Tuesday, October 25, 2022

AIO, AOD, AQN, BK, CTOPRA, DOC, EAI, FHN, FIW, FNB, GMREPRA, HPPPRC, LXP, OGN, OPI, UL

Economy

An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead The article refers to leading indicators index. US Leading Indicators The index has been trending further down in negative territory.

Sticky price inflation rose an annualized rate of 8.5% in September, up from 7.7% in August. Sticky-Price CPI - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta   

The monthly average 30 year mortgage rate in September was 6.11%, up from  5.22% in August. In September 2021, the average rate was at 2.9%. 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971 - Freddie Mac

We'll continue to see double-digit declines in home sales, says KPMG's Swonk

New One Family Houses Sold: United States-St. Louis Fed

Existing Home Sales -St. Louis Fed

Home Ownership Affordability Monitor - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (data through July 2022):

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks drop 15% after Beijing's power reshuffle makes the market 'uninvestable' Russia and China are ruled by 1 man dictators who have no internal restraints and no accountability for flawed decisions. Russia will remain "uninvestable" for decades while it remains to be seen whether China's dictator will make China's stocks uninvestable for a similar period. Both China and Russia are now 100% pure Orwellian countries. 

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Charts

Capacity Utilization: Total Index-St. Louis Fed

Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Consumer Credit; Liability, Level-St. Louis Fed

Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income-St. Louis Fed

Household Financial Obligations as a percent of Disposable Personal Income-St. Louis Fed

All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level/Gross Domestic Product-St. Louis Fed

Personal Saving Rate-St. Louis Fed

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims- St. Louis Fed

Unemployment Rate-St. Louis Fed

Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the C- (U-6)-St. Louis Fed

Share of Labor Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for the United States -St. Louis Fed

Households; Owners' Equity in Real Estate, Level -St. Louis Fed

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Average in the United States-St. Louis Fed

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index-St. Louis Fed

Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States-St. Louis Fed

Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks- St. Louis Fed

Cass Freight Index: Shipments-St. Louis Fed

Truck Tonnage-St. Louis Fed

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment-St. Louis Fed

E-Commerce Retail Sales-St. Louis Fed

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in the U.S. City Average-St. Louis Fed

WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends

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Trump:

The NYT published an article yesterday that contains some backtracking on whether Walt Nauta, allegedly seen on video tape carrying boxes out of storage at Mar-A-Lago, told the FBI that he was ordered to do so by Trump. This is how the NYT phrases this contention now: "One person briefed on that interview said he was clear with investigators that Mr. Trump had directed him to, while another said that he was less specific about who had told him to do so, but that the implication was that it was Mr. Trump." Prosecutors Pressure Trump Aides to Testify in Documents Case - The New York Times Nauta was not told prior to or during the FBI interviews that surveillance video captured him removing the boxes. The only issue is who told him to move them. Nauta has hired 2 Washington criminal defense attorneys. Nauta, a former military valet for Trump, does not seem to be the kind of person able to afford them. 

Trump's classified Mar-a-Lago documents held secrets about Iran, China - The Washington Post  

Trump knew voter fraud claims were wrong, federal judge says as he orders John Eastman emails turned over | CNN Politics

Emails show Trump, lawyers pushed claims of voter fraud they knew were false in federal court, judge says - CBS News

Judge David Carter rules Trump KNOWINGLY filed false documents in court, lying about election fraud - YouTube

Trump knew voter fraud numbers in court documents were false, judge says - The Washington Post

Donald responded to the evidence cited by the District Court Judge in a predictable manner. 'Nasty, wrong, ill-informed': Trump erupts at judge after being implicated in potential criminal offenses - Raw StoryTrump slams judge who said he knowingly pushed false voter fraud case 

As usual for this creature, Trump does not make any attempt to rebut the evidence, but offers only venomous conclusory statements that highlight his multiple personality disorders.

Trump: "Who’s this Clinton appointed 'Judge,' David Carter, who keeps saying, and sending to all, very nasty, wrong, and ill informed statements about me on rulings, or a case (whatever!), currently going on in California, that I know nothing about - nor am I represented. With that being said, please explain to this partisan hack that the Presidential Election of 2020 was Rigged and Stolen. Also, he shouldn’t be making statements about me until he understands the facts, which he doesn’t!"

This case involves John Eastman, a Trump attorney, who does not want to produce documents in response to a subpoena that he claims are protected by Trump's attorney client privilege. After reviewing the documents, the judge found that the crime exception to the attorney client privilege applies to several documents, including emails sent to Trump that indicate, according to the Judge, that Trump made a false statement in a court pleading; was told that it was false by his attorneys; and made it anyway.  

Trumpsters have threatened and intimidated election officials in Nevada that has resulted in multiple resignations and appointments of election deniers as chief election officials. Election Officials Quit in Fear After Harassment from Trump SupportersPro-Trump conspiracy theorists hound election officials out of officeNevada's Republican election deniers prepare to sabotage the midterms - The Washington Post

Don the Authoritarian criticized the Jury's unanimous non-guilty verdict in a perjury trial brought by John Durham against Igor Danchenko who was a source for the Steele dossier. Analyst who provided Trump-Russia dossier information is acquitted of lying to FBI 

In Trump's America, a jury is biased and the judge corrupt if they do not do what Donald wants. 

As usual Trump does not discuss actual facts or provide evidence to support his attack, but offers only conclusory statements and confirms his mental problems: 


Trump calls Danchenko verdict: 'Disgraceful judicial system' | Just The News

Bob Woodward on Donald Trump: "He is a threat to democracy" - CBS News Trump is the most powerful enemy of America's democracy since the nation's founding given his unwavering support from millions who are not reachable with accurate information. 

Over half the GOP candidates running in 2022 are election deniers - The Washington Post The primary danger to America's democracy has always come from its own citizens, and that threat has never been stronger than now.  

Right-wing roadshow recruits 'patriot warriors' to take America back - The Washington Post (some paid $500 for VIP tickets; waiting to be baptized in a black plastic animal trough containing freezing water; listening to speakers who claim that the election was stolen from Trump; Christianity is under attack by radical liberal democrats; covid vaccines kill people and that America is headed for a complete collapse in moral values); Pro-Trump ReAwaken America Tour Flies Off The Rails Over ‘Demonic Satellites’ And ‘Deep State’ McDonalds; Michael Flynn’s ReAwaken Roadshow Recruits ‘Army of God' | FRONTLINE These are a useful articles in understanding MAGA republicans, possibly a majority of them. The subject is the ReAwaken America tour that also sells tickets and merchandise to Trumpsters, as in Never Give a Sucker an Even Break (1941) - IMDb

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Russia/Putin:

Top Ukrainian general discusses war against Russia, Putin's nuclear threat: Exclusive - ABC News

Russia’s Draft Sends Barely Trained Men to War in Ukraine - The New York Times Many are already being sent back to Russia in coffins. 

Russian forces could face 'rout' in Kherson; US rejects Russian claim that Ukraine plans radioactive 'provocation' Russian army officers have left Kherson leaving recently mobilized and untrained civilians to defend Russian positions. 

If a dirty bomb is used in Ukraine, it will be detonated by Russia who would then blame Ukraine and use the Russian "false flag" operation as a "provocation" to use tactical nuclear weapons or, at a minimum, use this claim to sway public opinion in Russia more toward support for Putin's invasion. It is even possible that Putin would use a dirty bomb on his own troops and then blame Ukraine. 

