Economy:
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative energized the Stock Jocks yesterday with this announcement: China and the U.S. "made headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement".
I am assuming that the reference is to a Phase 1 agreement, where the parties agreed in principal to some terms pending conversion of the generalities into a detailed agreement. The sections that are close to being finalized are not identified and nothing is specifically represented about the status of the other sections that are apparently not "close to finalizing".
China put some meat on the vague statement made by the USTR. The sections that were close to finalization were technical and involved the U.S. importation of China's cooked poultry and catfish and China's importation of U.S. poultry. There was also an agreement on establishing public health information systems for meat products. Tech consultations on parts of U.S. trade deal completed: China's Commerce Ministry - Reuters If the forgoing topics were what the USTR was talking about in its Friday release, then the intention was to mislead investors IMO.
Trump advisor Navarro fighting 'Phase One' of China trade deal: sources Even if that is true, I doubt that Navarro has the power to undermine a recommendation joined in by both Mnuchin and Lighthizer.
So, is everybody going to eliminate their tariffs anytime soon even if this Phase 1 agreement is signed and what exactly are the topics where a detailed agreement is not close?
September New Home Sales: -.7 below August but up 15.5% Y-O-Y
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative energized the Stock Jocks yesterday with this announcement: China and the U.S. "made headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement".
I am assuming that the reference is to a Phase 1 agreement, where the parties agreed in principal to some terms pending conversion of the generalities into a detailed agreement. The sections that are close to being finalized are not identified and nothing is specifically represented about the status of the other sections that are apparently not "close to finalizing".
China put some meat on the vague statement made by the USTR. The sections that were close to finalization were technical and involved the U.S. importation of China's cooked poultry and catfish and China's importation of U.S. poultry. There was also an agreement on establishing public health information systems for meat products. Tech consultations on parts of U.S. trade deal completed: China's Commerce Ministry - Reuters If the forgoing topics were what the USTR was talking about in its Friday release, then the intention was to mislead investors IMO.
Trump advisor Navarro fighting 'Phase One' of China trade deal: sources Even if that is true, I doubt that Navarro has the power to undermine a recommendation joined in by both Mnuchin and Lighthizer.
So, is everybody going to eliminate their tariffs anytime soon even if this Phase 1 agreement is signed and what exactly are the topics where a detailed agreement is not close?
September New Home Sales: -.7 below August but up 15.5% Y-O-Y
Weekly mortgage applications tank 12% as interest rates jump This is noteworthy in the size of the decline in relation to the .1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate to 4.02%. This indicates that new and existing home sales will be hyper sensitive to small change in interest rates due to the increase in home prices.
Federal Reserve economist says growth would have been better with negative interest rates
Federal Reserve economist says growth would have been better with negative interest rates
German economy continues to struggle with manufacturing troubles spreading to services - MarketWatch
US durable goods orders - September 2019: Orders fall 1.1%
Architecture Billings Index downturn moderates as challenging conditions continue - AIA
US durable goods orders - September 2019: Orders fall 1.1%
Architecture Billings Index downturn moderates as challenging conditions continue - AIA
+++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
While the S & P 500 established a new all time high yesterday, the closing price was slightly lower than the all time closing high of 3,025.86 (7/26/19).
Earnings reports continue to be mixed, with the Stocks taking their market clues from the positive ones and ignoring the negative ones except for the effected stocks.
Interest rates rose slightly yesterday.
IEF $111.58 -$0.24 -0.21%: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
There was also a price rotation out of bond like sectors into more economically sensitive ones.
XLU $64.16 -$0.66 -$1.02%: SPDR Utilities ETF
VNQ $94.13 -$0.81 -$0.85%: Vanguard Real Estate ETF
FSTA $36.48 -$0.18 -0.49%: Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples ETF
FTEC $65.58 +$0.78 +1.20%: Fidelity Information Technology ETF
XLE $59.52 +$0.48 +0.81% : SPDR Energy ETF
XLI $78.60 +$0.49 +0.63% : SPDR Industrial ETF
Amazon Q3 profit miss, light holiday sales forecast -Seeking Alpha
Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2019 earnings; Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Sales up 24% to $70.0 Billion In the press release, Amazon emphasized revenues before mentioning its net income number. "Net income decreased to$2.1 billion in the third quarter, or $4.23 per diluted share, compared with net income of $2.9 billion , or $5.75 per diluted share, in third quarter 2018." For the 4th quarter, "Operating income is expected to be between $1.2 billion and $2.9 billion , compared with $3.8 billion in fourth quarter 2018." The 4th quarter consensus estimate was for $4.2B in operating income. None of the foregoing ultimately matters to the Stock Jocks who focus on other metrics besides income and profit. Someday, when we are all dead and gone, it is conceivable that AMZN may report GAAP net income that would justify its current price.
Closing Price 10/15/19: AMZN $1,761.33 -$19.45 -1.09%
Microsoft wins Pentagon’s $10 billion JEDI cloud contract, beating Amazon - MarketWatch Amazon was first awarded the contract in competitive bidding and then Donald complained about it. How could the Defense Department dare award a contract to Amazon whose CEO owns the Washington Post. The DOD thereafter reconsidered its position and then awarded the contract to Microsoft.
According to a recently published book written by a retired Navy commander Guy Snodgrass titled Holding the Line: Inside Trump's Pentagon with Secretary Mattis, Trump wanted to lock Amazon out of this contract since Bezos owned the WP. Mattis told Trump it would be illegal for him to interfere in the bidding process for this contract, but Mattis is gone when the DOD changed its mind to give Donald what he wanted which was to punish Amazon for Bezos owning the WP. This train of events probably needs to be investigated as another egregious abuse of presidential power.
