AGR, BAC, DPG, EBMT, FLGB, FRAF, GLQ, IMGN, IPAY, PACB, REGL, RF, SLRC,

Economy:  

U.S. economy will get worse before it gets better: Ned Davis Research

Borrowers looking to use Fed's Main Street lending program run into dead end  

Weekly jobless claims rise more than expected after break from holiday New weekly claims for unemployment for the week ending 12/5 rose to 853K vs. the consensus expectation of 730K. That number does not include the 427,609 initial claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program which was up from 288,234. The PUA program expires on 12/31/20. Unemployment Insurance Relief During COVID-19 Outbreak | U.S. Department of Labor  

McConnell Rejects Bipartisan Stimulus bill (12/10/2015)

The Fed's Flow of Funds report estimated that mortgage debt increased by $158 billion in the third quarter. The Fed - Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 - Current Release

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 12/11/20: 

GAAP TTM: 41.52

Non-GAAP Estimate Forward 12 months: 25.85

Sourced: P/E & Yields

Shiller PE Ratio = 33.46

S&P  Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends

Record highs are justified because economy will boom: Ed Yardeni

BlackRock takes equities to overweight for 2021, sees powerful restart to the economy

A 'flood of money' should keep this bull market alive, even with the U.S. at a 'tipping point,' billionaire investor says - MarketWatch There is unquestionably a flood of money that has nowhere to go in the real economy. The flood of money used to fuel the home price parabola prior to 2008 provides a lesson on how money can inflate asset prices beyond any rationally based valuation criteria.   

Stock-market sentiment hitting 'ludicrous' territory, but when will bulls 'pay the piper'? - MarketWatch

'We are only in the middle of the bull market' and a buying opportunity could come soon, JPMorgan says - MarketWatch

It is normal to become extremely optimistic about the stock market moving to new highs and beyond when traditional valuation measures are already at extremely high levels. I do not view the Fed Model as a traditional valuation measure given its recent origin. Fed model - Wikipedia; The Fallacy of the Fed Model; Breaking Down the Fed Model

There are IMO 3 possible outcomes that have a decent chance of happening.  

The first  is a Catastrophic Event that resets prices to a more normal valuation range. An example of this end result can be found in the 2000-2002 decline of about 50%. 

From Airbnb to Tesla, It’s Starting to Feel Like 1999 All Over Again-It May End the Same Way | Barron's (12/11/20)

The second is that the market will enter a long period where there will be a lot of up and down chop that basically goes nowhere. Earnings will eventually catch up and stocks would then become reasonably valued based on realistic earnings forecasts. Put another way, future gains in stocks are pulled forward to the present. 

The third alternative appears to be the Stock Jock current consensus forecast. In this scenario, U.S. GDP growth will be extremely robust in 2021 and 2022, based in large part on pent up demand and occurring in a worldwide synchronized growth spurt. The pandemic will be in the rear view mirror by late spring or early summer. Even after robust growth, stock multiples will remain at historically high levels but are justified by a prediction that interest rates and inflation will remain abnormally low for an extended period of time. I regard this scenario as somewhat delusionary given the number of rosy forecasts built into it. 

Unlike the second alternative, where stock gains would soon stall and enter a long term roller coaster up and down movement going nowhere, this scenario would allow for a continued upward trajectory for a few more years.  

In a 2010 post, I gave a few examples of how the valuation reset works. Item # 3 Large Cap Valuation Strategy (5/29/20 Post)  I will just drag and drop part of that 2010 post here: 

Quote: 

"In 2001, JNJ stock was trading at a higher price than now, hitting a high of $61. The E.P.S. number for 2001 was $1.91, resulting in a P/E of 32 at the high price. Since 2001, JNJ has continued to increase its E.P.S. in every year. In 2005, the price hit a high of 70 when earnings were $3.5 but the P/E had shrunk to 20 from the 32 number five years earlier. As the earnings continued to grow, the share price continued to stagnate in a fairly narrow range bound trading band. While JNJ came close to a 73 price in 2008, that represented only a 16 P/E on the E.P.S. number of $4.57. The estimate for 2011 is currently $5.25:  At the closing price of $58.3 from last Friday, the multiple has now shrunk to just 11.1 on that forward 2011 estimate.

I don't think that multiple contraction is explained by a slowdown in earnings or dividend growth. The dividend has expanded from 80 cents per share in 2001 to $2.11 in 2010, an expansion of 164% and that would be close to the earnings increase too.

A chart of the S & P 500 between 1995 to 2001 reveals the ultimate cause of the sideways pattern. The market went up too fast and too far during those years, a move that resulted in clearly absurd valuations for technology and other Nasdaq stocks but also extended the valuations of large, established blue chip companies to levels that could not be justified by their rates of growth. This kind of euphoria should be expected in the final blow out phase of a long term secular bull market in stocks. Now, after almost a decade, the pendulum has swung from clearly over valued to under valued based on a sideways stock movement and a continuation of steady earnings growth over the past decade.

So, without trying to over think what has happened, I would explain this phenomenon as JNJ becoming over-priced when it was selling at a 32 P/E, relative to its prospects for earnings growth. The ensuing decade was marked by increasing earnings, and a relatively stagnant stock price, that have resulted in JNJ's P/E multiple shrinking over the past decade.

The market is not an efficient pricing mechanism. In an efficient market, JNJ's price would not have risen to a 32 multiple, nor would it shrink to the multiple in place now. Instead, a more rational multiple would be 15 to 18 times earnings. If I took 16 times earnings as a fair price, then the 2001 price would have been hovering around 30.56 rather than in a 40 to 60 range, and so on.

If I attached a 16 multiple to 2011 earnings, I arrive at a $84 price. Yet, this price would undoubtedly bring in sellers assuming it was reached in 2011, whereas institutions would have jumped at the opportunity to buy JNJ in 2001 or 2002 at 16 times earnings.

Eventually, I suspect the perception will change and many of these large caps that have continued to grow earnings during the last decade will eventually be rewarded with much higher stock prices.

JNJ is not unusual in this regard. Medtronic would be another example. MDT had an E.P.S. number of $1.21 in 2001 and a high price of almost $61. MDT may earn around $3.5 during its next fiscal year and is currently having trouble staying over $40.

