Economy:
Tentative Brexit pact faces steep odds in the U.K. Parliament MarketWatch The tentative pact is viewed as worse than the one negotiated by PM May. A vote in the U.K. Parliament is expected later today.
Two-thirds of households preparing for recession, even as U.S. economy continues to grow - MarketWatch Fear of a recession can cause one.
U.S. retail sales snap 6-month win streak in September as receipts fall 0.3% - MarketWatch; US retail sales fall in a sign that consumer economy could be cracking August was revised from +.4 to +.6%, so no significant worries here yet. The consensus estimate for September was at .3%.
U.S. would win tariff war with Europe ‘very easily,’ Trump boasts - MarketWatch
U.S. tariffs on $7.5B in European exports started yesterday. U.S. tariffs on $7.5 billion E.U. goods starts Friday-MarketWatch Those tariffs were sanctioned by the WTO due to the EU's unlawful Airbus subsidies.
Tentative Brexit pact faces steep odds in the U.K. Parliament MarketWatch The tentative pact is viewed as worse than the one negotiated by PM May. A vote in the U.K. Parliament is expected later today.
Two-thirds of households preparing for recession, even as U.S. economy continues to grow - MarketWatch Fear of a recession can cause one.
U.S. retail sales snap 6-month win streak in September as receipts fall 0.3% - MarketWatch; US retail sales fall in a sign that consumer economy could be cracking August was revised from +.4 to +.6%, so no significant worries here yet. The consensus estimate for September was at .3%.
U.S. would win tariff war with Europe ‘very easily,’ Trump boasts - MarketWatch
U.S. tariffs on $7.5B in European exports started yesterday. U.S. tariffs on $7.5 billion E.U. goods starts Friday-MarketWatch Those tariffs were sanctioned by the WTO due to the EU's unlawful Airbus subsidies.
Donald claims that the election of a Democrat President in 2020 will cause another Great Depression.
There are doubts about China's promise to purchase more US farm products Trump claims that the Phase 1 "deal" requires China to purchase between $40B to $50B of U.S. farm products over a 2 year period. China has not confirmed either the amount or the time period.
China's factory prices post steepest fall in three years - Reuters
China posts slowest GDP growth rate since 1992 - MarketWatch; China Q3 GDP: Beijing posts economic data amid trade war with US (6% vs. 6.1% consensus estimate)
Fed's Evans says no more rate cuts are needed this year
China posts slowest GDP growth rate since 1992 - MarketWatch; China Q3 GDP: Beijing posts economic data amid trade war with US (6% vs. 6.1% consensus estimate)
Fed's Evans says no more rate cuts are needed this year
U.S. Government Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
Total U.S. Government Debt as of 9/30/1981 = $997,855,000,000.00
Government - Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual 1950 - 1999
Annual deficits are now running close to the nation's total debt in 1981.
Total U.S. Government Debt as of 9/20/2019: $ 22,686,616,515,355.41
The percentage increase from 9/30/1981 to 9/31/19 is about 2,173%.
Government - Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding
++++++
Total U.S. Government Debt as of 9/30/1981 = $997,855,000,000.00
Government - Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual 1950 - 1999
Annual deficits are now running close to the nation's total debt in 1981.
Total U.S. Government Debt as of 9/20/2019: $ 22,686,616,515,355.41
The percentage increase from 9/30/1981 to 9/31/19 is about 2,173%.
Government - Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The valuation indicator favored by Buffett is the Wilshire 5000 stock index dividend by GDP. This indicator recent went over the 2000 high water mark. Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Market Remains Overvalued - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
These charts tell us the bull market has a couple of years left to run - MarketWatch
The valuation indicator favored by Buffett is the Wilshire 5000 stock index dividend by GDP. This indicator recent went over the 2000 high water mark. Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Market Remains Overvalued - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
These charts tell us the bull market has a couple of years left to run - MarketWatch
Global deal making set to plunge 25% next year as risk of recession rises - MarketWatch
“There Is Definite Hanky-Panky Going On”: The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades | Vanity Fair
‘Hanky-panky?’ Traders pocket ‘stunning’ profits after Trump’s comments on trade talks goose the stock market - MarketWatch
IBM laid another egg. IBM earnings show few positives beyond Red Hat, analysts say-MarketWatch I own 12 shares, with future buys subject to the small ball trading restriction which will require the next purchase price to be below $108.48.
Boeing shares slide on report FAA is concerned it was misled about 737 Max; FAA says Boeing withheld 'concerning' messages about the 737 Max
Johnson & Johnson stock pummeled after asbestos-related baby powder recall - MarketWatch
“There Is Definite Hanky-Panky Going On”: The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades | Vanity Fair
‘Hanky-panky?’ Traders pocket ‘stunning’ profits after Trump’s comments on trade talks goose the stock market - MarketWatch
IBM laid another egg. IBM earnings show few positives beyond Red Hat, analysts say-MarketWatch I own 12 shares, with future buys subject to the small ball trading restriction which will require the next purchase price to be below $108.48.
Boeing shares slide on report FAA is concerned it was misled about 737 Max; FAA says Boeing withheld 'concerning' messages about the 737 Max
Johnson & Johnson stock pummeled after asbestos-related baby powder recall - MarketWatch
+++++
Trump:
Flurry of Trump Falsehoods - FactCheck.org
Trump Wrong on U.S. Agriculture Exports to China - FactCheck.org
Lying all of the time is one of Trump's "conservative" values.
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNN
Trump and the RNC broke the previous record by raising $125M in the 2019 third quarter.
Ex-special ops commander: 'Our republic is under attack from the president'; Opinion | Our Republic Is Under Attack From the President - The New York Times (written by Admiral McRaven, the former commander of the United States Special Operations Command) Donald is not alone in that attack. He has a 90% approval rating among republicans, a clear majority of whom view him as both honest and a role model for their children. Some polls have recently shown a slight decline in Trump's approval rating among republicans to 85%.
Top Commerce Department aides orchestrated NOAA’s Hurricane Dorian statement (Trump did not want to be contradicted so he ordered political appointees to draft a statement chastising the National Weather Service for correctly informing the public about Dorian's path)
When was the last time you had to flash an ID to buy groceries: Trump says again that Americans need ID to buy groceries. They still don't
Trump campaign threatens to sue CNN, citing Project Veritas videos | TheHill I am hoping that Charles Harder files his lawsuit, that it receives a quick and more than justified burial by a court, and then hopefully CNN would file a malicious prosecution civil suit against Harder (requires that a lawsuit be dismissed and lack probable cause for filing).
Trump's In Your Face Corruption:
Donald is becoming more brazen by the day. Shrugging off allegations of self-dealing, Trump picks his Doral resort for the JUNE G-7 summit-POLITICO Trump has awarded next year’s G-7 summit to his Doral resort - The Washington Post
Republican politicians do not see anything wrong with Donald awarding himself a federal contract worth millions and requiring foreigners to patronize his resort. They have expressly voiced approval of this latest act of corruption or remained silent which is the equivalent of approval.
Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) believes the opaque decision making progress that led to Doral's selection showed "tremendous integrity". According to Cramer there is "tremendous integrity" in Trump's Decision to Host G7 at his own Property So at least we know what republicans view as "tremendous integrity", though it does make me wonder what mere "integrity" will involve.
