Economy:
The Stock Jocks got all excited last Friday when Donald announced that China and the U.S. had entered into a "very substantial Phase 1" trade deal. Trump says US has come to a substantial phase one deal with China
In exchange for Donald suspending a 5% increase on the 25% U.S. tariffs, China agreed to buy up to $50B in U.S. agricultural products that it needs.
All existing U.S. tariffs remain in effect. The new ones scheduled to go into effect next December were not suspended.
The details of whatever is included in "Phase 1" will be negotiated in the coming weeks.
I would delete "very substantial" from Donald's characterization and add "preliminary" before Phase 1 and add "of an unknown number of Phases" after Phase 1.
The Stock Jocks overreacted to this development last Friday, as I discussed in a prior comment. The result is a positive nonetheless in that matters did not get worse with the imposition of additional tariffs.
More cold water was thrown on the best deal every negotiated since the Big Bang after China asked for another meeting before signing off on Phase 1. China reportedly wants the U.S. to forgo the new tariffs scheduled for December. China wants another round of talks before signing phase one of the trade deal, source says
Don’t get too excited about progress on Trump’s ‘greatest and biggest deal ever’ - MarketWatch
When the Stock Jocks become nervous about whether the Trump Administration is being truthful about the true status of the trade negotiations, Donald will quickly dispatch Kudlow or Mnuchin to soothe investors and to provide reassurance that a resolution is near, thereby restoring the warm and fuzzy feeling.
Mnuchin: US, China have a 'fundamental agreement' that is 'subject to documentation' (interview with CNBC's Betsy Quick before Monday's open) Mnuchin represented that he believes a Phase 1 agreement will be signed soon. If no deal is signed, the new tariffs will go into effect in December. Mnuchin: Tariffs likely to go up in December if there is no China deal
I am not inclined to believe Mnuchin and do not regard him as trustworthy. When and if a Phase 1 agreement is actually signed, I will rely on expert and independent opinions on whether the agreement is as substantial as claimed by Mnuchin.
Donald has probably being told, though he would never admit it, that the U.S. tariffs are contributing to the economy's ongoing slowdown.
Nothing material has changed with the agreement in principle to negotiate a limited agreement will change the adverse economic impacts flowing from the ongoing trade wars. IMF says trade war will cut global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago
Trade deal: Morgan Stanley warns tariff escalation remains a 'meaningful risk'
What Chinese media are saying about the partial trade deal with the US There are some suggestions in those comments that Donald can not be trusted, which is the only conclusion that any informed and rational person could make.
In exchange for Donald suspending a 5% increase on the 25% U.S. tariffs, China agreed to buy up to $50B in U.S. agricultural products that it needs.
All existing U.S. tariffs remain in effect. The new ones scheduled to go into effect next December were not suspended.
The details of whatever is included in "Phase 1" will be negotiated in the coming weeks.
I would delete "very substantial" from Donald's characterization and add "preliminary" before Phase 1 and add "of an unknown number of Phases" after Phase 1.
The Stock Jocks overreacted to this development last Friday, as I discussed in a prior comment. The result is a positive nonetheless in that matters did not get worse with the imposition of additional tariffs.
More cold water was thrown on the best deal every negotiated since the Big Bang after China asked for another meeting before signing off on Phase 1. China reportedly wants the U.S. to forgo the new tariffs scheduled for December. China wants another round of talks before signing phase one of the trade deal, source says
Don’t get too excited about progress on Trump’s ‘greatest and biggest deal ever’ - MarketWatch
When the Stock Jocks become nervous about whether the Trump Administration is being truthful about the true status of the trade negotiations, Donald will quickly dispatch Kudlow or Mnuchin to soothe investors and to provide reassurance that a resolution is near, thereby restoring the warm and fuzzy feeling.
Mnuchin: US, China have a 'fundamental agreement' that is 'subject to documentation' (interview with CNBC's Betsy Quick before Monday's open) Mnuchin represented that he believes a Phase 1 agreement will be signed soon. If no deal is signed, the new tariffs will go into effect in December. Mnuchin: Tariffs likely to go up in December if there is no China deal
I am not inclined to believe Mnuchin and do not regard him as trustworthy. When and if a Phase 1 agreement is actually signed, I will rely on expert and independent opinions on whether the agreement is as substantial as claimed by Mnuchin.
Donald has probably being told, though he would never admit it, that the U.S. tariffs are contributing to the economy's ongoing slowdown.
Nothing material has changed with the agreement in principle to negotiate a limited agreement will change the adverse economic impacts flowing from the ongoing trade wars. IMF says trade war will cut global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago
Trade deal: Morgan Stanley warns tariff escalation remains a 'meaningful risk'
What Chinese media are saying about the partial trade deal with the US There are some suggestions in those comments that Donald can not be trusted, which is the only conclusion that any informed and rational person could make.
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The rally yesterday was due mostly to the earnings reports from large financial institutions and to recent positive spin on a potential soft Brexit. Earnings season gets off to a great start with only two misses
However, the positive vibes on Brexit turned negative overnight. Brexit talks stall on final day before crucial EU summit
Nobel winner Robert Shiller: A recession that could discredit Trump looms large - MarketWatch
The rally yesterday was due mostly to the earnings reports from large financial institutions and to recent positive spin on a potential soft Brexit. Earnings season gets off to a great start with only two misses
However, the positive vibes on Brexit turned negative overnight. Brexit talks stall on final day before crucial EU summit
Nobel winner Robert Shiller: A recession that could discredit Trump looms large - MarketWatch
Wall Street has doubts after partial trade deal I would not call it a partial "deal" but an agreement to negotiate a partial deal that appears to by hyped as to its significance by Donald and Mnuchin.
Bank earnings preview: The good times are coming to an end - MarketWatch One positive is that the banks have been able to lower their deposit costs as short term interest rates declined. And, some investment assets owned by banks have appreciated in value due to the recent rapid decline in interest rates. Overall, however, the flattening and inversions of yield curve have been and will likely continue to be for some time, a net negative for most banks.
JPMorgan Chase earnings Q3 2019 post record revenue (up 8%) and E.P.S. of $2.68, or 23 cents above consensus estimate
Citigroup earnings Q3 2019-E.P.S. at $1.97, two cents above consensus
Wells Fargo earnings Q3 2019-E.P.S. at $1.12 or 3 cents below consensus
Goldman Sachs Earnings Q3 2019 misses consensus estimate by 2 cents
Investors flock to money markets at highest rate since the crisis ($322B inflow over the past 6 months)
Boeing 737 Max grounding enters eighth month, driving up airline costs
This ETF can protect you from S&P 500 volatility and enhance your long-term returns - MarketWatch; Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF Overview (PTLC) The ETF engages in market timing based on 200 day moving average
+++++
Portfolio Management:
Bonds and stocks are not looking so hot now. In short, just about every alternative sucks, with the differences being one of decree.
The yields available from new bond investments are so unappealing to me now that I am not even bothering to look anymore for possible purchases.
The Stock Jocks are valuing stocks as if there is no chance whatsoever of a recession developing within the next several years. Negative economic news is either ignored or quickly dismissed and forgotten.
Given the yields of investment quality bonds including $15 trillion or so of negative nominal yields, it is understandable that investors are bidding up stocks even as E.P.S. growth stagnates or turns negative year over year without recessionary conditions. Profits expected to fall as earnings season kicks off
I am increasingly parking proceeds from maturing fixed coupon securities into short term treasury bills and CDs.
