Economy:
According to the BLS, the economy added 136,000 new jobs in September. Employment Situation Summary The consensus forecast was for 150,000. Over the past 12 months through September, average hourly earnings increased by 2.9%, down from 3.2% in the 1 year period ending in August. The change in nonfarm payroll for July was revised up by 7000 to 166,000. The changed for August was revised up by 38,000 to 168,000.
The main negative from the BLS report is the significant decline in wage growth.
The manufacturing sector lost 2,000 jobs. It's official. Manufacturing is getting crushed
According to the BLS, the economy added 136,000 new jobs in September. Employment Situation Summary The consensus forecast was for 150,000. Over the past 12 months through September, average hourly earnings increased by 2.9%, down from 3.2% in the 1 year period ending in August. The change in nonfarm payroll for July was revised up by 7000 to 166,000. The changed for August was revised up by 38,000 to 168,000.
The main negative from the BLS report is the significant decline in wage growth.
The manufacturing sector lost 2,000 jobs. It's official. Manufacturing is getting crushed
September 2019 ADP Jobs report: Private payrolls grow, hiring slows ADP estimated that private payrolls increased by 135,000 in September. The pace of hiring slowed markedly toward the end of the month. The August estimate was revised down by 30,000. ADP National Employment Report | September 2019 The average monthly increase in 2019 currently stands at 145,000 compared to 214,000 during the same period last year.
Those job reports do not indicate that a recession is on the near horizon, but are consistent with an ongoing slowdown. Dow rallies more than 350 points after 'Goldilocks' jobs report
Since the Stock Jocks view more Fed rate cuts as a positive for both stocks and the economy, the "Goldilocks" scenario, in their worldview, is a mediocre at best jobs report, something that does not suggest major problems immediately ahead but is not too strong to dissuade the FED from cutting rates again later this month.
Some job gains over the summer are tied to temporary employment related to the 2020 U.S. Census. In the August report, for example, 25K of the new jobs were temporary hires in preparation for the 2020 Census. Disappointing jobs report would have been worse without Census workers
ISM reported that its September services PMI declined to 52.6. The consensus was for 55.3. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 52.6 vs. 55.3 est.; September 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM The employment component declined to 50.4 from 53.1 in August. The new orders component declined from 60.3 to 53.7.
Those job reports do not indicate that a recession is on the near horizon, but are consistent with an ongoing slowdown. Dow rallies more than 350 points after 'Goldilocks' jobs report
Since the Stock Jocks view more Fed rate cuts as a positive for both stocks and the economy, the "Goldilocks" scenario, in their worldview, is a mediocre at best jobs report, something that does not suggest major problems immediately ahead but is not too strong to dissuade the FED from cutting rates again later this month.
Some job gains over the summer are tied to temporary employment related to the 2020 U.S. Census. In the August report, for example, 25K of the new jobs were temporary hires in preparation for the 2020 Census. Disappointing jobs report would have been worse without Census workers
ISM reported that its September services PMI declined to 52.6. The consensus was for 55.3. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 52.6 vs. 55.3 est.; September 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM The employment component declined to 50.4 from 53.1 in August. The new orders component declined from 60.3 to 53.7.
China’s Spenders Are Saving. That’s a Problem for Everyone. - The New York Times
U.S. wins WTO backing for tariffs on EU goods in Airbus case - MarketWatch; Trump administration to put tariffs on EU products after WTO victory It was widely known that these tariffs were coming. WTO rules in favor of US in aircraft subsidies dispute While the tariffs are legally justified, U.S. imposition will probably trigger a round of tit-for-tat tariffs with the EU.
EU vows to hit back over US tariffs as businesses count cost - ABC News; Germany says the U.S. wants ‘confrontation’ with EU tariffs - MarketWatch; New tariffs on EU food will boost prices, cost U.S. jobs: industry - Reuters I discussed this issue in a recent comment.
The intensifying political pressures on Donald and increasing evidence of a slowing U.S. economy will IMO make it more likely he will cave in the China trade negotiations. Donald may even realize now that the trade war is contributing to a U.S. economic slowdown. I discussed that opinion in a recent comment. Winning in November 2020 is more important to Donald than any policy objective.
Kudlow says there could be some 'positive surprises' out of next week's China trade talks Kudlow: “There could be positive surprises coming out of these talks. I’m not predicting. I’m just saying don’t rule that out. There could be some positive surprises.” I "could" run around the block later today. I am not predicting that I will but I am not ruling it out either.
However, if Donald insists on keeping tariffs in effect as an enforcement mechanism even with China making trade concessions, then I do not see China going down that path with this President.
Donald is 100% untrustworthy.
U.S. wins WTO backing for tariffs on EU goods in Airbus case - MarketWatch; Trump administration to put tariffs on EU products after WTO victory It was widely known that these tariffs were coming. WTO rules in favor of US in aircraft subsidies dispute While the tariffs are legally justified, U.S. imposition will probably trigger a round of tit-for-tat tariffs with the EU.
EU vows to hit back over US tariffs as businesses count cost - ABC News; Germany says the U.S. wants ‘confrontation’ with EU tariffs - MarketWatch; New tariffs on EU food will boost prices, cost U.S. jobs: industry - Reuters I discussed this issue in a recent comment.
The intensifying political pressures on Donald and increasing evidence of a slowing U.S. economy will IMO make it more likely he will cave in the China trade negotiations. Donald may even realize now that the trade war is contributing to a U.S. economic slowdown. I discussed that opinion in a recent comment. Winning in November 2020 is more important to Donald than any policy objective.
Kudlow says there could be some 'positive surprises' out of next week's China trade talks Kudlow: “There could be positive surprises coming out of these talks. I’m not predicting. I’m just saying don’t rule that out. There could be some positive surprises.” I "could" run around the block later today. I am not predicting that I will but I am not ruling it out either.
However, if Donald insists on keeping tariffs in effect as an enforcement mechanism even with China making trade concessions, then I do not see China going down that path with this President.
Donald is 100% untrustworthy.
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Bank of America says the gains for the S&P 500 this year are in My best guess is that the intra-day high of 3,027.98 on 7/26 will be the high for 2019 and possibly for 2020 as well. SPX did come close to that high on 9/19 when it hit 3,021.99 intra-day. I am not optimistic about next year.