Donald owes a lot of money secured by the Doral Resort that is floundering. June is also the slowest month of the year for that resort. Business at Trump's Doral club is declining - The Washington Post (Donald reportedly bought the resort for $150M using $125M of borrowed funds from the only lender who would loan him money-Deutsche Bank; club revenue declined 18% between 2015-2017 with a 53% occupancy rate in 2017)
Fahenhold is a WP reporter who is knowledgeable about Doral's profitability.
Hotel properties have a lot of fixed costs which can cause loses to skyrocket in a month where the facility would have less than 50% occupancy.
Profits down at President Trump’s Miami hotel, the Doral | Miami Herald
#BedBugSummit Trends After Allegation of Infestation at Trump's Doral Resort Resurfaces Ahead of G7 Summit
++
Donald, Giuliani and Ukraine:
Gallup survey finds 52% support for impeachment
Trump's Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney: Trump mentioned to "me in the past the corruption related to the DNC server? Absolutely. No question about that. But that’s it, that’s why we held up the money.”
As with other republicans, Mulvaney claimed this was “absolutely appropriate.”
What he meant to say was that it was "absolutely appropriate" when done by a republican President and an impeachable offense when done by a Democrat President.
Mulvaney brashly admits quid pro quo over Ukraine aid as key details emerge Mulvaney wants to tie the quid pro quo to an investigation of matters relating to the 2016 election, even though Trump clearly told Zelensky that he wanted an investigation into the Bidens and into the 2016 election. The quid pro quo is present in the summary of that call. Zelensky mentioned military aid and then Trump immediately said he wanted a favor from Ukraine.
Shortly after admitting there was a "quid pro quo", Mulvaney issued a written statement claiming that his clear quid pro quo statements were misconstrued by the Fake News Media and his statements made on tape were part of their witch hunt.
What he actually said was that there was no quid pro quo according to Mulvaney's instant revisionist history. Mulvaney Denies Admitting Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine Military Aid I guess the tape of his admission was altered by the Lugenpresse. The Alt-Right Has Adopted An Old Nazi Term For Reporters
The demand for an investigation into matters relating to the 2016 election is based on a totally bizarre and factually unsupported conspiracy theory that it was Ukraine rather than Russia who hacked the DNC. Most likely, that conspiracy theory originates from Russian intelligence.
Crowdstrike: The Truth About Trump’s Insane Ukraine ‘Server’ Conspiracy;
Trump seized on a conspiracy theory called the 'insurance policy.' Now, it's at the center of an impeachment investigation.
How a Fringe Theory About Ukraine Took Root in the White House - The New York Times;
Why Trump asked Ukraine’s president about ‘CrowdStrike’ - The Washington Post
“They Read the Headline and Just Ran With It”: How MAGA Media Built the Ukraine Story That’s Become Trump’s Last Line of Defense | Vanity Fair;
Trump staff warned in vain that Ukraine conspiracy was false: ABC, NYT - Business Insider
This bizarre conspiracy theory was probably hatched by Russian intelligence in an effort to undermine U.S. intelligence agencies and to distract from actual proof that Russia interfered in the 2016 election. Trump and Barr are cooperating with that effort.
The goal, shared by Donald and Putin, is to manufacture a story that it was Hillary who hacked into the DNC server with Ukraine's help rather than Russian intelligence as part of their U.S. election interference campaign to help Donald win the election. Part of this conspiracy theory is that the DNC server is being secreted somewhere in the Ukraine by unknown conspirators in league with Hillary.
You have to be brain dead to give that conspiracy theory any credence, so it is of course widely accepted in TrumpWorld's Alternate Reality and has been proven in TrumpWorld's Alternate reality with fake documents and no evidence. Identifies the man who ran pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign that helped Trump deny Russian links: ComputerWeekly.Com.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper will no longer comply with impeachment inquiry The inquiry involves Trump's decision to withhold military aid approved by Congress for Ukraine. Trump's minions are refusing to comply with congressional subpoenas.
Fake video of Trump shooting media doesn't violate YouTube's rules, company tells CNN; Fake video of Donald Trump shooting his critics and the news media shown at his resort according to New York Times
A local Nashville TV reporter Nancy Amons grilled Mike Pompeo about Ukraine. He accused her of working for the DNC.; Secretary of State Pompeo Grilled By Local Reporter in Testy Interview
2014 photograph shows earlier ties between Trump and indicted Giuliani associate
Lawyer: probe of Giuliani business dealings began early 2019
Federal investigation of Rudy Giuliani includes counterintelligence probe
Fourth suspect surrenders in campaign finance probe involving Giuliani associates
Barr can obstruct and squash investigations by the DOJ except in the Southern District of New York (SDNY). Any attempt by him to squash an investigation for political reasons in that district would result in a criminal charge for obstruction of justice filed against him. Do New York prosecutors pose the greatest threat to Donald Trump? | US news | The Guardian
Trump threatens to sue top Democrats Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi; Trump takes his stump speech to the Values Voter Summit - POLITICO Donald uses baseless litigation and threats of frivolous litigation to browbeat his critics. I am not surprised that Donald made these threats and other pugnacious remarks at the self-described "Values Voter Summit". Donald is the personification of their "conservative christian values".
Giuliani Is Said to Be Under Investigation for Ukraine Work
White House accidentally sends Ukraine talking points to Democrats again
Flurry of Trump Falsehoods - FactCheck.org
Trump Wrong on U.S. Agriculture Exports to China - FactCheck.org
Lying all of the time is one of Trump's "conservative" values.
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNN
Trump and the RNC broke the previous record by raising $125M in the 2019 third quarter.
Ex-special ops commander: 'Our republic is under attack from the president'; Opinion | Our Republic Is Under Attack From the President - The New York Times (written by Admiral McRaven, the former commander of the United States Special Operations Command) Donald is not alone in that attack. He has a 90% approval rating among republicans, a clear majority of whom view him as both honest and a role model for their children. Some polls have recently shown a slight decline in Trump's approval rating among republicans to 85%.
When was the last time you had to flash an ID to buy groceries: Trump says again that Americans need ID to buy groceries. They still don't
Trump campaign threatens to sue CNN, citing Project Veritas videos | TheHill I am hoping that Charles Harder files his lawsuit, that it receives a quick and more than justified burial by a court, and then hopefully CNN would file a malicious prosecution civil suit against Harder (requires that a lawsuit be dismissed and lack probable cause for filing).
Trump's In Your Face Corruption:
Donald is becoming more brazen by the day. Shrugging off allegations of self-dealing, Trump picks his Doral resort for the JUNE G-7 summit-POLITICO Trump has awarded next year’s G-7 summit to his Doral resort - The Washington Post
Republican politicians do not see anything wrong with Donald awarding himself a federal contract worth millions and requiring foreigners to patronize his resort. They have expressly voiced approval of this latest act of corruption or remained silent which is the equivalent of approval.
Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) believes the opaque decision making progress that led to Doral's selection showed "tremendous integrity". According to Cramer there is "tremendous integrity" in Trump's Decision to Host G7 at his own Property So at least we know what republicans view as "tremendous integrity", though it does make me wonder what mere "integrity" will involve.
