Economy:
Home builder sentiment hits 11-month low as trade war takes a hit - MarketWatch; Homebuilder sentiment falls to lowest point in almost a year
Privately owned housing starts declined 1.4% Y-O-Y in July. Privately owned housing completions were down .8% year-over-year and down 1.7% from June 2018. New Construction.pdf
Privately owned housing starts declined 1.4% Y-O-Y in July. Privately owned housing completions were down .8% year-over-year and down 1.7% from June 2018. New Construction.pdf
U.S. productivity surges in spring to more than three-year high - MarketWatch; Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2018, Preliminary
U.S. consumer sentiment drops to 11-month low in August - MarketWatch
Blistering U.S. economy still surging at midsummer, leading index shows - MarketWatch; The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July | The Conference Board
+++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The market received a lift last Thursday as China came back to the bargaining table but only with low level officials. China, U.S. to hold lower-level trade talks in late August | Reuters
The purpose of the meetings have been described as focusing on the Yuan's value or preparing the way for a November summit to resolve all outstanding trade issues. US-China trade talks: Weak Chinese yuan in focus as dollar strengthens or US, China plot roadmap for meeting between Trump, Xi to resolve trade dispute: Dow Jones
It would not be surprising to see something happen just before the mid-term election that will lead Donald to trumpet the best trade deal in world history.
That news came on the same day that the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer opined that he hopes for a breakthrough in the NAFTA within days. Top U.S. trade official hopes for NAFTA 'breakthrough' in days | Reuters He has been optimistic for awhile, so I would not call that new news.
Those two news items together, coupled with good earnings reports from Cisco and WMT, were sufficient to send the Stock Jocks into party mode last Thursday.
Of all of these data points from last Thursday, the most important IMO was the favorable earnings report from WMT. It is the typical WMT shopper who is the bedrock of the U.S. economy. Walmart U.S. Q2 Comps Grew 4.5% and Walmart U.S. eCommerce Sales Grew 40%, Q2 GAAP Net Loss Per Share of $0.29; Adjusted EPS of $1.29; Walmart sales rise the most in more than 10 years - MarketWatch
The U.S. stock bull market which started on March 9, 2009 will become the longest next Wednesday, surpassing the previous record set between October 1990 and March 2000. This bull market in stocks stands just a week away from the history books - MarketWatch This measurement uses the standard definition of a bull market which continues until interrupted by a 20% decline in the S & P 500.
One noteworthy point here is that the run up to March 2000, the previous longest period, ended badly with a 49%+ decline in the S & P 500.
Another previous long jaunt between October 2002 and October 2007 ended with a 58+% decline. The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?-Advisor Perspectives
One could also make an argument that there has been a bull market in U.S. stocks since 1932 when the DJIA bottomed near 30: Dow Jones - 100 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends (uncheck "Inflation-Adjusted" box to see nominal numbers)
While there were long periods where the market went sideways with a lot of up and down chop, the overall dominant trend has been up. The problem with that assessment is that humans have a limited life span and an even more limited period to invest meaningful amounts of money to meet their financial goals.
Then how many individuals can withstand a 16 year period (January 1966-July 1982) when the average annual total return of the S & P 500, adjusted for inflation, was a negative 1.798%, or who did not bail in 1974, 2000-2002 or 2008 at the worst possible times.
The market received a lift last Thursday as China came back to the bargaining table but only with low level officials. China, U.S. to hold lower-level trade talks in late August | Reuters
The purpose of the meetings have been described as focusing on the Yuan's value or preparing the way for a November summit to resolve all outstanding trade issues. US-China trade talks: Weak Chinese yuan in focus as dollar strengthens or US, China plot roadmap for meeting between Trump, Xi to resolve trade dispute: Dow Jones
It would not be surprising to see something happen just before the mid-term election that will lead Donald to trumpet the best trade deal in world history.
That news came on the same day that the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer opined that he hopes for a breakthrough in the NAFTA within days. Top U.S. trade official hopes for NAFTA 'breakthrough' in days | Reuters He has been optimistic for awhile, so I would not call that new news.
Those two news items together, coupled with good earnings reports from Cisco and WMT, were sufficient to send the Stock Jocks into party mode last Thursday.
Of all of these data points from last Thursday, the most important IMO was the favorable earnings report from WMT. It is the typical WMT shopper who is the bedrock of the U.S. economy. Walmart U.S. Q2 Comps Grew 4.5% and Walmart U.S. eCommerce Sales Grew 40%, Q2 GAAP Net Loss Per Share of $0.29; Adjusted EPS of $1.29; Walmart sales rise the most in more than 10 years - MarketWatch
The U.S. stock bull market which started on March 9, 2009 will become the longest next Wednesday, surpassing the previous record set between October 1990 and March 2000. This bull market in stocks stands just a week away from the history books - MarketWatch This measurement uses the standard definition of a bull market which continues until interrupted by a 20% decline in the S & P 500.
One noteworthy point here is that the run up to March 2000, the previous longest period, ended badly with a 49%+ decline in the S & P 500.
Another previous long jaunt between October 2002 and October 2007 ended with a 58+% decline. The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?-Advisor Perspectives
One could also make an argument that there has been a bull market in U.S. stocks since 1932 when the DJIA bottomed near 30: Dow Jones - 100 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends (uncheck "Inflation-Adjusted" box to see nominal numbers)
While there were long periods where the market went sideways with a lot of up and down chop, the overall dominant trend has been up. The problem with that assessment is that humans have a limited life span and an even more limited period to invest meaningful amounts of money to meet their financial goals.
Then how many individuals can withstand a 16 year period (January 1966-July 1982) when the average annual total return of the S & P 500, adjusted for inflation, was a negative 1.798%, or who did not bail in 1974, 2000-2002 or 2008 at the worst possible times.
Turkey doubles tariffs on some U.S. imports; lira rallies | Reuters (8/14/18); Turkey slaps tariffs on US booze, cars, business groups urge diplomacy: CNBC
Payment seen unlikely on $1.1 billion in maturing Venezuela bonds | Reuters
Payment seen unlikely on $1.1 billion in maturing Venezuela bonds | Reuters
‘If there were ever a moment to harvest gains … it is August 2018,’ warns Guggenheim’s Minerd - MarketWatch
About one month ago, the Duck claimed that the strong dollar puts the U.S. "at a disadvantage". Last Thursday, he praised the strength of the USD.
