Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: AHTPRI, IRT, JRI, LXP

Economy: 

Donald will be meeting with China's President on Saturday.  

Trump, Xi May Agree to Formally Reopen Trade Talks at G-20 - Bloomberg; U.S. aims to restart China trade talks, will not accept conditions on tariff use - Reuters A cease fire on more tariffs and a reopening of trade talks may be the most likely outcome. 

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says US-China trade deal was 90% complete

The Stock Jocks are now assigning a near zero percent chance that Donald will activate what is known as List 4 tariffs (an additional 25% on about $325 billion in China's exports). USTR Indicates Tariffs on Chinese "List 4" Goods Forthcoming; Details Expected on Monday, May 13 | White & Case LLP The second most likely scenario IMO would be an activation of the List 4 tariffs. We will know more in a few days.    

Powell says the Fed is ‘grappling’ with whether to cut interest rates - MarketWatch After Powell made those remarks, the Stock Jocks became temporarily concerned that the FED would not deliver next month on a .25% cut, but quickly reached a comfort level that Powell was simply saying that a .5% cut in July may not happen. 

The probability of a .5% cut next month did come down, but the Bond Ghouls are still assigning a 100%  probability to a .25% cut. 

Probabilities July 2019 meeting

Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool

PwC says US companies expected to spend 6% more on health care next year

Home price gains shrink slightly The rate of increase in home prices is shrinking Y-O-Y. 

US consumer confidence June 2019 (the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 121.5 in June from 134.1 in May)

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

Fed bashing and other policy blunders are the rule under Trump - MarketWatch

Exclusive: a leveraged-lending bust could hit economy quicker than subprime blowup, warns ex-FDIC boss Sheila Bair - MarketWatch

Cramer: 'The real world is much worse than the stock market indicates' I would agree. 

UBS: Globe heading for recession and bear market if trade talks fail Hardly out on a limb here. 

Beijing wants US to cancel inappropriate actions against Chinese firms

Goldman Sachs: Low volatility stocks beat the market after rate cut

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Trump:

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani called Donald "mentally retarded" in response to the ridiculously feeble new sanctions imposed by the U.S. 

Iran does not view negotiations with Donald as a viable course. Iran calls new U.S. sanctions ‘outrageous and idiotic,’ warns that path to diplomacy is permanently closed - The Washington Post 

Trump says attack by Iran on anything American will be met with 'obliteration' - CNN 

So much for proportional responses. 

Donald declared that the NYT committed a “virtual act of Treason” by reporting U.S. cyber warfare activities against Russia.  

At the same time, Don the Authoritarian declared that the treasonous report was "ALSO, NOT TRUE!". 

F. Scott Fitzgerald noted many years ago that “the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” (emphasis added) The Crack-Up - Kindle edition by F. Scott Fitzgerald, Edmund Wilson. Literature & Fiction Kindle eBooks @ Amazon.com. Maybe that explains a lot about one of Donald's problems. Donald does not see the inconsistency in claiming that the NYT committed treason by publishing a story that is not true.  

Trump vows mass immigration arrests, removals of ‘millions of illegal aliens’ starting next week I thought, based on the Duck's prior bloviations, that he had already deported millions of "aliens" but then the latest installment of MIB proves that they are still here. Men in Black: International (2019) - IMDb ICE was prepared to deport 2000 illegal immigrants last weekend, rather than millions, and then the Duck postponed that round up.  

Fact-checking President Trump’s reelection campaign kickoff - The Washington Post Donald is of course unable to tell the truth and is enthusiastically cheered for making demonstrably false statements. 

Trump, questioned on child separation policy, insists, ‘I brought the families together’ In TrumpWorld, Donald did not separate the children from their parents but brought them together. During his interview with Telemundo, Donald became very indignant when asked about his administration's child separation policy, claiming that Obama was responsible, and he was the one who reunited the parents and children. Donald Trump, again, falsely says Obama had family separation policy | PolitiFact; Fact check: Trump makes three false claims about Hispanics in Telemundo interview 

Journalists generally fail to expose Trump's lies in real time. That was the case in Chuck Todd's interview with Trump where he made the same knowingly false statements summarized in the previous paragraph about child separation. 

Trump’s lies need to be exposed in real time - The Washington Post 

Sure Donald will react very badly to being contradicted with the truth in real time, but confronting this pathological liar and demagogue with strong authoritarian tendencies needs to happen as he lies during interviews and press conferences. 

Donald has and will exercise the growing powers of an Imperial Presidency with less safeguards than at anytime in U.S. history. The press needs to step up to the plate more rather than being cowed by Donald.   

