Saturday, November 23, 2019

Observations and Sample of Recent trades: CODIPRB, EMGF, FTSPRM, GWX, OXY, SLB, VTR

Economy



Pelosi, Neal and Lighthizer do not reach deal on Trump USCMA agreement (i.e. Nafta 1.01)

Yellen: 'Good reason to worry' about US economy sliding into recession The most troubling comment is that the FED will be able to do little to push the economy out of recession. I would add that the U.S. government is running around $1 trillion in budget deficits per year during an economic expansion and will not be in a position to do what will likely be required to replace a major downturn in private demand.  


Before the market opened yesterday, Donald represented that the trade deal was "very close"Trump says a trade deal is very close 


China continues to claim that it wants a trade deal based on "mutual respect and equality." I view those as code words for China pushing back on Trump's demands and/or major disagreements about how tariffs will be phased out. 

The Stock Jocks have faith that Donald is telling them the truth about the status of the trade negotiations and have responded positively to claims that a deal is near for over a year now.   

Yesterday, Markit released its flash PMI numbers for U.S. manufacturing and services that improved over the prior month. U.S. manufacturing, services PMI improve in November - MarketWatch


Flash Manufacturing: 52.2 up from 51.3 in October 


Flash Services: 51.6 up from 50.6


While those numbers are moving in the right direction after declining for several months, I would not read too much into them given the relatively minor upticks in a dominant declining longer term recent trend. The flash numbers may be revised when Markit has more data.  


Markit also released yesterday its flash PMI numbers for Europe. Services PMI was reported at 51.5, down from 52.2 in October. Manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.1. Any number below 50 indicates contraction. 


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Markets and Market Commentary

Commodities still ‘knee-deep’ in ‘supercycle bear market’ yet to run its course, analyst warns - MarketWatch Based on what is known now, I would agree. 



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Trump:

Donald is claiming that the Inspector General's report about the FBI's Russia investigation will be "historic". The report will be released early next month. Russia Inquiry Review Is Said to Criticize F.B.I. but Rebuff Claims of Biased Acts

House is investigating whether Trump lied to Mueller, its general counsel told a federal appeals court


Possible pay-to-play scheme for Trump ambassador post uncovered

IRS whistleblower case advances as Senate staff looks at whether political appointee meddled with audit of Trump or Pence This particular complaint alleges that a political appointee at the IRS attempted to interfere with an audit of Donald's tax returns. 


‘No One Believes Anything’: Voters Worn Out by a Fog of Political News - The New York Times Creating distrust in the media has been the objective of the republican party starting with Nixon. When demonstrably false statements drown out the truth for a critical mass of voters, the result is that demonstrably false narratives will gain ascendance over the truth; and authoritarian minded demagogues like Trump can flourish through creating false narratives. The danger to our freedoms and democracy come from within.    


Craig Silverman, Denver radio host, says he was fired for criticizing Trump on-air - The Washington Post Silverman was a host on a  radio show broadcast by the self-proclaimed "conservative" station 710 KNUS, which is owned by the  Salem Media Group.


TrumpWorld does not permit anyone to criticize Donald, no matter how justified, without serious repercussions including loss of job. Silverman was fired during his broadcast after saying he was troubled by Donald's relationship with the notorious Roy Cohn.


I would emphasize that it is impossible to persuade those living in TrumpWorld's Alternate Reality with reliable factual information. 


The effort is futile and only makes them angry and resentful. 

Donald tells them the way it is and everything else is just Fake News propagated by the enemies of the people- or what the Nazis termed the Lügenpresse. Donald Trump Supporters Are Using Nazi Word 'Lügenpresse' | Time

Impeachment:

Fiona Hill chides Republicans for peddling ‘fictions’ on Ukraine, Russia She specifically referred to the republican adoption of a false narrative created by Russian intelligence operatives that it was Ukraine, rather than Russia, who interfered in the 2016 election.


Charges of Ukrainian Meddling? A Russian Operation, U.S. Intelligence Says ("In a briefing that closely aligned with Dr. Hill’s testimony, American intelligence officials informed senators and their aides in recent weeks that Russia had engaged in a years long campaign to essentially frame Ukraine as responsible for Moscow’s own hacking of the 2016 election.");  


Trump seized on a conspiracy theory called the 'insurance policy.' Now, it's at the center of an impeachment investigation

Briton ran pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign that helped Trump deny Russian links  

The baseless nature of this conspiracy theory has been clear for some time, but Donald, other republican politicians and Fox news personalities on Conspiracy TV are still treating Putin's propaganda as facts and propagating them nationwide even though the conspiracy theories make no sense whatsoever and have been thoroughly debunked. 


