Economy:
The hard data says the US economy is just fine I would disagree with that assessment since the word "fine" is too broad and indefinite.
The hard data indicates that the economy is slowing down materially compared to 2018.
The hard data is not yet consistent with the onset of a recession or one about to begin within 3 months.
Soft data would include surveys that draw conclusions from samples.
The ISM PMI surveys or the consumer confidence survey are two examples.
The soft data is not irrelevant and can provide early signals of a recession, slowdown, or a recovery coming out of a recession.
I would not ignore or dismiss the recent ISM and Markit PMI surveys simply because they are pointing to an economy slipping toward a recession or a meaningful slowdown. Those recent manufacturing and service PMI surveys provide some evidence that the economy is not presently "fine".
The hard data indicates that the economy is slowing down materially compared to 2018.
The hard data is not yet consistent with the onset of a recession or one about to begin within 3 months.
Soft data would include surveys that draw conclusions from samples.
The ISM PMI surveys or the consumer confidence survey are two examples.
The soft data is not irrelevant and can provide early signals of a recession, slowdown, or a recovery coming out of a recession.
I would not ignore or dismiss the recent ISM and Markit PMI surveys simply because they are pointing to an economy slipping toward a recession or a meaningful slowdown. Those recent manufacturing and service PMI surveys provide some evidence that the economy is not presently "fine".
U.S. trade deficit widens 1.6% to $54.9 billion in August - MarketWatch
Bloomberg reported over the weekend that China was hesitant to hammer out a comprehensive deal when trade talks resume in D.C. Their trade delegation was not even bringing proposals relating to reforms in "Chinese industrial policy” or “government subsidies.”
Since this news was likely to cause another anxiety attack among the Stock Jocks, the President's chief economic advisor, the media personality Larry Kudlow, suggested to investors early on Monday that the U.S. may be interested in a "short term" deal, provided there was a "plan" to address "structural issues". Kudlow's comments on trade keep Wall Street afloat-Reuters; US open to 'short term' China trade deal: Kudlow | Fox Business
Kudlow assured investors that he was "confident" that progress will be made at the next meeting.
Trump administration reportedly considering limits on pension investments in Chinese stocks
China tempers optimism for a trade deal ahead of talks
U.S. to blacklist Chinese artificial-intelligence companies - MarketWatch
U.S. signs limited trade deal with Japan - MarketWatch After Donald withdrew the U.S. from the benefits of Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement which was negotiated under the Obama administration, he has managed several years thereafter to secure some of the benefits from that abandoned agreement in this limited bilateral trade deal with Japan. Where the U.S.-Japan trade deal falls short of Trans-Pacific pact abandoned by Trump - Reuters
Bloomberg reported over the weekend that China was hesitant to hammer out a comprehensive deal when trade talks resume in D.C. Their trade delegation was not even bringing proposals relating to reforms in "Chinese industrial policy” or “government subsidies.”
Since this news was likely to cause another anxiety attack among the Stock Jocks, the President's chief economic advisor, the media personality Larry Kudlow, suggested to investors early on Monday that the U.S. may be interested in a "short term" deal, provided there was a "plan" to address "structural issues". Kudlow's comments on trade keep Wall Street afloat-Reuters; US open to 'short term' China trade deal: Kudlow | Fox Business
Kudlow assured investors that he was "confident" that progress will be made at the next meeting.
Trump administration reportedly considering limits on pension investments in Chinese stocks
China tempers optimism for a trade deal ahead of talks
U.S. to blacklist Chinese artificial-intelligence companies - MarketWatch
U.S. signs limited trade deal with Japan - MarketWatch After Donald withdrew the U.S. from the benefits of Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement which was negotiated under the Obama administration, he has managed several years thereafter to secure some of the benefits from that abandoned agreement in this limited bilateral trade deal with Japan. Where the U.S.-Japan trade deal falls short of Trans-Pacific pact abandoned by Trump - Reuters
++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Braced for an economic downturn? These cheap stocks will see you through, says Goldman - MarketWatch
The dollar is doomed — but may pay off when the next bubble takes hold, warns Jim Rogers - MarketWatch The USD will crater in value, which I view as a near certainty given the federal governments accelerating budget deficits and debt.
I would not try to predict the time frame as narrowly as Rogers, who suggests the USD's bubble will burst in 2 to 3 years. While there will be cyclical rallies and declines in the USD's value against major foreign currencies, the trashing of the USD's value and a long term persistent decline is more likely an event for the 2030-2040 period IMO.
I would not agree with Rogers that China's currency would be a viable alternative when the USD starts a long term decline in value.
The alternative to fiat currencies would probably be gold. Over the past 11 years, central banks have shown us that they will devalue their currencies in an effort to gain a trade advantage in a slow growth world, which would likely remove the Swiss Franc as a currency substitute.
Why a ‘Teflon’-coated U.S. dollar refuses to lose its luster - MarketWatch
I would not try to predict the time frame as narrowly as Rogers, who suggests the USD's bubble will burst in 2 to 3 years. While there will be cyclical rallies and declines in the USD's value against major foreign currencies, the trashing of the USD's value and a long term persistent decline is more likely an event for the 2030-2040 period IMO.
I would not agree with Rogers that China's currency would be a viable alternative when the USD starts a long term decline in value.
The alternative to fiat currencies would probably be gold. Over the past 11 years, central banks have shown us that they will devalue their currencies in an effort to gain a trade advantage in a slow growth world, which would likely remove the Swiss Franc as a currency substitute.
Why a ‘Teflon’-coated U.S. dollar refuses to lose its luster - MarketWatch
++++
Trump Tax Returns:
Third Parties Ordered to Turn Over 8 Years of Tax Returns to the Manhattan D.A. Donald's attorneys, including the U.S. Attorney General Barr, will appeal this decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. I would normally expect a decision from this appellate court in about a year. Appeals Court Stays Order That Trump Release Tax Returns
The subpoenas were issued to third parties who had possession of the tax returns, not to Trump as some headlines suggested.
If Barr loses in the Second Circuit, he will apply for certiorari to the Supreme Court which will take a few months to either accept or reject the petition for review.
If the Supreme Court agrees to a review, then add on another year or so before a final decision.
So it could be another 2 1/2 years before Donald has to produce his tax returns.
++
Trump, U.S. Kurdish Allies and Turkey:
Republicans have finally found an issue where they will criticize Donald. Trump's betrayal of the Kurds is a gift to Putin and Assad; Trump sells out the Kurds in his own unique way - The Washington Post; Trump Abandons the Syrian Kurds
President Endorses Turkish Military Operation in Syria Against U.S. Allies in the War against ISIS (" the Kurdish fighters, which are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or S.D.F., have been the United States’ most reliable partner in fighting the Islamic State in a strategic corner of northern Syria.")
Trump is 100% untrustworthy which would be okay for the U.S. and its 300+M citizens if he was just a private citizen screwing banks and his investors and pretending to be an astute businessman on "reality" TV.
When Donald was criticized for abandoning the Kurds, he responded with this tweet, which highlights his mental instability and illnesses:
Trump defends Syria withdrawal amid outcry from Kurdish allies
Exclusive: Official Who Heard Call Says Trump Got 'Rolled' By Turkey and 'Has No Spine'
The Humiliation of Lindsey Graham - POLITICO Magazine (Trump did not ask Graham about his Syria decision before making it)
Donald's Mental Deterioration is Getting Worse:
Donald's mental illnesses are getting worse and have gone beyond the affliction known as malignant narcissistic personality disorder. Donald Trump Is Not Well - The Atlantic; Donald Trump and The Definition of Insanity-Medium; Trump displays textbook ‘malignant narcissism.’ What’s to be done? - Chicago Sun-Times (quoting Elizabeth Mika, clinical psychotherapist, who wrote the following in 2017: “What we know about malignant narcissists is that they psychologically decompensate once they achieve the ultimate position of power. They worsen in every possible way: become more grandiose and paranoid, more aggressive and demanding, and progressively less in touch with reality … We can expect his narcissistic rage to intensify in proportion to his increasing grandiosity and paranoia.")
