Economy:
US GDP Q3 2019 second reading The second estimate was +2.1% real GDP growth, up from the previous 1.9% estimate.
US durable goods orders October 2019 (+.6% after falling 1.9% in September which was negatively impacted by the GM strike. However, excluding defense, durable goods orders fell .1% in October)
Pending home sales fall 1.7% in October, as housing shortage worsens (up 4.4% Y-O-Y)
U.S. consumer spending climbs again in October even as incomes fall flat - MarketWatch
Personal Income and Outlays, October 2019 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
China threatens 'strong counter-measures' after Hong Kong bill signings
Canada PM: a 'little more work' is needed on USMCA trade deal - Reuters
Calculated Risk: Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Charting a persistent late-year breakout, S&P 500 tags technical target (3,140) - MarketWatch
Wien: Stocks have room rise and this is nothing like 2006 or 1999
Buffett sitting on $128 billion raises questions on market valuation
++++++++
Trump:
In Afghanistan, Trump Creates Confusion Over U.S. Policy on Taliban; Trump’s talk of Afghanistan cease-fire appears to surprise the Taliban, Afghan government-The Washington Post In previous negotiations, the Taliban had rejected U.S. demands for a cease fire. Donald claimed that the U.S. was meeting with the Taliban and now the Taliban "wants to a cease fire" as opposed to a reduction in violence which was the status of the negotiations when Donald abruptly cancelled talks last September. The Taliban responded to Donald by saying their position remains the same as in September: “We are ready to talk, but we have the same stance to resume the talks from where it was suspended."
President Trump is Damaging Our Military: War Crimes Cases are the Latest Example
This is a link to an opinion column written by Slade Gordon, a former GOP Senator from Washington. Opinion | My Fellow Republicans, Please Follow the Facts - The New York Times The odds of republican politicians doing so are non-existent. Republican politicians like Slade Gordon's do not exist in the modern day GOP.
Trump lies about anything and everything. AP FACT CHECK: Trump and the Apple plant he didn’t open; Did Trump open a 'major Apple Manufacturing plant' in Austin? No. | PolitiFact Texas If a news media organization points out the false statement, that is Fake News in TrumpWorld.
Trump denies sending Rudy Giuliani to Ukraine to push Biden, election probes; Trump Giuliani Ukraine efforts: Trump denies sending Giuliani to Ukraine - CBS News This denial contradicts previous statements made by Giuliani and Trump as well as sworn testimony given by several witnesses during the recent impeachment hearing. With that denial from Trump, he has probably undercut Giuliani's claim that his communications with Trump on the Ukraine matters is protected by the attorney client privilege.
I would note that Trump mentioned Giuliani several times in his 7/25 conversation with Zelensky as Donald's point person for the Biden and Crowdstrike investigations. If lying all of the time is one of the modern day GOP's "conservative" values, then Donald is their messiah or patron saint.
Giuliani Pursued Business in Ukraine While Pushing for Inquiries for Trump
Giuliani was in talks to be paid by Ukraine’s top prosecutor as they together sought damaging information on Democrats
This is a link to an editorial published in the Washington Post on September 7, 2019: Is Trump strong-arming Volodymyr Zelensky for political gain? - The Washington Post ("But we’re reliably told that the president has a second and more venal agenda: He is attempting to force Mr. Zelensky to intervene in the 2020 U.S. presidential election by launching an investigation of the leading Democratic candidate, Joe Biden. Mr. Trump is not just soliciting Ukraine’s help with his presidential campaign; he is using U.S. military aid the country desperately needs in an attempt to extort it.")
That editorial was published before Donald told Sondland that there was no quid pro quo. And Donald was told about the whistleblower's complaint in late August.
After Demagogue Don knew that he was caught and the "drug deal" was going to blow up in his face, he released the aid and told anyone who would listen there was no quid pro quo. Bolton decried Ukraine 'drug deal,' Donald knew that the Trumpsters would never realize the timing significance of his denial expressed to Sondland. (Note: the Sondland call occurred either on 9/7/19 or 9/9/19 Trump's "No Quid Pro Quo" Call)
Donald- President or King:
George Washington's Advisors Agreed: Impeachment Investigation Did Away with Executive Privilege - Just Security
The new "conservative" position for the modern day GOP is that the President is above the law and can not be investigated while in office.
The republicans further argue that no executive branch employee can be compelled to give testimony or to produce documents unless the President consents, including information and testimony related to an impeachment investigation that the Constitution vests in Congress.