Donald repeated again the conspiracy claim that it was Ukraine who hacked the DNC server rather than the Russians just yesterday.  


Trump Fox & Friends interview: Trump pushes Ukraine conspiracy theory - Vox 

Donald has no fear of being seriously questioned by Fox media personalities about his Crowdstrike conspiracy theory, the same one that he wanted Zelensky to investigate as a "favor" to Donald.  

I would just note again that CrowdStrike Holdings Inc is a public company based in Sunnyvale California rather than the Ukraine. Donald can not talk about this conspiracy theory without making multiple demonstrably false statements. 


Why is Donald, other republicans and the Fox news personalities on Conspiracy TV pushing the Russian intelligence narrative about the Ukraine? Why are they promoting the interest of a belligerent foreign power against the natio
nal security interests of the U.S. and our ally Ukraine? 


For republican politicians and the Fox news personalities, it is all about protecting Donald irrespective of what he does or the harm that he causes to the nation's interests. 

Donald wants to muddy the waters by claiming that Russia did not interfere in the 2016 election on his behalf, and that he was justified in wanting the Ukraine to investigate the fact free conspiracy theories. 

Fiona Hill Testifies ‘Fictions’ on Ukraine Pushed by Trump Help Russia The republicans are pushing Putin talking points and are defending Trump's conduct, in
cluding disputing the consensus opinion that it was Russia who interfered in the 2016 Presidential election.    


Behind the headlines, Russian threat cuts through Trump impeachment  


One of the republicans is of course Devin Nunes: Ukraine conspiracy theory is 'harmful', Fiona Hill tells Devin Nunes - The Washington Post


I listened to Ms. Hill testify for about an hour. While she is a naturalized U.S. citizen born in the U.K. I found her to me far more American than the republicans who questioned her.   


Trump calls Democrats ‘human scum’ as two more witnesses testify in inquiryTrump erupts over ‘human scum’ impeachment investigators in rambling series of false and misleading tweets | The Independent 




Donalds tweets will be an enduring and major part of his legacy.  


Trump did of course receive Due Process during the impeachment process notwithstanding his tweets claiming otherwise. 

During the hearing, Donald was represented by the 10 Trumpster republican House representatives and their counsel. Republicans have been allowed to call several witnesses. Trump has been asked to testify for as long as he wants with his own counsel present but has so far refused to do so.

Trump has obstructed the investigation process by demanding that fact witnesses refuse to honor subpoenas and has been successful so far in preventing several witnesses from testifying including his fumbling Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and his former National Security Advisor John Bolton.


Donald also attacked the truthfulness of David Holmes who offered damaging testimony against him.




During a Fox interview last Friday, he claimed that Holmes was lying and guaranteed that the call overheard by Holmes never happened, even though Sondland and Holmes testified under oath that it did. Trump  Accuses a Witness of Lying  


Holmes and Fiona Hill are credible witnesses. Ms. Hill was one of the best witnesses that I have ever seen testify. 


And Holmes testified that Trump asked about the "investigations" in the phone call that he overheard, which occurred one day after Donald's call with Zelensky on 7/25 where the summary released by Donald shows him asking for two investigations into the Bidens and the bizarre Crowdstrike conspiracy theory. 


Think about that for a second. Is Donald claiming now he did not request that Ukraine investigate the Bidens and the Crowdstrike conspiracy theory? 

Donald's attack on Holmes is just another one of his now frequent, malicious and unjustified drive by character assassinations that will be a major part of his historical legacy.  One of those from a U.S. President is difficult to tolerate. One a day is the norm for Despicable Don. 

In his Fox and Friends puff interview, Donald also attacked again Marie Yovanovitch, falsely calling her an "Obama person" while complaining that because "she's a woman, you have to be nice.". How Trump keeps making it tougher for his GOP impeachment defenders    

Donald is the liar. I can not identify anyone who lies less often. And as such, he defends himself by calling those who tell the truth liars. This works on the Trumpsters but others are not susceptible to such persistent and obvious deception.  


The last compilation by the WP, published on 10/14/19, had Deceiving Don at 13,245 publicly made false or misleading statements since he became President. 


