You Won't Believe How Many Americans Have No Retirement Savings; Report for Financial Services Foundation
The debt is still out of control - The Washington Post (opinion column written by Robert Samuelson)
The debt is still out of control - The Washington Post (opinion column written by Robert Samuelson)
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
I would not base a recession forecast on consumer survey data.
It’s time to ‘dismount’ from this stock-market rodeo, says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson - MarketWatch
It’s time to ‘dismount’ from this stock-market rodeo, says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson - MarketWatch
These stocks can be the next blowups on China slowdown after Caterpillar and Nvidia
As China, U.S. resume trade talks, few indications that a breakthrough is likely - MarketWatch
China responds to US indictment against Huawei
Apple's IPhone sales declined 27% in the 2018 4th quarter. Earnings did beat the consensus estimate by 1 cent per share. Revenues declined 5% from the year ago quarter. Apple Reports First Quarter Results
So far today, Apple is up about 5% in pre-market trading. This suggests that some investors view the report and/or the guidance to be less bad than previously anticipated by them. While earnings per share numbers can be manipulated by large share buybacks, net income will be tied to profit margins and revenues. A persistent decline in revenues will result in lower net income (e.g. IBM) but EPS can grow due to share buybacks and other factors like taxes that do not reflect underlying fundamentals of the business.
For the quarter, Apple's net income was reported at $19.965B, down from $20.065B in the year ago quarter. The diluted share count decreased to 4.773+B from 5.1577+B.
I do not share the market's enthusiasm for this report.
In another development, BNP Paribas is selling its remaining 24.9 million shares in First Hawaiian (FHB). First Hawaiian, Inc. Announces Pricing of Secondary Common Stock Offering BNP had at one time a majority stake and has been selling its position over the past year or so. Today's offering removes this overhang. The BNP position after FHB's IPO was at approximately 62%. FHB 2017 Annual Report Page 3
As China, U.S. resume trade talks, few indications that a breakthrough is likely - MarketWatch
China responds to US indictment against Huawei
Apple's IPhone sales declined 27% in the 2018 4th quarter. Earnings did beat the consensus estimate by 1 cent per share. Revenues declined 5% from the year ago quarter. Apple Reports First Quarter Results
So far today, Apple is up about 5% in pre-market trading. This suggests that some investors view the report and/or the guidance to be less bad than previously anticipated by them. While earnings per share numbers can be manipulated by large share buybacks, net income will be tied to profit margins and revenues. A persistent decline in revenues will result in lower net income (e.g. IBM) but EPS can grow due to share buybacks and other factors like taxes that do not reflect underlying fundamentals of the business.
For the quarter, Apple's net income was reported at $19.965B, down from $20.065B in the year ago quarter. The diluted share count decreased to 4.773+B from 5.1577+B.
I do not share the market's enthusiasm for this report.
In another development, BNP Paribas is selling its remaining 24.9 million shares in First Hawaiian (FHB). First Hawaiian, Inc. Announces Pricing of Secondary Common Stock Offering BNP had at one time a majority stake and has been selling its position over the past year or so. Today's offering removes this overhang. The BNP position after FHB's IPO was at approximately 62%. FHB 2017 Annual Report Page 3
++++++
Trump:
On North Korea and Iran, Intelligence Chiefs Contradict Trump - The New York Times Some people can not live in our President's reality creations.
One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
For example:
Trump advisers lied over and over again, Mueller says. The question is, why?
On North Korea and Iran, Intelligence Chiefs Contradict Trump - The New York Times Some people can not live in our President's reality creations.
One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
For example:
Trump advisers lied over and over again, Mueller says. The question is, why?
If this is true, what does it say about Trump's intelligence. Trump Thought Firing Flynn Would End ‘Russia Thing,’ Chris Christie Writes in Book
Trump touts proposed Bible literacy classes in state schools
2 years into Trump's presidency, a deficit in confidence across government - ABC News 56% of registered voters stated they will "definitely" not vote for Trump in 2020. That is similar to a recent poll which found that 57% of voters would definitely not support Trump. 57 percent of voters say they won’t support Trump in 2020 | PBS NewsHour
Analysis: A big warning sign for Trump’s 2020 reelection effort in this new poll
If the economy falters leading up to the 2020 election, and Trump is the republican nominee, the Democrats will gain more seats in the House and will probably take control over the senate, possibly with 60 or more votes.