These arguments are fundamentally contrary to basic principles and conservative values that have been part of the American experience starting with the Revolutionary War.
The GOP's arguments are not arguments that any True Conservative would make and are more consistent with authoritarian rule by a single person than U.S. fundamental values.
Donald claims that he has ordered fact witnesses to ignore subpoenas due to his concerns about future Presidents.
If he allowed Bolton, Pompeo, Mulvaney and others to testify about the facts relating to Ukraine, Donald represents that they would exonerate him:
In TrumpWorld, it is just obvious that Donald is actually hurting himself by ordering his underlings to ignore congressional subpoenas.
Donald's obstruction strategy will likely keep fact witnesses from testifying for the remainder of his first term.
The federal district court recently rejected the republican claim that the executive branch employees do not need to show up when subpoenaed by a congressional committee. Judge Rules Don McGahn, Former White House Counsel, Must Testify Before House: NPR
Trump's DOJ has appealed that decision to the federal D.C. Court of Appeals who will likely stay the district court's order.
If a stay is granted, that will delay enforcement of the subpoenas for six months or so.
Then, whoever loses in a 3 judge panel decision, will petition the Supreme Court to review the appellate court decision.
If that petition is granted, which is likely IMO, then the subpoena enforcement will be delayed until 2021 even if Congress wins every court decision and every court finds that the GOP's arguments for absolute immunity from investigation are found to be frivolous.
Even if the courts decide that the witnesses at least have to appear in response to a subpoena, the ultimate and final decision will allow the witnesses to raise privilege claims (e.g. attorney client or executive privilege) in response to particular questions.
Frivolous claims of attorney client and executive testimonial privileges have already been made during depositions, and more of the same will likely occur based on Donald's instructions.
Trump and his DOJ, for example, claim executive privilege covering information supplied in the Mueller investigation that can be read by anyone in the Mueller report. Donald specifically waived any objection to those witnesses answering questions. And, fact witness testimony relating to the commission of a crime would not be covered by an executive privilege even without the waiver.
After frivolous objections about answering questions are raised, the remedy for the congressional committee wanting answers would then be to request a court to compel answers. Whatever decision is made on those specific claims may be appealed.
When faced with Donald's pervasive obstruction of an investigation, the end result is Donald may be able to prevent witnesses from testifying against him until 2022 or 2023.
IMO, the 5 republican Supreme Court justices have already demonstrated their receptiveness to the President as King legal arguments. A 5 to 4 ruling in favor of Trump's absolute testimonial immunity argument would be a step toward authoritarian rule which is what Donald wants.
+++
Nunes' Defamation Lawsuits:
One way that Donald has sought to intimate those providing negative information about him is to file defamation suits against them.
The purpose IMO is to intimate others from coming forward with accurate information about him.
Nunes IMO has adopted the same strategy.
Nunes denies allegation he met with top Ukrainian prosecutor about Bidens Nunes will file yet another defamation suit against news organizations who reported what they were told by Joseph A Bondy, the lawyer for Lev Parnas. Devin Nunes: Giuliani associate willing to tell Congress that Nunes met with ex-Ukrainian official to get dirt on Biden
Nunes claims that it was a "criminal activity" for news organizations to report the claim of someone who has been indicted.
Nunes avoids filing his defamation suits in states with strong anti-slap laws.
His defamation suits are filed in Virginia that provides less protection to those being sued for defamation of a public figure. What GOP Rep. Devin Nunes' Twitter defamation lawsuit says about the future of defamation law ("Anti-SLAPP laws are meant to prevent suits that could curtail free speech or remedy them by forcing plaintiffs to show their likelihood of success early on in the process or by forcing them to potentially pay a defendant's legal fees. This is largely designed to protect the public participation, meaning speech and petition rights, of average citizens and prevent intimidation"); Watchdog Slams Order Allowing Nunes to Sue Twitter in Virginia
Nunes does not want to make a preliminary showing that he will likely succeed, nor does he want to pay the defendants legal fees.
Choosing Virginia has his forum avoids those problems but creates one relating to the Virginia court's personal jurisdiction over non-resident defendants who have no domicile or "minimum" contacts in that state. In Cases of Internet Defamation, Where Can You Sue? — The Virginia Defamation Law Blog — July 23, 2017
Generally, it is easy to establish the contacts necessary for a corporation than a non-resident individual.
