Economy:
Last Friday, Larry Kudlow, the media personality who is Donald's chief economic advisor (having graduated with a B.A. decree in history from the University of Rochester), clearly indicated that the trade deal with China was just about done, suggesting that someone needed to explain it to the Duck in less than 1 minute with color slides to convince him to sign off.
The statement made by China over the weekend did not appear to mesh with Kudlow's representations made to investors who immediately acted upon them last Friday by driving stocks to new all time highs. China and US had 'constructive discussions' about phase-one trade deal China merely mentioned that constructive discussions about "each other's core concerns" were continuing.
US-China trade deal mood is pessimistic in Beijing, according to government source
Sitting at a desk in Tennessee, I can only say that the negotiations have been ongoing for more than a year and previous claims made by Trump and others in his administration have proven to be too optimistic about the time frame for a positive outcome.
Possibly, there is reason for optimism now, but I would not bet money on the representations made by Donald, Kudlow and Mnuchin.
China has to know that Donald is 100% untrustworthy.
Trump threatens higher tariffs if China doesn't make a trade deal (11/19) So why did Donald make this threat yesterday if the agreement was almost done?
Gary Cohn: Trump will impose tariffs on 12/15 if no deal with China
U.S. Senate passes HK rights bill backing protesters, angers Beijing - Reuters
China cuts repo rate - Reuters
China diversifying FX reserves, assets to counter US dollar exposure
The statement made by China over the weekend did not appear to mesh with Kudlow's representations made to investors who immediately acted upon them last Friday by driving stocks to new all time highs. China and US had 'constructive discussions' about phase-one trade deal China merely mentioned that constructive discussions about "each other's core concerns" were continuing.
US-China trade deal mood is pessimistic in Beijing, according to government source
Sitting at a desk in Tennessee, I can only say that the negotiations have been ongoing for more than a year and previous claims made by Trump and others in his administration have proven to be too optimistic about the time frame for a positive outcome.
Possibly, there is reason for optimism now, but I would not bet money on the representations made by Donald, Kudlow and Mnuchin.
China has to know that Donald is 100% untrustworthy.
Trump threatens higher tariffs if China doesn't make a trade deal (11/19) So why did Donald make this threat yesterday if the agreement was almost done?
Gary Cohn: Trump will impose tariffs on 12/15 if no deal with China
U.S. Senate passes HK rights bill backing protesters, angers Beijing - Reuters
China cuts repo rate - Reuters
China diversifying FX reserves, assets to counter US dollar exposure
The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimated 4th quarter growth at .3% as of 11/15, down from the 1% estimated on 11/8. GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
The NY Fed GDP model is predicted .4% GDP growth in the 4th quarter as of 11/15. Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
The government's first estimate of 3rd quarter GDP was reported at 1.9%. Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
The NY Fed GDP model is predicted .4% GDP growth in the 4th quarter as of 11/15. Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
The government's first estimate of 3rd quarter GDP was reported at 1.9%. Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
 |
| GDP Q1 and Q2 Actual; Q3 1st Estimate |
Markets and Market Commentary:
Market has more room to run if S&P 500 ends 2019 up 25%, history shows
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had an annual average total return of 17.61% starting on 3/9/2009 and ending yesterday, unadjusted for inflation and taxes. The total return was 467.35% before adjusting for taxes and inflation.
The two prior long term secular bull markets lasted about 15 years (1950 to 1966) and 18 years (1982-2000).
Using a start date of 1/1/1950 and end date of 12/31/1965 (approximate period for that long term secular bull market), the SPX annual average total return was 16% and 13.82% adjusted for inflation. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment
"Total return" includes dividend reinvestment
Using a start date of August 1982 and end date of March 2000, the SPX annual average total return was 19.292% and 15.546% adjusted for inflation.
I would characterize the ongoing long term secular bull market to be consistent with those two prior periods.
The question is how much will be taken away when the current bull market ends and is replaced with a long term bear cycle. That is unknowable.
The worst long term bear market in my lifetime started around January 1966 and ended in August 1982. This period was marked by problematic inflation. While the SPX annual average total return of 5.086%, the inflation adjusted annual average total return was -1.813 with a negative total return over that long period of -26.055%. Those numbers are not adjusted down for taxes paid on the dividend income.
If I treated the rally starting in 2003 and ending in October 2007 as a cyclical bull market within the confines of a long term bear market (and long term secular bear cycles can have one or more of those), the SPX annual average total return starting in April 2000 and ending in February 2009 was -4.885% and -7.163% adjusted for inflation.
There are several lessons to be learned from the historical data.
First, to benefit from stock ownership, it is imperative to capture most of the total return during long term secular bull markets.
Second, the market will take back the "excess" gains created during the long bull cycles.
Third, long periods of negative inflation adjusted total returns are difficult to tolerate. During each prior long term bear cycle, there has been at least one Catastrophic Event, defined here as a relatively quick decline of 45%+. Those events can occur at the start of the bear cycle (1929-1932; 2000-2009), or midway through (1974). The urge to flee will overwhelm most investors; notwithstanding their beliefs before the onset of such events that they will stay the course and even buy when there is blood in the streets.
The Catastrophic Events do provide the best buying opportunities.
The main question is whether the Catastrophic Event morphs into a Great Depression, where the DJIA went down over 80% before bottoming, or a standard Catastrophic Event where the decline will generally stop in the 45% to 55% range.
Fourth, while buying SPX in 1950 and holding onto now, through thick and thin, would have produced a good overall result, individuals generally face a limited period of time where savings and investment can accumulate before facing situational risks that require the money to be spent.
For someone retiring in 2021 with a 15 year life expectancy for example, a 15 year bear market in both stocks and bonds starting at or near that retirement date could easily be a disaster for them.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had an annual average total return of 17.61% starting on 3/9/2009 and ending yesterday, unadjusted for inflation and taxes. The total return was 467.35% before adjusting for taxes and inflation.
The two prior long term secular bull markets lasted about 15 years (1950 to 1966) and 18 years (1982-2000).
Using a start date of 1/1/1950 and end date of 12/31/1965 (approximate period for that long term secular bull market), the SPX annual average total return was 16% and 13.82% adjusted for inflation. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment
"Total return" includes dividend reinvestment
Using a start date of August 1982 and end date of March 2000, the SPX annual average total return was 19.292% and 15.546% adjusted for inflation.
I would characterize the ongoing long term secular bull market to be consistent with those two prior periods.