A strong USD has both good and bad impacts. A strong dollar reduces the cost of imported goods and consequently places downward pressure on inflation. If the strength of the USD is in part due to capital inflows into the U.S. bond and stock markets, that is a positive for those markets.
On the other hand, the strong USD makes U.S. exports less competitive and will negatively impact earnings for multinationals who will convert foreign earnings into USDs when reporting results in USDs.
About one month ago, the Duck claimed that the strong dollar puts the U.S. "at a disadvantage". Last Thursday, he praised the strength of the USD.
A strong USD has both good and bad impacts. A strong dollar reduces the cost of imported goods and consequently places downward pressure on inflation. If the strength of the USD is in part due to capital inflows into the U.S. bond and stock markets, that is a positive for those markets.
On the other hand, the strong USD makes U.S. exports less competitive and will negatively impact earnings for multinationals who will convert foreign earnings into USDs when reporting results in USDs.
++++
Trump:
Rain on Donald's Parade:
The estimated cost of Donald's military parade has skyrocketed to $92M from the earlier estimate of about $12M. Someone apparently thought that was a bit much before the mid-term election so Donald's parade was postponed by the Pentagon until 2019. Trump's military parade in Washington now delayed until 2019
The Duck then cancelled the parade for this year, blaming D.C. politicians who wanted the local government compensated for its costs connected to Donald's parade.
The Duck did not mention in his tweets that his original cost was $12M and the Pentagon's most current estimate was $92M for Donald's photo op with the District of Columbia receiving about $21.6M of that total. Trump nixes military parade over price tag, says he'll go to Paris parade instead - CBS News
D.C. Mayor's Response to the Duck:
White Nationalism:
White Nationalism is gaining more traction worldwide. The latest example is happening in Sweden. Far-right Sweden Democrats hope to topple century of socialism
White Nationalists have already taken over the U.S. government. One of their immigration policies is to stop what is known as chain migration.
Chain migration is much derided in Trump's America, except when the relatives are caucasian and have money; or are just a relative of a Trumpster.
Melania Trump's parents become citizens through 'chain migration'-The Guardian;
Stephen Miller is a 'hypocrite' and product of chain migration, his uncle David Glosser wrote - The Washington Post
Melania Trump’s immigration lawyer calls president’s attacks on 'chain migration' 'unconscionable'
8 times Trump slammed 'chain migration'-ABC News
Laura Ingraham has been peddling again what is viewed as acceptable White Nationalism jive in TrumpNation: Laura Ingraham Blasted After Warning Viewers of 'Demographic Changes'; Analysis: Laura Ingraham’s ‘demographic changes’ monologue is a rallying cry to Trump’s base
Fox News' Laura Ingraham: 'The America We Know And Love Doesn't Exist Anymore' - YouTube The Trumpsters eat this stuff up.
Rain on Donald's Parade:
The estimated cost of Donald's military parade has skyrocketed to $92M from the earlier estimate of about $12M. Someone apparently thought that was a bit much before the mid-term election so Donald's parade was postponed by the Pentagon until 2019. Trump's military parade in Washington now delayed until 2019
The Duck then cancelled the parade for this year, blaming D.C. politicians who wanted the local government compensated for its costs connected to Donald's parade.
The Duck did not mention in his tweets that his original cost was $12M and the Pentagon's most current estimate was $92M for Donald's photo op with the District of Columbia receiving about $21.6M of that total. Trump nixes military parade over price tag, says he'll go to Paris parade instead - CBS News
D.C. Mayor's Response to the Duck:
White Nationalism:
White Nationalism is gaining more traction worldwide. The latest example is happening in Sweden. Far-right Sweden Democrats hope to topple century of socialism
White Nationalists have already taken over the U.S. government. One of their immigration policies is to stop what is known as chain migration.
Chain migration is much derided in Trump's America, except when the relatives are caucasian and have money; or are just a relative of a Trumpster.
Melania Trump's parents become citizens through 'chain migration'-The Guardian;
Stephen Miller is a 'hypocrite' and product of chain migration, his uncle David Glosser wrote - The Washington Post
Melania Trump’s immigration lawyer calls president’s attacks on 'chain migration' 'unconscionable'
8 times Trump slammed 'chain migration'-ABC News
Laura Ingraham has been peddling again what is viewed as acceptable White Nationalism jive in TrumpNation: Laura Ingraham Blasted After Warning Viewers of 'Demographic Changes'; Analysis: Laura Ingraham’s ‘demographic changes’ monologue is a rallying cry to Trump’s base
Fox News' Laura Ingraham: 'The America We Know And Love Doesn't Exist Anymore' - YouTube The Trumpsters eat this stuff up.
Laura Ingraham Has Been Peddling White Nationalism For Years: A Reminder;
Laura Ingraham Is Under Madison Avenue’s Microscope Again – Variety;
Laura is a mainstream republican in the modern day GOP.
Trump’s GOP Chooses Racial Animus Over Family Values - The Atlantic;
Someday, Republicans May Reject Trump's White Nationalism — But Not Yet
++
Donald and Omarosa:
Let me start off with this section by stating that I vehemently disapprove of taping individuals without their knowledge, except in a criminal evidence gathering setting. My other introductory observation is that the Duck and Omarosa deserve one another.
I simply view the following tweets from the Duck as more evidence, when no more is needed, that he is unfit to be President within the meaning of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution:
Donald claimed that Omarosa is "Whacky", "vicious", "crazed", "hated", "not smart", a "dog", a "lowlife" and a "crying lowlife" over a two day period. So, one of my questions is why did he hire such a person at a $180K annual salary?
History is filled with examples of authoritarian leaders who have sought to demonize individuals or groups by calling them animals.
In authoritarian movements, one goal is to distinguish "us" from "them" who are intrinsically bad and subhuman.
Omarosa reveals audio of Trump campaign aides allegedly discussing potential fallout of N-word - CBS News; Omarosa: Tape has Trump campaign aides spinning use of N-word
Donald denied using the "N" word. His aides were reportedly caught on tape discussing how to spin the "rumor" that he used that word. The two aides present were the then-Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson (a tea party activist) and campaign communications director Jason Miller.