Russia’s ‘Dirty Bomb’ Ploy - The Atlantic

Tactically, a dirty bomb would have no military significance and would only serve to contaminate a relatively small area of Ukraine's territory. 

For now at least, unable to beat the Ukrainian army, Russia seems content in destroying Ukrainian power stations and water purification plants, the intended purpose being to deprive civilians of power during the winter and clean water.    

In the Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia and Ukraine in 1994, Russia promised it would respect Ukraine's sovereignty and its existing borders, a farcical promise from Russia as events later proved. Ukraine agreed to turn over its nuclear weapons to Russia. It is not worth the effort to negotiate a treaty with the Russians. They will take what a country gives them and then break whatever promise made in return.  

Putin announced the imposition of "martial law" in the 4 Ukrainian territories illegally annexed by Russia. The reason given for imposing martial law was that Ukraine has not recognized Russia's claim to internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. 

Putin introduces martial law in illegally annexed Ukrainian regions

Bakhmut: Devastation on Ukraine's eastern front, where the notorious Wagner group is making gains | CNN The Wagner Group recruits from Russian jails, offering clemency for 6 months of service in Ukraine. The Ukrainians say those convicts are used as cannon fodder where there masters send them out into the open, Ukrainian artillery rounds rain down on them, and then the Russians direct fire at the Ukrainian position.   

Using Adoptions, Russia Turns Ukrainian Children Into Spoils of War - The New York Times This behavior is being investigated as another war crime committed by Russia. 

While Russia commits war crimes and crimes against humanity on a daily basis, the only way to hold that nation accountable is to sever all trade relations and foreign investment permanently. Russia can then continue being China's cats paw.

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1. Corporate Bonds

All bond purchases in the secondary market or at treasury auctions have a $1,000 par value per bond.  

Short term interest rates popped higher after the FED signaled that it anticipated raising the FF rate higher in 2022 and 2023 than previously expected by the Bond Ghouls. The Fed - September 21, 2022: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version

A. Bought 2 Citizens Financial 4.3% SU Maturning on 12/3/25 at a 99.323 Total Cost


Finra Page:  Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Rating: BBB

YTM at Total Cost  = 4.524%

Current Yield at TC = 4.33%

B. Bought 2 Public Service Enterprise 2.875% SU Maturing on 6/15/24 at a 97.93 Total Cost:

Purchased on 8/30/22. 

I now own 6 bonds. I also have sold my small ball position in the common stock. 

Issuer:  Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG)-Utility Holding Company

PEG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.08%, rounded down. 

Current Yield at TC:  2.94%, rounded up. 

C. Bought 1 Enterprise Products 3.9% SU Maturing on 2/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.841

Issuer: Operating entity for Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) who guarantees the notes: 

EPD SEC Filings 

EPD Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked) 

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+ 

YTM at Total Cost = 4.013%

Current Yield at TC = 3.91%, rounded up. 

D. Added 1 Enterprise Products Operating LLC 3.9% SU Maturing on 2/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.414

Purchased 10/11/22. Discussed out of time order. 

This is the same bond discussed in Item # 1.C. above. 

YTM at Total Cost = 5.137%

Current Yield at TC = 3.9629%

I now own 2 bonds

E. Bought 1 Potomac Electric 3.6% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 3/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.726:

Purchased on 9/1/22. 

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Exelon Corp.  (EXC) 

FINRA Page: 
Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: A2/A 

YTM at Total Cost = 3.786%

Current Yield at TC = 3.61%

I will most likely buy 2 more somewhere below 98. 

F. Bought 2 Lazard L.L.C. 3.75% SU Maturing on 2/13/25 at a 98.705 Total Cost

Issuer:  A wholly owned operating subsidiary of Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) 

LAZ Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

LAZ SEC Filings 

LAZ 2021 Annual Report 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost = 4.317%

Current Yield at TC = 3.8%

G. Bought 2 Cubesmart LP 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of  98.038


Purchased on 8/31/22. 

Issuer: Operating subsidiary of CubeSmart (CUBE) who guarantees the notes. 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked) 

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 4.665%

Current Yield at TC =  4.08%

I now own 4 bonds.

H. Bought 2 General Mills 4% SU Maturing on 4/17/25 at a Total Cost of 97.35

Purchased on 10/13/22. Discussed out of time order. 

Issuer: General Mills Inc. (GIS) 

GIS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

GIS SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 8/28/22 

I own the common stock. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 5.143%

Current Yield at TC = 4.1089%

I. Bought 1 Citigroup 5.2% SU Maturing on 4/19/24

Purchased 10/17/22-Fidelity Corporate Notes Program. 

Discussed out of time order. 

Quarterly interest payments

J. Bought 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.7% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.035

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR) 

ETR SEC Filings 

ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 The results for Entergy Arkansas start at page 111.  

Security: First Mortgage attached to substantially all assets.  

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: A2/A

YTM at Total Cost: 4.988%

Current Yield at TC = 3.774%   

In Item # 5.N. below, I discuss adding 5 EAI shares, a 4.875% Entergy Arkansas FM exchange traded baby bond that matures in 2066 unless called earlier at the issuer's option. The current yield using my total cost number of $22.44 is 5.43% vs. 3.774% for the 2024 FM bond. 

However, for that 1.656% increase in yield, I take on considerably more interest rate risk for the 2066 bond. 

The main interest rate risk for me buying the 2024 FM bond is the risk of lost opportunity, which is created by the YTM and current yield continuing to rise for this bond after purchase. I am willing to assume that type of risk since I can hold all bonds until maturity, and I increase my current income with all purchases.

While I bought EAI at a 10.24% discount to par value, that will not add much to my YTM if the bond is redeemed in 2066. I roughly calculate the YTM to maturity at 5.49%, barely above the current yield. 

If the issuer elected to redeem EAI in 5 years, which would occur only when the optional redemption would benefit the issuer, the YTM would increase to about 7.34%.   

2. Treasury Purchases-Secondary Market: $6,000

While I have continued to buy treasuries in the secondary market, I will be making far fewer purchases in favor of treasury bills and notes bought at auction. 

Between 10/25/22 through 11/15/22, I have $70K in 1 and 2 month treasury bills maturing in my Schwab account.  I have not decided on how to reinvest those proceeds.  To pick up more yield, some proceeds will likely be redirected into 10 lot corporate bond purchases, focusing on 2023 and 2024 maturities.  

A. Bought 1 Treasury 2.375% Coupon Maturing on 8/15/24 at 98.078

Purchased 9/2/22. 

YTM at Total Cost = 3.404%

Current Yield at TC = 2.42%

I now own 4 bonds. I will not be buying more. 

B. Bought 1 Treasury 2.5% Coupon Maturing on 1/31/24 at 98.726:


YTM at Total Cost: 3.428491%

Current Yield at TC = 2.5%, rounded down. 

I now own 4 bonds. I will not be buying more.  

C. Bought 1 Treasury 2.5% Coupon Maturing on 8/15/23 at 99.128:

YTM at Total Cost = 3.473%

Current Yield at TC = 2.522%

D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.5% Coupon Maturing on 8/15/23 at 98.5016

This is the same Treasury discussed in Item # 2.C. above. 

Purchased on 10/19/22. Discussed out of time order. 

