Economy:
Trump says China's vice premier is coming to the US 'to make a deal'
The timeline of Trump China tariffs and trade war
Trump's tariff push squeezes businesses and consumers - Reuters Donald has assured the True Believers, over and over again, that China pays the tariffs. In TrumpWorld where True is False and False is True, this article is part of the Fake News conspiracy of the radical left wing media.
Gundlach: Better than 50% chance new tariffs happen, further hitting stocks
Dimon believes that there is an 80% chance of a trade deal. Here’s why investors are so freaked out about trade tensions: JPMorgan’s Dimon - MarketWatch
Banks have eased lending terms for business clients this year, Fed survey finds - MarketWatch; see The Fed - April 2019 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
Trump says China's vice premier is coming to the US 'to make a deal'
Trump's tariff push squeezes businesses and consumers - Reuters Donald has assured the True Believers, over and over again, that China pays the tariffs. In TrumpWorld where True is False and False is True, this article is part of the Fake News conspiracy of the radical left wing media.
Gundlach: Better than 50% chance new tariffs happen, further hitting stocks
Dimon believes that there is an 80% chance of a trade deal. Here’s why investors are so freaked out about trade tensions: JPMorgan’s Dimon - MarketWatch
Banks have eased lending terms for business clients this year, Fed survey finds - MarketWatch; see The Fed - April 2019 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
Older workers' wages aren't growing. Here's why (lack of bargaining power)
Americans Don’t Save for Retirement Because they Don’t Earn Enough Money This will negatively impact their spending when they no longer have earned income.
+++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Based on the closing prices last Monday, the Stock Jocks IMO assigned a 100% probability that the trade dispute with China will be resolved soon after a brief hiccup, notwithstanding Trump's tweets about escalating the tariff wars. That was irrational IMO. The Stock Jocks are not as confident now, but the probability assigned to an all out trade war IMO is still less than 5% based on current major index levels.
One of Wall Street’s biggest bulls is looking well past the trade drama - MarketWatch
Based on the closing prices last Monday, the Stock Jocks IMO assigned a 100% probability that the trade dispute with China will be resolved soon after a brief hiccup, notwithstanding Trump's tweets about escalating the tariff wars. That was irrational IMO. The Stock Jocks are not as confident now, but the probability assigned to an all out trade war IMO is still less than 5% based on current major index levels.
One of Wall Street’s biggest bulls is looking well past the trade drama - MarketWatch
++++
Trump:
Over 500 former federal prosecutors have signed a statement that there is more than sufficient evidence to charge Trump with multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice:
"The Mueller report describes several acts that satisfy all of the elements for an obstruction charge: conduct that obstructed or attempted to obstruct the truth-finding process, as to which the evidence of corrupt intent and connection to pending proceedings is overwhelming. . . . We believe strongly that, but for the OLC memo, the overwhelming weight of professional judgment would come down in favor of prosecution for the conduct outlined in the Mueller Report." STATEMENT BY FORMER FEDERAL PROSECUTORS – DOJ Alumni Statement – Medium
The OLC memo expresses the internal justice department policy to refrain from charging a sitting President with crimes. The remedy is impeachment until the President leaves office.
Once information emerged that George Papadopoulos had told an Austrian diplomat that Russia wanted to help Trump get elected, the FBI sent an undercover agent to ask Papadopoulos whether Russia was helping Donald.
Trump referred to that inquiry, which was justified, as "Bigger than WATERGATE" and in his view constituted spying on his campaign. 'Bigger than WATERGATE': Trump hails NYT report on FBI meeting with Papadopoulos Trump's comment is just an additional example of his opinion about his followers intelligence and knowledge.
Over 500 former federal prosecutors have signed a statement that there is more than sufficient evidence to charge Trump with multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice:
"The Mueller report describes several acts that satisfy all of the elements for an obstruction charge: conduct that obstructed or attempted to obstruct the truth-finding process, as to which the evidence of corrupt intent and connection to pending proceedings is overwhelming. . . . We believe strongly that, but for the OLC memo, the overwhelming weight of professional judgment would come down in favor of prosecution for the conduct outlined in the Mueller Report." STATEMENT BY FORMER FEDERAL PROSECUTORS – DOJ Alumni Statement – Medium
The OLC memo expresses the internal justice department policy to refrain from charging a sitting President with crimes. The remedy is impeachment until the President leaves office.
Once information emerged that George Papadopoulos had told an Austrian diplomat that Russia wanted to help Trump get elected, the FBI sent an undercover agent to ask Papadopoulos whether Russia was helping Donald.
Trump referred to that inquiry, which was justified, as "Bigger than WATERGATE" and in his view constituted spying on his campaign. 'Bigger than WATERGATE': Trump hails NYT report on FBI meeting with Papadopoulos Trump's comment is just an additional example of his opinion about his followers intelligence and knowledge.
Election security push stumbles amid White House resistance Why?
President Trump says he spoke with Putin about 'Russian hoax,' didn't warn him against 2020 election meddling - CNN
Mueller Report Quotes:
Page 1, second paragraph "The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion".
“The Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome, [while] the Campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts.”
President Trump says he spoke with Putin about 'Russian hoax,' didn't warn him against 2020 election meddling - CNN
Mueller Report Quotes:
Page 1, second paragraph "The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion".
“The Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome, [while] the Campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts.”
Barr’s conclusions are undercut by his lack of familiarity with details of Mueller’s probe Facts do not matter. What does matter is rendering an opinion that could have been written by Sean Hannity.
During his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Barr claimed that Trump could terminate an investigation into his conduct without obstructing justice provided that Donald believed he was being falsely accused.
