Economy:
The ISM June 2020 service index was reported at 57.1, up from 45.4 in May. The new orders component rose to 61.6 from 41.9. The employment component increased to 43.1 from 31.8. Any number below 50 indicates contraction. This diffusion indicates measures "breath of improvement-not depth". Activity Surges in Services Sector. Employment, However, Continues to Contract. - Barron's (subscription publication)
Weekly jobless claims total 1.314 million, vs 1.39 million estimate The new unemployment insurance claims was for the week ending 7/4. New initial unemployment claims have exceeded 1 million per week for 16 straight weeks. 32.9 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits. U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; but a record 32.9 million on unemployment benefits - Reuters
Soaring demand for federal jobless benefits points to fresh fissures in the U.S. economy - MarketWatch ("After a small decline in mid-May, applications for benefits filed through the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program have soared 53% to 14.4 million as of June 20 from 9.37 million a month earlier. Federal continuing claims are reported with a two-week lag." Those are claims made under a Cares Act provision that will soon)
There is a problem reconciling the continuing unemployment claims with the BLS unemployment number. As noted above, 32.9 million people are receiving unemployment which is more than the double the number of people counted as unemployed by BLS in its last employment report. The Stock Jocks rejoiced at that report and have been ignoring the inconsistent data of new initial unemployment and continuing claims.
Senate Republicans cool to 2nd round of stimulus checks, direct deposits The first round of stimulus checks cost the government $293B according to the CBO. Since the entire amount was funded from borrowings, the long term cost will be much higher.
McConnell Expects New Virus Relief Bill by End of Month He is insisting that the bill include Covid-19 liability protections for businesses and be no more than $1T compared to the Democrats $3T proposal. It is hard to understand why he is optimistic given the GOP's intransigence on matters important to the Democrats which includes more aid to state and local governments. Democrats are generally opposed to a broad liability protection for businesses believing correctly that businesses will be less likely to protect customers and employees.
GOP eyes narrowing second round of $1,200 stimulus payments Republican senators are talking about limiting the next round of stimulus checks to those with adjusted gross incomes less than $40K, which would eliminate a substantial number of middle income households.
Shiller: Coronavirus fear factor may weigh on nation for years
U.S. reports record single-day spike of 63,200 new coronavirus cases last Thursday ("Cases were growing, on average, by at least 5% in 36 states and the District of Columbia as of Thursday" as Donald claimed the U.S. was in a "good place")
Government debt is skyrocketing across the world. Here are their options, according to Barclays - MarketWatch
U.S. reports record single-day spike of 63,200 new coronavirus cases last Thursday ("Cases were growing, on average, by at least 5% in 36 states and the District of Columbia as of Thursday" as Donald claimed the U.S. was in a "good place")
Government debt is skyrocketing across the world. Here are their options, according to Barclays - MarketWatch
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Markets and Market Commentary:
As of 7/10/20, the S & P 500 P/E was 27.95 based on trailing 12 month GAAP earnings. Using Non-GAAP estimated earnings for the next 12 months, the P/E was 25.14. P/E & Yields Scott Black in this week's Barron's claims the SPX non-GAAP E.P.S. 2020 estimate was 109.5 and at 161.28 for 2021. Best Stocks to Buy and Investment Ideas for the Rest of 2020, According to Barron’s Midyear Roundtable - Barron's (subscription publication) The 2021 non-GAAP earnings estimate is the kind of delusional thinking that is commonplace now among the Stock Jocks.
This is a snapshot of the estimated GAAP and NON-GAAP S & P 500 earnings as of 7/8/20.
Robert Shiller explains the pandemic stock market and why it’s decoupled from the economy - MarketWatch The stock market has decoupled from the economy, pretending at current index levels that the pandemic really never existed and consequently will not have any negative longer term consequences. Shiller notes that the wild swings this year are "driven largely by investors’ assessments of other investors’ evolving reaction to the news, rather than the news itself." This is the thundering herd analogy. Investors look at how other investors are reacting and then follow the herd.
For U.S. stocks, the initial response to the pandemic was to take stocks higher in January and for most of February. This suggested that investors had no historic template and insufficient scientific knowledge to assess potential dire economic outcomes.
The second herd response was to take the S & P 5o0 down 34% in March.
The herd response, which started in April, has reached the point where the January and early February response is back in vogue. It is not possible to reconcile this response with known information about the pandemic in the U.S.
The rally since March is based on three factors.
First, there is a herd consensus opinion that the economy will return to normal soon aided and abetted by the Fed's monetary policy and enormous amounts of fiscal stimulus that is running out. This scenario ignores the likely long term economic impacts from the pandemic even if the economy stages a robust recovery in the second half which is open to reasonable doubt now.
Second, there is no where to go with the proceeds from stock sales, a point that I have been making, including in a comment published yesterday.
The fact that a real return after taxes is not possible with credit risk free instruments does not make current stock valuations reasonable. Interest rates near zero will not generate consumer demand with the pandemic raging and will substantially reduce household disposable income generated by credit risk free savings, thereby reducing funds available to fund consumer spending.
The third factor is a herd consensus that inflation and interest rates will remain far below average historical levels for decades. That forecast is embodied in the real yield (-.22%) and current break-even inflation rate (1.11%) for the 30 year TIP. The 1.1% break-even inflation rate for the 30 year TIP is the market's current prediction for the annual average U.S. CPI rate for the next 30 years. Since 1914, the annual average is over 3%.
Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates:
Fitch downgraded record number of sovereign ratings due to coronavirus
As of 7/10/20, the S & P 500 P/E was 27.95 based on trailing 12 month GAAP earnings. Using Non-GAAP estimated earnings for the next 12 months, the P/E was 25.14. P/E & Yields Scott Black in this week's Barron's claims the SPX non-GAAP E.P.S. 2020 estimate was 109.5 and at 161.28 for 2021. Best Stocks to Buy and Investment Ideas for the Rest of 2020, According to Barron’s Midyear Roundtable - Barron's (subscription publication) The 2021 non-GAAP earnings estimate is the kind of delusional thinking that is commonplace now among the Stock Jocks.
This is a snapshot of the estimated GAAP and NON-GAAP S & P 500 earnings as of 7/8/20.
For U.S. stocks, the initial response to the pandemic was to take stocks higher in January and for most of February. This suggested that investors had no historic template and insufficient scientific knowledge to assess potential dire economic outcomes.
The second herd response was to take the S & P 5o0 down 34% in March.
The herd response, which started in April, has reached the point where the January and early February response is back in vogue. It is not possible to reconcile this response with known information about the pandemic in the U.S.
The rally since March is based on three factors.
First, there is a herd consensus opinion that the economy will return to normal soon aided and abetted by the Fed's monetary policy and enormous amounts of fiscal stimulus that is running out. This scenario ignores the likely long term economic impacts from the pandemic even if the economy stages a robust recovery in the second half which is open to reasonable doubt now.
Second, there is no where to go with the proceeds from stock sales, a point that I have been making, including in a comment published yesterday.
The fact that a real return after taxes is not possible with credit risk free instruments does not make current stock valuations reasonable. Interest rates near zero will not generate consumer demand with the pandemic raging and will substantially reduce household disposable income generated by credit risk free savings, thereby reducing funds available to fund consumer spending.
The third factor is a herd consensus that inflation and interest rates will remain far below average historical levels for decades. That forecast is embodied in the real yield (-.22%) and current break-even inflation rate (1.11%) for the 30 year TIP. The 1.1% break-even inflation rate for the 30 year TIP is the market's current prediction for the annual average U.S. CPI rate for the next 30 years. Since 1914, the annual average is over 3%.
Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates:
Opinion | The Mystery of High Stock Prices - The New York Times In this opinion column written by Steven Rattner, he attributes the most "significant driver" for the recent stock market rise to FED monetary policy rather than fundamentals. The FED has driven down interest rates throughout the maturity spectrum, making fixed income investments unattractive to investors. Rattner points out that the dividend yield for the S & P 500 index, even after the huge rally, is higher than a AA rated corporate bonds and far more than the .7% yield for the 10 year treasury note.
JP Morgan joins the list of Wall Street banks calling for the demise of 60/40 portfolio, despite its success this year - MarketWatch
S&P 500 Sends Bullish Technical Signal With Golden Cross
In a research note published last week, JP Morgan opined that the dividend yield of U.S. REIT ETFs appear to be sustainable at current levels. After 20% Plunge, REIT Dividends Appear to Have Bottomed Out. Here Are 9 JPMorgan Analysts Like.-Barron's Overall, U.S. REIT dividends have plunged about 20% since the onset of the pandemic, with hotel REITs down the most at 99%. JPM's REIT recommendations for income investors include BDN, HTA, MPW (ROTH IRA only), STAG, and WPC which I currently own. The other recommendations are FCPT, KW, VER and WELL. I have owned WELL in the past.
After that 41% ‘moonshot’ for stocks, here’s what one strategist is telling investors to do next - MarketWatch
Sell Exxon, buy Chevron and Conoco ahead of earnings, Goldman says (NYSE:CVX) | Seeking Alpha
Warren Buffett's Berkshire buys Dominion Energy natural gas assets in $10 billion deal
S&P 500 Sends Bullish Technical Signal With Golden Cross
In a research note published last week, JP Morgan opined that the dividend yield of U.S. REIT ETFs appear to be sustainable at current levels. After 20% Plunge, REIT Dividends Appear to Have Bottomed Out. Here Are 9 JPMorgan Analysts Like.-Barron's Overall, U.S. REIT dividends have plunged about 20% since the onset of the pandemic, with hotel REITs down the most at 99%. JPM's REIT recommendations for income investors include BDN, HTA, MPW (ROTH IRA only), STAG, and WPC which I currently own. The other recommendations are FCPT, KW, VER and WELL. I have owned WELL in the past.
After that 41% ‘moonshot’ for stocks, here’s what one strategist is telling investors to do next - MarketWatch
Sell Exxon, buy Chevron and Conoco ahead of earnings, Goldman says (NYSE:CVX) | Seeking Alpha
Warren Buffett's Berkshire buys Dominion Energy natural gas assets in $10 billion deal
Duke Energy to take up to $2.5B charge on Atlantic Coast Pipeline (NYSE:DUK) | Seeking Alpha Duke (DUK) and Dominion (D) cancelled the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project due to regulatory delays.
Duke also lowered its earnings estimates: SEC Filing
"On February 13, 2020, Duke Energy announced a 2020 EPS target of $5.25 and guidance range of $5.05 to $5.45, which included projected contributions from the Project of approximately $0.20 of EPS in 2020. Through June 30, 2020, approximately $0.07 of EPS related to its share of the Project allowance for funds used during construction (“AFUDC”) has been recorded by Duke Energy, but no additional AFUDC will be recorded during the remainder of 2020 related to the Project. Earnings contributions from the Project recognized by Duke Energy were projected to grow to $0.30 to $0.35 EPS in 2021.
Based on the cessation of AFUDC on the Project and the results disclosed during our May 12, 2020 earnings review and business update, the Company’s results for 2020 are trending to the low end of the EPS guidance range of $5.05 to $5.45 for 2020. Historically, the third quarter of the calendar year is the most impactful to Duke Energy’s earnings. Further, the Company continues to monitor the economic impact resulting from COVID-19 and to pursue cost mitigation measures in addition to those disclosed on May 12."
