Basket Net Realized Gain as of 3/11/24: $37,912.56
Start Date 9/2013
The actual reported profit will be higher than shown above, since the snapshots below would not yet include any of the ROC adjustments occurring after the shares were sold and the snapshot taken.
For investors unfamiliar with publicly traded REITs, this NAREIT publication provides a good introduction. REIT-FAQ.pdf
As noted in that publication, publicly-traded REITs are a convenient way for individuals to invest in income-producing real estate.
The REIT structure requires the company to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders each year. Double taxation is avoided for that pass-through income. The REIT structure as a pass-through entity permits a larger dividend distribution than a regular "C" corporation could make after paying taxes on income at the corporate level before making a distribution from income.
However, money is flowing out the door with any pass-through entity like a REIT or BDC. Capital is not being retained to grow the business. Instead, capital is being continually raised through debt and stock sales.
I have been investing in REIT stocks for a long time, which does not make me an expert on this sector by any means.
Instead, as with other sectors where I routinely invest, I have simply become comfortable investing in this sector and have formed opinions over the years about the criteria for determining when and what to buy, and when to sell. I will never have that kind of comfort level when investing in technology that requires technical expertise that I do not have and have no desire to acquire.
My latest foray into REIT common and preferred stocks started in September 2013, soon after those securities were smashed in price. I viewed the price correction to be due primarily to excessive valuations reached after a multi-year up move that was aggravated significantly by a spike in interest rates that started soon after May 1, 2013, when the ten year treasury closed at a 1.66% yield. By year-end, the ten year yield had risen to 3.02% (12/31/13). Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
I noted this article published in January 2013: REITs: A word of caution | Vanguard Blog
The spike in interest rates in 2013 was not due to a rise in inflation or inflation expectations. Both CPI and inflation expectations fell during that rate spike period.
Instead, the rate spike was due to the first salvo in the interest rate normalization process.
The normal rate setting process undertaken by the market, which is governed primarily by inflation expectations and credit quality, was supplanted by the FED's manipulation of rates through its asset buying sprees and the maintenance of ZIRP since late 2008. The FED's balance sheet has grown to over $4.171+ trillion as of 10/1/14, the last data available before the publication of this post. System Open Market Account Holdings Federal Reserve Bank of New York Other central bank policies are contributing to the abnormally low rates on treasuries.
Just as an example, one of the foreign central banks heavily in the manipulation game has been the Swiss National Bank's ongoing creation of Swiss Francs and the purchase of Euros for the purpose of suppressing the rise of the CHF against the EUR. SNB Balance Sheet Data August 2014.pdf The newly created money is then invested in sovereign bonds (estimated CHF $471+B) that has been a contributing factor in abnormally low sovereign bond yields prevailing in Europe that makes the treasury yields look good comparatively. Consequently, this causes more demand for those securities at a time when the FED is hogging the supply (more than 50% ownership of most outstanding securities maturing in ten years or more).
A normal historical spread for a nominal 10 year treasury to the anticipated annual inflation rate is about 2%. That is not much of a real rate of return, unless the investor is extremely confident that deflation or very low inflation is more likely than a rate closer to the historical norms. Consumer Price Index, 1913- | The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis As shown by historical data, inflation and periodic episodes of problematic inflation are the norm rather than deflation and/or persistently low inflation numbers (less than 1%). The exception was the period during the Great Depression. Chart 1913 to Date Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
The ten year treasury's real rate of return before the rate spike occurred last year was in negative territory.
Even now, the current yield of the ten year TIP is fluctuating mostly between .25% to .5%. 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity
{see also: 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity; 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity; 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity-slightly over a 1% current yield}
To understand how REITs may react to a rise in rates, an investor can not simply compare a prior period, where rates were rising due to inflation and/or the FED's response to inflationary pressures, with a rate rise caused by interest rate normalization which is simply the return to the average real rate of returns over inflation expectations. A period when rates are rising due solely to interest rate normalization can have a greater impact on REITs compared to a period where rates are rising due to inflationary pressures. The reason has to do with the ability of the REIT to offset increases in borrowing costs with rent increases.
