Economy:
US GDP Q2 2019 final In the final estimate, real GDP growth was reported at 2% in the second quarter, unchanged from the prior estimate. Comparison of 2nd and 3rd Revisions.pdf
"The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent." (emphasis supplied)
Business investment was revised down however to a -1% annualized rate from -.6%. Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2019 (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Full Release + Tables 3rd Estimate for 2019 Second Quarter.pdf
Real GDP growth this year looks like it will be in the 2.2% to 2.5% range.
As of 9/27/19, the Atlanta Fed's GDP model estimates 3rd quarter growth at 2.1% which is the same forecast as the NY Fed's model. GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (estimate for 4th quarter at 1.8%)
Personal consumption expenditures rose a meagre .1% in August:
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2019 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
US GDP Q2 2019 final In the final estimate, real GDP growth was reported at 2% in the second quarter, unchanged from the prior estimate. Comparison of 2nd and 3rd Revisions.pdf
"The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent." (emphasis supplied)
Business investment was revised down however to a -1% annualized rate from -.6%. Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2019 (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Full Release + Tables 3rd Estimate for 2019 Second Quarter.pdf
Real GDP growth this year looks like it will be in the 2.2% to 2.5% range.
As of 9/27/19, the Atlanta Fed's GDP model estimates 3rd quarter growth at 2.1% which is the same forecast as the NY Fed's model. GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (estimate for 4th quarter at 1.8%)
Personal consumption expenditures rose a meagre .1% in August:
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2019 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Fed’s Bullard says the end of an era of free trade is imperiling the U.S. economy - MarketWatch;
US new home sales August 2019
US new home sales August 2019
New-home sales rebounded 7.1% in August, flirting again with a 12-year high - MarketWatch
new-single-family-home-sales-increased-7.1percent-in-august (points out that decline in inventory could negatively impact future sales some)
I am anticipating that slight rises in mortgage rates will have an outsized negative impact on existing and new home sales. The slight uptick in mortgage rates for the week ending 9/20/19 resulted in a 10.1% seasonally adjusted decline in new mortgage applications. Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | Mortgage Bankers Association
new-single-family-home-sales-increased-7.1percent-in-august (points out that decline in inventory could negatively impact future sales some)
I am anticipating that slight rises in mortgage rates will have an outsized negative impact on existing and new home sales. The slight uptick in mortgage rates for the week ending 9/20/19 resulted in a 10.1% seasonally adjusted decline in new mortgage applications. Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | Mortgage Bankers Association
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
A news story published last Friday caused the Stock Jocks to have a slight and well contained anxiety attack. What investors need to know about a potential White House effort to block U.S. investment in China - MarketWatch; Trump administration deliberates block on all US investments in China The significant damage was limited to Chinese stocks traded as ADRs. It is far from clear what measures are actually being considered.
If the story is accurate, the consideration of this drastic move would indicate that China is not budging much on its opposition to key U.S. demands ahead of the talks scheduled on October 10 in D.C.
The Stock Jocks are not expressing any concern about Trump's Ukraine problem.
Street says impeachment isn't a threat to Trump, but could mire trade Since there are currently 53 republican senators, and 67 out of 100 votes are needed for a conviction, I would agree Trump is safe from removal through the impeachment process irrespective of the credible evidence supporting articles of impeachment.
There are some who disagree with that assessment. George Conway, for example, believes that enough republican senators will vote to convict but will say nothing until uttering the word "guilty". George Conway Predicts Republicans Will Turn on Trump if House Votes to Impeach: 'He's Done the Indefensible'
A republican senator allegedly claimed that 30 republican senators would vote to convict provided they could cast secret ballots. Andrea Mitchell on Twitter The former GOP senator Jeff Flake said that there were at least 35 republican senators who would vote to impeach using a secret ballot. Jeff Flake: 'At least 35' GOP senators would vote to remove Trump I doubt there would be more than 3 who would vote to convict in a secret ballot, but only if God guaranteed the secrecy for all eternity.
A news story published last Friday caused the Stock Jocks to have a slight and well contained anxiety attack. What investors need to know about a potential White House effort to block U.S. investment in China - MarketWatch; Trump administration deliberates block on all US investments in China The significant damage was limited to Chinese stocks traded as ADRs. It is far from clear what measures are actually being considered.
If the story is accurate, the consideration of this drastic move would indicate that China is not budging much on its opposition to key U.S. demands ahead of the talks scheduled on October 10 in D.C.
The Stock Jocks are not expressing any concern about Trump's Ukraine problem.
Street says impeachment isn't a threat to Trump, but could mire trade Since there are currently 53 republican senators, and 67 out of 100 votes are needed for a conviction, I would agree Trump is safe from removal through the impeachment process irrespective of the credible evidence supporting articles of impeachment.
