ADX, CCNEP, ENB, FHB, FINX, GRX, KHC, MAPTX, NWH.UN:CA, PEO, PNNT, QYLD, RYLD

Economy: 

December CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M12 Results

CPI -.1%, seasonally adjusted, compared to November. 

Non-seasonally adjusted:

CPI Y-O-Y:  +6.5%, down from 7.1% in November

Core CPI Y-O-Y: +5.7%, down from 6% in November

My current forecast is that the FED will raise the FF range by .25% on 2/1/23 and another .25% on 3/22/23 which will take the range up from the current 4.25% to 4.5% to 4.75%-5%. 

I do not anticipate a rate cut in 2023 which is the current probable forecast for December 2023. CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group 

I view it more likely that there will be another .25% hike to a 5%-5.25 range rather than a .25% cut from the currently forecasted peak range of 4.75% to 5%. While inflation will continue to trend down in 2023, I doubt that the inflation rate will fall enough to satisfy the FED that its job is done, provided the economy is not in a recession which would terminate the rate hiking mode.   

Two 2023 tailwinds for consumer spending are increased disposable income from risk free savings and the 8.7% increase in social security payments occurring when price inflation for essential expenditures is cooling.   

Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Information | SSA

As of 11/30/22, there were 70.579M SS beneficiaries. Monthly Statistical Snapshot, November 2022

Based on the FED's H.6 Release (Table 3), I would roughly estimate that 2023 will bring in more than $500B more in before tax adjusted household interest income compared to 2021.  

Another likely economic tailwind  for 2023 is a recovery in new automobile sales as problems with part shortages are remedied and pent up demand comes back. New car supply 'improving fast' in 2023 as some manufacturers begin increasing targets – Car Dealer Magazine; U.S. new vehicle sales to fall in December as high prices deter buyers - report | Reuters (noting a forecast for a 6% increase in 2023 after a small decline last year); The Chip Shortage May Be Ending, and Crazy Car Prices Should Go With It 

Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks - St. Louis Fed

Another possible tailwind is that lower interest rate will revive new home sales, triggering a meaningful increase in housing starts. 

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units- St. Louis Fed

New One Family Houses Sold: United States-St. Louis Fed:

Mortgage Rates Decline | Freddie Mac (1/12/2023)

1 Year Mortgage Rate Trends

The 2023 surprise may end up being the economy doing much better than currently expected, provided inflation and mortgage rates continue to trend down.

+++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:  

I did not purchase any treasury bills at auction last week. I am participating in the 3 month T Bill auction tomorrow. 

Treasury Note Secondary Market Purchase: +$1,000 par value

Corporate Bonds: +$6,000 in principal amount

Canadian REIT: +C$964 (yield at 8.31%)

Common Stocks: +$58.5/ 5 shares of PNNT

Stock CEFs: -$3,690.32

(consisting of $4,015.43 in proceeds minus $325.11 in 2 purchases)

Stock ETFs: +$333.9

Stock Mutual Funds: +$50

Equity Preferred Stock: -$260

Net Common Stock and Stock Fund Reduction: -$3,306.42

Realized Gains Stocks and Stock Funds: +$1,048.8

+++++

Putin and His Russian Orcs: 

Over the weekend, Russian Orcs deliberately destroyed an apartment building in Dnipro, murdering at least 40 civilians including 6 children. Russia's attempt to murder civilians in that apartment complex also injured at least 75 including 16 children. Death toll rises in Russian strike on Dnipro, Ukraine building; Rescue hopes fade after Russian strike in Dnipro Video and pictures of the destroyed apartment complex prove that that it suffered a direct hit from a Russian missile, probably the Kh-22 which can carry a nuclear payload. Ukraine Identifies Russian Unit Responsible for Kh-22 Missile Hit on Dnipro (Russia's 52nd Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment.) This kind of missile hits where it is aimed, so there is no question that the Orcs committed yet another war crime with this attack. The Orcs sent a message with that missile that can fly at Mach 3+ speed.  

