Friday, December 19, 2008

Buy of Kraft Food and Partial Sell of LNC Postion

Purely as a dividend play, with some hope of modest appreciation over the course of the next two years, I added 100 shares of Kraft Foods, KFT, a new position for me, filled at 26.52.  The dividend yield is close to 4.5% at that price with a payout ratio near 50%.  Both S & P and Morningstar give Kraft five stars.  I view this one as relatively safe for a stock, in that I would be surprised if the price broke 20 during the current economic downturn and I hoping to sell it at around 35 in 1 to 2 years, aiming for a 15% total return including the dividend.  S & P has a 37 target on it.  I think that is optimistic and I would be pleased to see 35 after a year.  It is the kind of selection that I am likely to make during uncertain economic times.  On the downside, I would anticipate consumers are trading down from brand name products in the current economic climate. The current estimate for 2009 earnings is $2.02KFT: Analyst Estimates for KRAFT FOODS INC - Yahoo! Finance
If that holds, my purchase would be at a reasonable 13 times next year's earnings.  Price to sales is less than 1. KFT: Key Statistics for KRAFT FOODS INC - Yahoo! Finance

For no particular reason, I sold my highest cost shares of Lincoln National (LNC)  at 19 this afternoon, for a very small profit, and I am going to keep the small number of shares purchased a few weeks ago at $6.45 primarily for the dividend, which is over 12% at that cost.      Time to Fire my Head Trader: He Bought LNC  I guess that I just feel better owning 100 of Kraft. 

I heard Harvey Pitt say last night that the SEC can not catch every crook in response to a question about Madoff.  The SEC received several warnings about Madoff and refused to perform an adequate investigation for reasons that are not yet clear.S.E.C. Says It Missed Signals on Madoff Fraud Case - SEC Ignored Madoff Fraud Warnings, Faces Grilling - Transition TrackerUnlikely Player Pulled Into Madoff Swirl - 
After listening to Pitt, I wanted to ask him to name the ones that the SEC had caught and why they would not come down like a ton of bricks after receiving legitimate warnings about Madoff's operation.

  I am not a financial advisor but an individual investor trying to navigate my way through a difficult market. In these posts, I am acting as an unpaid financial journalist and an occasional political commentator.   I am also aggregating financial news stories that I view as important and providing any reader of these posts, assuming there are more than a couple, with links to those articles, sort of a filtered, somewhat intelligent, free search engine.  Any discussion made by me of particular securities  is not a recommendation to buy or to sell.  Trade at your own risk.  Consult with your financial advisor prior to making any purchase or sale. I will try to identify my sales too but it may take a few minutes after I implement them to create a post explaining my reasons.  The sale may before or after the post.  Before buying or selling any stock, even one recommended by a trusted financial advisor,  please research it and make up your own mind which is what I always try to do.  Research would include reading reports, reviewing financial records, earnings estimates, sec filings and prior earnings releases and news.  In this post, and all others by me, I am merely describing my reasons for purchasing  or selling securities, and the potential pitfalls that I identified prior to purchase or the reasons for a sale.  The securities mentioned in this and all posts written by me may not be suitable for others based on their unique financial position and risk profile.  Always read the prospectus before buying a Trust Certificate, bond, preferred stock or other bond or bond like investments.  Information contained in my posts has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed.  These posts by me do not constitute investment advice, nor shall they be construed as a guarantee of future results, or as an offer of any transaction in securities.   

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