There are some who disagree with that assessment. George Conway, for example, believes that enough republican senators will vote to convict but will say nothing until uttering the word "guilty". George Conway Predicts Republicans Will Turn on Trump if House Votes to Impeach: 'He's Done the Indefensible'
A republican senator allegedly claimed that 30 republican senators would vote to convict provided they could cast secret ballots. Andrea Mitchell on Twitter The former GOP senator Jeff Flake said that there were at least 35 republican senators who would vote to impeach using a secret ballot. Jeff Flake: 'At least 35' GOP senators would vote to remove Trump I doubt there would be more than 3 who would vote to convict in a secret ballot, but only if God guaranteed the secrecy for all eternity.
Stocks may be poised for dramatic surge, technical analysts say A dramatic upward surge from SPX 3000 will simply cause me to sell into it.
There is a lot of garbage being sold in IPO market at asinine valuations. Jim Cramer warns of dot-com era parallels: It's 'not a normal market'
+++++++
Trump:
The days are long gone when senator Barry Goldwater made this comment about Nixon's impeachment on 8/6/1974: "There are only so many lies you can take, and now there has been one too many. Nixon should get his ass out of the White House -- today!" When the GOP Torpedoed Nixon - POLITICO
Donald can do whatever he wants, tell 50+ thousand lies, undermine institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy, obstruct justice and delay investigations with frivolous legal arguments, threaten foreign leaders for personal political gain, and all of that and lot more is okay in the modern day GOP. That is just the way it is.
Biden probe was condition for Trump-Zelenskiy phone call: Ukrainian official This same factoid was noted in the whistleblower's complaint.
Donald released a summary, prepared from notes, of his conversation with Ukraine's President. Unclassified 09/20/19.pdf; Trump told Ukraine that US has been "very, very good" to country before asking for "favor," transcript shows
No transcript of the call has been released yet.
Even though the summary clearly shows Trump pushing Ukraine's President Zelensky to investigate the Biden's, Zelensky said no one pushed him during a joint press conference with Donald.
Trump’s call with Ukrainian president shows him offering U.S. assistance for Biden investigation
Analysis: 7 takeaways from Trump’s call with Ukraine’s president
Trump Attacks Whistle-Blower’s Sources and Alludes to Punishment for Spies - The New York Times Trump: “I want to know who’s the person who gave the whistle-blower the information because that’s close to a spy. You know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart with spies and treason, right? We used to handle it a little differently than we do now.” Listen: Audio of Trump discussing whistleblower at private event: ‘That’s close to a spy’ - Los Angeles Times
Whistle-Blower Is a C.I.A. Officer Who Was Detailed to the White House
This timeline of Trump's Ukraine-Biden scandal is damning-The Washington Post Notwithstanding the timeline, Senator Lindsey Graham claimed there was nothing worthy to examine, a "nothing burger" in his words. After Graham's "nothing burger" statement, the Trumpsters knew what to say and started to parrot his statement.
Lindsey Graham calls the Ukraine transcript 'very appropriate.' That is a typical response among republican politicians. Their tolerance for Trump's misbehavior and repulsive conduct, his strongly authoritarian impulses and pro-global warming environmental policies, need to be kept in mind when voting in November 2020. Republicans On Trump-Ukraine Call: This Is Fine If Donald wins reelection, then America is fine with all of that and far worse that can be reasonably predicted from a second term. At the moment, it is too close to call.
Graham led the impeachment of Bill Clinton as a congressman. Sen. Lindsay Graham called for Bill Clinton impeachment in 1999: High crime 'doesn't even have to be a crime' | McClatchy Washington Bureau Graham got an extra heavy dose of the hypocrisy gene.
Barr's relationship with Trump called into question again by Ukraine call-Justice Dept. rejected investigation of Trump phone call just weeks after it began examining the matter Barr was implicated by Trump in his call with Ukraine's President.
The whistleblower complaint was released publicly last Thursdays with some redactions. Read the full text of the Trump-Ukraine whistleblower complaint I view it as required reading for all U.S. citizens who can read, including the footnotes-particularly the footnotes on page 5.
Republicans do not want anyone to read the whistleblower's complaint and the summary of the phone conversation since that would interfere with their knowingly false narratives and deliberately misleading spin about the contents of those two documents. Chris Wallace: Whistleblower spin from Trump supporters 'deeply misleading' | TheHill
Analysis: 5 key takeaways and allegations from the Trump whistleblower complaint
8 Takeaways From the Whistle-Blower Complaint
Will this cause Donald and his cult members from continuing their smears? Ukraine's prosecutor says no probe into Biden; Hunter Biden 'did not violate anything,' former Ukrainian prosecutor says; Ukrainian prosecutor says Joe Biden, Hunter Biden did not violate laws Facts of course do not matter to Donald and his cult members.
A quick guide to Trump’s false claims about Ukraine and the Bidens - The Washington Post
Donald claims that it whistleblowers second hand statements have proven inaccurate:
Donald does not provide a single example of course. That is not his style.
The whistleblower's summary of Donald's phone call with Ukraine's President was spot on based on the summary of that conversation released by the WH.
