Economy:
Historic decline in U.S. GDP in the second quarter 31.4% annual pace - MarketWatch That is the first estimate. Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
U.S. economy adds 661,000 jobs in September and unemployment rate falls to 7.9% - MarketWatch The consensus forecast was was for 800K. Private sector job growth was at 877K. The decline to 661,000 was a result of government layoffs largely linked to fewer 2020 temporary Census jobs.
ADP private sector jobs September 2020 (+749K private jobs; estimate was for 600K)
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 100.8 last month, up from 86.3 in August. The consensus estimate was for 90.1. This index was reported at 132.6 last February.
August Personal Income and Expenditures Report.pdf
Consumer spending rose in August; economy on track for record Q3 growth (the growth is after a record plunge in the second quarter)
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Markets and Market Commentary:
The market reacted negatively yesterday to news that Donald had become infected with the coronavirus.
10/2/20 Closing Prices:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 10/2/20: P/E & Yields
Trailing 12 Month GAAP: 34.94
Estimated Forward 12 Months Non-GAAP: 24.82
Shiller P/E = 30.75 Shiller PE Ratio
Market Cap to GDP : 130.9% Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
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Trump:
The "Debate":
I did not watch the debate.
They are not informative and overflow with misinformation and lies.
I knew that Trump would lie throughout since he is the most dishonest person alive today who is well known. 'Almost every single thing Trump said during last segment of debate was inaccurate' - YouTube
I did read some fact check articles.
With Cross Talk, Lies and Mockery, Trump Tramples Decorum in Debate With Biden - The New York Times; republished at MSN: Trump Tramples Decorum in Presidential Debate With Biden
Trump faces criticism for refusing to condemn white supremacists - CBS News; Trump says he doesn't know right-wing group he name-checked at debate There is a reason why he refused to do so. It would have been easy for him to say "I denounce white supremacists".Proud Boys Celebrate Trump's Call For The Hate Group To 'Stand By'; Donald Trump Tries to Court Black Voters After Refusing to Denounce White Supremacy
In TrumpWorld, Donald won big time:
I doubt that anyone in Trump's orbit will tell him what undecided voters had to say about his performance: Focus Group-YouTube Sure, Donald's cult members found it entertaining.
Maybe Biden won just by staying awake. And, Biden supporters can thank Donald for that result. The loser was the American people. The best option now for the American people would be to cancel the remaining two "debates".
Dangerous Don:
In his most recent opinion column, Thomas Friedman wrote that our "democracy is in terrible danger — more danger than it has been since 1861, more danger than after Pearl Harbor, more danger than during the Cuban missile crisis and more danger than during Watergate. "
While many will disagree or view that statement as hyperbole, I view it as a fair assessment.
Republicans and others, totalling over 62 million U.S. voters are going to support, in Friedman's words, the "most dishonest, dangerous, meanspirited, divisive and corrupt person to ever occupy the Oval Office." Opinion | Trump Sent a Warning. Let’s Take It Seriously. - The New York Times That is extremely unsettling. I would add a lying, authoritarian demagogue who will govern using fear and will continue to do whatever he can do undermine the institutions required for a democracy.
It is imperative that everyone supporting Biden cast their votes in person, as I previously mentioned given what Trump will clearly claim about mail-in ballots, and so does Friedman in that column.
Trump is already a permanent stain on the U.S., made far deeper by the fact that tens of millions, including almost all republican politicians, support, cuddle and protect a meanspirited, ignorant asshole who is a psychopath and malignant narcissist, who governs by lying, fanning flames of division and non-stop demagoguery and who is doing everything that he can to undermine the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy.
Don the Con's Tax Returns:
The main takeaway from the NYT's investigation involving Trump's tax returns is that Donald has shamelessly engaged in creating a false image of his business acumen.
Donald would be selling used overpriced used cars to desparate poor people without Fred Trump's money.
New York Times' Trump Tax Returns Investigation: 18 Revelations - The New York Times; republished for a brief period at MSN: 18 Revelations From a Trove of Trump Tax Records
Donald was paid $427.4M for pretending to be a genius businessman on the Apprentice Reality show and its associated licensing deals. Tax Records Reveal How Fame Gave Trump a $427 Million Lifeline - The New York Times ("Mr. Trump’s genius, it turned out, wasn’t running a company. It was making himself famous — Trump-scale famous — and monetizing that fame.")
Blame Mark Burnett for revitalizing a false image that has had disastrous results for the U.S.
When one of Burnett's producers walked through Trump's offices, where the show would be televised, he saw "chipped furniture" and a "crumbling empire at every turn. Our job was to make it seem otherwise," adding that their job was to turn the "court jester ( into) the king" It was all Fake News. How Mark Burnett Resurrected Donald Trump as an Icon of American Success | The New Yorker
According to the NYT, Doofus Don has "largely' lost that sum by investing in unprofitable businesses.
"In 2018, for example, Mr. Trump announced in his disclosure that he had made at least $434.9 million. The tax records deliver a very different portrait of his bottom line: $47.4 million in losses."
The NYT disclosures about tax matters relating to Seven Springs comes closest IMO to tax fraud. I need to see more facts before forming a conclusion. The NY grand jury is reportedly looking into that issue now.
Donald also largely squandered the $413M in today's dollars that Daddy Trump gave him starting when he was a toddler. Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father - The New York Times; Trump lost more than $1 billion in a decade, tax returns show: New York Times
Donald's successful businesses largely involve licensing his name to others who take the business risks, the big con Apprentice TV show and its related sponsorship deals.
When the Duck tried to run businesses, he managed to bankrupt six of them. Fact Check: Has Trump companies declared bankruptcy four or six times? - The Washington Post (Answer: 6 times); Donald Trump’s Business Failures Were Very Real | The New Yorker Only the ignorant, stupid, and/or gullible accept Donald's reality creations about his business acumen. Decade in the Red: Trump Tax Figures Show Over $1 Billion in Business Losses - The New York Times
More bankruptcies will come soon based on the facts disclosed in the NYT investigation.
Don the Con has personally guaranteed over $420M in debt that will have to refinanced by 2022-2023, now secured in part by failing businesses like the Washington International Hotel and the Doral country club in Florida. And, importantly, major IRS penalties may soon be imposed that will exceed $100M.
American banks learned a long time ago to avoid lending meaningful amounts to Donald. Deutsche Bank will soon find out why. Trump Tax Avoidance Scandal Exposes Poor Risk Management And Double Standards At Deutsche And Professional Banks: Forbes; Donald Trump's Tax Returns Raise Deutsche Bank Loan Questions Only a fool would loan large sums to the Duck based on his past history.
Ask yourself why someone who was actually rich would become involved in a scam like Trump University unless they needed the money?
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The Republican War on Voting:
Trump's GOP will do whatever is necessary to stay in power.
Jacob Wohl, Jack Burkman Charged In Michigan Over Alleged Voter Suppression Robocalls Wohl and Burkman are pure 100% Trumpsters. Predominantly black voting areas were targeted with a robocall claiming that the CDC would use voting information to compel Covid-19 vaccinations, creditors will come after the voters for unpaid debts and police will arrest those with outstanding warrants. Trump won Michigan in 2016 with 2,279,543 votes to Clinton's 2,268,839. Black voter turnout was significantly less in cities like Detroit compared to 2012. In Detroit, signs of increased interest among Black voters, but concerns remain (8/3/2020)
Jack Burkman and Jacob Wohl share IMO many traits common to Trumpsters. In Trump's America, they are called "conservatives".
The voting in Texas may be going the wrong way for the republican governor Greg Abbott, so he ordered on 10/1/20 that all but one ballot boxes be removed from large population Democrat strongholds on 10/2/20. Abbott orders counties to close multiple ballot drop-off sites
Fareed Zakaria: This is how Republicans keep their power - YouTube (Donald is shown being fully aware of what I am about to say about the elector's vote for President) On 1/6/20 at 1:00 P.M., a joint session of Congress will convene to open the electoral votes cast by each state. One senator and 1 House member are needed to object to the tally. 3 U.S. Code § 15 - Counting electoral votes in Congress | U.S. Code
If the two chambers disagree on the correct tally, then "the votes of the electors whose appointment shall have been certified by the executive of the State under the seal thereof, shall be counted."
If neither candidate has the necessary 270 votes to win, possibly due to successful court challenge that throws out a particular state's popular vote tally altogether (e.g. where Trumpsters control the state Supreme Court), then the President is selected by the House of Representatives with each state casting one vote.
While the Democrats would have a significant majority in the House when that vote occurs before inauguration day, the republicans would win, as Trump has previously noted, since there would be more states casting their vote for Donald than for Biden.
It is of course the republicans, not the Democrats, who are trying to steal the election, with their non-stop voter suppression and intimidation tactics just as starters. How the GOP Plans to Suppress the Vote and Sabotage the 2020 Election. The republican Supreme Court Justices made that suppression easier by joining together in a 5 to 4 decisions in Shelby County v. Holder, 570 U.S. 529 (SupCt 2013) that struck down part of the Voting Rights Act. Justice Roberts wrote the decision. Roberts engaged in reality creations to justify his holding. It’s a Fact: Supreme Court Errors Aren’t Hard to Find — ProPublica; On Voting Rights, a Decision as Lamentable as Plessy or Dred Scott
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Former Republican Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge: I'm voting for Joe Biden | Opinion Ridge was also the first Secretary of Homeland Security, assuming that position in January 2002 after being appointed by President George Bush.
Trump’s ex-national security adviser says president is ‘aiding and abetting’ Putin - POLITICO Isn't that obvious except to Trumpsters of course.
How the new Supreme Court could stymie a Biden presidency - POLITICO The recent trend has been to restrict the scope of Congresses power to legislate through the Commerce Clause and to broaden the scope of the 10th Amendment. I anticipate that the reactionary Supreme Court majority will increasingly rule that legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by the President is unconstitutional, either as an improper extension of those two branches power under the Commerce Clause or as an improper usurpation of power reserve to the states under an expanded interpretation of the 10th Amendment. The general approach will be to roll back the progress made over the past century or so.