Donald owes a lot of money secured by the Doral Resort that is floundering. June is also the slowest month of the year for that resort. Business at Trump's Doral club is declining - The Washington Post (Donald reportedly bought the resort for $150M using $125M of borrowed funds from the only lender who would loan him money-Deutsche Bank; club revenue declined 18% between 2015-2017 with a 53% occupancy rate in 2017)
Hotel properties have a lot of fixed costs which can cause loses to skyrocket in a month where the facility would have less than 50% occupancy.
Profits down at President Trump’s Miami hotel, the Doral | Miami Herald
#BedBugSummit Trends After Allegation of Infestation at Trump's Doral Resort Resurfaces Ahead of G7 Summit
++
Donald, Giuliani and Ukraine:
Gallup survey finds 52% support for impeachment
Trump's Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney: Trump mentioned to "me in the past the corruption related to the DNC server? Absolutely. No question about that. But that’s it, that’s why we held up the money.”
As with other republicans, Mulvaney claimed this was “absolutely appropriate.”
What he meant to say was that it was "absolutely appropriate" when done by a republican President and an impeachable offense when done by a Democrat President.
Mulvaney brashly admits quid pro quo over Ukraine aid as key details emerge Mulvaney wants to tie the quid pro quo to an investigation of matters relating to the 2016 election, even though Trump clearly told Zelensky that he wanted an investigation into the Bidens and into the 2016 election. The quid pro quo is present in the summary of that call. Zelensky mentioned military aid and then Trump immediately said he wanted a favor from Ukraine.
Shortly after admitting there was a "quid pro quo", Mulvaney issued a written statement claiming that his clear quid pro quo statements were misconstrued by the Fake News Media and his statements made on tape were part of their witch hunt.
What he actually said was that there was no quid pro quo according to Mulvaney's instant revisionist history. Mulvaney Denies Admitting Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine Military Aid I guess the tape of his admission was altered by the Lugenpresse. The Alt-Right Has Adopted An Old Nazi Term For Reporters
Crowdstrike: The Truth About Trump’s Insane Ukraine ‘Server’ Conspiracy;
Trump seized on a conspiracy theory called the 'insurance policy.' Now, it's at the center of an impeachment investigation.
How a Fringe Theory About Ukraine Took Root in the White House - The New York Times;
Why Trump asked Ukraine’s president about ‘CrowdStrike’ - The Washington Post
“They Read the Headline and Just Ran With It”: How MAGA Media Built the Ukraine Story That’s Become Trump’s Last Line of Defense | Vanity Fair;
Trump staff warned in vain that Ukraine conspiracy was false: ABC, NYT - Business Insider
This bizarre conspiracy theory was probably hatched by Russian intelligence in an effort to undermine U.S. intelligence agencies and to distract from actual proof that Russia interfered in the 2016 election. Trump and Barr are cooperating with that effort.
The goal, shared by Donald and Putin, is to manufacture a story that it was Hillary who hacked into the DNC server with Ukraine's help rather than Russian intelligence as part of their U.S. election interference campaign to help Donald win the election. Part of this conspiracy theory is that the DNC server is being secreted somewhere in the Ukraine by unknown conspirators in league with Hillary.
You have to be brain dead to give that conspiracy theory any credence, so it is of course widely accepted in TrumpWorld's Alternate Reality and has been proven in TrumpWorld's Alternate reality with fake documents and no evidence. Identifies the man who ran pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign that helped Trump deny Russian links: ComputerWeekly.Com.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper will no longer comply with impeachment inquiry The inquiry involves Trump's decision to withhold military aid approved by Congress for Ukraine. Trump's minions are refusing to comply with congressional subpoenas.
Fake video of Trump shooting media doesn't violate YouTube's rules, company tells CNN; Fake video of Donald Trump shooting his critics and the news media shown at his resort according to New York Times
A local Nashville TV reporter Nancy Amons grilled Mike Pompeo about Ukraine. He accused her of working for the DNC.; Secretary of State Pompeo Grilled By Local Reporter in Testy Interview
2014 photograph shows earlier ties between Trump and indicted Giuliani associate
Lawyer: probe of Giuliani business dealings began early 2019
Federal investigation of Rudy Giuliani includes counterintelligence probe
Fourth suspect surrenders in campaign finance probe involving Giuliani associates
Barr can obstruct and squash investigations by the DOJ except in the Southern District of New York (SDNY). Any attempt by him to squash an investigation for political reasons in that district would result in a criminal charge for obstruction of justice filed against him. Do New York prosecutors pose the greatest threat to Donald Trump? | US news | The Guardian
Trump threatens to sue top Democrats Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi; Trump takes his stump speech to the Values Voter Summit - POLITICO Donald uses baseless litigation and threats of frivolous litigation to browbeat his critics. I am not surprised that Donald made these threats and other pugnacious remarks at the self-described "Values Voter Summit". Donald is the personification of their "conservative christian values".
Giuliani Is Said to Be Under Investigation for Ukraine Work
White House accidentally sends Ukraine talking points to Democrats again
Those Foreign Business Ties? The Trump Sons Have Plenty: NYT
Trump campaign manager calls impeachment inquiry a 'seditious conspiracy' Just another guy living in an Alternate Reality devoid of facts, reason and common sense. He is extremely adept at finding those who are susceptible to believing reality creations and then reaching them with targeted social media.
++
Donald-"All Roads Lead to Putin":
Putin has been enjoying a bonanza of gifts from Donald.
Pelosi knows how to get under Donald's razor thin skin.
Referring to Donald's impulsive decision to abandon the Kurds, which plays into Russia's hands, Pelosi stated that "all roads with you lead to Putin".
Trump's 'meltdown' apparently started when Pelosi told him 'all roads with you lead to Putin';
Nancy Pelosi Reportedly Told Donald Trump ‘All Roads With You Lead To Putin,’ Setting Off A ‘Meltdown’
With Donald, some roads, not all, lead to Putin.
Trump told 6 Syria falsehoods in only 4 minutes - Vox
Costs of Trump's "Strategically Brilliant" Mideast Retreat | Time
Trump’s supporters back his decision to pull out of northern Syria; Leader of Syrian Kurds tells US "you are leaving us to be slaughtered"
Trump dismisses Turkey's invasion of Syria: 'It's not our border'
House condemns Trump’s Syria withdrawal (354 to 60; all of the no votes were republicans; 129 republicans voted to condemn; Final Vote Results for Roll Call 560)
Donald sent the following subliterate, batshit letter to President Erdogan after Turkey invaded northern Syria.
Before Donald became President, it was impossible to even imagine a U.S. President sending this kind of letter to a foreign leader. “Is This Real?”: Trump Sends Third-Grade Reading-Level Letter to Erdoğan | Vanity Fair
I am curious whether the Kurdish leader consented to his mortal enemy being given his confidential communication delivered to the U.S. and what Donald has done for Turkey "to solve some" of its "problems". Trump business and financial interests in Turkey: hotel, Trump Towers - Business Insider
Never fear, Donald has "great and unmatched wisdom". I know that it is true because the Duck himself said so:
Trump's Syria letter reportedly made Erdogan so angry, he threw it in the trash
Trump 'doesn't know what he's doing or talking about': Brett McGurk (former special Presidential envoy to the The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS)
Pence announces Syria ceasefire that appears to give Turkey everything it wants; In ‘Cave-In,’ Trump Cease-Fire Cements Turkey’s Gains in Syria - The New York Times
Pence negotiated a cease fire that will last a few hours, gave Turkey part of Syria's territory formerly occupied by the Kurds, and removed U.S. sanctions against Turkey. Donald called that U.S. capitulation the greatest deal ever made by the U.S. (maybe a tad short of the best deal ever):
Trump: “I’m happy to report tremendous success with respect to Turkey. This is an amazing outcome. This is an outcome, regardless of how the press would like to damp it down, this was something they were trying to get for 10 years.” (beyond asinine) It is an amazing outcome for Putin.