Putin's missile attacks on Dnipro are a 'callous warning' to Ukraine - YouTube

The Orc spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, suggested the Ukrainians destroyed the apartment building. Peskov claimed that the Orcs do not target residential structures, something that Russia has done almost on a daily basis since invading Ukraine. No shame is felt by the Orcs in denying what it is obvious and proven beyond any doubt.  

Ukrainian Apartment Block in Dnipro Flattened in Russian Missile Attack-YouTube; Rescuers search for survivors after deadly Russian strike on Dnipro apartment block

Dnipro is one of the cities the Orcs want to liberate and then impose Russia's version of "freedom" on the civilians, assuming any survive the Orcs effort to liberate them. 

Russian TV Hears Call To Prepare Children To Fight: 'This Is World War III'

"Cherry On the Cake" | Wagner Chief Reveals Why Russia Is Desperate To Capture Ukraine's Bakhmut - YouTube  The real reason IMO is economic. Wagner's owner wants to profit from the areas salt and gypsum mines. U.S. thinks Putin ally Prigozhin wants control of salt, gypsum from mines near Bakhmut | Reuters 

Edward Lucas - Is Putin the Architect of his own Destruction - or does West Bear Some of the Blame? - YouTube

Ukraine war: Russia’s fossil fuel earnings fall in December (oil price caps cost Russia an estimated $171.8M per day) 

Retired US general calls Putin's battlefield change a 'bizarre move' - YouTube Contains before and after satellite images that show how Russia has liberated the small Ukrainian town of Soledar, a town of little strategic value, by destroying every building, including homes and schools. 

As Russians Steal Ukraine’s Art, They Attack Its Identity, Too - The New York Times Experts are calling Russian theft of art to be the biggest heist since the Nazis in WWII. No one should be surprised that the Russians rival the Nazis in theft since they share so many traits with them. 

Former Russian president says Japanese leader should disembowel himself - The Washington Post Apparently the former President of Orc Land is trying to win friends in Japan with that remark. What set Medvedev off in his latest rant was a joint statement made by Japan's PM and President Biden that  “any use of a nuclear weapon by Russia in Ukraine would be an act of hostility against humanity and unjustifiable in any way.” 

DNIPRO missile attack, russian crimes and some emotions. Vlog 275: War in Ukraine - YouTube

+++

Trump and His Party: 

Trump Organization sentenced to maximum fine following tax fraud conviction - ABC News; 

House Republicans vote to cut IRS budget by $71B - The Washington Post 

The GOP wants to deny the IRS resources to catch tax cheats among their largest billionaire donors. It will not be sold to mom and pop republicans in that way, of course. Instead, the republicans will claim that they are merely protecting honest mom and pop republicans from IRS harassment notwithstanding them being honest taxpayers. 

Of the $80B funded for the IRS last year, which is spread over 10 years, $35B was targeted for updating aged computer equipment and to improve taxpayer services, while  $45B was for improving enforcement. The House republican vote to slash $71B was just one of the first votes that can easily be characterized as extremely irresponsible but that is to be expected and is easily predictable. There will be a lot more coming. IRS Funding Repeal Could Cost Over $100 Billion, Encourage Tax Cheating | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget The House republicans are neither conservative nor responsible, but mere mini Trump demagogues pandering to the GOP base and the GOP's billionaire donors. 

I am expecting the republicans in the House to cause a U.S. default, or at a minimum another government shutdown, and then blame the democrats. Jan. 19 debt limit deadline looms; House GOP prepares contingency plan - The Washington Post (GOP wants to pass legislation that would  prioritize certain government payments while allowing others to lapse. The plan is to prioritize payments on the debt, SS and Medicare benefits, the military and veterans benefit while cutting off just about everything else including Medicaid, food safety inspections, border and air traffic control and thousands of other federal programs.) 

