Economy:
Jobs report June 2020: Jobs increase by 4.8 million, unemployment rate at 11.1%
Leisure and hospitality accounted for about 40% of the job growth of +2.1M. Retail job growth was reported at +740,000. Employment Situation Summary "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000, from -20.7 million to -20.8 million, and the change for May was revised up by 190,000, from +2.5 million to +2.7 million." The average work week declined by .2 to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings fell by 35 cents due to lower wage employees returning to their jobs. The U-6 number declined to 18% from 21.2% in May. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
I discussed this report in a comment.
New unemployment claims increased by 1.427M for the week ending 6/27/20. U.S. jobless claims continue slow but steady descent in late June, falling to 1.43 million - MarketWatch So some employers continue to lay people off even as other employers rehire or the BLS new jobs number overstates what is actually happening. I view the new unemployment claims number to be more reliable.
U.S. still poised for 'V-shaped recovery' despite reopening setbacks: Trump adviser Larry Kudlow- Reuters
U.S. economy won’t grow as fast as expected over next six months, CBO says - MarketWatch
Why does anyone pay any attention to Kudlow? Trump Favorite Larry Kudlow, Makes Bad Economic Forecasts | Money
Jobs report June 2020: Jobs increase by 4.8 million, unemployment rate at 11.1%
Leisure and hospitality accounted for about 40% of the job growth of +2.1M. Retail job growth was reported at +740,000. Employment Situation Summary "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000, from -20.7 million to -20.8 million, and the change for May was revised up by 190,000, from +2.5 million to +2.7 million." The average work week declined by .2 to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings fell by 35 cents due to lower wage employees returning to their jobs. The U-6 number declined to 18% from 21.2% in May. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
I discussed this report in a comment.
New unemployment claims increased by 1.427M for the week ending 6/27/20. U.S. jobless claims continue slow but steady descent in late June, falling to 1.43 million - MarketWatch So some employers continue to lay people off even as other employers rehire or the BLS new jobs number overstates what is actually happening. I view the new unemployment claims number to be more reliable.
U.S. still poised for 'V-shaped recovery' despite reopening setbacks: Trump adviser Larry Kudlow- Reuters
U.S. economy won’t grow as fast as expected over next six months, CBO says - MarketWatch
Why does anyone pay any attention to Kudlow? Trump Favorite Larry Kudlow, Makes Bad Economic Forecasts | Money
Coronavirus update: Pending home sales spike a record 44.3% in May Sales were 5.9% lower than May 2019.
Record number of Americans say fight against coronavirus going badly — CBS News poll-CBS News I believe that this perception, which is rationally based on facts, will negatively impact aggregate U.S. consumer spending in the coming months.
There's no stopping COVID-19, JPMorgan's top investment guru thinks - CBS News
Biden tells donors he will end most of Trump's tax cuts The Democrats are making noises about raising the corporate tax rate to 28%.
Chicago PMI rebounds only slightly in June from 38-year low in prior month - MarketWatch
There's no stopping COVID-19, JPMorgan's top investment guru thinks - CBS News
Biden tells donors he will end most of Trump's tax cuts The Democrats are making noises about raising the corporate tax rate to 28%.
Chicago PMI rebounds only slightly in June from 38-year low in prior month - MarketWatch
Japanese manufacturing sentiment at 11-year low - MarketWatch
17.6 million unemployed Americans likely won't return to old jobs
Fed officials raised concerns in June that U.S. could enter a much worse recession later this year if coronavirus cases continued to spike
There is no reason for the FED to be concerned since Our Dear Leader assured everyone last Thursday that the pandemic is under control in the U.S.. Trump claims coronavirus is ‘under control’ despite record-high cases; Coronavirus: Trump touts response as COVID-19 daily cases surge
E.U. coronavirus safe list: This is why the U.S. was nowhere near making the cut
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
17.6 million unemployed Americans likely won't return to old jobs
Fed officials raised concerns in June that U.S. could enter a much worse recession later this year if coronavirus cases continued to spike
There is no reason for the FED to be concerned since Our Dear Leader assured everyone last Thursday that the pandemic is under control in the U.S.. Trump claims coronavirus is ‘under control’ despite record-high cases; Coronavirus: Trump touts response as COVID-19 daily cases surge
E.U. coronavirus safe list: This is why the U.S. was nowhere near making the cut
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
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Markets and Market Commentary:
A predicate for the stock market surge is the virus cooperating with the reopening push. Coronavirus cases rose by nearly 50 percent last month, led by states that reopened first The U.S. exceeded 50,000 new cases on a single day last Wednesday. U.S. Reports Nearly 50,000 New Cases, Another Single-Day Record (7/2/20 article)
A predicate for the stock market surge is the virus cooperating with the reopening push. Coronavirus cases rose by nearly 50 percent last month, led by states that reopened first The U.S. exceeded 50,000 new cases on a single day last Wednesday. U.S. Reports Nearly 50,000 New Cases, Another Single-Day Record (7/2/20 article)
Goldman, other banks hold dividend steady, Wells Fargo to cut after stress test The dividend cut for WFC has not yet been announced.
The coronavirus crisis is costing states and locals hundreds of billions, analysis finds - MarketWatch Depending on how long this revenue shortfall lasts, there could be some impact on municipal bond prices from certain issuers.
Here’s why U.S. struggles with the coronavirus could lead to Europe’s stock market taking the lead - MarketWatch I have started to shift some money into international stocks. So far, the amount does not come close to 1 baby step.
The coronavirus crisis is costing states and locals hundreds of billions, analysis finds - MarketWatch Depending on how long this revenue shortfall lasts, there could be some impact on municipal bond prices from certain issuers.
Here’s why U.S. struggles with the coronavirus could lead to Europe’s stock market taking the lead - MarketWatch I have started to shift some money into international stocks. So far, the amount does not come close to 1 baby step.
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Trump:
Trump thanks 'great people' shown in Twitter video in which a man chants 'white power' Donald clams that he did not hear the man chant "white power". I doubt his denial. This is just one way that he connects with the republican base.
Trump Retweets Video of White St. Louis Couple Waving Guns at Peaceful Protesters; White couple who pointed guns at St. Louis protesters claims "angry mob" threatened them-CBS News The man, who is an attorney, had an automatic weapon
The Trump Administration is doing whatever they can to protect Confederate statues including the threat to withhold federal funds unless a greater effort is made to protect them. Interior Secretary threatens to withhold funds from state and local governments over monument protection
Last April, Trump retweeted a post that contained the hashtag "#FireFauci". Donald was asked whether he saw the hashtag before retweeting it. He shot back: "Yeah, I notice everything". Coronavirus: Trump insists he never planned to fire Fauci, despite sharing tweet calling for his sacking | The Independent (video embedded)
PolitiFact | Fact-checking Trump’s visit to Wisconsin Trump repeats an array of false and misleading claims.
In the latest poll, 81% of republicans stated that Donald was honest. National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 - Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Points | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (Question # 11) A somewhat smaller percentage of republicans view Donald as a good role model for their children (72%). 72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children'
From pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials - CNN (Carl Bernstein article) Trump was 'near-sadistic' in phone calls with female world leaders, according to CNN report on classified calls;
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Trump and Russia:
Lincoln Project Take: Bounty - YouTube; Betrayed - YouTube; Fellow Traveler - YouTube
Donald claims that no one told him that Russia was paying people to kill American soldiers and referred to the entire matter as another made up Fake News Hoax:
So Donald is claiming that multiple media organizations created the story and have no sources for it.
Trump Calls Bounty Report A 'Hoax' Despite Briefing Of Congress : NPR
When he published the preceding tweets, Trump had been briefed on the intelligence. Consequently, his tweets indicate that he supports Russia's denial. White House says Trump has now been briefed on Russian bounty intel | TheHill
Republican senators and congressman are standing behind Trump's refusal to respond, claiming in effect that the intelligence was merely an unverified rumor. Senate Republicans defend Trump's response on Russian bounties Senator Ron Johnson (R-WIS) further claimed that several Democrats had access to the same intelligence and were not "alarmed" by it. Those republicans have decided to go full kamikaze in their servile defense.
Pelosi denies that she was briefed on the matter: "Pelosi, who indicated that congressional leaders were not briefed on the matter" Top intel officials brief Pelosi and congressional leaders (7/2/20) on reported Russian bounty on US troops - ABC News Republicans had been claiming that the Democrats receive copies of the Presidential Daily Briefing.
Russian bounties to Taliban-linked militants are believed to have resulted in the deaths of U.S. service members, according to intelligence assessments - The Washington Post
Trump Got Written Briefing in February on Possible Russian Bounties, Officials Say - The New York Times, republished at MSN: Trump Got Written Briefing in February on Possible Russian Bounties, Officials Say
Data on Financial Transfers Bolstered Suspicions That Russia Offered Bounties - The New York Times
Afghan Contractor Handed Out Russian Cash to Kill Americans, Officials Say
There seems to be a consensus that this claim was included in Trump's daily briefing material, which was probably not read. I doubt that Trump has read a single daily intelligence briefing report. I found this article from 2018 that claimed that Donald refused to read those reports. Breaking with tradition, Trump skips president’s written intelligence report and relies on oral briefings - The Washington Post (2/9/18 article)("Several intelligence experts said that the president’s aversion to diving deeper into written intelligence details — the “homework” that past presidents have done to familiarize themselves with foreign policy and national security — makes both him and the country more vulnerable."
This material was reportedly in the 2/27/20 intelligence brief. Donald was too busy watching Fox News, tweeting, attending a 45 minute meeting with the actor Dean Cain about his "conservative" play "FBI Lovebirds" and holding a conference with two Fox news personalities called Diamond and Silk who were recently fired by Fox for spreading false information. He was just too occupied to do the main job of any President. Trump met Diamond and Silk on day his intel brief 'warned about Russian bounties for US troops' | Daily Mail Online; Fox News Cuts Ties With Diamond & Silk, Unofficial Trump ‘Advisers’ Who Spread Bonkers Coronavirus Claims
It is unclear whether the intelligence about Russia paying bounties to kill U.S. soldiers was included in the verbal briefing that occurs two or three times per week. Donald's recently installed National Security advisor, Robert C. O'Brien who is a 100% pure Trumpster, claims that Donald was not verbally told about it in February. O'Brien says top CIA official decided against briefing Trump on Russia bounty intel - CBS News
If Trump was briefed in February, he did nothing other than to demand Russia be allowed to rejoin the G-8 and to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany. G7 leaders reject Russia's return after Trump summit invite - BBC News; Trump says it's 'common sense' to include Russia in G7 - Reuters; Why Trump's plan to withdraw US troops has dismayed Germany - BBC News
Trump Stirs New Alarm Over Russia by Dismissing Bounty Claims
See also, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials, from pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers ("President Donald Trump has publicly shrugged off allegations that Russia offered bounties to kill American troops in Afghanistan, reigniting concerns that he’s more interested in preserving ties with the Kremlin than defending U.S. interests.")
Opinion | Why Does Trump Put Russia First? - The New York Times This opinion column was written by Susan Rice, who is on Joe Biden's short list for V-P.
Trump's resistance led intel agencies to brief him less and less on Russia Donald is far more likely to believe Putin than his own intelligence agencies.