If CPI inflation remains subdued at less than 2%, and rates rise to normal levels (about 4% to 4.25% for the ten year given current inflation expectations), the REITs will have their borrowing costs potentially rise at a faster rate than their ability to recoup those costs through rent increases tied to the CPI. Most commercial mortgages have relatively short terms and REITs are constantly having to refinance loans and debt obligations.
One potential problem is that REIT prices are currently above the average historical P/FFO. The Lazard firm publishes a monthly report, accessible over the internet, that has charts showing historical P/FFO as well as other valuation metrics. When I click my bookmark to that site, I am taken to the most recent report rather than the one originally bookmarked. USRealEstateIndicatorsReport .pdf
As of August 2014, that report shows REITs were selling a 5% premium to their underlying net asset value and at a P/FFO of approximately 17.8 vs. the historical average of 16. That historical average has been rising due to the recent market prices. When I first started to look at this report, the long term average was around 15.5.
Overall, I would anticipate a high positive correlation between the ten year treasury and REIT prices under current and reasonably anticipated economic conditions. Their yields have fallen with a rebound in prices during 2014 to the publication date of this post.
However, starting in late August 2014 until late September, there was a slight increase in the ten year treasury yield that had a significant negative impact on REIT price. Market price declines were across the board starting in late August. The Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) had a total return of -5.78% for the 30 day period ending on 10/3/14.
There are many pundits who have published articles that reach a contrary conclusion, asserting that it is the myth that REIT stocks will be hurt by rising rates. Seeking Alpha-Larry Swedroe July 2014; WSJ Article-Published January 2014 Summarizing a NAREIT Report; Lazard Report March 2014-Misperceptions about Rising Rates and REIT Prices.pdf; The Myth of REIT Interest-Rate Risk-By Brad Thomas published at TheStreet.Pdf
The kind of analysis performed by those investors and the trade organization for REITs do not take the historical record in context by examining all of the relevant criteria impacting REIT operating performance and share price: (1) the valuations when interest rates start to rise; (2) the underlying causes of the interest rate rise (rate normalization, federal reserve tightening cycle, inflation increases); (3) whether short term and intermediate term rates are both rising or whether short term rates are rising (2004-2006) while intermediate and long term rates remain relatively stable (refinancing costs remain about the same); (4) the size of the rate increases across the maturity spectrum in relation the then current REIT yields and investor inflation expectations during such a period; (5) the timing of refinancing in relation to the size and speed of the rate rise; (6) the relative actual and reasonably anticipated potential GDP growth; (7) whether or not there has been above or below normal construction of new buildings prior to the rise in rates; (8) whether the overall stock market is in a bull or bear cycle; and I could on and on.
In other words, when taking historical parallels, a sophisticated investor can not take one variable in isolation from all other material variables that impact price and performance. Each time period can have material differences that will impact the outcome other than merely comparing rising interest rate periods with one another which is nothing more or less than a crutch for a more difficult and accurate analysis.
In this post, I will be adding from time to time snapshots of my realized gains and losses from the REIT basket, starting only with the purchases made in September 2013 and thereafter, until I abandon this sector basket altogether with a liquidation.
This basket strategy does not include MREITs.
The profits/losses from Canadian REITs will be impacted for tax reporting purposes by the currency conversion rates in existence at the time of purchase and sale. I am buying those securities with CADs and receiving the sale proceeds in CADs. The reportable profit will depend, however, on the conversion values at the time of purchase and disposition. In cases so far, my reportable taxable profit is significantly less than my actual CAD profit.
The Canadian REITs do have currency risks for a U.S. investor. All pay monthly distributions and generally have higher yields based on CAD payments than the U.S. REITs. Given the decline in the CAD since hitting a high back in 2011, the value of the distribution is less since the CAD dividend buys fewer USDs, in effect resulting in a dividend cut after the conversion. For me, this results only in a lower reportable taxable distribution since I am being paid in CADs.
A U.S. investor who buys these securities on the U.S. pink sheet exchange or the Grey Market (a dark market), using USDs, will receive the distribution payment after the conversion from CADs into USDs and the withholding tax.
Since dividends/distributions are an important component of total return in this basket, I will compute the amounts annually. The totals for the Canadian securities will consist of the reportable taxable amounts in USDs which will be lower than what I received in CADs whenever the CAD is worth less than 1 USD.
