Economy
The Bond Ghouls viewed the BLS inflation report for September as confirming their long term thesis that inflation will never be a problem until the end of days.
After all, the headline number was up only .5% rather than the anticipated consensus number of .6%. This spurt caused the non-seasonally adjusted annual number to rise to 2.2%.
And, core inflation rose just .1% compared to the .2% consensus.
The ten year treasury yield declined to 2.28% last Friday from 2.33% on Thursday. 2017 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
As I previously mentioned, the headline number was juiced by a rise in gasoline prices caused by the two hurricanes. I read in several articles that this was only temporary, which I have yet to notice in reality when filling up my vehicles.
There are generally some inflation numbers in the detailed category list that causes me to scratch my head. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category
The most questionable item in this last report, which I view as absurd, is a claim that health insurance costs rose only .1% over the past year through September 2017 using non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Holy cow, that is a laugh at loud number.
Look under the category "Services Less Energy Services" and then under the category "Medical Care Services". Sure, with those kind of numbers, there is no wonder that core inflation was so low.
Yellen Speech 10/15/17: The Fed - The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
Yellen Says `Best Guess' Is Soft Inflation Won't Persist - Bloomberg
Gradual rate hikes should help sustain economic growth, Yellen says - MarketWatch
Oil jumps to near 3-week high as Middle East tensions escalate - MarketWatch
Crude Oil - Electronic Nov 2017 Price
Iraqi, Kurdish forces clash near oil-rich Kirkuk in wake of independence vote - MarketWatch
Empire State index jumps to three-year high in October - MarketWatch
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
+++++++++
Market Commentary:
It would take an ‘immaculate conception’ to create bear market in stocks right now: analyst - MarketWatch
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply With as Few Words as Possible (5/17/09 Post)
Vix Asset Allocation Model - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Closing Volatility Prices 10/13/17:
VIX - CBOE Volatility Index for the S & P 500: 9.61
VXD - DJIA Volatility Index: 10.19
VXO - CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index: 7.57
RVX - CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index for the Russell 2000: 14.63
According to Birinyi Associates, the GAAP TTM P/E for the S & P 500 was 24.33 as of 10/13/17, while the forward 12 month estimated non-GAAP "operating earnings" P/E was 19.39. P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center
++++++
Trump and Obamacare:
Trump is doing whatever he can, irrespective of legalities to undermine the Obamacare exchanges and to raise premium costs for those who purchase insurance on those exchanges.
The latest salvo was his decision that the federal government would no longer reimburse insurance companies who are required by Obamacare to reduce out-of-pocket expenses for eligible households.
Trump refers to those payments as insurance company bailouts, which is just another lie. The payments are designed to help lower and middle income families to reduce the out-of-pocket maximum medical payments. The ACA’s cost-sharing subsidies
The end result of this latest attempt to undermine Obamacare is that the federal government will end up spending about $200B more over the next ten years and insurance premiums will go up 20% next year.
CBO Report: The Effects of Terminating Payments for Cost-Sharing Reductions
Many insurance companies have already priced the withdrawal of funds into their 2018 price increases.
The Effects of Ending the Affordable Care Act’s Cost-Sharing Reduction Payments | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Administration’s Ending Of Cost-Sharing Reduction Payments Likely To Roil Individual Markets
4 ways consumers will feel the end of Obamacare subsidies - CBS News
Health Insurance Premiums To Rise After Subsidies Stop-NPR;
Trump's New Obamacare Killer to Cost Uncle Sam $194 Billion - Bloomberg
CBO Analysis Finds That Ending Reimbursements To Insurers Will Raise The Deficit-NPR;
How would the government's costs go up almost $200B over ten years and premiums soar as a result of Trump's decision to end what is called the cost sharing reduction ("CSR") payments to insurance companies. Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) - HealthCare.gov Glossary | HealthCare.gov ("if you qualify for cost-sharing reductions, you also have a lower out-of-pocket maximum — the total amount you’d have to pay for covered medical services per year. When you reach your out-of-pocket maximum, your insurance plan covers 100% of all covered services.")
The reason is that the tax credit amounts will go up with the premium increases, at least until the subsidies exceed .504% of GDP and then the increases are tied to inflation rather than premium increases under section 1401 of the PPACA-Affordable Care Act -- Reconciliation - Tax Credits at section B (ii) III "Failsafe"- page 2 (about half way there now, but it is hard to say when the line will be crossed given the inherent inability to forecast both GDP growth and premium increases combined)
The government provides assistance to lower and middle income families in two ways under Obamacare.
The first is through tax credits which are available to people whose income is no more than 4 times the federal poverty level or about $97,200 in income for a family of four. Questions and Answers on the Premium Tax Credit | Internal Revenue Service The increase in premiums caused by Trump's decision will cause the tax credit payments to go up which increases the cost to the federal government.
The tax credits are refundable.
The other government program, the one that Trump has decided to end, reduces the maximum out-of-pocket expenses for those who purchase the silver plan. Impact of Cost Sharing Reductions on Deductibles and Out-Of-Pocket Limits | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Those payments from the government are used to help lower and middle income families afford their deductibles and co-pays. About 7 million individuals receive that benefit, many of whom no doubt voted for Trump. In fact, an estimated 4 million of those beneficiaries live in states carried by Trump. Pro-Trump states Negatively Impacted There is something satisfying about that outcome for Trump supporters.
Scroll to the Interactive Map Titled "Number of People Enrolled in ACA Marketplaces (2017) and Medicaid Expansion (2016) by Senator's Party: Interactive Maps: Estimates of Enrollment in ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid Expansion | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Trump's action will also injure middle income individuals and families who make too much to receive tax credits or a reduction in out-of-pocket expenses through the CSR payments. Those individuals who purchase the silver plan will suffer premium increases caused solely by the withdrawal of the CSR payments.
Trump also timed the withdrawal to cause maximum damage to the state insurance exchanges. Timing of White House actions unrolling parts of ACA ‘couldn’t be worse,’ states say-The Washington Post
Republican politicians cheered the President's decision to raise premiums costs by about 20% for low and middle income families next year and to cause the federal government to spend more money and to go deeper into debt than it will save due to Trump's decision to withdraw the CSR payments.
It is critical for the GOP's firm hold on about 40% of the electorate that they accept whatever Trump and company say as true which is a good bet for the republican politicians to make. Lying works for them, so why stop.
If the insurance companies can not be reimbursed for lowering the out-of-pocket costs for eligible insureds, many will no longer offer policies and more localities will lose the remaining insurance carrier willing to provide coverage.
Those with pre-existing conditions will consequently lose coverage.
Ending Obamacare subsidies would increase premiums by 20 percent in 2018, CBO says - The Washington Post ("The cancellation of subsidies could lead some insurers to withdraw from the program, potentially leaving 5 percent of Americans living in areas with no insurance options for 2018")
The republicans in Congress refused to appropriate money for the CSR payments required by law. The insurance companies are required by law to reduce out-of-pocket maximum expenses (deductibles and co-pays) for eligible insureds.
After refusing to fund those payments, the House of Representatives, then controlled by the GOP, filed a lawsuit against the Obama administration to enjoin it from making the payments after the GOP refused to specifically appropriate the funds.
The congressional republicans found a republican federal district court judge, Rosemary M. Collyer who graduated from the Denver law school, willing to adopt their legal argument as presented to her. She enjoined the Obama Administration from continuing those payments, but stayed the decision pending a final appellate court decision. 38 Page Decision Dated May 12, 2016
{No one would confuse the University of Denver law school as one of the better ones (ranked a #76, willing to admit over 50% of its applicants and only 37% find jobs after graduation according to the U.S. News and World Report}
Then Trump was elected and there was no longer a real party in interest in that litigation. Trump was taking the same position on behalf of the U.S. government, the defendant in the case, as the congressional republicans who were the plaintiffs, so it was like suing yourself.
The appellate court delayed making a decision at Trump's request which then allowed Trump to immediately cut off those funds last week, relying on that republican district court judge's opinion that has not been subjected yet to appellate review due to the delays requested by Trump and the House republicans. Joint motion for continued abeyance filed by Trump and the Congressional Republicans.pdf The Appellate Court should never granted the stay since the signatories of that motion were on the same side.
The republicans in Congress could resolve the issue simply by appropriating the money of course, which they have refused to do for years now as part of their campaign to gut Obamacare and to raise insurance premiums for the people that they feign an interest in helping.
They are not going to relent unless the Democrats agree to their demands on Medicaid and whatever may be their latest repeal and replace plan for Obamacare. That will not happen, so their fall back is to blame the Democrats for harm that the republicans created by refusing to appropriate funds for the premium support payments. That legerdemain will work just fine for most republican voters including those who are seriously harmed by Trump's actions.