The question is how much will be taken away when the current bull market ends and is replaced with a long term bear cycle. That is unknowable.
The worst long term bear market in my lifetime started around January 1966 and ended in August 1982. This period was marked by problematic inflation. While the SPX annual average total return of 5.086%, the inflation adjusted annual average total return was -1.813 with a negative total return over that long period of -26.055%. Those numbers are not adjusted down for taxes paid on the dividend income.
If I treated the rally starting in 2003 and ending in October 2007 as a cyclical bull market within the confines of a long term bear market (and long term secular bear cycles can have one or more of those), the SPX annual average total return starting in April 2000 and ending in February 2009 was -4.885% and -7.163% adjusted for inflation.
There are several lessons to be learned from the historical data.
First, to benefit from stock ownership, it is imperative to capture most of the total return during long term secular bull markets.
Second, the market will take back the "excess" gains created during the long bull cycles.
Third, long periods of negative inflation adjusted total returns are difficult to tolerate. During each prior long term bear cycle, there has been at least one Catastrophic Event, defined here as a relatively quick decline of 45%+. Those events can occur at the start of the bear cycle (1929-1932; 2000-2009), or midway through (1974). The urge to flee will overwhelm most investors; notwithstanding their beliefs before the onset of such events that they will stay the course and even buy when there is blood in the streets.
The Catastrophic Events do provide the best buying opportunities.
The main question is whether the Catastrophic Event morphs into a Great Depression, where the DJIA went down over 80% before bottoming, or a standard Catastrophic Event where the decline will generally stop in the 45% to 55% range.
Fourth, while buying SPX in 1950 and holding onto now, through thick and thin, would have produced a good overall result, individuals generally face a limited period of time where savings and investment can accumulate before facing situational risks that require the money to be spent.
For someone retiring in 2021 with a 15 year life expectancy for example, a 15 year bear market in both stocks and bonds starting at or near that retirement date could easily be a disaster for them.
Investing returns to be lower in the years ahead, so here's what to do I doubt that it would be reasonable to forecast much, if any, real income returns after taxes from bonds. It is possible that bond yields may go down further, providing some capital gain opportunities, but I will not count on that source of income either even though I have had some success in trading them.
A possible outcome is that the income payments received from bond funds will be wiped out by price depreciation in the owned bonds. That will be easy to do when rates are so low.
For example, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which has a current yield of 2.16%, has a duration of 7.49 years. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | IEF
If interest rates increased by 1%, the rule of thumb is that the bonds owned by IEF would go down 7.49% in value or more than 3 years of interest payments unadjusted for inflation and taxes. Get to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard
After nailing a call for a pullback in June, Canaccord’s Dwyer predicts another S&P 500 slide - MarketWatch
My willingness to stay in stocks is slowly evaporating. I may pull the plug on about 1/2 of my current allocation at anytime now. That is in large part based on the fact that I do not need to take risks.
A possible outcome is that the income payments received from bond funds will be wiped out by price depreciation in the owned bonds. That will be easy to do when rates are so low.
For example, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which has a current yield of 2.16%, has a duration of 7.49 years. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | IEF
If interest rates increased by 1%, the rule of thumb is that the bonds owned by IEF would go down 7.49% in value or more than 3 years of interest payments unadjusted for inflation and taxes. Get to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard
After nailing a call for a pullback in June, Canaccord’s Dwyer predicts another S&P 500 slide - MarketWatch
My willingness to stay in stocks is slowly evaporating. I may pull the plug on about 1/2 of my current allocation at anytime now. That is in large part based on the fact that I do not need to take risks.
++++++++
Trump:
In the Alternate Reality known as TrumpWorld, Fox is called the "fair and balanced network".
Sean Hannity, who has the prime one hour slot on the "fair and balanced" Fox "news" network, started his coverage of Marie Yovanovitch's testimony by declaring that this “a great day for the United States, for the country, for the president — and a lousy day for the corrupt, do-nothing-for-three-years, radical, extreme, socialist Democrats and their top allies known as the media mob.”
Those comments are regarded as fair and impartial reporting in TrumpWorld and are also viewed as intelligent for reasons that are unfathomable.
Factual statements are characterized as Fake News in Trump's America.
These articles explain how Tucker Carlson, Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-NY), and other right wing reality creators manufactured a false perjury claim agains Marie Yovanovitch. Fact-checking Tucker Carlson’s false claim about the testimony of former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine | PolitiFact; No, Fox News — impeachment witness didn't hold secret talks with Dem staffer | Media Matters for America
The Trumpster Lee Zeldin represents New York's 1st congressional district (eastern part of Long Island) and is one of the republican House members who are vulnerable in 2020.
Obama won that district twice, with Donald winning in 2016. Zeldin beat his democrat challenger by 4.1%.
Zeldin beat the democrat incumbent in 2014.
In two prior elections, Zeldin sent mailers to likely democrat voters giving them the deadline to return their absentee ballots which was one day too late. Zeldin mailer uses wrong deadline for absentee ballots | Newsday
Sean Hannity calls Ambassador Yovanovitch “another self-important very narcissistic diplomat snowflake" | Media Matters for America
It is impossible to comprehend why anyone believes that Sean Hannity is dispensing accurate information.
Impeachment Hearings:
Read: Alexander Vindman’s opening statement at impeachment hearings
Trump and the republican House members attacked Vindman including his allegiance to the United States since he was not born in the U.S. and arrived only when he was 3.
Republicans try to smear Alexander Vindman with dual loyalty attack - Business Insider ("Jews have for generations been targeted by the accusation — seized on prominently by the Nazis — that they're loyal to their religion over the country where they have citizenship.")
Vindman's family is Jewish and fled the Ukraine when that country was part of the Soviet Union due to persecution.
Impeachment hearings: Republicans deploy ugly smear against Vindman - Vox
Republicans also attacked Vindman for wearing his Army uniform that he was required to do when testifying before Congress. The attacks on Vindman’s military uniform, explained; Who Is Tim Morrison? Hawkish Aide Loyal to Trump Will Testify - The New York Times
Takeaways: Trump request to Ukraine seen as a "demand"
7 takeaways from Tuesday’s impeachment hearings
A very bad impeachment hearings day for Donald Trump
The republican ideologue Tim Morrison, a long time republican staff member, also testified on behalf of the republicans yesterday.