Profit snapshots will be divided into common and preferred share classes.
Some USD tax profits realized from Canadian REIT sales are estimated.
Equity REIT Common Shares:
Trades made after 5/3/15 will not have blog links and will be discussed generally in a periodic update published at my SA Instablog site noted above:
Fidelity converts CADs into USDs immediately after the sell transaction. For Canadian and Australian REITs bought in their local currencies in my Interactive Brokers Account, the profit or loss is expressed in CADs or AUDs and then an approximate profit/loss in USDs is calculated for purposes of my running total here only.
The equity REIT preferred stock snapshots appear after the common share snapshots. Over the last several years, most of the trades have utilized commission-free trades.
Gains at over $500:
U.S. REITs only:
*HR acquired HTA in a reverse merger where HTA was the surviving entity. The name was then change to Healthcare Realty with the HR symbol.
Profits greater than $200 are highlighted in green.
All losses are highlighted in red.
RI = Roth IRA Account
REIT Common Stocks:
2024
|
2024 OLP 5 Shares +$2.4 |
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2024 STAG 10 Shares +$249.22 |
|
2024 PEAK 7 Shares +$26.66 RI |
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2024 NLOP 2 Shares +$12.92 |
|
2024 DOC 61+ Shares Net of +$39.05 |
|
2024 O 5 Shares +$4.48 |
|
2024 HIW 5 Shares +$12.75 RI |
|
2024 NNN 1 Share +$3.79 RI |
2023:
|
2023 SLG 36+ Shares +$35.68 |
|
2023 DOC 18 Shares +$8.36 RI |
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2023 GOOD 16 Shares +$65.88 |
|
2023 DOC 3+ Shares +$3.4 RI |
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2023 PEAK 15 Shares +5.6 |
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2023 PLYM 5 Shares +$47.83 RI |
|
2023 SBRA 25 Shares +$26.59 |
|
2023 WPC 5 Shares +$59.5 |
|
2023 STAG 50 Shares +$1,074.13 |
|
2021 PLYM 20 Shares +$212.59 |
|
2023 SLG 20+ Shares +$68.26 |
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2023 STAG 1 Share +$14.25 RI |
|
2023 WPC 1 Share +$2.65 RI |
|
2023 GMRE 15 Shares +$31.42 |
|
2023 EPRT 13+ Shares +$32.9 |
|
2023 VNO 34+ Shares +$19.43 |
|
2023 GOOD 26+ Shares Net of $128.61 |
RTL Elimination: 3 Taxable Accounts = $220.55
|
2023 PCH 5 Shares +$7.5 |
|
2023 GNL 19+ Shares +$40.41 RI |
|
2023 RTL 26+ Shares +30.05 RI |
|
2023 OHI 17+ Shares +$43.55 |
|
2023 HR 5 Shares +$3.2 |
|
2023 GNL 20+ Shares +$72.33 |
|
2023 GNL 28 Shares +$148.11 |
|
2023 GMRE 20 Shares +$33.87 |
|
2023 IRM 3 Shares +$98.68 |
|
2023 LXP 20+ Shares +$33.97 |
|
2023 LXP 7 Shares +$9.43 RI |
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2023 DIR.UN:CA +C$653 |
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2023 GMRE 15 Shares +$3.39 |
|
2023 REET 24+ shares +$71.38 |
2022:
|
2022 GTY 30 Shares + $191.46 |
|
2022 GTY 5 Shares +$43.82 |
|
2022 MAC 10 Shares +$42.01 |
|
2022 OHI 4+ Shares +$13.02 RI |
|
2022 OHI 6 Shares Net of +3.46 RI |
|
2022 OHI 3 Shares +$9.55 |
|
2022 GTY 1 Share +$5.79 |
|
2022 IRM 1 Share +$29.61 |
|
2022 CLPR 4+ Shares +$8.38 RI |
|
2022 LTC 3+ Shares +$17.44 RI |
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2022 CTT 15+ shares +$10.33 |
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2022 OHI 6 Shares +$2.72 |
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2022 IRM 19+ Shares +$631.54 |
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2022 HTA 20 Shares +$198.37 |
