Saturday, May 30, 2020

ANGL, BAB, BRG, EBIZ, FAX, FBIOX, GOOD, HBAN, MCDFX, POW:CA, TFC, TY, VT, WASH

Economy

The BLS second estimate for first quarter real GDP was a 5% annualized decline. The first estimate was a -4.8%. GDP 2nd Estimate 2020 1st Quarter.pdf Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments declined an estimated $295.4B. US GDP Q1 2020 second estimate  

Harvard's Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different (worth reading)(more Hysteresis; Rogoff: It’s probably going to be, at best, a U-shaped recovery. And I don’t know how long it’s going to take us to get back to the 2019 per capita GDP. I would say, looking at it now, five years would seem like a good outcome out of this.")

US savings rate hits record 33% as coronavirus causes Americans to stockpile cash, curb spending, see Personal Income and Outlays: April 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)(personal consumption expenditures decreased by an estimated $1.89 trillion in April)


Mitch McConnell: Congress will probably have to pass another stimulus bill 

New orders for durable goods declined 7.2 percent in April.pdf (Brian Wesbury blog discussion)


Chicago PMI weakens to 32.3 in May from 35.4 in prior month: report - MarketWatch Any number below 50 indicates an ongoing contraction. The numbers are consistent with an ongoing recession.  

Consumer confidence May 2020 There was a slight rise to 86.6 from 85.7 last month. The consensus estimate for May was at 82.3.

Trump tweets states 'should open up ASAP' as death toll nears 100,000 His reelection is at stake. Damn the Torpedos, Full Speed Ahead, a phrase uttered first by Admiral David Farragut during the Battle of Mobile Bay in 1864. The quote was shortened from what he actually said: "Damn the torpedoes. Four bells. Captain Drayton, go ahead. Jouett, full speed.".

A staggering number of laid-off workers are receiving more money in unemployment benefits than they did from their jobs - MarketWatch


Mortgage rates hit another all-time low as home buyers rush to secure cheap financing - MarketWatch


Pending Home Sales Slump 21.8% in April | www.nar.realtorPending home sales saw biggest decline on record in April because of coronavirus pandemic - MarketWatch


For the week ending 5/23, initial claims for employment was 2,123,000. News Release This figure does not include the people who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance or PUA.


Almost 41M jobless claims have been filed since Covid-19 was declared a pandemic. Weekly jobless claims reach 2.1 million, but total unemployed shrinks



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Markets and Market Commentary

For now, bad economic news and worsening tensions with China will not alter the Stock Jocks belief in an emerging Blue Sky scenario. 

Besides an unshakeable belief that the economy will come roaring back soon, with no material drags from the pandemic and shutdowns, stock prices are receiving a boost from low interest rates that are expected to remain in place for years. The 30 year U.S. treasury bond closed yesterday at a 1.41% yield. 

Miscalculating Risk: Confusing Scary With Dangerous The author argues that the shutdowns were a hysterical overreaction and were unnecessary since most of the deaths were old folks and those with pre-existing conditions. The argument assumes that the death toll would have been the same without the shutdowns.  

++++++

Trump

Trump is blaming China and WHO for the U.S. pandemic. 


Last Friday, he basically accused China of worldwide, first decree mass murder. Trump Announces End To Hong Kong Privileges After China's Move-NPR

Doctor Dons' Miracle Drug Hydroxychloroquine

France, Italy, Belgium and the WHO have now halted studies of Doctor Dons' miracle cure for Covid-19 based on harm to patients. France also issued a nationwide health advisory noting "that there was no sufficiently robust clinical study demonstrating the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in Covid-19 regardless of the severity of the infection." Covid-19: use of hydroxychloroquine


Demagogue Don's Reckless and Factually Unsupported Claims of Voting Fraud


Despot Don threatened to withhold all federal funds from Nevada and Michigan if those states proceeded with mail in voting. Trump Makes False Claim About Michigan Secretary of State and Mail Voting - The New York Times If he proceeded along those lines, it would simply be committing another abuse of presidential power.  






Don does not explain why it is illegal to vote by mail or provide any evidence that voting by mail is rife with fraud. 


It is not necessary in Trump's America for him to justify his claims-only to make them. 


What he says is true in TrumpWorld even if it is blatantly false. Trump’s phony claims about ‘illegal’ voting in Michigan and Nevada - The Washington Post (noting Americans have been voting by mail for more than a century; Trump voted by mail; and voting by mail is safer than in person voting during the pandemic)   

For the first time, Twitter labelled one of  Donald's tweets with a factcheck. This is what that looks like:

Donald went into his rage mode that anyone would dare claim that one of his reality creations even needed to be fact checked. His constitutional right to free speech was being stifled by Twitter who hates "conservatives". 

‘Totally absurd and legally illiterate’ — Harvard law prof on Trump’s charge Twitter is stifling free speech - MarketWatch 

5/27/20 Demagogue Don Tweets:

A person would have to be incredibly stupid to believe that Twitter is stifling Trump's speech. Politifact rated Donald's claim "Pants on Fire". PolitiFact | Trump’s Pants on Fire claim that Twitter is ‘completely stifling free speech’ by fact-checking him  

For anyone who still has functioning brain cells, and far too many people in the U.S. need to be declared among the living brain dead, it is obvious that Twitter is providing Donald with a platform to spew his vile and lies to tens of millions.  

I would note that Michigan voters are guaranteed the right to vote by mail in that state's constitution. Absentee voting is permitted for any reason. Michigan Constitution, Article II, § 4(1)(g) 

Michigan Constitution-II.pdf 


Constitutions are irrelevant in TrumpWorld as are facts and truth. 


I would further note that Donald falsely stated that the Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson mailed out ballots. She mailed out applications for absentee ballots. Donald lies about everything of course. 


Donald does not mention that 2/3rds of the states permit any registered voter to vote absentee without offering an excuse, nor does Demagogue Don mention in his tweets that republican controlled states (Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska and West Virginia) have already mailed absentee ballot applications to their voters. 


If Donald loses in November, he will claim voter fraud.  


If he loses a battleground state like Michigan, he will call the election illegitimate as will millions of Trumpsters. 


Once an authoritarian tastes power, they are not likely to go quietly. 


Possibly if he loses Michigan by 500,000+ votes, he will not claim a loss due to baseless voting fraud accusations.  


He will claim voting fraud even if he wins, as he did in response to losing the 2016 popular vote. 


I suspect he will lose the popular vote by over 4M in the next election, as Biden receives larger majorities in heavily populated blue states like California, Illinois and New York than Hillary. Donald could still win by carrying a few states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by similar and extremely narrow vote margins as he did in 2016.

Trump and Massive Voter Fraud Allegations-Cover For Voter Suppression (2/13/17 Post)

Republican groups sue California over expanded mail-in voting (5/25 article)


As Trump rages, state officials quietly press forward with vote by mail ("Of the states offering mail-in options, leadership is almost equally split: 24 have Democratic governors and 22 Republican.")

++


Disgusting Donald Continued to Accuse Joe Scarborough of Murder


Trump is of course an internet troll and has been since he first joined twitter. 

The Presidency gave him an army of like minded trolls doing his bidding.  


Donald is the only voice that matters in the republican party, enjoying about 95% support among those who identify themselves as members of that political tribe. 


If in future years, republicans find its politically necessary to distance themselves from Donald, it needs to be remembered that no such distance existed when it mattered.

The Comedian Dave Chappelle correctly and succinctly summed up what happened shortly after the November 2016 election:  "America's Done it. We’ve actually elected an internet troll as our president" 


On weekend dedicated to war dead, Trump tweets insults, promotes baseless claims and plays golf - The Washington Post   


Thoroughly Disgusting Donald tweeted and retweeted last Sunday the fact free accusation that Joe Scarborough murdered Lori Klausutis. 


In TrumpWorld, Joe Scarborough was having an affair with Lori, got her pregnant, and then murdered her to cover it all up. 


Trump, who has no decency whatsoever, is in fact engaging in post-mortem libel of a dead young woman who was happily married to Timothy Klausutis. 






Donald did not attend Church service last Sunday. He played golf instead and published the usual cascade of false and misleading tweets. 

Making baseless claims about Scarborough last Sunday were Donald's substitutes for prayer. Only in TrumpWorld is Donald a Christian. 

After the husband of Lori Klausutis requested that Twitter delete Trump's hurtful remarks last Tuesday, Trump decided to double down and repeat his murder accusations against Scarborough, which is gaining a lot of traction in Trump's America based on comments that I have read:





Widower of Joe Scarborough staffer seeks removal of Trump tweets that promote baseless conspiracy theory Trump's Troll Army can now be reasonably expected to attack the widower for standing up to Disgusting Donald.  

Timothy Klausutis’s Full Letter to Jack Dorsey- The New York Times 

This is an excerpt from that letter: 
 


"The frequency, intensity, ugliness, and promulgation of these horrifying lies ever increases on the internet. These conspiracy theorists, including most recently the President of the United States, continue to spread their bile and misinformation on your platform disparaging the memory of my wife and our marriage. President Trump on Tuesday tweeted to his nearly 80 million followers alluding to the repeatedly debunked falsehood that my wife was murdered by her boss, former U.S. Rep. Joe Scarborough. The son of the president followed and more directly attacked my wife by tweeting to his followers as the means of spreading this vicious lie."

