BMY, BOTZ, BOX, CL, ETSY, EXEL, FPF, ILPT, IRM, NYCB, PHG, PYPL, PYS, SBRA, WIW, XOM

Economy: 

As expected, the FED increased the federal funds range 50 basis points to .75% to 1%. Fed raises rates by half a percentage point — the biggest hike in two decades — to fight inflation That increase will have no material impact on inflation. 

Excerpt from Federal Reserve Board statement

Dow rallies 900 points as investors bet the Fed can slow inflation without causing a recession  

Private payrolls increased by 247,000 in April, well below the estimate, ADP says The consensus was at 390K. The March number was revised from 455K to 479K. ADP® National Employment Report™ - April 2022 The ADP employment report is based on information supplied by 460K ADP clients who employ nearly 26M workers. 

U.S. Home Prices Surged in March - CoreLogic® Up 20.9% Y-O-Y which looks like another bubble that may pop with higher mortgage rates. Tennessee had the third largest increase at 26.7%. 

+++

Markets: Paul Tudor Jones says he can't think of a worse financial environment for stocks or bonds right now

EU proposes gradual ban on Russian oil in sanctions against Moscow All economic relations with Russia need to be terminated as soon as possible. 

++++

Earnings Reports - Owned Stocks: 

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A, BRK/B)(GAAP E.P.S. for BRK/B at $2.47, down from $5.09 in the 2021 first quarter; GAAP negatively impacted by unrealized value changes in Berkshire's equity portfolio; Operating earnings at $7.040B, down slightly from $7.018B in the 2021 first quarter; Bought Back $3.2B of its stock in the first quarter); Discussed at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) earnings Q1 2022 and Crucial Takeaways From Berkshire Hathaway’s 1Q Earnings.

Chemours (CC) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $1.43; Non-GAAP net income of $239M or $1.46 per with the consensus at $.922 per Fidelity; revenues = $1.8B, up 23% Y-O-Y; Guides 2022 Free Cash Flow to >$550M, up from the previous estimate of >$500M and adjusted E.P.S. to $5.04 to $5.53) This report sent the stock up 17.55% on 5/2/22.

Chevron (CVX) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $6.3B or $3.22; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.36 with the consensus at $3.273 per Fidelity; free cash flow = $6.1B; operating revenues at $52.314B, up from $31.076B in the 2021 1st quarter) Warren Buffett significantly increases Chevron bet, now in Berkshire's top 4 positions

Coterra Energy (CTRA) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.75; Non-GAAP net income of $818M or $1.01 per share with the consensus at $.83; Free cash flow = $961M; "Total equivalent production of 630 MBoepd, at the high-end of guidance"; "On May 2, 2022, Coterra's Board of Directors (the "Board") approved a total quarterly dividend equal to $0.60 per share ($0.15 base, $0.45 variable)"; "Executed on $1.25 billion share repurchase program, repurchased 7.6 million shares at a total cost of $184 million, all of which settled during first-quarter 2022. The average repurchase price during the quarter was $24.16 per share.") 

Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $32.7M or $.82 per share; Consensus at $.832 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.19%, up from 3.26% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency Ratio = 51.8%; Coverage Ratio = 221.39%; NPL Ratio = .39%; Charge off ratio = Net Recovery of $1.6M; ROA = 1.13%; ROE = 11.53%; ROTE = 14.44%; Dividend Payout Ratio = 29.27%; Loan to Deposit Ratio = 88.7%; Total Capital Ratio = 13.48%Tangible Book Value per share = $22.18) 

The First Bancorp (FNLC) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $9.7M or $.88, up 7 cents from the 2021 first quarter; no analyst estimates; NIM = 3.24%, up from 2.99% in the 2021 first quarter; efficiency ratio = 45.42%; NPL ratio = .3%; NPA Ratio = .2%; ROE = 15.96%; ROTE = 18.25%; Dividend Payout Ratio = 35.96%; Tangible Book Value per share = $18.39)

MarineMax (HZO) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $2.37 with the consensus at $1.785 per Fidelity; revenue + 17% to $610.1M; "Based on current business conditions, retail trends and other factors, the Company is raising its fiscal year 2022 guidance for earnings per diluted share to a range of $7.90 to $8.30, which is increased from its previously provided guidance of $7.60 to $8.00 per diluted share. This compares to earnings per diluted share of $6.78 in fiscal 2021")