It is impossible to say when the market will afford these steady growers a higher multiple, and they deserve a higher multiple than companies whose earnings are more cyclical and less reliable. I believe that this will happen, the timing is the only open issue. When it does start to happen, those who bought these kind of stocks now will experience decent appreciation on the stock price based mostly on a multiple expansion from undervalued to fairly valued. In the 1990s, it was not unusual for MDT stock to sport a 30 P/E. Now a good return could be achieved with just a 15 multiple."

End of Quote from 2010 post.  

Economic growth will be better than expected thanks to the resilient services sector, Goldman says

The U.S. Dollar Is Set for More Downside | Barron's

DXY | U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Advanced Charts | MarketWatch DXY has been trading below its 50 day SMA line most of the time since 5/15/20. Brief crossovers to the upside quickly reversed to the dominant downtrend. 

FireEye, a Top Cybersecurity Firm, Says It Was Hacked by a Nation-State - The New York Times; FireEye stock drops as cybersecurity company reveals it was hacked - MarketWatch Russians are really good at stealing things. It is not reassuring that a top U.S. cybersecurity firm allowed hackers to run off with the crown jewels. 

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Portfolio Management: 

I received the annual dividends and capital gain distributions paid by the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) mutual fund. I have been reinvesting those dividends to buy more shares. The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds; SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the Period Ending 7/31/20. 

I keep this fund around, notwithstanding relatively poor performance, since its  portfolio design may work doing a financial Armageddon scenario given its allocations to U.S. treasuries, Swiss government bonds, gold and silver bullion, REITs, and high quality corporate bonds. 

The "Dollar Assets" consist of U.S. investment grade corporate bonds (18.72%) and U.S. treasuries at a 9.44% weighting, both as of 7/31/20.  

I have so far harvested $898.7 in profits (snapshots at  Item # 4.C. and Item # 2.B)

Over the past week, I have been a net seller of stocks. I have been selling highest cost lots and profitably eliminating several positions that had previously been unprofitable. 

I am continuing to focus mostly on contrarian value stocks that have yields greater than 3%. I have started small ball positions in a few beaten up large caps (an example is KHC which I mentioned in an 11/23 comment, buying 5 at $32.3 shortly before the 11/25 ex dividend date, that I will discuss in my next post) 

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Covid Updates: 

The pandemic remains firmly "under control" in TrumpWorld:

As of 12/11/20

In fact, just reading Donald's tweets, I would not even know that one exists. Donald is just showing once again his true colors as a sociopath. A Large Portion of the Electorate Chose the Sociopath - The Atlantic; 'Sociopath,' 'clown': 8 unflattering anecdotes from Mary Trump's book; “Sociopathy”: Psychiatrist says Trump's behavior “meets criteria for a locked psychiatric facility"; COVID-19 Exposes Trump’s Sociopathic Side Like Nothing Before It ; Trump’s Ghostwriter: He’s a Sociopath  

On 12/9, when the U.S. hit a new record for deaths since the pandemic's onset, Donald was still obsessing about the election and claimed that he won. On record day for Covid-19 death Trump falsely claims at crowded White House Hanukkah party he'll win election - The Washington Post ("The moment highlighted a consistent theme of Trump’s actions in the past month, as he has declined to address a dramatically worsening pandemic while focusing instead on his thus-far failed efforts to overturn the election results.") 

Just a reminder of how Fox "news" covered the pandemic: Saluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic | The Daily Show - YouTube; Trump & Fox News’s Premature Coronavirus Celebration | The Daily Social Distancing Show - YouTube

Covid vaccines: Fauci says virus could be under control in 'back half of 2021'

Covid vaccine side effects: What it's like in Pfizer, Moderna trials I do not believe people understand yet that the vaccines, particularly the second dose, can produce Covid like symptoms in many recipients.  

Trump Administration Passed on Chance to Secure More of Pfizer Vaccine - The New York Times; republished at MSN: Trump Officials Passed Up Pfizer Offer to Sell More Vaccine Doses (so after Pfizer sells 100M doses to U.S. customers, international customers will then be first in line due to Trump's refusal to buy up more product)

Birx: Winter Covid surge the 'worst event that this country will face 

Pompeo to host indoor holiday parties at State Department despite warning to employees to hold some missions virtually | TheHill; Dismissing health concerns, State Department treats 200 guests to holiday drinks, tours and leftover ‘Be Best’ swag - The Washington Post

Anti-Maskers Swarm Homes of Idaho Health Officials | NowThis - YouTube  Just a bunch of Trumpsters scaring kids while their parents were trying to do their jobs as health officials. 

A State Scientist Questioned Florida’s Virus Data. Now Her Home’s Been Raided. - The New York Times (Florida state agents descended on her home with guns drawn; Rebekah Jones on Twitter: "At 8:30 am this morning, state police came into my house and took all my hardware and tech. They were serving a warrant on my computer after DOH filed a complaint. They pointed a gun in my face. They pointed guns at my kids-Twitter) What was her alleged offense? The republicans claim that she sent the following message to state health employees: “It’s time to speak up before another 17,000 people are dead, You know this is wrong. You don’t have to be part of this. Be a hero. Speak out before it’s too late.” She denied sending the message. 

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Trump-The Unchallengeable Leader of the Anti-Democracy Party: 

Texas sues four battleground states in Supreme Court over 'unlawful election results'; Texas sues over election results in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania | The Texas Tribune The Trump campaign and 17 republican controlled states have joined in this effort. States tell Supreme Court they support Texas bid to reverse Biden win; Trump places hope in lawsuit filed directly with the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to overturn election results in 4 states won by Biden-MarketWatch 

Late yesterday, the Supreme Court held that Texas did not have standing to complain about how other states conducted their elections, which is of course an obvious legal conclusion. Supreme Court rejects Texas' and Trump's bid to overturn election 

The republican petition was frivolous but is nonetheless important in what it reveals about the republican party. The GOP's Antidemocratic Bid to Overturn the Election - The Atlantic 

The republicans wanted to cancel a few million votes cast in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the most flagrantly anti-democracy effort undertaken by a political party in U.S. history since Jim Crow laws.  

To protect democracy, or so they claim, the republicans have "asked the Supreme Court to immediately block the four states from using the voting results to appoint presidential electors to the Electoral College and allow their state legislatures to name the electors rather than having the electors reflect the will of the voters." (emphasis added) It just so happens, a mere coincidence in TrumpWorld, that all four states have republican led legislatures.  States assail 'bogus' Texas bid to overturn U.S. election at Supreme Court | Reuters

The republican controlled states that have joined Texas are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia. 