There is no one left in the Trump administration that would be willing to put a speed bump in front of the Duck.
Pentagon puts $10B contract on hold after Trump swipe at Amazon - POLITICO
Intel stock rallies as results, outlook top Street view - MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: INTC $56.46 +$4.23 +8.10%
While the S & P 500 established a new all time high yesterday, the closing price was slightly lower than the all time closing high of 3,025.86 (7/26/19).
Earnings reports continue to be mixed, with the Stocks taking their market clues from the positive ones and ignoring the negative ones except for the effected stocks.
Interest rates rose slightly yesterday.
IEF $111.58 -$0.24 -0.21%: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
There was also a price rotation out of bond like sectors into more economically sensitive ones.
XLU $64.16 -$0.66 -$1.02%: SPDR Utilities ETF
VNQ $94.13 -$0.81 -$0.85%: Vanguard Real Estate ETF
FSTA $36.48 -$0.18 -0.49%: Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples ETF
FTEC $65.58 +$0.78 +1.20%: Fidelity Information Technology ETF
XLE $59.52 +$0.48 +0.81% : SPDR Energy ETF
XLI $78.60 +$0.49 +0.63% : SPDR Industrial ETF
Amazon Q3 profit miss, light holiday sales forecast -Seeking Alpha
Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2019 earnings; Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Sales up 24% to $70.0 Billion In the press release, Amazon emphasized revenues before mentioning its net income number. "Net income decreased to
Closing Price 10/15/19: AMZN $1,761.33 -$19.45 -1.09%
Microsoft wins Pentagon’s $10 billion JEDI cloud contract, beating Amazon - MarketWatch Amazon was first awarded the contract in competitive bidding and then Donald complained about it. How could the Defense Department dare award a contract to Amazon whose CEO owns the Washington Post. The DOD thereafter reconsidered its position and then awarded the contract to Microsoft.
According to a recently published book written by a retired Navy commander Guy Snodgrass titled Holding the Line: Inside Trump's Pentagon with Secretary Mattis, Trump wanted to lock Amazon out of this contract since Bezos owned the WP. Mattis told Trump it would be illegal for him to interfere in the bidding process for this contract, but Mattis is gone when the DOD changed its mind to give Donald what he wanted which was to punish Amazon for Bezos owning the WP. This train of events probably needs to be investigated as another egregious abuse of presidential power.
There is no one left in the Trump administration that would be willing to put a speed bump in front of the Duck.
Pentagon puts $10B contract on hold after Trump swipe at Amazon - POLITICO
Intel stock rallies as results, outlook top Street view - MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: INTC $56.46 +$4.23 +8.10%
Microsoft (MSFT) earnings Q1 2020 (non-GAAP E.P.S. at $1.38 vs. $1.25 consensus)
3M cuts profit forecast after sales miss on slowing Asia demand - Reuters
Closing Price Day of MMM Report: MMM $161.89 -$6.87 -4.07%
McDonalds stock has been falling since it released its earnings report. UPDATE 3-McDonald's misses profit target as competition delivers breakfast, plant burgers
MCD Historical Prices
Ventas disappointed investors due to a 5% contraction in same store net operating income in is senior housing segment. Ventas Reports 2019 Third Quarter Results
Closing Price 10/25/19: VTR $66.00 -$6.47 -8.93%
I do not own VTR's common stock, but I do own some of its senior unsecured bonds after selling several over the past several months.
4 charts show investors are cautiously optimistic amid trade, geopolitical uncertainty, UBS survey finds - MarketWatch
+++++++
Trump:
No recession and a Trump win in 2020: Mark Mobius: Financial News
Trump tax return subpoena case argued in federal appeals court
Trump's lawyer told the appeal court panel that Donald could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue today and could not be arrested, charged or even questioned about it while he was in office. Trump’s lawyer says if Trump shoots someone, “nothing could be done” - Vox
And, it would then follow that Trump could carry out the mass slaughter of his critics and avoid even being questioned or arrested as well.
Then, you also have the republican argument that, if the President does it, it is legal. Nixon When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal - YouTube Trump and his allies agree. A republican President is above the law while a Democrat President could be impeached when lying about an affair (e.g. claiming that oral sex is not sex).
If Trump Shoots Someone on 5th Ave., Does He Have Immunity? His Lawyer Says Yes - The New York Times
Trump to order federal agencies to drop N.Y. Times, Washington Post subscriptions - MarketWatch Both are excellent papers and worth the online annual subscription rate. Demagogue Don, who has strong authoritarian tendencies, hates any media organization that challenges his reality creations with facts which is common characteristic among authoritarian leaders throughout modern history.
Anonymous Trump insider behind N.Y. Times essay now writing a tell-all book - MarketWatch For the next few decades, more information will become public about Donald's Presidency, and the overall picture will be far more negative IMO than anything that has come out to date. I do not believe that this kind of book should be published with an anonymous author however. The author should resign his position and then put his name on the book.
'Powerful woman' Kellyanne Conway mocks and threatens reporter for mentioning her husband (AUDIO)
++
Donald and Ukraine:
White House delayed Ukraine trade decision in August - The Washington Post ("The White House’s trade representative in late August withdrew a recommendation to restore some of Ukraine’s trade privileges after John Bolton, then-national security adviser, warned him that President Trump probably would oppose any action that benefited the government in Kyiv.")
Ukrainian President and advisers discussed pressure from Trump weeks before taking office Two weeks before Zelensky became Ukraine's President, he met with his advisors to discuss how to deal with Trump's pressure to open an investigation into the Bidens. The meeting was on May 7, 2019.
Contradicting Trump, Ukraine Knew of Aid Freeze Before It Became Public ("the Ukrainian government was aware of the freeze during most of the period in August when Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, and two American diplomats were pressing President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to make a public commitment to the investigations being sought by Mr. Trump.")