Regardless of a person's political ideology, we all have experiences dealing with people that are mentally unbalanced and would recognize the symptoms of a major personality disorder that is repeatedly evidenced by a person's conduct and speech. Donald is such a person.
Bad Behaviors of Narcissists/Narcopaths (Donald checks all of the boxes):
Pathological Liars; lie about everything even things that do not matter
Grandiosity-boasts, brags, makes false claims of achievement
Impulsive-Does not think beyond the moment.
Vengeful, Vane, Carries Grudges, rarely if ever forgives or apologizes
Demands Loyalty, no sense of shame, uses vulgar behavior and language,
Self-centered, all about them, egotistical and attention grabbing, overly concerned with their own image
Consumed by conspiracies
Quick Tempered, Expresses Self Pity, Vain, Cowardly, Lack of Empathy
Unable to keep their word
Blames anyone or anything for their failures
Easily bored, lazy
Controlling
Masters of projection-assigning to others their negative personality traits
Unreceptive to help or cures for their disease
How to Tell You're Dealing with a Malignant Narcissist | Psychology Today
Narcissistic personality disorder - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinic
Donald checks all of the boxes. All of the foregoing were obvious IMO before 62+M voted for him.
Donald and Ukraine:
Whistleblower’s attorney says team now representing ‘multiple’ officials as impeachment inquiry expands - The Washington Post
Attorneys for CIA Officer Behind Trump Complaint Say They Now Represent 'Multiple Whistleblowers'
Trump’s Peril Intensifies as More Whistle-Blowers Come Forward
This is just one among many recent tweets that highlight Donald's mental instability that is getting worse:
I doubt that Donald has ever read the Constitution and certainly has no interest in its provisions other than using the Second Amendment as part of his political machinations.
It is Donald and other republicans who continue to misrepresent the plain meaning of the Ukraine related documents produced so far, including the summary of the Duck's phone call with Zelensky. Mounting evidence buttresses the facts laid out in whistleblower complaint
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who sees nothing wrong in Donald's telephone conversation with Zelensky, claimed that Donald was set up somehow. Transcript: Senator Lindsey Graham on "Face the Nation," September 29, 2019 - CBS News
I suppose that Graham means that some kind of dark force infiltrated the Duck's mind and caused him to do what he did. Graham is filled with at least as much B.S. as the Duck.
Somehow Graham manages to look serious and to avoid laughter when he talks.
Perhaps, when more hard evidence emerges that the first whistleblower got it right, it is conceivable that a handful of republicans may cease to peddle Donald's Alternate Reality version as his obedient sycophants, but don't hold you breath on that one.
Mitch McConnell is using Trump's misconduct to garner campaign cash for his 2020 reelection. McConnell vows to block Trump impeachment in fundraising pitch-TheHill; McConnell Campaign Video: He will stop impeachment
A person who has personal ethics, Amy McGrath who is a former Marine fighter pilot, will be running against McConnell. When I saw Mitch trying to capitalize on Trump's misconduct in this matter, which is just another disgusting act committed by him, I made a donation to Ms. McGrath's campaign.
Third Parties Ordered to Turn Over 8 Years of Tax Returns to the Manhattan D.A. Donald's attorneys, including the U.S. Attorney General Barr, will appeal this decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. I would normally expect a decision from this appellate court in about a year. Appeals Court Stays Order That Trump Release Tax Returns
The subpoenas were issued to third parties who had possession of the tax returns, not to Trump as some headlines suggested.
If Barr loses in the Second Circuit, he will apply for certiorari to the Supreme Court which will take a few months to either accept or reject the petition for review.
If the Supreme Court agrees to a review, then add on another year or so before a final decision.
So it could be another 2 1/2 years before Donald has to produce his tax returns.
++
Trump, U.S. Kurdish Allies and Turkey:
Republicans have finally found an issue where they will criticize Donald. Trump's betrayal of the Kurds is a gift to Putin and Assad; Trump sells out the Kurds in his own unique way - The Washington Post; Trump Abandons the Syrian Kurds
President Endorses Turkish Military Operation in Syria Against U.S. Allies in the War against ISIS (" the Kurdish fighters, which are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or S.D.F., have been the United States’ most reliable partner in fighting the Islamic State in a strategic corner of northern Syria.")
Trump is 100% untrustworthy which would be okay for the U.S. and its 300+M citizens if he was just a private citizen screwing banks and his investors and pretending to be an astute businessman on "reality" TV.
When Donald was criticized for abandoning the Kurds, he responded with this tweet, which highlights his mental instability and illnesses:
 |
| Obvious Malignant Narcissism |
Exclusive: Official Who Heard Call Says Trump Got 'Rolled' By Turkey and 'Has No Spine'
The Humiliation of Lindsey Graham - POLITICO Magazine (Trump did not ask Graham about his Syria decision before making it)
Donald's Mental Deterioration is Getting Worse:
Donald's mental illnesses are getting worse and have gone beyond the affliction known as malignant narcissistic personality disorder. Donald Trump Is Not Well - The Atlantic; Donald Trump and The Definition of Insanity-Medium; Trump displays textbook ‘malignant narcissism.’ What’s to be done? - Chicago Sun-Times (quoting Elizabeth Mika, clinical psychotherapist, who wrote the following in 2017: “What we know about malignant narcissists is that they psychologically decompensate once they achieve the ultimate position of power. They worsen in every possible way: become more grandiose and paranoid, more aggressive and demanding, and progressively less in touch with reality … We can expect his narcissistic rage to intensify in proportion to his increasing grandiosity and paranoia.")
Regardless of a person's political ideology, we all have experiences dealing with people that are mentally unbalanced and would recognize the symptoms of a major personality disorder that is repeatedly evidenced by a person's conduct and speech. Donald is such a person.
Bad Behaviors of Narcissists/Narcopaths (Donald checks all of the boxes):
Pathological Liars; lie about everything even things that do not matter
Grandiosity-boasts, brags, makes false claims of achievement
Impulsive-Does not think beyond the moment.
Vengeful, Vane, Carries Grudges, rarely if ever forgives or apologizes
Demands Loyalty, no sense of shame, uses vulgar behavior and language,
Self-centered, all about them, egotistical and attention grabbing, overly concerned with their own image
Consumed by conspiracies
Quick Tempered, Expresses Self Pity, Vain, Cowardly, Lack of Empathy
Unable to keep their word
Blames anyone or anything for their failures
Easily bored, lazy
Controlling
Masters of projection-assigning to others their negative personality traits
Unreceptive to help or cures for their disease
How to Tell You're Dealing with a Malignant Narcissist | Psychology Today
Narcissistic personality disorder - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinic
Donald checks all of the boxes. All of the foregoing were obvious IMO before 62+M voted for him.
++++
Donald and Ukraine:
Whistleblower’s attorney says team now representing ‘multiple’ officials as impeachment inquiry expands - The Washington Post
Attorneys for CIA Officer Behind Trump Complaint Say They Now Represent 'Multiple Whistleblowers'
Trump’s Peril Intensifies as More Whistle-Blowers Come Forward
This is just one among many recent tweets that highlight Donald's mental instability that is getting worse:
I doubt that Donald has ever read the Constitution and certainly has no interest in its provisions other than using the Second Amendment as part of his political machinations.
It is Donald and other republicans who continue to misrepresent the plain meaning of the Ukraine related documents produced so far, including the summary of the Duck's phone call with Zelensky. Mounting evidence buttresses the facts laid out in whistleblower complaint
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who sees nothing wrong in Donald's telephone conversation with Zelensky, claimed that Donald was set up somehow. Transcript: Senator Lindsey Graham on "Face the Nation," September 29, 2019 - CBS News
I suppose that Graham means that some kind of dark force infiltrated the Duck's mind and caused him to do what he did. Graham is filled with at least as much B.S. as the Duck.