And, given his extreme malignant narcissism, it would not be feasible for anyone in the WH to correct his false statements made privately and acted upon by him when formulating U.S. policies including his reliance on fact free conspiracy theories no matter how much they defy basic common sense.  

Trump impeachment hearings Day 5: Fiona Hill and David Holmes testify - ABC News


Trump ordered Ukraine 'quid pro quo' through Giuliani: Sondland hearing;


Sondland Says ‘We Followed the President’s Orders’ on Ukraine


Sondland acknowledges there was a quid pro quo involving Ukraine - The Washington Post


Sondland Ties Trump to Ukraine Pressure Campaign - The New York Times That is obviously the case except of course in the Alternate Reality known as Trump's America.


Analysis: 3 takeaways from Sondland impeachment testimony Sondland testimony targets Trump, Pompeo and confirms deal with Ukraine Sondland implicated Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Trump's shakedown scheme, which explains why Pompeo tried to block state department employees from providing testimony. Pompeo is a tea party republican and a former congressman from Kansas. He was gun ho in trying to blame Hilary for the Benghazi attack. Pompeo Has Been Undermining the State Department Since the Benghazi Investigation – Foreign Policy


Trump points to his own statement, made to Sondland on 9/9/19,  the day after Congress was notified about the whistleblower's complaint, that there was no quid pro quo as proof there was none. Criminals deny committing a crime even when the proof says otherwise.  


The evidence proves that Trump ordered that military aid be withheld until Ukraine announce that it was investigating the Bidens and the crack pot conspiracy theory accepted by Donald that it was Ukraine rather than Russia who hacked the DNC emails.


A lack of integrity, political expediency and overwhelming in-your face hypocrisy prevents republicans from acknowledging what is obvious or to criticize Trump's conduct in the even mildest of terms. Trump is the GOP and is the purest manifestation of its heart and soul.  


Trump's impeachment ire turns on Pompeo amid diplomats' starring roles Donald is unhappy with Pompeo's failure to prevent State Department employees from providing truthful information about the Duck's conduct.

Trump attacks Pence aide who said Ukraine call was 'unusual and inappropriate' Donald is doing what he can to punish republican politicians and even their staff members for stating what is obviously true.  70% of Americans say Trump’s actions tied to Ukraine were wrong: POLL - ABC News

In 30 or 40 years from now, when more facts are known about Trump's conduct than now, and tribalism in his favor is at best a faint glimmer of what it is now, I suspect strongly that Trump will be considered the most corrupt President in U.S. history, with a consensus opinion among those who remember him and historians that he committed multiple acts worthy of impeachment, going beyond the matters investigated by Mueller, his obstruction efforts, and the Ukraine matter. 


That does not mean that his Presidency will be judged a failure when measured by criteria (e.g. the economy) that ignores his abuses of power, corruption, dishonestly and lies, persistent maliciousness, his constant attacks on the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy and his preference for authoritarian rule, rampant demagoguery and other manifestations of extremely undesirable personality traits that render him an undeniably disgusting person except to the Trumpsters of course.  



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Stephanie Grisham, the Duck's new Press Secretary, has already become thoroughly immersed in the Alternate Reality known as TrumpWorld. White House press secretary claims Obama staffers left incoming Trump team hostile missives — then Obama staffers reveal their actual notes - MarketWatchStephanie Grisham, Trump press secretary, faces backlash over claim Obama aides left ?you will fail? notes - The Washington Post Just make things up that the Trumpsters want to hear.


Devin Nunes continues to promote debunked conspiracy theories. Devin Nunes Uses Impeachment Hearing to Spew Conspiracy Theories | Vanity Fair The republican mind is simply prone to accept fact free conspiracy theories, provided the conspiracy theory can be used to attack their political opponents and others that they dislike (e.g. non-WASPs and WASPs to the left of Sean Hannity) 


Devin Nunes: Giuliani associate willing to tell Congress that Nunes met with ex-Ukrainian official to get dirt on Biden  

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All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.

1. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:


A. Bought 50  CODIPRB at $24.96:




I received 10K in this account from a maturing treasury bill. I redeployed $1,248 into this riskier and high yielding security.


Issuer: Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19
2018 Annual Report

Closing Price Yesterday: CODI-PB $25.00 +$0.04 +0.17% 

Compass owns a controlling interest in 8 businesses described in its 10-Q and 10K filings. 