There is not enough time in the day to point out all of Donald's lies. For informed voters, a perpetually shrinking minority to be sure, it is easy to identify Donald's lies. He has on several occasions reached 4 separate lies in just one tweet. I am waiting for five in one tweet which I do anticipate happening.
I will address two recent tweets that are related to this section about Obamacare.
The first lie in this tweet is the claim that insurance companies are being subsidized when in fact it is lower and middle income families who receive better insurance coverage by lowering their maximum out-of-pocket costs before coverage becomes 100%. The second lie is that insurance company are the "pets" of the Democrats. Overall, republicans receive more political donations from insurance companies as one would expect. Insurance-OpenSecrets
Blue Cross donated $450+K to republicans and $229+K to democrats over a one year period. When limited to HMO and Health service donations, the contributions are close to equally divided, but the sums are not large. Health Services/HMOs-OpenSecrets
The other tweet involves Trump EO that contemplates allowing certain organizations to offer skinny plans that exclude essential benefits like maternity care, emergency room care, pre-existing conditions, laboratory services, lifetime caps, mental health and drug addition care and so on. That is what Trump is referencing in this lie:
The beneficiaries are the employers who want to offer their employees junk health insurance coverage rather than comprehensive health plans required by Obamacare. The lie is that "millions of people benefit". Sure, the premium costs would be lower for junk plans since the plans do not cover much. The premium costs for those who need or want a comprehensive health insurance policy will go up a lot since the skinny plans will siphon off the healthiest individuals (who will regret their decision when they actually need good coverage). And those intended victims of Trump's action do number in the millions.
In the signing ceremony of this EO, Trump referred to these skinny plans as "great" healthcare, just another lie. Remarks by President Trump at Signing of Executive Order Promoting Healthcare Choice and Competition | whitehouse.gov ("This will be great healthcare", next to last sentence)
Health Care Changes Could Leave Millions of Cancer Patients and Survivors Unable to Access Meaningful Coverage | American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network
Donald Trump’s Terrible Executive Order on Health Care | The New Yorker;
Trump eases ObamaCare rules with executive order | TheHill
How Trump’s executive order affects health care plans and prices | PBS NewsHour;
Trump begins Obamacare dismantling with executive order - CNN
Eventually, all of this push and pull on healthcare insurance which creates chaos and increases costs will result in Medicare/Medicaid for all.
Obamacare will not end up being the answer and will be relegated to the dustbin of history, nor will the GOP's approach which is in essence a return to the pre-Obamacare status quo.
The transition to single payer with universal coverage for citizens (except possibly for those eligible for Medicaid which could be continued as a separate program with the states) will not occur soon. I would give it a 25% to 50% chance within 10 to 15 years, with the odds gradually increasing thereafter. It would probably require that the GOP be relegated to a minority party that is so weakened that it has no power to influence events. The funding would probably be similar to Medicare and would include increases in the SS payroll and self-employment tax rates, employer taxes, and government funding. 2017 Payroll Taxes Will Hit Higher Incomes
There will need to be a far greater focus on controlling medical cost increases as well.
++++++++
Trump and Iran:
Trump elected to decertify the Iran nuclear deal based on his view that Iran was not complying with the agreement.
His generals, his Secretary of State and the U.N. Monitor told him that Iran was complying, but Trump knows better.
Trump: “In the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, then the agreement will be terminated.”
The other signatories to the agreement stated that they had no intention of negotiating any change to the agreement, and urged the U.S. to honor its obligations. The only countries supporting the U.S. would be Saudi Arabia and Israel who want the U.S. to spend lives and treasure to address their Iran problem militarily IMO.
Congress may in response to Trump's decertification pass legislation calling for an automatic termination when certain conditions occur, as determined by Trump, but that is unlikely to receive 60 votes in the Senate.
Tillerson urging Trump to certify Iran's compliance with nuclear deal: report | TheHill
Mattis Contradicts Trump on Iran Deal Ahead of Crucial Deadline - The New York Times
Trump: Iran is violating the nuclear deal. Top US general: no, it isn’t. - Vox
Iran Is Sticking to the Nuclear Deal, IAEA Says - Bloomberg
Fact-checking President Trump’s speech on the Iran deal - The Washington Post
Iran's hardliners say Trump has done them 'great favors' - CNN
Trump on Iran's 'Multiple Violations' - FactCheck.org
Why Trump Hates the Iran Nuclear Deal - Video - NYTimes.com (one reason is that it was negotiated by Obama which is sufficient in Trump's mind to unravel it)
Trump's is likely to continue alienating our nation's traditional allies. Personally, I believe he is the most tangible threat to the continued use of the USD as the world's reserve currency. Trump is a gift to China that will keep on giving.
Dollar drop? China will 'compel' Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan: USA Today;
Oil Futures in China Would Be Transformational - Bloomberg;
Venezuela publishes oil prices in Chinese currency to shun U.S. dollar;
China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold- Nikkei Asian Review;
Chinese central-bank chief talks of reforms aimed at lifting yuan’s status - MarketWatch
The Bond Ghouls viewed the BLS inflation report for September as confirming their long term thesis that inflation will never be a problem until the end of days.
After all, the headline number was up only .5% rather than the anticipated consensus number of .6%. This spurt caused the non-seasonally adjusted annual number to rise to 2.2%.
And, core inflation rose just .1% compared to the .2% consensus.
The ten year treasury yield declined to 2.28% last Friday from 2.33% on Thursday. 2017 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
As I previously mentioned, the headline number was juiced by a rise in gasoline prices caused by the two hurricanes. I read in several articles that this was only temporary, which I have yet to notice in reality when filling up my vehicles.
There are generally some inflation numbers in the detailed category list that causes me to scratch my head. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category
The most questionable item in this last report, which I view as absurd, is a claim that health insurance costs rose only .1% over the past year through September 2017 using non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Holy cow, that is a laugh at loud number.
Look under the category "Services Less Energy Services" and then under the category "Medical Care Services". Sure, with those kind of numbers, there is no wonder that core inflation was so low.
Yellen Speech 10/15/17: The Fed - The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
Yellen Says `Best Guess' Is Soft Inflation Won't Persist - Bloomberg
Gradual rate hikes should help sustain economic growth, Yellen says - MarketWatch
Oil jumps to near 3-week high as Middle East tensions escalate - MarketWatch
Crude Oil - Electronic Nov 2017 Price
Iraqi, Kurdish forces clash near oil-rich Kirkuk in wake of independence vote - MarketWatch
Empire State index jumps to three-year high in October - MarketWatch
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
+++++++++
Market Commentary:
It would take an ‘immaculate conception’ to create bear market in stocks right now: analyst - MarketWatch
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply With as Few Words as Possible (5/17/09 Post)
Vix Asset Allocation Model - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Closing Volatility Prices 10/13/17:
VIX - CBOE Volatility Index for the S & P 500: 9.61
VXD - DJIA Volatility Index: 10.19
VXO - CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index: 7.57
RVX - CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index for the Russell 2000: 14.63
According to Birinyi Associates, the GAAP TTM P/E for the S & P 500 was 24.33 as of 10/13/17, while the forward 12 month estimated non-GAAP "operating earnings" P/E was 19.39. P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center
++++++
Trump and Obamacare:
Trump is doing whatever he can, irrespective of legalities to undermine the Obamacare exchanges and to raise premium costs for those who purchase insurance on those exchanges.
The latest salvo was his decision that the federal government would no longer reimburse insurance companies who are required by Obamacare to reduce out-of-pocket expenses for eligible households.
Trump refers to those payments as insurance company bailouts, which is just another lie. The payments are designed to help lower and middle income families to reduce the out-of-pocket maximum medical payments. The ACA’s cost-sharing subsidies
The end result of this latest attempt to undermine Obamacare is that the federal government will end up spending about $200B more over the next ten years and insurance premiums will go up 20% next year.
CBO Report: The Effects of Terminating Payments for Cost-Sharing Reductions
Many insurance companies have already priced the withdrawal of funds into their 2018 price increases.
The Effects of Ending the Affordable Care Act’s Cost-Sharing Reduction Payments | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Administration’s Ending Of Cost-Sharing Reduction Payments Likely To Roil Individual Markets
4 ways consumers will feel the end of Obamacare subsidies - CBS News
Health Insurance Premiums To Rise After Subsidies Stop-NPR;
Trump's New Obamacare Killer to Cost Uncle Sam $194 Billion - Bloomberg
CBO Analysis Finds That Ending Reimbursements To Insurers Will Raise The Deficit-NPR;
How would the government's costs go up almost $200B over ten years and premiums soar as a result of Trump's decision to end what is called the cost sharing reduction ("CSR") payments to insurance companies. Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) - HealthCare.gov Glossary | HealthCare.gov ("if you qualify for cost-sharing reductions, you also have a lower out-of-pocket maximum — the total amount you’d have to pay for covered medical services per year. When you reach your out-of-pocket maximum, your insurance plan covers 100% of all covered services.")