Trump Appointment of Anthony Tata:
Top Pentagon nominee Anthony Tata pushed conspiracy theories that former CIA director tried to overthrow Trump and even have him assassinated Trump has nominated Mr. Tata to the third most important Pentagon post. His qualifications for that important job include accusing (1) Obama of being a muslim terrorist leader; (2) Obama of being an insurgent trying to overthrow the American way of life; (3) Obama of being a Manchurian candidate intent on destroying America on behalf of Russia, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood since he hated the U.S.; (3) Michele Obama of "borderline treason; and (4) a former CIA Director of plotting to assassinate Trump. Tata comes out of the OAN intellectual playbook, though more outlandish. Meet the Propagandists and Conspiracy Theorists Behind the One America News Network OAN is Trump's new favorite "news" network.
Trump thanks 'great people' shown in Twitter video in which a man chants 'white power' Donald clams that he did not hear the man chant "white power". I doubt his denial. This is just one way that he connects with the republican base.
Trump Retweets Video of White St. Louis Couple Waving Guns at Peaceful Protesters; White couple who pointed guns at St. Louis protesters claims "angry mob" threatened them-CBS News The man, who is an attorney, had an automatic weapon
The Trump Administration is doing whatever they can to protect Confederate statues including the threat to withhold federal funds unless a greater effort is made to protect them. Interior Secretary threatens to withhold funds from state and local governments over monument protection
PolitiFact | Fact-checking Trump’s visit to Wisconsin Trump repeats an array of false and misleading claims.
In the latest poll, 81% of republicans stated that Donald was honest. National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020 - Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Points | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (Question # 11) A somewhat smaller percentage of republicans view Donald as a good role model for their children (72%). 72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children'
From pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials - CNN (Carl Bernstein article) Trump was 'near-sadistic' in phone calls with female world leaders, according to CNN report on classified calls;
++
Trump and Russia:
Lincoln Project Take: Bounty - YouTube; Betrayed - YouTube; Fellow Traveler - YouTube
Donald claims that no one told him that Russia was paying people to kill American soldiers and referred to the entire matter as another made up Fake News Hoax:
Trump Calls Bounty Report A 'Hoax' Despite Briefing Of Congress : NPR
When he published the preceding tweets, Trump had been briefed on the intelligence. Consequently, his tweets indicate that he supports Russia's denial. White House says Trump has now been briefed on Russian bounty intel | TheHill
Republican senators and congressman are standing behind Trump's refusal to respond, claiming in effect that the intelligence was merely an unverified rumor. Senate Republicans defend Trump's response on Russian bounties Senator Ron Johnson (R-WIS) further claimed that several Democrats had access to the same intelligence and were not "alarmed" by it. Those republicans have decided to go full kamikaze in their servile defense.
Pelosi denies that she was briefed on the matter: "Pelosi, who indicated that congressional leaders were not briefed on the matter" Top intel officials brief Pelosi and congressional leaders (7/2/20) on reported Russian bounty on US troops - ABC News Republicans had been claiming that the Democrats receive copies of the Presidential Daily Briefing.
Russian bounties to Taliban-linked militants are believed to have resulted in the deaths of U.S. service members, according to intelligence assessments - The Washington Post
Trump Got Written Briefing in February on Possible Russian Bounties, Officials Say - The New York Times, republished at MSN: Trump Got Written Briefing in February on Possible Russian Bounties, Officials Say
Data on Financial Transfers Bolstered Suspicions That Russia Offered Bounties - The New York Times
Afghan Contractor Handed Out Russian Cash to Kill Americans, Officials Say
There seems to be a consensus that this claim was included in Trump's daily briefing material, which was probably not read. I doubt that Trump has read a single daily intelligence briefing report. I found this article from 2018 that claimed that Donald refused to read those reports. Breaking with tradition, Trump skips president’s written intelligence report and relies on oral briefings - The Washington Post (2/9/18 article)("Several intelligence experts said that the president’s aversion to diving deeper into written intelligence details — the “homework” that past presidents have done to familiarize themselves with foreign policy and national security — makes both him and the country more vulnerable."
This material was reportedly in the 2/27/20 intelligence brief. Donald was too busy watching Fox News, tweeting, attending a 45 minute meeting with the actor Dean Cain about his "conservative" play "FBI Lovebirds" and holding a conference with two Fox news personalities called Diamond and Silk who were recently fired by Fox for spreading false information. He was just too occupied to do the main job of any President. Trump met Diamond and Silk on day his intel brief 'warned about Russian bounties for US troops' | Daily Mail Online; Fox News Cuts Ties With Diamond & Silk, Unofficial Trump ‘Advisers’ Who Spread Bonkers Coronavirus Claims
It is unclear whether the intelligence about Russia paying bounties to kill U.S. soldiers was included in the verbal briefing that occurs two or three times per week. Donald's recently installed National Security advisor, Robert C. O'Brien who is a 100% pure Trumpster, claims that Donald was not verbally told about it in February. O'Brien says top CIA official decided against briefing Trump on Russia bounty intel - CBS News
If Trump was briefed in February, he did nothing other than to demand Russia be allowed to rejoin the G-8 and to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany. G7 leaders reject Russia's return after Trump summit invite - BBC News; Trump says it's 'common sense' to include Russia in G7 - Reuters; Why Trump's plan to withdraw US troops has dismayed Germany - BBC News
Trump Stirs New Alarm Over Russia by Dismissing Bounty Claims
See also, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials, from pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers ("President Donald Trump has publicly shrugged off allegations that Russia offered bounties to kill American troops in Afghanistan, reigniting concerns that he’s more interested in preserving ties with the Kremlin than defending U.S. interests.")
Opinion | Why Does Trump Put Russia First? - The New York Times This opinion column was written by Susan Rice, who is on Joe Biden's short list for V-P.
Trump's resistance led intel agencies to brief him less and less on Russia Donald is far more likely to believe Putin than his own intelligence agencies.
Trump Appointment of Anthony Tata:
Top Pentagon nominee Anthony Tata pushed conspiracy theories that former CIA director tried to overthrow Trump and even have him assassinated Trump has nominated Mr. Tata to the third most important Pentagon post. His qualifications for that important job include accusing (1) Obama of being a muslim terrorist leader; (2) Obama of being an insurgent trying to overthrow the American way of life; (3) Obama of being a Manchurian candidate intent on destroying America on behalf of Russia, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood since he hated the U.S.; (3) Michele Obama of "borderline treason; and (4) a former CIA Director of plotting to assassinate Trump. Tata comes out of the OAN intellectual playbook, though more outlandish. Meet the Propagandists and Conspiracy Theorists Behind the One America News Network OAN is Trump's new favorite "news" network.
Read this guys recent statements: Top Pentagon policy nominee has a history of Islamophobic and offensive comments;
Democrats on key Senate committee oppose Pentagon pick as more inflammatory tweets emerge;
Top Pentagon nominee pushed conspiracy theories that former CIA director tried to overthrow Trump and even have him assassinated
When the former CIA Director John Brennan quoted Cicero in a tweet, Tata maintained that he was giving an order to assassinate Trump:
When a reader challenged his claim, this was Tata's reply:
Tata claimed that Brennan was a communist and a agent of Russia.
And this is the kind of guy that Trump wants in important policy making positions.
And this is the kind of guy that Trump wants in important policy making positions.
I am just surprised that Donald has not yet nominated Alex Jones to be Secretary of State. Alex is one of Donald's favorites. Opinion | The Alex Jones Presidency - The New York Times Maybe that will be a second term appointment.
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Trump Fans the Flames of Division:
With ‘kung flu,’ Trump sparks backlash over racist language — and a rallying cry for supporters I don't believe that calling Covid-19 nasty names will stop its spread.
Trump says Obama may have committed treason | TheHill
Trump, in a hole, digs deeper into racial incitement
Why is Trump more concerned about preserving glorifications to confederate generals who fought against the United States Army to support slavery?
Trump revives a loser of an issue: Banning flag burning-Los Angeles Times How many examples can Donald cite where someone burned an American Flag in the U.S. He does not even bother to identify instances where this has occurred that would justify making it an issue. The Supreme Court has held that flag burning is protected First Amendment speech. When the Supreme Court ruled to allow American flag burning | The National Constitution Center; Texas v. Johnson, 491 U.S. 397 (1989)
I would agree that burning the flag is offensive, but it is extremely rare. Anyone who does it is best ignored altogether.
Republicans have tried as recently as 2006 to pass a constitutional amendment to punish flag burning. If Trump and his fellow republican demagogues believe that the Supreme Court would now overrule Texas v. Johnson, just have one of the republican governors file criminal charges against someone who burns the flag, assuming they can find one. That will start the ball rolling to see whether the Supreme Court is still willing to find such acts as protected speech.
Trump: Black Lives Matter mural in NYC a 'symbol of hate' that would denigrate Fifth Avenue
‘He just floored it’: Detroit police SUV plows through group of protesters, flings people who climbed on hood
++++
The Rogue AG William Barr:
Federal prosecutor, alleging political interference in Stone case, names names - POLITICO
5 takeaways from the scathing testimony about William Barr’s Justice Department
Attorney General Barr ordered antitrust probes of 10 cannabis mergers, because he dislikes the industry, prosecutor says - MarketWatch Personal animus is not a reason for launching antitrust investigations.
Analysts say Barr is eroding Justice Department independence — without facing any real personal consequence
A clear sign of William Barr's scandalous abuse of power
How Far Bill Barr Has Fallen - The Atlantic
++++
The Modern Day GOP and the QAnon Conspiracy Movement:
“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level". Attributed by some to Mark Twain.
"Arguing with a fool shows that there are two".
Proverbs 26:4 and 26.5:
Do not answer a fool according to his folly,
Or you will also be like him.
Answer a fool as his folly deserves,
That he not be wise in his own eyes.
Proverbs 26:4-5 NIV - Do not answer a fool according to his - Bible Gateway
QAnon Is More Important Than You Think - The Atlantic
Most republicans have a mindset that permits a ready acceptance of fact free conspiracy theories.
Their leader, Demagogue Don, is the foremost spreader of baseless conspiracy theories probably in world history. There is no meaningful difference between Donald and Alex Jones.
Donald certainly known how to connect with the republican base through spreading fact free conspiracy theories, starting with the Obama birther conspiracy that jumped started his presidential bid among the True Believers. Donald was easily the most prominent person promoting the Obama birther conspiracy. 14 of Donald Trump's most outrageous 'birther' claims; Barack Obama citizenship conspiracy theories - Wikipedia This ability to connect with the republican mind is Donald's only genius quality.
Republicans even now doubt Obama was born in the U.S. Poll: Persistent Partisan Divide Over 'Birther' Question (Seventy-two percent of registered Republican voters still doubt President Obama’s citizenship.") A fact like his Hawaii birth certificate is dismissed as fabricated by Democrats in that state. Any fact free conspiracy theory adopted by republicans can never be disproved with accurate information and to even try is completely futile. You might as well try to put worms in their ears canals.
