Economy:
Higher gas and food prices trigger first increase in U.S. consumer inflation in 4 months - MarketWatch
Consumer Price Index Summary
New unemployment claims rose 1.3M for the week ending 7/11.
Unemployment claims have topped 1M per week for 16 straight weeks. Weekly jobless claims
The federal government reported that retail sales rose 7.5% in June.
"Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter as a whole, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after World War II." The Fed - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17 (emphasis added)
China economy: Beijing reports Q2 2020 GDP of +3.25% (consensus estimate at 2.5%) The first quarter contracted by 6.8% compared to the 2019 first quarter.
New unemployment claims rose 1.3M for the week ending 7/11.
Unemployment claims have topped 1M per week for 16 straight weeks. Weekly jobless claims
The federal government reported that retail sales rose 7.5% in June.
"Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter as a whole, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after World War II." The Fed - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17 (emphasis added)
China economy: Beijing reports Q2 2020 GDP of +3.25% (consensus estimate at 2.5%) The first quarter contracted by 6.8% compared to the 2019 first quarter.
U.S. slaps French goods with 25% duties in digital tax row, but delays effective date - Reuters (holds off implementing tariffs for up to 180 days)
McConnell: No recovery bill without lawsuit protections for 'everyone related to the coronavirus'
Home prices could fall in cities across the U.S. as Americans sour on urban living, says famed economist Robert Shiller - MarketWatch
Trump says he's "not interested" in talking to China about trade - CBS News
I discussed the news about Moderna's vaccine development in a 7/15/20 comment. First data for Moderna Covid-19 vaccine show an immune response - STAT
July Empire State index in positive territory for first time since pandemic began - MarketWatch; Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Home prices could fall in cities across the U.S. as Americans sour on urban living, says famed economist Robert Shiller - MarketWatch
Trump says he's "not interested" in talking to China about trade - CBS News
I discussed the news about Moderna's vaccine development in a 7/15/20 comment. First data for Moderna Covid-19 vaccine show an immune response - STAT
July Empire State index in positive territory for first time since pandemic began - MarketWatch; Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Coronavirus pandemic could get much, much worse, according to this health expert - MarketWatch
Schumer says McConnell and Republicans refuse to meet with Democrats on stimulus as GOP proposal looms
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Nasdaq stocks led by Tesla continue their blistering run while chill envelops rest of the market (7/11/20, written by Michael Santoli)
This strategist says investors are in the ‘forest of make believe’ when it comes to growth stocks - MarketWatch
Voices of Pimco past: Gross, El-Erian warn against growth stocks -Seeking Alpha
'Fear' is rising in the stock-market and so is 'dumb money' confidence as tech stocks reach an inflection point - MarketWatch
Not extending $600 unemployment benefit 'would be a catastrophe,' say former Fed Chairs Bernanke and Yellen
Donald gave $1.6B to Novavax to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. I previously discussed the failure of Novavax over the past 33 years to bring a vaccine to market. How Novavax Won $1.6 Billion From Operation Warp Speed For Coronavirus Vaccine - The New York Times
Voices of Pimco past: Gross, El-Erian warn against growth stocks -Seeking Alpha
'Fear' is rising in the stock-market and so is 'dumb money' confidence as tech stocks reach an inflection point - MarketWatch
Not extending $600 unemployment benefit 'would be a catastrophe,' say former Fed Chairs Bernanke and Yellen
Donald gave $1.6B to Novavax to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. I previously discussed the failure of Novavax over the past 33 years to bring a vaccine to market. How Novavax Won $1.6 Billion From Operation Warp Speed For Coronavirus Vaccine - The New York Times
++++++
Trump:
President Trump has made more than 20,000 false or misleading claims since his inauguration- The Washington Post
{This bears constant repetition since it sums up one of the nations's long term and probably unsolvable problems: National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 Question 11: 81% of republicans say Trump is Honest}
Steve Schmidt: Trump Must Be Defeated Or U.S. 'Will Be In An Irreversible Decline'- YouTube
Last week, Demagogue Don gave a 45 minute vituperative and delusional harangue in the Rose Garden, which will need to be fumigated when he vacates the office. Trump offers denial and delusion as pandemic crisis overtakes his presidency Some of Donalds reality creations include the following: (1) Biden will “incentivize illegal alien child smuggling”, "abolish immigration enforcement," "abolish our police departments, "abolish our prisons, I guess," (2) Biden's energy plan means "basically means no windows" in homes and offices by 2030; and (3) the Democrats are "calling for defunding our military". Those are just some of the highlights. Remarks by President Trump in Press Conference | The White House; The White House Called a News Conference. Trump Turned It Into a Meandering Monologue. - The New York Times
Trump is out-of-control. Don the Authoritarian has instructed the Treasury to reexamine the "tax-exempt status ...and/or funding" of "universities and school systems" that, he said, "are about Radical Left Indoctrination, not Education." Trump targets tax-exempt status for schools, universities
Fact-checking the White House's statement announcing Roger Stone's commutation - CNNPolitics
President Trump has made more than 20,000 false or misleading claims since his inauguration- The Washington Post
{This bears constant repetition since it sums up one of the nations's long term and probably unsolvable problems: National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 Question 11: 81% of republicans say Trump is Honest}
Steve Schmidt: Trump Must Be Defeated Or U.S. 'Will Be In An Irreversible Decline'- YouTube
Last week, Demagogue Don gave a 45 minute vituperative and delusional harangue in the Rose Garden, which will need to be fumigated when he vacates the office. Trump offers denial and delusion as pandemic crisis overtakes his presidency Some of Donalds reality creations include the following: (1) Biden will “incentivize illegal alien child smuggling”, "abolish immigration enforcement," "abolish our police departments, "abolish our prisons, I guess," (2) Biden's energy plan means "basically means no windows" in homes and offices by 2030; and (3) the Democrats are "calling for defunding our military". Those are just some of the highlights. Remarks by President Trump in Press Conference | The White House; The White House Called a News Conference. Trump Turned It Into a Meandering Monologue. - The New York Times
Trump is out-of-control. Don the Authoritarian has instructed the Treasury to reexamine the "tax-exempt status ...and/or funding" of "universities and school systems" that, he said, "are about Radical Left Indoctrination, not Education." Trump targets tax-exempt status for schools, universities
Fact-checking the White House's statement announcing Roger Stone's commutation - CNNPolitics
Romney blasts Trump's Stone commutation: 'Historic corruption' | TheHill
Mueller breaks his silence to defend Russia investigation and Stone prosecution In Trump's America, Roger Stone is the victim after a jury found, beyond a reasonable doubt, that he committed multiple felonies. Trump Commutes Sentence of Roger Stone on 7 Felony Crimes - The New York Times
Twelve signs Trump would try to run a fascist dictatorship in a second term - The Washington Post If Donald loses, he will claim voter fraud and may not leave office voluntarily.
He has been preparing the Trumpsters to actively resist a loss for months now. This is just one of many examples:
Demagogue Don's false statements and narratives, no matter how preposterous, are easily sold to, and accepted by millions of republicans.
Trump impeachment witness Vindman retires from Army;Key impeachment witness Vindman retires from the Army, citing Trump 'bullying, intimidation, and retaliation' Trump interfered in Vindman's expected promotion to full Colonel in retaliation for his Ukraine testimony during the impeachment proceedings. Vindman decided to retire in response to Trump's retaliation. There are serious negative consequences for telling the truth in Trump's America.