The reason is that the tax credit amounts will go up with the premium increases, at least until the subsidies exceed .504% of GDP and then the increases are tied to inflation rather than premium increases under section 1401 of the PPACA-Affordable Care Act -- Reconciliation - Tax Credits at section B (ii) III "Failsafe"- page 2 (about half way there now, but it is hard to say when the line will be crossed given the inherent inability to forecast both GDP growth and premium increases combined)
The government provides assistance to lower and middle income families in two ways under Obamacare.
The first is through tax credits which are available to people whose income is no more than 4 times the federal poverty level or about $97,200 in income for a family of four. Questions and Answers on the Premium Tax Credit | Internal Revenue Service The increase in premiums caused by Trump's decision will cause the tax credit payments to go up which increases the cost to the federal government.
The tax credits are refundable.
The other government program, the one that Trump has decided to end, reduces the maximum out-of-pocket expenses for those who purchase the silver plan. Impact of Cost Sharing Reductions on Deductibles and Out-Of-Pocket Limits | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Those payments from the government are used to help lower and middle income families afford their deductibles and co-pays. About 7 million individuals receive that benefit, many of whom no doubt voted for Trump. In fact, an estimated 4 million of those beneficiaries live in states carried by Trump. Pro-Trump states Negatively Impacted There is something satisfying about that outcome for Trump supporters.
Scroll to the Interactive Map Titled "Number of People Enrolled in ACA Marketplaces (2017) and Medicaid Expansion (2016) by Senator's Party: Interactive Maps: Estimates of Enrollment in ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid Expansion | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Trump's action will also injure middle income individuals and families who make too much to receive tax credits or a reduction in out-of-pocket expenses through the CSR payments. Those individuals who purchase the silver plan will suffer premium increases caused solely by the withdrawal of the CSR payments.
Trump also timed the withdrawal to cause maximum damage to the state insurance exchanges. Timing of White House actions unrolling parts of ACA ‘couldn’t be worse,’ states say-The Washington Post
Republican politicians cheered the President's decision to raise premiums costs by about 20% for low and middle income families next year and to cause the federal government to spend more money and to go deeper into debt than it will save due to Trump's decision to withdraw the CSR payments.
It is critical for the GOP's firm hold on about 40% of the electorate that they accept whatever Trump and company say as true which is a good bet for the republican politicians to make. Lying works for them, so why stop.
If the insurance companies can not be reimbursed for lowering the out-of-pocket costs for eligible insureds, many will no longer offer policies and more localities will lose the remaining insurance carrier willing to provide coverage.
Those with pre-existing conditions will consequently lose coverage.
Ending Obamacare subsidies would increase premiums by 20 percent in 2018, CBO says - The Washington Post ("The cancellation of subsidies could lead some insurers to withdraw from the program, potentially leaving 5 percent of Americans living in areas with no insurance options for 2018")
The republicans in Congress refused to appropriate money for the CSR payments required by law. The insurance companies are required by law to reduce out-of-pocket maximum expenses (deductibles and co-pays) for eligible insureds.
After refusing to fund those payments, the House of Representatives, then controlled by the GOP, filed a lawsuit against the Obama administration to enjoin it from making the payments after the GOP refused to specifically appropriate the funds.
The congressional republicans found a republican federal district court judge, Rosemary M. Collyer who graduated from the Denver law school, willing to adopt their legal argument as presented to her. She enjoined the Obama Administration from continuing those payments, but stayed the decision pending a final appellate court decision. 38 Page Decision Dated May 12, 2016
{No one would confuse the University of Denver law school as one of the better ones (ranked a #76, willing to admit over 50% of its applicants and only 37% find jobs after graduation according to the U.S. News and World Report}
Then Trump was elected and there was no longer a real party in interest in that litigation. Trump was taking the same position on behalf of the U.S. government, the defendant in the case, as the congressional republicans who were the plaintiffs, so it was like suing yourself.
The appellate court delayed making a decision at Trump's request which then allowed Trump to immediately cut off those funds last week, relying on that republican district court judge's opinion that has not been subjected yet to appellate review due to the delays requested by Trump and the House republicans. Joint motion for continued abeyance filed by Trump and the Congressional Republicans.pdf The Appellate Court should never granted the stay since the signatories of that motion were on the same side.
The republicans in Congress could resolve the issue simply by appropriating the money of course, which they have refused to do for years now as part of their campaign to gut Obamacare and to raise insurance premiums for the people that they feign an interest in helping.
They are not going to relent unless the Democrats agree to their demands on Medicaid and whatever may be their latest repeal and replace plan for Obamacare. That will not happen, so their fall back is to blame the Democrats for harm that the republicans created by refusing to appropriate funds for the premium support payments. That legerdemain will work just fine for most republican voters including those who are seriously harmed by Trump's actions.
There is not enough time in the day to point out all of Donald's lies. For informed voters, a perpetually shrinking minority to be sure, it is easy to identify Donald's lies. He has on several occasions reached 4 separate lies in just one tweet. I am waiting for five in one tweet which I do anticipate happening.
I will address two recent tweets that are related to this section about Obamacare.
The first lie in this tweet is the claim that insurance companies are being subsidized when in fact it is lower and middle income families who receive better insurance coverage by lowering their maximum out-of-pocket costs before coverage becomes 100%. The second lie is that insurance company are the "pets" of the Democrats. Overall, republicans receive more political donations from insurance companies as one would expect. Insurance-OpenSecrets
Blue Cross donated $450+K to republicans and $229+K to democrats over a one year period. When limited to HMO and Health service donations, the contributions are close to equally divided, but the sums are not large. Health Services/HMOs-OpenSecrets
The other tweet involves Trump EO that contemplates allowing certain organizations to offer skinny plans that exclude essential benefits like maternity care, emergency room care, pre-existing conditions, laboratory services, lifetime caps, mental health and drug addition care and so on. That is what Trump is referencing in this lie:
The beneficiaries are the employers who want to offer their employees junk health insurance coverage rather than comprehensive health plans required by Obamacare. The lie is that "millions of people benefit". Sure, the premium costs would be lower for junk plans since the plans do not cover much. The premium costs for those who need or want a comprehensive health insurance policy will go up a lot since the skinny plans will siphon off the healthiest individuals (who will regret their decision when they actually need good coverage). And those intended victims of Trump's action do number in the millions.
In the signing ceremony of this EO, Trump referred to these skinny plans as "great" healthcare, just another lie. Remarks by President Trump at Signing of Executive Order Promoting Healthcare Choice and Competition | whitehouse.gov ("This will be great healthcare", next to last sentence)
Health Care Changes Could Leave Millions of Cancer Patients and Survivors Unable to Access Meaningful Coverage | American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network
Donald Trump’s Terrible Executive Order on Health Care | The New Yorker;
Trump eases ObamaCare rules with executive order | TheHill
How Trump’s executive order affects health care plans and prices | PBS NewsHour;
Trump begins Obamacare dismantling with executive order - CNN
Eventually, all of this push and pull on healthcare insurance which creates chaos and increases costs will result in Medicare/Medicaid for all.
Obamacare will not end up being the answer and will be relegated to the dustbin of history, nor will the GOP's approach which is in essence a return to the pre-Obamacare status quo.
The transition to single payer with universal coverage for citizens (except possibly for those eligible for Medicaid which could be continued as a separate program with the states) will not occur soon. I would give it a 25% to 50% chance within 10 to 15 years, with the odds gradually increasing thereafter. It would probably require that the GOP be relegated to a minority party that is so weakened that it has no power to influence events. The funding would probably be similar to Medicare and would include increases in the SS payroll and self-employment tax rates, employer taxes, and government funding. 2017 Payroll Taxes Will Hit Higher Incomes
There will need to be a far greater focus on controlling medical cost increases as well.
++++++++
Trump and Iran:
Trump elected to decertify the Iran nuclear deal based on his view that Iran was not complying with the agreement.
His generals, his Secretary of State and the U.N. Monitor told him that Iran was complying, but Trump knows better.
Trump: “In the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, then the agreement will be terminated.”
The other signatories to the agreement stated that they had no intention of negotiating any change to the agreement, and urged the U.S. to honor its obligations. The only countries supporting the U.S. would be Saudi Arabia and Israel who want the U.S. to spend lives and treasure to address their Iran problem militarily IMO.
Congress may in response to Trump's decertification pass legislation calling for an automatic termination when certain conditions occur, as determined by Trump, but that is unlikely to receive 60 votes in the Senate.
