Friday, January 11, 2019

Portfolio Allocation and Management as of 1/11/19

Last Year was forgettable as both bonds and stocks, using broad ETFs to measure performance, produced negative total returns unadjusted for inflation and taxes. 



A post-Christmas stock market rally significantly improved the total return compared to SPY's performance through Christmas Eve.  

The adjustment for inflation, using all items CPI for 2018, would reduce those numbers by 1.9% and by 2.2% using the core CPI number. Consumer Price Index Summary

The tax adjustment would depend on whether the assets are held in taxable or non-taxable accounts and the taxpayer's tax bracket. 

The name of the game is "after tax, inflation adjusted total return." 

The inflation rate adjustment will depend on an individual's personal CPI rate which could be higher or lower than the BLS numbers.  

My personal inflation rate declined after I transitioned to Medicare and a Blue Cross of Tennessee Medigap policy for health insurance from the Obamacare Bronze Plan. Certain major components are not applicable to me, while others are lower and none are probably higher. Overall, my personal inflation rate would be somewhere in the zero to .5% range.  

The fast decline in the stock market did allow me to increase my positions in dividend paying stocks at higher yields. The overall percentage allocation to stocks increased by about 1% from 10% to 11% of my brokerage account assets as I previously discussed: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Update for Portfolio Management as of 12/28/18

I have discussed some of those dividend stock purchases in recent posts and will continue discussing several of them made over the past 30 days throughout January. I am running behind on discussing stock purchases and dispositions.  

I would describe my current stock strategy as selling the rips and buying the dips with a focus on dividend paying stocks. 

At the current time, I am expecting that the S & P 500 will run into overhead resistance near 2,632, a major support line pierced with much gusto in early December. 

The overall main emphasis continues to be on capital preservation plus income generation primarily through investment grade bonds. The longer end of the maturity spectrum is concentrated in high quality Tennessee municipal bonds. The overall weighting remains in zero to 3 year maturities.    

To highlight this conservative asset allocation approach, I took the following asset allocation snapshot of a Fidelity account, the largest of seven:

This snapshot shows that the bond allocation is investment grade and weighted in short term maturities: 


Fidelity's calculations are mostly accurate, but I would quibble with some classifications. 

Among the stock positions, for example, Fidelity includes equity preferred stocks which I would include in the bond classification, or as a separate class. I would not classify those securities, which do not represent an ownership interest in the businesses, in the same category as common stocks. 

Oddly, some exchange traded bonds that I own in this account are included in the "preferred stock" category and consequently part of my "stock" holdings. In this account, the exchange traded first mortgage bonds and the junior bond THGA are classified as "stocks".  

Another asset class, included in the stock category, are bond CEFs like GDO and BTZ which I currently own in this account. 

In short, I own less than 9% in common stocks in this account, probably closer to 6% to 7% without totaling up the numbers and just eyeballing them. 

I am keeping the MM allocation in this account around $1K to $3K. That may increase when and if the the MM yield becomes higher than the yield from short term treasuries, or I run out of options for risk assets purchases.   

As bonds and CDs mature, I will buy more of the same, though some of those proceeds may be directed to common and preferred stocks depending on valuations, yields and my opinions about the risk/reward balance. 

Last month, I shifted more of the redemption proceeds to common and preferred stocks due to their price declines. 

Bonds and CDs became less attractive due to their falling yields, though yields have risen slightly this year through yesterday: 




Yields are falling today:

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note = 2.693% -.054% as of 11:19 E.S.T on 11/11/19

From my risk/reward perspective, both bonds and stocks have become less attractive over the past several days. 

I am still able to find pockets of relative valuation and yield. 

Yesterday, I had 2 Total Capital bonds mature: 


As I mentioned previously, this Aa3 rated bond never traded below 99 since its issuance in 2014, which did not keep Fidelity's third party bond pricing service from valuing this bond at less than 94 last month (pricing is at 1/10th of the $1000 par value):

   
If I could have bought that bond at 93.88 last month, all of my available capital would have been deployed at that price. I could have sold the two bonds at that time near 100, but why do so when I would receive 100 without paying a commission in a few more days. 

I had bought this bond on 5/2/18 at a total cost per bond of 99.874: Item # 2.B. The YTM at that price was 2.295%.

After looking at securities to redeploy those proceeds this morning, I elected to buy 2 Abbott Laboratories 2.8% senior unsecured bonds maturing on 9/15/2020 at a total cost of 99.5 (purchased at 99.4). Bond Detail The YTM at that TC number is 3.171%, but the bond rating is lower at Baa1. Since I am not currently concerned about Abbott's ability to pay interest and the principal amount at maturity,  the difference in ratings was not relevant for me. 

Another reason for buying the ABT bond is that I did not own any of their bonds. Diversification among issuers and sectors is part of my bond allocation strategy. 

And, I recently had 2 Abbott 2% bonds maturing on 3/15/20 redeemed early at par value plus accrued interest:


ROTH IRA 
Item # 2.D.

I lost 4 ABT bonds last year at maturity.  