When asked about this letter, Trump stated that he had read it and then made the following comment: 

“I’m sure that, ultimately, they want to get to the bottom of it and it’s a very serious situation As you know, there’s no statute of limitations. So, it would be a very good, very good thing to do.”  Trump Pushes a Conspiracy Theory That Falsely Accuses a TV Host of Murder - The New York Times In Donald's view, the widower did not mean what he actually said in his letter. Instead, Mr. Klausutis really wanted to thank Donald for these tweets.  

Last Wednesday (5/27), Donald continued to display his evil spirit with this tweet: 

Trump again tweets about Scarborough conspiracy, despite heavy criticism Donald gives new meaning to the word "asshole". 

Donald can not help himself. He is evil and is only doing what is natural for him given his true nature. Jack Dorsey's Twitter simply enables Trump and his cult members to spew their vile throughout the world on a daily basis.  


Only someone who is throughly evil could make those comments about Scarborough once, let alone over and over again to a worldwide audience.  


The widower may have a claim against Donald for Intentional infliction of emotional distress. If I was on the jury hearing that claim, I would award the widower compensatory damages and a 7 figure punitive damage award.

Donald also likes to retweet comments from conspiratorial wingnuts and his admirers and propagandists at Fox "News" (e.g. Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson, Gregg Jarrett, Lou Dobbs, Jeanine Pirro, Steve Doocy, Brian Kilmeade) Those were commonplace last Sunday as well and everyday for that mater.    


Donald particularly liked retweeting comments by someone called John K Stahl (@JohnKStahlUSA) / Twitter last Sunday. 


After reading a few of Mr. Stahl's comments, it was easy to see why Donald admires him so much and wanted to give him worldwide prominence by retweeting several of Stahl's tweets. Trump Promotes Posts From Racist and Sexist Twitter Feed - The New York Times The NYT article discusses Mr. Stahl's posts. 


"Thomas Paine" referenced in the first Trump Scarborough tweet above is reportedly Michael D. Moore. Revealed: Notorious Pro-Trump Misinformation Site True Pundit Is Run By An Ex-Journalist With A Grudge Against The FBI 


In the second tweet, Trump retweeted a comment made by Matthew Couch, another spreader of conspiracy theories. 'It is indescribable': How a harassment campaign overwhelmed Seth Rich's friends and familyThe Origins Of The Seth Rich Conspiracy Theory : NPR


A newspaper is retracting the conspiracy theory it published about Seth Rich - Vox;


Will Seth Rich’s family ever get a break from conspiracy theorists? - The Washington Post


It is to be expected that Donald will continue to give worldwide prominence to his like minded internet trolls and propagators of fact free conspiracy theories. 


Twitter Can’t Change Who the President Is-The Atlantic This observation is the bottom line. We have just seen how Donald and his cult react to two factcheck icons placed next to two tweets containing unfounded statements about mail-in voting. 


Donald makes several demonstrably false statements everyday. He routinely violates Twitter rules with his viciousness. 


The only recourse that non-Trump cult members have is to vote him out of office and then relegate him to the same space as Alex Jones and other vicious generators and propagators of Fake News and fact free conspiracy theories. I do not see any material difference between Alex Jones and Donald. They are both cut from the same cloth.  


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Don The Authoritarian


In addition to being in your face evil, Donald is an enemy of fundamental and conservative values and principles. His opposition to, and disparagement of those principles is in part reflected by his strong authoritarian tendencies.   


Donald has repeatedly called the press the "enemy of the people" since they challenge his false narratives with facts.


I can not say that Donald is the "enemy of the people" since 95% of republicans support him along with a large percentage of independents and close to an 80% approval rating among white evangelicals.


Why Trump is reliant on white evangelicals

Americans' Views on Trump, Religion and Politics | Pew Research Center

Donald Trump: White Evangelicals love him

Survey: White Evangelicals See Trump As 'Honest' And 'Morally Upstanding' : NPR 

Trump is just the most serious enemy in the U.S. of conservative values.  

This threat published last Wednesday is just one of the more recent examples of his true authoritarian nature:   
Trump threatens social media shutdown over Twitter fact-check label - Reuters 

In TrumpWorld, the Duck has been silenced by Twitter when it tagged a factcheck icon to one of his reality creations. And, he wants to punish Twitter for doing as he made clear in the previous tweet and in this one: 

The 100% pure Trumpster Senator from Missouri, Josh Hawley, will seek to punish Twitter through a law change. GOP Sen. Hawley asks if Twitter targeted Trump 'for political reasons'  

Last Thursday, Demagogue Don sought to regulate social media companies through executive fiat. Trump executive order would challenge Section 230 protections for Facebook, Twitter and Google - The Washington Post Attorney General Barr will  use the full force of the federal governments power to carry out the Duck's unilateral law change by suing social media companies for what this U.S. government cabal of authoritarians call "censorship". In TrumpWorld, a social media company censors Donald by placing a factcheck icon next to his demonstrably false reality creations.  



When signing the order, Donald wrapped himself in the First Amendment saying  “We’re here today to defend free speech from one of the greatest dangers. ”  Donald then added the following: "If it were legal, if it could be legally shut down, I would do it." Trump's Twitter slap shows his use of power for personal whims So Donald would shut down the primary method that he uses to manipulate the brain impaired and willfully ignorant. And, to protect free speech, he would shutdown social media sites that factcheck him.   

The Duck oozes B.S. from every pore. 

There is no greater enemy of First Amendment values than Donald. His fact free claims about voting fraud is just an example of his hostility to those values.  


This is just a sample of the Duck's other tweets from 5/27: 







Spygate (conspiracy theory) - WikipediaDOJ watchdog finds the FBI did not spy on Trump 2016 campaign - Business InsiderHow to understand Obamagate – Donald Trump's latest conspiracy theory

When asked by a reporter to explain "OBAMAGATE", Donald gave this reply: 



"Obamagate. It’s been going on for a long time. It’s been going on from before I even got elected, and it’s a disgrace that it happened, and if you look at what’s gone on, and if you look at now, all this information that’s being released—and from what I understand, that’s only the beginning—some terrible things happened, and it should never be allowed to happen in our country again. And you’ll be seeing what’s going on over the next, over the coming weeks, but I—and I wish you’d write honestly about it, but unfortunately you choose not to do so … You know what the crime is."  

The reporter then asked for specifics and Demagogue Don replied as follows: 

"The crime is very obvious to everybody, all you have to do is read the newspapers, except yours,” referring to the Washington Post. In other words, he does not even try to substantiate his accusation with accurate information. 


Trump's 'Obamagate' conspiracy theory just got blown to pieces - Business InsiderMichael Flynn’s name was never masked in FBI document on his communications with Russian ambassador - The Washington Post


Of course, facts do not matter to Donald or his cult members. I would just point out again that the FISA warrant to wiretap Carter Page was taken out after he left Trump's campaign. 


What 'Obamagate' Is Really About - The Atlantic


Donald spew some of his venom at the Atlantic magazine which caused me to retaliate by subscribing to it.



So why is Donald celebrating the loss of jobs? How many people were laid off at Mar-a-Lago. Trump's Jupiter Golf Club Lays Off 92 Following Cuts at Mar-a-Lago, Doral Resort | Daily Business Review

++


Despicable Don and Congressman Connor Lamb:



Lamb did not vote for Pelosi.

Conor Lamb is a freshman congressman from Pennsylvania. He served in the Marine Corps and as a federal prosecutor.   


Trump Wrong About Conor Lamb's Vote on Pelosi - FactCheck.org  Donald is incapable of being truthful. That is his nature. 


Another fact check organization gave Trump a now standard "Pants on Fire" rating for his claim that Lamb voted for Pelosi. PolitiFact | Trump said Pa. Rep. Conor Lamb backed Nancy Pelosi for House speaker. That’s not true.


In 2016, Trump called Lamb "Lamb the Sham". 


After reading Donald's tweet, I donated $25 to Lamb's campaign as my response to Donald's lies and disgusting comments about Conor Lamb, particularly the one that called him "an American fraud".


I will never again cast a vote for a republican. I am supporting now only moderate Democrats with small campaign contributions.

+++




Church Gatherings, the Pandemic and the First Amendment:   

Supreme Court won't force states to speed up church reopenings

U.S. Ninth Circuit  allows California governor’s church-closing rule stands (2 to 1 decision; court denied request to issue a temporary restraining order ("TRO") to prevent enforcement; a TRO is generally short term and ex parte and may last until there is a hearing where both sides present evidence and legal arguments; Rule 65. Injunctions and Restraining Orders | Federal Rules of Civil Procedure) The legal issues are difficult ones, requiring the courts to balance a First Amendment right and the state's police power to protect its citizens during a pandemic.

For religious gatherings in my area, many churches are limiting capacity voluntarily for now, but many are not requiring attendees to wear masks. One of those is a Baptist Church located near my home. As Trump Pushes for Reopenings, Congregations Choose Safety Over Haste - The New York Times (“The government simply cannot tell any religious entity how to operate,” said Jason Cruise, the senior pastor at ClearView Baptist Church in Franklin, Tenn., adding that his remark applies to the federal government as well as “rogue mayors and rogue governors across the land who were literally trashing the Constitution". . . . Masks will be optional.” The argument about masks being optional boils down to a freedom from responsibility when exercising a personal freedom.  


Police Powers During a Pandemic: Constitutional, but Not Unlimited – Reason.com  

There is a church denomination that passed a poisonous snake to church attendees. The belief was that God would protect the True Believers from being bitten and killed. Could the state intervene to protect children from being killed by the snake or charge the pastor with manslaughter when someone dies from a snake bite? Snake handling in religion - Wikipedia 

Contrary to what Mr. Cruise believes about the Constitution, churches are subject to the state's exercise of police power to protect its citizen's health. 