The stock market comeback is another 'failure' as chart analysts grow worried
Related Articles: Companies and insiders are dumping stock, while share repurchases sink - MarketWatch; The bull market is losing one of its most powerful backers
The bull market for stocks may be old, but it’s not dead yet, say Citi strategists - MarketWatch
Louisiana steel mill closes unexpectedly, laying off 376 people - MarketWatch
What ever happened to Trump’s boast of 4%, 5% or even 6% growth? - MarketWatch The claim was always bunk designed to manipulate the weak minded and uninformed.
Exxon Stock Drops as Earnings Guidance Disappoints - Barron's (subscription publication) The conclusion was based on this SEC filing
Boeing engineer complained 737 Max safety system rejected due to cost, reports say - MarketWatch
Ford Q3 US sales down 4.9%, vs. 6.1% estimated
U.S. Automakers Skid Following Sales Reports, CFRA Reiteration of GM at Sell - TheStreet
E-Trade joins Schwab, TD Ameritrade in eliminating commissions on trades - MarketWatch
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Trump:
It looks certain now that the House will pass one or more Articles of Impeachment. In the past, this has happened only to two Presidents: Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson. Nixon resigned before the full House voted on impeachment articles.
Unless Donald starts hanging NYT and WP reporters from the White House lawn with Donald personally pulling the lever on live national television, or something more egregious, no more than 3 republican senators IMO will vote to convict. Since 67 out of 100 senators must vote to convict, and there are 53 republican senators, Donald will not be impeached.
2nd Official Is Weighing Whether to Blow the Whistle on Trump’s Ukraine Dealings This official has more direct knowledge than the first whistleblower and was apparently one of persons who provided information to that whistleblower.
The proof has emerged that Donald used the machinery of the U.S. government to coerce Ukraine into investigating the Bidens. Trump wanted Ukraine’s president to launch investigations before face-to-face meeting, State Dept. texts show ("The texts, which former special U.S. envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker provided investigators during a nearly 10-hour deposition Thursday, reveal that officials felt Trump would not agree to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unless Zelensky promised to launch the investigations — and did so public.")
The widespread abuse of presidential power included conditioning (1) military aid and (2) even discussions between Trump and Zelensky on Ukraine publicly agreeing to launch an investigation of the Bidens. There is no doubt that what the investigation had to turn up irrespective of the truth.
Trump involved Pence in efforts to pressure Ukraine’s leader-The Washington Post Early indications are that Donald drew Pence into his scheme.
The foregoing facts will insure that the House will pass articles of impeachment.
All republican senators would vote to convict a democrat president for the same conduct, but I doubt more than 3 will vote to convict Trump in a Senate trial. The three that may vote to convict are Collins, Murkowski, and Romney. Hypocrisy is inbred in almost all of them.
One of the State Department employees enlisted in that effort was Gordon D. Sondland, the U.S. Ambassador to the EU, who qualifications for that job were his substantial contributions made to Trump and other republicans. Sondland met with Zelensky the day after Trump's call on 7/25/19.
So what was this rich republican donor with no prior diplomatic experience, who was the U.S. ambassador to the EU, doing messing with the Ukraine who is not even an EU member? The WP is looking into this angle: Holding Ukraine hostage: How the president and his allies, chasing 2020 ammunition, fanned a political storm - The Washington Post (Within weeks of being selected by Trump as the U.S. point person for the Ukraine, this political money man "was deep into their efforts to consummate a secret political pact between Trump and Zelensky. Texts show the extent to which they explicitly pursued a transaction tying U.S. military aid and a future visit to the White House to a hard commitment from Ukraine to revive a corruption probe of a company, Burisma, that had employed Hunter Biden, the vice president’s son.")
Sondland and Volker prepared a document for President Zelensky to sign where he would publicly acknowledge an investigation of the Bidens. Trump Envoys Pushed Ukraine to Commit to Investigating Biden - The New York Times
In a 8/9/19 text from Sondland to Volker, Sondland emphasized that Trump wanted Zelensky to deliver on the Biden investigation: “I think potus really wants the deliverable.”
Sondland wanted to see Zelensky's public statement on the scope of the investigation as including the Bidens which I view as the clear implication in this communication: “To avoid misunderstandings, might be helpful to ask Andrey for a draft statement (embargoed) so that we can see exactly what they propose to cover.” Trump wanted Ukraine to launch investigations before meeting with Zelensky, texts show - The Washington Post
Ukraine text messages: U.S. diplomats spent weeks pushing Ukraine to open investigations into Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, texts show - CBS News
The 7 most explosive exchanges in Trump's Ukraine envoy texts
Trump claimed that he has the absolute right to use the machinery of the U.S. government to coerce foreign nations to interfere in U.S. elections. House and Senate republicans either agree with him or remain silent as Trump's assaults on the rule of law accelerate.
Trump Calls Schiff a 'Low-Life' Who Should Resign - YouTube In this press conference, Trump also said that "they should look at him for treason. "
In Trump's America, someone commits treason by making accurate statements that Donald does not like.
Donald is of course attempting to intimidate witnesses against him from even coming forward, just one of the many tactics used by authoritarians to cement their rule.
Trump's day of rage: Profanity, false accusations and a press spat
9 things Donald Trump got wrong today on Ukraine, a whistleblower and the media | PolitiFact
The Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire testified that the whistleblower's description of Trump's call with Zelensky was in "alignment" with the summary of that call released by Trump.
DNI Joseph Maguire: "The whistleblower's complaint is in alignment with what was released yesterday by the president." The Whistleblower: Trump claims about the whistleblower and whistleblower complaint reviewed and fact-checked - CBS News; Maguire undermined GOP argument against whistleblower in one sentence - Business Insider Trump's Intelligence Chief Defends Whistle-Blower - The Atlantic A video of that testimony is available.
When Disgusting Don was asked about that testimony, and notwithstanding the video evidence and transcript of Maguire's testimony, he denied that the DNI made that statement.