The latest conspiracy theory that has taken hold in republican ranks is the QAnon conspiracy movement, which, among other absurd claims, believes that "there is a secret pedophile operation run by the nation’s most prominent people, particularly those within the Democratic Party." Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia Republican and QAnon believer, favored to win U.S House seat - The Washington Post; What Is QAnon: Explaining the Internet Conspiracy Theory That Showed Up at a Trump Rally - The New York Times
Greene: “I’m very excited about that now there’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take this global cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles out, and I think we have the president to do it',” Marjorie Taylor Green - Qanon -Nov 26 2017 - YouTube
The republican senate candidate in Oregon is part of the QAnon conspiracy movement as well. Oregon GOP Senate Candidate Recites QAnon 'Oath of Office' on Video; G.O.P. Voters Back QAnon Conspiracy Promoter for U.S. Senate - The New York Times
A QAnon follower, Lauren Boebert, defeated the republican incumbent, the Trumpster Scott Tipton, in Colorado's 3rd congressional district. This is a GOP dominated, mostly rural district in western Colorado. Boebert's margin of victory was 54.6% to 45.4% for the republican incumbent. Boebert will face off with Diane Mitsch Bush in November.
Scott Tipton: Trump-backed five-term Republican lawmaker loses primary to far-right challenger Lauren Boebert;
US politics: QAnon-linked Lauren Boebert wins primary in Colorado -The Guardian
++++
Donald has repeatedly claimed that he has saved health insurance coverage for pre-existing conditions even as his Administration seeks to invalidate Obamacare. Trump administration urges Supreme Court to end Obamacare; PolitiFact | Trump’s claim that he ‘saved’ pre-ex conditions ‘part fantasy, part delusion’; Trump’s traffic jam of false claims on preexisting conditions - The Washington Post
Angry residents erupt at meeting over new mask ruleFlorida Anti Maskers| 'Anti-maskers' in Florida have bizarre reasons for not wearing masks, netizens have hilarious comebacks | Trending & Viral News Try to reason with those featured in the video.
Video of woman's tirade after refusing to wear a mask in Trader Joe's goes viral - ABC News
Trump's Unsupported Claim About Opportunity Zone Investments- FactCheck.org
Trump's Absentee vs. Mail-In Ballot Spin - FactCheck.org
In 2020, Mississippi has finally decided to remove the confederate flag from its state flag. Mississippi state legislature passes bill to remove Confederate symbol from state flag in historic vote Mississippi was going to be sanctioned by the Southeastern Conference and NCAA if the confederate flag was not removed. In 2001, voters in Mississippi voted by 65% to 35% to keep the confederate flag. Mississippi Votes by Wide Margin to Keep State Flag That Includes Confederate Emblem - The New York Times The voters have not been reformed on this issue. Money changed the minds of Mississippi's republican party that controls the state.
Three Words. 70 Cases. The Tragic History of ‘I Can’t Breathe.’ - The New York Times The NYT has found at least 70 examples of people, over the past decade, who died in police custody after saying "I can't breathe". The majority were held for nonviolent infractions, 911 calls about suspicious behavior, or concerns about the suspects mental health. "More than half were black".
Trump Falsely Claims Obama 'Destroyed' Maine Lobster Industry - FactCheck.org
Fact check: White House press secretary makes two false claims about the Iraq War in one sentence
+++
Trump Fans the Flames of Division:
With ‘kung flu,’ Trump sparks backlash over racist language — and a rallying cry for supporters I don't believe that calling Covid-19 nasty names will stop its spread.
Trump says Obama may have committed treason | TheHill
Trump, in a hole, digs deeper into racial incitement
Why is Trump more concerned about preserving glorifications to confederate generals who fought against the United States Army to support slavery?
Trump revives a loser of an issue: Banning flag burning-Los Angeles Times How many examples can Donald cite where someone burned an American Flag in the U.S. He does not even bother to identify instances where this has occurred that would justify making it an issue. The Supreme Court has held that flag burning is protected First Amendment speech. When the Supreme Court ruled to allow American flag burning | The National Constitution Center; Texas v. Johnson, 491 U.S. 397 (1989)
I would agree that burning the flag is offensive, but it is extremely rare. Anyone who does it is best ignored altogether.
Republicans have tried as recently as 2006 to pass a constitutional amendment to punish flag burning. If Trump and his fellow republican demagogues believe that the Supreme Court would now overrule Texas v. Johnson, just have one of the republican governors file criminal charges against someone who burns the flag, assuming they can find one. That will start the ball rolling to see whether the Supreme Court is still willing to find such acts as protected speech.
Trump: Black Lives Matter mural in NYC a 'symbol of hate' that would denigrate Fifth Avenue
‘He just floored it’: Detroit police SUV plows through group of protesters, flings people who climbed on hood
++++
The Rogue AG William Barr:
Federal prosecutor, alleging political interference in Stone case, names names - POLITICO
5 takeaways from the scathing testimony about William Barr’s Justice Department
Attorney General Barr ordered antitrust probes of 10 cannabis mergers, because he dislikes the industry, prosecutor says - MarketWatch Personal animus is not a reason for launching antitrust investigations.
Analysts say Barr is eroding Justice Department independence — without facing any real personal consequence
A clear sign of William Barr's scandalous abuse of power
How Far Bill Barr Has Fallen - The Atlantic
++++
The Modern Day GOP and the QAnon Conspiracy Movement:
“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level". Attributed by some to Mark Twain.
"Arguing with a fool shows that there are two".
Proverbs 26:4 and 26.5:
Do not answer a fool according to his folly,
Or you will also be like him.
Answer a fool as his folly deserves,
That he not be wise in his own eyes.
Proverbs 26:4-5 NIV - Do not answer a fool according to his - Bible Gateway
QAnon Is More Important Than You Think - The Atlantic
Most republicans have a mindset that permits a ready acceptance of fact free conspiracy theories.
Their leader, Demagogue Don, is the foremost spreader of baseless conspiracy theories probably in world history. There is no meaningful difference between Donald and Alex Jones.
Donald certainly known how to connect with the republican base through spreading fact free conspiracy theories, starting with the Obama birther conspiracy that jumped started his presidential bid among the True Believers. Donald was easily the most prominent person promoting the Obama birther conspiracy. 14 of Donald Trump's most outrageous 'birther' claims; Barack Obama citizenship conspiracy theories - Wikipedia This ability to connect with the republican mind is Donald's only genius quality.
Republicans even now doubt Obama was born in the U.S. Poll: Persistent Partisan Divide Over 'Birther' Question (Seventy-two percent of registered Republican voters still doubt President Obama’s citizenship.") A fact like his Hawaii birth certificate is dismissed as fabricated by Democrats in that state. Any fact free conspiracy theory adopted by republicans can never be disproved with accurate information and to even try is completely futile. You might as well try to put worms in their ears canals.
The latest conspiracy theory that has taken hold in republican ranks is the QAnon conspiracy movement, which, among other absurd claims, believes that "there is a secret pedophile operation run by the nation’s most prominent people, particularly those within the Democratic Party." Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia Republican and QAnon believer, favored to win U.S House seat - The Washington Post; What Is QAnon: Explaining the Internet Conspiracy Theory That Showed Up at a Trump Rally - The New York Times
Greene: “I’m very excited about that now there’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take this global cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles out, and I think we have the president to do it',” Marjorie Taylor Green - Qanon -Nov 26 2017 - YouTube
The republican senate candidate in Oregon is part of the QAnon conspiracy movement as well. Oregon GOP Senate Candidate Recites QAnon 'Oath of Office' on Video; G.O.P. Voters Back QAnon Conspiracy Promoter for U.S. Senate - The New York Times
A QAnon follower, Lauren Boebert, defeated the republican incumbent, the Trumpster Scott Tipton, in Colorado's 3rd congressional district. This is a GOP dominated, mostly rural district in western Colorado. Boebert's margin of victory was 54.6% to 45.4% for the republican incumbent. Boebert will face off with Diane Mitsch Bush in November.
Scott Tipton: Trump-backed five-term Republican lawmaker loses primary to far-right challenger Lauren Boebert;
US politics: QAnon-linked Lauren Boebert wins primary in Colorado -The Guardian
++++
Donald has repeatedly claimed that he has saved health insurance coverage for pre-existing conditions even as his Administration seeks to invalidate Obamacare. Trump administration urges Supreme Court to end Obamacare; PolitiFact | Trump’s claim that he ‘saved’ pre-ex conditions ‘part fantasy, part delusion’; Trump’s traffic jam of false claims on preexisting conditions - The Washington Post
Angry residents erupt at meeting over new mask ruleFlorida Anti Maskers| 'Anti-maskers' in Florida have bizarre reasons for not wearing masks, netizens have hilarious comebacks | Trending & Viral News Try to reason with those featured in the video.
Video of woman's tirade after refusing to wear a mask in Trader Joe's goes viral - ABC News
Trump's Unsupported Claim About Opportunity Zone Investments- FactCheck.org
Trump's Absentee vs. Mail-In Ballot Spin - FactCheck.org
In 2020, Mississippi has finally decided to remove the confederate flag from its state flag. Mississippi state legislature passes bill to remove Confederate symbol from state flag in historic vote Mississippi was going to be sanctioned by the Southeastern Conference and NCAA if the confederate flag was not removed. In 2001, voters in Mississippi voted by 65% to 35% to keep the confederate flag. Mississippi Votes by Wide Margin to Keep State Flag That Includes Confederate Emblem - The New York Times The voters have not been reformed on this issue. Money changed the minds of Mississippi's republican party that controls the state.
Three Words. 70 Cases. The Tragic History of ‘I Can’t Breathe.’ - The New York Times The NYT has found at least 70 examples of people, over the past decade, who died in police custody after saying "I can't breathe". The majority were held for nonviolent infractions, 911 calls about suspicious behavior, or concerns about the suspects mental health. "More than half were black".
Trump Falsely Claims Obama 'Destroyed' Maine Lobster Industry - FactCheck.org
Fact check: White House press secretary makes two false claims about the Iraq War in one sentence
+++++++
Covid-19 Updates:
This needs to be remembered: Trump claims coronavirus is ‘under control’ despite record-high cases (7/2/20).
New Daily COVID cases in US surpass 52,000; rise in 40 states (7/3/20)
So is Donald even connected to the real world?
How the World Missed Covid-19’s Silent Spread
Trump says increase of cases is 'great news' - ABC News
Texas issues state-wide order requiring face coverings (7/2/20)
A timeline of how Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus - Vox
Herman Cain is receiving treatment for coronavirus at an Atlanta hospital Cain had attended Donald's Mass Infection Event in Tulsa.
Fauci says no guarantee U.S. will have effective COVID-19 vaccine, warns spread 'could get very bad'
Fauci says U.S. coronavirus outbreak is 'going to be very disturbing,' could top 100,000 cases a day
Trump Inherited More Ventilators Than Have Been Distributed - FactCheck.org ("Contrary to President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that he inherited a Strategic National Stockpile with “empty” or “bare” cupboards, the federal government had more ventilators in stock than it ended up distributing amid the COVID-19 pandemic, FactCheck.org has learned.")
Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'substantial undercount': Yale study;U.S. COVID-19 death toll may be 28 percent higher than officially thought Trumpsters claim, without proof since no proof is needed in TrumpWorld, that the death toll is substantially inflated.