I also looked at the comparable maturity treasury yield: 


I could have bought two 1.375% coupon treasuries with a 2.536% YTM and a much lower current yield compared to this Abbott bond. Some investors may prefer to accept the lower yield in exchange for perceived safety and the comparative impact of state income taxes. States are not allowed to tax payments made by the U.S. treasury.  

Those are not issues for me so I went with the higher yield ABT bonds. A .6% differential in yields is not material when looking at a 2 bond purchase. It becomes relevant when looking at $2M at .6% or $12,000 per year. 

So that summarizes major points in my thought process for that $2K in proceeds received yesterday.

Next week, I will have $21K in proceeds to redeploy. So that will involve a variety of decisions. If I can not comfortably reallocate to a "risk" asset, then the balance would be kept in the Fidelity Government MM fund for future redeployment.   

7 comments:

  1. While the stock market clawed back some of its losses this month so far, I am expecting a slowdown in the move up as SPX advances on 2632.

    Today's Close: S&P 500 2,596.26 -0.38 (-0.01%)

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC

    The VIX closed at 18.19, down 1.32 or 6.72% which is an anomaly given the slight decline in the S & P 500.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix

    The VIX and SPX closed at 36.07 and 2,351.1 respectively last Christmas Eve. So the rise in SPX and the decline in the VIX since Christmas are both moving in the right direction with the normal negative correlation that I would expect.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC

    My first move next week has already been made. I am redeploying $3K in proceeds recently received in my Schwab account into a three month treasury bill that will be bought at auction next Monday. That leaves with me with $10K in proceeds to redeploy in that account that will be received next week. Of that amount, I will use $3K to buy a 6 month treasury bill at the auction on Tuesday 1/22/19 (the prior Monday is a holiday) .


    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

    Schwab pays only .33% in its sweep account so I will generally not allow funds to stay for long in that account. You really have to look to find that rate. The .33% is paid on amounts in the bank sweep account up to $1M whereupon it is increased to .7% for sums of $1M and higher.

    The probability is currently at 71.8% that the FED will be at the same FF rate as now through the end of December 2019.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

    During the week, the odds of at least one .25% increased from single digits to 15.3%. The odds for 1 increase closed today at 14.5% with the probability of two increases at a .8%. The odds of a .25% decrease on or before the December meeting is at 12.9%. Effectively, this is a prediction that there will be no change in the FF rate this year with the probability of a .25% increase roughly balanced with the odds of a .25% decrease.

    As year moves along, the odds will change. If the change is to increase the probability of a decrease, then I would expect the 3 and 6 months bill rates to drift down some as the odds of that decrease increase. This is causing me to shift slightly more money into the first half of 2020 maturities where I can still receive over 3% on quality corporate debt.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello South Gent,

    I wonder if you could comment on your explanation of so-called investment-grade bonds. I note that when I look at Moody's or S&P bond ratings, they often appear to be out of date; they were done when the bond has been created.

    So I'm wondering how robust or accurate these ratings are?

    I also see that you concentrate more on the Moody debt scale quality. Do you consider the lower medium grade as Baa3 of viable investment-grade product and where do you draw the line between a margin of safety in terms of BBB+for S&P and what level would this be for Moody's?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. G: The ratings are generally made with the last rated bond offering.

      I will read the reports.

      Moody's reports are available to the public once you register.

      Fitch reports are available without registration.

      https://www.fitchratings.com/site/search?content=research

      S & P reports are available at Fidelity.

      I do not take the grades as gospel.

      My first check is whether the bond's price is out of whack with the grade.

      Most similarly rated bonds will trade within a narrow yield range, but there will be outliers below and more importantly above that range.

      The outliers indicate that the Bond Ghouls have formed a consensus opinion that the outliers are either more or less risky than similarly rated bonds within the yield range. So that is a search for the market's opinion on risk.

      The GE bonds, for example, trade at a much higher yield than similarly rated bonds indicating a broad disagreement with the current grade as too high.

      It is possible to get a feel for the yield range by doing a FINRA search. Go to this page:

      http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp

      Click "show" after "Advanced Search".

      Enter maturity dates near the bond being considered for purchase and a Moody's rating identical to that bond in both the "from" and "to".

      I mentioned buying an Abbott bond rated Baa1 in this post that matures in September 2020. I entered that rating and a maturity range from 9/1/20 to 9/30/20.

      To get a better selection you can add 15 or so days on both ends of that range.

      The yields shown by FINRA are yields to maturity rather than current yields.

      For most investment grade bonds, I would use the YTM since it is total return number.

      The result showed me that the YTM for the ABT bond is at the low end of the range which indicates that the Bond Ghouls view it as slightly safer than the average Baa1 rating. One of the outliers produced by that search was GE Capital where the bonds had YTMs over 4%. Another issuer shown in that search, Nextera Capital, is viewed about equally as safe. Nextera Capital bonds are guaranteed by the large electric utility Nextera (NEE).