Prior to the tape being released, Ms. Pierson categorically denied that any such conversation occurred and accused Omarosa of writing a movie script. Katrina Pierson's explanations of the alleged 'n-word' tape make no sense
A day later a tape was released that revealed Ms. Pierson stating that Donald acknowledged using the "N" word and he was sorry about it.
After being confronted with the tape, Ms. Pierson then claimed in true Trumpette fashion that maybe there was some kind of discussion, but she was just trying to humor Omarosa in her comment quoted at the bottom of the preceding transcript. I had a hard time trying to follow her argument.
Ms. Pierson also agreed with Trump's characterizations of Omarosa quoted previously, and said she would have gone further (interview tape starting at 7:38: Erin Burnett presses Trump adviser on Omarosa recording - YouTube)
Why doesn't Lying Don simply request that the producers of the Apprentice release all of the outtake tapes and agree to press interviews relating to those outtakes including questions about whether or not any have been destroyed and if so at whose request.
When will Donald make those requests?
Maybe he will at the same time he voluntarily releases his tax returns which of course means never. Donald is not someone who could withstand close scrutiny of documentary evidence. He would still lie, since that is what he much prefers to do, and would continue to do so even when his own documents proved that he was lying.
Donald did claim that "MarkBurnettTV" called him to say that no tapes currently exist where he used that word.
Donald has described women as “fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals” and has reveled in demeaning them in many other ways (e.g. Access Hollywood tape, rating them 1 to 10, etc.) Donald apparently does not like dogs, so referring to a woman as a dog is meant to be the equivalent of the "N" word.
Crazy and "low IQ" are words that the Duck likes to use to describe women:
Gail Collins recounted in a recent column that Donald had objected to a column she wrote when he was just a real estate guy. Donald sent a copy of that column to Ms. Collins with his handwritten notes characterizing her as a "dog and a liar" who had "the face of a pig" Trump and the Politics of Arf - The New York Times
Donald has routinely insulted the intelligence of African Americans, with one of the more well known recent examples being this tweet:
It is hardly a stretch to conclude that Donald has used the "N" word and countless other derogatory slang terms since those kind of attacks are so normal for him.
IMO, you do not need a tape of Donald using one or more of those words to reach the only conclusion possible about his racism and repulsive character.
Possibly, it is conceivable that some Trumpsters may eventually recognize the obvious about Donald and may even voice mild disapproval (rather than their current resounding approval) on some rare occasion in the privacy of their own homes, when no one is present to hear it. The Trumpsters who take that brave stand could then say-in true Trumpster fashion-that they stood up to Donald when it counted.
Ex-Trump executive: He's racist - YouTube (former President of Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino)
Trump again says he’s the “least racist” person there is - Vox (just about everything in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld is turned on its head, up is down, false is true, good is bad, true is false, etc.)
+++
Recent Poll:
Nearly 60% of voters don’t like Trump as a person, poll finds - MarketWatch Trump, unlike other recent Presidents, evokes an unusually high "strong" disapproval numbers at 48%.
A majority of republicans agreed with Trump that the free press is the enemy of the people. National (US) Poll - August 14, 2018 - U.S. Voters Dislike Trump Almost 2 for 1
There is a strong authoritarian core in the self-proclaimed individual freedom party. And, while it is just my opinion, those who have no yet been brainwashed need to recognize that fact before it is too late.
One potential problem for republicans in the upcoming election involves this poll question and response:
58% believe that the Trump Administration is not doing enough to help the middle class. While 93% of the Democrats said no, 61% of independents had the same negative response as did 63% of the women.
Pentagon spokeswoman under investigation for misusing staff, retaliating against complaints - CNN (more allegations that a Trump appointee used government employees to run personal errands)
+++
Donald's Enemies List:
Donald has an enemy's list just like Nixon. Nixon's Enemies List - Wikipedia
Unlike Nixon's list, which was only made public by John Dean in his Watergate testimony, Donald has already published some of the names on his list which includes John Brennan, Sally Yates, James Clapper and Michael Hayden. Trump gears up to strip more clearances from officials tied to Russia probe
Donald made it clear that he wants to revoke those security clearances for anyone involved in the Russian investigation: "I call it the rigged witch hunt, (it) is a sham. And these people led it! So I think it's something that had to be done." Trump links yanking ex-CIA chief John Brennan's security clearance to Russia probe - CBS News
60 former CIA officials sign letter against Trump's security clearance decision - CBS News
Trump is the first U.S. President to revoke security clearances based on political motives and objectives which includes his ongoing campaign to obstruct the Russian investigation and to demean the ultimate findings irrespective of the evidence supporting them.
His press secretary identified several people on that list who have been critical of the Duck.
John Brennan, the former CIA Director, is Enemy # 1.
Brennan has not been nice to the Orange King.
Donald and his Trumpsters just love it. Doesn't Donald's tweets, which strive to be as creepy, vile and viciously juvenile as possible, prove how authentic he is?
Normally, there is a process that is used to revoke a security clearance and Donald ignored that process to reach a unilateral decision as President.
Donald's statement revoking Brennans' security clearance was dated 7/26/18 and was released on 8/15/18, as the jury started to deliberate in the criminal case against his former campaign manager.
It is noteworthy that no current intelligence official joined in the President's statement.
++++
Laura Ingraham Is Under Madison Avenue’s Microscope Again – Variety;
The Trumpette Laura Ingraham has been losing her Fox "News" sponsor's as of late and no wonder.
Laura is a mainstream republican in the modern day GOP.
Trump’s GOP Chooses Racial Animus Over Family Values - The Atlantic;
Someday, Republicans May Reject Trump's White Nationalism — But Not Yet
++
Donald and Omarosa:
Let me start off with this section by stating that I vehemently disapprove of taping individuals without their knowledge, except in a criminal evidence gathering setting. My other introductory observation is that the Duck and Omarosa deserve one another.
I simply view the following tweets from the Duck as more evidence, when no more is needed, that he is unfit to be President within the meaning of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution:
Donald claimed that Omarosa is "Whacky", "vicious", "crazed", "hated", "not smart", a "dog", a "lowlife" and a "crying lowlife" over a two day period. So, one of my questions is why did he hire such a person at a $180K annual salary?