The stock market is poised for a 40% drop, warns economist A. Gary Shilling who says the current climate feels a lot like 1929 - MarketWatch I would note that the S & P declined about 34% earlier this year, so a down 40% prediction is not outlandish or unlikely to occur. I would classify Shilling as a stock perma bear. If an investor can not handle 40% stock market plunges, then they either need to refrain from staying in the market over long periods (or not all) or learn to deal with those plunges since they will happen several times during the course of a lifetime.
Walgreens Boots EPS misses by $0.39, cutting jobs, suspending buybacks (NASDAQ:WBA) | Seeking Alpha
United braces 36,000 employees for job cuts as pandemic roils travel demand
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reports Q1 2020 loss, 200 store closures
Harley-Davidson’s ‘Rewire’ plan starts with 700 jobs cuts, ousted CFO | TechCrunch
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Trump:
Donald's Tax Returns:
Poor Donald. Everyone is out to get him, including the two Supreme Court justices that he appointed. Trump rages at Supreme Court over tax records case, claims 'political prosecution' Donald's tweets, quoted in that article, prove that he is moving deeper into an unhinged and highly volatile state of mind and is in a full meltdown mode.
19-635 Trump v. Vance (07/09/2020) Barr's DOJ supported Trump's I am King argument with an amicus brief.
A NYC grand jury, convened by the Manhattan District Attorney, Cyrus Vance Jr., had served a subpoena on Mazars USA, Trump's accountants, demanding the production of Donald's personal and business financial records including his tax returns.
Donald filed a motion to squash the subpoena that was not issued to him claiming that he was absolutely immune from investigation as President.
Donald's legal argument was the President can not be investigated while he is President.
Chief Justice Roberts, writing for the 7 to 2 majority rejected this effort to extend the Imperial Presidency doctrine: “No citizen, not even the president, is categorically above the common duty to produce evidence when called upon in a criminal proceeding.”
No true conservative would support Donald's position.
The criminal investigation into Donald's tax returns started, as I recall, with this comprehensive NYT article: Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father - The New York Times; 11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth - The New York Times If the factual information set out in that article is true, Donald has a serious tax fraud problem, which he denies of course. I am not very familiar with the federal or NY tax fraud statute of limitations. I did find this article discussing NY state and local income taxes that claims there is no limitations period in NY for civil penalties: New York could levy hefty penalties if Trump tax fraud is proven There is a limitations period for criminal prosecutions.
Someone had given the NYT Donald's internal tax records. Mary Trump has now admitted to being that source.
It should surprise no one to learn that Donald is a cheat. Fraud permeates his being and defines his core.
Donald will be able to delay production for awhile by objecting to the scope of the subpoena, but ultimately most, if not all of the requested documents will have to be turned over to the NYC grand jury. I seriously doubt that Donald will be able to withstand that kind of scrutiny which is why he did not produce returns prior to or after the election as other candidates for President have done in the past.
Obstructing investigations has worked for Donald. His tax returns and related documents will not see the light of day before the election.
Given the NYT investigation, cited above, it would have been negligent and a dereliction of duty for the NYC DA to do nothing. Also, Trump's hush money payments to Stormy Daniels and others may raise some tax issues as well in need of further investigation, particularly if those payments were deducted from income to reduce the state income tax obligation.
Trump on Releasing His Tax Returns: From ‘Absolutely’ to ‘Political Prosecution’ - The New York Times
Trump and School Reopenings:
Don the Authoritarian threatened to withhold federal funds for any school district that did not reopen in person classes this fall. Trump threatens to cut school funding, slams CDC reopening guidelines Donald implied that the Democrats want to keep schools closed just to hurt him politically. It is all about the Donald.
After Doctor Don criticized as too stringent the CDC's guidelines for school reopenings, the CDC Director Robert Redfield initially expressed the intent to revise the existing guidelines to make them satisfactory to Doctor Don who is only interested in protecting the health of others and who would sacrifice his reelection to save the lives of children. Those words are dripping with sarcasm of course.
Trump the victim: President complains in private about the pandemic hurting himself - The Washington Post (7/10/20)
Donald made a false comparison when relying on Europe's efforts to open schools. Europe is not comparable to the U.S. since the pandemic is currently under control in the EU, whereas it is flourishing and spreading rapidly in the U.S. due to incompetent leadership and fervent opposition among many republicans to socially distance and to wear masks.
I suspect the CDC Director received some push back from CDC health professionals and backtracked a little. CDC director says agency won't revise school reopening guidelines despite WH push Redfield now claims that the CDC will not revise the guidelines, but will provide "additional reference documents to aid basically communities in trying to open K-through-12s." Redfield argued that those additional reference document will not be "a revision of the guidelines; it's just to provide additional information to help schools be able to use the guidance we put forward."
The unrevised guidelines include keeping the windows open, spacing desks six feet apart "when feasible", wearing masks where feasible and teaching children about the importance of hand washing. Considerations for Schools | CDC (the May 19, 2020 version which has not been taken down yet in response to Doctor Don's criticisms.)
We will find out soon enough how susceptible children are to infections; the seriousness of the disease when infected; and their ability to transmit an infection to teachers, school staff, their parents and others outside of the school setting
No conclusions IMO can be drawn now based on what is known.
Schools were closed early in the U.S. pandemic.
It is certain now that neither Donald nor Mike Pence will accept any blame in the event children start dying in large numbers during the fall and winter. Donald will never accept responsibility for the consequences of his actions or words.
Missouri sleepaway camp closes after 82 kids, staff get coronavirus
A summer camp in Missouri and another in Arkansas close due to Covid-19 outbreaks
BREC closing Independence Park Recreation Center after two summer camp kids test positive for COVID-19
Coronavirus may spread from mother to baby in utero - Los Angeles Times
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) Claims We Do NOT Know If Kids Can Get And Transmit COVID-19 (Cornyn: “We still don’t know whether children can get it and transmit it to others")
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Trump and the White Nationalism of the GOP:
Donald's Tax Returns:
Poor Donald. Everyone is out to get him, including the two Supreme Court justices that he appointed. Trump rages at Supreme Court over tax records case, claims 'political prosecution' Donald's tweets, quoted in that article, prove that he is moving deeper into an unhinged and highly volatile state of mind and is in a full meltdown mode.
19-635 Trump v. Vance (07/09/2020) Barr's DOJ supported Trump's I am King argument with an amicus brief.
A NYC grand jury, convened by the Manhattan District Attorney, Cyrus Vance Jr., had served a subpoena on Mazars USA, Trump's accountants, demanding the production of Donald's personal and business financial records including his tax returns.
Donald filed a motion to squash the subpoena that was not issued to him claiming that he was absolutely immune from investigation as President.
Donald's legal argument was the President can not be investigated while he is President.
Chief Justice Roberts, writing for the 7 to 2 majority rejected this effort to extend the Imperial Presidency doctrine: “No citizen, not even the president, is categorically above the common duty to produce evidence when called upon in a criminal proceeding.”
The criminal investigation into Donald's tax returns started, as I recall, with this comprehensive NYT article: Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father - The New York Times; 11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth - The New York Times If the factual information set out in that article is true, Donald has a serious tax fraud problem, which he denies of course. I am not very familiar with the federal or NY tax fraud statute of limitations. I did find this article discussing NY state and local income taxes that claims there is no limitations period in NY for civil penalties: New York could levy hefty penalties if Trump tax fraud is proven There is a limitations period for criminal prosecutions.
Someone had given the NYT Donald's internal tax records. Mary Trump has now admitted to being that source.
It should surprise no one to learn that Donald is a cheat. Fraud permeates his being and defines his core.
Donald will be able to delay production for awhile by objecting to the scope of the subpoena, but ultimately most, if not all of the requested documents will have to be turned over to the NYC grand jury. I seriously doubt that Donald will be able to withstand that kind of scrutiny which is why he did not produce returns prior to or after the election as other candidates for President have done in the past.
Obstructing investigations has worked for Donald. His tax returns and related documents will not see the light of day before the election.
Given the NYT investigation, cited above, it would have been negligent and a dereliction of duty for the NYC DA to do nothing. Also, Trump's hush money payments to Stormy Daniels and others may raise some tax issues as well in need of further investigation, particularly if those payments were deducted from income to reduce the state income tax obligation.
Trump on Releasing His Tax Returns: From ‘Absolutely’ to ‘Political Prosecution’ - The New York Times
Trump and School Reopenings:
Don the Authoritarian threatened to withhold federal funds for any school district that did not reopen in person classes this fall. Trump threatens to cut school funding, slams CDC reopening guidelines Donald implied that the Democrats want to keep schools closed just to hurt him politically. It is all about the Donald.
After Doctor Don criticized as too stringent the CDC's guidelines for school reopenings, the CDC Director Robert Redfield initially expressed the intent to revise the existing guidelines to make them satisfactory to Doctor Don who is only interested in protecting the health of others and who would sacrifice his reelection to save the lives of children. Those words are dripping with sarcasm of course.
Trump the victim: President complains in private about the pandemic hurting himself - The Washington Post (7/10/20)
Donald made a false comparison when relying on Europe's efforts to open schools. Europe is not comparable to the U.S. since the pandemic is currently under control in the EU, whereas it is flourishing and spreading rapidly in the U.S. due to incompetent leadership and fervent opposition among many republicans to socially distance and to wear masks.
I suspect the CDC Director received some push back from CDC health professionals and backtracked a little. CDC director says agency won't revise school reopening guidelines despite WH push Redfield now claims that the CDC will not revise the guidelines, but will provide "additional reference documents to aid basically communities in trying to open K-through-12s." Redfield argued that those additional reference document will not be "a revision of the guidelines; it's just to provide additional information to help schools be able to use the guidance we put forward."
The unrevised guidelines include keeping the windows open, spacing desks six feet apart "when feasible", wearing masks where feasible and teaching children about the importance of hand washing. Considerations for Schools | CDC (the May 19, 2020 version which has not been taken down yet in response to Doctor Don's criticisms.)
We will find out soon enough how susceptible children are to infections; the seriousness of the disease when infected; and their ability to transmit an infection to teachers, school staff, their parents and others outside of the school setting
No conclusions IMO can be drawn now based on what is known.
Schools were closed early in the U.S. pandemic.
It is certain now that neither Donald nor Mike Pence will accept any blame in the event children start dying in large numbers during the fall and winter. Donald will never accept responsibility for the consequences of his actions or words.
Missouri sleepaway camp closes after 82 kids, staff get coronavirus
A summer camp in Missouri and another in Arkansas close due to Covid-19 outbreaks
BREC closing Independence Park Recreation Center after two summer camp kids test positive for COVID-19
Coronavirus may spread from mother to baby in utero - Los Angeles Times
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) Claims We Do NOT Know If Kids Can Get And Transmit COVID-19 (Cornyn: “We still don’t know whether children can get it and transmit it to others")
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Trump and the White Nationalism of the GOP:
Trump vows to veto $740 billion defense bill if it means renaming Confederate-named military bases
Trump rips Nascar for banning Confederate flag-MarketWatch;Trump targets Bubba Wallace while criticizing NASCAR ban on Confederate flag - CBS News This is to be expected from Donald. And he obviously believes that the republican base supports his embrace of the confederate flag.