The recently passed debt limit increase will be exceeded next week, requiring the Treasury to resort to extraordinary measures, as it has done in the past, to avoid a U.S. debt default. Debt Limit Letter to Congress 1/13/2022 Without new legislation increasing the limit, the Treasury will run out of options sometime in the summer. U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, Yellen warns Congress

Once again, the republicans will hold hostage increasing the U.S. debt limit unless the democrats agree to republican policy objectives that are anathema to them. The current House republicans are far more irresponsible and extreme than the ones who shut down the government when the democrats refused to repeal Obamacare. 

Trump denied E. Jean Carroll rape claim in testimony, Falsely Claims that "she loved it" (Trump: "She said it was very sexy to be raped"); Unsealed Trump deposition falsely accuses E. Jean Carroll of saying she enjoys rape - The Washington Post Donald bragged in a video of being able to grab women's genitals without permission. Trump on Hot Mic: 'When You're a Star ... You Can Do Anything' to Women (Trump: "“I’m automatically attracted to beautiful women — I just start kissing them, it’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy.”) Trump remains the leader of the GOP.

McCarthy says he will look at expunging Trump impeachment | The Hill

These are the texts GOP strategist sent about an alleged sexual assault by Matt Schlapp - YouTube

The Mysterious Campaign Fund That Raised Big Money for George Santos - The New York Times  The facts disclosed in this article point to campaign law violations IMO: (1) Failure to register a PAC with the FEC; (2) Failure to disclose donors; and (3) control over PAC by campaign. 

George Santos: Harbor City called him a 'perfect fit.' The SEC called the company a fraud. - The Washington Post; SEC Complaint: Harbor City Capital Corp., Harbor City Ventures, LLC, HCCF-1 LLC, HCCF-2 LLC, HCCF-3 LLC, HCCF-4 LLC, HCCF-5 LLC, Harbor City Digital Ventures, Inc., HCC Media Funding, LLC, Jonathan P. Maroney

Santos’s Lies Were Known to Some Well-Connected Republicans - The New York Times

George Santos: New details link New York congressman to Andrew Intrater, cousin of sanctioned Russian oligarch - The Washington Post

+++

1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22:

Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview (PEO) - Unleveraged CEF

PEO is one of the CEFs that was formed prior to the 1929 stock market crash and managed to survive. The leveraged CEFs did not last long.  

Sponsor's website: Adams Funds

PEO-CEF Connect 

PEO SEC Filings 

Proceeds: $4,015.43

Profit Snapshot: +$853.35

I took the last dividend payment in cash: 

$242.76

The year end dividend will include short and long term capital gains. The regular quarterly dividend is $.10 per share. 

Top 10 Holdings As of 9/30/22:  

Number of Holdings as of 9/30/22: 58

Holdings as of 9/30/22:  SEC Filing 

2. Corporate Bonds: $6,000 in principal amount 

A. Bought 2 Oneok 4.9% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.17: 

Issuer: ONEOK Inc.  (OKE) 

I own a few common shares.  The largest position is in my Schwab Account:

Snapshot as of 1/13/23 close

I quit reinvesting the dividend effective with the 2021 first quarter payment. 

OKE SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/2022 

The bond was originally issue by Oneok Partners which was acquired by Oneok.  

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB- 

YTM at Total Cost = 5.304%

Current Yield at TC = 4.94%

Last Bond Offering (11/22): $750M of 6.1% SU notes maturing on 11/15/32; Bond Detail 

B. Bought 2 Williams 3.9% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.694: 

Issuer: Williams Cos. (WMB)

I own the common stock in several accounts. The largest position is in my Schwab account: 

114+ shares/Snapshot as of 1/13/23 close

This bond was originally issued by Williams Partners L.P. which was acquired by Williams. 

WMB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

WMB SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/22 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.118%

Current Yield at TC = 3.99% 

I now own 4 bonds. 

C. Bought 2 Cytec 3.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/25 at a Total Cost of 96.425: 

Issuer: Cytec was acquired by the Belgium based company Solvay. 

