ARGD, CHN, CHIQ, CLOU, EBGEF, FTSPRM, GNL, MNR, PBCT, PWFPRT, RDS/B, SCHK, SCM, THQ, WTBA

Economy:

US weekly jobless claims For the week ending 5/16, DOL reported first  2.438M in initial unemployment claims, down 249K from the prior week. Initial claims will drift down as the economy reopens, provided the virus cooperates with the reopening push. DOL News Release The total new unemployment insurance claims related to the pandemic now stands at 38.6M.  

Jobless claims jump 2.4 million in mid-May — but the number is almost 1 million higher when federal filings are included - MarketWatch The federal program allows for self-employed workers and independent contractors eligible for unemployment benefits.  

Last week, the CBO projected that 2nd quarter GDP will decline by 38%. For the fiscal year ending in September 2020, the CBO predicts a federal government budget deficit of $2.2 trillion. CBO projects 38% drop in GDP, $2.1 trillion increase in the deficit I suspect that the $2.1T deficit prediction will be on the  optimistic side. 

The Atlanta Fed's GDP model currently estimates 2nd quarter GDP at -41.9% annualized rate. GDPNow-Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Merrill Lynch's number is at -40%. Goldman Sachs' model is more optimistic at a -39% decline. 

Fed's April 2020 Meeting Minutes ("Members further concurred that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and posed considerable downside risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.")

Discussion of Fed's  April meeting minutes 

Last Tuesday, Donald represented that infection rates were coming down, everything was going back to normal, and the economy would soar in the 3rd and 4th quarters and in 2021:

Trump: "We’re going to have a really good third quarter. It’s already happening. You see it; you see what’s going on. We’re opening up. The states are opening up. Numbers are going down as they open. Look at Georgia. Look at Florida. Look at others. We have states that are opening up, and the numbers are going down.

But it’s a transition to greatness.  It’s the third quarter, and then it’s going into the fourth quarter. I think the fourth quarter is going to be really good. But I think that, above all, next year you’re going to have a tremendous year." end of Trump quote. Remarks by President Trump After Senate GOP Policy Lunch | U.S. Capitol | The White House 

US housing starts April 2020 (down 30.2% to a 5 year low)  

Philly Fed manufacturing index shows continued weakness in May - MarketWatch (-34.1%)

The U.S. is in ‘relative decline’ as ‘Chinese power is rapidly rising,’ warns Ray Dalio - MarketWatch

++++++

Markets and Market Commentary:

Highest CD Rates-Fidelity

Stock-market traders brace for ‘dogfight’ as S&P 500 lingers below its 200-day moving average - MarketWatch

This is an interesting article that contains some kernels of my frequently postulated long term prediction. cited in Of Two Minds - Our Fate Is Sealed, Vaccines Won't Matter: Four Long Cycles Align, cited and discussed in ‘Call it fate, call it karma’-Why the coronavirus is merely ‘the final kick into the abyss’ for the U.S. economy-MarketWatch 

I would not claim that the Day of Reckoning is close or that investment decisions can not now be predicated on its occurrence. We will need to be closer in time for the Stock Jocks and other investors to react to the inevitability. 

A ‘much more severe’ selloff looms in the stock market, strategist warns - MarketWatch

The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist says-MarketWatch The economist is David Rosenberg, who have mocked in the past, but he has a reasonable forecast now IMO for the near future.  

Walmart (WMT) earnings Q1 2021 soar during coronavirus crisis 

Britain sells its first bonds at a negative interest rate-MarketWatch Several European nations have been selling bonds at negative interest rates. Britain has now joined that list.  

Germans paid to borrow as negative rates reach consumers- Reuters Does this sound rational to anyone? 

++++++++

Trump:

Trump (2/24/20): “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA." Trump's Statements About the Coronavirus - FactCheck.org

As of 5/22/20

Study estimates 24 states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread (5/23/20)

TRUMP: "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases." Trump on coronavirus testing: “When you test, you have a case” - Vox   

By changing the punctuations and the formatting, I have recognized that the preceding statement, made by the self-proclaimed Extremely Stable Genius, is not the usual idiotic gibberish but a poem.  

"The Test" by Doofus Don, an Extremely Stable Genius in TrumpWorld

When you 
test 
you have a case

When you 
test
you find
something 
is wrong 
with people 

If we didn’t 
do any 
testing 

we would have 
very few cases. 

Without a doubt, Donald is a genius in TrumpWorld, one of that world's leading intellectuals and savants. 

And, in the Alternate Reality known as TrumpWorld, the way to bring the Covid-19 infection rate down to almost zero is to refrain from any testing. 

Trump deems houses of worship 'essential' amid coronavirus pandemic and threatens to override governors  

Trump slams governors, demands they open houses of worship 'right now'

Trump: "The governors need to do the right thing and allow these very important essential places of faith to open right now, this weekend. If they don't do it, I will override the governors." (emphasis added)

Donald does believe that his presidential power has no limits and has made that claim on many occasions. All the times Trump said the constitution let's him do whatever he wants - YouTube

Donald has no legitimate power to overrule governors who have closed mass gatherings. 

A court with jurisdiction could enjoin enforcement of an order prohibiting large religious gatherings as an infringement of religious freedom guaranteed by the Constitution's First Amendment. Dictator Don does not have the authority. 