This argument is similar to one made by Trump's other defense lawyers that Donald can not obstruct justice since he is the chief law enforcement officer. A president can't obstruct justice? Chicago Tribune
These arguments are identical to Nixon's claim, which is consistent with the GOP's Imperial Presidency doctrine (but only when the President is a republican), that any action of the President is legal. Nixon says, "...but when the President does it, that means it is not illegal..."-YouTube
Usurping powers reserved to Congress, as Trump recently did to fund his wall, is another example of the growing authoritarian tendencies of the modern day GOP as is Donald's hostility to the press (the "enemy of the people") and to voting rights and election results (even if he wins). The only press members and outlets, who are not the "enemy of the people" propagating "Fake News" in Trumpworld, are the ones who slavishly praise Donald and act as his personal propaganda organs (e.g. Fox).
Watergate had the Nixon tapes. Mueller had Annie Donaldson’s notes. (Ms. Donaldson, a conservative Harvard educated lawyer, was McGahn's Chief of Staff)
Donald stated that he believed Putin when the later claimed no Russian involvement in Venezuela. Trump says Putin not meddling in Venezuela, contradicts Pompeo, Bolton The state news agency in Russia, similar to Fox in the U.S., cited Donald's statement as proof that Russia was not meddling in Venezuela.
Of course, Donald also believed his buddy when Putin denied Russian interference in the U.S. election. Trump believes Putin on Russia meddling; Trump and Putin's Phone Call Is Helsinki All Over Again - The Atlantic; Trump praises Putin, blasts NATO, UK ahead of Europe trip; Donald Trump on Vladmir Putin: 'He is a Strong Leader'
And the Duck believed Kim, who he calls a "real leader" and "very honorable", when he denied knowing anything about North Korea's treatment of Otto Warmbier. ‘He tells me he didn’t know’: Trump defends Kim Jong Un over death of Otto Warmbier - The Washington Post; Trump after North Korea launches: Kim Jong Un 'knows that I am with him'
During his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Barr claimed that Trump could terminate an investigation into his conduct without obstructing justice provided that Donald believed he was being falsely accused.
This argument is similar to one made by Trump's other defense lawyers that Donald can not obstruct justice since he is the chief law enforcement officer. A president can't obstruct justice? Chicago Tribune
These arguments are identical to Nixon's claim, which is consistent with the GOP's Imperial Presidency doctrine (but only when the President is a republican), that any action of the President is legal. Nixon says, "...but when the President does it, that means it is not illegal..."-YouTube
Usurping powers reserved to Congress, as Trump recently did to fund his wall, is another example of the growing authoritarian tendencies of the modern day GOP as is Donald's hostility to the press (the "enemy of the people") and to voting rights and election results (even if he wins). The only press members and outlets, who are not the "enemy of the people" propagating "Fake News" in Trumpworld, are the ones who slavishly praise Donald and act as his personal propaganda organs (e.g. Fox).
Watergate had the Nixon tapes. Mueller had Annie Donaldson’s notes. (Ms. Donaldson, a conservative Harvard educated lawyer, was McGahn's Chief of Staff)
Donald stated that he believed Putin when the later claimed no Russian involvement in Venezuela. Trump says Putin not meddling in Venezuela, contradicts Pompeo, Bolton The state news agency in Russia, similar to Fox in the U.S., cited Donald's statement as proof that Russia was not meddling in Venezuela.
Of course, Donald also believed his buddy when Putin denied Russian interference in the U.S. election. Trump believes Putin on Russia meddling; Trump and Putin's Phone Call Is Helsinki All Over Again - The Atlantic; Trump praises Putin, blasts NATO, UK ahead of Europe trip; Donald Trump on Vladmir Putin: 'He is a Strong Leader'
And the Duck believed Kim, who he calls a "real leader" and "very honorable", when he denied knowing anything about North Korea's treatment of Otto Warmbier. ‘He tells me he didn’t know’: Trump defends Kim Jong Un over death of Otto Warmbier - The Washington Post; Trump after North Korea launches: Kim Jong Un 'knows that I am with him'
World Report 2018: North Korea | Human Rights Watch; North Korean Prisons: Report Details Crimes Against Humanity | Time; North Korea's Kim Jong Un Is Starving His People to Pay for Nuclear Weapons; Atrocities Under Kim Jong-un: Indoctrination, Prison Gulags, Executions - The New York Times So why would Donald call Kim a "real leader". Kim is a "real leader" like Stalin, Hitler and Pol Pot were "real leaders".
In TrumpWorld, leaders of western democracies are to be castigated and criticized endlessly as weak and ineffective leaders while authoritarian leaders receive effusive praise. Why is that?
Trump does not want Mueller to testify. Trump changes course, now say Mueller should not testify before Congress - MarketWatch
Trump's approval rating hits all-time high in Gallup poll (91% of republicans approve)
++++
1 million species under threat of extinction because of humans, report finds The republicans assure us that this is Fake News.
In TrumpWorld, leaders of western democracies are to be castigated and criticized endlessly as weak and ineffective leaders while authoritarian leaders receive effusive praise. Why is that?
Trump does not want Mueller to testify. Trump changes course, now say Mueller should not testify before Congress - MarketWatch
Trump's approval rating hits all-time high in Gallup poll (91% of republicans approve)
++++
1 million species under threat of extinction because of humans, report finds The republicans assure us that this is Fake News.
++++
1. Added 50 BIF at $11.25-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Boulder Growth & Income Fund Inc. (BIF)
Closing Price Yesterday: BIF $10.95 -$0.23 -2.06%
BIF is an externally managed stock CEF that maintains a value oriented and concentrated stock portfolio.
Sponsor's Website: Boulder Funds - Home
Top 15 Holdings as of 3/31/19:
SEC Form N-Q (holdings as of 2/28/19)
The fund maintains a large position in Berkshire Hathaway:
This purchase brings me up to 202+ share at average cost per share of $10.76. I am reinvesting the quarterly dividends.
