Economy:
The ISM Manufacturing index for March rose to 64.7%, the highest reading since 1983. Surging U.S. manufacturers grow faster in March as key ISM index hits 38-year high - MarketWatch; March 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® The new orders component rose to 68 from 64.8 in the prior month.
Manufacturing boom brings more signs that inflation is building rapidly
Pending home sales fell over 10% in February; Pending Home Sales-National Association of Realtors This is in part pandemic related.
CDC study shows single dose of Pfizer or Moderna Covid vaccines was 80% effective Two weeks after the second dose, those vaccines were 90% effective. CDC: Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines found 90 percent effective in 'real-world' study
Home Price Growth Hit a Nearly 15-Year High In January. Here's What's Next. | Barron's The article is referring to the Case-Shiller home price index. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - S&P Dow Jones Indices; Report for January 2021, released on 3/20/21.pdf (11.2% annual gain through January 2021). One cure for high home prices is high prices as shown by what happened during the last decade. Abnormally low mortgage rates has distorted price, just like the improvident granting of mortgage loans to unqualified buyers did in the period leading up to 2008.
Federal Reserve under fire as home prices soar
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Masters of Disaster will always be with us. A hedge-fund liquidation has wiped billions from Chinese and US stocks-Markets Insider
The crisis that culminated in the 2008 Near Depression was caused in large part by Masters of Disasters plying their trade of incinerating money while making millions for themselves.
Goldman, Morgan Stanley avoided losses after fund meltdown hit Nomura
Inflation comeback will push 10-year yields as high as 3%: Ed Yardeni
The Value Stock Rotation Isn’t Over—Not by a Long Shot | Barron's
Banks Should See Big Profits from the Recovery. Spend Wisely. | Barron's I have discussed here the reasons why bank profits will surge this year which are outlined by the author of this article: (1) the banks over reserved in 2020 for losses and recapturing some of those will flow directly into income; (2) the stimulus packages will send the economy into overdrive, producing more loan demand, fewer credit losses and more low cost deposits with the FED stuck on ZIRP; and (3) the net interest margin will expand some as deposit costs remain at or near zero and interest rates rise on newly purchased investments securities and loans. The author does not mention two potential negatives: (1) the Democrats may succeed this year in raising the corporate tax rate which would reduce net income; (2) last year's surge in profits from mortgage banking, including the profits from selling originated mortgages when rates were falling, will be lower in 2021.
5 Consumer Stocks to Buy—and 1 to Skip | Barron's Of the 5 buy recommendations, I own only Clorox (CLX), which I discussed in my last post. I lack any enthusiasm for CLX at its current price.
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A six part series on HBO makes the cash that Ron Watkins, who along with his father Jim Watkins, run the conspiracy and hate filled website 8chan, is "Q". I would just call them Pure Trumpsters, twit and twat. Just a couple of A Holes. Is Ron Watkins Q? | The New Republic; QAnon HBO docuseries asks who is Q? And may have the answer - Los Angeles Times Who is Q? HBO documentary identifies QAnon leader as Ron Watkins - al.com; 8chan owner Jim Watkins: From helicopter repairman to leader of the Internet's 'darkest reaches' - The Washington Post Ron Watkins has denied that he is Q.
Matt Gaetz (R-FL) Is Said to Be Investigated Over Possible Sexual Relationship With a Girl, 17; republished by MSN from Matt Gaetz Under Investigation Over Possible Sex Trafficking - The New York Times; DOJ Investigating If Matt Gaetz Misused Campaign Money to Fund Travel; Republicans Have Been Waiting for a Matt Gaetz Scandal to Break Gaetz denies the allegation. Rep. Matt Gaetz denies relationship with 17-year-old and claims extortion attempt I view him to be an obvious P.O.S.
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Interest payments received in Fidelity Taxable account on 4/1/21:
Corporate Bonds = $203.75
Tennessee Municipal Bonds = $793.76
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1. Small Ball:
A. Added 10 WPC at $68.31-Vanguard Taxable Account:
So far, I have not sold any WPC shares. I own positions in 6 of my accounts.
Last Bond Offering (2/2021): Prospectus (€525M of .95% SU notes maturing in 2030)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.0428
The penny rate is nudged a bit higher every quarter.
Dividend Information - W. P. Carey
Yield at $68.31 = 6.11% (assumes continuation of current penny rate)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/21 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (12/21/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Rent Collection: 99% for the 4th quarter
Occupancy: 98.5%
Weighted Average Lease Term: 10.6 years
Reconciliation of Net Income to AFFO:
B. Added 10 GDO at $17.03:
Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)- a leveraged bond CEF
Closing Price 4/1/21: GDO $17.80 +$0.19 +1.08%
Sponsor's Website: WA Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc.
The fund will liquidate on or before 12/2/2024. I plan on selling out before that happens.
Just buying back previously sold shares. Item # 1.H. Pared GDO in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $18 (12/25/21 Post)
WA Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc- Annual Report for the F/Y ending 10/31/20.