That kind of court decision requires balancing the police power of the state to protect its citizens from a pandemic with the exercise of religious freedoms. Federal Judge Blocks Kansas Limits on Religious Gatherings | Kansas News | US News; Court upholds California ban on church services in coronavirus pandemic - Los Angeles Times; Coronavirus and religious liberty: Pastors sue for right to hold services - Vox; Opposing Church Closures Becomes New Religious Freedom Cause-NPR So far the lower court decisions are not consistent with one another.  

Houses of worship, which Trump says are essential, are coronavirus hotspots - Business Insider The entire epidemic in South Korea started with a church congregation. 

Any large gathering risks widespread infections, hospitalizations and deaths, which is irrelevant to Demagogue Don, who is simply pandering to  his evangelical base that overwhelmingly voted for him in 2016 and will do so again in 2020. If people die, that is just too bad since the only thing that matters is Trump winning reelection. 

Some churches will reopen with social distancing and mandatory mask wearing. Others will ignore one or both of those precautions and they will become hot spots for their members and communities. 

Trump ramps up retaliatory purge with firing of State Department inspector general The IG was investigating Pompous Pompeo so he had to go. 

The government whistleblower Dr. Rick Bright who says the Trump administration's coronavirus response has cost lives - 60 Minutes - CBS News Donald responded that it was Dr. Bright who caused great harm and injustice. Trump says coronavirus whistleblower Rick Bright is ‘causing great injustice and harm’ - The Washington Post 

Just about everything is turned upside down in Trump's America. 

Trump has sidelined the CDC. Growing friction between White House, CDC hobbles pandemic response (Trump awarded a $10.2M contract to a private company called TeleTracking, to provide the same data that is collected by the CDC. Maybe that company will provide Donald with far fewer infections and deaths due to the pandemic); White House tensions with CDC spill into public view as top Trump adviser criticizes agency response

'We've been muzzled': CDC sources say White House putting politics ahead of science

Nebraska refuses to disclose coronavirus rates at meatpacking plants - The Washington Post 

Angry confrontations between 'reopen' protesters, News 12's Kevin Vesey (there is a remarkable nationwide consistency on how Trumpsters respond to reporters covering them)


US medical mask maker blasts government for failing to prepare for pandemic: 'I've been ignored for so long' 

Pentagon fires its point person for Defense Production Act Donald recently installed a Trumpster, Michael Cutrone, to vet DOD officials subservience to Donald. Trump Taps Point Man to Remove Pentagon Officials Seen as Disloyal; Trump sending ally to Pentagon to vet officials' loyalty: report

Trump goes without mask on trip to Pennsylvania PPE factory Trump also stated several times that Covid-19 tests are overrated. Teflon Don has made it clear to anyone listening with functioning brain cells that the rising number of infections is bad for him. 

Trump Spreads Distorted Claim on Wuhan Lab Funding - FactCheck.org

Where the U.S. Ranks in COVID-19 Deaths Per Capita - FactCheck.org (U.S. has one of the highest death rates per capita. Trump made the following false claim:  “Germany and the United States are the two best in deaths per 100,000 people.”)

Federal government to begin gathering data on covid-19 deaths in nursing homes - The Washington Post (5/7/20 article)

Eric Trump on 'Judge Jeanine' show claims coronavirus is Democratic hoax, will ‘magically’ vanish after 2020 election - The Washington Post

Inspector General’s Firing Puts Pompeo’s Use of Taxpayer Funds Under Scrutiny 

It is unusual for Barr to push back on one of Trump's outlandish requests. William Barr just punched a hole in Trump’s baseless ‘Obamagate’ trial balloon  

Trump calls Romney a ‘LOSER’ following sharp criticism for firing inspectors general

Trump threatens to permanently cut WHO funding, leave body if changes aren’t made within 30 days; see Demagogue Don' tweet and his letter to the WHO contained therein. The Lancet rebuts Trump's claims in WHO letter  

"Women, you have to treat 'em like shit": a new ad turns Trump's quotes against him - Vox

Trump to CBS's Paula Reid: "Just A Rude Person You Are. Enough Of You" | Video | RealClearPolitics In TrumpWorld, women have to know their place. 

Judge allows fraud suit against Trump, family and company to proceed; Lawsuit claims Trump, kids made millions off scams

++++ 

Doctor Don's Miracle Cure: 

Last week, Doctor Don disclosed that he was taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventive measure. Despite FDA Caution, Trump Says He Is Taking Hydroxychloroquine As A Preventive 

Many will follow Doctor Don's recommendation to take this malaria drug even though they are not infected with COVID-19 and the drug has well known and potentially serious side effects.  Some will die, but Doctor Don will not be responsible. Donald takes no responsibility for the consequences of his actions.  

Donald repeated last Monday his claim that there was nothing to lose by taking this drug. Trump: “You know the expression I’ve used … ? What do you have to lose. Okay? What do you have to lose?” Trump’s stunning claim that he’s taking hydroxychloroquine could trigger a cascade of negative effects - The Washington Post

After Doctor Don reiterated his recommendation, based on his deeply researched medical opinion that people had nothing to lose by taking the "miracle cure", another study was released that reached a different conclusion. Antimalarial drug touted by President Trump is linked to increased risk of death in coronavirus patients, study says 

For patients given this drug, there was a 37% increase risk of death and a 137 percent increased risk of a serious heart arrhythmias. The study was based on a review of 96,000 Covid-19 patient hospital records. The study was "unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19."  

This is a link to the study released yesterday: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis - The Lancet

I suspect that Doctor Don acquired all of his knowledge about hydroxychloroquine from the Fox "News" personality Laura Ingraham and Elon Musk.   

