Economy:
Britain and European Union strike last-minute post-Brexit trade deal
Personal income decreased 1.1% in November with consumer spending falling .4%.
U.S. GDP Q3 2020 final reading With a $3T stimulus and a super accommodative FED monetary policy, the final reading for third quarter GDP growth was estimated at a 33.4% annualized rate. The 2nd quarter contraction was at a 31.4% annualized rate. GDP was 3.5% below the 2019 4th quarter number. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
New-home sales fall as buyers begin to get cold feet in an expensive market - MarketWatch (11% below the downwardly revised October number)
 |
| U.S. Census Bureau-November New Single Family Homes Sales |
Covid relief bill extends and enhances unemployment benefits; Second stimulus package: See what's in it; Income limits to be eligible for second stimulus check Trump took no interest in this stimulus bill. He waited until after the Senate and House passed the law to demand changes.Covid stimulus update: Trump threat could force shutdown, unemployment lapse (12/23/20) I believe that Trump is just trying to burn the house down and to embarrass Senate republicans, particularly McConnell, for finally recognizing Biden as President-Elect. Friction between Trump, GOP amid election claims and COVID relief efforts: USA Today
Funding for the government is linked to the stimulus bill. If Trump does not sign before next Tuesday, the government will have to shut down.
Trump: "I’m also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation and to send me a suitable bill or else the next administration will have to deliver a COVID relief package, and maybe that administration will be me, and we will get it done." (emphasis added) Donald Trump Video Speech Transcript on COVID Relief Bill December 22 - Rev.
(Trump's criticisms about specific spending items were not part of the stimulus package but were part of the separate government funding legislation.)
Chicago Fed's November national activity index points to slowdown - MarketWatch; Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
U.S. consumer confidence tumbles in December - MarketWatch (December index at 88.6, down from 92.9 in November)
Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected, but hold above 800,000 at 803
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Markets and Market Commentary:
The 'single greatest risk' facing Americans could hit within a decade, billionaire investor warns - MarketWatch Same Zell thinks the USD will lose its reserve currency status within 10 to 15 years provided the U.S. continues along its current path which is almost a 100% certainty that it will.
Do record-low interest rates justify the stock market’s overvaluation? Here’s the answer - MarketWatch Mark Hulbert says no. The best historical predictor of inflation adjusted stock market returns over the next ten years has been Market Cap to GDP, the Buffett valuation measure. Using this valuation measure, currently at the most bearish level since 1950, "the S&P 500’s projected 10-year inflation-adjusted total return is minus 9.3% annualized. Upon including real interest rates in the model, the projection worsens to minus 10.4%."
Market Cap to GDP Ratio - The Buffett Indicator - Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends In August 1982, when an 18 year bull run in stocks started, this valuation indicator was at .334. The ratio is now at 1.89.
(Note: I am continuing to link Marketwatch articles that may be behind a paywall now. Marketwatch has started a subscription model for its site. For whatever reason, the paywall is not impacting my access so far, except on a limited basis, probably due to my Barron's subscription. Barron's and Marketwatch share common ownership. The bottom line is that I do not know which articles are behind the paywall for non-Barron's subscribers)
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Special Distribution of $0.10 per Share
Why Synaptics Is One Analyst’s Top 2021 Pick | Barron's The analyst is from Needham who has a $130PT.
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Covid-19 Updates:
Covid remains "under control" in TrumpWorld.
 |
| As of 12/24/20 |
In Trump's America, a person who dies from complications caused by Covid did not die from Covid, so there were zero deaths last week in TrumpWorld.
US coronavirus deaths are projected to reach 567,000 by April, even amid vaccine rollout
The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly. Here's what they know
New Covid strain makes UK a global pariah amid travel bans (12/20/20)
I have not seen any evidence that the new strains are more deadly or resistant to the vaccines.
How Trump’s denial and mismanagement led to the covid pandemic’s dark winter - Washington Post; republished at MSN: The inside story of how Trump’s denial, mismanagement and magical thinking led to the pandemic’s dark winter
A person who went to work while sick is likely the cause of two separate Covid-19 outbreaks in Oregon ("One of those outbreaks has resulted in seven deaths, and the other recent outbreak has placed over 300 people/families in quarantine.")