Tillerson urging Trump to certify Iran's compliance with nuclear deal: report | TheHill
Mattis Contradicts Trump on Iran Deal Ahead of Crucial Deadline - The New York Times
Trump: Iran is violating the nuclear deal. Top US general: no, it isn’t. - Vox
Iran Is Sticking to the Nuclear Deal, IAEA Says - Bloomberg
Fact-checking President Trump’s speech on the Iran deal - The Washington Post
Iran's hardliners say Trump has done them 'great favors' - CNN
Trump on Iran's 'Multiple Violations' - FactCheck.org
Why Trump Hates the Iran Nuclear Deal - Video - NYTimes.com (one reason is that it was negotiated by Obama which is sufficient in Trump's mind to unravel it)
Trump's is likely to continue alienating our nation's traditional allies. Personally, I believe he is the most tangible threat to the continued use of the USD as the world's reserve currency. Trump is a gift to China that will keep on giving.
Dollar drop? China will 'compel' Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan: USA Today;
Oil Futures in China Would Be Transformational - Bloomberg;
Venezuela publishes oil prices in Chinese currency to shun U.S. dollar;
China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold- Nikkei Asian Review;
Chinese central-bank chief talks of reforms aimed at lifting yuan’s status - MarketWatch
++++++++++
My Healthcare Trading Profits Starting in 2016 (includes Small Cap Biotech Lottery Tickets):
My Healthcare Trading Profits Starting in 2016 (includes Small Cap Biotech Lottery Tickets):
The profit/loss snapshots are in prior posts.
2016:
AGN +$ 95.97
AMGN +$310.68
BBC +$ 58.28
CARA +$233.11
CYTK +$ 94.00
EARS -$ 91.57
EPZM +$ 33.72
HZNP +$ 65.64
IBB +$ 44.17
IMDZ +$ 41.49
MACK +$ 132.47
MRK +$183.44
NVAX -$277.01
NVTA +$ 51.99
PFE: +$257.01
PGNX +$114.5
PRTX +$ 92.47
RIGL +$109.24
SGYP +$ 45.99
SNY +$177.46
SUPN +$ 69.38
2016 NET TRADING PROFIT = +$1,842.43
2017:
ARRY +$355.48
AZN +$ 6.85
CARA +$260.35
CYTX +$157.03
FOLD +$425.98
GILD +$103.38
HRTX +$ 53.99
IMGN +$ 77.48
KPTI +$261.14
MACK +$ 12.99
MDRX +$ 49.98
MRK +$741.19
NKTR +$355.4
NVTA +$ 46.59
OMER +$721.41
PFE +$469.95
PGNX +$216.11
RHHBY+$307.8
SNY +$130.36
VGHCX +$426.53
2017 Net Profit = $5,179.99
++++++
Manafort Had $60 Million Relationship With a Russian Oligarch - NBC News
Women Shouldn't Have the Right to Vote, Says ‘Alt-Right’ Leader Richard Spencer
Why Donald Trump's Tax Plan May Blow Up in His Face—and Steve Mnuchin's
Tapper to Tillerson: Did you call Trump a moron? (Tillerson refuses to answer the question)
Trump Wants to Censor the Media - The Atlantic
Andrew Sullivan: Trump’s Mindless Nihilism (IMO, mindless nihilism is a good two word description)
Trump governs by disruption-and overloads all the circuits-The Washington Post
National (US) Poll - October 12, 2017 - U.S. Voter Support For Gun Con | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (For republicans, 77% of republicans approve of Donald's attacks on the media; 78% believe Donald tells the truth; 83% believe that the NRA is good for America; 83% believe that Trump actually cares about the plight of Puerto Rico; and 46% support a preemptive strike on NK)
Misery in Puerto Rico: No power, no job, 'enormous' lines - Oct. 16, 2017
Nation Tracker: Americans feel tax reform plans would favor wealthy - CBS News
Sooner or later, Trump will cause a major negative event that the Stock Jocks will be unable to ignore. The negative impact on the real economy will be recognized, and the market will adjust quickly. My guess is that the first such action will be a U.S. trade war with Canada and Mexico. Trump's demands on those two countries, IMO, are intended to result in no agreement to amend the NAFTA trade agreement and will thereby provide Trump with an excuse to terminate the agreement which is what he really wants to do anyway.
Women Shouldn't Have the Right to Vote, Says ‘Alt-Right’ Leader Richard Spencer
Why Donald Trump's Tax Plan May Blow Up in His Face—and Steve Mnuchin's
Tapper to Tillerson: Did you call Trump a moron? (Tillerson refuses to answer the question)
Trump Wants to Censor the Media - The Atlantic
Andrew Sullivan: Trump’s Mindless Nihilism (IMO, mindless nihilism is a good two word description)
Trump governs by disruption-and overloads all the circuits-The Washington Post
National (US) Poll - October 12, 2017 - U.S. Voter Support For Gun Con | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (For republicans, 77% of republicans approve of Donald's attacks on the media; 78% believe Donald tells the truth; 83% believe that the NRA is good for America; 83% believe that Trump actually cares about the plight of Puerto Rico; and 46% support a preemptive strike on NK)
Misery in Puerto Rico: No power, no job, 'enormous' lines - Oct. 16, 2017
Nation Tracker: Americans feel tax reform plans would favor wealthy - CBS News
Sooner or later, Trump will cause a major negative event that the Stock Jocks will be unable to ignore. The negative impact on the real economy will be recognized, and the market will adjust quickly. My guess is that the first such action will be a U.S. trade war with Canada and Mexico. Trump's demands on those two countries, IMO, are intended to result in no agreement to amend the NAFTA trade agreement and will thereby provide Trump with an excuse to terminate the agreement which is what he really wants to do anyway.
+++++++++++++++
1. Sold 100 LXP-Gateway Post: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 50 LXP at $10.39-IB Trading Account $1 Commission:
A. Sold 50 LXP at $10.39-IB Trading Account $1 Commission:
Profit Snapshot: +38.52
I did receive two quarterly dividend of $.175 per share. Lexington Realty Trust (LXP) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com
As noted previously, it has been difficult to realize trading profits in this out-0f-favor REIT, as shown by a five year chart: Lexington Realty Trust Interactive Chart Consequently, I have a hair trigger on any purchase and a declining consider to sell range.
This leaves me with 179+ LXP shares.
I own 50 share bought at $7.6 in a Vanguard Roth IRA account where I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Vanguard IRA History for LXP:
In another Roth IRA account, I have pared the position down to 129+ shares. I bought 50 shares at $7.73 on 1/8/16. Item # 2 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/11/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
The remaining shares were purchased with dividends, mostly when I own a lot more shares. I have sold some shares in that account profitably that were purchased with dividends.
B. Sold 50 LXP at $10.46-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: +$50.54
This 50 share lot was recently purchased in my Schwab taxable account at $9.45. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (LXP)-6/11/17
LXP Trading Profits To Date: $800.94
This leaves me with 179+ LXP shares.
I own 50 share bought at $7.6 in a Vanguard Roth IRA account where I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Vanguard IRA History for LXP:
In another Roth IRA account, I have pared the position down to 129+ shares. I bought 50 shares at $7.73 on 1/8/16. Item # 2 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/11/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
 |
| History List of Purchases Does Not Yet Reflect 2.11 Shares Acquired Today but the total in yellow does |
B. Sold 50 LXP at $10.46-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: +$50.54
This 50 share lot was recently purchased in my Schwab taxable account at $9.45. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (LXP)-6/11/17
LXP Trading Profits To Date: $800.94
2. Sold 50 MDRX at $14.32-IB Trading Account ($1 Commission):
Profit Snapshot: $49.58
Item # 2 Bought 50 MDRX at 13.28-Update For The Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 5/9/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Quote: Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. (MDRX)
For almost my entire ownership period, I was in the red on this lot which is sufficient for me to abandon the trade. MDRX Stock Chart The P/E is also high and there are no dividend payments. MDRX Analyst Estimates
My only prior trade was more successful where I realized a $152.48 gain on a 50 share lot that was held for 2+ months. SOLD 50 MDRX at $11.82 (4/20/2009 Post)
For almost my entire ownership period, I was in the red on this lot which is sufficient for me to abandon the trade. MDRX Stock Chart The P/E is also high and there are no dividend payments. MDRX Analyst Estimates
My only prior trade was more successful where I realized a $152.48 gain on a 50 share lot that was held for 2+ months. SOLD 50 MDRX at $11.82 (4/20/2009 Post)
3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
I am continuing to dump low coupon SU bonds maturing in 2026 for whatever profit exists, no matter how trivial.
A. Sold 2 Intel 2.6% SU Bond Maturing on 5/19/26:
I am continuing to dump low coupon SU bonds maturing in 2026 for whatever profit exists, no matter how trivial.