Data Day of Trade (5/3/19):
Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.5
Closing Market Price: $11.24
Discount: -16.74
Sourced from: Boulder Growth & Income, closed-end fund summary-CEF Connect
Last Discussed: Item # 3 Bought 20 BIF at $10.55 and 30 at $10.18-Used Commission Free Trades (1/5/19 Post) and Item # 3 Bought 100 BIF at $10.73 (11/25/18 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Eliminated BIF: Sold 116+ (2/16/17 Post)
I took this stock CEF out of the small ball purchase restriction since I like its concentrated stock portfolio. I am not a concentrated portfolio type of investor, however, so my allocation to BIF will be small.
As previously discussed, I view the 13+% weighting in short term treasury bills and money market funds to be unjustified IMO given the fund's relatively high expense ratio.
The fund is externally managed, which may explain why that excess low yielding cash is not being used for more serious share buybacks given the large discount to net asset value per share.
Maximum Position: 300 Shares
Dividends: Quarterly at $.102 per share
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/22/19
1. Added 50 BIF at $11.25-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Boulder Growth & Income Fund Inc. (BIF)
Closing Price Yesterday: BIF $10.95 -$0.23 -2.06%
BIF is an externally managed stock CEF that maintains a value oriented and concentrated stock portfolio.
Sponsor's Website: Boulder Funds - Home
Top 15 Holdings as of 3/31/19:
SEC Form N-Q (holdings as of 2/28/19)
The fund maintains a large position in Berkshire Hathaway:
This purchase brings me up to 202+ share at average cost per share of $10.76. I am reinvesting the quarterly dividends.
Data Day of Trade (5/3/19):
Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.5
Closing Market Price: $11.24
Discount: -16.74
Sourced from: Boulder Growth & Income, closed-end fund summary-CEF Connect
Last Discussed: Item # 3 Bought 20 BIF at $10.55 and 30 at $10.18-Used Commission Free Trades (1/5/19 Post) and Item # 3 Bought 100 BIF at $10.73 (11/25/18 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Eliminated BIF: Sold 116+ (2/16/17 Post)
I took this stock CEF out of the small ball purchase restriction since I like its concentrated stock portfolio. I am not a concentrated portfolio type of investor, however, so my allocation to BIF will be small.
As previously discussed, I view the 13+% weighting in short term treasury bills and money market funds to be unjustified IMO given the fund's relatively high expense ratio.
The fund is externally managed, which may explain why that excess low yielding cash is not being used for more serious share buybacks given the large discount to net asset value per share.
Maximum Position: 300 Shares
Dividends: Quarterly at $.102 per share
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/22/19
2. Intermediate Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 2 Campbell Soup 3.95% SU Maturing on 3/15/25:
Profit Snapshot: +$62.36
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Sold at 101.52
YTM at 101.52 = 3.655%
Proceeds at 101.42 (after $1 per bond commission)
The annual interest payment for a 2 bond lot is $79.
The annual interest payment for a 2 bond lot is $79.
B. Sold 1 Boston Properties 3.65% SU Maturing on 2/1/26:
Profit Snapshot: $23.34
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Sold at 100.42
YTM at 100.42 = 3.577%
Proceeds at 100.32 (after $1 Commission)
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
$7K in adds
$2K in an early redemption
$7K in adds
$2K in an early redemption
A. Bought 2 Kraft Heinz 2.8% SU Maturing on 7/2/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC)
KHC Analyst Estimates
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/29/18
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.833
YTM at TC Then at 2.897%
Current Yield at TC = 2.8047%
I recently sold 2 KHC 3.5% SU bonds maturing on 7/15/22 at 100.869. The YTM then at that price was 3.204% for a maturity that was about 2 years longer. The annual YTM difference between the 2022 and 2020 KHC bonds was about .3%.
Balancing risks and rewards, and then making a judgment call, the .3% yield differential was not sufficient IMO to own the 2022 bond compared to the 2020.
I am comfortable with the credit and interest rate risk for the KHC bond maturing in about 15 months.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC)
KHC Analyst Estimates
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/29/18
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.833
YTM at TC Then at 2.897%
Current Yield at TC = 2.8047%
I recently sold 2 KHC 3.5% SU bonds maturing on 7/15/22 at 100.869. The YTM then at that price was 3.204% for a maturity that was about 2 years longer. The annual YTM difference between the 2022 and 2020 KHC bonds was about .3%.
Balancing risks and rewards, and then making a judgment call, the .3% yield differential was not sufficient IMO to own the 2022 bond compared to the 2020.
I am comfortable with the credit and interest rate risk for the KHC bond maturing in about 15 months.
B. Bought at Auction 5 Three Month Treasury Bills Maturing on 8/1/19:
IR = 2.439%
Auction Results:
IR = 2.439%
Auction Results:
C. Verizon Redeems Early 2.625% SU Maturing on 2/21/20:
Profit Snapshot: $9.62
The redemption date was 5/6/19. Verizon to redeem debt securities on May 6, 2019
While an early redemption was subject to a make whole redemption provision, that provision only added $.74 to the $2K principal amount. The make whole provision is not going change an optional redemption decision when the bond's coupon is close to the yield of the comparable maturity treasury and the time to maturity is relatively short. This bond's make whole provision would add 15 basis points to the comparable maturity treasury yield.
Item # 2.A. Bought 2 VZ SU at a TC of 99.556 (10/14/18 Post)
I still own several different VZ SU bonds.