I will be discussing those purchases already made over the next several posts, but I am already slowing that reallocation down to a trickle given the current yields.
Currently, for example, there are no CDs available for purchase at my brokers that pay 2% or more and mature before 2023.
Wells Fargo is currently offering a 2% CD maturing in 2023. There are a few CDs maturing in 2024 with a 2.05% coupon.
At 2%, it would take 35 years for money to double before an inflation adjustment to arrive at a real rate of return and any state and federal income taxes. The Rule of 72 (with calculator) - Estimate Compound Interest
The 20 year treasury bond is yielding close to 2%. Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
The short term treasury bills have declined in yields due to the FED lowering its FF rate and to the expectation that more cuts will follow the ones already made.
I am making some minor stock investments using the small ball trading rules and commission free trades that permit averaging down in a cost effective manner.
I currently have the stocks listed in the following snapshot under the "small ball buying program". Any subsequent purchase of a stock listed below has to be at a price lower than the price indicated:
This trading strategy is primarily a risk mitigation one. The selection process is focused on dividend paying stocks as bond substitutes.
Consideration will be given to selling the highest cost lots when I can do so profitably. Some stocks will be eliminated entirely when my objectives are met.
JPMorgan Chase earnings Q3 2019 post record revenue (up 8%) and E.P.S. of $2.68, or 23 cents above consensus estimate
Citigroup earnings Q3 2019-E.P.S. at $1.97, two cents above consensus
Wells Fargo earnings Q3 2019-E.P.S. at $1.12 or 3 cents below consensus
Goldman Sachs Earnings Q3 2019 misses consensus estimate by 2 cents
Investors flock to money markets at highest rate since the crisis ($322B inflow over the past 6 months)
Boeing 737 Max grounding enters eighth month, driving up airline costs
This ETF can protect you from S&P 500 volatility and enhance your long-term returns - MarketWatch; Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF Overview (PTLC) The ETF engages in market timing based on 200 day moving average
+++++
Portfolio Management:
Bonds and stocks are not looking so hot now. In short, just about every alternative sucks, with the differences being one of decree.
The yields available from new bond investments are so unappealing to me now that I am not even bothering to look anymore for possible purchases.
The Stock Jocks are valuing stocks as if there is no chance whatsoever of a recession developing within the next several years. Negative economic news is either ignored or quickly dismissed and forgotten.
Given the yields of investment quality bonds including $15 trillion or so of negative nominal yields, it is understandable that investors are bidding up stocks even as E.P.S. growth stagnates or turns negative year over year without recessionary conditions. Profits expected to fall as earnings season kicks off
I am increasingly parking proceeds from maturing fixed coupon securities into short term treasury bills and CDs.
I will be discussing those purchases already made over the next several posts, but I am already slowing that reallocation down to a trickle given the current yields.
Currently, for example, there are no CDs available for purchase at my brokers that pay 2% or more and mature before 2023.
Wells Fargo is currently offering a 2% CD maturing in 2023. There are a few CDs maturing in 2024 with a 2.05% coupon.
At 2%, it would take 35 years for money to double before an inflation adjustment to arrive at a real rate of return and any state and federal income taxes. The Rule of 72 (with calculator) - Estimate Compound Interest
The 20 year treasury bond is yielding close to 2%. Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
The short term treasury bills have declined in yields due to the FED lowering its FF rate and to the expectation that more cuts will follow the ones already made.
I am making some minor stock investments using the small ball trading rules and commission free trades that permit averaging down in a cost effective manner.
I currently have the stocks listed in the following snapshot under the "small ball buying program". Any subsequent purchase of a stock listed below has to be at a price lower than the price indicated:
Consideration will be given to selling the highest cost lots when I can do so profitably. Some stocks will be eliminated entirely when my objectives are met.
+++++++
Trump:
President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading claims over 993 days - The Washington Post Trumpsters will never accept that statistic or any number higher than 200 as an aggregate average IMO.
Moody's: Trump on his way to an easy 2020 win if economy holds up
My feel is that virtually all Trumpsters are still with Donald. Some will be shaken off in the event the economy is in a recession on election day. A few supporters have been lost in rural areas due to the tariff war with China.
I live in a solid Trump state and a city (Brentwood) that is overwhelmingly pro-Trump, though republicans have mild reservations about his personality.
Criticism of the Duck, no matter how warranted, just makes Trumpsters angry. Facts make them angry as well. It is impossible to have a fact based discussion with them on any topic touched by republican ideology. They exist in an impenetrable Alternate Reality bubble.
They are also angry with the impeachment inquiry and even more pro-Trump as a result.
Those observations are drawn from my conversations, polls and news articles like this one published yesterday. Americans divided: Neighbors turn enemies over Trump in swing-vote Michigan suburbs - Reuters
Voters who disapproved of him on election day have had their disapproval repeatedly and frequently reconfirmed and substantially enhanced based on his conduct since the election.
The main change since November 2016 is that the marginal Trump voters are increasingly fatigued by his conduct, even if they agree with all or most of his policies, and are reluctant to give him another four years.
It remains to be seen whether the Democrats will provide a suitable alternative to Trump for those voters. I doubt that they will.
Donald, Giuliani, the GOP Conspiracy Machine and the Ukraine:
Donald continues to hype his Alternate Reality version of his telephone call with Zelensky and events related thereto. He is repeating over and over again that the inquiry is based on the Democrat' "FRAUD AND FABRICATION".
Fiona Hill, Trump’s former top Russia adviser, to testify in House’s impeachment probe - The Washington Post ("Fiona Hill, the White House’s former top Russia adviser, told impeachment investigators on Monday that Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, ran a shadow foreign policy in Ukraine that circumvented U.S. officials and career diplomats in order to personally benefit President Trump.")
White House tried to limit what former Russia aide Fiona Hill could say to Congress, letters show
Bolton Objected to Ukraine Pressure Campaign, Calling Giuliani ‘a Hand Grenade’ ("Mr. Bolton got into a tense exchange on July 10 with Gordon D. Sondland, the Trump donor turned ambassador to the European Union, who was working with Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, to press Ukraine to investigate Democrats, according to three people who heard the testimony.")
Bolton wanted White House lawyers alerted to Ukrainian efforts, called it 'drug deal,' witness tells Congress
Bolton Called Giuliani 'A Hand Grenade' For Opening Back Channel With Ukraine: NPR; John Bolton: Rudy Giuliani Is a ‘Hand Grenade’: Report
Indicted Giuliani associate worked on behalf of Ukrainian oligarch Firtash - Reuters;
How Dmytro Firtash Seized Giuliani’s Biden Attacks to Fight Extradition to the U.S.
Exclusive: Trump lawyer Giuliani was paid $500,000 to consult on indicted associate's firm
The Department of Justice identified Firtash to be among the “upper echelon associates of Russian organized crime”, which he denies along with all U.S. criminal charges against him. Ukrainian Oligarch Dmitry Firtash Linked to Trump's Circle | Time
Here Are the Republicans — So Far — Connected to Rudy Giuliani’s Arrested Ukrainian Client
Giuliani will not comply with House impeachment subpoena | PBS NewsHour
Worth a read: The Invention of the Conspiracy Theory on Biden and Ukraine by Jane Mayer | The New Yorker
If you want to know how these claims are fabricated for political purposes, Mayer identifies the perps who hatched the Ukraine-Biden conspiracy fabrication.
Those responsible have and will continue to include Trump; Steve Bannon and his Government Accountability Institute funded by the far right extremists Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah Mercer; Peter Schweizer; Rudy Giuliani as a prime mover; and John Solomon.