Impeachment hearings: Republican witness Morrison confirms quid pro quo - Vox; Who Is Tim Morrison? Hawkish Aide Loyal to Trump Will Testify - The New York Times
Kurt Volker, another witness called by the republicans, also testified yesterday. ‘I have learned many things’: Kurt Volker revises Ukraine testimony - POLITICO
It is obvious that the republicans attending the impeachment hearing do not believe that Donald did anything wrong. If a democrat President had committed the same acts, every republican Senator and House representative would be howling for impeachment. Hypocrisy rather than principled action is a given.
Their clear preference is simply to attack the witnesses who have been subpoenaed to give testimony.
Maybe one or two GOP House members on the panel will be punished in the next election for embracing The Ugly American so strongly no matter what he does.
Elise Stefanik is one possibility. The Editorial Board of The Post Star of Glen Falls, N.Y, who endorsed Ms. Stefanik in the past, recently had this to say about her which indicates another endorsement will not be forthcoming: “She is a loyal mouthpiece for Trump’s talking points . . . In a different time, she could have grown into a position of power and respect; instead, she is another Trump acolyte, tossing buzzwords to the mob and crying ‘fake news’ at every fact she wishes would go away.” EDITORIAL: Stefanik is sacrificing her integrity | Editorial | poststar.com That pretty much sums up the modern day GOP which has already burned that bridge.
Giuliani has managed to ruin his reputation except in TrumpWorld. Federal Prosecutors Probe Giuliani's Links to Ukrainian Energy Projects Criminal charges appear to be likely.
Barr Suggests Impeachment Inquiry Undermines Voters’ Intent Barr will do whatever he can to protect his client-Donald Trump-from the lawful and constitutional impeachment investigation.
Analysis: Trump’s core impeachment defense suffers a double blow — including a self-inflicted one In the Alternate Reality that is TrumpWorld, Donald was only interested in rooting out corruption in Ukraine which is why he wanted that country to investigate his political rival Joe Biden and his son.
Donald's laser focus in combating Ukraine corruption started with firing the U.S. ambassador who had been implementing U.S. policy to end corruption. Yovanovitch says her anti-corruption efforts made her a target - Los Angeles Times
Donald's Ukrainian corruption fighting effort was further demonstrated by singing the praises of a corrupt Ukraine prosecutor during his phone call with Zelensky, his overall non-existent corruption fighting efforts, his own corruption, his corrupt linkage of military aid to an investigation of a political opponent, and by cutting foreign aid that assisted in the fight against corruption. We can also ignore that Presidency Zelensky was elected as a corruption fighter and reformer.
The Duck's desire to combat corruption in foreign countries had never manifested itself before requesting that Ukraine investigate the Bidens which is overwhelming proof in the Alternate Reality known as TrumpWorld of Donald's bona fides as a corruption fighter.
The Ukraine depositions destroyed Trump’s “corruption” defense.
Trump administration knew in May the Ukrainians felt pressured to investigate Bidens
Donald Trump’s Gift to Kleptocrats - Center for American Progress
Trump's aides eye moving impeachment witnesses out of White House jobs
++
Trump's Tax Returns:
In the Alternate Reality known as TrumpWorld, Fox is called the "fair and balanced network".
Sean Hannity, who has the prime one hour slot on the "fair and balanced" Fox "news" network, started his coverage of Marie Yovanovitch's testimony by declaring that this “a great day for the United States, for the country, for the president — and a lousy day for the corrupt, do-nothing-for-three-years, radical, extreme, socialist Democrats and their top allies known as the media mob.”
Those comments are regarded as fair and impartial reporting in TrumpWorld and are also viewed as intelligent for reasons that are unfathomable.
Factual statements are characterized as Fake News in Trump's America.
These articles explain how Tucker Carlson, Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-NY), and other right wing reality creators manufactured a false perjury claim agains Marie Yovanovitch. Fact-checking Tucker Carlson’s false claim about the testimony of former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine | PolitiFact; No, Fox News — impeachment witness didn't hold secret talks with Dem staffer | Media Matters for America
The Trumpster Lee Zeldin represents New York's 1st congressional district (eastern part of Long Island) and is one of the republican House members who are vulnerable in 2020.
Obama won that district twice, with Donald winning in 2016. Zeldin beat his democrat challenger by 4.1%.
Zeldin beat the democrat incumbent in 2014.
In two prior elections, Zeldin sent mailers to likely democrat voters giving them the deadline to return their absentee ballots which was one day too late. Zeldin mailer uses wrong deadline for absentee ballots | Newsday
Sean Hannity calls Ambassador Yovanovitch “another self-important very narcissistic diplomat snowflake" | Media Matters for America
It is impossible to comprehend why anyone believes that Sean Hannity is dispensing accurate information.
Impeachment Hearings:
Read: Alexander Vindman’s opening statement at impeachment hearings
Trump and the republican House members attacked Vindman including his allegiance to the United States since he was not born in the U.S. and arrived only when he was 3.
Republicans try to smear Alexander Vindman with dual loyalty attack - Business Insider ("Jews have for generations been targeted by the accusation — seized on prominently by the Nazis — that they're loyal to their religion over the country where they have citizenship.")
Vindman's family is Jewish and fled the Ukraine when that country was part of the Soviet Union due to persecution.
Impeachment hearings: Republicans deploy ugly smear against Vindman - Vox
Republicans also attacked Vindman for wearing his Army uniform that he was required to do when testifying before Congress. The attacks on Vindman’s military uniform, explained; Who Is Tim Morrison? Hawkish Aide Loyal to Trump Will Testify - The New York Times
Takeaways: Trump request to Ukraine seen as a "demand"
7 takeaways from Tuesday’s impeachment hearings
A very bad impeachment hearings day for Donald Trump
The republican ideologue Tim Morrison, a long time republican staff member, also testified on behalf of the republicans yesterday.
Impeachment hearings: Republican witness Morrison confirms quid pro quo - Vox; Who Is Tim Morrison? Hawkish Aide Loyal to Trump Will Testify - The New York Times
Kurt Volker, another witness called by the republicans, also testified yesterday. ‘I have learned many things’: Kurt Volker revises Ukraine testimony - POLITICO
It is obvious that the republicans attending the impeachment hearing do not believe that Donald did anything wrong. If a democrat President had committed the same acts, every republican Senator and House representative would be howling for impeachment. Hypocrisy rather than principled action is a given.
Their clear preference is simply to attack the witnesses who have been subpoenaed to give testimony.
Maybe one or two GOP House members on the panel will be punished in the next election for embracing The Ugly American so strongly no matter what he does.