Somehow Graham manages to look serious and to avoid laughter when he talks.
Perhaps, when more hard evidence emerges that the first whistleblower got it right, it is conceivable that a handful of republicans may cease to peddle Donald's Alternate Reality version as his obedient sycophants, but don't hold you breath on that one.
Mitch McConnell is using Trump's misconduct to garner campaign cash for his 2020 reelection. McConnell vows to block Trump impeachment in fundraising pitch-TheHill; McConnell Campaign Video: He will stop impeachment
A person who has personal ethics, Amy McGrath who is a former Marine fighter pilot, will be running against McConnell. When I saw Mitch trying to capitalize on Trump's misconduct in this matter, which is just another disgusting act committed by him, I made a donation to Ms. McGrath's campaign.
There is another whistleblower complaint that has not gotten much attention.
IRS whistleblower said to report Treasury political appointee might have tried to interfere in audit of Trump or Pence - The Washington Post
Whistleblower complaint of "inappropriate influence" over Trump’s IRS audit could be released | Salon.com;
This is rare truthful statement from the Duck: Donald Trump: 'I Don't care' about protecting the whistleblower Trump then referred to the whistleblower as a "spy". That characterization is designed to intimidate anyone from coming forward with information detrimental to Donald's personal interests which he defines as being in the national interest.
Donald is digging himself into a hole with his public statements and has probably IMO already crossed the line on two new impeachable offenses: violation of the whistleblower statute and and the abuse of his power as President to engage in witness intimidation.
Donald spends part of his day reading conspiracy websites that create baseless accusations against Donald's critics and political opponents.
The Duck then spreads those baseless conspiracy theories worldwide, treating them as facts, through his tweets and other public statements.
It is an effective manipulation technique since millions of republicans buy into those conspiracy theories, never bothering to fact check them or disbelieving accurate information that debunks them. For them, the conspiracy theories are the facts and the facts are Fake News.
How a Fringe Theory About CrowdStrike Took Root in the White House - The New York Times This is just more proof that Donald is easily susceptible to accepting fringe conspiracy theories as facts and will act upon them using his powers as President.
CrowdStrike is a publicly traded company. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Cl A (CRWD)
Demystifying CrowdStrike Conspiracy Theories—Cyber Saturday | Fortune;
Don't miss the totally debunked conspiracy theory Donald Trump pushed in the Ukraine call
Trump relies on a conspiracy theory called the 'insurance policy' at the center of an impeachment investigation
The Fake News President's political momentum, which resulted in his election, started with him becoming the foremost proponent of the baseless Barack Obama citizenship conspiracy theories. In an July 2016 poll, only 25% of republicans believed Obama was born in the U.S. Poll Donald knew that this ridiculous claim could be peddled to the republican base.
14 of Donald Trump's most outrageous 'birther' claims;
Trump Urges Ukraine, China to Investigate the Bidens (10/3/19) Republicans want to characterize this as a "joke". It was no joke. So why is it so inconceivable that Donald did not request assistance from the Russians? What the Mueller Report Says About Russian Contacts - FactCheck.org; On the Mueller Report, Vol. 1 | Issue 35 | n+1
Giuliani consulted on Ukraine with imprisoned Paul Manafort via a lawyer Manafort is just the kind of guy that Giuliani views as trustworthy, provided the information given to Showboat Rudy fits into a false narrative that he is creating on behalf of Donald.
The inaccurate or unproven things Rudy Giuliani said about Ukraine on 'This Week' | PolitiFact
Trump allies aimed to cash in from Ukraine’s state-owned gas company - MarketWatch
++
Trump, Pompeo and the Degradation of U.S. Standing Abroad:
U.S. standing in the world is plummeting under the Trump administration. How the world sees the U.S. and Trump in 9 charts | Pew Research Center
Trump’s calls with foreign leaders have long worried aides, leaving some ‘genuinely horrified’
It just never ends. Pompeo is just another Trumpster whose hypocrisy drips from every pore. Pompeo’s Four-Pinocchio spin on Trump and Ukraine - The Washington Post
Watchdog reveals mysterious attempt to smear ex-U.S. ambassador to Ukraine - POLITICO;
The Sudden Recall of the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Masha Yovanovitch Might’ve Been the Beginning of the End for Trump | Vanity Fair
Pompeo Has Been Undermining the State Department Since the Benghazi Investigation – Foreign Policy
Diplomats angry and afraid as Ukraine controversy embroils Pompeo's State Department
Demoralized State Department personnel question Pompeo’s role in Ukraine crisis - The Washington Post
Before Trump became the nominee and the undisputed leader of the GOP, Pompeo said that Trump would be "an authoritarian president who ignored the Constitution." Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of Trump | The New Yorker Now, he just another one of Donald's enablers and lackeys.
Pompeo is defending Trump with debunked conspiracy theories.
++
Showboat Rudy is the definition of a rogue operator who traffics in conspiracy theories.
It is difficult to see any meaningful difference between Rudy and Alex Jones who, among other conspiracy theories, propagated claims that the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings and the Stoneman Douglas High School shootings were false flag operations conducted by gun control advocates and staged with actors.
Trump has expressed his admiration for Alex Jones. Donald Trump and the “Amazing” Alex Jones | The New Yorker; Donald Trump praises Alex Jones' 'amazing' reputation
The corruption in Trump's Administration runs deep, which has been obvious since he became President, as entire departments are enlisted to further Donald's personal political interests.
Demagogue Don continues to attack anyone who dares to stand up to him or who provides facts that contradict his demonstrably false reality creations:
Donald's attacks on Mitt Romney will be levied against any republican senator who criticizes him or questions his reality creations with facts.
Donald's trolls and cult members will join the fray spewing their venom on anyone voicing criticism.
These tactics are an effective intimidation technique only because republicans wholeheartedly support Donald who after all "tells it like it is" and represents so vividly the values that they want to teach their children. 72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children'
Donald continues to spin an Alternate Reality about the document summarizing his call with Zelensky:
His spin is completely fraudulent and ridiculous to anyone who has read the document and possesses an IQ higher than most but not all plants.
Trump is the real fraud.
When he started creating the "Trump" brand of a savvy genius businessman with the publication of "Art of the Deal", he was actually a massive business failure, having bankrupted 6 businesses and racking up tax losses of approximately $1 billion. It takes a unique person to pull off that legerdemain-Chutzpah out the ying yang to an infinite decree.
Donald Trump’s Business Failures Were Very Real | The New Yorker
Donald Trump Business Bankruptcies
Donald Trump's Real Secret To Riches: Create A Brand And License It
Is Fraud Part of the Trump Organization’s Business Model? | The New Yorker
Pump and Trump
What Donald Trump’s University Reveals About His Nature | Time
Trump University: It’s Worse Than You Think | The New Yorker
George Conway: Trump Is Unfit for Office - The Atlantic
The last example before the election was Trump University.
After creating a false brand, Trump was successful in licensing his name to others that took the business risks for a variety of projects.
IRS whistleblower said to report Treasury political appointee might have tried to interfere in audit of Trump or Pence - The Washington Post
Whistleblower complaint of "inappropriate influence" over Trump’s IRS audit could be released | Salon.com;
This is rare truthful statement from the Duck: Donald Trump: 'I Don't care' about protecting the whistleblower Trump then referred to the whistleblower as a "spy". That characterization is designed to intimidate anyone from coming forward with information detrimental to Donald's personal interests which he defines as being in the national interest.
Donald is digging himself into a hole with his public statements and has probably IMO already crossed the line on two new impeachable offenses: violation of the whistleblower statute and and the abuse of his power as President to engage in witness intimidation.