The constitutional issue is whether the exercise of that police power is justified by exigent circumstances and is narrowly tailored in time and scope to address those circumstances, given the fundamental constitutional right that is involved.   



+++++

Covid-19 Updates


The much hyped Moderna vaccine that is currently being tested on a few volunteers had a serious adverse on at least one healthy 29 year person who took the highest dose. He had a severe reaction to Moderna Covid-19 vaccine. He's still a believer It is only after a vaccine is given to tens of millions that we will have a good idea about its effectiveness, the length of time it provides protection, and the full panoply of side effects and their seriousness. I will probably wait for a few months after a vaccine becomes available nationwide to all takers. 


I read the CD guideline relating to elevators. Maintain social distancing of 6 feet and wear a mask. For most elevators, I reckon that means one person can ride at a time. It does not seem to be realistic advice for large office buildings.   


Trump, who spent Memorial Day without a face mask, shares tweet criticizing Biden for wearing one One way that Donald delivers his messages is to retweet comments from others. This particular retweet was from Britt Hume, one of Fox "News" more respected "journalists".

Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate | Health Affairs


Can Air Conditioning Spread COVID-19? Here's What Experts Say The short answer is yes based on air flow patterns. 

CDC says about 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic


Coronavirus Devastates Black New Orleans: 'This Is Bigger Than Katrina'


High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church- Arkansas (3 fatalities and infection spread beyond church members) 


More than 40 churchgoers were infected after attending a service on 5/10. Coronavirus: Over 40 Covid-19 cases traced to church service in Germany - BBC News


Missouri hair stylist with coronavirus worked while symptomatic, exposed dozens of clients She was symptomatic. There will be a lot more people going back to work who are symptomatic. 


Denver orders closure of facility that handles Colorado's mail 


At least 36 UPS employees in Tucson facility tested positive for COVID-19


Vogtle Nuclear Plant has seen 230 coronavirus cases; 198 of those workers have recovered


More than 100 LM Wind Power employees have tested positive for COVID-19, state health department says | Grand Forks Herald


100 workers at Quonset food plant have tested positive for coronavirus - News - providencejournal.com 


57 employees at Tennessee mushroom plant test positive for COVID-19


Cheap chicken, beef came at a cost. How American meat plants bred coronavirus hot spots.


Trump's Europe travel ban caused chaos, surge of infected passengers - The Washington Post "Epidemiologists contend the U.S. outbreak was driven overwhelmingly by viral strains from Europe rather than China. . . . Infections reached critical mass in New York and other cities well before the White House took action, according to studies mapping the virus’s spread. The crush of travelers triggered by Trump’s announcement only added to that viral load."  Based on genetic mapping, Covid-19 gained a strong U.S. foothold from European travelers, particularly in ares like NYC. More than 1.8M people entered the U.S. from Europe last February. 


++++++


Republicans wrestle with conspiracy-theory advocate winning Senate primary Might as well nominate him since he represents core GOP values as does Donald.
+++++++

All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted. 


1. Bought 100 POW:CA at C$21.37 (C$1 Commission)





Quote: Power Corp. of Canada (Canada: Toronto)


Closing Price 5/29/20: POW.TO C$22.41 -C$0.30

I discussed this stock in my 5/16/post (Item # 1.I Added 10 PWCDF at US$14.11; 10 at $13.85)

I have nothing material to add to that post which discussed the last earnings report.

The discussion in that post involved a purchase of Power Corporation's ordinary shares priced in USDs (PWCDF) and traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. Power Corp. of Canada (PWCDF)

I now own 100 POW:CA shares and 130 PWCDF shares. The only differences are that POW:CA is traded in Toronto, priced in CADs, and pays dividends in CADs, whereas PWCDF is traded in the U.S., priced in USDs and pays dividends in USDs after conversion from CADs.  

Dividend: Quarterly at the current penny rate of C$.4475 per share ($C1.79 annually)

Dividends | Power Corporation of Canada

Yield at C$21.378.38%

Next Ex Dividend Date: 6/29/20

Trading Strategy: I frequently trade this stock. Currently, I am 30 shares over my 200 share limit. I now intend to sell 50 PWCDF when and if the price exceeds US$17 after the next ex dividend date. Those 50 shares are part of a 100 share lot bought at US$15.65 that has been pared down to 90 shares with a 10 share sell at US$16.31. Item # 1. Restarted PWCDF-Bought 100 at US$15.65; 10 at $14.37 10 at $14.98 and Sold 10 at $16.31 (5/9/2020 Post)

Last Elimination of POW:CAItem # 1. Sold 400 POW:CA at C$31.05-Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha Most of my trades have been in the USD priced ordinary shares. 

2. Small Ball

Small Ball Rules


A. Restarted BAB- Bought 5 at $29.76





Quote: BAB | Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF Overview


Closing Price 5/25: BAB $31.36 -$0.40 -1.26%

Sponsor's Website: Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF

Expense Ratio: .28%

Effective Duration: 9.47 Years as of 5/15/2020

Get to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard

Round-Trips: 
Item # 2. Sold 50 BAB at $25.4  (3/23/11 Post)Item # 3 Sold 100 of 150 BAB at $24.78 (12/29/2010 Post)

Recent Dividend History:


Last Ex Dividend: 5/18/20 

Quality Ratings


This ETF is unleveraged.

I have frequently traded leveraged CEFs that own Build America Taxable Municipal Bonds.  


B. Restarted TFC-Bought 2 at $30.87; 1 at $28.85; 1 at $28.53; 1 T $27.45; 2 at $26.8





Quote Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) 

Closing Price 5/29/20: TFC $36.78 -$1.37 -3.59% 


Regional banks were experiencing a rally until Thursday when the worm started to turn back against them. 

TFC is the 6th largest commercial bank in the U.S. with total assets of $506 billion as of March 31, 2020.


I classify this bank holding company as a super regional. 

TFC SEC Filings 

TFC 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 

TFC 2019 Annual Report

Market Area, Branches and % Share of Deposits as of 12/31/19:

Current Position: 7 Shares

Average Cost Per Share: $28.59


Dividend: $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)


Truist Declares Quarterly Stock Dividends


Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.3%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/14/20 (all shares owned)


This company was formerly known as BB&T and traded under the BBT stock symbol. 


Last Sell Discussions
Item # 1. A. Sold 71+ BBT at $50.72 (7/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,330.82); Item # 1. A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $55.45 (2/8/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,061.02); Item # 3.A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $47.24 (3/28/17 Post)(profit snapshot $568.45).  


Last Earnings ReportTruist Reports First Quarter 2020 Results


"Adjusted net income available to common shareholders was $1.2 billion, or $0.87 per diluted share, excluding merger-related and restructuring charges of $107 million ($82 million after-tax), incremental operating expenses related to the merger of $74 million ($57 million after-tax), and impacts associated with certain discretionary actions undertaken by management related to COVID-19 of $71 million ($54 million after-tax). Adjusted diluted earnings per common share decreased $0.18 compared to the first quarter of 2019. Adjusted results produced an annualized ROA of 1.06 percent, an annualized ROCE of 7.88 percent and an annualized ROTCE of 15.51 percent."


"Nonperforming assets were 0.23 percent of total assets"


"Net charge-offs were 0.36 percent of average loans and leases, down four basis points compared to the prior quarter"


"The average cost of total deposits was 0.51 percent, down 13 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The average cost of interest-bearing deposits was 0.70 percent, down 25 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The average rate on short-term borrowings was 1.76 percent, down 56 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The average rate on long-term debt was 2.34 percent, down 96 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The lower rates on interest-bearing liabilities reflect declines in fed funds and LIBOR rates." (emphasis added)


Capital Ratios: 


Trading Profits To Date TFC-BBT: $2,978.29

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $26.8)


C. Added 2 HBAN at $7.4; 1 at $7.27; 1 at $6.96; 10 at $7.92








Quote: 
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)


Closing Price 5/29: HBAN $8.89 -$0.21 -2.36%  


I would classify HBAN as a super regional bank. It operating bank subsidiary, Huntington National Bank, has 839 full service branches located in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. 


SEC Filed March 2020 Investor Presentation


HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates 


HBAN SEC Filings


10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 


Investment CategoryRegional Bank Basket Strategy


Last DiscussedItem # 3.D. (3/28/20 Post) 


I discussed the 2019 4th quarter report in this post: Item # 1.D. (2/2/20 Post)


Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share


Next Ex Dividend: 6/16/20


Last Earnings Report (3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release



GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $.03, negatively impacted by additional reserves for credit losses: "$393 million increase from CECL implementation on January 1, 2020, an increase of $65 million in specific reserves, and an increase of $258 million primarily related to the deteriorating economic outlook resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic." 

The reference to CECL is a new accounting rule that requires a banks to set aside reserves based on how forecasted economic conditions may impact their loan portfolio and a variety of financial instruments. CECL standard expected to make a major impact | Accounting Today (Note: I have zero training in accounting)


Under CECL, the initial loss reserve additions taken in the 2020 first quarter, based on forecasted economic conditions, may end up being too low which would then require that additional reserves for credit losses, negatively impacting earnings in one or more subsequent quarters during an ongoing recession. 


(Negative adjustments to loan loss provision discussed at Reversing the Trend: An Examiner's Thoughts About Negative Provisions and the ALLL)

  
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.