Security: Fixed to Floating Rate Equity Preferred Stock (senior only to common stock in the capital structure)


Prospectus


Par Value: $25


Current Coupon: 7.875% until but excluding 2028


Floating Rate: If the issuer does not redeem at par value on or after 4/30/28, the coupon will float at a 4.985% spread to the 3 month Libor reset quarterly


Libor rates will soon be phased out and replaced with some other mechanism for setting rates. The prospectus deals with this issue at page S-34. I will generally be a short term owner of U.S. equity preferred stocks which I view as a disfavored niche income category.


My dividend yield will be slightly above the coupon rate.


Dividends: Quarterly and Cumulative


Last Ex Dividend Date: 10/11/19


Stopper Clause: Yes



For Compass to defer the preferred dividends, it must first cease paying a cash dividend to the common shareholders. This kind of clause enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash over only the common shareholders.

Distributions will be reported on a K-1 rather than a 1099 which has kept me from fooling with CODI's common or preferred shares. (page S-28 of the prospectus). Now I am looking for yield investments and may tolerate 1 K-1 filing. I may also reconsider my willingness to fool with that tax reporting issue and sell for a small profit.


Compass sold last week a Series C cumulative preferred stock with a fixed coupon of 7.875%, identical to its series B, which will not turn into a floater and may be redeemed at the $25 par value on or after 1/30/25.  Prospectus

2. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks

A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$17.55 (C$1 Commission):



Issuer:  USD priced Fortis Inc (FTS) 

Par Value: C$25

Prospectus Excerpt: 


Coupon: Resets Every 5 years at a 2.48% spread to the five year Canadian government bond

Last Reset: Effective starting on 12/1/19 to and excluding 12/1/2024

Fortis has an option to redeem at par value on the reset dates. 

New Penny rate per share: C$.2445625 (C$.97825 annually)



Yield at New Penny Rate at C$17.55 per share =  5.57%

Dividends: Quarterly and Cumulative  

There will be one more coupon payment at the old rate of $.25625 per share, which went ex dividend on 11/18/19 after my purchase.

I like to mix and match the Canadian reset equity preferred stocks.


The primary rational for buying this one relates to the possible scenario that rates will decline further.


Hopefully, if the position is held on the next reset date, the coupon will be higher.


Fortis did not provide the reset coupon percentage which I calculated at 3.913%. That would mean that the Canadian 5 year bond was at about a 1.43% yield on the calculation date.


I will consider averaging down with another 50 share purchase when and if the purchase price produces a dividend yield in excess of 6.2%.


3. Small Bar -Equity REIT:


A. Started Small Ball "Buy Program" in VTR-Bought 10 at $58.32 and 2 at $57.61:





Quote: Ventas Inc. (VTR)


Closing Price Yesterday: VTR $57.41 -$0.08 -0.14% 

Website: Ventas-Healthcare Real Estate Investment

Property Classification:




SEC Filings2018 Annual Report10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19


5 Year Chart Day of Purchase: Classified as ongoing bear market




What does this chart look like?  Long term bull or long term bear?


A defining characteristic of a long term bear market is a lot of up and down chart that ends up going nowhere over a long period. 


The total return may end up being positive, unadjusted for inflation and taxes, but the only way to make a decent return is by selling the rips and buying the dips. 


The annual average five year total return was 1.71% through 11/18.


VTR Information Day of Purchase (11/18/19)




Dividend: Quarterly at $.7925 per share ($3.17 annually)


Dividend Information | Ventas


Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/30/19


Dividend Yield at $58.2: 5.447 %


Dividend Reinvestment: Will consider after acquiring 30 shares but current five year chart suggests that the better option for now is to take the dividend in cash. 


Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19)SEC Filed Press Release




The stock price was torched in response to this earnings report. 

The problem was in the senior housing segment, where competition, oversupply and increases in labor and other costs are having a negative impact.


The decree of the decline was also a function of the stock being overvalued before the release.


Since I have no confidence that the selling pressure is over, I elected to start with a 10 share lot. 


Based on what I know now, I will likely add more aggressively in the $45 to $50 range, compared to averaging down with 2 to 5 share lots above that range.   

Analysts: On 11/19, J P Morgan lowered its PT to $62 from $71. 

In a report dated 11/19/19, Argus raised its recommendation to buy from hold and set a $67 PT. 