And the WH has now admitted that the whistleblower was correct in claiming the summary of the telephone call was placed in a computer system containing only the most highly classified and sensitive U.S. secrets, a previously unheard of practice. White House admits moving transcript of Ukraine call to secure system
Donald has boatloads of campaign money and will be running false ads like the one described in the following article throughout the election season. Trump campaign ad accuses Democrats of trying to steal 2020 election - MarketWatch Lying works for him and lying all of the time about everything works even better.
Trump threatens to release ISIS captives at European borders
The days are long gone when senator Barry Goldwater made this comment about Nixon's impeachment on 8/6/1974: "There are only so many lies you can take, and now there has been one too many. Nixon should get his ass out of the White House -- today!" When the GOP Torpedoed Nixon - POLITICO
Donald can do whatever he wants, tell 50+ thousand lies, undermine institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy, obstruct justice and delay investigations with frivolous legal arguments, threaten foreign leaders for personal political gain, and all of that and lot more is okay in the modern day GOP. That is just the way it is.
Biden probe was condition for Trump-Zelenskiy phone call: Ukrainian official This same factoid was noted in the whistleblower's complaint.
Donald released a summary, prepared from notes, of his conversation with Ukraine's President. Unclassified 09/20/19.pdf; Trump told Ukraine that US has been "very, very good" to country before asking for "favor," transcript shows
No transcript of the call has been released yet.
Even though the summary clearly shows Trump pushing Ukraine's President Zelensky to investigate the Biden's, Zelensky said no one pushed him during a joint press conference with Donald.
Trump’s call with Ukrainian president shows him offering U.S. assistance for Biden investigation
Analysis: 7 takeaways from Trump’s call with Ukraine’s president
Trump Attacks Whistle-Blower’s Sources and Alludes to Punishment for Spies - The New York Times Trump: “I want to know who’s the person who gave the whistle-blower the information because that’s close to a spy. You know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart with spies and treason, right? We used to handle it a little differently than we do now.” Listen: Audio of Trump discussing whistleblower at private event: ‘That’s close to a spy’ - Los Angeles Times
Whistle-Blower Is a C.I.A. Officer Who Was Detailed to the White House
This timeline of Trump's Ukraine-Biden scandal is damning-The Washington Post Notwithstanding the timeline, Senator Lindsey Graham claimed there was nothing worthy to examine, a "nothing burger" in his words. After Graham's "nothing burger" statement, the Trumpsters knew what to say and started to parrot his statement.
Lindsey Graham calls the Ukraine transcript 'very appropriate.' That is a typical response among republican politicians. Their tolerance for Trump's misbehavior and repulsive conduct, his strongly authoritarian impulses and pro-global warming environmental policies, need to be kept in mind when voting in November 2020. Republicans On Trump-Ukraine Call: This Is Fine If Donald wins reelection, then America is fine with all of that and far worse that can be reasonably predicted from a second term. At the moment, it is too close to call.
Graham led the impeachment of Bill Clinton as a congressman. Sen. Lindsay Graham called for Bill Clinton impeachment in 1999: High crime 'doesn't even have to be a crime' | McClatchy Washington Bureau Graham got an extra heavy dose of the hypocrisy gene.
Barr's relationship with Trump called into question again by Ukraine call-Justice Dept. rejected investigation of Trump phone call just weeks after it began examining the matter Barr was implicated by Trump in his call with Ukraine's President.
The whistleblower complaint was released publicly last Thursdays with some redactions. Read the full text of the Trump-Ukraine whistleblower complaint I view it as required reading for all U.S. citizens who can read, including the footnotes-particularly the footnotes on page 5.
Republicans do not want anyone to read the whistleblower's complaint and the summary of the phone conversation since that would interfere with their knowingly false narratives and deliberately misleading spin about the contents of those two documents. Chris Wallace: Whistleblower spin from Trump supporters 'deeply misleading' | TheHill
Analysis: 5 key takeaways and allegations from the Trump whistleblower complaint
8 Takeaways From the Whistle-Blower Complaint
Will this cause Donald and his cult members from continuing their smears? Ukraine's prosecutor says no probe into Biden; Hunter Biden 'did not violate anything,' former Ukrainian prosecutor says; Ukrainian prosecutor says Joe Biden, Hunter Biden did not violate laws Facts of course do not matter to Donald and his cult members.
A quick guide to Trump’s false claims about Ukraine and the Bidens - The Washington Post
Donald claims that it whistleblowers second hand statements have proven inaccurate:
The whistleblower's summary of Donald's phone call with Ukraine's President was spot on based on the summary of that conversation released by the WH.
And the WH has now admitted that the whistleblower was correct in claiming the summary of the telephone call was placed in a computer system containing only the most highly classified and sensitive U.S. secrets, a previously unheard of practice. White House admits moving transcript of Ukraine call to secure system
Donald has boatloads of campaign money and will be running false ads like the one described in the following article throughout the election season. Trump campaign ad accuses Democrats of trying to steal 2020 election - MarketWatch Lying works for him and lying all of the time about everything works even better.