Yesterday, I was watching TV when Donald claimed that the cease fire agreement with Turkey was working perfectly and one of the greatest accomplishments ever. Trump says Turkey's attacks on Kurds were "eliminated quickly" by ceasefire - YouTube The telecast switched to show Turkey shelling Kurdish civilians and launching what is allegedly chemical weapons attacks on the Kurds. Turkish forces allegedly burn Kurdish boy with white phosphorus; UN investigates alleged use of white phosphorus in Syria | World news | The Guardian; Turkey Accused of War Crimes After Suspected White Phosphorus Use Against Kurds in Syria; Not a cease-fire': How the Trump administration 'capitulated' to Turkey
Republicans approve of President Trump’s moves in Syria, most Americans do not | YouGov
Fact check: Trump nonsensically claims other presidents had tried to make his Turkey deal for '10 years' or '15 years'
Syria 'ceasefire': Clashes continue despite US-brokered deal with Turkey - CNN
After attacks by Turkey, Trump falsely claims Kurds in Syria are much safer now | PolitiFact
Trump Is Being Impeached Because He Keeps Helping Russia That will not cause a single republican senator to vote for conviction. All republican senators would vote to convict a democrat President who committed the same acts. The only explanation is that hypocrisy must be genetic.
Example: Partisan bias and public opinion on Trump’s Syria strike - The Washington Post Syria used chemical weapons against its population and both Obama and Trump responded with a limited cruise missile strikes. 86% of the republicans approved of Donald hitting Syria with a few cruise missiles in response to its chemical weapons attack, while only 22% of republicans supported Obama doing the exact same thing. The Democrat support was consistent at 37%-38% for both. "For a great many Republicans, the difference between 2013 and 2017 was largely a matter of who was in the White House. They were unwilling to support a strike by a Democratic president, but far more enthusiastic about a very similar (except possibly more risky) action by a Republican one."
Trump campaign manager calls impeachment inquiry a 'seditious conspiracy' Just another guy living in an Alternate Reality devoid of facts, reason and common sense. He is extremely adept at finding those who are susceptible to believing reality creations and then reaching them with targeted social media.
++
Putin has been enjoying a bonanza of gifts from Donald.
Pelosi knows how to get under Donald's razor thin skin.
Referring to Donald's impulsive decision to abandon the Kurds, which plays into Russia's hands, Pelosi stated that "all roads with you lead to Putin".
Trump's 'meltdown' apparently started when Pelosi told him 'all roads with you lead to Putin';
Nancy Pelosi Reportedly Told Donald Trump ‘All Roads With You Lead To Putin,’ Setting Off A ‘Meltdown’
With Donald, some roads, not all, lead to Putin.
Trump told 6 Syria falsehoods in only 4 minutes - Vox
Costs of Trump's "Strategically Brilliant" Mideast Retreat | Time
Trump’s supporters back his decision to pull out of northern Syria; Leader of Syrian Kurds tells US "you are leaving us to be slaughtered"
Trump dismisses Turkey's invasion of Syria: 'It's not our border'
House condemns Trump’s Syria withdrawal (354 to 60; all of the no votes were republicans; 129 republicans voted to condemn; Final Vote Results for Roll Call 560)
Donald sent the following subliterate, batshit letter to President Erdogan after Turkey invaded northern Syria.
Before Donald became President, it was impossible to even imagine a U.S. President sending this kind of letter to a foreign leader. “Is This Real?”: Trump Sends Third-Grade Reading-Level Letter to Erdoğan | Vanity Fair
I am curious whether the Kurdish leader consented to his mortal enemy being given his confidential communication delivered to the U.S. and what Donald has done for Turkey "to solve some" of its "problems". Trump business and financial interests in Turkey: hotel, Trump Towers - Business Insider
Never fear, Donald has "great and unmatched wisdom". I know that it is true because the Duck himself said so:
Trump's Syria letter reportedly made Erdogan so angry, he threw it in the trash
Trump 'doesn't know what he's doing or talking about': Brett McGurk (former special Presidential envoy to the The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS)
Pence announces Syria ceasefire that appears to give Turkey everything it wants; In ‘Cave-In,’ Trump Cease-Fire Cements Turkey’s Gains in Syria - The New York Times
Pence negotiated a cease fire that will last a few hours, gave Turkey part of Syria's territory formerly occupied by the Kurds, and removed U.S. sanctions against Turkey. Donald called that U.S. capitulation the greatest deal ever made by the U.S. (maybe a tad short of the best deal ever):
Trump: “I’m happy to report tremendous success with respect to Turkey. This is an amazing outcome. This is an outcome, regardless of how the press would like to damp it down, this was something they were trying to get for 10 years.” (beyond asinine) It is an amazing outcome for Putin.
Yesterday, I was watching TV when Donald claimed that the cease fire agreement with Turkey was working perfectly and one of the greatest accomplishments ever. Trump says Turkey's attacks on Kurds were "eliminated quickly" by ceasefire - YouTube The telecast switched to show Turkey shelling Kurdish civilians and launching what is allegedly chemical weapons attacks on the Kurds. Turkish forces allegedly burn Kurdish boy with white phosphorus; UN investigates alleged use of white phosphorus in Syria | World news | The Guardian; Turkey Accused of War Crimes After Suspected White Phosphorus Use Against Kurds in Syria; Not a cease-fire': How the Trump administration 'capitulated' to Turkey
Republicans approve of President Trump’s moves in Syria, most Americans do not | YouGov
Fact check: Trump nonsensically claims other presidents had tried to make his Turkey deal for '10 years' or '15 years'
Syria 'ceasefire': Clashes continue despite US-brokered deal with Turkey - CNN
After attacks by Turkey, Trump falsely claims Kurds in Syria are much safer now | PolitiFact
Trump Is Being Impeached Because He Keeps Helping Russia That will not cause a single republican senator to vote for conviction. All republican senators would vote to convict a democrat President who committed the same acts. The only explanation is that hypocrisy must be genetic.
Example: Partisan bias and public opinion on Trump’s Syria strike - The Washington Post Syria used chemical weapons against its population and both Obama and Trump responded with a limited cruise missile strikes. 86% of the republicans approved of Donald hitting Syria with a few cruise missiles in response to its chemical weapons attack, while only 22% of republicans supported Obama doing the exact same thing. The Democrat support was consistent at 37%-38% for both. "For a great many Republicans, the difference between 2013 and 2017 was largely a matter of who was in the White House. They were unwilling to support a strike by a Democratic president, but far more enthusiastic about a very similar (except possibly more risky) action by a Republican one."