Elise Stefanik is one possibility. The Editorial Board of The Post Star of Glen Falls, N.Y, who endorsed Ms. Stefanik in the past, recently had this to say about her which indicates another endorsement will not be forthcoming: “She is a loyal mouthpiece for Trump’s talking points . . . In a different time, she could have grown into a position of power and respect; instead, she is another Trump acolyte, tossing buzzwords to the mob and crying ‘fake news’ at every fact she wishes would go away.” EDITORIAL: Stefanik is sacrificing her integrity | Editorial | poststar.com That pretty much sums up the modern day GOP which has already burned that bridge.
Giuliani has managed to ruin his reputation except in TrumpWorld. Federal Prosecutors Probe Giuliani's Links to Ukrainian Energy Projects Criminal charges appear to be likely.
Barr Suggests Impeachment Inquiry Undermines Voters’ Intent Barr will do whatever he can to protect his client-Donald Trump-from the lawful and constitutional impeachment investigation.
Analysis: Trump’s core impeachment defense suffers a double blow — including a self-inflicted one In the Alternate Reality that is TrumpWorld, Donald was only interested in rooting out corruption in Ukraine which is why he wanted that country to investigate his political rival Joe Biden and his son.
Donald's laser focus in combating Ukraine corruption started with firing the U.S. ambassador who had been implementing U.S. policy to end corruption. Yovanovitch says her anti-corruption efforts made her a target - Los Angeles Times
Donald's Ukrainian corruption fighting effort was further demonstrated by singing the praises of a corrupt Ukraine prosecutor during his phone call with Zelensky, his overall non-existent corruption fighting efforts, his own corruption, his corrupt linkage of military aid to an investigation of a political opponent, and by cutting foreign aid that assisted in the fight against corruption. We can also ignore that Presidency Zelensky was elected as a corruption fighter and reformer.
The Duck's desire to combat corruption in foreign countries had never manifested itself before requesting that Ukraine investigate the Bidens which is overwhelming proof in the Alternate Reality known as TrumpWorld of Donald's bona fides as a corruption fighter.
The Ukraine depositions destroyed Trump’s “corruption” defense.
Trump administration knew in May the Ukrainians felt pressured to investigate Bidens
Donald Trump’s Gift to Kleptocrats - Center for American Progress
Trump's aides eye moving impeachment witnesses out of White House jobs
++
Trump's Tax Returns:
Congress can have access to eight years of Trump’s tax records, appeals court orders (A three judge panel decided in a 2 to 1 decision that Congress had the power to review Trump's tax returns. Trump's lawyers requested a rehearing en banc (i.e. review by all 11 judges in the D.C. Circuit). The only legal option left is to file a petition with the Supreme Court requesting their review of the issues.
The Supreme will first decide whether to accept the petition for certiorari.
If denied Trump has no other recourse other than disobeying a court order which would cause a constitutional crisis.
If the petition is accepted, the Supreme Court will set a briefing and hearing schedule and the ultimate resolution would be delayed another year or so)
The Supreme will first decide whether to accept the petition for certiorari.
If denied Trump has no other recourse other than disobeying a court order which would cause a constitutional crisis.
If the petition is accepted, the Supreme Court will set a briefing and hearing schedule and the ultimate resolution would be delayed another year or so)
Trump asks Supreme Court to block tax return subpoena from House What are the odds that Donald has committed multiple acts of tax fraud?
Never-Before-Seen Trump Tax Documents Show Major Inconsistencies-ProPublica;
Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father - The New York Times
+++
Forget the best and brightest. Trump chooses the dim and disgraceful. - The Washington Post (opinion column by republican Max Boot)
Never-Before-Seen Trump Tax Documents Show Major Inconsistencies-ProPublica;
Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father - The New York Times
+++
Forget the best and brightest. Trump chooses the dim and disgraceful. - The Washington Post (opinion column by republican Max Boot)
+++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 PWFPRT at C$16.94 (C$1 IB Commission):
Issuer: Power Financial Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
Power Financial Corporation | Home
Closing Price Yesterday: PWF-PT.TO C$17.60 +C$0.05 +0.28%
Security:
Par Value: C$25
Classification: Reset Equity Preferred
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and Quarterly
Last Coupon Reset: January 2019
Resets: Every 5 years
Coupon: 2.37% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond
Last Reset Coupon = 4.215%
Effective through but not Including 1/31/2024
Optional Redemption: Issuer's Option on reset dates at par + accrued dividends
Current Yield at $16.94 = 6.22%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 10/9/19
Credit Ratings: Investment Grade
Last Reset Notice:
IB is no longer view as a desirable broker after Schwab and Fidelity went to zero commissions when investing is limited solely to U.S. traded securities.
I do not have access to free real time quotes; there are problems and issues importing data into TurboTax; I am charged a higher commission using IB Pro; it is difficult to find the cost basis for multiple lots; and free research materials are non-existent as far as I can tell. Schwab and Fidelity have none of those issues.
Since I do trade on foreign stock exchanges, mostly in Toronto, IB's one advantage is that commissions are cheaper for those trades as is currency conversions.
I was able to run out of CADs in my IB account on 11/15 so I sold $2K in USDs and bought Canadian dollars with the IB commission being US$2 for that exchange.
 |
| USD/CAD = 1.32298/US$2,000 Bought C$2,645.96 |
So I will keep IB to make foreign stock (common and preferred) and corporate bond purchases, but will wind down positions in U.S. securities that can be purchased commission free at Schwab and Fidelity where I also have free real time quotes, no hassles with downloads into Turbotax, free research, and far better presentation of account information.
2. Rearranged EAF: Eliminated in Schwab Account and Started Small Ball Buy Program in the Fidelity Account:
A. Sold 110 EAF at $13.48:
GrafTech International Ltd. - Home
Closing Price Yesterday: EAF $14.28 +$0.63 +4.62%
EAF | GrafTech International Ltd. Analyst Estimates (as of 11/15)
2019: $2.52
2020: $2.36
Profit Snapshot: $61.69 (100 share lot was purchased with a $4.99 commission)
Item # 2.D. Added 10 EAF at $11.08 (10/26/19 Post); Item # 1 Bought 100 EAF at $13.06 (10/2/19 Post)
This is my first round trip trade in EAF which is a new position for me. I will probably be trading it more given its highly volatile price action as reflected on 11/7/19 in response to its earnings report and shortly thereafter after the initial negative response transformed into a positive one, which allowed me to sell the 110 shares that had an average cost of $12.92 per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): When looking at these number, keep in mind the stock price.