In retrospect, allowing the Russ Limbaugh, Ann Colter, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham wing take over the GOP will prove to a short lived phenomenon.
2 years into Trump's presidency, a deficit in confidence across government - ABC News 56% of registered voters stated they will "definitely" not vote for Trump in 2020. That is similar to a recent poll which found that 57% of voters would definitely not support Trump. 57 percent of voters say they won’t support Trump in 2020 | PBS NewsHour
Analysis: A big warning sign for Trump’s 2020 reelection effort in this new poll
If the economy falters leading up to the 2020 election, and Trump is the republican nominee, the Democrats will gain more seats in the House and will probably take control over the senate, possibly with 60 or more votes.
In retrospect, allowing the Russ Limbaugh, Ann Colter, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham wing take over the GOP will prove to a short lived phenomenon.
+++++
1. No Stock or Stock ETF Purchases-
Genealogical Research:
Since I have no stock purchases to discuss, I will instead make some general observations about the genealogical research that has consumed my free time over the past two weeks.
I am using Ancestry.com which has an abundance of source material.
When a new ancestor is added, Ancestry will frequently suggest a potential mother or father.
Those suggestions are crowd sourced for the most part and many will be based on a solid foundation of evidence while others will be properly characterized as a reality creations.
Once one person creates a lineage that has no factual foundation, probably for the first time, the software suggests to others that lineage who adopt it without looking deeper as to the claimed foundation. The result is that there are several people incorporating the same dubious lineage.
My recommendation would be to add the suggestion and then check the evidentiary basis for it. If none is found, then I would delete the recommended parent from the tree and look elsewhere. Otherwise, you will end up adding a bunch of people who have no direct relationship, which is the end result of many Ancestry recommendations made for those living prior to 1850.
The main evidentiary links will be census records, birth and death records, gravestones, and old published material that contains information about family relationships which confirms other source material. An example, which I found, is this book published in 1900: A History of Hickman County, Tennessee - W. Jerome D. Spence, David L. Spence - Google Books The authors were well connected in that rural Tennessee county and conducted detailed research when the records from the 19th century and persons with personal knowledge were available.
Census records prior to 1850 become less useful since only the head of household is identified by name when the researcher needs the names of a wife and/or child. For many researchers, it will be hard or sometimes impossible to establish lineages prior to 1850 based on evidence rather than supposition due to that problem.
Prior to 1850, New England records are far more likely to have material information than those from southern states. Those with a long history of southern heritage, as I do, will have a number of loose ends and breaks in the chain that can not be remedied by online research, but would require visits to geographic area where records may exist.
Sometimes the Ancestry recommendation has some factual foundation but does not make any sense. I had one case where the 100% certain male descendant had two potential lines where both parents had the same names as well as similar birth and death dates. Neither line could be proved as being the right one given the limited records from the 1780 to 1850 period. One had the mother coming from a poor farming family in Tennessee and the other from Boston. Ancestry recommended the Boston line and I went with the hicks. Why would a young lady from Boston marry a farmer from Tennessee, let alone ever meet him during that period? It would be possible today but highly unlikely then.
I had prior knowledge about less than 1% of the persons now in my family tree. For the most part, I can only make general observations sourced from the limited information that is available.
All of my lines go deep into early colonial America, starting with the great migration during the 1600s, as many fled poverty, religious persecution, and/or class stratification for the opportunities offered here.
The primary occupations of those early settlers were farmers with some craftsman (e.g. blacksmiths) and preachers.
Before the Great Depression, I already knew that my grandparents were barely able to provide shelter and food for their families.
When one digs into the past, it will frequently be discovered that ancestors who were born in other countries were descended from those with some measure of power, influence and money.
There are several factors that contribute to a multi-generational movement toward poverty.
My ancestors come primary from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Northern Ireland). There was a deep line into marriages between protestant Scots and Irish.
In my history, I have identified several primary reasons why there was a multi-generational movement to subsistence living that started to reverse only after WWII.
1. No Universal Eduction
2. Class and Income Stratification
3. Too Many Children (there were frequently 5 to 10 children in the same generation)
4. A Bad Decision by One Person That Had Multi-Generational Impacts (though the decision may have made sense at the time made)
5. The Systemic Problem of Breaking a Cycle of Multi-Generational Poverty (e.g. Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis: J. D. Vance)
Where there was money and position in Great Britain, the direct male ancestor would not be the eldest son who inherited the bulk of the estate or a woman whose lot in life was to bear and raise 5 to 10 children. The end result was a movement to subsistence living and a willingness to jump ship for a fresh beginning in Colonial America.