(see generally, Interpretation: The Commerce Clause | The National Constitution Center; Interpretation: The Tenth Amendment | The National Constitution Center)
I'm Smart - YouTube Donald is an Extremely Stable Genius in TrumpWorld.
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Temp worker tossed Pennsylvania ballots Trump complained about, official says; PA county official: DOJ identified discarded ballots as being for Trump - POLITICO
In a highly unusual move, the Trump appointed U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Pennsylvania, the Trumpster David Freed, publicly announced that he was going to launch an investigation after the facts were already known and the few inadvertently tossed ballots were recovered.
Freed claimed that 7 of the 9 ballots were cast for Trump, a clearly improper statement that proved IMO that his announcement was purely political
Immediately after Freed's public announcement, the RNC claimed this error as proof that the Democrats were trying to steal the election and Trump suggested it was part of the Democrats effort to steal the election.
It is clear that Trump's DOJ, Donald and the RNC were coordinating their response. If Biden wins, David Freed needs to be fired immediately after the inauguration. Justice Dept. statement on mail-in ballot investigation appalls election law experts - The Washington Post; Barr briefed Trump on investigation into discarded Pennsylvania ballots - ABC News
The issue is not that the FBI has launched an investigation, which is appropriate, but that Trump's DOJ publicly announced the investigation for political purposes. The DOJ policy is to refrain from publicly announcing ongoing investigations.
White House again criticizes FBI director for voting remarks - ABC News
Donald probably did not hear about the numerous vehicular assaults on peaceful protesters, which explains why they are neither included in his campaign videos nor mentioned in his tweets:
Woman Joanna Gollnau charged with felony in Breonna Taylor protest hit-and-run - ABC News (9/26/20)
Cars hit Black Lives Matter protesters 104 times since George Floyd (7/8/20)
Protester hit by car on I-5 in Seattle dies, another remains in serious condition - YouTube
Brad Parscale, Senior Adviser To Trump Campaign, Is Hospitalized After Call To Police : NPR Parscale was Donald's campaign manager for two years until Donald demoted him after being embarrassed by the low turnout at his Tulsa Mass Infection Event. Trump Campaign Manager Out In Last-Minute Shakeup : NPR; Suicide threat by former Trump campaign manager reveals allegation of domestic abuse - The Washington Post Donald hires only the best people. Prior campaign managers include Paul Manafort and Steve Bannon. Why Steve Bannon Was Arrested - The Atlantic; Manafort convicted on 8 counts
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Covid-19 Updates:
 |
| As of 10/2/20 |
Donald was in close contact with Hope Hicks who tested positive for the virus and was symptomatic.
Notwithstanding that fact, Donald attended on 10/1 a closed door meeting with donors at his country club at Bedminster. White House officials knew Hicks tested positive -- but Trump still traveled for a fundraiser
A timeline of Trump's movements highlight his lack of precautions. Tracking Trump’s movements and contacts before he tested positive for coronavirus - Washington Post
On Wednesday 9/30/20, Donald held a Mass Infection Event in Duluth, Minnesota and a private fundraiser. Of course, most of the Trumpsters refused to wear masks or to socially distance.
Hope Hicks, who was traveling with Donald, reported symptoms Wednesday during the Mass Infection Event in Duluth. She quarantined on the flight back to Washington Wednesday evening. Hope Hicks Tests Positive for Coronavirus, Trump Begins 'Quarantine' - The New York Times
How did Trump get COVID and who has he infected?
It will probably never be known for certain who gave Donald the virus or how many people he infected before going into quarantine.
It is possible that Donald become infected at the Mass Infection Event announcing the selection of Judge Amy Barrett as the republican's Supreme Court nominee. See photos at Where Trump went (and who he was with) leading up to his coronavirus diagnosis - POLITICO
The Trumpster Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) attended that event, refusing to wear a mask or to socially distance, and was caught on tape hugging other people who were refusing to follow simple precautions. Lee announced yesterday that he tested positive for Covid. Lee did have a mask in his hand. White House SCOTUS announcement is suspected as Covid super-spreader event as video shows infected senator hugging attendees | The Independent; Sen. Mike Lee attends events without mask, tests positive for COVID-19 - Business Insider
Lee was also photographed indoors with Barrett, neither wearing a mask or socially distancing. If this was a super spreader event, it is possible that the spread occurred inside before and/or after the outdoor ceremony.
Senator Tom Tillis (R-NC) also announced yesterday that he had Covid-19. He attended the ceremony. Tillis is also a member of the Senate Judiciary committee along with Senator Lee. Tillis met with Amy Barrett last Wednesday. Tillis Meets with Judge Amy Coney Barrett (neither wore a mask as shown in the photos); COVID-19: Mike Lee tests positive as GOP seeks Barrett confirmation; Tillis: 'I fell short' on mask wearing at RNC - POLITICO Tillis debated his democrat opponent Cal Cunningham, who is leading in the polls, last Thursday. US Sen Thom Tillis tests positive for COVID-19, will isolate | Raleigh News & Observer
Melania, who has tested positive, was sitting next to Barrett's husband and their children. None of those people were wearing masks or socially distancing.
Other people attending this event have tested positive including Kellyanne Conway who refused to wear a mask. Trump tests positive: With the President hospitalized, more Covid cases emerge in White House and campaign
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel tested positive for coronavirus - Axios (she was with Trump a week ago) Trump's new campaign manager Bill Stepien has also been infected with the coronavirus. Trump's campaign manager tests positive for Covid-19
How the coronavirus spread in Trump's White House - The Washington Post
And it turns out that Amy Barrett tested positive sometime this summer.
However, if Donald was at all concerned about others, he would have self-quarantined after being in close contact with Ms. Hicks until he received the results of a test. Instead, he proceeded to Bedminster even though he knew before leaving D.C. that Ms. Hicks had tested positive.
I have heard many Trumpsters defend their refusal to wear masks and socially distance as part of their freedom and a risk that they are willing to take. What is always missing in their calculation, since it is of no real concern to them, is their refusal to take simple precautions may lead to them infecting others and possibly killing them.
The White House downplayed Trump's illness yesterday before he was transported to Walter Reed. He received an infusion of Regeneron's experimental antibody cocktail REGN-COV2 and Gilead's Remdesivir. The REGN-COV2 drug just completed a Phase 1 2/3 trial. Regeneron's REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail Reduced Viral Levels and Improved Symptoms in Non-Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
What we know about Regeneron antibody drug Trump took to combat coronavirus
President Trump given experimental COVID-19 drug remdesivir
The CDC Director Robert Redfield voices alarm over influence of Trump's new coronavirus task force adviser Scott Atlas (Redfield was overheard saying that "everything" that Atlas says "is false". Atlas fits right into TrumpWorld.)
Behind the White House Effort to Pressure the C.D.C. on School Openings - The New York Times ("Top White House officials pressured the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this summer to downplay the risk of sending children back to school, a strikingly political intervention in one of the most sensitive public health debates of the pandemic, according to documents and interviews with current and former government officials.")
Mike Pence predicted the pandemic would be 'behind us' by Memorial Day - Business Insider That is by Memorial day 2020, not 2021. So I am really glad the pandemic is gone now. These figures on deaths and infections that I publish each week are Fake News in TrumpWorld.
This article summarizes some of the misrepresentations made by Fox "news" about the pandemic: Fox News’ COVID Denial Hasn’t Aged Well | Vanity Fair
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All trades are commission free.
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades.
Dividends: Quarterly
Prior Trades: None
Stock Information as of 10/2/20:
Investment Strategy: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Releases
"United delivered net income of $25.1 million and pre-tax pre-provision income of $65.6 million and built its allowance for credit losses with a $33.5 million provision for credit losses. Due largely to the continued reserve build anticipating potential future loan losses driven by COVID-19 effects on the economy, diluted earnings per share of $0.32 represented a decrease of $0.23 or 42%, from a year ago. Excluding merger-related and other charges, diluted operating earnings per share were also $0.32, also down 46% from last year"
Net Interest Margin: 3.42%
Charge off, efficiency and NPA ratios are good:
E.P.S., ROE and ROA hit by build up in reserves driven by Covid 19 impacts on the economy.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.97
In June, United raised raised $200M through issuing $100M in equity preferred stock with a 6.875% coupon and another $100M in fixed-to-floating rate senior notes with a 5% coupon. Bond Prospectus; Equity Preferred Stock Prospectus
Prior Trades: None
D. Added 2 FIVG at $28.16; 2 at $27.8-Vanguard Taxable:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $19.71, up from $19.5 as of 5/30/19
Securities Owned:
That book value number is calculated by dividing shareholder equity of $253.995M by 14.673257M shares outstanding. To arrive at tangible book value, I subtracted $52.533M in goodwill and intangibles shown on the balance sheet from the $253.995M in shareholder equity, arriving at $201.462M. That adjustment gave me a tangible book value per share of $13.73.
2020 Guidance:
Maximum Position: 50 shares
All trades are commission free.
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades.
1. Small Ball:
A. Started MGV-Bought 2 at $79.17; 1 at $78.69 1 at $77.5; 1 at $75.77; 1 at $74.35; :
Expense Ratio: .07%
Holdings: 151 stocks
Some Top Holdings as of 8/31/20:
Dividends: Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend: 9/11/20
Current Position: 6 shares
Average Cost Per Share: $77.44
Prior Trades: None
B. Started FFNW (Schwab Taxable)-Bought 10 at $9.55; 5 at $9.05
Quote: First Financial Northwest Inc. (FFNW)
Quote: First Financial Northwest Inc. (FFNW)
Closing Price 10/2: FFNW $9.15 +$0.13 +1.44%
Stock Information as of 10/2/20:
"First Financial Northwest, Inc. is the parent company of First Financial Northwest Bank; an FDIC insured Washington State-chartered commercial bank headquartered in Renton, Washington, serving the Puget Sound Region through 13 full-service banking offices."