The made up conspiracy theories are then propagated nationwide by Sean Hannity, Martha MacCallum and others at Fox along with assorted conspiracy wingnuts who have large followings on the internet, frequently make considerable amounts of money propagating conspiracy theories to the uninformed and gullible, and consequently say ka-ching whenever a new one is hatched.
More on John Soloman, Peter Schweizer and the Mercers:
The Reclusive Hedge-Fund Tycoon Behind the Trump Presidency | The New Yorker
Staffers at The Hill press management about the work of John Solomon - The Washington Post;
Wash. Times' new executive editor, John Solomon, has history of distortion | Media Matters for America;
Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics: at pages 173-176 (Oxford University Press);
John Solomon: How a conservative columnist helped push a flawed Ukraine narrative - The Washington Post;
THE SPY WHO WASN'T THERE - The Washington Post
Clinton Cash Author Peter Schweizer's Long History Of Errors, Retractions, And Questionable Sourcing | Media Matters for America
Watch Chris Hayes and New Yorkers Jane Mayer expose the media's failure in promoting Peter Schweizer and his conspiracies | Media Matters for America
Jane Mayer's book Dark Money is also instructive on manipulation techniques used by right wing billionaires and their self-styled "conservative" apparatchiks who make a lot of money peddling this crap.
The Trumpsters are easily manipulated by these characters.
Trump’s envoy to testify that ‘no quid pro quo’ came from Trump; Gordon Sondland is about to blow a hole in Trump’s Ukraine defense Sondland, a major donor to Trump and a political appointee with no prior diplomatic experience, is reportedly going to testify that he knew nothing about Trump and Giuliani's plan to coerce the Ukraine into investigating the Bidens, notwithstanding Giuliani's frequent public statements that were widely disseminated.
Sondland is reportedly just shocked, really and truly shocked, that the investigation demands involved the Bidens, a claim that requires one to believe Sondland was actually confined to a desert island with no media access for several months during the relevant period.
Lutsenko is unnamed Ukrainian who led plot to oust Yovanovitch, says official
At least four national security officials raised alarms about Ukraine policy before and after Trump call with Ukrainian president
Trump Had Marie Yovanovitch Removed on ‘False Claims,’ She Tells House Inquiry - The New York Times She was ordered by Trump to disobey the subpoena, but she appeared and gave testimony anyway. An order from Pompeo is an order from Trump. Marie Yovanovitch says Trump ousted her over ‘unfounded and false claims’ - POLITICO; Marie Yovanovitch, Recalled U.S. Ambassador To Ukraine, Testifies : NPR
Trump claimed it will be up to his boy Pompeo whether Ms. Yovanovitch will be fired as a State Department employee after ignoring the Duck's order to refrain from cooperating with the impeachment inquiry. Trump: It’s Up to Pompeo if Marie Yovanovitch Keeps Her Job
‘A great big money party’: Foreign efforts to influence Trump keep piling up
Hunter Biden Steps Down from Chinese Board Amid Trump Attacks; Exclusive: Hunter Biden defends foreign ventures, admits making ‘mistake’ politically
Donald's attorneys at the Department of Justice are doing what they can to block Donald's accounting firm from responding to a lawful subpoena from the Manhattan D.A.. Trump Taxes: Justice Dept. Asks Judges to Block Subpoena I would note that Trump did not receive a subpoena to produce his tax returns. The subpoena was served on his accounting firm.
In Trump's America, no one can investigate Donald. Trump renews claim that he is immune from criminal investigation in effort to block Manhattan DA probe - The Washington Post
Trump adviser Michael Pillsbury gives conflicting accounts on whether Chinese offered information about Hunter Biden
President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading claims over 993 days - The Washington Post Trumpsters will never accept that statistic or any number higher than 200 as an aggregate average IMO.
Moody's: Trump on his way to an easy 2020 win if economy holds up
My feel is that virtually all Trumpsters are still with Donald. Some will be shaken off in the event the economy is in a recession on election day. A few supporters have been lost in rural areas due to the tariff war with China.
I live in a solid Trump state and a city (Brentwood) that is overwhelmingly pro-Trump, though republicans have mild reservations about his personality.
Criticism of the Duck, no matter how warranted, just makes Trumpsters angry. Facts make them angry as well. It is impossible to have a fact based discussion with them on any topic touched by republican ideology. They exist in an impenetrable Alternate Reality bubble.
They are also angry with the impeachment inquiry and even more pro-Trump as a result.
Those observations are drawn from my conversations, polls and news articles like this one published yesterday. Americans divided: Neighbors turn enemies over Trump in swing-vote Michigan suburbs - Reuters
Voters who disapproved of him on election day have had their disapproval repeatedly and frequently reconfirmed and substantially enhanced based on his conduct since the election.
The main change since November 2016 is that the marginal Trump voters are increasingly fatigued by his conduct, even if they agree with all or most of his policies, and are reluctant to give him another four years.
It remains to be seen whether the Democrats will provide a suitable alternative to Trump for those voters. I doubt that they will.
Donald, Giuliani, the GOP Conspiracy Machine and the Ukraine:
Donald continues to hype his Alternate Reality version of his telephone call with Zelensky and events related thereto. He is repeating over and over again that the inquiry is based on the Democrat' "FRAUD AND FABRICATION".
Fiona Hill, Trump’s former top Russia adviser, to testify in House’s impeachment probe - The Washington Post ("Fiona Hill, the White House’s former top Russia adviser, told impeachment investigators on Monday that Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, ran a shadow foreign policy in Ukraine that circumvented U.S. officials and career diplomats in order to personally benefit President Trump.")
White House tried to limit what former Russia aide Fiona Hill could say to Congress, letters show
Bolton Objected to Ukraine Pressure Campaign, Calling Giuliani ‘a Hand Grenade’ ("Mr. Bolton got into a tense exchange on July 10 with Gordon D. Sondland, the Trump donor turned ambassador to the European Union, who was working with Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, to press Ukraine to investigate Democrats, according to three people who heard the testimony.")
Bolton wanted White House lawyers alerted to Ukrainian efforts, called it 'drug deal,' witness tells Congress
Bolton Called Giuliani 'A Hand Grenade' For Opening Back Channel With Ukraine: NPR; John Bolton: Rudy Giuliani Is a ‘Hand Grenade’: Report
Indicted Giuliani associate worked on behalf of Ukrainian oligarch Firtash - Reuters;
How Dmytro Firtash Seized Giuliani’s Biden Attacks to Fight Extradition to the U.S.
Exclusive: Trump lawyer Giuliani was paid $500,000 to consult on indicted associate's firm
Here Are the Republicans — So Far — Connected to Rudy Giuliani’s Arrested Ukrainian Client
Giuliani will not comply with House impeachment subpoena | PBS NewsHour
Worth a read: The Invention of the Conspiracy Theory on Biden and Ukraine by Jane Mayer | The New Yorker
If you want to know how these claims are fabricated for political purposes, Mayer identifies the perps who hatched the Ukraine-Biden conspiracy fabrication.
Those responsible have and will continue to include Trump; Steve Bannon and his Government Accountability Institute funded by the far right extremists Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah Mercer; Peter Schweizer; Rudy Giuliani as a prime mover; and John Solomon.
The made up conspiracy theories are then propagated nationwide by Sean Hannity, Martha MacCallum and others at Fox along with assorted conspiracy wingnuts who have large followings on the internet, frequently make considerable amounts of money propagating conspiracy theories to the uninformed and gullible, and consequently say ka-ching whenever a new one is hatched.