4. Eliminations and Pares:
A. Pared CJREF-Sold 100 at $5.64-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: $16.42
Quote: CJREF (USD priced ordinary shares-pink sheet exchange)
Website: Corus Entertainment
Closing Price Yesterday: CJREF $5.85 -$0.03 -0.45%
I still own shares bought on the Toronto exchange using CADs. Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Dividends: Quarterly at C$.06 per share
Corus Entertainment Declares Quarterly Dividend for Class A and Class B Shareholders
Corus was paying a monthly dividend of C$.095 per share which was not sustainable. Dividends - Corus Entertainment The dividend was slashed 79% to C$.06 per share paid on a quarterly basis effective after the August 2018 monthly dividend payment. Corus Entertainment announces revised Capital Allocation Policy to position the company for future growth
At about the same time as the dividend slash, Corus wrote down its broadcast licenses by a whopping C$1.0137B: Corus Entertainment announces fiscal 2018 third quarter results I would attribute most of that write-down to the C$1.85B purchase of "Shaw Media". Corus Entertainment to Acquire Shaw Media in Transformational Acquisition Both Shaw Media and Corus were then effectively controlled by J.R. Shaw and his family. Broadcasting Decision CRTC 2016-110 | CRTC
So there is a lot to dislike about this company.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. (4/9/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report: Corus Entertainment Announces Fiscal 2019 Second Quarter Results
The market responded favorably to that report, probably due to the 11% increase in television advertising revenue.
The dividend payments that I received, starting in March 2018 with my first small lot purchase of CJREF, were not classified as ROC. I did exit the position with a total return excess of the dividend yield.
A. Pared CJREF-Sold 100 at $5.64-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: $16.42
Quote: CJREF (USD priced ordinary shares-pink sheet exchange)
Website: Corus Entertainment
Closing Price Yesterday: CJREF $5.85 -$0.03 -0.45%
I still own shares bought on the Toronto exchange using CADs. Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Dividends: Quarterly at C$.06 per share
Corus Entertainment Declares Quarterly Dividend for Class A and Class B Shareholders
Corus was paying a monthly dividend of C$.095 per share which was not sustainable. Dividends - Corus Entertainment The dividend was slashed 79% to C$.06 per share paid on a quarterly basis effective after the August 2018 monthly dividend payment. Corus Entertainment announces revised Capital Allocation Policy to position the company for future growth
At about the same time as the dividend slash, Corus wrote down its broadcast licenses by a whopping C$1.0137B: Corus Entertainment announces fiscal 2018 third quarter results I would attribute most of that write-down to the C$1.85B purchase of "Shaw Media". Corus Entertainment to Acquire Shaw Media in Transformational Acquisition Both Shaw Media and Corus were then effectively controlled by J.R. Shaw and his family. Broadcasting Decision CRTC 2016-110 | CRTC
So there is a lot to dislike about this company.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. (4/9/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report: Corus Entertainment Announces Fiscal 2019 Second Quarter Results
The market responded favorably to that report, probably due to the 11% increase in television advertising revenue.
B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.7-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: +$50.21 (excludes prior 2019 sell)
Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $21.73-Used Commission Free Trade (12/16/18 Post)Item # 3 Bought 20 EAI at $23.68 - Used Commission Free Trade (10/7/18 Post)
Quote: Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066
Prospectus
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Par Value: $25
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
Optional Call: At issuer's option on or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/66 unless redeemed at par value earlier at issuer's option (asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of issuer)
Credit Ratings: A/A2
Profit Snapshot: +$50.21 (excludes prior 2019 sell)
Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $21.73-Used Commission Free Trade (12/16/18 Post)Item # 3 Bought 20 EAI at $23.68 - Used Commission Free Trade (10/7/18 Post)
Quote: Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066
Prospectus
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a sub-category of Exchange Traded Bonds
Par Value: $25
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
Optional Call: At issuer's option on or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/66 unless redeemed at par value earlier at issuer's option (asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of issuer)
Credit Ratings: A/A2
This trade eliminates the last first mortgage baby bond in my portfolio. I still own several $1K par value first mortgage bonds that have much shorter maturities.
C. Eliminated SUNS-Sold 62+ at $17.34 (used commission free trade):
Net Asset Value Per Share as of 12/31/18: $16.3 Form 10-K at p, 81
Closing Price Yesterday: SUNS $17.16 -$0.03 -0.17%
After I sold the shares, SUNS released its first quarter report and claimed a $16.4 net asset value per share.
I will consider selling a BDC when the market price exceeds the last reported net asset value per share. The $17.34 price was about a 6.5% premium to the last reported net asset value per share.
Quote: Solar Senior Capital Ltd.
Profit Snapshot: +$91.16 (excludes earlier sell)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1175 per share ($1.41 annually)
Last Buy Discussions:
Item #1C. Bought 10 SUNS at $15.78, 10 at $15.68 and 10 at $15.3-Used Commission Free Trades (12/12/18 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 20 SUNS at $16.3 and 10 at $15.81-Used Commission Free Trades (10/31/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 SUNS at $16.62-Used Commission Free Trade (9/9/18 Post)
Last Sell Discussions:
Item # 2.A. Sold 30 SUNS at $16.69 (2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = +$2.09); Item # 2 Eliminated SUNS in Schwab Account-Sold 112+ Shares at $16.72n (2/27/19 Post)(profit Snapshot = $28.89) Item # 2.B. at $17.45 on ex-dividend date (3/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.48)-Item # 1 Bought 50 SUNS at $15.06-Update For Portfolio Management And Positioning As Of 10/16/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
SUNS Trading Profits To Date = $239.62
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/19): Solar Senior Capital Ltd. Announces Quarter Ended March 31, 2019 Financial Results; Declares Monthly Distribution of $0.1175 Per Share for May 2019
Net investment income was reported at $.35 per share, unchanged from the 2018 first quarter. The quarterly dividend rate, currently paid in monthly installments, is $.3525 per share. "At March 31, 2019, 99.8% and 98.5% of Solar Senior’s portfolio was performing on a fair value and cost basis, respectively."
Many investors may like the monthly dividends, the dividend yield, and the 99.8% weighting in first lien loans while downplaying the premium price to net asset value per share and the dividend coverage.