Trump threatens to release ISIS captives at European borders
I am hoping that Justice Kavanaugh will follow Donald's advice and sue the NYT for libel:
Both Kavanaugh and Donald need to be questioned under oath by competent counsel for at least one day about sexual assaults allegedly committed by them, preferably on national TV after full discovery of the facts and production of relevant documents.
Kavanaugh would have a zero chance of winning that libel suit and everyone who has made accusations can tell there version of events as well.
Disgusting Don has routinely used libel litigation in the past to silence anyone daring to speak the truth about him. Donald J. Trump Is A Libel Bully But Also A Libel Loser
In Trumpworld, this report is just more fake news: Climate change report: U.N. climate report warns rising sea levels could displace millions - CBS News; Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate — Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
A Fox News guest called Greta Thunberg, the 16 Year old Environmental advocate from Sweden, ‘mentally ill.’
Donald Trump Mocks 16-year-old Greta Thunberg, Twitter Reacts: 'She Has More Class in Her Little Finger' That goes without saying.
For republicans, Greta is simply a vessel for left wing environmental nutcases who want to put worms in everyone's head about fake client science.
One of of the most prominent members of the republican intelligentsia, Dinesh D'Souza, posted a photo of Greta next to a Nazi child with similar braided hair to prove that point to the True Believers. Dinesh D'Souza Compares Activist Greta Thunberg to a Nazi
"Bully commentary born of anger": Fox News host Laura Ingraham mocks 16-year-old girl with autism | Salon.com This is standard MO for Ms. Ingraham, who has a prime time, hour long program on Fox every weekday night to spew her venom and slavish servile support for the Duck.
Andrew R. Wheeler, the former coal lobbyiest who now heads the EPA, has threatened to cut off California's highway funds. EPA threatens to cut California road funding over Clean Air Act 'failure'-Los Angeles Times Donald is incensed that California and other states want to reduce greenhouse gases.
The GOP is without question in favor of more global warming and proud of it.
500,000 kids could lose free school lunch under Trump plan: USA Today; Trump administration rule could end free school lunches for about 500,000 children - The Washington Post
+++++
1. Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 50 SKT at $16.85 ($1 IB Commission):
A. Sold 50 SKT at $16.85 ($1 IB Commission):
Quote: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT)
Closing Price Last Friday: SKT $15.61 -$0.18 -1.14%
Profit Snapshot: $38.48
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 SKT at $16.06 (8/10/19 Post)
Goal in this Account: Clip Dividend(s) and Sell at a Profit
I received one quarterly dividend.
Current Position: 30 shares. I have an ongoing small ball buying program in my Fidelity account using commission free trades. The average cost per share in that account is currently at $14.73, with the last purchases made at $14.6 and $14.29: Item # 1.D. (9/4/19 Post) The highest cost lot in that account was bought at $15.31: Item # 5.A. Bought 10 SKT at $15.31-Used Commission Free Trade (8/14/19 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at $.3555 ($1.42 annually)
Dividend Yield at TC of $14.73 (30 shares) = 9.64%
5 Year SKT Chart: Widow Maker
I am not a fan.
2. Bought 50 FFHPRD at C$16.84:
Quote: FFH.PRD | Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. Cum. Floating Rate Pfd. Series D Overview | MarketWatch
Category: Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks
Security Description:
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 3.15% Spread to the 3 month Canadian Treasury bill.
Prospectus Excerpt:
Definition of Terms Relevant to Series D:
Issuer: Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)
Dividends: Variable
This kind of security provides some inflation protection when and if the Bank of Canada starts to raise short term rates to combat inflationary pressures. Given the discount to par value, the current dividend yield is decent even with the Canadian 3 month bill near 1.5%.
If the 3 month Canadian T bill by some miracle was at 4% on a computation date, the annualized yield would be 10.62% at a total cost of C$16.84 per share. (.0715% coupon x. C$25 par value = $1.7875 per share annually ÷ C$16.84 cost per share = 10.62%) Needless to say, the worldwide Central Bank Jihad Against the Savings Class will not be ending anytime soon.
Last Quarterly Dividend: C$.31142
Fairfax Announces Quarterly Dividend on Series C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and M Preferred Shares and Quarterly Dividend Rate for Series D, F, H and J Shares
Chart:
Quote 3 Month Canadian T Bill: Canada 3 Month Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
3 month Canadian Treasury Bill Historical: 3-Month or 90-day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada-St. Louis Fed
Closing Price Last Friday: SKT $15.61 -$0.18 -1.14%
Profit Snapshot: $38.48
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 SKT at $16.06 (8/10/19 Post)
Goal in this Account: Clip Dividend(s) and Sell at a Profit
I received one quarterly dividend.