A bad decision would be something like moving from Boston to Hickman County Tennessee to buy cheap land. That kind of decision led to 150 years of subsistence living.
So far, I have found 5 direct ancestors that fought in the Revolutionary War.
For those ancestors who started in Virginia or who moved to the south prior to the Civil War, many owned slaves and fought for the Confederacy.
So there will be skeletons. I do not believe that one can justify owning slaves by arguing that it was common at the time. Moral principles are immutable and perpetual, unrelated to time periods.
There were benefits to having large families and hundreds of relative populating a rural county. Early death of both parents with young children led to others raising the children, providing them food and shelter. There was probably a far stronger community bond than one will generally fine today where people are far more isolated from family and community support.
Both of my maternal grandparents, who were born in Hickman County, lost both parents when they were children.
My maternal great-grandfather's father was murdered in 1863 by "jawhawkers" who just wanted to kill someone. His wife put the eight kids in a wagon led by a mule and took them to her parents. She then died within a short time thereafter. In that kind of world, the entire focus is survival day-to-day.
A more modern version of living in 19th Century Hickman County, Tennessee would be small factory towns in the Midwest where the main employer left many years ago but the descendants of the middle class workers remain. Another modern example would be impoverished areas of major cities.
It is not easy to break out of those multi-generational cycles. One person may break out by sheer force of will and a driven desire to do so.
Sometimes, the break can start simply by moving elsewhere, a decision made by my maternal grandfather when he decided to leave Hickman County and move his family to Nashville during the Great Depression. While never rich himself, he was far more financially secure than anyone in his ancestral lineage for over 100 years.
What made the move important was that he gave his children, grand-children, great-grandchildren and so on an opportunity, which was exploited, to decisively break from the multi-generational cycle of subsistence living. And, now, over 100 people have benefited substantially from that simple decision to move.
Genealogical Research:
Since I have no stock purchases to discuss, I will instead make some general observations about the genealogical research that has consumed my free time over the past two weeks.
I am using Ancestry.com which has an abundance of source material.
When a new ancestor is added, Ancestry will frequently suggest a potential mother or father.
Those suggestions are crowd sourced for the most part and many will be based on a solid foundation of evidence while others will be properly characterized as a reality creations.
Once one person creates a lineage that has no factual foundation, probably for the first time, the software suggests to others that lineage who adopt it without looking deeper as to the claimed foundation. The result is that there are several people incorporating the same dubious lineage.
My recommendation would be to add the suggestion and then check the evidentiary basis for it. If none is found, then I would delete the recommended parent from the tree and look elsewhere. Otherwise, you will end up adding a bunch of people who have no direct relationship, which is the end result of many Ancestry recommendations made for those living prior to 1850.
The main evidentiary links will be census records, birth and death records, gravestones, and old published material that contains information about family relationships which confirms other source material. An example, which I found, is this book published in 1900: A History of Hickman County, Tennessee - W. Jerome D. Spence, David L. Spence - Google Books The authors were well connected in that rural Tennessee county and conducted detailed research when the records from the 19th century and persons with personal knowledge were available.
Census records prior to 1850 become less useful since only the head of household is identified by name when the researcher needs the names of a wife and/or child. For many researchers, it will be hard or sometimes impossible to establish lineages prior to 1850 based on evidence rather than supposition due to that problem.
Prior to 1850, New England records are far more likely to have material information than those from southern states. Those with a long history of southern heritage, as I do, will have a number of loose ends and breaks in the chain that can not be remedied by online research, but would require visits to geographic area where records may exist.
Sometimes the Ancestry recommendation has some factual foundation but does not make any sense. I had one case where the 100% certain male descendant had two potential lines where both parents had the same names as well as similar birth and death dates. Neither line could be proved as being the right one given the limited records from the 1780 to 1850 period. One had the mother coming from a poor farming family in Tennessee and the other from Boston. Ancestry recommended the Boston line and I went with the hicks. Why would a young lady from Boston marry a farmer from Tennessee, let alone ever meet him during that period? It would be possible today but highly unlikely then.
I had prior knowledge about less than 1% of the persons now in my family tree. For the most part, I can only make general observations sourced from the limited information that is available.
All of my lines go deep into early colonial America, starting with the great migration during the 1600s, as many fled poverty, religious persecution, and/or class stratification for the opportunities offered here.