Trump's Baseless Attacks on Times, Post Reporting on Russia Probe - FactCheck.org
Donald is not able to watch Fox "news" anymore after the network managed to report some accurate information about the pandemic:
Trump presses tax records fight with Manhattan DA after Supreme Court loss Trump's lawyers will now attempt to delay the production of his tax returns and supporting documents, raising a barrage of frivolous claims. Trump obviously does not want independent third parties looking at his tax records and that alone explains why he has refused to publicly release his returns as other candidates and Presidents have done in the past. Donald will not be able to withstand that kind of scrutiny, and he knows it. Two in three Americans want to see Trump's tax returns, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows - Reuters
Donald ousted his campaign manager, replacing him with Bill Stepien whose claim to fame was his involvement in the Bridgegate scandal. Stepien is a good fit for Donald. Bill Stepien was ousted over Bridgegate. Now he’s in charge of Trump’s reelection campaign.
Donald was asked by Sean Hannity what he hoped to accomplish in his second term. The comedian, Sarah Cooper, who mimics Trump's exact words, released this video of Doofus Don's response: How to second term - YouTube
She also recently released a video of the Duck explaining the differences between his immigration policies and those of Obama/Biden: How to immigration policy - YouTube
Links to some recent Lincoln Project videos: Story Hour - YouTube; Walk of Courage - YouTube
Billionaire Democrats and small-dollar donors help fuel anti-Trump Lincoln Project ("The group started July with more than $10 million in available cash")
Mary Trump on whether she ever heard the president use a racial slur: 'Of course I did'
Trump Doesn't Want To Be 'Distracted' By Pandemic Adviser Tells WAPO | The 11th Hour-YouTube
+++++
Covid-19 Updates:
 |
| As of 7/17/20 |
Trump has made it clear from the onset that he would not issue a nationwide mask wearing mandate and has no intention of doing so now. Trump says he won't issue national mask mandate Why? The republican base is opposed to it.
Trump has shamed those wearing a mask and has encouraged active resistance to efforts by state and local governments to control the pandemic's spread. He is pandering to the republican base and has been doing so regardless of the health impacts on the national population.
What the U.S. has accomplished is to severely damage the economy and people's livelihoods in exchange for a pandemic that is still out-of-control.
The Coronavirus Can Float in Indoor Air, W.H.O. Concedes
U.S. shatters coronavirus record with over 77,000 cases in a day last Thursday - Reuters Deaths were reported at 943 that day. US coronavirus: More than 940 deaths reported in one day
Can kids spread COVID-19? Conclusively, without a doubt, Yes: USA Today
White House press secretary: 'The science should not stand in the way of' schools fully reopening
Almost one-third of Florida children tested are positive for the coronavirus | TheHill
White House blocks CDC from testifying on reopening schools next week
A recent study by Lancet found that contract tracing becomes useless to control the spread when test results take 3 or more days. There are just too many people to contact who may themselves already spread the disease to others. Testing delays of a week or more are now common in the U.S..The Lancet Public Health: Speed of testing is most critical factor in the success of contact tracing strategies to slow COVID-19 transmission | -Science News The U.S. has failed in both testing and contact tracing, with no signs het that those issues are being resolved five months into the pandemic.
Patient Dies After Going to 'COVID Party,' Thought It Was a Hoax: Official
The republican governor of Oklahoma, who attended Donald's Mass Infection in Tulsa, reported that he has Covid-19. Oklahoma governor tests positive for coronavirus after hosting Trump rally - POLITICO
The republican governor of Georgia has banned local governments from requiring mask wearing. Georgia bans cities and counties from requiring masks
Georgia governor Brian Kemp (R) Sues Atlanta over mask orders
Brian Kemp rode to victory in Georgia with this campaign ad: So Conservative - YouTube It has to be seen to be believed.
Fauci calls White House effort to discredit him 'bizarre,' a mistake
The Role of Cognitive Dissonance in the Pandemic - The Atlantic ("Human beings are deeply unwilling to change their minds. And when the facts clash with their preexisting convictions, some people would sooner jeopardize their health and everyone else’s than accept new information or admit to being wrong.")
Coronavirus autopsies: Small vessel blood clotting found in patients, pathologist says
Doctor Don, M.D. and Phd in B.S, knows more about infectious diseases than Dr. Fauci.White House seeks to discredit Fauci amid coronavirus surge
California to close indoor restaurants, movie theaters and bars statewide as coronavirus cases rise
Doctor Don retweeted this claim that the Media, the Democrats, the CDC, and many doctors were telling "outrageous lies" in order to hurt Donald's reelection efforts:
Chuck Woolery says 'everyone is lying' about coronavirus, then reveals son's COVID-19 diagnosis
Tucker Carlson lashes out at those who exposed his top writer's racist posts - MarketWatch Carlson routinely draws more than 4 million people to his Fox "news"1 hour vituperative hyperbole and reality creation show that is broadcast during the prime evening time spot. "My Pillow" is his prime sponsor. ‘Our president gave us so much hope’: MyPillow CEO goes off script at coronavirus briefing - POLITICO
43 coronavirus cases have been linked to one large house party in Michigan
Orange County school board votes for kids to return to school without requiring social distancing, masks The County's Chief Medical Officer, Nicole Quick, resigned after receiving death threats for issuing a mandatory mask order. O.C. Chief Health Officer Dr. Nichole Quick resigns amid mask controversy, threats – Orange County Register
Many republicans believe that they have a constitutional right to do whatever they want and to transmit infectious diseases without taking any precautions. Perhaps they would agree to wear a flashing warning light on their heads rather than a mask.
The Texas republicans were very upset that the Houston Mayor cancelled their indoor Mass Infection Event, appealing the Mayor's order all the way to the Texas Supreme Court That Court denied the Texas republicans the opportunity to spread Covid-19 through a mass indoor gathering. Texas GOP votes to move convention online after legal defeat at Supreme Court - HoustonChronicle.com
'Alarming outbreak' of Covid-19 spreads through DHS training facility
Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data - The New York Times Donald will collect the information rather than the CDC. Maybe the data will be released to the CDC at some point. There are people who believe that the data will not be altered before it is sent to the CDC, assuming that occurs. Doctor weighs in on Trump administration stripping CDC of control of COVID-19 data - YouTube
How Trump has undercut the CDC on coronavirus - YouTube
Study: Hydroxychloroquine fails to show benefit in mild coronavirus cases - MarketWatch (7/16/20)
Hydroxychloroquine studies show drug is not effective for early treatment of mild covid-19
++++
Trump and his wingman Sean Hannity are both demagogues. Sean Hannity says if Joe Biden wins the election, "America as you know it, we know it, will be destroyed" | Media Matters for America
The Fox "news" personalities are pulling out all of the stops in their campaign to reelect Donald for another 4 year term.
Kansas Congressman Steve Watkins (R) charged with voter fraud - CBS News Watkins has been endorsed by Donald and Pence and is a honorary Co-Chairman of the Trump campaign. This is a competitive district. Watkins won in 2018 by 2,199 votes. The republican primary is on 8/4/20.
Head of NYPD union gives Fox News interview with QAnon mug in background
++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Bought 100 MIN at $3.85; 100 at $3.8; 100 at $3.73:
Closing Price 7/17/20: MIN $3.7800 -$0.05 -1.31%
I mentioned the first 100 share purchase in a 6/11/20 comment.
Sponsor's website: MIN: MFS® Intermediate Income Trust
SEC Filings
Holdings as of 1/31/20
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 10/31/19)
 |
| As of 10/31/19 |
The dividend has substantial ROC support.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/14/20 (all shares owned as of )
Data Date of 6/11/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.04
Closing Market Price: $3.87
Discount: -4.21%
Data Date of 6/25/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.03
Closing Market Price: $3.79
Discount: -5.96
Data Date of 6/26/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.03
Closing Market Price: $3.73
Discount: -7.44%
Sourced from MFS® Intermediate Income-CEF Connect
Maximum Position: 1000 Shares (all accounts)
I currently own 200 shares in my Fidelity taxable account and shares in ROTH IRA accounts.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase in this account must reduce my average cost per share.
