Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: CS, HTPRD, IBB, ICLN, ING

Economy: 

U.S. ran deficit just under $1 trillion in 2019, CBO estimates - MarketWatch

US producer price index - September 2019: Producer Price Index News Release summary The PPI declined .3% in September. 

Inverted yield curve guru Campbell Harvey: Prepare for recession 

There are two U.S. centric events that could contribute to the onset of a recession given the magnitude of their impacts on an already slowing economy: GM strike and Boeing's 737MAX problems. 

China 'strongly urges' US to remove sanctions and stop accusing it of human rights violations

Trump's latest China blacklist focuses on infrastructure, repression

Social Security Administration announces lower COLA than the past two years - MarketWatch (the inflation increase for 2020 will be 1.6% or about $23 per month for someone receiving the average monthly benefit of $1460 per month)

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

The stock market is forecasting that China and the U.S. will at least partially resolve some trade issues today. 

The Elizabeth Warren stock-market correction will happen sooner than you think: RBC - MarketWatch Unless the democrats gain control over the Senate and then eliminate the filibuster rule by a majority vote, a President Warren would have no chance at all to pass any of signature pieces of legislation. Coming soon: The death of the filibuster - POLITICO

If the Democrats manage to take control over the senate with a slender majority,  and republican senators block everything they want to do through filibusters which requires 60 votes to shut down, then I would view it likely that the filibuster rule will be eliminated; and then a significant negative market reaction would be justified IMO. U.S. debt would explode higher potentially reaching $2 trillion per year within 4 to 6 years after Medicare for All, free college, etc. become law. 

Eroding profit margins will push U.S. into recession in 2020, leading forecaster says - MarketWatch

Goldman Sachs Says REITs Remain Solid 2020 Dividend Ideas - 24/7 Wall St.

10-year Treasury yield pushes above 1.6% after European bond-market selloff spills into U.S. - MarketWatch (10/10/19 article) The purported reason for the European bond sell-off was the release of the ECB minutes that showed disagreements among members about restarting QE. However, that was already known prior to the release of the minutes. Account of the monetary policy meeting: ECB 10/10/19 

Kroger downgraded with analysts calling the grocer's 'costly' tech investment a 'misstep' - MarketWatch

Jim Cramer: ‘You are out of your mind’ if you have conviction in this stock market - MarketWatch

Kraton’s stock craters as the global economic slowdown prompts profit warning - MarketWatch

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Trump:

Trump asked Tillerson to get DOJ to drop case against Giuliani client in 2017: report - MarketWatch; 

Trump asked Tillerson to help broker deal to end U.S. prosecution of Turkish trader represented by Giuliani - The Washington Post 

Trump and Giuliani's Ukraine Schemes Unraveling: 

Giuliani Pressed for Turkish Prisoner Swap in Oval Office Meeting

Two Men, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, Who Helped Giuliani on Ukraine Arrested

Giuliani’s Ukraine Team: In Search of Influence, Dirt and Money - The New York Times

Two Key Players In The Ukraine Controversy Spent Lavishly As They Dug For Dirt On Biden

Parnas and Fruman are part of Giuliani's dream team which includes Paul Manafort and Dmytro Firtash, who is under house arrest in Vienna waiting extradition to the U.S. to face bribery, racketeering, and money laundering charges in the U.S. His bail in Austria was set at €125M, the largest in Austria's history. Rudy Giuliani's Mysterious Vienna Trip - The Atlantic 

Showboat Rudy proudly waved an affidavit from Firtash during a Fox interview where Firtash claimed to have dirt on Joe Biden. How Dmytro Firtash Seized Giuliani’s Biden Attacks to Fight Extradition to the U.S. 

2 Guys Who Helped Giuliani Go After Biden in Ukraine Were Just Arrested 

Giuliani associates charged with illegally funneling cash to pro-Trump group - Reuters

Foreign-born Trump donors tied to Rudy Giuliani's Ukraine efforts arrested at airport with one way tickets to foreign country 

U.S. vs Lev Parnas et al. indictment - The Washington Post

Among other alleged criminal acts, the two Giuliani associates funneled money from foreign sources, including someone with "Russian roots", through shell corporations to a pro-Trump Super Pac and other republicans. The indictments also connect the two to Giuliani's efforts to tar Joe Biden and to fire Marie Yovanovitch, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine viewed by Trump and Giuliani as an obstacle to their Ukraine plan to tar Joe Biden. 