"Sales volumes of GrafTech manufactured product decreased to 40 thousand metric tons (MT) from 42 thousand metric tons in the prior year period. The weighted average realized price of these graphite electrodes was $9,960 per metric ton."
Cash Flow From Operations: $226M
Debt: $2B
Cash: $381M
GrafTech Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results
GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) CEO David Rintoul on Q3 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
I did not agree with the stock price decline in response to this report, so I initiated a small ball buy program in my Fidelity account as discussed below.
B. Bought 25 EAF Day of Earnings Release (three installments on 11/7/19):
I decided to launch a small ball buy program in my Fidelity account since I did not agree with the negative reaction to the earnings report, but my confidence in having a different opinion was low. I have almost no knowledge about EAF's industry sector. My opinion was based primarily on the numbers.
Average Cost: $11.91
Closing Price Yesterday: EAF $14.28 +$0.63 +4.62%
EAF | GrafTech International Ltd. Analyst Estimates (as of 11/15)
2019: $2.52
2020: $2.36
Profit Snapshot: $61.69 (100 share lot was purchased with a $4.99 commission)
Item # 2.D. Added 10 EAF at $11.08 (10/26/19 Post); Item # 1 Bought 100 EAF at $13.06 (10/2/19 Post)
This is my first round trip trade in EAF which is a new position for me. I will probably be trading it more given its highly volatile price action as reflected on 11/7/19 in response to its earnings report and shortly thereafter after the initial negative response transformed into a positive one, which allowed me to sell the 110 shares that had an average cost of $12.92 per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): When looking at these number, keep in mind the stock price.
Cash Flow From Operations: $226M
Debt: $2B
Cash: $381M
GrafTech Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results
GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) CEO David Rintoul on Q3 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
I did not agree with the stock price decline in response to this report, so I initiated a small ball buy program in my Fidelity account as discussed below.
B. Bought 25 EAF Day of Earnings Release (three installments on 11/7/19):
 |
| Snapshot 11/11 Intra-day: 3 Separate Purchases |
Average Cost: $11.91
 |
| Snapshot Closing Price 11/19/19 |
3. Eliminations and Pares:
I am gradually reducing my stock allocation.
A. Pared DEA-Sold 10 at $22.39:
Quote: Easterly Government Properties Inc.
Closing Price Yesterday: DEA $22.96 +$0.07 +0.31%
SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot: $47.24 (11/6/19 sell)
Position Before Pare: Average Cost Per share at $16.95
Position After Pare: Average Cost Per Share at $16.62
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 4.A. Bought 10 DEA at $17.4 and 10 at $15.74-Used Commission Free Trades (1/9/19 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Items 1.A. and 1.B. Sold 10 DEA at $19.81 and Eliminated DEA in Schwab Account at $19.81 (8/24/19 Post); Sold 10 DEA at $21.44-Used Commission Free Trade (5/17/18 Post); Item 5. A. Sold 50 DEA at $21.59-Used Commission Free Trade (12/11/17 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually)
I am not anticipating much, if any, dividend growth which creates a negative vibe for me.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/12 (after pare)
Dividend Yield at $16.62 Average Total Cost = 6.26%
Dividend Reinvestment: No, I would not buy shares at the current price.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19):
As previously discussed, DEA is to be commended for providing a calculation for cash available for distribution ("CAD") which many REITs fail to do.
While CAD and FFO will be close to one another for triple net lease REITs, where routine maintenance costs are the responsibility of the tenant, there will generally be a wide variance between CAD and FFO where the owner has to make those capital expenditures which is generally the case for owners of apartments, office buildings and hotels for example.
In DEA's case, the quarterly FFO per share was reported at $.29, while the CAD number was lower at $.2548 per share. Note the CAD number is below the quarterly penny rate of $.26 per share. At a minimum, that indicates that a dividend increase is unlikely. And, since there is no cushion between the dividend penny rate and CAD per share, relatively minor adverse developments on rentals that are non-temporary may cause a dividend cut.
Guidance: FFO
FFO and CAD Calculations:
Easterly Government Properties Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results
The stock responded favorably to this report: DEA $22.37 +$0.40 +1.82% (11/6)
DEA Trading Profits to Date: $270.92 ($223.68 in prior trades)
Current Position: 21+ shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (an elimination is far more likely than an add)
B. Pared ING-Sold 50 at $11.75:
I sold my highest cost lot. Item # 2 Bought 50 ING at $10.49 (10/5/19 Post)
Closing Price Yesterday: ING $11.72 +$0.06 0.51%
Profit Snapshot: +$63.13
I kept the lot bought at $9.96. Item # 5 (10/11/19)
Quote: ING Groep N.V. ADR Overview
ING | ING Groep N.V. ADR Analyst Estimates
ING Before Pare: Average cost per share at $10.23
ING After Pare: Average cost per share at $9.96
I am gradually reducing my stock allocation.
A. Pared DEA-Sold 10 at $22.39:
Quote: Easterly Government Properties Inc.
Closing Price Yesterday: DEA $22.96 +$0.07 +0.31%
SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot: $47.24 (11/6/19 sell)
Position Before Pare: Average Cost Per share at $16.95
Position After Pare: Average Cost Per Share at $16.62
 |
| Snapshot Taken Intra-Day 11/6 |
Last Sell Discussions: Items 1.A. and 1.B. Sold 10 DEA at $19.81 and Eliminated DEA in Schwab Account at $19.81 (8/24/19 Post); Sold 10 DEA at $21.44-Used Commission Free Trade (5/17/18 Post); Item 5. A. Sold 50 DEA at $21.59-Used Commission Free Trade (12/11/17 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually)
I am not anticipating much, if any, dividend growth which creates a negative vibe for me.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/12 (after pare)
Dividend Yield at $16.62 Average Total Cost = 6.26%
Dividend Reinvestment: No, I would not buy shares at the current price.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19):
As previously discussed, DEA is to be commended for providing a calculation for cash available for distribution ("CAD") which many REITs fail to do.
While CAD and FFO will be close to one another for triple net lease REITs, where routine maintenance costs are the responsibility of the tenant, there will generally be a wide variance between CAD and FFO where the owner has to make those capital expenditures which is generally the case for owners of apartments, office buildings and hotels for example.