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2022 HIW 5 Sharess +$6.79 RI |
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2022 AX.UN:CA 200 units +C$165.5 |
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2022 HIW 7 Shares +$15.31 |
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2022 BRG 20+ Shares +$454.86 |
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2022 BRG 2+ Share +$34.54 RI |
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2022 HR 4 Shares +$8.58 RI |
|
2022 LTC 2 Shares + $21.86 RI |
2021:
|
2021 DEA 22+ shares +$18.32 |
|
2021 PDM 34+ shares +$210.28 |
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2021 PDM 10+ Shares +$63.22 |
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2021 PDM 10 Shares +$65.73 |
|
2021 BDN 15+ Shares +$58.12 |
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2021 BDN 21+ shares +$98.17 |
|
2021 OPI 10+ Shares +$54.13 |
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2021 CLPR 20 Shares +$35.84 |
|
2021 BRG 3 Shares +$14.19 RI |
|
2021 CXP 57+ Shares +$304.86 |
|
2021 PDM 5 Shares +$25.6 |
|
2021 RIOCF 20 Shares +$139.02 |
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2021 IRM 25+ shares +$327.08 |
|
2021 HTA 10 shares +$96.87 |
|
2021 HTA 2 Shares +$19.22 RI |
|
2021 CXP 10 Shares +$85.4 |
|
2021 CXP 10 Shares +$30.75 |
|
2021 CXP 3 Shares +$25.02 RI |
|
2021 CXP 4+ Shares +$30.48 RI |
|
2021 CUBE 4 Shares +$108.54 |
|
2021 IGR 162+ Shares +$173.59 |
|
2021 NWHUF 50 Shares +$193.76 |
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2021 MAC 10 Shares +$38.47 |
|
2021 PLYM 10 Shares +$108.09 |
|
2021 PLYM 10 Shares +$108.89 |
|
2021 NWHUF (Canadian REIT/USD Priced) 350 Units +$965.98 |
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2021 VNQ 1 Share +$18.71 RI |
|
2021 IRM 1 Share +$24.34 |
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2021 GNL 50+ shares +$96.81 |
|
2021 GOOD 5+ Shares +$20.77 |
|
2021 PLYM .818 Share +$3.57 |
|
2021 GNL 9 Shares +$8.56 RI |
|
2021 MAC 5 Shares +$10.91 |
|
2021 VNO 5+ shares +$69.4 |
|
2021 PDM 1 Share +$2.27 |
|
2021 IRM 6 Shares +$72.42 |
|
2021 BRT 4 Shares +$34.69 |
|
2021 IRM 5 Shares +$48.12 |
|
2021 STAG 4 Shares +$32.49 |
|
2021 BXP 2 Shares +$19.52 |
|
2020 CIO 20 Shares +$92.42 |
|
2021 BDN 50 Shares +$7.72 |
|
2021 APLE 90+ shares +$29.49 |
|
2021 PEAK 15 Shares +$38.01 |
|
2021 SKT 50 SHARES +$185.84 |
|
2021 SLG 6+ Shares +$128.97 |
|
2021 SLG 2+ Shares +$49.44 |
|
2021 DEA 4 Shares + $5.47 |
|
2021 PEAK 3 Shares +$6.8 |
|
2021 VNO 2 Shares +$14.88 |
2020
|
2020 SKT 124+ Shares -$207.35 |
|
2020 PDM 10 Shares +$1.46 |
|
2020 HT 86+ shares -$294.59 |
|
2020 CXP 20 Shares +$17.84
|
|
2020 ARESF 280 Shares +$77.08
|
|
2020 AIV 11 Shares +$18.19
|
|
2020 JCAP 93+ Shares +$127.02
|
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2020 JCAP 124+ Shares +$148.18
|
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2020 MNR 10 Shares +$37.44 |
|
2020 MNR 10 Shares +$24.63 |
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2020 HTA 62 Shares +$351.78 |
|
2020 HT 10 Shares +$10.27 |
|
2020 67+ VTR Shares +$126.99 |
|
2020 BPYU 10 Shares +$9.39 |
|
2020 CLDT 72+ Shares -540.21 |
|
2020 SLG 8 Shares +$38.48 |
|
2020 RLJ 55+ Shares -$194.03 |
+++++++++++++
Equity REIT Preferred Shares:
BRGPRA snapshots from the later part of 2020 were the result of two separate issuer partial redemptions occurring in multiple accounts. The full call occurred in 2021.