+++++
1. Small Ball-Income Generation (used commission free trades):
A. Added 10 JCAP at $18.9 and 30 at $18.78:
These purchases, both made below the last reported book value per share, complete my small ball buy "program.". "
Closing Price Yesterday: JCAP $18.90 +$0.01 +0.05%
Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. (JCAP)
Website: Jernigan Capital
SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 10 JCAP at $19.17 (9/14/19)
First Purchase: Item # 3. Bought 50 JCAP at 19.83 (7/27/19 Post)
JCAP Chart as 10/9/19:
JCAP Info as of 10/9/19:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)
Average Cost Per Share (100+ Shares): $19.35
Dividend Yield at Total Cost = 7.23 %
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/19 (before these last 2 purchases)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes when likely dividend reinvestment price is below $20 per share
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19): SEC Filed Press Release; 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19
Book Value Per Share as of 6/30/19 = $19.12
Current and Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends
Recent News:
Since my last discussion, JCAP announced that it had acquired the developers' interest in 6 properties. Jernigan Capital Announces Acquisition of Developers’ Interests in Six Properties and Other Business Updates ("five self-storage facilities underlying its Miami bridge portfolio as well as its Jacksonville 2 development investment. These six properties are all Gen-V, multi-story facilities with a combined 437,343 net rentable square feet, located in strong submarkets in the Miami and Jacksonville MSAs. The current weighted average physical occupancy of the facilities is 73.6%.") The property manager is CubeSmart (CUBE).
This company makes loans to developers to build self-storage properties and has an option to acquire the developer's interest.
Risk Factor Summary: 2018 Annual Report at pages 21- 48
B. Added 30 PFLT at $11.3:
Quote: PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT)
Closing Price Yesterday: PFLT $11.46 -$0.03 -0.26%
SEC Filings
Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/18 (risk summary starts at page 15 and ends at page 30)
Management: External, major negative
Last Discussed: Item # 4 Added 20 PFLT at $11.67-Used Commission Free Trade (6/23/19 Post) I discussed some of the problem loans in that post.
PFLT Chart Since IPO:
PFLT Info Day of Purchase (10/3/19)
Current Position This Account: 81+ Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $11.65
Discount to $13.07 NAV Per Share at $11.65 = -10.86
Given the recent declines in net asset value per share, I would not regard that discount as a meaningful buffer until PFLT quits incinerating assets and starts to increase net asset value per share.
Dividend: Monthly at $.095 per share ($1.14 per share annually)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 9.79%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/16/19
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. Announces Monthly Distribution of $0.095 per Share
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
6/30/19: $13.07
3/21/19: $13.24
12/31/18 $13.66
9/30/18 $13.82
6/30/18: $13.82
9/30/17: $14.10
9/30/16: $14.06
9/30/15: $13.95
9/30/14: $14.40
9/30/13: $14.10
9/30/12: $13.98
IPO April 2011 at $15 (net to company at $13.9 after underwriters' discount and before PFLT expenses related to the offering)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19) :
"As of June 30, 2019, our portfolio totaled $1,072.2 million and consisted of $939.6 million of first lien secured debt (including $121.0 million in PSSL), $34.0 million of second lien secured debt and $98.6 million of preferred and common equity (including $50.7 million in PSSL). Our debt portfolio consisted of 99% variable-rate investments and 1% fixed-rate investments. As of June 30, 2019, we had three portfolio companies on non-accrual, representing 2.3% and 0.8% of our overall portfolio on a cost and fair value basis, respectively. Overall, the portfolio had net unrealized depreciation of $13.9 million."
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2019
Maximum Position This Account: 100 Shares + Shares purchased with dividends (20 shares remaining for open market purchase)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $11.3)
I also own a tiny positions in my IB and Schwab accounts.
C. Added 30 GNL at $19.31 and 10 at $18,84:
Quote:Global Net Lease (GNL)
Closing Price Yesterday: GNL $19.37 +$0.12 0.62%
Website: Global Net Lease
SEC Filings
Basic Information as of 6/30/19:
"At June 30, 2019 the Company's portfolio consisted of 288 net lease properties located in seven countries and is comprised of 28.3 million rentable square feet leased to 119 tenants across 48 industries."
Property Type Diversification | GNL
"As of June 30, 2019, the Company had $178.7 million of cash and cash equivalents. The Company's net debt to enterprise value was 48.0% with an enterprise value of $3.5 billion based on the quarter end closing share price of $19.62 for common stock and $25.50 for the Series A preferred stock, with net debt of $1.7 billion, including $1.3 billion of mortgage debt. . .The Company's total combined debt had a weighted average interest rate of 3.0% resulting in an interest coverage ratio of 4.1 times. Debt maturity increased to 4.6 years as of June 30, 2019 from 3.3 years at June 30, 2018." (footnote cites deleted from quote)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added 10 GNL at $17.28 (1/20/19 Post)
Management: External, a major negative
Dividend: Quarterly at $.5325 ($2.13 annually)
I would call this an at risk dividend given the free cash flow numbers discussed below.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/10/19 (30 shares bought shortly before ex dividend date and 10 shares on the ex dividend date)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Current Position: 114+ shares
Average Cost Per Share = $19.4
Dividend Yield at average cost per share = 10.98%
Chart Since IPO through Day of 30 share Purchase (10/3/19):
GNL Info Day of 30 Share Purchase:
Last Earnings Report Before Purchase (Q/E 6/30/19):
AFFO per diluted share was reported at $.47 per share, down from $.53 in the Q/E 6/30/18. Both of those AFFO numbers are below the quarterly dividend rate. A quarterly dividend cut from $.5325 per share to somewhere between $.4 to $.45 would be prudent IMO. At $.4 and assuming my current total cost per share of $19.45, the dividend yield would then become 8.23%.
SEC Filed Second Quarter Investor Presentation
A. Added 10 JCAP at $18.9 and 30 at $18.78:
Closing Price Yesterday: JCAP $18.90 +$0.01 +0.05%
Quote: Jernigan Capital Inc. (JCAP)
Website: Jernigan Capital
SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 10 JCAP at $19.17 (9/14/19)
First Purchase: Item # 3. Bought 50 JCAP at 19.83 (7/27/19 Post)
JCAP Chart as 10/9/19:
JCAP Info as of 10/9/19:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)
Average Cost Per Share (100+ Shares): $19.35
Dividend Yield at Total Cost = 7.23 %
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/19 (before these last 2 purchases)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes when likely dividend reinvestment price is below $20 per share
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19): SEC Filed Press Release; 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19
Book Value Per Share as of 6/30/19 = $19.12
Current and Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends
Recent News:
Since my last discussion, JCAP announced that it had acquired the developers' interest in 6 properties. Jernigan Capital Announces Acquisition of Developers’ Interests in Six Properties and Other Business Updates ("five self-storage facilities underlying its Miami bridge portfolio as well as its Jacksonville 2 development investment. These six properties are all Gen-V, multi-story facilities with a combined 437,343 net rentable square feet, located in strong submarkets in the Miami and Jacksonville MSAs. The current weighted average physical occupancy of the facilities is 73.6%.") The property manager is CubeSmart (CUBE).
This company makes loans to developers to build self-storage properties and has an option to acquire the developer's interest.
Risk Factor Summary: 2018 Annual Report at pages 21- 48
B. Added 30 PFLT at $11.3:
Closing Price Yesterday: PFLT $11.46 -$0.03 -0.26%
SEC Filings
Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/18 (risk summary starts at page 15 and ends at page 30)
Management: External, major negative
Last Discussed: Item # 4 Added 20 PFLT at $11.67-Used Commission Free Trade (6/23/19 Post) I discussed some of the problem loans in that post.