2. Bought 100 SWZ at $7.92:
Closing Price 7/17: SWZ $8.10 +$0.02 +0.25%
Sponsor's Website: SWZ Fund - Schroders
SEC Filings
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 12/31/19)(total cost of investments = $107.224+M; Value at $128.863+M)
SEC Filing: Holdings as of 3/31/20
Data Date of 6/9/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $9.5
Closing Market Price: $7.9
Discount: -16.84%
Sourced: SWZ CEF Connect
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Dividends: The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. Declares Quarterly Distribution of $0.1404 Per Share
The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. Announces Details Of $4.91 per share Stock Dividend Payable On October 19, 2018
The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. Announces Final Results Of One-time Cash Tender Offer (4/26/17)
Top 10 Holdings:
A. Started IRBO-Bought 5 at $28.7:
Quote: IRBO | iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/17: IRBO $30.83 +$0.29 +0.95%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF | IRBO
Expense Ratio: .47%
Dividends: Quarterly and Negligible
Top 20 Holdings:
Closing Price 7/17: IRBO $30.83 +$0.29 +0.95%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF | IRBO
Expense Ratio: .47%
Dividends: Quarterly and Negligible
Website: HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Closing Price 7/17: HTA $26.68 +$0.73 +2.81%
HTA is a REIT that owns medical office buildings.
Portfolio Overview - HTA (465 MOBs with 24.9M square feet of gross leasable space in 33 states)
HTA SEC Filings
HTA 2019 Annual Report
Profit Snapshot: +$118.58 (6/8 & 6/16 sells only)
Current Position: 80 shares
Average Cost per share = $22.77
Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 ($1.26 annually)
The quarterly rate was at $.29 in 2015. The growth rate over a 5 year period was 8.62% or about 1.7% annually. The last increase was from $.31 to $.315 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment. Dividend growth has been below the annual average inflation rate over a five year period, producing real negative growth.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/20
Dividend Yield at average cost: 5.53%
Reinvestment: Turned off, view price as too high.
Last Earnings Report (3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
As with DOC, discussed in my last report, HTA is generating Funds Available for Distribution ("FAD") growth but insignificant increases in FAD per share.
FAD Per Share 3/31/19: $.35000
There is still room for dividend growth since the quarterly penny rate is currently at $.315.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51 (2/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot =$178.02) That 30 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post) The other 20 shares were sold in 2 ten share lots: Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20)(profit snapshot = $44.34) and Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(substantive discussion)(profit snapshot = $39.2)
Other Trades: Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $124.1)-Item # 5 Bought 50 HTA at $23.45 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 9/8/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
HTA Realized Gains to Date: $558.17
C. Pared VNOPRM-Sold 5 at $24.99:
Quote: Vornado Realty Trust 5.25% Cumulative Preferred Series M
Closing Price 7/17: VNO-PM $21.21 +$0.15 +0.71%
Issuer: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
VNO SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot: +$29.94
This was my highest cost lot bought at $19. Item # 3. Bought 10 VNOPRM at $19; 5 at $16.5; 5 at $14.5 (5/2/20 Post)
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Average Cost Remaining Shares: $15.5
Dividend Yield at $15.5: 8.47%
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified as a pass through entity
Optional Call: On or after 12/13/2022 at par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends
Stopper Clause: Yes
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2.A. Eliminated VNOPRM-Sold 50 at $22.95 (5/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $56.69); Item 2.C. Bought 30 VNOPRM at $21.98 (5/21/18 Post),Item # 1.A. Bought 20 VNOPRM at $21.57 (12/5/18 Post)
D. Restarted FHLC as a Placeholder -Bought 1 at $47.58:
Quote: FHLC | Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/17: FHLC $52.74 +$0.76 +1.46%
Sponsor's Website: FHLC | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Annual Average Total Returns:
1 Year: 19.68%
3 Years: 12.90%
5 Years: 8.78%
Sourced: Fidelity® MSCI Health Care ETF (FHLC) Performance | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
Expense Ratio: .08%
Last Elimination: Item # 3.D. (11/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $81.52)
This stock sector may be adversely impacted by the election results.
Dividends: Quarterly
Some Top Holdings:
E. Added $50 to FSPHX at $28.43:
Closing Price 7/17: FHLC $52.74 +$0.76 +1.46%
Sponsor's Website: FHLC | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Annual Average Total Returns:
1 Year: 19.68%
3 Years: 12.90%
5 Years: 8.78%
Sourced: Fidelity® MSCI Health Care ETF (FHLC) Performance | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
Expense Ratio: .08%
Last Elimination: Item # 3.D. (11/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $81.52)
This stock sector may be adversely impacted by the election results.
Dividends: Quarterly
Quote: FSPHX | Fidelity Select Health Care Portfolio Overview
Closing Price 7/17: FSPHX $31.56 +$0.55 +$1.77%
I discussed this mutual fund in my last post. I forgot to add this subsequent purchase made before that post was published.
Annual Average Total Returns (through 7/17):
1 Year: 29.26%
3 Years: 16.77%
5 Years: 9.59%
10 Years: 19.80%
Sourced: Fidelity® Select Health Care (FSPHX) Performance | Morningstar
This fund is outperforming the index fund discussed in the previous section.
F. Restarted IDV-Bought 10 at $25.79; 2 at $25.53; 3 at $25.08:
Quote: IDV | iShares International Select Dividend ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/17: IDV $26.08 +$0.15 +0.58%
Sponsor's Website: iShares International Select Dividend ETF | IDV
Expense Ratio: .49%
Last Elimination: Item # 2.B. Eliminated IDV-Sold 21+ at $32.44 (12/14/19 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Some Top Holdings:
Closing Price 7/17: IDV $26.08 +$0.15 +0.58%
Sponsor's Website: iShares International Select Dividend ETF | IDV
Expense Ratio: .49%
Last Elimination: Item # 2.B. Eliminated IDV-Sold 21+ at $32.44 (12/14/19 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
G. Started INTF in Vanguard Taxablel Account-Bought 5 at $23.32; 5 at $22.81:
Closing Price 7/17: INTF $24.08 +$0.21 +0.88%
I started this position in a Vanguard taxable account. I discussed starting a position in my Fidelity account in my last post and forgot to mention there that I am running a small ball "purchase program" in two accounts.
Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor International ETF ("Efficient access to a portfolio of global developed market large- and mid-cap stocks (ex U.S.) based on an index that focuses on four proven drivers of return: financially healthy firms, stocks that are inexpensive, smaller companies and trending stocks.")
Expense Ratio: .30%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Quote: VWO | Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/17: VWO $42.51 +$0.19 +0.45%
Sponsor's Website: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
Expense Ratio: .10%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
I have traded this ETF periodically and have not discussed here all of those trades. I have not sold any shares yet at a loss.
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.E. Sold 20 VWO at $42.61 (12/11/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.06); Item # 3 Eliminated VWO: Sold 25 at $43.69 -Roth IRA (4/15/15 Post)(profit snapshot +$70.27); Item # 3 Sold 65 VWO at $41.75 (10/11/13 Post)(profit snapshot $113.36) ; Item # 2. Sold: 100 of the Stock ETF VWO at $50.22 (4/12/11 Post)(profit snapshot =$129.55)
Earlier this year, I eliminated a larger position in the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets mutual fund. Item # 1 Eliminated PRMSX (4/19/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,522.22)
Performance Numbers: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO) Total Returns (rated 3 stars by Morningstar at time of purchase)
I do not view emerging market ETFs as long term holds. The general idea has been to catch a wave, surf it for awhile and then leave.