Coronavirus update: Americans will remain barred from European travel On a national level, the U.S. response has been incompetent as Trump and other republicans resist a national policy on mask wearing and social distancing.
World's dominant strain of coronavirus 'is 10 TIMES more infectious than the one that jumped to humans in China'; The coronavirus is mutating - The Washington Post Most Covid-19 infections in the U.S. have this mutation, which may make the virus more contagious. That conclusion is not certain however.
Only 26 Percent of Americans Trust Trump for Coronavirus Info, Poll Shows Among republicans, 66% trust Donald is telling the truth on matters relating to the U.S. pandemic.
Trump Falsely Says COVID-19 Surge 'Only' Due to Testing, Misleads on Deaths - FactCheck.org
Mike Pence in Dallas: Vice president wears mask but 100-person choir sings without them
Workers removed thousands of social distancing stickers before Trump’s Tulsa rally, according to video and a person familiar with the set-up - The Washington Post
 |
| As of 7/2/20 |
New Daily COVID cases in US surpass 52,000; rise in 40 states (7/3/20)
So is Donald even connected to the real world?
How the World Missed Covid-19’s Silent Spread
Trump says increase of cases is 'great news' - ABC News
Texas issues state-wide order requiring face coverings (7/2/20)
A timeline of how Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus - Vox
Herman Cain is receiving treatment for coronavirus at an Atlanta hospital Cain had attended Donald's Mass Infection Event in Tulsa.
Fauci says no guarantee U.S. will have effective COVID-19 vaccine, warns spread 'could get very bad'
Fauci says U.S. coronavirus outbreak is 'going to be very disturbing,' could top 100,000 cases a day
Trump Inherited More Ventilators Than Have Been Distributed - FactCheck.org ("Contrary to President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that he inherited a Strategic National Stockpile with “empty” or “bare” cupboards, the federal government had more ventilators in stock than it ended up distributing amid the COVID-19 pandemic, FactCheck.org has learned.")
Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'substantial undercount': Yale study;U.S. COVID-19 death toll may be 28 percent higher than officially thought Trumpsters claim, without proof since no proof is needed in TrumpWorld, that the death toll is substantially inflated.
Coronavirus update: Americans will remain barred from European travel On a national level, the U.S. response has been incompetent as Trump and other republicans resist a national policy on mask wearing and social distancing.
World's dominant strain of coronavirus 'is 10 TIMES more infectious than the one that jumped to humans in China'; The coronavirus is mutating - The Washington Post Most Covid-19 infections in the U.S. have this mutation, which may make the virus more contagious. That conclusion is not certain however.
Only 26 Percent of Americans Trust Trump for Coronavirus Info, Poll Shows Among republicans, 66% trust Donald is telling the truth on matters relating to the U.S. pandemic.
Trump Falsely Says COVID-19 Surge 'Only' Due to Testing, Misleads on Deaths - FactCheck.org
Mike Pence in Dallas: Vice president wears mask but 100-person choir sings without them
Workers removed thousands of social distancing stickers before Trump’s Tulsa rally, according to video and a person familiar with the set-up - The Washington Post
A Texas border county had the coronavirus under control. Then the republican governor stepped in.
Face masks critical in preventing spread of COVID-19: Study found that wearing a face mask stopped person-to-person spread of the virus -- ScienceDaily
5 Questions: Stanford scientists on COVID-19 mask guidelines | News Center | Stanford Medicine
A California family lost a father to coronavirus and 28 family members got infected, son says
Michigan bar linked to more than 100 Covid-19 cases
Face masks critical in preventing spread of COVID-19: Study found that wearing a face mask stopped person-to-person spread of the virus -- ScienceDaily
5 Questions: Stanford scientists on COVID-19 mask guidelines | News Center | Stanford Medicine
A California family lost a father to coronavirus and 28 family members got infected, son says
Michigan bar linked to more than 100 Covid-19 cases
+++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
During the rally last Friday, I sold in one Roth IRA account most of the stock ETFs that were members of the Church That Is Working Now, including the bungee jumpers FDN, EBIZ and SKYY. The stocks owned by those ETFs appear over extended to me. I kept positions in another Roth IRA for now and in multiple taxable accounts.
During the rally last Friday, I sold in one Roth IRA account most of the stock ETFs that were members of the Church That Is Working Now, including the bungee jumpers FDN, EBIZ and SKYY. The stocks owned by those ETFs appear over extended to me. I kept positions in another Roth IRA for now and in multiple taxable accounts.
1. Small Ball:
A. Eliminated DOC-Sold 46+ at $17.66:
Recent History This Account:
Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)
Closing Price 7/2: DOC $17.47 -$0.12 -0.68%
Website: Physicians Realty Trust-Healthcare REIT Profit Snapshot: +$213.64
DOC SEC Filings
DOC 2019 Annual Report
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussion: Item # 1. A Bought 50 DOC at $15.96 and 45 at $12.96 and Sold 55 at $16.77 (4/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.44). I mentioned in that post that I would likely sell the remaining shares before the stock hit $18, noting that cash flow growth is uninspiring and properties purchased by DOC in recent years have been at relatively low cap rates. Increases in funds available for distributions have been accompanied by increases in the share count as DOC repeatedly sold more stock in public offerings.
Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining DOC at $17.1-Used Commission Free Trade (12/9/18 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92 (8/19/18 Post)
DOC Trading Profits To Date: $617.28 ($403.93 in prior trades)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share
Dividend growth is practically non-existent and will likely remain close to current levels for an extended period. The penny rate was at $.225 in 2014. The last increase was from $.225 to $.23 in 2017. Dividends - Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE: DOC) Funds available for distribution per share are not growing sufficiently to support higher dividends.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/1/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Q/E 3/31/20 FAD Per share = $.2489 with dividend at $.23.
There will be some quarter to quarter variation in FAD per share. Y-O-Y growth has been negligible.
2019 FAD Per Share: $.930724
2017 FAD Per Share: $.928983
Those calculations are made using the data found at pages 52-52 of the 2019 Annual Report.
I still own a few shares in Roth IRA accounts.
B. Bought 100 JDD at $7.51 and Sold 50 at $8.01 after ex-dividend date:
Quote: JDD | Nuveen Diversified Dividend & Income Fund Overview
Closing Price 7/2: JDD $7.86 0.00 0.00%
"The Fund invests approximately equal proportions in 1) U.S. and foreign dividend-paying common stocks, 2) dividend-paying common Real Estate Investment Trusts issued by real estate companies, 3) emerging markets sovereign debt, and 4) senior loans. The Fund expects to invest between 40% and 70% of its managed assets in equity security holdings and between 30% and 60% of its managed assets in debt security holdings. Under normal circumstances, the Fund's target weighting is approximately 50% equity and 50% debt."
Sold 50 at $8.01 after quarterly ex dividend date:
Profit Snapshot 50 Shares: +$25.24
Sponsor's Website: JDD - Nuveen Diversified Dividend and Income Fund
Data Date of 5/26/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.93
Closing Market Price: $7.55
A. Eliminated DOC-Sold 46+ at $17.66:
Recent History This Account:
Closing Price 7/2: DOC $17.47 -$0.12 -0.68%
Website: Physicians Realty Trust-Healthcare REIT Profit Snapshot: +$213.64
DOC 2019 Annual Report
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussion: Item # 1. A Bought 50 DOC at $15.96 and 45 at $12.96 and Sold 55 at $16.77 (4/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.44). I mentioned in that post that I would likely sell the remaining shares before the stock hit $18, noting that cash flow growth is uninspiring and properties purchased by DOC in recent years have been at relatively low cap rates. Increases in funds available for distributions have been accompanied by increases in the share count as DOC repeatedly sold more stock in public offerings.
Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining DOC at $17.1-Used Commission Free Trade (12/9/18 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92 (8/19/18 Post)
DOC Trading Profits To Date: $617.28 ($403.93 in prior trades)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share
Dividend growth is practically non-existent and will likely remain close to current levels for an extended period. The penny rate was at $.225 in 2014. The last increase was from $.225 to $.23 in 2017. Dividends - Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE: DOC) Funds available for distribution per share are not growing sufficiently to support higher dividends.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/1/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
There will be some quarter to quarter variation in FAD per share. Y-O-Y growth has been negligible.
2019 FAD Per Share: $.930724
2017 FAD Per Share: $.928983
Those calculations are made using the data found at pages 52-52 of the 2019 Annual Report.
I still own a few shares in Roth IRA accounts.
B. Bought 100 JDD at $7.51 and Sold 50 at $8.01 after ex-dividend date:
Quote: JDD | Nuveen Diversified Dividend & Income Fund Overview
Closing Price 7/2: JDD $7.86 0.00 0.00%
"The Fund invests approximately equal proportions in 1) U.S. and foreign dividend-paying common stocks, 2) dividend-paying common Real Estate Investment Trusts issued by real estate companies, 3) emerging markets sovereign debt, and 4) senior loans. The Fund expects to invest between 40% and 70% of its managed assets in equity security holdings and between 30% and 60% of its managed assets in debt security holdings. Under normal circumstances, the Fund's target weighting is approximately 50% equity and 50% debt."
Sold 50 at $8.01 after quarterly ex dividend date:
Sponsor's Website: JDD - Nuveen Diversified Dividend and Income Fund
Data Date of 5/26/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.93
Closing Market Price: $7.55
Discount: -15.45%
Sourced from JDD-CEF Connect
JDD SEC Filings
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Nuveen Diversified Dividend and Income Fund (period ending 12/31/19)
Leveraged: Yes, the fund had outstanding a $115M revolving credit agreement and had borrowed $97.9M of that amount as of 12/31/19. "Interest is charged on the Borrowings drawn amount at a rate per annum equal to the higher of (a) one-month LIBOR rate plus 0.70% or (b) the Federal Funds Rate plus 0.70%. The Fund also accrued a 0.15% per annum commitment fee on the undrawn balance based on the maximum commitment amount of the Borrowings to the extent the unused portion of the Borrowings is less than 50% of the maximum commitment amount, otherwise the per annum commitment fee is 0.25%." The Federal Funds rate is currently in the 0%-.25% range. The 1 month Libor rate is in that range as well. 1 Month LIBOR | 30 Day Libor Rate Current Interest Rates Index One Borrowing costs have come down after the FED relaunched its Jihad Against the Saving Class, ultimately reinstituting ZIRP.
Recent Dividend History: Paid Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20 (owned 100 shares as of)
I discussed the reasons for the two trades in this comment
Sourced from JDD-CEF Connect
JDD SEC Filings
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Nuveen Diversified Dividend and Income Fund (period ending 12/31/19)
Leveraged: Yes, the fund had outstanding a $115M revolving credit agreement and had borrowed $97.9M of that amount as of 12/31/19. "Interest is charged on the Borrowings drawn amount at a rate per annum equal to the higher of (a) one-month LIBOR rate plus 0.70% or (b) the Federal Funds Rate plus 0.70%. The Fund also accrued a 0.15% per annum commitment fee on the undrawn balance based on the maximum commitment amount of the Borrowings to the extent the unused portion of the Borrowings is less than 50% of the maximum commitment amount, otherwise the per annum commitment fee is 0.25%." The Federal Funds rate is currently in the 0%-.25% range. The 1 month Libor rate is in that range as well. 1 Month LIBOR | 30 Day Libor Rate Current Interest Rates Index One Borrowing costs have come down after the FED relaunched its Jihad Against the Saving Class, ultimately reinstituting ZIRP.