Offices:
FFNW Analyst Estimates
Investment Strategy: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
FFNW SEC Filings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/20 (bought 10 shares day before; 5 after)
Investment Strategy: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
FFNW SEC Filings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/20 (bought 10 shares day before; 5 after)
Average Cost Per Share: $9.38 (15 shares)
Dividend Yield at $9.38 = 4.26%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $15.14 as of 6/30/20
Dividend Yield at $9.38 = 4.26%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $15.14 as of 6/30/20
5 Year Financials:
5 Year Chart:
NIM: 3.12%
Efficiency Ratio: 73.18% (too high)
NPL Ratio: .19%
NPA Ratio: .19%
Charge Offs: net recovery
Average Shares Outstanding: 9.819+M
PPP Loans: $51.7M
"Company repurchased 135,450 shares during the quarter at an average price of $9.42 per share under a stock repurchase plan that expired on July 27, 2020"
"Company repurchased 135,450 shares during the quarter at an average price of $9.42 per share under a stock repurchase plan that expired on July 27, 2020"
"Company’s Board of Directors authorized a new stock repurchase plan to repurchase up to 5% of its outstanding shares of common stock effective July 30, 2020, for a period of up to six months."
Loan Modifications:
"As of July 16, 2020, $16.6 million in loans included in the table above for which the deferral period had expired had resumed their scheduled payments. Extension requests were approved on eight loans with a total balance of $17.6 million which were previously modified."
Capital Ratios: Okay as of 6/30/20
C. Started UCBI- Bought 5 at $18.06; 5 at $17.6; 2 at $17.19; 1 at $16.29; 1 at $16.18:
Closing Price 10/2: UCBI $17.42 +$0.39 +2.29%
"United Community Banks, Inc. (NASDAQ: UCBI) (United) is a bank holding company headquartered in Blairsville, Georgia, with executive offices in Greenville, South Carolina. United is one of the largest full-service financial institutions in the Southeast, with $15.0 billion in assets, and 149 offices in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee at June 30, 2020. Through its July 1st acquisition of Three Shores Bancorporation and its wholly-owned banking subsidiary, Seaside National Bank & Trust, United added approximately $2.1 billion in assets and 14 banking offices in key metropolitan markets throughout Florida."
"United Community Banks, Inc. (NASDAQ: UCBI) (United) is a bank holding company headquartered in Blairsville, Georgia, with executive offices in Greenville, South Carolina. United is one of the largest full-service financial institutions in the Southeast, with $15.0 billion in assets, and 149 offices in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee at June 30, 2020. Through its July 1st acquisition of Three Shores Bancorporation and its wholly-owned banking subsidiary, Seaside National Bank & Trust, United added approximately $2.1 billion in assets and 14 banking offices in key metropolitan markets throughout Florida."
Investment Strategy: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $17.51 (14 shares)
Dividend Yield at AC = 4.11%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20 (owned as of)
5 Year Financials:
5 Year Chart as of 10/2/20:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Releases
"United delivered net income of $25.1 million and pre-tax pre-provision income of $65.6 million and built its allowance for credit losses with a $33.5 million provision for credit losses. Due largely to the continued reserve build anticipating potential future loan losses driven by COVID-19 effects on the economy, diluted earnings per share of $0.32 represented a decrease of $0.23 or 42%, from a year ago. Excluding merger-related and other charges, diluted operating earnings per share were also $0.32, also down 46% from last year"
Net Interest Margin: 3.42%
Charge off, efficiency and NPA ratios are good:
E.P.S., ROE and ROA hit by build up in reserves driven by Covid 19 impacts on the economy.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $16.97
In June, United raised raised $200M through issuing $100M in equity preferred stock with a 6.875% coupon and another $100M in fixed-to-floating rate senior notes with a 5% coupon. Bond Prospectus; Equity Preferred Stock Prospectus
The preferred stock trades under the UCBIO symbol and is currently trading over its $25 par value.
Prior Trades: None
D. Added 2 FIVG at $28.16; 2 at $27.8-Vanguard Taxable:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L (9/12/20 Post); Item #3.D. Started FIVG in Vanguard Account-Bought 8 shares at an average cost of $29.44 (7/29/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Started FIVG in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $27.6 (8/15/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: The First 5G ETF - FIVG
Sponsor's Website: The First 5G ETF - FIVG
Expense Ratio: .3%
E. Added to TRST-Bought 5 at $5.69; 10 at $5.6; 5 at $5.15; 15 at $5.23:
E. Added to TRST-Bought 5 at $5.69; 10 at $5.6; 5 at $5.15; 15 at $5.23:
Closing Price 10/2: TRST $5.37 +$0.07 +1.32%
Stock Information as of 10/2/20:
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Item # 4.B. Restarted TRST- Bought 10 at $5.95; 5 at $5.83 (8/29/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add.
Old Average Cost Per Share: $5.91
New Average Cost Per Share: $5.54 (50 shares)
Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 6/30/20: $5.73
Dividend: Quarterly at $.0681 per share ($.2724 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/20
Yield at New AC = 4.92%
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 125 TRST at $8.6 (11/2/19 Post); Item # 1.B. Sold 161+ TRST at $9.2+ (7/2/18 Post); Item # 2 Sold 100 TRST at $6.69 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 1 Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post); Sold 50 TRST at $7.29 (11/25/13 Post); Sold 308 TRST at $6.64 (10/28/13 Post)(largest gain at $549.47)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
TRST Realized Gains to Date: $1,067.40
F. Restarted FFIC-Bought 10 at $12.25; 5 at $10.6; 2 at $10.7; 3 at $10.3: 10 at $10.2 :
Closing Price 10/2/20: FFIC $11.13 +$0.41 +3.82%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Stock Information as of 10/2:
Recent News: Flushing will soon complete the acquisition of Empire Bancorp. Flushing Financial Corporation Announces Receipt of Remaining Regulatory Approvals for Acquisition of Empire Bancorp, Inc. (FFIC expects "earnings accretion of 20% in 2021.") Empire has 4 full-service banking offices in Long Island. Flushing Financial Corporation and Empire Bancorp Inc. Agree to Complete Their Merger Under Extended Time Frame (8/17/20 Press Release)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Average Cost Per Share:
Yield at AC =
Last Ex Dividend:
5 Year Financials:
The annual dividend penny rate was $.64 in 2015 and at $.84 in 2019.
5 Year Chart: Certainly Ugly enough for me
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): Flushing Financial Corporation Reports Record Net Interest Income; Net Interest Margin Expansion Driven by Ability to Significantly Reduce Funding Costs
The relevant number is Non-GAAP earnings or what the company refers to as "core". The GAAP earnings were increased by $10.3M or 27 cents per share due to a "non-cash fair value adjustment on our junior subordinated debt ".
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $19.71, up from $19.5 as of 5/30/19
NPA Ratio: .29%
NPL Ratio: .34%
Coverage Ratio: 181.8%
CORE ROA: .57%
CORE ROE: 7.39%
CORE E.P.S. $.36, up from $.19 1st Q 2020, and down from $.42 in the 2019 2nd Q (less interest income largely due to loan modifications, see below)
"At the height of the request period, April and May 2020, COVID-19 forbearances peaked at $1.5 billion. By June 30, 2020, we reduced that number to $1.3 billion comprised of 82% real estate loans. Through July 10th, 63% of the $146 million in loans scheduled to return to regularly scheduled payments have done so."
Loan Modifications as of 6/30/20:
"799 active COVID-19 forbearances outstanding at July 10th for loans with a combined principal balance of $1.3 billion at the time of forbearance; total combined deferment of $36.4 million in principal, interest and escrow"
"over 88% of our gross loans are collateralized by real estate"
"loan-to-value ratio on our portfolio of real estate dependent loans as of June 30, 2020 totaled 38.1%"
Capital Ratios: Okay as of 6/30/2020
Prior Sells: +$297.3; Item # 2 Sold 50 FFIC at $14.51 (5/2/11 Post); Item # 4 Sold 50 FFIC at $13.53 (10/31/11 Post)
G. Started STX as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $45.92:
Closing Price 10/2: STX $48.74 -$0.32 -0.65%
Stock Information as of 10/2/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.65 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 9/22/20
Dividend Yield at $45.92:
5 Year Financials: Debt heavy with erratic GAAP earnings
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 7/30/20):
Prior Trades: None
H. Started PFBI-Bought 10 at $12; 5 at $11.85; 5 at $11.4; 5 at $11.2:
Closing Price 10/2: PFBI $10.85 +$0.17 +1.59%
PFBI is a bank holding company whose operating subsidiary, Premier Bank, has 31 banking offices in West Virginia, Virginia and the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Stock Information as of 10/2:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $11.53
Dividend Yield at AC = 5.2%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20 (owned as of)
5 Year Financials:
Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 12/31/19: $12.77
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Premier Financial Bancorp, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2020 Earnings
E.P.S. $.37, down from $.40 in 2nd Q 2019
NIM: 3.83%
NPL Ratio: 1.33% Elevated
NPA Raio: 1.52% Elevated
Shares Outstanding: 14,637,257
Book Value Per Share: $17.31:
"The provision for loan losses increased by $700,000, or 78.7%, in the first six months of 2020, largely to provide for the $1,650,000 of estimated additional credit risk in the loan portfolio related to consequences of the national economic shutdown aimed to moderate the spread of COVID-19. The annualized returns on average common shareholders' equity and average assets were approximately 8.72% and 1.19% for the six months ended June 30, 2020, compared to 10.70% and 1.41% for the same period in 2019."