As of 7/14/20, VWO had the following total annual average total return numbers:
3 Years: +3.11%
5 Years: +4.14%
10 Years: +3.26%
15 Years: +6.17%
Better than a stick in the eye.
I. Started SPYD-Bought 5 at $29.44; 2 at $28.62; 3 at $27.76; 5 at $27.23:
Quote: SPYD | SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/17: SPYD $28.45 -$0.02 -0.07%
Expense Ratio: .07%
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Quote: Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)-A BDC
Closing Price 7/17: SCM $7.48 +$0.04 +0.54%
Website: Stellus Capital
SEC Filings
Management: External
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 31 and ends at page 59)
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 (investments listed starting at page 6)
Average Cost Per Share: $8.9
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Added 10 SCM at $7.8; 2 at $6.26, 3 at $5.30; 5 at $7.53 (5/9/20 Post) I mentioned in this post that a dividend cut was coming and that proved to be correct (see discussion under "Dividend" below)
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
3/31/20: $11.55
12/31/19: $14.14
12/31/18: $14.09
12/31/17: $13.81
12/31/16 $13.69
12/31/15: $13.19
12/31/14: $13.94
12/31/13: $14.54
November 2012: IPO at $15 ($14.46 after underwriters discount)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
SCM recently abandoned paying its dividend monthly. Stellus Capital Investment Corporation Announces Transition of Dividend from Monthly to Quarterly and to Report Quarterly Results and Hold Conference Call ("Moving to a quarterly dividend payment schedule will allow the Company more time to better understand the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has on our portfolio companies' liquidity and operations.")
The now defunct monthly rate was at $.1133 per share ($1.36 annually rounded).
Dividend Yield at $8.9 = 11.24% (using new quarterly rate)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/14/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, for as long as the likely dividend reinvestment price is likely to be at a greater than 10% discount to the last reported net asset value per share.
Recent Press Release: Stellus Capital Investment Corporation Provides an Update on its Second Fiscal Quarter Results (7/8/20) SCM stated in this release that there were no new nonaccruals.
Last Earnings Report (3/31/20): 10-Q
As of March 31, 2020, we had loans to 4 portfolio companies that were on non-accrual status which represented approximately 5.6% of our loan portfolio at cost and 1.1% at fair value."
Portfolio Composition:
Asset Quality (according to SCM):
Last Elimination: Item # 3 Eliminated SCM - Sold 50 at $13.72 (9/21/19 Post)(noting again that I was displeased with the 2019 second quarter report)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.H. Restarted SCM: Bought 10 at $11.94; 10 at $10.85; 10 at $10.4 and 10 at $8.59 (3/14/20 Post) I discussed in that report the earnings report for the Q/E 12/31/19. Stellus Capital Investment Corporation Reports Results for its Fourth Fiscal Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2019 (note: "Since December 31, 2019, we issued 332,591 shares under the At-the-Market ("ATM") Program, for gross proceeds of $4.8 million. The average per share offering price of shares issued in the ATM Program was $14.42.")
Other Trade Discussions:
Item # 1.B. Sold 32+ SCM at $14.22-Used Commission Free Trade (2/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $78.09); Item # 1.A. Sold Highest Cost Lot-50 Shares at $12.63 (5/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.24); Item 2.B. Sold 100 SCM at $14.23 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$285.96); Item # 2 Sold 100 SCM at $13.02 (1/12/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $141.96)
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend payments which has been accomplished so far for this BDC stock
SCM Trading Profits to Date = $543.99
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must reduce my average cost per share. The highest cost lot will be sold when and if it becomes profitable to do as a risk mitigation measure.
++
4. Exchange Traded Baby Bonds:
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds
Both of the bonds discussed in this section are view as high risk with TANNL being riskier IMO than SCA.
A. Restarted TANNL-Bought 5 at $23.5:
Closing Price 7/17: TANNL $23.66 -$0.34 -1.40%
I view this bond as very high risk.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.A. Eliminated TANNL-Sold 30 at $25.36 (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.35)-Item # 1.A. Bought 30 TANNL at $23.99-Used Commission Free Trade (8/15/18 Post)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Issuer: TravelCenters of America LLC (TA)
TravelCenters of America - Investors
TA Analyst Estimates
TA SEC Filings
Prospectus (risk factors discussed pages 10-27)
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat
Optional Redemption: at issuer's option now
Last Ex Interest Date: 5/14/20
Next Ex Interest Date: 8/13/20
Yield at $23.5 = 8.51%
List of Trades in TANNL (formerly traded under the TANO symbol):
Item # 4.B. Sold Remaining TANNL at $25.46 (4/14/17 Post)(profit $11.57); Item # 5. Sold 50 TANO in Roth IRA: Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 3/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot=+$55.47)-Item # 2. Bought 50 TANO at $23.2-ROTH IRA: Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket As Of 12/18/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 4.A. Sold 50 TANNL at $25.53 (3/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $67.78)-Item # 2. Added 50 TANO at $24: Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 2/3/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
I seriously doubt that I would own this bond for long when and if the price goes over the $25 par value.
B. Added to SCA-Bought 5 at $23:
Last Discussed: Item # 7.A. Bought 10 SCA at $19.1 (5/9/20 Post)
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 9/15/22
Optional Call: At par on or after 9/15/19
Capital Structure Placement: Senior unsecured bond
Interest: Quarterly
Last Ex Interest Date:
Trades Flat
Last Ex Interest Date: 5/29/20
Next Ex Interest Date: 8/31/20
5. Cash Flow Example: Received 7/15/20 Fidelity Taxable Account
All bonds were purchased at less than par value. The Goldman Sachs and National Rural Utilities $1K par bonds pay monthly interest. The other $1K pay value bonds pay semi-annually. The exchange traded bonds pay quarterly. I will own some of the bonds in more than 1 account.
$1K Par Value Bonds: Links are to FINRA pages.
2 3.5% McDonalds SU Matured on 7/15/20
1 3.9% Dow Chemical SU 7/15/25
2 2.55% Federal Reality SU (Equity REIT) 1/15/21
1 3% Goldman Sachs SU 3/15/24
2 4% Office Properties SU 7/15/22
2 3.625% Highwood Properties SU 1/15/23 (Equity REIT)
2 3.3% Kroger SU 1/15/21
2 2.55% Natural Rural Utility SU 3/15/22
1 3% National Rural Utilities SU 12/15/27
1 2.95% Virginia Electric SU 1/15/22
1 3.95% Black Hills SU 1/15/26 (utility company)
$25 Par Value REIT Equity Preferred stocks: GNLPRA, HTIA, JCAPPRB, SLGPRI (all pay quarterly)
Equity REIT Common Shares: CUBE, GNL, JCAP, RLJ, SLG
Hybrid REIT: STWD
BDC: HRZN
Regional Bank: FITB
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Sounds like there's hesitation starting up with growth stocks, meaning the big 5, enough that there is probably a shift coming. Certainly not a great spot to start chasing them.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy the Lincoln ads. We can see they work on Trump. He spent time in at Mt. Rushmore showing off his water drinking and ramp walking, to counter the ads.
But was surprised to get concerned and negative comments on twitter. Worry that supporting or funding these is no good cause they're GOP. The litmus test urge is strong in the Dems. Cut off nose to spite face.