{Donald lied when he claimed in this tweet Nascar TV ratings were the lowest "EVER" after banning the confederate flag from racing events. TV ratings were up 8% since the confederate flag ban. Trump's controversial tweet on Bubba Wallace, NASCAR's Confederate flag ban was clearly wrong on TV ratings As to Donald's demand that Bubba Wallace, the only black Nascar driver apologize, Wallace was not the person who found a noose in his stall and did not request an investigation. President Donald Trump calls out Bubba Wallace, NASCAR in tweet. Anderson Cooper opined that Trump's remarks were clearly racist. CNN's Anderson Cooper: Trump's Bubba Wallace tweet was 'racist, just plain and simple' | TheHill}
At Mt. Rushmore and the White House, Trump Updates ‘American Carnage’ Message for 2020
Trump Defends Confederate Flag in Latest Race-Based Appeal to White Voters - The New York Times
Donald fetish for the confederacy may energize voters in several southern states (e.g. Tennessee) that he would carry by just using an occasional dog whistles on race rather than shouting through a bullhorn. Donald already has the confederate flag waving voters.
A desperate Trump bets on racism in 2020 election
Opinion | Let’s not mince words. Trump is racist. - The Washington Post
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Mary Trump: Donald is a Bad Person-Who Could Have Known:
Donald has no discernible positive personality traits and an array of highly undesirable ones.
Mary Trump: Tell-all book depicts president as inept, habitual liar; Mary Trump’s Book Accuses the President of Embracing ‘Cheating as a Way of Life’ - The New York Times While 81% of republicans view Donald as honest, it is obvious to everyone else that Donald lies all the time about almost everything. It would be difficult, probably impossible, to find anyone who is more dishonest. Donald enjoys lying and manipulating people with demonstrably false statements and narratives. 81% of republicans view him as honest. National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 - Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Points | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (Question # 11). Ignore them. Do not bother to engage them in a fact based conversation about issues. They are hopeless.
Review of ‘Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World’s Most Dangerous Man’ by Mary L. Trump - The Washington Post
Mary Trump, who is a clinical psychologist, claims that Donald checks all the boxes for malignant narcissism. I have been making that same claim for years.
It is an obvious diagnosis that anyone can make.
Malignant narcissism is a combination of the narcissistic personality disorder, sociopathy, paranoia and sadism (pleasure in harming others which does not have to physical). Malignant Narcissism: Does the President Have It? An Update | Psychology Today; How to Spot a Narcissistic Sociopath
Mary Trump suggests that Donald may have a learning disability that interferes with his ability to process information. Psychological disorders and family squabbles: 9 details from the book by Donald Trump’s niece - POLITICO
That may be so, and is common among Trumpsters as well.
Donald clearly has an aversion to learning, reading and listening to the opinion of experts. Trump says his 'gut' is more reliable than everyone else's 'brains'; Trump Follows His Gut - The Atlantic; Opinion | Does Trump’s great gut mean a tiny brain? - The Washington Post
When asked, for example, whether he was preparing for the trade negotiations with China, Trump responded as follows: “I know it better than anybody knows it, and my gut has always been right.”
Or, when he was asked about the FED's interest rate policy, he replied: "I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”
Why People Follow a Trump (or a Hitler): Malignant Narcissism & Simplicity - FRANK YEOMANS - YouTube; Narcissism Interventions: Why They Fail (w/ Trump Example) - FRANK YEOMANS - YouTube He makes a good point in the second video that intervention will not work; and the political system needs to contain the malignant narcissist rather than enabling him. So far republicans have done everything possible to protect, enable and nurture the malignant narcissist who is currently the President of the U.S. What's more, they see nothing wrong with doing so.
Frank Yeomans, MD, PhD, Psychiatrist, Psychotherapist, Transference Focused Pyschotherapy, Borderline, Narcissism Specialties
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Donald's Holds Mass Infection Events Where He Inflames Cultural Divisions and Supports White Supremacy with a Bullhorn:
Tulsa sees Covid-19 surge in the wake of Trump's June rally; Trump rally likely contributed to surge in COVID-19 cases, Tulsa health official says - ABC News
Donald held another Mass Infection Event at Mount Rushmore last Friday. Social distancing was banished at this political rally and almost no one wore a mask, following Donald's example. Masks optional, no social distancing on agenda for Trump fireworks event at Mount Rushmore - MarketWatch I counted four people wearing masks using a photo available at Reuters.
Trump Uses Mount Rushmore Speech to Deliver Divisive Culture War Message For those willing to risk infection for themselves and family members, they were able to hear Trump refer to CNN as the "Communist News Network". Referring to those who criticize Demagogue Don or do not praise him sufficiently, Donald had this to say: “We will not be tyrannized, we will not be demeaned, and we will not be intimidated by bad, evil people."
The evil people in Trump's America include those who wonder why the nation is still celebrating confederate generals who fought against the U.S. Army in order to preserve slavery.
Everything is turned upside down in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld where accurate information is boring, totally irrelevant, and false when the truth contradicts a Trumpster reality creation.
Referring to the opposition, Don the Authoritarian claims that he is waging battle against a "new left fascism" that wants to destroy American values and erase American history.
Donald barely mentioned the pandemic in his July 3rd speech at Mount Rushmore. His sole reference was to thank those on the front line. Instead, he wanted to talk about preserving confederate monuments and military bases named after confederate generals.
In Trump's America, someone wants to "cancel" our history and heritage by renaming Fort Hood, a U.S. military base named after the Confederate General John Bell Hood.
This is what Bell had to say about black Americans in a 1864 letter to General Sherman: "You came into our country with your Army, avowedly for the purpose of subjugating free white men, women, and children, and not only intend to rule over them, but you make negroes your allies, and desire to place over us an inferior race, which we have raised from barbarism to its present position, which is the highest ever attained by that race, in any country in all time." I understand why republicans want to honor John Bell Hood. The question is why does anyone else go along with them.
Is Hood canceled and erased from the nation's history by renaming Fort Hood? Trump and his cult members answer that question in the affirmative.
Personally, I will remember General Hood as the person responsible for sending my 2 x great-grandfather, pictured below, across two miles of open terrain during the Battle of Franklin (1864), with only 1 battery of artillery support against a fortified Union Army position, with many Union soldiers armed with the newly developed Spencer repeating rifle. It was a slaughter of course. I am lucky to be here. In a family history, it was noted that my 2 x great-grandfather had no shoes; and his feet were bleeding in the snow as he charged the fortified union position.
10 Facts: The Battle of Franklin | American Battlefield Trust ("At Gettysburg, 12,000 Confederates attacked over a mile of open ground following a 150-gun bombardment of a Union line protected by a low stone wall. They reached their objective and held out for around thirty minutes before being repulsed, leaving about 1,415 dead or mortally wounded on both sides. At Franklin, 20,000 Confederates, supported by just one battery, advanced over two miles of open ground and struck a Union line made up of three tiers of sturdy breastworks and abatis that in most places stood about eight feet high.")
So why does Donald want to keep the name Fort Hood?
Pence's Mass Infection Event in Arizona left at least 8 members of his secret service detail stranded in that state with COVID-19 infections. At least 8 Secret Service agents stuck in Phoenix with coronavirus after Pence trip
Opinion | Trump is running an openly racist campaign - The Washington Post
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley says Confederates committed ‘treason,’ backs review of Army base names - POLITICO Most of those confederate generals were U.S. Army officers and swore an oath to defend the U.S.
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Trump's False Military Equipment Claim - FactCheck.org
Trump spends most of his time in the Oval Office watching TV instead of listening to his advisers, John Bolton suggests
Donald recommends that the Trumpsters turn off FOX during the weekend afternoons and start watching OAN that lavishes servile praise on him constantly:
Trump rips Nascar for banning Confederate flag-MarketWatch;Trump targets Bubba Wallace while criticizing NASCAR ban on Confederate flag - CBS News This is to be expected from Donald. And he obviously believes that the republican base supports his embrace of the confederate flag.
At Mt. Rushmore and the White House, Trump Updates ‘American Carnage’ Message for 2020
Trump Defends Confederate Flag in Latest Race-Based Appeal to White Voters - The New York Times
Donald fetish for the confederacy may energize voters in several southern states (e.g. Tennessee) that he would carry by just using an occasional dog whistles on race rather than shouting through a bullhorn. Donald already has the confederate flag waving voters.
A desperate Trump bets on racism in 2020 election
Opinion | Let’s not mince words. Trump is racist. - The Washington Post
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Mary Trump: Donald is a Bad Person-Who Could Have Known:
Donald has no discernible positive personality traits and an array of highly undesirable ones.
Mary Trump: Tell-all book depicts president as inept, habitual liar; Mary Trump’s Book Accuses the President of Embracing ‘Cheating as a Way of Life’ - The New York Times While 81% of republicans view Donald as honest, it is obvious to everyone else that Donald lies all the time about almost everything. It would be difficult, probably impossible, to find anyone who is more dishonest. Donald enjoys lying and manipulating people with demonstrably false statements and narratives. 81% of republicans view him as honest. National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 - Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Points | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (Question # 11). Ignore them. Do not bother to engage them in a fact based conversation about issues. They are hopeless.
Review of ‘Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World’s Most Dangerous Man’ by Mary L. Trump - The Washington Post
Mary Trump, who is a clinical psychologist, claims that Donald checks all the boxes for malignant narcissism. I have been making that same claim for years.
It is an obvious diagnosis that anyone can make.
Malignant narcissism is a combination of the narcissistic personality disorder, sociopathy, paranoia and sadism (pleasure in harming others which does not have to physical). Malignant Narcissism: Does the President Have It? An Update | Psychology Today; How to Spot a Narcissistic Sociopath
Mary Trump suggests that Donald may have a learning disability that interferes with his ability to process information. Psychological disorders and family squabbles: 9 details from the book by Donald Trump’s niece - POLITICO
That may be so, and is common among Trumpsters as well.
Donald clearly has an aversion to learning, reading and listening to the opinion of experts. Trump says his 'gut' is more reliable than everyone else's 'brains'; Trump Follows His Gut - The Atlantic; Opinion | Does Trump’s great gut mean a tiny brain? - The Washington Post
When asked, for example, whether he was preparing for the trade negotiations with China, Trump responded as follows: “I know it better than anybody knows it, and my gut has always been right.”
Or, when he was asked about the FED's interest rate policy, he replied: "I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”
Why People Follow a Trump (or a Hitler): Malignant Narcissism & Simplicity - FRANK YEOMANS - YouTube; Narcissism Interventions: Why They Fail (w/ Trump Example) - FRANK YEOMANS - YouTube He makes a good point in the second video that intervention will not work; and the political system needs to contain the malignant narcissist rather than enabling him. So far republicans have done everything possible to protect, enable and nurture the malignant narcissist who is currently the President of the U.S. What's more, they see nothing wrong with doing so.
Frank Yeomans, MD, PhD, Psychiatrist, Psychotherapist, Transference Focused Pyschotherapy, Borderline, Narcissism Specialties
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Donald's Holds Mass Infection Events Where He Inflames Cultural Divisions and Supports White Supremacy with a Bullhorn:
Tulsa sees Covid-19 surge in the wake of Trump's June rally; Trump rally likely contributed to surge in COVID-19 cases, Tulsa health official says - ABC News
Donald held another Mass Infection Event at Mount Rushmore last Friday. Social distancing was banished at this political rally and almost no one wore a mask, following Donald's example. Masks optional, no social distancing on agenda for Trump fireworks event at Mount Rushmore - MarketWatch I counted four people wearing masks using a photo available at Reuters.
The evil people in Trump's America include those who wonder why the nation is still celebrating confederate generals who fought against the U.S. Army in order to preserve slavery.
Everything is turned upside down in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld where accurate information is boring, totally irrelevant, and false when the truth contradicts a Trumpster reality creation.
Referring to the opposition, Don the Authoritarian claims that he is waging battle against a "new left fascism" that wants to destroy American values and erase American history.