Data Date of 3/9/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $18.38
Closing Market Price: $17.02
Discount: -7.4%
Sourced: GDO-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Other Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 GDO at $16.72 in Schwab Taxable Account (11/7/2020 Post); Item # 2.A. Added 35 GDO at $16.78; 5 at $15.6: 5 at $14.34; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.4 (4/11/20 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains snapshots of prior trades)
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $15.42 (66+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.212 annually)
Yield at AC = 7.86%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/23/21 after purchase
Credit Quality as of 12/31/20:
Effective duration as of 12/31/20: 5.99 years
I have turned off dividend reinvestment, though I will try to time open market purchases using small ball trading techniques.
C. Pared TPVG-Sold 4 at $14.85:
Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC
Closing Price 4/1/21: TPVG $14.74 +$0.29 +2.01%
Website: TriplePoint Venture Growth
2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 23 and ends at page 50)
5 Year Selected Financial Information (p. 53):
Company Assessment of Asset Quality (p. 61):
BDCs will have investments go bad, which goes with the territory. The issues are the magnitude of the losses and the BDCs ability to generate capital gains through equity investments in private companies. Since going public, TPVG has done a good job so far in realizing capital gains from equity investments.
Management: External
This sell includes the last fractional share purchase with a dividend and part of my highest cost lot.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96 (4/11/2020 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $13.71 (3/9/21 sell only):
Remaining Share Lot Details this account:
New Average Cost Per Share this account = $7.66 (55+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 3/9/21 after pare |
Yield at New AC this account: 18.8% (regular dividend only)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20):
NII per share of $.39 with consensus at $.378 according to Fidelity;
"recorded $4.2 million from the realization of gains from the sale of CrowdStrike, Inc. shares, the sale of Medallia, Inc. shares and the acquisition of Freshly Inc. by Nestle USA"; "portfolio company View, Inc. announced plans to go public through a SPAC merger and subsequent to the fourth quarter, Hims, Inc. closed its SPAC merger and listed on the NYSE and GROOP Internet Platform, Inc. (d/b/a Talkspace) announced plans to go public through a SPAC merger";
"a 15.2% weighted average annualized portfolio yield on total debt investments for the quarter";
declared a first-quarter distribution of $0.36 per share, payable on March 31, 2021;
net asset value per share = $12.97, a decline from $13.28 as of 9/30/20 due to negative fair value adjustments
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.K. Pared-Sold 9 at $13.13-Lots Bought with Dividend (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.95); Item #1.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.41 (8/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $17.1; contains snapshots of prior round-trip trade profits, new AC this account at $5.32 with dividend yield at 27.07%); Item # 2.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.6 (8/15/20 Post)(profit snapshot $9.99); Item # 1.J. Eliminated TPVG in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 30 at $10.58 (8/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.3); Item # 2.A. Pared TPVG-Sold 14 shares at $15.61-Used Commission Free Trade (9/1/2019 Post)(profit = $46.33); Item # 2.A. Sold 74+ TPVG at $14.87 (7/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $246.43); Item # 4.C. Eliminated TPVG in Roth IRA Account (4/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $88.87); Item # 3.B.(4/14/19 Post)(profit = $71.76); Item 3.A. Sold 40 TPVG at $13.44-Schwab Account and Item #3B Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 Vanguard Roth IRA (3/13/19 Post)(profit snapshots of $4.17 and $4.49 ); Item 2.B. Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 (3/4/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $153.08); Item # 3 Sold 50 TPVG at $12.33 (1/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.48)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
TPVG Realized Gains to Date: $864.85
D. Sold 1 SBSI at $39.8:
Profit Snapshot = +$12.82 (includes subsequent fractional shares purchased with 2 dividend payments)
Average Cost After Pare: $26.16 (14+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday 3/9/21 after pare |
5 Year Financial Data:
E. Restarted D-Bought 4 at an AC of $71.64:
Quote: Dominion Energy Inc
Stock Information as of 4/1/21:
Website: Dominion EnergyInvestor Relations | Dominion Energy
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04 (8/8/20 Post); Item #1.D. Sold 13 D at $78.17 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $51.81)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.D. Added 1 D at $73.8, 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68 and 1 at $60.6 (4/18/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.63 per share ($2.52 annually), reduced from $.95 effective for the quarter. There were two primary causes for this dividend slash. First, Dominion sold a significant part of its assets: Dominion Energy Agrees to Sell Gas Transmission, Storage Assets to Berkshire Hathaway Energy-- Strategic Repositioning Toward 'Pure-Play'; Dominion Energy Closes on Sale of Majority of Gas Transmission & Storage Assets - Nov 2, 2020 Second, Dominion had to take a big hit on canceling a pipeline project due to long delays caused by environmental groups. Dominion Energy and Duke Energy Cancel the Atlantic Coast Pipeline - Jul 5, 2020
Dividends & Splits | Dominion Energy
Yield at AC = 3.52%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21 (owned as of )
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): Dominion Energy Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Earnings - Feb 12, 2021
GAAP E.P.S. = $.82
2021 Operating E.P.S. Guidance = $3.7 to $4
"The difference between GAAP and operating earnings for the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2020, was primarily attributable to a net loss from discontinued operations associated with the sale of the Gas Transmission & Storage segment and the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project and charges associated with the planned early retirement of electric generation facilities in Virginia." The charges were substantial and set out in the earnings release.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. I will not be reinvesting the dividend.