YTM at Total Cost = 4.375%

Current Yield at TC: 2.538%

This one was bought in my Schwab account. When I placed the order, the following snapshot shows the Fidelity order book for this security: 

The Schwab price for a 1 bond lot was lower than Fidelity's best price for 250. 

I now own 4. I will not be buying more. 

E. Bought 1 Treasury 2% Coupon Maturing on 4/30/24 at 97.699:

YTM at Total Cost = 3.459%

Current Yield at TC = 2.047%

I now own 3 bonds. I will not be buying more. 

F. Bought 1 Treasury 3.25% Coupon Maturing on 8/31/24 at 97.765

Purchased 10/21/22. Discussed out of time order. 

YTM at Total Cost = 4.52%

Current Yield at TC = 3.3242%

I now own 3. 

3. Treasury Auction Purchases: $15,000

I will be participating in the 2 year treasury note auction today. 

Between 10/25/22 through 11/15/22, I have $70K in 1 and 2 month treasury bills maturing in my Schwab account. I have not decided on how to reinvest those proceeds.  To pick up more yield, I will be buying more 6 month and 1 year bills. Some proceeds will likely be redirected into 10 lot corporate bond purchases, focusing on 2023 and 2024 maturities. Schwab has a 1 per bond commission for corporate bond purchases but a $10 minimum. I will consequently use that account to buy 10 bonds. 

Investment Rate (coupon equivalent yield)

Coupon Equivalent Rate (CER) Definition

A. Bought at 10/18/22 Auction $10,000 Treasury Bill at 99.426

56 Day Bill

Matures on 12/20/22. 

Investment Rate = 3.763%

B. Bought $3,000 Treasury Bill at 10/25/22 Auction


182 Day Bill

Matures on 4/27/23

Investment Rate (coupon equivalent): 4.552%

C. Bought $2,000 Treasury Bill at 10/25/22 Auction

91 Day Bill

Matures on 1/26/23

Investment Rate (coupon equivalent): 4.097%

4. CD Purchases: $6,000

FDIC Insured. Acts as a pacifier for me.  

A. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 4.5% CDs Maturing on 10/21/24

Interest paid monthly. 

B. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 4.4% CDs Maturing on 4/22/24

Interest paid monthly. 

C. Bought 2 JP Morgan 4.7% CDs Maturing on 10/25/24

Interest paid semiannually. 

5. Small Ball

Utility stocks have taken a beating starting in September with the significant percentage rise in interest rates. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) fund closed at $78.12 on 9/12/22 and at $63.31 last Friday, up $1.15 that day. 

I eliminated earlier this all of my utility stocks (e.g. AEP, AGR, DUK, ETR, EVRG, PEG) but am gradually building a 100 share position in the higher yielding AQN discussed below. 

I am starting to buy more equity REIT preferred stocks as their prices plummet, creating 8%+ current yields for new purchases. 

One reason for their price decline, probably the most important, is the rise in the "risk free" treasury yields. Another reason is these junior securities, senior only to common stock, will not perform well when common stocks are volatile and in a significant downtrend. 

Equity REIT Preferred stocks, most with junk credit ratings, will normally sell at significant yield spreads to the 10 year treasury which closed yesterday at a 4.25% yield, up from 1.63% as of 1/3/22

So going down in price as treasury yields rise is to be expected and will likely continue until the intermediate term treasuries start to go back down in yield and volatility in common stocks subsides with a dominant uptrend in major indexes.   

A 4% yield spread to the current 10 year treasury yield is sufficient to perk my buying interest, but only in small lots as there is no sign yet that treasury yields are going to enter a dominant and persistent decline trend anytime soon.  

Unlike bank preferred stocks, which pay non-cumulative dividends, equity REIT preferred stocks pay cumulative dividends which can only be deferred after the common dividend is eliminated and a common dividend has to be paid when there is net income to preserve the REIT tax status. 

A 1 cent cash dividend would be enough to prevent deferral of the REIT cumulative preferred dividend. While that is the good news, the bad news is that the REIT is paying out already most of its cash available for distribution to common shareholders rather than building a nice cash cushion for the preferred dividend or to use most of that free cash flow to invest in new properties, reducing the need to finance with new debt.  

A. Added to AQN - Bought 5 at $10.69; 5 at $10.26 - Schwab Taxable Account:

Quotes: 

Algonquin Power & Utilities (U.S.: NYSE)

Algonquin Power & Utilities (Canada: Toronto)

AQN Analyst Estimates in USD | MarketWatch

Website: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.F. Added to AQN - Bought 5 at $12.88 (9/27/22 Post) 

I discussed the second quarter report in that post. 

In that post, I mentioned that AQN had hit a regulatory snag in its pending acquisition of Kentucky Power from American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP) 

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Announces Agreement to Acquire Kentucky Power (10/26/21) 

The snag involves Kentucky Power's 50% ownership in the Mitchell Coal Generation plant. AQN made it a condition of its acquisition that operating control of that plant be transferred to another AEP subsidiary, and AQN would then exit its position in 2028. West Virginia's regulatory agency refused to approve those changes. 

After that failure to secure approval, AQN and AEP modified their agreement to reduce the acquisition price by $200M. Algonquin Agrees to Path Forward on Kentucky Power Acquisition That press release does not specifically mention a $200M reduction in the price but merely says the revised price is $2.646B including the assumption of debt. The October 2021 press release announcing the acquisition had the price at $2.846B including the assumption of debt. 

While other publicly disclosed details are non-existent, that $200M reduction in the purchase price may be for AQN waiving the condition precedents involving that coal plant which AQN does not want.

Average cost per share: $13.25 (50 shares)

Prior AC was at $13.95

Working my way up to 100 shares. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.1808 ($.7232 annually)

Yield at New AC = 5.46%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/28/22

My only round-trip was to eliminate my 300 CAD share position. Item # 1. Sold 300 AQN:CA at C$19.51 (4/21/22 Post)(profit snapshot = C$303) 

B. Added to AIO -Bought 5 at $15.7

Quote: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Overview - A Balanced CEF

The fund owns corporate bonds, common stocks and convertible bonds. 

Working my way up to 100 shares. 

Sponsor's website: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund 

AIO SEC Filings 

AIO Portfolio | Morningstar

Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund - SEC Filed Shareholder Semiannual Report for the period ending 7/31/22. (schedule of investments starts at page 16)

Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Added 5 AIO at $16.15 (7/20/22 Post)Item # 3.G. Added to AIO - Bought 5 at $18.7; 5 at $18.08; 5 at $17.95; 5 at $17.2; 5 at $16.8 (5/19/22 Post) 

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

Data as of 10/10/22 Trade Date

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $18.22

Closing Market Price: $15.78

Discount: -13.39%

Sourced: AIO-CEF Connect 

Leveraged: Yes at 17.1% as of 10/18/22

Average cost per share: $17.67 (46+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.15 per share

I start to reinvest the dividend effective with the May 2022 payment. 

Yield at New AC = 10.19%  (regular monthly dividend only)

Last Ex Dividend: 10/12/22

Most of the price depreciation since my first 10 share purchase is due to a $3.45 per share short and long term capital gain distributions paid in January 2022. 

I owned only 10 shares on the ex dividend date.  

C. Added to GAM - Bought 5 at $34.25-Schwab Taxable Account:  

Quote: General American Investors Co. Inc. Overview 

SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the period ending 6/30/22 (cost at $607.045+M with the market value at $1.202+B, at page 4)

GAM SEC Filings 

Sponsor's website: General American Investors Company GAM is one of the oldest CEFs, established in 1927, and one of the few CEFs that survived the 1929 crash and the Great Depression. Portfolio turnover has averaged 20.9% over the past 5 years. 