Donald claims that he was only interested in pressuring Ukraine to crack down on corruption. That is why he fired the ambassador Marie Yovanovitch who had been implementing U.S. anti-corruption efforts and why he cut billions of U.S. funding aimed at fighting corruption in Ukraine and other countries. Former ambassador to Ukraine says she was ousted because of her anti-corruption work - Vox; In Trumpworld, just about everything is turned upside down, true is false, false is true, corruption is anti-corruption, etc.
++
The Impeachment Process as a "Lynching":
The Chief Judge of D.C. federal district courts ruled on Friday that the House's impeachment inquiry was legal. Impeachment Inquiry Is Legal, Judge Rules, Giving Democrats a Victory; 75 Page Decision.pdf (“Even in cases of presidential impeachment, a House resolution has never, in fact, been required to begin an impeachment inquiry.” emphasis added) That will be news to republican tribe members who are being mislead by their political leaders. There is nothing in the House rules or the Constitution that requires a full House vote on an impeachment resolution before starting an investigation.
Senator Graham (R-SC) agreed with Donald that the inquiry was a "lynching". Lindsey Graham agrees, impeachment 'a lnyching in every sense': USA Today
Graham may be channeling the spirit of the deceased South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond who walked out of the 1948 Democrat convention after the party passed a civil rights platform that included a statement opposing lynching. In 1948, Democrats Weathered Civil Rights Divide: NPR
Thurmond thereafter ran for President as a "Dixiecrat" in 1948, carrying four southern states (South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana).
Thurmond and other racist democrats left the Democrat party and joined the republican party. That did not change their racist beliefs but just their party label.
One of Thurmond's best known speeches from his 1948 campaign contained the following statements: "I wanna tell you, ladies and gentlemen, that there's not enough troops in the army to force the Southern people to break down segregation and admit the Nigra race into our theaters, into our swimming pools, into our homes, and into our churches." The legend of Strom's Remorse.
Joe Foot-In-His-Mouth Biden once referred to the Clinton impeachment as a "partisan lnyching". Joe Biden sorry for 'lynching' remark about Bill Clinton impeachment
Maybe Hapless Joe was channeling the Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who claimed he was being lynched when the democrats decided to investigate Anita Hill's sexual misconduct charges against Thomas. Clarence Thomas High-Tech Lynching - YouTube Biden was the Chairman of the Senate committee that held the Thomas hearings.
It is interesting that Trump will be impeached by the House because he pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden who will more likely than not fall by the wayside during primary season which would have happened without Trump trying to smear him with made up conspiracy theories.
+++
Trump and the Kurds:
Kremlin says U.S. betrayed Kurds in Syria, tells Kurds to withdraw or be mauled
No recession and a Trump win in 2020: Mark Mobius: Financial News
Trump tax return subpoena case argued in federal appeals court
Trump's lawyer told the appeal court panel that Donald could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue today and could not be arrested, charged or even questioned about it while he was in office. Trump’s lawyer says if Trump shoots someone, “nothing could be done” - Vox
And, it would then follow that Trump could carry out the mass slaughter of his critics and avoid even being questioned or arrested as well.
Then, you also have the republican argument that, if the President does it, it is legal. Nixon When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal - YouTube Trump and his allies agree. A republican President is above the law while a Democrat President could be impeached when lying about an affair (e.g. claiming that oral sex is not sex).
If Trump Shoots Someone on 5th Ave., Does He Have Immunity? His Lawyer Says Yes - The New York Times
Trump to order federal agencies to drop N.Y. Times, Washington Post subscriptions - MarketWatch Both are excellent papers and worth the online annual subscription rate. Demagogue Don, who has strong authoritarian tendencies, hates any media organization that challenges his reality creations with facts which is common characteristic among authoritarian leaders throughout modern history.
Anonymous Trump insider behind N.Y. Times essay now writing a tell-all book - MarketWatch For the next few decades, more information will become public about Donald's Presidency, and the overall picture will be far more negative IMO than anything that has come out to date. I do not believe that this kind of book should be published with an anonymous author however. The author should resign his position and then put his name on the book.
'Powerful woman' Kellyanne Conway mocks and threatens reporter for mentioning her husband (AUDIO)
++
Donald and Ukraine:
White House delayed Ukraine trade decision in August - The Washington Post ("The White House’s trade representative in late August withdrew a recommendation to restore some of Ukraine’s trade privileges after John Bolton, then-national security adviser, warned him that President Trump probably would oppose any action that benefited the government in Kyiv.")
Ukrainian President and advisers discussed pressure from Trump weeks before taking office Two weeks before Zelensky became Ukraine's President, he met with his advisors to discuss how to deal with Trump's pressure to open an investigation into the Bidens. The meeting was on May 7, 2019.
Contradicting Trump, Ukraine Knew of Aid Freeze Before It Became Public ("the Ukrainian government was aware of the freeze during most of the period in August when Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, and two American diplomats were pressing President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to make a public commitment to the investigations being sought by Mr. Trump.")
Donald claims that he was only interested in pressuring Ukraine to crack down on corruption. That is why he fired the ambassador Marie Yovanovitch who had been implementing U.S. anti-corruption efforts and why he cut billions of U.S. funding aimed at fighting corruption in Ukraine and other countries. Former ambassador to Ukraine says she was ousted because of her anti-corruption work - Vox; In Trumpworld, just about everything is turned upside down, true is false, false is true, corruption is anti-corruption, etc.
