Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: BIZD, DEA, DPG, FNB, GOOD, HBAN, OFS, PFLT, TPVG

Economy

U.S. service firms grow at slowest pace in 5 months but most still upbeat despite tariffs, higher rates, ‘political claptrap,’ ISM finds - MarketWatch

The December ISM services index was reported at 57.6, down from 60.7 in November. The December number is still a strong one. The new orders component was a very strong 62.7, up .2 from the prior month. ISM Report - December 2018 Non-Manufacturing 


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Markets and Market Commentary




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Trump

Fact Check: Did the U.S. catch 4,000 terrorists at the southern border in 2018? This is just another knowingly false narrative advanced by Demagogue Don and his minions to rile the easily manipulated Trumpsters into supporting the massive wall build. 


Only six immigrants in terrorism database stopped by CBP at southern border in first half of 2018 Trump is lying of course. Even those 6 persons may not have been terrorists but people whose name matched someone on some nation's watch list. 


Just more false statements made by Lying Don for the same purpose: Trump's Border Blunders - FactCheck.orgPresident Trump’s nonsensical claim that Mexico is paying for the wall - The Washington Post


Trump's address to the nation last night contained the now standard exaggerations, fear mongering and fabrications designed to manipulate the uninformed and gullible. The majority of heroin enters through legal points of entry. 2017 National Drug Threat Assessment: DOJ/DEA.pdf 

Trump's own opioids commission reported last November that we are losing that fight predominately through China. Final_Report President's Commission on Combating Drug Addiction and the Opioid Crisis 11-1-2017.pdf 

The State Department confirmed recently that there is "no credible evidence" that terrorist groups have sent operatives to enter the U.S. through the Mexican border. Page 205.pdf

Migrant crossings have been declining for two decades. Border Crossings Have Been Declining for Years, Despite Claims of a ‘Crisis of Illegal Immigration’ - The New York Times 

And, illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native born Americans. The Myth of the Criminal Immigrant - The New York Times

Fact-checking President Trump’s Oval Office address on immigration - The Washington Post

Trump touts 'thriving' steel and manufacturing, but insiders disagree

Trump Administration Distorts the Facts On Climate Report- FactCheck.org


No, Mexico isn't paying for border wall through USMCA trade deal, despite Donald Trump's claims | PolitiFact


Donald claimed that he can relate to those federal workers who are no longer receiving a paycheck and are consequently having difficulties paying bills. President Donald Trump says he 'can relate' to federal workers going without pay - ABC News Donald
can only experience empathy for himself when he is wallowing in his self-pity. When everyone recognizes Donald as a Stable Genius, a truth teller unparalleled in the universe's history since the big bang, the greatest leader in U.S. history, and start to praise him daily in the most effusive terms imaginable, then and only then will Donald feel empathy for no one.  


White House promises tax refunds despite shutdown, but who will do work? I am expecting that the GOP's shutdown will delay tax refunds since the IRS is one of the agencies impacted by a lack of funding.   


In a democracy, the party who wants to fund a new program has to have the votes or is willing to bargain. When the party lacks the votes to pass legislation, shutting the government down as a form of blackmail to achieve a policy objective is irresponsible, even reprehensible. The republicans did not have the votes to repeal Obamacare so they shut the government down in 2013 unless the democrats agreed to repeal that law. The GOP caused the most recent shutdown since they lack the votes to fund their wall.   


Trump falsely claimed Obama, Carter, Bush, and Clinton told him they wanted to build a wall - The Washington Post


Most Americans don't support building the wall - CBS News


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A. Started Small Ball Buying Program For FNB-Bought 30 at $10.98;  20 at $10.49; 10 at $9.9 and 20 at $9.42-Used Commission Free Trades:



Quote: FNB Stock Quote


Closing Price Yesterday: FNB $10.62 +$0.06 +0.57% 

FNB Analyst Consensus Estimates (as of 1/7/19) 

2019: $1.16

I own another 100 in my Schwab account, bought in two fifty share lots using commission free trades. 

I will not be making any additional open market purchases in that account, but will reinvest the dividend. 

This 30 share purchase starts a small ball buying program in my Fidelity account, where I still have commission free trades. 