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Dictator -Want-To-Be Don:
In a fit of rage and petty vindictiveness, Don the Authoritarian is in a burn the house down on his way out mode.
Part of the Mad King's pique and rage is directed at senate republicans who have refused so far in going along with his effort to cancel the election results.
Heated Oval Office meeting included talk of special counsel, martial law as Trump advisers clash
Fired attorney Sidney Powell is back, advising Trump to chart a scorched-earth course - ABC News
Trump Discussed Naming Sidney Powell as Special Counsel on Election Fraud - The New York Times ("In recent days Mr. Giuliani has sought to have the Department of Homeland Security join the campaign’s efforts to overturn Mr. Trump’s loss in the election. . ." General Flynn was present. "During an appearance on the conservative Newsmax channel this week, Mr. Flynn pushed for Mr. Trump to impose martial law and deploy the military to “rerun” the election. At one point in the meeting on Friday, Mr. Trump asked about that idea.")
Donald wants Pence to unilaterally reject the results in 6 states that Biden was certified as winning when Congress meets on 1/6/2021. Frustrated Trump met with Pence before holiday break
The Constitution provides that the Vice President opens the envelopes containing the certified election results and then the "Votes shall then be counted." Article II, Section 1 There is no leeway in the Constitution for the VP to reject the electors chosen by the certified election results. If there was discretion, the V-P's party would remain in power forever and elections choosing the President and Vice President would no longer be necessary. Dictator-Want-To-Be Don wants Pence to count only the alternate slate of republican electors and to ignore the certified election results in those states.
The Vice President's role on 1/6/21 is just a formality. Gore was the VP when Bush Jr. beat him in 2000. He tabulated the elector votes that resulted in his own loss. Nixon was the V-P when he was beaten in 1960 by Kennedy and he did the same.
Trump downplays impact of hack, questions whether Russia involved | TheHill Donald believes that the media is playing up this major hack event just to hurt him. It is, as always, all about Donald and nothing else.
Delusional Don had this say about the hack:
Is Donald Putin's puppy? There is no direct proof. I agree with Dan Coates, Trump's former Director of National Intelligence and republican senator from Indiana, that the best way to explain Trump's actions and words is by assuming Russia has kompromat on him. Woodward book: Former intel chief Dan Coats believed "Putin had something on Trump" - Axios
In Last Rush, Trump Grants Mining and Energy Firms Access to Public Lands - The New York Times
Donald Trump is still only out for himself Trump is a sociopath. 'Sociopath,' 'clown': 8 unflattering anecdotes from Mary Trump's book; The Psychology of Donald Trump | Psychology Today Over 74+ Americans voted for an lying sociopath with strong authoritarian tendencies who has done more damage to American democracy than any foreign adversary could dream of doing. IMO, those traits are obvious. That needs to be remembered in future elections since those people are not going to change.
Trump Is Losing His Mind - The Atlantic Donald became a sociopath a long time ago IMO. Arguably, he was high functioning sociopath during most of his adult life but that is no longer the case as he has become increasingly detached from reality.
Audit in Michigan County Refutes Dominion Conspiracy Theory - FactCheck.org But facts are irrelevant in Trump's America and are per se false when they contradict a Trumpster reality creation.
Don the Authoritarian has filed another petition before the U.S. Supreme Court requesting that the court nullify Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots:
Trump wants Supreme Court to overturn Pennsylvania election results - POLITICO
Trump pardoned former republican congressmen convicted of federal crimes - The Washington Post The pardons included Duncan Hunter who plead guilty to misuse of campaign funds and Chris Collins who was convicted of securities fraud. Both were strong Trump supporters and were charged while serving in the House. Pardons are simply being handed out like candy to Trump cronies and allies. Hunter was slated to begin his 11 month sentence two weeks after Trump pardoned him. Trump is abusing the pardon authority in a way that demonstrates his corruption IMO and is consistent with my label of him as the All Time Swamp-Creature-In-Chief.
Donald was thinking about ordering Homeland Security to seize voting machines. William Barr: no need for special counsels to investigate election fraud, Hunter Biden - The Washington Post (Breaking with Trump, "Barr said Monday that he saw no basis for the federal government seizing voting machines and that he did not intend to appoint a special counsel to investigate allegations of voter fraud.")
Martial law, conspiracy theories rattle White House as Trump seeks to undo Biden win Republicans have now successfully branded themselves as a dominant strain pro-authoritarian, anti-democracy party.