Leveraged: Yes at about 15.74% as of 10/21/22 using preferred stock. General American Investors Co. Inc. 5.95% Cumulative Preferred Series B Stock

Last DiscussedItem #1.M. Restarted GAM in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $37.25;  5 at $36.95  (1/16/21 Post) 

Data as of 10/10/22 Trade Date

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $40.94

Closing Market Price: $34.19

Discount: -16.49%

Sourced: GAM-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab) 

Average cost per share: $35.6 (10 shares)

Recent Dividend History: The yield will depend on the highly variable capital gains distribution. The total 2021 year end dividend was $3.05 per share:  


Morningstar (currently rated 2 stars)

General American Investors (GAM) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists 25 top holdings)

GAM Trading Profits to Date: $606.84 

Prior Round-TripsItem # 2.B.Eliminated GAM-Sold 109+ at $32.74 (2/15/17 Post)(profit snapshot = +$88.53I reinvested the year end distribution of $320.29 to buy 9.8167 shares which were sold at a $13.41. profit)-Item # 1 Bought 100 GAM at $31.9-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 7/18/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Sold 107+ GAM at $34.44 (10/19/13 Post)(profit snapshot=$518.31/Total Return=$717.12))-Item # 3 Bought 100 of the Stock CEF $29.52 (9/20/2012 Post)

So far I have been content in selling the shares at a profit after collecting 1 or more year end distributions. 

D. Added to LXP - Bought 5 at $8.9-Schwab Taxable Account


Working my way up to 100 shares. 

Quote: Lexington Industrial Trust (LXP)

LXP SEC Filings

Properties | LXP Industrial Trust

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Last DiscussedItem # 4.E. Added to LXP- Bought 5 at $9.74 (9/20/22 Post) 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 3.I. Restarted LXP-Bought 10 at $10.47  (9/13/22 Post) I discussed the second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental

Average cost per share = $9.89 (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share

Yield at New AC = 4.85

Last Ex Dividend: 9/29/22 

LXP Realized Gains to Date: $1,914.49

The largest gain was $853.36. Item # 1.C. Sold 137+ LXP at $9.08  (9/12/18 Post)

E. Added to DOC - Bought 5 Shares at $13.5-Schwab Taxable Account

Quote:  Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)

DOC SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute 

Average cost per share: $14.32 (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually), last raised from $.225 effective for the 2017 4th quarter payment. 

Forget about dividend growth. 

DOC Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC = 6.4246%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/3/22

Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with a 100 share maximum position. Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. 

Last DiscussedItem # 4.A. Restarted DOC - Bought 10 at $14.94; 5 at $13.9- Schwab Taxable Account  (10/11/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Last EliminationItem # 1. Eliminated DOC- Sold 46+ at $17.66 (7/3/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $213.64) 

DOC Realized Gains to Date: $617.28

F. Added to OGN - Bought 5 at $23.25-Fidelity Taxable

Quote: Organon & Co.  (OGN)

OGN SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report (summary of risk factors starts at page 26 and ends at page 41)

OGN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Organon | Products list

Last DiscussedItem # 3.G. Bought 5 OGN at $25.1; 5 at $23.6 - Fidelity Taxable Account (10/4/22 Post) 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 3.I. Added to OGN - Bought 5 at $28.72 (9/6/22 Post)I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release 

Average cost per share = $26.66 (40+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.28 per share  ($1.12 annually)

Yield at New AC = 4.2%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/12/22

OGN's debt level, acquired mostly as part of its separation from Merck, is worrisome.   

Page 14 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 

OGN Merck Debt Assumption: 

Page 50- 2021 Annual Report and Form 8-K Basically, shortly before the seperation, Merck issued debt, received the proceeds, and OGN assumed the obligation to pay interest and the principal amounts at maturity. 

In the second quarter, 77.9% of OGN's revenues originated in international markets and GAAP accounting profits will be negatively impacted by the USD's strength.  

Another issue is recent negative annual E.P.S. trend. The 2021 E.P.S. was $6.28 and the average estimate for 2022 is currently at $4.93. The consensus for 2023 and 2024 are $5.22 and 5.61 respectively. If OGN hits that $5.22 estimate, the P/E at $23.25, my last purchase price, would be 4.45.  

G. Added to HPPPRC - Bought 5 at $15.38; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.65; 5 at $12.7 -Fidelity Taxable Account





Working my way up to 100 shares. 

Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. 4.750% Cumulative Preferred C Stock 

Issuer: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.  (HPP)

Website: Hudson Pacific Properties: A West Coast Real Estate Group

HPP SEC Filings

Last DiscussedItem # 2.K. Bought 10 HPPPRC at $17.36 (6/1/22 Post) That was my first purchase. 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

SecurityProspectus

Par Value: $25 (offered at $25 in November 2021)

Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock 

Maturity: Potentially perpetual unless called by issuer. 

Optional Call Date: Anytime on or after 11/16/26

Stopper Clause: Standard

Average cost per share = $15.08 (30 shares) 

The price exceed par value frequently exceed the $25 par value during the 2021 4th quarter and into January 2022. 

As of 10/21/22 Close

Dividends: Paid quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified 

Yield at New AC7.8747% (.0475% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.1875 annually per share ÷ $15.08 AC per share)

At $12.5 total cost per share, which is 1/2 of par value, the yield is double the coupon rate of 4.75% or 9.5%.

Yield at last purchase price of $12.7 = 9.35%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/22

H. Bought 5 CTOPRA at $19.85-Schwab Taxable Account

Quote:  CTO-PA 

This is my first purchase. My next purchase will be a 5 share lot at below $19.

Issuer: CTO Realty Growth Inc.  (CTO) | MarketWatch - An Externally Managed Equity REIT

I recently started a position in the common shares. 

CTO SEC Filings 

Recent NewsCTO Realty Growth Announces Sale of Three Properties in Jacksonville, Florida for $34.9M(9/26/22)(one of the properties was CTO's last remaining multi-tenant office building); CTO Realty Growth Announces Acquisition of Mixed-Use, Grocery Anchored Property in Richmond for $93.9M (10/17/22) 

Security: Prospectus 

Par value: $25

Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock senior only to common stock. 

Coupon: 6.375%

Issuer Optional Call Date: On or after 7/6/26

Dividend: Quarterly at $.3984 per share, cumulative and non-qualified. 

Yield at $19.85 = 8.03%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/22

Stopper Clause: Yes, standard provision. 

I. Added 5 GMREPRA at $23.06

Quote: GMRE-PA 


Average cost per share = $24.13 (15 shares) 

Security: Prospectus
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.5%
Dividends: Paid quarterly, cumulative and non-qualified.  
Stopper Clause: Standard 
Yield at New AC of $24.13  =  7.77%
Yield at $23.06 Last Purchase: 8.131%
Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 9/15/22
Last Ex Dividend: 10/13/22

Last DiscussedItem # 4.C. Bought 10 at $24.66 (10/11/22 Post) 

Other Buy DiscussionItem # 2.A. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $21; 5 at $16.88 (4/18/20 Post) I still own those shares in another account. 