Trump's Inaccurate Claims About His 'Perfect' Call - FactCheck.org
As promised by President Zelensky in his phone call with Trump, Ukraine has opened an investigation. Owner of Firm Tied to Hunter Biden Will Be Subject of Ukraine Prosecutor’s Review - The New York Times This was announced last Friday. On the prior day, the State Department approved the sale of javelins to Ukraine. State Department OKs possible missile sale to Ukraine amid impeachment probe
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When the House passed Article of Impeachment against President Andrew Johnson who succeeded Lincoln, one Article of Impeachment was that Johnson abused his office by making "intemperate, inflammatory, and scandalous harangues”. U.S. Senate: The Impeachment of Andrew Johnson (1868) President of the United States The House had passed Article 10 that goes into specifics. Article X - Andrew Johnson National Historic Site Andrew Johnson's inflammatory harangues were nothing compared to what comes from Donald throughout each week.
++
Trump suggested shooting migrants in the legs, spoke of gator-filled border moat: report-MarketWatch
Donald demanded that the government investigate the feasibility of digging a trench along the Mexican border, filling it with water and liberally sprinkling crocodiles and snakes in the water.
Another suggestion made by Donald, which is clearly Fake News in Trump's America since it was caught on tape, was the following bizarre statements:
Trump: "One of the things with the wall is you need transparency. You have to be able to see through it. In other words, if you can't see through that wall — so it could be a steel wall with openings, but you have to have openings because you have to see what's on the other side of the wall. And I'll give you an example: As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don't see them — they hit you on the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It's over."
TRUMP: Border wall should be see-through so people aren't hit with drugs - Business Insider
Now that sounds like someone who has the brainpower to bankrupt 6 businesses over a relatively short period when he was in his prime.
Trump will have boatloads of cash to spread his false and misleading information during the election season. Trump campaign, RNC raised $125 million in the 3rd quarter
Intelligence community watchdog debunks whistleblower conspiracy pushed by Trump and other Republicans
In recent weeks, the U.S. State Department started to investigate existing and former employees who had sent emails to Hillary when she was Secretary of State. Trump's state department is claiming that information in the emails has been retroactively recategorized as classified and constitutes potential national security violations.
Trump's State Department denies that the investigation is part of Trump's political retribution notwithstanding the timing and three year delay.
Donald's mentally unhinged tweets are an almost daily occurrence:
Trump misquoted the Pastor Robert Jeffress who for some reason has been given a megaphone by Fox. The Pastor actually made this statement: “I’m afraid it will cause a Civil War-like fracture.” Dr. Robert Jeffress on Pelosi calling for prayer over Dems pursuit to impeachment President - YouTube; Trump attacks impeachment accusers in tweets that mentioned civil war: USA Today
Jeffress is an evangelical pastor of a southern baptist congregation in Dallas. On 11/4/2012, this person made the following statements: "President Obama is not the Antichrist. But what I am saying is this: the course he is choosing to lead our nation is paving the way for the future reign of the Antichrist." Texas Megachurch Pastor Says Obama Will 'Pave Way' for Antichrist - The Christian Post Mr. Jeffress is just another bloviating Trumpster.
At Donald's request, Attorney General Barr is currently reexamining the origins of the Russian investigation. Barr is deep into revisionist history and is also completely incapable of acting as anything other than a Trump stooge. Inquiry into origins of Russia investigation is a scam | TheHill; The investigations into the Russia investigations, explained - Vox
Trump personally asked U.K.'s Boris Johnson for help discrediting Mueller report: Times of London - MarketWatch Boris Johnson and Australia's PM are Trumpsters and will do what they can to please Donald.
Trump and Barr are attempting to convince foreign governments to discredit U.S. intelligence agencies. What would the Trumpsters say if a Democrat president did the same?
It is not surprising that Barr buried a criminal referral relating to Donald's conduct sent by the CIA's General Counsel and Trump appointee Courtney Simmons Elwood. CIA's top lawyer made criminal referral on whistleblower's complaint about Trump conduct
The republicans elected reelected two congressman who were under federal indictments. One has now resigned after pleading guilty. Former GOP Rep. Chris Collins pleads guilty to insider trading charges Donald claimed that the federal indictment of Mr. Collins was a witch hunt. President Trump Tweets Criticism of Justice Dept. Over Rep. Duncan Hunter Indictment - NBC 7 San Diego
The only republican politician in Washington who has the guts to say something critical about Trump's conduct is Mitt Romney. The rest of them are cowed by Trump or agree with what he has done in the Ukraine matter. Romney: Trump requesting Biden investigation from China, Ukraine 'wrong and appalling' | TheHill
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CAD Dividend Payments 9/30/19:
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It looks certain now that the House will pass one or more Articles of Impeachment. In the past, this has happened only to two Presidents: Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson. Nixon resigned before the full House voted on impeachment articles.
Unless Donald starts hanging NYT and WP reporters from the White House lawn with Donald personally pulling the lever on live national television, or something more egregious, no more than 3 republican senators IMO will vote to convict. Since 67 out of 100 senators must vote to convict, and there are 53 republican senators, Donald will not be impeached.
2nd Official Is Weighing Whether to Blow the Whistle on Trump’s Ukraine Dealings This official has more direct knowledge than the first whistleblower and was apparently one of persons who provided information to that whistleblower.
The proof has emerged that Donald used the machinery of the U.S. government to coerce Ukraine into investigating the Bidens. Trump wanted Ukraine’s president to launch investigations before face-to-face meeting, State Dept. texts show ("The texts, which former special U.S. envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker provided investigators during a nearly 10-hour deposition Thursday, reveal that officials felt Trump would not agree to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unless Zelensky promised to launch the investigations — and did so public.")
The widespread abuse of presidential power included conditioning (1) military aid and (2) even discussions between Trump and Zelensky on Ukraine publicly agreeing to launch an investigation of the Bidens. There is no doubt that what the investigation had to turn up irrespective of the truth.
U.S. Charges D’affaires in Ukraine William B. “Bill” Taylor texted to Sondland on Sept. 1: “Are we now saying that security assistance and WH meeting are conditioned on investigations? As I said on the phone, I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign.” Several hours later, a lawyered up response claimed there was no "quid pro quo".
Republicans want you to believe that it was simply a coincidence that Donald personally put a hold on military aid to the Ukraine when he was asking its President, as a "favor", to investigate the Bidens.