PLYMPRA: Called at $25 Par Value on 9/6/23 (owned in 3 accounts with purchases at a $25 per share Total Cost)
|
2024 CIOPRA 35 Shares +$75.32 |
|
2024 HPPPRC 25 Shares +$36.06 |
|
2024 HPPPRC 40+ Shares +$119.81 |
|
2024 EPRPRC 21 Shares Net of +$26.54 |
|
2024 SLGPRI 15 Shares +$62.49 |
|
2024 HPPPRC 10 Shares +$2 |
|
2024 HTIA 20 Shares +$45.87 |
|
2023 GNLPRD 25 Shares +$114.31 |
|
2023 GOODN 10 Shares +$5.5 RI |
|
2023 HPPPRC 10 Shares +$6.92 RI |
|
2023 CIOPRA 10 Shares +$42.5 |
|
2023 HTIA 10 Shares +$2.92 RI |
|
2023 CIOPRA 3 Shares +$2.47 RI |
|
2022 MNRPRC 80 Shares +$301.52 (issuer redemption at $25 par value) |
|
2021 GOODM 20 shares +$115 |
|
2021 BRGPRA 15 Shares +$130.64 |
|
2021 BRPRA 20 Shares +$80.34 |
|
2021 BRGPRA 4 Shares +$41.64 |
|
2021 BRGPRA 1 Share +$9.86 |
|
2021 HTPRD 50 Shares +$21.65 |
|
2021 AHTPRI 50 Shares +$22.62 |
|
2020 BRGPRA 17 Shares +$50.51 |
|
2020 BRGPRA 3 Shares +$34.5 |
|
2020 BRGPRA 1 Share +$9.09 |
|
2020 BRGPRA 75 Shares +$150.25 |
|
2020 VNOPRM 11 Shares +$72.21 |
|
2020 BRGPRA 2 Shares +$23
|
|
2020 BRGPRA 13 Shares +$38.29
|
|
2020 BPYUP 10 Shares +$46.29 |
|
2020 SLGPRI 20 Shares +$122
|
|
2020 CIOPRA 30 Shares +$78.16
|
|
2020 HTPRD 50 Shares +$85.89
|
|
2020 JCAPPRB 5 Shares +$37.05
|
|
2020 JCAPPRB 10 Shares +$77.59
|
|
2020 JCAPPRB 30 Shares +$155.07
|
|
2020 GNLPRB 105 Shares +$63.54 |
|
2020 EPRPRC 25 Shares +$91.49 |
|
2020 VNOPRM 5 Shares +$29.94 |
|
2020 AHTPRI 50 Shares -$587.54 |
|
2020 JCAPPRB 10 Shares +$6.99 |
|
2020 AHTPRI 50 Shares +$3.22 |
|
2020 ROTH IRA HTPRD 50 shares +$271.47 |
|
2019 HTPRD 50 Shares +$161.46 |
|
2019 MNRPRC 100 SHARES +$76.24 |
|
2019 BHRPRD 50 Shares +$251.44 |
|
2019 HTPRD 50 Shares +$64.02 |
|
2019 EPRPRG 50 Shares +$149.68 |
|
2019 GMREPRA 70 Shares +$208.36 |
|
2019 DLRPRJ 60 Shares +$171.78 |
|
2019 CIOPRA 50 Shares +$155.22 |
|
2019 AHTPRI 50 Shares +$15.7 |
|
2019 PSAPRE 50 Shares +$178.48 |
|
2019 VNOPRM 50 Shares +$56.68 |
|
2019 CIOPRA 50 Shares +$20.86 |
|
2019 Roth IRA 50 HTPRD +$38.49 |
|
2019 MNRPRC 50 Shares +$23.75 |
|
2019 GMREPRA 30 Shares +$9.79 |
|
2018 REXRPRB 30 Shares +$49.82 |
EPRPRC 150 shares +$402.73