Current Position: 30 shares. I have an ongoing small ball buying program in my Fidelity account using commission free trades. The average cost per share in that account is currently at $14.73, with the last purchases made at $14.6 and $14.29: Item # 1.D. (9/4/19 Post) The highest cost lot in that account was bought at $15.31: Item # 5.A. Bought 10 SKT at $15.31-Used Commission Free Trade (8/14/19 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at $.3555 ($1.42 annually)
Dividend Yield at TC of $14.73 (30 shares) = 9.64%
5 Year SKT Chart: Widow Maker
I am not a fan.
2. Bought 50 FFHPRD at C$16.84:
Quote: FFH.PRD | Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. Cum. Floating Rate Pfd. Series D Overview | MarketWatch
Category: Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks
Security Description:
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 3.15% Spread to the 3 month Canadian Treasury bill.
Prospectus Excerpt:
Issuer: Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)
Dividends: Variable
This kind of security provides some inflation protection when and if the Bank of Canada starts to raise short term rates to combat inflationary pressures. Given the discount to par value, the current dividend yield is decent even with the Canadian 3 month bill near 1.5%.
If the 3 month Canadian T bill by some miracle was at 4% on a computation date, the annualized yield would be 10.62% at a total cost of C$16.84 per share. (.0715% coupon x. C$25 par value = $1.7875 per share annually ÷ C$16.84 cost per share = 10.62%) Needless to say, the worldwide Central Bank Jihad Against the Savings Class will not be ending anytime soon.
Last Quarterly Dividend: C$.31142
Fairfax Announces Quarterly Dividend on Series C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and M Preferred Shares and Quarterly Dividend Rate for Series D, F, H and J Shares
Chart:
Quote 3 Month Canadian T Bill: Canada 3 Month Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
3 month Canadian Treasury Bill Historical: 3-Month or 90-day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada-St. Louis Fed
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
October Maturities:
SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
FM = First Mortgage Bond
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured
MI = Monthly Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills Bought at Auction
Corporate bonds are bought at less than par value as are all treasuries bought in the secondary market.
9 DTE Entergy 1.5% SU 10/1/19 (bought 12/17, 2/18, 3/19)
10 Treasury 28 Day Bill 10/1 2.098%IR (bought at auction)
1 Treasury 2.45% YTM 10/3 (secondary market)
3 Treasury 2.193% IR 10/3 (3 mo T Bills bought at auction)
2 GM Finance 2.35% SU 10/4 (bought 3/19)
2 Humana 2.625% SU 10/1 (bought 9/18)
1 BK Ozarks 2.55% CDs 10/4 (9 month CD)
2 GM Finance 2.35% SU 10/4 (bought 3/19)
5 Treasury 56 day Bills IR 2.091% 10/8 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 28 day Bills IR 2.062%% 10/8 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 1% 10/15 (secondary market)
1 Treasury 3 Year Note 10/15 (Treasury Direct Purchase)
1 Dow 2.5% SU 10/15 (bought 1/18)
5 Treasury 56 Day bills % IR (bought at auction)
1 Enterprise Products 2.55% SU 10/15 (bought 8/18)
3 Treasury 6 month bills 2.46% IR 10/17 (bought at auction)
2 General Mills 2.2% SU 10/21 (bought 1/18)
2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs 10/21 (4 month CDs)
Corporate bonds are bought at less than par value as are all treasuries bought in the secondary market.
9 DTE Entergy 1.5% SU 10/1/19 (bought 12/17, 2/18, 3/19)
10 Treasury 28 Day Bill 10/1 2.098%IR (bought at auction)
1 Treasury 2.45% YTM 10/3 (secondary market)
3 Treasury 2.193% IR 10/3 (3 mo T Bills bought at auction)
2 GM Finance 2.35% SU 10/4 (bought 3/19)
2 Humana 2.625% SU 10/1 (bought 9/18)
1 BK Ozarks 2.55% CDs 10/4 (9 month CD)
2 GM Finance 2.35% SU 10/4 (bought 3/19)
5 Treasury 56 day Bills IR 2.091% 10/8 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 28 day Bills IR 2.062%% 10/8 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 1% 10/15 (secondary market)
1 Treasury 3 Year Note 10/15 (Treasury Direct Purchase)
1 Dow 2.5% SU 10/15 (bought 1/18)
5 Treasury 56 Day bills % IR (bought at auction)
1 Enterprise Products 2.55% SU 10/15 (bought 8/18)
3 Treasury 6 month bills 2.46% IR 10/17 (bought at auction)
2 General Mills 2.2% SU 10/21 (bought 1/18)
2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs 10/21 (4 month CDs)
2 J.P. Morgan 2.2% SU 10/22 (bought 1/18)
5 Treasury 56D Bills 10/22 2.024% IR (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 56D Bills 10/22 2.024% IR (bought at auction)
2 Goldman Sachs 2.55% 10/23 (bought 9/18)
1 Comenity BK 1.7% CD MI 10/23 (2 year CD)
2 Mainsource BK 1.7% CDs MI 10/24 (2 year CDs)
2 Treasury 6 MO Bill 2.47%IR (bought at auction)
2 Treasury 6 MO Bill 2.47%IR (bought at auction)
1 Whitney BK 1.75% CD 10/25 (2 year CD)
2 Hanmi BK 1.7% CDs MI 10/25
3 Treasury 56D Bill 2.29%IR 10/29 (bought at auction)
12 Hancock 2.05% CDs 10/30 (1 month CD)
3 Treasury 56D Bill 2.29%IR 10/29 (bought at auction)
12 Hancock 2.05% CDs 10/30 (1 month CD)
1 Treasury 1.5% 10/31 (secondary market)
4 Treasury 1.25% 10/31 (secondary market)
2 Treasury 2.465% IR 10/31 (6 Mo. T Bill bought at auction)
4 Treasury 1.25% 10/31 (secondary market)
2 Treasury 2.465% IR 10/31 (6 Mo. T Bill bought at auction)
$106K
Proceeds from maturing securities are flooding into short term bills and CDs.