Solvay third quarter and nine months 2022 results | Solvay

Website: Solvay | A Global Leader in Materials, Solutions and Chemicals

Stock Quote: Solvay S.A. Stock Quote (Belgium: Euronext Brussels) 

Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.62%

Current Yield at TC = 4.0964%

3. Canadian REITs: 

A. Added 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$9.64 (C$1 IB Commission): 

Quote: NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (NWH-UN.TO) 

NWH-UN.TO Historical Prices

Website: Home

The REIT owns hospitals, medical office buildings, life science buildings and other healthcare facilities: 

The REIT earns management fees from third parties: 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Properties 

1 Year Chart: Intraday on 1/6/23

I would attribute the recent price slide to concerns that this Canadian REIT has grown too fast through acquisitions and to the rise in interest rates eating into FFO and AFFO. The last earnings report, discussed below, threw gasoline on those concerns.  

Average cost per share: C$9.63 (700 units)

Dividend: Monthly at C$.06667 per unit (C$.80 annually) 

Yield at C$9.63 = 8.31%

Last Discussed: Item # 1. Eliminated NWHUF - Sold 45 at US$10.76 and 5 at US$10.21 (9/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = US$193.47). NWHUF is the symbol for U.S.D. priced units that trade on the U.S. Grey Market. Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust  (U.S.: OTC) Those shares now trade near US$7. I have quit trading U.S. Grey Market listed foreign stocks. The only broker that I used for those trades was Schwab who started charging commission for trades. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22):  Q3 2022 - MD&A  

FFO and AFFO per share at C$.15, down from C$.21 in the 2021 third quarter.

"During the quarter, revenue and NOI grew 21.2% and 19.9%, respectively on a YOY basis. However, as a result of several non-recurring items and lower transactional volumes, management fees decreased during the quarter while increasing interest expense coupled with the REIT's temporarily elevated leverage level resulted in AFFO per unit decreasing to $0.151. With high visibility into near-term transactional activity which is expected to result in quarterly management fee income reverting to historic levels and adding ~$0.02/unit on a run-rate basis, the REIT expects earnings to be in-line with previous quarters when combined with the $0.04/unit annualized impact of balance sheet initiatives completed post quarter"

Expansion risks: Those risks are being reduced through the formation of joint ventures.  NWH Announces the Formation of New UK JV 

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 350 of 400 NWHUF at US$10.42 (8/6/21 Post)(profit US$965.98); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 NWHUF at US$8.79  (8/21/17 Post)(profit snapshot = US$106.98); Item # 1. A. Sold 1000 NWH.UN:CA at  C$10.68 (7/31/17)(profit snapshot = US$606.31)

NWH.UN:CA and NWHUF Realized Gains to Date: US$1,872,74

4. Small Ball Purchases: 

A. Added 15 ADX at  $14.76-Schwab Taxable Account: 

Quote: ADX | Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF

ADX SEC Filings 

Management: Internal

Leveraged: No

Sponsor's website: Adams Funds

SEC Filing - Holdings as of 9/30/22 (value then at $2.018+B with the cost at $1.479+B)

SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/22 

Average cost per share this account: $15.39 (30 shares)

Dividends: Quarterly at $.05 per share for the first 3 quarters + a year end short and long term capital gains distributions and remaining dividend sourced income. 

2022 Total at $1.07 per share

2021 Total at $2.98

I am not reinvesting the dividend in this account. 

Data Date of 1/10/23 Purchase: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $17.58

Closing Market Price: $14.76

Discount: -16.04%

Sourced:  (Click "Pricing Information" tab)   

Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/22: 

One of the holdings is PEO discussed in Item # 1 above.  PEO and ADX share offices and personnel and have been connected since both were formed just prior to the 1929 crash.   

I started to trade ADX in 1984. 

Realized Gains 2008 to Date (no snapshots of prior gains): $3,172.46  

Last Discussed: Item #4.F. Added 5 ADX in Schwab Account at $14.65 (10/11/22 Post)(contains snapshot of some realized gains starting in 2014) 

The largest annual realized gain starting in 2008 was $1,983.24 in 2015: 

B. Added 10 GRX at $10.38 - Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Quote: Gabelli Healthcare & Wellness Trust Overview - Leveraged Stock CEF

Sponsor's website: Healthcare and Wellness Rx Trust 

SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Shareholder Semiannual Report for the the period ending 6/30/22 

SEC Filing Holdings as of 9/30/22 

Last Discussed: Item # 5.G. Added to GRX in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $9.9  (11/20/22 Post) 

Leveraged: Yes, near 28% based on last report. 

