car kick off instantly on the first try. It can also be used to charge phones, IPADs, etc. and can be used as a flashlight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. South Gent,

      We just got one today as well. I want to use it to replace the one we bought a few years ago.

      https://www.amazon.com/Wagan-900-Battery-Jumper-Compressor/dp/B00167TYHQ

      Delete
  2. If anyone sees Donald taking credit for today's market action, and he deserves all of the credit, please let me know.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    23,371.31 -731.80 (-3.04%)
    As of 2:06PM EDT.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Idiocracy (2006)-now available on Starz
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/

    Clip:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N9nVLXMhPc

    The S & P 500 closed at 2,581.88, a few points below its 200 day SMA line of 2,589+ using a YF 1 year chart. There was a recovery late in the session off the intra-day low of 2,553.8.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-01/asian-stocks-set-for-muted-start-to-second-quarter-markets-wrap

    The VIX rose 18.28% to close at 23.82.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix

    Some pundits ascribe the loss today to China's imposition of tariffs.

    Possibly the Stock Jocks missed the reports over the past couple of weeks where China said that it would do exactly what it did today.

    Or perhaps, the Stock Jocks thought China was just kidding around and would tremble when confronted by Donald's steel and aluminum tariffs and bow down to him in an expression of subservience like some modern day Chinese Emperor. China will match Donald's tariffs.

    I would ascribe the decline to Donald's weekend tweets, particularly the ones involving Amazon and NAFTA.

    As I explained in this post, Donald is doing whatever he can to make any revised NAFTA agreement more difficult and politically toxic in an election year, thereby increasing the odds that he will throw a temper tantrum around 5:00 A.M. one morning and tweet a termination of that trade agreement to the rousing applause of the True Believers. Donald is just being strong when he does such things or so I am told.

    The attacks on Amazon illustrate Donald's desire to use the power of the presidency for unlawful purposes.

    In Amazon's case, Trump wants to punish Bezos for the reporting of the Washington Post. Virtually every statement made by Donald about Amazon is either false or misleading but that is what Donald does whenever he speaks or writes words. 80% of republicans view him as honest.

    Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
    $1,371.99 -$75.35 (-5.21%)

    My bonds are holding up well and providing some upside during this period of market turbulence.

    The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed up .1% but declined into the close as stocks rallied.

    SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
    $127.26 +$1.47 +$1.17%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gld

    The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 205.99 points to close at 10,190.57. It is my understanding that the Dow Theory Sell Signal requires a close below 10,136.61. That indicator is followed by a lot of people and could easily cause an acceleration of losses into a close when it becomes clear that this level will be breached to the downside.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-theory-sell-signal-is-now-just-one-step-away-from-being-triggered-2018-03-24

    ReplyDelete
  4. CNBC is reporting that WMT is looking at acquiring PillPack:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/walmart-buying-pillpack-online-pharmacy-sources.html

    The BDC TriplePoint Venture Growth (TPVG) has a position in PillPack consisting of a $5M loan (page 91 10-K) and 28,297 common shares valued at $55K (page 92)

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580345/000156459018005312/tpvg-10k_20171231.htm

    If WMT acquires PillPack, the loan will be paid off and there is insufficient information to know common stock value.

    +++
    I recently eliminated my Intel position. While I knew that Apple would likely quit using Intel chips, I had no idea when that might happen and consequently the decision to sell my remaining shares was not based on that eventuality.

    Last Lot Sold at $52.29
    Item # 1
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 Post
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2018-04-02T08:00:00-05:00

    Intel:
    $48.92 -$3.16 -$6.07%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/intc

    Bloomberg reported that Apple will start using its own chips in MACs, replacing the ones from Intel, starting in 2020:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/apple-is-said-to-plan-move-from-intel-to-own-mac-chips-from-2020

    ReplyDelete
  5. SG
    I would appreciate your overall thoughts on investing in insurance stocks ( US and Canada) specifically how do you think the steady rise in interest rates will effect them. The conventional wisdom is they will make more money on the spread, however wonder if the yield spread actually is hurting them
    Thank you in advance

    ReplyDelete
  6. John: At the moment, I do not own any insurance stocks.

    The consensus opinion is that a rise in interest rates is a positive for insurance companies and that is correct IMO on a net basis.

    The PowerShares KBW Insurance ETF (KBWI), which includes property and casualty insurance companies, had a 2013 total return of 55.64% based on NAV.

    A rise in interest rates is a mixed bag for them.

    One negative is that a rise in interest rates will cause the value of existing bond holdings to go down in value. The ability to harvest profits from those holdings will diminish as interest rates rise.

    The flip side is that these companies have bonds maturing all of the time and can buy with the proceeds bonds with higher coupons. And, they have premiums being paid continually that can be invested in higher yielding bonds.

    Investors will look at loss experiences as well which is vary from company to company. That would be the loss ratio
    which takes the total losses incurred (paid and reserved) in claims including adjustment expenses divided by total premiums earned. The question here is how good is the underwriting over time.

    There can also be specific products that will be impacted by interest rates. For example, the long term low interest rate cycle could result in losses or lower returns for vintage products that guarantee a particular investment return much higher than the insurance company can earn currently. I am referring to annuities.

    I do not regard the insurance business as an interest rate spread business like the regional banks or MREITs. The insurance companies simply want to earn more from their large bond investments. In addition their short term capital can earn more as short term rates rise.

    ReplyDelete
  7. The market received a lift immediately after Bloomberg reported that no anti-Amazon measures were currently under consideration by the Trump administration.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/trump-keeps-heat-on-amazon-over-postal-deal-as-stock-languishes

    That is not the end of the matter.