The Chronicles of Nunes: How His Impeachment Speeches Created an Alternate Reality for GOP
++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 AHTPRI at $21.54:
Quote: Ashford Hospitality Trust 7.5% Preferred Series I
Closing Price Last Friday: AHT-PI $21.75 +$0.16 +0.74%
Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks part of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
This brings me up to 150 shares or about 100 share more than I want to own.
AHTPRI Prospectus
Issuer: Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)
2018 Annual Report
SEC Filings
AHT 2018 Tax Reporting Info Press Release
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.5%
Yield at $21.54 = 8.7%
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and non-qualified (pass through entity)
Stopper Clause: Yes (enforces superior claim to cash compared only to the common shares)
Assigned Credit Risk Level: HIGH
Issuer Optional Redemption: at par value + unpaid and accrued dividends on or after 11/17/22 (I would view the exercise of that option to be an unexpected blessing)
I view this equity preferred stock to be high risk due to debt levels and cyclicality of the hotel business that lacks long term rentals.
It is questionable whether the preferred stock would have any value in a bankruptcy.
The almost 7% yield disparity between this preferred stock and the ten year treasury yield is a sign of significant credit risk.
I am willing to delve slightly into these higher risk preferred stocks given the increasingly conservative tilt in my asset allocations.
Hopefully, I will be able to sell my highest cost 50 share lot, which is owned in my IB account, when and if I can do profitably.
50 Shares Fidelity Account-Average Total Cost per share = $20.53; Item 1.B. Bought 30 AHTPRI at $21.86-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18); Added 20 AHTPRI at $18.52 Used Commission Free Trade (12/29/18 Post)
50 Shares IB Account-Bought at $22.3: Item # 5 (6/26/19 Post)
50 Shares Schwab Account-TC of $21.54 per share (this post)
Only Round-Trip So Far: Item # 3.B. Sold 50 AHTPRI at $23.16 (4/20/19 Post)
2. Small Ball Adds:
A. Bought 100 AHT at $2.60:
Quote: Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc
Closing Price Last Friday: AHT $2.7500 -$0.0200 -0.72%
SEC Filings
Categories: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy-High Risk; Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: External and viewed by me (IMO) as highly unfavorable to shareholders.
5 Year Chart as of 11/20/19: Ongoing Major Bear Market
AHT Information (day of trade 11/20/19):
The 1 year decline of 44.7% is typical for lottery ticket purchases.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.06 per year ($.24 annually)
The dividend was cut to $.06 from $.12 effective for the 2nd quarter ex dividend, paid in July.
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc Common Stock (AHT) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Dividend yield at $2.6 = 9.25%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19):
RevPar increased by 1.7% for hotels that are not under construction and 1.4% for all hotels.
Ashford Trust Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results
At a minimum, the preceding snapshot does not reflect cash available for distribution since no adjustment is made to account for capital expenditures including routine maintenance which will be significant for hotel REITs.
Recent Developments: Ashford Trust Announces Sale Of Parking Lot Adjacent To Hilton St. Petersburg For $17.5 Million (10/15/19);Ashford Trust Announces Sale of Two Hotels for $37.8 million (8/15/19)
Tax Reporting for 2018 Common and Preferred Stock Dividends: Ashford Trust Announces Tax Reporting Information for 2018 Common and Preferred Share Distributions (100% ROC)
Prior 2019 Round-Trip: I did not discuss in the blog an earlier round-trip that ended up with a $11.35 (before likely ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis early next year) and 1 quarterly dividend payment.
I bailed since it looked like the stock was headed back down and I had also reassessed that my prior entry price of $3.35 was too high which proved to be the case.
B. Added 5 CNP $24.65 and 5 at $24.4:
Quote: CenterPoint Energy Inc.
CNP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Last Friday: CNP $24.56 -$0.11 -0.45%
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2875 ($1.15 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 11/20/19
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes based on valuation and as a means to average down
Last Discussion: Item # 4.A. (11/20/19 Post) I have nothing to add to that recent discussion other than to emphasize that this utility stock has become a falling knife due to the recent punitive rate decision from the Texas regulatory commission.
Current Position: 80 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $26.43
Maximum Position: 100 Shares + Shares purchase with dividends.
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
3. Small Ball Eliminations and Pares:
As previously discussed, I am selling my small stock ETF positions.