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{ The Supreme Court is not likely to restrain Trump's expansion of presidential powers. The current majority in the Supreme Court, who are incorrectly called "conservatives", will aid and abet the concentration of even more power in the President. An example is the recent decision in Trump v. Hawaii which has similarities with the Plessy v. Ferguson: 163 U.S. 537 (1896) decision and other cases where the Supreme Court ignored evidence of unlawful intent. 

Census-citizenship case: Supreme Court may once again affirm 'white rule' - CNN; The Census Case Is About White Man's Government - The Atlantic 

In the Plessy case, Louisiana passed a law that prevented African Americans including those of mixed heritage from rising in the same railroad car as "pure" caucasians. 

Mr. Plessy, who was seven-eighths caucasian, challenged the law by seating in the white's only section. He was arrested and his conviction was upheld by the Supreme Court in a 7 to 1 decision with one Justice not participating. The Court could have cared less about the clear and convincing purpose of the law as being race based, as it will likely do so again in the upcoming census question about citizenship. 

For most of U.S. history, the Supreme Court has been a strongly reactionary force in the U.S.. There was a brief period of moderation in the 20th century and a clear line of "liberal" decisions in the privacy right creation cases, starting with Griswold v. Connecticut: 381 U.S. 479 (1965) and culminating in Roe v. Wade: 410 U.S. 113 (1973), a decision that will either be overturned by the current majority or limited so much in scope that it is no longer viable as a practical matter.  

For example, instead of using the 14th Amendment to protect the rights of newly freed slaves, which was its clear purpose, the Court in a series of late 19th century decisions used that constitutional amendment to protect the rights of corporations, vesting in that legal fiction the rights of a "person", and actually overturned in an 8 to 1 decision the Civil Rights Act of 1875 that banned discrimination in public places. 

Civil Rights Cases: 109 U.S. 3 (1883); 

'Corporations Are People' Is Built on a 19th-Century Lie - The Atlantic; 

We the Corporations: How American Businesses Won Their Civil Rights; 

Amazon.com: Inherently Unequal: The Betrayal of Equal Rights by the Supreme Court, 1865-1903  

The Supreme Court upheld the reasoning of the Civil Rights Cases, 109 U.S. 3 (1883) in United States v. Morrison, decided in 2000, that invalidated parts of the Violence Against Women Act } 

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The "conservative" Duncan Hunter (R-CA) was reelected notwithstanding the federal indictments against him. Prosecutors have now added claims that he used campaign funds to fund five different extramarital affairs with congressional staffers and lobbyists. Federal prosecutors allege Hunter repeatedly misused campaign funds during affairs Hunter's wife plead guilty earlier this month. Duncan Hunter's wife pleads guilty to misusing campaign funds | TheHill Previously, Hunter blamed his wife for his problems. Before Blaming Wife For Fraud, Hunter Repeatedly Cheated On Her 

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1. Eliminations-Equity REITs:

I am picking up more yield by buying 200 JRI shares discussed in Item # 4 below.  

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy (contains snapshots of round-trip trades)

A. Sold 150 IRT at $11.73:

Profit Snapshot: $799.79

Quote: Independence Realty Trust Inc. (IRT)
SEC Filings
IRT Apartment Map
2018 Annual Report
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/19

IRT Realized Gains to Date: +$2,365.99 ($1,566.2 in prior trades)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)

For the reasons discussed in prior posts, it is my opinion that this REIT needs to cut its dividend.

Dividend Yield at $11.73 = 6.14%

Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Sold 121+ IRT at $10.91 (6/8/19 Post)(profit snapshot +$427.88)

I summarized the reasons for selling this stock here: Item # 3.A. Sold 127 IRT at $10.52-Used Commission Free Trade (5/29/18 Post)

IMO, this REIT is overvalued at this price. I would attribute the recent price spurt to individuals buying yield as interest rates decline. Speaking for myself, I would prefer have the realized gain now than the future dividend payments.

B. Sold 155+ LXP at $9.46:

Quote: Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)

Profit: +$6.37

I will need a much lower price to buy this one again. I am not sure what that price will be, but would probably want one at less than $7.

LXP Realized Gains to Date:  $1,914.49 ($1,908.12 in prior trades)

Last Sell Discussion: This post discusses the reasons why I now classify this REIT as deservedly hated. Item # 1.B. Sold 108+ LXP at $9.45-Used Commission Free Trade (2/6/19 Post)

Dividends: As previously discussed, LXP announced several months ago that it was going to slash its dividend. (see Lexington Realty Trust Announces Disposition of 21 Office Assets for $726 Million to Joint Venture (9/4/18 Press Release)

The quarterly dividend was at $.1775 per share or $.71 annually. 

Dividends | lxp.com

At that penny rate, the dividend yield at $9.46 was 7.5%.

LXP has now cut the rate to $.1025 per share or $.41 per share. Lexington Realty Trust Announces Quarterly Common Share Dividend

After the slashed 42+% slash in the penny rate, the dividend yield at $9.46 will be 4.3%.