F. Started KIO-Bought 10 at $15.75:
Quote: KKR Income Opportunities Fund Overview
Closing Price 4/1/21: KIO $15.82 0.00 0.00%
Leveraged: yes, near 30%
Holding as of 1/31/21-SEC Filing
Annual Report for the period ending 10/31/20 (leverage costs discussed at pages 26-27)
Owns a lot of junk rated securities: Note that investment grade weighting is a 1% of the total.
As of 12/31/20 |
Data date of 3/10/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $16.5
Closing Market Price: $15.7
Discount: -4.85%
Sourced: KIO-CEF Connect
Dividend: Monthly at $.105 per share ($1.26 annually), reduced from $.125 effective for the November 2020 payment.
Yield at $15.75 = 8%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/11/21
Maximum Position : 20 shares given the risk/benefit analysis. Will probably liquidate at the first sign of the economy turning south.
G. Pared STAG in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 4 at $33:
Quote: STAG Industrial Inc. (STAG)
Stock Information as of 4/1/21:
Website: STAG Industrial
492 buildings with 92.2M square feet as of 12/31/20
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$32.49
3+ shares were purchased with monthly dividend payments and the remaining fractional share was sourced from a 50 share purchase made last March. I have taken almost all dividend payments in cash and have turned off dividend reinvestment based on valuation.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2. Bought 50 STAG at $20.9 (3/28/2020 Post)
New Average Cost this account = $17.56 (100+ shares)
Snapshot as of close on 3/10/21 |
Lot Details Remaining Shares:
Snapshot as of close on 3/11/21 |
Dividend: Monthly at $.1208 per share($1.4496 annually)
Yield at AC = 8.26%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/30/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"$0.49 of Core FFO per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 4.3% compared to fourth quarter 2019 Core FFO per diluted share of $0.47. Generated Core FFO of $75.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to $65.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2019, an increase of 15.4%. Achieved $1.89 of Core FFO per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2020, an increase of 2.7% compared to $1.84 of Core FFO per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2019."
"Cash Available for Distribution of $64.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 16.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 of $55.0 million. Produced Cash Available for Distribution of $243.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2020, an increase of 21.7% compared to the year ended December 31, 2019 of $200.4 million."
Total Portfolio Occupancy Rate at 96.9%
4th Quarter Acquisitions:
Some Sell Discussions:
Item # 7-Pared STAG Sold 42 at $25.2: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/16 | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $271.32); Item # 2. Pared STAG-Sold 54 Shares at $23.81: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/1/16- South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $318.54); Item # 2. Pared STAG -Sold 50 of 240 at $22.74: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
STAG Realized Gains to Date: +$826.98
Most of the realized gains occurred in 2016 when I sold down to a 50 share lot that had the lowest cost basis that I still own in this Schwab account.
2016 Round-TRIP STAG Transactions:
I also still own 50 shares in my IB taxable account and in 2 Roth IRAs. Item # 2. Added to STAG in IB Account-Bought 50 at $17.55-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha The tax cost basis is down to $16.05 due to ROC adjustments:
Snapshot as of Close on 3/31/21 |
STAG Industrial Acquires Three Warehouse Distribution Properties For $61 Million (3/3/21);
Stag Industrial Announces Redemption of 6.875% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (3/1/21)
H. Pared HOPE in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 22 at $15.52 and 14 at $15.96 -highest cost lots:
Quote: Hope Bancorp Inc.
HOPE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$44.82
Average Cost per share this account: $11.15 (51+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday 3/12/21 after last pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 per share), last raised from $.13 per share effective for the 2018 third quarter.
Dividend reinvestment has been turned off due to valuation and relatively poor earnings reports compared to my other regional bank holdings.
Yield at New AC this Account: 5.02%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/4/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release Overall, this was a poor report IMO.
I am far more likely to eliminate my position than to buy more shares at the current price.
I. Bought 10 MBT at $8.66; 5 at $8.35; 5 at $8.18:
Quote: Mobile TeleSystems PJSC ADR
Stock Information as of 4/1/21:
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
MBT E.P.S. Average Estimates : US$.88 in 2021 and US$.93 in 2022
MBT is "Russia’s largest mobile operator and a leading network-native provider of media and digital services".
Ordinary Shares: Price in Russian Rubles-MTSS.ME
1 ADR = 2 Ordinary Shares
MBT SEC Filings (for foreign issuer)
SEC Filed 2020 Annual Report (5 year financial summary at page 6)
2020 Earnings Per Diluted Share = RUB34.51
For the ADR = RUB 69.02
Assuming a RUB/USD of .013, the USD equivalent per ADR would be $.90.
I would describe the Russian Ruble as a very weak currency against the USD: RUB / USD Currency Chart. Russian Ruble to US Dollar Rates
The RUB/USD was at .036 in early May 2011 and is now near .013 or about a 64% depreciation in 10 years. The RUB is showing no intention yet of meaningfully gaining value against the USD.