A. Sold 7 OEF at $138.95:
Quote OEF Fund - iShares S&P 100 ETF Overview
Profit Snapshot: $86.39
Item # 2.C. Bought 1 OEF at $122.2 (6/5/19 Post); Item #5.A. Bought 1 OEF at $124.62 (5/18/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Bought 5 OEF at $127.88 (4/14/19 Post)(prior trade snapshots = +$1,654,95)
Sponsor's Website: iShares S&P 100 ETF
Expense Ratio: .2%
OEF Realized Trading Gains = $1,741.24
B. Pared OFS-Sold 10 at $12.04 (Fidelity account):
Quote: OFS Capital Corp. (OFS)
Closing Price Last Friday: OFS $11.26 +$0.07 +0.63%
Homepage: Homepage - OFS Capital
OFS SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report
Profit: +$9.74
Average Cost Before Pare: $10.4
Average Cost After Pare: $10.26
I have another position in my Schwab account with a $10.21 average cost per share. I have been selling my highest cost lots.
As previously discussed, I was not pleased with the third quarter report. Item # 4.B. (11/13/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/23/19
Dividend Yield at $10.26 average cost = 13.26%
Goal: Any realized gain on top of the dividend payments.
Shares Still Owned in Fidelity Account: Item # 3B. Bought 10 OFS at $9.95 and 20 at $9.61 Using Fidelity Commission Free Trades (1/9/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Bought 10 OFS $10.75 Used Fidelity Commission Free Trades (11/11/18 Post)
Lowest Price Paid: 20 shares at $9.61 (12/18/18)
OFS Realized Gains to Date = $137.02
4. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 ALAPRA at C$15.06 (C$1 IB Commission):
Quote: ALA-PA.TO
Issuer: AltaGas Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)
Recent News:
AltaGas' Third Quarter Results Saw Strong Performance from the Midstream Business Driven by RIPET and the Advancement of its Energy Export Strategy
AltaGas Reaches an Agreement to Sell its Interest in the Central Penn Pipeline for C$870 Million (9/30/19 Press Release)
Prospectus Except ALAPRA:
Security: Equity Preferred Stock (senior only to common stock in the capital structure)
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 2.66% spread over the 5 year Canadian bond, resetting every five years.
Last Reset: September 2015 at 3.38%
The reset coupon indicates that the 5 year Canadian bond was at .72% on the calculation date. I would anticipate based on currently available information and a reasonable forecast that the next reset in September 2020 will be at a higher coupon.
Penny Rate : Quarterly at $0.21125 per share
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/12/19
These reset equity preferred stocks are interesting since they are selling at deep discounts to par value which will juice the current and reset yields compared to purchases at the C$25 par value.
The coupon is applied to the $C25 par value. At a 2% five year Canadian bond yield on the calculation date and a C$25 cost basis, the coupon and the current yield would be the same at 4.66% but the yield would 7.74% at a total cost of C$15.06.
5. Intermediate Term Bond Basket-Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Sullivan Country 3.625% GO Bonds Maturing on 5/1/46:
Emma EMMA is like FINRA except the former is for municipal bonds.
For my links to EMMA to work, you probably have to have a cookie stored on your computer acknowledging acceptance of their disclaimer.
I am classifying this bond as an intermediate term maturing since I view it as likely that the issuer will call it in 2026.
Sullivan County - Google Maps
Optional Redemption: On or after 5/1/2026 at par + accrued interest
For this bond, I am a current tax free yield hog. To secure more income now, I will lose $266.6 when the bond is redeemed at par value, either through an early redemption or at par value.
Current Tax Free Yield at Total Cost of 105.332 = 3.4415%
The bonds were bought at 105.232. A $1 per bond commission adds .1 to the cost.
Yield to Worst: 2.718% (assumes optional redemption on 5/1/26)
Credit Ratings: Aa2 by Moody's
Security:
6. Cash Flow Fidelity Account 12/2:
Note that Fidelity is crediting my account with cash received today or on Monday. I would not receive a credit in my other accounts until Tuesday 12/3/19, including for the treasuries that matured on 11/30.
I am placing an increased emphasis on municipal bonds rated AA or better.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
US GDP Q3 2019 second reading The second estimate was +2.1% real GDP growth, up from the previous 1.9% estimate.