Merck (MRK) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. continuing operations = $1.70; Non-GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations = $2.14 with the consensus at $1.833; revenues from continuing operations up 50% to $15.9B and up 19% excluding revenues from the new Covid drug treatment Lagevrio (Molnupiravir), profits shared equally with Ridgeback; Keytruda revenues at $4.809B, up 23%; Gardasil  up 59% to $1.46B; Animal Health business revenues up 4% to $1.482B; guides 2022 non-GAAP E.P.S. to $7.24 to $7.36)

Mondelez International (MDLZ) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $.61; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.84, up 13.9% on constant currency basis, consensus at $.743 per Fidelity; net revenues up 7.3% to 7.764B with organic sales up 8.6%; free cash flow = $1B; "For 2022, the company now expects 4+ percent Organic Net Revenue growth, which reflects the strength of its first quarter and higher pricing related to increased input costs. The company also now expects mid-to-high single digit Adjusted EPS growth on a constant currency basis due to the current estimates of the loss of earnings from the war in Ukraine and material commodity cost increases due primarily to increases in energy costs. The company’s Free Cash Flow outlook remains at $3+ billion. The company estimates currency translation would decrease 2022 net revenue growth by approximately 3 percent3 with a negative $0.17 impact to Adjusted EPS") 

Northrim BanCorp (NRIM) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $7.2M or $1.2 per share with the consensus at $.98; "Dividends per share increased to $0.41 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $0.38 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $0.37 per share in the first quarter of 2021, reflecting management's and the Board of Directors’ plan to continue increasing returns to the Company's shareholders. Share repurchases also continued with 133,105 shares, or 2% of shares outstanding, repurchased in the first quarter"; NIM = 3.2%, down from 3.92% in the 2021 first quarter; efficiency ratio = 70.02%; NPL Ratio = .70%;  Coverage ratio = 130%; Charge Off ratio = Net Benefit of .2%; ROA = 1.12%; ROE = 12.36%; Tangible book value per share = $35.67)

OP Bancorp (OPBK) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $8.2M or $.53 per share; Consensus at $.515 per Fidelity; NIM =  4.12%, up from 3.8% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency Ratio = 44.93%; Charge off ratio = zero; NPL ratio = .2%; "Noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits of 51%, up from 45% "; ROA = 1.85%; ROE = 19.54%)

Qualcomm (QCOM) SEC Filed Press Release (This report is for the second fiscal quarter ending 3/27/22. GAAP E.P.S. = $2.57; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.21 with the consensus at $2.912 per Fidelity; revenues up 41% to $11.164B compared to the 2021 first quarter; guides the 3rd fiscal quarter 2022 non-GAAP E.P.S. to $2.75 to $2.95; repurchased 6M shares during the quarter) 

Regions Financial (RF) SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental (Net income of $524M or $.55 per share with the consensus at $.475 per Fidelity; Adjusted NIM = 3.43%, up from 3.4%; efficiency ratio = 57.9%; Charge off ratio = .21%; ROTE = 21%)

SLR Investment (SLRC) SEC Filed Press Release (on 4/1/22, SLRC completed its acquisition of SUNS which had paid monthly dividends. SLR Investment Corp. Completes Merger with SLR Senior Investment Corporation. Subsequent to the acquisition, SLRC went from a quarterly dividend of $.41 per share to a monthly dividend of $0.136667 which is no change in the total amount; Excluding expenses related to this merger, SLRC reported NII per share of $.35 with the consensus at $.37, note that NII does not cover the dividend; net asset value per share = $19.56; "As of March 31, 2022, on a fair value basis 98.3%, of the Company’s portfolio was performing")

Southside Bancshares (SBSI) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $25M or $.77 per share, consensus at $.696 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.22%, up from 3.20% in the 2021 first quarter; efficiency ratio = 48.15%; NPA Ratio = .16%; ROA = 1.4%; ROE = 11.42%; ROTE = 15.2%; "Noninterest expense was $31.2 million for both of the three-month periods ended March 31, 2022 and 2021. On a linked quarter basis, noninterest expense decreased $0.1 million, or 0.4%, compared to the three months ended December 31, 2021"; Tangible book value per share = $17.86)