New AC per share this account: $11.21 (50+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday after add

Dividend: Managed, quarterly currently at $.15 per share. 

I started to reinvest the dividend in this account effective for the last dividend payment.  

Yield at $11.21 AC per share = 5.35%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/8/22

Data Date of 1/13/23 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $12.3

Closing Market Price: $10.35

Discount: -15.85%

Sourced: GRX-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)

Gabelli Health & Wellness (GRX)- Morningstar (currently rated 2 stars)

Gabelli Health & Wellness (GRX) Portfolio | Morningstar

Top 10 Holdings as of 12/29/22: 

I do not currently own any of those stocks. I have owned in the past Nestle, Abbvie and JNJ. 

C. Bought 10 PNNT at $5.85: 

Quote: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) - A BDC

Website: Investors | PennantPark

SEC Filings

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket-Deservedly Hated BDC

Selected Investments - PennantPark

Management: External

Last Discussed: Item # 3.I. Pared PNNT - Sold 10 at $4.05 (12/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot - $7.81). Reduced average cost per share in my Fidelity Account to $2.99. I still own those shares. 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.O. Restarted PNNT-Bought 10 at $3.27 (9/26/20 Post); Item # 1.K. Added 5 PNNT at $3.06; 5 at $2.92 (11/13/20 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at historically variable rates. 

The $.18 per share quarterly rate was paid starting in the 2017 first quarter and continued through the 2020 second quarter payment shown above. 

The rate was then slashed from $.18 to $.12 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment and was then increased slightly in every quarter last year. 

The rise in short term rates triggers higher net investment income for floating rate loans priced at spreads to short term rate like SOFR. 

Prior to that $.18 per share, PNNT paid $.28 for a long time. 

Overall, this dividend history is poor. 

Yield: 11.28%  (assuming 4 payments at $.165 per share) 

If the rate was cut back to $.12 the yield would then be 8.205%. 

Last Ex Dividend: 12/20/22

Net Asset Value per share history: Extremely Poor IMO

9/30/22:    $8.98

Discount to $8.98 at $5.85 = 34.86%

12/31/21:    $10.11  10-Q at page 4

12/31/20:   $8.79   10-Q at page 4

12/31/19    $8.79

06/30/19   $8.74

12/31/18     $9.05

12/31/17     $ 9.1

12/31/16     $ 9.11
12/31/15     $ 9.02
9/30/15      $ 9.82
12/31/14     $10.43
9/20/14      $11.03
12/31/13     $10.8
12/31/12     $10.38
12/31/10     $11.14
9/30/10      $10.69
12/31/09    $11.86
12/31/08    $10.24
12//31/07   $12.07

9/30/07      $12.83

IPO at $15 Prospectus April 2007

10-K for the F/Y ending 9/30/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): 

PennantPark Investment Corporation 

NII per share = $.14 

Core NII per share = $.18 (excludes 4 cents for credit facility amendment costs) 

As of 9/30/22, the PNNT portfolio totalled  "$1,226.3 million and consisted of $631.0 million of first lien secured debt, $129.9 million of second lien secured debt, $141.3 million of subordinated debt (including $88.0 million in PSLF) and $324.1 million of preferred and common equity (including $51.1 million in PSLF). Our interest bearing debt portfolio consisted of 96% variable-rate investments and 4% fixed-rate investments. As of September 30, 2022, we had one portfolio company on non-accrual, representing 1% and zero percent of our overall portfolio on a cost and fair value basis, respectively." 