Donald spends part of his day reading conspiracy websites that create baseless accusations against Donald's critics and political opponents.
The Duck then spreads those baseless conspiracy theories worldwide, treating them as facts, through his tweets and other public statements.
It is an effective manipulation technique since millions of republicans buy into those conspiracy theories, never bothering to fact check them or disbelieving accurate information that debunks them. For them, the conspiracy theories are the facts and the facts are Fake News.
How a Fringe Theory About CrowdStrike Took Root in the White House - The New York Times This is just more proof that Donald is easily susceptible to accepting fringe conspiracy theories as facts and will act upon them using his powers as President.
CrowdStrike is a publicly traded company. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Cl A (CRWD)
Demystifying CrowdStrike Conspiracy Theories—Cyber Saturday | Fortune;
Don't miss the totally debunked conspiracy theory Donald Trump pushed in the Ukraine call
Trump relies on a conspiracy theory called the 'insurance policy' at the center of an impeachment investigation
The Fake News President's political momentum, which resulted in his election, started with him becoming the foremost proponent of the baseless Barack Obama citizenship conspiracy theories. In an July 2016 poll, only 25% of republicans believed Obama was born in the U.S. Poll Donald knew that this ridiculous claim could be peddled to the republican base.
14 of Donald Trump's most outrageous 'birther' claims;
Trump Urges Ukraine, China to Investigate the Bidens (10/3/19) Republicans want to characterize this as a "joke". It was no joke. So why is it so inconceivable that Donald did not request assistance from the Russians? What the Mueller Report Says About Russian Contacts - FactCheck.org; On the Mueller Report, Vol. 1 | Issue 35 | n+1
Giuliani consulted on Ukraine with imprisoned Paul Manafort via a lawyer Manafort is just the kind of guy that Giuliani views as trustworthy, provided the information given to Showboat Rudy fits into a false narrative that he is creating on behalf of Donald.
The inaccurate or unproven things Rudy Giuliani said about Ukraine on 'This Week' | PolitiFact
Trump allies aimed to cash in from Ukraine’s state-owned gas company - MarketWatch
++
Trump, Pompeo and the Degradation of U.S. Standing Abroad:
U.S. standing in the world is plummeting under the Trump administration. How the world sees the U.S. and Trump in 9 charts | Pew Research Center
Trump’s calls with foreign leaders have long worried aides, leaving some ‘genuinely horrified’
It just never ends. Pompeo is just another Trumpster whose hypocrisy drips from every pore. Pompeo’s Four-Pinocchio spin on Trump and Ukraine - The Washington Post
Watchdog reveals mysterious attempt to smear ex-U.S. ambassador to Ukraine - POLITICO;
The Sudden Recall of the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Masha Yovanovitch Might’ve Been the Beginning of the End for Trump | Vanity Fair
Pompeo Has Been Undermining the State Department Since the Benghazi Investigation – Foreign Policy
Diplomats angry and afraid as Ukraine controversy embroils Pompeo's State Department
Demoralized State Department personnel question Pompeo’s role in Ukraine crisis - The Washington Post
Before Trump became the nominee and the undisputed leader of the GOP, Pompeo said that Trump would be "an authoritarian president who ignored the Constitution." Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of Trump | The New Yorker Now, he just another one of Donald's enablers and lackeys.
Pompeo is defending Trump with debunked conspiracy theories.
++
Showboat Rudy is the definition of a rogue operator who traffics in conspiracy theories.
It is difficult to see any meaningful difference between Rudy and Alex Jones who, among other conspiracy theories, propagated claims that the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings and the Stoneman Douglas High School shootings were false flag operations conducted by gun control advocates and staged with actors.
Trump has expressed his admiration for Alex Jones. Donald Trump and the “Amazing” Alex Jones | The New Yorker; Donald Trump praises Alex Jones' 'amazing' reputation
The corruption in Trump's Administration runs deep, which has been obvious since he became President, as entire departments are enlisted to further Donald's personal political interests.
Demagogue Don continues to attack anyone who dares to stand up to him or who provides facts that contradict his demonstrably false reality creations:
Donald's attacks on Mitt Romney will be levied against any republican senator who criticizes him or questions his reality creations with facts.
Donald's trolls and cult members will join the fray spewing their venom on anyone voicing criticism.
These tactics are an effective intimidation technique only because republicans wholeheartedly support Donald who after all "tells it like it is" and represents so vividly the values that they want to teach their children. 72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children'
Donald continues to spin an Alternate Reality about the document summarizing his call with Zelensky:
His spin is completely fraudulent and ridiculous to anyone who has read the document and possesses an IQ higher than most but not all plants.
Trump is the real fraud.
When he started creating the "Trump" brand of a savvy genius businessman with the publication of "Art of the Deal", he was actually a massive business failure, having bankrupted 6 businesses and racking up tax losses of approximately $1 billion. It takes a unique person to pull off that legerdemain-Chutzpah out the ying yang to an infinite decree.
Donald Trump’s Business Failures Were Very Real | The New Yorker
Donald Trump Business Bankruptcies
Donald Trump's Real Secret To Riches: Create A Brand And License It
Is Fraud Part of the Trump Organization’s Business Model? | The New Yorker
Pump and Trump
What Donald Trump’s University Reveals About His Nature | Time
Trump University: It’s Worse Than You Think | The New Yorker
George Conway: Trump Is Unfit for Office - The Atlantic
The last example before the election was Trump University.
After creating a false brand, Trump was successful in licensing his name to others that took the business risks for a variety of projects.
+++++++
1. Bought 50 SJR at $20.16 and 50 at $19.7-Used Commission Free Trades:
Average Cost Per Share = $19.93
Quotes:
USD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV
CAD Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Investor Relations
Shaw is a Canadian telecommunications company that provides wireless, internet and cable services.
Shaw's has the capability of providing wireless service to about 1/2 of Canada's population. The market is competitive and Shaw currently ranks 4th in market share with three companies, Rogers, Telus and BCD, holding about a 90% share.
During the fiscal third quarter, "wireless service revenue for the three-month period increased by 22% to $178 million over the comparable period in fiscal 2018 ." The company added "approximately 62,000 net Wireless RGUs, consisting of 61,300 postpaid and 800 prepaid additions."
RGU = Revenue Generating Unit
Shaw's wireline businesses consists of retail and wholesales segments. The company offers residential customers "broadband Internet, Shaw Go WiFi, video and digital phone. Business provides business customers with Internet, data, WiFi, digital phone and video services."
Subscribers:
10 Year Chart: Unfavorable
This chart reflects a bear market in this stock that started in early January 2016. The stock has been churning in a narrow channel since the 2018 first quarter.
Comparison Chart: CAD and USD Priced Shares
CAD = Blue Line
Part of the problem has been the weakness in the CAD. Note the performance break starting in 2014 when the CAD/USD was near .95. The relative performance was close in the 2010 to 2014 since the exchange rate was largely fluctuating within a few percent above or below 1. CAD / USD Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Rates
SJR Info Days of Purchases:
Dividends: Monthly at C$.098542 per share (C$1.18+ per share annually)
Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/11/19
Dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rates for each monthly dividend payment.
If I assume a .75 CAD/USD and an annual payment of C$1.18 per share, the dividend yield would be about 4.44% at a total cost of US19.93 (.75 x. C$1.18 = US$.885 annual dividend per share ÷ US$19.93 total cost per share = 4.44%).
Average Cost Per Share = $19.93
Quotes:
USD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV
CAD Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Investor Relations
Shaw is a Canadian telecommunications company that provides wireless, internet and cable services.
Shaw's has the capability of providing wireless service to about 1/2 of Canada's population. The market is competitive and Shaw currently ranks 4th in market share with three companies, Rogers, Telus and BCD, holding about a 90% share.
During the fiscal third quarter, "wireless service revenue for the three-month period increased by 22% to $178 million over the comparable period in fiscal 2018 ." The company added "approximately 62,000 net Wireless RGUs, consisting of 61,300 postpaid and 800 prepaid additions."