D. Restarted VT as a Placeholder: Bought 1 at $59.99



Quote: VT | Vanguard Total World Stock ETF Overview


Closing Price 5/25: VT $72.92 +$0.16 +0.22%

Sponsor's Website: VT - Vanguard Total World Stock ETF

Last Elimination: Item # 3.D. Eliminated VT-Sold 5 at $79.01 (12/18/19 Post)-Item # 3.B. Bought 5 VT at $73.1 (4/7/19 Post)

Expense Ratio: .08%


Holdings: 8,437 as of 4/30/20


Dividends:  Quarterly at a variable rate





E.   Started TY as a Placeholder-Bought 10 at $22.93:



Quote: TY | Tri-Continental Corp. Overview- A CEF

Closing Price 5/29: TY $24.68 +$ 0.13 +0.53%

Sponsor's Website: TY | Tri-Continental Corporation | Columbia Threadneedle Investments

TY commenced operations as a closed end fund in 1929.

SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the period ending 12/31/19 This fund will own convertible bonds (6.1%), convertible preferred stocks (8.1%), corporate bonds (12.7%), senior loans (.4%), limited partnerships (.6%) and MM (2.4%) funds. I indicated weightings with the () as of 12/31/19. 

Data Date of 4/17/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $26.49
Closing Market Price: $23.03
Discount: -13.06%

Sourced: Tri-Continental-CEF Connect


Top 10 Holdings as of 4/30/20: 




Distribution History Since 1980Tri-Continental Distribution Policy and History | Columbia Threadneedle Investments US


Last Quarterly Dividend Declaration: $.2824 per share, see SEC Filed Press Release 


Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/17/20


Next Ex Dividend Date: 6/16/20 


Dividend Amount: Regular dividend of $.2824 per share + a long term capital gain distribution of $.2074.  


Tri-Continental Corporation Declares Second Quarter Distribution (The Corporation has paid dividends on its common stock for 76 consecutive years.)

The 2019 4th quarter dividend included a long term capital gain distribution of $.8115 per share. 


Tri-Continental Corporation Declares 2017 Fourth Quarter Distribution 


Net Unrealized Appreciation as of 12/31/19: $184.448+M


A large number of CEFs started operations in the 1920s before the October 2029 stock market crash and the onset of the Great Depression. The leveraged CEFs did not survive for very long. The unleveraged ones, like TY and ADX, did survive and prosper. Information about the collapse of leveraged CEF funds can be found in The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith, which I recommend reading.

Tri-Continental does have some equity preferred stock outstanding. TYPR | Tri-Continental Corp. $2.50 Cum. Pfd. Overview (par value $50). That one has been around since at least 1984.   

F. Added 10 FAX at $3.29 and 100 at $3.43


Quote: FAX | Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund Inc. Overview

Closing Price 5/29: FAX $3.68  +$0.0400 +1.10% 


SEC Filings

SEC Filing: Portfolio Holdings as of 1/31/20 

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Period ending 10/31/19

Sponsor's Website: Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc.

Dividend: Monthly at $.0275 per share, reduced last month from $.035 per share. Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc. Announces Payment Of Monthly Distribution (announcing change); Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc. Announces Record Date And Payment Date For Monthly Distribution (first declaration at reduced rate)

The new annual rate is at $.33 per share. 

The dividend is significantly supported by ROC but that support has been reduced after the dividend slash. Form 8937 (Rev. December 2017) Returning the shareholders capital to them in a dividend is not really a dividend. The ROC designated portion is not taxable as a dividend. Instead, the amount so classified reduces the tax cost basis. The shares would have to be sold to generate a tax event for ROC classified distributions.  

Current Position:  304+

Average Cost Per Share= $3.62

Yield with ROC at $3.62 = 9.12% at new penny rate

Last DiscussedItem 2.E. (3/21/20 Post)

Data Date of 4/3/20 Trade
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.07
Closing Market Price: $3.3
Discount: -18.92%

Data Date of 4/27/20 Trade
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.25
Closing Market Price: $3.42
Discount: -19.53%

Sourced: FAX -CEF Connect 

G. Restarted WASH-Bought 5 at $29




Quote: Washington Trust Bancorp Inc. (WASH)


Closing Price 5/25: WASH $31.97 -$0.98 -2.97% 


WASH is a bank holding company whose banking services are provided by its subsidiary The Washington Trust Company based in Rhode Island.

SEC Filed May 2020 Investor Presentation

WASH Analyst Estimates

SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20

Investment CategoryRegional Bank Basket Strategy

Last EliminationStocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2. Eliminated WASH-Sold 50 at $61.53 (6/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $2,309.26)- Item # 3 Bought 100 WASH at $15.26 (1/14/2010 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release

"first quarter 2020 net income of $11.9 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, compared to net income of $15.5 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, reported for the fourth quarter of 2019. Our results in the first quarter of 2020 reflect the adoption of the Current Expected Credit Losses ("CECL") accounting methodology, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."


"Effective January 1, 2020, Washington Trust adopted Accounting Standards Update No. 2016-13, often referred to as CECL, which requires the measurement of expected lifetime credit losses for financial assets measured at amortized cost, as well as unfunded commitments that are considered off-balance sheet credit exposures. CECL requires that the allowance for credit losses ("ACL") be calculated based on current expected credit losses over the full remaining expected life of the financial assets and also consider expected future changes in macroeconomic conditions. Upon adoption of CECL, Washington Trust's ACL on loans (a contra-asset) increased by $6.5 million, or 24%, and the ACL on unfunded commitments (a liability) increased by $1.5 million, or 506%, as compared to December 31, 2019. This increase in the ACL on loans and unfunded commitments upon the adoption of CECL resulted in a $6.1 million decrease to retained earnings, net of deferred tax balances of $1.9 million."

"In the first quarter of 2020, a provision for credit losses of $7.0 million was charged to earnings and was mainly attributable to the significant deterioration in the economic forecast due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Continued uncertainty regarding the severity and duration of the pandemic and related economic effects will continue to affect the accounting for credit losses under CECL. Under the previous incurred loss accounting methodology, no provision was recognized in the fourth quarter of 2019."




H. Started FBIOX-Bought $100 at $18.98


Quote: FBIOX | Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio Overview

Sponsor's website: FBIOX - Fidelity ® Select Biotechnology Portfolio 


Closing Price 5/29: FBIOX $22.92 +$0.27  +1.19%

Expense Ratio: .72%

Top 10 Holdings as of 2/29/20: 

 I. Restarted BRG



Snapshot as of 5/8/20 Close
Quote: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc. (BRG)

Closing Price 5/29: BRG $6.43 -$0.24 -3.60% 


Management: Internal

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy


I have already sold my highest cost lots in this chain: 



20 Shares at $6.38
Profit Snapshot: $3.88 


Average Cost Per Share: $4.96 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.1625 per share ($.65 annually)


Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG) Announces Second Quarter Dividends on Common Stock, 8.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, 7.625% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, and 7.125% Series D Cumulative Preferred Stock, and May and June Dividends on Series B Preferred Stock and Series T Preferred Stock


Dividend Yield at $4.96 = 13.1%


Next Ex Dividend Date: 6/24/20


Last DiscussedItem # 1.K Eliminated BRG in Fidelity Account-Sold 107+ at $6.37 (5/16/20 Post)(contains links to prior trades) 


Last Earnings Report: I discussed the 2020 first quarter report in the previously linked post.  

BRG Realized Gains to Date: +$1,151.81

J. Added 2 GOOD at $13.35




Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)-An Equity REIT


Closing Price 5/25: GOOD $17.92 +$0.28 +1.59%

Management: External


SEC Filings 


10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/30 (As of 4/28/20, GOOD owned 122 properties totaling 15.1M square feet in 25 states. The occupancy rate was then at 96.6%, page 26)


ATM Program: During the first quarter, GOOD sold 1.3M shares under its stock ATM program (page 29)

Dividend: Monthly at $.12515 per share ($1.50 rounded annually)

Investment CategorEquity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy


Distribution History | Gladstone Commercial Corporation


Last Ex Dividend:  5/18/20


Next Ex Dividend:  6/18/20


Current Position: 81+ shares this account


Average Cost Per Share: $14.81


Yield at Average Cost = 10.13%


Last Buy Discussion:  Item # 3.G. Bought 10 GOOD at $16.7; 10 at $16.4; 10 at $16; 10 at $15.7; 5 at $14.2, 5 at $13.6, 5 at $12.8; 5 at $12.1, 2 at $11.4, 2 at $10.85 and 2 at $9.5(4/11/20 Post)(used small ball purchase restriction)

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)


Other Recent NewsGladstone Commercial Corporation Provides a Business Update (5/20/20) ("Portfolio occupancy remains at approximately 97% as of May 20, 2020. Approximately 98% of May cash base rent has been paid and collected. May rental collections remain consistent with 98% of April cash base rent that was paid and collected. Remaining 2% of cash base rents are associated with the previously agreed to deferral agreements. All deferred amounts are to be paid back by the respective tenants commencing in July 2020 and ending in March 2021.)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):   


K. Added to ANGL-Bought 13 at $27; 10 at $26.5 and Sold Highest Cost 5 share lot at $27.85


Purchases: 






Sold 5 at $27.85 (highest cost lot) 



Profit Snapshot 5 Shares: $1.74


The purchase of this lot was not discussed.

Average Cost Remaining 25 shares = $26.79 

Quote: VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF Overview


Closing Price 5/29: ANGL $28.18 +$0.22 +0.79%

I discussed buying this ETF in a 5/12/20 comment.