Since my limited objective with BDCs is to earn a return in excess of the dividend yield, I place more emphasis on the premium/discount price and dividend coverage issues.
I also recognize that even first lien loans can go sour resulting in significant loss of principal.
The general path to losses starts with lending more money to a struggling company, which ends up deepening the eventual loss.
Then, the next step may be a recapitalization plan where first lien bonds are exchanged for fewer second lien bonds and new loans are added with first lien status. This is when a BDC with existing loans tries to salvage its investment but ends up postponing the day of reckoning a few months while losing its senior first lien status in a bankruptcy. I have discussed that trend in several recent posts giving specific examples.
5. Bought 50 Shares of the Deservedly Hated FSK at $6.25-Used Commission Free Trade:
C. Eliminated SUNS-Sold 62+ at $17.34 (used commission free trade):
Net Asset Value Per Share as of 12/31/18: $16.3 Form 10-K at p, 81
Closing Price Yesterday: SUNS $17.16 -$0.03 -0.17%
After I sold the shares, SUNS released its first quarter report and claimed a $16.4 net asset value per share.
I will consider selling a BDC when the market price exceeds the last reported net asset value per share. The $17.34 price was about a 6.5% premium to the last reported net asset value per share.
Quote: Solar Senior Capital Ltd.
Profit Snapshot: +$91.16 (excludes earlier sell)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1175 per share ($1.41 annually)
Last Buy Discussions:
Item #1C. Bought 10 SUNS at $15.78, 10 at $15.68 and 10 at $15.3-Used Commission Free Trades (12/12/18 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 20 SUNS at $16.3 and 10 at $15.81-Used Commission Free Trades (10/31/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 SUNS at $16.62-Used Commission Free Trade (9/9/18 Post)
Last Sell Discussions:
Item # 2.A. Sold 30 SUNS at $16.69 (2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = +$2.09); Item # 2 Eliminated SUNS in Schwab Account-Sold 112+ Shares at $16.72n (2/27/19 Post)(profit Snapshot = $28.89) Item # 2.B. at $17.45 on ex-dividend date (3/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.48)-Item # 1 Bought 50 SUNS at $15.06-Update For Portfolio Management And Positioning As Of 10/16/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
SUNS Trading Profits To Date = $239.62
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/19): Solar Senior Capital Ltd. Announces Quarter Ended March 31, 2019 Financial Results; Declares Monthly Distribution of $0.1175 Per Share for May 2019
Net investment income was reported at $.35 per share, unchanged from the 2018 first quarter. The quarterly dividend rate, currently paid in monthly installments, is $.3525 per share. "At March 31, 2019, 99.8% and 98.5% of Solar Senior’s portfolio was performing on a fair value and cost basis, respectively."
Many investors may like the monthly dividends, the dividend yield, and the 99.8% weighting in first lien loans while downplaying the premium price to net asset value per share and the dividend coverage.
Since my limited objective with BDCs is to earn a return in excess of the dividend yield, I place more emphasis on the premium/discount price and dividend coverage issues.
I also recognize that even first lien loans can go sour resulting in significant loss of principal.
The general path to losses starts with lending more money to a struggling company, which ends up deepening the eventual loss.
Then, the next step may be a recapitalization plan where first lien bonds are exchanged for fewer second lien bonds and new loans are added with first lien status. This is when a BDC with existing loans tries to salvage its investment but ends up postponing the day of reckoning a few months while losing its senior first lien status in a bankruptcy. I have discussed that trend in several recent posts giving specific examples.
5. Bought 50 Shares of the Deservedly Hated FSK at $6.25-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK)
Closing Price Yesterday: FSK $6.30 -$0.08 -1.25%
The first quarter earnings report is scheduled for release after the market closes today. I have FSK in my Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy.
The symbol changed to FSK from FSIC after the merger between FS Investment Corporation and the BDC Corporate Capital Trust, formerly traded under the CCT symbol. FS/KKR Announces Closing of Merger of FS Investment Corporation and Corporate Capital Trust
Average Cost Per Share Prior to Purchase: $6.51
Average Cost Per Share After Purchase: $6.43
While that decline in average cost per share is minuscule, it does improve my chances of eventually exiting the position with a share profit. The goal with every BDC purchase is to escape with a total return in excess of the dividend yield. I am contemplating how to escape while still incarcerated in the position.
Current Position This Account = 157+ shares
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 per share annually)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/19/19
There is some risk that the dividend may be cut slightly.
Yield at $6.43 Total Average Cost = 11.82%
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Bought 15 FSIC at $6 and 20 at $5.65-Used Commission Free Trades(12/23/18 Post)
Company Loan Risk Classifications as of 12/31/18:
FS KKR Capital 2018 Annual Report at page 55 (risk factor summary starts at page 19 and ends at page 44)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I think the stock jocks are correct that there is near zero chance this turns into a trade war. Because Trump like his usual self, backs down.
ReplyDeleteHowever, meanwhile, he's destroying industries like farming, and other businesses.
So that will have an impact on earnings and stock prices. That impact has been not considered by the enthusiastic stock jocks very much.
Also Trump's lack of sense of how any of tariff's work (at this point he knows but chooses to keep his false claims, but he didn't know originally), makes one wonder what poor perception he will have next that will dent the economy or market.
In other un-news, Trump's high flying time in the 80's-90's was filled with "the biggest" loses, "losses like you've never seen, the bestest losses." He will be continuing to bring that savvy to the US gov't.
In other un-news, Trump received a thing of value from Jerry Falwell, an endorsement. Because Cohen fixed a Falwell nudie problem, but kept some copies to blackmail Falwell into the endorsement. Something about the endorsement as a thing of value was illegal, but I don't remember what.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/reuters-cohen-said-he-fixed-racy-photo-problem-for-falwell-jr-59151941804
I suppose I should turn on the TV and see what episode of "we voted in a sociopath" is airing today.