More on John Soloman, Peter Schweizer and the Mercers:
The Reclusive Hedge-Fund Tycoon Behind the Trump Presidency | The New Yorker
Staffers at The Hill press management about the work of John Solomon - The Washington Post;
Wash. Times' new executive editor, John Solomon, has history of distortion | Media Matters for America;
Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics: at pages 173-176 (Oxford University Press);
John Solomon: How a conservative columnist helped push a flawed Ukraine narrative - The Washington Post;
THE SPY WHO WASN'T THERE - The Washington Post
Clinton Cash Author Peter Schweizer's Long History Of Errors, Retractions, And Questionable Sourcing | Media Matters for America
Watch Chris Hayes and New Yorkers Jane Mayer expose the media's failure in promoting Peter Schweizer and his conspiracies | Media Matters for America
Jane Mayer's book Dark Money is also instructive on manipulation techniques used by right wing billionaires and their self-styled "conservative" apparatchiks who make a lot of money peddling this crap.
The Trumpsters are easily manipulated by these characters.
Trump’s envoy to testify that ‘no quid pro quo’ came from Trump; Gordon Sondland is about to blow a hole in Trump’s Ukraine defense Sondland, a major donor to Trump and a political appointee with no prior diplomatic experience, is reportedly going to testify that he knew nothing about Trump and Giuliani's plan to coerce the Ukraine into investigating the Bidens, notwithstanding Giuliani's frequent public statements that were widely disseminated.
Sondland is reportedly just shocked, really and truly shocked, that the investigation demands involved the Bidens, a claim that requires one to believe Sondland was actually confined to a desert island with no media access for several months during the relevant period.
Lutsenko is unnamed Ukrainian who led plot to oust Yovanovitch, says official
At least four national security officials raised alarms about Ukraine policy before and after Trump call with Ukrainian president
Trump Had Marie Yovanovitch Removed on ‘False Claims,’ She Tells House Inquiry - The New York Times She was ordered by Trump to disobey the subpoena, but she appeared and gave testimony anyway. An order from Pompeo is an order from Trump. Marie Yovanovitch says Trump ousted her over ‘unfounded and false claims’ - POLITICO; Marie Yovanovitch, Recalled U.S. Ambassador To Ukraine, Testifies : NPR
Trump claimed it will be up to his boy Pompeo whether Ms. Yovanovitch will be fired as a State Department employee after ignoring the Duck's order to refrain from cooperating with the impeachment inquiry. Trump: It’s Up to Pompeo if Marie Yovanovitch Keeps Her Job
‘A great big money party’: Foreign efforts to influence Trump keep piling up
The Trumpster Senator Cory Gardner (R-Colorado) refused to answer five times a question about whether it was proper for a U.S. President to request a foreign government to investigate a political rival. Cory Gardner declines to say whether Trump's Ukraine call was wrong; GOP senator refuses to answer Trump Ukraine question five times
Gardner is facing a difficult reelection in 2020 with his likely opponent being Colorado's former governor John Hickenloop. John Hickenlooper's Senate fundraising outpaces presidential campaign
Gardner is facing a difficult reelection in 2020 with his likely opponent being Colorado's former governor John Hickenloop. John Hickenlooper's Senate fundraising outpaces presidential campaign
Hunter Biden Steps Down from Chinese Board Amid Trump Attacks; Exclusive: Hunter Biden defends foreign ventures, admits making ‘mistake’ politically
++
Don the Authoritarian:
In Trump's America, no one can investigate Donald. Trump renews claim that he is immune from criminal investigation in effort to block Manhattan DA probe - The Washington Post
Trump adviser Michael Pillsbury gives conflicting accounts on whether Chinese offered information about Hunter Biden
U.S. appeals court clears way for House to obtain Trump's financial records - Reuters The decision was 2 to 1 with a Trump nominated judge in the dissent.
Don the Authoritarian is basically claiming that no one can investigate him.
In resisting the Manhattan D.A.'s subpoena served on his accountants, the Duck says only Congress can charge him with crimes as part of the impeachment process.
When Congress seeks to compel documents and testimony in an impeachment inquiry, the Duck changes his tune and asserts that he does not have to comply.
The greatest danger to America's freedoms and democracy comes from within.
++
Trump and the Middle East:
According to a NYT investigation, Russia has deliberately pursued a policy of bombing hospitals and clinics as part of its strategy to assist the like minded dictator Assad. 12 Hours. 4 Syrian Hospitals Bombed. One Culprit: Russia.
Trump orders withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria, days after Pentagon downplays possibility - The Washington Post
U.S. to evacuate troops from northern Syria
Retired 4 Star Marine Gen. John Allen: 'There is blood on Trump's hands for abandoning our Kurdish allies'
Russia is common thread between Trump's Ukraine and Syria problems The common thread is that Trump helps Putin and vice versa. Trump's abandonment of the Kurds dovetails perfectly with Russia's strong support for the dictator Assad.
The Daily 202: Trump hands Putin another win with Syria pullout - The Washington Post
Turkish-led forces film themselves executing a Kurdish captive in Syria - The Washington Post
US leaves behind dozens of high-value ISIS detainees as Turkey rolls through Syria
ISIS plans prison escape from Kurdish jails after US left area to Turkey; Isis militants break out of prison in Syria after bombing by Turkey | The Independent
Humanitarian crisis unfolds as violence escalates in Syria
How the U.S. Military Will Carry Out a Hasty, Risky Withdrawal From Syria
One area where Donald is not carrying Putin's water in the Middle East is U.S. support for Saudi Arabia, one of the most detestable allies in America's repertoire. Trump administration will send more forces to Saudi Arabia
Don the Authoritarian is basically claiming that no one can investigate him.
In resisting the Manhattan D.A.'s subpoena served on his accountants, the Duck says only Congress can charge him with crimes as part of the impeachment process.
When Congress seeks to compel documents and testimony in an impeachment inquiry, the Duck changes his tune and asserts that he does not have to comply.
The greatest danger to America's freedoms and democracy comes from within.
++
Trump and the Middle East:
According to a NYT investigation, Russia has deliberately pursued a policy of bombing hospitals and clinics as part of its strategy to assist the like minded dictator Assad. 12 Hours. 4 Syrian Hospitals Bombed. One Culprit: Russia.
Trump orders withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria, days after Pentagon downplays possibility - The Washington Post
U.S. to evacuate troops from northern Syria
Retired 4 Star Marine Gen. John Allen: 'There is blood on Trump's hands for abandoning our Kurdish allies'
Russia is common thread between Trump's Ukraine and Syria problems The common thread is that Trump helps Putin and vice versa. Trump's abandonment of the Kurds dovetails perfectly with Russia's strong support for the dictator Assad.