126 House republicans joined this plot to overturn the election. (Top 2 Republicans in House now support Texas lawsuit seeking to overturn presidential election - MarketWatch; House Republicans sign brief backing Texas lawsuit challenging election results | TheHill; House Republicans Join Pro-Trump Texas Supreme Court Lawsuit The list of House republicans can be find in their brief. Texas v. Pennsylvania Amicus Brief  

With this latest court filing joined in by Trumpster state Attorney Generals and republican politicians, the GOP has solidified its position as the anti-democracy party and has done so brazenly and with considerable gusto. 

The 18 republican state AGs and 126 House republicans have only managed to brand themselves as enemies of democracy. 

More than 60% of House Republicans sign on to lawsuit aimed at overturning election-USA Today (12/11/2020) 

The readiness of republicans across the nation to fall in line proves IMO that Donald still controls his party and only needs to yank a string if anyone dares challenge his directives. Republican Politicians and Officials Back Trump’s Election Lies; ‘Cacophony Of Bogus Claims’: Over 25 States And Territories Slam Texas’ Supreme Court Lawsuit To Overturn Election; Texas v. Pennsylvania - Motion and Brief of Amici DC et al.pdf; Georgia -- Brief in Opposition; Pennsylvania Opposition pdf

The Maryland attorney general rightfully called the republican claims made in their Supreme Court petition a "cesspool of disproved charges, wild speculation, insupportable arguments and silly gibberish".  But this latest effort is part of the new normal for the anti-democracy party controlled by Trump from the top down to the lowest level (e.g. a state house representative)   

For example, the republicans claim that 80,000 ballot signatures were forged in Georgia but are unable to identify one with proof. Georgia's republican election officials responded that Paxton's allegations were "false and irresponsible". Maybe if there were actually so many, the anti-democracy party could find just 1. 

Another absurd example is a claim in the petition that there was no chance that Biden could win Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: "less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000.” That quote is from the GOP's Supreme Court petition. No one in their right mind would take that patently bogus claim seriously. Trump’s effort to steal the election comes down to some utterly ridiculous statistical claims - The Washington Post   

Trump warns Georgia AG not to rally other Republicans against Texas lawsuit

Fact checking Trump's falsehood-filled Supreme Court brief; Trump and 17 states join Texas effort to convince Supreme Court to void the vote in Pennsylvania  

All of these efforts are now to be expected by the anti-democracy party. Legal scholars are unaware of any attempt by one state to wipe out election results in other states until Paxton and 17 state republican AGs decided to give it a try. 

If, as I suspect, the Supreme Court will not accept the petition, then Trump will try another gambit to win a second term which will fail. That publicity stunt will occur when Congress meets to tally the elector votes which will be cast next Monday assuming the republicans on the Supreme Court do not enjoin the constitutionally mandated process. 3 U.S. Code § 15 - Counting electoral votes in Congress That 1887 law is not a model of clarity. 

The plan will be to have at least 1 republican senator and multiple house members object to using the elector votes from the 4 states that Biden won. 

The House will of course vote to accept the election results with possibly 100+ House republicans preferring to grant Donald another 4 years by canceling several million votes in furtherance of democracy. 

Don the Authoritarian, the unchallengeable leader of the anti-democracy party, and make no mistake that is a proper description of Trump's party, will pressure all republican Senate and House members of course to do so. 

I do not see Romney, Collins or Murkowski participating in this anti-democracy plot to seize the Presidency, but the rest are capable of doing just about anything IMO given their docile subservience to Demagogue Don. But I don't see how that will help Donald since the dispute is settled by the certifications made by the respective governors and 3 of the 4 governors are Democrats. 

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Michigan Hearings Cold Open - SNL - YouTube

Pennsylvania: 

Trump asks Pennsylvania House speaker for help overturning election results, personally intervening in a third state - The Washington Post (12/7/20)-republished at MSN: Trump asks Pennsylvania House speaker for help overturning election results, personally intervening in a third state This Trump effort to cancel the popular vote was confirmed by the republican speaker of the PA House of Representatives Bryan Cutler who was one of 60 PA republican legislators have called on their congressional delegation to object to Biden's slate of electors when Congress meets on 1/6/2021. 

Trump Asked Pennsylvania House Speaker About Overturning His Loss - The New York Times

To reject Biden's electors, both a senator and a House member would have to present the objection in their respective chambers and would then need to be adopted by a majority which is impossible in the House of course. The republican congressman Scott Perry (R-PA) has committed to making the objection to his state's electors chosen by the voters. Perry demonstrated in his recent reelection win why false and deceptive advertising works so well. Five factors in U.S. Rep. Scott Perry’s win in Pa.'s 10th Congressional District over Auditor General Eugene DePasquale - pennlive.com ("The irony in this is that Perry was the sole candidate in the race who has actually pleaded guilty to a crime." Perry's false ad campaign against his opponent was a misleading guilt by association argument) 

The Supreme Court rejected a petition by the republican congressman Mike Kelly (R-PA) requesting that the Justices cancel mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, yet another effort by anti-democracy party to protect democracy by tossing hundreds of thousands of votes. Supreme Court denies bid by Trump allies to overturn Pennsylvania election results - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: Supreme Court denies Trump allies’ bid to overturn Pennsylvania election results; Supreme Court rejects Trump ally's push to overturn Biden win in Pennsylvania 

What would the republicans have said if Hillary had filed 1 lawsuit contesting the 2016 results, let alone 60 or so. I do not recall a single democrat claiming that Hillary lost due to fraudulent Trump votes; and she gracefully conceded soon after the election was called by the networks. The same norms no longer apply to the anti-democracy party. 

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Georgia: 

Trump calls Georgia governor to pressure him for help overturning Biden’s win in the state - The Washington Post ("Trump pressed Kemp to call a special session of the state legislature for lawmakers to override the results and appoint electors who would back the president at the electoral college."  The call was made on 12/5/2020. Trump calls Georgia governor for help to overturn Biden's victory in the state

Trump filed yet another lawsuit in Georgia requesting a judge to throw out the votes. Trump campaign files lawsuit to decertify Georgia election The anti-democracy party argues that certified election results can be cancelled when (1) the loser files affidavits from highly partisan loyalists claiming that they saw something suspicious (when in fact it was normal activity occurring in the vote counting process);  or (2) some voters were registered in two states, a common occurrence, with no proof that they voted in their former state (who cancels their voter registration after moving to another state-nobody); or (3) someone with the same name as a voter was a convicted felon who was not allowed to vote;  or (4) there was a mistake made that impacted a few votes in the tabulation that were nowhere close to impacting the outcome or (5) manufacturing a false narrative derived from a video that does not shown anything improper or (6) claiming that someone was not a resident without bothering to check the publicly available records showing that they were residents of Georgia. 