++
The Impeachment Process as a "Lynching":
The Chief Judge of D.C. federal district courts ruled on Friday that the House's impeachment inquiry was legal. Impeachment Inquiry Is Legal, Judge Rules, Giving Democrats a Victory; 75 Page Decision.pdf (“Even in cases of presidential impeachment, a House resolution has never, in fact, been required to begin an impeachment inquiry.” emphasis added) That will be news to republican tribe members who are being mislead by their political leaders. There is nothing in the House rules or the Constitution that requires a full House vote on an impeachment resolution before starting an investigation.
While the Trump Administration will appeal the decision, I seriously doubt that the ruling will be overturned or that any court will instruct Congress on how to conduct an impeachment proceeding.
The impeachment process will be called a "political question" that is outside the purview of any judicial review, a policy that was extended recently by the 5 republican Supreme Court justices in their refusal to intervene in partisan gerrymandering that is not based on some constitutionally impermissible criteria like race. Rucho v. Common Cause (Supreme Court 2019); Constitutional Law Prof Blog
The impeachment process will be called a "political question" that is outside the purview of any judicial review, a policy that was extended recently by the 5 republican Supreme Court justices in their refusal to intervene in partisan gerrymandering that is not based on some constitutionally impermissible criteria like race. Rucho v. Common Cause (Supreme Court 2019); Constitutional Law Prof Blog
The republican position is legally frivolous and is advanced solely to impede the lawful and constitutionally based inquiry in the House.
There are only two points that matter to republicans in Washington.
The first is that 85% to 90% of republican voters support Donald and they do not want to lose an election by accepting facts as facts.
Even more compelling and irrefutable evidence of impeachable offenses committed by Trump will not cause his supporters to flip. Facts do not matter. Abuse of power by a republican president does not matter. That is just the way it is and nothing can be done about it other than removing as many republicans as possible through the ballot box and giving them what they fear the most.
Trump compares impeachment process to 'a lynching'; Trump Calls Impeachment Inquiry a ‘Lynching’ It is illuminating that Donald sees no difference between the extra-judicial lynching of African-Americans and the constitutionally sanctioned impeachment process that requires a majority vote in the House and a 2/3rds vote in the Senate to convict. There are only two points that matter to republicans in Washington.
The first is that 85% to 90% of republican voters support Donald and they do not want to lose an election by accepting facts as facts.
Even more compelling and irrefutable evidence of impeachable offenses committed by Trump will not cause his supporters to flip. Facts do not matter. Abuse of power by a republican president does not matter. That is just the way it is and nothing can be done about it other than removing as many republicans as possible through the ballot box and giving them what they fear the most.
Senator Graham (R-SC) agreed with Donald that the inquiry was a "lynching". Lindsey Graham agrees, impeachment 'a lnyching in every sense': USA Today
Graham may be channeling the spirit of the deceased South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond who walked out of the 1948 Democrat convention after the party passed a civil rights platform that included a statement opposing lynching. In 1948, Democrats Weathered Civil Rights Divide: NPR
Thurmond thereafter ran for President as a "Dixiecrat" in 1948, carrying four southern states (South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana).
Thurmond and other racist democrats left the Democrat party and joined the republican party. That did not change their racist beliefs but just their party label.
One of Thurmond's best known speeches from his 1948 campaign contained the following statements: "I wanna tell you, ladies and gentlemen, that there's not enough troops in the army to force the Southern people to break down segregation and admit the Nigra race into our theaters, into our swimming pools, into our homes, and into our churches." The legend of Strom's Remorse.
Joe Foot-In-His-Mouth Biden once referred to the Clinton impeachment as a "partisan lnyching". Joe Biden sorry for 'lynching' remark about Bill Clinton impeachment
Maybe Hapless Joe was channeling the Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who claimed he was being lynched when the democrats decided to investigate Anita Hill's sexual misconduct charges against Thomas. Clarence Thomas High-Tech Lynching - YouTube Biden was the Chairman of the Senate committee that held the Thomas hearings.
It is interesting that Trump will be impeached by the House because he pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden who will more likely than not fall by the wayside during primary season which would have happened without Trump trying to smear him with made up conspiracy theories.
+++
Trump and the Kurds:
Kremlin says U.S. betrayed Kurds in Syria, tells Kurds to withdraw or be mauled
Trump has sent 3,000 U.S. soldiers to Saudi Arabia when claiming that the withdrawal of 1,000 troops from northern Syria was done to fulfill his campaign promise to bring troops home from the Middle East. Trump will send forces to Saudi Arabia after Turkey strikes in Syria
Trump declares 'big success' in Syria, lifts sanctions on Turkey
+++++
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 EMAPRC at C$17.85 (C$1 commission):
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 EMAPRC at C$17.85 (C$1 commission):
Quote: EMA.PRC | Emera Inc. Pfd. Series C Overview
Issuer: Emera Inc
Home | Emera
Emera Reports 2019 Second Quarter Financial Results
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 EMAPRC at C$18.7 (7/7/19 Post)
Security:
Par Value: C$25
Current Coupon: 4.721% until 8/14/23 reset date
Next Reset: 2.65% spread to the then 5 year Canadian bond yield.
Average Total Cost (100 shares)= C$18.3
Current Yield at Total Cost = 6.45%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/31/19
Emera Approves Increase in Common Dividend, Extends Dividend Growth Guidance and Declares Quarterly Dividends
EMAPRC Trading Profits to Date = C$429
Issuer: Emera Inc
Home | Emera
Emera Reports 2019 Second Quarter Financial Results
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 EMAPRC at C$18.7 (7/7/19 Post)
Security:
Par Value: C$25
Current Coupon: 4.721% until 8/14/23 reset date
Next Reset: 2.65% spread to the then 5 year Canadian bond yield.