Prior Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Sold 70 GMREPRA at $25.87 (4/24/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $208.36); Item # 1.A. Sold 30 GMREPRA at $24.84 (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.79)

Maximum Position All Accounts: 100 shares 

The next purchase, assuming no material change in the credit risk, will be a 5 share lot at below $22. 

J. Added 5 GLQ at $6.82

Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview - A CEF

Sponsor's website: Clough Global - GLQ

GLQ SEC Filings 

SEC Filing-Holdings as of 7/31/22 I am not a fan and would describe several stock holdings as speculative clinical stage biotech companies.  

SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/22 (GLQ holdings list starts at page 21)

This CEF has performed poorly since I first bought shares. Adding to the position with a 5 share buy, part of an effort to dig myself out of hole, violates the First Law of Holes.  

Leveraged: Substantial at 57.17% as of 10/17/22. 

Average cost per share: $10.23 (25 shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.1162 per share.

Recent distributions have been classified as 100% return of capital based on the fund's section 19(a) notices. The dividend needs to be eliminated until it can be supported by capital gains.  

I changed my dividend option to reinvestment starting with the next payment.  

Yield at AC 13.63%

I would not characterize a 100% ROC supported dividend as having any yield. 

Last Ex Dividend:  10/20/22 (owned all as of)  

Data Date of 10/17/22 Purchase

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $7.61

Closing Market Price: $6.82

Discount: -10.38%

Sourced: GLQ-CEF Connect 

K. Pared FHN in Fidelity Account - Sold 26+ Shares at $24.02

Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)

SEC Filings

FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investment Categories: Regional Bank Basket Strategy/Arbitrage

I discussed the reasons for reducing my arbitrage position in a comment published on 10/18/22. 

Toronto Dominion is in the process of acquiring FHN for $25 per share, but the acquisition has not yet received regulatory approval. The price may be increased slightly for a delay after 11/27/22. TD to Expand in the Southeastern U.S. with Acquisition of First Horizon 

I sold the highest cost lots held in this account, including the shares discussed here: Item # 4.E. Added to FHN in Fidelity Taxable Account (6/15/22 Post)   

In response to that announcement, I increased my FHN position by buying 450 shares as an arbitrage play. Item # 1. Added 450 FHN at $21.53 (5/19/22 Post) The shares sold were higher cost shares bought for the same reason and 3+ shares bought with a recent quarterly dividend. I am keeping for now that 450 share lot and all shares with a low cost basis that were acquired before the merger announcement.   

I may sell the 450 share lot in the $24-$25 range to lock in a profit near the buyout price and to harvest the gain in 2022 when my income took a hit from far lower stock profits which are currently about 1/3 of my $25K minimum annual level. Trading profits have been difficult to achieve in 2022. My 2023 income will be much higher from interest and dividend payments. 

Profit Snapshot: +$40.72

Average cost per share after pare this account: $20.34 (497+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share

FHN has continued paying its dividend pending consummation of the merger. 

Yield at $20.34 this account: 3.34%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release Earnings reports become relevant again when and if the merger falls through. 

Net income = $257M

GAAP E.P.S. = $.45

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.44

Consensus at $.43

NIM: 3.49%, up from 2.41% in the 2021 third quarter

Adjusted Efficiency Ratio = 52.42%

NPL Ratio: .51%, down from .63% 

Charge off ratio: .08% 

L. Pared FHN in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $24.15

See Item # 5.K. above

I had bought only 10 shares in this account as an arbitrage play and those shares have now been sold. 

Remaining shares this account: 

Price as of 10/19/22 Close

Profit Snapshot: $22.91

Average cost per share this account: $9.6 (20+ shares)

M. Pared FNB in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $12.78 and 5 at $13.47



Sold highest cost shares. The second sale at $13.47 was after the shares popped in response to the third quarter earnings report. 

Quote:  F.N.B. Corp.

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: $43.37

Last DiscussedItem # 4.A. Pared FNB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $12.19 (9/27/22 Post)(reduced AC per share to $7.7, 67+ shares) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.C. Added to FNB-Bought 3 at $7; 5 at $6.47; 10 at $6.81 (6/20/20 Post)Item # 4.B. Added 5 FNB at 8.8; 5 at $8.43; 5 at $7.62; 5 at $6.6 (4/30/20 Post)

New Average cost per share this account: $7.23 (55+ shares)

Remaining Lots this account

Price as of 10/19/22 Close 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share

I quit reinvesting the dividend in this account effective for the 2020 third quarter payment. 

Yield at AC this account: 6.64%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/1/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2021 third quarter. 

GAAP Net Income = $135.5M

GAAP E.P.S. = $.38

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.39, up from $.34.

Consensus at $.363 per Fidelity

Non-GAAP E.P.S. excludes $.01 per share in merger related expenses. 

NIM: 3.19%, up from 2.76%

Efficiency Ratio Non-GAAP: 49.4%, down from 55.43% (down is good)

NPL Ratio: .3%

Charge Off Ratio: .04%

Coverage Ratio: 439.9% (allowance for credit losses to non-performing loans)  

ROE: 9.91%, up from 8.74%

ROTE: 18.43%, up from 16.41%

FNB Realized Gains to Date: $1,687.87

N. Added to EAI in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $22.44; 5 at $21.65


I highlighted the maturity year in red just to emphasize the interest rate risk. 

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of  Entergy Corp. (ETR) 

Investment Category: Income Generation with a First Mortgage Baby Bond, part of the  Exchange Traded Bond category. 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.M. Added to EAI in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $23.66; 5 at $23; 5 at $22.73  (5/19/22 Post) 

SecurityProspectus

First Mortgage attaching to substantially all assets

Par Value = $25 

Coupon: 4.875% 

Issue Optional Redemption: On or after 9/1/21 at par plus accrued and unpaid interest. Interest rate risk is asymmetric in favor of the issuer given the optional call date and the potential maturity date.  

Maturity: 9/1/2066, unless redeemed early at the issuer's option. 

Trades Flat (i.e. whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment)

Interest Paid Quarterly 

Average Cost per share this Account: $23.22 (25 shares)

Yield at AC = 5.25%

The 30 year treasury bond closed at 4.4% yesterday, up from 2.01% as of 1/3/22. 2022 Treasury Yield Curve-U.S. Department of the Treasury. The current yield for EAI at my last purchase price ($21.7) is 5.63%. 

Next Ex Interest Date: 11/29/22

Credit Ratings: A/A2

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.7-Used Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post)Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.73-Used Commission Free Trade  (3/17/19 Post) 

EAI trading profits to date$102.14

Goal: Interest + any profit on the bonds. 

Purchase Restriction this account: Up to 100 shares with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.  

Maximum Position All Accounts: 300 shares.

O. Added to FIW - Bought 1 at $72.74

Quote: First Trust Water ETF Overview

Sponsor's webpage: First Trust Water ETF (FIW)

Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Started FIW as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $77.5; 1 at $75.5 (4/1/21 Post) 

First Trust Water ETF (FIW)-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)

Average cost per share = $75.25 (3 shares)

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate

Last 4 Dividends: $.4846

Last ex dividend: 9/23/22

Holdings Weighted at >2% as of 10/21:

P. Added to UL in Fidelity Taxable Account- Bought 1 at $43.03:

Quote: Unilever PLC ADR

The ordinary shares trade in London and are priced in British Pence. Unilever PLC (U.K.: London)British Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe Part of the weakness in the USD priced ADR is the decline in British Pound's value when converted into USDs.  