One of the republicans, Pete Sessions, advocated for the dismissal of Ms, Yovanovitch after meeting with Parnas and Fruman.Former Texas Rep. Pete Sessions was pushed by Giuliani associates to back effort to eject Ukraine ambassador The firing of Ms Yovanovitch was part of Trump's scheme to coerce Ukraine to publicly investigate Joe Biden.   

Trump orders Gordon Sondland not to appear for House testimony

White House Declares War on Impeachment Inquiry Trump decided that it would be better to obstruct the inquiry than to allow witnesses with knowledge to testify or to produce more incriminating documents.

Donald Trump's Failure to Comply With Congressional Subpoenas Was Once Described by Lindsey Graham as Impeachment-worthy (see video embedded in the article). Senator Graham meant to say that it is an impeachment worthy event when a Democrat President obstructs a Congressional inquiry, not when a republican president does the same.  Being one of the most hypocritical politicians, Graham has lost whatever credibility he may have had when he was Senator McCain's sidekick.   

The democrats are hoping that Senator Graham follows through with his stated desire to call Showboat Rudy as a witness. Graham plans to invite Giuliani to testify on Ukraine affair - ABC News 

Fact check: Trump tweets barrage of false claims on the weekend and Monday morning - CNN

Profit, not politics: Trump allies sought Ukraine gas deal

The Trumpster republican Senator from Wisconsin Ron Johnson told the WSJ that the U.S. ambassador Gordon Sondland told him Trump would release the military aid provided Ukraine launched an investigation.

Sondland had travelled from Europe to D.C. to testify last Tuesday. Trump decided to block him from testifying a few hours before he was scheduled to give his deposition.

When Senator Johnson was asked about his quid pro quo statement by Chuck Todd, he evaded the question and attempted to bring up an unrelated matter involving a fired FBI employee.

Senator Johnson stated that he did not trust the FBI or the CIA. Ron Johnson Says He Doesn’t Trust the FBI or CIA When It Comes to Trump and Ukraine | Vanity Fair Republicans are doing whatever they can to undermine both agencies including enlisting foreign government support to undermine them. 

E.U. ambassador to testify in impeachment inquiry, defying Trump administration

Trump's former Russia aide set to give revealing testimony on Giuliani, Sondland

Republican politicians will aid and abet Donald's obstruction, either through affirmative acts or silence.   

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Trump and Biden: 

Giuliani's case rests on two Ukrainians with checkered pasts and suspect motives 

The linchpin of Trump's conspiracy theory is that VP Biden had a prosecutor, Viktor Shokin fired because he was investigating the company, Burisma, that had hired Hunter Biden as a director.  

The U.S. government and European governments wanted Shokin out since he was not investigating corruption in the Ukraine and had fired the anti-corruption members of the Prosecutor Generals’ Office. What really happened when Biden forced out Ukraine's top prosecutor: USA Today; No reforms, no aid for Ukraine | European Council on Foreign Relations; Ukraine Ousts Viktor Shokin, Top Prosecutor-The New York Times (3/29/16); Trump endorses Ukraine's swamp monster, prosecutor Viktor Shokin Donald sees a kindred spirit in Shokin 

Earlier this year, Bloomberg reported that the investigation into Burisma had been dormant for over a year BEFORE Shokin was fired. Ukraine Ex-Official Casts Doubt on Biden Conflict Claim - Bloomberg; Trump allies respond to second whistleblower: 'Why should I care?'

What about Donald's children benefiting from their Dad's position as President. 

And, I would note that the republicans are not claiming that Joe Biden received compensation from Burisma or anyone else while he was Vice President. 

What about Donald enriching himself during his Presidency. 

Republicans simply do not make those comparisons:  

Report: Trump's Conflicts in Year Two - CREW; 

Trump uses presidency to promote his properties, fatten his own wallet; 

How Is Donald Trump Profiting From the Presidency? Let Us Count the Ways | The Report: Opinion | US News 

Donald Trump Has Spent Nearly A Third of His Presidency Visiting His Business Properties At Taxpayer Expense: Report; 

Donald Trump is picking your pocket  

A Trump hotel mystery: Giant reservations followed by empty rooms - POLITICO

A malignant narcissist like Donald will project onto others their unfavorable qualities. How to Confront Narcissists' Lethal Weapon: Projection | Psychology Today; Projection;

An example would be Donald claiming that Biden misused his office for personal gain, even though there is no supporting evidence, when the truth is that Donald is the guilty one with abundant facts supporting that claim. 