    After the market closed, Trump proposed a list of China's exports that would be subject to tariffs. This was expected.

    There will be a period for public comment before those additional $50B in annual tariffs are imposed by the U.S. It looks like the time for implementation would be in late May or early June.

    I would expect China to retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. products soon thereafter, though it remains to be seen whether the dollar value will match the $50B in U.S. tariffs contemplated by Trump.

    The list can be found here starting at page 14:

    https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/301FRN.pdf

    The NAFTA negotiations will likely be coming to a conclusion around the same time. Trump told Mexico and Canada that he wants a preliminary agreement by mid-April even though the negotiators "have completed work on six chapters, or subject areas, so far, with about 24 still in progress."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/trump-is-said-to-push-for-preliminary-nafta-deal-by-mid-april

    Donald issued more threats today related to NAFTA and aid to Honduras:

    “The big Caravan of People from Honduras, now coming across Mexico and heading to our “Weak Laws” Border, had better be stopped before it gets there, Cash cow NAFTA is in play, as is foreign aid to Honduras and the countries that allow this to happen. Congress MUST ACT NOW!”

    The so called "Caravan" has about 1000 people. Some of the protestors may apply for political asylum or seek to cross the border illegally.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amberjamieson/stop-the-caravan-conspiracies?utm_term=.bcJrQj6Z7#.hrz1pG5ZE

    http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-migrant-caravan-20180403-story.html

    Trump is also using the "big caravan" as an excuse to send the military to the border. However, someone needs to inform the Know Nothing that the military is barred by law from performing domestic law enforcement related activities. It may be possible to temporarily deploy the national guard. There is no indication that calling up the guard, who are not trained in border security, will be anything other than a show for Trump's True Believers.

    Trump saw some banner headlines about this small annual caravan on Fox and Friends and has latched onto it as red meat to throw to the True Believers, particularly after he was publicly criticized by the bombastic media personality Ann Coulter for not keeping his campaign promise to build the wall.

    Coulter said that Trump was shallow, lazy and an ignoramus.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/979317518270717953

    ReplyDelete
  8. The Stock Jocks are in a state of shock and bewilderment that China will retaliate with its own tariffs against U.S. exports to it.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-threatens-us-cars-planes-and-soybeans-with-tariffs-in-response-to-trump-2018-04-04

    China's Ministry of Commerce said the import value of the goods on China's tariff list was US$50 billion or the same dollar amount as Donald wants to impose on China's imports to the U.S.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-charts-that-show-how-chinas-response-to-us-tariffs-is-rattling-markets-2018-04-04

    ReplyDelete
  9. The media personality Larry Kudlow, who is Trump's chief economic advisor now, has assured the Stock Jocks that a pot of gold will be waiting for the U.S. when this little trade flair up with China is over. Trump, Larry and Wilbur Ross will lead us to economic nirvana, just around the corner.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kudlow-sees-pot-of-gold-resulting-from-us-china-trade-dispute-2018-04-04

    Stocks went into a rally mode shortly after those comments:

    S&P 500 Index
    2,612.91 -1.54 -0.06%
    Last Updated: Apr 4, 2018 at 12:18 p.m. EDT

    DAY RANGE

    2,573.61 - 2,615.54

    ReplyDelete
  10. I want Larry Kudlow to deliver "my pot of gold" at the "end of the rainbow" to me personally.

    Apparently, the Stock Jocks bought the line that everything will be okay and will even be better once Larry, Wilber and Donald bring the Chinese to their senses.

    I hope that Wilber does not fall asleep during the negotiations and drool on his tie.

    So when are the negotiations to avert a trade war scheduled? I may have missed that in today's feel good pep talks.

    S&P 500 Index
    2,644.69 + 30.24 +1.16%
    DAY'S RANGE
    2,573.61 - 2,649.86

    The Bond Ghouls managed to take the ten year yield down about .01% when the world was coming to an end this morning and then decided to take the yield up .025%. They might as well have stayed in bed.

    Trump did soften a key demand in the NAFTA negotiations:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/trump-is-said-to-soften-key-nafta-demand-on-regional-car-content-jflhpwzh

    The CAD did trend slightly up against the USD today.

    CAD/USD
    0.7831
    Last Updated: Apr 4, 2018 at 6:03 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/cadusd

    The CAD/USD was at .779 early in the morning.

    The VIX has another wild day:

    CBOE Volatility Index
    20.06 -1.04 -4.93%

    DAY'S RANGE
    19.86 - 24.51

    ReplyDelete
  11. BRGPRA: I did not discuss some details about this preferred stock that are unusual. I did discuss some of those features in Item # 1 to this 2015 post:

    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4563716-update-exchange-traded-bond-preferred-stock-basket-strategy-11-19-15

    I have sold the lot discussed in that post with the sell discussion linked in this post.

    Unless the security is redeemed, the annual dividend increases at a 2% rate after 10/21/22, but can not exceed 14%.

    Quote from S-23 of the Prospectus:

    "Commencing October 21, 2022, we will pay cumulative cash dividends at an annual dividend rate of the Initial Rate increased by 2.0% of the liquidation preference per annum, which will increase by an additional 2.0% of the liquidation preference per annum on each subsequent anniversary thereafter, subject to a maximum annual dividend rate of 14.0%."

    It is close to a sure thing that I will sell my last 50 share lot purchase long before 2022 arrives.

    This kind of provision can serve to create a maturity date in a security that would otherwise be perpetual. That is, to avoid the coupon bump, the issuer may elect to redeem at par value with the usual caveats (e.g. financial wherewithal to do so and financially advantageous to redeem and refinance at a lower rate)

    ReplyDelete
  12. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_5.html

    ReplyDelete