Maximum Position in this Account: 100 shares + Shares purchased with dividends

Current Position: 80 Shares


Average Cost Per Share: $10.33

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule 20 share lot remaining 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share ($.48 annually)


Dividend Yield at Average Total Cost = 4.65%


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at less than $13 per share, starting with next payment  


Likely Liquidation Range: $13 to $14 


Last Discussed:  
Item # 1.A. (10/31/18 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add. 


FNB Trading Profits to Date: $1,172.38


Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.A. Sold 50 FNB at $13.65-Used Commission Free Trade (9/5/18 Post)Item # 1.D. Sold 50 FNB at $13.9-Used Commission Free Trade (6/18/18 Post)Item 2.A. Sold 60 FNB at $14.59  (3/5/2018)Item # 4.A. Sold 100 FNB at $13.94-Satellite Taxable Account (10/23/17 Post)


5 Year Financial History2017 Annual Report at page 40


B, Added 10 HBAN at $12.85 and 10 at $11.8-Used Commission Free Trades




Last DiscussedItem # 3.A.  (11/11/18 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add.


HBAN Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates (as of 1/7/19)

2019: $1.37

Current Position in this Account: 50+ Shares


Maximum Position in this Account: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends


Average Cost Per Share in this Account: $13.49


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Dividends: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)


Dividend Yield at Average Total Cost = 4.15%


HBAN Trading Profits to Date: $434.13


Last Elimination:  Item # 3.A. Sold 100 HBAN at $16.12  (2/3/18 Post)

2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy

$6K in Purchases: 

A. Bought 1 Dominion Energy 2.962% SU Maturing on 7/1/19



Finra Page: Bonds Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)

D Analyst Estimates 
Dominion Energy Announces Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings, Additional Non-Core Asset Sale; Provides Atlantic Coast Pipeline & Supply Header Updates

Dominion Energy is a holding company that owns Virginia Electric Power  (VEPCO) and Dominion Gas. Dominion Energy is in the process of acquiring SCANA, a large utility operating in South Carolina that was formerly known as South Carolina Energy and Gas. "Under the terms of the SCANA Merger Agreement announced in January 2018, Dominion Energy has agreed to issue 0.6690 shares of Dominion Energy common stock for each share of SCANA common stock upon closing. In addition, SCANA’s debt, which currently totals approximately $ 7.1 billion, is expected to remain outstanding." 10-Q page 32


VEPCO and Dominion Gas have higher credit ratings than the holding company. VEPCO is the largest electric utility operating in Virginia and has some operations in northeastern North Carolina that are not contiguous with SCANA's service territory.  DE also currently owns assets locates outside of Virginia and North Carolina. 10-K


Dominion Energy Completes Previously Announced Asset Sales (12/14/18)  


Credit Ratings: 




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.914 (includes $1 commission)

YTM at Total Cost Then at 3.131%
Current Yield at TC = 2.9645%

B. Bought 1 Bank of Ozarks 2.55% CD (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 10/4/19





Holding Company: Bank OZK (OZK)

OZK Analyst Estimates


C. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 2.375% SU Maturing on 7/23/19




FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


I now own 2 bonds. 


Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)

MS Analyst Estimates
Form 10-Q (Q/E 9/30/18)

Credit Ratings: 




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.742

YTM at TC Then at 2.84%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3811%

D. Bought 1 Bank of China 2.45% CD Maturing on 4/15/18:




E. Bought 2 Marsh & McClennan 2.35% SU Maturing on 9/10/19




Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Marsh & McLennan Cos. (MMC)

MMC Analyst Estimates 
Marsh & McLennan Companies Reports Third Quarter 2018 Results 

Credit Ratings: 





Bought at a Total Cost of 99.687

YTM at TC Then at 2.811%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3574%

3. Income Generation-BDCs

A. Bought 30 PFLT at $11.99-Used Commission Free Trade



This starts a small ball buying program for PFLT in my Fidelity Account. 

SEC Filings

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/18 (risk factor summary starts at page 14 and ends at page 30)


Last DiscussedItem # 3.A Bought 50 PFLT at $13.16 and 50 at $12.78-Used Commission Free Trades in Schwab Taxable Account (10/17/18 Post) 

Current Position in this Account: 30 Shares


Maximum Position= 100 shares


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain) 


Dividends: Monthly at $.095 per share ($1.14 annually)


PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (PFLT) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com


Dividend Yield at $11.99 = 9.51

Dividend Reinvestment: I will not reinvest dividends in this account but will continue to reinvest in the Schwab account. 