Some support comes into play near .0125.
Normally I would not invest in a US priced ADR of a Russian stock for a variety of reasons, including the Ruble's weakness. IMO, the last competent ruler in Russia was Peter the Great, though he had many faults. Peter the Great: His Life and World (excellent biography); but see Why Peter the Great Tortured and Killed His Own Son-HISTORY I decided to give MBT a test drive as a Lotto notwithstanding my concerns.
Dividends: Variable and semi-annually for regular dividend
In 2020, MBT paid a special dividend.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Earnings Report
FY 2020 Net Profit + 13.2% to RUB61.4B
Full-Year Guidance of at least 4% revenue growth, at least 4% OIBDA growth, and Cash CAPEX of approximately RUB 100-110B.
OBIDA = Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization
J. Pared OGE-Sold 5 at $32.2-highest cost lot:
Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I. Started OGE-Bought 5 at $32.15; 1 at $31.63; 4 at $31.31; 5 at $30.7; 5 at $30.31 (1/30/21 Post)
Profit = $.24 (highest cost lot)
I will forego this profit snapshot.
New Average Cost: $30.79 per share (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4025 per share ($1.62 annually)
Yield at AC = 5.26%
Next Ex Dividend: 4/9/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"For the three months ended December 31, 2020, OGE Energy reported earnings of $0.27 per diluted share compared with $0.18 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in earnings is primarily due to the asset impairment incurred at Enable Midstream in 2019. The Company also had higher earnings at the utility due in part to lower operations and maintenance expense, offset by higher depreciation and amortization."
Charges related to OGE' interest in Enable Midstream Partners, L.P. hurt 2020 GAAP earnings:
K. Started FIW as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $77.5; 1 at $75.5.:
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Water ETF (FIW)
Expense Ratio: .55%
2020 Dividends: Quarterly and viewed as immaterial based on share cost.
Holdings as of 3/26/21:
I do not currently have a position in any of those stocks.
First Trust Water ETF (FIW)-Morningstar (rated 5 stars as of 3/26/21)
L. Pared IRM in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $36.42:
History this Account |
Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)
Closing Price 4/1/21: IRM $37.30 +$0.29 +0.78%
Website: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussion: Item #1.B. Sold 2 IRM at $35.63; 5 at $36.8 (2/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $54.15). I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
Recent Buy Discussions: Item # 2.E. Started IRM in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $26.8; 5 at $25.8; 5 at $25.25; 5 at $24.9 (12/5/20 Post); Item # 1.B. Added 3 IRM at $22.99; 2 at $22.31 (6/20/20 Post);Item # 2.F. Added to IRM in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 1 at $26.88; 2 at $26.2; 1 at $25.7; 1 at $25.52; 1 at $24.96 (12/5/20 Post)(substantive discussion); Item # 2.A. Added 1 IRM at $26.46; 1 at $26.07; 1 at $25; 2 at $23.95; 1 at $23.3; 1 at $23.76; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.61; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.6 and 1 at $21.79 (5/2/20 Post)
I turned off dividend reinvestment based on valuation.
I sold on the ex dividend date.
Profit Snapshot: +$48.12
New Average Cost Per Share this Account = $25.76 (20+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.618 per share ($2.472 annually)
Iron Mountain - Stock - Dividend History and Tax Treatment
Yield at New AC = 9.6%
M. Continuing Paring IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 2.731 Shares Bought with Dividends:
See Item 1. L above.
Profit Snapshot = $25.26 (3/24/21 sell only)
New AC this Account = $25.68 (31+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday 3/24/21 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 9.63%
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post); Item # 1.F. Sold 10 IRM at $32.1 (2/12/20 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Goal: Total return in excess of dividend payments
IRM Realized Gains to Date: $602.58 ($529.2 in prior trades)
N. Pared FFBC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 25 shares at $26.2 (highest cost lots):
Profit Snapshot: +$30.91
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $17.29 (80+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday 3/12/21 after pare |
The AC before this pare was at $19.12.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually), last raised from $.22 effective for the 2019 third quarter payment.
Yield at New AC : 5.32%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/26/21
Selected 5 Year Financial Data:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"For the three months ended December 31, 2020, the Company reported net income of $48.3 million, or $0.49 per diluted common share. These results compare to net income of $41.5 million, or $0.42 per diluted common share, for the third quarter of 2020 and $48.7 million, or $0.49 per diluted common share, for the fourth quarter of 2019. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2020, First Financial had earnings per diluted common share of $1.59 compared to $2.00 for the same period in 2019."
I am more likely to eliminate my position than to buy another share.