Donald barely mentioned the pandemic in his July 3rd speech at Mount Rushmore. His sole reference was to thank those on the front line. Instead, he wanted to talk about preserving confederate monuments and military bases named after confederate generals.
In Trump's America, someone wants to "cancel" our history and heritage by renaming Fort Hood, a U.S. military base named after the Confederate General John Bell Hood.
This is what Bell had to say about black Americans in a 1864 letter to General Sherman: "You came into our country with your Army, avowedly for the purpose of subjugating free white men, women, and children, and not only intend to rule over them, but you make negroes your allies, and desire to place over us an inferior race, which we have raised from barbarism to its present position, which is the highest ever attained by that race, in any country in all time." I understand why republicans want to honor John Bell Hood. The question is why does anyone else go along with them.
Is Hood canceled and erased from the nation's history by renaming Fort Hood? Trump and his cult members answer that question in the affirmative.
Personally, I will remember General Hood as the person responsible for sending my 2 x great-grandfather, pictured below, across two miles of open terrain during the Battle of Franklin (1864), with only 1 battery of artillery support against a fortified Union Army position, with many Union soldiers armed with the newly developed Spencer repeating rifle. It was a slaughter of course. I am lucky to be here. In a family history, it was noted that my 2 x great-grandfather had no shoes; and his feet were bleeding in the snow as he charged the fortified union position.
So why does Donald want to keep the name Fort Hood?
Pence's Mass Infection Event in Arizona left at least 8 members of his secret service detail stranded in that state with COVID-19 infections. At least 8 Secret Service agents stuck in Phoenix with coronavirus after Pence trip
Opinion | Trump is running an openly racist campaign - The Washington Post
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley says Confederates committed ‘treason,’ backs review of Army base names - POLITICO Most of those confederate generals were U.S. Army officers and swore an oath to defend the U.S.
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Trump's False Military Equipment Claim - FactCheck.org
Trump spends most of his time in the Oval Office watching TV instead of listening to his advisers, John Bolton suggests
Donald recommends that the Trumpsters turn off FOX during the weekend afternoons and start watching OAN that lavishes servile praise on him constantly:
+++
The Repulsive Trumpster Tucker Carlson-a Fox "news" Anchor:
The 100% pure and servile Trumpsters anchoring the Fox "news" evening broadcasts remain in Donald's favor of course. Tucker Carlson suggests that Senator Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs in the Iraq War, hates the U.S.,- The Washington Post; Fox's Tucker Carlson attacks Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth's patriotism, gets blowback
Carlson further claimed that Senator Duckworth was a "deeply silly and unimpressive person".
Senator Duckworth volunteered for the Army Reserve's Officer Training Corps while a graduate student at George Washington University. She received her commission in 1992 and became an Army helicopter pilot.
She joined the Illinois National Guard in 1996.
While working on her Phd in political science, her unit was deployed to Iraq.
Senator Duckworth lost both legs when her Black Hawk helicopter was shot down by a rocket fired grenade fired by an Iraqi insurgent.
Tucker Carlson's comment is typical for smug, republican chicken hawks.
Tucker Carlson's top writer quits after secretly posting racist and sexist remarks in online forum
I recall seeing a commercial that the republicans ran against the former U.S. Senator Max Cleland (D-GA) in their successful effort to defeat this moderate back in November 1980. Shortly before the election, the republicans ran ads linking Cleland to Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Chambliss Ad (Cleland)-YouTube Cleland was defeated by Saxby Chambliss who avoided military service during the Vietnam War. Cleland fought in the Vietnam War, losing both legs above the knee and his right forearm. Cleland was one of the Democrat senators who voted for the Iraq War resolution.
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Unmasked Florida Woman Purposefully Coughs on Brain Tumor Patient—and the Shocking Video Is Going Viral The woman became belligerent when the clerk refused to accept as a return an item that she did not have with her.
What's behind the crying, screaming 'Karen' meltdowns that keep going viral? Experts explain
Karen With A Gun And Road Rage! - YouTube
Dallas 'Karen' tosses food during mask meltdown
Karens Going Wild by Pavel P. (@karensgoingwilds) • Instagram photos and videos
White Couple Arrested After Viral Video Shows Woman Pulling Gun on Family Outside Chipotle
Militias flocked to Gettysburg to foil a supposed antifa flag burning, a hoax created on social media - The Washington Post
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Covid-19 Updates:
Trump claims 99% of US Covid-19 cases are 'totally harmless' as infections surge Just another thoroughly shameful and knowingly false statement about a matter that impacts the health of U.S. citizens.
Trump Falsely Claims ‘99 Percent’ of Virus Cases Are ‘Totally Harmless’ - The New York Times
Trump makes false coronavirus claims - ABC News
Trump's False Claim on Coronavirus Harm - FactCheck.org
PolitiFact | Donald Trump’s false claim that 99% of COVID-19 cases are harmless
It is shameful, except of course in Trump's America, that an American president lies about such an important health issue.
FDA chief STEPHEN HAHN dodges Trump’s coronavirus 99% 'harmless’ claim - New York Daily News If Biden wins, Hahn needs to be fired on day one. When the President's own medical advisers refuse to correct his misleading claim, the coronavirus trust gap grows The FDA Chief has a duty to be honest on matters impacting people's health and Hahn has failed in that most basic obligation.
Donald is basically telling everyone that it is safe to ignore social distancing, mask wearing and other precautions.
What autopsies reveal about coronavirus - The Washington Post
Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
Immunity to the coronavirus is 'fragile' and 'short lived,' immunologist warns
Dr. Fauci says coronavirus immunity may be 'finite,' duration remains uncertain
Dr. Anthony Fauci says he hasn't briefed Trump in at least two months, despite pandemic resurgence Donald is not interested in what experts have to say about the pandemic. His concern starts and stops with his reelection and he needs everybody to forget about the pandemic to improve his chances even if the result is several thousand deaths.
People are refusing mandatory orders to wear masks on flights, and it's causing mayhem with other passengers Opposition to wearing masks will be prevalent, as far too many Americans believe they have the right to transmit disease to strangers and even those they know.
Herd immunity questioned after Spanish coronavirus antibody study "Herd immunity" is achieved when about 70% of the population has antibodies. COVID-19 and the long road to herd immunity | Hub Even when herd immunity is achieved, the duration of protection and the amount of antibodies needed to provide immunity are open questions.
Texas, Florida and Arizona officials say early reopenings fueled explosion of coronavirus cases
States mandate masks, begin to shut down again as coronavirus cases soar and hospitalizations rise (7/6/20)
As the Virus Surged, Florida Partied. Tracking the Revelers Has Been Tough
Los Angeles Apparel factory ordered closed after over 300 coronavirus cases and 4 deaths
Early coronavirus numbers for July are grim
Trump breaks with Fauci: US in 'good place' in fight against virus (7/8/20); Coronavirus updates: US nears 3M cases; Florida hospital ICUs reaching capacity (7/8/20); Coronavirus updates: US sets another grim record with over 60,000 new cases in a day (7/8/20); Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are surging (7/8/20); Americans frustrated with testing delays as coronavirus surges-MarketWatch (7/8/20); 'A hot mess': Americans face testing delays as virus surges-StarTribune.com (7/8/20). Doctors have become better at saving lives among seriously ill patients. It remains to be seen, however, whether the recent parabolic surge in infections and hospitalizations will take the daily death toll over 1,000 consistently.
'All the hospitals are full': In Houston, overwhelmed ICUs leave patients waiting in ER (7/10/20)
13 states now report coronavirus testing issues, in echo of early troubles (7/10/20)
Florida ICUs nearing capacity as deaths spike; Nevada, New Mexico renew restrictions; Kentucky requires masks (7/10/20)
Coronavirus deaths rise again amid mounting outbreaks
239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne Those experts claim that COVID-19 particles can linger in the air and infect people. The smaller particles are not generated by a sneeze which produces larger droplets that zoom through the air, but by talking.
Scientists urge WHO to address airborne spread of coronavirus
Half of Nevada's businesses didn't comply with mask rules, investigators say This is to be expected as a nationwide issue IMO.
Kimberly Guilfoyle, Top Fund-Raising Official for Trump Campaign, Tests Positive for Coronavirus - The New York Times Ms. Guilfoyle is Donald Trump Junior's girlfriend. She attended Donald's Mass Infection Event in Tulsa, as did Herman Cain who was later hospitalized with an infection.
'The threat is real': Miami hospital flooded with critical COVID patients
At least 121 test positive in UW frat outbreak
WHO halts hydroxychloroquine, HIV drugs in COVID trials after failure to reduce death - Reuters (6/4);
WHO formally drops hydroxychloroquine, HIV drug from COVID-19 drug study - MarketWatch The NIH had earlier halted its hydroxychloroquine trial for the same reason. NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine-National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Hydroxychloroquine is Doctor Don's miracle cure for COVID-19. Trump is now demanding as of yesterday that the FDA reauthorize its emergency authorization for hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19.
Kansas G.O.P. Official Compares Mask Order to Holocaust - The New York Times
Republican state lawmaker calls on Ohio residents to stop getting tested for coronavirus | TheHill
Opinion | Donald Trump's Deadly Coronavirus Delusions - The New York Times (Paul Krugman opinion column)
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All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Small Ball:
Small Ball Rules:
1. Each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain (a variation that allows for purchases that reduce the average cost per share);
2. Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
3. On price pops, I will consider selling the highest cost lots for a profit, and some positions will be eliminated when the price objective is met.
4. When the position is eliminated, there is no longer a hard purchase restriction. The general idea is to consider restarting a small ball "purchase program" when the price falls at least 5% below the last sell price, preferably by more than 10%, with the best option being at below the lowest price paid in the previous chain.
The overall goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and largely mechanical trading strategy. The strategy required me to make several hundred small purchases during March 2020 and to sell the higher cost lots into the April-June 2020 rally.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades.
I am not concerned about the dollar value of the profit provided I am in achieving the objectives set out above.
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Small Ball:
Small Ball Rules:
1. Each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain (a variation that allows for purchases that reduce the average cost per share);
2. Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
3. On price pops, I will consider selling the highest cost lots for a profit, and some positions will be eliminated when the price objective is met.
4. When the position is eliminated, there is no longer a hard purchase restriction. The general idea is to consider restarting a small ball "purchase program" when the price falls at least 5% below the last sell price, preferably by more than 10%, with the best option being at below the lowest price paid in the previous chain.
The overall goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and largely mechanical trading strategy. The strategy required me to make several hundred small purchases during March 2020 and to sell the higher cost lots into the April-June 2020 rally.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades.
I am not concerned about the dollar value of the profit provided I am in achieving the objectives set out above.
A. Bought 100 EXG at $7.42:
Quote: EXG | Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Overview
Closing Price 7/10: EXG $7.44 +$0.05 +0.68%
Closing Price 7/10: EXG $7.44 +$0.05 +0.68%
"The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of domestic and foreign common stocks with an emphasis on dividend paying stocks and writes call options on or or more U.S. and foreign indices with respect to a portion of the value of its common stock portfolio to generate current cash flow from the options premium received". Fact Sheet 3/31/20.pdf
EXG is classified as a buy-write equity income CEF.