Laura is a somewhat less obnoxious Ann Coulter clone, though equally non-brilliant, who has an hour long, evening program on Fox "News". 

Lately, she has been touting the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19, making the usual uninformed and misleading claims. Hydroxychloroquine truther Laura Ingraham-Salon.com

Drug promoted by Trump as coronavirus ‘game changer’ increasingly linked to deaths 

She dismisses, of course, all of the studies that establish no benefit and the potential for harm, as does Doctor Don, M.D. & PhD in B.S.. 

Instead Doctor Laura, M.D & PhD in B.S., relies on a small study conducted by the French Dr. Didiet Raoult, which has been dismissed and roundly criticized by experts in the field. 

Her summaries of this study are typical for a Fox "News" personality, leaving out details that would undermine her claim. 

One scientist sarcastically referred to the study, which had only 26 patients, as follows: “My results always look amazing if I leave out the patients who died.” 

In Raoult's "study", 6 of the patients were "lost in follow up" and were not included in his findings. One had stopped taking the drug due to adverse side effects. Three patients had to be transferred to intensive care. 

The following linked article details other serious problems with the study that Ms. Ingraham had to know about when touting it on her Fake News program He Was a Science Star. Then He Promoted a Questionable Cure for Covid-19. - The New York Times ("Beyond its apparent errors and omissions, the study’s design — its small size, its flawed control, the unrandomized assignment of patients to the treatment and control groups — was widely viewed to render its results meaningless.")

More important than the numerous flaws in Raoult's small study which would by themselves render it unreliable, Ingraham had to know that another French Doctor, Jean-Michel Molina, who directs the infectious-disease departments at two public hospitals in Paris, was unable to duplicate Raoult's claimed results: 

"Within five days, one had died, and two others had been transferred out of his service to intensive care. In another patient, the treatment was suspended after the onset of cardiac issues, a known side effect of the drugs. Eight of the 10 surviving patients still tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the conclusion of the study period." (emphasis added) Molina observed no antiviral activity in his patients who received Donald's miracle drug hydroxychloroquine.  

Why Did Fox News's Laura Ingraham Relentlessly Push Hydroxychloroquine? | GQ

Trump Says Fox News Isn't the Same and He's 'Looking for a New Outlet' after Host Warns Against His Medical Advice Merely mentioning a fact or facts is viewed in TrumpWorld as being anti-Trump. Why? Facts and truth are Trump's enemies. 

What to Know About the Malaria Drug Trump Says He Is Using

‘This is insane!’ Many scientists lament Trump’s embrace of risky malaria drugs for coronavirus | Science | AAAS

Why Trump is at odds with his medical experts over Covid-19 drugs - STAT

Thoughts on the Gautret et al. paper about Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin treatment of COVID-19 infections – Science Integrity Digest (discusses problems with the Raoult "study")

Hydroxychloroquine-FDA appears to soften stance on drug after Trump says he takes it So is the FDA making a political decision on matters impacting public health or one grounded in science. The FDA basically jettisoned the following warning after Donald said he was taking the drug: FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems | FDA   

Trump continued making false and factually unsupported statements about this drug last Tuesday. He claimed, for example, there was only 1 study that questioned his medical opinion and that was done by an "enemy" who gave the drug to patients near death. Trump dismisses hydroxychloroquine study as “enemy statement”  The "enemy" statement was prepared by the following University of Virginia and VA Doctors:

Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19

There was another U.S. study finding no benefits: Hydroxychloroquine Fails to Help Coronavirus Patients: Study-Time; 

Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 | NEJM Other studies show no benefit.  Hydroxychloroquine: No Help, Clear Harm in COVID-19 RCT and Cohort Studies | tctmd.com (“Based on best available evidence, there are known harms and no available evidence of benefits.”)

Trump's hydroxychloroquine obsession makes no scientific sense - The Washington Post

COVID-19 Hydroxychloroquine Treatment Brings Prolonged QT Arrhythmia Issues | DAIC Doctor Don, M.D. and PhD in B.S., disagrees with the cardiologists, claiming that there is nothing to lose by taking hydroxychloroquine.  

And, Donald trumpeted the study from France, apparently referring to Raoult's "study" without mentioning of course the problems or the other study from France, both discussed above. 

Maybe Donald will want to swallow his hydro pill by swigging some camel urine. Iranian Islamic medicine ‘specialist’ claims camel urine cures coronavirus infections | Arab News

The bottom line is that there is no reliable scientific proof that Donald's miracle cure works. There is proof that some people will suffer serious side effects from taking hydroxychloroquine. 

Two large scale, scientifically designed studies are under way to test efficacy and safety. There is also an ongoing study that has enrolled first responders to assess whether the drug has preventive qualities.  

Personally, I am going to stick with my chocolate brownies as a preventive measure. It has not been conclusively proven through a scientifically designed trial that brownies are not a cure for Covid-19.  And, I eat them and do not have an infection. Case proved in TrumpWorld.  
  

++++++ 

Covid-19 Updates: 

Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show

Nearly 600 workers from North Carolina Tyson chicken processing plant test positive for COVID-19 - CBS News (5/21 article; 

Coronavirus hot spots erupt across the country; experts warn of second wave in South

Coronavirus spread by talking can remain in air, researchers find (for up to 14 minutes)

Coronavirus: Wearing a mask can reduce transmission by 75%, new study claims

China’s New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing Viruses will mutate and may "learn" how to become more deadly.  

Trump administration paying huge premium for mask-cleaning machines. Which don't do the job.