Reference to PSLF:  PennantPark Senior Loan Fund, LLC, or PSLF, an unconsolidated joint venture 

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 131+ PNNT at $6.6 (1/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.17 NET); Item # 1.B. Sold 50 PNNT at $7.35-Highest Cost Lot (6/7/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $10.44); Sold Roth IRA: 100 PNNT at $9.535 (2/17/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.52); Item # 5 Sold 50 PNNT at $11.92 (12/17/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $71.78)

PNNT Realized Gains to Date: $168.72  

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

The five year annual average total return through 1/13/23 was +8.57%. Total return includes dividend reinvestment. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel Going back to May 1, 2007, shortly after the IPO, the annual average total return was 5.85%, which indicates some dividend value destruction through reinvestment. 

D. Added 3 QYLD at $15.72: 

Quote: Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF Overview

"The Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the same index."

Sponsor's website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF

Expense Ratio: .60%

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation. 

Last Discussed: Item 2.C. Added 1 QYLD at $17.16 (6/22/22 Post) 

Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 2 stars, down from 3 when I last discussed this ETF) The Nasdaq 100 had a tough 2022. 

Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate.

The $.499377 per share dividend, which went ex on 12/31/21, was sourced from short term capital gains.  

E. Added 5 RYLD at $19.21 - Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Quote: Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD): Buy - Write ETF for the Russell 2000 Index. 

Sponsor's website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate

The $.306586 per share dividend, which went ex on 12/31/21, was sourced from short term capital gains. 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 4.C. Added to RYLD - Bought 2 at $19.46  (11/29/22 Post) I have nothing to add here. 

F. Bought 5 FINX at $20.46-Schwab Taxable Account: 

Quote: FINX | Global X FinTech ETF Overview

Sponsor's website: FinTech ETF

Expense Ratio = .68%

My last transaction in this account was to sell 6 shares at $46.9, as reflected in the previous snapshot. Item # 1.J. Eliminated FINX in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 6 at $46.9 (1/23/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.8) 

Top 10 Holdings as of 1/12/23: 

Of those stocks, I currently have a small ball position in FISV which is near breakeven. 

Dividends: Semiannual and irrelevant

FINX – Global X FinTech ETF-Morningstar (currently rated 1 star)

Annual Total Returns (based on price): I would classify this ETF as a trade and has yet to show that a long term hold is worthwhile. 

2022:  -51.79%

2021:  -9.72

2020: +53.96%

2019:  +37.52%

2018:   +.83%

2017:   +49.96%

5 Year Annual Average Total Return = -1.08%

G. Added 1 VOX at $88.39: 

Quote: Vanguard Communication Services ETF Overview 

Sponsor's website: VOX-Vanguard Communication Services ETF | Vanguard

Expense Ratio: .10%

VOX – Vanguard Communication Services ETF- Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)

2022 Total Return: -38.85% 

VOX – Portfolio-Morningstar

Top 10 Holdings as of 11/30/22: 

H. Added $50 MAPTX at $21.49: 

Quote: Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund 

Sponsor's Website: Pacific Tiger Fund-Matthews Asia

Net Expense ratio = 1.03%, gross at 1.06%

MAPTX-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)

10 Year Annual Average Total Return through 1/6/23: +4.93%

5 Year Annual Average Total Return through 1/6/23: -.10%

2022 Total Return: -20.73%

A comparable ETF is iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) which has an average annual ten year total return of +3.06% and 5 years at - 1.09%.

Top Ten Holdings as of 11/30/22: 

This stock sector has been in a long term bear market with intermittent bull rallies of relatively short duration. China's stocks have been a major cause of the poor performance over the past decade. I do not view the under performance to be caused by poor stock selection but just having to choose stocks in a bad neighborhood. 

I am nowhere near a MAPTX position similar to what I have owned in the past. My main concern is China's government and its growing hostility to private companies. And, China may at some point attack Taiwan causing the same kind of cratering effect experienced by Russian stocks starting in February 2022. 

Dividends: Paid annually. I would expect expenses to absorb all or almost all of the relatively meagre dividends paid by owned stocks.  