Net Asset Value Per Share History: Relatively Stable for a BDC


9/30/18: $13.82 

6/30/18: $13.82
9/30/17: $14.10
9/30/16: $14.06
9/30/15: $13.95
9/30/14: $14.40
9/30/13: $14.10
9/30/12: $13.98 

IPO at $15 in April 2011 (net after underwriters discount = $13.95)


Discount to Net Asset Value Per Share = -13.24%  (using NAV of $13.82 and $11.99  average total cost per share)


5 Year Operating History (through 9/30/18)





Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/18/18 (day after purchase)  


Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18 




"As of September 30, 2018, our portfolio totaled $1,000.6 million and consisted of $913.3 million of first lien secured debt (of which $101.1 million was invested in PSSL), $21.2 million of second lien secured debt and $66.1 million of preferred and common equity (of which $44.8 million was invested in PSSL). Our debt portfolio consisted of 100% variable-rate investments. As of September 30, 2018, we had no portfolio companies on non-accrual. Overall, the portfolio had net unrealized depreciation of $0.9 million. Our overall portfolio consisted of 88 companies with an average investment size of $11.4 million, had a weighted average yield on debt investments of 8.8%, and was invested 91% in first lien secured debt (of which 10% was invested in PSSL), 2% in second lien secured debt and 7% in preferred and common equity (of which 4% was invested in PSSL). As of September 30, 2018, all of the investments held by PSSL were first lien secured debt." (emphasis added)


SEC Filed Press Release 


B. Added 10 OFS at $9.95 and 20 at $9.61-Used Commission Free Trades





Quote: OFS Capital Corp.  (OFS)


Closing Price Yesterday: OFS $11.30 +$0.44 +4.05% 

Website: Homepage - OFS Capital

Investments - OFS Capital

I did not see any publicly available news to explain this drop. BDCs were in general much weaker on 12/17/18 than major market indexes that were down over 2%.


Last DiscussedItem # 4.B. Bought 10 OFS at $11.07 and 10 at $10.75 (11/11/18 Post) 


I discussed the third quarter report in that post and have nothing to add.  


Current Position This Account: 81+ Shares


Maximum Position: 100 shares + Shares Purchased with Dividends


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule 


Average Cost Per Share: $10.7 


Last Reported Net Asset Value Per Share = $13.75 as of 9/30/18


Discount to NAV Per Share at Average Total Cost Per Share = -22.18%  (using NAV as of 9/30/18)  


Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/18


Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 ($1.36 Annually)


Dividend Yield at $9.95 = 13.67%

Dividend Yield at $9.61 = 14.15%

Dividend Yield at Total Average Cost = 12.71%


C. Added 5 BIZD at $14.95-Commission Free for Vanguard Brokerage Customers



Quote: VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF Overview


Closing Price Yesterday: BIZD $15.36 +$ 0.19 +1.25% 

Sponsor's Website: BIZD - VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF | Snapshot | Income ETF- VanEck


Holdings as of Date of Purchase (12/17/18): 




Last DiscussedItem # 3.A. Bought 10 BIZD at $16.03 and 5 at $15.66-Commission Free To Vanguard Customers (10/31/18)


Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate 


2018 Dividends: $1.5276 per share 




Last Dividend and Ex Date: 12/27/18 at $.4066 per share (all shares participated) 


Announcing VanEck Vectors ETFs' December 2018 Distributions 


Dividend Yield at Total Average Cost of $16.68 (using 2018 total dividend of  $1.5276) = 9.16%


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes


Current Position: 83+ Shares


Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends.  


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule 


D. Added 10 TPVG at $11.2-Used Commission Free Trade




Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)


Closing Price Yesterday: TPVG $11.97 +$0.18 +1.53% 

Website: TriplePoint Venture Growth


TPVG SEC Filings


2017 Annual Report


Last Substantive Discussion: I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 4.A.  Bought 50 TPVG at $12.11-In A Roth IRA Account (12/5/18 Post)


This 10 share purchase was made in my Fidelity account where I have a small ball buying program underway using commission free trades.


Current Position in This Account: 32+ shares


Average Cost Per Share in This Account: $11.66


Maximum Position This Account: 100 Shares


Position in All Accounts: 300+ shares (largest BDC dollar position currently)


Dividends: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)


Special Dividends: $.1 per share with a 12/19/18 ex dividend date


TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Special Distribution of $0.10 per Share


2017 Dividend Classifications: No ROC and No Qualified Dividends




TPVG Trading Profits to Date: $237.56


4. Income Generation- Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:

A. Added 10 DEA on Ex Dividend Date at $17.43 and at $15.74-Used Commission Free Trades:





Quote: Easterly Government Properties Inc.