U.S. Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker to Zelensky's aid Andrey Yermack: “heard from White House — assuming President Z convinces trump he will investigate / ‘get to the bottom of what happened’ in 2016, we will nail down date for visit to Washington.” This text was sent on 7/25, hours before Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky.
Republicans want you to believe that it was simply a coincidence that Donald personally put a hold on military aid to the Ukraine when he was asking its President, as a "favor", to investigate the Bidens.
U.S. Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker to Zelensky's aid Andrey Yermack: “heard from White House — assuming President Z convinces trump he will investigate / ‘get to the bottom of what happened’ in 2016, we will nail down date for visit to Washington.” This text was sent on 7/25, hours before Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky.
Trump involved Pence in efforts to pressure Ukraine’s leader-The Washington Post Early indications are that Donald drew Pence into his scheme.
The foregoing facts will insure that the House will pass articles of impeachment.
All republican senators would vote to convict a democrat president for the same conduct, but I doubt more than 3 will vote to convict Trump in a Senate trial. The three that may vote to convict are Collins, Murkowski, and Romney. Hypocrisy is inbred in almost all of them.
One of the State Department employees enlisted in that effort was Gordon D. Sondland, the U.S. Ambassador to the EU, who qualifications for that job were his substantial contributions made to Trump and other republicans. Sondland met with Zelensky the day after Trump's call on 7/25/19.
So what was this rich republican donor with no prior diplomatic experience, who was the U.S. ambassador to the EU, doing messing with the Ukraine who is not even an EU member? The WP is looking into this angle: Holding Ukraine hostage: How the president and his allies, chasing 2020 ammunition, fanned a political storm - The Washington Post (Within weeks of being selected by Trump as the U.S. point person for the Ukraine, this political money man "was deep into their efforts to consummate a secret political pact between Trump and Zelensky. Texts show the extent to which they explicitly pursued a transaction tying U.S. military aid and a future visit to the White House to a hard commitment from Ukraine to revive a corruption probe of a company, Burisma, that had employed Hunter Biden, the vice president’s son.")
Sondland and Volker prepared a document for President Zelensky to sign where he would publicly acknowledge an investigation of the Bidens. Trump Envoys Pushed Ukraine to Commit to Investigating Biden - The New York Times
In a 8/9/19 text from Sondland to Volker, Sondland emphasized that Trump wanted Zelensky to deliver on the Biden investigation: “I think potus really wants the deliverable.”
Sondland wanted to see Zelensky's public statement on the scope of the investigation as including the Bidens which I view as the clear implication in this communication: “To avoid misunderstandings, might be helpful to ask Andrey for a draft statement (embargoed) so that we can see exactly what they propose to cover.” Trump wanted Ukraine to launch investigations before meeting with Zelensky, texts show - The Washington Post
Ukraine text messages: U.S. diplomats spent weeks pushing Ukraine to open investigations into Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, texts show - CBS News
The 7 most explosive exchanges in Trump's Ukraine envoy texts
Trump claimed that he has the absolute right to use the machinery of the U.S. government to coerce foreign nations to interfere in U.S. elections. House and Senate republicans either agree with him or remain silent as Trump's assaults on the rule of law accelerate.
Trump Calls Schiff a 'Low-Life' Who Should Resign - YouTube In this press conference, Trump also said that "they should look at him for treason. "
In Trump's America, someone commits treason by making accurate statements that Donald does not like.
Donald is of course attempting to intimidate witnesses against him from even coming forward, just one of the many tactics used by authoritarians to cement their rule.
Trump's day of rage: Profanity, false accusations and a press spat
9 things Donald Trump got wrong today on Ukraine, a whistleblower and the media | PolitiFact
The Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire testified that the whistleblower's description of Trump's call with Zelensky was in "alignment" with the summary of that call released by Trump.
DNI Joseph Maguire: "The whistleblower's complaint is in alignment with what was released yesterday by the president." The Whistleblower: Trump claims about the whistleblower and whistleblower complaint reviewed and fact-checked - CBS News; Maguire undermined GOP argument against whistleblower in one sentence - Business Insider Trump's Intelligence Chief Defends Whistle-Blower - The Atlantic A video of that testimony is available.
When Disgusting Don was asked about that testimony, and notwithstanding the video evidence and transcript of Maguire's testimony, he denied that the DNI made that statement.
As promised by President Zelensky in his phone call with Trump, Ukraine has opened an investigation. Owner of Firm Tied to Hunter Biden Will Be Subject of Ukraine Prosecutor’s Review - The New York Times This was announced last Friday. On the prior day, the State Department approved the sale of javelins to Ukraine. State Department OKs possible missile sale to Ukraine amid impeachment probe
+++
When the House passed Article of Impeachment against President Andrew Johnson who succeeded Lincoln, one Article of Impeachment was that Johnson abused his office by making "intemperate, inflammatory, and scandalous harangues”. U.S. Senate: The Impeachment of Andrew Johnson (1868) President of the United States The House had passed Article 10 that goes into specifics. Article X - Andrew Johnson National Historic Site Andrew Johnson's inflammatory harangues were nothing compared to what comes from Donald throughout each week.
++
Trump suggested shooting migrants in the legs, spoke of gator-filled border moat: report-MarketWatch
Donald demanded that the government investigate the feasibility of digging a trench along the Mexican border, filling it with water and liberally sprinkling crocodiles and snakes in the water.
Another suggestion made by Donald, which is clearly Fake News in Trump's America since it was caught on tape, was the following bizarre statements:
Trump: "One of the things with the wall is you need transparency. You have to be able to see through it. In other words, if you can't see through that wall — so it could be a steel wall with openings, but you have to have openings because you have to see what's on the other side of the wall. And I'll give you an example: As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don't see them — they hit you on the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It's over."
TRUMP: Border wall should be see-through so people aren't hit with drugs - Business Insider
Now that sounds like someone who has the brainpower to bankrupt 6 businesses over a relatively short period when he was in his prime.
Trump will have boatloads of cash to spread his false and misleading information during the election season. Trump campaign, RNC raised $125 million in the 3rd quarter
Intelligence community watchdog debunks whistleblower conspiracy pushed by Trump and other Republicans
In recent weeks, the U.S. State Department started to investigate existing and former employees who had sent emails to Hillary when she was Secretary of State. Trump's state department is claiming that information in the emails has been retroactively recategorized as classified and constitutes potential national security violations.