In DEA's case, the quarterly FFO per share was reported at $.29, while the CAD number was lower at $.2548 per share. Note the CAD number is below the quarterly penny rate of $.26 per share. At a minimum, that indicates that a dividend increase is unlikely. And, since there is no cushion between the dividend penny rate and CAD per share, relatively minor adverse developments on rentals that are non-temporary may cause a dividend cut.
Guidance: FFO
FFO and CAD Calculations:
Easterly Government Properties Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results
The stock responded favorably to this report: DEA $22.37 +$0.40 +1.82% (11/6)
DEA Trading Profits to Date: $270.92 ($223.68 in prior trades)
Current Position: 21+ shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (an elimination is far more likely than an add)
B. Pared ING-Sold 50 at $11.75:
I sold my highest cost lot. Item # 2 Bought 50 ING at $10.49 (10/5/19 Post)
Closing Price Yesterday: ING $11.72 +$0.06 0.51%
Profit Snapshot: +$63.13
I kept the lot bought at $9.96. Item # 5 (10/11/19)
Quote: ING Groep N.V. ADR Overview
ING | ING Groep N.V. ADR Analyst Estimates
ING Before Pare: Average cost per share at $10.23
ING After Pare: Average cost per share at $9.96
 |
| Snapshot Taken Intra-day 11/6 |
Current Position: 50 shares
Maximum Position: 200 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
C. Pared SU-Sold Highest Cost 10 Share Lot at $31.86:
Website: Suncor
Closing Price Yesterday: SU $31.43 -$0.40 -1.26%
Profit Snapshot: +$20.89
Average Cost Per Share Before Pare = $29.3
 |
| Snapshot 11/7 During Trading Day |
Last Discussed: Item # 2 Bought 30 SU at $29.78, 10 at $28.65, and 5 at $27.61 (8/17/19 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Positive earnings growth is a no show with integrated energy companies and SU's third quarter report was not an exception.
During the 3rd Quarter (all amounts in Canadian Dollars):
Net Earnings: $1.035 billion ($0.67 per common share), down from C$1.12
FFO $2.675 billion ($1.72 per common share), down from $1.94
Repaid C$572M in debt
Paid $650M in common share dividends
Repurchased 19.2M shares- 1.2% of the outstanding
Oil Sands Production: 670,000 barrels per day, up from 651,700
Refinery Utilization: 100%
Dividend Declaration: Suncor Energy declares dividend and announces increase to share repurchase program (quarterly rate at C$.42 per share)
Next Ex Dividend: 12/2/19
Purchase Restriction and Trading Rules: Small Ball (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; sell of highest cost lots will be considered when profitable)
Small ball rules are tightly structured for risk mitigation purposes.
Current Position: 35+ Shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividends
Lowest Cost Lot in Current Chain: $27.61
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2 Sold 50 SU at $40.95 (8/16/14 Post)-Item # 2 Bought 50 SU at $28.67 (12/29/11 Post)
4. Small Ball Adds:
A. Bought 10 CNP at $26.97; 10 at $26.7, 10 at $25.33 and 10 at $25.1:
Average Cost Per Share = $26.7
The stock experienced a significant waterfall type decline on the day of these two purchases.
Closing Price 11/14/19: CNP $26.69 -$1.40 -$4.98% with a day range of $26.59 to $28.28
Closing Price 11/19: CNP $25.34 +$0.18 +0.72%
During the 11/14 trading day, the only news that I could find was a Credit Suisse a $1 price target reduction to $31 with the analyst maintaining an outperform rating.
After the close, the CS analyst issued another report downgrading the stock to neutral and reducing the PT again, this time to $28.
I have access to CS analyst reports at Schwab and will discuss the two reports below.
The gist is that the Texas Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") issued a ruling that was more unfavorable to Centerpoint's Houston Electric subsidiary than the prior recommendation made by the ALJ (Administrative Law Judge) which was viewed as unfavorable.
Regulatory Research Associates rates the Commission at below average in regulatory support for utilities. (page 17)
This punitive rate decision is a new negative development.
More important for the long term, it indicates that this Commission is embarked on a punitive rate making process for Texas utilities.
All 3 commissioners were appointed by the republican governor Gregg Abbott so in this case the business friendly claim is only a deceptive mirage.
Needless to say, I am not clued into what is happening in real time at the Commission while sitting at a desk in Brentwood, TN.
The intra-day price chart simply told me that something had happened, as evidence by the first move down on 11/14, probably played by those with direct access in real time (in the commission hearing room) and then another decline as the news filtered down through secondary sources (e.g. Bloomberg terminals and similar real time data and news streams).
I suspected that there was an adverse rate decision but did not know. My first 10 share buy occurred after the second break was well under way with the second buy near the closing price at the end of the trading day.
 |
| 11/14/18 First Break at 12:14 EST/Second Break at 3:08 EST |
See generally, CenterPoint Energy's stock drops toward 17-month low after analyst downgrades, cuts price target - MarketWatch; CenterPoint Energy slammed with downgrades at four Wall Street firms - CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CNP) | Seeking Alpha
The final order will probably be issued at the next meeting on 12/13. The Commission merely indicated the main parameters at its 11/14 meeting.
Quote: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP)
CNP | CenterPoint Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates
SEC Filings
Website: Investor Relations | CenterPoint Energy, Inc.,
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 20 CNP at $27.72 and 10 at $27.39 (8/28/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2875 per share ($1.15 annually)
Last Ex Dividend (today): 11/20/19 (before purchases)
CenterPoint Energy declares regular common stock dividend of $0.2875
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at below $30
I set the option to dividend reinvestment after receiving the second quarter distribution on the 30 share lot.
Average Cost Per Share = $26.7
Dividend Yield at Total Average Cost = 4.31%
I suspect, but do not know, that the Commission's decision will probably result in no dividend growth for awhile.
Credit Suisse Analyst Report (11/14/19): The CS analyst issued two reports on 11/14.
The first was available to me before the closing bell. The analyst discussed a recent meeting with CNP's CEO and CFO to discuss the impacts of the ALJ's recommendation on Houston Electric's rate filing which was viewed as unfavorable as discussed in the 3rd quarter earnings conference call.
The CS analyst evaluated the information, plug some numbers using the ALJ's recommendation, and ended up lowering his price target by $1 to $31 while keeping the outperform rating. The ALJ's recommendation would lower the forecasted earnings and require more common stock to be sold.
During the day, the Commission made some kind of verbal outline of its decision without providing an order. Analysts from several brokerage firms viewed that outline to be even more unfavorable than the ALJ's recommendation and many used the word "punitive".