History is filled with examples of authoritarian leaders who have sought to demonize individuals or groups by calling them animals.
In authoritarian movements, one goal is to distinguish "us" from "them" who are intrinsically bad and subhuman.
Omarosa reveals audio of Trump campaign aides allegedly discussing potential fallout of N-word - CBS News; Omarosa: Tape has Trump campaign aides spinning use of N-word
Donald denied using the "N" word. His aides were reportedly caught on tape discussing how to spin the "rumor" that he used that word. The two aides present were the then-Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson (a tea party activist) and campaign communications director Jason Miller.
Prior to the tape being released, Ms. Pierson categorically denied that any such conversation occurred and accused Omarosa of writing a movie script. Katrina Pierson's explanations of the alleged 'n-word' tape make no sense
A day later a tape was released that revealed Ms. Pierson stating that Donald acknowledged using the "N" word and he was sorry about it.
After being confronted with the tape, Ms. Pierson then claimed in true Trumpette fashion that maybe there was some kind of discussion, but she was just trying to humor Omarosa in her comment quoted at the bottom of the preceding transcript. I had a hard time trying to follow her argument.
Ms. Pierson also agreed with Trump's characterizations of Omarosa quoted previously, and said she would have gone further (interview tape starting at 7:38: Erin Burnett presses Trump adviser on Omarosa recording - YouTube)
Why doesn't Lying Don simply request that the producers of the Apprentice release all of the outtake tapes and agree to press interviews relating to those outtakes including questions about whether or not any have been destroyed and if so at whose request.
When will Donald make those requests?
Maybe he will at the same time he voluntarily releases his tax returns which of course means never. Donald is not someone who could withstand close scrutiny of documentary evidence. He would still lie, since that is what he much prefers to do, and would continue to do so even when his own documents proved that he was lying.
Donald did claim that "MarkBurnettTV" called him to say that no tapes currently exist where he used that word.
Donald has described women as “fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals” and has reveled in demeaning them in many other ways (e.g. Access Hollywood tape, rating them 1 to 10, etc.) Donald apparently does not like dogs, so referring to a woman as a dog is meant to be the equivalent of the "N" word.
Crazy and "low IQ" are words that the Duck likes to use to describe women:
Gail Collins recounted in a recent column that Donald had objected to a column she wrote when he was just a real estate guy. Donald sent a copy of that column to Ms. Collins with his handwritten notes characterizing her as a "dog and a liar" who had "the face of a pig" Trump and the Politics of Arf - The New York Times
Donald has routinely insulted the intelligence of African Americans, with one of the more well known recent examples being this tweet:
It is hardly a stretch to conclude that Donald has used the "N" word and countless other derogatory slang terms since those kind of attacks are so normal for him.
IMO, you do not need a tape of Donald using one or more of those words to reach the only conclusion possible about his racism and repulsive character.
Possibly, it is conceivable that some Trumpsters may eventually recognize the obvious about Donald and may even voice mild disapproval (rather than their current resounding approval) on some rare occasion in the privacy of their own homes, when no one is present to hear it. The Trumpsters who take that brave stand could then say-in true Trumpster fashion-that they stood up to Donald when it counted.
Ex-Trump executive: He's racist - YouTube (former President of Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino)
Trump again says he’s the “least racist” person there is - Vox (just about everything in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld is turned on its head, up is down, false is true, good is bad, true is false, etc.)
+++
Recent Poll:
Nearly 60% of voters don’t like Trump as a person, poll finds - MarketWatch Trump, unlike other recent Presidents, evokes an unusually high "strong" disapproval numbers at 48%.
A majority of republicans agreed with Trump that the free press is the enemy of the people. National (US) Poll - August 14, 2018 - U.S. Voters Dislike Trump Almost 2 for 1
There is a strong authoritarian core in the self-proclaimed individual freedom party. And, while it is just my opinion, those who have no yet been brainwashed need to recognize that fact before it is too late.
One potential problem for republicans in the upcoming election involves this poll question and response:
58% believe that the Trump Administration is not doing enough to help the middle class. While 93% of the Democrats said no, 61% of independents had the same negative response as did 63% of the women.
Pentagon spokeswoman under investigation for misusing staff, retaliating against complaints - CNN (more allegations that a Trump appointee used government employees to run personal errands)
+++
Donald's Enemies List:
Donald has an enemy's list just like Nixon. Nixon's Enemies List - Wikipedia
Unlike Nixon's list, which was only made public by John Dean in his Watergate testimony, Donald has already published some of the names on his list which includes John Brennan, Sally Yates, James Clapper and Michael Hayden. Trump gears up to strip more clearances from officials tied to Russia probe
Donald made it clear that he wants to revoke those security clearances for anyone involved in the Russian investigation: "I call it the rigged witch hunt, (it) is a sham. And these people led it! So I think it's something that had to be done." Trump links yanking ex-CIA chief John Brennan's security clearance to Russia probe - CBS News
60 former CIA officials sign letter against Trump's security clearance decision - CBS News
Trump is the first U.S. President to revoke security clearances based on political motives and objectives which includes his ongoing campaign to obstruct the Russian investigation and to demean the ultimate findings irrespective of the evidence supporting them.
His press secretary identified several people on that list who have been critical of the Duck.
John Brennan, the former CIA Director, is Enemy # 1.
Brennan has not been nice to the Orange King.
Donald and his Trumpsters just love it. Doesn't Donald's tweets, which strive to be as creepy, vile and viciously juvenile as possible, prove how authentic he is?
Normally, there is a process that is used to revoke a security clearance and Donald ignored that process to reach a unilateral decision as President.
Donald's statement revoking Brennans' security clearance was dated 7/26/18 and was released on 8/15/18, as the jury started to deliberate in the criminal case against his former campaign manager.
It is noteworthy that no current intelligence official joined in the President's statement.
The Duck revoked the clearance allegedly due to Brennan's "erratic behavior" and “increasingly frenzied commentary” which sounds to me like Donald was trying to justify the revocation of his own security clearance and maybe got confused when identifying the right person.