Trump's State Department denies that the investigation is part of Trump's political retribution notwithstanding the timing and three year delay.
Donald's mentally unhinged tweets are an almost daily occurrence:
Jeffress is an evangelical pastor of a southern baptist congregation in Dallas. On 11/4/2012, this person made the following statements: "President Obama is not the Antichrist. But what I am saying is this: the course he is choosing to lead our nation is paving the way for the future reign of the Antichrist." Texas Megachurch Pastor Says Obama Will 'Pave Way' for Antichrist - The Christian Post Mr. Jeffress is just another bloviating Trumpster.
In a Recent Phone Call, Trump Pressed Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison to Help Barr Investigate Mueller Inquiry’s Origins;
Trump asked the Australian prime minister to help investigate Mueller probe origins
Attorney General Barr personally asked foreign officials to aid inquiry into CIA, FBI activities in 2016 Barr is running the investigation with John Durham, a republican attorney, being the front guy to give an appearance of impartiality.
The summary of the call was restricted to an unusually small number of U.S. officials.
Trump asked the Australian prime minister to help investigate Mueller probe origins
Attorney General Barr personally asked foreign officials to aid inquiry into CIA, FBI activities in 2016 Barr is running the investigation with John Durham, a republican attorney, being the front guy to give an appearance of impartiality.
The summary of the call was restricted to an unusually small number of U.S. officials.
The Australian government had informed the U.S. government back in 2016 that Russia had made overtures to the Trump campaign about releasing politically damaging information about Hillary. How the Russia Inquiry Began: A Campaign Aide, Drinks and Talk of Political Dirt - The New York Times This revelation made by George Papadopoulos to Australia's top official in England Alexander Downer.
The clear import of Donald's demand is that the President of the U.S wants the Australian government to retroactively reject the Australians diplomat's report more than 3 years after it was made.
At Donald's request, Attorney General Barr is currently reexamining the origins of the Russian investigation. Barr is deep into revisionist history and is also completely incapable of acting as anything other than a Trump stooge. Inquiry into origins of Russia investigation is a scam | TheHill; The investigations into the Russia investigations, explained - Vox
Trump personally asked U.K.'s Boris Johnson for help discrediting Mueller report: Times of London - MarketWatch Boris Johnson and Australia's PM are Trumpsters and will do what they can to please Donald.
Trump and Barr are attempting to convince foreign governments to discredit U.S. intelligence agencies. What would the Trumpsters say if a Democrat president did the same?
It is not surprising that Barr buried a criminal referral relating to Donald's conduct sent by the CIA's General Counsel and Trump appointee Courtney Simmons Elwood. CIA's top lawyer made criminal referral on whistleblower's complaint about Trump conduct
The republicans elected reelected two congressman who were under federal indictments. One has now resigned after pleading guilty. Former GOP Rep. Chris Collins pleads guilty to insider trading charges Donald claimed that the federal indictment of Mr. Collins was a witch hunt. President Trump Tweets Criticism of Justice Dept. Over Rep. Duncan Hunter Indictment - NBC 7 San Diego
The only republican politician in Washington who has the guts to say something critical about Trump's conduct is Mitt Romney. The rest of them are cowed by Trump or agree with what he has done in the Ukraine matter. Romney: Trump requesting Biden investigation from China, Ukraine 'wrong and appalling' | TheHill
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CAD Dividend Payments 9/30/19:
1. Sold 50 KTN at $32.14-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Structured Products Corp. 8.205% Credit-Enhanced CorTS Overview
Profit Snapshot: +$944.14
Narrow Category: Trust Certificates
Broad Category: Exchange Traded Bonds
Security: Prospectus
Coupon: Fixed at 8.205%
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 1/1/2027
Interest Payments: Semi-Annually
Last Ex Interest: 6/27/19
The annual interest payment on 50 shares is $102.56.
The profit over the $25 par value was $357.15 or about 3.48 years of annual interest payments.
Last Interest Payment Received:
Underlying Bond Prospectus
The underlying is a junior bond currently rated at Baa3/BBB.
FINRA Details for Underlying Bond: Bond Detail
Profit Snapshot: +$944.14
Narrow Category: Trust Certificates
Broad Category: Exchange Traded Bonds
Security: Prospectus
Coupon: Fixed at 8.205%
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 1/1/2027
Interest Payments: Semi-Annually
Last Ex Interest: 6/27/19
The annual interest payment on 50 shares is $102.56.
The profit over the $25 par value was $357.15 or about 3.48 years of annual interest payments.
Last Interest Payment Received:
Underlying Bond Prospectus
The underlying is a junior bond currently rated at Baa3/BBB.
FINRA Details for Underlying Bond: Bond Detail
Prior Buy Discussions:
TRUST CERTIFICATE AON BOND KTN ORDER FILLED 100 shares at $13.1 (10/10/2008 Post)
TRUST CERTIFICATE AON BOND KTN ORDER FILLED 100 shares at $13.1 (10/10/2008 Post)
KTN add at less than $14 (11/24/2008 Post)
Realized Gains-Trust Certificates = $32,445.03
The Trust Certificate niche category of exchange trade bonds is mostly played out except for the synthetic floaters.
I no longer have positions in the synthetic floaters (e.g. GYC, GJP, GYB, GJS, GJT, PYT)
All of those synthetic floaters are in the trust certificate form of legal ownership.
Those securities come in two basic flavors.
One group pays the greater of a minimum coupon or a spread over a short term rate (generally 3 month Libor or the 3 month T Bill).
The second group do not have a minimum coupon but pay a spread over a short term rate. The synthetic floater TCs are complicated securities and most investors need to avoid them IMO.
Most of the fixed coupon TCs were called by the call warrant owners. KTN did not have a call warrant attached to it.
The Trust Certificates were bought fairly heavily by me during 2008-2009 since their yields were generally about 2% to 3% higher than the underlying bonds.
Their main disadvantage was the existence of the call warrant that caped the upside potential in a declining rate environment and ended up in most of these securities being redeemed at the $25 par value.