2021-2022: 

2007-2020

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Current Position: 20+ shares ($22.97 AC per share)

Prior Sells: Item # 1 Eliminated MAPTX in Schwab Account - Sold 248+ shares at $27.9 (6/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $665.47); Item # 4 Eliminated MAPTX in Fidelity Account -Sold 218+ at $28.29 (8/16/17 Post) (profit snapshot = $2,573.82)

Prior to starting this blog in 2008, I sold 32+ MAPTX in 2007: 

Profit +$338.62

That sell was part of widespread liquidation of stock ETFs and mutual funds that year. 2007 Stock Fund Eliminations and Pares

MAPTX Realized Gains to date: $3,577.91

5. Small Ball Sells

A. Eliminated CCNEP - Sold 10 at $26: 

Quote: CNB Financial Corp. 7.125% Preferred Series A Stock

Issuer: CNB Financial Corp. (CCNE)

CCNE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings 

I have eliminated my position in the common stock. 

Profit Snapshots:  +$7.08

Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Started CCNEP - Bought 5 at $25.30 (10/31/2020 Post) 

Both 5 share lots were bought at a premium to the $25 par value. I am not supposed to to that. I will look for a reentry point somewhere below par value. Possibly I was hungry for yield back in 2020 but not so hungry that I would buy many shares at a premium to par value.  

Prospectus

Maturity: Potentially perpetual

Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 9/1/2025 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends. 

Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative

Stopper Clause: Standard  

B. Pared ENB in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 3 at $40.63: 

Quotes: 

USDs: Enbridge Inc. (ENB)

CADs: Enbridge Inc. (Canada: Toronto)

ENB Key Metrics | Reuters

I believe that ENB is North America's largest energy infrastructure company. 

Website: Home - Enbridge Inc.

ENB SEC Filings

Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Pared ENB in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $43.01 (8/23/22 Post) 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Added to ENB in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $29.51; 5 at $28.95; 5 at $27.4 (10/31/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 5 ENB at $30.65-Fidelity Taxable (8/15/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 1 ENB at $27.23; 1 at $26.21; 1 at $25.49; 1 at $24.29; 1 at $23.68  (4/18/20 Post)

Proceeds: $121.88

Profit Snapshot: +$24.15

Average cost this account before pare: $29.83 (33 shares)

Average cost this account after pare: $29.55 (30 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 1/6/23 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.8875 per share (C$3.55 annually), last raised from C$.86 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. 

Yield: The CAD/USD exchange rate will impact the dividend yield at my constant average cost number. 

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe {Generally, I will consider exchanging CADs which are owned in my IB account back into USDs when the CAD/USD exceeds .8, with the last significant transaction being 8/28/17, Item # 1 Bought $15,000 USDs Using C$18,747.15}

The actual yield will also depend on how of the Canadian dividend tax can be recouped through a foreign tax credit. 

Assuming a constant CAD/USD exchange rate of .75 (not a rational assumption but close to the existing number) and a C$3.55 annual dividend rate, the USD equivalent per share would be US$2.66, creating with those assumptions a 9.1% yield before the Canadian withholding tax. Generally, I have been able to recover all, or almost all, of the foreign country dividend withholding taxes through the U.S. foreign tax credit.    

Next Ex Dividend: 2/14/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filing 

All amounts are in Canadian Dollars. 

"GAAP earnings of $1.3 billion or $0.63 per common share, compared with GAAP earnings of $0.7 billion or $0.34 per common share in 2021"

Non-GAAP earnings "of $1.4 billion or $0.67 per common share*, compared with $1.2 billion or $0.59 per common share in 2021"

"Distributable cash flow (DCF)* of $2.5 billion or $1.24 per common share*, compared with $2.3 billion or $1.13 per common share in 2021" I view the DCF as more important number than the two E.P.S. numbers. 