Recent Dividend History: Paid Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20 (owned 100 shares as of)
I discussed the reasons for the two trades in this comment
C. Started QUAL as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $93.3:
Quote: QUAL | iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/2: QUAL $97.02 +$0.59 +0.61%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | QUAL ("large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks exhibiting positive fundamentals (high return on equity, stable year-over-year earnings growth and low financial leverage)."
Expense Ratio: .15%
Holdings: 125 stocks as of 6/25
Recent Dividends:
Some Holdings as of 6/25/20:
Closing Price 7/2: QUAL $97.02 +$0.59 +0.61%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | QUAL ("large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks exhibiting positive fundamentals (high return on equity, stable year-over-year earnings growth and low financial leverage)."
Expense Ratio: .15%
Holdings: 125 stocks as of 6/25
Recent Dividends:
D. Started VTI as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $148.85:
Quote: VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/2: VTI $158.07 +$0.63 +0.40%
Sponsor's Website: VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard
Expense Ratio: .03%
Holdings as of 5/31/20: 3,493 stocks
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
E. Pared ARCC-Sold Highest Cost 20 Shares at $15.45:
Quote: Ares Capital Corp- A BDC
Closing Price 7/2: ARCC $14.48 -$0.18 -1.23%
Website: Ares Capital Corporation
2019 Annual Report
ARCC SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot: +$6.5
I discussed this pare in a 5/26/20 comment.
Average Cost Before Pare = $12.83
Average Cost After Pare = $11.94
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 5/26/20 |
In 2019 ARCC paid a 2 cent per share special dividend with each regular quarterly dividend.
ARCC-Dividends
Dividend Yield at $11.94 TC = 13.4% (current regular dividend only)
The 6/30/20 dividend reinvestment raised my average cost per share to $12 (now at 53+ shares)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.C. Added 5 ARCC at $14.3; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.67; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.4; 5 at $12; 5 at $11.74; 5 at $10.44; 5 at $9.4 (4/4/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussions:
Item # 1.C. Sold 50 ARCC at $16.98 (6/18/18 Post);
Item 2.A. Eliminated ARCC-Sold Remaining 50 Shares at $17.25 (2/15/17 Post);
Item # 1, Sold 102+ ARCC at $15.32 and 50 at $15.26: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 8/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Sold 100 ARCC at $17.195 (4/28/15 Post);
Item # 3 Sold 100 ARCC Roth IRA at $17.05 (2/25/15 Post); Sold 100 ARCC at $17.54-IRAs in Two 50 Share Lots (9/13/12 Post)
Net Asset Value Per Share History: Better than Most, if not all, Externally Managed BDCs
3/21/20: $15.58 10-Q 12/31/19: $17.32 10-K
9/30/19: $17.26 10-Q
9/30/18: $17.16
12/21/17: $16.65
9/30/17: $16.49 10-Q
6/30/17: $16.54 10-Q
12/30/16: $16.45
9/30/16: $16.59
6/30/16: $16.62
3/31/16: $16.5
12/31/14: $16.82
9/30/13: $16.35
3/31/12: $15.47
6/30/10: $14.11
12/31/09: $11.44 10-K
9/30/09: $11.16 10-Q
12/31/08: $11.27
6/30/08: $12.83 10-Q
12/31/07: $15.47 10-K at page 57
9/30/07: $15.74
3/31/05: $14.96
12/30/16: $16.45
9/30/16: $16.59
6/30/16: $16.62
3/31/16: $16.5
12/31/14: $16.82
9/30/13: $16.35
3/31/12: $15.47
6/30/10: $14.11
12/31/09: $11.44 10-K
9/30/09: $11.16 10-Q
12/31/08: $11.27
6/30/08: $12.83 10-Q
12/31/07: $15.47 10-K at page 57
9/30/07: $15.74
3/31/05: $14.96
The GAAP net loss was $612M or $1.42 per share, triggered mostly by unrealized losses of $880 million, "largely due to widening credit spreads as market participants expected a higher yield on similar investments given the significant market volatility generated by the the COVID-19 pandemic. To a lesser extent, net unrealized losses on investments for the quarter for certain of Ares Capital’s portfolio companies also reflected other factors such as specific industry concerns, uncertainty about the duration of business shutdowns and near-term liquidity needs."
ARCC Trading Profits to Date: $531.91 ($525.41 in prior trades)
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividends received
F. Restarted SLRC-Bought 5 at $16.4; 5 at $16.1; 5 at $15.7 :
Quote: Solar Capital Ltd.-A BDC
Closing Price 7/2: SLRC $16.66 +$0.31 +1.90%
Website: Home
SEC Filings
Management: External
2019 Annual Report-Form 10-K (risk factor summary starts at page 29 and ends at page 62)
Current Position: 15 shares
Average Cost Per Share: $16.03
Dividend: Currently, quarterly at $.41 per share ($1.64 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/20
Dividend Yield at $16.03 = 10.23%
Net Asset Value Per Share History: 10-Q Filings
3/31/20: $19.24
12/31/19: $21.44
9/30/19: $21.90
9/30/18: $21.95
3/31/18: $21.87
9/30/17: $21.80
9/30/16: $21.72
9/30/15: $21.52
9/30/14: $22.34
9/30/13: $22.25
9/30/12: $22.7
9/30/11: $21.2
3/31/2010: $22.18 (first 10-Q)
Initial Public Offering February 2010: Prospectus (priced at $18.5 to the public and $17.205 to the underwriters)
5 Year Financial Data: Form 10-K at page 70
In January 2013, the company priced a common stock offering to the public at $24.4 per share: Prospectus Supplement, see also discussion at pages 76-77 in 2017 Form 10-K.
I view it as a positive that this BDC has avoided a stock offering since January 2013. Most externally managed BDCs have repeatedly sold stock at below net asset value per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Net asset value per share declined approximately 10.3% from 10.31/20 "driven primarily by unrealized mark-to-market losses"
Net investment income: $15.9 million
Net investment income per share: $0.38 (below current dividend payout)
As of March 31, 2020, 100% and 98.2%, on a fair value basis and cost basis, respectively, of the Company’s portfolio was performing, with one investment on non-accrual.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. Consideration will be given to selling the highest cost lot or lots when and if it becomes profitable to do so.
G. Restarted KEY-Bought 10 at $12.35; 2 at $12.1:
Closing Price 7/2: KEY $11.71 +$0.02 +0.17%
KEY | KeyCorp Analyst Estimates
KEY SEC Filings
KEY is a super regional bank holding company. "Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, Key is one of the nation’s largest bank-based financial services companies, with assets of approximately $156.2 billion at March 31, 2020. Key provides deposit, lending, cash management, and investment services to individuals and businesses in 15 states under the name KeyBank National Association through a network of more than 1,000 branches and approximately 1,400 ATMs."
Last Eliminated: Item # 1 Sold 140 KEY at $11.8 (7/27/2013 Post)(profit snapshot = $429.32)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.185 per share ($.74 annually)
Stock Splits & Dividends
Last Ex Dividend: 6/1/20 (owned 12 as of)
Average Cost Per Share (12 shares) = $12.18
Dividend Yield at $12.18 = 6.08%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. $.12, negatively impacted by COVID-19
"Net loan charge-offs for the first quarter of 2020 totaled $84 million, or .35% of average total loans.
Key’s provision for credit losses was $359 million for the first quarter of 2020. These results compare to $62 million for the first quarter of 2019 and $93 million, excluding the fraud loss, for the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in provision for credit losses is mainly attributable to the significant change in the economic scenario from the COVID-19 pandemic.
At March 31, 2020, Key’s nonperforming loans totaled $632 million, which represented .61% of period-end portfolio loans.
Nonperforming assets at March 31, 2020, totaled $844 million, and represented .82% of period-end portfolio loans and OREO and other nonperforming assets. These results compare to .66% at March 31, 2019, and .75% at December 31, 2019."
Capital Ratios:
Total KEY Realized Gains = $614.82
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares.
H. Restarted LRGF-Bought 5 at $31.19 :
Closing Price 7/2: LRGF $31.17 +$0.18 +0.60%
Expense Ratio: .2%
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Sold 15 at $32.47 (11/6/19 Post)
Top 10 Holdings:
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Fidelity overview of factor investing.pdf
I. Started FINX-Bought 5 at $33.69; 1 at $33.14:
Quote: FINX | Global X FinTech ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/2: FINX $34.12 +$0.27 +0.80%
Sponsor's Website: FinTech ETF
Expense Ratio: .68%
Top 10 Holdings:
J. Pared DUK-Sold 2 at $91.81 (part of highest cost lot) and Bought 1 at $84.3; 1 at $82.78; 1 at $80.64; 1 at $79.63; 1 at $78.6:
Sold 2 at $91.81
Quote: Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)
DUK | Duke Energy Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Buys:
Closing Price 7/2: DUK $81.84 -$0.09 -0.11%
DUK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
New Average Cost After Pares & Adds = $84.07
For a utility, DUK has a decent dividend growth history.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20
Yield at Average Cost: 4.5%
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.H. (5/16/20 Post)
I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
Maximum Position This Account: 30 shares
Current Position This Account: 23+ shares
Maximum Position All Accounts: 50 shares
I have started to buy 1 share lots in a Roth IRA account and in another taxable account.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.G. Sold 1 DUK at $100.73 (3/21/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Sold 2 DUK at $97.05 (2/16/20 Post)
Five Year Chart
K. Eliminated ANGL-Sold 25 at $29.12:
Profit Snapshot: $58.44 (only 6/23/30 sell)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.K. Added to ANGL-Bought 13 at 27; 10 at $26.5 and Sold Highest cost lot at $27.85 (5/30/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: ANGL-VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF
I mentioned eliminating this position in a 6/24/20 comment.
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 6/1/20
2. Intermediate Term Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Bought Back 2 Ares Capital 4.2% SU Bonds at 96.380 Maturing on 6/10/24 and then Sold at 102.357:
Bought at 96.38
FIRNA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC)
ARCC SEC Filings
2019 ARCC Annual Report
Total Cost per bond= 96.480
YTM at Total Cost = 5.178%
Current Yield at Total Cost = 4.3532%
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Bought 2 ARES 4.2% SU at 91 and then Sold at 95.2 (6/6/20 Post) (profit snapshot =$80)
3. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added to TRPPRD-Bought 50 at C$13:
Quote: TRP-PD.TO
Closing Price 7/2: TRP-PD.TO C$12.96 +C$0.09 +0.70%
Issuer: TC Energy Corp. (TRP)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 TRPPRD at C$16.09 (11/2/19 Post)
Current Position: 100 shares
Security: Equity Preferred Floating Rate
Current Coupon: 3.903% (through 4/30/24)
Par Value: C$25
Current Yield at C$13 = 7.51%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/20 (owned 100 as of)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/20 (owned 100 as of)
Resets at a 2.38% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond
Dividends: Cumulative and Paid Quarterly
Stopper Clause: Yes
Next Coupon Reset Year: 2024
I also own a few common shares.