The ‘Red Slime’ Lawsuit That Could Sink Right-Wing Media - The New York Times Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic may file libel cases against FOX, NewsMax, OAN and a number of individuals including Showboat Rudy and Sidney Powell.
Dominion Voting Systems machine company executive sues Trump allies for defamation; Dominion Voting Systems Security Director Files Defamation Suit Against Trump Campaign The defendants include Sidney Powell, the Trump Campaign, Giuliani, Chanel Rion (a "reporter at OAN), the Newsmax and OAN "news" networks, and the "Gateway Pundit".
PolitiFact | How Fox News, Newsmax vote-rigging coverage squares with defamation law
Of all of the people and organizations who have been sued or soon will be, Sidney Powell and Giuliani IMO are the most vulnerable.
Sidney Powell secret witness is Terpsichore Maras-Lindeman-The Washington Post; republished at MSN: Sidney Powell’s secret intelligence contractor witness is a pro-Trump podcaster; Sidney Powell’s secret ‘military intelligence expert,’ key to fraud claims in election lawsuits, never worked in military intelligence - The Washington Post; PolitiFact | Trump lawyer falsely claims voting technology companies were created for changing election results;
Trump threatens 30-day reign of destruction on the way out of office
Trump goes on rampage with pardons, veto threats and Covid denial
Why ‘Pivot Counties’ That Stuck With Trump May Be a Warning for Democrats - The New York Times (of the 206 counties that flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016, Biden won back only 25 of them.)
Trump vetoed the annual defense funding bill that passed Congress with bipartisan super majorities. Trump vetoes defense legislation-CBS News; Trump vetoes $740 billion NDAA defense bill; Trump vetoes defense bill, setting up potential override | TheHill; Trump vetoes $740 billion NDAA defense bill After vetoing the defense appropriation bill for reasons that have nothing to do with defense, and refusing to sign the stimulus bill, Donald left for a vacation at Mar-de-Lago and was last publicly seen playing golf. Trump goes golfing as stimulus, defense spending bills left in the lurch - MarketWatch
Initially, Donald threatened to veto defense funding because he wanted to keep the names of military bases named after confederate generals who fought against the U.S. over 165 years ago. He cited that reason to support his veto in thinly disguised wording. (Quote "provisions that fail to respect our veterans and our military's history.")
After receiving some push back, Donald then decided to add another reason recently. He argued that the defense bill needed to include a totally unrelated provision repealing section 230 of Communications Decency Act. Trump and other republicans are very upset that their fact free conspiracy theories, hate speech, and demonstrably false statements about the election and other matters, viewed as "conservative" speech by them, are being flagged as disputed by Twitter and Facebook.
Trump's veto is just another abuse of presidential power and another example, among thousands, that proves he is unfit to be President.
Historically, Trump's party has only 1 close antecedent in U.S. history IMO and that was the short lived Know Nothing which shared the modern day GOP's exuberant nativist, anti-immigration, xenophobic and demagogic populism traits.
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How Fox's Maria Bartiromo went from respected finance reporter to Trump apologist - The Washington Post Fox viewers expect to be told what they want to hear. With Donald receiving 74+ million votes, there is obviously a huge financial incentive for Fox to give them what they want.
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I have been using the most recent stock market rally to profitably sell some stocks that had been losers. ARESF is one of those stocks.
1. Eliminated ARESF in Schwab Account-Sold 280 at US$8.51:
Profit Snapshot: +$77.08
I restarted a position too soon after my last elimination.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I still own shares in my IB account that are priced in CADs.
Dividend: Monthly at C$.0435 effective for the January 2021 payment, up from C$.045.
Part of the total return problem was this REIT's ownership of properties in Canada's oil producing provinces that ultimately led to a dividend slash. The month rate was slashed to C$.045 from C$.09 effective for the November 2018 payment. Distribution History – Artis REIT
Next Ex Dividend: 12/29/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Third Quarter Results, Provides Business Update on the Impact of COVID-19 and Strategic Initiatives and Announces a 3% Distribution Increase
Estimated NAV per unit = C$15.35
Portfolio Occupancy: 91.6%
Sourced from Q3-20 Management's Discussion and Analysis.PDF This document has more comprehensive data than the press release.