Here’s what happened when a Georgia lawmaker scrutinized the Trump campaign’s list of allegedly illegal votes - The Washington Post (article notes the Republican National Committee filed a lawsuit last week asking the Court to decertify Georgia's election results and to enjoin Georgia's electors from voting) The claims do not withstand scrutiny. The allegations being debunked originate from Matt Braynard, who worked in the 2016 Trump campaign. According to an earlier WP article, Braynard was being assisted by several Trump appointed federal employees who were "on leave" The federal government’s chief information security officer is helping an outside effort to hunt for alleged voter fraud - The Washington Post  The partisan nature of this effort makes their claims highly suspect and even more so when spots checks fail to confirm starting with the first names on the list. 

If those kind of arguments were sufficient to cancel the election results,  which has been the objective of the anti-democracy party since the election, there would never be another person winning any election in the U.S. provided the loser was willing to make those claims. Only the anti-democracy party has gone down that rabbit hole and hopefully the democrats will never follow.

State Senator Is the Latest Georgia Official Facing Death Threats Following Election Results, Fraud Claims; Georgia state Democratic senator receives death threats after election hearing

A recent investigation found that Georgia had wrongly purged 198,351 voters based on the false claim that those voters had moved from their registration addresses. Georgia Voter Roll Purge Errors.pdf Those purges were concentrated in young voters and people of color. The anti-democracy party uses a variety of techniques to suppress the vote from those who do not vote the right way. So, if a person was actually interested in uncovering improper activity, look at the republican efforts to suppress voting.  

Trump airs election grievances in 100-minute address at largely maskless rally in Georgia - MarketWatch Trumpsters have a constitutional right to infect and kill others. That freedom is burdened far too much by wearing a mask or socially distancing in a crowd. 

At Rally for Georgia Senators, Trump Focuses on His Own Grievances - The New York Times

Trump Georgia Rally-Spouts falsehoods and amplifies personal grievances-- The Washington Post

Georgia Republican election official says Trump's false voter fraud claims undermine democracy I doubt that the republicans will reelect Georgia's Secretary of State, finding someone else who will do what they are told. That is the lesson learned by the anti-democracy party in Georgia.  

Trump Is Being Laughed Out of Court by His Own Judicial Appointees | Vanity Fair

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Michigan: 

To protect democracy in their mind's eye, Trumpsters appeared at the home of Michigan's Secretary of State, brandishing their automatic weapons, shouting obscenities and using bullhorns for their night time raid. Michigan Secretary Of State Says Armed Protesters Descended On Her Home Saturday: Biden Transition Updates-NPR; Jocelyn Benson on Twitter: "As my four-year-old son and I were finishing up decorating the house for Christmas on Saturday night, and he was about to sit down to watch How the Grinch Stole Christmas, dozens of armed individuals stood outside my home shouting obscenities and chanting into bullhorns in the dark of night.")

The certified tally had Biden up in Michigan by over 154K, but Trump and other republicans almost managed to steal the Michigan's electoral votes notwithstanding Biden's clear victory. Trump carried Michigan by 10,704 votes in 2016. Did Hillary contest that result in any manner? The answer is no.  

Trump and other republicans pressured the two republicans on the 4 member Michigan election board. Their goal was to pressure them into refusing to certify the election. One of the two republicans managed to obey the law and voted with the two democrats to certify the result. A deadlock could easily have led to the republican controlled legislature appointing Trump electors, thereby voiding the popular vote, which was the expressed objective of the anti-democracy party.  

Republicans have learned a valuable lesson from the 2020 election. If a steal is going to be successful, it is important to have party loyalists who will do what they are told at key choke points. Proposal introduced for legislators to choose Georgia elections chief (the Georgia state house speaker, David Ralston (R), wants to have elections administered by the republican legislature, taking away that responsibility form the voter elected Secretary of State who refused to bend to republican political pressure to anoint Donald as the winner in Georgia)

Michigan Certifies Joe Biden's Victory In The State- NPR

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Donald Trump Claims He Won When Asked Why Joe Biden's Team Not Invited to Vaccine Summit (12/8/2020)

Trump’s embarrassing Four-Pinocchio claim about Florida and Ohio - The Washington Post Just another demonstrably false lie. 

Trump pressures congressional Republicans to help his fight to overturn the election - The Washington Post (12/9/20)

As Trump Rails Against Loss, His Supporters Become More Threatening - The New York Times

One false claim that Donald makes repeatedly is that the Democrats manufactured ballots in a late night dump when they saw how many people had voted in person for Demagogue Don. This is a typical claim made in a 12/8/2020 tweet: 

Donald is referring to mail-in ballots in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and  Wisconsin. The republican legislatures in those states prevent the election officials from counting mail-in ballots until election day. Given the volume and that restriction, the tallies would not start until late on election day and the following day which is what republicans refer to as a vote dump, claiming in effect that the mail-in ballots were unlawful.  

Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, 2020 - Ballotpedia

Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots in Wisconsin, 2020 - Ballotpedia

Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots in Michigan, 2020 - Ballotpedia

Without any doubt IMO, Donald and the political party that he controls have done more to damage American democracy than Putin could ever hope to do. Their methods and goals are consistent with the rise of authoritarianism. 

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Donald has selected Scott O'Grady to become the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Affairs. 

Scott checks all of the important qualification boxes in TrumpWorld for this important position. 

For example, Scott claims that Donald won the presidency by a landslide and even carried California. Scott O'Grady: Trump Pentagon nominee spreads debunked conspiracies and tweets suggesting Trump declare martial law; White House Pentagon nominee calls for martial law as Trump fires advisory board | The Independent 

He supports General Flynn's recommendation that martial law needs to be declared to prevent Biden from becoming President. Michael Flynn calls for Trump to suspend the constitution and declare martial law 

O'Grady called General Mattis a "traitor". 