Maximum Position: 50 Shares (limited due to elevated NPL and NPA ratios)
Prior Trades: None
I. Sold 100 JQC at $6.19:
Closing Price 10/2: JQC $6.03 +$0.05 +0.84%
Profit Snapshot: +$37.49
Sponsor's Website: JQC - Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund
Dividend: Monthly at $.081 per share (significant ROC support); $.972 per share annual rate
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20
Leveraged: Yes, substantial
The largest JQC position was eliminated in 2012: Item # 5 Sold 804+ JQC at $9.35 (5/16/12) (profit snapshot = $1,060.29)
I have pared a JQC position in my Fidelity taxable account and current own less than 100 shares with an average cost per share at $5.85. Assuming a continuation of the current dividend penny rate, which is not an assumption that I would make given the history of cuts, the yield at that price is 16.62%. I sold the highest cost lot (20 shares) from that position at a $.45 profit.
The goal with high credit risk positions is to harvest the dividend and escape with whatever profit may be available.
J. Restarted KR-Bought 5 at $32.95; 2 at $32.52; 2 KR at $32.03:
Closing Price 10/2: KR $34.07 +$0.05 +0.15%
For the most part, I have owned only Kroger's senior unsecured bonds. Most of those bonds matured in 2019 or earlier this year. My last purchase was in March 2020, when investment grade SU bonds were tanking in price. Item # 4.A. Bought 2 KR 3.3% SU Maturing on 1/15/21 at a Total Cost of 99.6 (5/16/20 Post); Bonds Detail and Prospectus (rated Baa1 by Moody's) I own 4 of those bonds. I also own 2 of the 2.6% KR SU bonds maturing on 2/1/21. Bonds Detail
Kroger has been a beneficiary of the pandemic, as more people dine at home. Earnings have been favorable for the last two quarters. Many analysts believe that Kroger will not be able to continue that earnings momentum with more restaurants reopening and attracting more patrons. That is reflected in the current E.P.S. estimates for 2020 and 2021.
Consensus E.P.S. Estimates:
2020 $3.26
2021 $2.71
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually), raised from $.16 effective for the 2020 first quarter.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/20
Average Cost Per Share: $32.65
Dividend Yield at AC = 2.21%
In the past, the KR bonds have provided me with higher yields which explains my lack of interest in the common shares. That is no longer the case. For example, the KR 2.8% bond maturing in August 2022 has a YTM close to .5%. Bonds Detail The 2.6% SU maturing in 2026 is currently trading with a YTM near 1%. Bonds Detail
Last Earnings Report (F/Q Ending 8/15/20):
Identical Sales without fuel grew 14.6%
Digital sales grew 127%
Digital sales grew 127%
EPS of $1.03; Adjusted EPS of $0.73, up 66% compared to prior year
Operating Profit of $820 million; Adjusted FIFO Operating Profit of $894 million, up 43% compared to prior year
Digital sales mostly refer to customers ordering online and picking up curbside at a store.
Prior Round-Trip Snapshots:
 |
| 2009 KR 150 Shares +$173.17 |
 |
| 2008 KR 100 Shares +$116.97 |
K. Started REYN-Bought 1 at $32.3; 2 at $31.9; 1 at $31.75; 1 at $31.49; 2 at $31.3; 2 at $30.8:
Closing Price 10/2: REYN $30.99 +$0.04 +0.13%
Brands | Reynolds Consumer Products The two main brands are Hefty and Reynolds Wrap.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share
Average Cost Per Share: $31.34 (11 shares)
Yield at AC = 2.81%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20)
"Cash and cash equivalents was $392 million as of June 30, 2020.
Subsequent to June 30, 2020, the Company made a $100 million voluntary payment on its $2,475 million senior secured term loan facility."
2020 Guidance:
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
L. Added to BK-Bought 3 at $34.81:
Closing Price 10/2/20: BK $34.74 +$0.57 +1.67%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. (9/12/20 Post) I have nothing to add to that discussion.
Average Cost Per Share This Account: $36.07 (10 shares)
Dividend Yield at AC: 3.44%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/24/20
M. Added to CATY-Bought 1 at $23.75; 1 at $21.38; 1 at $21.13:
Closing Price 10/2: CATY $22.20 +$0.50 +2.33%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. (9/19/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. I have nothing further to add.
Old Average Cost per share: $23.76
New Average Cost Per Share: $23.39
Dividend Yield at AC = 5.3% (quarterly at $.31 per share; $1.24 annually)
N. Started FFNW (Fidelity Taxable)-Bought 10 at $9.64; 5 at $9.1:
See Item # 1.B. above.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average Cost Per Share: $9.46
Dividend Yield at AC = 4.23%
O. Started CXP (Vanguard Taxable Account)-Bought 10 at $10.55:
Quote: Columbia Property Trust Inc
Closing Price 10/2: CXP $11.33 +$ 0.13 +1.16%
I discussed this office REIT in my last post and have nothing to add here. Item # 1.B. (9/26/20 Post)
My average cost per share will be lower in the Vanguard account since the initial purchase was made at a lower price. Using the small ball trading restriction, each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. I will not be reinvesting dividends in this account.
Yield at $10.55 = 7.96%
2. Aegon Hybrids:
A. Sold 5 AEB at $24.99:
History this Account:
Investment Category: Aegon Hybrids,
AEB is not a traditional equity preferred. It combines equity and bond characteristics as explained in the Aegon Hybrids post linked above.
It is a hybrid (equity/bond) that pays quarterly "dividends" for a U.S. taxpayer at the greater of 4% or .875% above the 3 month Libor rate on a $25 par value. The Libor rate will soon be phased out. There is an alternate rate mechanism provided for in the prospectus. Since I have owned this security, it has paid the minimum 4% coupon since that rate was always higher than the 3 month Libor +.875%.
Profit Snapshot: +$58.27
Item # 4.A. Bought 5 AEB at $13.34 (4/18/29 Post) This purchase was made on 3/18/20. AEB does have a tendency to have a meltdown when common stocks tank and the VIX spikes to high levels. AEB is not a common stock. Maybe I will be able to buy more when and if the price plunges again.
AEB Realized Gains to Date: $3,641.61 (prior trades = $3,583.34; snapshots in Aegon Hybrids post)
I started to trade this security in 2008 when the price collapsed into the single digits. The lowest price paid was $4.8. Buy of 50 AEB at $4.8 (2/23/2009)
Links to posts discussing the 3 largest gains:
Item # 2 Sold 100 AEB at $18.42 (10/4/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,142.51)
Item # 3 Sold 100 AEB at $18.2635 ROTH IRA-Average Total Cost $6.05 (9/19/11 Post)(profit Snapshot = $1,213.76)
Item # 2 SOLD 100 of 300 AEB at 19.72 (8/16/2010 Post)(profit snapshot 150 Shares at $772.04)
Over the past few years, I have lost interest in this security anywhere near its par value.
The main reason is that it is highly unlikely that the floating rate will exceed the 4% minimum coupon anytime soon, and there is no difficulty finding higher yield preferred stocks that are similarly rated.
The other reason, less material but important, is that it is unclear what the alternative to Libor will be. While that is irrelevant now, it may become an issue later in the decade when and if there is a non-temporary spike in short term rates.
While I may elect to buy during a price crater event, I will sell when the price moves back close to par. (e.g. Item # 2 Sold 50 AEB at $25.23 (9/7/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $166.46)-Bought at $21.9 and discussed here)
3. Dividend and Interest Payments Received 9/29-30/2020 in Fidelity Taxable Account:
These snapshots highlight various aspects of my investment strategy.
The focus is on generating income while controlling risk as much as possible through a variety of techniques.
Except for Tennessee Municipal bonds, the monetary exposure to a single security is small.
Municipal bonds only trade in five $1k par value lots.
The Williamson County GO bonds are rated AAA. Two cities located in that county have AAA ratings as well: Brentwood and Franklin. The Montgomery and Maury county bonds are rated AA (S & P) and Aa2 (Moody's) respectively. An emphasis is placed on credit quality.
The corporate bonds shown below are either 1 or 2 bonds lots. I am more likely to revert to my mile wide, inch deep approach for those bonds.
Three of the corporate bonds are leftovers from my now defunct "junk bond ladder strategy": First American (now known as CoreLogic) (2); Hercules (1); and BBVA Birmingham (1). Of those only BBVA has improved its credit rating since my purchase and is now rated at BBB/Baa2. Bonds Detail (formerly known as Compass). Item # 2 Bought 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75(1/11/12 Post), Bonds Detail; Bought 1 CoreLogic 7.55% Senior Bond Maturing 4/1/2028 at 84.95 (2/22/12 Post),Bonds Detail; Item # 3 Bought 1 7.55% CoreLogic Senior Bond Maturing 4/1/2028 at 94.975 (4/29/11 Post); Item # 2 Bought 1 Hercules 6.5% Junior Bond Maturing on 6/30/29 at 86 (6/24/11 Post), Bonds Detail.
The main reason that I still own those bonds is that they are too difficult to sell. The other reasons is that I currently lack any incentive to try given their yields.
I am currently reinvesting the dividends in beaten up common stocks which would be the case for virtually all regional bank and BDC stocks. I will generally cease reinvestment when I would not make an open market purchase at the likely reinvestment price.
I turned off the reinvestment option for the bond CEF PPT when the discount to net asset value disappeared and turned it back on when the discount expanded which included the September dividend payment. The discount to NAV per share was -5.92% as of 9/30/20. PPT-CEF Connect The average one year discount was then at -1.47%. For CEFs, turning on and off the dividend reinvestment option depends in part on historical average discounts.
Another typical strategy would be own the same security in two accounts, where I reinvest the dividend in one account and take it in cash in another.
4. Tennessee Municipal Bond Interest Payments Made on 10/1/20-Schwab Taxable Account:
Over the next few years, my main source for interest income will be my Tennessee municipal bonds which I own in 3 taxable accounts.
On 10/1/20, I received in my Schwab account $540.63 in tax free interest payments.