I have not sold any corporate bond recently. I am still discussing some corporate bond trades made prior to September.
A. Sold 2 EBAY 2.875% SU Maturing on 8/1/21:
Profit Snapshot: +$41.34
Item # 2.B. Bought 2 EBAY 2021 SU at a TC of 99.233 (2/9/19 Post)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: eBay Inc. (EBAY)
EBAY Analyst Estimates
Sold at 101.4
YTM at 101.4 = 2.054%
Proceeds at 101.3 (after $1 per bond commission)
B. Sold 2 Wells Fargo 3% SU Maturing on 1/22/21:
Profit Snapshot: +$33.91
Item # 2.C. Bought 1 WFC 2021 SU at a T.C. of 99.838 (9/2/18 Post) YTM then at 3.069% at TC.
Item # 2.A. Bought 1 WFC 2021 SU at a TC of 99.171 (11/28/18 Post) YTM was then at 3.398%.
I bought the two bonds in 1 bond lots in August and November 2018.
The WFC bonds are generally liquid and easy to trade even in 1 bond lots.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
WFC Analyst Estimates
Sold at 101.3
YTM at 101.2 = 2.043%
C. Issuer Early Redemption-HTA 3.375% SU Maturing on 7/15/21-Roth IRA Account:
Issuer: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)
Profit Snapshot: $52.56
Item #4.A. Bought 2 HTA 2021 SU at a Total Cost of 99.853 (7/18/18 Post)
I mentioned in my last post that HTA had redeemed early my 4 SU bonds maturing in 2022 that triggered a $27.34 per bond make whole payment.
The make whole payment for this 2021 HTA SU was $24.81 per bond.
I currently own 50 common shares and 2 HTA 3.5% SU bonds maturing in 2026: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88-Used Commission Free Trade (7/13/19 Post); Item # 3.D. Bought 2 HTA 3.5% 2026 SU at a TC of 98,346 (6/17/17 POST)-Finra Bond Detail
I will trade the common and have done so in the past. I am far from enthusiastic about my 50 share position. I did note that D.A. Davidson last Friday raised its recommendation to buy from neutral and increased its PT to $33 from $27 for whatever that may be worth.
D. Bought at Auction 3 Treasury 6 MO Bills Maturing on 3/12/20:
1.873% IR
Auction Results:
I have now lost interest in these low yielding 6 month treasury bills.
E. Bought 5 Hancock Bank 2.05% CDs Maturing on 10/30/19 (1 month CD):
Holding Company Hancock Whitney (HWC)
F. Bought 7 Hancock Bank 2.05% CDs Maturing on 10/30/19-In a Roth IRA Account (1 month CD):
G. Bought 5 Treasury 3 Month Bills at Auction Maturing on 12/5/19:
1.972%IR
Auction Results:
Proceeds from maturing securities are flooding into short term bills and CDs.
I have not sold any corporate bond recently. I am still discussing some corporate bond trades made prior to September.
A. Sold 2 EBAY 2.875% SU Maturing on 8/1/21:
Profit Snapshot: +$41.34
Item # 2.B. Bought 2 EBAY 2021 SU at a TC of 99.233 (2/9/19 Post)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: eBay Inc. (EBAY)
EBAY Analyst Estimates
Sold at 101.4
YTM at 101.4 = 2.054%
Proceeds at 101.3 (after $1 per bond commission)
B. Sold 2 Wells Fargo 3% SU Maturing on 1/22/21:
Profit Snapshot: +$33.91
Item # 2.C. Bought 1 WFC 2021 SU at a T.C. of 99.838 (9/2/18 Post) YTM then at 3.069% at TC.
Item # 2.A. Bought 1 WFC 2021 SU at a TC of 99.171 (11/28/18 Post) YTM was then at 3.398%.
I bought the two bonds in 1 bond lots in August and November 2018.