Sponsor's website: Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (EXG) | Eaton Vance
Dividends: Monthly, currently at $.0616 per with substantial ROC support ($.7392 annually)
Yield at $7.42: 9.96% (assumes no change in the penny rate)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/22/20 (owned as of)
Data Date of Trade (6/3/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.02
Closing Market Price: $7.39
Discount: -7.86%
Average Discounts (as of 6/3):
1 Year -5.12%
3 Years -2.31%
5 Years -4.09%
Sourced: EXG-CEF Connect
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (SEC filed shareholder report for the period ending 10/31/19)
Top 10 Holding as of 4/30/20:
The problem with buy-write funds in a secular bull market is illustrated by the EXG share price decline since I sold the 331+ share lot in 2013. Those problems can generally be described as follows: (1) the "write" part of the strategy will likely restrain participation in the secular bull, particularly if implemented in a way that causes a net loss and (2) these funds support high dividend yields with return of capital that gradually erodes the asset base which results in lower net asset values per share over time and causes a reduction in the dividend penny rate. For EXG, another problem has been its global stock selection since most foreign markets have substantially underperformed the S & P 500.
On 6/3/20, the net asset value per share was at $8.02 and the monthly dividend rate was at $.0616
On 6/3/13, the net asset value per share was at $10.5 and the monthly dividend rate was at $.0813.
Current Position: 100 Shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares this Account, may own up to 10 shares in Roth IRA accounts.
Goal: Trade, where victory is defined as harvesting several monthly dividend payments and then exiting the position at a price higher than $7.42.
I have smaller positions now in two other accounts.
I have smaller positions now in two other accounts.
B. Started QYLD-Bought 5 at $20.73:
Closing Price 7/10/20: QYLD $21.42 +$0.04 +0.19%
Sponsor's Website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF ("The Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the same index.")
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
Expense Ratio: .6% (includes .06% in fee waivers that expire on 3/1/21)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
C. Started SCHD as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $52.65:
Closing Price 7/10: SCHD $51.49 +$1.12 +2.22%
Sponsor's Website: Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF ("The fund’s goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100™ Index.")
Expense Ratio: .06%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Total Holdings as of 7/2: 104
Expense Ratio: .06%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Top 10 Holdings as of 7/1:
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ (SCHD)-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
D. Pared PWCDF-Sold 10 at $17.72; 10 at $18.13; 10 at $19.31:
D. Pared PWCDF-Sold 10 at $17.72; 10 at $18.13; 10 at $19.31:
Closing Price 7/10: PWCDF US$17.58 +US$0.40 +2.31%
CAD Priced Shares: Power Corp. of Canada (CA:POW)
Profit Snapshots: +$82.19
These three 10 lot sells were out of my highest cost lot, a 100 share purchase, which has now been whittled down to 70 shares. Item # 1. Restarted PWCDF-Bought 100 at US$15.65; 10 at $14.37 10 at $14.98 and Sold 10 at $16.31 (5/9/2020 Post)
New Average Cost Per PWCDF Share: US$15.12
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Added 10 PWCDF at US$14.11; 10 at US$13.85
Current PWCDF Position: 100 shares (includes 70 shares from the original 100 share lot and 3 ten share purchases at lower prices
CA:POW: I also own 100 of the ordinary shares priced in CADs and traded in Toronto. Item # 1. Bought 100 POW:CA at C$21.37 (5/30/20 Post) (POW:CA purchase);
CA:POW: I also own 100 of the ordinary shares priced in CADs and traded in Toronto. Item # 1. Bought 100 POW:CA at C$21.37 (5/30/20 Post) (POW:CA purchase);
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/29/20
Dividends | Power Corporation of Canada
Morningstar Report (6/2/20): 3 stars with a PT of C$23.85
This report is available to Schwab customers.
Morningstar Report (6/2/20): 3 stars with a PT of C$23.85
This report is available to Schwab customers.
Sell Discussions:
Item # 4 Sold 100 PWCDF at $22.03 (10/5/19 Post)(profit snapshot $110.05); Item # 1. Sold 10 PWCDF at $16/31 (5/9/20 Post),(profit snapshot = $6.6); Item # 4.A. Sold 100 PWCDF at $23.56 (7/22/17)(profit snapshot= $141.95); Item # 1 under "Portfolio Management": Sold 400 POW:CA at C$31.05-Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot after conversion from CADs to USDs = $360.45); Item # 2 Sold 100 PWCDF at $28.07 (11/22/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $210.03); Item # 5 Sold 100 PWCDF at $28.83 (8/2/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $138.71).
Realized Gains to Date: +$1,049.98
E. Started FSPHX-Bought $100 at $29.84:
Closing Price 7/10: $30.41 down $.18
Fidelity® Select Health Care (FSPHX)- Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
Sponsor's Website: FSPHX - Fidelity ® Select Health Care Portfolio | Fidelity Investments
There was a 10 for 1 split in 2019.
Expense Ratio: .7%
Distributions: The major source will be capital gains, if any, with nominal ordinary dividend payments.
Top 10 Holdings as of 5/29/20:
F. Started INTF-Bought 5 at $23.59:
Sponsor's Website: FSPHX - Fidelity ® Select Health Care Portfolio | Fidelity Investments
There was a 10 for 1 split in 2019.
Expense Ratio: .7%
Distributions: The major source will be capital gains, if any, with nominal ordinary dividend payments.
According to the sponsor, the ETF provides "Efficient access to a portfolio of global developed market large- and mid-cap stocks (ex U.S.) based on an index that focuses on four proven drivers of return: financially healthy firms, stocks that are inexpensive, smaller companies and trending stocks."
Quote: INTF | iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor International ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/10: INTF $23.46 +$0.16 +0.69%
Closing Price 7/10: INTF $23.46 +$0.16 +0.69%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor International ETF | INTF
Expense Ratio: .3%
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/15/20 (owned as of)
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/15/20 (owned as of)
Dividends: Semi-Annually in June and December
iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor International ETF (INTF)-Morningstar (Currently rated 3 stars)
G. Pared MGC-Sold 1 at $109.39:
This was my highest cost lot bought at $85. Item # 2.I. Restarted MGC-Bought 1 at $85 and 1 at $83 (3/21/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$24.39
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added 1 MGC at $80 (5/16/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: MGC - Vanguard Mega Cap ETF | Vanguard
Expense Ratio: .07%
New Average Cost Per Share: $82.5
Sponsor's Website: MGC - Vanguard Mega Cap ETF | Vanguard
Expense Ratio: .07%
New Average Cost Per Share: $82.5
Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (MGC)-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.C Sold 8 MGC at $108.64-Elimination (12/11/2019)
Dividends: quarterly at a variable rate
H. Pared DES-Sold 5 at $21.78:
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.C Sold 8 MGC at $108.64-Elimination (12/11/2019)
Dividends: quarterly at a variable rate
Closing Price 7/10: DES $20.63 +$0.54 +2.69%
Sponsor's Website: WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund
WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES) Total Returns
Profit Snapshot: +$3.28
Last Elimination: Item # 2.B. Sold 77+ DES at $28.13 (10/22/19 Post)
WisdomTree US SmallCap Dividend ETF (DES-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
I. Sold 2 VNQ at $82.59:
Closing Price 7/10: VNQ $78.12 +$0.24 +0.31%
Profit Snapshot: $52.22
Sponsor's Website: VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF
Expense Ratio: .12%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Since VNQ receives some ROC-supported dividends from its REIT holding, it will pass through that tax classification in its dividends.
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
Other recent discussions:
Item #2.A Sold 10 VNQ at $81.08 (7/5/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $82.15)
Item # 1.D Sold 10 VNQ at $79.89 and 10 at $80.06 (6/14/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.2)
Item # 3 Sold 10 at $83.36-a Roth IRA Account: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $72.63)
Item # 3 Sold 10 at $80.74: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 11/5/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $65.39) That post contains a discussion on the reasons for owning REITs.
I highlighted the prices to make a point about a channel trading for a security that is stuck in that channel. There were no capital gain distributions that would account for the price stagnation.
VNQ Trading Profits: $423.32 ($371.1. in prior trades)
I prefer to own individual REIT stocks and simply view VNQ as a trading vehicle.
J. Eliminated SAR-Sold 35 at $18.65:
Quote: Saratoga Investment Corp.
Closing Price 7/10: SAR $16.30 +$0.17 +1.05%
Profit Snapshot: Net at $34.91
Form 10-K (period ending 2/29/20)
I discussed the reasons for eliminating my position in a prior comment. I disliked the external managements paying themselves a huge incentive fee and then suspending the common shareholder's dividend. I viewed that as outrageous.
Subsequent to this elimination, SAR did reinstate a dividend after reporting earnings but cut the penny rate from $.55 to $.40 per share. Saratoga Investment Corp. Announces Fiscal First Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Declares $0.40 Per Share Quarterly Dividend for the Quarter Ending May 31, 2020
Recent News: Saratoga Investment Corp. Prices Public Offering of $37.5 Million 7.25% Notes Due 2025 This bond received a BBB rating from Egan-Jones Ratings Company. The 7.25% yield for a 2025 maturity is inconsistent with the yields of other BBB-rated bonds and even junk bonds rated BB or higher. This is a baby bond and is expected to trade under the symbol SAC.
Net Asset Value Per Share:
5/31/20: $25.11
2/29/20: $27.13 Form 10-K (p. 67)
11/30/19: $25.3 Form 10-Q (p.3)
5/31/20: $25.11
2/29/20: $27.13 Form 10-K (p. 67)
11/30/19: $25.3 Form 10-Q (p.3)
8/31/19 : $24.47 Form 10-Q
2/28/19 : $23.62
2/28/18 : $22.96
2/28/17 : $21.97
2/29/16 : $22.06
2/28/15 : $22.70
2/28/19 : $23.62
2/28/18 : $22.96
2/28/17 : $21.97
2/29/16 : $22.06
2/28/15 : $22.70
K. Started GBDC-Bought 10 at $12.32; 10 at $11.75; 5 at $11.2
Quote: Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC)
Closing Price 7/10: GBDC $11.47 +$0.16 +1.41%
GBDC is a new BDC position for me.
Website: Home | Golub Capital BDC
GBDC SEC Filings
SEC Filed Investor Presentation May 2020
5 Year Financials: Fiscal Years Ends on 9/30
Management: External
Average Cost Per Share: $11.87
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 ($1. annually), reduced from $.29 effective for the 2020 fiscal third quarter. Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Declares Fiscal Year 2020 Third Quarter Distribution of $0.29 Per Share and Announces Preliminary Fiscal Year 2020 Second Quarter Financial Results
Some special dividends have been paid.
Closing Price 7/10: GBDC $11.47 +$0.16 +1.41%
GBDC is a new BDC position for me.
Website: Home | Golub Capital BDC
GBDC SEC Filings
SEC Filed Investor Presentation May 2020
5 Year Financials: Fiscal Years Ends on 9/30
Average Cost Per Share: $11.87
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 ($1. annually), reduced from $.29 effective for the 2020 fiscal third quarter. Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Declares Fiscal Year 2020 Third Quarter Distribution of $0.29 Per Share and Announces Preliminary Fiscal Year 2020 Second Quarter Financial Results
Some special dividends have been paid.