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Sold 84+ FFBC at $28.1 (3/24/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,129.21)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 4 Sold 52 FFBC at $21.25-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/18/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 1 Sold 50 FFBC at $20.11-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 3 Sold 50 FFBC at $19.25 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 5/4/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 4 Sold 57 FFBC at $17.03-Highest Cost Shares (12/23/13)
FFBC Realized Gains to Date: $1,972.38
O. Pared RCII-Sold 2 at $63.6 (highest cost lot):
Quote: Rent-A-Center Inc. (RCII)
Profit Snapshot: +$32.63
Average cost after pare = $44.2 (10 shares)
Snapshot Intraday 3/12/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share, increased from $.29 effective for the 2021 1st quarter payment (ex dividend in December 2020)
Yield at New AC = 2.81%
Next Ex Dividend: 4/5/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Diluted E.P.S. = $1.00, up from $.72 in the 2019 4th Q.
2021 Guidance: Non-GAAP E.P.S. $5.00 to $5.55
P. Bought 1 VT at $96.19 as a Placeholder in Vanguard Taxable Account:
Quote: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF Overview
Closing Price 4/1/21: VT $98.57 +$1.28 +1.32%
Sponsor's website: VT - Vanguard Total World Stock ETF
Expense Ratio: .08%
Holdings: 8,925 stocks as of 2/28/21
The Placeholder status simply means that I will monitor the ETF more closely for better entry points.
Last Discussions: Item 1.D. Bought 1 VT at $59.99 in my Fidelity Taxable Account (5/30/20 Post)(still own); Item # 3.D. Sold 5 VT at $79.01 (12/18/19 Post)-Item # 3.B. Bought 5 VT at $73.1 (4/7/19 Post)
I have deemphasized foreign stocks outside of Canada in my portfolio for over a decade now. My weighting in international stocks now is probably at less than .1% ex Canada.
I have started to increase the foreign stock allocation some based on the possibility that international stocks may outperform U.S. stocks in the coming decade or two.
VT is a foot in both worlds since U.S. stocks will have over a 50% weighting in that ETF.
Some Top Holdings as of 2/28/21:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I own a few shares of a publicly traded equity preferred stock issued by the privately owned Tectonic Financial.
ReplyDeleteI discussed 2 of my purchases in these posts:
Item # 1.N. Added to TECTP-Bought 10 at $8.24:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/01/arcc-bmy-eaf-fax-ivz-msgn-nmfc-oke.html
Item # 3.A. Bought 10 TECTP at $8.59
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/12/akba-aresf-bdge-brgpra-brkl-ccne-csco.html
Par Value: $10
Fixed to Floating Rate non-cumulative
Current: Fixed at 9%
Floating Rate: Starting in May 2024, if not redeemed on or after 5/15/24, 6.72% spread to the 3 month Libor rate (probably using alternate rate calculation since Libor will be gone by then)
Tectonic has to file earnings reports given this publicly traded preferred stock. I view it as important to review those reports to make an a credit risk assessment,
The 2020 Annual report was recently filed:
P. 85
2020 Diluted E.P.S. at $1.42, up from $.98 in 2019
P. 79
Total Capital Ratio (holding co) at 18.22%
P. 75:
NPA Ratio at .35%
Page 76
Charge Off Ratio = .05%
Page 62
Return on Tangible Equity = 37.78%
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766526/000118518521000432/tectonic20201231_10k.htm
Thanks for the info. I don't have much to say. I'm leaving the money I have in the market, in it, and where it is. The other half that's not yet in, is having trouble getting itself in. I don't have any sense of clarity here.
ReplyDeleteYou've picked up on materials and industrial type areas...
I'm surprised at how good manufacturing is. Logic would be that sales and earninngs will be good too. And therefore market will keep soaring. Particularly first in manufacturing support.
It sounds like inflation is coming back, and will start to be a factor.
Won't that be a disaster for gov't. Since it means rates will increase, and with debt....
My understanding is that in stocks is one of the best ways to keep up with inflation. Basically stock prices and divs will automatically keep up... while in savings accounts obviously won't.
The housing bubble will have effects. One is on Home Depot and Lowes. But it starts to look worrisome. I'm not sure what will get hit, but this is not normal...
----
Q was invented by someone(s). Media talks about Q as though there is a Q. And he/she needs to be guessed about. The person who invented Q can say truthfully, he/she is not the imaginary Q. Which makes media's questioning ineffective.
My personal bet is that Q was invented by a person close to Trump, like Bannon or Stone, with goals of ultimately claiming Trump is Q and out to save the world from pedophiles. As a pre-setup for when he's charged with his own behaviors. Yep, I can invent things too... and mine might just be truthful.
Add... like when Trump invented John Barron...
ReplyDeleteLand: John Barron was noteworthy in how effusively he praised Donald.
DeleteI personally believe that Ron Watkins, a nobody, is more likely Mr. Q than anyone who is well known.
The most interesting aspect of the QAnon movement are the vast number of republicans who believe in its core fact free conspiracy theories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon
I am still trying to comprehend how 80% of republicans viewed Donald as honest and almost as many as a good role model for their children.
+++
I am starting to nibble on stocks that I formally would not touch for one or more reasons, either a lack of GAAP profits and/or no dividend with no prospect of paying one in my lifetime.