Retired Admiral William McRaven a former Navy SEAL who led US Joint Special Operations Command from 2011 to 2014, defended Brennan as "a man of unparalleled integrity whose honesty and character have never been in question", noting further that few "have done more to protect this country"
Admiral McRaven made this parting shot aimed directly at the Duck: "Through your actions, you have embarrassed us in the eyes of our children, humiliated us on the world stage and, worst of all, divided us as a nation. If you think for a moment that your McCarthy-era tactics will suppress the voices of criticism, you are sadly mistaken." That sums it up succinctly. William H. McRaven: Revoke my security clearance, too, Mr. President - The Washington Post; Architect of bin Laden raid issues stunning rebuke of Trump - CNN; Commander who oversaw bin Laden raid: It'd be 'an honor' for Trump to revoke my clearance
Retired Admiral William McRaven a former Navy SEAL who led US Joint Special Operations Command from 2011 to 2014, defended Brennan as "a man of unparalleled integrity whose honesty and character have never been in question", noting further that few "have done more to protect this country"
Admiral McRaven made this parting shot aimed directly at the Duck: "Through your actions, you have embarrassed us in the eyes of our children, humiliated us on the world stage and, worst of all, divided us as a nation. If you think for a moment that your McCarthy-era tactics will suppress the voices of criticism, you are sadly mistaken." That sums it up succinctly. William H. McRaven: Revoke my security clearance, too, Mr. President - The Washington Post; Architect of bin Laden raid issues stunning rebuke of Trump - CNN; Commander who oversaw bin Laden raid: It'd be 'an honor' for Trump to revoke my clearance
Donald will be revoking more security clearances to throw red meat for the Trumpsters, to undermine the Russia investigation whenever possible and/or to change the current news narrative when the cycle turns negative for the Duck due to his own bad conduct and words.
He will also be using the statements revoking security clearances in his ongoing effort to undermine the public's trust in Mueller's final report so that millions will reject it before it is issued and without any consideration of the factual support. That is what we can expect from an authoritarian demagogue.
He will also be using the statements revoking security clearances in his ongoing effort to undermine the public's trust in Mueller's final report so that millions will reject it before it is issued and without any consideration of the factual support. That is what we can expect from an authoritarian demagogue.
Some critics have argued that Donald is trying to suppress free speech that he does not like.
He would certainly like to do that, and far worse to anyone voicing justified criticism, but revoking security clearances only provides a megaphone for his critics at the current time.
He would certainly like to do that, and far worse to anyone voicing justified criticism, but revoking security clearances only provides a megaphone for his critics at the current time.
1. Small Ball:
A. Sold 50 NMFC at $14.06-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC)
Website: New Mountain Finance Corporation
2017 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 23 and ends at page 46)
SEC Filings
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/18 (list of investments and basic terms starts at page 7)
Closing Price Last Friday (8/17/18): NMFC $13.95 -$0.05 -0.36%
Profit Snapshot: +$61.44
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 NMFC at $12.84 (3/5/18 Post)(bought at a -5.8% discount to the last reported NAV per share which was then $13.63 as of 12/31/17)
Net Asset Value Per Share:
6/30/18: $13.57
3/31/18: $13.60 10-Q at page 3
12/31/17: $13.63
12/31/16 $13.46
9/30/15 $13.73
12/31/14 $13.83
9/30/14 $14.33
12/31/13 $14.38
6/30/13 $14.32
12/31/12 $14.06 Sourced from 10-Qs
IPO Price: $13.75 Prospectus (filed 5/23/11)
At a $14.06 price, the premium to the 6/30/18 net asset value per share is +3.61%.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share
Recent Earnings Report:
Net investment income was reported at $.34 per share.
While higher coupons on its floating rate loans and more leverage will likely improve dividend coverage, more leverage means more risk and floating rate coupons tied to short term interest rates can also go down.
This BDC also has significant exposure to second lien loans, which pay higher interest rates than first lien ones, but those second lien loans made to highly leveraged borrowers can become worthless or close to it in a bankruptcy.
New Mountain Finance Corporation Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2018
A. Sold 50 NMFC at $14.06-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC)
Website: New Mountain Finance Corporation
2017 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 23 and ends at page 46)
SEC Filings
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/18 (list of investments and basic terms starts at page 7)
Closing Price Last Friday (8/17/18): NMFC $13.95 -$0.05 -0.36%
Profit Snapshot: +$61.44
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 NMFC at $12.84 (3/5/18 Post)(bought at a -5.8% discount to the last reported NAV per share which was then $13.63 as of 12/31/17)
Net Asset Value Per Share:
6/30/18: $13.57
3/31/18: $13.60 10-Q at page 3
12/31/17: $13.63
12/31/16 $13.46
9/30/15 $13.73
12/31/14 $13.83
9/30/14 $14.33
12/31/13 $14.38
6/30/13 $14.32
12/31/12 $14.06 Sourced from 10-Qs
IPO Price: $13.75 Prospectus (filed 5/23/11)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share
Recent Earnings Report:
Net investment income was reported at $.34 per share.
While higher coupons on its floating rate loans and more leverage will likely improve dividend coverage, more leverage means more risk and floating rate coupons tied to short term interest rates can also go down.
This BDC also has significant exposure to second lien loans, which pay higher interest rates than first lien ones, but those second lien loans made to highly leveraged borrowers can become worthless or close to it in a bankruptcy.
New Mountain Finance Corporation Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2018
Financial Highlights:
Second lien loans to highly leveraged can attach to nothing but vapor when the first lien loans take a major hit in a bankruptcy. NMFC wrote off a second lien note to zero in this last quarter. I think that is important to keep in mind when looking at a BDC's weightings in first and second lien bonds.
 |
| Note the 34.8% Exposure to Second Lien Loans (which I view as too high) |
% in Floating Rate Loans = 87.83% as of 6/30/18
NMFC Trading Profits to Date: $74.1
Prior Round-Trips: So far I have been able to escape with slender profits in shares.