Sponsor's Website: ANGL-VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF

This bond ETF owns junk rated bonds that were rated investment grade when originally issued.

VanEck’s Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ANGL) Increases Exposure to Higher Rated, Deeply Discounted Bonds as Downgrades Increase

'Fallen angel' ETF takes flight on Fed announcement - MarketWatch

Fed’s Commitment to Buy High Yield Should Help Lift Fallen Angels


Credit Quality as of 4/30/20: 


Dividends: Monthly

Last Ex Dividend: Yesterday, 5/28/20

Top 10 Holdings as of 4/30/20:



Maximum Position: 50 shares

I am extremely reluctant to buy shares in a junk bond ETF during a recession. The Fed's announcement that it would be buying fallen angel bond ETFs caused me to invest a trickle in ANGL. I will keep this one on a tight rein.  

L. Bought 5 EBIZ at $20.88 as a Placeholder



Quote: EBIZ | Global X E-commerce ETF Overview


Closing Price 5/29: EBIZ $21.58 +$0.57 +2.71% 

This fund invests in companies "positioned to benefit from the increased adoption of E-commerce as a distribution model, including companies whose principal business is in operating E-commerce platforms, providing E-commerce software and services, and/or selling goods and services online". (emphasis added)

Sponsor's Website: E-commerce ETF

Top Ten Holdings as of 5/22:

Expense Ratio: .5%

Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ)-Morningstar (not rated)


M. Added $100 MCDFX at $15.4



Quote: MCDFX | Matthews China Dividend Fund: Investor Overview

Closing Price 5/29: MCDFX $15.23 -$0.07 -0.46% 

Current Position: 55+ shares

Average Cost per share: $15.2

Last DiscussedItem # 4.B. (4/11/20 Post)Item # 6.A. Added $50 to MCDFX at $14.43 (1/2/19 Post)Item # 1 (10/28/18 Post)


Last EliminationItem # 3 Eliminated MCDFX-Sold 111+ at $17.95 (4/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot: $315.95)

Dividends: Semi-annually at a variable rate
Top 10 Holdings as of 4/30/20:


MCDFX Realized Gains to Date: $1,137.78. The prior elimination snapshots can be found in Item # 4.B.

Sponsor's Website:  Overview-Matthews China Dividend Fund

I mentioned in my last post liquidating starter positions in two China funds: CHIQ (an ETF) and CHN (a CEF). This was due to China's recent efforts to tighten its rein on Hong Kong. Based on investor reaction over the past several days, including last Friday after I made this small add, it looks like the Stock Jocks have gotten over this development and may even view it positively, not based on considerations relating to freedoms, but on a future assessment of more stability. 


Trump taking action to eliminate special treatment for Hong Kong 

Last Friday, the ETF that owns HK stocks closed up: 

EWH $19.84 _+$0.10  +0.51%: iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index ETF I own 6 shares which I have not discussed here. 

3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy

A. Bought 2 Select Income 4.15% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/1/22:



FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Select Income was acquired by  Office Properties Income Trust (OPI)


2019 OPI Annual Report (see page F-27 for debt listings)


This bond is now an OPI obligation. 


Bought at a Total Cost of 98.027

YTM at TC = 5.293%
Current Yield at TC = 4.208%

On the day of this purchase, the two year treasury note closed at a .23% yield. So the premium for this bond over that year was slightly over 5% per annum using the YTM number.  


Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB- (lowest investment grade rating)


I did have 2 Select Income bonds mature earlier this year. I did not have much of a profit built into that one: 

                         

I am basically rolling over the proceeds into another short maturity. 

B. Bought 2 DuPont 3.766% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/15/20


FINRA Page: Bond  Detail

I discussed this purchase in a 4/2/20 comment.

I am running behind in discussing my bond purchases given the volume of purchases throughout March and into April. 

Prospectus

Issuer: DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD)


Bought at a Total Cost of 99.6

YTM at TC = 4.434%

Credit Ratings:






C. Bought 2 Kimco 3.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/21:


FINRA Page: Bond  Detail (prospectus linked)

I discussed this purchase in a 4/8/20 comment.

Issuer: Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM)


Website: Kimco Realty


2019 Annual Report


COVID-19 Update (4/2/20 SEC Filed Press Release)




Credit Ratings:

On the day of purchase, the Bond Ghouls were pricing this bond more in line with a BBB- credit rating.

Kimco Optional Redemption: KIM can redeem on or after 3/1/21 without making a make whole payment:


D. Bought 2 Sara Lee 4.1% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/1/20:



FIRNA Page: Bond Detail

Bought at Total Cost of 99.8 ($1 per bond commission)

YTM at 99.8 = 4.574%
Current Yield at 99.8 = 4.11%

This bond is now a Tyson Food's obligation. Tyson's senior unsecured debt is currently rated Baa2/BBB.


E. Sold 2 of 10 EBAY 3.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/15/20:

                       

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Profit Snapshot: $14.5




Item # 6.C. Bought 10 EBAY 3.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/15/20 at a TC of 99.525  (3/28/20 Post)

Sold at 100.350

Proceeds at 100.250
YTM at 100.250 = 2.244%

On the day that I sold this bond, Fidelity's third party service claimed the fair market value was 99.688 even though there have been a multitude of actual trades over par value over the prior week:


I sold those 2 bonds, without any difficulty, at 100.35:

F. Early Redemption Biogen Notes


I am receiving multiple early bond redemptions each week. Some redemptions were conditional on the issuer making a make whole payment which was the case for the Biogen bond. 



The principal amount was $4K with a $31.25 make whole payment. The accrued interest payment of $23.52, made with the redemption proceeds, was for a partial semi-annual period. The last semi-annual payment was made on 3/15/20. 

4. Intermediate Bond Basket Strategy

A. Bought 2 Lexington Realty 4.4% SU Maturing on 6/15/24




I now own 3 bonds. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)


Prospectus (subsidiaries are required to guarantee) 


Our Story | Lexington Realty Trust


Total Cost = 99.1 (with $2 commission)

YTM at 99.1 = 4.641%
Current Yield at TC = 4.44%

Issuer: Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)


LXP SEC Filings 


LXP 2019 Annual Report: 2018 and 2019 FFO Calculations 


Mortgages, senior unsecured notes and credit facility are discussed starting at page 75. 

4/14/2020 Covid-19 Update  


Lexington Realty Trust Reports First Quarter 2020 Results 


Lexington Realty Trust Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Shares (5/11/20)


Credit Ratings: 


Fitch rates the SU at BBB. Fitch Affirms Lexington Realty Trust at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable

I have repeatedly bought and sold the common stock but do not have a position now.


5. Cash Flow for Main Fidelity Account on 5/29 and 6/1/20

Fidelity will credit my account on a Saturday for dividend and interest payments payable on a Monday.

Municipal bonds trade in 5 bond lots. The dollar positions will consequently be larger than my average corporate bond position since those can be bought in 1 bond lots.  





The Sumner County GO is the largest bond position in the previous snapshots. I own 10. Item # 3.A. (7/5/17 Post) This bond is currently rated AA+ by S & P. 

My largest single bond positions are in AA+ or AAA rated Tennessee municipals. The following are two examples from the same Fidelity account: 


AAA Rated
AA+ Rated
The largest percentage gains would generally be 5 Municipal bond lots bought at a discount to par value. These Maury County GO bonds are examples from this Fidelity account: 



DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.

32 comments:

  1. Housing - there was something on CNBC about new house construction exceeding expectations and higher than Jan. That conflicts with the pending sales info. It was much higher year over year or since beginning of this year (I don't remember which or if it was both.) Totally surprising according to them. They had TOLL on as a guest for that segment.

    ----

    I don't understand the Cramer article at all. He's betting on at home tech stocks because they haven't been leading.

    BUT they HAVE been leading!

    His comment:
    "“Even though the mega-cap techs are in last place now, they’re the ones I’d bet [on] as people realize the economy looks a lot uglier once the stimulus goes away,” he added. “No, the FAANG stocks won’t win going away as usual, could be a photo finish, but they always own the homestretch.”

    I guess he means the meager lack of rapid gain in QQQ of the last week.

    ----

    His point about stimulus running out. There'll be another round of stimulus.

    On his point about Fed learning. This is working for now. But this isn't a "learned" economy and Fed. It was already a slow growing artificially low interest rate, with too much debt economy, before the virus.

    ----

    Does the term "consolidation" mean pullback to recent lows as money rotates into under invested sectors? Dryer uses that term.

    ---

    Ah that's what his ballot babble is about. It's not to limit ballots. It's to have an excuse when he loses.

    He'll leave office and form another TV program. He doesn't want to work so hard any more. But this gives him the excuse to be the victim.

    "'Once an authoritarian tastes power""

    He didn't know how to use authoritarian power on this scale until he was in office. He's been a quick learner. Very unfortunately.

    I'm just guessing here. But if it turns out worse, I won't be surprised.

    Chappelle wording is funny.

    Why have the mass shootings stopped?

    ----

    ""Can Air Conditioning Spread COVID-19? Here's What Experts Say The short answer is yes based on air flow patterns. ""

    So work at home should continue in many instances.


    ReplyDelete
  2. Land: As to housing, I referenced the National Association of Realtors report that new home sales declined 21.8% in April compared to March. Sales were down 33.9% compared to April 2019. It is my understanding that this report includes only existing home sales.

    CNBC was probably referring to new home sales which were up in April compared to March 2020, probably due to inactivity in the existing home sales market due to the pandemic.