After the bell, I read another CS analyst report where the PT was lowered to $28 and the recommendation was reduced to neutral from overweight.
While I know something about electric utility rate making, my knowledge is about 40 years in the past. The numbers mentioned by the CS analyst were negative for CNP and other brokers quickly agreed with widespread price target reductions and downgrades.
The CS analyst reduced both the 2020 and 2021 E.P.S. estimate by 10 cents in response.
Other broker downgrades based on brief notations found at financial websites:
Wells Fargo: PT to $29 from $31, keeps overweight
Goldman Sachs: Removed from conviction buy, PT reduced $4 to $29
Morgan Stanley: Maintains equal weight, reduces PT to $27 from $31
UBS: PT to $32 from $34, keeps at buy
BAC/Merrill Lynch: Downgrades to neutral with a $27 PT
Guggenheim: PT to $29 from $32, downgrades to neutral
Mizuho: PT to $28 from $30.5, maintains buy
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Downgrades from buy to neutral
Evercore: PT to $28 from $32, maintains in-line
From the foregoing, I can fairly conclude that analysts view the rate decision as clearly unfavorable to CNP and requiring a downward revisions in both earnings and cash flow.
However, assuming the reduced price target ranges are reasonable, there is room for decent total returns at entry price levels near $25.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19):
For an electric and gas utility, this was an overall favorable report IMO.
CenterPoint Energy Reports Third Quarter 2019 Earnings of $0.47 Per Diluted Share; $0.53 Earnings Per Diluted Share on a Guidance Basis, Excluding Certain Impacts Associated With the Vectren Merger
Current Position in This Account: 70 Shares
Further purchases will be in 5 share lots.
Maximum Position This Account: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
10 Year Chart as of 11/14:
B. Bought 10 ICLN at $10.58:
Quote: ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: ICLN $10.69 +$0.02 0.19%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | ICLN
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. (10/11/19 Post)
I have nothing to add to my recent discussion.
Current Position: 55 Shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
5. Short Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy-Tennessee Municipal Bonds Likely to Be Called within 3 years:
A. Bought 5 City of Knoxville 3% Electric Revenue Bonds Maturing on 7/1/42:
I discussed in my last post buying a 3% City of Knoxville, TN Electric Revenue bond maturing on the same day.
This is a different bond that has a much earlier optional call date of 7/1/2021.
Based on a reasonable prediction about interest rates in July 2021, I view it as highly likely that this bond will redeemed at par value on 7/1/21. Consequently, I view this bond as a better alternative than treasuries, investment grade corporate bonds, or CDs maturing at around the same time due to the higher current yield, YTM and tax free status of the interest payments.
Bought at 99.957.
Total Cost with $10 Commission: 100.157
Current Tax Free Yield at Total Cost = 2.9846%
Yield to Worst (assumes redemption on 7/1/21) = 2.899% (see "yield to worst" number in the confirmation).
This bond and others that I have bought recently are being sold by individual investors in either 5 or 10 bond lots.
Optional Call: 7/1/21 at par with accrued and unpaid interest
Security: Electric Revenue
Credit Ratings:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI)
ReplyDelete$6.85 +0.57 (+9.08%)
As of 10:03AM EST.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GCI?p=GCI&.tsrc=fin-srch
New Media (NEWM) completed its acquisition Gannett yesterday. NEWM changed its name to Gannett and assumed its GCI symbol.
The rise today suggests that some of NEWM's weak price action was related to a merger arbitrage play or other short sellers covering.
++
The decline in Duke Energy (DUK) yesterday was due to a stock offering.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3520284-duke-energy-launches-25m-share-public-offering?mod=mw_quote_news
++
AT & T had a rough day yesterday that is carrying over into early morning trading today:
$37.14 -$0.86 (-2.26%)
As of 10:13AM EST
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T?p=T
The decline yesterday coincided with a sell recommendation by MoffettNathanson with a $30PT:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wireless-isnt-at-ts-real-problem-moffett-nathanson-223207161.html
GrafTech International Ltd (EAF)
ReplyDelete$14.05 -$0.23 -1.61%
DAY RANGE $14.08 - $14.84
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/eaf
I discussed this stock in Items 2.A and 2.B.
Since I first bought a lot in EAF, it has been a bungee jumper as illustrated by the intra-day range today and over the past several weeks. The range has been between $11 to $15.
Historical:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EAF/history?p=EAF
There is no news to account for the wild swing today other than what I would characterize as normal market dynamics for this stock.
RBC cut its price target $1 to $15 on 11/14 and kept its outperform rating. The stock moved up after that PT cut.
I haven't had a chance to catch up... but wanted to post about today's trade events. Sure enough it wasn't a deal yet... and the market was sure it would be.
ReplyDeleteI wasn't able to watch today's testimony. What I've heard about it was ... that it went well. The GOP witnesses were very helpful to the majority case.
I wonder how long the pullback over the trade deal will last?
Land: The Stocks Jocks barely reacted to a Reuters report yesterday that the "Phase 1" trade deal may not happen this year. As I recall, the DJIA instantly loss over 200 points but that was halved quickly.
DeleteI view several dynamics at work here that take precedence over news flashes about trade:
(1) the Stock Jocks believe that there will be a trade deal, notwithstanding these little bumps along the path;
(2) the economy is still producing growth and jobs, with low interest rate and inflation likely to continue for a long time;
(3) bonds are not competitive alternatives to stocks for most investors and have recently become even less desirable as sources for income;
(4) the Stock Jocks are convinced that the lowering of the federal funds rate will cure what ails the economy;
(5) So far the trade wars have negatively impacted limited sectors of the U.S. economy.
As to the China trade deal, I would not rely on any representations made by Trump or anyone in his administration about the current status. The Stock Jocks will respond positively to claims that progress is being made with a deal imminent at any moment, notwithstanding the fact that positive spin has been forthcoming for over a year that has not resulted in anything yet.
Trump delayed an important tariff increase for the U.S. consumer economy until 12/15.
If he levies those next month, then the combined effect of those new tariffs and the tariffs imposed in September will start to have a significant negative impact in 2020, gradually building as the year progresses.
++
As to the impeachment hearings, all of the republican House members are defending the President and that is not likely to change. The case that Trump conditioned military aid on the Ukraine announcing an investigation of the Bidens is already proven using a guilt beyond a reasonable doubt standard. However, that will not dissuade republicans from supporting Trump or believing he did nothing wrong. And for most GOP tribe members, they will not accept the proof that he demanded a quid pro quo.