Average Total Cost (100 shares)= C$18.3
Current Yield at Total Cost = 6.45%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/31/19
Emera Approves Increase in Common Dividend, Extends Dividend Growth Guidance and Declares Quarterly Dividends
EMAPRC Trading Profits to Date = C$429
2. Small Ball Adds- All Commission Free Trades:
I would emphasize that the energy stock sector is currently in a long term secular bear market of unknown duration and depth. The bear market trend started in the 2014 summer.
Small Ball Trading Rules
A. Bought 10 PNNT at $6.09:
Quote: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) - MarketWatch
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Closing Price 10/25/19: PNNT $6.18 +$0.01 +0.16%
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added 50 PNNT at $6.21 (9/21/19 Post)
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 50 PNNT at $7.35-Highest Cost Lot (6/7/18 Post); Sold Roth IRA: 100 PNNT at $9.535 (2/17/15 Post); Item # 5 Sold 50 PNNT at $11.92 (12/17/13 Post)
Current Position: 121+ shares
Average Total Cost Per share: $6.48
The goal is to eliminate the position whenever I can do so profitably.
Last Reported Net Asset Value Per Share (6/30/19): $8.74
Discount at $6.48 cost & $8.75 NAV = -25.94%
I would emphasize that the energy stock sector is currently in a long term secular bear market of unknown duration and depth. The bear market trend started in the 2014 summer.
Small Ball Trading Rules
A. Bought 10 PNNT at $6.09:
Quote: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) - MarketWatch
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Closing Price 10/25/19: PNNT $6.18 +$0.01 +0.16%
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added 50 PNNT at $6.21 (9/21/19 Post)
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 50 PNNT at $7.35-Highest Cost Lot (6/7/18 Post); Sold Roth IRA: 100 PNNT at $9.535 (2/17/15 Post); Item # 5 Sold 50 PNNT at $11.92 (12/17/13 Post)
Current Position: 121+ shares
Average Total Cost Per share: $6.48
The goal is to eliminate the position whenever I can do so profitably.
Last Reported Net Asset Value Per Share (6/30/19): $8.74
Discount at $6.48 cost & $8.75 NAV = -25.94%
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share (possible cut since NII was last reported at $.17 per share)
Dividend Yield at Average Total Cost = 11.11%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/19 (before last purchase)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Maximum Position: Upped to 200 shares + Shares purchased with dividends
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule using commission free trades (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)
Goal: Exit the position at any net profit after collecting several quarterly dividend payments.
B. Added 2 SLB at $31.02:
Quote: Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)
SLB | Schlumberger Ltd. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: SLB $35.09 -$0.02 -0.06%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Initiated Small Purchase Program for SLB: Bought 15 SLB at $33.95; 5 at $32 and 5 at $31.39 (9/7/19 Post)
I have nothing to add to that prior discussion. I am simply following here the small ball trading rules.
Average Total Cost Per share = $32.9
Dividend: Quarterly at $.5
Dividend Yield at Total Average Cost = 6.08%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/19 (before this last purchase)
Current Position: 27+ shares
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule using commission free trades
C. Added 2 OXY at $40.28, 2 OXY at $40.77 and 3 at $41.34:
Quote: Occidental Petroleum Corp.
Closing Market Price: OXY $42.53 +$0.24 +0.57%
Last Discussed: Item 2.A. Initiated Small Ball Purchase Program in OXY: Bought 10 at $45 and 3 at $42.67 (10/8/19 Post)
I would add the following cites to that recent discussion:
Occidental estimates higher third-quarter production on Permian boost - Reuters
Global oil freight rates continue upward march; OXY charters VLCC for $15.8M --Seeking Alpha; Oil producers, refiners face surging global freight rates after U.S. sanctions - Reuters
Raymond James Analyst Favorite Picks-24/7 Wall St.
Current Position: 20 shares
Total Average Cost Per Share = $43.21
Dividend: Quarterly at $.79 per share ($3.16 annually)
Dividend Yield at $43.21 = 7.31%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/19 (before purchases)
Maximum Position: 30 shares (viewed as a risky stock in a risky sector that is presently in a long term secular bear market of unknown and unknowable duration and depth)
Purchase Restriction: Small ball rule using commission free trades
D. Added 10 EAF at $11.08:
Quote: GrafTech International Ltd. - Home
Closing Price Yesterday: EAF $12.31 -$0.11 -0.89%
EAF | GrafTech International Ltd. Analyst Estimates
Last Discussed: Item # 1 Bought 100 EAF at $13.06 (10/2/19 Post)
This one went into a nose dive after my purchase, so I put it under a "small ball buying program" in 10 lot shares.
I have nothing to add to that prior discussion.
Current Position: 110 shares
Average Total Cost per share = $12.92
Maximum Position: Upped to 150 shares + shares purchased with dividends
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball rule using commission free trades
Dividend Yield at Average Total Cost = 11.11%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/19 (before last purchase)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Maximum Position: Upped to 200 shares + Shares purchased with dividends
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule using commission free trades (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)
Goal: Exit the position at any net profit after collecting several quarterly dividend payments.
B. Added 2 SLB at $31.02:
Quote: Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)
SLB | Schlumberger Ltd. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: SLB $35.09 -$0.02 -0.06%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Initiated Small Purchase Program for SLB: Bought 15 SLB at $33.95; 5 at $32 and 5 at $31.39 (9/7/19 Post)
I have nothing to add to that prior discussion. I am simply following here the small ball trading rules.
Average Total Cost Per share = $32.9
Dividend: Quarterly at $.5
Dividend Yield at Total Average Cost = 6.08%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/19 (before this last purchase)
Current Position: 27+ shares
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule using commission free trades
C. Added 2 OXY at $40.28, 2 OXY at $40.77 and 3 at $41.34:
Quote: Occidental Petroleum Corp.