The largest payment was $200 made by a Wilson County GO, rated at AA+ (10 bond lot):
That bond was bought in 2017: Tennessee Municipal Bonds Item # C. Bought 10 Wilson County 4% General Obligation Bonds Maturing on 4/1/39 (5/2/17 Post); Municipal Securities-Emma The issuer may redeem at par value on or after 4/1/2026. The reasons for the current price is that time restraint on the optional redemption, the coupon rate, credit quality and the currently abnormally low interest rate environment that is likely to continue for all or most of the remaining time to the optional call date.
Other municipal bond payments (5 bond lots):
The Metropolitan Government of Nashville bond is an obligation of Vanderbilt University, but is issued by an agency of that government. Municipal Securities -Emma (rated AA+/Aa1). I own 10, with 5 of those owned in my Vanguard taxable account. Item # 1.F (6/12/17 Post) The 5 bonds in my Schwab account were bought at a total cost of 99.5, with a YTM then at 3.27%.
The YTM for the last trade was near .25%. The bond can be called on 10/1/22 at par so it will be called then.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
A meme going around...
ReplyDelete"Now we know RBG's won her first case in front of G'd"
In North Carolina, that's the 4th and hardest Senate flip. Unfortunately Cal Cuttingham's been found sexting with a staffer. It's hardly sexting, just talk of kissing. But it shows he had or talked about having an affair.
NC has early voting but those aren't likely the one's who'd change their mind.
The rest of the news is utterly ironic. While spitting on RGB's last wish, they managed to reduce their chances of getting the vote in, and harmed their own presidency ambitions. Possibly their lives as well.
CNN's got articles that the vote is delayed and probably won't happen. And that if it goes into lame duck it won't happen. I don't get where they get that from. But any delay is better than no delay.
I am getting very tired of the phrase "in an abundance of caution." Closing the barn door after the herd is out grassing on drinks in the pasture, is not caution. This isn't even karma. It's predictable and scientifically highly probable results of prior behavior.
I've written 35 letters and 10 postcards. Am signed up for more texting. This is my best way to stay calm.
About 5 days to be sure Biden is negative.
You've bought an some different from usual stocks! They look interesting.
I'm not understanding why the market is going down over this event. It's big news, but it doesn't effect the economy or policies. The market wasn't going to tank over a Biden win or it would have been moving with related news before now.
BUT, the stimulus is definitely delayed. FG comments that the stimulus isn't needed (based on one of the investing bank's assessments). But that market won't think that.
Red on Monday, opportunity, if I get my list honed up... seems like.
---
Since i started writing this...
The announcements so far have all been false. There were clues. Like Trump was settling in the convalesce (not isolate) while he had no symptoms, is a Freudian slip in the formally released statement yesterday.
"There may be more positives" this morning is short for "we know of more but don't want to tell you in case we can avoid it."
Scott in Florida was positive, but then was corrected to negative. So, he's unable to read a lab? Or he's lying like a good little Trump sycophant? (Though, I hear he's a big sycophant in more ways than one.)
Land: The disclosures about Trump's health and when he was first diagnosed are changing by the hour.
DeleteHis lead doctor indicated stated early today that Donald had been diagnosed 72 hours earlier, which would be Wednesday.
He then claimed this afternoon that he misspoke. What he meant to say was Donald was in "Day Three" of his diagnosis which occurred Thursday night according to the new story.
If he was diagnosed on Wednesday, that would make Donald look uncaring, which he is of course, since he was in close personal contact with a number of people thereafter until Friday. It was already bad that he proceeded to NJ after being told that Hicks came back with a positive test result and met with a large group of people indoors.
I suspect that he had a positive test on Wednesday using Abbott's device, which produces fast results. That would make sense since Hope Hicks reported symptoms that day. Hicks may have been tested with that device Wednesday since she self-quarantined on the flight back from Minnesota.
The Abbott test device is portable and would no doubt have beed transported with Donald wherever he went.
He was then probably given a blood test that is more accurate and results were returned Thursday night.
The doctors are being evasive when asked questions.
So the question that I would ask was he given the Abbott test on Wednesday and was the result positive? If the doctor refuses to answer, the answer would have been yes.
++
Cunningham had the lead in N.C. but the race was close with Tillis. The revelation about a possible affair will hurt. Georgia and Iowa are in play.
https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2020-senate-election-polls/
++
The REYN buys are in several accounts. I mentioned only the starter in my Fidelity taxable account.
I have access to only 1 brokerage report on that company. Credit Suisse has an outperform rating and a $36 PT (dated 9/9/20).
In the regional bank stock sector, I am proceeding with extreme caution. The focus is finding beaten up stocks that are currently selling below tangible book value with greater than 4% yields, along with mostly favorable financial metrics excluding some that are understandingly negative under the circumstances. (e.g. negative Y-O-Y E.P.S. growth due to increased credit losses and loan loss reserve builds).
Seagate is a new name for me. I have only owned its bonds in the past.
Kroger is okay based on valuation IMO, and my gut informs me that analysts are too negative about 2021. I have generally stayed away due to the low dividend yield.
I did some light paring in utility stocks last Friday. I own the ones that I have discussed so far in several accounts.
The largest position in DUK is in my Fidelity account. I sold my highest cost share bringing me down to 25+ (dividends reinvested). I sold 2 in another account with 1 sold at $92.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3619584-duke-energy-left-door-open-for-talks-after-rebuffing-nextera-ft?mod=mw_quote_news
I also pared PEG in 2 accounts and EVRG in 1 account.
The focus is on capital preservation partly achieved with the small ball strategy, both on buys and sells.
Trump's doctor may now be using the word "diagnosed" to mislead when Donald was first suspected of being infected.
DeleteI mentioned the possibility that he would have been given the Abbott test on Wednesday after Hope Hicks reported symptoms and self-quarantined on the Wednesday flight back to D.C. from Minnesota.
If she was tested with Abbott's device, with a positive result, then I am confident that Donald would have been tested as well and reasonably confident that Donald would have been tested after she reported symptoms, irrespective of her test results, if any, on Wednesday night.
The importance of the timing is that Donald continued to meet with people the next day who were told nothing.
I did text canvassing today and yesterday. No one asked me about the scandal. Even those voting for Cal did't mention any "in spite of." One is voting 3rd party not Biden (because she's for nuke power and dems are against it) but is voting for Cal because of the need to flip.
DeleteYou pointed out I think Iowa or other close flippable. I looked it up, and it was looking good in polls. There's till hope.
Enough people on committee sick enoough not to vote... maybe that will hold up the scotus. It's a long shot still at holding it up.
---
I think media's getting played here in the usual way. Trump's been tested eveyry day, knows when he got it. Either on the way to Rose garden or Wed. He has the flubbing going on to not have to announce that he purposely exposed people. Media's going "oh maybe they don't know and don't want to say so." So gullible. He knows. He's guilty of something. He's hiding. They're fallig for the doubt and confusion distraction game. Again.
The Abbott's device and quick turn around is important info to use when assessing all their announcements.
Testing isn't perfect, so any guest could have gotten Trump sick and tested negative. Refusing to use masks and distance could do the rest.
Trump's guilty of getting others stick and that's what they're covering up. Otherwise they'd be forthcoming with the timing. We've seen this pattern from him before.
---
I aimed to spend the day looking up stocks. But a friend I wasn't close to, but in an older friendship circle passed away (unclear if suicide). So there's been calls to support people and emails.
Market's up. I hear because of his motorcade stunt.
He's headed to WH this week with full staff and ventilater to pretend he's well, and cover up to media, in a new scene in the reality TV show spoof we're living in.
PS I suspect you've picked up on one of the covers by using diagnosed to cover up when suspected, etc..
DeleteSenator Johnson (R-Wis) was diagnosed with an infection and then attended a fundraiser.
DeletePerhaps it is divine justice that the republicans were likely infected when giving themselves high fives at the Amy Barrett confab.
Several photographs taken indoors before the Rose Garden ceremony show Trump, Melania, Senators Lee and Tillis in close contact and maskless. Tillis was later photographed in the Rose Garden wearing a mask. Lee never wore one, and was hugging others and talking to them in close proximity who were not wearing masks.
The Trumpsters are not learning any lessons from the foregoing. What I read is why wear a mask or socially distance when everyone is going to become infected-look they can not even protect Trump. It is a brain dead type of reaction to Trump refusing to follow basic safety precautions and his effort to minimize the pandemic.
At the debate, the rule was that everybody present had to wear masks other than Biden, Trump and Wallace. The Trump family and other Trump invitees took their masks off after being seated.
The treatments being given to Donald are only consistent with a serious covid infection, particularly the steroid dexamethasone. The doctors, while painting a rosy picture, are using everything in the Covid arsenal including that antibody cocktail that is in an early trial phase.
I would be interested to know how low did his blood oxygen level fall. The doctors would not be giving him supplemental oxygen on just a dip below 95. I suspect the decline was to below 80. The doctors have so far continued to be evasive.
The WHO guideline for using dexamethasone is only for “severe and critical Covid-19.”
https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Corticosteroids-2020.1
Eventually, we will probably find out whether Donald tested positive using the rapid Abbott test before a more reliable test confirmed the result. He still proceeded to that Bedminster fundraising event knowing that Ms. Hicks had been confirmed as a positive, and the WH was slow to provide NJ with a list of persons exposed to potential infections at that gathering, which was necessary to start contact tracing. Donors arrived from across the country.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/trump-covid-update-bedminster-fundraiser-drew-donors-from-across-country.html
That did not take long. The WSJ just reported that Trump did test positive using the rapid test which was confirmed late Thursday by a more comprehensive screening.