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/8/20 (owned 10 as of)
2019 Tax Classification for Dividends:
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
3/31/20: $14.62
12/31/19: $16.66
9/30/19: $16.76
9/30/18: $16.10
9/30/17: $16.08
9/30/16: $15.96
9/30/15: $15.80
9/30/14: $15.55
9/30/13: $15.21
9/30/12: $14.6
9/30/11: $14.56
IPO at $14.5 in 2010 Prospectus
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
2019 Tax Classification for Dividends:
3/31/20: $14.62
12/31/19: $16.66
9/30/19: $16.76
9/30/18: $16.10
9/30/17: $16.08
9/30/16: $15.96
9/30/15: $15.80
9/30/14: $15.55
9/30/13: $15.21
9/30/12: $14.6
9/30/11: $14.56
IPO at $14.5 in 2010 Prospectus
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"On April 8, 2020, the Company issued transferable subscription rights to stockholders of record which allowed holders of the subscription rights to purchase up to an aggregate of 33,451,902 shares of our common stock. Stockholders received one right for each four outstanding shares of common stock owned on the record date of April 8, 2020. The Company expects to raise approximately $300.0 million in net proceeds from the offering. The rights offering expired on May 6, 2020 and preliminary results indicate that the rights offering was meaningfully over-subscribed. The Company received subscriptions totaling over 65 million shares at a subscription price of $9.17 per share. The exact number of shares of common stock purchased by each investor for will be determined on or around May 15, 2020." (emphasis added)
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Announces Final Results Of Transferable Rights Offering ("In total, the Company sold 33,451,902 shares of its common stock for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $306.7 million.")
Internal Risk Ratings:
Maximum Position: 100 shares.
L. Started MILN--Bought 2 at $28.09:
Quote: MILN | Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/10: MILN $29.09 +$0.26 +0.90%
Closing Price 7/10: MILN $29.09 +$0.26 +0.90%
Sponsor's Website: Millennials Thematic ETF "The Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) seeks to invest in companies that have a high likelihood of benefiting from the rising spending power and unique preferences of the U.S. Millennial generation (birth years ranging from 1980-2000)."
Expense Ratio: .5%
Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
Top 10 Holdings as of 7/9/20:
2. Bought 100 JQC at $5.82:
Quote: JQC | Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund Overview - A Leveraged CEF
Closing Price 7/10: JQC $5.82 0.00 0.00%
I discussed this purchase in a 7/9/20 comment.
Sponsor's website: JQC - Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund
JQC SEC Filings
JQC is a leveraged junk bond fund. Normally, I would stay away from a leveraged CEF that owns junk during a recession, but decided to nibble at this one based on the current yield. I also bought 100 in my Fidelity taxable account.
Leverage:
Dividend: Monthly at current penny rate of $.081 per share (.$972 annually assuming no change which is not a reasonable assumption to make)
Next ex-dividend date: 7/14
Yield at current penny rate = 16.7%
Data Date of 7/8/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $6.83
Closing Market Price: $5.83
Discount: -14.64%
Sourced from JQC-CEF Connect
Portfolio Holdings as of 4/30/20: SEC Filing
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund (period ending 1/31/20; holdings list starts at page 79)
Goal: The general idea is to harvest a few monthly dividend payments and then escape at whatever profit is available before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
Prior Trade: The last liquidation consisted of 804+ shares sold at $9.35, resulting in a $1,060.89 gain. Item # 5 Liquidated JQC-Sold 804+ at $9.35 (5/16/12 Post)(profit snapshot included) Junk bonds were mauled during the Near Depression period when I started to buy this leverage junk bond ETF. It is not a good idea to buy securities that are plummeting in price using significant amounts of borrowed money. I am not expecting a Nobel Prize in Economics for that observation, though I will not protest if anyone nominates me.
3. Initiated FGDFX-Bought $250:
Quote: FGDFX | Fidelity Disruptors Fund Overview
FGDFX is a fund-of-funds that owns 5 Fidelity mutual funds.
Closing Price 7/10:
Average Cost Per Share: $12.01
I mentioned this ETF in a 7/9 comment and have nothing to add here. My first purchase was made on 6/4/20.
Purchase Restriction: $50 per future order; each purchase must lower my average cost per share.
Just surfing the wave.
I also bought a few shares in FTEKX, one of the 5 disruptor mutual funds that is owned by the Fidelity Disruptors Fund.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Just FYI BPY has issued tender offer at $12 but as of Friday close is 11.08. Was trying to pick some up Thursday but was distracted by a few other things going on. Also adding to RIOCF a bit betting on Canada pulling out more quickly from COVID recession and strengthening CAD if oil rebound.
ReplyDeleteI bought RIOCF yesterday but my confidence is not that high. The second quarter results may provoke the company to cut the dividend, using the same type rational that Artis did when it slashed its monthly penny rate. Riocan's stock had almost been cut in half since I last sold it. I will probably discuss that stock purchase, and any subsequent adds, in early August. I bought 10 at $10.94.
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/riocf
I will not buy any security that has a K-1 filing. I did flip earlier this year, and did not discuss in the blog, BPYU shares, a related REIT. The buy was at $9. The holding period was 6 days, generating about a 10% annualized return. I also currently own 10 shares of BPYUP which I did discuss earlier. I view both BPYU and BPYUP as very high risk common and equity preferred stock respectively.
I recently bought the parent BAM in a ROTH IRA account which I will not discuss here.
In the REIT space, I have started small ball "purchase programs" in two new names, CXP and PLYM, as part of my slow mo response to the FED's Jihad Against Savers that will likely last for an extended period. It will be weeks before I discuss those purchases.
My last RIOCF elimination was a 100 share lot sold at $20.35 (12/2/16). This was a quickie noted in a 12/4/16 comment:
Deletehttps://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4936267-south-gents-comment-blog-6-reits-preferred-stocks-and-bonds-regional-banks-healthcare#comment-73756015
I have not been back until the 10 share purchase yesterday at $10.94.
I previously sold the CAD priced shares in 2014 at C$27.04:
Item # 7
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2014/07/performance-numbers-ytd-fidelity.html
The CAD price shares closed last Friday at C$14.89 (Toronto exchange):
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rei.ut?countrycode=ca
RIOCF are the ordinary shares priced in USDs that trade on the U.S. pink sheet exchange.
Herd thinking explains the delays from some news releases that I expect big moves on, and a day or two later the market moves.
ReplyDeleteExtrapolate to the bigger picture... I still don't get how so many investors are sure the market will return to normal soon enough to make it clear these are good buys. There's a lot that can happen in the about 2 years before full recovery can be considered, since the highs were on expanded P/Es and not on great earnings to begin with.
The herd idea makes sense as increased during these times, when there's so little concrete data for judging price valuations. People do that with other types of events. Even standing ovations are often a good study of everyone looking around and joining the few who stood first.
From your family's story, Mr. Hood was a crummy leader, and that doesn't take into account his viewpoints. That's a sad battle. I kind of wonder about people who memorialize a war they lost with a sense of pride. It'd be easier to ignore it way, and be proud Americans of the Union, on the winning side of eventual history.
I saw a news blurb that I haven't heard elsewhere yet on media or articles, from newsweek. This is terrifying. It would have been my top story yesterday.
https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkEtuxCAMhk8z7IggDJnMgkU3vUbkgBNQA6Q8mqanL5mRLNny47f9aSi4xnSqPeZCasY0OaM4v8tBjIIYdTd8lCNxeVoSoge3qZIqkr3Om9NQXAzXRM-kEMQqMAvHcRZcz2hAiMcT9bOXixSG84FLcu2ZoBqHQaPCH0xnDEg2ZUvZ80183PrPZsdxdAGPfCB-dTr6lnIa6QY1aOvCSrUr7g9DpqDBoD-pjjVlpDYeFNYmflJICXPJ1Hnv1gShhVzyYZADce3gnrEH52xkDyE63rHV1L98zGJYvm935te-y3XOBfTrAJJUsS57KAVT5oy1nvXC8So2GlPzvgZXzgkDzBuaN6jyRvv6u5w7quutDS-Zd7LRG0b-fAjS9pnYNIOyCMVi0vE3OW0hmRzDP-k_lVo
ICE is going to train hand selected private citizens to help them in their ICE jobs.
That is the start of Stalinism and Nazism. Creating a citizen army authorized to harass and "report on" and ultimately harm, the population. One wonders what hand Putin has in this.
This raises the stakes that were already super high to astronomical, that Biden has to win and the Senate flip.
In the "Markets and Market Commentary" section, I added a snapshot of the forward estimated S & P 500 GAAP and Non-GAAP ("operating earnings") as of 7/8/20.
ReplyDeleteI took the snapshot directly from S & P's website. The data can only be downloaded into Excel.
For the 12 months ending in December 2021, the non-GAAP earnings estimate was $161.45 compared to $108.86 for 2020, a 48.31% increase.
Is snort an economic term?
ReplyDeleteI'd noticed this in the Saturday write up, and had duly noted. This means stock estimators are collectively using poor conclusions.
They are often enthusiastic. This is disconnectedly so. From technical indicators, wonder if there's any assessment from the past of "when estimates start to disconnect from company projections?"
Unless in some odd way, the tech stocks and those in the Church that Work are really going to do that well. Sigh, just afraid of missing what the bulk of investors are "seeing."
FG is overall very bullish, but is suggesting a near term pullback may be in the cards.
The end of July end of stimulus and need for more, I guess does have some conflicts. But over payment issue seems to have been worked out. I will buy stocks into this. Even though it seems clique so it shouldn't work.
Land: It has paid to be bullish since I was born when the S & P 500 was near 20.
DeleteThere will be periods when being bullish will not work, but so far the market has ended up recovering from assorted disasters and has thereafter moved higher.
The longest of those periods in my lifetime started around 1/1/1966 and lasted until August 1982.
Periods of major downdrafts are becoming more frequent.
Between 1940 to 2000, there was one stock market Catastrophic Event, occurring in 1976, and 2 since 2000.
I start the period of more frequent episodes of financial instability with the Asian Contagion in 1997 and the Long Term Capital Management fiasco in 1998.
Many of these events have been and will continue to be linked to excessive debt; misallocation of resources in, and mispricing of financial assets; and distortions of price discovery through Central Bank monetary policies lasting for extended periods now measured in decades.
In other words, what has happened since the Near Depression and will continue to happen make the world economy less stable and more likely to have more frequent major economic cataclysmic events.
The FED is telling investors do not stay in cash or credit risk free instruments; and it will punish anyone who does. Money market funds are paying .01%. Investors are being rewarded for taxing risks. Something will have to change that to intolerable and longer lasting pain before the herd will start a stampede in the other direction.
Expectations about future earnings are not realistic but that is normally the case.
That was a rollcoaster emotionally based day. The down seemed to be based on jawboning and renewed closings. I haven't tracked down timing enough to be satisfied that it's from those annoucements. However I'm not going to make an effort to.
DeleteReality of vaccine hits reality of reclosings. But it all started off with excitement about earnings that weren't announced yet (from what I can tell.)
I've made progress on cleaning out my storage room. That too is emotionally based. But it's based on having too much stuff to sort though.
I don't play with Tesla. That appears to be what triggered the Morning excitement, along with fast tracking that we already knew was planned.
Land: I suspect that the intra-day reversal from a strong opening was due to California shutting down restaurants, bars and theatres statewide.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/california-to-close-indoor-restaurants-movie-theaters-and-bars-statewide-as-coronavirus-cases-rise.html
The Wisconsin GOP held a Mass Infection Event indoors with most of the attendees studiously ignoring social distancing and virtually no one wearing a mask. This is to be expected and is not surprising of course.
The interesting moment occurred when the lead speaker started to talk and could not stop himself from coughing.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/see-it-wisconsin-congressman-glenn-grothman-coughs-uncontrollably-at-mask-optional-gop-event/ar-BB16E9fL
Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
ReplyDeleteUS$17.52 +US$0.99 +5.99%
Last Updated: Jul 13, 2020 at 10:47 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sjr
I own 132+ shares in my Fidelity taxable account.