Churchgoer potentially exposed 180 others to COVID-19

CDC tracks cluster of coronavirus cases in rural Arkansas to church, raising alarm on religious gatherings

Study: COVID-19 now spreading fastest in small, rural counties

Texas reports single highest daily rate increase of infections (5/17/20 article)

Florida knew a COVID-19 pandemic was likely; state leaders didn't warn the public

Coronavirus testing is 'a mess' in the US, report says

Two-thirds of health care workers were still reporting PPE shortages in early May: Poll - The Washington Post

++++

Pompous Pompeo: 

Pompous Pompeo has the same problem as Donald. 

Both have trouble keeping their stories straight. Mike Pompeo offers another defense in his IG controversy — then immediately undercuts it 

Pompeo first claimed that the firing of the State Department IG could not have been in retaliation of an ongoing investigation of him since he did not know of any investigation. 

Pompous Pompeo then admitted he was aware of the investigation into at least one of his many potentially unlawful activities. Pompeo Declined Interview Request From Inspector General About Saudi Arms Sales - The New York Times  

New revelations of potentially unethical or unlawful conduct are starting to come to light. Pompeo's elite taxpayer-funded dinners raise new concerns

Pompeo Quietly Visits Conservative Donors and Political Figures on State Dept. Trips

Donald is going to start cleaning up the D.C. swamp soon. 

Trump has now fired 5 Inspector Generals since 4/3/20: Here are the 4 inspectors general ousted by the Trump administration - ABC News This list does not include the recently fired IG for the Department of Transportation who was investigating Mitch McConnell's wife Elaine Chao who is the Secretary for Transportation.  Trump Just Removed the IG Investigating Elaine Chao. Chao’s Husband, Mitch McConnell, Already Vetted the Replacement; US lawmakers slam Trump’s firing of watchdog investigating Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao | South China Morning Post

Trump's authoritarian streak is in full bloom. 

Between 2000 and 2020, only one IG has been fired by a President. Obama fired the IG for the Corporation for National Community Service. Trump Twists Record on Inspectors General - FactCheck.org, citing Removal of Inspectors General: Rules, Practice, and Considerations for Congress, a report prepared by the Congressional Research Service. 

Do not expect republican politicians to check him, no matter what he does.  

With the exception of Mitt Romney, no republican politician will challenge or even criticize Donald most egregious and outrageous comments and acts. They are completely subservient to him. 

++++

Disgusting Don's Daily Outrages: 

Throughly Despicable Don makes deplorable and vicious comments almost on a daily basis.  

Donald repeated-again-his baseless claim that Joe Scarborough murdered his intern last Wednesday. Mika Brzezinski Blasts Trump for Again Accusing Husband Joe Scarborough of Murder, Calls Him a ‘Sick Person!’

This is the latest unfounded murder accusation tweeted by the President of the United States on 5/20/20: 

5/20/20 Tweet

The prior tweet was on 5/12/20:  

Trump’s vicious claim that Joe Scarborough might have murdered an aide - The Washington Post Donald is a practicing Christian in TrumpWorld. 

Trump has repeated this knowingly false and fact free accusation many times in the past. Donald Trump, Joe Scarborough and the 'unsolved mystery' that isn't - The Washington Post; Trump promotes conspiracy theory accusing MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough of murder - POLITICO; Trump baselessly claims Joe Scarborough was involved in a Florida murder - Vox 

Why is Donald doing this? 

First, he is an overwhelmingly repulsive human, so these kind of comments are natural for him, as normal as breathing.  

Second, Donald is also a well known trafficker in baseless conspiracy theories, starting with the birther conspiracy that gave him prominence among republicans who are naturally inclined to believe them. 

Third, making factually supported statements that contradict Donald's stories and reality creations, which  are broadcast to a wide audience, will send Donald into a rage and a vicious response. He will not tolerate being challenged with the truth.  

Donald has zero positive personality attributes. No one in American public life comes close to  his level of repulsive personality characteristics.
  
And, he will receive over 60 million votes next November to serve another 4 years

Most republicans view him to be a role model for their children. 

72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children'

I have thought about preparing a course curriculum for those republican  children, covering such matters as Trump University, the Trump Foundation, a sample of about a thousand tweets and other statements disparaging others, and starting off each class with mandatory daily viewing of the Access Hollywood tape. Full tape with lewd Donald Trump remarks (Access Hollywood) - YouTube

+++

Trump's preferred construction firm lands $1.3 billion border wall contract, the biggest so far - The Washington Post  

Alaska Rep. Ben Carpenter (R) says Hitler not a white supremacist after comparing coronavirus measures to Nazi rule - The Washington Post

As Tara Reade’s Expert Witness Credentials Are Questioned, So Are Verdicts - The New York Times; 

Tara Reade: A complicated life and conflicting accounts muddle efforts to understand allegation against Joe Biden; Lawyer drops Biden accuser Tara Reade as resumé questions lead to review of past expert testimony (Reade claimed to have graduated from Antioch University in Seattle and to have been a visiting professor at that school. An Antioch University spokesman stated that she attended the university but did not graduate and was never a professor. Instead, she provided several hours of "administrative work". If she did not graduate from college, I am wondering how she was able to gain admission to a law school.) 

Trump calls Dana Nessel the ‘Wacky Do Nothing Attorney General of Michigan’ — here’s how she is responding - MarketWatch Donald will not tolerate criticism and will react more negatively when the criticism comes from a woman. There is a term that describes this behavior by the way: 12 Ways to Spot a Misogynist | Psychology Today; 

61 things Donald Trump has said about women (just as of 10/16/18)

‘Horseface,’ ‘Lowlife,’ ‘Fat, Ugly’: How the President Demeans Women - The New York Times; Donald Trump Has Always Degraded Women | Time

The GOP is not a conservative party. 