Closing Price Yesterday: DEA $16.65 +$0.51 +3.16% 

Website: Easterly Government Properties, Inc.


Last DiscussedItem # 4.B. Bought 10 at $17,76-Used Commission Free Trade (10/24/18 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post. I still have the same concerns expressed in that post which explains my go slow and average down in small lots approach.


Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18



2019 Outlook: 


Easterly Government Properties Reports Third Quarter 2018 Results 

Current Position this Account: 40+ shares


Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Average Cost Per Share in this Account = $17.44  


Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 ($1.04 annually)


Dividends | Easterly Government Properties, Inc.


Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.96%


Last Ex Dividend: 12/12/18 

Last Sell DiscussionsSold 10 DEA at $21.44-Used Commission Free Trade (5/17/18 Post)Item 5. A. Sold 50 DEA at $21.59-Used Commission Free Trade (12/11/17 Post)

Total Realized Gain to Date: $120.4


DEA had stock offering last and has been putting that money to work over the past several months. 


Easterly Government Properties Acquires 83,676 SF U.S. Department of the Treasury Facility in Birmingham, Alabama (12/10/18 Post); 


Easterly Government Properties Completes Acquisition of 50,978 SF Drug Enforcement Administration Laboratory in Upper Marlboro, Maryland (11/19/18); 


Easterly Government Properties Acquires Eight of the Fourteen Properties in Previously Announced Portfolio Acquisition (9/17/18) 


Easterly Government Properties Completes Acquisition of 90,085 SF Department of Veterans Affairs Outpatient Facility in San Jose, California (7/12/18)


Easterly Government Properties Announces Pricing of Common Stock Offering (6/19/18)("public offering of 18,000,000 shares of its common stock, consisting of 11,000,000 shares offered directly by the Company and 7,000,000 shares offered in connection with the forward sales agreements described below, at a price to the public of $19.25 per share. The Company has also granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 2,700,000 shares of the Company's common stock at the public offering price.") 


I would not want to see another public offering anywhere near the current price. 


B. Added 10 GOOD at $17.7-Used Commission Free Trade




Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)


Closing Price Yesterday: GOOD $19.56 +$0.63 +3.33% 

Website: Gladstone Commercial | Monthly Dividend REIT


Management: External


Last DiscussedItem # 4.A. Bought 10 GOOD at $18.35 and 10 at $18.15-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trades (10/24/18 Post)


Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 3.A. Bought 50 GOOD at $19.4-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade  (8/8/2018) I may average down in this account with another 50 share purchase.


Current Position in Fidelity Account: 61+ Shares


Maximum Position in this Account: 100 Shares


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Average Total Cost Per Share = $18.69


Dividend: Monthly at $.125 ($1.5 annually)


Gladstone Commercial Corporation Announces Monthly Cash Distributions for January, February and March 2019 

Dividend Yield at Average Total Cost = 8.03%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/19/18


Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD) Dividend Date & History - Nasdaq


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.


Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18




Gladstone Commercial Corporation Reports Results for the Third QuarterEnded September 30, 2018 


Other Recent News


Gladstone Commercial Corporation Announces $21.3 Million Industrial Portfolio Acquisition in Detroit Area 


Gladstone Commercial Corporation Acquires $8.3 Million Industrial Property in Delaware, Ohio 


5. Added 50 DPG at $12.87 in Roth IRA




Quote: Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income Fund Inc. (DPG) 


Closing Price Yesterday: DPG $13.14 +$0.39 +3.06% 

DPG is a leveraged CEF. Leverage generally hovers around 30%. 


The name of this fund fails to suggest that it owns energy infrastructure companies which most individual investors IMO would not classify as utilities And, those holdings have caused this fund to substantially underperform the market since the they entered a bear market in 2014. 


Holdings as of 10/31/18




Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income Fund Inc.


Top 10 Holdings as of 10/31/18




Sponsor's Website: Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income Fund Inc.


The fund uses leverage which only compounds the performance problem when a large number of holdings are in a bear market. The management fee is too high as well. 


The result is a 1 star rating from Morningstar. The 5 year annual average  total return was .65% through 1/7/19.  