The primary occupations of those early settlers were farmers with some craftsman (e.g. blacksmiths) and preachers.
Before the Great Depression, I already knew that my grandparents were barely able to provide shelter and food for their families.
When one digs into the past, it will frequently be discovered that ancestors who were born in other countries were descended from those with some measure of power, influence and money.
There are several factors that contribute to a multi-generational movement toward poverty.
My ancestors come primary from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Northern Ireland). There was a deep line into marriages between protestant Scots and Irish.
In my history, I have identified several primary reasons why there was a multi-generational movement to subsistence living that started to reverse only after WWII.
1. No Universal Eduction
2. Class and Income Stratification
3. Too Many Children (there were frequently 5 to 10 children in the same generation)
4. A Bad Decision by One Person That Had Multi-Generational Impacts (though the decision may have made sense at the time made)
5. The Systemic Problem of Breaking a Cycle of Multi-Generational Poverty (e.g. Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis: J. D. Vance)
Where there was money and position in Great Britain, the direct male ancestor would not be the eldest son who inherited the bulk of the estate or a woman whose lot in life was to bear and raise 5 to 10 children. The end result was a movement to subsistence living and a willingness to jump ship for a fresh beginning in Colonial America.
A bad decision would be something like moving from Boston to Hickman County Tennessee to buy cheap land. That kind of decision led to 150 years of subsistence living.
So far, I have found 5 direct ancestors that fought in the Revolutionary War.
For those ancestors who started in Virginia or who moved to the south prior to the Civil War, many owned slaves and fought for the Confederacy.
So there will be skeletons. I do not believe that one can justify owning slaves by arguing that it was common at the time. Moral principles are immutable and perpetual, unrelated to time periods.
There were benefits to having large families and hundreds of relative populating a rural county. Early death of both parents with young children led to others raising the children, providing them food and shelter. There was probably a far stronger community bond than one will generally fine today where people are far more isolated from family and community support.
Both of my maternal grandparents, who were born in Hickman County, lost both parents when they were children.
My maternal great-grandfather's father was murdered in 1863 by "jawhawkers" who just wanted to kill someone. His wife put the eight kids in a wagon led by a mule and took them to her parents. She then died within a short time thereafter. In that kind of world, the entire focus is survival day-to-day.
A more modern version of living in 19th Century Hickman County, Tennessee would be small factory towns in the Midwest where the main employer left many years ago but the descendants of the middle class workers remain. Another modern example would be impoverished areas of major cities.
It is not easy to break out of those multi-generational cycles. One person may break out by sheer force of will and a driven desire to do so.
Sometimes, the break can start simply by moving elsewhere, a decision made by my maternal grandfather when he decided to leave Hickman County and move his family to Nashville during the Great Depression. While never rich himself, he was far more financially secure than anyone in his ancestral lineage for over 100 years.
What made the move important was that he gave his children, grand-children, great-grandchildren and so on an opportunity, which was exploited, to decisively break from the multi-generational cycle of subsistence living. And, now, over 100 people have benefited substantially from that simple decision to move.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
February 2019 Maturities
SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured
MI = Monthly Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
2 National Rural Utilities 2.15% SU (bought July 2018)
1 Morgan Stanley 2.45% SU 2/1/19 (bought March 2018)
2 ZB Bank 1.55% CDs 2/4/19 (16 month CDs)
1 Treasury 2.235% IR 6 Month 2/7 (bought at auction)
3 Treasury 2.366% IR 3 Month 2/7 (bought at auction)
1 Treasury 2.235% IR 6 Month 2/7 (bought at auction)
3 Treasury 2.366% IR 3 Month 2/7 (bought at auction)
2 National Rural Utilities 1.65% SU 2/9 (bought December 2017)
2 Wells Fargo 1.8% CDs MI 2/11 (13 month CDs)
2 Merrick Bank 1.6% CDs MI 2/11 (18 month CDs)
2 Lakeside BK 1.55% CDs MI 2/13 (16 month CDs)
1 Union Pacific 2.25% SU 2/15 (bought June 2018)
2 United Healthcare 1.7% SU 2/15 (bought December 2017)
1 Treasury .75% Coupon 2/15 (bought July 2018)
1 Treasury .75% Coupon 2/15 (bought July 2018)
2 BMW BK 1.6% CDs 2/19 (18 month CDs)
1 Wells Fargo 1.85% CD 2/19 MI (13 month CD)
2 Toyota Motor 1.7% SU 2/19 (bought November 2017)
3 Treasury 2.392% IR 3 Month T Bills 2/21 (bought at auction)
3 Treasury 2.392% IR 3 Month T Bills 2/21 (bought at auction)
2 Apple 1.7% SU 2/22 (bought January 2018)
2 American Honda 1.7% SU (bought December 2017)
1 Paccar 1.65% SU 2/25 (bought December 2017)
2 Chevron 1.686% SU 2/28 (bought December 2017)
2 Cisco 1.686% SU 2/28 (bought December 2017)
4 Treasury 1.5% 2/28 (secondary market purchases)
2 Treasury 2.417% IR 3 Month 2/28 (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 2.417% IR 3 Month 2/28 (bought at auction)
$44K
Purchases: $6K
A. Bought 1 Southern Company 2.75% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/20:
I now own 3 bonds with the last one bought in September 2018.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Southern Co. (SO)
SO Analyst Estimates
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/18
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q.E. 9/30/18
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.484
YTM at TC Then at 3.126%
Current Yield at TC = 2.7643%
My next maturity for this issuer is a 2 bond lot maturing on 9/1/19.