+++++++++

All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted. 

1. Small Ball:

A. Restarted SCHK-Bought 5 at $21.77:

Quote: SCHK | Schwab 1000 Index ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: Schwab 1000 Index® ETF | Schwab Funds

Closing Price 5/22/20: SCHK $28.97 +$0.10 +0.35% 

Last Discussed: Item # 3.F. Eliminated SCHK-Sold 10 at $30.56 (12/7/2019 Post)

Expense Ratio: .05%

Top 10 Holdings as of 5/15/20:

B. Restarted WTBA-Bought 10 at $15.8; 5 AT $14.95 :

Quote: West Bancorp Inc. (WTBA) 

Closing Price 5/22/20: WTBA $16.66 -$0.03 -0.18% 

WTBA is a bank holding company that owns West Bank that has "eight offices in the Des Moines, Iowa metropolitan area, one office in Coralville, Iowa, and four offices in Minnesota in the cities of Rochester, Owatonna, Mankato and St. Cloud."

WTBA SEC Filings

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Sold 100 WTBA at $23.12-Used Commission Free Trade (4/29/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,146.24)-Bought 100 WTBA at $11.67 (6/29/13 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 5/5/20 (shares owned as of) 

Current Position: 15 shares

Average Cost: $15.52

Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.15%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): West Bancorporation, Inc. Announces Net Income for the First Quarter of 2020, Declares Quarterly Dividend 

"first quarter 2020 net income was $8.1 million, or $0.49 per diluted common share, compared to first quarter 2019 net income of $6.9 million, or $0.42 per diluted common share."

As noted in the press release, WTBA normally raises its dividend effective for the second quarter. The Board decided to refrain from doing so due to the uncertainties created by the pandemic. 

For the first quarter, this numbers are good compared to other small regional banks. 

5 Year Financial Data:

C. Added to SCM - Bought 5 at $6.79: 

Quote: Stellus Capital Investment Corp (SCM)

Closing Price 5/22: SCM $7.45 +$0.25 +3.47% 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. (5/9/2020 Post) I have nothing to add to that recent discussion. 

D. Started CLOU-Bought 10 at $16.25:

Quote: Global X Cloud Computing ETF Overview

Closing Price 5/22: CLOU $19.35 +$0.32 +1.68% 

This fund invests in "companies positioned to benefit from the increased adoption of cloud computing technology, including companies whose principal business is in offering computing Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), managed server storage space and data center real estate investment trusts, and/or cloud and edge computing infrastructure and hardware."  (emphasis added)

Some major cloud computing companies have significant business operations that do not fall into category, including Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle. Those stocks are not owned by CLOU or another one called the WisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF (WCLD) 

I have owned in the past one cloud computing ETF that includes those companies. First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) 

WCLD and CLOU spiraled down in price during the March decline. 

This 10 share position is what I call a placeholder. 

In the event of another major decline, I will include it a "wave small ball buying program". 

Chart CLOU:

Sponsor's Website: Cloud Computing ETF

Expense Ratio: .68%

Top 10 Holdings as of 5/15/20:

E. Added to GNL-Bought 1 at $13.19; 1 at $12.61:

Quote: Global Net Lease (GNL)

Closing Price 5/22: GNL $13.92 +$0.06 +0.43% 

Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Management: External

Website: Global Net Lease

SEC Filings

SEC Form 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 

Property Type Diversification | GNL

2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 9 and ends at page 31)("As of December 31, 2019, we owned 278 properties consisting of 31.6 million rentable square feet, which were 99.6% leased with a weighted-average remaining lease term of 8.3 years. Based on the percentage of annualized rental income on a straight-line basis as of December 31, 2019, 63.2% of our properties are located in the U.S., Puerto Rico and Canada and 37% are located in Europe.") The properties are subject to net leases. 

Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): Global Net Lease Reports First Quarter 2020 Results

"Portfolio is allocated 48% office, 47% industrial/distribution and 5% retail at the end of the quarter compared to 53% office, 39% industrial/distribution and 8% retail based on annualized straight-line rent as of March 31, 2019. 

Collected 98% of April cash rents as of April 30, 2020

Portfolio 99.6% leased with an 9.0 year weighted average remaining lease term, up from 8.1 years in prior year quarter" 

SEC Filed First Quarter Investor Presentation: 

Other Recent News: Global Net Lease Completes European Refinancing With €70 Million French Loan; Signs Term Sheet For $88 Million Whirlpool Portfolio Financing (5/18/20)

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.E. Sold 10 GNL at $21.51 (2/19/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Pared GNL-Sold Highest Cost 50 Shares at $20.05 (12/11/19 Post)

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87, 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6; 5 at $14; 10 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at $$; 1 at 10.1; 4 at $11.48 and 2 at $10.8  (4/4/20 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share or $1.6 per share, cut from an annual rate of $2.13 per share. Global Net Lease Announces Dividend Change The reason given was "limited visibility on the long-term impact of the COVID-19 virus." 

The dividend needed to be cut before the pandemic since it was not being covered by cash flow, as I have noted in the past and point out once again when discussing the last earnings report below. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the company the cover to do what needed to be done. I do not view it as a negative but a correction of a clearly excessive penny rate.

Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/9/2020 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): 

Current Position: 118+ shares 

Average Cost Per Share: $16.15

Dividend Yield at Cost = 9.91%

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, except for dividend reinvestments, must reduce my average cost per share. 

F. Added 1 RDSB at $34.08; 1 at $28.9; 1 at $27.61; 1 at $24.88 and 1 at $24.18:  

Quote: RDS.B | Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADR B Overview 

Closing Price 5/22: RDS-B $30.34 -$0.14 -0.46% 

Those adds were in my Schwab Account and were made prior to Royal Dutch slashing its dividend. First quarter 2020 interim dividend | Shell Global The new penny rate is $.32 per share, down from $.94. RDS.A | Royal Dutch Shell Plc-Dividend Channel This is Shell's first dividend cut since WWII. Shell cuts dividend for first time since WWII-Seeking Alpha

Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink - MarketWatch

In January 2020, Shell's CEO made the following statement:  "I think lowering the dividend is not a good lever to pull if you want to be a world-class investment case, so we’re not going to do that. And it's also not needed, to be perfectly honest."

Dividend: $.32 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes  

After the dividend slash, I decided to eliminate my smaller positions in my Vanguard and Fidelity accounts. 

Last Earnings Report (3/31/20):

CCS = Current Cost of Supplies

Recent News Article: Shell to significantly reduce costs to ensure capital position amid coronavirus - MarketWatch  

I eliminated my RDSB positions in my Fidelity and Vanguard taxable accounts after the company announced its dividend slash. 

G. Eliminated RDSB in Fidelity and Vanguard Taxable Accounts: Sold 5 RDSB at $32.09 (Fidelity) and 9 at $32 (Vanguard)

Profit Snapshots: +$54.1

H. Small Ball Pare-Sold 10 THQ at $17.55 (4/15) and 10 at $17.9 (4/16) -highest cost lots:

Quote: Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund Overview-a leveraged CEF

Closing Price 5/22: THQ $17.96  +$0.11 +0.62% 

Sponsor's website: Fund Basics

Profit Snapshot: +$23.34

Item # 1.I Restarted THQ-Bought 10 at $16.7 and 5 at $16,58 (3/7/20 Post); Item # 3.E. Added 5 THQ at $16.25, 5 at $14.3; 5 at $14.07 and 5 at $11.9 (3/28/20 Post) I sold the 10 shares bought at $16.7; the 5 shares bought at $16.58 and the 5 shares bought at $16.25.

New Average Cost Per Share = $13.44

Data Date of 4/15/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $19.19
Closing Market Price: $17.6
Discount: -8.29%

Data Date of 4/16/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $19.55
Closing Market Price: $18.02
Discount: -7.83%

Sourced: THQ-CEF Connect

Distributions: Monthly at $.1125 (ROC Supported)

Yield at $13.44 = 10.04%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/19/20

I. Bought 10 MNR at $11.4: 

Quote: Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corp. Cl A (MNR) 

MNR is classified as an industrial REIT. As of 3/31/20, it owned 116 properties with total square footage of 23.0 million that was 99.4% occupied. 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 at page 10

Closing Price 5/22: MNR $12.36  +$0.02 +0.16% 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually)

Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20  (owned lot as of) 

Dividend yield at $11.4 = 6%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20) SEC Filling (list of properties starts at page 17)

Note the higher share count. MNR has an ongoing ATM program for both its common and preferred stocks. 

I own 80 shares of the preferred stock and last discussed purchase here: Item # 4.B. Added 10 MNRPRC at $20.46; 10 at $15.31; 10 at $18 (5/9/20 Post) 

Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corp. 6.125% Cumulative Preferred Series C Stock (closed at $24.61 last Friday, ex dividend on 5/14/20)

The last public offering was made in October 2018, consisting of 8M shares plus the greenshoe priced to the public at $15 per share. Prospectus 

Securities Portfolio: This REIT owns other REIT marketable securities, which has turned into a major negative for MNR shareholders IMO. As of 3/31/20, the portfolio was valued at $99M with an unrealized loss at that time of $136.1M. MNR received dividend income paid by those securities of 3.6M during the quarter. One of the larger holdings is UMH Properties Inc. (UMH) As of 3/31/20, MNR owned 1.3M UMH shares and 1M shares of UMH's 8% cumulative preferred stock. UMH Properties Inc. 8% Cumulative Series B Preferred Stock Overview I have not been able to find a reference listing other owned REIT equity securities.  

Major Exposure to FedEx: MNR has major exposure to FedEx and its subsidiaries "consisting of 60 separate stand-alone leases covering 10.4 million square feet as of March 31, 2020. FedEx accounts for about 45% of MNR's total leased space.   

J. Bought and Sold 100 MNR in a Dividend Harvest: 

I did a dividend clip with a 100 share MRR lot bought in another account, buying on 5/12 and selling on 5/21. 

100 MNR shares +9.97 (+$17 dividend clip)

K. Added to PBCT-Bought 10 at $11.27; 10 at $10.87: 

Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)

Closing Price 5/22: PBCT $10.86 -$0.31 -2.78% 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

PBCT Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates

PBCT SEC Filings

PBCT 2019 Annual Report

Chart: 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Added to PBCT - Bought 5 at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72  ($/25/20 Post)

I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Last Round Trips: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)-Item # 3.A. Bought 100 PBCT at $15.65(11/28/18 Post); Item # 4 Sold 100 PBCT at $14.61 (9/21/13 Post)-Item # 1 Bought 100 PBCT at $11.47 (6/14/12 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 per share ($.71 annually)

Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes

Last Ex Dividend: 4/30/20

Current Position: 81+ shares

Average Cost Per Share: $13.26 

Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.35%

Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share.