The Daily 202: Trump hands Putin another win with Syria pullout - The Washington Post
Turkish-led forces film themselves executing a Kurdish captive in Syria - The Washington Post
US leaves behind dozens of high-value ISIS detainees as Turkey rolls through Syria
ISIS plans prison escape from Kurdish jails after US left area to Turkey; Isis militants break out of prison in Syria after bombing by Turkey | The Independent
Humanitarian crisis unfolds as violence escalates in Syria
How the U.S. Military Will Carry Out a Hasty, Risky Withdrawal From Syria
One area where Donald is not carrying Putin's water in the Middle East is U.S. support for Saudi Arabia, one of the most detestable allies in America's repertoire. Trump administration will send more forces to Saudi Arabia
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$17.85:
Quote: BMO-PS.TO
Closing Price Yesterday: BMO-PS.TO C$17.76 -C$0.08 -0.45%
Issuer: Bank of Montreal
BMO | Bank of Montreal Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations | BMO Financial Group
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 2.33% Spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond yield
Last Reset: April 2019
Coupon: 3.852% commencing on 5/25/19 and ending on 5/24/2024
A. Bought 50 BMOPRS at C$17.85:
Quote: BMO-PS.TO
Closing Price Yesterday: BMO-PS.TO C$17.76 -C$0.08 -0.45%
Issuer: Bank of Montreal
BMO | Bank of Montreal Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations | BMO Financial Group
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 2.33% Spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond yield
Last Reset: April 2019
Coupon: 3.852% commencing on 5/25/19 and ending on 5/24/2024
Dividends are Non-Cumulative. I have been avoiding non-cumulative bank preferred stocks for awhile now, but decided to nibble on this investment grade rated one. I will not be buying more shares.
Currently, BMO's preferred shares are rated Baa3/BBB. Credit Ratings
The prospectus can be accessed by following the link starting with this one: Preferred Shares or this PDF link.
For now, I am buying Canadian reset equity preferred stocks with my idle CADs. I will not consider converting the CAD stash back into USDs at less than CAD/USD .8.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
I am continuing to stagger short term treasury bills.
I want a continuous flow of proceeds to take advantage of whatever opportunities may arise in the future.
I do not want to sell something just to have funds to buy something else.
If I see no alternatives consistent with my financial objectives and risk tolerances, then it is no trouble to reinvest the proceeds into more short term treasury bills.
The 1, 2, 3 and 6 month Treasury bills are auctioned weekly. It is also easy to buy treasury bills in the secondary market. I do not pay brokerage commissions for buying treasuries at auction or in the secondary market.
I am continuing to stagger short term treasury bills.
I want a continuous flow of proceeds to take advantage of whatever opportunities may arise in the future.
I do not want to sell something just to have funds to buy something else.
If I see no alternatives consistent with my financial objectives and risk tolerances, then it is no trouble to reinvest the proceeds into more short term treasury bills.
The 1, 2, 3 and 6 month Treasury bills are auctioned weekly. It is also easy to buy treasury bills in the secondary market. I do not pay brokerage commissions for buying treasuries at auction or in the secondary market.
A. Bought 3 Treasury Bills Maturing on 2/20/20 (secondary market purchase):
YTM = 1.906%
B. Bought 2 Treasury 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 2/29/20 (secondary market purchase):
YTM: 1.907%
C. Bought at Auction 6 Month Treasury Bills Maturing on 3/26/20:
IR = 1.909%
Auction Results:
D. Bought 2 Valley National 2% CDs Maturing on 1/2/20 (3 month CDs):
Issuer Valley National Bancorp
E. Bought 3 Bank of Ozarks 2% CDs Maturing on 1/2/20 in a Roth IRA Account (3 month CDs):
Holding Company Bank OZK (OZK)
OZK | Bank OZK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
3. Small Ball - Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
Issuer Valley National Bancorp
E. Bought 3 Bank of Ozarks 2% CDs Maturing on 1/2/20 in a Roth IRA Account (3 month CDs):
Holding Company Bank OZK (OZK)
OZK | Bank OZK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
3. Small Ball - Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 70 AKBA at $3.98 (commission free trade):
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
Closing Price Yesterday: AKBA $4.3200 +$0.1750 +4.22%
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (high risk)
With Lotto Tickets, the possibility of a total or near total loss is present.
AKBA Info Day of Purchase:
Website: Akebia | Pioneering Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF) Therapies
SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report
Pipeline: The Clinical Trials involve one drug, Vadadustat, that is being investigated for multiple indications for patient with renal anemia.
This is an average down from a 30 share purchase: Item # 1.A. Bought 30 AKBA at $7.82- Used Commission free trade (8/26/19 Post)
Current and Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Prior Round-Trip: Item # 4.A. Sold 30 AKBA at $15.27 (8/22/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $181.03)-Item # 3.A. Bought at $9.17 on 3/30/17
Average Cost Per Share = $5.13
Chart Since IPO:
Investors have soured on AKBA as reflected in the preceding chart. I would characterize the negativity as being justified, though it may be a bit too thick at its current price.
Potential Catalyst: Akebia Therapeutics Announces Submission of Vadadustat New Drug Application in Japan for Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease by Collaboration Partner, MTPC
Competing Drug:
Akebia's stock has come under selling pressure due the progress being made by a competing drug Roxadustat.
Roxadustat is discussed by AKBA's CEO John Butler at page 7 of the Oh Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript.
Roxadustat approved in China for the treatment of anaemia in non-dialysis-dependent patients with chronic kidney disease (8/22/19 Astra Zeneca Press Release); Evrenzo® (roxadustat) Tablets Approved in Japan for the Treatment of Anemia Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease in Dialysis Patients (9/20/19 Press Release from Astellas).
This drug was discovered by FibroGen Inc. (FGEN); see also FibroGen down 21% after hours on disappointing roxadustat data - FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) | Seeking Alpha That story was published on 5/9/2019.
I would be highly critical of AKBA's very slow movement toward regulatory approval for its competing drug Vadadustat, losing its first mover advantage to Fibrogen's drug in China and Japan. I view that as a major negative for AKBA.
H.C. Wainwright Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)(PT of $17) My guess is that PT is wishful thinking, but not entirely outside of the realm of possibility. May not know one way or the other before 2022.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19):
Akebia Therapeutics Reports Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results
"The Company ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale securities of $136.8 million. “As we continue to effectively manage and leverage our operations, we expect our cash resources, including committed research and development funding from collaborators, to fund our current operating plan beyond the next twelve months, into the third quarter of 2020.”
The company acquired an approved drug, Auryxia, through its acquisition of Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
"Auryxia net product revenue for the second quarter of 2019 was $29.1 million, compared to $24.1 million, as reported by Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (Keryx) prior to its merger with the Company, during the same period in 2018. This represents a 20.7 percent increase in net product revenue from the second quarter of 2018 and a 26 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2019. Auryxia is the Company’s FDA approved oral iron tablet to treat non-dialysis dependent adult CKD patients for IDA and dialysis-dependent adult CKD patients for hyperphosphatemia."
My guess is that the company will need to do a major share public offering in early 2020, probably after Japan grants marketing approval for vadadustat as a treatment for anemia due to CKD, assuming of course that approval is forthcoming.
If the new drug application is rejected by Japan, then I would anticipate that the stock will quickly move under $2.
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
Closing Price Yesterday: AKBA $4.3200 +$0.1750 +4.22%
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (high risk)
With Lotto Tickets, the possibility of a total or near total loss is present.
AKBA Info Day of Purchase:
Website: Akebia | Pioneering Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF) Therapies
SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report
Pipeline: The Clinical Trials involve one drug, Vadadustat, that is being investigated for multiple indications for patient with renal anemia.
This is an average down from a 30 share purchase: Item # 1.A. Bought 30 AKBA at $7.82- Used Commission free trade (8/26/19 Post)
Current and Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Prior Round-Trip: Item # 4.A. Sold 30 AKBA at $15.27 (8/22/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $181.03)-Item # 3.A. Bought at $9.17 on 3/30/17
Average Cost Per Share = $5.13
Chart Since IPO:
Investors have soured on AKBA as reflected in the preceding chart. I would characterize the negativity as being justified, though it may be a bit too thick at its current price.