    The new home sales report originated with the U.S. Census Department and is seasonally adjusted. April new home sales rose .6% above March 2020, but was down 6.2% from April 2019.

    https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

    ++
    I would use the word "consolidation" to mean a mostly sideways movement in SPX within a trading range.

    SPX pierced its 200 day SMA line last week to the upside. Using a 1 year chart, the 200 day SMA line closed last Friday at 3,001.

    The most recent channel was mostly between 2800 to 2950 starting about 4/14. The recent breakout in that channel has moved the upper end to 3050 so far.

    I would agree with Dwyer that SPX broke out of its trading range last week but am not willing to accept his recommendation to adopt a more offensive posture now. We are both referring to this article:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-stock-market-consolidation-as-china-tensions-rise-says-wall-street-bull-2020-05-29?mod=home-page

    Dwyer is referring to "bouts of consolidation" in a market that is trending up. Those bouts in his opinion may present buying opportunities.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Oh geez, I forgot that consolidation meant correction by staying in place over time. It's been so long since the market did something normal like that I forgot what the word meant.

    Dryers been pretty optimistic. I think at this point he's a little over enthused too.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Replies
    1. Land: The futures are down slightly now, an apparent reaction to the rioting and looting occurring across the country. I doubt that the Stocks Jocks will keep those events on their radar screen. Their herd opinion about the economy entering a V shaped recovery is all that really matters. If this future consensus belief becomes riddled with too many holes, and has to be abandoned, then the stampede will start to the downside. I do not view that as the likely future scenario.

      I recall vividly the race riots of 1964-1965 and 1968 after Martin Luther King was assassinated in Memphis.

      I visited my Uncle who was a professor at Pepperdine located in south L.A. (now in Malibu) in late August 1965. I was surprised my father allowed me to go by myself since there had just been a huge riot in Watts. I was allowed to leave Alabama for my first road trip to L.A.

      My Uncle took me on a tour of Watts, and I recall the devastation. The riot lasted for 6 days, resulting in 34 deaths, 1032 injuries and the destruction of 1000 buildings. It looked like an entire area of L.A. had been bombed.

      https://www.history.com/topics/1960s/watts-riots

      That one started with a white officer arresting a black man for reckless driving which escalated thereafter, though no one in that initial group was killed.

      I wanted to see what had happened, and have my uncle explain why. He was a sociology professor. I also wanted to see Sandy Koufax pitch for the L.A. Dodgers at their new stadium, finished in 1962, and to visit Disneyland and Universal Studios.

      Delete
    2. So at this point the V-shaped crowd has convinced you that they are very dedicated to their v-shape. They are wearing us all down - not on what we think, but on what we think they will think.

      I will buy the next dip even if small. I missed today's big nod to dipping. That lasted from 10-11am approximately. (sarcasm attempted.)

      Thanks for sharing your recollections. I was too young. I've been to museums of the DC riots at that time. The destruction was large there too. Whole business districts were wiped out and never recovered.

      It must have been something to see it firsthand.

      Those riots were different than this. Even the last set in Baltimore were different. The riot part appears to be mostly imported extremists in all directions and opportunistic looters.

      The original protestors were respectful. According to media they tended to go home at night. Then this other crowd and behavior took over.

      This will end. I didn't hear Trump's speech tonight. I saw some posts that it was morally depraved.

      I saw quotes of him "supporting peaceful protests." The same man who attacked and shamed taking a knee, which is peaceful.

      This article by George Wills is going around. He uses no gentle gloves.
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/no-one-should-want-four-more-years-of-this-taste-of-ashes/2020/06/01/1a80ecf4-a425-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html#comments-wrapper

      I had thought you meant Louisiana, until I got to the part about Dodgers. I am surprised your father let you go that far, at that time right after riots. He must have known the importance of witnessing and learning.

      Hopefully you got to the other locations and to see the Koufax and those were more upbeat than the rest.



      Delete
    3. Land: I was not old enough to drive yet, but I flew from Huntsville, Alabama to L.A. with a stopover in Houston by myself. The images from the aftermath of the August 1965 Watts riot is just seared into my memory.

      What is happening now is nowhere near as destructive.

      I saw a video this evening, where some guy in D.C. was chipping away at a sidewalk to secure projectiles to throw at police. The peaceful protestors grabbed him and turned him into nearby police.

      Trump is just aggravating the situation for his own political gain. His threat to use vicious dogs brought back another set of images to me, also going back to the mid-1960s, where the Birmingham, Alabama police chief, Bull Connor, set loose his vicious dogs on peaceful civil rights protestors.

      The phrase used by Donald, when the "looting starts, the shooting stars" was used first by a racist police chief in Miami and later by George Wallace in a speech. Donald reminds me of those people.


      I am mostly selling my highest cost lots into the rally now, though I am making some placeholder and small ball income buys.

      When the Stocks Jocks become convinced that something will happen in the future, like a V-shaped recovery in the second half, or something close to it, really bad data released today, this week, this month or even next month, will not convince them to question that future prediction. The only thing that will cause a reexamination is the arrival of the future into the present, unrecognizable compared to the Blue Sky forecast and irreconcilable to it.

      So everyone sort of knows now that the second quarter will see a real GDP decline close to 40% on an annualized basis. Unemployment will go over 20%, but everything will be just fine since the reopening push will be a big success. How does anyone prove that will not happen now?

      The median forecast for the May unemployment rate is currently at 19%. The next release is this Friday.
      https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar?link=MW_Nav_EP

      Delete
    4. That certainly sounds memorable. Especially going alone at that age. Sounds like a special trip in many ways.

      This isn't as bad as after Rodney King either. This seems to be looters and opportunists, rather than the main protestors. So there's less pure anger & destruction randomly targeting people & harming them that happened then, and more just bad behavior.

      I've been saying Russia's pushing the chaos to suit itself. Today there was some evidence of that with a FB group from one side pretending to be the other side (and something to do with Russia.)

      The news goes round and winds up in the same places it started... "Russia if you're listening" and "Mexicans are..." and other obscenities.

      I just saw this.
      https://twitter.com/holyapolygetics/status/1267892696229740545

      In other news, fish are flying and the stock market is headed to 6000 with record unemployment and chaos all around it.

      That made me smile. We appear to be in upside down land.

      -----

      I should be selling more I suppose. I don't have that much more I want to sell. I want to keep some core stuff or parts of it.

      It feels like I should be buying up a storm here with the market flying every day, so it's hard to sell. This market is high on a Fed punch bowl. I never was much of a drinker.

      FG labeled it now a bull, on 20 mo ma. But with decent risk of a 7-10% pullback. (or was it 15%).

      It's frustrating to know I haven't gotten my money back into the market to then relax and wait it out. And that I haven't made much in this mess. But that's how it is. I am learning. If there is another big event coming up in next few years, I'll be more savvy.

      VIX is down today. Yesterday it was up while the market was up. But today the options buyers are betting in "calm" direction too.

      PPL is nearly where I bought it. 29.87 and it's at 29.15. I'll probably sell as it gets to even and regret it. Div 6/9 for 1% (for the quarter).






      Delete
    5. Land: Opportunistic looting is what is happening at night. Large number of arrests are being made. I would expect the violence and looting to diminish over the next several days.

      None of the current troubles will have an impact on the stock market which does not care.

      I have a large inventory of stocks to sell into this rally.

      I am making minor adjustments as we move higher.

      I bought 100 MFC as part of a dividend harvest strategy, but will now keep that lot hoping for move over $15.

      Item # 2.D. Bought 100 MFC at $11.41:

      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/fieca-mfc-mnrprc-sca-scm-pba-pwcdf-scm.html

      I am selling highest cost lots into the rally. Today, I reduced my average cost in GOOD, discussed in this post, by selling my highest cost lots purchased with dividends and the highest cost lot purchased in the open market at $18.72. The effect was to reduce my average cost per share down to $14.14 and to increase my dividend yield to 10.42%. That is typical small ball.

      Gladstone Commercial Corp
      $18.66 +$0.61 +3.38%

      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/good

      A lot of highest cost lot selling is occurring in Roth IRA accounts where I did a lot of small ball buying during March.

      I am continuing to do small lot buying in depressed income stocks, though I am probably going to quit soon and switch to more small ball buying in double short ETFs.

      New purchases of CDs and treasuries are off the table given the low rates.

      I am not finding any $1K par value corporate bonds that I am willing to buy, though I will be discussing in subsequent posts bond buys during March and into April where I am almost caught up with my discussions.

      The stock market momentum is to the upside, and all bad news is being disregarded as unimportant, as if current and future developments over the next several weeks are mere past memories from a distant past best forgotten.

      The future will have to become the past with the hopes now evident in prices burned to a crisp. That is not to say that there will be no major down days. The dominant directional move has been up since early April.

      Delete
    6. VIX 25.66. Question is whether this is a bull that will go to less than 20. Then whether it's setting up a 3 month under 20 move to Stable VIX pattern. Or whether this is still in Unstable VIX mode, and it best to sell more then or short, & wait.

      I don't expect a 2nd wave of infections at any level enough to make this matter to the market. By fall, there will be some treatments, and mask measures will be helping a lot, and vaccine news will be closer to success.

      I remember the consensus or polling that 70% of investors are Republicans. (Going back to pre-party of Trump.)

      Is that accurate?

      If so, and the elections go for Dems, this market will do the opposite of it's reaction to Trump's election.

      I bought some on the way down. One mistake is getting skittish and selling up the way up, instead of simply holding for recovery even if 2-3 years out. Then buying more if it had been a bear rally.