PFLT Chart Since IPO:
PFLT Info Day of Purchase (10/3/19)
Average Cost Per Share: $11.65
Discount to $13.07 NAV Per Share at $11.65 = -10.86
Given the recent declines in net asset value per share, I would not regard that discount as a meaningful buffer until PFLT quits incinerating assets and starts to increase net asset value per share.
Dividend: Monthly at $.095 per share ($1.14 per share annually)
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 9.79%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/16/19
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. Announces Monthly Distribution of $0.095 per Share
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
6/30/19: $13.07
3/21/19: $13.24
12/31/18 $13.66
9/30/18 $13.82
6/30/18: $13.82
9/30/17: $14.10
9/30/16: $14.06
9/30/15: $13.95
9/30/14: $14.40
9/30/13: $14.10
9/30/12: $13.98
IPO April 2011 at $15 (net to company at $13.9 after underwriters' discount and before PFLT expenses related to the offering)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19) :
"As of June 30, 2019, our portfolio totaled $1,072.2 million and consisted of $939.6 million of first lien secured debt (including $121.0 million in PSSL), $34.0 million of second lien secured debt and $98.6 million of preferred and common equity (including $50.7 million in PSSL). Our debt portfolio consisted of 99% variable-rate investments and 1% fixed-rate investments. As of June 30, 2019, we had three portfolio companies on non-accrual, representing 2.3% and 0.8% of our overall portfolio on a cost and fair value basis, respectively. Overall, the portfolio had net unrealized depreciation of $13.9 million."
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2019
Maximum Position This Account: 100 Shares + Shares purchased with dividends (20 shares remaining for open market purchase)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $11.3)
I also own a tiny positions in my IB and Schwab accounts.
C. Added 30 GNL at $19.31 and 10 at $18,84:
Quote:Global Net Lease (GNL)
Closing Price Yesterday: GNL $19.37 +$0.12 0.62%
Website: Global Net Lease
SEC Filings
Basic Information as of 6/30/19:
"At June 30, 2019 the Company's portfolio consisted of 288 net lease properties located in seven countries and is comprised of 28.3 million rentable square feet leased to 119 tenants across 48 industries."
"As of June 30, 2019, the Company had $178.7 million of cash and cash equivalents. The Company's net debt to enterprise value was 48.0% with an enterprise value of $3.5 billion based on the quarter end closing share price of $19.62 for common stock and $25.50 for the Series A preferred stock, with net debt of $1.7 billion, including $1.3 billion of mortgage debt. . .The Company's total combined debt had a weighted average interest rate of 3.0% resulting in an interest coverage ratio of 4.1 times. Debt maturity increased to 4.6 years as of June 30, 2019 from 3.3 years at June 30, 2018." (footnote cites deleted from quote)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added 10 GNL at $17.28 (1/20/19 Post)
Management: External, a major negative
Dividend: Quarterly at $.5325 ($2.13 annually)
I would call this an at risk dividend given the free cash flow numbers discussed below.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/10/19 (30 shares bought shortly before ex dividend date and 10 shares on the ex dividend date)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Current Position: 114+ shares
Average Cost Per Share = $19.4
Dividend Yield at average cost per share = 10.98%
Chart Since IPO through Day of 30 share Purchase (10/3/19):
GNL Info Day of 30 Share Purchase:
Last Earnings Report Before Purchase (Q/E 6/30/19):
SEC Filed Second Quarter Investor Presentation
Maximum Position: 150 shares + shares purchased with dividends
Purchase Restriction: None, removed from small ball rule restriction
Goal: Harvest dividends and sell at a net profit, no matter how small.
Purchase Restriction: None, removed from small ball rule restriction
Goal: Harvest dividends and sell at a net profit, no matter how small.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A reader mentioned that Goldman Sachs is currently offering a 2.25% one year CD. That was the case on 10/17/19. The rate was lowered to 2.1% on 10/18/19. Online Certificates of Deposit (CDs) | Marcus by Goldman Sachs®
While that rate is better than the one year coupon offered by brokered CDs, it is not sufficiently higher to cause me to open yet another account with a financial institution. The highest coupon currently offered by Fidelity that matures in October 2020 is 1.85%.
The difference in annual interest payments on a $100K CD would be $250 and only $25 for the maximum amount that I would tie up in a CD which is $10K. I simply do not manage my fixed income portfolio by tying up $100K for one year in a CD.
Speaking for myself, the higher rate offered by Goldman Sachs is not tempting enough to open a new account when I already have too many.
If I had just one brokerage account, and nothing else other than a bank checking account, I could see opening an account with GS or some other financial institution that offers higher CD rates than the brokered ones offered by my brokers.
Best CD Rates for October 2019 | Bankrate.com
A reader mentioned that Goldman Sachs is currently offering a 2.25% one year CD. That was the case on 10/17/19. The rate was lowered to 2.1% on 10/18/19. Online Certificates of Deposit (CDs) | Marcus by Goldman Sachs®
While that rate is better than the one year coupon offered by brokered CDs, it is not sufficiently higher to cause me to open yet another account with a financial institution. The highest coupon currently offered by Fidelity that matures in October 2020 is 1.85%.
The difference in annual interest payments on a $100K CD would be $250 and only $25 for the maximum amount that I would tie up in a CD which is $10K. I simply do not manage my fixed income portfolio by tying up $100K for one year in a CD.
Speaking for myself, the higher rate offered by Goldman Sachs is not tempting enough to open a new account when I already have too many.
If I had just one brokerage account, and nothing else other than a bank checking account, I could see opening an account with GS or some other financial institution that offers higher CD rates than the brokered ones offered by my brokers.
Best CD Rates for October 2019 | Bankrate.com
A. Bought 2 Pacific Western 1.9% CDs Maturing on 2/3/20:
Holding Company: PacWest Bancorp (PACW)
B. Bought 2 Treasury 1.5% Coupon Maturing on 5/15/20 (secondary market):
YTM = 1.851%
C. Bought at Auction 2 Treasury 6 month Bills Maturing on 4/2/2020:
IR = 1.842%
Auction Results:
D. Bought at Auction 2 Treasury 3 Month Bills Maturing on 1/2/2020:
IR = 1.879%
Auction Results:
The interest will be reportable when the bill matures, representing the difference between the par value and the cost ($9.3 for this two 3 month bill purchase). That assumes the bill is held to maturity.
E. Bought 3 Valley National 1.85% CDs Maturing on 4/9/20 (6 months):
F. Bought at Auction 10 Treasury Bills 58 Day Maturing on 12/3/19:
1.743%IR
Auction Results:
F. Bought at Auction 10 Treasury Bills 58 Day Maturing on 12/3/19:
1.743%IR
Auction Results:
The 1.75% IR for a 2 month T Bill is probably the lowest yield that I will accept. So I will need to find something else to buy with the proceeds from maturing securities or will simply allow my cash to build up until opportunities arise.
3. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
I sold two low yielding Centerpoint bond held in separate accounts.
I am transitioning to the higher yielding common stock using the small ball trading rules.