US durable goods orders October 2019 (+.6% after falling 1.9% in September which was negatively impacted by the GM strike. However, excluding defense, durable goods orders fell .1% in October)
Pending home sales fall 1.7% in October, as housing shortage worsens (up 4.4% Y-O-Y)
U.S. consumer spending climbs again in October even as incomes fall flat - MarketWatch
Personal Income and Outlays, October 2019 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
China threatens 'strong counter-measures' after Hong Kong bill signings
Canada PM: a 'little more work' is needed on USMCA trade deal - Reuters
Calculated Risk: Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Charting a persistent late-year breakout, S&P 500 tags technical target (3,140) - MarketWatch
Wien: Stocks have room rise and this is nothing like 2006 or 1999
Buffett sitting on $128 billion raises questions on market valuation
++++++++
Trump:
In Afghanistan, Trump Creates Confusion Over U.S. Policy on Taliban; Trump’s talk of Afghanistan cease-fire appears to surprise the Taliban, Afghan government-The Washington Post In previous negotiations, the Taliban had rejected U.S. demands for a cease fire. Donald claimed that the U.S. was meeting with the Taliban and now the Taliban "wants to a cease fire" as opposed to a reduction in violence which was the status of the negotiations when Donald abruptly cancelled talks last September. The Taliban responded to Donald by saying their position remains the same as in September: “We are ready to talk, but we have the same stance to resume the talks from where it was suspended."
President Trump is Damaging Our Military: War Crimes Cases are the Latest Example
This is a link to an opinion column written by Slade Gordon, a former GOP Senator from Washington. Opinion | My Fellow Republicans, Please Follow the Facts - The New York Times The odds of republican politicians doing so are non-existent. Republican politicians like Slade Gordon's do not exist in the modern day GOP.
Trump lies about anything and everything. AP FACT CHECK: Trump and the Apple plant he didn’t open; Did Trump open a 'major Apple Manufacturing plant' in Austin? No. | PolitiFact Texas If a news media organization points out the false statement, that is Fake News in TrumpWorld.
Trump denies sending Rudy Giuliani to Ukraine to push Biden, election probes; Trump Giuliani Ukraine efforts: Trump denies sending Giuliani to Ukraine - CBS News This denial contradicts previous statements made by Giuliani and Trump as well as sworn testimony given by several witnesses during the recent impeachment hearing. With that denial from Trump, he has probably undercut Giuliani's claim that his communications with Trump on the Ukraine matters is protected by the attorney client privilege.
I would note that Trump mentioned Giuliani several times in his 7/25 conversation with Zelensky as Donald's point person for the Biden and Crowdstrike investigations. If lying all of the time is one of the modern day GOP's "conservative" values, then Donald is their messiah or patron saint.
Giuliani Pursued Business in Ukraine While Pushing for Inquiries for Trump
Giuliani was in talks to be paid by Ukraine’s top prosecutor as they together sought damaging information on Democrats
This is a link to an editorial published in the Washington Post on September 7, 2019: Is Trump strong-arming Volodymyr Zelensky for political gain? - The Washington Post ("But we’re reliably told that the president has a second and more venal agenda: He is attempting to force Mr. Zelensky to intervene in the 2020 U.S. presidential election by launching an investigation of the leading Democratic candidate, Joe Biden. Mr. Trump is not just soliciting Ukraine’s help with his presidential campaign; he is using U.S. military aid the country desperately needs in an attempt to extort it.")
That editorial was published before Donald told Sondland that there was no quid pro quo. And Donald was told about the whistleblower's complaint in late August.
After Demagogue Don knew that he was caught and the "drug deal" was going to blow up in his face, he released the aid and told anyone who would listen there was no quid pro quo. Bolton decried Ukraine 'drug deal,' Donald knew that the Trumpsters would never realize the timing significance of his denial expressed to Sondland. (Note: the Sondland call occurred either on 9/7/19 or 9/9/19 Trump's "No Quid Pro Quo" Call)
Donald- President or King:
George Washington's Advisors Agreed: Impeachment Investigation Did Away with Executive Privilege - Just Security
The new "conservative" position for the modern day GOP is that the President is above the law and can not be investigated while in office.
The republicans further argue that no executive branch employee can be compelled to give testimony or to produce documents unless the President consents, including information and testimony related to an impeachment investigation that the Constitution vests in Congress.
These arguments are fundamentally contrary to basic principles and conservative values that have been part of the American experience starting with the Revolutionary War.
The GOP's arguments are not arguments that any True Conservative would make and are more consistent with authoritarian rule by a single person than U.S. fundamental values.
Donald claims that he has ordered fact witnesses to ignore subpoenas due to his concerns about future Presidents.
If he allowed Bolton, Pompeo, Mulvaney and others to testify about the facts relating to Ukraine, Donald represents that they would exonerate him:
 |
| 3 Tweets published on 11/26/19 |
In TrumpWorld, it is just obvious that Donald is actually hurting himself by ordering his underlings to ignore congressional subpoenas.