So why bother? I am making a small bet that the energy infrastructure stocks will have their day in the sun. And, I am averaging down in this account in an effort to escape with a share profit after harvesting several quarterly dividend payments. 


Data Date of Purchase (12/18/18)

Closing Net Asset Value: $14.73 
Closing Market Price: $12.42
Discount: -15.68

Sourced: DPG Duff & Phelps Global Utility CEF Connect 


Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share with substantial ROC support which has no tax consequences in a Roth IRA 


Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/14/18


Current and Maximum Position in this Account: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends.  


Average Cost Per Share =  $15.21  (113+ shares)


Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.2


Some Prior Discussion Links:  


Item # 1  Sold 100 of 200 DPG at $20.74 (2/17/15 Post)Item # 1 SOLD 50 DPG at $22.42-Roth IRA (11/2914 Post)(snapshot profit $124.99)-Item # 2 Bought Roth IRA: 50 DPG at $19.64 (10/20/14 Post)Item # 8 Sold 113+ DPG at $21.19-Roth IRA (8/19/14 Post)(snapshot of profit=$403.07; total return $662.61 or 38.15%)-Item # 3 Swap Trade Roth IRA: Sold 100 of 150 GYB at $18.03 & Bought 100 DPG at $17.31 (12/12/14 Post)

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

10 comments:

  1. The VIX did manage to close below 20 today, just barely at 19.98. With a few more minutes prior to the market's close, the VIX may have closed over 20 having trading as low as 19.48 with 30 minutes left in the trading day.

    Nonetheless the close is sufficient to restart the Trigger Event day count.

    I am not going to entirely wipe the slate clean however. There were two volatility events last year that just barely failed to qualify using the strict and mechanical definition derived from historical numbers. That is new. The pattern that is shaping up looks and feels like an Unstable Vix Pattern even though the TE, as previously defined, has not ushered the UVP into existence after bumping up to it twice (February and December 2018)

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/charts

    I am going to revise the model's definition of TE to require only 5 days over 26 when and if they occur within the next 3 months and 5 days over 26 with 1 day over 30 within 6 months. This revision is directly tied to what happened last year.

    My approach was to buy into the volatility, though in measured and small amounts. I will now consider selling into declining volatility provided SPX makes a run close to 2632. The close today was at 2,584.96.

    With the Bond Ghouls now expecting no increases in the FF rate this year, with a decrease being assigned a low but greater probability than an increase, intermediate and longer term treasury yields have started to trend up, not down.

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

    Until there is a major scare, such as a breakdown in the trade negotiations with China, I am expecting that trend to continue. Consequently, I was looking around for recently purchased leveraged bond CEFs to sell and liquidate NBB and BHK.

    That move is counter-intuitive. What causes those rates to rise when the market is anticipating a stand pat FED? It is not possible to assign specific percentages to the causes. One cause is that the fear trade is dissipating for now. Another is a typical concern among the Bond Ghouls when the FED dials back its inflation fighting role. The fear is that the FED will be less diligent in snuffing out potential problematic inflation, though the rise so far is nowhere near IMO expressing a serious concern.

    I would emphasize that the U.S. still has a mentally unstable and ignorant President who is capable of causing substantial harm. Trump has zero interest in governing except as a demagogue continually throwing red meat to his followers who, like him, live in an Alternate Reality impenetrable with accurate information.

    ReplyDelete
  2. """The pattern that is shaping up looks and feels like an Unstable Vix Pattern even though the TE, as previously defined, has not ushered the UVP into existence"""

    There's some kind of in between pattern to define.

    What happened last year to cause need to adjust the model? What's the adjustment -- to add follow up days that count as a trigger because of the two near misses?

    That first near miss was a good signal, to get back into/stay in the market.

    I haven't had a chance yet, but are any past patterns able to give a clue on this particular type of pattern?

    I've thought that the instability in admin produces a different pattern in life, and it's reflected in this (market) too.

    2000 - everyone was talking about dotcoms making us rich at parties
    2007 everyone was talking about skyhigh realestate prices making us rich at parties
    2018 - everyone's talking about politics (at wakes to sanity)

    That's the exuberance or excess of today.

    I don't know what it means to the market. No idea.

    Looks like the ride back down is starting again. Market was near the 2620 resistance. Wonder if it's going all the way back down to test lows, or will bounce against it a few time and break upward.