One person retweeted me to "humiliate" me for saying a simple glad for the ad's and their efforts at rescuing the party from the extreme. Person didn't take much of my time and is now person-non-grata. But the general trend of reaction, is head shaking.
Some interesting new ETFs that you've started small ball in. The Robotics in particular. Not companies I've heard of. It's good to get into technology that isn't the big giants already grown.
For overseas you describe it as temporary. I will play foreign by ear. They haven't excelled in a while, since before 2008. However, with US's current muck, we may fall behind for a while.
Listened to both Mary Trump interviews, MSNBC and CNN. It's hard to believe, but media personalities are using it as informational, telling them that between "he's doing what he thinks gets him a base" and "he really believes himself, since it's a family member saying the 2nd, now they believe it. They haven't brought on psychologists because they'd be judging from afar. That explains the absence of an important field of expertise. Meanwhile if broke his leg, they'd bring in an expert to explain how that works. I am now 185 in a queue with 3 books, and 300ish in a queue with 35 books for the audio version from the library. May Trump be gone by the time the book is ready to borrow.
Land: The trailing 12 month S & P 500 P/E closed last Friday at 29.34, using GAAP actual earnings. The forward 12 month P/E was then at 25.87 using non-GAAP estimates.
Deletehttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
When the second quarter earnings are reported, the 12 month trailing P/E using GAAP actual earnings will probably go over 35 assuming the market remains a current levels.
The Shiller P/E is currently at 30.05 or about where it was in October 1929:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
The market cap to GDP ratio is higher now than it was at the market's apex in 2000:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp/
All of these valuation measures are happening during a U.S. recession of unknown and unknowable duration.
My inclination is to flee but I have nowhere to go with the proceeds. So, for the most part, I am buying small positions as placeholders for future small ball buying programs.
I do not feel any urgency at current stock market levels to stick my head out, particularly since I am still receiving a decent amount in cash flow from bonds that were bought when interest rates were much higher.
I am listening to Mary Trump's book. I subscribe to Scribd which has it.
https://www.scribd.com/
One of the many undesirable traits of a malignant narcissist like Donald is sadism. The sadistic behavior can be either physical or verbal or both. Donald does take pleasure in telling lies that he believes will hurt people (e.g. the Scarborough matter). This Harvard psychiatrist is on point:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/psychiatrist-trump-became-the-same-sadistic-tyrannical-and-cruel-person-his-father-was-87851077727
The republican party can not be saved or reformed at this point. Bill Kristol made this point here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVQsYzIEJsk
I don't know if eventually some set of the GOP can be extracted into a new party or a remake of part of this party. But I don't think the Lincoln project should automatically be dismissed as bad stuff. ...and all people who support it as bad people or practically Trump supporters, merely because it shares the GOP label.
DeleteIt's rare for a sadist to be involved in as little physical assaults as Trump's been tagged with. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. Waiting to find out he authorized some hit job or something more physical than we know about. So far we know he hasn't stopped physical harm by a long shot.
The answer on the Shiller P/E in articles is always, but low interest rates with no real expectation they'll rise, and no where else to go.
I heard a few minutes of Suze Orman yesterday. She was talking about how if you can get 5% interest, it's that a good reason to start saving now. I have to assume it was an old, old program taped.
Is there anything financial to be gleaned from the twitter security attack, that was like a Prince from Nigeria spam, but was asking for bitcoins? Bitcoins have made it as real money, when they count as viable, in spam collection schemes? Will bitcoins change the world of fiat money?
Land: I do not trust the cryptocurrencies. Their acceptance appears to be growing, but there is no way to know how much of that acceptance is merely speculative trades or based on real economy transactions.
DeleteGold has been an either an alternative to fiat currencies (which is the case now) or historically what created a store of value for the fiat currencies (paper currency exchangeable for gold or gold bullion in coins). I would view gold as a more acceptable alternative to fiat currencies than bitcoin.
I have never owned bitcoin and never will. There are probably a lot of speculators who find appeal in what they believe is anonymity and do not report transactions in the currency to the IRS. Buying and selling cryptocurrencies are taxable events for U.S. taxpayers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/the-irs-has-a-new-tax-form-and-wants-to-know-about-your-cryptocurrency.html
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/virtual-currencies
I do not know how well the IRS is doing in tracking down transactions but that agency has been sending out tax evasion letters to those who have not reported transactions.
When I sold some gold and silver bullion in September 2011 and January 2012, I reported those transaction on the IRS form 8949, checking box C, which is the same form used to report foreign currency transactions in my brokerage accounts.
Outside of the U.S. bitcoin transactions are probably common in criminal type enterprises and actions.
So the crypto in cryptocurrencies makes them attractive.
DeleteI've been ignoring them. They didn't seem to have any serious use or backing.
The use in a scam made me wonder if they were gaining visibility.
You've written about owning gold coins as a way to invest in gold when owing bullion wasn't a legal option. NOwadays I'd want to buy an ETF that's backed up by physical billion.
I have a very small coin collection. It's all regular, but old at the time, coins collected when I was little. Looking them up years later, they were worth about face value of each coin or double on some pennies and nickles. I would say I am not a serious collector of coins.
I've never owned a gold coin.
Land: U.S. dimes, quarters and half dollars minted in 1964 or earlier were 90% silver. I took a lot of those out of circulation when I was 13, exchanging dollar bills for the face value of the coins.
DeleteA 1964 Roosevelt dime, for example, has about 8% of a troy oz of silver. If silver was worth $20 oz., then the value of the silver content in that coin would be about $1.6 and a 100 of those 1964 dimes would have about $160 in silver at $20 per oz for the $10 in face value.
Prices will vary a lot among dealers. I noticed that one dealer will buy $1K in face value at $16,621. based on $19.65 spot silver per oz. and sell at $17,387.
https://www.monex.com/90-percent-junk-silver-coins-for-sale/
I sold most of junk silver coins when silver went over $42 per ounce in September 2011.
I did start to buy bullion U.S. mint silver and gold eagles around 1986 or 1987. I quit buying the gold eagles when gold went over $400 and my last buy of the U.S. silver 1 oz eagles was when I paid a dealer $7 per coin or $140 per roll for 20.
I sold some gold bullion in September 2011 after the price went over $1900 per oz, and again in January 2012. I may sell some more when and if the price goes over $2000 per oz.
I now prefer trading the precious metal ETFs since I can do that from my desk and do not have to store it in a bank lockbox.
I am not a buyer now, more in a consider to sell some of the bullion that I already own.
If I buy a PM ETF, I will probably go with the fund that owns several PMs.
Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (GLTR)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gltr
Okay, I'll go look at my coins :). I suspect I have most wheat pennies. That's what had gotten my attention. I wouldn't have thought about silver and content at the age I was interested. It was just the idea of variety and that coins change.
DeleteI'm at my first destination. One of us would have to be asymptomatic & recently acquired (in last I hear it's not 10 days) to be sharing it. Seems unlikely.
DeleteThat was the strangest packed car. Pillows, air filter machine, fans, foods, and by the way one small suitcase of clothes.
I looked through my coins a little. The USA ones are mostly wheat pennies. I'm sure the dates were not worth money. There's some foreign coins because those seemed exotic. Before internet, the world seemed larger. The 1/2 dollars and quarters are all after '64. I'd guess that by the time I was collecting, aware people had pulled all the pre-'64 silver containing ones.
It's fun to read your adventures. You had a sense of how to turn a profit, even at that age. ...along with digging into details.