Donald's obstruction strategy will likely keep fact witnesses from testifying for the remainder of his first term.
The federal district court recently rejected the republican claim that the executive branch employees do not need to show up when subpoenaed by a congressional committee. Judge Rules Don McGahn, Former White House Counsel, Must Testify Before House: NPR
Trump's DOJ has appealed that decision to the federal D.C. Court of Appeals who will likely stay the district court's order.
If a stay is granted, that will delay enforcement of the subpoenas for six months or so.
Then, whoever loses in a 3 judge panel decision, will petition the Supreme Court to review the appellate court decision.
If that petition is granted, which is likely IMO, then the subpoena enforcement will be delayed until 2021 even if Congress wins every court decision and every court finds that the GOP's arguments for absolute immunity from investigation are found to be frivolous.
Even if the courts decide that the witnesses at least have to appear in response to a subpoena, the ultimate and final decision will allow the witnesses to raise privilege claims (e.g. attorney client or executive privilege) in response to particular questions.
Frivolous claims of attorney client and executive testimonial privileges have already been made during depositions, and more of the same will likely occur based on Donald's instructions.
Trump and his DOJ, for example, claim executive privilege covering information supplied in the Mueller investigation that can be read by anyone in the Mueller report. Donald specifically waived any objection to those witnesses answering questions. And, fact witness testimony relating to the commission of a crime would not be covered by an executive privilege even without the waiver.
After frivolous objections about answering questions are raised, the remedy for the congressional committee wanting answers would then be to request a court to compel answers. Whatever decision is made on those specific claims may be appealed.
When faced with Donald's pervasive obstruction of an investigation, the end result is Donald may be able to prevent witnesses from testifying against him until 2022 or 2023.
IMO, the 5 republican Supreme Court justices have already demonstrated their receptiveness to the President as King legal arguments. A 5 to 4 ruling in favor of Trump's absolute testimonial immunity argument would be a step toward authoritarian rule which is what Donald wants.
+++
Nunes' Defamation Lawsuits:
One way that Donald has sought to intimate those providing negative information about him is to file defamation suits against them.
The purpose IMO is to intimate others from coming forward with accurate information about him.
Nunes IMO has adopted the same strategy.
Nunes denies allegation he met with top Ukrainian prosecutor about Bidens Nunes will file yet another defamation suit against news organizations who reported what they were told by Joseph A Bondy, the lawyer for Lev Parnas. Devin Nunes: Giuliani associate willing to tell Congress that Nunes met with ex-Ukrainian official to get dirt on Biden
Nunes claims that it was a "criminal activity" for news organizations to report the claim of someone who has been indicted.
Nunes avoids filing his defamation suits in states with strong anti-slap laws.
His defamation suits are filed in Virginia that provides less protection to those being sued for defamation of a public figure. What GOP Rep. Devin Nunes' Twitter defamation lawsuit says about the future of defamation law ("Anti-SLAPP laws are meant to prevent suits that could curtail free speech or remedy them by forcing plaintiffs to show their likelihood of success early on in the process or by forcing them to potentially pay a defendant's legal fees. This is largely designed to protect the public participation, meaning speech and petition rights, of average citizens and prevent intimidation"); Watchdog Slams Order Allowing Nunes to Sue Twitter in Virginia
Nunes does not want to make a preliminary showing that he will likely succeed, nor does he want to pay the defendants legal fees.
Choosing Virginia has his forum avoids those problems but creates one relating to the Virginia court's personal jurisdiction over non-resident defendants who have no domicile or "minimum" contacts in that state. In Cases of Internet Defamation, Where Can You Sue? — The Virginia Defamation Law Blog — July 23, 2017
Generally, it is easy to establish the contacts necessary for a corporation than a non-resident individual.
The Chronicles of Nunes: How His Impeachment Speeches Created an Alternate Reality for GOP
++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added 50 AHTPRI at $21.54:
Quote: Ashford Hospitality Trust 7.5% Preferred Series I
Closing Price Last Friday: AHT-PI $21.75 +$0.16 +0.74%
Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks part of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
This brings me up to 150 shares or about 100 share more than I want to own.
AHTPRI Prospectus
Issuer: Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT)
2018 Annual Report
SEC Filings
AHT 2018 Tax Reporting Info Press Release
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.5%
Yield at $21.54 = 8.7%
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and non-qualified (pass through entity)
Stopper Clause: Yes (enforces superior claim to cash compared only to the common shares)
Assigned Credit Risk Level: HIGH
Issuer Optional Redemption: at par value + unpaid and accrued dividends on or after 11/17/22 (I would view the exercise of that option to be an unexpected blessing)
I view this equity preferred stock to be high risk due to debt levels and cyclicality of the hotel business that lacks long term rentals.