I also own a few common shares.
B. Added to EBGEF-Bought 10 at US$14.81:
Quote: EBGEF
Closing Price 7/2: EBGEF US$16.50 +US$0.44 +2.74%
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Added 10 EBGEF at US$13.1 (5/23/20 Post)
I now own 120 shares. Unlike other Enbridge preferred stocks, this one is priced in USDs, pays dividends in USDs and resets at a spread to the U.S. 5 year treasury every 5 years rather than the Canadian 5 year bond.
Security: Cumulative, reset equity preferred stock issued by Enbridge Inc priced in U.S.D.s and traded on the U.S. Grey Market.
Link to all ENB Preferred Shares and Hybrid Securities - Enbridge Inc. (prospectuses are linked)
Par Value: US$25
Current Coupon: 2.82% spread to the 5 year U.S. treasury note, resets every five years As with other Canadian resets, a fixed coupon was initially paid.
The quarterly fixed coupon penny rate was $.275 (.044 x. $25 par value = $1.1 annually 4 quarters = $.275)
When the coupon reset for five years effective for the 2019 second quarter, the new quarterly penny rate was $.33596 or a 22.17% increase
Current Coupon Penny Rate: Quarterly at $.33596 per share (or $1.34 rounded annually) The coupon is about 5.36% at that penny rate. The U.S. five year note would have been close to 2.56% on the reset date. 2019 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates The weakness in the price is mostly attributable IMO to a belief that the coupon will reset in March 2024 at much lower rate.
Next Reset: 3/1/24
Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20 (owned 120 as of)
Current Yield at $14.81 = 9.07%
4. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Started MBINP-Bought 10 at $24.01:
Closing Price 7/2: MBINP $25.10 +$0.05 +0.20%
This is a fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stock issued by the bank holding company Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
I mentioned buying this lot in a 5/29/20 comment.
MBIN SEC Filings
MBIN | Merchants Bancorp Analyst Estimates
SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 3/31/20
Security: Prospectus
Placement in the Capital Structure: Junior to all debt and senior only to common stock.
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Quarterly and non-cumulative
Recent Dividend Declaration: $.4375 per share, SEC Filed Press Release
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/20 (owned as of)
Fixed Coupon: 7% to but excluding 4/1/24
Floating Rate: staring on 4/1/24, if not called at the issuers option, coupon floats at a 460.5 basis points above the 3 month libor rate or the alternative rate specified in the prospectus.
Alternative Rate Mechanism for Float: Since Libor will soon be phased out, and will be gone before this preferred stock can turn into a floater, the applicable floating rate benchmark will be the one described here:
Stopper Clause: Yes, prevents the issuer from paying a cash dividend to the common shareholders (page S-3)
B. Eliminated Remaining ERPPRC-Sold 10 at $20.32:
Quote: EPR.PRC | EPR Properties 5.75% Cumulative Convertible Preferred Series C Overview
Closing Price 7/2: EPR-PC $18.65 +$0.25 +1.36%
Issuer: EPR Properties EPR)
EPR Properties Reports First Quarter 2020 Results The remainder of the year will be a disaster.
Profit Snapshot: $76.66 (only 6/19 sell)
As previously discussed, this is a busted convertible preferred stock. By busted, I am referring to the share price being so far below the conversion rate that the conversion option has no meaningful value. There have been downward adjustments to the original conversion price of 71.34 due to the payment of a common share dividend in excess of a specific amount as provided in the prospectus. Since the issuer has suspended common share dividend payments, there is not likely to be any further downward adjustments for an extended period of time IMO. Based on information supplied by EPR, the current conversion price is $60.43:
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.75%
Dividends: Quarterly
Yield at TC of $20.32: 7.07%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/29/20
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/29/20
Conversion Price: Subject to Adjustments
Last Discussed Item # 3.B. Added 2 EPRPRC at $15.24; 3 at $14.5; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $12.95; 1 at $11 and Sold 10 at $17.5 and 5 at $16.22 (5/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot: $16.6)
EPRPRC Trading Profits to Date: $656.54 ($579.88 in prior trades)
Other Trade Discussions:
Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC at $27.49 (10/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.58)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $23.78-Used Commission Free Trade (4/23/18 Post)
Item # 1.B. Sold 50 EPRPRC at $28.48 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $224.22)-Item # 1 Bought 50 EPRPRC at $24 (4/23/18)
Item # 3 Sold 50 EPRPRC-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $160.48)
Recent EPR Press Release:
EPR Properties Provides Company Update and Announces Earnings Conference Call ("Since the prior update, tenants and borrowers have paid approximately 15% of April 2020 contractual base rent and mortgage payments. The Company has agreed to defer the rent and mortgage payments on a month-to-month basis for substantially all of the customers that have not paid rent for the month of April 2020.")
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I've read accounts of covid illness lasting a long time, with all sorts of impacts in a big enough subset of cases. That too seems to be an area missed by the market recovery crowd.
ReplyDeleteBecause it's so unpredictable and potentially harmful for even long term, more cautions are needed than if it was a flu-like virus that will continue to come up until herd immunity or a vaccine.
With the Trump rallies I'd say they're good for herd immunity, but they aren't very well attended.
(Also attendees seem to yawn a lot.)
---
From this article you posted"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-swan-author-says-if-investors-dont-use-a-tail-hedge-he-recommends-not-being-in-the-marketwere-facing-a-huge-amount-of-uncertainty-2020-06-26?mod=home-page
I wonder if Cboe Eurekahedge Tail Risk Volatility Hedge Fund and Universa (managed fund) are places to put a few dollars.
They've already run up, but it'd be a bet that they are decent at judging what to do during a pandemic.
It seems better than betting only on downside, but instead on volatility. IF I understand it correctly.
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Watching a Lincoln add moved into another youtube about translators. Can you imagine having the job of translating Trump's lack of sentences?
--
There is a strong possibility that the Redskins will finally change their name from that ethnic slur. The owner is still resistance. But there's economic pressure.
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Some interesting placeholder stocks to look into!
KEY isn't listed as placeholder. Time to dip into regional banks? I've been to Key banks.
Land: With placeholders, I am just preparing for the next downturn.
DeleteI suspect that the U.S. will hit 100K daily confirmed infections before August.
The last tally was 57,497 new daily confirmed infections.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-new-coronavirus-cases-hit-all-time-high-of-57497-as-covid-19-surges-in-florida-arizona-california-and-texas-2020-07-04?mod=mw_latestnews
The MSN COVID-19 tracker currently has 131,549 U.S. deaths.
Trump and Pence are determined to hold Mass Infection Events. Possibly, the Trumpsters will reach heard immunity before long and can then infect people their children and grandparents and eventually those who have been cautious.
COVID-19 may cause permanent damage in a lot of people. Lung tissue may have glass opacification and fibrosis that can lead to permanent lung damage even in non-smokers.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/lifelong-lung-damage-the-serious-covid-19-complication-that-can-hit-people-in-their-20s
Damage may be caused to other organs as well, but much remains unknown:
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-can-cause-lasting-lung-damage-but-the-effects-may-ease-over-time-140398
Hedge funds generally have high minimum investments.
Perked up enough for a little while to start doing digging finally. Hopefully I'll have my placeholder list ready by the time the downturn happens (probably won't do any early buying). The market isn't giving me reason to expect it will be soon.
DeleteSPX's higher than the MAs. I don't see much resistance up there past the MAs.
Earnings in about 2 weeks... could go either way.
SKYY is interesting. Several companies I haven't thought of. 22 PE isnt' bad when it has MS, Amazon, and google in the list. The .6% fee with .3% div is a little steep, but intriguing ETF. Opening in yahoo, gives lots of other suggestions to chase down...
Bought an oxipulse meter now that they're back in stock (Target). I am now assured that it's not covid that's got me wondering.
Signed up for the Lincoln Project's streaming event on Thursday 5pm est. Curious what they'll do with it. Also curious who they'll put in front of the camera.
Trump's done his usual. Taken advice from Jared and others to do normal actions with compassion. It doesn't work well because he's so, so bad at it. So he goes full sociopathic bigoted mongering.
Land: Interest rates near zero and a flood of Central Bank money are powerful elixers for P/E multiple expansion.
DeleteI am not pleased with earning .01% in my Fidelity and Schwab sweep accounts. Vanguard is slightly higher.
Still, I view the market's surge to be based on overly optimistic assumptions. I do not see the coronavirus cooperating with the reopening push.
You are not going to pick up any meaningful dividend yield in stock ETFs like SKYY, EBIZ, IRBO, CLOU, and FINX, members of the Church That Works Now.
There is some yield in the ETF TDIV which I have bought and sold many times.
First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV)
42.52+0.72 (+1.72%) as of 7/6 close
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TDIV?p=TDIV
Sponsor's website:
https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/ETFsummary.aspx?Ticker=TDIV
I just eliminated a position in one Roth IRA account but still own in another.
Donald prefers to embrace the Confederacy rather than talk about the pandemic other than to make an occasional shameful and false claim that downplays and misrepresents the health impact.
Donald already has the confederate flag waving voters who embrace statues of confederate generals and who want to keep the names of military bases named after them. I have always been baffled by those who glorify traitors who fought against the U.S. Army in order to preserve slavery, but they do exist in large numbers particularly in the South. I am not sure what he is trying to accomplish by using a racist bullhorn to corral those already loyal voters.
I get the impression we've finally hit Trump's actual values. He can't pivot to what makes more logical sense, because these are his values. There was hope that he learned and adjusted from his racist apartment rental cases. But that seems to be not so. It's not really a surprise , it's just so hard to believe anybody is like this.
DeleteEarly on a psychologist on MSNBC said that he can't diagnose sociopathy for only one reason. The Trump wasn't being detrimental to his own well-being.
I caught St Louis president's talk today. I assume that's why the market got happier again. I think he must have been sent to Jawbone because there was one down day.
He pulled out some astronomical number of deaths expected in March's studies, claimed we had so much less, and so it is a logical that the markets in a better place. He must have picked the top study and ignored what was the general expectation at the time. Since Kudlow wasn't going to get believed, he took over talking about how we're already seeing a v-shaped recovery.
I found baffling that Levi was down 9% on poor results. Yet a whole range of clothing lines were rallying. The person interviewed, gave glowing reasons why Levi was in good shape (saved money on staff, inventory isn't stylish so it'll last) as though the stock wasn't down 9%.
Is Levi is any indication, half the market's going to Rally, every time one stock gets hit because of poor earnings report numbers.
Land: My "gut", the organ that is the source of Donald's erudition, informs me that the Stock Jocks have become delusional. I still have not pull the plug on my stock allocation yet due primarily to a lack of options for the cash and my already insignificant percentage allocation.
DeleteI don't need Mary Trump to tell me that Donald is a malignant narcissist and a liar.
Trump's severe mental illnesses will only become worse when and if he wins a second term.
I thought these videos are interesting:
The speaker is a psychiatrist, Frank Yeomans, M.D. and Phd:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoRuzpsLzTU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOcMmuoFufU
He makes a good point in the second video that intervention will not work and the political system needs to contain the malignant narcissist rather than enabling him. So far republicans have done everything possible to protect, enable and nurture the malignant narcissist who is currently the President of the U.S.