Meanwhile, the market seems not very worried nor reactive to anything politics related.
Land: For those buying today, I would just emphasize the phrase "caveat emptor". I would game the odds of a break-down in the trade negotiations, with an acceleration of the tariffs wars at least for several months at closer to 30%.
DeleteIt is inconceivable that Donald is unaware of who actually pays the tariffs. His oft-repeated lie that China pays serves a purpose. Most people do not know and would not be paying any attention to the fact checkers anyway.
When have you heard a republican politician admit that tariffs imposed by a republican president are taxes paid by U.S. consumers. For those middle income families that did receive some minor benefit from the tax legislation, it would be wiped out by the tariff taxes.
According to a recently released study, the 25% tariff on washing machine imports has raised the cost of both washing machines and dryers, which are not subject to the tariff, by a combined $200.
The economics is that the tariff raises the price of imports AND the prices of domestically produced products including some products that are not even subject to the tariff. The rise in the washing machine price creates an opportunity to raise the price of dryers, frequently bought together with the washing machines.
I still haven't put on the TV to find out today's insanity. I've been instead arguing with a PDF that I edited, signed, and now can't edit because it's signed. Even though I'm the signer and it's not locked.
DeleteWhen you put it in terms of trade wars for a few months, he seems determined to do so. I haven't guessed his motivation. There is one. And it's not negotiation, it's something more backroom motivation or manipulation of something.
I believe originally Donald does not know on many things. He did not know a wall is pointless. He, as consumer of the GOP, believed their prior claims of tariffs paid by the other country. However, once told, he digs in more. So now he is flat out lying.
Tariffs are in effect taxes on the lower & middle class. I can see how it spreads to other items, equaling out prices by raising across the board.
Well back to my PDF. I decided to add another Word page, and to stop arguing with it.
Investors are reacting favorably to the first quarter earnings report released by TCG BDC:
ReplyDeleteTCG BDC Inc.
$15.32 +0.41 +2.75%
Last Updated: May 8, 2019 at 12:55 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cgbd
Without checking, I do not know how many shares that I own, but the number is probably somewhere between 100 and 200, held in two accounts. I do not have this BDC in my deservedly hated category.
Earnings Report:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/05/07/1818818/0/en/TCG-BDC-Inc-Announces-First-Quarter-2019-Financial-Results-and-Declares-Second-Quarter-2019-Dividend-of-0-37-Per-Share.html
There was a slight decrease in NII per share to $.45 compared to the $.47 2018 4th quarter "primarily due to a decrease in income recognized from the acceleration of OID and prepayment fees from reduced prepayments, partially offset by an increase in interest income from growth in the investment portfolio."
Net asset value per share increased to $17.3 from $17.09 as of 12/31/18.
"During the three month period ended March 31, 2019, the Company repurchased 958,182 shares of the Company's common stock pursuant to the Company’s $100 million stock repurchase program at an average cost of $14.70 per share, or $14.1 million in the aggregate, resulting in accretion to net assets per share of $0.04."
The Board declined the regular quarterly dividend of $.37 per share.
My last discussion:
Item # 1.B. Sunday, January 13, 2019
B. Added 10 CBGD at $13.95; 10 at $13.5 and 10 at $12.6 -Used Commission Free Trades:
Aegon has finally called AED, the 6.5% hybrid preferred, a cornerstone of my Roth portfolio since 2006. I will have to figure what to do with the proceeds. It will be pretty hard to beat 6.5%. Suggestions welcome. :)
ReplyDeleteCathie: The calls at par value have been an ongoing problem for years. The call is advantageous to the issuer when it can refinance at a lower cost and inherently disadvantageous to the owner who can not find a similar risk security that has the same yield. The alternatives have been and continue to be to accept less yield or more risk with the proceeds. The call at par value option reserved to the issuer creates asymmetric interest rate risk in its favor.
DeleteAED is a hybrid security that is junior in priority to senior debt but superior to common and preferred stock. Moody's has a Baa1 rating on it currently.
To receive a 6.5% yield now, you would have to accept more risk, a lower credit rating, and probably go down in the capital structure to an equity preferred stock.
I frequently trade and currently own, for example, HTPRD which has a 6.5% coupon and is currently trading near $23.3 with a $25 par value. My last trade was to pare my position (see link to the right) but I still own 150 shares.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ht.pd
The issuer just announced first quarter results:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/29/1811975/0/en/Hersha-Hospitality-Trust-Announces-First-Quarter-2019-Results.html
That security is not rated, but would probably be rated at high end junk if it was. That is what I mean about having to accept more risk for the same yield or better yield.
Dividends are not qualified since HT is a pass through entity (REIT), but that does not matter in your Roth IRA. Dividends are cumulative but can be deferred only after no cash dividend is paid to the common share owners. That is the preferred shares preference right to cash over only the common share owners. No interest is paid on any deferred dividend unlike the mostly defunct now trust preferred securities that were in effect junior bonds.
Or you could accept less yield for a higher rated security like the exchange traded first mortgage bonds. For someone my age, they are potentially perpetual securities given their maturity dates but so was AED which had not maturity date but only an optional call right reserved to the issuer.
I have now sold all of my exchange traded first mortgage bonds but I am always in a trading mode for them. They tanked in price during the stock meltdown for no good reason other than they are predominantly owned by individual investors who were panicking and those securities can be traded easily like a stock. I will be a buyer again when there is panic causing a irrational drop in those securities when yields for quality bonds are falling not rising.
Whenever I assign a probability to a future event, it is of course a guess. The guess is a judgment call based on publicly available information. The guess does have some impact on my investment decisions. I did not buy any stock or stock ETF today since my probability assessment of a total breakdown in the China trade negotiations is not the same as near zero percent assigned by the Stock Jocks as expressed in current prices.