S & P currently rates VTR with 4 stars and a 12 month PT of $66. 

Morningstar currently rates VTR with 3 stars and a fair value estimate of $64. 

The Argus, S & P and Morningstar reports are available to Schwab brokerage customers. I do not have access to the JPM report. 

Senior Unsecured Bonds vs. the Common Stock


I can not find any prior purchases of the common stock.


 I have been an active buyer and seller of  VTR's senior unsecured debt. 

I have sold most of my VTR SU bonds into the robust bond rally this year. 










2019 Realized Gain VTR SU Bonds: $339.79 

I still own the following VTR SU bonds in my Fidelity and Vanguard accounts: $4K total in par values


Snapshots 11/23/19

Unrealized Gains = $162.96 as of 11/23 using the third party prices provided by the two brokers. 

The common stock dividend yield is higher than any of the bonds that I I have owned or currently own. However, the total return of the bonds that I have owned or still own have provided a greater total return than ownership of the common stock over the past five years.   

The advantages of the bonds are that the (1) coupon can not be reduced, (2) the par value will be paid on a date certain provided there is no intervening bankruptcy; (3) the total return is known on the date of purchase to the penny (more certainty); (4) a failure to make interest payments will trigger a default that will lead to bankruptcy if not cured within a limited time period; and (5) the claim to cash is superior to the common shareholder.   


Maximum Position: 50 Shares

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


4. Eliminations and ParesSmall Ball Rules


A. Pared SLB-Sold 5 Shares at $36.59:


Quote: Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)


Closing Price Yesterday: SLB $36.61 -$0.01 -0.03% 

SLB Analyst Estimates 


SEC Filings


10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19


Profit Snapshot: +$13.21




Average Cost Per share before Pare: $32.87


Average Cost Per Share after Pare: $32.63



Snapshots 11/7 During Trading Day
Last DiscussedStocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.B. Added 2 SLB at $31.02 (10/26/19 Post);  Item # 1.A. Initiated Small Purchase Program for SLB: Bought 15 SLB at $33.95; 5 at $32 and 5 at $31.39 (9/7/19 Post)

The 5 shares sold were part of the 15 share lot bought at $33.95, the highest cost lot in the chain.


Dividend: Quarterly at $.5


Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/3/19


Dividend Yield at $32.63 6.13%


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes when the likely reinvestment price is below $50 per share.


Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): SEC Filed Press Release


Most of SLB's recent earnings reports have reflected weakness in the oil service sector except in some geographic exploration areas.


The energy stock sector has been in a bear market since the 2014 summer.


The duration of that bear market is not knowable IMO, and there is no reason now to declare that it has ended.


After identifying a long term bear market in a stock, stock sector or major indexes, the operative word for me is caution, coupled with an effort to understand why. 


There was a sequential increase in 2019 third quarter revenues compared tot he second quarter. Worldwide revenue for the quarter was reported at $8.4B, up 3% sequentially.


Net income, excluding items, declined Y-O-Y to $596M from $644M in the 2018 third quarter. Free cash flow for the nine months ending in September was $1.242B, up from $1.061B for the same period last year.


There was a $12.7B pre-tax charge in the last quarter which "is almost entirely noncash and primarily" related to "goodwill, intangible assets and fixed assets". 


Purchase Restriction and Trading Rules: Small Ball


Maximum Position: 50 shares + shares bought with dividends


Current Position: 22+ shares


Lowest Price Lot in Current Chain: $31.02 (next purchase has to be below this price) 


The main goal in small ball trading is capital preservation, achieved in part by selling dividend paying stocks into rallies and buying dips. 



Other capital preservation techniques, broadly categorized as risk management, are (1) baby lot buys which results in limited at risk cash exposure; (2) on and off dividend reinvestment based on price levels; (3) tightly controlled buying mostly in high yield stocks or stocks with a long history of dividend increases; and (4) buying only when the price is at the lowest price in the chain other than the dividend reinvestment price.  

The secondary goals are to generate income and to harvest some capital gains by selling the highest cost lots which reduces my average cost per share and increases my dividend yield.   