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Bought 10 LXP at $8.81-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade (8/19/18 Post)

LXP SEC Filings
Portfolio Map
5 Year Chart: Ugly

2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

A problem in managing a short term bond and CD income portfolio when rates are declining is early redemptions by issuers. I do not want to receive proceeds early. 

The following snapshot is a notice that HCP will redeem on 7/22/19 its 2.625% senior unsecured bonds maturing on 2/1/20. 

There will likely be a tiny make whole payment. The issuer could have avoided that payment by waiting to redeem within 90 days of the maturity date. Page S-21 of the Prospectus I own 4 bonds in my Fidelity account and 2 in my IB account.   

The Synchrony 3% SU will be redeemed one month early: 

For this bond, the issuer can redeem at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest on or after 7/15/19 until the 8/15/19 maturity date, which is an option that it has exercised. Page 16 Prospectus It is relatively common for a prospectus to be permit an optional redemption without a make whole premium payment to par value within 1 to 3 months prior to the maturity date.   

$9K in adds

A. Bought 2 Simmons Bank 2.4% CDs (monthly interest payments) Maturing on on 12/27/19:

Issuer: Operating bank of Simmons First National Corp (SFNC) 

SFNC | Simmons First National Analyst Estimates

B. Bought 2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs Maturing on 10/21/19 (4 month CDs):

Issuer: Operating bank for IBERIABANK (IBKC)
IBKC | IBERIABANK Corp. Analyst Estimates
IBERIABANK Corporation Reports First Quarter Results

IBERIABANK Corporation Announces Pricing of $100 Million Preferred Stock Offering

C. Bought 2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs Maturing on 1/21/20:

D. Bought 3 Customers Bank 2.4% CDs Maturing on 1/27/20:

Issuer: Operating Bank of Customers Bancorp Inc. (CUBI)

CUBI | Customers Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates
Rated 5 stars by Bankrate.com

E. Sold 1 McDonalds 2.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/22-In a Roth IRA Account:

Profit Snapshot: $14.21

Item # 5.A. Bought 1 MCD 2022 SU a a TC of 98.244 (3/25/18 Post)

Finra Page: Bond Detail

Issuer: McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
MCD | McDonald's Corp. Analyst Estimates

Sold at 100.551
YTM at 100.551 = 2.404%
Proceeds at 100.351 (after $2 Vanguard commission)

When this bond was bought, it was classified as an intermediate term bond, but is now classified as short term since the maturity is within 3 years.

I last sold this bond at 99.536: Item # 4.D (3/31/19 Post)-Item # 4.B. Bought 1 MCD 2.625% SU at a TC of 97.822 (5/31/18 Post)

3. Intermediate Bond Basket Strategy: 

A. Sold 2 Public Service of Colorado 2.5% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 3/15/23-In a Roth IRA Account: 

I will consider buying these bonds back at a price lower than my last purchase price. 

Profit Snapshot: +$7.25

Item # 3.A. Bought 1 Public Service of Colorado First Mortgage Bond at a TC of 98.858 (1/28/18 Post) 

Finra Page: Bond Detail

Issuer: Public Service of Colorado, a wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc.  (XEL) 

Sold at 99.48

YTM at 99.48 = 2.645%

4. Bought 100 of the Stock CEF JRI at $16.47 ($1 IB commission) and 100  at $16.59 (Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade):

100 JRI at $16.47-IB

100 JRI at $16.5-Fidelity 

Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview

Closing Price Yesterday:  JRI $16.60 -$0.08 -0.48% 

These purchases were in response to the rapid decline in interest rates.

Sponsor's Website: JRI- Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (last SEC filed semi-annual shareholder report for the period ending 12/31/18)

Number of Holdings: 424 as of 5/31/19

Holdings List as of 3/31/19:  SEC Filing

The holdings include global REIT common stocks, U.S. equity REIT preferred stocks, utility common stocks, and utility bonds.

Leveraged at 29.52% as of 3/31/19

"As of the end of the reporting period, the Fund has a $231,500,000 (maximum commitment amount) committed financing agreement (“Borrowings”). As of the end of the reporting period, the outstanding balance on these Borrowings was $215,225,000.

Interest is charged on these Borrowings at 1-Month LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) plus 0.65% per annum on the amount borrowed and 0.13% per annum on the undrawn balance." Page 48 Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (as of 12/31/18)(emphasis added).

Chart: Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), based on U.S. Dollar
Bonds & Rates (scroll to Libor rates)

Market Data Day of Trade (6/14/19):

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $18.65
Closing Market Price: $16.47
Discount: -11.69%

Market Data Day of Trade (6/20/19)
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share  = $19
Closing Market Price: $16.75
Discount: -11.84%

Sourced: JRI Nuveen Real Asset Inc & Growth  CEF Connect

Dividends: Currently, monthly at $.106 per share or $1.272 annually (some ROC support)

Dividend Yield at $16.47 = 7.72%
Dividend Yield at $16.59 = 7.67%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/13/19

The goal is simply to harvest a total return in excess of the dividend yield before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis. 