Reset Equity Preferred Shares: I currently own 200 shares of AXPRA, a Canadian reset equity preferred stock traded in Toronto. Item # 2.A. Added to AXPRA-Bought 50 at C$17.48 (11/21/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to AXPPRA-Bought 50 at C$12.99 (5/16/20 Post) The current coupon is 5.662% paid on a C$25 par value. The coupon resets every 5 year at a 4.06% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond. The next reset is in September 2022, so the next five year coupon is likely to be lower. To equal the current coupon rate, the five year Canadian bond would have to be at 1.602% on the reset date. The expectation of a lower coupon rate for 5 years will depress the current price.
Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
2. Small Ball:
Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc.)
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase.
Sponsor's website: SRVR | Pacer ETFs
Expense Ratio: .6%
Number of Stocks: Just 24
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/18:
I currently own 1 Crown Castle 3.7% SU Maturing in 2026. Item # 3.C. Bought 1 Crown Castle 3.7% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/26 at a Total Cost of 96.424 (4/26/18 Post); Bond Detail; Prospectus Supplement
I have in the past owned DLR's common stock and preferred stocks.
Quotes for some of the top 10 holdings:
Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI)
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
With commission free trading, it would be cost effective to duplicate the top ten holdings of a sector ETF and avoid the annual expense ratio hit.
B. Pared CCNE-Sold 5 at $20.61 (highest cost lot this account):
Quote: CNB Financial Corp. (CCNE)
CNB Financial Corporation is a financial holding company with consolidated assets of approximately $4.7 billion. CNB Financial Corporation conducts business primarily through its principal subsidiary, CNB Bank. . . CNB Bank operations include a private banking division, one loan production office, one drive-up office and 44 full-service offices in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York. CNB Bank’s divisions include ERIEBANK, based in Erie, Pennsylvania, with offices in northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio; FCBank, based in Worthington, Ohio, with offices in central Ohio; and BankOnBuffalo, based in Buffalo, New York, with offices in northern New York. CNB Bank is headquartered in Clearfield, Pennsylvania, with offices in central and north central Pennsylvania.
Profit Snapshot: $26.79 (5 share 11/25 sell only):
Average Cost per share this Account after pare: $14.35 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17, last raised from $.165 effective for the 2018 third quarter. The $.165 penny rate was a raise from $.16 effective in 2008. CCNE is not a dividend growth stock. The dividend was not cut during the Near Depression period, which is the only positive comment that I have about this history.
Yield at AC this Account: 4.74%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Excluding after-tax merger costs, prepayment penalties and branch closure costs discussed below, net income was $11.6 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2020, compared to $10.4 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, for the same period in 2019, reflecting increases of $1.2 million, or 11.9%, and $0.02 per diluted share, or 2.9%."
"Efficiency ratio was 67.71% and 62.15% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively. Excluding after-tax merger costs, prepayment penalties and branch closure costs, the adjusted efficiency ratio was 56.54% and 57.66% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively, compared to 58.15% and 59.71% for the comparable periods in 2019."
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $18.58
NPA Ratio: .59% (.65% excluding PPP related assets)
Charge off ratio: .2%
Capital Ratios:
Loan Modification Information: This is still concerning at 5.6% of total loans as of 10/20/20. I decided to pare my inconsequential position in response down to just 10 shares.
Last Eliminated: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining CCNE-Sold 50 at $23.76 (2/17/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $618.1)-Item # 2 Bought 50 CCNE at $11.06 (6/30/2010 Post)
I recently bought a recently issued CCNE preferred stock. Item # 2.A. (10/31/20 Post); CNB Financial Corp. 7.125% Preferred Series A Stock I only bought 5 shares since the price was above par value.
C. Eliminated CCNE Schwab taxable-Sold 6 at $21.24:
Profit Snapshot: +$31.22
Rationale for Selling: (1) strong rally with shares now trading at a premium to net asset value per share; (2) a relatively high percentage of loans with principal and/or interest payments in deferral compared to other banks that I own; (3) relatively poor dividend history and (4) low dividend yield at the sell price compared to other banks that I own at their respective stock prices.