Backing Trump, Some Ex-Military Officers Spread Conspiracies, Urge Martial Law-NPR

The anti-democracy party is growing in strength. Trump lost re-election by only 77K votes in 4 states. 

As lawyers keep pushing Trump election challenges, calls for sanctions mount - ABC News  

221 congressional Republicans won't say whether Biden or Trump won the election, Washington Post survey finds - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: Just 25 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win, Washington Post survey finds

Pro-Trump legal crusade peppered with bizarre blunders - POLITICO

Trump and Giuliani’s star witness at Michigan hearing had been charged with obscenity 

Michigan judge rejects suit from disavowed Trump attorney Sidney Powell The court found the lawsuit riddled with nothing more than theories, speculation and conjecture. 

Opinion Excerpt:  "In fact, this lawsuit seems to be less about achieving the relief Plaintiffs seek — as much of that relief is beyond the power of this Court — and more about the impact of their allegations on People’s faith in the democratic process and their trust in our government. . . Plaintiffs ask this Court to ignore the orderly statutory scheme established to challenge elections and to ignore the will of millions of voters. This the Court cannot, and will not, do. The people have spoken."

The anti-democracy party will continue it ongoing crusade to undermine the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy and democratic processes and norms relating to elections. 

Trump’s Final Days of Rage and Denial - The New York Times (12/5/2020)(This article notes that Trump had posted or reposted 130 messages claiming he lost the election through fraud, while mentioning the pandemic in 4 tweets and those simply asserted how right he was about the outbreak and the experts wrong.)

NV Supreme Court denies Trump campaign lawsuit seeking overturn of presidential election (6 to 0 decision)

Republicans Pushed to Restrict Voting- The New York Times This is to be expected from the anti-democracy party. 

Opinion | Trump’s Lesson for the Media - The New York Times This article was written by Jorge Ramos, a Univision reporter, who requested in a letter an interview with Trump back in 2015. Trump did not respond to the letter but posted the Jorge's address and phone number, a  Trump tactic, that was followed by threats and hateful calls to Mr. Ramos, an American citizen, by Trumpsters which intimidation efforts are the anticipated and welcomed result. When Ramos tried to ask Donald a question at a news conference thereafter, security personnel physically escorted him out of the room. Trump told Ramos to "Go Back to Univision", just another Trumpian racial slur which reads "go back to your own country". 

It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump eBook: Stevens, Stuart 

Trump thinks that exercising too much uses up the body’s ‘finite’ energy - The Washington Post

Fox News ‘Hard News’ Show Buys GOP’s ‘Fascinating’ Effort to Steal Election The night anchors at Fox are recognized correctly as Trump propagandists and spreaders of Fake News and fact free conspiracy theories. The daytime anchors are not much better. There is at most IMO 2 journalists working at Trump TV.

Video Doesn't Show 'Suitcases' of Illegal Ballots in Georgia - FactCheck.org Just another false claim promoted by republican huckster hustlers and their media apparatchiks at Fox and other "conservative" "news" Trump media outlets.  

Trump warns House GOP against voting for bipartisan defense bill - CBS News Donald is very upset about a provision, "which would create a commission to study renaming bases named for Confederate officials." 

PolitiFact | Trump said no candidate has won Florida and Ohio and lost. Pants on Fire! 

Sidney Powell’s secret ‘military intelligence expert,’ key to fraud claims in election lawsuits, never worked in military intelligence - The Washington Post The guy was a wheeled vehicle mechanic who never even graduated from an intelligence training program. Trump's political party really does hate accurate reporting and responsible fact based journalism which is per se Fake News in TrumpWorld. 

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1. Added 85 SLRC (Fidelity Taxable Account)-Bought 75 at $17.45; 10 at $17.59: 

Quote: Solar Capital Ltd.  (SLRC)- A BDC 

Stock Information as of 12/11/20: 

SLRC SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (summary of investments starts at page 7)

Management: External 

Website: Home

2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 29 and ends at page 63)

Recent News: Solar Capital Ltd. Acquires Kingsbridge Holdings LLC; Expands Specialty Finance Platform (11/5/20)("With the acquisition, Solar Capital will have invested approximately $216 million, in a combination of approximately $136 million of equity and $80 million of debt, to acquire 87.5% of Kingsbridge in partnership with the Kingsbridge management team which is rolling a portion of their equity ownership as part of the transaction. . . . Kingsbridge Holdings is a leading independent lessor of information technology, industrial, healthcare, and commercial essential-use equipment to a diverse set of high credit quality customers. . . Kingsbridge is expected to distribute substantially all of its net earnings on a quarterly basis.")

This add raised my average cost per share in this account from $16.03 to $17.25. I discussed this purchase and the recent earnings report in this 11/16/20 comment. 

Average cost per share this account: $17.25 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 per share ($1.64 annually)

A dividend is possible since this BDC is currently unable to cover it with net investment income. 

Yield at AC = 9.51%

Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/16/20 

Net Asset Value Per Share History:  

9/30/20: $20.14   10-Q

12/31/19: $21.44

12/31/18: $21.75 

12/31/17: $21.81

12/31/16: $21.74

12/31/15: $20.79 

12/31/14: $22.05

12/31/13: $22.50

12/31/12: $22.70

12/31/11: $22.02

Initial Public Offering: Prospectus February 2010, priced to the public at $18.5 and at $17.205 to the underwriters 

For an externally managed BDC, I regard that history as stable. 

Last Buy Discussion: Item #1.F. Restarted SLRC-Bought 5 at $16.4; 5 at $16.1; 5 at $15.7  (7/30/20 Post) 

5 Year Financials: 

5 Year Chart:  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

Net investment Income = $.34 per share 

The portfolio is 100% performing.  

net debt-to-equity was 0.56x

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20: Summary of investments starts at page 7. 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.C. Eliminated SLRC-Sold 60 at $21.56-Used Commission Free Trade (10/17/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.14)

Other Profit Snapshots: 

2016 SLRC 50 Shares +$43.98 

2015 SLRC 50 Shares +$18.95

So far, I have not sold any shares for a loss. 

Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend payments which is generally easier said than done. I am just trying to cope here with the Fed's Jihad Against the Saving Class. 

SLRC Realized Gains to Date: $110.07  

2. Small Ball: 

A. Sold 30 PACB at $22.58: 

Quote: Pacific Biosciences of California Inc. 

"Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (NASDAQ:PACB), is empowering life scientists with highly accurate long-read sequencing. The company’s innovative instruments are based on Single Molecule, Real-Time (SMRT®) Sequencing technology, which delivers a comprehensive view of genomes, transcriptomes, and epigenomes, enabling access to the full spectrum of genetic variation in any organism. Cited in thousands of peer-reviewed publications, PacBio® sequencing systems are in use by scientists around the world to drive discovery in human biomedical research, plant and animal sciences, and microbiology." Sounds cool. 

Profit Snapshot:  +$408.38

This Lotto was bought in 2016 at $8.9: Item # 1 Update For The Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 5/9/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

PACB SEC Filings 

Investment Strategy: Lottery Ticket Basket

5 Year Chart Through 12/9/20 (day of sell): 

As of 12/9/2020, the 52 week range was between $2.2 to $23.23.  

Last "Earnings" Report: "Total revenue for the third quarter of 2020 was $19.1 million, compared with $21.9 million for the same period of 2019. . . Net loss for the third quarter of 2020 was $23.7 million, compared to $29.1 million for the same period of 2019." SEC Filed Press Release 

On 12/8/20, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its PT to $25 from $16. 

Illumina's Failed Acquisition Bid: As far as I can tell, the price parabola started, oddly enough, after Illumina was forced to abandon its acquisition effort due to antitrust concerns.

Illumina's Termination Fee Payments to PACB 

The abandoned acquisition price was in the mid-single digits as I recall. 

The upside momentum gain steam with some new products: Pacific Biosciences Launches the Sequel IIe System to Accelerate Adoption of Highly Accurate HiFi Sequencing 

The company also recently had what I would call a successful stock offering. Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock 

B. Restarted IMGN-Bought 10 at $5.85; 5 at $5.45:  

Quote: Immunogen Inc.  (IMGN)

Closing Price 12/11: IMGN $6.58 +$0.16  +2.49% 

IMGN SEC Filings 

Website: ImmunoGen 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 

2019 Annual Report 

Pipeline 

Drug Candidates: See pages 22-23 10-Q 

The "lead program is mirvetuximab soravtansine, a first-in-class investigational ADC targeting folate receptor alpha, or FRα, a cell-surface protein overexpressed in a number of epithelial tumors, including ovarian, endometrial, and non-small-cell lung cancers. While FORWARD I, our Phase 3 clinical trial did not meet its primary endpoint, in post hoc exploratory analyses in the FRα-high population scored by the PS2+ method, mirvetuximab was associated with longer progression free survival, by blinded independent review committee, a higher overall response rate, and longer overall survival ."  (emphasis added)

"Following consultation with the FDA, we moved forward with two new trials of mirvetuximab: SORAYA, a single-arm clinical trial that, if successful, could lead to accelerated approval of mirvetuximab; and MIRASOL, a randomized Phase 3 clinical trial that, if successful, could lead to full approval of mirvetuximab. We are actively enrolling both studies and expect to report top-line data from SORAYA in the third quarter of 2021 and top-line data from MIRASOL in the first half of 2022. If SORAYA is successful, as previously noted, we expect to submit an application for accelerated approval of mirvetuximab in the applicable patient population to the FDA during the second half of 2021 and, thereafter, to seek full approval on the basis of a confirmatory Phase 3 trial, MIRASOL."

In October 2020, a development occurred that perked my interest enough to restart a lottery ticket position. If the ongoing trials involving mirvetuximab fail, which may not be known for at least 9 more months, I would expect IMGN's stock price to be cut in half.  

IMGN  "entered into a collaboration and license agreement with Hangzhou Zhongmei Huadong Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.  or Huadong, a subsidiary of Huadong Medicine Co., Ltd., under which Huadong will exclusively develop and commercialize mirvetuximab in the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, which we refer to as Greater China. Under the terms of the collaboration and license agreement, we will receive a non-refundable upfront payment of $40.0 million and are eligible to receive additional milestone payments of up to $265.0 million as certain development, regulatory, and net sales objectives are achieved. We are also eligible to receive tiered low double digit to high teen royalties as a percentage of mirvetuximab commercial sales by Huadong in Greater China. Huadong is responsible for the development and commercialization of mirvetuximab in Greater China except in limited circumstances. Huadong will also have the opportunity to participate in our global clinical studies of mirvetuximab. We retain all of our rights to mirvetuximab in the rest of the world and will continue to be responsible for the development and commercialization of mirvetuximab in the United States and other geographies outside of Greater China." (emphasis added)

ImmunoGen and Huadong Medicine Announce Strategic Collaboration to Develop and Commercialize Mirvetuximab Soravtansine in Greater China 

See also, 2019 Annual Report at pp. 3-7 for more details. 

So maybe this drug mirvetuximab will end up being successful or maybe not. I decided to risk up to my previously book total profit. If that drug fails in its currently ongoing trial, the stock will plummet. 

I discussed the ten share purchase in a 11/19/20 comment and in a comment published last Wednesday. 

Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold 50 IMGN at $9.58 (2/12/2018 Post)(profit snapshot = $383.48); Item # 3.C. Sold 100 IMGN at $3.55 (3/8/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $77.48) IMGN SEC Filings 

Total Profit to Date: $460.96

"Investment" Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Forward Sell of Future Royalty Payments: IMGN achieved a measure of success when it licensed to Roche its "maytansinoid ADC technology" that led to its HER2-targeting ADC compound, Kadcyla which has been approved for marketing in the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries. The company sold its future royalty stream arising from sales of Kadcyla in two transactions receiving $265.2M. Page 18 10-Q  

Summary of Agreements with Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Novartis and Cytom X-Both Involve early clinical stage drug candidates: 

5 Year Chart:

Last "Earnings" Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

ImmunoGen (IMGN) Investor Presentation - Slideshow (NASDAQ:IMGN) | Seeking Alpha (11/20/20) 

Other News: 

ImmunoGen Raises $54.8 Million in Gross Proceeds Through its At-the-Market Facility (10/12/20)

ImmunoGen Announces FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for IMGN632 in Relapsed or Refractory Blastic Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cell Neoplasm (10/5/20)

ImmunoGen Announces Closing of Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares (1/27/20; public offering at $4.25 per share)

C. Started IPAY as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $57.83:

Quote: ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF Overview 

Closing Price 12/11/20: IPAY $63.13 +$0.35  +0.56% 

This ETF focuses on "the mobile and electronic payments industry, specifically focusing on credit card networks, payment infrastructure and software services, payment processing services, and payment solutions (such as smartcards, prepaid cards, virtual wallets)."