Potential Catalyst: Akebia Therapeutics Announces Submission of Vadadustat New Drug Application in Japan for Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease by Collaboration Partner, MTPC
Competing Drug:
Akebia's stock has come under selling pressure due the progress being made by a competing drug Roxadustat.
Roxadustat is discussed by AKBA's CEO John Butler at page 7 of the Oh Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript.
Roxadustat approved in China for the treatment of anaemia in non-dialysis-dependent patients with chronic kidney disease (8/22/19 Astra Zeneca Press Release); Evrenzo® (roxadustat) Tablets Approved in Japan for the Treatment of Anemia Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease in Dialysis Patients (9/20/19 Press Release from Astellas).
This drug was discovered by FibroGen Inc. (FGEN); see also FibroGen down 21% after hours on disappointing roxadustat data - FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) | Seeking Alpha That story was published on 5/9/2019.
I would be highly critical of AKBA's very slow movement toward regulatory approval for its competing drug Vadadustat, losing its first mover advantage to Fibrogen's drug in China and Japan. I view that as a major negative for AKBA.
H.C. Wainwright Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)(PT of $17) My guess is that PT is wishful thinking, but not entirely outside of the realm of possibility. May not know one way or the other before 2022.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19):
Akebia Therapeutics Reports Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results
"The Company ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale securities of $136.8 million. “As we continue to effectively manage and leverage our operations, we expect our cash resources, including committed research and development funding from collaborators, to fund our current operating plan beyond the next twelve months, into the third quarter of 2020.”
The company acquired an approved drug, Auryxia, through its acquisition of Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
"Auryxia net product revenue for the second quarter of 2019 was $29.1 million, compared to $24.1 million, as reported by Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (Keryx) prior to its merger with the Company, during the same period in 2018. This represents a 20.7 percent increase in net product revenue from the second quarter of 2018 and a 26 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2019. Auryxia is the Company’s FDA approved oral iron tablet to treat non-dialysis dependent adult CKD patients for IDA and dialysis-dependent adult CKD patients for hyperphosphatemia."
My guess is that the company will need to do a major share public offering in early 2020, probably after Japan grants marketing approval for vadadustat as a treatment for anemia due to CKD, assuming of course that approval is forthcoming.
If the new drug application is rejected by Japan, then I would anticipate that the stock will quickly move under $2.
Other News:
Akebia Files Lawsuit Against CMS for 2018 Action Rescinding Medicare Part D Coverage of FDA-Approved Auryxia® for its Iron Deficiency Anemia Indication and Imposing a Prior Authorization Requirement for its Hyperphosphatemia Indication (10/15/19 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Full Enrollment of its Global Phase 3 Program of Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease (9/3/19 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Positive Top-Line Results from Two Pivotal Phase 3 Studies of Vadadustat in Japanese Patients with Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease (3/12/19 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Complete Merger, Creating Fully Integrated Renal Company (12/13/18 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals to Merge, Creating a Fully Integrated Company Focused on the Development and Commercialization of Therapeutics for Patients with Kidney Disease (6/28/18 Press Release)
The stock has popped in the past when AKBA announced partner deals for vadadustat but that is past history now since the deals have been signed. See pages 19-28 of the 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19 for summaries of agreements with partners. The questions now are whether the milestones will be hit and whether the drug is successful when and if marketing approvals are secured. I lack the knowledge to make a prediction.
4. Small Ball-Income Generation-All Commission Free Trades:
A. Started "Small Ball Buying Program" in CVA-Bought 25 at $16.9; 5 at $16.66; 5 at $16.4 and 15 at $16.25:
Quote: Covanta Holding Corp. (CVA)
Closing Price Yesterday: CVA $16.26 -$0.16 -0.97%
This stock has been in a dive mode since it went ex dividend for its quarterly distribution.
Website: Powering Today. Protecting Tomorrow. - Covanta
Our Facilities - Covanta (some are located in England)
Covanta Holding Corporation - Investor Relations
This stock is a component of the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF which I discussed buying in a prior post. Item # 4.A. (10/11/19 Post)
Covanta operates large scale energy-from-waste projects. Revenues are generated through collection of tip fees for taking the waste, electricity sales, and recycling operations.
Quote from Press Release: "Annually, Covanta's modern Energy-from-Waste facilities safely convert approximately 21 million tons of waste from municipalities and businesses into clean, renewable electricity to power one million homes and recycle over 600,000 tons of metal."
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25
Average Cost 50 Shares = $16.63
Dividend Yield at $16.63: 6.01%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/26/19 (before purchases)
Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Dividend Reinvestment: No, until I hit 100 shares and then I will simply consider the reinvestment option
CVA 10 Year Chart (as of 10/15/19):
CVA Info Day of Last Purchase (10/15/19):
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19) :
2019 Guidance:
Free cash flow is after routine maintenance expenditures.
Covanta Holding Corporation Reports 2019 Second Quarter Results And Revises 2019 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
CVA is far from a GAAP earnings machine now. CVA may be well positioned in the future when municipalities run out of places that they can economically deposit garbage.
5 year Financial Data:
2018 Annual Report at page 35
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Current Position: 50 shares
Purchases Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)
Prior Trades: None, currently looking far and wide for income generating stocks that have not skyrocketed in price
Brokerage Reports: I have access to only one.
Credit Suisse (8/13/19): Neutral with a PT of $17.
Other recent news:
Covanta Holding Corporation Announces Closing of Tax-Exempt Green Bonds due 2039 (8/22/19)("closing of $50 million in new tax-exempt bonds, issued through the Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority, with a 20-year maturity and a coupon of 3.25%.")
Covanta Holding Corporation Announces Closing of Senior Notes due 2027 (10/18/18)("$400 million aggregate principal amount of 6.000% senior notes due 2027"); FINRA Page
Credit Ratings: Deep into Junk
Risk Summary: Pages 22 - 32 (viewed as significant)
Insiders Selling
Goal: 6%+ total annual return, potentially achievable with a dividends and slender profit on the shares
B. Bought 20 of the BDC FDUS at $14.5:
Quote: Fidus Investment Corp.
Website: Fidus
SEC Filings
I am discussing this purchase out of time context.
Chart Since IPO:
FDUS Info Day of Purchase (10/11/19)
Management: External, viewed as a negative
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.C. Sold 52 FDUS at $15.15 (3/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.88)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.A. Bought 50 FDUS at $13.87 and 30 at $12.63 (12/19/18 Post) I still own those shares in my Schwab account where I am reinvesting the dividends.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 or $1.56 annually (currently not earned with NII)
As of 6/30/19, FDUS estimated it had $.67 per share in spillover income that could be used to support the payout. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/5/19
Fidus Investment Corporation (FDUS) Dividend Date & History - Nasdaq
Dividend Yield at $14.5 = 10.76%
Dividend Reinvestment: Not in this account, but will continue to reinvest in the Schwab account.
Goal: Any net profit on the shares + harvesting 4 or more quarterly dividends
Net Asset Value Per Share History (good for an externally managed BDC):
6/30/19: $16.29
12/31/18: $16.47
9/30/18: $16.41
3/30/18 $16.28
12/31/17 $16.05
12/31/16 $15.76
12/31/15 $15.17
12/31/14 $15.16
12/31/13 $15.35
12/21/12 $15.32
IPO at $15 June 2011
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19):
"Adjusted net investment income represents net investment income excluding any capital gains incentive fee expense or (reversal) attributable to realized and unrealized gains and losses." This incentive fee is paid annually. If a quarter contains a reversal of this unpaid incentive fee, due to a realized capital loss, the adjusted net investment income (NII) number will be higher than the GAAP number but lower than NII GAAP when an incentive fee expense is accrued.