B. Sold 10 GWX at $31.23




Quote: SPDR S&P International Small Cap ETF Overview


Closing Price Yesterday: GWX $31.01 +$0.07 +0.23% 

Profit Snapshot: +$13.59



Item # 3.A. Bought 10 GWX at $29.87 (2/9/19 Post) 

Sponsor's Website: GWX: SPDR S&P International Small Cap ETF


Expense Ratio: .4%


I am going to limit my foreign stock ETFs to the lowest expense ratio funds. Those ETFs include IEUR, VWO,  and VEA.


C. Sold 10 EMGF at $44.3




Quote iShares MSCI Emerging Multi-Factor ETF Overview 


Closing Price Yesterday: EMGF $43.22 -$0.02 -0.05% 

Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor Emerging Markets ETF 


Expense Ratio: .45% after .03% waiver


Profit Snapshot:  +22.99




Rationale: See  Item B above. 

5. Small Ball Adds- Energy Sector (ongoing bear market)


A. Bought 1 OXY at $38.64; 1 at $38.2 and 1 at $37.77:









OXY is a falling knife in a waterfall chart formation. I am adding to the position only in 1 share lots now using the small ball trading rule.  


Quote: Occidental Petroleum Corp. 


Closing Price Yesterday: OXY $39.58 +$0.46 +1.18% 

OXY Analyst Estimates 


SEC Filings 


10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19 


OXY 5 Year Chart: Ongoing bear market 


There is as of yet no indication that the bear market cycle is over. Any investment in now will likely have to be a long term hold. 


Berkshire Hathaway: In addition to owning OXY cumulative preferred stock, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in a 11/15 SEC filing that it had acquired over $300M in OXY common stock.


Dividend: $.79 per share ($3.16 annually)


Occidental Announces Dividend 


Next Ex Dividend: 12/9/2019


Dividend Yield at Average cost of $42.55 = 7.43%


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes as a means to average down


Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): SEC Filed Press Release 


The market responded unfavorably to this report and justifiably so IMO. 5 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling (And 2 New Stakes)


The earnings report and the 40% reduction in 2020 capital spending to pay down the debt confirmed opinions that were already held by many that the Anadarko deal was ill advised, a conclusion manifested in the OXY's stock chart.


"Total average daily production volume for the third quarter of 2019 was 1,155,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), which included legacy Anadarko continuing operations of 377,000 BOE and discontinued Africa operations of 41,000 BOE."


Carl Icahn is not happy. Icahn to launch proxy fight at Occidental Petroleum, slams Anadarko deal- Seeking Alpha


Assets sales are proceeding to reduce the debt load acquired as a result of the Anadarko acquisition. Exclusive: Occidental seeks up to $700 million for Anadarko assets in Wyoming, Colorado - sources - Reuters


While investors are pricing OXY's acquisition as disaster, and that is undeniably the case over the short term, it is too early to form that opinion over the longer term IMO.


Current Position: 22 shares


Maximum Position: 30 shares 


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule 


DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

8 comments:

  1. Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)
    $30.47 +$0.83 +2.80
    Last Updated: Nov 26, 2019 at 10:07 a.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/hta

    Stifel upgraded HTA to buy from hold and raised the PT to $33 from $30. HTA is a medical office REIT. Stifel upgraded HR and DOC to buy ratings as well.

    I currently own 50 HTA shares but maybe not for long.

    Item # 4. Bought 50 HTA at $26.88-Used Commission Free Trade:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/07/observations-and-sample-of-recent_13.html

    I have traded HTA SU bonds and took a skinny dip into the common due to its higher yield. HTA has redeemed several bonds that I owned early, willing to pay a make whole premium to par value to do so.

    E.g. Item # 3.C.
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/09/observations-and-sample-of-recent_28.html

    Item # 5.A.
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/09/observations-and-sample-of-recent_25.html


    VTR which is discussed in this post has exposure to that property segment, which is not the problem for that stock. VTR's exposure to senior housing and its excessive price prior to the last earnings reports are the major sources of its recent share price woes.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Gyb called @$25+, had been trading @~$22!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dr: Still teaching computer science. The depositor has had the right to redeem that synthetic floater since 5/15/09 at its $25 par value. I started trading GYB in 2009, but do not have a position now.

    The underlying bond is currently trading at over 134 so there is an incentive for the issuer to redeem:

    http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C181534&symbol=GS.SF

    I have not been paying attention to this niche category of exchange traded bonds.

    I would also note that a synthetic with the same underlying bond, PYT, is up 6.52% today which probably indicates that it has not been called.