It is questionable whether the preferred stock would have any value in a bankruptcy.
The almost 7% yield disparity between this preferred stock and the ten year treasury yield is a sign of significant credit risk.
I am willing to delve slightly into these higher risk preferred stocks given the increasingly conservative tilt in my asset allocations.
Hopefully, I will be able to sell my highest cost 50 share lot, which is owned in my IB account, when and if I can do profitably.
50 Shares Fidelity Account-Average Total Cost per share = $20.53; Item 1.B. Bought 30 AHTPRI at $21.86-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18); Added 20 AHTPRI at $18.52 Used Commission Free Trade (12/29/18 Post)
50 Shares IB Account-Bought at $22.3: Item # 5 (6/26/19 Post)
50 Shares Schwab Account-TC of $21.54 per share (this post)
Only Round-Trip So Far: Item # 3.B. Sold 50 AHTPRI at $23.16 (4/20/19 Post)
2. Small Ball Adds:
A. Bought 100 AHT at $2.60:
Quote: Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc
Closing Price Last Friday: AHT $2.7500 -$0.0200 -0.72%
SEC Filings
Categories: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy-High Risk; Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: External and viewed by me (IMO) as highly unfavorable to shareholders.
5 Year Chart as of 11/20/19: Ongoing Major Bear Market
AHT Information (day of trade 11/20/19):
 |
| Closing Price at $2.66 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.06 per year ($.24 annually)
The dividend was cut to $.06 from $.12 effective for the 2nd quarter ex dividend, paid in July.
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc Common Stock (AHT) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Dividend yield at $2.6 = 9.25%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19):
RevPar increased by 1.7% for hotels that are not under construction and 1.4% for all hotels.
Ashford Trust Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results
At a minimum, the preceding snapshot does not reflect cash available for distribution since no adjustment is made to account for capital expenditures including routine maintenance which will be significant for hotel REITs.
"Subsequent to quarter end, the Company announced the sale of 393,077 shares of Ashford Inc. (NYSE American: AINC) ("Ashford") to Ashford for net proceeds of approximately $11.8 million and a plan to distribute its remaining shares of Ashford to its shareholders and unitholders." The remaining AINC shares were distributed to AHT shareholders before I bought this 100 share lot.
AHT is IMO excessively leveraged which can result when management is external. (See debt list and discussion starting at page 22, 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19
Tax Reporting for 2018 Common and Preferred Stock Dividends: Ashford Trust Announces Tax Reporting Information for 2018 Common and Preferred Share Distributions (100% ROC)
Prior 2019 Round-Trip: I did not discuss in the blog an earlier round-trip that ended up with a $11.35 (before likely ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis early next year) and 1 quarterly dividend payment.
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| Sold 102+ at $3.44 (commission free buy and sell) |
B. Added 5 CNP $24.65 and 5 at $24.4:
Quote: CenterPoint Energy Inc.
CNP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Last Friday: CNP $24.56 -$0.11 -0.45%
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2875 ($1.15 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 11/20/19
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes based on valuation and as a means to average down
Last Discussion: Item # 4.A. (11/20/19 Post) I have nothing to add to that recent discussion other than to emphasize that this utility stock has become a falling knife due to the recent punitive rate decision from the Texas regulatory commission.
Current Position: 80 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $26.43
Maximum Position: 100 Shares + Shares purchase with dividends.
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
3. Small Ball Eliminations and Pares:
As previously discussed, I am selling my small stock ETF positions.
A. Sold 7 OEF at $138.95:
Quote OEF Fund - iShares S&P 100 ETF Overview
Profit Snapshot: $86.39
Item # 2.C. Bought 1 OEF at $122.2 (6/5/19 Post); Item #5.A. Bought 1 OEF at $124.62 (5/18/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Bought 5 OEF at $127.88 (4/14/19 Post)(prior trade snapshots = +$1,654,95)
Sponsor's Website: iShares S&P 100 ETF
Expense Ratio: .2%
OEF Realized Trading Gains = $1,741.24
B. Pared OFS-Sold 10 at $12.04 (Fidelity account):
Quote: OFS Capital Corp. (OFS)
Closing Price Last Friday: OFS $11.26 +$0.07 +0.63%
Homepage: Homepage - OFS Capital
OFS SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report
Profit: +$9.74
Average Cost Before Pare: $10.4
Average Cost After Pare: $10.26
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| Snapshot Intra-day 11/18/19 |
As previously discussed, I was not pleased with the third quarter report. Item # 4.B. (11/13/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/23/19
Dividend Yield at $10.26 average cost = 13.26%
Goal: Any realized gain on top of the dividend payments.