ENB Realized Gains to Date: $423

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 7.A. Pared ENB in Schwab Account - Sold 2 at $46.77 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.27); Item # 3.F. Pared ENB in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $42.4 (3/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.71); Item 1.F. Pared ENB - Sold 3 at $42.18 (2/3/2022 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.89); Item # 1.E. Sold Remaining Shares Purchased with Dividends in Fidelity Account at 40.14 (10/15/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.93); Item # 1.B. Sold 8 ENB at $42.36 (2/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.36); Item # 3.B. Sold 17 ENB at $40.21 (1/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.18); Item # 1.B. Sold 15 ENB at $37.61-Used Commission Free Trade (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.29); Item # 3 Sold 50 ENB at $39.03 (12/21/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.48); Sold 10 ENB at $40.14 (1/4/18 Post)(profit snapshot =  $6.21)(no item #)

ENB SU Bonds, Reset Equity Preferred Stocks, and Exchange Traded Junior Bond: My exposure to its senior unsecured debt (8 SU $1K par value) and equity preferred stock (500 shares of ENBPRP:CA) is substantially higher than my common stock exposure. I also own an ENB exchange traded junior baby bond. 

Analyst Ratings (reports available to Schwab Customers): 

Morningstar (11/30/22): 3 stars with a US$38 Fair Value (noting that the company estimated that interest expense will increase by C$3.9B in 2023 and capital expenditures are projected to C$6B. Those expenditures will crimp DCF). 

S & P (11/7/22): 3 stars with a US$44 PT 

Argus (11/23/22): Buy with a US$48 price target

C. Eliminated KHC- Sold 5 at $42.44 and 10+ at $42.3:

Proceeds: $638.57

Quote: Kraft Heinz Co.

KHC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

KHC SEC Filings

10-Q for the F/Q Ending 9/24/22 

The Kraft Heinz Brands 

Profit Snapshots: +$125.25

5 Shares Vanguard Account +$50.7

10+ Shares-Schwab Account +$74.55

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.E. Bought 5 KHC in Vanguard Taxable Account at $32.3 (12/19/20 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40

Dividend History | The Kraft Heinz Company

The recent dividend history is poor. The quarterly dividend rate was $.625 per share but was slashed to $.40 effective for the 2019 first quarter payment. 

Last Ex Dividend: 11/23/22

Last Earnings Report (F/Q Ending 9/24/22): SEC Filing 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.35

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.63

The primary adjustments are "impairment" charges and unrealized losses on commodity hedges.  

Revenues: $6.505B "including a negative 6.4 percentage point impact from divestitures and acquisitions and a negative 2.3 percentage point impact from currency."

Free Cash Flow 9 months = $885M, down from $1.793B in the prior 9 month period.  

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab Customers): 

Morningstar (12/14/22): 4 stars with a fair value of $52

Argus (10/28/22): Hold 

S&P (10/26/22): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $39, raised from $38 after the last earnings report. "Elasticities remained strong" as product prices rose 15.4% Y-O-Y while volume fell 3.8%.

I do not have access to a JPM report, released on 1/11/23, where the analyst raised the PT to $44 from $42. 

D. Pared FHB in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $27.14: 

Quote: First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)

Proceeds: 225.34

Profit Snapshot: $46.05

FHB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

FHB SEC Filings

Average cost per share this account before pare: $18.25

Average cost per share after pare this account: $16.36 (30+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)

Yield at New AC per share of $16.36 this account = 5.868% 

Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/22

In my last post, I discussed paring my position in the Fidelity taxable account. Item # 4.C. Pared FHB in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5+ at $26.355 (1/10/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 third quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Overall, I have a favorable opinion about several FHB financial metrics including its low NPL, charge off and efficiency ratios. NIM grew significantly in the 2022 third quarter but was not impressive at 2.93%. The dividend rate has stagnated, as previously discussed, and the consensus analyst estimate for earnings growth is tepid.  For the stock to break out of its current funk, NIM needs to improve and earnings growth needs to trend meaningfully above current estimates IMO. 

I intend to liquidate the position in either the Schwab or Fidelity account when and if the share price goes back over $30. 

FHB Realized Gains to Date: $566.46

6. Treasury Note - Secondary Market Purchase: 

A. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 2/29/24 at 97.3171: 

I now own 5.

YTM at TC = 4.617%

Current yield at TC: 2.1836%

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.