Closing Market Price: OXY $42.53 +$0.24 +0.57%
Last Discussed: Item 2.A. Initiated Small Ball Purchase Program in OXY: Bought 10 at $45 and 3 at $42.67 (10/8/19 Post)
I would add the following cites to that recent discussion:
Occidental estimates higher third-quarter production on Permian boost - Reuters
Global oil freight rates continue upward march; OXY charters VLCC for $15.8M --Seeking Alpha; Oil producers, refiners face surging global freight rates after U.S. sanctions - Reuters
Raymond James Analyst Favorite Picks-24/7 Wall St.
Current Position: 20 shares
Total Average Cost Per Share = $43.21
Dividend: Quarterly at $.79 per share ($3.16 annually)
Dividend Yield at $43.21 = 7.31%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/19 (before purchases)
Maximum Position: 30 shares (viewed as a risky stock in a risky sector that is presently in a long term secular bear market of unknown and unknowable duration and depth)
Purchase Restriction: Small ball rule using commission free trades
D. Added 10 EAF at $11.08:
Quote: GrafTech International Ltd. - Home
Closing Price Yesterday: EAF $12.31 -$0.11 -0.89%
EAF | GrafTech International Ltd. Analyst Estimates
Last Discussed: Item # 1 Bought 100 EAF at $13.06 (10/2/19 Post)
This one went into a nose dive after my purchase, so I put it under a "small ball buying program" in 10 lot shares.
I have nothing to add to that prior discussion.
Current Position: 110 shares
Average Total Cost per share = $12.92
Maximum Position: Upped to 150 shares + shares purchased with dividends
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball rule using commission free trades
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Bank of China 1.9% CDs Maturing on 12/17/19 (2 month CDs):
B. Bought 2 State Bank of India 1.85% CDs Maturing on 4/21/20 (6 month CDs):
B. Bought 2 State Bank of India 1.85% CDs Maturing on 4/21/20 (6 month CDs):
C. Bought at Auction 3 Treasury Bills Maturing on 4/16/20 (6 month):
IR = 1.661%
4. Long Term Bond Strategy-Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 10 Rutherford County Water Revenue 2% Maturing on 2/1/30:
Emma Page
Rutherford County - Google Maps
Rated: AAA by S & P
Total Cost: 99.45 (with $1 per bond commission; bought at 99.35)
YTM= 2.06%
Current Tax Free Yield at TC = 2.011%
Ten Year Treasury Yield (10/24): 1.77%
2019 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
This 10 year AAA tax free municipal bond had a higher tax free yield than the taxable 10 U.S. treasury note which has a AA+ rating from S & P. United States federal government credit-rating downgrades-Wikipedia
Optional Redemption: At issuer's option on or after 2/1/2028:
Security:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
A. Bought 10 Rutherford County Water Revenue 2% Maturing on 2/1/30:
Rutherford County - Google Maps
Rated: AAA by S & P
Total Cost: 99.45 (with $1 per bond commission; bought at 99.35)
YTM= 2.06%
Current Tax Free Yield at TC = 2.011%
Ten Year Treasury Yield (10/24): 1.77%
2019 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
This 10 year AAA tax free municipal bond had a higher tax free yield than the taxable 10 U.S. treasury note which has a AA+ rating from S & P. United States federal government credit-rating downgrades-Wikipedia
Optional Redemption: At issuer's option on or after 2/1/2028:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
It is ironic that Biden is showing age and probably won't make it through... but Trump's efforts to take him down will be what unraveled the web...
ReplyDeletea web we all know are there over many countries and things... but for some reason leaders and media have acted like isn't there.
The worry is without Biden, will other moderates come to the front? AmyK's gotten donations as a result of the last debate. Booker's is slightly above AmyK. But otherwise the front runners are Warren and Bernie. With Pete hovering around below.
Both can't beat Trump & don't represent moderate middle america.
As a whole Jewish folks read him as untrustworthy & opportunist. Not a good thing when you're own heritage community thinks you are a bad idea. (According to polls I've come across.)
The timing of the Senate impeachment hearing is likely to keep Senator candidates away from IOWA and give edge to the rest...
Land: I would view it as a mistake politically to pass articles of impeachment in the House knowing that the Senate will not convict regardless of the proof warranting impeachment.
DeleteInstead, the better course would be to pass censure resolutions on each separate impeachment offense in the House, preventing a show trial in the Senate on the articles of impeachment. Each separate resolution would be extremely detailed factually and would be based on a comprehensive public record containing witness testimony and documents.
The object needs to to focus on Trump's unfitness and his multiple abuses of presidential power, exposing them to the light of day, and then let the voters decide whether to remove him in the November 2020 along with his republican protectors, apologists and enablers.
Nixon would probably have been convicted in the Senate based on what he did to cover up the attempted burglary of the DNC. Both the burglary and the cover up were idiotic in a political sense since there was no way Nixon would have lost the 1972 election to George McGovern.
As to the Democrat candidates, and assuming no recession in November 2020, Trump would have a better than 50/50 chance with Warren as the nominee. Even with everything that has happened, and Trump's very high strongly dislike approval rating and detestable character, he will beat her. Warren would do better than McGovern in 1972 but would probably lose the electoral college. Far left Democrats are not going to succeed. Obama and Clinton, notwithstanding GOP false characterizations, were moderates.
The field needs to be narrowed and perhaps Iowa will do that. I would anticipate that AmyK and Booker will not be around after the New Hampshire primary. Their showings will be in the single digits in both the Iowa Caucuses and the NH primary.
There will be 4 candidates left after NH: Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. Anyone else sticking around will see their campaign contributions dry up.
For Biden to have a chance, Buttigieg will need to drop out early and Sanders will need to stay in the race, with voters formally supporting AmyK, Buttigieg, and Booker moving decisively into Biden's camp.