A. Sold 2 Intel 2.6% SU Bond Maturing on 5/19/26:
Sold at 97.824
YTM Then at 2.887%
Current Yield at 2.66%
YTM Then at 2.887%
Current Yield at 2.66%
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.396
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ITEM 1.E.
YTM Then at 2.929%
Current Yield at 2.67%
My consider to repurchase price would be lower than 90.
B. Sold 2 JPM 2.95% SU Bonds Maturin gon 10/1/26:
Profit Snapshot: +$12.22
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM Analyst Estimates
Sold at 97.9
YTM Then at 3.221%
Current Yield at 3.01%
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.189
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.A. YTM Then at 3.303%
Current Yield at 3.04%
My consider to repurchase price is less than 92.
C. Sold 1 Citigroup 3.2% SU Bond Maturing on 10/21/26:
Profit Snapshot: +$9.07
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Citigroup Inc.
Sold at 98.585
YTM Then at 3.383%
Current Yield at 3.246%
Bought at a total cost of 97.578
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B.
YTM Then at 3.506%
Current Yield at 3.28%
My consider to repurchase price is less than 93.
D. Sold 1 XCEL 3.3% SU Bond Maturing on 6/1/25:
Profit Snapshot: +$13
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Xcel Energy Inc.
XEL Analyst Estimates
Sold at 100.755
YTM Then at 3.181%
Current Yield at 3.275%
Bought at a total cost of 99.255
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ITEM # 1.C.
YTM Then at 3.404%
Current Yield at 3.325%
My consider to repurchase price would be less than 96.
$6K Outflow from Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy
4. Sold 50 of 100 WBSPRE at $25.32-Used Commission Free Trade:
B. Sold 2 JPM 2.95% SU Bonds Maturin gon 10/1/26:
Profit Snapshot: +$12.22
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM Analyst Estimates
Sold at 97.9
YTM Then at 3.221%
Current Yield at 3.01%
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.189
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.A. YTM Then at 3.303%
Current Yield at 3.04%
My consider to repurchase price is less than 92.
C. Sold 1 Citigroup 3.2% SU Bond Maturing on 10/21/26:
Profit Snapshot: +$9.07
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Citigroup Inc.
Sold at 98.585
YTM Then at 3.383%
Current Yield at 3.246%
Bought at a total cost of 97.578
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B.
YTM Then at 3.506%
Current Yield at 3.28%
My consider to repurchase price is less than 93.
D. Sold 1 XCEL 3.3% SU Bond Maturing on 6/1/25:
Profit Snapshot: +$13
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Xcel Energy Inc.
XEL Analyst Estimates
Sold at 100.755
YTM Then at 3.181%
Current Yield at 3.275%
Bought at a total cost of 99.255
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ITEM # 1.C.
YTM Then at 3.404%
Current Yield at 3.325%
My consider to repurchase price would be less than 96.
$6K Outflow from Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy
4. Sold 50 of 100 WBSPRE at $25.32-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: +$6.92
I discussed buying this 50 share lot here.
$6K Inflow into Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
D. Issuer Optional Redemptions-$1K Par Value Bonds With Make Whole Provisions and IB Account Bond Allocation:
Anheuser-Busch InBev is going to redeem early its 1.25% SU note maturing on 1/17/18. I own 3 of those bonds. The redemption date is 11/10/17 or just two months prior to maturity. Anheuser Busch InBev to Redeem Five Series of senior Notes due 2018.pdf While this bond is subject to a make whole provision, there would not be any material difference to the bond owners given the low coupon and the two month difference between the redemption and maturity dates.
This kind of early redemption is fairly common and is frequently part of a larger refinancing plan that includes other securities maturing within a specific time frame. In this case, BUD has four other senior bonds maturing next year, all with significantly higher coupons than the 1.25% coupon, that are also being called at the same time.
I will make a slight profit on the 3 bonds when they are redeemed. Two of the bonds were purchased on 12/29/16 and the other one last January. (2 of the bonds are owned in my Fidelity account and 1 in my IB trading account)
Currently, in my IB trading account, I own the following bonds with a net unrealized gain of $329.41. The BUD 1/2018 bond that is being called is listed at the top:
Several of these bonds are also owned in other accounts.
The realized gain currently stands at $160.27.
I have reduced my interest rate risk some with those dispositions. There are a number of short term corporate bonds remaining in this account. Two of the three XEL bonds shown above are actually issued by Public Service of Colorado, a wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), and are first mortgage bonds. ( Bond Detail for 9/15/22 Maturity; Bond Detail for 3/15/23 Maturity) The one is a first mortgage bond issued by another wholly owned XEL subsidiary, Northern States Power: Bond Detail for 8/15/22 Maturity (rated Aa3 by Moody's)
As to the dollar size of the bond positions my IB account would be at #4, below the Vanguard accounts, and way under the Fidelity and Schwab bond allocations which include Tennessee municipal bonds and a wide array of investment grade corporate bonds. My largest taxable account is Fidelity which is about 90% in bonds, CDs and cash at the moment with the remainder in common stocks. That account has seen by far the largest reallocation out of stocks and is consequently the best positioned with maturities every week for a reallocation back into stocks.
Most of my common stock weighting is in T.Rowe Price and Vanguard mutual funds.
Even though I have exceeded my annual goal of between $15K to $25K in trading profits, I am continuing to be active in the short term stock trading. I am not talking about a day holding period, but more like several weeks or months where I harvest one or more dividend payments and a a profit on the shares, selecting stocks that I would be willing to hold during a correction at the price paid.
6. Deeply Contrarian Basket Strategy:
A. Added 20 CPB at $45.72-Used Commission Free Trade:
This purchase was made the day before the ex dividend date.
The stock price had declined more than the value of the $.35 per share quarterly dividend:
Closing Price: 10/11/17: $45.74 Down $.5
My last foray into CPB is not working out so far. Nonetheless, I decided to add 20 more shares bringing my total position to 50 shares.
Dump Campbell, Buy These 4 Consumer Staples Stocks Instead - October 11, 2017 - Zacks.com
I am either being aggressively contrarian with this add or intentionally masochistic. I am not sure either explanation is a positive one.
I discussed buying the previous 30 share lot here: Item #2: Bought Back 30 CPB at $51 The heading for that section was "100% Contrarian Strategy-Though With No Conviction as to Near Term Positive Catalysts". That purchase was made on 7/10/17.
I had a profit in that lot as the shares rose to almost $54 by mid-August. I actually seriously considered selling this lot near $54, but apparently forgot to carry through. The CPB share price has been relentlessly downhill since then. CPB Stock Chart Perhaps, the pessimism has been laid on too thick. That is just a feel type item.
I will reinvest the dividend. Campbell Declares Quarterly Dividend
Since my earlier discussion, Campbell did report its fiscal 4th quarter earnings for the period ending 7/30/17. The report was released on 8/31/17: Campbell Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results
That report provided no reason for CPB shareholders to pop the champaign cork.
Campbell's Brands
In the simple meal and beverage category, which includes soups, sales "in the quarter decreased 3 percent to $815 million driven primarily by declines in soup and V8 beverages. Sales of U.S. soup decreased 4 percent driven by declines in condensed soups, broth and ready-to-serve soups, reflecting a reduction in retailer inventory levels while consumer takeaway in measured channels was comparable to the prior-year quarter. For the fiscal year, sales of U.S. soup decreased 1 percent."
In the "fresh" product category, revenues "in the quarter increased 1 percent to $225 million driven primarily by higher sales of Garden Fresh Gourmet, carrots and carrot ingredients. Sales of Bolthouse Farms refrigerated beverages declined slightly, reflecting supply constraints. Segment operating earnings in the quarter decreased from $8 million to a loss of $8 million, reflecting higher administrative expenses, higher carrot costs and the continued cost impact of enhanced quality processes and related beverage capacity constraints." So the company was having operational problems in this category.
The biscuit and snack segment had the overall best performance. Revenues "in the quarter were comparable to the prior year at $624 million, as gains in Pepperidge Farm snacks, reflecting continued growth in Goldfish crackers, as well as gains in Arnott’s biscuits in Australia, were offset by declines in Indonesia. Segment operating earnings increased 35 percent to $109 million. The increase was primarily driven by a higher gross margin percentage, lower advertising and consumer promotion expenses and lower administrative expenses."
Excluding items, E.P.S. was reported at $3.04 for the fiscal year, up from $2.94 in the prior year.