Rated currently at 4 stars by Morningstar

5. Bought 50 AHTPRI at $22.3 ($1 IB Commission): 

Quote:  Ashford Hospitality Trust 7.5% Preferred Series I

Closing Price Yesterday: AHT-PI $22.33 +$0.12  +0.54% 

Issuer: Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)-A HOTEL REIT

AHT 5 Year Chart: Long term bear market with massive underperformance compared to a REIT index fund 

Website: Ashford Hospitality Trust 

AHTPRI Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Optional Call by Issuer: At par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends on or after 11/17/22
Capital Structure: Senior only to common stock
Stopper Clause: Yes (enforces preferred shareholders superior claim to cash vs. common shareholders only)
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified (pass through entity)
Preferred Stock Risk Level: High Risk IMO 

Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/29/19
Next Ex Dividend Date: 6/27/19

Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

SEC Filings 

2018 Annual Report 

Dividend Yield at $22.3 = 8.41%

My last transaction was to sell 50 shares in my Schwab account where I no longer have commission free trades and would have to pay the regular $4.95 commission now. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3.B. Sold 50 AHTPRI at $23.16 (4/20/19 Post) I did receive the 2019 first quarter dividend on that lot: 

When trading these high risk preferred stocks, I view it as a victory that I bought back a 50 share lot at a lower price without missing a quarterly dividend payment.  

I also own 50 shares in my Fidelity account, bought in two lots using commission free trades: Item 1.B. Bought 30 AHTPRI at $21.86-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18); Added 20 AHTPRI at $18.52 Used Commission Free Trade (12/29/18 Post) The average cost per share for that 50 share lot is $20.52 before ROC adjustments. The entire 2018 dividend was classified as ROC. AHT 2018 Tax Reporting Info Press Release

This preferred stock come under some selling pressure after AHT slashed its common share dividend by 50%, going from a quarterly rate of $.12 per share to $.06. Ashford Trust Declares Dividends For Second Quarter Of 2019 Needless to say that tanked the common shares. 

AHT was paying out too much to the common shareholders given its free cash flow numbers. I view would that slash as a plus to the preferred stock holders. The preferred shareholders would be fine with a slash to a 1 cent per share annual dividend.  

Nonetheless, as I have said in the past, AHT preferred stocks are risky and that is reflected in the preferred stock yield. 

The REIT is externally managed by Ashford Inc. (AINC) which I view as a major negative. 

Most of the hotels are managed by Remington Lodging & Hospitality, LLC, that is in the process of being acquired by Ashford. SEC Filings 

There are multiple conflicts involving Monty J. Bennett and Mr. Archie Bennett, Jr. with Ashford, Ashford Trust and Remington (see particularly conflict discussions in AHT's 2018 Annual Report at pages 12, 19-22.) It is not arguable IMO that AHT shareholders would be better off with competent internal managers and non-related hotel managers. The positive contributions made by Monty and Archie Bennett to AHT shareholders is not discernible IMO.  

Importantly, there is a lot of senior secured mortgage debt which is senior of course to equity capital. Page 20 The mortgage debt  was at $4.197+ Billion as of 3/31/19 excluding deferred loan costs. 

It appears that all or virtually all of the hotels have mortgage debt which is relevant to both common and preferred stock owners.  

If there was no or negligible senior unsecured debt, the preferred shareholder would be more comfortable in a bankruptcy when close to half of the properties had no liens attached to them. 

Would there be anything left for the preferred shareholders in an AHT bankruptcy where the secured creditors took control over the mortgaged properties. 

I do not know, but I doubt there would be much for the preferred shareholders to pick over (possibly they could cause enough trouble that the senior lien creditors will throw them a bone). 

On a more positive side, a lot of that mortgage debt is based on a spread to Libor rates which are coming down fast. I did not see a reference to which Libor rate is the base rate but it looks like it is the 3 month Libor based on a reference to the average interest rate. 3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), based on U.S. Dollar | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Last Earnings Report: Ashford Trust Reports First Quarter 2019 Results (note how the company touted its dividend yield at the former rate in that release)

When computing AFFO, AHT does not exclude routine maintenance expenditures. Consequently, the AFFO is not a real free cash flow number. 

Hotels require a large and ongoing capital expenditures.    

AHT does own 598,000 shares of Ashford Inc. (AINC), or about 24.2% of the total as of 3/31/19. Page 19 However, AINC's stock is in a waterfall chart formation. Use AINC 2 Year Chart 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.