Delete"Trump Didn't Disclose First Positive Covid-19 Test While Awaiting a Second Test on Thursday" The story is reprinted for now at MSN.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-didnt-disclose-first-positive-covid-19-test-while-awaiting-a-second-test-on-thursday/ar-BB19HcYT?li=BBnb7Kz
It only makes sense to me that Trump would have been tested with Abbott's rapid results test when Hope Hicks reported symptoms and quarantined on the flight back to D.C. from Minnesota. That means that Donald went to Bedminster knowing that he had received a positive result for Covid.
So for the Rose Garden event, Senator Johnson (R-Wis) was the known spreader. Trump wasn't the known superspreader. Why hadn't he fired Johnson by tweet retribution yet? (The ridiculousness of that is irrelevant at stopping him.)
DeleteBut by Thursday he was tested positive before going to his high dollar funders.
I thought I saw something about Wed symptoms. I wonder if the testing included postivites or symptoms before Thursday.
While that matters, he's already crossed the line on Thursday, deeply crossed it.
Dexamethasone steroids is what I had. They're pretty common in low doses. They aren't handed out willy nilly though.
This article has the doctor saying drop to 93%, while the NIH guidelines are only if on oxygen, very sick, and not early in onset.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/04/trump-receiving-dexamethasone-steroid-usually-given-patients-with-severe-covid19/
I am still suspicious that he knew earlier and was spreading it to Hope Hicks and others. And that's part of what they are trying to hide. (May or may not be true, but I would not rule it out yet.)
Futures still think all is good in the world.
People are letting down their guards. While winter is coming. Numbers already heading up again. It would not be surprising to see a turn for the worse. Treatment protocol is better, but that's not enough.
Land: It would be fair to conclude, based on what is known now, that the gathering at the White House, where Trump introduced Amy Barrett as his Supreme Court nominee, was a superspreader event. There are just way too many people connected with that event to conclude otherwise.
DeleteIt is not known who was spread the infection. Senator Johnson is a possibility as is Trump.
Johnson claims that he did not receive the positive test result before he attended a fundraiser last Friday evening, but knew then that he had been exposed to confirmed infected people.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-sen-ron-johnson-went-to-oktoberfest-party-after-testing-positive-for-covid-19
The White House is saying that Trump tested negative on Thursday morning using the Abbott rapid result test. I am suspicious of that claim. The fundraiser at Bedminster was Thursday afternoon. The WSJ story says that he was tested again after returning to Washington and the result was positive. He was then given another test that confirmed the positive result. So within a few hours on Thursday, Donald allegedly went from a negative to a positive result using the rapid test.
The only admission so far is that he knew that Hope Hicks had tested positive before leaving for the campaign fundraiser at Bedminster in NJ. It was Hope Hicks that reported symptoms Wednesday and was quarantined on the return flight from Minnesota. I do not know when Donald first reported symptoms, though several attendees at the fundraiser said he looked lethargic. No one was told at the fundraiser that Donald had been exposed to anyone with a confirmed infection. One attendee asked Donald why he had not arrested some leading Democrats:
"Questions asked by the donors ranged from why there had not been arrests and criminal prosecutions of leading Democrats"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/03/politics/bedminister-trump-fundraiser-coronavirus/index.html
I would be surprised that Donald had any impaired lung function at 93% blood oxygen. If a pulse oximeter was used to measure, a normal range is 95% to 100%, though those devices can be off high or low by 2%.
https://www.healthline.com/health/normal-blood-oxygen-level#oxygen-levels
I hit a curious problem tonight. The post office near me's night scale says not available for mailing packages on the electronic screen. So I couldn't weight my package. The next post office over, has removed their afterhours scale and purchase machine altogether.
ReplyDeleteI don't know when these inconveniences were installed. Christmas isn't going to go well if everything has to be done during open hours.
Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB)
ReplyDelete$12.50 +$0.79 (+6.73%)
As of 10:47AM EDT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PACB?p=PACB
I have not been paying any attention to PACB. I have a faint memory that it was going to be acquired and then the merger fell through, possibly due to antitrust considerations-though I am really fuzzy on that.
JPM upgraded PACB and increased its PT from $5 to $15.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3619591-pacific-biosciencesplus-12-jp-morgan-analyst-triples-price-target
The company announced a new product launch today:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/05/2103493/0/en/Pacific-Biosciences-Launches-the-Sequel-IIe-System-to-Accelerate-Adoption-of-Highly-Accurate-HiFi-Sequencing.html
I still own 30 shares bought as a Lottery Ticket back in 2016.
Item # 1 Bought 30 PACB at $8.9:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4877990-update-for-healthcare-basket-strategy-of-5-9-16
There was a pop, or what passes for a pop these days, in the ten year treasury yield.
ReplyDeleteU.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
0.788% 0.09%
Last Updated: Oct 5, 2020 4:56 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page
I am attributing that rise to renewed hopes about a stimulus deal.
Regional bank stocks rallied more than the S & P 500.
S&P 500 Index 3,408.63 +60.19 +1.80%
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$38.48 +$1.54 +4.17%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
There is enough action to keep me from taking an afternoon nap.
I did buy today 100 GDO at $16.72 and 100 BIF at $10.08.
GDO is a leveraged bond CEF that liquidates in 2024. Dividends are paid monthly.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gdo
I recently pared a position in another taxable account:
Item # 1.F.Pared GDO-Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $17.41; 5 at $17.43:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/09/aiv-bdge-dcomp-ebmt-gdo-htprd-isbc-nwbi.html
GDO is just a relatively short term risk alternative to cash earning .01%. I have bought and sold it many times.
CEF Connect Page:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/GDO
BIF is a slightly leverage stock CEF that has a value tilt.
Last Discussed:
Item # 4.H. Restarted BIF-Bought 10 at $9.26; 10 at $8.75:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/arcc-bif-cio-dirunca-brgpra-fnb-gnl.html
CEF Connect Page:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/BIF
This fund is really heavy into Berkshire Hathaway.
The motivation behind both purchases was income generation for cash that continues to build up in sweep accounts.
One of the big downsides to Berkshire is lack of div. So a fund with some plus pay out is intriguing.
ReplyDeleteEverything apparently is rising on expectations of a stimulus deal.
The motorcade risk event was also a boost.
If a deal is signed, I will buy, not because prices are good, but because the market will think so.
There's a lot freeier relaxed movement happening. Trump's selling that covid isn't a big deal. Fall is coming. I see room for risk here. Particularly in Jan when the market often turns down.
Trump isn't better and he didn't fake the whole thing. He's setting up a hospital in the WH. That's all. And probably has bribed to be able to get back to Walter Reed in a backdoor way. For the sake of everyone's lives, I hope he has a bad enough case before recovering that he can't hide it and claim covid is no big deal.
I wonder if Cuttingham's problems are seen as reducing a senate flip, which is better for business to not flip and give the DNC free rein. That seems a little too specific for the market to focus on.
Land: The CEF BIF had a portfolio value, as of 6/30/20, of $1.170+B and a total cost at $574.9+M:
Deletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/102426/000139834420015066/fp0056075_ncsrs.htm
The net asset value per share was then at $11.66 and closed last Friday at $12.17. I do not have the number for today. BIF could pay hefty dividend sourced from capital gains, but chooses to do almost no selling. It has been selling a few shares here and there to support a quarterly dividend of $.102 per share. So the issue with BIF and its dividends is not Berkshire's no dividend policy but BIF's buy and hold approach. BRK/A and BRK/B accounted for 34.2% of the assets as of 6/30/20.
++
Trump is once again minimizing the pandemic. The 213+K American who have died so far had nothing to worry about in TrumpWorld. And, almost none of them had the care that Donald has had and will have, including receiving an experimental antibody cocktail.
Donald was last seen maskless entering the White House to join his aides. That says a lot, considering the WH is not a coronavirus hot spot and Donald is a carrier.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/president-trump-saying-he-feels-good-returns-to-white-house-and-promptly-ignites-new-mask-controversy-2020-10-05?mod=mw_latestnews
" White House rebuffed CDC offer to lead contact tracing investigation of Trump outbreak"
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/10/05/white-house-tracking-trumps-covid-outbreak-sidelines-cdc/3630015001/
And media did his return like a pomp and circumstance show. Played right into it. Which lets him send the "no big deal" message, just as winter's coming.
DeleteDoes sound like there'll be a vaccine by late fall, so late Nov into Dec. And distribution next year.
I'll be turning in my ballot tomorrow.
I was surprised Powell from Fed spoke so negatively that it triggered the market a little. It makes me question my theory that he's on a short leash from Trump. Maybe he is independent, contrary to how prior pressure tweets at him have worked.
Land: Donald just compared Covid-19 again to the flu, saying in a tweet that coronavirus was in "most populations far less lethal!!!."
DeleteI doubt that Donald's conduct last night will sway undecided voters to his side. The message that he sent, when he defiantly took off his mask and then entered the White House, is that it is okay to enter the workplace maskless even if you are infectious. The message will resonate only with the Trumpsters.
According to a Business Insider article, Don Jr. sought a family intervention since his dad was acting crazy at Walter Reed. How could anyone tell there was a difference?
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-jr-thought-father-acting-crazy-walter-reed-report-2020-10
I am still listening to Woodward's book. It needs to be reclassified as non-fiction horror.
Donald is now actively trying to interfere in the FDA's approval process for a vaccine. He knows better than the experts what proof is necessary to show effectiveness and safety. And, the vaccine better be approved by election day or he is going to have one of his hizzy fits.
++
I believe that the current FED is largely independent from political pressure. ZIRP and QE into infinity are currently thought to be necessary to produce some inflation and economic growth. Ultimately central bankers will conclude, maybe in about 30 to 50 years, that suppressing interest rates below the inflation rate for an extended period is deflationary, not inflationary, and likely to create financial dislocations, impropriate cash allocations by businesses into nonproductive assets, bubbles and other problems that will undermine the benefits longer term.