Well your wording did make me laugh. Containment is the only option. From where I sit given education and information on how these work, we have not seen the bottom of where Trump goes. They count on wanting people to believe that things and they're evil can't be as bad as they are.
DeleteI'm participating in a postcard writing party on Sunday. It feels pretty lame to me. I'd really like to find a way to do something effective to drum up that vote.
Thanks for the videos will check them out!
My money is earning 1.15% in that Savings Bank. First Foundation. That certainly is a Jihad.
The videos are good. The first is saying people are attracted to the simplicity. That's an identified known idea. I wonder to what extent it's been tested. Be interesting to see. Also that the aggrandising and feeling of importance that comes from the narcissistic non realities can be alluring even addictive.
DeleteAnd the 2nd one's point is that you have to work with pain and reward. You have to create a more painful situation in order to get cooperation. And importantly this staying on in the government to contain the chaos, is the opposite of what reduces & motivates him to cooperate. Even now though this is a person who's not even able to pivot as he's watching everything fall apart. Probably from a lot of years of doing this, and only this.
When he first entered office he hoped for acceptance. At the same time he was vicious. But I've wondered if media had undulated over his better behaviors and made him feel good, if that simple rewards system would have kept more normal moments for longer. Apparently you can get him to do darn near anything, with a little cheap flattery.
From the duty to warn, one of the authors talks about delusion and the way in which an antisocial personality disorder lives in borderline non reality. That includes having no concept of Truth. I appreciate how Dr yeoman describes that near psychosis. Media tries to normalize it, come up with ways of explaining it. It's been one of the bigger normalizing.
On that cheery note....
Well maybe I'll get a dessert fruit
Dime Community Bancshares 5.5% Non-Cum. Perp. Pfd. Series A (DCOMP)
ReplyDelete$20.50 +$0.08 +0.39%
Last Updated: Jul 7, 2020 11:21 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/dcomp
My standards for income generating investments has come down some given that the FED is in another Jihad Against the Saving Class and will continue its onslaught for an extended period.
I have bought 20 DCOMP and may buy more when and if it falls lower. Par value is $25. Dividends are non-cumulative and qualified. At $20.5, the yield is about 6.71%.
The issue is Dime Community bank that has offices in NYC and surrounding areas.
Dime is in the process of being acquired by Bridge Bancorp (BDGE). When and if the merger is consummated, this preferred stock will become ad BDGE obligation:
"Each outstanding share of Dime’s 5.50% Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A will be converted into the right to receive one share of a newly created series of preferred stock of Bridge with the same preferences and rights."
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/01/2056550/0/en/Bridge-Bancorp-Inc-and-Dime-Community-Bancshares-Inc-to-Combine-in-Merger-of-Equals-Creating-The-Best-Business-Bank-in-New-York.html
BDGE is a cautious bank. Based on what is known now, I view the combined entity to be a more solvent entity than Dime alone.
While BDGE will be the surviving entity, the combined banks will take the Dime Community Bancshares name and will trade under the symbol DCOM.
BDGE reacted negatively to the news. I added 5 shares this morning bringing my small ball total up to 15. BDGE operates primarily in Staten Island while Dime has branches in Queens, Brooklyn and Bronx. The merger makes sense to me. BDGE makes the following claim:
"Prospects to Accelerate Shareholder Value Creation: Pro forma calculations with respect to the combined company indicate GAAP EPS accretion of 7% to Bridge and 40% to Dime. The transaction is approximately 0.4% accretive to Bridge’s Tangible Book Value. Management believes that conservative and achievable cost savings, projected to be approximately 15% of the combined expense base, will drive strong financial metrics, material capital generation and tangible book value per share growth."
After buying and selling BDGE, I restarted a position with a 10 share purchase at $19.9 recently.
Item #1.H.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/06/bdge-brkb-btz-cznc-enbprpca-igr-main.html
BDGE Trading Profits to Date: $2,512.37.
It is just really hard to generate any enthusiasm for regional banks now.
When looking a possible regional bank purchase, I view it as important to see how the bank did during the Near Depression and its aftermath. The financial data can be found in a SEC filed annual report, Form 10-K, for the relevant period.
What happened to the dividend? Did the bank remain profitable even at lower levels?
The 2013 annual report will have the relevant information.
BDGE remained profitable without suffering an annual loss.
See page 14:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/846617/000110465913020256/a13-1446_110k.htm
The dividend was not cut and remained at a $.92 per share annual rate, though there were 3 quarters of payment in 2011 and 5 in 2012.
How did they pack so many names into one ad? And they didn't waste time and who was the worst, they went straight for who's the most vulnerable.
ReplyDeletehttps://secure.anedot.com/the-lincoln-project/c1f1a7e0586be971ed6b7
Land: I have contributed to the Lincoln Project, viewing those dissatisfied republicans as the most effective opposition voice. Their ranks are filled with republican campaign professionals who help that party become ascendant and are very good in developing campaign ads. I am impressed by their ads and particularly by their quick response to the most recent Trump statements and conduct.
DeleteIt is extremely important IMO to oppose anyone with Donald's pathologies, irrespective of ideology. They will cause a lot of damage. With the exception of Senator Mitt Romney, republican politicians at the national level have enabled Donald, when the only correct response for a malignant narcissist with strong sociopathic and authoritarian tendencies is to oppose and to control. All of the republican politicians mentioned in that Lincoln Project ad need to be sanctioned for enabling and providing succor to Donald. The way to do that in a Democracy is to punish them through denying them reelection. I would say the same about a Democrat demonstrating the same harmful personality characteristics. Trump will be a permanent stain on the U.S. even without being reelected.
I enjoyed their video event last evening while eating dinner.
DeleteThey are taking their work very seriously and putting heart and soul into it. Thank goodness someone turned out to be leaders.
I'd be curious what their political policy views are. I've heard smatterings over the years as guests on media. I doubt I'd disagree with much.
I would definitely not vote for a Dem who was acting like these GOP enablers. It's part of why I label myself independent. I have voted Rep when that person was more capable, moderate, and with more integrity. I don't need to be an expert in policies or have that many opinions. I need my reps to be good people with good values and a backbone to the allure of power, so I can trust them to do their research and job of figuring out policies properly.
Typo in my post above. I meant that I was impressed that the Lincoln project selected those reps who are most vulnerable, rather than the ones who have been the worst actors. A very practical move, that I've been in groups of people who couldn't do that.
Land: It would be a waste of money, time and effort to challenge republican incumbents in deep red states, though I lot of money is being thrown at defeating Mitch McConnell that could be better used elsewhere. Amy McGrath has raised over $40M. Perhaps Jaimie Harrison has a better shot at beating the Hypocrite of the Century Lindsey Graham but I would give him no better than 1 in 3. The most likely pick ups are in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina. If Graham or Mitch loses, the Democrats are probably running the table on all of the toss ups, mostly in reaction to Donald who is taking the GOP down with him.
DeleteDonald still has the stock market going for him.
Today's action was apparently linked to Gilead's report on remdesivir significantly reducing deaths:
"Findings from an analysis of its late-stage study showed that 74.4 percent of remdesivir-treated patients recovered by day 14 versus 59 percent of patients receiving standard of care"
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/remdesivir-may-reduce-deaths-appears-work-better-certain-patients-n1233382
That announcement did not add much to Gilead's previous announcement, assuming my recall is close to being accurate, which indicates that the Stock Jocks will grab and run with anything that is positive about the pandemic while ignoring every piece of bad news.
I am spending a lot of mental energy arguing with myself about whether I just need to go ahead and eliminate my stock allocation.
For now, I am just riding the wave up.
The regional bank stocks seem to be responding to perceptions about the duration and severity of the pandemic. If the perception one day is that the pandemic will likely cause more credit losses, then the bank stocks dive which is what has been happening recently.
Today news about remdesivir changed the outlook to a more positive forecast about the duration and depth of an economic contraction and contributed to a bank stock rally.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$35.88 +$1.69 +4.94%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Investors can predict within some reasonable range what the FED's abnormal monetary policy will have on net interest margins. What is not known is how badly will the banks be hit with credit losses.
The overall opinion expressed in regional bank prices remains negative about credit losses which runs counter to the unimpeachable economic optimism being expressed in stock prices in most other industry sectors.
It would be a waste of money to run in deep red areas. But I've been in groups of people who were so blinded by their upset that they'd miss that point (on topics outside of politics too.)
Delete"Hypocrite of the Century" - LOL.
I hope Trump keeps imploding enough for that run of the board to happen. I want to see McConnell and Lindsey out. I don't understand how he was McCain's friend. (There may be a bad case of blackmail involved with his new "viewpoints.")
You're debating about getting the rest of the way out of stocks. I'm debating getting in. The market is irrational. But price is king.
I've wondered what I would have done in the lead up to 1999. It's started to enter that period in my view. Maybe I'm wrong, and recovery will lead to good economics and prices will be reasonable, and it's a matter of patience. However, the market is never as patient as it's acting now. NEVER more than 6 months out. So it's got to be running on irrationality. And that's not a good fundamental to base one's own investing on.
Land: I know what I did in 1999. I got out of stocks. The problem now is that there is nowhere to go.
DeleteIn 1999, the 3 month treasury bill was over 5% and is now hugging near zero.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3MO
The 2 year treasury was close to 6.5% early in 2000 which was a nice place to hide for 2 years, but no the yield is .16%:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
The fact that there is nowhere to go with proceeds from stock sales is powering the market higher on an ocean of liquidity and is keeping me riding the wave without making major changes in already low, high single digit stock allocation.
For now, I am content in riding the wave with a relatively small stock allocation as a percentage of total investable assets. The stock allocation did move up a couple of percentage points during March but is still in the single digits.
ReplyDeleteI am devoting some funds to ETFs that owns stocks that are working, even though I view the valuations in many cases to be absurd and irrational. I have also invested some money in international and emerging market ETFs and mutual funds.
I am nibbling at some CEFs that have current high income levels including this one bought yesterday:
Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund
Forward Dividend & Yield 0.97 (16.56%)
Ex-Dividend Date July 14, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JQC?p=JQC&.tsrc=fin-srch
Dividends are paid monthly and have significant ROC support:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/JQC
JQC is a "leveraged junk bond" CEF. The words in parenthesis are not favored by me. The goal is to harvest dividends and sell, if possible, at whatever profit is available before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
I will discuss this one out-of-time order in my next post. I bought 100 at $5.82 in my Vanguard taxable account and 100 in my Fidelity taxable account.
My last elimination was in 2012 when I sold 804+ shares at $9.35:
Item # 5
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2012/05/trust-certificates-jzj-and-jzv-interest.html
Leveraged junk bond funds were crushed during the Near Depression. Those funds have generally been poor long term holdings. Even with the high dividend, JQC's five year annual average total return was only 2.18%:
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator/
So, like almost all high yielding securities, I view them as trades which is likely to be the only way to realize a decent total return.
I currently own 200 shares which indicates my disdain but sort of a wave at the dividend yield.