Trump claims that he is only interested in asking foreign governments to investigate corruption. When asked whether he had asked foreign governments to investigate a U.S. citizen other than Joe Biden, Trump could not identify anyone. In fact, his administration has a record of repealing laws designed to ferret out corruption. Trump Says He's Concerned About Corruption:  NPR; Donald Trump's sudden fixation on 'investigating corruption' in Ukraine doesn't add up - CNN 

Of course, Trump and his republican colleagues in both the Senate and House will do whatever they can to block and interfere with the House investigations of Trump's malfeasance and corruption. 

As George Will argued in his most recent column, all of those republicans need to be voted out of office and maybe the next batch will take their oath's of office seriously. George Will - The spiraling Trump adds self-impeachment to his repertoire - The Washington Post

Fact: Trump TV Ad Misleads on Biden and Ukraine - FactCheck.org

A law needs to be passed by congress that would place restrictions on a President's children and spouse profiting from that association while the President remains in office. That law could also be extended to cover a Vice President's kids and spouse.  

Democrats Must Admit Joe Biden’s Family Profits Off Him

Opinion | What Hunter Biden Did Was Legal — And That’s the Problem - The New York Times

If the republicans in Congress were actually interested in corruption, they could start by cooperating with the democrats in investigating Trump rather than taking all measures to protect and cover for him.   

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Donald Throws an Ally Under the Bus: 

Putin and his ally President Assad want the Kurd's occupying Northern Syria crushed, and Donald has decided to give them a green light to do so. U.S. and Turkey Between Them May Give Syria’s Assad a Big Boost - Bloomberg

The retired 4 star general Joseph Votel wrote a compelling, must read article about Trump's decision to green light Turkey's attacks on America's Kurdish allies. The Danger of Abandoning Our Partners - The Atlantic

See also: What Top Military Officers Really Think About Trump - The Atlantic

Donald gave the following reasoning for throwing the Kurds under the bus: “And as somebody wrote in a very, very powerful article today, they didn’t help us in the second World War, they didn’t help us with Normandy as an example. They mentioned names of different battles. But they’re there to help us with their land and that’s a different thing.” Donald Trump downplays ties to Kurds; 'they didn't help' with Normandy; The 8 wildest moments from Trump's Wednesday press event

The Kurds hold several thousand ISIS prisoners. If the prisoners escape, Donald says let them go back to Europe. Turkey's Syria invasion ramps up as Donald Trump suggests any ISIS prisoner escapees are Europe's problem - CBS News

The "article" referenced by the Duck was an "opinion" column  by Kurt Schlichter, a self styled "conservative" who writes for Breitbart. Critics Aghast As Trump Keeps Word About No More Wars  He is an attorney, a former comic and a retired Lt. Colonel. Why bother with the State and Defense Departments when you have this guy, whoever he is, having a direct line to Donald. 

Malignant narcissists like Donald will make important decisions on impulse. The Former Secretary of State and CEO of Exxon, Rex Tillerson noted that Trumps "acts on instincts" and added the following pertinent comments back in December 2018: 

“What was challenging for me coming from the disciplined, highly process-oriented ExxonMobil corporation to go to work for a man who is pretty undisciplined, doesn’t like to read, doesn’t read briefing reports, doesn’t like to get into the details of a lot of things, but rather just kind of says, ‘This is what I believe.’ ”

Rex Tillerson in interview says he warned Trump not to break the law - Vox

"So often, the president would say here's what I want to do and here's how I want to do it and I would have to say to him, Mr. President I understand what you want to do but you can't do it that way. It violates the law," Tillerson said. Rex Tillerson makes rare public appearance in Houston - Houston Chronicle

Donald Trump's longtime business connections in Turkey back in the spotlight; Trump, Syria, Turkey and Kurds: Abandoning SDF Hurts ISIS Fight - Bloomberg

Erdogan orders Turkish offensive against northern Syria as Kurds mobilize civilian defense 

Exclusive: U.S.-backed Syrian forces halt counter-Islamic State operations -sources - Reuters That has to be case since the Kurds are being attacked by Turkey after Donald gave the green light. 

Donald is completely untrustworthy which has serious adverse ramifications for the U.S. 

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Trump is the primary source for Fake News:

Trump’s new order for Medicare packs potential rise in patients’ costs | PolitiFact Health Check

No Hearsay Rule Change for Whistleblowers - FactCheck.org

Trump Wrong on European Aid to Ukraine - FactCheck.org

Trump's Inaccurate Claims About His 'Perfect' Call - FactCheck.org

Donald asserted on 10/9 that "only 25% want the President impeached".