    PPLUS Trust Series GSC-2 GSC 2 CT FL RT (PYT)
    $22.05+1.35 (+6.52%)
    As of 10:31AM EST.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PYT?p=PYT&.tsrc=fin-srch

    That one can be redeemed by the depositor now at $25.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1294808/000094787104001696/f424b5_071504-gsc2.txt

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is interesting that the GYB redemption notice was filed with the SEC on 11/22, but the price did not spike to par value until 11/26:

      Redemption Notice:
      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289838/000119312519298570/d825172dex991.htm

      The price did close at $22.35 yesterday on higher than normal volume.

      The depositor for GYB is UBS.

      The depositor for PYT, which has the same underlying security, is Merrill Lynch. There is no guarantee of course that ML will exercise its call warrant for PYT.

      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1294808/000094787104001696/f424b5_071504-gsc2.txt

      Links to my prior discussions of PYT and GYB can be found in the symbol link column to the right.

      Delete
    2. I have a couple additional points about GYB.

      First, there was a T2 trading halt that went into effect at 9:13 C.S.T after 264,631 shares had traded with an open at $22.45. This halt is called when there has been a material news event that has not been disseminated through a Regulation FD compliant method. A filing with the SEC apparently does not qualify.

      Second, I linked a copy of the SEC filed notice which notes that the call at par value is conditional on the trustee receiving the redemption amount plus accrued and unpaid interest from the depositor. In almost all cases, that has happened but there was one or two examples from the past (and I do not recall the specifics) where the depositor failed to deposit the funds with the trustee needed to redeem the trust certificates.

      Once that deposit is made, then the trustee will disperse the proceeds to the owners of GYB and will then the deliver the underlying bonds to the depositor as the trust liquidates. The depositor can then sell the bonds in the bond market.

      As to PYT, Merrill Lynch may have an incentive to exercise the call warrant and then sell the bonds, but there may be one or more reasons why he has not done so, including some kind of hedging that would cost too much to unwind which was an issue discussed in an article published several years ago relating to another synthetic floater.

      The PYT Trust owns $35M in principal amount of the 2034 GS junior bond.

      PYT SEC Filings
      https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001294808&owner=exclude&count=40&hidefilings=0

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  4. Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)
    $32.60 -$1.45 -4.26%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/irm

    A number of authors at SeekingAlpha, including Brad Thomas, are bullish on IRM. I have never been bullish. Skeptical is a better word.

    I am not as bearish as the Credit Suisse analyst who reduced his price target today to $18 from $21.

    The trigger for that analyst was replacing the CFO who had a deep background in REIT accounting with a new one who does not, according to that analyst.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iron-mountain-announces-cfo-transition-300964908.html

    The CS analyst is also noted in his report dated 11/25 that the third quarter cash flow was underwhelming, organic revenue growth was anemic at +1%; and the company is engaged in a $240M restructuring program that will allegedly cut costs.

    In his 11/7/19 report, the analyst expressed concern that the dividend may be cut based on what the company said during the last conference call, suggesting to this analyst that IRM will seek to balance dividend growth/payout ratio with stepped up investments in data centers. If the company aligned its dividend with other data center rates, a hypothetical advanced by the analyst, the result would be a 30% cut in the dividend, which is speculation, but a cut may be necessary with significant investments to expand the data center business.

    I have pared my IRM position down to 36+ shares with an average cost per share of $30.74. The lowest priced lot in the current chain is a 10 share buy at $29.51. I am reinvesting the dividend.

    While the CS analyst makes some good points, I am not convinced that $18 PT is reasonable based on what is known now.

    Summary of Last Earnings Report:

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3512326-iron-mountain-minus-2-percent-revenue-miss-lowered-outlook

    "Iron Mountain expects to continue growing its dividend, although at a more modest pace going forward."

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iron-mountain-reports-third-quarter-2019-results-300948807.html

    Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/13

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  5. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/11/observations-and-sample-of-recent_27.html

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  6. Happy Thanksgiving!

    "China continues to claim that it wants a trade deal based on "mutual respect and equality." I view those as code words for China pushing back on Trump's demands and/or major disagreements about how tariffs will be phased out."

    I suspect Trump's pushing something in the family of what he did with Ukraine. Not a blackmail but something underhanded and bizarre.

    I've had cooking to do, and appts... so haven't kept up, but the market seems to be yawning at it all, and end of year buying by managers to make their portfolio look good.

    ReplyDelete