Fidelity Disruptors Fund
ReplyDelete$12.52 +$0.21 +1.71% as of 7/8/20 close
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fgdfx
Generally, many of the stocks that are outperforming SPX are classified as disruptors. This new mutual fund offering from Fidelity started trading on 4/22/20 at $10.14. I have waved at it with a $250 purchase.
This one is a fund of funds that owns 5 new mutual funds that focus on disruptors.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31641Q516
Of the 5 funds, I also bought the Fidelity Disruptive Technology Fund (FTEKX). The other 5 funds are the Fidelity Disruptive Communications Fund (FNETX); the Fidelity Disruptive Automation Fund (FBOTX); the Fidelity Disruptive Finance Fund (FNTEX); and the Fidelity Disruptive Medicine Fund (FMEDX).
All of these funds are so new that the sponsor has not yet reported on the holdings. The expense ratio starts at 1% and then declines based on the length of time shares are owned when the shares are bought and owned in a Fidelity account.
http://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/mutual-funds/time-based-pricing.pdf
How is the fluidity in trading those funds? Meaning enough trading on them to so if desired. That used to be a problem, but now that specialty ETFs are accepted, maybe it's no longer even a question.
DeleteLand: Those Fidelity Disruptor funds are mutual funds. Trades are at the closing net asset value per share. I would imagine most of the stocks owned by the funds are liquid, though I am only guessing since the holdings have not yet been disclosed.
DeleteOne problem with mutual funds, compared to a CEF, is that the manager may be forced to sell stocks at an inopportune time to meet redemptions.
I have bought a number of ETFs that own stocks that are disruptors. Amazon, for example, is a top holding of EBIZ:
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/ebiz/
Zoom and Twilio are among the top holdings of CLOU:
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/clou/
Square is a top holding of FINX:
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/finx/
So it is possible to duplicate what a mutual fund is doing in this space with ETFs.
The question is whether Fidelity's managers can outperform the index funds.
In the automation space, I have bought both IRBO and BOTZ.
I have bought SKYY in cloud computing in addition to CLOU.
I have also bought XLK, FDN, QQQ, XT, KOMP, and TECB.
I have not yet gone over 10 shares in any of them.
And, I have not decided yet on a game plan for further adds or whether I will throw out some and keep others. They are more in the placeholder category now.
I also mentioned buying the CEF AIO in a previous comment. I will probably add to that one when the future purchase reduces my average cost per share.
The change to no commission buying is a game changer.
DeleteIt seems like it's make sense if one has time, to build an ETF, of the stocks in these varioius ideas, but the ones with good balance sheets. Probably is that you can't get proportional, but have to buy whole shares.
I suspect for my schedule, I will need to buy these. I definitely like ETFs better. Where you can get out mid-day. Now a days the end of, and mid days can be totally different.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
ReplyDelete$34.12 -$1.54 (-4.32%)
The S & P 500 was down 1.51%.
The greater decline in KRE vs. SPY is due to the Stock Jocks being confronted with undesirable facts about the pandemic that disturbed their equanimity, at least for the time being. In an earlier comment to this post, I diagnosed the Stock Jocks as being in a delusionary state.
Dr. Fauci may be the source of the anxiety attack this morning. He said that the states severe increases in infections may need to shut down again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/states-with-severe-coronavirus-outbreaks-should-seriously-look-at-shutting-down-dr-fauci-says.html
That would include Arizona, Texas and Florida with the latter doing almost nothing to control the pandemic under the republican Governor Ron DeSantis who is a 100% pure Trumpster. The republicans intend on holding a Mass Infection Event in Tallahassee in early August. California is trending in that direction as are several other states including Tennessee.
The Texas GOP wanted to hold a Mass Infection Event in Houston and refused to postpone it at the request of the mayor. Houston is experiencing a massive spike in cases. The mayor decided to cancel the in person convention.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/houston-texas-republican-convention-contract/index.html
+++
I received the proceeds this morning from an early redemption of Healthpeak's (formerly known as HCP, a healthcare REIT) 3.125% SU maturing on 8/1/22. The issuer paid $55.12 per bond to exercise that redemption right plus accrued and unpaid interest of $13.83 per bond and the $1K per bond principal amount.
Today the market rallied on the Gilead news that it already baked in on the last announcement.
DeleteAt this point I conclude that the market is rallying on recovery, on the grounds that believing so, makes them feel better, and live more easily in a stressful world by ignoring the stressors.
The news focused on Gilead's drug. Meanwhile Trump announced that he'd be focusing 2nd term on beating the virus and then the economy. That's his new soundbite. I'm wondering how many investors feel uplifted that he's finally found his path? I wouldn't put it past this market.
(Ignoring that it's a dark tunnel that he keep digging deeper.)
There will be no more China trade deals. That could be uplifting too, considering the last ones were all about destroying the USA farmers and economy.
I did nothing market-wise today. I suppose I should have bought into that "dip." I can't get used to how shallow the dips are to take advantage.
2nd quarter bad data will be considered reflection of the past. That wouldn't bring the market down.
Reality as you keep saying needs to hit them in real time. It's only if there's new closures. Even if they happen, they will be CALLED pauses in opening.
Looks like more funds will be coming. I have to remember to BUY as soon as that happens. It won't add the $600 that was paying unemployed more than their jobs were paying them.
I can't see how the economy is going to recover in V-shape. I want to visit family that's isolating. We're all expressing nervousness and not sure it's a good idea to plan it. No restaurants, no driving, not even stopping at convenience stores to use their bathrooms when filling up gas. No shows, or plays (Netflix at home can't be as lucrative). Not even the swimming pool. Nothing to do if we get together, except walks. (Dogs are happy with the new norm.) Schools reopening can not happen in a normal way or some even at all. Europe is normalizing though. It's a long way till possible Biden and a new opportunity to battle this properly.
Maybe my reaching a point of not believing anything can bring this market back into buy territory, is a sign that it's headed there soon.
There's been an ongoing question by Trumpsters of why they and not the protestors are blamed for the new outbreaks.
DeleteThe list of states are the answer. If it was protests, it'd be increasing in places like DC, NYcity, MN, and a few others.
Instead it's a series of mostly places that weren't taking it seriously.
Plus California. (I haven't heard a credible reason for why that's surging yet.)
I've had a thought... there's a claim that if exposed to more load, you'll get sicker. So in theory there are people exposed to less load not getting very sick.
DeleteIf that were true (and I've seen no research evidence quoted by any of the doctors saying it)... then a herd immunity can happen, by low levels of unaware people. We may get to herd sooner than expected.
If true. And if happening.
The 10 year Treasury yield had a significant percentage decline today.
ReplyDeleteCurrently, the yield is .609%, down .057%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose $2.62 to close at $167.17. The yield at that price is around 1.68%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt
The investment grade corporate bond ETF LQD finished up .56%:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lqd
LQD has a similar duration to the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) which was up .34%.
JNK, a junk bond ETF, closed down .31%.
Those moves indicate a flight to quality in bond land and a very slight increase in concerns about junk bond credit risk.
The increased concerns about credit risk are also reflected in BDC and regional bank stocks, with both of those sectors having a bad day.
With the surge in infections, and the average delay of 4 to 5 days before test results are reported back, I doubt that contract tracing is even possible in several states as an option to stem the pandemic's growth even if tracing was set up adequately which is not the case. There are also a large number of people who refuse to respond to those engaging in contract tracing. The pandemic looks out of control in several states with major problems developing in many others.
I have been adding to my double short ETFs on up days, but the overall position is still meaningless as a hedge. I am closet to profit territory in TWM, which makes sense since the Russell 2000 is not populated with mega cap names that have been driving the market higher and the small caps generally have thin institutional support spread out over a lot of stocks.
ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000
$10.95 +$0.44 +4.19%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/twm
I started buying the double shorts too soon as hedges but averaging down as lowered significantly my break-even points. SDS break-even is near $21.5. TWM break-even is near $11.5. I am using them in two taxable accounts with the other accounts owning none.
NVAX is currently the largest holding in IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF, and that is after it has exploded up in price based on hopium about a Covid-19 vaccine. That one has been around for a very long time and has not yet brought a vaccine to market.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/07/novavax-maker-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-backed-by-operation-warp-speed/
NVAX was around $4 in January and closed today at $96.3.Even after that rise, the market cap is about $5.65B compare to Apple's $1.659T and Microsoft's 1.625T. I have to wonder how much juice is left to power the upside in the mega caps driving index levels higher. Apple's trailing P/E is over 28:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL
The U.S. government is throwing boatloads of money at companies trying to develop a vaccine, with the project named "Operation Warp Speed".
NVAX will "receive $1.6 billion from the federal government to fund clinical studies of its experimental coronavirus vaccine and establish large-scale manufacturing of doses," according to a Dow Jones news article dated 7/7.
The Trump Administration is claiming that millions of vaccine doses will be ready by the fall. Now, will any of them work and be safe to take?
Credit risk worries are increasing. That's a change. Wonder what's behind that. Maybe some news starting to come in on bankruptcies that banks are dealing with from businesses?
DeleteIf there was testing at better than tossup near useless, and more available, I'd be able to use that to enable a family visit. I suspect my new oximeter is more useful.
Wit TWM and the others, you've had to hold a while. Are you seeing erosion moving your break even point?
I'm not sure I understand how all this g'vt and fed money doesn't result in deflating the value of every dollar, and therefore inflation. I know it was expected and didnt' happen with Q.
Land: The double shorts are not working. I am averaging down in 1 to 5 lots on big up days, though I only did 1 share purchases today. The result is that I am lowering my break-even point, but I still have unrealized losses. I will need a significant decline to earn a profit. I will feel better about them when there is a significant decline. A rough estimate is that I will add about $1 in a double short now for every $10 in net stock adds.
DeleteThe steady rise in gold does reflect a concern that the FED is debasing the U.S. Dollar. I view gold as primarily an alternative currency which becomes more desirable among some investors when central banks are turning fiat currencies into so much confetti.
I do not currently own the precious metal ETFs, but I do own bullion that I store in bank lock boxes and shares in the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund that maintains about a 25% allocation to gold and silver bullion.
https://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/permanent-portfolio.html
I still own my first gold coin which I bought when I was 13. It was illegal then for U.S. citizens to own bullion gold, as I recall, but you could buy old U.S. coins that were close to pure gold. The $20 St. Gaudens gold piece would have close to 1 troy oz. in gold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint-Gaudens_double_eagle
My theory about inflation is interest rate suppression by central banks below the current and forecasted inflation rate is deflationary, not inflationary.
iShares ESG MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF (ESML)$
ReplyDelete$24.91 +$ 0.34 +1.38%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/esml
I started a five share position at $24.81 after selling 5 shares of the WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES) which I will mention in my next post. It will be over a month before I will discuss ESML, if at all.
ESML is an ESG fund that has been performing better than the Russell 2000 ETF since it was launched last year. ESG stands for "environmental, social, and governance" and the stock selections give weight to higher ESG scores.
ESML was up 29.12% last year vs. IWM at +25.39% and is down less this year at -14.55 vs. -15.46% for IWM.
ESML has a .17% expense ratio:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/296644/
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/des-exg-fgdfx-fsphx-gbdc-intf-jqc-mgc.html