      Delete
    7. I am suspecting there is some "Opportunistic looting" happening during the day... in the market.

      Delete
    8. Land: Historically, it has not made that much difference which political tribe controls the White House and/or Congress. If I did not already know the answer, I could not determine which political party was in power by just looking at a long term SPX chart. Perhaps shared control works best for the market, since the logjam creates inaction and nothing of consequence is done to harm the economy.

      The VIX has been in a downtrend since its parabolic spike during March, closing today at 25.66. I expect that it will move back below 20 this month. My best guess is that would provide an opportunity to lighten up for those who bought the volatility event in March, as I did, but I am selling some of my higher cost lots already. If I had to guess, I would expect a few days or weeks below 20 and then another spike up consistent with the Unstable Vix Pattern.

      I view the rise now as a bit goofy. The economy was stagnant or barely growing before Covid-19 hit. SPX was overvalued IMO before Covid-19 hit and now the major market averages are back to February levels (though not above the highest point) as if nothing has happened.

      So I am selling and preparing for the next downdraft in a variety of ways. I did pick up slightly the $ amounts of double ETF short purchases today, though the totals are light years below immaterial for me.

      I am buying some placeholders that will remind me what to buy in wave buying programs. Several of these are new ones that have been selected based on their bungee jumping characteristics (fast recovery to new highs after being splashed in March)

      For new purchases, I am trying out some covered call ETFs and CEFs. Those funds generate additional income through call writing.

      An example would be Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF which only gained 2 cents or .1% today. The problem is that the call writing is a drag on quick and power up moves.

      52 WEEK RANGE
      17.22 - 24.18
      YIELD 11.28%
      EX-DIVIDEND DATE
      May 18, 2020
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qyld

      I now have to replace the windshield wiper on my 1987 Mercedes which is in mint condition. This will probably not be an easy task for me.

      Delete
    9. My thought and question on whether % of investor lean towards GOP wasn't about how the market would do economically.

      My question is looking for info on the emotional state of investors. If they lean GOP, then there may be an initial reaction. That would be opportunity that I feel like I've missed now.

      The goofiness of the rise, feeds into the reason for this question. There's a lot driven by some emotion now certainly over valuations. So why not look at the emotion around the politics? Probably will be a factor too...

      I should have waited for VIX under 20 to sell. But it so didn't look like that would ever happen. For a patient person, turns out I need more patience.

      Never played with covered call ETFs. I am authorized to do level 0 options on my account, i.e covered & funded. I'm not working much on finding stuff this week. I have a goal of tasks around my house, so that I can be happier to just have the done. So far, not made much progress.

      In my experience windshield wipes are tough. I've replaced the windshield linkage on a car. And the wiper motor (that was easy, 3 bolts near the outer surface.) But have more than once given up and taken my wipers and car to the auto store to let them install them. Much luck with the calisthenics required to get those things on!

      Delete
    10. Land: I do not know the percentages, but individual stock ownership is concentrated in the top 10% who tend to vote republican.

      As I recall, the FED and Gallup do surveys of stock ownership. Generally, around 40% to 50% of American adults do not own any stocks including in a retirement accounts. If you strip out those who have relatively small stock amounts in retirement accounts, what remains is the top 10% with that concentrated in the top 1%. My guess is that 80% of the top 1% will be voting for Trump.

      There is a narrative that Trump is good for the economy that is shared among republicans. Shiller has talked about how that narrative has powered stocks higher.

      Before the coronavirus triggered the recession, he made the following comments:

      https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/20/shiller-recession-likely-years-away-due-to-bullish-trump-effect.html


      I think that story feeds supports for the enthusiasm among those investors. And, stock investors are willing to accept rosy scenarios about the future and can not be dissuaded by negative news in the near term. This has work out for them longer term, although they will be punished severely from time to time by not paying much attention to the negatives.

      One of the most important supports for stocks is low inflation and extremely low interest rates, not only currently, but anticipated for many years to come. When the outlook is for low interest rates until the end of days, only a slight exaggeration for the current forecast, then that is even a more material support for stock prices.

      What can change that support is a non-temporary rise in inflation and inflation expectations that forces central banks to raise rates and to abandon their suppression of interest rates below the inflation rate.

      I do not trade options. I will nibble from time to time on stock funds that use a covered call strategy.

      Delete
    11. I think I should read more Shiller.

      If inflation starts to show, I need to add that to a list of BIG signals to tighten up and wait for better entries.

      I found some more indices to sell. SPY QQQ. Still missed the top in pre-hours but yesterday was so much higher than before.

      I'm having trouble selling off, emotionally. It's feeling noise bleedy and I tend to numb out at those points rather than sell.

      I forgot that Vang extended hours is in evening only. Normally it doesn't matter at all. I'll like to be selling a little right now. Put in orders for during the day.

      Thinking about selling out my 27 shares of TXN. It's make a tax event. 30% up. Though now 29% today.

      (Wrote this pre-hours. Guess I never hit send.)




      Delete
    12. Land: My buying and selling using the small ball strategy is disciplined and more mechanical than thoughtful and utterly devoid of emotion.

      This kind of strategy is primarily about risk control. The decline in March was bought and now I am selling my highest cost lots into strength.

      I pared this week for example my highest cost SLG lots.


      SL Green Realty Corp.
      $51.94 +$0.79 +1.54%
      ast Updated: Jun 4, 2020 at 11:13 a.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/slg

      The stock went ex dividend for its $.295 per share monthly dividend last week.

      I continued to buy at lower prices after my last discussion, with the lowest cost lot purchased at $35.5.

      My average cost per share now is down to $40.99 and increases my dividend yield to 8.64%.

      That is indicative of what I am doing.

      Delete
    13. I want to ask a little more on the strategy which I have been trying to simulate. Such as whether the rebuy low is below the sales price, or below the lowest price last bought at, even though market is rising and those lower prices aren't reappearing. However, i will wait to phrase a question after I'm more focused. (Lack of sleep last night.)

      I sold a bunch yesterday. SPY, IWM, VYM, PPL the day before, I need to figure out what.

      So now it looks once again like way too soon.

      I was going to buy back in lower into all of it. But it's already well past catching it even a little lower.

      The VYM sale is unusual. I bought in Feb 2018 at 83. Have another lot bought at 87. Right before the crisis, it's moved up to 94. But these two have seemed very high entry points for a while. I got out even on the 83 batch but with gain of divs for the last couple years. (I'll probably mark it over the weekend as selling the 87 batch for tax purposes.)

      Delete
    14. Land: The small ball strategy is primarily designed as a risk mitigation one.

      It required me to keep buying throughout March and into April, using what I call "wave buying" a lot. Wave buying is going through an account, starting at the top, and buying a few shares of most stocks and stock funds that are currently owned. It is a forced buying strategy.

      I also established new positions where I would average down. In several days during March, there would be several buys of the same stock during the day since the price just kept falling. Many days had over 100 different buy trades.

      The process is being reversed now by selling highest cost lots and eliminating some positions.

      I will be discussing in posts that will be published over the next month or so some regional bank and BDC purchases. Some were averaging down on existing positions, while others were newly added stocks.

      The buying restrictions in small ball are either each lot has to be at the lowest price in the chain or each purchase has to reduce my average cost per share. Choosing between one or the other depends on a risk/reward assessment, dividend safety, the dominant trend in the market, and other consideration. The dominant trend down will lead me to favor the more restrictive version since I do not know how low a stock will go.

      Those restrictions restrain chasing and are capital preservation motivated restrictions.

      Looking back on March, I added around $100K to my stock allocation and I would have been better off adding $2M. But that is not how I judge success in managing my portfolio given my financial objectives. If I had $2M in SPY during March, I would have been down over $600K. I may have preferred breathing multiple vials of Covid-19 to living through that kind of experience.

      Delete
  5. I doubt that the slight SPX decline at the open is a response to the unrest. The more likely cause is news reports that China has told state firms to cease buying U.S. soybeans and pork.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agriculture/china-asks-state-firms-to-halt-purchases-of-us-soybeans-pork-say-sources-idUSKBN238264

    Normally, I do not listen to CNBC, but I had it own for a few minutes this morning, long enough to hear Jim Cramer call Donald's statements about China last Friday as "statesman like". I turned off the TV after that statement which struck me as ridiculous but typical spiel from a Trumpster. Donald accused China of worldwide mass murder last Friday which he did for domestic political reasons. And he decided to terminate U.S. funding for WHO during a worldwide pandemic for the same reason.

    Pfizer (PFE) is contributing to the slight DJIA decline after its drug Ibrance failed in a breast cancer trial.

    Pfizer Inc. $35.41 -$2.78 -7.28%
    Last Updated: Jun 1, 2020 9:48 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pfe

    https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-s-ibrance-misses-shot-at-big-new-market-early-breast-cancer-failure

    I own just 6 PFE shares at an average cost per share of $29.43. I am in a hold posture at the current price. I am using the small ball purchase restriction which means my next buy, if any, has to be below $28.4 (3/23/20 buy)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have Cramer on in the morning to fill the time. For some reason their usual crowd isn't all there. I can't listen to him in the morning. On his own show I'll take a min here or there.

      No that was not "statesman like."

      I've stopped reacting to most of Trump's behaviors. I listen to nearly none. What I learn of, I mentally respond to with "get out the vote."

      I really don't want a one party gov't. The Dems aren't the end all and be all. But this has to stop. The GOP no longer exists. Whatever this slime is from Senate to WH, to Russia, it has to go.