Debt and Proposed Pacific Foods Acquisition:
Moody's: Campbell Soup acquisition of Pacific Foods is credit positive
This proposed acquisition of Pacific Foods is for $700M in cash. Campbell to Acquire Pacific Foods to Expand in Faster-Growing Health and Well-Being Categories (7/6/17 Press Release) This deal is at risk due to a lawsuit filed by the estate of a former Pacific Foods shareholder and co-founder who died in May 2015. Campbell Soup says Pacific Foods lawsuit puts deal at risk - MarketWatch; After co-founder of Pacific Foods dies, fight erupts over $250 million | OregonLive.com
The company ended the quarter and fiscal year with $319M in cash and $2.499B in long term debt and $1.037B in short term borrowings. Of the short term borrowings, $874M was in commercial paper with a weighted average interest rate of 1.31% as of 7/31/17. (Page 58 Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 7/31/17)
Campbell's sold $300M of a senior unsecured note in 2015 which was its most recent bond offering. Moody's rated the bond A3. The coupon was 3.3% with a maturity date in 2025. Prior to that offering, the company sold in 2012 $450M in 2.5% SU notes maturing in 2022 and $400M in 3.8% SU notes maturing in 2042. Prospectus Supplement
Issue with WMT:
CPB mentioned that it was unable to agree on a seasonal promotion with a major customer. CBP did not identify the customer but Credit Suisse says it is WMT who is putting the squeeze on Campbell. To play ball, WMT wants lower everyday prices for CPB condensed soups. CS expects CPB to give up 100bps of top line. I derived that information from a CS report dated 9/5/17 that is available to Charles Schwab customers as are the Morningstar reports. Credit Suisse had at that time an underperform rating and a $43 price target, below the then current price.
In the Morningstar report dated 8/30/17, the fair value estimate was then at $53 and the stock had a three star rating.
In the S & P report dated 9/30/17, the stock had a 3 star rating and a $50 twelve month price target.
Argus has a hold rating but a long term buy in a report dated 9/13/17. That is close to my view. I expect CPB to maintain its U.S. moat in soups with close to a 60% share. I would consider selling my shares at over $53.
All of those reports are currently available to Schwab customers.
Campbell Takes Actions to Reshape Portfolio toward Faster-Growing Spaces; Outlines Fiscal 2018 Priorities (7/19/17 Press Release)
At the time of my last purchase, the EPS consensus for the current F/Y was $3.06 and $3.16 for the next F/Y: CPB Analyst Estimates
I do have a history of successfully trading CPB shares, with my largest gain realized in 2010, but the past may not be prologue for the future.
I discussed buying this 50 share lot here.
As discussed in a previous comment, I expect this security will be called by the issuer on 12/15/17, the earliest optional call date. Prospectus Supplement
Par Value $25
Optional Call: On or Before 12/15/17 at Par Value
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and Qualified
Coupon 6.4%
Issuer: The Bank Holding Company Webster Financial Corp.
I will hold the other 100 shares, held in my Vanguard account and generating $40 per quarter in dividends, until redemption. I have to pay a $7 commission in that account to sell the lot. A redemption at par value occurs without a brokerage commission being charged. I will take a small loss on that lot when there is a redemption at par value as shown below:
5. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 MB Financial 1.5% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 1/16/19:
Holding Company: MB Financial Inc. (MBFI)
MBFI Analyst Estimates
B. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 1.45% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 11/13/18 (13 month CDs):
C. Bought 2 Franklin Synergy Bank 1.2% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 2/28/18 (4 month CDs): Par Value $25
Optional Call: On or Before 12/15/17 at Par Value
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and Qualified
Coupon 6.4%
Issuer: The Bank Holding Company Webster Financial Corp.
I will hold the other 100 shares, held in my Vanguard account and generating $40 per quarter in dividends, until redemption. I have to pay a $7 commission in that account to sell the lot. A redemption at par value occurs without a brokerage commission being charged. I will take a small loss on that lot when there is a redemption at par value as shown below:
5. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 MB Financial 1.5% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 1/16/19:
Holding Company: MB Financial Inc. (MBFI)
MBFI Analyst Estimates
B. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 1.45% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 11/13/18 (13 month CDs):
$6K Inflow into Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
D. Issuer Optional Redemptions-$1K Par Value Bonds With Make Whole Provisions and IB Account Bond Allocation:
Anheuser-Busch InBev is going to redeem early its 1.25% SU note maturing on 1/17/18. I own 3 of those bonds. The redemption date is 11/10/17 or just two months prior to maturity. Anheuser Busch InBev to Redeem Five Series of senior Notes due 2018.pdf While this bond is subject to a make whole provision, there would not be any material difference to the bond owners given the low coupon and the two month difference between the redemption and maturity dates.
This kind of early redemption is fairly common and is frequently part of a larger refinancing plan that includes other securities maturing within a specific time frame. In this case, BUD has four other senior bonds maturing next year, all with significantly higher coupons than the 1.25% coupon, that are also being called at the same time.
I will make a slight profit on the 3 bonds when they are redeemed. Two of the bonds were purchased on 12/29/16 and the other one last January. (2 of the bonds are owned in my Fidelity account and 1 in my IB trading account)
Currently, in my IB trading account, I own the following bonds with a net unrealized gain of $329.41. The BUD 1/2018 bond that is being called is listed at the top:
Several of these bonds are also owned in other accounts.
The realized gain currently stands at $160.27.
I have reduced my interest rate risk some with those dispositions. There are a number of short term corporate bonds remaining in this account. Two of the three XEL bonds shown above are actually issued by Public Service of Colorado, a wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), and are first mortgage bonds. ( Bond Detail for 9/15/22 Maturity; Bond Detail for 3/15/23 Maturity) The one is a first mortgage bond issued by another wholly owned XEL subsidiary, Northern States Power: Bond Detail for 8/15/22 Maturity (rated Aa3 by Moody's)
As to the dollar size of the bond positions my IB account would be at #4, below the Vanguard accounts, and way under the Fidelity and Schwab bond allocations which include Tennessee municipal bonds and a wide array of investment grade corporate bonds. My largest taxable account is Fidelity which is about 90% in bonds, CDs and cash at the moment with the remainder in common stocks. That account has seen by far the largest reallocation out of stocks and is consequently the best positioned with maturities every week for a reallocation back into stocks.
Most of my common stock weighting is in T.Rowe Price and Vanguard mutual funds.
Even though I have exceeded my annual goal of between $15K to $25K in trading profits, I am continuing to be active in the short term stock trading. I am not talking about a day holding period, but more like several weeks or months where I harvest one or more dividend payments and a a profit on the shares, selecting stocks that I would be willing to hold during a correction at the price paid.
6. Deeply Contrarian Basket Strategy:
A. Added 20 CPB at $45.72-Used Commission Free Trade:
This purchase was made the day before the ex dividend date.
The stock price had declined more than the value of the $.35 per share quarterly dividend:
Closing Price: 10/11/17: $45.74 Down $.5
My last foray into CPB is not working out so far. Nonetheless, I decided to add 20 more shares bringing my total position to 50 shares.
Dump Campbell, Buy These 4 Consumer Staples Stocks Instead - October 11, 2017 - Zacks.com
I am either being aggressively contrarian with this add or intentionally masochistic. I am not sure either explanation is a positive one.
I discussed buying the previous 30 share lot here: Item #2: Bought Back 30 CPB at $51 The heading for that section was "100% Contrarian Strategy-Though With No Conviction as to Near Term Positive Catalysts". That purchase was made on 7/10/17.
I had a profit in that lot as the shares rose to almost $54 by mid-August. I actually seriously considered selling this lot near $54, but apparently forgot to carry through. The CPB share price has been relentlessly downhill since then. CPB Stock Chart Perhaps, the pessimism has been laid on too thick. That is just a feel type item.
I will reinvest the dividend. Campbell Declares Quarterly Dividend
Since my earlier discussion, Campbell did report its fiscal 4th quarter earnings for the period ending 7/30/17. The report was released on 8/31/17: Campbell Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results
That report provided no reason for CPB shareholders to pop the champaign cork.
Campbell's Brands
In the simple meal and beverage category, which includes soups, sales "in the quarter decreased 3 percent to $815 million driven primarily by declines in soup and V8 beverages. Sales of U.S. soup decreased 4 percent driven by declines in condensed soups, broth and ready-to-serve soups, reflecting a reduction in retailer inventory levels while consumer takeaway in measured channels was comparable to the prior-year quarter. For the fiscal year, sales of U.S. soup decreased 1 percent."
In the "fresh" product category, revenues "in the quarter increased 1 percent to $225 million driven primarily by higher sales of Garden Fresh Gourmet, carrots and carrot ingredients. Sales of Bolthouse Farms refrigerated beverages declined slightly, reflecting supply constraints. Segment operating earnings in the quarter decreased from $8 million to a loss of $8 million, reflecting higher administrative expenses, higher carrot costs and the continued cost impact of enhanced quality processes and related beverage capacity constraints." So the company was having operational problems in this category.