Item # 8 Sold Highest Cost NMFC Lot at $15.37 (9/14/2014 Post)($2.99 profit on the shares + 7 quarterly dividend payments/sold lot on 9/11/14)-Item # 4 Bought 50 NMFC at $15.03 in the Roth IRA (5/29/13 Post)
SOLD 100 of 150 NMFC at $14.4773 ($3.79 profit on the shares + 7 dividend payments)
Item # 1 Sold Remaining 50 Shares of NMFC at $14.63 ($5.88 profit on the shares)
Item # 5 Bought 100 NMFC at $14.28-Taxable Account (6/22/13 Post)
Item # 3 Added 50 NMFC at $14.2-Roth IRA (4/26/14 Post)
B. Bought 10 COTY at $12.25 and 10 at $11.76-Used Commission Free Trades:
Closing Price Last Friday (8/17/18): COTY $12.22 +$0.74 +6.45% (volume was heavier than normal at 9.74+M shares vs. the 5.78+M average)
This one is not working out so well. On the bright side, I did not buy the entire 100 share allotment when making my first purchase in the current chain.
Closing Price Day of First 10 Share Purchase (8/9):
COTY $12.41 -$0.97 -7.25% (intra-day low at $12.02, a new 52 week low that day which has only become worse thereafter)
While there was no news specific to COTY that day, Revlon Inc. Cl A (REV) and e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF)) reported disappointing earnings. ELF was smacked down almost 34%, while Revlon managed to close up for the day after being down as much as 12.5%. The Revlon problem seemed to be significantly connected to a SAP software problem and a loss of certain licenses in 2018 rather than end demand issues.
Other Closing Prices 8/9:
REV $16.30 +0.30 +1.87% (intra-day low at $14)
ELF $9.85 -$5.06 -33.94% : e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
On 8/16, the price hit a new 52 week low at $10.73 after the Merrill Lynch downgraded Coty to underperform from buy. Coty downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill COTY - The Fly This downgrade occurred after the stock had already fallen from over $20 to $11 and change this year.
However, the shares closed that day up $.05 at $11.48. Volume was over 12.394+M shares compared to the average volume of 5.686+M. That intra-day reversal on heavy volume probably contributed to the strong up day last Friday.
Current COTY Position: 70+ Shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $13.93
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share ($.50 annually)
I believe that it would be prudent to eliminate the dividend and to use the cash to pay down debt which is way too high IMO. (see page 20 10-Q)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/30/18
Dividend Yield at $13.93 = 3.59% (assuming no cut)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Prior Sales in 2018:
Item 2.C. Sold 10 COTY at $21.46 (2/19/18 Post)
Item 1.D. Sold 20 COTY at $20.89 (1/28/18 POST)
Last Discussion: Item # 1.A. (6/4/18 Post)
Tariffs: While I did not research the tariff issue as applied to Coty's cosmetic business, I believe that the EU did include some cosmetic products when retaliating against U.S. tariffs. I do not know the impact on COTY since it has a number of plants operating outside of the U.S. including several in Europe.
Even if some European sales included products made in the U.S., it may have been possible to avoid any applicable tariff, at least for a period of time, by shipping products to Europe before the effective date.
European sales are important to Coty:
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 1 U.S. Bancorp 2.35% SU Bond Maturing on 1/29/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Issuer: U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.434
YTM at TC Then at 3.01%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3874%
B. Bought 1 Treasury 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 8/31/19:
YTM =2.459%
I now own 2 bonds.
C. Bought $3K 4 Week Treasury Bills at Auction (commission free at Schwab):
Interest: $4.45 (what can I say other than that is better than the $.55 that I would earn in Schwab's sweep account which currently pays .22%)
4 Week Treasury Bill Auction Results 8/7/18.pdf
CDs maturing in September 2018 have a lower yield:
U.S. 1 Month Treasury Bill-MarketWatch
YTM =2.459%
I now own 2 bonds.
C. Bought $3K 4 Week Treasury Bills at Auction (commission free at Schwab):
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| Priced to Yield 1.905% |
 |
| Schwab Sweep Account Rates |
4 Week Treasury Bill Auction Results 8/7/18.pdf
CDs maturing in September 2018 have a lower yield:
U.S. 1 Month Treasury Bill-MarketWatch
3. Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92:
The $7 commission charged by Vanguard is the highest that I am willing to pay.
Closing Price Last Friday: DOC $17.43 +$0.39 +2.29%
{There are three primary reasons why I keep a Vanguard brokerage account notwithstanding that highest cost commission rate: (1) there are a number of low cost commission free ETFs offered by that firm; (2) excess funds can be kept in the Vanguard Money Market Prime fund that pays over .5% more than my money market account at Fidelity; and (3) I am able to buy some securities in my Vanguard accounts that Fidelity prohibits their customers from buying.}
Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)
2017 Annual Report
April 2018 Investor Presentation
Profit Snapshot: +$12.97
A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92:
The $7 commission charged by Vanguard is the highest that I am willing to pay.
Closing Price Last Friday: DOC $17.43 +$0.39 +2.29%
{There are three primary reasons why I keep a Vanguard brokerage account notwithstanding that highest cost commission rate: (1) there are a number of low cost commission free ETFs offered by that firm; (2) excess funds can be kept in the Vanguard Money Market Prime fund that pays over .5% more than my money market account at Fidelity; and (3) I am able to buy some securities in my Vanguard accounts that Fidelity prohibits their customers from buying.}
Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)
2017 Annual Report
April 2018 Investor Presentation
Profit Snapshot: +$12.97
I took advantage of a price pop after DOC's second quarter earnings report to sell this high cost lot. Two brokerage firms issued buy ratings in response: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) Receives a Buy from Robert W. Baird (price target $18); Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) Gets a Buy Rating from B.Riley FBR (price target $18)
For the reasons discussed below, I still have problems with DOC's FAD per share numbers.
I have a small ball buying program ongoing in my Fidelity account with the lowest cost buy so far at $14.55. The average total cost per share for 30+ shares is $14.84. I am reinvesting the dividend:
I also currently own 100 shares in my IB account where I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Last Discussions: My last two discussions summarize my concerns about prior quarterly FAD numbers.
Item # 2.A. Bought 15 DOC at $14.5 (4/19/18)
Item 1.C. Added 5 DOC at $14.7 (3/12/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report: Physicians Realty Trust Reports Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results
I focus on the funds available for distribution ("FAD") number which excludes pretend revenues of $6.15M created by the straight line rent accounting convention and deducts $6.213M from the normalized FFO number for recurring capital expenditures (that is maintenance costs). Fictional revenues and cash used for property maintenance are not available to support a cash dividend.