Donald knows his base. Yesterday, he held in his hand handwritten notes that claimed Sondland had testified there was no quid pro quo (which is false) and Donald wanted nothing from Zelensky. He knows that those claims will work on the Trumpsters because he did not disclose the context. The conversation occurred on 9/9/19, when everything had blown up in Donald's face and Congress had forced him to release the military aid. So he calls up Sondland and tells him no quid pro quo.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-quotes-sondland-quoting-him-i-want-nothing-i-want-no-quid-pro-quo/
Hi!
ReplyDeleteYou often say that Republicans tend to support Trump through thick and thin. If so, what is the purpose of the impeachment hearings? It doesn't look like the Democrats could even approach a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict on a partisan vote?
David: Democrats overwhelmingly believe that Donald has committed acts worthy of impeachment. Those acts go beyond the Ukraine matter.
ReplyDeleteBefore the whistleblower’s complaint lit the fuse, Pelosi was not in favor of initiating impeachment proceedings unless conviction in the Senate was likely.
I personally view that approach as the best one, but no longer feasible politically for the Democrats after it became clear that Trump abused his presidential power.
In the most recent monthly Gallup poll publish on 11/14, Trump’s approval rating rose to 43% from 39% on 10/13.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?g_source=link_newsv9&g_campaign=item_201617&g_medium=copy
So far, Trump has not lost republican support due to matters relating to the impeachment hearing; and it is unlikely that anything will cause republicans to turn on him as many did with Nixon.
Consequently, I am anticipating zero to 5 republican Senate and House members combined to vote for impeachment.
Some republicans will become more vulnerable no matter how they vote on impeachment. Voting no will cost them independent votes and voting yes will cause them to lose the Trumpster vote. There are about 5 GOP Senators who are up for reelection in 2020 who are in that pickle and a few House members as well.
Democrats are more energized now than at anytime in my memory and that is due to Donald. Democrat voters are usually more lethargic about voting than republican voters, so it is never advisable for republicans to do so much to change that natural state.
Without strong republican support for impeachment, a trial in the senate is a totally futile gesture and will only enhance the partisan divide that Donald has stoked throughout his presidency.
It is important to hold hearings, take testimony and acquire documents, on a variety of matters that relate to Donald’s conduct as President. The purpose would not be for impeachment but to inform voters before the November 2020 election.
Both PEO and ADX, two CEFs that I discuss from time to time, will go ex dividend tomorrow for their year end distributions. I have sold out of ADX but still have a position in PEO
ReplyDeleteThe year end distributions will consist mainly of capital gains.
ADX: $1.27 per share of which $1.18 consists of long term capital gains
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adams-diversified-equity-fund-declares-year-end-distribution-exceeds-its-annual-6-minimum-distribution-rate-commitment-300958698.html
PEO will have a higher dividend sourced component than ADX
The PEO year end distribution will be $.8 per share:
$0.48 per share from 2019 net investment income; and
$0.32 per share from net capital gains realized during 2019, comprised all of long-term gain.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adams-natural-resources-fund-declares-year-end-distribution-300958696.html
ADX closed yesterday at a 11% discount to its net asset value which is narrower than its historical averages.
1 Year -13.24%
3 Year -14.33%
5 Year -14.64%
Click "Pricing Information" tab:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/ADX
I have been trading ADX starting around 1984. Both CEFs started a few months before the October 1929 crash, and survived that one.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
ReplyDelete$58.14 +$0.58 +1.01%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/td
I own a small position.
Item # 4. Bought 30 TD at $54.28-Used Commission Free Trade:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_10.html
TD is also a major component of the iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF (CA:FIE), and I own 600 shares of that one.
Last Discussed FIE:
1. Added 100 FIE:CA at C$6.74 (C$1 IB Commission):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/09/observations-and-sample-of-recent_21.html
The TD share price rise today was probably due to a report that Schwab was in negotiations to acquire TD Ameritrade.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/charles-schwab-in-talks-to-buy-td-ameritrade-a-deal-could-be-announced-as-early-as-today-source-says.html
TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.
$48.38 +$7.00 +16.92%
At Close
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amtd
I would like to see Toronto Dominion monetize its large AMTD position.
When Schwab reduced its commission for U.S. online stock and ETF trades to zero, TD Ameritrade followed and Toronto Dominion stock took a mild hit in response.
As I recall, TD owns about 43% of TD Ameritrade.
Both PFLT and PNNT reported their third quarters results and my reaction to both was negative. I have lottery ticket positions in both stocks. The external managers continue to incinerate assets as reflected in their respective net asset values per share.
ReplyDeletePNNT Net Asset Values
9/30/18: $9.10
9/30/19: $8.68
PFLT Net Asset Value Per Share
9/30/18 $13.82
9/30/19: $12.97
The net investment income for PFLT did barely cover the dividend which was not the case with PNNT.
PNNT Press Release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/21/1951101/0/en/PennantPark-Investment-Corporation-Announces-Financial-Results-for-the-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-Ended-September-30-2019.html
PFLT Press Release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/20/1950386/0/en/PennantPark-Floating-Rate-Capital-Ltd-Announces-Financial-Results-for-the-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-Ended-September-30-2019.html
Both PNNT and PFLT had made substantial loans to Hollander. I previously mentioned my substantial skepticism about the marks assigned to first lien debt owned by Hollander Sleep Products that had filed for bankruptcy.
Before I read the press releases, I checked the 10-K filings for both BDCs (F/Y ends 9/30/19) and could not find the Hollander loans.
I then read the PFLT earnings conference call and noted that the external manager admitted that the loan had been market down to zero.
Page 5
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4308343-pennantpark-floating-rate-capital-pflt-ceo-arthur-penn-q4-2019-results-earnings-call?page=5
This provides a lesson on (1) the reliability of marks and (2) first lien loans made by BDCs can go to a zero mark.
As of 3/31/19, PFLT valued the $10,952,132 loan to Hollander, then on non-accrual, at $9,418,834.
Page 8
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1504619/000156459019017192/pflt-10q_20190331.htm
I have now changed my classification of PNNT from borderline deservedly hated to deservedly hated.
Given the recent asset incineration at PFLT, my classification is now at borderline deservedly hated.
Last Discussed at Item # 1.B. Added 30 PFLT at $11.3:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_19.html
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/11/observations-and-sample-of-recent_23.html