The WFC bonds are generally liquid and easy to trade even in 1 bond lots.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
WFC Analyst Estimates
Sold at 101.3
YTM at 101.2 = 2.043%
C. Issuer Early Redemption-HTA 3.375% SU Maturing on 7/15/21-Roth IRA Account:
Issuer: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)
Profit Snapshot: $52.56
Item #4.A. Bought 2 HTA 2021 SU at a Total Cost of 99.853 (7/18/18 Post)
I mentioned in my last post that HTA had redeemed early my 4 SU bonds maturing in 2022 that triggered a $27.34 per bond make whole payment.
The make whole payment for this 2021 HTA SU was $24.81 per bond.
I currently own 50 common shares and 2 HTA 3.5% SU bonds maturing in 2026: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88-Used Commission Free Trade (7/13/19 Post); Item # 3.D. Bought 2 HTA 3.5% 2026 SU at a TC of 98,346 (6/17/17 POST)-Finra Bond Detail
I will trade the common and have done so in the past. I am far from enthusiastic about my 50 share position. I did note that D.A. Davidson last Friday raised its recommendation to buy from neutral and increased its PT to $33 from $27 for whatever that may be worth.
D. Bought at Auction 3 Treasury 6 MO Bills Maturing on 3/12/20:
1.873% IR
Auction Results:
E. Bought 5 Hancock Bank 2.05% CDs Maturing on 10/30/19 (1 month CD):
F. Bought 7 Hancock Bank 2.05% CDs Maturing on 10/30/19-In a Roth IRA Account (1 month CD):
G. Bought 5 Treasury 3 Month Bills at Auction Maturing on 12/5/19:
1.972%IR
Auction Results:
4. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/23-In a Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: $15.43
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of who does not guarantee the bond
Sold at 102.73
YTM at 102.73 = 2.233%
A. Sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/23-In a Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: $15.43
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of who does not guarantee the bond
Sold at 102.73
YTM at 102.73 = 2.233%
B. Sold 1 Ventas L.P. 3.125% SU Maturing on 6/15/23:
Profit Snapshot: +$39.86
Item # 4.A. Bought 1 VTR 2023 at a TC of 98.466 (3/12/2018 Post) YTM was then at 3.443%.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating entity for Ventas Inc (VTR) who guarantees the notes
Sold at 103.065
YTM at 103.065 = 2.218%
I still own 2 bonds with one of those owned in a Roth IRA account. Item # 1.C. (3/10/17 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$39.86
Item # 4.A. Bought 1 VTR 2023 at a TC of 98.466 (3/12/2018 Post) YTM was then at 3.443%.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating entity for Ventas Inc (VTR) who guarantees the notes
Sold at 103.065
YTM at 103.065 = 2.218%
I still own 2 bonds with one of those owned in a Roth IRA account. Item # 1.C. (3/10/17 Post)
C. Sold 1 Virginia Electric Power 2.75% SU Maturing on 3/15/23-In a Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot = $21.12
Item # 1.B. Bought 1 Virginia Electric 2023 SU at a Total Cost of 99.417-In a Roth IRA Account (3/20/17 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Sold at 101.729
YTM at 101.729 = 2.201%
Profit Snapshot = $21.12
Item # 1.B. Bought 1 Virginia Electric 2023 SU at a Total Cost of 99.417-In a Roth IRA Account (3/20/17 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Sold at 101.729
YTM at 101.729 = 2.201%
5. Regional Bank Basket Strategy:
I have turned cautious on regional bank stocks and consequently decided to eliminate or pare my few remaining positions.
There are two fundamental reasons. First, non-performing loans and charge-offs to total loan ratios are at cycle lows. The next major move will not be down but up. Second, notwithstanding the recent move up in intermediate term rates, the net interest margin compression is likely to continue IMO.
These bank stocks could be crushed if the Fed keeps lowering interest rates - MarketWatch
I am also satisfied with the $51K+ gains already realized in this basket which I started in the 2009 Spring. Given that the total realized gain was made with small lot trades, plus the dividends received, I am more than satisfied with the result.
My overall out-of-pocket exposure to regional bank stocks is less than $8K and consists of small positions in FHB, FNB, HOPE, NYCB and TRST.
All of the following sells were made with commission free trades.
Net Realized Gains to Date-Regional Bank Basket = $51,359.24 (start date: Spring 2009)
Snapshots at Regional Bank Basket Strategy
A. Pared FNB-Sold 20 at $11.42:
Quote: F.N.B. Corp.
F.N.B. Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Last Friday: FNB $11.54 $-0.02 -0.17%
FNB 5 Year Interactive Chart: Unfavorable
Profit Snapshot (ex prior sell): +$18.59
I sold my highest cost lot in my Fidelity account which reduced my average cost per share from $9.99 to $9.67. The FNB position is in this account is subject to the small ball trading rules.
Position Before Pare:
Position After Pare:
I recently discussed a purchase of FNB in another account and have nothing to add to that discussion. Item # 1.A. Bought 100 FNB at $11.72-IB Account (8/14/19 Post) As noted in that post, I viewed that purchase to be a mistake as to price given the subsequent yield curve inversion becoming more unfavorable to banks.