RGU = Revenue Generating Unit
Shaw's wireline businesses consists of retail and wholesales segments. The company offers residential customers "broadband Internet, Shaw Go WiFi, video and digital phone. Business provides business customers with Internet, data, WiFi, digital phone and video services."
Subscribers:
10 Year Chart: Unfavorable
This chart reflects a bear market in this stock that started in early January 2016. The stock has been churning in a narrow channel since the 2018 first quarter.
Comparison Chart: CAD and USD Priced Shares
CAD = Blue Line
Part of the problem has been the weakness in the CAD. Note the performance break starting in 2014 when the CAD/USD was near .95. The relative performance was close in the 2010 to 2014 since the exchange rate was largely fluctuating within a few percent above or below 1. CAD / USD Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Rates
SJR Info Days of Purchases:
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| First Purchase |
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| Second Purchase |
Next Ex Dividend Date: 10/11/19
Dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rates for each monthly dividend payment.
If I assume a .75 CAD/USD and an annual payment of C$1.18 per share, the dividend yield would be about 4.44% at a total cost of US19.93 (.75 x. C$1.18 = US$.885 annual dividend per share ÷ US$19.93 total cost per share = 4.44%).
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 5/31/19):
"As at May 31, 2019, the net debt leverage ratio for the Company was 1.8x. Considering the prevailing competitive, operational and capital market conditions, the Board of Directors has determined that having this ratio in the range of 2.0 to 2.5x would be optimal leverage for the Company in the current environment."
"On November 2, 2018, the Company solidified its balance sheet through the issuance of $1 billion in senior notes, comprised of $500 million at a rate of 3.80% due November 2, 2023 and $500 million at a rate of 4.40% due November 2, 2028."
"As at May 31, 2019, the Company had $1.4 billion of cash on hand, its $1.5 billion bank credit facility was fully undrawn and there was an additional $160 million available to draw under its accounts receivable securitization program."
Shaw Announces Third Quarter and Year-To-Date Fiscal 2019 Results
Operating Margin:
Stock Reports:
Morningstar (6/27/19): 3 stars with a FV of $21
Goal: Total annual average total return of 6% to 8%
Current and Maximum Position: 100 shares
Recent Potential Negative: Trudeau Promises to Cut Cellphone bills by 25% if elected
2. Small Ball-Income Generation:
A. Bought 10 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) at $45 and 3 at $42.67-Used Commission Free Trades:
Quote: Occidental Petroleum Corp.
Website: Home
Investor Relations
SEC Filings
Our Businesses:
Pages 10-11 August 2019 Investor Presentation.pdf
This is my first purchase. On the date of this purchase, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey started OXY as a hold with a $48 price target.
The stock is currently hated due in large part to its recent acquisition of Anadarko at a premium price. Occidental Completes Acquisition of Anadarko OXY refused to allow shareholders to vote on that acquisition since it would have likely been voted down.
OXY beat out Chevron who refused to top OXY's bid which indicates that CVX thought the OXY bid was too rich.
I would give OXY a "F" on corporate governance.
Berkshire Hathaway Commits to $10 Billion Equity Investment in Occidental to Finance Acquisition of Anadarko"Berkshire Hathaway will receive 100,000 shares of Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock with a liquidation value of $100,000 per share, together with a warrant to purchase up to 80.0 million shares of Occidental common stock at an exercise price of $62.50 per share. The preferred stock will accrue dividends at 8% per annum (or with respect to dividends that are accrued and unpaid, 9%. . . The preferred stock to be issued to Berkshire Hathaway will be redeemable for cash (in whole or in part) at the option of Occidental commencing on the tenth anniversary of issuance at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus accumulated and unpaid dividends, if any. The preferred stock will also be mandatorily redeemable for cash (in whole or in part) upon certain specified capital return events. Dividends will be paid in cash or, at Occidental’s option, in shares of Occidental common stock. The warrant to be issued with the preferred stock may be exercised in whole or in part and from time to time, until one year after the redemption of the preferred stock.)."
Unfavorable Provisions in Berkshire deal to OXY Shareholders: (1) The 8% cumulative preferred dividend is rich and is not a deductible expense; (2) The 80M share warrant with a $62.5 exercise price is a particularly rich benefit for Berkshire on top of the dividend; (3) the warrant has a potentially long expiration; and (4) the cumulative preferred stock can only be redeemed by OXY at a premium to par value. An arguable benefit to OXY is that the preferred stock dividends can be paid in stock at its option.
Brad Thomas published last Saturday an article discussing OXY. That article will soon move behind SA's paywall. Occidental Petroleum: 3 Things Investors Need To Know About This 7.4% Yielding Stock - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) | Seeking Alpha
OXY Info Day of First Purchase (closing price at $45.5): Down 42%+ over the past year
OXY Information Second Purchase 10/4/19 :
Chart (10 year as of 10/4/19): Major Bear Trend (possibly cyclical)
Stocks of OXY Competitors-Performance Bad to Really Bad:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.79 per share ($3.16 annually)
A dividend cut of up to 50% is certainly a possibility IMO but will depend in part on future energy prices and asset disposals.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/19 (before purchase)
Average Total Cost Per Share (13 shares) = $44.26
Dividend Yield at $44.26 = 7.14%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19): Press Release
"net and core income for the second quarter of 2019 of $635 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, and $729 million, or $0.97 per diluted share, respectively. Net and core income for the first quarter of 2019 were $631 million, or $0.84 per diluted share. Second quarter pre-tax non-core items of $107 million include Anadarko acquisition-related transaction and debt financing fees."
Brokerage Reports:
Argus (8/7/19): Hold-downgraded after OXY agreed to acquire Anadarko
Credit Suisse (8/14/19): Neutral with a $53 PT
Morningstar (8/2/19): 3 stars with a FV of $50
S & P (8/6/19): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $60
Maximum Position: 30 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
I am in no hurry to acquire more shares.
Occidental Provides Update on Divestiture and Deleveraging Initiatives ("Occidental has completed the sale of Anadarko’s Mozambique LNG stake to Total S.A. (“Total”) (NYSE: TOT), for $3.9 billion. As previously announced, Occidental entered into a binding agreement to sell Anadarko’s African assets to Total for $8.8 billion." Total and OXY are working to finalize the remaining asset sales located in Algeria, Ghana and South Africa.); Occidental Agrees to Contingent Sale of Anadarko African Assets to Total for $8.8 Billion
Occidental sells Plains stakes for $652M after secondary offerings - Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) | Seeking Alpha
Blackstone, Apollo may bid for Western Midstream stake - Bloomberg - Western Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:WES) | Seeking Alpha (OXY acquired a majority stake in Western Midstream through its acquisition of Anadarko)-Occidental puts plans to divest Western Midstream on ice -sources - Reuters
"As at May 31, 2019, the net debt leverage ratio for the Company was 1.8x. Considering the prevailing competitive, operational and capital market conditions, the Board of Directors has determined that having this ratio in the range of 2.0 to 2.5x would be optimal leverage for the Company in the current environment."
"On November 2, 2018, the Company solidified its balance sheet through the issuance of $1 billion in senior notes, comprised of $500 million at a rate of 3.80% due November 2, 2023 and $500 million at a rate of 4.40% due November 2, 2028."
"As at May 31, 2019, the Company had $1.4 billion of cash on hand, its $1.5 billion bank credit facility was fully undrawn and there was an additional $160 million available to draw under its accounts receivable securitization program."