In a prior comment, I discussed one method that I use to check the ratings. The quest simply involves performing a search of similarly rated bonds maturing at about the same time and forming an opinion about a yield to maturity range. The question then is whether the YTM is materially outside that range which would indicate that the Bond Ghouls view the ratings as either too high or low.
For a Baa2 rated credit, the YTM of this Southern bond when purchased was at the low end of the range for Baa2 rated debt.
Autodesk YTM at 3.23%
Cigna 3.321%
Exelon 3.388%
Purchases: $6K
A. Bought 1 Southern Company 2.75% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/20:
I now own 3 bonds with the last one bought in September 2018.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Southern Co. (SO)
SO Analyst Estimates
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/18
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q.E. 9/30/18
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.484
YTM at TC Then at 3.126%
Current Yield at TC = 2.7643%
My next maturity for this issuer is a 2 bond lot maturing on 9/1/19.
In a prior comment, I discussed one method that I use to check the ratings. The quest simply involves performing a search of similarly rated bonds maturing at about the same time and forming an opinion about a yield to maturity range. The question then is whether the YTM is materially outside that range which would indicate that the Bond Ghouls view the ratings as either too high or low.
For a Baa2 rated credit, the YTM of this Southern bond when purchased was at the low end of the range for Baa2 rated debt.
Autodesk YTM at 3.23%
Cigna 3.321%
Exelon 3.388%
Juniper Networks 3.441%
It has been awhile since I own the common stock.
Yesterday, I received notice that this bond would be called early by the issuer. Southern Company Announces Expiration of Cash Tender Offers for Any and All of Certain Outstanding Debt Securities
B. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 2.1% SU Maturing on 7/26/21:
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
WFC Analyst Estimates
Wells Fargo Reports $6.1 Billion in Quarterly Net Income; Diluted EPS of $1.21
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.1
YTM at TC Then at 3.314%
Current Yield at TC = 2.1627%
C. Bought 2 Bank of Nova Scotia 2.35% SU Maturing on 10/31/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
BNS Analyst Estimates
Credit Ratings: Aa2/A+/AA-
Investor Presentation and Credit Ratings
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.946
YTM at Total Cost Then at 2.975%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3649%
D. Bought 2 Abbott 2.8% SU Maturing on 9/15/2020:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Shortly after I purchased this bond on 1/11/19, I received a notice that Abbott intends to redeem it. The redemption date will be 2/24/19.
Issuer: Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Abbott Reports 2018 Results and Issues Strong Forecast for 2019
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.5 (includes $ 2 Commission)
It has been awhile since I own the common stock.
Yesterday, I received notice that this bond would be called early by the issuer. Southern Company Announces Expiration of Cash Tender Offers for Any and All of Certain Outstanding Debt Securities
B. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 2.1% SU Maturing on 7/26/21:
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
WFC Analyst Estimates
Wells Fargo Reports $6.1 Billion in Quarterly Net Income; Diluted EPS of $1.21
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.1
YTM at TC Then at 3.314%
Current Yield at TC = 2.1627%
C. Bought 2 Bank of Nova Scotia 2.35% SU Maturing on 10/31/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
BNS Analyst Estimates
Credit Ratings: Aa2/A+/AA-
Investor Presentation and Credit Ratings
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.946
YTM at Total Cost Then at 2.975%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3649%
D. Bought 2 Abbott 2.8% SU Maturing on 9/15/2020:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Shortly after I purchased this bond on 1/11/19, I received a notice that Abbott intends to redeem it. The redemption date will be 2/24/19.