2. Bought 50 ING at $10.49-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quotes:
USD ADR: ING Groep N.V. ADR Overview
Euro: ING Groep N.V. (Netherlands)
Closing Price Last Friday: ING $10.12 +$0.10 +1.00%
Website: Home | ING
About ING:
ING offers wholesale and retail banking. The main markets are the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.
ING | ING Groep N.V. ADR Analyst Estimates
I have not owned ING stock for over a decade which has worked out just fine as shown in the following long term chart:
ING had to be bailed out by the Dutch government during the Near Depression period which came at a cost.
I did for a time trade its hybrid securities. ING Hybrids: Links in one Post (profit snapshots = +$2,117.96) I have not owned any of the hybrids for several years. Most of them have been called by ING.
Dividend: Semi-Annually
ING Group, N.V. Common Stock (ING) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/9/19
Dividend Yield: Will depend on the EUR/USD conversion rate.
Based on the last two semi-annual payments of US$.76 per share, the dividend yield at $10.49 would be about 7.245% before the Netherlands withholding tax.
Provided the investor's broker files a relief at source claim for a U.S. citizen, the Netherlands can not withhold more than 15% as a dividend tax. Article 10 Tax Treaty
Tax Relief Services for Income Payments | DTCC
The annual dividend amount has been increasing in Euros:
Dividend Per ADR:
Last Earnings Report:
ING posts 2Q2019 net result of €1,438 million
Research Reports:
Morningstar (8/5/19): 5 stars with a fair value of $16.6
S & P (9/10/19): 5 stars with a 12 month PT of $15
S & P forecasts 2019 E.P.S. at €1.35 and at €1.4 for 2020. The positives cited include a strong capital base (CET1 ratio), low efficiency ratio and higher return on equity compared to its peers.
Cost Income Ratio:
CET1 Ratio:
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1): An Overview
Capital ratios at Europe's largest banks, Q1'19 | S&P Global Market Intelligence
Credit Ratings:
Ratings | ING
Maximum Position: 200 shares
Current Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next 50 share buy likely between $9.5 to $9.99)
Realized Gains-Trust Certificates = $32,445.03
The Trust Certificate niche category of exchange trade bonds is mostly played out except for the synthetic floaters.
I no longer have positions in the synthetic floaters (e.g. GYC, GJP, GYB, GJS, GJT, PYT)
All of those synthetic floaters are in the trust certificate form of legal ownership.
Those securities come in two basic flavors.
One group pays the greater of a minimum coupon or a spread over a short term rate (generally 3 month Libor or the 3 month T Bill).
The second group do not have a minimum coupon but pay a spread over a short term rate. The synthetic floater TCs are complicated securities and most investors need to avoid them IMO.
Most of the fixed coupon TCs were called by the call warrant owners. KTN did not have a call warrant attached to it.
The Trust Certificates were bought fairly heavily by me during 2008-2009 since their yields were generally about 2% to 3% higher than the underlying bonds.
Their main disadvantage was the existence of the call warrant that caped the upside potential in a declining rate environment and ended up in most of these securities being redeemed at the $25 par value.
2. Bought 50 ING at $10.49-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quotes:
USD ADR: ING Groep N.V. ADR Overview
Euro: ING Groep N.V. (Netherlands)
Closing Price Last Friday: ING $10.12 +$0.10 +1.00%
Website: Home | ING
About ING:
ING offers wholesale and retail banking. The main markets are the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.
ING | ING Groep N.V. ADR Analyst Estimates
I have not owned ING stock for over a decade which has worked out just fine as shown in the following long term chart:
ING had to be bailed out by the Dutch government during the Near Depression period which came at a cost.
I did for a time trade its hybrid securities. ING Hybrids: Links in one Post (profit snapshots = +$2,117.96) I have not owned any of the hybrids for several years. Most of them have been called by ING.
Dividend: Semi-Annually
ING Group, N.V. Common Stock (ING) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/9/19
Dividend Yield: Will depend on the EUR/USD conversion rate.
Based on the last two semi-annual payments of US$.76 per share, the dividend yield at $10.49 would be about 7.245% before the Netherlands withholding tax.
Provided the investor's broker files a relief at source claim for a U.S. citizen, the Netherlands can not withhold more than 15% as a dividend tax. Article 10 Tax Treaty
Tax Relief Services for Income Payments | DTCC
The annual dividend amount has been increasing in Euros:
Last Earnings Report:
ING posts 2Q2019 net result of €1,438 million
Research Reports:
Morningstar (8/5/19): 5 stars with a fair value of $16.6
S & P (9/10/19): 5 stars with a 12 month PT of $15
S & P forecasts 2019 E.P.S. at €1.35 and at €1.4 for 2020. The positives cited include a strong capital base (CET1 ratio), low efficiency ratio and higher return on equity compared to its peers.
Cost Income Ratio:
CET1 Ratio:
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1): An Overview
Capital ratios at Europe's largest banks, Q1'19 | S&P Global Market Intelligence
Credit Ratings:
Ratings | ING
Maximum Position: 200 shares
Current Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next 50 share buy likely between $9.5 to $9.99)
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 2 J P Morgan 2.55% SU Maturing on 10/29/20-In a Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: $14.67
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 JPM 2020 SU at a Total Cost of 99.499 (3/6/19 Post) YTM was then at 2.855%.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Sold at 100.591
YTM at 100.591 = 1.985%
B. Sold 2 Bank of Nova Scotia 2.35% SU Maturing on 10/21/20:
Profit Snapshot: +$29.7
FINRA Snapshot: Bond Detail
Issuer: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
Sold at 100.531
YTM at 100.531 = 1.87%
C. Early Issuer Redemption:
For my 1 bond, Marathon Oil made a $4 make whole payment but accrued and unpaid interest.
Item # 2.B. Bought 1 MRO 2.7% SU Maturing on 6/1/2020 at a TC of 99.915 (5/15/19 Post)
D. Bought at Auction 5 Treasury 3 Month Bills Maturing on 12/12/19:
1.987%IR
Auction Results
C. Early Issuer Redemption:
For my 1 bond, Marathon Oil made a $4 make whole payment but accrued and unpaid interest.