++
Given the rally in regional bank stocks, I have just taken them off my consider to buy list, though I will be discussing several buys in subsequent posts that have already been made.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$39.66 +$1.18 +3.05%
Last Updated: Oct 6, 2020 at 1:33 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
"Don Jr. sought a family intervention since his dad was acting crazy at Walter Reed. How could anyone tell there was a difference? "
DeleteNot fair to make me laugh. I'm still charlie horse from some stomach exercises I did before the weekend (which is a long time.)
"non-fiction horror."
A new genre? Finally something just for Trump, that he really is better at than any other politician.
"have one of his hizzy fits."
Yawn. We all won't decide for ourselves based on science and what Fauci says? Everyone else thinks science is eewy, and won't want a vaccine anyway.
"for an extended period is deflationary, not inflationary, and likely to create financial dislocations"
That's it. At first QE was thought to be inflationary. It turned out not to be. Now it's long term, and the deflation is setting in, rather than the inflation that is still thought to be it's dynamic. Problem is that with QE is keeping rates low. You can't keep something low in order to get it to go high.
Maybe Regional Banks will come back down and be buyable again.
I'm glad I didn't go on a buy spree today. But that's just luck.
This does answer for me whether the stimulus is going to happen. I'd been leaning to not. It appears someone convinced Donald to take the fall for the GOP's inability to pass something reasonable, in their looking bad against the DNC that's already passed a bill.
Why would Donald take responsiblity? Promise as a carrot to voters after election. Like a threat that you'll get some relief sooner if you stick with picking this nightmare. Perps and abusers do think that way.
Or someone's giving him campaign $?
Land: Delusional Don says he will pass a stimulus bill after he wins. The unstated precondition for implementing that claim will be the issuance of an executive order dissolving Congress.
DeleteI thought the reaction to Donald's termination of negotiations, which appeared to making progress prior to his return from Walter Reed, was very mild with the S & P 500 declining by only 1.4%.
The VIX did spike in reaction, hitting an intra-day high of 30 shortly after Donald's tweet:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix
Interest rates declined.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
Possibly, the Stock Jocks believe that a big stimulus package will be passed, not when Donald wins reelection, but in January after the democrats win the trifecta.
I did some light selling of regional bank stocks in my Roth IRA accounts this morning.
I did almost nothing in my taxable accounts, spending less than a $100.
Lol "executive order dissolving Congress"
DeleteThat is what's needed isn't it?
The reaction is mild. My first guess is that it hasn't sunk in. Also they don't believe the negotiations will stop.
I can't imagine the stock jocks are trying on a package in a new decade, i.e 3 months. On an election where the Senate may not flip.
Maybe they just think Trump's announcement is irrelevant to life, Congress, and the anything.
Futures aren't down much .40%. Has no relationship with tomorrow morning.
---
US security is now more risky.
Also Stephen Miller is now positive. I have nothing nice to say, so I'll say nothing more on that.
Now Don Jr wants to stage an intervention because his father is acting crazy. How does he differentiate from all the rest of his time?
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/10/don-jr-thinks-trump-is-acting-crazy-presidents-covid-joyride-has-family-divided
I'm surprised this article made it into print:
""A rare moment of *unity* in the US election, as Donald Trump marked his return to the White House by gasping along with his detractors""
After much more descriptive verbiage it includes a good point:
"The lying, the reality-denying is not a one-off case – it’s the other epidemic."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/06/donald-trump-coronavirus-balcony-drugs
What's puzzling is how well small caps are doing. With the stimulus in question, they did not have a big sell off.
DeleteLand: No one should be surprised that the White House is a Covid-19 hot spot.
DeleteOver the past several days, the WH has reported more infections than many countries including Taiwan.
I would need a space suit before entering.
Miller bears an uncanny resemblance to Reinhard Heydrich:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinhard_Heydrich
Maybe Heydrich's lives on.
Biden has widened his lead in recent polls.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-cnn-poll/index.html
Many swing voters have IMO become so weary of, and disgusted with Donald that giving him another 4 years as President has now become unimaginable to them. His debate performance may have tilted many into that frame of mind.
Part of the recent stock rally may be due to (1) an increased likelihood that Trump will lose so badly that even he will not contest the election results and to (2) the Democrats winning the trifecta as Donald takes down all or virtually all vulnerable republicans with him, which translates into a huge stimulus bill passing in the 2021 first quarter that includes massive infrastructure spending.
There is no way that the republicans can regain control over the House. They are more likely to lose a few more seats than gain a few.
Even if Donald won and the GOP maintained control over the senate, Donald will still have to deal with Pelosi.
Voting so far is heavy which IMO does not bode well for the republicans.
I view it as likely that the Democrats will end the filibuster rule when and if Biden wins and the democrats have majorities in both the Senate and the House. They are not going to allow Mitch to frustrate legislation through a filibuster (60 votes needed for cloture under existing rules except when it comes to judicial confirmations where the rule has already been eliminated fairly recently)
Google still does not transmit my posts to email. At least I now think to expect that.
DeleteI can't see the market thinking that the election is solid with the Senate still in flux, and worries are over. I can't see them thinking through things in that complicated a way. But it's possible.
I'm not worried about Biden winning at this point. Trump keeps digging down harder. The early voting is one of the nice indicators. I am worried about voter tampering. And Senate race.
Miller's family can not figure out where he got his views. They don't match the families, his community growing up. They've been interviewed, and written articles upset about him.
I have a gross theory. People survived in a variety of ways. Rapes happened. Maybe Heydrich, or a relative of Heydrich, is part of his DNA.
Turns out the market assumed Trump might be full of it. And turns out they were right. He's backed off his remarks and switched to a kind of support for pieces of a stimulus.
DeleteIf I remember correctly he did this a couple months ago, and used FEMA funds to pay out stimulus.
Is there money he can rob this time? We didn't find out last time what Pelosi would with his pressure on piecemeal stimulus. Market is assuming the money is available and coming. Trump said there's left over funds from the last stimulus. 1) that's really bad management if there's a lot of left over 2) then I guess there are funds 3) but they aren't new amounts to add to the economy beyond what the market rallied over already.
Lawrence O'Donnell commented last night that the USA now has the largest trade deficit ever. Donald made something the bigly-est. I don't know that that matters to anything market or economy-wise, especially with Biden probably coming who will negotiate trade deals in a more stable way.
---
There's a media push to use steroids as an excuse for Trump's behavior.
1) Why oh why are they giving him excuses? "It's just the drugs." This is his usual behavior and why to vote him out.
2) I've taken THAT drug in HIGH doses. I had an unusually high dose for a particular problem 40mg (usual is 4mg/daily) plus 20mg IV, but there's a whole forum of people who've taken this same med, by IV in doses of 20mg. It was unpleasant with bloating, weight gain, brain fuzzy, the crash when off it was irritatingly painful and tiresome. A lot of people report an energy high on it. But very little emotional stuff, a little maybe. And delusional thinking is extremely rare, just possible, not usual. I heard of no one frustrated with things they did during. Mostly excitement that they'd had energy to clean their houses for the first time in a while. (I got barely an energy lift at all.)
I wouldn't have wanted to operate heavy machinery or make major decisions on it, but that's because it was hard to think like when you have the flu, not because it was erratic to think.
I'm not in close enough proximity to judge but the likelihood that steroids are causing the more recent disrespectful, dangerous behavior that is like his prior attitudes and behavior, is near nil.
I could see it causing him to announce no more stimulus without thinking through that it'd trounce the market. But it didn't cause him to force everyone to get in a closed in car with him for a pretend parade.
Just venting. I've been hearing this for a few days now, and it's misleading.
Land: Being crazy and filled with rage is Donald's natural state.
DeleteThere is some medical research that COVID may adversely effect brain function, estimated to adversely impact around one-third of those infected and hospitalized.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/10/06/covid-hospitalized-patients-prone-brain-malfunction-study-finds/5904177002/
Donald has taken a lot more than just the steroid. I am not sure anyone understands how all of those drugs, including the new antibody cocktail from Regeneron and Gilead's Remdesivir, interact with one another in a 74 year old overweight man.
++
A skinny package could have been passed months ago and has received no interest so far from the democrats.
Trump's latest tweet appears to be entirely political. Pelosi may just ignore him.
Trump used FEMA money for the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit, which was to last about 6 weeks and has already ended in some states. That was just a partial replacement for the extra $600 weekly benefit that had expired on 7/31/20.
The unspent money that Trump referenced is probably the amount authorized but not used in a previous Paycheck Protection Program. That unspent amount had more to do with the timetable for applications and demand from businesses with the former only capable of being alleviated through additional legislation.
https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2020/sep/aicpa-urges-ppp-loan-extension-expansion.html
++
The rally in regional banks resumed again today:
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$39.23 +$0.82 +2.13%
Last Updated: Oct 7, 2020 at 12:33 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
I am linking that most recent push to a rise in interest rates and a growing consensus opinion that the Democrats will win the trifecta and pass a huge stimulus bill no later than February 2021.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-a-democratic-clean-sweep-in-novembers-elections-is-rattling-a-sleepy-u-s-bond-market-11602087917?mod=mw_latestnews
"Being crazy and filled with rage is Donald's natural state."
DeleteYes that's what I'm saying, only more succinctly.
"Donald has taken a lot more than just the steroid."
Exactly. Between that and the covid, his brain could be additionally mush-prone and he shouldn't be remaining in power. But there shouldn't be attempts to sell on false ideas about dex and "roid rage." More accurate comments about his compromised state from covid and drug cocktails might have an effect. Instead of comments that get eye rolls from most cancer patients, doctors and pharmacists.
---
If Dem sweep is being considered in articles, for the bond market...
then maybe that is why the market is expecting a stimulus package. Three months isn't worrying them.
A trifecta is not in the bag.
Land: Trump is having to spend money in Texas, Ohio and Florida. The democrats are expanding the playing field by throwing money in tight senate and house races that normally would be safe for republicans, including the Kansas and South Carolina senate races.
DeleteI don't believe that anything is in the bag, though the Democrats maintaining control of the House is close to 100%.