A PM ETF seems better than owning the metal these days. (Outside of my jewelry. But the gold pieces are sentimental.) I have a horseshoe with tiny little star inside that said z'ion in Hebrew for zion. My grandmother gave it to me when I was little. She had it from Europe after the war. I don't known how she acquired it, but they were in the DP camps for 7 years, so time to get work and earn a little. She later bought me the same design in earrings while on their only trip to Israel. It seemed like she didn't realize she'd bought plastic not gold. But it said to me, that the design was common. I later tracked down that it was a common design post-war. Obviously I won't be selling it unless a matter of life. The few other gold pieces were gifts too by people who mattered to me.)
I've expected that platinum and lithium which matter in manufacturing and will matter, are a good idea in a PM allocation. So that does with your point of ETFs that own several PMs.
International Business Machines Corp.
ReplyDeletePREMARKET $132.45 +$6.08 +4.81%
Last Updated: Jul 21, 2020 at 8:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ibm
Based on pre-market trading this morning, it looks like IBM will provide a boost to the DJIA based on its earnings report released after yesterday's close.
This report is discussed in this SA article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4359480-ibm-jumps-results-impress
I currently own, as a bond substitute, 18+ shares at an average cost per share of $121.89. The dividend yield at that average cost number is 5.35%. The last ex dividend was on 5/7.
When I characterize a common stock as a bond substitute, I am defining my goal which is income. A victory occurs when I harvest the dividend and avoid losing money on the shares. Capital appreciation is still desired but not viewed as necessary.
My last sell was my highest cost 2 shares, sold at $155.4 earlier this year and prior to the March meltdown.
Since my last discussion, I bought 1 share at $116.16 which I will discuss in an early August post.
+++
The EU also reached an agreement on a large stimulus program:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit/eu-reaches-truly-historic-deal-on-pandemic-recovery-after-fractious-summit-idUSKCN24M0DF
The EU is in a far better place than the U.S. on the pandemic.
I owned a lot of IBM from the stock buying program. Heck, give me a 10% discount, why wouldn't I buy? It split twice. I didn't know what to do with all those shares. I sold at a reasonably high price. Over $200. Haven't dipped back in. The company can't get it's rudder steering forward well yet. I still hold out hope. Nice div. Well worth collecting. But a good reminder to me to not buy for a div, rather than the quality of the stock and it's future.
DeleteEU has stimulus. The US looks like it's closer. At least Senate and WH aren't at war on it any more.
Land: I am not confident that another U.S. stimulus, when and if passed by Congress and signed by Donald into law will have much of an impact.
DeleteI suspect that republicans have not ironed out their differences yet either:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/508823-senate-gop-punts-coronavirus-package-to-next-week
McConnell may have a package next week but has not started negotiations with the Senate Democrats yet; and the House's plan that has already passed that chamber is vastly different.
As to IBM, it is a bad stock, but qualifies in very small doses as a bond substitute. The general idea is to sell the pops and buy the dips; never buying at a price higher than my average cost; and eventually exiting the position at a profit after harvesting several dividends. If successful, winning is defined as a 6% annual average total return, mostly from the dividend.
Ebay redeemed today its 3.25% SU bonds maturing on 10/15/20. I owned 8 so that is $8K added to my money market fund earning .01%.
Intel will probably be a drag tomorrow on the DJIA and SPX.
Intel Corp.
After Hours $54.00 -$6.40 -10.60%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/intc
While a stimulus won't impact the economy.... most likely if it has the $600 bonus the market will do a trapeze act. If it doesn't the market with throw a temper tantrum, then get up on that trapeze. I plan to buy if a package is passed. It assumes the same reaction as to the last one but from a different higher price. But this market has been so enthusiastic, it seems like a reasonable bet. Not with all my funds of course.
DeleteThe delay in negotiations, are a good point. Might make my prior paragraph moot, as the arguments continue.
Intel will drag on my average tomorrow. I will ignore it. Maybe... time to buy some more. Average down.
Land: The republican Senate plan, which is circulating only in an outline form and is still in flux, would reduce the average weekly bonus unemployment payment from $600 to about an average $200 or lower.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/coronavirus-stimulus-republicans-consider-unemployment-insurance-extension.html
I suspect that the nation will experience a major spike in cases during the fall and winter as children and teenagers become major spreaders as in person classes resume, with many adults suffering from both Covid-19 and flu infections.
My niece and all of us breathed a sigh of relief that she was headed to College in a hotbed state, and they changed plans to do at home learning. She says most schools are opening with some in person. But I'm glad she's got less chance of being one of the Fall spikes.
DeleteSome areas around me also announced remote learning until later in the fall, as a change from the original plan to do some opening.
To be facetious, The areas of Spike are going to depend on where those 44% live...
I imagine the house will go with the 200. So is bad as it looks now, by the end of the month, week, we may have a stimulus passed.
JPMorgan BetaBuilders Canada ETF (BBCA)
ReplyDelete$23.92 $0.31 +$1.31%
Last Updated: Jul 21, 2020 9:51 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bbca
Yesterday, I was looking around for USD priced ETFs that owned Canadian stocks. In the past, I would just buy EWC, an Ishares offering that has a .49% expense ratio.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239615/
Compared to the U.S. stock markets, EWC has been a horrible holding, generating a 10 year average annual total return of 2.56% through yesterday.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ewc/performance
The problem has been a lack of growth stocks that are powering the U.S. stock market higher (1 exception) and a preponderance of bank, pipeline and energy E & P stocks, some of the most disfavored sectors.
Perhaps the chronic underperformance of the Canadian stock market will change. Canada has done a much better job than the U.S. in controlling the pandemic but that would be true for just about every country in the world other than places like Brazil.
I bought 10 shares of BBCA rather than EWC since the expense ratio is lower at .19%.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/products/d/jpmorgan-betabuilders-canada-etf-etf-shares-46641q696
The top holding is Shopify (SHOP) a 7.8% weighting. I view that stock as absurdly valued but it is up YTD about 153.88% through yesterday and 205.88% over the past year.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/shop/trailing-returns
EWC also has SHOP as the top holding with a 7.7% weighting. Without SHOP, performance of Canadian stock index ETFs would have been worse.
Regional bank stocks have generally been money pits for awhile now, socked first by NIM compression resulting from the FED's Jihad and more recently by soaring loan loss reserves.
ReplyDeleteIf loan losses continue at elevated levels in the second half, many will have to cut their dividends.
Many regional bank stocks are consequently hovering at 2009 levels.
Since the stocks are so depressed, even a ray of less than expected bad news can send one higher.
WASH actually had a good earnings report.
Washington Trust Bancorp Inc. (WASH)
$33.82 +$3.32 +10.89%
Last Updated: Jul 21, 2020 11:16 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wash
Press Release:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/washington-trust-reports-second-quarter-2020-earnings-301096470.html
That must be why the DOW's holding up the best today.
DeleteThe vaccine excitement is hard to grasp. It's popping off of already recovered values. It's make sense to pop off depressed values.
There's this idea that stimulus money is additive to the recovered market, not what allows enough non-bankrupcies for there to BE a recovered market (which still isn't guarantee.)
I'm traveling and packing, so not paying close attention. But I'm starting to think I want to chance. The market's made up it's mind. My money's not doing well not following along. Maybe find value with divs, tech, things with good balance sheets, and generally get into the indices with whatever individuals I haven't dug up enough of. But some sell support orders in. Without trading fees, it becomes feasible, and I'd be no worse off than now.
Land: Lockheed Martin had a decent day after reporting earnings.
DeleteLockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
$375.12 +$9.59 (+2.62%)
Texas Instruments is up in after hours after reporting earnings:
After Hours:
138.01 +2.53 (1.87%)
After hours: 4:38PM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXN/?p=TXN
You have previously mentioned owning both.
