Friday, April 24, 2009

Sold 50 MSFT & Bought CPB at 25.35/ UCBH & WL earnings

LB is still in the risk management mode for a bear market, not convinced yet that the current rally is the start of a long term secular bull market.Long Term Stock Risks and Situational Risk/Managing Lost Opportunity Risk in a Long Term Secular Bull and Bear Markets/ Novartis or Sanofi Bungee Jumping Aegon and ING Preferred Stocks/ BlackJack and Stock Investing: Lessons Learned & Applied Alcoa/Kroger/Characterizing a Market as Part of a Long Term Secular Bull or Bear: Impact on Stock and other Asset Allocations/LB was thinking today about hedging some of the risk that RB brought into the portfolio last month's buying binge by adding a double short ETF which caused RB to have a fit. The argument has been going on all day today.

Being in a risk reduction mode trading strategy for a bear market still, I sold 50 shares of the higher cost Microsoft shares at $20.35 and will keep the lower cost shares purchased at $17.79. In the event Microsoft slides below $17.5 again, I will consider buying back those shares. This is what I call managing the risk of lost opportunity during a secular bear market. If this turns out to be the start of a bull, then all that I have lost is the opportunity to make more money than I did on those 50 shares sold today.

I bought more Campbell Soup shares today at $25.35:

The other shares were bought at a slightly higher price. Buys of CPB LQD SYY XKK/Regressive Taxation-Cap & Trade/ There is an ongoing shift by large investors out of stocks perceived to be safer, like consumer staples and utilities, and into more economically sensitive names, so I moved slightly in the opposite direction with CPB. This is part of my effort to customize a world consumer product ETF with a few pharmaceutical names thrown into the mix such as Novartis and Sanofi. BOUGHT NVS AND SOLD GJOBOUGHT SNY/ SOLD 1/2 JZV: Risk Management/CEO Compensation/ING Finalizes Deal With Dutch Government/American General Finance/Freedom from Regulations and Irresponsibility/ Sold KXI and Bought GIS
CPB sunk further after my buy and hit a new 52 week low.

Both of these transactions were done with limit order before leaving HQ this morning.

I received some mixed earnings results from two bank lottery ticket purchases.Wilmington Trust (WL) is up over 30% so far today, based on a better than expected report. Yahoo! Finance I am now up about 50%. Sold 1/2 KO at 44.2: Risk Reduction/BOUGHT 30 WL=Lottery Ticket/Bernanke on AIG/Disney Downgrade by GS For these small lottery ticket purchases, it does not matter much what I do with them ( though as a group they are starting to impact my portfolio a little with several of them increasing 100%+ in the last month). For Wilmington, I may just hold to see if I can run it to more than a two bagger, which would mean a sale at over 30. The other one, an extremely timid 50 share purchase of UCBH at a buck and change, is not faring as well and for good reason. Yahoo! Finance UCBH took a loan loss provision of 178.5 million and it is a relatively small bank. On a very dim bright side, management did say in the earnings release that the residential real estate market is showing some signs of stabilization and there was strong demand for new mortgage loans related to home purchases. The Tier 1 risk based capital ratio was 12.18% as of 3/31. The tangible equity ratio was 3.48%. Patience is the operative word with UCBH. Over the weekend, I will decide whether or not to add more shares.

I am not a financial advisor but an individual investor trying to navigate my way through a difficult market. I have never worked for a financial institution and never will. In these posts, I am acting as an unpaid financial journalist and an occasional political commentator. I am also aggregating financial news stories that I view as important and providing any reader of these posts, assuming there are more than a couple, with links to those articles, sort of a filtered, somewhat intelligent, free search engine. Any discussion made by me of particular securities is not a recommendation to buy or to sell. Trade at your own risk. Consult with your financial advisor prior to making any purchase or sale. I will try to identify my sales too but it may take a few minutes after I implement them to create a post explaining my reasons. The sale may before or after the post. Before buying or selling any stock, even one recommended by a trusted financial advisor, please research it and make up your own mind which is what I always try to do. Research would include reading reports, reviewing financial records, earnings estimates, sec filings and prior earnings releases and news. In this post, and all others by me, I am merely describing my reasons for purchasing or selling securities, and the potential pitfalls that I identified prior to purchase or the reasons for a sale. The securities mentioned in this and all posts written by me may not be suitable for others based on their unique financial position and risk profile. By way of example, it is unlikely that I will ever need the funds contained in my retirement accounts. Always read the prospectus before buying a Trust Certificate, bond, preferred stock or other bond or bond like investments. Information contained in my posts has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. It is always important to follow the investment process. the investment process/links to further information on canadian energy or royalty trustsInvestment Process Part II: Bonds and Bond Like Investments NOT A RESEARCH SERVICE/Add of PWE Last Week These posts by me do not constitute investment advice, nor shall they be construed as a guarantee of future results, or as an offer of any transaction in securities. All content in these posts is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only, and it is a form of entertainment for me.