Recent SU Baby Bond IPO:
Fidus Investment Corporation Prices Public Offering of $55,000,000 5.375% Notes due 2024
In the prospectus for this offering, FDUS offered some guidance on its third quarter results which have not yet been reported:
That guidance is disappointing and caused Raymond James to downgrade its rating from strong buy to buy and reduced the priced target by $1 to $16. Fidus Investment downgraded to Outperform, target cut to $16 at Raymond James FDUS - The Fly I do not have access to that report but would have the same negative view as the Raymond James analyst on this guidance. A dividend cut is not likely soon given the spillover income number but the failure to earn the dividend with NII will eventually require a dividend cut.
Some of the recent NII shortfalls is due to loan defaults. Q2 2019 Results l Transcript | Seeking Alpha at pp. 2-3, 6
Risk Summary: 10-K (starts at page 33 and ends at page 60)
One of the major risks which is difficult for individual investors to evaluate is whether the loan valuations are made in good faith or are close to being accurate even when the external managers are exercising good faith.
Maximum Position This Account: 100 Shares
Current Position: 20 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
5. Elimination:
A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35:
Quote: Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV (U.S. Pink Sheets: CJREF)
Website: Corus Entertainment
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy (high risk)
Profit Snapshot: +$60.99
Item # 1.B. Bought 100 CJREF at $3.74 (9/7/2019 Post)
10 Year Chart: Ugly in the Extreme
I will keep this one on a short lease.
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.06 per share
I received one quarterly dividend payment. Dividends - Corus Entertainment
With commission free trades now being offered by Fidelity and Schwab, there will be more dividend harvest trades in common stocks. Most of the trades will not be discussed in this blog since it would just be too time consuming.
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $5.64-Used Commission Free Trade(5/8/19 Post)
Akebia Files Lawsuit Against CMS for 2018 Action Rescinding Medicare Part D Coverage of FDA-Approved Auryxia® for its Iron Deficiency Anemia Indication and Imposing a Prior Authorization Requirement for its Hyperphosphatemia Indication (10/15/19 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Full Enrollment of its Global Phase 3 Program of Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease (9/3/19 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Positive Top-Line Results from Two Pivotal Phase 3 Studies of Vadadustat in Japanese Patients with Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease (3/12/19 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Complete Merger, Creating Fully Integrated Renal Company (12/13/18 Press Release)
Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals to Merge, Creating a Fully Integrated Company Focused on the Development and Commercialization of Therapeutics for Patients with Kidney Disease (6/28/18 Press Release)
The stock has popped in the past when AKBA announced partner deals for vadadustat but that is past history now since the deals have been signed. See pages 19-28 of the 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19 for summaries of agreements with partners. The questions now are whether the milestones will be hit and whether the drug is successful when and if marketing approvals are secured. I lack the knowledge to make a prediction.
4. Small Ball-Income Generation-All Commission Free Trades:
A. Started "Small Ball Buying Program" in CVA-Bought 25 at $16.9; 5 at $16.66; 5 at $16.4 and 15 at $16.25:
Quote: Covanta Holding Corp. (CVA)
Closing Price Yesterday: CVA $16.26 -$0.16 -0.97%
This stock has been in a dive mode since it went ex dividend for its quarterly distribution.
Website: Powering Today. Protecting Tomorrow. - Covanta
Our Facilities - Covanta (some are located in England)
Covanta Holding Corporation - Investor Relations
This stock is a component of the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF which I discussed buying in a prior post. Item # 4.A. (10/11/19 Post)
Covanta operates large scale energy-from-waste projects. Revenues are generated through collection of tip fees for taking the waste, electricity sales, and recycling operations.
Quote from Press Release: "Annually, Covanta's modern Energy-from-Waste facilities safely convert approximately 21 million tons of waste from municipalities and businesses into clean, renewable electricity to power one million homes and recycle over 600,000 tons of metal."
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25
Average Cost 50 Shares = $16.63
Dividend Yield at $16.63: 6.01%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/26/19 (before purchases)
Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Dividend Reinvestment: No, until I hit 100 shares and then I will simply consider the reinvestment option
CVA 10 Year Chart (as of 10/15/19):
CVA Info Day of Last Purchase (10/15/19):
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19) :
2019 Guidance:
Free cash flow is after routine maintenance expenditures.
Covanta Holding Corporation Reports 2019 Second Quarter Results And Revises 2019 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
CVA is far from a GAAP earnings machine now. CVA may be well positioned in the future when municipalities run out of places that they can economically deposit garbage.
5 year Financial Data:
2018 Annual Report at page 35
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Current Position: 50 shares
Purchases Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)
Prior Trades: None, currently looking far and wide for income generating stocks that have not skyrocketed in price
Brokerage Reports: I have access to only one.
Credit Suisse (8/13/19): Neutral with a PT of $17.
Other recent news:
Covanta Holding Corporation Announces Closing of Tax-Exempt Green Bonds due 2039 (8/22/19)("closing of $50 million in new tax-exempt bonds, issued through the Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority, with a 20-year maturity and a coupon of 3.25%.")
Covanta Holding Corporation Announces Closing of Senior Notes due 2027 (10/18/18)("$400 million aggregate principal amount of 6.000% senior notes due 2027"); FINRA Page
Credit Ratings: Deep into Junk
Risk Summary: Pages 22 - 32 (viewed as significant)
Insiders Selling
Goal: 6%+ total annual return, potentially achievable with a dividends and slender profit on the shares
B. Bought 20 of the BDC FDUS at $14.5:
Quote: Fidus Investment Corp.
Website: Fidus
SEC Filings
I am discussing this purchase out of time context.
Chart Since IPO:
 |
| As of 10/11/19 |
Management: External, viewed as a negative
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.C. Sold 52 FDUS at $15.15 (3/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.88)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.A. Bought 50 FDUS at $13.87 and 30 at $12.63 (12/19/18 Post) I still own those shares in my Schwab account where I am reinvesting the dividends.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 or $1.56 annually (currently not earned with NII)
As of 6/30/19, FDUS estimated it had $.67 per share in spillover income that could be used to support the payout. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/5/19
Fidus Investment Corporation (FDUS) Dividend Date & History - Nasdaq
Dividend Yield at $14.5 = 10.76%
Dividend Reinvestment: Not in this account, but will continue to reinvest in the Schwab account.
Goal: Any net profit on the shares + harvesting 4 or more quarterly dividends
Net Asset Value Per Share History (good for an externally managed BDC):
6/30/19: $16.29
12/31/18: $16.47
9/30/18: $16.41
3/30/18 $16.28
12/31/17 $16.05
12/31/16 $15.76
12/31/15 $15.17
12/31/14 $15.16
12/31/13 $15.35
12/21/12 $15.32
IPO at $15 June 2011
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19):
Recent SU Baby Bond IPO:
Fidus Investment Corporation Prices Public Offering of $55,000,000 5.375% Notes due 2024
In the prospectus for this offering, FDUS offered some guidance on its third quarter results which have not yet been reported:
That guidance is disappointing and caused Raymond James to downgrade its rating from strong buy to buy and reduced the priced target by $1 to $16. Fidus Investment downgraded to Outperform, target cut to $16 at Raymond James FDUS - The Fly I do not have access to that report but would have the same negative view as the Raymond James analyst on this guidance. A dividend cut is not likely soon given the spillover income number but the failure to earn the dividend with NII will eventually require a dividend cut.