Shaw Announces Third Quarter and Year-To-Date Fiscal 2019 Results
Operating Margin:
Stock Reports:
Morningstar (6/27/19): 3 stars with a FV of $21
Goal: Total annual average total return of 6% to 8%
Current and Maximum Position: 100 shares
Recent Potential Negative: Trudeau Promises to Cut Cellphone bills by 25% if elected
2. Small Ball-Income Generation:
A. Bought 10 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) at $45 and 3 at $42.67-Used Commission Free Trades:
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| 10 Share Purchase |
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| 3 Share Purchase |
Website: Home
Investor Relations
SEC Filings
Our Businesses:
Pages 10-11 August 2019 Investor Presentation.pdf
This is my first purchase. On the date of this purchase, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey started OXY as a hold with a $48 price target.
The stock is currently hated due in large part to its recent acquisition of Anadarko at a premium price. Occidental Completes Acquisition of Anadarko OXY refused to allow shareholders to vote on that acquisition since it would have likely been voted down.
OXY beat out Chevron who refused to top OXY's bid which indicates that CVX thought the OXY bid was too rich.
I would give OXY a "F" on corporate governance.
Berkshire Hathaway Commits to $10 Billion Equity Investment in Occidental to Finance Acquisition of Anadarko"Berkshire Hathaway will receive 100,000 shares of Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock with a liquidation value of $100,000 per share, together with a warrant to purchase up to 80.0 million shares of Occidental common stock at an exercise price of $62.50 per share. The preferred stock will accrue dividends at 8% per annum (or with respect to dividends that are accrued and unpaid, 9%. . . The preferred stock to be issued to Berkshire Hathaway will be redeemable for cash (in whole or in part) at the option of Occidental commencing on the tenth anniversary of issuance at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus accumulated and unpaid dividends, if any. The preferred stock will also be mandatorily redeemable for cash (in whole or in part) upon certain specified capital return events. Dividends will be paid in cash or, at Occidental’s option, in shares of Occidental common stock. The warrant to be issued with the preferred stock may be exercised in whole or in part and from time to time, until one year after the redemption of the preferred stock.)."
Unfavorable Provisions in Berkshire deal to OXY Shareholders: (1) The 8% cumulative preferred dividend is rich and is not a deductible expense; (2) The 80M share warrant with a $62.5 exercise price is a particularly rich benefit for Berkshire on top of the dividend; (3) the warrant has a potentially long expiration; and (4) the cumulative preferred stock can only be redeemed by OXY at a premium to par value. An arguable benefit to OXY is that the preferred stock dividends can be paid in stock at its option.
Brad Thomas published last Saturday an article discussing OXY. That article will soon move behind SA's paywall. Occidental Petroleum: 3 Things Investors Need To Know About This 7.4% Yielding Stock - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) | Seeking Alpha
OXY Info Day of First Purchase (closing price at $45.5): Down 42%+ over the past year
OXY Information Second Purchase 10/4/19 :
Chart (10 year as of 10/4/19): Major Bear Trend (possibly cyclical)
Stocks of OXY Competitors-Performance Bad to Really Bad:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.79 per share ($3.16 annually)
A dividend cut of up to 50% is certainly a possibility IMO but will depend in part on future energy prices and asset disposals.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/19 (before purchase)
Average Total Cost Per Share (13 shares) = $44.26
Dividend Yield at $44.26 = 7.14%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19): Press Release
"net and core income for the second quarter of 2019 of $635 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, and $729 million, or $0.97 per diluted share, respectively. Net and core income for the first quarter of 2019 were $631 million, or $0.84 per diluted share. Second quarter pre-tax non-core items of $107 million include Anadarko acquisition-related transaction and debt financing fees."
Brokerage Reports:
Argus (8/7/19): Hold-downgraded after OXY agreed to acquire Anadarko
Credit Suisse (8/14/19): Neutral with a $53 PT
Morningstar (8/2/19): 3 stars with a FV of $50
S & P (8/6/19): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $60
Maximum Position: 30 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
I am in no hurry to acquire more shares.
Occidental Provides Update on Divestiture and Deleveraging Initiatives ("Occidental has completed the sale of Anadarko’s Mozambique LNG stake to Total S.A. (“Total”) (NYSE: TOT), for $3.9 billion. As previously announced, Occidental entered into a binding agreement to sell Anadarko’s African assets to Total for $8.8 billion." Total and OXY are working to finalize the remaining asset sales located in Algeria, Ghana and South Africa.); Occidental Agrees to Contingent Sale of Anadarko African Assets to Total for $8.8 Billion
Occidental sells Plains stakes for $652M after secondary offerings - Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) | Seeking Alpha
Blackstone, Apollo may bid for Western Midstream stake - Bloomberg - Western Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:WES) | Seeking Alpha (OXY acquired a majority stake in Western Midstream through its acquisition of Anadarko)-Occidental puts plans to divest Western Midstream on ice -sources - Reuters
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 1 Centerpoint Energy Houston1.85% General Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/21-In A Roth IRA Account:
Item # 5.B. Bought 1 CNP Mortgage 2021 Bond at a Total Cost of 97.154 -In A Roth IRA Account (3/29/18 Post) YTM was then at 2.783%.
Profit Snapshot: $8.36
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of CenterPoint Energy Inc (CNP)
Sold at 99.473
YTM at 99.473 = 2.162%
I am transitioning to the common stock that yields more. Purchases are subject to the small ball purchase restriction. Item # 1.A. Bought 20 CNP at $27.72 and 10 at $27.39-Used Commission Free Trades (8/28/19 Post)
B. Sold 2 of 4 Biogen 2.9% SU Maturing on 9/15/20:
Profit Snapshot: +$15.76
Item # 2.B. Bought 2 BIIB 2020 SU at a TC of 99.812 (9/5/18 Post) The YTM was then at 2.994% (time and TC price)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
BIIB Analyst Estimates
Biogen SEC Filings
Sold at 100.7
YTM at 100.7 = 2.196%
Proceeds at 100.6 after $1 per bond commission.
I still own 2 bonds that were bought in September 2018: Item # 2.C. Bought 1 BIIB 2020 SU at a Total Cost of 99.819 (9/19/18 Post) I will hold that one until maturity or early issuer redemption. The YTM was then at 2.993%.
C. Bought 3 Treasury Zero Coupon Maturing on 12/26/19:
YTM = 1.913%
This was a secondary market purchase of a recently auctioned treasury bill.
D. Bought 3 Valley National 1.95% CDs Maturing on 11/18/19-In A Roth IRA Account:
4. Corporate Bonds-Fidelity Taxable Account:
I am now caught up discussing my intermediate term bond sells.
I have slashed my corporate bond allocation, focusing mostly on intermediate term bonds that I owned in several brokerage accounts
The following bonds are currently owned in my Fidelity taxable account.
As of 9/30/19, the market value was $209,382, the unrealized gain was at $4,424 and the annual income was at $5,147:
List:
For the past several weeks, I have not even bothered to look at any corporate bonds to buy. The focus has entirely been on selling into the powerful bond rally.
B. Sold 2 of 4 Biogen 2.9% SU Maturing on 9/15/20:
Profit Snapshot: +$15.76
Item # 2.B. Bought 2 BIIB 2020 SU at a TC of 99.812 (9/5/18 Post) The YTM was then at 2.994% (time and TC price)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
BIIB Analyst Estimates
Biogen SEC Filings
Sold at 100.7
YTM at 100.7 = 2.196%
Proceeds at 100.6 after $1 per bond commission.
I still own 2 bonds that were bought in September 2018: Item # 2.C. Bought 1 BIIB 2020 SU at a Total Cost of 99.819 (9/19/18 Post) I will hold that one until maturity or early issuer redemption. The YTM was then at 2.993%.
C. Bought 3 Treasury Zero Coupon Maturing on 12/26/19:
YTM = 1.913%
This was a secondary market purchase of a recently auctioned treasury bill.
D. Bought 3 Valley National 1.95% CDs Maturing on 11/18/19-In A Roth IRA Account:
4. Corporate Bonds-Fidelity Taxable Account:
I am now caught up discussing my intermediate term bond sells.