Quarterly Dividend = $.23 per share
FAD Per Share for the Q/E 6/30/18 = $.231845
That is tight, real cash flow support for the current dividend, let alone an increase.
FAD per share did improve from the $.2126 number reported in the 2017 second quarter.
DOC Realized Profits to Date: $250.93
There was only one prior round-trip:
Item # 2: Bought 100 DOC at $13.75 (10/11/14 Post)
That lot was sold at $16.1:
B. Bought 10 LXP at $8.81-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)
Closing Price Last Friday: LXP $9.14 +$0.09 +0.99%
LXP SEC Filings
Website: Welcome to Lexington Realty Trust
Portfolio Map
Last Substantive Discussions: Item 1.D. Bought 10 LXP at $7.95-Used Commission Free Trade (3/12/18 Post); Item # 1 (1/4/18 Post)
Current Position in this Schwab Taxable Account: 147+ Shares
Average Cost Per Share Schwab Account = $9.5
This account has my highest average cost per LXP share. I bought this 10 share lot on the day my commission free trades were set to expire in order to average down some. I was shortly thereafter given another 30 free trades.
I have an ongoing "small ball buying" program in my Fidelity taxable account, where I currently own 104+ shares with an average cost per share of $8.8. The lowest cost lot in the chain was bought at $7.74. Item # 2.C. Bought 10 LXP at $7.74 (3/25/18 Post)
I own 133+ shares in a Fidelity Roth IRA account with an average cost per share of $2.86.
Fidelity assigns a zero tax based for shares bought with dividends.
I also own in a Vanguard Roth IRA account 53+ shares with a total cost per share of $7.79.
At less than $10, I will reinvest the dividend in all accounts.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)
Dividends | lxp.com
Dividend Yield at TC per share of $9.5 This Account: 7.47%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/28/18
LXP Trading Profits to Date = $800.94 (hard to generate, see 5 year chart linked below)
5 Year Chart
Last Earnings Report: Q/E 6/30/18
Lexington Realty Trust Reports Second Quarter 2018 Results
I viewed this report as okay and basically more of the same.
LXP is making a gradual transition from being a diversified REIT to one that primarily owns triple net leased industrial properties.
Investors tend to focus on funds from operation ("FFO") when this REIT, as previously discussed here many times, has a significant non-cash revenue component included in its FFO calculation that originates from the straight line rent accounting convention. I do not regard pretend revenue as cash available for distribution ("CAD" or sometimes referred to as "FAD") or simply free cash flow under any practical definition grounded in reality.
Note the large differences between FFO, Adjusted FFO and FAD.
FFO at $65.37M or $.27 per diluted share
AFFO at $62.37 or $.25 per diluted share (not calculated using NAREIT definition)
FAD at $57.883 or $.235 per diluted share (NAREIT definition of AFFO excludes non-cash revenues and I have to compute the FAD number unlike the FFO and AFFO per share numbers which are provided in the report, Glossary of REIT Terms | Nareit)
It is also important to note that the FAD per share number is well in excess of the quarterly dividend.
LXP Supplemental Information for the Q/E 6/30/18
Some Prior Sell Discussions:
Item # 1 Sold 150 LXP in Vanguard Roth IRA-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 2 Sold 250 LXP on Ex-Dividend Date in Two Taxable Accounts-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Sold 54 LXP at $11.44 Vanguard Roth IRA (1/27/15 Post)-Transitioning Position to Fidelity Roth IRA
Sold 100 LXP in Fidelity Roth IRA at $11.15 (1/6/17 comment)
Item # 1 Sold 101+ LXP at $10.65 (10/28/14 Post)
LXP Senior Unsecured Bonds:
I also currently own LXP senior unsecured bonds: Item # 3.A. Bought 2 LXP 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/23 (6/7/18 Post); Item # 1.D. Bought 1 LXP 4.4% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/24 (3/25/17 Post).
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I focus on the funds available for distribution ("FAD") number which excludes pretend revenues of $6.15M created by the straight line rent accounting convention and deducts $6.213M from the normalized FFO number for recurring capital expenditures (that is maintenance costs). Fictional revenues and cash used for property maintenance are not available to support a cash dividend.
Quarterly Dividend = $.23 per share
FAD Per Share for the Q/E 6/30/18 = $.231845
That is tight, real cash flow support for the current dividend, let alone an increase.
FAD per share did improve from the $.2126 number reported in the 2017 second quarter.
DOC Realized Profits to Date: $250.93
There was only one prior round-trip:
 |
| +$237.96 |
That lot was sold at $16.1:
B. Bought 10 LXP at $8.81-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)
Closing Price Last Friday: LXP $9.14 +$0.09 +0.99%
LXP SEC Filings
Website: Welcome to Lexington Realty Trust
Portfolio Map
Last Substantive Discussions: Item 1.D. Bought 10 LXP at $7.95-Used Commission Free Trade (3/12/18 Post); Item # 1 (1/4/18 Post)
Current Position in this Schwab Taxable Account: 147+ Shares
Average Cost Per Share Schwab Account = $9.5
This account has my highest average cost per LXP share. I bought this 10 share lot on the day my commission free trades were set to expire in order to average down some. I was shortly thereafter given another 30 free trades.
I have an ongoing "small ball buying" program in my Fidelity taxable account, where I currently own 104+ shares with an average cost per share of $8.8. The lowest cost lot in the chain was bought at $7.74. Item # 2.C. Bought 10 LXP at $7.74 (3/25/18 Post)
I own 133+ shares in a Fidelity Roth IRA account with an average cost per share of $2.86.
Fidelity assigns a zero tax based for shares bought with dividends.
I also own in a Vanguard Roth IRA account 53+ shares with a total cost per share of $7.79.
At less than $10, I will reinvest the dividend in all accounts.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)
Dividends | lxp.com
Dividend Yield at TC per share of $9.5 This Account: 7.47%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/28/18
LXP Trading Profits to Date = $800.94 (hard to generate, see 5 year chart linked below)
5 Year Chart
Last Earnings Report: Q/E 6/30/18
Lexington Realty Trust Reports Second Quarter 2018 Results
I viewed this report as okay and basically more of the same.