TrustCo Bancorp New York (TRST) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $17.1M or $.89 per share with the consensus at $.69 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.66%, down from 2.78% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency Ratio = 50.55%; NPL ratio = .43%; NPA ratio = .31%; Coverage ratio = 237.8%; Charge off ratio: Net recovery;  ROA = 1.12%; ROE = 11.6%; Dividend payout ratio = 39.36%)

West Bancorporation (WTBA) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $13.2M or $.78 per share with the consensus at $.70 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.85%, down from 3.17% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency ratio = 40.14%; NPA Ratio = .25%; ROA = 1.51%; ROE = 20.96%) 

+++

Farm vehicles removed from Ukraine by Russians who find they've been remotely disabled  Looting by Russian troops has been widespread in Ukraine. Russians loot Ukrainian museums: soldiers steal 2,300-year-old gold crown of feared Scythian nomads | Daily Mail Online; Pillaging Russian troops send Ukrainian loot back home | News | The Times; ‘They took our clothes’: Ukrainians returning to looted homes | Ukraine | The Guardian; War in Ukraine: Russian soldiers looting 'everything that they can get their hands on' • FRANCE 24 - YouTube

Putin's disinformation campaign aims to win Russian hearts and minds with an "alternative version of events" - CBS News Part of Putin's disinformation campaign is to shut down reliable information sources that contradict his false narratives. Don the Authoritarian, a Putin dictator want-to-be, could not shut down the press outlets that reported accurate information that contradicted his reality creations, but he successfully convinced his followers and others to ignore responsible journalists by categorizing them as "enemies of the people" and their accurate reporting as Fake News. Trump is still the unchallengeable leader of America's anti-democracy party.   

J.D. Vance who is running for the vacant Ohio senate seat, sure sounds like a Trump endorsed candidate:

Vance: “We are going to break up the big tech companies, ladies and gentlemen. We have to do it. You cannot have a real country if a bunch of corrupt scumbags who take their marching orders from the Communist Chinese tell us what we’re allowed to say and how we’re allowed to say it.” Opinion | The Decline of Ohio and the Rise of J.D. Vance - The New York Times Vance won the Ohio republican primary yesterday. Trump took the credit. 

Trump Doubles Down on Support of GOP Candidate Accused of Groping More Than Half a Dozen Women | Vanity Fair

New text messages reveal Fox's Hannity advising Trump White House and seeking direction 

+++

1. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries: 

I do not pay a commission for U.S. treasury trades in my Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard accounts. The yield numbers for similar maturities will vary depending on when the bond was purchased.  

I am about 1 month behind in discussing my bond trades, but almost caught up on the stock transactions. 

A. Bought 2 Blackrock TCP BDC 3.9% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/23/24 at a Total Cost of 99.71: 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked) 

Issuer: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.  (TCPC) 

I own the common shares. 

Credit Rating: Baa3 by Moody's

YTM at TC = 4.028%

Current Yield at TC = 3.91%

B. Bought 1 Treasury 2% Coupon Maturing on 4/30/24 at 98.93: 

YTM at 2.535%

Current Yield at 2.02%

C. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 3/31/24 at 99.5: 

YTM at TC = 2.51%

Current Yield at TC = 2.26%

D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 7/31/24 at 98.88:  

YTM at TC = 2.624%

Current Yield at TC = 2.15%

E. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/23 at 99.73: 

YTM at TC =

Current Yield at TC = 2.26%, rounded up. 

F. Bought 1 Treasury 1.65% Coupon Maturing on 10/31/23 at 99.02: 

I now own 2 bonds. 

YTM at TC = 2.266%

Current Yield at TC =  1.67%, rounded up.  

G. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 11/30/23 at 99.656: 

YTM at TC = 2.338%

Current Yield at TC = 2.13%, rounded down

H. Early Redemption at Par Value: Montgomery County, TN. 3% GO: 

There was no gain or loss on this one. 