I still own 1 bond: Item 1.C. Bought 1 CNP GM Bond (IB Account) at a TC of 96.762.
A. Sold 1 Centerpoint 2.4% General Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/2026-In a Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: $36.42
Item # 1.C. Bought 1 CNP 2.4% GM at a Total Cost of 95.726 (5/17/17)
Issuer: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP)
Bought 5/3/17
History:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Sold at 100.58
YTM at 100.58 = 2.305%
B. Sold 1 Centerpoint 2.4% General Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/2026:
Profit Snapshot: $34.67
Bought 4/18/2017
History:
Sold at 100.52
YTM at 100.52 = 2.315%
4. Added 50 FOMX at $2.6-commission free trade:
Quote: Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (FOMX)
Website: Overview | Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
FOMX SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19
Closing Price Yesterday: FOMX $3.155 -$0.0850 -2.62% (halted during regular hours for news pending, see below)
Recent SA Article: Foamix Pharmaceuticals: Managing My Position Around FMX101's PDUFA-Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (NASDAQ:FOMX) | Seeking Alpha As of today, this article is not yet behind SA's paywall.
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (extreme risk)
This last purchase was an average down. Item # 3.B. Bought 30 FOMX at $5.66 and 20 at $5.25-Used Commission Free Trades(9/19/18 Post)
FOMX Info Day of Purchase:
Current Position: 100 shares
Average Cost Per Share = $4.05 (viewed as too high)
FOMX Chart Since IPO: Ugly
Pipeline:
Note that FOMX has two new drug applications pending before the FDA.
Yesterday, FMX101 was approved by the FDA: Foamix Receives FDA Approval of AMZEEQ™ Topical Minocycline Treatment for Millions of Moderate to Severe Acne Sufferers ("AMZEEQ, formerly known as FMX101, is indicated for the treatment of inflammatory lesions of non-nodular moderate to severe acne vulgaris in adults and pediatric patients 9 years of age and older and is the first topical minocycline to be approved by the FDA for any condition.")
I believe that this approval was largely expected by those following this company.
In addition, the FDA accepted last week a new drug application for FMX103 which has a PDUFA date of 6/2/2020: Foamix Announces FDA Acceptance of its New Drug Application for FMX103 Minocycline Foam for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Papulopustular Rosacea
Both of those news events occurred after my last purchase.
I would add a word of caution about the FDA's approval of FMX101.
Small biotech stocks with no history of manufacturing and marketing a newly approved drug are frequently unsuccessful in achieving profitability when the drug has competition from financially strong companies. The money pit related to the drug trials becomes larger when the company tries to manufacture, distribute and market the drug.
The current price reflects a lack of optimism that FMX101 and FMX103 will be be successful.
There may be concern as well about the intellectual property protection. I offer no opinion on that issue. Minocycline has been around for over 50 years and was originally patented in 1961. Foamix came up with a formulation that permits this antibiotic to be applied directly to the skin rather than taken in pill form. Minocycline for Acne Treatment: Benefits, Dosage, and Side Effects
This company needs to sell itself IMO.
Other Recent News:
Foamix Announces Issuance of New U.S. Patent Covering A Method of Treating Acne that Expires in 2037
Foamix Reports Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update
Foamix Submits New Drug Application to U.S. FDA for FMX103 for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Papulopustular Rosace
Foamix Announces Publication of Phase 3 FMX101 Acne Study in Journal of American Academy of Dermatology
Foamix Announces $64 Million Capital Financing Investment by Perceptive Advisors and OrbiMed ($14M comes from a direct purchase of common stock)
3. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
I sold two low yielding Centerpoint bond held in separate accounts.
I am transitioning to the higher yielding common stock using the small ball trading rules.
I still own 1 bond: Item 1.C. Bought 1 CNP GM Bond (IB Account) at a TC of 96.762.
A. Sold 1 Centerpoint 2.4% General Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/2026-In a Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: $36.42
Item # 1.C. Bought 1 CNP 2.4% GM at a Total Cost of 95.726 (5/17/17)
Issuer: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP)
Bought 5/3/17
History:
Sold at 100.58
YTM at 100.58 = 2.305%
B. Sold 1 Centerpoint 2.4% General Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/2026:
Profit Snapshot: $34.67
Bought 4/18/2017
History:
Sold at 100.52
YTM at 100.52 = 2.315%
4. Added 50 FOMX at $2.6-commission free trade:
Quote: Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (FOMX)
Website: Overview | Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
FOMX SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19
Closing Price Yesterday: FOMX $3.155 -$0.0850 -2.62% (halted during regular hours for news pending, see below)
Recent SA Article: Foamix Pharmaceuticals: Managing My Position Around FMX101's PDUFA-Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (NASDAQ:FOMX) | Seeking Alpha As of today, this article is not yet behind SA's paywall.
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (extreme risk)
This last purchase was an average down. Item # 3.B. Bought 30 FOMX at $5.66 and 20 at $5.25-Used Commission Free Trades(9/19/18 Post)
FOMX Info Day of Purchase:
Current Position: 100 shares
Average Cost Per Share = $4.05 (viewed as too high)
FOMX Chart Since IPO: Ugly
Pipeline:
Note that FOMX has two new drug applications pending before the FDA.
Yesterday, FMX101 was approved by the FDA: Foamix Receives FDA Approval of AMZEEQ™ Topical Minocycline Treatment for Millions of Moderate to Severe Acne Sufferers ("AMZEEQ, formerly known as FMX101, is indicated for the treatment of inflammatory lesions of non-nodular moderate to severe acne vulgaris in adults and pediatric patients 9 years of age and older and is the first topical minocycline to be approved by the FDA for any condition.")
I believe that this approval was largely expected by those following this company.
In addition, the FDA accepted last week a new drug application for FMX103 which has a PDUFA date of 6/2/2020: Foamix Announces FDA Acceptance of its New Drug Application for FMX103 Minocycline Foam for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Papulopustular Rosacea
Both of those news events occurred after my last purchase.
I would add a word of caution about the FDA's approval of FMX101.
Small biotech stocks with no history of manufacturing and marketing a newly approved drug are frequently unsuccessful in achieving profitability when the drug has competition from financially strong companies. The money pit related to the drug trials becomes larger when the company tries to manufacture, distribute and market the drug.
The current price reflects a lack of optimism that FMX101 and FMX103 will be be successful.
There may be concern as well about the intellectual property protection. I offer no opinion on that issue. Minocycline has been around for over 50 years and was originally patented in 1961. Foamix came up with a formulation that permits this antibiotic to be applied directly to the skin rather than taken in pill form. Minocycline for Acne Treatment: Benefits, Dosage, and Side Effects
This company needs to sell itself IMO.
Other Recent News:
Foamix Announces Issuance of New U.S. Patent Covering A Method of Treating Acne that Expires in 2037
Foamix Reports Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update
Foamix Submits New Drug Application to U.S. FDA for FMX103 for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Papulopustular Rosace
Foamix Announces Publication of Phase 3 FMX101 Acne Study in Journal of American Academy of Dermatology
Foamix Announces $64 Million Capital Financing Investment by Perceptive Advisors and OrbiMed ($14M comes from a direct purchase of common stock)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Earlier this morning, the British Parliament voted 322 to 306 for an amendment to delay voting on Johnson's Brexit deal until after Parliament passes a law implementing it.