ReplyDeleteI would prefer now to just wait and see what actually happens. We will know soon enough.
+++
FSK is trading down slightly in after hours trading after reporting its first quarter results. ($.05 currently)
Quote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fsk
Report:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fsk-reports-first-quarter-2019-financial-results-and-declares-regular-distribution-for-second-quarter-300846619.html
I do not view the report as a positive. NII and adjusted NII per share was reported at $.18 per share. NII for the prior quarter was reported at $.19 unadjusted and $.21 adjusted. There was no adjustment for the 2019 first quarter and $.02 add back in the prior quarter was due to excise taxes per share.
The current quarterly dividend rate is $.19 per share. The failure to earn that penny rate increases the possibility of a dividend cut or what I generally would call "at risk of a cut".
Net asset value per share did increase a meagre 2 cents to $7.86 from the prior quarter.
Percent of investments on nonaccrual stood at .4%.
I don't see anything in this report that would cause me to remove the deservedly hated characterization. The external managers are not worth anywhere remotely close to what they are being paid IMO.
So I may be incarcerated involuntarily in my Lottery Ticket position for longer than I previously anticipated.
Trump made sure to continue errant negative comments.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if or why he wants the market to worry about trade?
Also why the market hasn't had a big sell off day over this. Just a little deflating after having reached new highs.
If there is a resolution, I'll miss the first gain, but will commit to myself to buy after that. I won't be waiting with my finger on the buy button with muscle cramping in expectation.
Still today's meeting could yield something... if China figured out how to manage our president, in a way that DNC hasn't yet.
Latest I'm hearing is that White house press are getting their credentials revoked.
Based on word slinging by China and Trump after the market's close yesterday, my probability assessment of a total breakdown is now more probable than not.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible that both sides are merely posturing ahead of the today's meeting, but it does not sound that way to me.
Trump felt a need to lambast China last night during a campaign rally. While the Trumpsters cheered his remarks and his zeal to impose more tariffs on China's exports, they are not the kind of comments that are conducive to closing a deal that is on the brink of falling apart. Donald also made it clear that he was not going to budge.
Through its state media, China was saying that the U.S. needed to meet it half way, which sounds like they want Trump to retreat from some demands.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-commerce/as-tariff-hike-looms-china-asks-us-to-meet-it-halfway-denies-backtracking-idUSKCN1SF0N3
One Chinese commentator, close to the government there, mentioned that the Chinese delegation was coming to the U.S. only because they were invited and accepted the invitation. It would be bad form to cancel now based on Chinese traditions.
If U.S. raises tariffs tomorrow, China will increase its tariffs as well.
There are also a variety of measures that China can take to hurt U.S. businesses operating in China. It can respond by devaluing its currency making its products cheaper to U.S. importers, buying more products from other countries (e.g. soybeans), increasing custom scrutiny and regulatory scrutiny for U.S. products, and meaningfully decreasing its purchases of U.S. debt.
You're pegging this as the Donald's need to dismiss who's not doing what he wants... and his need to double down on what is obviously not working out. Rather than on any thought that the market would dislike this. Well, can't disagree there. We've seen this recording play before.
ReplyDeleteI still expect that somewhere in that delegation meeting is some backroom talk by Trump. Not on tariffs. On regarding whatever deal he has with Russia & NK.
However China too is finding out that not "being in bad form" is a problem when dealing with donald. Being polite and using norms doesn't tend to accomplish or work out well.
Can't say the market is too worried yet. It's still only 1% down on futures.
Land: Fortunately, the U.S. economy is not as dependent as other economies, including China, on exports. An acceleration of the trade war with China may not be enough to send the U.S. into a recession. It will depend on whether consumers and businesses lose confidence and cut their spending in response.
DeleteFor the good of the nation, I hope that trade dispute with China comes to an end soon. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to rationally predict a successful resolution as the most probable outcome.
Without recession, the tariffs could still produce less earnings for US companies, as some companies have predicted.
DeleteI wasn't thinking recession, but is that why the market is so bothered? And not just off earnings?
I want to buy into this. I don't have a sense of timing yet. Whether it's here, or wait another day or two for it to fall apart all together or another feel good comment by Muchin.
Looks like techs taking it the worst, as having the most interaction/dependence on China.
DeleteLand: The trade negotiations are salvageable, and I will generally discuss how in the next post. However, for that to happen, it may be necessary for Donald to have a brain transplant.
DeleteThere are reasons why a trade deal is still possible. The primary reason is that Donald has to realize that an acceleration of the tariff war will harm his reelection chances.
ReplyDeleteThe Stock Jocks are responding negatively to the earnings report of the BDC PennantPark Floating Rate Capital viewed by BDC Buzz and others as a "safe" BDC. I would never use the word safe to describe a BDC. If you want to say that some BDCs are "safer" than others, then I will not dispute that characterization but safe is only relative when used that way. A better characterization is simply to acknowledge that all BDCs are risky investments and some are riskier than others.
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PPLT):
$12.08 -$1.24 -9.31%
Last Updated: May 9, 2019 at 12:07 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pflt
Earnings Report:
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/pennantpark-floating-rate-capital-ltd-announces-financial-results-for-the-quarter-ended-march-31-20190508-01163
As with other BDC earnings releases, insufficient or no information is provided to explain negative items.
This is what I mean by insufficient: "As of March 31, 2019, we had four portfolio companies on non-accrual, representing 3.2% and 1.5% of our overall portfolio on a cost and fair value basis, respectively. Overall, the portfolio had net unrealized depreciation of $26.0 million."
When looking a BDC report, my first focus is on net asset value per share and NII compared to the prior quarter and the year ago quarter.
The decline in net asset value per share for this BDC in the first quarter was the worst percentage wise than all others that I have looked at so far.