I. One Month Early Redemption of Cintas 3.25% SU Maturing on 6/1/22: 

Purchase discussion at Item # 4.A. Bought 1 Cintas 3.25% SU at a Total Cost of 98.778 - YTM at TC = 3.617% (12/2/18 Post) 

I am likely to buy another Cintas senior unsecured bond but have not yet been tempted by the current prices. The most likely one is the 3.7% SU bond maturing on 4/1/2027, rated at A3/A-. Bond Detail

2. Eliminated BMY in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 15+ at $77.56: 

Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.

BMY SEC Filings

BMY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Pharmaceutical Research & Development Pipeline

Products and Medicines

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Important Recent News Item: U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves Camzyos™ (mavacamten) for the Treatment of Adults With Symptomatic New York Heart Association Class II-III Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) to Improve Functional Capacity and Symptoms (4/28/22)

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Added to BMY in Fidelity Account: Bought 1 at $60.34; 1 at $59.98; 1 at $59.5  (10/29/21 Post)

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.G. Bought 1 BMY at $54.76 (12/22/21 Post)

I discussed the 2021 4th quarter earnings report in this post: Item 3.L. Sold 1 BMY in Vanguard Taxable Account at $69.3 (5/31/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.23) 

Profit Snapshot  = $279.11 (4/21/22 sale only)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.54 per share, last raised from $.49 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. 

Dividend History - Bristol Myers Squibb

Last Ex Dividend: 3/31/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22):  SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. = $.59

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.96

Consensus at  $1.91 per Fidelity

Revenues: $11.648B up 5% Y-O-Y

Product Revenues: 

Revlimid will continue to generate lower revenues due to generic competition. 

Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 2.F. Pared BMY in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 1.203 at $68.8 (9/10/21 Post); Item # 3.G. Sold 1 BMY at $67.1-Schwab Taxable (6/12/21 Post); Item # 3.B. Pared BMY in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 2 at $65.63 (5/14/21 Post )

I still own shares in other accounts. 

3. Eliminated IRM in Schwab Taxable- Sold 19+ at $57.73:

Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)

SEC Filings

Iron Mountain - Investor Relations

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

I still own my lowest cost shares held in my Fidelity taxable account (16 shares) and in 2 Roth IRA accounts.  

Profit Snapshot: +$631.54

Most Recent Buy Discussions: Item # 2.E. Started IRM in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $26.8; 5 at $25.8; 5 at $25.25; 5 at $24.9 (12/5/20 Post); Item # 1.B. Added 3 IRM at $22.99; 2 at $22.31 (6/20/20 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to IRM in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 1 at $26.88; 2 at $26.2; 1 at $25.7; 1 at $25.52; 1 at $24.96 (12/5/20 Post)(substantive discussion); Item # 2.A. Added 1 IRM at $26.46; 1 at $26.07; 1 at $25; 2 at $23.95; 1 at $23.3; 1 at $23.76; 1 at $24.33; 1 at  $22.61; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.6 and 1 at $21.79 (5/2/20 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.6185 per share

Iron Mountain - Stock - Dividend History and Tax Treatment

Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.14

Adjusted GAAP E.P.S. = $.38: 

FFO per shares as Defined by NAREIT  = $.43

Normalized FFO per share = $.66

AFFO per share  = $.91

GAAP Net Income to FFO:

FFO to AFFO: 

I do not care for all of those numbers. I believe that investors focus more on AFFO per share than the other ones. 

2022 Guidance: 

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.H. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 1 at $47.58 (10/10/21 Post)(profit snapshot  = $21.6); Item #1.A. Sold 3 IRM in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 3 at $49.12 (10/1/21 Post); Item # 2.K. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $44.18; Item #2.L. Pared IRM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 1 at $46.19; and Item # 2.M. Pared IRM in Schwab Taxable-Sold 1 at $46.93  (6/19/21 Post); Item # 1.K. Sold 5 IRM at $37.69 (4/30/21 Post); Item #1.B. Sold 2 IRM at $35.63; 5 at $36.8 (2/27/21 Post); Item # 1.L. Sold 5 IRM in Schwab Account at $36.42  and Item #1.M. Sold 2.731 in Fidelity Account at $36.86 (4/1/21 Post); Item #1.B. Sold 2 IRM at $35.63; 5 at $36.8 in Fidelity Taxable (2/27/21 Post); Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Sold 10 IRM at $33.91-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

IRM Realized Gains to date: $1,546.85 (currently at #6 in my REIT Basket) 

When small ball trading is successful, the largest gain per share will be my elimination. Prior to this 19+ share sale, my total IRM realized gain was at $915.31 that included multiple transactions as noted above.  