IBM was up in after hours trading yesterday and early trading today before spending today going down. The opening was at $132.17 and the close at $126.06.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM/?p=IBM
IBM is not a good stock, and has not been for years, but it a decent bond substitute that I will trade in small lots.
This financial writer offered an opinion about IBM that is probably shared by the Stock Jocks:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ibm-outlook-remains-cloudy-at-best-as-new-ceo-fails-to-plot-the-way-forward-2020-07-21?mod=mw_quote_news
Maybe regional banks can mount a two consecutive day rally.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$38.10 +2.07 +5.75%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/KRE
WASH was my 2nd best performer in that sector today, but everything that I own was up:
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (WASH)
$34.67 +$4.17 (+13.67%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WASH?p=WASH
The best performer was FHB where I am digging myself out of a hole after trading the stock profitably:
First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB)
$17.77 +$2.24 (+14.42%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FHB?p=FHB
WASH did good because of earnings, while FHB was just up with the sector and news that it was going to be added to the S & P 600.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/emergent-biosolutions-set-to-join-sp-midcap-400-first-hawaiian-to-join-sp-smallcap-600-301096523.html
Yes, my LMT and TXN are doing fine. Both owned in part for divs. I think I'm going to skip trying to time this, and just hold through.
DeleteThat's a big change for regional banks. Right about now bankruptcies should start showing up. So it seems counter indicated.
I was asked a question about ENB and its grey market listed USD price preferred EBGEF. The question was posted to an old 2019 post as was my response.
ReplyDeleteThis is a link to my response for anyone interested:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_20.html?showComment=1595366140745#c8534404035691639297
I am extremely underweighted in regional bank stocks compared to my allocation in the 2010-2017 period. I slashed my allocation in 2017 through 2019.
ReplyDeleteThe current positions are small and I would divide them between those owned prior to March 2020 (losers) and purchased during March 2020 and thereafter (winners).
CNB Financial Corporation (CCNE)is one of the winners with a 15 share position, up 15.22% with today's pop.
Closed at $16.88 +0.87 (+5.43%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCNE/analysis?p=CCNE
The 3 analysts provided earnings estimates were not thinking positive vibes for the current quarter with the consensus at $.32, down from $.64 in the 2019 second quarter.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCNE/analysis?p=CCNE
The bank reported GAAP E.P.S. of $.54 and non-GAAP at $.56 (adjusted to exclude 2 cents per share in merger related expenses for a recently concluded acquisition)
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/21/2065319/0/en/CNB-Financial-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-2020-Earnings-Per-Share-of-0-54-Compared-to-0-64-for-Second-Quarter-2019.html
CCNE is a small bank and has delayed adopting the CECL accounting standard which is permissible under the CARES Act. Loan losses would probably be greater if that accounting standard had been adopted for the 2020 first two quarters.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
ReplyDelete95.00 -0.12 -0.13%
Last Updated: Jul 22, 2020 at 10:12 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=home-page
The U.S. Dollar Index topped out at 102.82 on 3/20/20 and has been sliding since that top.
The U.S. Dollar Index measures the USD's strength against six major currencies weighted in the Euro. A decline in the index indicates USD weakness against that basket of foreign currencies.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
$174.67 $1.71 +0.99%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gld
On 3/20/20, the DXY top, GLD bottomed at $140.11.
The decline in the USD does provide a push for USD priced ETFs that own stocks priced in foreign currencies that are rising against the USD.
The CAD has been rising some. The CAD/USD bottomed was at .6962 (3/20) and is currently near.745. If this trend continues Canadian stocks priced in USDs will outperform the same stocks priced in CADs and their dividend yield will increase as well.
Economists have been debating the reasons for currency movements, but have really never came up with an explanation. Whatever the cause, the USD looks like it wants to go lower.
This article was published in Barrons on 7/20 and is based on a technical analysis:
"The U.S. Dollar Index Is Poised to Plunge"
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-u-s-dollar-index-is-poised-to-plunge-51595239201
I have expressed a long term negative view about the USD based on several factors. The current weakness may be related to Trump's grossly negligent handling of the pandemic that may negatively impact near term U.S. growth prospects compared to other nations who have already flattened the curve.
Longer term, I expect the dysfunction in the U.S. to rise exponentially with the parabolic increases in federal government debt. Over time, faith in the USD as store of value will erode.
Thanks. Those are interesting points.
DeleteBrookline Bancorp Inc. (BRKL)
ReplyDeleteClose: $9.63 -$0.20 -2.03%
52 WEEK RANGE 8.13 - 16.96 (cut in half from high)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/brkl
After seeing several better than expected earnings reports from small regional banks, I decided to do a shotgun spray this morning, buying 10 share lots in several of them that had previously been eliminated.
One of those buys was a 10 share lot of BRKL, bought at $9.51 earlier today.
The bank had a rough first quarter which caused some pessimism among the six analysts who contributed to the second quarter E.P.S. estimate of $.14, down from $.26 in the 2019 second quarter. The high estimate was at $.24 with the low at $.01 per share.
The company reported after the close a second quarter E.P.S. of $.25.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/22/2066182/0/en/Brookline-Bancorp-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results.html
BRKL is a holding company for two banks operating in the Boston and Providence, R.I. metropolitan markets. Those banks have a combined 51 branches.
February 2020 SEC Filed Investor Presentation:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1049782/000117184320000944/exh_991.htm
The first quarter was hit by a large CEFL related charge as noted in the press release.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share
Last eliminated at $9.53 in 2014:
Item # 3.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2014/07/update-for-lottery-ticket-reit-and.html
Unilever PLC ADR (UL)
ReplyDeletePREMARKET $60.36 +4.51 +8.08%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ul
UL is the ADR for the UK traded share class.I have bought and sold this stock many times, most recently in a dividend harvest earlier this year which was not discussed.
The pop this morning is due to a better than expected increase in revenues, even though revenues declined.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unilever-profit-climbs-in-first-half-2020-07-23?mod=mw_quote_news
UL will be a top ten component of UK stock ETFs.
One of those is EWU, with a .5% expense ratio, where the weighting is at 3.6%.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239690/
The YTD decline in EWU was -20.83% through yesterday. The major problems are Royal Dutch and BP, both in the top 10.
I purchased this week, I think, another UK ETF that has a lower expense ratio.
Sponsor's Website:
Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB)
https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/investments-and-solutions/investment-options/etfs/overview/26350/franklin-ftse-united-kingdom-etf/FLGB
The expense ratio is at .09%.
While it could have been reasonably expected that new weekly unemployment claims would rise, given the renewed shutdowns and worrisome spikes in new infections, the Stock Jocks acted surprised today with a greater than expected 1.416M new claims for the week ending 7/18.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/weekly-jobless-claims.html
About 30M Americans are now drawing unemployment insurance.
This is probably the most effective ad so far about Trump's handling of the pandemic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLJkpH__os
He has finally been convinced that holding an indoor convention as previously planned until today would hurt his reelection chances. Donald took this action because, in his words, he deeply cares about the people of Florida.
The nation has now gone over 4M infections with more than 146K deaths:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/coronavirus?ocid=bingcoronaviruslinks
The U.S. leads the world in infections and deaths.
Trump's HHS has assured everyone that death totals will start to decline in the next couple of weeks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/hhs-predicts-us-coronavirus-death-rate-will-begin-to-fall-in-next-couple-of-weeks.html
++
Intel reportedly favorable results for the second quarter but announced a delay in its next generation of chips which is causing a significant price decline in after hours trading:
Intel Corp.