Some of the recent NII shortfalls is due to loan defaults. Q2 2019 Results l Transcript | Seeking Alpha at pp. 2-3, 6
Risk Summary: 10-K (starts at page 33 and ends at page 60)
One of the major risks which is difficult for individual investors to evaluate is whether the loan valuations are made in good faith or are close to being accurate even when the external managers are exercising good faith.
Maximum Position This Account: 100 Shares
Current Position: 20 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
5. Elimination:
A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35:
Quote: Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV (U.S. Pink Sheets: CJREF)
Website: Corus Entertainment
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy (high risk)
Profit Snapshot: +$60.99
10 Year Chart: Ugly in the Extreme
I will keep this one on a short lease.
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.06 per share
I received one quarterly dividend payment. Dividends - Corus Entertainment
With commission free trades now being offered by Fidelity and Schwab, there will be more dividend harvest trades in common stocks. Most of the trades will not be discussed in this blog since it would just be too time consuming.
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $5.64-Used Commission Free Trade(5/8/19 Post)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Do you think the stock jocks will be bothered when they figure out the deal isn't a deal, just a concession with damages already caused?
ReplyDeleteOr as long as it's not an escalating trade war - will conclude it's positive/ignoreable?
Were earnings good enough to paint any changes to the earnings and grow picture that's been forming?
I am glad to see people willing to testify. I still don't understand 1) anyone who wasn't 2) why some people aren't in jail until they do.
It's been a long week. More when I'm more able.
Land: For whatever reason or reasons, the Stock Jocks remain unconcerned about the trade war with China. This may be due to the following factors: (1) the dispute will be resolved soon and (2) the damage to the U.S. economy is limited to certain sectors and will be temporary since the dispute will soon be resolved.
DeleteThe U.S. economy is far more dependent on consumer spending than on exports, which is a key component supporting that consensus opinion. U.S. consumer spending is still holding up.
Regarding the failure to comply with subpoenas, Congress has to depend on AG Barr to seek criminal contempt charges and he is part of the coverup.
Congress does have the option to file a civil motion to compel in a federal district court, but that would take a year or so to finally resolve.
Trump has made the calculation that the Senate will not convict on any article of impeachment, including his obstruction of the inquiry on frivolous legal grounds, and consequently there is nothing to lose by withholding information pertinent to the impeachment inquiry.
More document production and witness testimony would only hurt his reelection chances and possibly convince 1 to 3 republican senators to vote for impeachment.
I didn't get google notification, strange.
DeleteWell then consumer spending it the thing to consider for when it's time to stop being invested. It'd seem to be a slightly leading indicator to earnings.
For small change chasers Marcus (Goldman Sachs) has a 1 year CD paying 2.25%. A regular saving account at CIT Bank is paying 2.1% and they are usually very consistent in paying one of the the best rates on the market. Still after taxes and inflation they are all effectively value losing propositions.
ReplyDeleteContemplating a 4% float GS-D as I can ride out December like dips w/o any problems, also GGN-B a 5% pref with A2 rating currently at par and 5.3% HFRO-A another highly rated A1 pref. Comments?
WG: The GS 1 year CD rate is better than the ones offered by my brokers.
Deletehttps://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/high-yield-cds
I may take advantage of it but have been reluctant to open yet another account.
The savings account rate at Marcus has fallen to 1.9% and will fall further with additional FF rate cuts by the FED.
I have owned GSPRD which I believe has never paid more than its minimum coupon (see link to discussions under that symbol to the right). The likelihood that the float will become higher than the minimum coupon is not high for the foreseeable future. There is also an issue of what the benchmark for the floating rate will be when the Libor rates are phased out.
Currently for preferred stocks, I am buying higher yielding Canadian reset equity preferred stocks at deep discounts to par value. For the most part, those have to be bought in Toronto using CADs but a few are traded in the U.S. and priced in USDs. I own one, EBGEF, which has a US$25 par value and closed today at $18.4. I have an unrealized loss on a 100 share lot discussed in this post:
Item # 1.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_26.html
The coupon reset at a 2.82% spread to the five year treasury note effective 3/1/19 which resulted in a quarterly dividend of $.33596 (US$1.34384 annually or about a 7.3% yield at a $18.4 total cost)
Fidelity does not permit its customers to buy any exchange traded security that is or could be a floater. This security could be bought at Schwab and possibly other brokers. Another issue is that trading is on the U.S. Grey Market, a dark market. Some brokers may charge extra for executing trades.
Preferred stocks issued by CEFs are an alternative, keeping in mind that any perpetual preferred stock has a considerable decree of interest rate risk and a high volatility to major directional shifts in intermediate term rates.
I am not personally interested in 5.5% or less current yields from fixed rate preferred stocks even when the rating is high.
I may lower my standards further which I have already done by buying the BMO preferred discussed in this post.
For that one, I at least have a decent chance at a higher coupon down the road, which is not the case for the fixed coupon ones that you mention issued by Highland and Gabelli CEFs and I have a greater potential for capital gains given the large discount to par value.
Goldman lowered its 1 year CD rate to 2.1% from the 2.25% in effect yesterday:
Deletehttps://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/high-yield-cds
The Bond Ghouls are currently forecasting a 85% probability that the FED will cut the FF rate by .25% at its 10/30/19 meeting, a probability that is already mostly baked into short term yields.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
This time I expect the rate to go down... The ice has been broken on lowering it. ...Sigh.
DeleteIt doesn't help consumer spending or earnings if people have less interest income. This is a trickle down spot....
Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV
ReplyDelete$3.93 -$0.5143 -11.59%
Last Updated: Oct 18, 2019 12:44 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cjref
I discussed in this post selling a 100 CJREF share position. Today's action reconfirms its classification as a Lottery Ticket which needs to be kept on a short leash.
The downdraft is due to an overall negative earnings report released today before the market opened:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/corus-entertainment-announces-fiscal-2019-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-results-300941065.html
E.P.S. declined to C$.11 per share from C$.16 in the year ago quarter, with both numbers impacted by business acquisition, integration and restructuring costs. Without those charges, the E.P.S. numbers would have been $C.13 in the 2019 4th fiscal quarter compared to C$.19 in the 2018 4th fiscal quarter.
That explains the downdraft along with a slight decline in revenue from C$377,479 M from C$379.084M.
Free cash flow is in a downtrend as well.
4th Fiscal Quarters 2019/2018 C$93.554/C$95.966
2019 Fiscal vs. 2018 Fiscal: C$309.970/ C$349.007
Television:
Advertising revenues increased 4% in Q4 2019 and 7% for the year
Subscriber revenues were down 4% in Q4 2019 and 2% for the year
Radio:
Segment revenues decreased 2% in Q4 2019 and 4% for the year
Segment profit decreased $1.5 million in Q4 2019 and $5.7 million for the year
The foregoing will not prevent me from buying shares again, but I will want a price lower than my last reentry of $3.74. I will consider buying back the 100 share lot sold at $4.35 back at below $3.5.
I am no longer getting notices. Last was 10/12 to my gmail account.
ReplyDeleteI have to refresh then look to see what's new.
I signed out and in. Maybe I will get notices now?
Land: You have to click the "notify me" box for each post that you want to receive notifications.
DeleteI have clicked it for each post. Or it's already clicked. It usually has notified but as of Oct 12th, it stopped. I checked that my gmail is forwarding to my regular mail. That's working but it's not showing up on the gmail account. Probably a google glitch.
DeleteI have published a new post.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_19.html