ADR Ratio: 1 for 1

All brands | Unilever global company website

Investors-Unilever

Completion of Unilever’s Unification | Unilever (As a result, the EURO priced ADR UN no longer exists. I have in the past owned UN)

Last Substantive Buy Discussion:  Item #2.I. Added to UL in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 2 at $42.55  (6/9/22 Post) 

Average cost per share this account: $51.49 (32+ shares)

Dividends: Paid quarterly. The USD rate will depend on currency conversions. The USD dividend has trended down starting in 2020 even though the dividend rate in British Pence has remained the same.  

Unilever PLC Common Stock (UL) Dividend History | Nasdaq  

Last 4 Dividend Payments in USDs: $1.8746

Yield at AC Using $1.87 = 3.63%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/4/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): Q2 2022 Results Announcement.pdf 

Results are being negatively impacted by input cost inflation. 

Free cash flow in the first six months was €2.2B, down €2.4B in the 2021 first half. 

Earnings increased 1% with a 4.9% favorable currency impact.  

Purchase Restriction: 1 or 2 share lots, with each subsequent purchase required to reduce my average cost per share, switching to 5 share lots at below $40. 

Maximum position all accounts: 200 shares

Q. Added to BK -Bought 1 at $39.21; 1 at $38.17; 1 at $37.73





Quote: Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

BK SEC Filings

BK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BK Reuters Profile

Last DiscussedItem # 3.C. Restarted BK in Schwab Account -Bought 5 at $43.05 (7/27/22 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post. 

Last EliminationItem # 2.A. Eliminated BK- Sold 4 at $51.87 in Fidelity Account; 10 at $51.63 in Vanguard Account; and 5 at $51.75 in Schwab Account (8/27/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $310.97)

Average cost per share = $41.3 (8 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share ($1.48 annually), last raised from $.34 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. 

BK Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at AC = 3.5835%

Next Ex Dividend: 10/26/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.39

Adjusted E.P.S. = $1.21, up from $1.09 in the 2021 third quarter.  

Adjusted Net Income = $983M

GAAP included a $.81 per share charge, "primarily related to impairment of goodwill associated with the Investment Management reporting unit, which was driven by lower market values and a higher discount rate". Other items were severance costs, litigation reserves and gains on "disposals". 

Total Revenues = $4.3B, up 6%

Asset Under Management: $1.8T, decreased 23% primarily "market impact". This will be a common issue for asset managers who earn fees based on asset values given the declines in stock and bonds. Investment and wealth management revenue decreased by 16%. 

The Security Services unit increased revenue by 13%

Net interest revenue increased by 44%, "primarily reflecting higher interest rates". 

The Market and Wealth Services unit increased revenues by 17%. 

Key Drivers for that segment: 

This segment had been hurt by fee waivers on money market funds as shown in this table: 

$22M negative impact in the 2022 third quarter, down from -$262M in the 2021 third quarter. 

R. Added 1 AOD at $7.07



Quote: abrdn Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview 

AOD SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Semiannual Shareholder Report for the period ending 4/30/22 

Leveraged: Lightly at 4.19% as of 10/17/22 using a line of credit

Average Cost per share: $8.01 (73 shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.0575 per share ($.69 annually)

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at New AC = 8.61%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 10/21/22 (owned all as of)

Data Date of 10/10/22 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.2

Closing Market Price: $7.09

Discount: -13.54%

Sourced: AOD- CEF Connect 

S. Added to OPI - Bought 1 at $12.35-Schwab Taxable Account

Quote: Office Properties Income Trust  (OPI)

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 (debt discussed starting at page 34). OPI has a relatively insignificant amount of mortgage debt ($83.018M on two properties) Most of its debt is in SU bonds that mature between 2024-2050 and borrowings of $230M as of 6/30/22 under its credit facility. For now, the SU bonds have a nice cushion of protection due to their superior claim to assets. 

OPI is a national REIT focused on owning and leasing office properties primarily to single tenants and those with high credit quality characteristics. As of June 30, 2022, approximately 63% of OPI's revenues were from investment grade rated tenants. OPI owned and leased more than 170 properties as of June 30, 2022, with approximately 22.5 million square feet located in 32 states and Washington, D.C. . . . OPI is managed by The RMR Group (Nasdaq: RMR), a leading U.S. alternative asset management company with more than $37 billion in assets under management as of June 30, 2022."

Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22 

A Select Income SU bond,  maturing in less than 2 years, which is now an OPI obligation, is currently trading near a 10% YTM. 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 One maturing on 2/1/2025 is trading near a 12% YTM. Bond Detail The Bond Ghouls are expressing some skepticism on OPI's survival to pay off that debt. 

If those yields are still around when OPI SU debt has to be refinanced, then other alternatives need to be pursued, including some combination of more mortgage debt, asset sales and a significant dividend cut. 

Refinancing the 2024 SU bond at 10%+ or the 2025 SU at 12% for 3 years are not a viable options. 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.D. Added to OPI in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 2 at $16, 3 at $15.03; 1 at $14.49; 4 at $14.15; 1 at $13.67 (10/4/22 Post) 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 3. Added 5 OPI at $18.6; 5 at $18.24 (8/30/22) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. 

When discussing this Office REIT, I have expressed an opinion that it is deservedly hated by investors who count and that is confirmed by a long term price chart. Office Properties Income Trust (OPI) Interactive Stock Chart - Yahoo Finance That chart screams incompetence with a megaphone. 

And, investors have turned very negative recently on all Office REITs including the ones that are internally managed by competent people. 

One major concern is that the work from home trend will lead to a non-temporary glut in office space, resulting in office vacancies and rent concessions on renewals, as cost pressures including financing and maintenance costs increase significantly. Just a bad mix for owners. 

The question is whether I can harvest the dividend and escape at some point with any profit on the shares before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis.  

Average cost per share$17.51  (32 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.55 per share.  

Yield at AC = 12.56%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/21/22 (owned all as of)

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

24 comments:

  1. First Horizon Corp (FHN)
    $24.34 +$0.14 +0.56%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fhn?mod=search_symbol

    I went ahead and sold the 450 FHN shares that I bought as an arbitrage play this morning at $24.33, realizing a short term gain of $1,261.77 and reducing my average cost per share in that account to $8.97 (47+ shares).

    This year has been so difficult to realize trading gains that I decided that it was not worth the risk to me holding that 450 share arbitrage shares when the price was close to the $25 per share buyout out (possibly more if the acquisition is delayed past 11/27/22 as previously explained)

    U.S. regulatory approval of FHN's acquisition by TD has not yet been received, but the current price indicates an opinion that will probably be approved.

    I used part of the proceeds to buy 2 more FHN 3.55% SU bonds maturing on 5/26/23.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The stock market is dancing to the interest rate tune.

    Interest rates fell today with the ten year treasury declining 15 basis points to 4.1%. I did not see anything that would explain that move and would simply attribute it to profit taking after a big run up.

    Tomorrow will likely be a difficult one for the Nasdaq since the Stock Jocks do not like earnings reports released after the close by Google and Microsoft.

    Microsoft Corp.
    After Hours: $233.94 -$16.72 -6.67%
    Last Updated: Oct 25, 2022 at 7:56 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/msft?mod=search_symbol

    Google
    After Hours
    $97.92 -7.01 -6.68%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/goog?mod=search_symbol

    Those reports will likely pressure stocks like AMZN and META

    ReplyDelete
  3. Another troubling sign for the economy is the downbeat 4th quarter forecast made by TXN, a company with over 100,000 customers over a broad range of industries.