4. Small Ball: 

A. Pared XOM-Sold 2 at $89.66: 

Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

XOM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

XOM SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

Investment Category: Bond Substitute with a small flavor of dividend growth. 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.G. Pared XOM -Sold 1.437 at $81.03; 1.78 at $85.48 (3/24/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post.  

Profit Snapshot:  $92.39 (4/20/22 sale only)

Average cost per share this account before pare: $38.16

Average cost per share this account after pare =  $37.47 (15 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 4/21/22 after pare 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share ($3.52 annually)

Dividend information | ExxonMobil

Yield at $37.47: 9.37%

Next Ex Dividend: 5/12/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. at $1.28

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $2.07 with consensus at $2.122 per Fidelity

Non-GAAP Net income of $8.833B

Non-GAAP excludes a $3.4B charge related to XOM discontinuing its participation in its Russian operation at Sakhalin-1. ExxonMobil to discontinue operations at Sakhalin-1, make no new investments in Russia

Oil equivalent production per day at 3.7M barrels, "down 4% from the fourth quarter of 2021 due to weather-related unscheduled downtime, planned maintenance, lower entitlements associated with higher prices, and divestments. Excluding entitlement effects, government mandates, and divestments, oil-equivalent production was down 2%."  

B. Eliminated PYS- Sold 45 at $21.05-$21.15: 

Quote: Merrill Lynch Depositor Inc. PPLUS Cl A 6.3% TRUCs Series RRD-1 for R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co  (PYS) 

Profit Snapshots: +$52.68 

Last Discussed:  Item # 2.A. Bought 10 PYS at $20.5 and Item # 2.B. (3/20/21 Post);  

Investment Category: Trust Certificate, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds

Realized Gains in Trust Certificates: $32,497.71

Trust Certificate Prospectus: Trust Certificate Prospectus

Underlying Bond Prospectus: Prospectus

The underlying bond owned by this Grantor Trust is a 6.625% SU bond issued by R.R. Donnelley which was recently acquired by a private company. FINRA Bond Detail That bond is currently rated at Caa1/B-, which is one reason why I elected to eliminate this position. 

The new private owner may cease filing SEC reports which is another reason. That could also result in the Trustee distributing the bonds to the Trust Certificate owners. If that happened, I would own less than 1 bond in multiple accounts which could not be sold.  

Interest payments are made semi-annually. 

I waited to sell this security until after it went ex interest for its semi-annual distribution. 

Prior Round-Trip Snapshots: +$400.30

Total PYS Realized Gains = $453.98

C. Eliminated CL in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $81.51: 

Quote: Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)

Website: Colgate-Palmolive – Global Household & Consumer Products

Brands

CL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CL SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

2021 Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot = +$22.98

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 2 CL at $75.6; 1 at $74.57 -Schwab Taxable Account (11/5/21 Post) I still own those shares which constitute my entire current position.

Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share, last raised from $.45 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment. 

CL Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 4/20/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release I sold the 5 share lot before this report. 

The Stock Jocks had a justifiable IMO negative reaction to this report.

GAAP E.P.S. = $.66, down 18%

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.74, down 8% but in line with the consensus estimate. 

Organic revenue: up 4%

The problem is that CL did not raise prices high enough to cover increases in input costs.  

CEO statement in Press Release: “While our growth continued on the top line, our profitability was impacted by significant increases in raw material and logistics costs worldwide, and we expect the difficult cost environment to continue for the next several quarters. We remain sharply focused on our revenue growth management, including additional pricing, and funding-the-growth and other productivity initiatives. . . As we look around the world, there is still much uncertainty stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine and volatility in consumer demand and currencies."

Full Year Guidance: Non-GAAP earnings expected to decline in mid-single digit range. 