That is a made up number.  

The FiveThirtyEight impeachment tracker has the number at 49.2% as of 10/2/2019. 

The problem for the GOP is that independents are becoming more willing to support impeachment.   

See also, Poll: Half of voters support impeaching and removing Trump - POLITICO; 

Poll: Majority of Americans say they endorse opening of House impeachment inquiry of Trump - The Washington Post; 

Trump impeachment: New Fox News poll shows half support inquiry, removal

Trump lashes out over Fox News poll that shows majority support his impeachment

Any fact that Donald does not like is immediately labelled as Fake News.

There is no let up in the constant stream of lies and misinformation streaming from Donald. It really is just overwhelming. 

Donald and DACA: 

Donald has repeatedly made the false assertion that Obama admitted he lacked the authority to implement DACA. Did Obama say he didn't have the right to issue DACA? | PolitiFact This is the latest false tweet on this subject:

10/9/19 Tweet

Donald attempted to eliminate the DACA program and was enjoined from doing so by a federal district court whose decision was upheld by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. Opinion.pdf The Fourth Circuit issued a similar order Opinion 18-1521.pdf 

The Supreme Court granted certiorari and will issue an opinion soon. It’s Now the Supreme Court’s Turn to Try to Resolve the Fate of the Dreamers - The New York Times The issue is whether the Trump administration has followed the correct process in attempting to abrogate DACA. 

The 5 "conservative" republican judges will probably overrule the appellate courts, thereby giving the republicans carte blanch to deport the Dreamers to their country of origin. 

Trump and other republicans are willing to hold the Dreamers hostage, possibly granting them some relief from deportation, provided the Democrats agree to the major immigration law changes demanded by the GOP which are unacceptable to the Democrats. The GOP will then blame the democrats for the deportations that became possible after they successfully rescinded the DACA protections. 

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1. Bought 50 CS at $11.49:

Quotes:

USD ADR: CS | Credit Suisse Group AG ADR
CHF: Credit Suisse Group AG (Switzerland: SWX)

Investor relations – Credit Suisse

CS is a global financial institution.

I have no prior trades.

Information Day of Purchase (10/3/19):

10 Year Currency Conversion Chart: CHF / USD Currency Chart. Swiss Franc to US Dollar Rates

Credit Suisse Group AG ADR Analyst Estimates (as of 10/319)
2019: $1.26
2020: $1.51
P/E at $11.49 and $1.51 E.P.S. = 7.61

Chart: Major Destruction Due to the Near Depression Events

Monthly Prices USD ADR

There has been no price recovery from Near Depression lows.

10 Year Chart Day of Purchase:

CS Annual Average Total Return (3/9/09-9/25/19): -.41% ($10K down to $9.575K) Lightyears greater than pathetic.

Compare to SPY ETF at +17.29% annual average total return over the same period ($10K up to $53.796K)

Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel

Dividend History: Extremely Unfavorable

Dividend & Swiss tax values – Credit Suisse

Last Annual Ex Dividend Date:

Future Purchases: Will consider averaging down at less than $10 with another 50 share purchase

Last Earnings Report:

Net Income 2019 2Q = CHF 937M

Divisions:

Swiss Universal Bank: Pre-Tax income of CHF 654M up 18%; Private clients generated pre-tax income of CHF 356M, up 33%; Corporate and Institutional Clients  had pre-tax income of CHF 298M up 5%.

International Wealth Management: Pre Tax income of CHF 444M up 5%

Asia-Pacific: Pre tax income of CHF 237M, up 9%.

Investment Banking and Capital Markets: Net revenues down 30% compared to the 2018 second quarter but up 27% in USD terms from the 2019 1st quarter

Global Markets: Pre-Tax income of CHF 359, up 141% with net revenues increasing 8%.

Broker Reports:

Morningstar (7/31/19): 5 stars with a FV of US$20

S & P (8/6/19): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $13 (cut target price by $2 to $13)

Goal: Sell in the $16 to $18 range after harvesting at least one annual dividend

Problems relating to the Near Depression period still overhang the company. Crisis-era RMBS lawsuits still overhang Credit Suisse - FT: Seeking Alpha

2. Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket:

A. Sold 50 HTPRD at $25.62:

Quote: Hersha Hospitality Trust 6.5% Cumulative Preferred Series D Stock

Profit Snapshot: +$161.46

Item # 1.A. Bought 50 HTPRD at $22.3-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade  (11/11/18 Post)

Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket

Category:  Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks

Security Description: 

Issuer: Hersha Hospitality Trust Cl A (HT)

Par Value: $25 Final Prospectus Supplement
Optional Call Date: On or after 5/31/21

Cumulative Dividends: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes  

Dividends: Paid Quarterly

Last Ex Dividend Date:  6/28/19 
Maturity Date: Potentially perpetual subject to issuer's call right

Qualified Dividends: No, pass through entity

I still own 50 shares bought in a Roth IRA account. Item # 1.A. Bought 50 HTPRD at $20.11 in a Roth IRA Account (12/26/18 Post)

HTPRD Realized Profits to Date: $577.46  ($416 in prior trades)

I sold at a price near my highest sell points to date: Item # 1.A. Sold Last 50 HTPRD Shares at $25.85 (10/9/17 Post); Item # 2 Sold 150 HTPRD at $25.8  (9/18/17 post) 

I currently own 80 HT common shares.

I am currently down to the following equity REIT preferred stocks: 

100 AHTPRI
 50  MNRPRC
 50  BRGPRA
 50  HTPRD 

3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills Maturing on 1/23/20 (secondary market): 

YTM = 1.918%

This was a secondary market purchase of a treasury bill. The interest will be the difference between the price paid and the $1K per bond par value ($13.12 in interest for 2 bonds). Since I bought a zero coupon treasury bill, I did not have to paid accrued interest to the seller.

B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills Maturing on 1/3/20 (secondary market):
YTM 1.926% YTM

This was another secondary market purchase of a zero coupon treasury bill.

C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills Maturing on 2/6/20 (secondary market):
YTM = 1.915%

D. Bought 5 Hancock Whitney Bank 2% CDs Maturing on 11/8/19:

Holding Company: Hancock Whitney Corp. (HWC)
Hancock Whitney Corp.

E. Bought 2 Treasury Bills Maturing on 1/30/20 (secondary market):
YTM = 1.907%

4. Small Ball Commission Free ETFs:

A. Bought 50 ICLN at $10.89:

Quote: ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF Overview | MarketWatch

Sponsor's Website: iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | ICLN

Number of Holdings: 30

Expense Ratio: .46% (about average for a specialty sector fund)

This ETF was favorably mentioned by Abby Cohen in the January 2019 Barron's Roundtable. Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen Highlights Global Bargains - Barron's She liked this ETF in part due to its socially acceptable investments in clean energy companies. The Remarkable Rise Of ESG

ICLN Information Day of Trade:

Chart-Pathetic Since IPO:

IPO in June 2008

This ETF has had two good periods including the current year but was mauled soon after its IPO and suffered three years of significant declines starting in 2010: -27.48, -43.96, and -12.82%. iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) Performance | Morningstar So going up 49.1% in 2013 would have been small comfort to someone buying at the IPO price.

The ten year annual average total return through the day of purchase was -4.68%.

Holdings as of 9/27/19:

Dividends: Semi-annual and barely relevant

Maximum Position: 100 shares

Current Position: 50 shares

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule:

B. Bought 2 IBB at $99.18 and 1 at $96.86:

Quote: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF Overview

Sponsor's Webpage: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF | IBB

Expense Ratio: .46% as of 6/30/19

Holdings: 219 as of 10/7/19

Some Top Holdings as of 10 /7/19:

I do not own any of the stocks listed in the preceding snapshot. I have bought and sold GILD and AMGN in the past.

Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 1 IBB at $100.16 (6/5/19 Post); Item # 4.A. (4/6/19 Post)

5 Year Chart: Up and down but going nowhere

Annual Average Total Return 5 Years Ending 10/7/19 = +2.44%

iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) Performance | Morningstar

Morningstar Rating at 2 Stars

Current Position: 10 shares

Maximum Position: 20 shares

Trading Restriction: Small Ball Rule

5. ADDED 50 ING at $9.96-Used Commission Free Trade: 

Quote: ING Groep N.V. ADR Overview

This is my first average down using the small ball trading rule.  

The first purchase was at $10.49 and was discussed here in Item # 2.

Current Position: 100 Shares

Average Cost Per share = $10.23

Maximum Position: 200 Shares 

I own ING in my Fidelity taxable account. I would not own this stock in a retirement account since the Netherlands will withhold a tax on the dividend payment; and there is no way to recover that tax when the stock is owned in a retirement account.   

Effective 10/10/19, Fidelity reduced its online trading commission to zero for U.S. stocks and ETFs. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.