Sponsor's website: IPAY - ETFMG®

Expense Ratio: .75%  

Top 10 Holdings:  

D. Passing the Time of Day with DPG (highest cost shares held in Fidelity Taxable Account)-Sold 15 at $11.62: 

Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc. Overview 

Position this account before pare: 

Profit Snapshot:  +$4.29

Morningstar Rating: 1 star, Duff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc (DPG) Quote | Morningstar (click portfolio holdings)

IMO, the 1 star rating is deserved based on past performance.  

The main problem has not been security selection but the fund's exposure to energy infrastructure companies that is one of its investment categories. That category has been in a brutal bear market since 2014. 

A secondary problem is that the fund invests in international stocks which have generally significantly underperformed their U.S. counterparts. 

The international stocks have recently been positive contributors to the fund's total return while some of the U.S. electric utility stocks are down YTD.  

For example, the fund has a 7.24% weighting, as of 12/4/20, in Iberdrola, a Spanish utility company, that was up 26.36% YTD; and a 5.64% weighting in Enel is up  20.67%.

Over the past few weeks, the depressed energy infrastructure stocks have been positive contributors, but are still down YTD. 

 

Leveraged: Yes-substantial (generally close to 30% with the percentage dependent on the total value of the portfolio)

DPG SEC Filings 

Portfolio as of  7/31/20: SEC Filing 

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 4/30/20):  

Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc.

Borrowings described at pages 20-21.  

Average Cost this account was reduced from $10.79 to $10.48 (25+ shares)

Dividend:  Quarterly at $.35  (received 1 quarterly dividend on sold lots)

The dividend has substantial ROC support. 

Yield at new AC: 13.36%

Next Ex Dividend: 12/14/20  

Data Date of 11/11/20 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.68

Closing Market Price: $11.72

Discount: -14.33%

Sourced: DPG-CEF Connect 

DPG Round-Trip Snapshots: +$887.88

Net Profit/Some Shares sold for a loss

E. Started PRNT as a Placeholder-Bought 2 at $26.85: 

Quote 3D Printing ETF Overview 

Closing Price 12/11/20: PRNT $29.91 -$0.35 -1.17% 

Sponsor's Website: The 3D Printing ETF - PRNT 

Expense Ratio: .66%

Top 10 Holdings: 

I recently discussed a Lotto purchase of 3D Systems Corp. (DDD); Item # 2.I. Bought 10 DD at $6 and 5 at $5.8 (10/28/20 Post) which is currently the #2 weighted holding in this ETF. I have traded successfully SSYS but I have not discussed that one here.   

F. Eliminated FLGB-Sold 11 at $21.49: 

Quote: Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF Overview 

Profit Snapshot: $15.8

Last Discussed: Item # 1.I Bought 10 FLGB at $20.12 (8/15/20 Post) 

Sponsor's Website:  Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF - Overview

Expense Ratio: .09%

My thought was to go back to a zero position until there was clarity whether the U.K. and the EU could work out a soft exit package. Brexit: 'Strong possibility' of no trade deal with EU - PM - BBC News

Significant weightings in Royal Dutch and BP have contributed to this ETF's overall poor performance, but those stocks did rally last month and contributed to this ETFs upside.  

G. Pared PDM (Schwab Account)-Sold 10 at $14.65 (highest cost lot): 

Quote: Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A  (PDM)

Closing Price 12/11/20: PDM $16.18 -$0.03 -0.19% 

Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc- Investor Relations

SEC Filings

Position Before Pare This Account: 

My average cost per share was reduced from $12.65 to $12.19: 

Profit Snapshot: +$1.46

I sold the 10 share lot bought at $14.5 on 5/20/20 using FIFO accounting. Item # 4.C. Started PDM-Bought 10 at $14.5 (6/27/20 Post)

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.H. Added to PDM Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $13.6; 5 at $13.3; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.69; 5 at $11.4; 10 at $11.3 (10/31/20 Post) I discussed the third quarter report in that post. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share ($.84 annually)

Dividend History | Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.

I do not view PDM's dividend history positively. The quarterly penny rate has remained at $.21 since it was last raised in the 2014 4th quarter from $.20. Obviously, PDM is not a dividend growth candidate. While acknowledging that fact, trading a position that effectively reduces my average cost by buying the dips and selling the rips can provide a decent total return in today's abnormally low interest rate environment. 

Yield at $12.19 AC this Account: 6.89%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/25/20

Maximum Position this Account: 100 Shares

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

Office REIT stocks were trashed for several months earlier this year, but started to bounce back after Pfizer released its vaccine results 

H. Pared RF-Sold 10 shares at $15.6 and 25 at $16.05 (highest cost lots in Fidelity Taxable): 

These pares, which generated a profit of $42.67, reduced my average cost per share to $8.97 from $12.48.   

Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 9/30/20: $11.49

My current average cost per shares is at a 21.9% discount to tangible book value per share as of 9/30/20. 

Quote: Regions Financial Corp.

Closing Price 12/11: RF $15.54 -$0.31 -1.96% 

RF Analyst Estimates

SEC Filings

2019 Annual Report

Profit Snapshot: +$42.67

Dividend: Quarterly at $.155 per share ($.62 annually)

Dividend History | Regions Financial Corporation

Yield at New AC  of $8.97 = 6.91%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/3/20

Last Substantive Buy Discussion:Item # 3.C. Added 5 RF at $10.37; 5 at $9.3; 5 at $8; 5 at $7.5  (4/11/20 Post) I discussed the 2019 4th quarter earnings report in that post. Those shares are still owned. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

"The company reported net income available to common shareholders of $501 million, an increase of 30 percent compared to the third quarter of 2019. Earnings per diluted share were $0.52, a 33 percent increase. Total revenue grew 10 percent".

I recently had 2 RF senior unsecured bonds redeemed early. I still own 2 that will soon mature. Item # 4.C. Bought 2 Regions Financial 3.2%  SU Bonds Maturing on 2/8/21 at a Total Cost of 98.957 (5/16/20 Post) 

I. Started REGL as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $61.1; 1 at $60.1: 

Quote: ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF Overview 

Closing Price 12/11: REGL $62.17  +$0.03  +0.05% 

This ETF owns stocks in the S & P MidCap 400 that have raised their dividends for at least 15 consecutive years. 