Current Position: 3 shares with an AC per share at $75.26. 

Purchase Restriction: 1 or 2 shares lots with each subsequent purchase being at the lowest price in the chain and the next purchase required to be below $70. I view the stock as overvalued at its current price but potentially rewarding on a total return basis long term. 

D. Added to ETSY- Bought $50 at $107.7: $50 at $97.8: 

Quote: ETSY

ETSY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ETSY SEC Filings

ETSY 2021 SEC Filed Annual Report

52 week high at $307.75 

1 Year Chart: Major Bear Trend with no bottom discernible

Average Cost per share. = $124.42 (4+ shares)

Both ETSY and PYPL, discussed below, are in falling knife mode. I am averaging down in $50 lots, with each subsequent purchase being at the lowest price in the chain. Both stocks were winners in the pandemic era but have retraced their robust gains from that period. 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.H. Multiple Small Ball Purchases of ETSY (3/3/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post. The stock rose $20.78 in response but has subsequently given back that gain and a lot more. 

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. $1.06

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.11 with consensus at $.794. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): This report was released yesterday. The Stock Jocks are reacting negatively to it, and deservedly so. 

E.P.S. at $.60 

"Net income was $86.1 million, down 40.1% year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of $0.60. The decline in net income was primarily due to increased employee compensation-related expenses, as total employee headcount increased approximately 71% year-over-year, which includes increased headcount from the acquisitions of Depop and Elo7."

Compensation expenses that devour earnings per share can not be ignored as if they do not exist.  

Consensus at $.59, a decrease of 40.7% from the 2021 first quarter. 

For the second quarter, guided revenue to $540M - $590M, a range significantly below the $627M consensus prior to this press release.  

I will keep averaging down in $50 lots, even though I have a strong negative reaction to this report and guidance. However, the next buy will be below $90 and then below $85, and so on.  

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (3/31/22): 5 stars with a FV of $221 and a wide moat. 

S & P (2/25/22): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of  $170

Argus (3/3/22): Hold 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B. Sold 1 ETSY at $213.2 (9/24/21 Post)

E. Added to PYPL - Bought $50 at $94.48; $50 at $86.63: 

Quote: PayPal Holdings Inc.

52 Week High at $310.16. 

PYPL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

PYPL SEC Filings

Prior Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.K. Multiple $50 Fractional Shares purchases of PYPL (3/3/22 Post)

Average cost per share:  $104.13 (4+ shares)

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release This report was released after my purchases. 

GAAP E.P.S.  = $.43

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.88 in line with consensus, down from $1.22 in the 2021 first quarter.  

GAAP and Non-GAAP E.P.S. includes a 3 cent negative impact from suspending business in Russia. There was a 6 cent benefit in the 2021 first quarter from release of credit loss reserves. 

GAAP to Non-GAAP: The largest adjustment to GAAP is $479M of share based compensation. 

Net Revenues = $6.483B, up from $6.033B in the 2021 first quarter (+7%)

Revenue growth has been slowing. 

5.2B payment transactions, up 18%

New active accounts at 2.4M and guides to 10M for 2022 (Average per year new active accounts for the 3 years prior to the pandemic was 35M annually and at 49M in 2021)  There was a surge in new accounts during the pandemic. 

Year End Active Accounts: 429M

Free cash flow at $1.051B, down 32%. 

Repurchased 11M shares of common stock during the quarter. 

Cash at $15.1B as of 3/31/22 with debt  at $9.2B. 

Guides 2022 GAAP E.P.S. to $2.19-$2.34 and Non-GAAP E.P.S. to $3.81 to $3.93 with revenue growth of 11% to 13%. PYPL had previously guided revenue growth at 15-17%. (2021 Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $4.6 and prior 2022 guidance was at $4.6 to $4.7)

Overall, I had a negative reaction to this report. 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers) 

Morningstar (4/28/22): 4 stars with a FV of $139, reduced from $145, and a narrow moat. 

Argus (4/28/22): Buy, cut PT to $130 from $150. Reduced 2023 non-GAAP E.P.S. forecast to $4.77 from $5.34. 