On 5/5/20, UBS cut its price target to $9 from $9.5. I do not have access to that report. The PT is reasonable provided the recession continues throughout this year or the recovery is slow, taking more than a year after the recessions ends to recover to pre-pandemic GDP growth.   

A recent SA article discussing PBCT is not yet behind SA's paywall. People's United Financial: Provision Expense Likely To Be Heightened For Another Quarter-Seeking Alpha

PBCT is a dividend aristocrat. Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Part 14: People's United Financial Sure Dividend It is a component of the NOBL ETF: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF 

L.  Eliminated CHN-Sold 10 at $20.63:

Quote: China Fund Inc. (CHN)

Closing Price 5/22: CHN $19.84 -$0.79 -3.83% 

Profit Snapshot: $15.31

Item # 4. C. Restarted CHN-Bought 10 at $19.1(4/11/20 Post)

Sponsor's Website: The China Fund Inc.

I thought that Hong Kong and mainland China listed stocks would decline based on this announcement: China's proposed national security law could end Hong Kong as we know it - CNN

I will reconsider starting a position after the dust settles.

I had started a position in CHIQ, see below, which was sold for the same reason.

M. Eliminated CHIQ-Sold 5 at $18.03:

Quote: CHIQ | Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF

Closing Price 5/22: CHIQ 17.65 -$0.43 -2.38% 

Profit Snapshot:  $8.65

Last Round-Trip Discussion: Item # 4 Sold 10 CHIQ at $18.18 (11/16/19 Post)-Item # 5 Bought 10 CHIQ at $14.87 (6/15/19 Post); Item # 2.D. Eliminated CHIQ-Sold 71+ shares at $16.04 (3/13/19)(profit snapshot = $94.59)

Sponsor's website: MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF
 
2. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:

A. Added to PWFPRT- Bought 50 at C$11.1 (C$1 Commission):

Quote: PWF-PT.TO

Closing Price 5/22: PWF-PT.TO C$13.94  -C$0.17 -1.20% 

This brings me up to 100 shares.

Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 PWFPRT at C$16.94 (11/20/19 Post)

Security:
Par Value: C$25
Classification: Reset Equity Preferred
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and Quarterly
Last Coupon Reset: January 2019
Resets: Every 5 years
Coupon: 2.37% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond
Last Reset Coupon = 4.215%
Effective through but not Including 1/31/2024
Optional Redemption: Issuer's Option on reset dates at par + accrued dividends

Current Yield at C$11.1 = 9.49%

Power Financial has been acquired by Power Corporation. Power Corporation and Power Financial Announce Completion of Reorganization and the Determination of the Final Offer Price for the Pre-Emptive Right

Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/8/20

B. Added 50 FTSPRM at C$12.4 (C$1 Commission):

Quote: FTS-PM.TO

Closing Price 5/22: FTS-PM.TO C$14.80 -C$0.23 -1.53% 

Issuer:  USD priced Fortis Inc (FTS)

Website: Home

The issuer is an electric and gas utility based in Canada that also has utility operations in the U.S. The U.S. operations consist of UNS Energy and Central Hudson. 

The company also owns the ITC U.S. transmission network. 

Par Value: C$25

Dividends: Quarterly and Cumulative

Coupon: Resets Every 5 years at a 2.48% spread to the five year Canadian government bond

Last Reset: Effective starting on 12/1/19 to and excluding 12/1/2024

Fortis has an option to redeem at par value on the reset dates. 

New Penny rate per share: C$.2445625 (C$.97825 annually)

Current Position: 150 shares 

Average Cost Per Share: $C15.41

Current Yield at C$15.41 = 6.35%

Prior Purchases (still owned): Item # 3.A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$16.28 (3/14/20 Post); Item # 2. A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$17.55(11/23/19 Post)

Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20 (received on 150 shares)

C. Added 10 EBGEF at $13.1:

Quote: EBGEF 

Closing Price 5/22: EBGEF US$14.45 +$0.15  +1.06% 

Security: Cumulative, reset equity preferred stock issued by Enbridge Inc priced in U.S.D.s and traded on the U.S. Grey Market. 

Link to all ENB Preferred Shares and Hybrid Securities - Enbridge Inc. (prospectuses are linked)

I am in a deep percentage loss hole on this one. 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 EBGEF at $20.1 (5/26/19 Post) 


Par Value: US$25 

Coupon: 2.82% spread to the 5 year U.S. treasury note, resets every five years As with other Canadian resets, a fixed coupon was initially paid.  

The quarterly fixed coupon penny rate was $.275 (.044 x.  $25 par value =  $1.1 annually 4 quarters =  $.275)

When the coupon reset for five years effective for the 2019 second quarter, the new quarterly penny rate was $.33596 or a 22.17% increase

Current Coupon: Quarterly at $.33596 per share (or $1.34 rounded annually) The coupon is about 5.36% at that penny rate. The U.S. five year note would have been close to 2.56% on the reset date. 2019 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates The weakness in the price is mostly attributable IMO to a belief that the coupon will reset in March 2024 at much lower rate. 

Next Reset: 3/1/24

Last Ex Dividend:  5/14/20

Current Yield at $13.1 = 10.23%

3. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:  

A. Bought 2 AON 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/14/24: 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Aon PLC

Website: Risk - Reinsurance - Retirement - Health - Data & Analytics | Aon

Aon Reports First Quarter 2020 Results ("Net income from continuing operations attributable to Aon shareholders was $773 million, or $3.29 per share, compared to $659 million, or $2.70 per share, in the prior year period.")