After hours: $54.30 +-$6.10 -10.10%
Last Updated 6:01 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-rides-strong-server-pc-sales-to-earnings-beat-and-forecasts-more-but-stock-still-falls-2020-07-23?mod=home-page
The regional bank ETF rose 2.57% today:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
The flight to quality trade involved both treasuries and gold.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
$169.75 +$1.96 +1.17%
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
$177.18 +$1.55 +0.88%
He is actually not holding his Florida indoor convention. That must have taken a lot of pressure. As time gets closer he will get crazier that he gave up this "opportunity."
DeleteThat ad is grabbing. It's starting to remind me of the AT&T commercial days. The tear jerking ads. "Wake Up!" "This is How it Begins". The ending to "Fauci" grabbed my attention. "We can make him disappear. It's not magic. It's democracy."
Land: Mitt Romney believes that Donald will win a second term.
DeleteIn a recent poll, 44% of republicans believe that Bill Gates will insert tracking devices into a Covid-19 vaccine.
While there may be an effective Covid-19 vaccine available by early 2021, there is no known cure for stupid.
Does Romney have an actual reason for believing that? Because if he does then we need to know and fight hard at whatever we can.
DeleteTracking devices in a virus? 44%??? I'm still stuttering.
Land: He gave 3 reasons, and I would add several more.
DeleteHis reasons, as I recall, are the (1) the power of the incumbency; (2) a significant number of voters who indicate a preference for Biden will not vote particularly the youngsters who lack enthusiasm; and (3) Trump will start to sound more reasonable and moderate which started yesterday.
I would add several other factors that come into play.
(1) There are voters who will respond favorably to Trump's law and order related campaign commercials. The continued violence in Portland plays into that theme.
(2) Many voters believe that Trump's economic plan was working until Covid-19 sent the economy reeling.
(3)Biden will raise corporate taxes. There is talk that he will end the favored tax treatment for dividends and capital gains. Dividends were taxed at ordinary income rates for a long time, probably for most of my life, which changed in 2003:
https://www.dividend.com/taxes/a-brief-history-of-dividend-tax-rates/
(4) What can you say when 81% of republicans view Donald as honest and almost as many view Donald as a role model for their children. My guess is that almost 50% of voters can not be influenced with accurate information.
(5) Donald has a boatload of money to fund false and misleading advertisements.
Those are all good reasons to be concerned.
DeleteTrump's found his message. It's completely false. But it will play well.
His Facebook ad on Law & Order, included a photo from Ukraine 2014, claiming it was USA now. That's the kind of false stuff the terrorist's groups post. Pre internet they couldn't get away with it.
It was different to see a down day. It even tried to break even for a while. It has gotten so high, or feels that way.
ReplyDeleteThe US's situation on covid is so demoralizing.
Sigh on Intel. I own it, and it had been doing well. Another sigh. Eventually it will do fine. And it is an okay div meanwhile (at what I bought it at.)
I've seen more Lincoln ads. Every one of them is good. I'm looking forward to this one!
More at another point soon... (Company calls.)
Yesterday was an interesting day for me since I ended up with net gains which is continuing today so far.
ReplyDeleteRegional bank stocks have been doing better in response to earnings reports that are less bad than expected or even good under the circumstances.
It is difficult for me to buy those stocks now given the NIM compression resulting from the Fed's Jihad and increasing loan losses and additions to loan loss reserves.
So I resorted to my shotgun scatter trading technique using the small ball strategy.
One of the new purchases, just 15 shares at an average cost of $12.2 (7/8 & 7/9) was Associate Banc (ASB).
ASSOCIATED BANC CORP (ASB)
$13.95 +$0.355 +2.61%
Last Updated: Jul 24, 2020 at 9:49 a.m. EDT
The rise today so far is in response to the earnings report released after yesterday's close:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/associated-banc-corp-reports-second-quarter-2020-earnings-of-0-94-per-common-share-including-the-gain-on-sale-of-associated-benefits-and-risk-consulting-301099130.html
A large gain was recognized in the quarter from the sale of Associated Benefits and Risk Consulting. That transaction contributed to $.68 to E.P.S., as tangible book value per share accelerated 11% to $16.21. Without that gain, E.P.S. was $.26. The bank is being negatively impacted by provisions for credit losses so smooth sailing is not around the corner.
Turns out I'd sold 30 out of 83 INTC back around 61-63 and never bought them back (market climbed). So I just bought back 10 at $50-51. It's frustrating to see so much % profit disappear. But at least I'd sold some.
ReplyDeleteWondering if I should sell some TXN. Been glad I've held till now.
Garmin, I'd sold some at 83ish. Hasn't been a chance to get back in.
WMT sold 5 at 131.15. It's back near it's highs. It could break through, but if the market tanks it will. If the market recovers, it's tech and travel that will get bought. This will stay here a while.
I'm considering buying $5k IWM or SPY since it's been 2 down days and the market can't stand that. ...Even though this is no sale price.
Land: I have mostly been doing some light selling. Earlier in the week, I added to the double short ETFs.
DeleteToday, I eliminated two "preferred" stock ETFs PGX and PFXF, using some of the proceeds to take my position in DCOMP up to 100 shares. Those transactions increased my yield and reduced my dollar exposure to this niche sector some while harvesting close to $200 in profits.
If common stocks are in for another period of heightened volatility with a strong downside bias, the "preferred stock" ETFs have historically experienced similar downside moves during those periods.
PFXF, for example, closed at $18.92 today, and near $13 during the March common stock meltdown.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/pfxf
I do not own Intel and was not tempted to buy today. Generally, with this kind of debacle, the low price is not hit on the first day. The downside may accelerate with a significant slide in the QQQ names and/or the market.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) rose $6.53 today to close at $73.9. TSM has already mastered the 7 nanometer manufacturing and is producing chips for Intel's rival AMD which rose $9.83 today, closing at $69.4.
Intel's inability to manufacture that chip and having to delay production for at least 6 months is a major black eye.
I do not own TSM but it is a major component in some ETFs that I own. TSM will generally be a top ten holding even in a broad international ETF like VEU. It is the 3rd largest holding in VWO which I discussed in this post. Item # 3.H.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/aio-cibr-cs-htia-igr-mfcprmca-mgk-mnr.html
""with this kind of debacle...""
ReplyDeleteWhich is why I bought 10 back of the 30, not all.
""Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) rose""
That's a good idea, it buy the competition. I need to add that to a playbook. (A stickum will just stop sticking just when I need to remember.)
If there is downside that goes with the bias, that may be a chance for me to buy some preferred stock.
Land: Intel is a stock where there is a wide variation in price targets.
DeleteThe news last week did cause downward adjustments in price targets and some downgrades as well:
Goldman Sachs Cuts Intel's Price Target to $46 From $54, Maintains Sell Rating
RBC Capital Lowers Intel's Price Target to $48 From $52, Maintains Underperform Rating
AllianceBernstein L.P. downgrades INTEL CORPORATION from MARKET PERFORM to UNDERPERFORM.
Roth Capital Lowers Intel to Neutral From Buy, Price Target to $55 From $75
Barclays Downgrades Intel to Underweight From Equal-Weight, Cuts Price Target to $48 From $58
JPM and MS analysts are still positive, but less so:
JP Morgan Lowers Intel's Price Target to $75 From $80, Maintains Overweight Rating
Morgan Stanley Lowers Intel's Price Target to $61 From $65, Maintains Equal Weight Rating
The Morningstar analyst has the FV at $70 with a 4 star rating and did not lower its opinion based on the announcement.
The Credit Suisse analyst keep its buy rating but lowered its PT to $70 from $75.
Both of those reports are available at Schwab.
I would be in the neutral camp. There are other stocks that I would buy before turning my attention to INTC.