S & P (5/1/22): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $115, lifted rating from 3 stars based on the stock price discounting "a slew of bad news) 

Credit Suisse (4/28/22): Reduced PT to $100 from $150, kept outperform rating.   

I do not have access to these reports released after this earnings report:   

Citigroup cuts PT to $120 from $140

KBW cuts PT to $108 from $160 

Stephens cuts PT to $95 from $135

My general "feeling" is that the stock price with struggle to maintain upside momentum and will remain under pressure over the next year but will overcome its current headwinds longer term. I will continue to average down in $50 increments. 

F. Eliminated EXEL- Sold 7 at $22.45: 

Quote: Exelixis Inc.

EXEL SEC Filings

EXEL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Pipeline - Exelixis

Our Medicines - Exelixis The "flagship" molecule is cabozantinib which is the origin of two commercial products called CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ used to treat medullary thyroid cancer, renal cell carcinoma, and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Another EXEL discovered molecule is Cobimetinib, which has been approved in multiple countries including the U.S. and the EU, "to treat specific forms of BRAF mutation-positive unresectable or metastatic melanoma, in combination with vemurafenib". This drug is marketed in a collaboration agreement with Roche's Genentech (see pages 26-27, Annual Report)  

Profit Snapshot: $38.84 

Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Bought 5 EXEL at $17.36; 2 at $15.78 (12/22/21 Post) 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket  

Last Financial Report (Q/E 12/31/21):  SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.29

Non-GAAP E.P.S. =  $.31

2021 Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.01

Non-GAAP earnings are adjusted to exclude stock based compensation. 

"Net product revenues generated by the cabozantinib franchise in the U.S. were $302.7 million during the fourth quarter of 2021, with net product revenues of $295.1 million from CABOMETYX and $7.6 million from COMETRIQ® (cabozantinib). For the year ended December 31, 2021, net product revenues generated by the cabozantinib franchise in the U.S. were $1,077.3 million, with net product revenues of $1,054.1 million from CABOMETYX and $23.2 million from COMETRIQ. In 2021, global cabozantinib franchise net product revenues generated by Exelixis and its partners exceeded $1.5 billion. Based upon cabozantinib-related net product revenues generated by Exelixis’ collaboration partners during the quarter and year ended December 31, 2021, Exelixis earned $29.3 million and $105.1 million, respectively, in royalty revenues."

Based on the current stock price and market capitalization, and given the blockbuster status of the cabozantinib franchise, the Stock Jocks are expressing a lack of enthusiasm for EXEL's clinical stage pipeline drugs IMO. The early stage compounds are either in pre-clinical or Phase 1 trials, so way off in time from FDA approval. 

G. Added to FPF - Bought 5 at $20.44; 5 at $20.15: 

Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview

The price topped out at over $26 in August 2021. The rise in interest rates has caused a decline in net asset value per share that is made worse by using borrowed money to buy those declining in value securities. 

FPF SEC Filings

FPF - CEF Connect

Sponsor's website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF)

FPF- CEF Connect 

Last Annual Report: SEC Filed, period ending 10/31/21 

Last SEC Filed Report on Holdings (period ending 1/31/22)

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

Leveraged: Yes, substantial at 32% as of 4/29/22

Weighted Average Effective Duration: 4.02 years as of 3/31/22

Weighted Average % of Par = 100.58% as of 3/31/22. That number would be below 100% now. 

Last Discussed: Item # 1 Bought 5 FPF at $21.26; 85 at $21.29 (3/10/22 Post) 

Average Cost per share: $21.23 (111+ shares)

Dividends: Monthly at $.1275 ($1.53 annually)

Yield at $21.23 = 7.21%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/2/22

Dividend Reinvestment: Currently, yes 

Purchase restriction: Subsequent purchases limited to 5 share lots with each lot bought at the lowest price in the chain. 

Maximum position: 200 shares 

H. Added to PHG- Bought 1 at $26.91; 1 at $26.2: 

Quotes: 

USDs: Koninklijke Philips N.V. ADR

Euros: Koninklijke Philips N.V. (Euronext Amsterdam)

ADR ratio: 1 for 1 

Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

SEC Filings (foreign company SEC forms)

Royal Philips - 20-F 2021 (Annual Report) 

2019-2021 Financial Data: 

Philips - United States | Philips (U.S. products) The only product that I use is its Sonicare electric toothbrush.  