I have slashed my corporate bond allocation, focusing mostly on intermediate term bonds that I owned in several brokerage accounts
The following bonds are currently owned in my Fidelity taxable account.
As of 9/30/19, the market value was $209,382, the unrealized gain was at $4,424 and the annual income was at $5,147:
 |
| From Account Statement |
For the past several weeks, I have not even bothered to look at any corporate bonds to buy. The focus has entirely been on selling into the powerful bond rally.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Shaw and OXY are straight equity buys... not bonds?
ReplyDeleteHave you figured out yet if multiple whistle blowers means 2 or more than 2? I found media's reporting on this completely unclear.
Not that it matters. We have the evidence. Trump said it out loud.
Can't disagree with anything you summarized!!
The China trading mess seems nearer an end. I'd expect that after he announces success, this will go into the background and stop moving the market. Today of course there's "reason" for "upset" since he put on new restrictions... and China's indicated it's not playing ball.
Is Trump's machinations better for China, or worse, in their side of the game playing... I haven't figured this out. But it will all be over before it even matters. A few more weeks. So it seems.
Wonder what the next market worry will be.
Land: OXY and SJR are common stock purchases.
ReplyDeleteEnergy stocks have been in a long term bear market starting in the 2014 summer.
I have not seen any indication yet that this bear cycle is over.
The most likely cause for the bear cycle to end now would be a Middle East war that destroys production facilities and interferes with shipping. Since Saudi Arabia and the U.S. left Iran off the hook for the attack on SA facilities, that possible future event does not look likely now.
So I am only gingerly buying in this sector, and exceedingly so, some yield stocks using the small ball trading rules.
I would hope that some settlement of the China trade dispute is near but I would not invest money on assurances from Trump, Kudlow and others that appear primarily designed to manipulate investors.
Shaw Communications is a new name for me. I am searching far and wide for income generating securities given the lack of alternatives in bonds.
The 30 year treasury bond is near 2% and may fall below 2% today or later in the week.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd30y?countrycode=bx
I am positioned now for a bear market in stocks. I have slashed my stock allocation on a net basis this year through liquidation of several stock mutual funds. So I am willing to take some small measured risks in yield stocks that have been beaten up.
I would anticipate that the positive returns generated by my extreme overweighting in high quality bonds is just about played out, so I will continue to sell corporate bonds into a bond rally.
I am not sure how I am going to reinvest the proceeds received from maturing bonds and CDs. It would help me in my reallocation decisions if SPX dropped at least 20%.
"The father of the yield curve indicator says now is the time to prepare for a recession"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/inverted-yield-curve-guru-campbell-harvey-prepare-for-recession.html
"Harvey said the curve needs to stay inverted for three months to be reliable, so in this instance the duration means the indicator is “flashing code red” for a recession.
ReplyDelete“It’s not normal. It’s something that foreshadows bad times,” he said.
The one bright spot, he said, is that those watching the indicator can, and sometimes do, plan ahead. The inversion is not a coincident indicator but rather one that points to downturns six to 18 months or so in the future. So businesses can react to it, for instance, by delaying spending plans until the storm passes."
Are we at 3 months inverted already?
The 2/10 isn't. So the market isn't worried. As you've pointed out, serious users of this use the 3/10.
He seems to be saying, prepare rather than that it's immediate.
I don't have time at the moment to read this, but this seems to be saying that a recession after inversion doesn't mean lower stock prices??
""There’s also no guarantee that the inversion will tank stock prices: Research earlier this year from economists Eugene Fama and Kenneth French found no correlation between an inversion and an equity market that underperformed government bonds.""
S&P 500 Index 2,893.06 -45.73 -1.56%
ReplyDeleteThe decline today was attributable to the Stock Jocks starting to question Larry Kudlow's happy talk that all is going well in the China trade negotiations.
The hard to reconcile facts included the following: (1) new U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms; (2) another report that the U.S. is exploring whether to block government pension funds from investing in China; (3) and a South China Post report that the Chinese delegation may cut their visit short by one night. Earlier reports which I previously discussed indicated that China would not be presenting counter-proposals on two key areas of disagreement.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3032016/china-tones-down-expectations-ahead-us-trade-war-talks-vice
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/08/china-tones-down-expectations-ahead-of-us-trade-war-talks-038713
I would not attribute any of the decline to Trump's decision to stonewall the House impeachment investigation, which I view as a political decision and based on a recognition that more testimony and documents would make matters worse and possibly lead to a meaningful number of independents to turn against Donald and republican politicians in general.
There is a small, though meaningful, uptick in republicans who support an impeachment inquiry. That poll, discussed in the following link, was probably partly responsible for Trump's decision to obstruct the investigation.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-approve-of-trump-impeachment-inquiry-new-poll-shows-2019-10-08?mod=mw_theo_homepage&mod=mw_theo_homepage
Sondland had traveled from Europe to the U.S. already in order to give testimony today. He was blocked from giving testimony at the last minute by Donald. The state department is also refusing to produce emails from and to Sondland involving the Ukraine matter. There would only be one reason for this last minute decision to stop Sondland. His testimony would have made matters worse for the republicans.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/trump-admin-blocks-us-diplomat-from-testifying-in-impeachment-probe-lawyer-says.html
The legal arguments made by Trump's attorney, Pat Cipollone, to justify Trump's obstruction of the impeachment inquiry are frivolous but they will delay the collection of evidence until the the courts finally resolve the matter or Trump relents.
Bloomberg reported this morning that China would consider a partial trade deal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/china-still-ready-to-discuss-partial-deal-despite-tech-blacklist.html
Stock futures jumped on the news.
Perhaps the Stock Jocks read all or part of the headline without reading the article.
The report claims that China will increase agricultural product purchases provided the U.S. imposes no new tariffs.
Importantly, China will not make any concessions on the major sticking points that have caused Donald to start the tariff war.
If Donald accepts that kind of offer, then he would have accomplished nothing by his trade war.
Turkey is attacking the Kurds in northern Syria who were U.S. allies in the fight against ISIS until Donald abandoned them.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/syria-turkey-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html
Donald threatened to "destroy and obliterate" Turkey's economy in a tweet reproduced in this post if Turkey "does anything" that in Donald's "great and unmatched wisdom" views to be "off limits".
So is this attack that Turkey is undertaking now "off limits" in Donald's "great and unmatched wisdom". If so it will be interesting to see how Donald plans to obliterate Turkey's economy.
Donald assured investors today that there was a "really good chance" of U.S.-China trade deal:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-says-there-is-a-really-good-chance-of-us-china-trade-deal-idUSKBN1WO2OK
For reasons that hard to fathom, the Stock Jocks invest money based on representations made by Donald and Kudlow.
China has now indicated that no progress has been made in the talks and the trade meeting has been cut to just one day with China's delegation now scheduled to leave on Thursday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/us-futures-drop-after-chinese-media-reports-that-us-and-china-have-made-no-progress-in-trade-talks.html
The CNBC article is based on a report from the South China Post:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3032261/us-and-china-make-no-progress-key-trade-issues-two-days-deputy
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
2,889.25 -29.65 -1.02%
Last Updated: Oct 9, 2019 at 6:46 p.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures
The meeting is shaping up like the last one held in D.C. The Chinese say howdy and leave.
The White House denied the South China Post claim that the delegation will leave on Thursday, one day early.
DeleteThe WH claims that the delegation will leave on Friday evening.
The WH denial caused a jump in the futures starting around 6:40 P.M. C.D.T.
We will know soon enough who has it right.
The moral of the story is that Trump and his minions can still manipulate the Stock Jocks and that has not changed no matter how many times he has burned them on the actual and real status of the trade negotiations.
It won't matter. It will be seen as okay because there's no more trade war.
DeleteThis problem is over. As far as the market is concerned.
Except Trump shoots himself a lot. So good chance he'll say something revealing and that will tank the market one more time... before he recovers it.