      Another test is my knowledge of the company. I started investing in $1K par value bonds in 2007 as one repository of funds from stock and stock fund liquidations. The emphasis then was to build a short term bond ladder with A- or better rated bonds.

      I came to bonds after a long history as a stock investor who actually read earnings reports. I am consequently familiar with the bond issuers and at least have a feel for their solvency to pay senior unsecured debt. The bond investor still has to have that familiarity in order to make an informed judgment about credit risk.

      I have not figured out my weighted average bond rating. I own somewhere over 300 bonds. In my Fidelity account, I have to scroll seven or eight times before I even get out of the bond section. My other brokerage accounts, excluding the mutual fund accounts, are similarly weighted.

      I would guess that my weighted average bond rating is A-.

      I may not own any bonds now rated Baa3/BBB-.

      I do own a relatively light amount of BBB/Baa2 rated bonds. An example would be some short term CVS bonds. CVS suffered a ratings downgrade after loading up its balance sheet with debt connected to its Aetna acquisition.

      When I buy BBB debt, I am comfortable with the credit risk within the period to maturity.

      I would not buy a BBB rated bond maturing in the 2030s for example since a lot can go wrong between now and then. The credit risk can become greater with the passage of time. And, I have made an argument here that risk securities (bonds and stocks) can be riskier over a long period of time given an individual's situational risk. That kind of discussion can be found by clicking "Bayesian Long Term Risk Analysis for Stocks" in the list on the right hand side.

      In the coming years, I will move up the quality ladder.

      Delete
    2. I mentioned CVS short term bonds in the previous comment.

      I did buy, but have not yet discussed, 2 CVS 2.8% SU bonds maturing on 7/20/2020. FINRA shows the last trade YTM at 3.374%:

      http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C635739&symbol=CVS4268482

      That YTM would be consistent with the yield of the Abbott bond maturing in less than two months later and rated one notch higher by Moody's.

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cvs-to-issue-40-billion-of-debt-to-fund-aetna-acquisition-2018-03-06

      I am not concerned about the credit risk for either bond given the maturity dates. I would be willing to go out further in the maturity spectrum for Abbott bonds than for CVS bonds however.

      Delete
  3. The short term bonds that I am buying are part of a capital preservation objective.

    The yields on short term instruments have produced negative real returns before taxes since 2008 until recently when CD and T Bill yields crepe slightly above the annual CPI rate.

    Depending on a taxpayer's marginal tax bracket, and average weighted yield for 2018 in these investments, the real return after taxes would likely be negative for most taxpayers last year for interest paid into taxable accounts from those short term investments. That is not "safe" for most households.


    As I have stated in the past, the short term instruments (T Bills, CDs, savings accounts and money market funds) carry a great deal of risk for most households since the total inflation adjusted return will not be woefully insufficient to meet their financial needs in retirement and/or prior thereto.

    Looking at my Fidelity account this morning, which I discussed in this blog, I noted that I am up $6+K over the level immediately before the stock market started to tank. That is a stress test of my capital preservation and income generation objectives.

    I did not go down much given the bond heavy allocation.

    Income continued to flow into the account virtually on a daily basis.

    I also bought some stocks that have gone up in value. Importantly, I bought some bonds when the 10 year treasury went over 3 % and those bonds have gone up in value last October and November.

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2018

    I will do some trading in corporate bonds.

    This same approach allowed me to recover from the 2008 through early March 2009 catastrophe by July 2009.

    It is important to me to have a constant stream of maturities so that I can redeploy proceeds based on my risk/reward assessments. When the stock market tanked late last year and in February 2018, I could redeploy some proceeds into common stocks without having to sell something to buy something else.

    A number of the short term bond purchases are consequently fillers in the short term ladder. I may buy a CD with the same or similar yield as a treasury bill simply based on the maturity date and its placement in the constant stream of maturities. An example, which will be discussed in my next post, was the purchase of a Bank of China CD with a 2.45% coupon, which was virtually identical to the 3 month T Bill yield. I do not have to take in consideration the difference in state taxation of CD and treasury interest payments since Tennessee taxes neither.

    Given the benefits of a robust stock market since March 2009, and my current financial situation, I am no longer trying to match the S & P 500 performance on a rolling five year basis with a balanced portfolio which has substantially less risk and more income, nor am I shooting for a 10% annual average total return. Those goals were explained in a April 2014 post:

    Scroll to
    Portfolio Management and Performance Numbers:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2014/04/portfolio-management-goalscricket-bond.html

    The general goal now is to emphasize capital preservation more; to raise gradually my weighted average bond yield to over 4%; to supplement my interest and dividend payments with trading gains; and to realize an annual average total return somewhere in the 4% to 6%. Currently, I am spending about 20% of my annual income generated in my brokerage accounts. The portfolio size is consequently still growing without coming close to invading the principal amount to pay expenses.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for detailed bond explanation; very helpful; here is the Doubleline webcast for some idea what Gundlach is thinking!

      https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1220240&tp_key=3f8c31820b

      Delete
  4. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/01/observations-and-sample-of-recent_13.html

    ReplyDelete