SJR released its earnings report after the close last Friday, which beat expectations.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590361-shaw-communications-eps-beats-c-0_05-beats-on-revenue
Press Release:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/10/2060810/0/en/Shaw-Announces-Third-Quarter-and-Year-to-Date-Fiscal-2020-Results.html
Shaw Communications is a Canadian company. SJR is the USD priced shares traded on the NYSE.
Dividends are paid monthly in Canadian dollars and converted into USDs for SJR owners. When shares are held in a U.S. citizens taxable account, there will be a 15% Canadian withholding tax which is not levied when the shares are owned in a U.S. citizens retirement account (assuming the brokerage company is doing its job). I also own shares in a Roth IRA account where no withholding tax has been levied on the dividends. I am reinvesting the dividends in all accounts.
My plan is to sell my highest cost lot held in my Fidelity taxable account when and if the price goes back over $20. My lowest price lot was purchased at $12.45 in that account (3/23/20)
While I would not draw any conclusions about what happened today, it is possible that the Stock Studs may have lit a match to the Church That Works Now.
ReplyDeleteInvesco QQQ Trust Series I
$258.54 -5.43 -2.06%
DAY RANGE
257.69 - 269.79
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qqq
The QQQ names started a reversal around 1:30 P.M. EDT when Amazon, which had been up around 4.5% earlier today, started to turn down, ending the day down $96 or 3%.
Value stock ETFs managed to maintain their gains.
Vanguard Value ETF
$100.51 +0.32 +$0.32%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv
I read an article over the weekend that five stocks accounted for entire Wilshire 5000 gain since January 2017.
The news today about a Pfizer vaccine receiving fast track status from the FDA was an irrelevant piece of information. The FDA frequently confers that status on early stage compounds. I would anticipate that most of the vaccines that show some anti-viral activity in Phase 1, and do not harm the volunteers, will receive fast track status.
Of the drugs approved by the FDA between 2015-2017, 64% had been granted fast track status.
" it is possible that the Stock Studs may have lit a match to the Church That Works Now."
ReplyDeleteLol.
That's a lot of good points in that assessment. (And more useful than what I came up with.)
QQQ was down as others up a few days ago too. Then it looked like excitement over a vaccine was leading to moving money from covid stocks to real world stocks.
This time it was the same at first? But by end of day now that I see your comment, it does feel like a match lit. It's a big extended pile of hard to light stocks, so it's just a little match by comparison. But that's a first.
Five stocks since 2017? That's not breath, and lack of breath. I don't understand how that works since others rose too.
Land: This is a link to the article.
Deletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/?p=AAPL
The 5 stocks are AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, and FB.
That observation is different from breath in that there would be a lot of stocks showing gains in the Wilshire 5000 in addition to those 5 mega caps.
When earnings and cash flow growth slows down and turns negative for many companies, there is a tendency for money managers to crowd into large capitalizations companies that are growing free cash flow, which ultimately results in some very crowded and expensive real estate. So at some point some major owners ring a bell and the stampede reverses direction. I can not say whether that occurred to today, but it needs to happen since the stocks that have led the market up this year are pricey and the law of large numbers comes into play for several of them.
Apple closed at $292.16 on 12/31/20 and at $381.91 today. The market cap at today's close is about $1.655T with a 30 trailing.
Apple Computer:
12 month P/E.
F/Y Ending Sept. 2019
Net Income: $55.256B
Diluted E.P.S. $11.89
2018 F/Y Net Income: $59.531
Diluted E.P.S. $11.91
Sourced Page 17:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019319000119/a10-k20199282019.htm
The decline in E.P.S. was significantly lower than the fall in net income due to share repurchases.
In the last reported earnings, net income was reported at $11.259B, down Y-O-Y from $11.561B in the Q/E 3/31/19.
Page 1
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019320000052/a10-qq220203282020.htm
Citigroup, JPM and WFC reported second quarter earnings this morning. The results were awful but better than expected at C and JPM.
ReplyDeleteWFC reported a net loss of $2.69B or $.66 per share, down from +$5.85B or +$1.3 per share in the 2019 second quarter. The provision for credit losses increased $8.4B. NIM fell to 2.25% from 2.82%.
Citigroup reported E.P.S. of $.5 down from $1.95 in the 2019 second quarter.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/citigroup-profit-falls-sharply-but-beats-analyst-estimates-2020-07-14?mod=mw_quote_news
JPM reported E.P.S. at $1.38. A $5.8B provision for credit losses was taken with the new accounting convention CECL accounting for $4.3B of the reserve buildup.
CECL = “current expected credit losses"
2020 is going to be one bad year for banks.
I recently discussed WFC in response to a reader's comment.
Investors are reacting negatively so far:
Wells Fargo & Co.
$23.85 -$1.70 -6.69%
Last Updated: Jul 14, 2020 at 9:32 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wfc
I do not have a position in the common stock but may take a look when and if the price falls below $20. The negative reaction is deserved IMO.
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
ReplyDelete$3.7015 ++1.5415 (+71.37%)
As of 10:33AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RIGL?p=RIGL
I own 150 shares at an average cost of $2.1.
My memory about about RIGL had been buried in one brain cell and hidden from my consciousness.
When I saw the rise today, I could not recall anything about the company other than its name and that I owned some shares.
The jump today is due to this development:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rigels-stock-jumps-25-after-announcing-uk-trial-for-possible-covid-19-treatment-2020-07-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
RIGL Press Release:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rigel-announces-investigator-sponsored-trial-of-fostamatinib-in-patients-with-covid-19-pneumonia-301092803.html
Today I have email talked with several people who are stressed out and overwhelmed with all the news. Especially with the covid increases. Everyone seems on edge.
ReplyDeleteI've tried to arrange to visit my parents and sister. I'll stay with my parents. My sister wants us (and her family) to socially distance for several days, while I stay at a separate rental (that doesn't share airvents with anyone), and wear masks if we close by. (I think it's a bit much when we know where we've been.)
And the stock market is happy that an trial is starting, based on a company's press release.
Please let me have one of these releases a few minutes before, so I can buy up stock like I'm sure is happening.
There has some of the feel of 1999 where companies announced what they intended and maybe even some income, not profits. And that was enough.
I'm saying what you already know and it's repetitive. It's what comes to mind looking at this market.
One of these days I'll sell my WMT again. It's back near it's recent highs.
I don't see any catalyst for this market to pullback meaningfully.
There isn't anyplace else for dividends. I guess coupled with the idea that in 2-3 years the economy will be back to normal, so it's not the risk of other recessions, is why. In the past people did pull out when it got too wonky.
Land: The market is better than coffee at keeping me alert.
DeleteI even managed to hold onto RIGL since I now view any profit as free money. So of like finding $300 in an old pair of pants that I had not worn in two years.
Communal spread at family gatherings does happen, including such events as birthday parties and other short term social gatherings.
I read a NYT article today that had a few examples:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/coronavirus-texas-rio-grande-valley-border.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
There was a report today of 43 infections tied to a party in Michigan.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/us/michigan-party-coronavirus-cases/index.html
Covid-19 is highly infectious and IMO out-of-control due to a variety of factors including people refusing to take precautions, the lack of comprehensive testing and contact tracing, and the long lead time between a test and the results. Atlanta's Mayor is infected and she mentioned yesterday that it took 8 days to get her test results back.
Since my allergies started to act up, I bought two GermGuardian air purifiers that have UV-C lights that allegedly kill viruses.
Some experts say the UV-C light is not harmful to humans, though California apparently requires a warning label. I run them at night mostly with the UV-C light on. I have one running now near me with the UV-C turned off.
"Germ Guardian True HEPA Filter Air Purifier with UV Light Sanitizer, Eliminates Germs, Filters Allergies, Pollen, Smoke, Dust Pet Dander, Mold Odors, Quiet 22 inch 4-in-1 Air Purifier for Home AC4825E"
$84.99 at Amazon or Target
We're not doing parties with groups, lol. We're doing two parents who've been isolating except for dialysis (and tennis but keeping a distance), and me who's isolating except I'll buy groceries tomorrow at least a week before coming (there isn't time for 2 weeks before).
DeleteAnd a family that's been isolating together except for one scared trip to a ice cream shop for outside take way eat in the car cones, and one person grocery shopping. And me. The younger niece is the wild card. How well she's isolating.
We're feeling our way on how to do this safely enough. I'm worried about staying at the standalone rental that's been empty a day (I'll open all windows on arrival and add a fan and not go in for a bunch of hours.) Instead of staying in their garage. (It's an ok temperature this time of year there.)
Years ago I'd read up on air purifiers and the UV light supposedly works. It's a great idea. I don't know about it's safety. I won't use it in California, will that solve that? (I know. That's not what the means.) It's little money, added to the rental. But maybe that is a good addition.
We agree if I don't visit now it will likely be a year before I can again.
If there was testing it would make this much easier. I can get a test at CVS or RiteAid. What I can figure out is how good the tests are. They sites don't mention enough specifics to even try to figure it out. My sister's in a city but it's still rural enough that drug store testing would be an 1 1/2 drive. (A doctor's office could order one locally if she had symptoms.)
The market has me so numb and stunned that I wind up not paying attention. It's pain avoidance. I'd like to take advantage of the opportunity. But skyriser climbing doesn't seem the best way. Yet that's all that's available.
Land: Testing at CVS is an option, and I would just accept the results as being accurate when no symptoms are present. You have to register in advance:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing
Note that the waiting time is currently 5 to 7 days.
You mentioned buying a pulse oximeter. With readings of 95% to 100%, it is my understand that your lungs are functioning normally. Readings below 90 probably need a call to the doctor.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/symptoms/hypoxemia/basics/definition/sym-20050930#:~:text=Normal%20arterial%20oxygen%20is%20approximately,90%20percent%20are%20considered%20low.
My readings are generally in the 94%-96%. With some quickie ticks above and down to 93%.
I use a Vicks Rapid Read Digital Thermometer which gives a reading in a few seconds.
It only takes one infectious person to spread.
I am doing some light buying in out-of-favor stocks and funds. I have not bought any of the growth stock ETFs this week and probably will restrain myself from even 1 or 2 share purchases. They probably need to come with warning labels now.
Today the dollar amount of my double short ETF purchases about equaled the dollar amount spent on stock purchases.
I am still arguing with myself on a daily basis about keeping my stock allocation.
One way that will resolve the internal conflict for months is to liquidate a major stock fund position, but I am down to just one of those now.(1,045 shares in the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund -PRWCX). That one may go soon.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/quote
""It only takes one infectious person to spread. ""
ReplyDeleteAnd this is the big problem.
My oxi readings were 98 or 95%. High enough to be very clearly fine. I have it on my packing list. They have a meter too.
Will bring a large fan and air out the room on arrival through open window while I'm outside.
I like that UV light idea.
Will burn sage for an hour. I've done that as part of earthy-crunchy adventures. It's supposed to clear the auora. Dawned on me it probably got that reputation because it kills viruses. Well, turns out I don't know about viruses, but it kills bacteria:
https://www.kron4.com/news/national/burning-sage-kills-94-of-airborne-bacteria-research-shows/v
I'm now trying to figure out bedding. Plans were a blanket and sheet on the bed to cover it. My own pillows. Wondering if more is needed. I plan to island on the bed and wash hands if I touch anything else.
I still have to check the latest schedule for testing around here.
Out of favor stocks is the way to go.
For whether to keep allocation, is there risk of a large decline? Doesn't seem to be. Even if there is, seems likely to recover. I don't have a sense. Asking to see if it's good questions to ask.
What I still have in can stay for 10 years. So I'll leave it for now. I should figure out % again. I have but things moved so fast, who knows by now.