Biden has too much baggage from the past and is not appealing to the Warren and Sanders supporters. Many Democrats never forgave Biden and Hillary for supporting Bush's Iraq war resolution. He would still have the best chance to beat Trump with either Harris or AmyK as his V-P. He will need to pick a woman.
I see more room for flexibility in both how an impeachment hearing might go. And how elections might go.
DeleteIt's become obvious I'm more of an optimist in general.
Pelosi will decide what to do with the findings to get best election results. Will depend on her inside knowledge of how much the hearings once public, wind up flipping GOP senators. Hopefully she'll have good judgement on this.
I still hold out that something can break that will allow a more moderate candidate field competition going into IOWA or out of it.
Even those who supported Biden and argued with me vehemently on Amy and Booker, are now re-tweeting supportive tweets of them. So there has been some shift. Not enough to get happy. But some.
What a mess.
Biden picks one of those two women and at least someone with focus, will be playing back up.
I tend to underestimate how much a women is seen as a liability even on the left. It's people farther left of me, who argued that a women such as those, is not viable. And that I really should support Biden as the viable one. Multiple people have. Well, men have. Always surprises me. My own family of origin, was less bias than much of the world.
Land: The most recent Quinnipiac poll, published last Thursday, has Booker at 1% and AmyK at 3% among Democrat voters. Warren is leading the pack.
Deletehttps://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3646
If Biden somehow manages to squeak through, my unsolicited advice would be for him to pick AmyK as his VP. Harris adds nothing to the ticket while AmyK has solid midwestern roots which will be the primary battleground area.
Support for impeachment and removal is around 48% to 52% depending on the poll which is high compared to past impeachment efforts.
However, that number is irrelevant IMO. The relevant number for conviction is how many republicans support impeachment. The last Quinnipiac poll "support for impeachment is 86 - 9 percent among Democrats, and 49 - 41 percent among independents, while Republicans oppose impeachment 91 - 6 percent.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3645
With only 6% of republicans favoring removal, and most or all of the bad Ukraine conduct is known, there is no way that republican senators will vote to convict, even if the evidence is overwhelming to convict. Republican senators voting to convict would lose in a republican primary by voting for conviction. Maybe up to 3 can be peeled off from the herd but no more.
I would emphasize that the growing number of independents who support removal is a major problem for republicans in competitive states and congressional districts. Republicans are seen now as supporting Trump's conduct on Ukraine and every other matter that could form the basis for impeachment.
The odds of conviction in the Senate are close to nil and will remain so.
Pelosi was right IMO in saying earlier that an impeachment proceeding should not be brought unless it was likely to succeed in the Senate.
The Ukraine matter forced her hand but starting an impeachment investigation under these circumstances does not have to result in a vote on article of impeachment, particularly during an election year.
Democrat voters want the Duck impeached and removed.
That is not going to happen unless something far more serious than the Ukraine matter comes to light with proof so cogent and reliable that even some republicans have to accept the necessity for removal. I would go with multiple votes of censure after building a detailed record.
The focus needs to be on presenting hard evidence that Donald is unfit to be President for another 4 years. And, in the general election, 90% republican support is not going to reelect Demagogue Don when Democrats flock to the polls in record numbers (more energized to vote than at anytime in my life) and independents abandon him and his enablers.
I know. I'm aware of the data... I still believe that it can't be judged until the hearings and violates are done publicly and until the independent voice has a chance to jell.
DeleteThings do sometimes change on a dime. So while I'm not betting on full removal. I'm not willing to use "right now" as the only factor to consider.
Media's hashing of this though, counting on senators or even house reps to vote for impeachment without any evidence they would, just because they hesitated in a reply... is... Well I change the channel.
I'm going to we'll see. Trump is very irritated with impeachment. So censure will not accomplish what that asterisk will along his name. It will pressure him into more errors. He in particular for a sociopath is so socio rather than psycho, that he does a lot outloud, making errors a little more visible. (Psychos in informal definitions, have less of the impulsivity. I.e. Putin.)
There is another path. Take back the senate, and follow through post-election. It's a path that I suspect more likely and at least not discussed at all.
What's happened is GOP voters that can't stand Trump have left GOP. So the polling is weird right now. Accurate but not the same as it's been in the past where parties continues to exist intact. So their efforts to compare to past don't work.
Agree, presenting the hard evidence is key. Regardless of how it's handled, the point is for the public to know the facts. And so far it sounds like there's facts to know.
Just hoping media doesn't take a clear easy picture and create mud. They've done a lot of that already in what's been a simple picture. They need to fell airwaves so they talk long past when they have something clarifying to add. Plus they replay GOP arguments over and over, thinking it's self-evident that they are faulty and valuable to show how faulty they are.
If Biden is smart he'll pick one of them. But I don't know how smart he'll be. If he picks Warren, it will be a bad idea.
Well we can go back and forth on what will be... but that won't make it so.. Just have to wait, canvas or push for what we think makes sense... and hope it works out better than it's been for the last 3 years.
While I don't push for recessions, if we're going to have one anyway, like it to time itself well.
There's a nice deal at Chase. $15k into a new checking account and a direct deposit... will get $600. I think you have to keep it in for 90 days.
ReplyDeleteLand: On these kind of offers, you need to check with the bank rather than summaries found at websites that make representations about the offer. There also may be a number of drawbacks including monthly fees, opening balances, minimum balances, negligible interest on checking and savings accounts, time period for holding. It seems that the enticement was $350 for both a new checking and savings account. I checked the Chase website that has the details. The interest on savings is .01%.