The biscuit and snack segment had the overall best performance. Revenues "in the quarter were comparable to the prior year at $624 million, as gains in Pepperidge Farm snacks, reflecting continued growth in Goldfish crackers, as well as gains in Arnott’s biscuits in Australia, were offset by declines in Indonesia. Segment operating earnings increased 35 percent to $109 million. The increase was primarily driven by a higher gross margin percentage, lower advertising and consumer promotion expenses and lower administrative expenses."
Excluding items, E.P.S. was reported at $3.04 for the fiscal year, up from $2.94 in the prior year.
Debt and Proposed Pacific Foods Acquisition:
Moody's: Campbell Soup acquisition of Pacific Foods is credit positive
This proposed acquisition of Pacific Foods is for $700M in cash. Campbell to Acquire Pacific Foods to Expand in Faster-Growing Health and Well-Being Categories (7/6/17 Press Release) This deal is at risk due to a lawsuit filed by the estate of a former Pacific Foods shareholder and co-founder who died in May 2015. Campbell Soup says Pacific Foods lawsuit puts deal at risk - MarketWatch; After co-founder of Pacific Foods dies, fight erupts over $250 million | OregonLive.com
The company ended the quarter and fiscal year with $319M in cash and $2.499B in long term debt and $1.037B in short term borrowings. Of the short term borrowings, $874M was in commercial paper with a weighted average interest rate of 1.31% as of 7/31/17. (Page 58 Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 7/31/17)
Campbell's sold $300M of a senior unsecured note in 2015 which was its most recent bond offering. Moody's rated the bond A3. The coupon was 3.3% with a maturity date in 2025. Prior to that offering, the company sold in 2012 $450M in 2.5% SU notes maturing in 2022 and $400M in 3.8% SU notes maturing in 2042. Prospectus Supplement
Issue with WMT:
CPB mentioned that it was unable to agree on a seasonal promotion with a major customer. CBP did not identify the customer but Credit Suisse says it is WMT who is putting the squeeze on Campbell. To play ball, WMT wants lower everyday prices for CPB condensed soups. CS expects CPB to give up 100bps of top line. I derived that information from a CS report dated 9/5/17 that is available to Charles Schwab customers as are the Morningstar reports. Credit Suisse had at that time an underperform rating and a $43 price target, below the then current price.
In the Morningstar report dated 8/30/17, the fair value estimate was then at $53 and the stock had a three star rating.
In the S & P report dated 9/30/17, the stock had a 3 star rating and a $50 twelve month price target.
Argus has a hold rating but a long term buy in a report dated 9/13/17. That is close to my view. I expect CPB to maintain its U.S. moat in soups with close to a 60% share. I would consider selling my shares at over $53.
All of those reports are currently available to Schwab customers.
Campbell Takes Actions to Reshape Portfolio toward Faster-Growing Spaces; Outlines Fiscal 2018 Priorities (7/19/17 Press Release)
At the time of my last purchase, the EPS consensus for the current F/Y was $3.06 and $3.16 for the next F/Y: CPB Analyst Estimates
I do have a history of successfully trading CPB shares, with my largest gain realized in 2010, but the past may not be prologue for the future.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Aratana Therapeutics, Inc. (PETX)
ReplyDelete$6.79+0.54 (+8.64%)
As of 10:39AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PETX?p=PETX
I own this one in my small cap biotech lottery ticket basket, and the rise today brings me closer to break-even. I have a small unrealized loss of less than $100 now.
PETX got smashed last February after it had to delay the marketing of Entyce, its appetite stimulant for dogs, due to the inability of its then existing drug manufacturer to produce commercial quantities. When it changed manufacturers, it had to secure the FDA's approval and that delayed the drug's introduction into the marketplace.
I had criticized management for its failure to recognize the problem sooner and for what appeared to be its failure to notify investors of the problem in a timely fashion. A number of class action suits were filed against PETX as a result.
Possibly, management has a defense, and I am unaware of any developments in those lawsuits. I view the entire episode as a symptom of a really small drug company trying to bring too many approved drugs to market by itself.
Aratana announced today that it has received approval for marketing:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aratana-therapeutics-announces-launch-of-entyce-capromorelin-oral-solution-300536559.html
PETX: I checked my positions today and found that I owned 80 shares in my Schwab account and 50 shares in my IB account. The later position was barely profitable at today's close and the purchase originates from the 2016 summer:
DeleteItem # 2. Bought 50 PETX at $6.43:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4900464-update-healthcare-basket-strategy-7-29-16-growing-lottery-ticket-component
I have an unrealized loss in the Schwab position of about $70, so I used a commission free trade today to buy 20 shares at $6.5, bringing me up to 100 shares in that account.
Aratana Therapeutics, Inc. (PETX)
$6.55+0.30 (+4.80%)
Day's Range 6.41 - 7.17
52 Week Range 4.97 - 9.23
Volume 1,233,192
Avg. Volume 251,773
Market Cap 281.66M
PETX now has three drugs for dogs on the market.
I would add the following caveats.
First there is a class action lawsuit that is pending; and I suspect the company will have to pay something to get rid of it.
Second, the other two drugs were not yet producing sufficient revenue to generate a profit, as shown in the second quarter report, but both were recent launches.
I anticipated that this small company may not be in the best position to actively market and promote drugs without the help of a deep pockets partner.
http://aratana.investorroom.com/2017-08-03-Aratana-Therapeutics-Reports-Second-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results
Eli Lilly's animal unit is involved with one of them, Galliprant, a drug for canine osteoarthritis.
http://www.aratana.com/therapeutics/osteoarthritis-pain/
"Aratana estimates that as of June 30, 2017, GALLIPRANT is available in more than 10,000 veterinary clinics with more than 75 percent of those clinics having re-ordered the therapeutic."
LLY's animal unit paid PETX $45M when the drug was approved in 2016.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1509190/000150919016000068/petx-20160425x8k.htm
NOCITA is approved to treat post-operative pain relief for cranial cruciate ligament surgery in dogs.
The company has some drugs in its pipeline:
http://www.aratana.com/pipeline/
One of those compounds, AT-014, an investigational therapeutic for the treatment of canine osteosarcoma, may be approved for marketing this quarter.
Another product, AT-103, may also receive approval this quarter. As I understand it, AT103 is Nocita for cats.
Then, as set forth in the press release, "Aratana's collaboration partner, VetStem BioPharma, continues the pivotal field safety study and, separately, the pivotal field effectiveness study for AT-016, an adipose-derived allogeneic stem cell therapeutic candidate for osteoarthritis pain in dogs, with results anticipated from both in 2017."
"Eventually, all of this push and pull on healthcare insurance which creates chaos and increases costs will result in Medicare/Medicaid for all."
ReplyDeleteThis is common sense which, as we know, is not so common at all, and certainly not among politicians. But thank you for expressing it so succinctly.
Omega Healthcare (OHI) did announce last week a 1 cent per share increase in its quarterly dividend to $.65. The announcement was made after last Thursday's close:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171012006386/en/
As previously discussed, this dividend increase will at least cause me to monitor the price more closely for a potential purchase.
The shares rose $.28 per share to close at $31.69, but are trading down slightly today:
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI)
31.65-0.04 (-0.13%)
Last Updated: Oct 16, 2017 1:43 p.m. EDT
My last transaction was to pare further my position by selling shares at $32.56 using a commission free trade.
Item # 6 10/5/17 Post
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent.html
Immune Design Corp. (IMDZ)
ReplyDelete9.18-0.93 (-9.16%)
As of 10:39AM EDT.
Day's Range 8.60 - 10.55
52 Week Range 4.50 - 13.05
Volume 245,916
Avg. Volume 171,316
Market Cap 235.061M
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMDZ?ql=1&p=IMDZ
After the close yesterday, IMDZ rose close to 10% as I recall after announcing that it had received positive FDA feedback and planned to initiate "a pivotal Phase 3 trial to support a Biologics License Application (BLA) for CMB305, a novel cancer vaccine, in patients with synovial sarcoma."
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/10/16/1148353/0/en/Immune-Design-Announces-Positive-FDA-Feedback-on-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Design-for-CMB305-in-Synovial-Sarcoma-Patients.html
So almost a 20% price swing from the after market price from yesterday to now.
FDA approval is still along way off and will of course depend on the trial's outcome:
"The trial will have progression free survival (PFS) followed by overall survival (OS) as co-primary endpoints. If the PFS endpoint is successful, the FDA offered that it may support full approval of CMB305. Depending on the rate of events, final PFS analysis may occur as early as 24 months from the first patient dosed."
I own 60 shares as part of my small cap biotech lottery ticket basket and was up about 100% prior to today's pullback.