Sponsor's Website: ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF 

Expense Ratio: .41%

Holdings: 50  

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate 

Top Holdings as of 12/4/20 (with weightings at 2% or higher): 

Of those stocks, I currently have small ball positions in UBSI, NJR, and ORI. 

J. Eliminated EBMT-Sold 10 at $20.65: 

Quote: Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.

EBMT SEC Filings

Corporate Profile – Opportunity Bank (Helena, MT)

Profit Snapshot: +$47.54

Discussed buy at  Item # 1.G. Bought 10 EBMT at $15.9 (9/5/20 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.0975 per share ($.39) The yield at my $15.9 purchase price was only 2.45% and at 1.89% at $20.65. 

As I mentioned when discussing my purchase, the dividend yield was below my 4% minimum stating level. I was not going to buy additional shares anywhere near the current price, so I sold the 10 shares. 

Earnings have been good due to a substantial and ultimately unsustainable increase in mortgage banking revenues. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release

"net income in the third quarter of 2020 increased 55.4% to $6.4 million, or $0.94 per diluted share, compared to $4.1 million, or $0.63 per diluted share, in the third quarter a year ago, reflecting the high level of contributions from mortgage banking and gains from sale of loans. Net income increased 11.2% when compared to $5.7 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, in the preceding quarter. In the first nine months of 2020, net income increased 88.0% to $16.0 million, or $2.35 per diluted share, compared to $8.5 million, or $1.32 per diluted share, in the first nine months of 2019."

K. Pared FRAF-Sold 5 at  $27 (highest cost lot Fidelity Taxable): 

Quote: Franklin Financial Services Corp. (FRAF)

Profit Snapshot: +$20.97

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

FRAF SEC Filings

Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Bought 5 FRAF at $22.8 and 5 at $22 (11/7/2020 Post) I discussed the third quarter report in that post. 

New Average Cost this Account: $22 (5 shares)

Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 9/30/20: $29.97

My average cost per share is at a 26.59% discount to the tangible book value per share as of 9/30/20. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share

Yield at AC of $22: 5.45%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/5/20  

L. Pared BAC-Sold 2 at $27.41 (highest cost lot): 

Quote: Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

BAC Analyst Estimates

BAC SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 

Profit Snapshot: $3.59

Last Discussed : Item # 1.J. (9/26/20 Post)

New Average Cost Per Share: $23.99 (permitted to buy when the purchase price lowers that average cost number)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share 

Dividend/Split History | Bank of America Corporation I view that history with disfavor. 

Yield at AC = 3%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/3/20 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Tangible Book Value Per Share: $20.23

M. Pared GLQ-Sold 10 at $12.27 (highest cost lot Fidelity Taxable): 

Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview-a CEF

Sponsor's Website: Clough Global - GLQ

GLQ SEC Filings

Holdings as of 7/31/20  (SEC Filing)

GLQ- CEF Connect

Profit Snapshot: +$9.04

Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added 8 GLQ at $10.95 (11/28/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 2 at $11.11 ( 10/24/20 Post); Item #1.H. Started GLQ-Bought 10 at $11.37; 10 at $11.18 (8/8/20 Post)

New Average Cost Per Share this account: $11.09

Dividend: Monthly at $.1105, supported by ROC ($1.3248 annually) 

Yield at current AC = 11.95%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/19/20

Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend payments before the ROC adjustment to the cost basis. Return of Capital and CEFs - Fidelity; Return of Capital and CEFs: Part 3 - Fidelity

N. Started AGR as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $45.95: 

Quote: Avangrid Inc.- A natural gas and electric utility holding company

Stock Information as of 12/11/20: 

Iberdrola S.A., "a corporation  organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Spain, a worldwide leader in the energy industry, directly owns 81.5% of outstanding shares of AVANGRID common stock." as of 12/31/19. 2019 Annual Report at page 6 

AGR is a "leading, sustainable energy company with approximately $35 billion in assets and operations in 24 U.S. states". The company "has two primary lines of business: Avangrid Networks and Avangrid Renewables. Avangrid Networks owns eight electric and natural gas utilities, serving more than 3.3 million customers in New York and New England. Avangrid Renewables owns and operates a portfolio of renewable energy generation facilities across the United States. AVANGRID employs approximately 6,600 people."

The largest owned regulated utility is New York Electric and Gas that serves, as of 12/31/19, approximately 930,000 electric and gas customers across 40% of upstate New York. Other regulated utilities include Rochester Gas and Electric, Central Maine Power, United Illuminating Company, and several natural gas distribution utilities.   

This is my first purchase. 

AGR SEC Filings

AGR 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 

AGR Investor Relations Website 

Recent News: AVANGRID and PNM Resources Announce Merger Plans (10/21/20) ("PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM) is an energy holding company based in Albuquerque, NM, with 2019 consolidated operating revenues of $1.5 billion. Through its regulated utilities, PNM and TNMP, PNM Resources has approximately 2,811 megawatts of generation capacity and provides electricity to approximately 790,000 homes and businesses in New Mexico and Texas.")

SEC Filed Investor Presentation on merger 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 per share ($1.76 annually)

AVANGRID Declares Quarterly Dividend 

Yield at $45.95 = 3.83%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/10/2020 (after purchase)

5 year Financials: 

5 Year Chart: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): AVANGRID Reports Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Adjusted E.P.S. was a disappointment at $.32, down from $.40 in the 2019 third quarter. The company CEO attributed the decline to "expenses incurred in advance of receiving final rate approvals in New York, lower wind production from existing assets and unfavorable market pricing." The adjusted E.P.S. guidance for 2020 was then at $1.9 to $2.00" This explains the Placeholder designation. I want a much lower price given the Y-O-Y decline in E.P.S. and the current P/E on anticipated 2020 NON-GAAP E.P.S.   

One reason for at least initiating a position that will be a tickler to pay attention is AGR's renewal generation assets and the possibility that the PNM merger will be accretive as projected now by management.   

O. Pared BAC-Sold 2 at $27.41: 

Quote:  Bank of America Corp. 

BAC Analyst Estimates

BAC SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot = $3.59

Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Started BAC-Bought 2 at $25.61; 1 at $25.28; 1 at  $23.97; 2 at $23.7; 1 at $23.31 (9/26/20 Post) 

I am simply selling my highest cost 2 shares.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.