Item # 2.B. Bought 1 MRO 2.7% SU Maturing on 6/1/2020 at a TC of 99.915 (5/15/19 Post)
D. Bought at Auction 5 Treasury 3 Month Bills Maturing on 12/12/19:
1.987%IR
3. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 1 of 3 Post Apartments L.P. 3.375% SU Maturing on 12/1/22-In A Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: +$30.61
Item # 3.A. Bought 1 Post Apartments 2022 SU at a Total Cost of 99.798 (3/10/19 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Post Apartments was acquired by Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA)
MAA and Post complete merger
MAA SEC Filings
Mid America Apartments - Corporate Profile
Sold at 103.059
YTM at 103.059 = 2.306%
The other two bonds are held in a taxable account.
4. Sold 100 PWCDF at $22.03:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares (pink sheet exchange): Power Corp. of Canada (PWCDF)
CAD Priced Shares (Toronto exchange): Power Corp. of Canada Stock Quote (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price Last Friday: PWCDF US$22.33 +$0.18 +0.84%
A. Sold 1 of 3 Post Apartments L.P. 3.375% SU Maturing on 12/1/22-In A Roth IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: +$30.61
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Post Apartments was acquired by Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA)
MAA and Post complete merger
MAA SEC Filings
Mid America Apartments - Corporate Profile
Sold at 103.059
YTM at 103.059 = 2.306%
The other two bonds are held in a taxable account.
4. Sold 100 PWCDF at $22.03:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares (pink sheet exchange): Power Corp. of Canada (PWCDF)
CAD Priced Shares (Toronto exchange): Power Corp. of Canada Stock Quote (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price Last Friday: PWCDF US$22.33 +$0.18 +0.84%
Profit Snapshot: +$110.05
Item # 1 Bought 100 PWCDF at US$20.83 (5/29/19 Post)
3 Year History This Account:
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.405 (C$1.62 annually), increased by 6% effective for the 2019 second quarter payment. Power Corporation of Canada | Dividends
Canada will withhold a 15% tax when this stock is held in a taxable account:
In the past, I have recovered foreign dividend taxes as tax credits.
I received two quarterly dividend payments. I view this stock primarily as a dividend harvest candidate.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/6/19 (before sell)
Prior Trading History:
Item # 4.A. Sold 100 PWCDF at $23.56 (7/22/17)-Item # 3.A. Bought 100 PWDCF at $22.14 (5/28/17 Post)
Item # 1 Bought 100 PWCDF at US$20.83 (5/29/19 Post)
3 Year History This Account:
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.405 (C$1.62 annually), increased by 6% effective for the 2019 second quarter payment. Power Corporation of Canada | Dividends
Canada will withhold a 15% tax when this stock is held in a taxable account:
In the past, I have recovered foreign dividend taxes as tax credits.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/6/19 (before sell)
Item # 4.A. Sold 100 PWCDF at $23.56 (7/22/17)-Item # 3.A. Bought 100 PWDCF at $22.14 (5/28/17 Post)
Item # 1. Sold 400 POW:TO at C$31.05: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (USD Profit = $360.45)
Item # 2 Sold 100 PWCDF at $28.07 (11/22/14 Post) (profit snapshot=+$210.03)-Bought Back Power Corporation Of Canada At $25.81
Item # 5 SOLD Taxable Accounts: 100 PWCDF at $28.83 (8/2/14 Post)(profit snapshot+$138.71)-Item # 4 Bought 100 PWCDF at $27.29 (7/12/14 Post)
Victory in PWCDF trades is defined as (1) selling at profit after (2) collecting one or more quarterly dividends and (3) buying the stock back at a lower price than the previous purchase without missing a dividend payment. The last purchase price was $20.83 and the next ex dividend date will be in December.
I still own 100 shares of Power Financial, which went ex dividend on 9/27/19. Power Corporation has a majority ownership interest in Power Financial.
Item # 2 Bought 50 POFNF at US$20.96 (8/14/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Bought 50 PWF:CA at C$25.5 (1/23/19 Post)
Prior Round Trip in Power Financial: Item # 4.A. Bought 50 PWF:CA at C$27.73 (12/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$161)-Item # 2.A. Sold 50 of 100 PWF:CA at C$30.99 (3/31/19 Post)
5. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 FFHPRD at C$16.32:
Closing Price Last Friday: FFH-PD.TO C$16.31 -C$0.24 -1.45%
I discussed this one in my 9/28/19 post. Item # 2 Bought 50 FFHPRD at C$16.84
I now own 100 shares at an average total cost per share of C$16.6.
This one pays quarterly cumulative dividends at a 3.15% spread to the 3 month Canadian government bill. Par value is C$25.
Quote: Canada 3 Month
This purchase is part of a long game and a hedge an unexpected rise in short term interest rates and inflation. The long game is based on a reasonable probability that the 3 month Canadian bill will hit 4% within 10 years. When and if that happens, the coupon at a 4% reset +3.15% would be 7.15% which becomes a 10.77% yield at a total cost of C$16.6. Assuming no material change in the issuer's credit risk, the opportunity to sell at a material percentage profit would be present. In the meantime, I am satisfied with the current yield.
Victory in PWCDF trades is defined as (1) selling at profit after (2) collecting one or more quarterly dividends and (3) buying the stock back at a lower price than the previous purchase without missing a dividend payment. The last purchase price was $20.83 and the next ex dividend date will be in December.
I still own 100 shares of Power Financial, which went ex dividend on 9/27/19. Power Corporation has a majority ownership interest in Power Financial.
Item # 2 Bought 50 POFNF at US$20.96 (8/14/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Bought 50 PWF:CA at C$25.5 (1/23/19 Post)
Prior Round Trip in Power Financial: Item # 4.A. Bought 50 PWF:CA at C$27.73 (12/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$161)-Item # 2.A. Sold 50 of 100 PWF:CA at C$30.99 (3/31/19 Post)
5. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 FFHPRD at C$16.32:
Closing Price Last Friday: FFH-PD.TO C$16.31 -C$0.24 -1.45%
I discussed this one in my 9/28/19 post. Item # 2 Bought 50 FFHPRD at C$16.84
I now own 100 shares at an average total cost per share of C$16.6.
This one pays quarterly cumulative dividends at a 3.15% spread to the 3 month Canadian government bill. Par value is C$25.