Shares Still Owned in Fidelity Account: Item # 3B. Bought 10 OFS at $9.95 and 20 at $9.61 Using Fidelity Commission Free Trades (1/9/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Bought 10 OFS $10.75 Used Fidelity Commission Free Trades (11/11/18 Post)
Lowest Price Paid: 20 shares at $9.61 (12/18/18)
OFS Realized Gains to Date = $137.02
4. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 ALAPRA at C$15.06 (C$1 IB Commission):
Issuer: AltaGas Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)
Recent News:
AltaGas' Third Quarter Results Saw Strong Performance from the Midstream Business Driven by RIPET and the Advancement of its Energy Export Strategy
AltaGas Reaches an Agreement to Sell its Interest in the Central Penn Pipeline for C$870 Million (9/30/19 Press Release)
Prospectus Except ALAPRA:
Security: Equity Preferred Stock (senior only to common stock in the capital structure)
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 2.66% spread over the 5 year Canadian bond, resetting every five years.
Last Reset: September 2015 at 3.38%
The reset coupon indicates that the 5 year Canadian bond was at .72% on the calculation date. I would anticipate based on currently available information and a reasonable forecast that the next reset in September 2020 will be at a higher coupon.
Penny Rate : Quarterly at $0.21125 per share
This rate will remain to but excluding 9/30/2020 when the coupon will reset.
Current Yield: 5.61%
If the 5 year Canadian had a 1.5% yield on the next calculation date, the coupon would increase from 3.38% to 4.16%, and the yield would increase to 6.91%. At a 2% 5 year bond yield, the yield would increase to 7.74%.
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/12/19
These reset equity preferred stocks are interesting since they are selling at deep discounts to par value which will juice the current and reset yields compared to purchases at the C$25 par value.
The coupon is applied to the $C25 par value. At a 2% five year Canadian bond yield on the calculation date and a C$25 cost basis, the coupon and the current yield would be the same at 4.66% but the yield would 7.74% at a total cost of C$15.06.
5. Intermediate Term Bond Basket-Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Sullivan Country 3.625% GO Bonds Maturing on 5/1/46:
Emma EMMA is like FINRA except the former is for municipal bonds.
For my links to EMMA to work, you probably have to have a cookie stored on your computer acknowledging acceptance of their disclaimer.
I am classifying this bond as an intermediate term maturing since I view it as likely that the issuer will call it in 2026.
Sullivan County - Google Maps
Optional Redemption: On or after 5/1/2026 at par + accrued interest
For this bond, I am a current tax free yield hog. To secure more income now, I will lose $266.6 when the bond is redeemed at par value, either through an early redemption or at par value.
Current Tax Free Yield at Total Cost of 105.332 = 3.4415%
The bonds were bought at 105.232. A $1 per bond commission adds .1 to the cost.
Yield to Worst: 2.718% (assumes optional redemption on 5/1/26)
Credit Ratings: Aa2 by Moody's
Security:
6. Cash Flow Fidelity Account 12/2:
Note that Fidelity is crediting my account with cash received today or on Monday. I would not receive a credit in my other accounts until Tuesday 12/3/19, including for the treasuries that matured on 11/30.
I am placing an increased emphasis on municipal bonds rated AA or better.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Why the drop today? I see no obvious news.
ReplyDeleteLand: The ISM manufacturing PMI was weak at 48.1 vs. the consensus at 49.4. Any number below 50 indicates contraction.
DeleteTrump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Brazil and Argentina.
Some Stock Jocks are starting to worry that Trump will slap more tariffs on China's exports on 12/15.
IMO, the market has priced in a Phase 1 trade agreement that is marginally beneficial to the U.S., no new tariffs on China's exports and a rollback of some existing tariffs based on upbeat representations made by Donald.
It would consequently be shocking to most stock investors to have a major escalation in the trade war starting in about two weeks.
Did my reply disappear? I'd posted something like:
DeleteDoes snort count as a response?
Thank you for the info!
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/12/cpxpre-dgro-fcom-fdrr-fdvv-ht-pfxf-sar.html