FNB Realized Gains to Date: $1,219.06 ($1,200.47 in prior trades)
B. Eliminated HBAN-Sold 51+ at $14.5:
Quote: Huntington Bancshares Inc. Stock (HBAN)
Closing Price Last Friday: HBAN $14.35 +$0.10 +0.70%
HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$52.58
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Sold 104+ HBAN at $14.65 and 102+ at $14.57 (8/17/19 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post.
HBAN Realized Gains to Date: +$629.33 ($576.75 in prior trades)
C. Eliminated FHN-Sold 21+ at $16.4:
Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Closing Price Last Friday: FHN $16.29 -$0.04 -0.24%
Profit Snapshot (ex prior sell): +$58.87
Last Discussion: Item # 4.A. Sold 25 FHN at $15.92-Used Commission Free Trade (8/24/19 Post) I discussed the 2019 second quarter earnings report in that post.
D. Eliminated CFG-Sold 30+ at $36.07:
Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)
CFG Analyst Estimates
SEC Filings
CFG Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
Closing Price Last Friday: CFG $35.38 +$0.22 +0.63%
Profit Snapshot: +$39.02
Last Discussion: Item # 3.C. (1/13/19 Post)
I currently own 4 CFG SU bonds maturing in 2021. Item # 2.B. Bought 2 CFG 2.375% SU Maturing on 7/28/21 at a TC of 98.838 (4/14/19 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 2 CFG 2021 SU at a Total Cost of 98.92 (1/27/17 Post) Those bonds are likely to be held until redeemed by the issuer.
I have turned cautious on regional bank stocks and consequently decided to eliminate or pare my few remaining positions.
There are two fundamental reasons. First, non-performing loans and charge-offs to total loan ratios are at cycle lows. The next major move will not be down but up. Second, notwithstanding the recent move up in intermediate term rates, the net interest margin compression is likely to continue IMO.
These bank stocks could be crushed if the Fed keeps lowering interest rates - MarketWatch
I am also satisfied with the $51K+ gains already realized in this basket which I started in the 2009 Spring. Given that the total realized gain was made with small lot trades, plus the dividends received, I am more than satisfied with the result.
My overall out-of-pocket exposure to regional bank stocks is less than $8K and consists of small positions in FHB, FNB, HOPE, NYCB and TRST.
All of the following sells were made with commission free trades.
Net Realized Gains to Date-Regional Bank Basket = $51,359.24 (start date: Spring 2009)
Snapshots at Regional Bank Basket Strategy
A. Pared FNB-Sold 20 at $11.42:
F.N.B. Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Last Friday: FNB $11.54 $-0.02 -0.17%
FNB 5 Year Interactive Chart: Unfavorable
Profit Snapshot (ex prior sell): +$18.59
I sold my highest cost lot in my Fidelity account which reduced my average cost per share from $9.99 to $9.67. The FNB position is in this account is subject to the small ball trading rules.
Position Before Pare:
Position After Pare:
I recently discussed a purchase of FNB in another account and have nothing to add to that discussion. Item # 1.A. Bought 100 FNB at $11.72-IB Account (8/14/19 Post) As noted in that post, I viewed that purchase to be a mistake as to price given the subsequent yield curve inversion becoming more unfavorable to banks.
FNB Realized Gains to Date: $1,219.06 ($1,200.47 in prior trades)
B. Eliminated HBAN-Sold 51+ at $14.5:
Quote: Huntington Bancshares Inc. Stock (HBAN)
Closing Price Last Friday: HBAN $14.35 +$0.10 +0.70%
HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$52.58
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Sold 104+ HBAN at $14.65 and 102+ at $14.57 (8/17/19 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post.
HBAN Realized Gains to Date: +$629.33 ($576.75 in prior trades)
C. Eliminated FHN-Sold 21+ at $16.4:
Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Closing Price Last Friday: FHN $16.29 -$0.04 -0.24%
Profit Snapshot (ex prior sell): +$58.87
Last Discussion: Item # 4.A. Sold 25 FHN at $15.92-Used Commission Free Trade (8/24/19 Post) I discussed the 2019 second quarter earnings report in that post.
D. Eliminated CFG-Sold 30+ at $36.07:
Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)
CFG Analyst Estimates
SEC Filings
CFG Analyst E.P.S. Estimates
Closing Price Last Friday: CFG $35.38 +$0.22 +0.63%
Profit Snapshot: +$39.02
Last Discussion: Item # 3.C. (1/13/19 Post)
I currently own 4 CFG SU bonds maturing in 2021. Item # 2.B. Bought 2 CFG 2.375% SU Maturing on 7/28/21 at a TC of 98.838 (4/14/19 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 2 CFG 2021 SU at a Total Cost of 98.92 (1/27/17 Post) Those bonds are likely to be held until redeemed by the issuer.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