Investors had a negative reaction to PHG's first quarter earnings report. 

Closing Price 4/25/22: $26.91 -$3.43 -11.31% 

Purchase Discussions: Item # 2.L. Added 1 PHG at $31.12; 1 at $30.41; 1 at $29.55 (3/10/22 Post); Item # 4.J. Bought 1 PHG at $33.03; 1 at $31.7 (2/24/22 Post)(only prior substantive discussion)  

Average cost per share = $29.87 (7 shares)

Dividend: Annual, next payment is $.9641 per share.

Yield at $29.87 with annual at $.9641: 3.23%

Next Ex Dividend: 5/12/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22):  Royal Philips - 6-K

Adjusted income per share from continuing operations: €.15, down from €.28 in the 2021 first quarter. 

Purchase Restriction: 1 or 2 share lots with each subsequent purchase having to be at the lowest price in the chain. PHG has a number of hopefully short term problems that are negatively impacting the stock price. One of those problems involves product litigation and remediation costs relating to several respironics devices. Medical Device Recall Notification, Sleep and Respiratory Care devices | Philips Other issues include the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. 

I. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $12.1; 2 at $11.67-Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Quote:  Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc. - Nursing Home REIT

Website: Home | Sabra

Sabra SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

SEC Filed Financial Report for the 2021 4th Q (normalized FFO = $.39; normalized AFFO = $.38) 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added 1 SBRA at $14.64; 1 at $14.1- Fidelity Taxable (11/18/21 Post) I discussed the 2021 third quarter report in that post. 

New Average cost per share: $14.2 (63+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 4/29/22

Dividend: Quarterly at $.30, reduced from $.45 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.  

SBRA Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $14.2  = 8.45%

Recent News: Fitch Affirms Sabra’s Credit Rating and Outlook (BBB- credit rating with a stable outlook)

Last Financial Report (Q/E 3/31/22): This report was released yesterday after the close. SEC Filed Press Release 

Normalized FFO and AFFO per share = $.38

Cash Rental Income = $100.357M

J. Added to BOTZ - Bought 2 at $24.88; 2 at $24: 

Quote:  Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF Overview 

Sponsor's Website: Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

Expense Ratio = .69%

Average Cost per share = $25.72 (7 shares)

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.J. Sold 5 BOTZ at $39.02 (10/22/21 Post)

Top 10 Holdings as of 5/3/22:

K. Added 5 to ILPT at $17.30; 5 at $17; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $16.25; 5 at $15.63 : 

Quote: Industrial Logistics Properties Trust

ILPT SEC Filings

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Management: External

New Average Cost per share = $18.76  (60 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share

Yield at New AC = 7.04%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/22/22 

I discussed the last earnings report in my last post: Item # 6.I. Added to ILPT - Bought 5 at $19.69; 5 at $17.65 (4/28/22 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental

I suspect that the downdraft is primarily due (1) to higher interest rates increasing the additional debt acquired to finance the recent Monmouth REIT acquisition and the assumption of that REIT's existing debt and (2) selling some properties to a joint venture to finance that acquisition in part. 

See, generally: 

L. Added to NYCB (Vanguard Taxable)- Bought 10 at $9.61: 

Quote: New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYCB)

NYCB SEC Filings

NYCB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 5/3/22, the 2022 consensus E.P.S. estimate was at $1.35 and at $1.38 for 2023. 

Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Average cost per share this account = $10.44

Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually)

Yield at AC = 6.51%

Next Ex Dividend: 5/6/22

I discussed this stock in my last post and have already started to average down. Item # 3 Bought 100 NYCB in Vanguard Taxable Account at $10.52 (4/24/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release

M. Eliminated BOX- Sold 3 at $30.62: 

Quote: Box Inc. Cl A 

BOX SEC Filings

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/31/22 

3 Years of Financial Data: GAAP losses  

Page 54, Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot: +$22.77

Discussed at  Item # 3.G. Bought 1 Box at $23.38; 2 at $22.9  (6/4/21 Post) 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Last Loss Report (4th F/Q ending 1/31/22): SEC Filing 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.