I will be discussing two such purchases in my next post. One of those is Incyte which I will discuss in more detail than usual:
Incyte Corp
$83.01 +1.74 +2.14%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/incy?mod=over_search
The current stock market is too reminiscence of the late 1990s when I went to a zero stock allocation by 2000.
The Stock Jocks are swimming in an ocean of ebullience. Valuations are either high or sky high by any traditional valuation measure.
The main difference between then and now is that there are some pockets of reasonably valued stocks now; interest rates are so low and likely to remain so that fixed income alternatives provide no acceptable alternatives to equity for real rates of return; and there has been an unprecedented combined monetary and fiscal stimulus, far greater than what was done in 2008-2009. The last two factors are probably the main contributors to the multiple expansions occurring over the past several months.
Stocks will not do well when inflation has reached a problematic level and the consensus opinion is for future increases.
I would generally describe problematic inflation as moving through 3% and likely to continue higher. Problematic inflation was the root cause of the 18 year stock bear market starting in 1966 and continuing into late summer 1982.
I do not regard a 2% annual average inflation rate as a problem for stocks, more of a net benefit.
And stocks can move up even with a problematic inflation rate provided investors are convinced that a reversal in the trend up will continue, with inflation continuing to fall, which was the case in the 1980s, though other strong positive factors need to be in place.
The current S & P 500 P/E using trailing 12 month GAAP is at 45.45, with the estimated non-GAAP forward 12 months, which includes an extremely robust 2021 economy, at 23.12.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
...when I was a kid, I'd lay awake at night trying to figure out how the Holocaust happened and how the world can be that way.
DeleteOur current situation is a chance to study that, which I never expected to see in my lifetime.
Now that I see it up close and personal, I still have no idea. There's a brain mush factor that I don't understand.
It's not just that some people don't have good information. When you try to engage, they switch to name calling and finger in the ear behavior. When you point it out, they claim that's your behavior.
---
That's a helpful, well written summary of the situation.
I just received an email from Vanguard about ultrashort bond fund for storing rainy day cash.
I followed the links, and can not find a yield for it anywhere. I'm not curious enough to drop everything and call right now.
---
I've started looking at my long term plan. If inflation and ZIRP remains low, I think, instead of the traditional use of bonds and safe investments, I'll need to use dividend growth investing and live off the dividends.
So even if stock prices go down, I could retain adequate income to supplement SSI. That income should remain to large extent even if there's a recession of period of lower market. It requires paying attention to stocks enough to leave ones that are likely to cut divs or heading for trouble.
I'm starting to consider if this actually works over the long haul.
Ideally I will still work on capital growth for a while before then.
I've never heard of Incyte. A lot depends on how exciting their drugs are.
DeleteLand: Short term bond funds will pay more than a MM fund, currently at .01%. Marketwatch shows a 1.6% yield for the Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV), but that is based on historical monthly dividends which are going down as bonds mature. The average effective maturity for BSV is currently at 2.9 years. In March 2020 the fund paid a $.136+ monthly dividend and $.089 for April 2021. The penny rate will continue to work its way down until the bonds bought before 2020 mature and then the yield will level off near zero. At the current price of $82.23, the yield would be 1.3%, a highly likely negative real rate of return before taxes, provided the penny rate remained the same as the last one, which is not possible when buying new short term bonds with the proceeds of the higher yielding ones.
DeleteDividend growth stocks that are reasonably priced are a better option than BSV or similar funds; and hopefully there will be a valuation reset soon that will make them more desirable.
I have moved outside of my comfort area with small ball purchases of stocks like INCY. Another one that I recently bought was VRTX.
There have been a number of recent actions by the FDA that indicate that this agency has taken a tougher and more cautious stance on new drug approvals.
One of those actions just occurred and involved Olumiant (baricitinib) that INCY has licensed to Lilly:
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1358521/lillys-lly-olumiant-dermatitis-snda-review-gets-delayed?cid=CS-MKTWTCH-HL-analyst_blog|company_news_-_medical_sector-1358521&mod=mw_quote_news
The BDC TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) has called its 5.75% senior unsecured baby bond that would have matured on 7/15/22.
ReplyDeleteI had previously sold 10 at $25.25 and kept the lowest cost 30 shares.
Item # 3.A. Pared TPVY-Sold 10 at $25.25 (highest cost lot):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/bbca-cna-enb-fivg-flgb-iqlt-lgi-orkly.html
I received the proceeds from this redemption plus accrued interest yesterday.
The lowest cost TPVY lot was 5 shares held in my Schwab account that was bought at $21.95. In that account, I bought in its place another 10 shares of TECTP this morning, discussed above in a comment, at $9.42 which raised by AC in this account to $8.75. The current yield at that AC is 10.29% based on a $10 par value and a 9% coupon.
BDC's are moving up today. I was able to sell my highest cost FDUS lots bought with dividends at $16.44 earlier today. That reduced my AC for shares held in my Schwab account from $9.91 to $8.84. Many of those shares were bought when FDUS was selling at over $15 per share many full moons ago. Profitably selling shares bought with dividends is one aspect of my risk mitigation/capital preservation strategy.
Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (DCOM)
ReplyDelete$31.86 +$1.46 +4.80%
Volume 209,645
Avg. Volume 273,868
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/DCOM?mod=over_search
The pop today is somewhat suspect given the below average volume. The Raymond James analyst increased the DCOM PT target to $43 from $17. The analyst lifted the recommendation to strong buy from outperform.
As previously discussed here, I view Bridge Bancorp's acquisition of Dime Community Bancshares to be a positive. The $17 PT was too low IMO while the $43 is achievable within 12 to 24 months provided the consensus estimated E.P.S. of $2.68 this year and $3.18 next year proves close to the mark.
After completing that acquisition, Bridge changed its name to Dime Community Bancshares and changed its stock symbol from BDGE to DCOM. I own shares of DCOM in several of my accounts, but I have only bought BDGE shares. So all of my discussions are linked to the BDGE symbol.
I also own DCOMP, an equity preferred stock.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/dcomp?mod=over_search
++
While it is impossible to know what caused the late day selloff, I am willing to guess.
The ten year treasury fell in yield, closing down 6 basis points to 1.67%.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
If the economy is going to continue its robust growth after 2021, why would interest rates be going down?
The thought may be that the robust growth in 2021 is already reflected in prices, and 2022-2023 will be more like an annual average 2%, or worse, than this years 6.5%+ real GDP growth or a return to the prevailing pattern before the pandemic. A lot of the GDP growth since 2008, which resulted in an annual average of real GDP growth rate of 2.03% starting in 2009 through 2019, excluding the -2.44% in 2020, was substantially caused by clearly unsustainable deficit spending which has included boatloads of free money sent directly to U.S. citizens over the past year. If 2020 is including, the annual average real GDP growth rate falls to 1.86% and the annual average rate during Trump's term decline 1.27% compared to an annual average of 2.43% for Obama's last 4 years.
I thought the declines recently were because rates and inflation had climbed.
DeleteThe market got used to that, and is now worried that robust indicators will stop?
I have no better guess for yesterday's decline other than letting off some steam from the big up day before.
That day was confusing too. It started out with re-opening stocks winning. Then there was a quick turn around to favor tech growth again and all the related pandemic stocks. It was such an up day altogether that it wasn't that noticeable.
That model that the market now feels post-pandemic growth is built in and it's time to stop expanding P/Es, may be starting.
I don't have any concrete indicators. For instance CNBC tends to have 1-2 people starting to hesitate when hesitations starts while everyone else is still excited. But I'll keep an eye out.
I'm seeing some sense of expected choppiness coming up from Ciovacco. I didn't read FG's this week, but lately he's sure it's a bull market, but not sure short term what to expect.
There's always Crammer. His views from one day to the next contradict. He has an article out about how IPOs are flooding the market with shares to buy and that will bring down prices. I have no idea how to judge if that's a real issue. I suspect not.
Land: The Stock Jocks are reacting to minor and immaterial movements in interest rates, up and down, and the reactions make no logical or rational sense.
DeleteMy position is that the FED has not lost control over interest rates, but has allowed intermediate and long term yields to tick higher so far. I discussed earlier that a more forceful FED response would be made when and if the 10 year went over 2%, which would focus FED purchases on those securities.
As of 3/31/21, the FED owns over $7 trillion in treasuries and mortgage backed securities.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma-holdings
The FED is increasing its holding by $120B per month.
My earlier comment involved an attempt to get into the head of the Stock Jocks.
The real GDP Y-O-Y growth this year comes over a negative year. I suspect that above average GDP growth will occur in 2022 and possibly extend into the first half of 2023.
Using historical non-GAAP P/E ratios the stock market would already be pricing that growth into the current 23+ non-GAAP P/E using robust earnings forecasted over the next 12 months. Excess liquidity measuring in the trillions and central bank suppressed bond yields throughout the developed world may elevate stock multiples higher, but I am not going to be sticking my neck out. I am having considerable trouble staying in the market with my current stock allocation.
I thought it was a good attempt to get into stock jock's heads. I wasn't questioning your assessment. I was questioning the market's thinking.
DeleteI understand the rallying. But the moves on small rate changes are not as easy to understand. I suspect those changes are viewed as representing the future. Like a funnel, the small end describes what the big end will be. Well, in the market's mind.
But your point that the FED isn't going to let this get out of "control" seems good. It's almost their job description not to let it.
I misunderstood the GDP timeline you were describing.
I had a sense not that long ago that there will be a meaningful pullback or hesitation over prices having built in all they could at the moment. Well for many of the stocks.
It was based on my sense that I should jump in, and there was nothing to worry about... as a signal that there WAS something to worry about.
That hasn't come to pass.
I'm not ready to give up that idea yet. It hasn't been long. But so far, the market's still holding up.
There's a huge amount of fear of missing out that's left from March 2020. That's a factor that will effect pullbacks.
Land: Starting in 2009, U.S. real GDP growth has been substantially dependent on the federal government spending vast sums of borrowed money. Even with stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, real U.S. GDP averaged slightly more than 2% over the past 12 years.