According to SeekingAlpha, Wells Fargo downgraded IMDZ to market perform today and that is probably enough to explain the steep drop in this micro cap clinical stage biotech. RBC, on the other hand, raised its price target to $23:
Deletehttps://seekingalpha.com/news/3301562-wells-downgrade-weighs-immune-design-shares-13-percent
Whatever, I view IMDZ as a lottery ticket and a hold for me. None of its compounds are in late stage 3 trials, and there is a long way to go, assuming one or more successful trials, before it will secure marketing approval for one of its investigational compounds.
http://www.immunedesign.com/pipeline/
Possibly the best short term result, meaning for the next year or so, would be a premium takeover offer or some update on a phase 3 trials progress that is clearly positive.
And there will be more capital raises.
The last stock offering was at $6.25 during 2016.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437786/000119312516712112/d234213d424b5.htm
IMDZ does have an ATM with Cowan for up to $50M in stock sales:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437786/000119312517221076/d414558d424b5.htm
IMDZ made this statement in its 2017 second quarter report:
"Based on current expectations, Immune Design continues to expect to have cash to fund operations into the second half of 2018."
So expect a capital raise at anytime time now unless IMDZ can find a partner willing to advance big bucks.
GE: Goldman Sachs joined the chorus today opining that GE's dividend is in jeopardy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/goldman-bet-against-ge-dividend-cut-is-coming.html
The GS analyst cut the price target to $24 from $26, so he has gone from negative to slightly more negative.
While I have largely abandoned GE as an investment, my natural contrarian streak believes there is still hope for the future, but not anytime soon as I previously argued.
Cutting the dividend again will certainly put GE on the permanent avoid list for many individual investors who will join institutional investors in their wholesale dumping of the stock. There is never any thought about the managers and Board of GE taking a cut in their compensation and perks. That certainly did not happen in conjunction with the last 66% cut back in 2009.
And, the current attitude is all understandable, but maybe just too deeply imbued with pessimism for those with a 3 to 5 year horizon and a willingness to reinvest the dividend at current levels. At least, that is my thinking and how I am prone to think anyway.
The stock may also pop some if the dividend is not cut since that belief has now become pervasive. A dividend cut is even being priced into GE's future stock price.
GS stated that "the options market is pricing in a cut of the payout to 78 cents in 2018" from $.96 now.
The CNBC article refers to the current yield of 4.1% as a "hefty yield", and the second highest yield among DJIA components. For the OLD GEEZER crowd who invested in the 1970s through most of the 1980s, 4.1% is not hefty. In fact, I remember GE having a 8% dividend yield at one point in the early 1980s. And if it is hefty by more modern post Near Depression standards, it is only hefty because GE stock owners have lost far more through price depreciation.
My conviction on the turnaround is not burning to say the least.
I bought 30 shares in a Roth IRA at $23.9 on 9/7/17:
Item 2 (9/25/17 Post)
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/09/observations-and-sample-of-recent_25.html
For the first time in about 7 years, I did turn on my dividend reinvestment for my remaining Fidelity position which currently has 124+ shares at an average cost per share of $12.03. I will keep reinvesting the dividend until the price goes over $28 persistently.
Hi SG
ReplyDeleteI know you have owned some WBA bonds to 2026; I wondered what you thought of the stock at these price levels 0f @ 67; it looks like a falling knife and the heady days of growth may be over ; now Amazon lurks, but over 30 % of sales are foreign and I wondered if at these levels, you thought the stock at least bears watching! Yield 2.4 and p/e below 15
Sam
Sam: It has been awhile since I owned the common stock. I traded some shares when the ticker was WAG, several years before it became Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.
DeleteI no longer have a position in the bonds but it is hard to say without checking.
You asked me a few months ago about CVS and I have the same problems with Walgreens. I do not understand why anyone would shop there rather than at WMT or some other discount box retailer or online. The prices are out of sync with the competition. The stores around here are nice but expensive to build and operate which makes price competition even more difficult. While it is too early to put a dagger in the heart to a possible prescription challenge from Amazon, I view the entire drug delivery business, starting with the pharmacy benefit managers, to the pharmacies to be worthy of a stake in the heart.
Amazon certainly knows distribution and drug delivery to the consumer is a distribution business in need of much low profit fat throughout the delivery structure.
So I don't like it. I see the stock has gone from $82.6 on 9/18/16 to $67.4 today. That is certainly a falling knife with no signs yet of a bottoming process taking hold. The P/E is low based on estimates:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wba/analystestimates
Personally, I would WBA as a trade but I have no grip yet on a purchase price given investors massive change in perception about the future of its businesses.
IBM after Hours Today:
ReplyDelete$154.72 +$8.18 +5.58%
After hours: 7:59PM EDT
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ibm-results/ibm-beats-revenue-estimates-hints-at-sales-growth-idUSKBN1CM2XJ?il=0
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/ibm-earnings-q3-2017.html
Needless to say, IBM's stock has lagged way behind other old tech names like Cisco, Intel and Microsoft. I own Cisco and Intel. My ownership of IBM is indirect through funds, notably the ETF TDIV where IBM has been a drag on performance. IBM's weighting in that ETF was 7.91% as of 10/16/17:
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=TDIV
I may own around 200 shares or slightly more.
I last discussed a TDIV purchase here:
4. Added 50 TDIV at $31.28-Vanguard Account ($7 commission):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/07/observations-and-sample-of-recent_29.html
IBM is propping up the DJIA today and is causing that index to outperform the broader S & P 500 where it has a lower weighting.
DeleteInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
$159.17+12.63 (+8.62%)
As of 10:29AM EDT
Volume 13,152,070
Avg. Volume 3,954,144
I was curious whether the Vanguard Equity Income (VEIRX) mutual fund, which remains my largest stock fund position, owned any IBM.
The answer is no, as of 6/30/17. Given IBM's earnings and revenues over the past two years or so, that is not surprising.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsAllHoldings?FundId=0565&FundIntExt=INT&tableName=Equity&tableIndex=0&sort=marketValue&sortOrder=desc
The fund does weight GE at #11 which is surprising since most investors would put GE in the same bag as IBM. Both stocks have seen better days.
+++++
The Bond Ghouls are not happy today. It is possible that a few of them are starting to contemplate the possibility that the consensus inflation forecast could conceivably be in error.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
Viacom and Charter have reached an agreement in principle on new carriage agreement:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-viacom-charter-commns/viacom-and-charters-spectrum-reach-programming-deal-idUSKBN1CN054
http://deadline.com/2017/10/viacom-charter-make-deal-carriage-contract-1202190257/
GE and the JPM Analyst Stephen Tusa:
ReplyDeleteIt seems like everyday now that Mr. Tusa feels compelled to slam GE. He could just provide one report, lay out his bear case, and leave it alone until he has more information. More information will be forthcoming this Friday when GE reports.
But, he just can not leave it alone which to me is more of a sign of wishing to hear himself talk and being at the center of attention, sort of like our President. Those are clear narcissistic personality traits. I would like to see GE throw a pie in his face.
Today, Mr. Tusa gave more reasons why investors can stick a fork in GE until the end of days, though possibly he is contemplating a shorter period.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3301828-ge-options-include-dividend-cut-exiting-baker-hughes-analyst-says
http://www.barrons.com/articles/general-electric-the-funs-just-getting-started-1508347680?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
+++
I started to leave comments to NYT articles. I am not expressing opinions so much as correcting reality creations, which are routinely made by Trump supporters and to a far lesser extent the liberals.
The Trump True Believers and the liberals do share one reality creation. Trump stated again today that the insurance companies were raking in billions of profits from Obamacare and the CSR payments were bailouts of the insurance industry. Many liberals share the same view, though they are inclined to recognize that the CSR payments are designed to lower out-of-pocket expenses for eligible buyers of the the silver plan.
So insurance companies are leaving the exchanges in droves because they can not stand making so much money. It is just killing them which is why they are cutting back or ending their participation.
If Trump wants to bailout UnitedHealth (UNH) for example, the government will need to that company a billion dollar check to cover their losses just in 2015 and 2016. It cut back to providing policies in just 3 states as of 1/1/17.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2016/10/18/unitedhealth-absorbs-obamacare-losses-as-optum-profits-soar/#4dc132a95509
Blue Cross of Tennessee lost over $400 million in my state over the past three years and that included 2016 when they cut their exposure way back.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/news/economy/obamacare-knoxville-tennessee-bluecross/index.html
Trump is a Demagogue who engages in deception everyday, rarely missing a single day and frequently engaging in multiple deceptions during the day. The end result of this GOP lie about insurance companies has become part of the herd consensus opinion. An informed investor knows better and someone exercising a slither of common sense would recognize the absurdity of this GOP claim in light of the carriers leaving Obamacare in droves. But common sense is in very short supply in America today.
Now, here is the rub. I cite the evidence and it is ignored of course and people just continue making their reality creations. For those inclined to live in that alternate universe, no amount of accurate information will cause them to question their created reality.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_19.html