      I debated about buying PFE while down 8%. There may be a pullback soon with better opportunity. This may linger or worsen. I watched this dive and not recover well since last year. So I passed for the moment. Glad I lucked into getting out at the $38+ climb.

      I've sold profit making shares into the rallies. I haven't sold losers. I've debated on selling those at loses for the next leg down. Problem is that'd be timing for a leg down and so far, no evidence of legs or even toes, on the horizon.

      There were two vaccine research announcements. The market didn't fly on them. So maybe that type of news is getting a more circumspect reaction by now.

      Geez, I forgot. I need to sell some SPX in the 401k on the next big close up.





      Delete
  6. Power Corp. of Canada
    C$23.90 +C$0.72 +3.11%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pow?countrycode=ca

    I discussed this stock in Item # 1.

    Given the recent pop in this stock, I decided to change my plan discussed in this post.

    Instead of waiting until the stock goes ex dividend on 6/29, and then selling 50 shares of the USD price ordinary shares PWCDF, I decided to continue paring my 130 PWCDF shares by selling 10 shares, with each sell being at a price higher than my last one.

    I consequently sold 10 PWCDF at US$$17.72 this morning.

    The financial websites will show yesterday's closing price for many U.S. pink sheet exchange traded stocks which is the case for the quote now.

    Power Corp. of Canada (PWCDF)
    $17.11 +US$0.96 +5.94%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pwcdf

    $17.11 was yesterday's closing price. The stock is up today, tracking the higher price for the ordinary shares traded in Canada.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'm running out of what to sell.

    I wonder if this rally is part because of the speed of the downturn. It was so fast, that even experienced investors didn't have a huge sense or a few days to ponder getting in. Therefore maybe there is less money to sell into the rally. Which in turn doesn't slow it down.

    On the virus, because of the closure there's simply less spread. So while people are now in contact, there simply are less with covid to spread it. Add summer or sunshine that kills it, that may help. Masks, and more susceptible are at home, and more of the gatherings are outside.

    This could still heat up. But it's possible we won't see wild increases, because so much was, scrubbed out of the infection chain by locking down.

    My philosophical thoughts of the day. Now I need to go eat dessert (fruit).

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stock futures are up strongly based on a surprising jobs report for May:

    BLS Press release:
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


    "U.S. regains 2.5 million jobs in May, BLS says, and unemployment falls to 13.3% in shockingly upbeat report"

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-regains-25-million-jobs-in-may-bls-says-and-unemployment-falls-to-133-in-shockingly-upbeat-report-2020-06-05?mod=mw_latestnews

    The consensus forecast was for a 19% unemployment rate and a 7.25M job loss.

    I am suspicious of this report's accuracy, but that suspicion is irrelevant in how the markets will react to it.

    E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
    3,159.00 48.50 1.56%
    Last Updated: Jun 5, 2020 at 7:45 a.m. CDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures?mod=home-page

    Bonds are reacting negatively, which is to be expected.

    The U-6 number for May was reported at 21.2%, down only slightly from 22.8% in April.

    See "U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force"
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

    ReplyDelete
  9. I will be interested to see how economists try to reconcile the BLS jobs report with the ADP report released earlier this week.

    ADP reported that private sector jobs declined by an estimated 2,760,000 in May. ADP does not measure state, local and federal government jobs but only private payrolls.

    The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics includes both government and private payrolls.

    The BLS claimed that government jobs declined by 585,000 in May. So without that decline, BLS would have the May private payrolls at +3.085 M compared to ADP's number of -2.76M.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From an economic pt of view, the lost jobs "didn't count" because the stimulus was making up for them.

      So adding *back* furrowed jobs, and new hires for certain companies, was theoretically already in these prices.

      So to be consistent in thinking... this *must* be projecting that this shows all will get to normal. And not a reaction to what is already priced into expectation.

      I keep thinking if this is what 1999 and 2007 felt like, during exuberance. Or if this is simply appropriate to learning that the world isn't ending after all.

      Delete
    2. Land: I do not view the reaction today to be rational, but it does not have to be rational, nor does it have to make any sense to me.

      The BLS jobs report is believed and the ADP is discounted as irrelevant, since one fits nicely into the V shaped recovery scenario and the other does not.

      Prior to this week, the narrative was that the FED would be on hold onto the end of days and that was supportive for stocks.

      Now, the narrative is that interest rates may not remain near zero forever, and the FF may even be raised next year, but that does not matter since the rise in interest rates is due to an improving economy.

      I am eliminating some positions today where I had to average down multiple times. An example is VTR where I sold 57+ shares today at $43.42 realized a net profit of close to $100. I got rid of some shares at a loss.

      Ventas Inc.
      $43.33 +$ 2.15 +5.22%
      Last Updated: Jun 5, 2020 1:02 p.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vtr

      Given my capital preservation objective, I do not care for having to average down, and then average down again and again.


      Item # 2.A. Added 5 VTR at $46; 5 at $41.7; 5 at $38; 2 at $31.96, 3 at $29; 2 at $26.87; 2 at $ 26; 2 at $22.48; 1 at $21; 1 at $19.2; 1 at $18; 1 at 16 and 1 at $14.28 :
      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/aresf-ddt-duk-fax-gis-igr-k-mspra-opini.html

      QQQ is lagging SPY's gain today as banks and energy stocks outperform the growth names.

      SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
      $45.03 +$2.915 +6.92%
      Last Updated: Jun 5, 2020 at 1:05 p.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre


      The narrative in March, which was believed with near certainty, was that the banks would suffer loan losses almost as bad as 2008 and would have to slash their quarterly dividends to a 1 cent per share again. This narrative about the future resulted in 50% to 70% declines in regional bank stocks over a month or so.

      Now, the narrative is that loan losses will be manageable and dividends will remain constant this year or possibly raise a bit for some of them.

      These narratives about the future are priced at near 100% certainty when the future is uncertain. The narrative can turn on a dime but the momentum is to the upside for now.

      Delete
  10. South Gent,

    The market is moving so much and so fast. Besides a global pandemic and a geopolitical oil crisis it must have something to do with this being an election year.

    I will have to (gladly) close my SDS position soon as it has already lost over 10% since I bought it on 5/22.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Y2000 - FOX polling was shown on MSNBC last night as not good for Trump including in key states. So it's not likely moving up on excitement about his potential to be voted in.

      VIX moves up on an up day - a few days ago, to me says there are plenty of shorts being put in place. So if there is a down, it will be followed by a short squeeze.

      Come to think of it, I wonder how much current buying is covering for shorts put on during the last few weeks or month?

      Delete
    2. Y. I doubt that the uptrend since March is due to the election. The first leg was due to the massive U.S. fiscal and monetary stimulus.

      The second leg is gaining traction with similar stimulus from the ECB and European governments that is lagging the U.S. response.

      The narrative that is believed with conviction is the U.S. will experience a V shaped recovery.

      Any news, like the jobs report released by the BLS today, that confirms that narrative is given great weight, while negative news is dismissed as past history.

      The market is forward looking; and a firm belief in the Blue Sky scenario leads the Stock Jocks to push the second quarter recession into the history books as something that is best forgotten or classified as irrelevant.

      I bought 1 share of SDS today which is how I playing that one. I have an unrealized loss now of about $150.

      Delete
  11. I get it. The recession does not exist. Covid-19 never happened. And everything is back to where it was in February, maybe even better after a another day like today.

    NASDAQ Composite Index
    9,814.08 +198.27 +2.06%
    52 WEEK RANGE 6,631.42-9,845.69

    As I mentioned earlier, the VIX is likely IMO to return to below 20 movement this month.

    CBOE Volatility Index
    24.52 -1.29 -5.00%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix

    Today was another selling day for me.

    Even if I accept the BLS jobs report as being accurate within a narrow range, which I do not, conditions are still dismal and only improving from more dismal levels.

    While this is antidotal, I was thinking of eating out tonight at a local meat and three. I checked on the internet before leaving later this afternoon and discovered it had closed down for good. I checked on another one, and it had closed for good as well.

    There will be a lot of small businesses that will not reopen. Even businesses that do reopen will probably have fewer employees and revenues until conditions really do return to normal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ""I get it. The recession does not exist.""

      By George apparently you have it.

      Bankruptcies would trigger a reaction. The small-tiny companies going out, aren't reported in a way that gets attention.

      There's a restaurant near my parents that's been there for so many years. A real favorite. They closed. May not be covid, but there was no indication they were planning to close.

      I sold 15 more INTC at 64.82
      Sold 2 LMT at 413. It'd been struggling at 400 before now.

      Mostly I should buy on way down, then hold and really hold until stable VIX mode. That's likely the most profitable method. I've have one reason for selling.

      1) Take some profits on high runners. Danger is missing more of the run. Which has happened. Advantage is if it's popped over temporary factors - such as tech is a covid favorite - it's taking some profits that probably will decline and not be seen again. Plans are to buy back lower. If that's every seen.

      Seems like a big risk with this rally that I may not be able to, and will have to wait to buy until a stable vix market.

      2) I'm also selling some because: I bought too soon on the way down and have been anxious not to be stuck in. I suspect that's a poor reason because it assumes there'll be a chance to get in lower below the point that the market's recovered to. It's reducing risk for a future down that there's no indication will happen. It makes more sense in the model where a double bottom or lower is likely coming.

      It's a way to raise cash for any future down. But I have enough cash already.


      Delete
  12. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/06/cio-ciopra-dea-emaprcca-fisi-glw-gmre.html

    ReplyDelete