DeleteImportantly, a decade or so ago, the economy could receive a nice uplift from $500B in annual deficit spending, but now requires close to or more than $1T to create the same result.
Once the pandemic headwind fully dissipates (which may not occur), and assuming no similar disaster occurs thereafter, the economy will still need IMO at least a trillion dollars in federal government deficit spending to experience 2.5% real GDP growth in 2023. Cutting that number in half could create a recession. So that is the path the U.S. is on and showing no intention of altering course.
For the F/Y ending in September 2020, the federal deficit was $3.1 trillion.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56746#:~:text=In%20fiscal%20year%202020%2C%20the,and%203.8%20percent%20in%202018.
Total U.S. government debt in 1980 was less than $1T.
The question is how much longer can the federal government generate anemic 2% to 2.5% real GDP growth through spending at least $1 trillion of borrowed money per year. This is not going to be a long term solution to growth and will eventually end in disaster. The question is not whether the disaster will happen but when. Maybe I will not live long enough to see it unfold being a few months shy of 70 now.
I am guessing 6.5%+ real GDP growth this year, coming off a negative 2020; 3% to 3.5% in 2022, and 2% to 2.5% in 2023.
When the annual average real GDP growth rate starting 2009 through 2023 is calculated, my current guess is about 2.5% with the federal government debt moving up to about $32 trillion (now at $28+T) from $9.229+T as of 12/31/2007.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm
There's substantial inflation in the stimulus needed. ... even if there isn't that much real inflation. A curious position to be in.
DeleteI just heard again, Faucci is worried about a possible surge. I'd say that could be impacting, but I haven't seen covid news tied to the market moves anymore.
This setup might get escaped by new industries such as clean energy?... or infrastructure starting a new economy energy?.... Bad holes have been dug out of before. Not often but... maybe?
I of course need to invest for now. While keeping an eye out for when Fed policy and rates start to change. In cases this setup makes a mess much sooner.
6.5% this year says the market should do well, as earnings reports and forecasts are good. It'd be next year that the slowdown will start to be evident and a disappointment... along with no excuse for more stimulus.
This picture indicates to me, that it's a good year to be in the market. But taper out by late this year or 1st quarter next. ALL other factors being irrelevant, which usually isn't the case.
Land: There are a couple of old stock trader cliches that are apropos:
Delete(1) Don't fight the tape and
(2) Don't fight the FED
I am continuing to sell my highest cost lots, no matter how small they may be. I sold 5 more TPVG today, which I will discuss out of time order in the next post, that reduced my AC to $7.31 (Fidelity taxable) with a yield, based on the regular dividend, at 19.7% (now at 50+ shares in that account). I discussed a pare in this post. Item # 1.C. above.
I also reduced my position in SCM and ARCC. The new AC in SCM is at $7.46, with a yield at 13.35, and at $11.08 for ARCC.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/scm?mod=over_search
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/arcc?mod=over_search
I sold some IRM in my Vanguard account bringing my AC there down to $22.02. I discuss pares in other accounts in this post. Items 1.L. and M above.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/irm?mod=over_search
So I am content.
I am starting to develop some interest in gene editing companies, a field that is not in my wheel house. I am reading Walter
Isaacson new book "The Code Breaker: Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing, and the Future of the Human Race."
Several companies are engaged one way or the other in that new field. The subject of Isaacson's book, Jennifer Doudna is one of the pioneers.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/slideshows/best-crispr-stocks-to-buy
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/heres-the-holy-grail-of-gene-editing/
Credit Suisse started coverage on one of those, EDIT, with an outperform rating and a $58 PT. The report is available to Schwab customers and is long. I own 1 shares to keep an eye on it. Today, I worked myself almost to 1 1/2 shares in another VRTX with 2 separate $50 orders.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$210.28 -$2.44 -1.15%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vrtx?mod=over_search
The ten year treasury yield declined 4 basis points to close at 1.64%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
The Pavlovian Stock Jock response to that immaterial change was to take growth stocks higher with value ETFs declining some. The reasoning may be that higher multiples are justified by a lower discount rate, using the 10 year treasury yield, applied to future earnings.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presentvalue.asp#:~:text=Present%20value%20(PV)%20is%20the,of%20the%20future%20cash%20flows.
Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)
$270.14 +$3.02 +1.13%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vug?mod=over_search
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)
$132.85 -$0.17 -0.13%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv?mod=over_search
I own both of those ETFs with the larger dollar exposure in VTV.
++
GM and Ford are cutting production at several plants due to the ongoing chip shortage:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/gm-cutting-production-at-several-plants-due-to-chip-shortage.html
That explains Ford's pullback. My losses have been lessening. I'm waiting for div to be reinstated. If it happens before the next recession, I might even be able to call this multi-year underwater only a puddle.
ReplyDeleteI find it hard to believe scraps are causing market movements. It's so odd. It says there's a worry factor that's moved in, when that much rate movement can influence the overall idea of whether to be in the market.
I'll conjecture that it reflects and reaffirms that the market is in unstable vix mode, not stable vix.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/04/asb-caty-evrg-ffic-fitb-gsg-ida-igr.html