    Do you have any info on TXN? When looking at fundamentals, they seemed solid and down enough to not be a crazy buy/hold. I bought some recently early in the ride down. AAPL's down on their report. The worries about end to their core iphone business seems overblown. Maybe they're a good buy now that they're down?

    I don't tend to buy reports that SC is almost done. But I'd like to buy them. Very much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. T: I read a report yesterday that 4 out of 5 households are living paycheck to paycheck. Those households are the backbone of the U.S. economy. The tax reduction package passed by the GOP has not changed that fact and was not intended or designed to do so. Debt for those households is accelerating again.

      We are now seeing an acceleration of earnings warnings among S & P 500 companies. Global growth is slowing. The FED is probably on hold this year due to growth concerns. The U.S. economy will be in a 10 year expansion mode next June. The yield curve is flat and has inverted at places. The nation continues to be politically dysfunctional as evidenced most recently by the government shutdown. The China trade issues are not resolved. All of those matters are combining to cause more volatility and rational concerns about the economic growth cycle coming to an end.

      Some investors, including me, are becoming more concerned about what may happen during a worldwide recession morphing into a financial crisis given the excessive debt levels. The solution to the last debt bomb explosion was to incur $80T or so in new debt since 2007.

      Apple's earnings warning does not signal the "end" of the IPhone business but it was a serious warning. I have had concerns about Apple being able to grow earnings and revenues as the smart phone market becomes saturated and competition heats up. What is the next big thing that drives growth? I suspect that Apple's stock price will pop when and if there is a resolution of the trade dispute with China. I suspect that Apple's revenue shortfall in China was caused in large part by consumers boycotting U.S. products.

      The TE adjustment was time specific over a 3 or 6 month period from yesterday. The adjustment was to lower the number of days required for a TE within that time window.

      The fact that there was a long period of movement below 20 between the two volatility events last year is inconsistent with a UVP. Caution and restraint are still warranted IMO. For new purchases now, this has more of a trading market feel than a buy and hold.

      Delete
    2. Hello South Gent,

      I think this is one of the most cogent and insightful explanations of dilemmas that both the economic and real-world face in the coming years


      The real question at the bottom of all this to me is what is this potential debt dilemma lead to.

      I know in 1929 to 39 there were tremendous difficulties around the world that probably led to World War II.

      And I wonder in your thinking if you have developed any scenarios for outcomes should these events happen in the next few years.

      That is, instead of the near depression what is your level of concern of a world wide depression as in 20s and if so, what is the world look like them and is there any way out.

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. G: There will be another Great Depression but the timing is unknowable. I realize that does not help.

      My current opinion is that the next major debt crisis will be the most severe in world history, which will occur during a worldwide recession, with no clear and easy way out since governments are too indebted now in order to borrow and spend their way out again, which was the solution for the Near Depression.

      Major economies have grown so much that additional debt has far less impact on growth now than prior to 2008.

      So tens of trillions more in new debt would have to be incurred to have the same stimulus impact; and that amount of debt will not be a solution to the next financial crisis since it will not be available.

      In short, the world spent its wad IMO to prevent the last recession from becoming another Great Depression and to keep growth moving up over the past ten years.

      The first issue for most households during a long and major economic downturn will be servicing existing debt obligations.The solution that predicament is to have no debt when that economic downturn arrives.

      It is hard to know now what will be the "safe" investments. Will the U.S. treasury default? If that appears unlikely at the time in question, then treasuries would be an option along with other sovereign debt that is highly rated (e.g. Switzerland).

      Will the FDIC be able to make whole depositors in failed banks? I have no opinion now, though I recognize the FDIC is woefully undercapitalized to protect depositors for a Great Depression type of banking collapse. And, the other issue is whether the U.S. government would then be able to fund the FDIC's deficits or whether the FDIC could raise premiums to banks, as it did during the Near Depression, without causing a cascade of more bank failures.

      So when will U.S. voters agree on a plan of action to reduce annual budget deficits approaching or exceeding 1 trillion by meaningfully cutting spending and raising taxes.

      I do not see that happening.

      Cutting spending to reduce the annual deficit to $500B would cause a meaningful contraction in growth and howls among those negatively impacted or whose ideology supports the programs being cut (e.g. defense spending or food stamps)

      In short, I believe the world will have the pedal to the metal and will hit a steel barrier going 200MPH without tapping the brakes.

      The only question is when.

      My best guess now is within 10 to 15 years.