    The CEO said it was seeing rising order cancellations and deteriorating order rates in industrial sectors except for automobiles.

    The forecasted revenue for the 4th quarter between $4.4B - $4.8B vs. the consensus at $4.94B.

    Third quarter E.P.S. was reported at $2.47 with the consensus at $2.39.

    SEC Filed Press Release:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747622000047/q32022txnex99-er1.htm

    ReplyDelete
  4. I referenced in this post the average 30 year mortgage rate for September was 6.11% according to Freddie Mac, up from 5.22% in August.

    I did not check until today the average rate for the week ending 10/20/22 which was 6.94% for the 40 year mortgage +.9 point.

    https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

    This rapid rise is creating a major headwind for new home sales, which the Census Bureau reported today were down 17.6% in September 2022 compared to September 2021.

    META is collapsing in after hours trading based on an awful earnings report and forward guidance.

    Meta Platforms Inc.
    $105.14 -$24.69 -19.02%
    After Hours Volume: 37.5M
    Last Updated: Oct 26, 2022 at 7:17 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/meta?mod=search_symbol

    The 10 year treasury yield fell 6 basis points to close at 4.04% according to the Treasury, down from 4.25% as of last Monday. The yield is slipping more in after hours trading and is currently near 4%.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

    I will be participating in tomorrow's 2 month treasury bill auction and the 3 month T Bill auction next Monday. I will probably participate in the 1 year T Bill auction on Tuesday 11/1.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For the dynamics... is it....
      Poor earnings means the market is more concerned about recession. During recession slowdowns, bond rates come down. So that's why poor earnings on Meta/FB and Google would cause yields to go down?

      Also in general if bond market finds reasons to move yields down, the stock market sees that as a worry signal by the bond market, so in turn stocks come down?

      The patterns are happening consistently. But I haven't a good idea of the dynamic of why they happen.

      I will continue to regret my 2 FB stock buys that I didn't sell on the next day pop.

      Delete
    2. Land: There is a strong suspicion that the FED will not continue raising the FF rate when the economic data clearly points to a recession. The natural and historical response to recessionary conditions is to lower rates.

      The yield curve is signaling that a recession is on the horizon, but the timing is still incapable of being known.

      The market is currently bifurcated into value stocks going up and growth stocks going down.

      Vanguard Value ETF
      $135.92 +$0.66 +0.48%
      Last Updated: Oct 27, 2022 at 3:20 p.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv?mod=search_symbol

      Vanguard Growth ETF
      $219.77 -$2.66 -1.20%
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vug?mod=search_symbol

      Delete
    3. Oh, now I get what you're doing. If a recession hits, rates will (historically) go down. So 1-2 year bonds will continue current yields during an upcoming recession or slowdown even if not at recession levels.

      I'd agree with guesses that Fed will stop raising rates even if inflation continues if a recession slow down happens. (Though seems like raising should be based on inflation and not recession factors, to get things back to not inverted.)

      Recessions in the past have been after the inversion ended, even if only a couple months after. Of course there's different factors this time, so may be different this time.

      Delete
  5. There is a typo in my prior comment. I was referring to the 30 year mortgage rate for the W/E 10/20/22. There is no 40 year.

    I tried to log onto Treasury Direct a few times today and the site is down.

    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/10/26/treasurydirect-outages-reported-as-i-bond-deadline-nears/

    I was going to buy more IBonds but apparently that is not going to happen before the deadline to receive the 9.62% rate for 6 months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I maxed ibond purchases through Treasury Direct with my $10k buy earlier this year. I used form 8888 for my tax refund distribution to buy the allowed $5k more.

      I'd pre-paid an additional $5k estimated tax, so I'd have $5k in my refund for the bond.

      It's a take your chances process. My refund was in my bank account on 10-25, so good chance my ibond buy arrived at treasury in time for current rate. But if they were slower to process, maybe not. There's no communication sent, until the paper bond arrives 3 weeks later. Then there's some process to upload it to the Treasury Direct account. How to take a straight line and make it twisty.

      The next semi-annual ibond rate may be still near the current rate. So not a bad deal.

      Ibonds don't look very useful during normal rate and inflation conditions. Just especially good now because of the rate/inflation inversion.

      Delete
  6. I have no more FHN. Never bought enough. I'll know better next opportunity. But seems like a good move to get out now. A bird in the hand.

    ---

    The market wasn't that fussy about the poor Google and MS earnings. At least not at first. But it seems like an important poor sign to me.
    ----

    Finally bought new cell phone (delivery soon). Sale price disappeared as I decided, so had to find a price match for Best Buy so signing on and buying turned into a process . $350 is plenty for a cell phone. I can't see $450. At least not an Apple phone. For my Dad's house that doesn't get any cell service, I have to stick with the phones that work completely on wifi. Apples don't. It's samsung, moto & google's pixels.





    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: There may be a significant big money shift ongoing out of the big tech names to value and dividend paying stocks. Yesterday was a good day for me on a total portfolio basis.

      The recent decline in interest rates has helped the bond substitute stock sectors some.

      The first estimate for third quarter real GDP was better than expected at 2.6%.

      https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2022-advance-estimate

      Delete
    2. Typo: I meant I don't see $450 *unless* it's an Apple (since apples last longer/work better). The cell on sale is $350 but when the sale ended, jumped to $450.

      Delete
  7. Noticed a fed bond auction for 1-3 mos open now. I thought it was auctioning today but it's tomorrow. Bought 3 for my Roth, 2 for Ameritrade reg funds.

    About 3.6% estimate. So that's better than vanguard's 2.93% in settlement account.

    Vang's pages are much better than Ameritrades. For one, Amer doesn't include any price estimate.

    Bought in Roth because my reasoning not to was faulty. Normally tax free means lower yields & makes sense to buy in a taxable account, and buy taxable in a Roth. But right now these rates are higher than nearly any 1-3mo bond that could be found. Rates aren't priced rationally.

    By comparison First Foundation is at 3.1% (up to 5 million).

    Closing HMBradley account. They suddenly switched partner banks. Always had a red flag feeling. I believe wheels are falling off that bus. Also had trouble with security since I don't have a cell to verify with. Discovered the head of security is clueless. The CEO founder posts on Discord. He was burning money to attract clients and now things he'll retain by adding value instead of rates. Moving on!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The 1 and 2 month treasury bill auctions are currently open for purchases, but there will be an early morning cutoff for orders since the auctions are today. I will generally place orders at least 1 day prior to the cutoff time.

      The 3 and 6 month bills will be auctioned on Monday. Brokers will not take orders now. I will generally enter orders for those bills on Saturday or Sunday.

      The yield curve is so inverted now that the highest treasury yield, as of yesterday, was the 1 year T Bill at 4.54%, 50 basis points higher than the 10 year. The 3 and 6 month bills were then at 4.11% and 4.47% So you are not being paid to go out further than 1 year. The only reason for doing so is to lock in yields for a longer period as a hedge against another abrupt decline in rates.

      Investment grade corporate bonds maturing in 1 to 2 years can be purchased with 5% or higher yields.

      Some of those are offered in broker sponsored corporate notes program, though Fidelity is the only one that regularly has those offerings. Those bonds are sold at par value, with no accrued interest, as part of an initial offering. I bought 1 issued by Jefferies yesterday that has a 5% coupon, matures in October 2023 and pays semiannually. I have an order in for another that has a 5.25% coupon from Bank of Nova Scotia, pays quarterly interest and matures in 2 years.