Quote: Canada 3 Month
This purchase is part of a long game and a hedge an unexpected rise in short term interest rates and inflation. The long game is based on a reasonable probability that the 3 month Canadian bill will hit 4% within 10 years. When and if that happens, the coupon at a 4% reset +3.15% would be 7.15% which becomes a 10.77% yield at a total cost of C$16.6. Assuming no material change in the issuer's credit risk, the opportunity to sell at a material percentage profit would be present. In the meantime, I am satisfied with the current yield.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
In my Fidelity account, I was looking at CD rates offered by banks this morning. I had to go out to 2024 to find one offering 2%.
ReplyDeleteThe 30 year treasury bond closed at a 2.01% yield last Friday:
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
If bought at that yield and held to maturity, I would view it as highly likely that the average annual real return would be less than zero before taxes.
Before taxes and inflation, it would take 34.83 years to double money at a 2.01% yield.
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/rule72.htm
I am buying stocks now that have 4%+ yields. I am purchasing stocks now that I have not owned for over a decade or have never owned in my yield search.
In my next post, I will discuss OXY which has about a 7.34% yield at last Friday's closing price of $43.07. I am up to 13 shares with the last 3 shares bought last Friday. Prior to purchased those shares, I had never had a position. My maximum limit is 30 shares using the small ball purchase restriction.
OXY has a lot of issues and Brad Thomas discusses them adequately in a SA article that is not yet behind a paywall:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4295157-occidental-petroleum-3-things-investors-need-know-7_4-percent-yielding-stock
I would not view the OXY dividend as "safe" but I do not now foresee a cut this year or in 2020. If someone could tell me what energy prices will be each day for the next 5 years, I would have a more informed opinion on the subject.
+++
Another whistleblower has come forward.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2nd-whistleblower-forward-speaking-ig-attorney/story?id=66092396
There will be more.
The republicans will attack all whistleblowers who come forward providing information that contradicts the spin and reality creations being peddled by Donald and other republican politicians.
In TrumpWorld, whatever Donald says is true and can not be undermined or contradicted with facts.
And the false narratives advanced by republicans on the Ukraine matter will be believed by millions even when they are contradicted by documents produced by the Trump Administration.
I saw a poll conducted shortly before Obama left office. Even then, only 25% of the republicans believed he was born in the U.S. It is a total waste of time to use reliable information to contradict reality creations. A person who is immersed in an alternate reality and is susceptible to factually baseless conspiracy theories can not be reached with reliable information like a birth certificate or a Honolulu newspaper notice of a birth.
If only he'd been born in Ohio... Over there in Hawaii's there's always a chance he was born in the water outside of bounds, making their concerns very valid. And hence they keep pursuing them. So they can impeach and remove HIM from office now. (I'm not sure they wouldn't.)
DeleteI have a theory. Trump did not come up with birtherism. It's based on knowledgeable history. On what happened after civil war with citizenship for ex-slaves. I wonder if Putin studied US history & found a weak spot. Or someone else did and gave it to Trump. It's both a weak spot, a racism this country had about citizenship... but not well known enough for the public to recognize and dismiss it (i.e. birtherism claims) outright and quickly because it was a well known trope. I find it hard to believe Trump came up with something with this much sophistication.
Land: The reality creation that Obama was not born in the U.S. originated prior to Trump becoming the most well known proponent. Donald realized that he could use that issue to gain support among republicans who never came to terms with a black man becoming President, though many of them dressed their opposition up in non-racist covers.
DeleteThe origin was primarily the "conservative" wingnut websites.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_citizenship_conspiracy_theories
Aah. Interesting.
DeleteI still can't believe we have a president who reads Alex Jones. Years ago online when I ran into antisemites, they'd reference him and it was an easy way to know who was a total loon. It'd was a known name among Jewish folks - yah, that bigoted nut. Then he adds the Sandy hook and other crazy claims that are so emotionally horrible.
The selling out for so called power, is still hard to believe. How does someone sleep at night when they are that scared of their own shadow? They can get another job.
Schwab's commission free trading for U.S. stocks and ETFs started today. I will now used that broker to implement my small ball trading.
ReplyDeleteI still have about 250 commission free trades at Fidelity that I secured by moving money into that account. Fidelity has not responded to the commission free trade offers offered by E Trade, TD Ameritrade and Schwab and still has its regular $4.95 commission rate for stocks. I suspect that Fidelity will keep its commissions unless it announces this week that it will go to zero. That broker may be waiting to see how much money is lost to the commission free brokers.
Fidelity has apparently dropped the trade and quote ticker that appears at the bottom of each page. That box has been missing from my account starting last Friday. Customer service says it "may" have been eliminated which is a negative since I use it as a
convenience throughout the trading day. If it has been dropped, that would be a cost saving for Fidelity that is privately owned. It is interesting the publicly traded brokers are doing more for their customers. Schwab provides valuable stock research reports from S & P, Argus, Morningstar and Credit Suisse while Fidelity offers garbage other than Argus.
Solar Senior Capital Ltd (SUNS)
ReplyDelete$17.12 -$0.23 -1.33%
I read a BDZ Buzz SA article over the weekend where he changed his SUNS recommendation to sell.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4295124-time-sell-solar-senior-capital
I arrived at the same judgment call when I sold my remaining shares at $17.34:
Item # 4 https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_8.html
As with several BDCs now, it was my opinion that SUNS did not deserve a premium price to its net asset value per share. This is always a judgment call and may be proved wrong or right by subsequent events. The opinion does have a factual basis, including the net asset value per share history, net investment income history ("NII"), dividend coverage with NII, loan defaults and problem loans.
BDC Buzz is predicting a write-down in the loan to American Teleconferencing Services.
Note that for the Q/E 6/30/19, other BDCs valued their first lien loans to that company at between 60% to 65% of the loan amount while SUNS valued it at 96%. That is a red flag.
I have traded SUNS several times in small amounts as is my custom with BDCs. I am not likely to establish a position at a price greater than its last reported net asset value per share and with a NII cushion to the dividend rate.
The last reported net asset value per share was at $16.3 as of 6/30/19.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1508171/000119312519212984/d762693d10q.htm
I have no desire to dabble in any BDCs. :). They are only trading vehicles and only if you have more of a clue than I do.
DeleteSince I finished writing my next post early, I decided to publish it today.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_8.html