ReplyDeleteThe amendment was apparently offered at the last minute by a member, Oliver Letwin, who would have voted for Johnson's plan.
This would indicate to me that the proposal would have been defeated and the amendment was offered to avoid that outcome.
The purported reason for offering the amendment was to secure an "insurance policy which prevents the UK from crashing out on 31 October by mistake if something goes wrong during the passage of the implementing legislation”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/johnson-defiant-after-british-parliament-votes-to-force-brexit-delay-idUSKBN1WX2M2
Whatever the underlying motives may be for delaying a substantive vote, Johnson claims that he will have legislation ready for a vote next week.
Since no Brexit legislation was passed today, Johnson must ask the EU to extend the deadline from 10/31/19 to 1/31/20.
The EU has been allowing the U.K. to continuously kick the can further into the future. If the U.K. votes down implementing legislation next week, I would see no good reason why the EU would extend the deadline beyond 10/31. The Brexit vote occurred over 3 years ago.
With either a soft or hard Brexit, the U.K. economy will suffer after leaving the EU.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/18/johnsons-brexit-deal-is-worse-for-the-uk-economy-than-mays-research-suggests.html
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/17/business/uk-economy-brexit-deal/index.html
This all will hurt the UK economy but also EU's... but the stock jocks will see this as good news? Then when there's no crash out, it will be considered resolved...
DeleteThat's what it sounds like.
Land: For the U.S. economy, the Stock Jocks do not appear to be concern whether the Brexit is hard or soft. Both will lead to adverse economic impacts in Europe that may have some negative implications for the consumer based U.S. economy, but no one knows the decree.
DeleteFor the Stock Jocks, the focus appears to be looking at each event in isolation from all others that is coupled with a belief that all disputes will successfully be resolved since that is the rational result for all interested parties.
The third quarter earnings reports have so far been net positive with a few disappointments. U.S. Consumer spending is still propping up the economy, real GDP is still growing at close to a 2% annual rate, interest rates are abnormally low and inflation is tame.
The economy is slowing however. I believe that the economy is now vulnerable to entering into a recession and FF rate cuts will not help.
Job growth is slowing. Importantly, consumer concerns about a recession developing are increasing.
Manufacturing data is already pointing to a worldwide contraction in that sector. The trade wars are contributing to that result.
Brexit is just factor among many that has or will have a piling on effect, none of which would be sufficient to cause a recession during an existing slowdown in isolation from all of the others, but could have that result in the aggregate.
Interesting stuff. If earnings are good in a low interest environment, a recession won't be that soon. Consumers tend to be slow to stop buying.
DeleteBut it's not a clean bill of health either with the indicators of slowing. Plus that pesky inversion.
Covanta Holding Corp
ReplyDelete$15.71 -1.365 -8.00%
Last Updated: Oct 22, 2019 at 10:07 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cva
I recently discussed starting a small ball "buying program" for CVA and added 10 shares this morning at $15.62.
Raymond James downgraded its recommendation two notches from strong buy to market perform. That is all that I know about that report. I do not have access to it.
I did a google search limited to the past 24 hours and could not find any other news that would contribute to the decline today.
The 10 share buy, which is commission free now at Fidelity, brings me up to 60 shares at an average cost per share of $16.46.
The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 10/24.
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/569481/covanta-cva-earnings-expected-to-grow-what-to-know-ahead-of-next-weeks-release?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID01-txt-569481
Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
ReplyDelete$281.69 +58.18 +26.03%
Last Updated: Oct 22, 2019 at 10:53 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/biib
The rise today is based on BIIB's earnings report and its plan to file a NDA for aducanumab, which treats early stage Alzheimers.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biogens-stock-rockets-after-earnings-beat-alzheimers-treatment-heads-for-regulatory-approval-process-2019-10-22?mod=mw_quote_news
I do not own BIIB shares directly but it is component in health care funds that I do own.
E.G.
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB)
$106.01 +$2.43 +2.35%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ibb
4.03% weighting in IBB
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239699/
++
Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (FOMX)
$3.01 -$0.245 -7.54%
Last Updated: Oct 22, 2019 at 11:02 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fomx
In this post, I discussed adding to my Lottery Ticket position with a 50 share buy at $2.6.
That buy was made before the FDA approved the acne treatment drug discussed in this post.
The stock barely budged after the uncertainty about approval was removed. That indicated to me that the enthusiasm for this drug was practically non-existent, so it was not surprising to see a decline today after that tepid reaction to the FDA approval.
The H.C. Wainwright analyst did raise his price target to $11 from $10 but I doubt that this analyst carries any weight among those who determine the share price. That brokerage firm tends to be overly optimistic on small drug company stocks.
So far today, the volume is over 1.85+M with the average daily at 1.05M. Yesterday, the volume was 5.738+M, indicating that some larger investors are selling after the approval.
Hedge funds are among the major holders:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOMX/holders?p=FOMX
The stock market decline today started around the time Boris Johnson lost a vote to fast track a decision on his Brexit plan. He apparently released today a 115 page piece of implementing legislation but refused to prepare a meaningful economic analysis of the plan's impact on the U.K. economy. That is just part of the deception that Johnson has practiced in reference to Brexit.
ReplyDeletehttps://qz.com/1733190/what-will-brexit-cost-a-government-report-gives-few-answers/
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-refuse-release-impact-assessment-brexit-deal-sajid-javid-2019-10
Johnson wanted a vote within 3 days.
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William Taylor stuck a dagger in the argument of no quid pro quo. He is a credible witness and gave a detailed account in his testimony today of how Trump linked military aid to the Ukraine investigating the Bidens.
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/22/772127564/democrats-say-ambassador-william-taylors-testimony-on-ukraine-is-disturbing
While Trump and his allies have denied that happened it is obvious IMO that Trump linked Ukraine's military aid to an investigation of the Bidens.
Taylor's testimony may cost Trump a couple of republican votes in the Senate. It is 100% certain that the House will pass one or more Articles of Impeachment.
I doubt that the stock market's decline into the close had anything to do with that testimony. While Trump has maintained that the economy and stock market would crash without him as President, the truth of the matter is that the stock market would rally if he would just resign and allow Pence to become President, which is not going to happen.
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The DJ News Service ran a brief story about why Raymond James downgraded Covanta. The downgrade was "in part due to softer commodity prices, specifically for scrap metal and electricity". The analyst was reportedly "worried" that the cash flow estimates for 2020 were too high.
I ended up averaging down today with two 10 share lots and will wait until the earnings report is released before making a decision on further purchases. I now own 70 shares.
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I have been selling into the rally so far this week, though it is selective small ball trading sells where I mostly sold the highest cost lots to reduce my average cost per share.
With the advent of commission free trading at two of my brokers, I am likely to go into a hyper trading period, unwilling to buy much of anything now except for a possible short term trade and dividend harvest. Today, for example, I sold my highest cost lots in TRST at $8.6 and my highest cost lot in the ETF IDV at $32.05.
The earnings reports are turning more mixed from mostly positive.
Texas Instruments offered a gloomy outlook after the close:
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
After Hours
$115.90 -$12.67 -9.85%
Last Updated: Oct 22, 2019 at 6:05 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/texas-instruments-stock-drops-after-weak-outlook-drags-on-chip-sector-after-hours-2019-10-22?mod=mw_quote_news
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_23.html