PFLT reported a NAV per share of $13.24. PFLT does not provide in its release the Q/E 12/31/18 value.
So I had to go the SEC to find out. The net asset value per share as of 12/31/18 was $13.66:
Page 4
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1504619/000156459019002136/pflt-10q_20181231.htm
The net asset value per share was at $13.98 as of 3/31/18:
Page 4
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1504619/000156459018012949/pflt-10q_20180331.htm
Y-O-Y the decline in net asset value per share was 5.29% and a -3.07% compared to the prior quarter. The trend is what concerns me.
I own a few shares. In my Fidelity account, I am playing small ball with a 30 share position bought at $11.99.
Item # 3
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/01/observations-and-sample-of-recent_9.html
I will consider adding to that position with a decline below that price, but will wait and make a decision until I review the earnings call transcript which hopefully is more elucidating than the press release.
PFLT:
DeletePennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (PFLT)
$12.00 -$1.32 -9.91%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pflt
The conference call was not much help. This BDC had four non-accrual loans and none as of 12/31/18.
The 10-Q at least provides the names using the footnote 6 number to identify them.
See pages 8-11:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1504619/000156459019017192/pflt-10q_20190331.htm
Two of the four, New Trident and Lifecore Holdings, have been written down substantially.
What may have spooked investors was the new non-accrual status of the Hollander Sleep Products and Quick Weight Loss loans as well as the significant write-down in the Country Fresh Holdings loan which is not yet on non-accrual.
The non-accrual Hollander Sleep loan has a cost of $10.785+M and has only been written down to $9.418M.
PNNT also has a large loan to the same company which is one reason for its price decline today.
PennantPark Investment Corp.
$6.68 -$0.27 -3.88%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pnnt
See PNNT 10-Q at page 8 ($19.7+M cost valued at $16.95+M)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1383414/000156459019017975/pnnt-10q_20190331.htm
The main Country Fresh loan has a $17.713+M cost and has been written down to $11.63+M. The valuation was at $15.068+M as of 12/31/18, so that was a big hit in just three months.
I am not sure why the New Trident loan had any value as of 12/31/18. The cost was shown then at $6.98+M with a value of $3.458+M and is at $.282+M now.
Page 9
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1504619/000156459019002136/pflt-10q_20181231.htm
The health related company now on non-accrual, Lifecorp, has a cost of $4.599M and was valued at 3.08+M as of 12/31/18 and at .933+M on 3/31/19.
There is enough of a bad vibe here that I will not buy more PFLT unless the price drops below $11.5 and then the purchase will be a small ball amount.
The problem for an individual investor is that there is no way to know whether the loans still assigned significant values will be significantly written down more, remain or turn into non-accruals in the case of Country Fresh, and/or require a recapitalization and more cash which frequently in BDC land ends up increasing the overall loss.
As I have emphasized many times here, BDCs are risky and become toxic, particularly during a recession.
The increase in tariffs, scheduled to go into effect this Friday at 12:01A.M. EST unless Donald changes his mind, will not be applied to goods that have left China's ports before the deadline. So they will not start being collected for another 3 or 4 weeks.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tariff-deadline-looms-for-chinese-goods-but-hike-wont-take-effect-for-weeks-2019-05-09?mod=mw_latestnews
As of today's close, the 6 month treasury bill has a 1 basis point yield advantage over the 10 year treasury note.
The yield curve inverts starting with the 6 month T Bill's 2.46% yield and continues through the ten year note. The 30 year treasury is at 2.87%.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
So the 3month is not inverted. But further down, the 6 month through 10 year is.
DeleteThat's all before today's sell off. So there may be a reassessment today.
The Stock Jocks are reacting favorably to Mnuchin's oblique comment that today's negotiation was "constructive" and that is all that he was going to say on the matter.
ReplyDelete"Dow turns positive, rebounding from 358-point loss, after Mnuchin says trade talks 'constructive'"
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/us-markets-as-higher-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-kick-in.html
The talks have ended for today. I have not seen any report on whether further discussions are scheduled for the weekend or whether China's delegation is heading home.
Mnuchin's comment is better than saying that the negotiations have broken down and no furthers meetings are scheduled, but his comment is too vague to provide comfort to me and provides no clear indication whether or not the logjam has been broken and a deal was back on track.
A Bloomberg article, citing sources, states that "little progress was made during a working dinner on Thursday and in Friday morning talks. Liu didn’t come prepared to offer much more in the way of concessions".
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-10/u-s-hikes-tariffs-as-china-talks-are-poised-for-a-second-day?srnd=premium
If that is correct, then all that can be said at the moment is that there was not a total breakdown-yet.
In other words, it is not the kind of comment that would cause me to buy or to sell stocks.
In Donald's tweets this morning, he sounded like more tariffs on China's imports would be better for the U.S. than a trade deal where China cries uncle and bends a knee in homage to the Duck, kissing his shoes and the ground that he walks on while chanting "we are not worthy". I suspect that the U.S. had pushed China too far, putting them in a place where tariffs on their exports is a better alternative than accepting U.S. demands.
If the China delegation is headed home, that would be a bad sign since the next step could easily be retaliatory measures over the weekend as both sides dig into a more ominous confrontational stance, shooting each other in the foot.
China will see this as setting negotiation prescient, and won't want to be seen as able to be pushed around.
DeleteLand: I have published a new post. Some of the issues are discussed there and in my attached comments. One major reason for the decline today is an attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers and 4 UAE cargo ships. Both countries are claiming that the attacks were "sabotage" which suggests bombs aboard the ships rather than a missile attack.
DeleteAs to buying now, I put in a plan before the trade negotiations stalled and discussed what I planed to do. Today, there will likely be some extremely light buying (5 share lots) in one or more commission free ETFs. I do not know where a bottom will be put in place so that kind of buying only increases with the severity of the declines from here.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_11.html