Issuer: Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Abbott Reports 2018 Results and Issues Strong Forecast for 2019
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.5 (includes $ 2 Commission)
3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 1 Healthcare Realty Trust 3.75% SU Bond Maturing on 4/15/23:
I now own 2 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus Linked)
Issuer: Healthcare Realty Trust (HR)
Healthcare Realty Trust - Medical Office REIT
"Healthcare Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust that integrates owning, managing, financing and developing income-producing real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2018, the Company owned 201 real estate properties in 27 states totaling 14.8 million square feet and was valued at approximately $5.0 billion. The Company provided leasing and property management services to 11.1 million square feet nationwide."
Healthcare Realty Trust Reports Results for the Third Quarter
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.861
YTM at TC Then at 4.091%
Current Yield at TC = 3.79%
B. Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/22:
I now own 2 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: American Electric Power Co. (AEP)
AEP Analyst Estimates
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.716
YTM at TC Then at 3.303%
Current Yield at TC = 2.99%
4. Eliminations:
A. Sold 101+ UMPQ at $18.34:
Two Year History in Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Profit: $160.98
Item # 1.A. Bought 100 UMPQ at $16.64 (1/16/19 Post)
UMPQ Realized Gains: $701.1
REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST
I discussed the reasons for selling this position in a comment.
B. Sold 50 HMMJ:CA (C$1 commission at IB):
Quote: Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMMJ:CA)
Sponsor's Website: Horizons ETFs - HMMJ
Profit Snapshot: C$216
Last Discussed:Update for Portfolio Management as of 12/28/18: HMMJ:CA (12/28/18 Post)
HMMJ:CA Realized Gains: C$889.5 (C$673.5 in 2018)
I am speculating and gambling when I buy this ETF. My consider to purchase range is currently at C$15 or lower. My sell range has been lowered to C$18 to C$20 from $22+. I will need a price closer to zero to reenter.
A. Bought 1 Healthcare Realty Trust 3.75% SU Bond Maturing on 4/15/23:
I now own 2 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus Linked)
Issuer: Healthcare Realty Trust (HR)
Healthcare Realty Trust - Medical Office REIT
"Healthcare Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust that integrates owning, managing, financing and developing income-producing real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2018, the Company owned 201 real estate properties in 27 states totaling 14.8 million square feet and was valued at approximately $5.0 billion. The Company provided leasing and property management services to 11.1 million square feet nationwide."
Healthcare Realty Trust Reports Results for the Third Quarter
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.861
YTM at TC Then at 4.091%
Current Yield at TC = 3.79%
B. Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/22:
I now own 2 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: American Electric Power Co. (AEP)
AEP Analyst Estimates
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.716
YTM at TC Then at 3.303%
Current Yield at TC = 2.99%
4. Eliminations:
A. Sold 101+ UMPQ at $18.34:
Two Year History in Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Profit: $160.98
Item # 1.A. Bought 100 UMPQ at $16.64 (1/16/19 Post)
UMPQ Realized Gains: $701.1
REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST
I discussed the reasons for selling this position in a comment.
B. Sold 50 HMMJ:CA (C$1 commission at IB):
Quote: Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMMJ:CA)
Sponsor's Website: Horizons ETFs - HMMJ
Profit Snapshot: C$216
Last Discussed:Update for Portfolio Management as of 12/28/18: HMMJ:CA (12/28/18 Post)
HMMJ:CA Realized Gains: C$889.5 (C$673.5 in 2018)
I am speculating and gambling when I buy this ETF. My consider to purchase range is currently at C$15 or lower. My sell range has been lowered to C$18 to C$20 from $22+. I will need a price closer to zero to reenter.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
The FED today discarded its language, found in the prior policy statements, that it anticipated "further gradual increases" in interest rates. In the new version, the FED will be "patient" before making any further moves. There was also a hint that the balance sheet drawdown may end sooner than anticipated. Their assessment of the economy was downgraded to "solid" from "strong".
ReplyDeleteThe FED basically confirmed what was already predicted by the market. There will likely be no further increases in the FF rate this year.