I dug up my thermometer during the gallbladder event. After several days more of feeling fatigued and "off" and not able to do much, figured I should see if I had one (a tad, nothing to call a doctor over). It does work still. It too should go into my suitcase. I had a glass one, but it did what they do. Shattered on the floor and made mercury balls.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad I said something even if it's not about investing. (Only about reality that the market doesn't believe in.) Gave good ideas...
ReplyDeleteNow I realize what's been bothering me. The strict 6 feet and masks, seemed a bit overkill. Worth doing but not worth making it such a thing that my sister will have a panic attack if we move in closer for a moment.
It's because the criteria are so made up. So they're worthwhile. But not worth being completely exacting. MUCH more important is not having someone sick in the space. If someone is, that stuff may really not work enough to stop a spread.
So things like oxi, and testing... and UV light and a fan to dilute air, are maybe even more important at making a safe space. One that one can be in, and not panic constantly.
When I said it seemed silly, it wasn't her worries that seemed so. It was the 6 feet, mask, and outside for 3 days, paper plates... And what was bothering me is that they aren't *exacting* enough. It's not like with nuclear material where there's a formula for it's reach.
I'm still not sure it's a good idea. But I have something to think on now and see how it feels.
We need an invention of projecting mints. Take one. If someone can smell the mint, your air has reached them.
Land: Many scientists believe that smaller Covid-19 particles can lay suspended in the air over an extended period.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-53329946
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798
The six foot guideline protects more for a large droplet expulsion from a cough or sneeze. Those will have heavier viral loads than the small particles that can lay suspended in air and move with the air current.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/06/air-conditioning-may-be-factor-in-covid-19-spread-in-the-south/
I thought there was a likelihood that COVID-19 was spread throughout the Diamond Princess through air ducts after the passengers were quarantined to their quarters on 2/5/20.
I will wear a mask when I leave the house. I will sanitize it first by leaving it outside in the morning full sun (may not work as well on porous vs. non-porous materials), then quarantining it the garage for at least a week; and will wash with soap and water occasionally (soap breaks the virus down). I have several of them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/27/the-health-202-sunlight-does-kill-the-coronavirus-but-not-in-the-way-trump-suggested/5ea5993e88e0fa3dea9c2b24/
Yep. I've assumed from the beginning that breathing out if infected, could be virus into the air, whether or not one coughed. It sounds like it's less transmittable than measles thru the air. But there has to be some.
DeleteAir ducts have seemed like the explanation for a few situations where people were avoiding each other but still got infected. We looked for a rental that is completely standalone.
I was glad to find this article. I have no recall what I was looking for when I found it, but it lists types of mask materials.
I'm using the blue paper ones that I have leftover from the prior misdiagnosis. At least something useful came out of that. They are apparently effective. I've been wondering how they compare.
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-masks-virus/
I have also assumed that masks help the wearer not just other people. Otherwise why would doctors hand them out to low immunity patients?
Land: For the most part I use Amazing Grace cloth masks that fit me well and are breathable. A pack of 4 costs $27.5 at Amazon.
Delete"Face Mask with Built-In Protection Filters: Washable, Reusable & Size-Adjustable -Royal Blue"
I have a few N-95 masks, which I rarely use, that were left over from a sanding job that I did about 2 years ago. I will use them when and if there is a second wave that is more deadly than the current first wave. They are more uncomfortable than the cloth masks and I find it more difficult to breathe through one.
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
I would have liked to have n95 masks. They were out of stock. I'll look during this summer. The idea of a 2nd wave with different features makes it worth having a couple.
DeleteTesting is pointless. It would have made such a difference to this country. I can sign up but it takes 2-4 days after exposure to register if infected. I'm shopping today, maybe some tomorrow. Then CVS puts up a banner that it will take 10-14 days for results due to delays. By then I'll be traveling.
The false neg rate even with enough time past infection to register is 20%. A false positive is rare. So the test would be useful. .... if we had leadership and real turn around time.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
ReplyDelete3,228.50 +44.90 +1.41%
Last Updated: Jul 15, 2020 at 7:23 a.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures?mod=home-page
The pop in pre-market trading is tied to Moderna publishing more data regarding its Phase 1 vaccine. The report was published in the New England Journal of Medicine and has more detail than the May 2020 press release.
The study enrolled 45 healthy volunteers. The drug did elicit an antibody response at a 100 microgram dose, but required two shots. That is the dose that is being advanced into Phase 3 trials, skipping the normal Phase 2. The 250 microgram dose will not be advanced due to more severe side effects including 1 hospitalization.
At the 100 microgram dose level, all patients experienced side effects, though none were judged as serious by Moderna. Those side effects included fatigue, fever, chills, headache, muscle pain, and pain at the site of injection.
"One big question is whether producing antibodies predicts protection against infection — and how much protection. Another is whether the antibodies will last."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/
Another big question IMO is whether this vaccine is safe which is not answered by this small study particularly given the side effects experienced by all participants. The side effects suggest to me that more serious ones will occur when given to millions.
If the FDA approves this vaccine, and the Stock Jocks are predicting it will, I will not be taking the vaccine until I see how it effects a far larger population receiving the two doses.
Another piece of news is that the EU lost its attempt to compel Apple to pay $15B in taxes to Ireland.
This vaccine news is the same as it was before. Now it's in a journal so that is a positive. But as you point out, it has a long way to go.
DeleteToday the China relations got worse. I'm starting to wonder if timing of these various announcements are coordinated at all. They always seem to come right when another situation might tank the market a bit. Maybe too much conspiracy on the brain though.
I forgot to do my taxes. Somehow it hasn't been mentioned by media in a while. Maybe there's been too much other news. I will try to file an extension today. I've gotten a refund the last couple years, so probably have it setup, where that will be true this year.
Looking at my stocks, what's noticeable is a few are high in the tech area. Everything else is in that same trading range. Really not back to it's near peaks.
Well one solution would be free floating real interest rates not tapping on zero.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/states-take-aim-at-people-with-no-retirement-plan-11593945474?mod=wsjtwittertest19
Maybe I could write this more clearly.
DeleteStates are putting in programs to encourage people to save for retirement.
My immediate thought is, letting us have interest bearing accounts might help more! (.01% is not interest bearing in any meaningful way.)
Land: The FED is not going to end its Jihad Against Savers anytime soon. Fortunately, I locked in higher rates using a bond ladder strategy, so it will take some time for those bonds to roll off. I am losing a number to early redemptions where the issuer has to pay a premium to par value, which compensates me for the lost interest income that would have been paid with no optional redemption (the "make whole" payment)
DeleteSince the major indexes are capitalization weighted, major declines in Apple, Microsoft, Google and other QQQ type stocks would take the market down a lot even if every other stock did not change in price. Maintaining price levels is not what stocks do when the worm turns to the downside. Panic starts as investors see profits start to evaporate. Major indexes are sold in a variety of ways which in turn causes all components to come under selling pressure. Problems that have been ignored in the real world become noticed again as investors ponder why the best of the best are falling.
I don't think the Stock Jocks have given up on the high flyers yet. There is some anxiety building about how earnings will fare for the second quarter as we move closer to those reports being released, starting next week.
I did put a 5 share order for a relatively new ETF this morning. That is about all of the courage that I can muster.
I eliminated CNA.
++
Trump and Ivanka are doing ads for Goya whose President Robert Unanue praised Donald effusively, saying the U.S. is "truly blessed" to have Donald as President.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bulls-cnns-chris-cuomo-gets-fired-up-over-president-trumps-goya-advertisement-from-the-white-house-2020-07-16?mod=mw_latestnews
Goya makes food products, primarily for the Latino community, many of whom justifiably took exception to the praise.
Out-of-favor sectors are doing better this morning than the high flying QQQ names.
ReplyDeleteInvesco QQQ Trust
$256.81 -$4.09 -1.57%
Last Updated: Jul 16, 2020 at 11:52 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qqq
vs.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$38.09 +$0.34 +0.90%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
or
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
$37.57 +$0.19 +0.51%
QQQ started to get nicked a bit last Monday after it failed to pierce $270.
If Monday marked the turning point in technology stocks, then I suspect that those names will take most stocks, irrespective of valuation, down with them.
While the QQQ type names have led the market, and may continue to do so, I suspect that some investors are becoming nervous with the elevated P/E ratios and possibly suffering a mild anxiety attack about second quarter earnings. Several of the high flyers will report next week.
++
Donald was given a softball question from Sean
Hannity in a recent interview. The question was what did he want to accomplish in his second term.
Sarah Cooper, who does satire mimicking Trump with his exact words, did her take on the Extremely Stable Geniuses response:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2EU-VKPrXU
If tech reverses downward, then that will spread to other stocks....?
ReplyDeleteThat's an interesting point.
Sarah's videos are fun. So Trump has no experience. That's his plan for a winning campaign message.
I'm still amazed that the earth found a problem to throw at him, that he couldn't bully.
Land: The Lincoln Project ended the last quarter with $10M in the till.
DeleteTheir most recent ad is biting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTpF-ucHCqA&t=10s
"One hand" - the best line in it.
DeleteI was wondering why they were talking up ad time over a drink, till that line was said.
Picked a great actor to read it.
In the video that follows, I wish that interviewer would get onto cable news and interview the GOP reps. He does so much better at undercutting the lies and illogic (than media does.)
A study published in Lancet found that contact tracing will not reduce the spread when test results are delayed by 3 days or more.
ReplyDeleteThe study is too dense for lay people to read, but this article contains an understandable summary:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/tl-pss071620.php
This statement is in a 7/12/20 WP article:
"Quest Diagnostics said results across the country are taking three to five days on average; LabCorp said it is taking four to six days."
That contradicts claims made by the Trump Administration that results are delivered in 2 or 3 days in half the states with 24 other states taking 3 to 4 days. Even if the Trump Administration was not lying about the average time, the Lancet study would indicate that even the shorter delays claimed by the U.S. government are too long to make contract tracing an effective measure to control the spread.
I tried again to figure out how to get testing. The state provides resources. I don't feel comfortable calling a doctor since I don't have symptoms.
DeleteSo, the urgent care clinics here have waiting lists of 130 people to sign up to -take- the test. Then it takes up to 10 days to get results. I asked if sometimes shorter and got stories of how much backlog there is. That timing was in addition to scheduling.
It would help so very much. I will be isolating for at least 4-5 days before traveling. It's not nearly long enough, but if I were to get sick AND be symptomatic, it will be enough for that to happen. I'm unlikely to be unsymptomatic. If I get any inflammation in fighting off something, parts of my body will tell me.
My other non-covid labs came back a few weeks ago about 2 days delayed from before.
Land:
Delete"Recently published research found that on average, the time from exposure to symptom onset (known as the incubation period) is about five to six days. However, studies have shown that symptoms could appear as soon as three days after exposure to as long as 13 days later. These findings continue to support the CDC recommendation of self-quarantine and monitoring of symptoms for 14 days post exposure."
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-basics#:~:text=Recently%20published%20research%20found%20that,as%2013%20days%20later.
Yikes. I was using what I last heard on CNN's townhalls and read on sites offering testing. I'd distinctly heard Guypta talking with another doctor discussing that it's *now* known that if it's going to be active, most cases are in 2-3 days, but asymptomatic can still spread longer so the 14 days still applies. I've heard that more than once. The point was to say that it was NOW known to be this incubation period that is shorter. So I wasn't mishearing it as can be shorter or longer. I'll take a study over reporting though. I still have a 5-6 day window in the schedule.
DeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/fhlc-fsphx-hta-idv-intf-irbo-min-sca.html