DeleteQuote from offer:
"To receive the $150 savings bonus: 1) Open a new Chase SavingsSM account, which is subject to approval; 2) Deposit a total of $10,000 or more in new money into the new savings account within 20 business days of account opening; AND 3) Maintain at least a $10,000 balance for 90 days from the date of deposit. The new money cannot be funds held by you at Chase or its affiliates. After you have completed all the above savings requirements, we'll deposit the bonus in your new account within 10 business days. The Annual Percentage Yield (APY), for Chase SavingsSM effective as of 09/13/2019, is 0.01% for all balances in all states. Interest rates are variable and subject to change. Additionally, fees may reduce earnings on the account. "
I got a direct offer. It's $600 for two pieces that I mentioned. Maybe because I got a charge card last year but didn't open an account? There aren't fees that will eat into it at least at the required balance.
DeleteYep, need to calculate the hold time at no interest vs if it was somewhere else. Usually it's so close to break even that it's not worth it.
If may be available to you if you call them and ask. But that's where it starts to be time and work and may not be worth it. I have an email with a link. I'll add it, though it's probably account specific:
https://e.chase.com/H/2/v40000016d6e03b6eec027dbf4bbe5c898/b7bf3444-a015-4ddf-b187-6faa22ebca7d/HTML
Yay, that one (on the website that you posted) isn't nearly as worth it.
It takes work just to read all the fine prints! Also sometimes a magnifier.
Earnings released this morning are probably sufficient to propel SPX to a new all time high today.
ReplyDeleteAT & T is currently up $1.44 in pre-market trading after reporting earnings:
AT&T Inc.
PREMARKET
$38.28 +$1.37 +3.71%
Volume: 1.9M
Last Updated: Oct 28, 2019 at 9:28 a.m. EDT
Summary:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/atts-stock-surges-after-profit-beat-capital-allocation-plans-offset-revenue-miss-2019-10-28
I will discuss in my next post paring my AT & T position that reduced my average cost per share to $29.39 and increased my dividend yield to 6.94% based on the current quarterly penny rate of $.51. I am anticipating a 1 cent raise effective for the 2020 first quarter.
https://investors.att.com/stock-information/historical-stock-information/historical-dividends/att-inc
Kellogg Co.
ReplyDeletePREMARKET $63.39 +$2.3262 +3.81%
Last Updated: Oct 29, 2019 at 8:27 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/k
Kellogg reported better than expected earnings for the quarter ending 9/28 this morning.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kellogg-shares-rise-after-earnings-and-sales-beat-2019-10-29?mod=mw_quote_news
Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $1.03 with organic net sales growth (ex divestitures and currency translation) exceeding 2% in the quarter. Y-O-Y revenue and earnings results were impacted by the sale of Keebler and other brands.
"On an adjusted basis, earnings per share declined by about 3%, due to the absence of results from the divested businesses, as well as adverse currency translation. On a currency-neutral basis, adjusted earnings per share declined less than 1%, as the divestiture impact and cost pressures on currency-neutral operating profit more than offset a benefit from the favorable resolution of uncertain tax positions." GAAP E.P.S. was adversely impacted by "certain multi-employer pension withdrawal liabilities."
SEC Filed Press Release
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55067/000162828019012643/exhibit991q3-2019.htm
I currently own 50 shares with an average cost per share of $55.29.
Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg (K) at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades(July 20, 2019 Post)
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/07/observations-and-sample-of-recent_20.html
My last transaction was to sell 10 share at $63.95.
Item # 3.B.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/08/observations-and-sample-of-recent_10.html
PennantPark Investment Corp (PNNT)
ReplyDelete$6.08 -$0.14 -2.25%
Last Updated: Oct 29, 2019 at 10:02 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pnnt
I discussed in this post adding 10 shares at $6.09.
JPM downgraded PNNT this morning to underperform from neutral and reduced its price target to $6 from $6.5.
PNNT is already disliked by institutional investors as revealed by its price chart and that downgrade just adds some to that already existing disfavor.
I do not have access to the report.
IMO, PNNT is a borderline deservedly hated externally managed BDC as I mentioned in this 9/21/19 Post:
Item # 2.B.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/09/observations-and-sample-of-recent_21.html
In the 10/29/19 post above, I noted in this post that a dividend cut is possible since NII is currently below the quarterly penny rate. A dividend cut and a negative third quarter report would tilt the classification into deservedly hated.
I haven't done anything yet with the all time highs. But this increases chances of more ATHs coming. Even if there's a dip first.
ReplyDeleteWill take a LOT of bad ecnomic data to stop this bull enthusiasm. Especially going into holiday season and brokers wanting good window dressing.
My stocks have bifurcated. Those that did well still are. But those that sunk, aren't gaining from the ATHs. Sigh.
Land: Since I am a bottom feeder and a dumpster diver when it comes to stock selection, I generally have a mixed bag.
DeleteI recognize when tip toeing into energy stocks that they are in a long term bear market whose duration and depth are unknown and unknowable. For those stocks, patience is required for the long game since I see no signs yet of a bull market starting. Dividend yields are good but price depreciation has wrecked total return numbers.
The first estimate for the third quarter's real GDP will be released tomorrow morning. The consensus estimate is for +1.6%.
The Stock Jocks are looking past evidence of a slowdown, believing that the FED can restart growth with another .25% cut in the FF rate and that everything will work out just find in the trade wars.
It has not paid to dwell on negative economic data for over 10 years now and that breeds overconfidence in the stock market and the economy's resiliency even when data is pointing to a significant slowdown.
As I have said many times in the past, optimism about the future will need to be drowned by an ocean of cold water. It will take unmistakable evidence of a recession and substantial shortfalls in earnings reports that can not be ignored before faith in blue skies until the end of days is replaced with the belief that things are bad and will never get better.
I guess go with the flow of ignoring... even if damping water is sitting near by...
DeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_30.html