      So that is too far in the future to cause the Stocks Jocks any concern.

      The Bond Ghouls IMO are more attune to it with interest rates remaining stubbornly far below historical norms, recognizing in part that a rise to normal levels would actually significantly accelerate the Day of Reckoning. In that regard, a mere doubling the average weighted interest of U.S. debt to 5% or so, with no increase in the outstanding debt, would cause the annual interest payments to go over $1 trillion.

      Delete
    4. Regarding the U.S. debt situation, I noted that Powell stated this afternoon that he is "very worried" about it, as he should be.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/fed-chairman-powell-says-he-is-very-worried-about-growing-amount-of-us-debt.html

      I am not discussing in the comments here a present problem that requires a change in asset allocation today.

      This emerging problem is on a trajectory that is unlikely to change so the end game can be predicted with some certainty.

      The issue being presented is a longer term planning one. An understanding of the growing debt issues and their potential ramifications have to be monitored closely.

      Facts need to be gathered and assimilated to more fully understand when the problem is likely to become acute and how to respond to it.

      The only clear responses are to be out of personal debt when the problems coalesce to cause a major financial crisis and to own in abundance "safe assets". Relatively needs to modify "safe" in that context.

      Until the Day of Reckoning is close at hand, it would be speculation to identify what will be the "safe" assets.

      Stocks would not be listed in that category. Needless to say, they do not respond well to a deep recession that precipitates a banking crisis, a point that will not likely earn me a Nobel Prize in economics.

      The question instead will be what bonds and bank deposits will be relatively safe; what currencies, if any, will hold their value; and whether precious metals will be an alternative to fiat currencies that may turn into so much confetti when and if central banks monetize the debt (QE on steroids implemented due to a lack of other buyers), the EU breaks up and several nations default on their debts.

      One commentator recently remarked that a rise in interest rates now would be suicide, and that is not hyperbole when modified by the words "meaningful and persistent".

      https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/gundlach-says-stocks-are-breaking-down-bonds-are-overvalued-and-the-fed-is-on-a-suicide-mission.html

      It is just hard to fathom how anyone believes the current path will end up in anything other than a worldwide disaster. As I have mentioned in the past, the U.S budget deficit was less than 1 trillion in 1980 and is now growing at $1 trillion, give or take, per year. The interest cost on that debt will exceed $1 trillion per year, even without a rise in the average interest cost, within a few years at the current rate of debt accumulation. And, that is only the tip of the iceberg.

      Delete
  3. Hello southgent .

    CNBC, I saw a guy from Morgan Stanley who referenced the 200 WEEK moving average; Is that @ 10 year? could be this even believable??

    Is the 200 d moving average = to one trading year??

    thanks



    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/08/top-strategist-who-called-the-market-sell-off-says-its-not-safe-to-buy-stocks-yet.html


    ps , none of these market mavens even blinked when he said this!!!
    thats 2008 or @ s and p around 1000

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. G: I interpreted his comments to mean SPX 200 day SMA was pierced to the downside, but the market did bounce off the 200 week line which he viewed as a positive. That would be a line drawn over a 3.84+ Year period.

      I would agree with most of what he said about a rolling bear market, the acceleration of earnings warnings, the growing worldwide growth deceleration, and the technical damage to the market which could easily bring out an abundance of sellers when and if the SPX approaches its former support lines that were pierced with gusto in early December.

      Delete
  4. Both AT & T and General Mills were ex dividend yesterday. The end of tax loss selling pressure may be giving the shares a boost. The ongoing growth slowdown and a stand pat FED may be helping those stocks as well given their dividend yields and defensive characteristics.

    General Mills
    $41.11+$0.68 +1.68%
    Last Updated: Jan 10, 2019 at 12:19 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis

    AT&T Inc.
    $30.19 +$0.0961 +0.32%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/t

    Both stocks remain out-of-favor, however, and are contrarian plays or bets that the price declines last year were overdone. Both companies still have issues and problems.

    My last small ball buys in these stocks were as follows, which highlights the improved price trend:

    GIS:
    5 at $36.75 (12/17/18)
    10 at $38.3 (12/7/18)

    T:
    10 at $26.95 (12/26/18)
    5 at $27.7 (12/24/18)

    All buys in both stocks were made with commission free trades. I am reinvesting the dividends.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/01/portfolio-allocation-and-management-as.html

    ReplyDelete