I would put the odds of the republicans losing the Senate at 60%-70% given the number of republican incumbents now trailing their democrat opponents.
The odds that Trump will win are around 15%:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
And, virtually everyday, Trump digs another hole for himself with his tweets, other statements and/or actions.
Today, Donald went back into the Oval Office to meet with staff while infectious, and he thanked God for blessing him with Covid.
I'd put the house at essentially 100%
DeleteBiden very likely. Unless there's game playing that successfully interferes.
The Senate is the part I worry about. If NC doesn't flip, there's still a few other close races that can come through. But it's not 4 that are ahead enough to have a sense of certainty. 60-70% feels right. NC was the 4th most likely.
There's more texts on Cunningham. Media's describing it as "oh more than before." But it's turning out to be one intimate event in July, and that's it. Compared to Trump's paying off a porn star to cheat with his new, 1st time mother, wife.
He sure checks off enough poor morality clauses to make an argument for every bad revelation. Not that his base gets that.
I can understand why airline stocks moved up some today, with the renewed chance of a second bailout package, but the odds for a comprehensive stimulus bill before the election is IMO unrealistic now.
ReplyDeletePelosi told Mnuchin that the democrats had supported last Friday the passage of an airline package but the republicans blocked passage. To pass the bill quickly, the House needed unanimous consent.
And, there is opposition to the dollar amount among senate republicans who will have the hands full pushing through the Comey confirmation before the election.
I continued with some light regional bank selling in 1 Roth IRA account.
In taxable accounts, I did some insignificant small ball buying in pipeline stocks, adding to PBA, KMI (which I started earlier this week), and ENB. The stocks were down in price when I bought. This was another less than $200 day.
++
Donald believes that it is a blessing that God gave him an infectious disease.
The Trumpsters will be praying hard tonight for the same gift.
They will do whatever is necessary of course, going maskless and refusing to socially distance, to contract this potentially deadly disease and to spread God's blessing to as many innocents as possible, including those who do not want the blessing of this disease.
I for one, do not want this blessing.
DeleteI also don't want hail, brimstone and wild fires.
I imagine a whole bunch of white house employees are anxiously trying not to be blessed.
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
ReplyDelete$134.59 +$10.52 +8.48%
Last Updated: Oct 8, 2020 9:38 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ibm
The price pop is due to an announcement that IBM will split into two companies:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ibm-to-accelerate-hybrid-cloud-growth-strategy-and-execute-spin-off-of-market-leading-managed-infrastructure-services-unit-301148458.html
I own a few shares in 3 taxable accounts and 1 Roth IRA. The largest position, and the only one that I have discussed here, is in my Fidelity account.
Last Discussed:
Item # 1.C.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/asb-avk-cswc-d-fidi-glq-ibm-kw-lmha-ofs.html
Average Cost that account: $121.89 (18+ shares)
I eliminated my IBM positions earlier today, except for the 18+ shares owned as a bond substitute in my Fidelity account. The sells were in the $133 to $133.5 range.
DeleteI do not see the financial engineering announced earlier today as solving any of IBM's problems. And the proposed spinoff date is in late 2021.
I didn't know an IBM split was even in the works.
DeleteI couldn't picture why two parts would be worth more than together at +8%. It introduces some inefficiencies.
Land: The general idea is to unload legacy businesses, either by selling them or spinning them off to shareholders, leaving the growth businesses that hopefully will grow and be afforded a higher multiple.
DeleteThe argument, normally made by companies spinning off operations, is that the part spun off can become more focused and possibly generate more enthusiasm among employees through stock option grants tied to the performance that specific spun off business. My response is that why can't the employees focus now to address unmet opportunities for growth.
I still view IBM as a bond substitute and still own 18+ shares. I simply profitably jettisoned the smaller number of shares held in other accounts, roughly realizing $10 per share gains.
IBM closed at $131.49, up 5.98%.
+++
There has only been a limited amount of press on the New England Journal of Medicine scathing editorial on Trump's handling of the pandemic. This is the most preeminent medical journal in the U.S. and it has avoided until now politics for its 208 year history.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812
+++
Pentagon blindsided by Trump’s new Afghanistan troop withdrawal assertion
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pentagon-blindsided-by-trumps-new-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal-assertion-2020-10-08?mod=mw_latestnews
I'd heard mention of he NEJM's, not read it.
DeleteHe is antiscience. Except when helping himself.
No one's mentioned the troop withdrawal. Wonder who's going to move in, instead?
Got onto twitter and was frustrated. Trump gives reasons why he won't debate. Media and politicians are commenting on his given reasons, not mentioning the obvious unstated reason. He's lying about being well, and is using his usual circus method to get out of it.
ReplyDeleteLand: The nation would be better off with no more "debates".
DeleteDr. Conley has already lost his credibility. Key medical information is not being disclosed at all.
Donald did behave crazy in an interview earlier today, possibly more rambling and bizarre than usual.
"The 48 most unhinged lines from Donald Trump's Fox Business interview"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/donald-trump-maria-bartiromo-fox-business/index.html
If the next debate was virtual, it would be easy to cut Donald's microphone off, leaving only his face twisted in rage and his mouth moving with no sound, when he tries to talk over everything that Biden says.
For the future, the most salient point is that over 62M people will vote to give Donald, a lying, narcissistic, sociopathic, ignorant, authoritarian demagogue another 4 years.
I'm fine with no more debates. The last presidential one created massive PTSD, or at the least ringing in the head of many people for many days.
DeleteI would enjoy someone having control over Trump's mic. That'd be a first.
This summary of FOX. Wow. He sounds like a dictator who's reached the end of this power-reserves, is cornered, and starts ordering every competition thrown in the dungeon, and yelling about every past event that mattered to him ("her emails, her emails"). He's lost touch with even the parts of reality he used to know about. What was the name of the Roman dictator who lost sanity when he was cornered politically and started to sound like this? The Alice in Wonderland line "Off with their heads" pops into my head every time.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/08/walls-close-trump-he-lashes-out-his-most-loyal-allies/
I'm going to go work on my taxes. It think it will be less stressful than the news. A lot more boring (figuring out medical bills and mileage.)
Land: In that Fox interview, Donald demanded that Barr arrest Biden, Obama and Hillary immediately.
Delete"Trump Lashes Out at His Cabinet With Calls to Indict Political Rivals", a NYT article republished at MSN:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-lashes-out-at-his-cabinet-with-calls-to-indict-political-rivals/ar-BB19Qpta?li=BBorjTa
Michael Hayden video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi94gpFNgv8
I thought this one was funny/sad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tZVnbDq9B4&t=2s
The Hayden one makes me tear up every time.
DeleteThe Evita one is new to me, clever. Unfortunately also, true.
I had a question for the Board of Elections. There was a line of cars to get to the drop off mailbox. There was another line of people standing outside to ask questions. (I'll try again mid-day Monday.) If I was dropping off my version of lazy is that I'd park and walk the 1 min... not sit in a snail line like it's a McDonald's drive thru with French fries at the end.
""the most salient point is that over 62M people will vote to give Donald""
ReplyDeleteYep.
There's a problem trying to gather past polling data, that people remember voting for the winner more than they did at the time.
Hope is that Biden wins, and a sizable portion then suddenly discovers they voted for Biden.
What's left will be that 15-20% of any population that is similar to Trump, meanspirited and all, and like him because he authorizes their most base character...
Xilinx Inc.
ReplyDelete$122.94 +16.95 +15.99%
Last Updated: Oct 9, 2020 at 9:34 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/xlnx?mod=home-page
I do not own this one. The stock is jumping on a report that AMD is in advanced discussions to buy Xilinx:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/amd-said-to-be-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-in-over-30-billion-deal-.html
Xilinx is the 5th highest weighting in the ETF FIVG which I do own in several accounts and was most recently mentioned in Item # 1.D. above.
Defiance Next Gen Connectivity ETF (FIVG)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fivg
Sponsor's website:
https://www.defianceetfs.com/FIVG
There is also a pop so far this morning in the #2 weighting NXP Semiconductor:
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$140.57 +5.60 +4.15%
Analog Devices Inc. is at #4.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/adi
Qualcomm Inc. is at the #1 weighting:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/qcom
Good to know. It's hard to keep track of all the semiconductor activity.
DeleteI have recently reinvigorated my Lottery Ticket Basket strategy that permits small ball buys in stocks that I would normally avoid. Possibly that is due to my unwillingness to visit a casino now. In fact, I have not been to one in a few years and have no desire now to return. So back to purchasing Lottos on the stock exchange.
ReplyDeleteI no longer update positions using that strategy, with my last general update of trades being on 10/1/2015:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2011/10/lottery-ticket-strategy-new-gateway-post.html
I have mentioned some of those buys here, like DBX and KC. I will probably get around to discussing those buys at some point.
Today, I bought 5 EBIX as a Lottery Ticket:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ebix
I mentioned in a recent post that I recently revisited Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula investing website for the first time in several years. That was in connection with my discussion of AMCX.
I noticed then that I had previously bought 3 of the top 30 stocks with market caps over $50M identified by that formula, including AMCX, prior to that visit.
EBIX is the 4th and the only one bought after visiting that website.
Registration required:
https://www.magicformulainvesting.com/Screening/StockScreening
I did not spend much time researching this stock. I did review a recent SA article this morning before buying and the most recent earnings report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814549/000119312520213140/d57279dex991.htm
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378221-ebix-value-investing-unicorn
Note. I play blackjack at $100 per hand so a 5 share buy of EBIX is slightly more than 1 hand.
I bet nickel slot machines. I've won a couple times, $15.
DeleteI have no skills at blackjack, so I'd need a .05 table.
Never heard of magic formula investing's site. Hum. I did something on Zacks and have been receiving a lot of recommendations since. But I tend not to open those.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/10/aep-aiv-ajxa-exc-hbnc-igr-ing-jpm-k-ntb.html