Although it would be very helpful if the market pulled back, for buying in.
Trump is letting Turkey ethnically cleanse Kurds. While his minions are told they are the PKK, and that Obama funded them and ISIS.
Land: Donald gave a reason today for giving Turkey the green light to attack the Kurds.
Delete"They didn't help us in the Second World War; they didn't help us with Normandy."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHkd4t8or9w
The Kurds lost about 11,000 people fighting ISIS.
"The Danger of Abandoning Our Partners" written by the retired 4 star general Joseph Votel:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/10/danger-abandoning-our-partners/599632/
See also, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/11/military-officers-trump/598360/
Donald made the decision to abandon the Kurds without consulting anyone other that Turkey's President and possibly Putin, both of whom benefit from Trump's betrayal of the Kurds. Making spur of the moment decisions is a well known personality characteristic of malignant narcissists.
As to the China trade negotiations, only temporary stock market gyrations occur so far based on news stories.
SPX is stalled in a fairly tight range and is basically unchanged from a year ago. The total return over the past year through today, which includes the reinvestment of dividends to buy shares, stands at 3.37%.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/portfolio
Ultimately, the arbiter of the stock market's next major move will be the U.S. economy. The tariff war is just one of many factors that will influence corporate profit and GDP growth.
I am starting to buy small stock lots at Charles Schwab which now has commission free trades. For the most part, I will not be discussing those trades here.
I did take another stab at SKT today, buying 50 shares near the close in my IB account.
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc
$14.37 -0.18 -1.24%
YIELD 9.88%
EX-DIVIDEND DATE Jul 30, 2019
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/skt
The goal is to sell for a profit after harvesting the dividend. I recently sold 50 shares in that account at 16.85:
Item # 1.A. Saturday, September 28, 2019 Post
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/09/observations-and-sample-of-recent_28.html
I am not a fan. I mention this since I may not discuss the trade or, if I do, it will be in a couple of weeks. I am naturally a deeply contrarian value investor which draws me to stocks like SKT even though it is obvious that the market hates the stock.
Brad Thomas, who has been touting the stock, published another article on this REIT earlier today which will disappear behind a pay wall soon.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4295609-unlocking-true-value-tanger-factory-outlet-centers
The latest Bloomberg report (paywall) is that Donald may implement a partial trade deal, and call it Phase 1. The U.S. would suspend further tariff increases and the issues that sparked the tariff war would be placed in a Phase 2 negotiation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-10/u-s-weighing-currency-pact-with-china-as-part-of-partial-deal
Summarized at free Marketwatch website:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-bounce-around-on-conflicting-trade-talk-reports-2019-10-09?mod=home-page
While that is a bare outline, it would represent a cave by Donald who would not have anything major to show for launching the trade war other than to increase tariff taxes paid by U.S. consumers and businesses which he claims are paid by China. I would not consider China ramping up some purchases of U.S. products in exchange for no new tariffs as being a concession taking into account what the level of their purchases were before this trade war was started by Donald.
Effective today, Fidelity has cut its commission rate for online trades of U.S. stocks and ETFs to zero.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/fidelity-cuts-fees-to-0-as-it-jumps-on-zero-commission-bandwagon-2019-10-10
S&P 500 Index 2,943.21 +23.81 +0.82%
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
The Stock Jocks swung back to optimism about some kind of trade deal when Donald published this tweet:
"Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/trump-says-he-will-meet-with-chinese-vice-premier-on-friday-big-day-of-negotiations-with-china.html
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1182292163721404416
If Donald invited the Vice Premier Liu to the White House, I would expect Liu to accept irrespective of whether some kind of agreement was imminent.
The Stock Jocks are interpreting the visit as a sign that some kind of agreement will be announced tomorrow.
Bet there will be a deal announced tomorrow. I won't be what you or I call a deal. But those with faith in him and market... will be quite satisfied.
DeleteI'm not buying today. But I sure should be.
Facts are no longer a thing.
Land: I suspect that China is seeking an agreement where Donald does not increase existing tariffs and/or impose new ones in exchange for some kind of agreement on currency and a verbal promise to buy some U.S. products.
DeleteIf that proves correct, the major issues of contention which led to the tariff war would remain unresolved and China avoids committing to a treaty on trade.
The question is whether Donald wants to cave in this manner or will he hold out for something more.
Keeping the existing tariffs in place harms U.S. consumers and businesses.
My best guess is that he wants to find a way to get out of this problem that he created, just declare victory even it is obvious that he folded, and leave the main problems to the next President.
None of this has any impact on my small ball trading which focuses on the downtrodden and unloved dividend stocks.
The Stock Jocks have lost some of their earlier enthusiasm, perhaps due to being burned by Donald and Kudlow multiple times on the true status of the negotiations.
S&P 500 Index 2,936.39 + 16.99 +0.58%
DAY RANGE 2,917.12 - 2,948.46
Last Updated: Oct 10, 2019 at 1:41 p.m. EDT
We will know more before the weekend starts.
I have bought several of those stocks today in very small lots (2 to 5 shares are typical trades now with commission free trades offered by both Fidelity and Schwab to all brokerage customers for online trades of U.S. stocks and ETFs)
Stock futures received a lift after Donald represented that the trade talks with China are "going very well".
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-china-trade-talks-are-going-very-well-trump-says-2019-10-10?mod=mw_latestnews
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/stock-futures-open-higher-after-optimistic-trump-comments-on-us-china-trade.html
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Marijuana stocks are getting shellacked due to a constant negative news stream.
I mentioned in prior post trading the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMMJ:CA), which closed at C$10.50, down 8.22% today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/hmmj?countrycode=ca
I see no reason yet to dive back into this sector. The news flow is just overwhelmingly negative. I will more closely monitor the pricing action and news when and if this ETF falls below C$10.
My last exit point was at C$18.31.
Item # 4.B.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/01/observations-and-sample-of-recent_30.html
Realized HMMJ:CA Gains to Date = C$889.5
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SKT declared its regular quarterly dividend today. The ex dividend date will be near the end of October.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/tanger-declares-dividend-for-third-quarter-2019-300936628.html
I should have bought when I said I should have bought.
DeleteOh, takes more concentration than I had. Got some distractors. I get to try out benzos and everything! How does anyone get addicted to something that makes me pass out, and messes with my thinking for a while after? Great for it's intended purpose in this (muscle relaxer to improve breathing), but long term? I'd rather drown my brain chemistry in some good ice cream and pasta. i.e. sugar shock.
I do wonder what the Duck is using?
The big news, Shepard Smith left FOX! So sad. My mom listened to him, and told me, it's like FOX has two different stories. Now she won't be seeing an important one. The other being hannity. (Did read that with sponsors jumping ship, hannity's threatened to leave too.)
New posting, moving over to it...
(Plenty of depth still on this thread that I meant to comment on, but didn't get a chance.)
On not posting equity risk buys, those would be interesting to read. I'm not a bond player. I might not buy the deep value, or high risk. But can be helpful to understand what makes them appealing... and what the damages on them are. Even if they don't wind up being profit buys, just amusement buys while waiting for real and obvious buying environment to come...
Shepard Smith was a fact guy and tried to be a straight shooter with the Fox viewers, which made him an aberration at that network.
DeleteHannity is a propaganda mouthpiece for the Duck and a key player in spreading baseless conspiracy theories to the gullible and uninformed.
Jane Mayer discusses the origins of Biden-Ukraine conspiracy theory and how it was spread through Fox in this recently published article:
"The Invention of the Conspiracy Theory on Biden and Ukraine"
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-invention-of-the-conspiracy-theory-on-biden-and-ukraine
Did mean that to sound like I'm having trouble breathing. It's just part of what's a pretty mild treatment protocol. First week was unpleasant. But it's much more normal feeling now.
DeleteHannity is Rush Limbal 2
Typo: DidN'T mean for that to sound...
DeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_11.html