The Stock Jocks acted like this was new news.
The Bond Ghouls had trouble staying awake. This was not news to them, having priced in no rate hikes for weeks now.
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First Horizon (FHN) increased its quarterly dividend and raise the buyback authorization.
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/01/29/1707240/0/en/First-Horizon-Expands-Share-Purchase-Program-and-Increases-Common-Dividend-by-17.html
Analysts are unimpressed.
Stephens slapped a hold on the stock with a $15 price target today.
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/first-horizon-fhn-receives-a-hold-from-stephens-3/
Today's Closing Price:
First Horizon National Corp.
$14.92 +$0.25 +1.70%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fhn
The P/E based on this year's consensus estimate is currently at 9.77 and 8.94 for next year:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fhn/analystestimates
Hello SG,
ReplyDeleteDo you think the Fed made a mistake on inflation with its dovish stance?
thanks
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/u-s-
inflation-pressures-are-going-to-surprise-plurimi-cio-says~1599691
The Fed decided to follow the market's signals about inflation, as reflected in the break-even spreads for inflation protected treasuries.
ReplyDeleteChart: 10 Year TIP Break-even:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
The 10 year TIP break-even number is the annual average CPI over the next 10 years that the TIP buyer would need to break even with the buyer of the 10 year non-inflation protected treasury. You can see that this number has declined recently. Many view the break-even spread as the market's prediction for the annual inflation rate.
Someone more cynical would say that bowed to Trump's pressure and/or acquiesced in giving stock investors what they wanted-a FED put. Powell claimed that the FED was innocent of both charges.
At the moment, I do not see a problem with the FED going into a hold pattern. If inflation and inflation expectations heat up, the FED can respond with further hikes.
The Bond Ghouls decided to react today to the FED's policy announcement, taking interest rates down meaningfully. The 10 year treasury closed at a 2.64% yield:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
The 2 year treasury yield has been falling as well:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd02y?countrycode=bx
The 2-10 spread is about what it was before the latest decline in rates, currently at .2%.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_2.html
Interesting digging and family history. The decisions made and their impact stand out. Hadn't expected that, or thought about it. Farming was always considered honorable, and an important basic way to earn a living. But it often used to be a very hard way.
ReplyDeleteI've thought about getting one as a present for my mom. She's expressed interest. I had found an entry at Ellis Island with my maternal grandfather's name. I've wanted to go back and find out if he had a visa or requested asylum. We don't know much about his arrival, just why he left. At the Holocaust Museum's records I found a town with the name of my paternal grandfather before he changed it (because he was tired of spelling it for Americans.) It fit well with tiny pieces of info I had. I can't believe that name made it through Ellis Island intact.
Farming did provide a subsistence living up to the Great Depression, though there were prolonged periods when crop prices were so low and/or distribution so costly that profits were hard, or even impossible to generate. At a minimum, there was at least food to eat and lumber was plentiful to build shelter.
DeleteWhat happened historically is that my ancestors who came to America in the 1600s enjoyed success compared to their circumstances in Scotland and Ireland. Some acquired large tracts of land in coastal Virginia and further south.
They would then have large families with 5 to as many as 14 children.
When the land was split up or sold, there was not much left for each child which spurred a movement westward for cheaper land to farm, frequently procured with land grants given by the local governments to spur settlement.
Ancestry.com had either copies of those land grants or summaries of the original record
Clashes with Indian tribes who resisted this invasion were common in both Virginia and the Carolinas.
For my ancestors, the western movement led them to Middle Tennessee in the early 1800s, concentrated in Hickman, Perry and Maury Counties on my maternal side and somewhat closer to Nashville on my paternal side. Both sides were in Nashville when WWII started.
The Great Depression, WWII and the strong economic recovery thereafter provided the macro circumstances that actually provided the economic opportunities to break the long standing cycle.
The Great Depression forced migration from places where present and future economic opportunities were non-existent or low to large cities where there was a chance.
That migration during the Great Depression improved educational opportunities. The schools in Nashville were unquestionably far better than those in rural Hickman County and there were far more jobs and opportunities in Nashville.
Starting with my grandparents and moving back in time, a grade school education was commonplace. Thereafter, high school graduation was the norm for their children with one of my uncles acquiring a Ph.D. The those in my generation all finished high school in Nashville, graduated from college and many secured professional decrees.
Nashville is still a place for opportunities as shown by the migration into the area among young people.