LXP is making a gradual transition from being a diversified REIT to one that primarily owns triple net leased industrial properties.
Investors tend to focus on funds from operation ("FFO") when this REIT, as previously discussed here many times, has a significant non-cash revenue component included in its FFO calculation that originates from the straight line rent accounting convention. I do not regard pretend revenue as cash available for distribution ("CAD" or sometimes referred to as "FAD") or simply free cash flow under any practical definition grounded in reality.
Note the large differences between FFO, Adjusted FFO and FAD.
FFO at $65.37M or $.27 per diluted share
AFFO at $62.37 or $.25 per diluted share (not calculated using NAREIT definition)
FAD at $57.883 or $.235 per diluted share (NAREIT definition of AFFO excludes non-cash revenues and I have to compute the FAD number unlike the FFO and AFFO per share numbers which are provided in the report, Glossary of REIT Terms | Nareit)
It is also important to note that the FAD per share number is well in excess of the quarterly dividend.
LXP Supplemental Information for the Q/E 6/30/18
Some Prior Sell Discussions:
Item # 1 Sold 150 LXP in Vanguard Roth IRA-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 2 Sold 250 LXP on Ex-Dividend Date in Two Taxable Accounts-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Sold 54 LXP at $11.44 Vanguard Roth IRA (1/27/15 Post)-Transitioning Position to Fidelity Roth IRA
Sold 100 LXP in Fidelity Roth IRA at $11.15 (1/6/17 comment)
Item # 1 Sold 101+ LXP at $10.65 (10/28/14 Post)
LXP Senior Unsecured Bonds:
I also currently own LXP senior unsecured bonds: Item # 3.A. Bought 2 LXP 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/23 (6/7/18 Post); Item # 1.D. Bought 1 LXP 4.4% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/24 (3/25/17 Post).
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I did not see any news that would explain the positive action in bonds today. It had the feel of short covering as too many speculators were leaning the wrong way, though some may attribute the move to Trump's criticism of the FED's rate hikes.
ReplyDeleteU.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 2.817% -0.052%
Last Updated: Aug 20, 2018 4:23 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
$121.79 +$0.81 +0.67%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt
The recent downdraft in intermediate term rates has given me another opportunity to lighten up some in 2025-2026 maturities and to replace them with higher rated bonds maturing in 2020. For example, I sold an AVB SU bond maturing in May 2026 at a YTM of 3.72% (rated at A3) and bought an AXP SU bond (rated A2) maturing on 3/3/20 with a YTM of 2.94% at my purchase price. So I sacrificed about .75% in yield in a swap to shorten my maturity by 6 years. My longer intermediate term (2027-2028) and long term (2029-2045) bond exposure is primarily in high quality Tennessee Municipal Bonds.
Coty Inc. Cl A $ $11.41 -$0.99 -7.98%
ReplyDeleteLast Updated: Aug 21, 2018 at 9:47 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/coty
It would not be a stretch to say that investors are not please with today's earnings report.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180821005175/en/Coty-Reports-Fiscal-2018-Fourth-Quarter-Full
On the positive side, the company did declare its regular dividend.
Since I am a long time dumpster diving contrarian investor, there are more than a few examples of being too early with my purchases. When I am this early as judged by subsequent events, it is equivalent to being wrong with 20/20 hindsight.
I was at least right to assign Coty shares to a "small ball buying program" rather than to buy my entire 100 share maximum position in one purchase. And that maximum position is also an indication of my risk/reward assessment.
I skimmed through the earning report. My reaction is that the company is a work in progress and will continue to be saddled with extraordinary expense items as it integrates the P & G beauty acquisition, its global integration program, and its cost savings programs.
I will continue my small ball buying program in 10 share lots until I reach 100 shares. I will reinvest the dividend to buy shares.
The NYT is reporting that Cohen will be pleading guilty later today to campaign finance charges relating to the hush money payments as well as bank and tax fraud. He will not be required to cooperate with Mueller as part of the plea deal. If he cooperates and provides substantial information, Mueller could recommend a reduction in the sentence.
ReplyDeleteIt remains to be seen whether Cohen will talk with Mueller, or have anything new to offer that is not already covered by the documents. A pardon probably will not help Trump to silence Cohen since it would potentially remove any right to remain silent based on the Fifth Amendment unless narrowly drawn to include only those matters covered by the plea agreement and exclude everything related to the Russian investigation. If that could be done, it would raise the possibility of another obstruction claim since it would create an incentive to plead the 5th on those excluded matters.
What is happening appears to be similar to how prosecutors frequently approach a Mafia crime investigation and prosecution. Lower level members of the RICO criminal conspiracy are charged and plead guilty as the prosecutors slowly work their way up the ladder.
I suspect that the Stock Jocks expected that Manafort would be found guilty on some felony counts and that Cohen would enter a guilty plea to some felony charges. Manafort's approach of fighting to the bitter end will only exhaust the money that his wife may need while he is doing time in the slammer. His lawyers will continue to defend him until his last dime, which goes without saying, and then he can hire a public defender.
ReplyDeleteThe reaction so far in after hours trading is to take away today's gains in the DJIA. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF is currently up 4 cents in after hours trading after losing $.14 during regular hours. I would call that no reaction.
The only issue that may be surprising is that part of Cohen's plea where he admitted violating campaign finance laws at Trump's direction.
While this raises the possibility of Donald conspiring with Cohen to violate the campaign finance laws, that will be insufficient to convince a single House republican to vote for impeachment IMO even if there are tapes that clearly show that Donald is guilty.
All of them have already dismissed evidence of Trump's obstruction; and Mueller is not going to file criminal charges against the Duck while he is in office pursuant to the existing DOJ policy on that issue.
So I do not see the Stock Jocks having an anxiety attack over the Cohen and Manafort crimes.
It does have the aura of white collar gangsterism surrounding the Duck. I certainly would not be surprised that Donald has committed multiple felonies in the past; with the proof being out there if only someone is allowed to dig far enough.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/08/observations-and-sample-of-recent_22.html