Bought at a Total Cost of 95.563 (includes $1 per bond commission)

YTM at Total Cost = 4.671%

Third Party Price as of 5/22/19: 107.399

Credit Ratings: 

FITCH is at BBB+ with a negative outlook as of 4/1/20. Aon plc Credit Ratings- Fitch Ratings; Fitch Maintains Negative Watch on Aon's 'BBB+' IDR Following Annual Review

B. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24: 

I now own 4 bonds. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Select Income REIT was acquired by Office Properties Income Trust (OPI). This bond is now an OPI obligation, see page F-27, OPI 2019 Annual Report

Credit Ratings:

Bought at a Total Cost of 94.149
YTM at Total Cost = 5.866%

4. Short Term Corporate Bond Ladder Basket Strategy: 

A. Bought 2 Wellpoint 4.35% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/15/20: 

FINRA Page: Bond  Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Welltower changed its name to Anthem Inc. (ANTM) in 2014.

ANTM | Anthem Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

2019 ANTM Annual Report (see debt list at page 122)

Last Bond Offering (9/19): Prospectus (3 maturities totalling $2.5B in principal amount)

Bought at a Total Cost of 99.7 (includes $1 per bond commission)
YTM at Total Cost = 5.143%

B. Bought 2 AON 2.8% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21: 

I now own 4 bonds. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Total Cost at99.85 (with $2  brokerage commission)
YTM at Total Cost = 2.959%

Yield of 1 year Treasury bill as of date of purchase: .14%

C. Bought 2 Exelon 2.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/15/21: 

I now own 4 bonds. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Total Cost at 99.539 (with $2  commission) 

YTM at Total Cost = 2.913%

Current Yield at Total Cost = 2.46%

Issuer: Exelon Corp. (EXC)
EXC | Exelon Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
About Exelon - Corporate Information

2019 EXC Annual Report

Last Bond Offering (3/2020): Prospectus

Credit Ratings: 

5. Exchange Traded Bonds: 

A. Pared ARGD-Sold 25 at $25.4-Part of Highest Cost Lot: 

Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD)(formerly traded under the symbol AGIIL)

Closing Price 5/22: ARGD $25.49 0.00 0.00% 

Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of  EXCHANGE TRADED BONDS

Note in the following snapshot I averaged down during the March meltdown buying 25 shares in several purchases. The lowest purchase price was $10.25. By selling 25 shares of the 30 purchased at a total cost of $25.22 (7/18/20), I reduced my average cost per share, raised my yield, and reduced by risk, while keeping my capital gain tax obligation to the lowest possible amount. 

Position Before Pare: 125 Shares

Average Cost Before Pare: $23.28

Average Cost After Pare: $22.76

Profit Snapshot: +$1.74

Item # 1.A. Bought 30 ARGD at $25.33-Used Commission Free Trade  (7/25/18 Post)

Last Discussed: Item # 2.A (4/25/20 Post)

The last quarterly ex interest date was on 2/27/20. I do not have the next one, which will probably be next week. 

Yield at $22.76 Average Cost: 7.14%

Security Description: Final Prospectus Supplement
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on the $25 par value
Interest: Quarterly 
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/27/20   
Optional Redemption: At $25 plus accrued interest at issuer's option 
Guarantor: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (ARGO) 
Senior Unsecured Debt 

The issuer can redeem now at par value. Given the low interest rate environment, and the issuer's credit rating, this option will restrain price appreciation above the $25 par value. The security will generally reach its maximum price point shortly before its ex interest date. 

ARGO Analyst Estimates

ARGO SEC Filings

Maturity: Unless redeemed early at issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/42;

Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer

Bond Rating: According to Quantumonline, the bond has a BBB- rating from S & P.

Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment with no accrued interest paid to the bond seller)

Realized ARGD-AGIIL Gains to Date: $599.94

Previous Round-Trip Discussions: 

Item # 3 Sold 50 AGRD at $25.87 (9/25/19 Post)

Previous Transactions when the symbol was AGIIL): Item # 4 Sold 100 AGIIL (9/25/17 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.09)-South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.98 (bought back 50 shares sold at $26.69 in May 2016) and Item # 5. Bought 50 AGIIL at $24.6 in IB Account-Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 1/22/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

During that 2013 price plunge, I did buy some shares. Item # 6 Bought 50 AGIIL at $20.2 (December 2013 Post) I sold that lot at $24.21: Item # 2 Sold 50 AGIIL at $24.21-Roth IRA (6/28/14 Post)(profit snapshot=$186.48 plus two quarterly interest payments totaling $40.62; total return 22.33% in about 6 months)

Another 50 share lot was bought in October 2013: Item # 3 Bought: 50 AGIIL at $21.11 (10/13/2013 Post). I sold the lot bought in October 2013 at $24.48: Item # 2 Sold: 50 AGIIL at $24.48 (6/7/14 Post)(profit snapshot=$152.58; total return of $193.2 or 18.17% in about 7 months).

During the March to early April decline, I also bought shares in 3 other accounts, either 5 or 10 shares. 

This is a fairly typical pattern for exchange traded bonds, particularly during meltdown periods which occur periodically. I am in one my accounts, and decide to buy while keeping my overall total position within my pre-existing limits for that security, one of many risk mitigation techniques.   

ARGD Total Position: 125 shares

I will generally max out at 150 shares. I owned 150 before selling the 25 shares discussed in this section.  

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.