      Delete
  8. Normally I don't buy Fed bonds and look for better rates. But now they're the best for very short range, and 1-2 years. Minus the hunted for corp bonds you're finding.

    It's so easy :).

    At least for these (there's a bunch of types mentioned on the vang small print I don't understand yet.)

    I have to check the rollover feature on the broker sites

    ReplyDelete
  9. My TXN went negative - when it had been a high flyer. Same with Garmin. They pay divs so I"m ignoring that.

    The LEI doesn't surprise. There's a lot of focus on concurrent and trailing factors. But the LEI matches my impression and it's good to have data to look at instead of my vague impression.

    Normally earnings beat. Something like 75% do (FG quotes that point a lot). Yet this round nearly everything I own seems to be in estimated range. I'd put weight on that if it's accurate.

    By this site if accurate it'd be only a small reduction to 70% beat.
    https://www.streetinsider.com/ec_beat.php

    While looking for that, this site has this bit:

    "Earnings Growth: For Q3 2022, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 1.5%. If 1.5% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). "

    https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_102122A.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  10. The 56 day T Bill was auctioned today at a 3.896% investment rate (coupon equivalent) I bought 10K.

    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/R_20221027_1.pdf

    The Treasury Direct site is suffering intermittent outages due to investor demand for IBond purchases. I was able to buy more earlier today, as in around 6:00 A.M. CDT.

    This will be the last 2 month T Bill auction where the interest will be taxable in 2022.

    The treasury has started to auction 4 month T Bills on a weekly basis, with yesterday being the last one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I finally figure out the calculations.

      100 - 99.4058 paid = 0.5942 interest gained

      0.5942 gain / 99.4058 paid = 0.0059775
      x 100 = 0.59775 %

      APY for year (365 days) / 8 weeks (56 days)
      = multiplication factor of 6.517857 to get from interest paid to APY

      0.59775 % interest rate * 6.517857 factor for 1 year =
      3.896049% is the investment rate.

      I was missing the APY multiplication factor before and using 2mos x 6 = 1 year.

      =====
      3.9% is a nice hike over 3.1-3.2 in higher yielding bank accounts!

      Delete
  11. The Stock Jocks were not happy that META intends to continue building its money incineration machine known as the Metaverse.

    Meta Platforms Inc.
    $97.94 -$31.88 -24.56%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/meta?mod=home-page

    With about 2.28B in shares outstanding, that decline is something to behold and rivals bitcoin in its money incineration.

    Josh Brown said he bought META today based on a hunch that Zuckerberg would not burn down his own house down. I do not share that faith so I was unable to average down by buying 1 more share, bringing my total to 4.

    Eventually, the Metaverse expenditures may prove to be worthwhile, even prescient, but that day may never come and, if it does, it is unlikely to occur within a time frame acceptable to most META shareholders.

    Amazon is getting clobbered in after hours trading based on its earnings report.

    "Amazon stock sinks 16% on weak fourth-quarter guidance"
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2022.html

    Amazon.com Inc.
    $96.18 -$14.61 -13.17%
    Last Updated: Oct 27, 2022 at 6:06 p.m. EDT
    SHARES OUTSTANDING = 10.19B
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amzn?mod=search_symbol

    It is hard to see how value stocks can weather this storm in the 4 letter symbol mega stocks with huge weightings in the S&P 500.

    Gilead, which I own, is responding favorably so far to its earnings report:

    Gilead Sciences Inc.
    After Hours: $72.50 +$ 2.30 +3.28%

    The ten year treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 3.96%.

    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202210

    The yield is currently near 3.92% in late trading, probably in response to Amazon's report.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Josh Brown tends to have a good sense. I agree, Zuckerberg won't burn his house down. I don't agree that Zuckerberg will know how not to. He could have easily avoided the firestorm that started with the 2016 Russian ads.

      Does anyone know what Metaverse is aiming to produce? The question is less when Metaverse will pay off, but when will investors think it will, and be willing to pay to push up to a high P/E. But the market's "meta" environment isn't looking good. So I'll wait on riskier buys. My 2 drowning shares will have to do.

      Gilead's still in that trading range... how many years now? It looks like a good deal to trade it up and down.

      I got a package from the lymphoma society. Beigene is a sponsor. They're very excited about a bunch of pipeline new meds in research. They fit missing niches so I was going to look at some point to see how they're doing. Zanabrutinib which is theirs and the 3rd gen BTK is gaining use in lymphomas beyond the original targeted conditions, which adds interest too.

      Delete
    2. Land:
      Gilead (GILD)
      $75.68 +$5.48 +7.81%
      Last Updated: Oct 28, 2022 at 9:57 a.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gild?mod=search_symbol

      I have not discussed GILD much but I did start to buy 1 and 2 share lots after the price was decimated as a bond substitute.

      While the recent trading range over the past 3 year is mostly in the $60 to $75 range, with dips below $60 which I bought, the stock was trading near $118 in mid-2015.

      The general idea for stocks characterized as bond substitutes is to harvest the dividends and to sell at whatever profit is available. Victory is defined as a 2% or higher annualized total return in excess of the dividend payments. I may have close to 100 stocks so characterized. The characterization is a definition of a goal than one about the safety of the dividend. The dividend will generally be over 4%.

      I did profitably sell my highest cost 2+ GILD shares in my Fidelity account at the open today. Those shares were slightly in negative territory at yesterday's close. My AC per share was reduced from $63.57 to $61.66 (10 shares in that account) The dividend yield is now at 4.74%.

      I will look around later to see what I own in other accounts where I may trim some.

      Delete
    3. I'd done one round trip on GILD, though not on purpose as a bond substitute. Sold in the $70s what I'd bought lower because I didn't see it moving up much.

      Just sold 10 of 40 SHEL in my Roth at 56.07. Locks in $100 loss in share price but an annual 2.2% gain since 2014 when including Divs.

      I've wanted to get out of SHEL or in at a much lower AC than 66.88. I didn't want to risk getting stuck with even more by buying on dips.

      Missed the earlier pop of upper $56's and it will probably climb more on the good earnings report. But it's Friday.

      Have much more TTE Total at AC 61.83 for 160. Like to get partially out, if it gets near $56-58. But more comfortable with it's track record. So I'll wait. Foreign and US$ is high. So it should boost value when US$ comes down rather than reduce it?

      Also have 65 CVX at AC $118 at 52.5% gain since 2014. So not stellar, but Chevron seems to do more to move into alternative energy & floats higher as a result. Has 3.19% yield currently. So was planning on these as long term holds even if the profit on stock shares comes down some.
      As I write, I'm re-thinking, maybe time to take some profits in this? Not sell all but lock in some.

      Delete
    4. LAZ, MMM, LMT, had nice climbs today 2-3+%.

      INTC popped > 10%. I'm down 44% on 16 shares after today. But maybe it'd be turn around point for better manufacturing results. And market favor.

      Several cell makers turned to in house chips. I got a Samsung A53, which is using their own chip for the 1st time (and it's a downgrade in speed). Google's pixels are also recently using Tensor in house developed chips. They're farming out the manufacturing (both I think are.)

      Delete
  12. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/11/aqn-codipra-cpf-dei-eprt-feny-fhn-flsw.html

    ReplyDelete