CCNE Trading Profits to Date: $1,085.4
D. Pared BDGE in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $23.8 (highest cost lot this account):
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
Profit Snapshot: $24.49 (5 share sell on 11/25 only):
Average Cost after Pare this account: $17.82
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 ($.96 annually)
The dividend was last raised from $.23 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. The $.23 per share rate had been in effect since 2005. The only positive about that history is that the rate was not cut during the Near Depression period, remaining at $.23 per share during 2008-2010.
Yield at $17.82 AC = 5.39%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/20
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.K. Added to BDGE-Bought 2 at $17.45; 2 at $17.2; 2 at $17.03 and 1 at $16.8 (10/17/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Excluding merger expenses, adjusted net income was $15.4 million, or $0.77 per diluted share." BDGE is in the process of acquiring Dime Community Bancshares.
"Total remaining loan payment deferrals at October 25, 2020 were $44 million, or 1.0%, of total loans held for investment.".
BDGE Profits to Date: $2,775.77
E. Pared RIGL-Sold 50 at $3.06:
Remaining Shares: 100 at a $1.71 total cost; Item # 5.A. Bought 100 RIGL at $1.71 (10/2/2019 Post)
 |
| As of the Close on 12/24/20 |
Page-27 28 RIGL 10-Q
That drug has been approved by the FDA for treating "adult patients with chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) who have had an insufficient response to a previous treatment. ITP is a rare autoimmune disease where the body’s own immune system attacks and destroys platelets in the blood." Products - Rigel Pharmaceuticals
TAVALISSE is the brand name for fostamatinib. This drug is currently in a Phase 2 trial for the treatment of hospitalized Covid patients. Rigel Announces First Patients Enrolled in NIH/NHLBI-Sponsored Trial of Fostamatinib in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Collaboration with Inova; Rigel Announces Investigator-Sponsored Trial of Fostamatinib in Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia
License agreements for fostamatinib outside the U.S. are described at pages 18-20 of the 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20
Last Financial Report (9/30/20): Rigel Reports Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Provides Business Update I would not anticipate a GAAP profit anytime soon unless the COVID trials prove that fostamatinib is effective in treating hospitalized Covid patients.
Other Recent News:
Rigel Announces Availability of TAVLESSE® (Fostamatinib Disodium Hexahydrate) in Europe (7/9/20)
Only Prior Round-Trip (150 Shares): $109.24
F. Pared CSCO in Fidelity Account-Sold 3 at $42.8 (highest cost lots):
New average cost per share this account: $39.28
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Yield at $39.28 AC = 3.67%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/1/2020
I discussed the second quarter earnings report here: Item # 1.H. (9/13/2020)(contains snapshots of prior trades ($919.37) starting in 2010 and prior to 2020); SEC Filed News Release
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 10/24/20-First Fiscal Quarter): SEC Filed Press Release
My classification of "borderline" contrarian value is based on recent Y-O-Y revenue and E.P.S. declines and the uncertainty as to when sustainable growth will return:
G. Started MO-Bought 5 at $39.79:
Quote: Altria Group Inc
Stock Information as of 12/24/20:
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
5 Year Financials:
The 2019 results were impacted by a charge related to Altria's investment in JUUL. MO vastly overpaid for its 35% ownership interest in JUUL.
The company also overpaid for its U.S. Smokeless Tobacco acquisition in 2009, financing the transaction by incurring $7 billion in new debt with 10% coupons. That acquisition included the Copenhagen and Skoal brands.
Altria has a 10.2% ownership interest in Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR.
Altria Announces Increased Ownership of Anheuser-Busch InBev (10/21/16); Altria Becomes Significant Shareholder in Anheuser-Busch InBev; Revises 2016 Full-Year Earnings Guidance (10/11/16)
In 2019, Altria acquired a 45% ownership interest in Cronos Group Inc. (CRON), with an option to add another 10%.
Altria also owns the STE Michelle Wine brands.
Cigarette smoking in the U.S. is in a long term secular decline. Altria operates solely in the U.S. Philip Morris International Inc. (MO) owning the brands outside of the U.S.
5 Year Chart: Ugly
Yield at $39.79: 10.49%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/24/20 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Altria took a $4.5B writedown of its $12.8B JUUL investment in the 2019 3rd quarter. Altria writes down Juul investment by $4.5 billion (10/31/19) A $4.1B writedown occurred in the 2019 4th quarter. Altria Takes $4.1B Writedown on Juul Investment - CFO
Altria has written down its recent $2.8B investment to $1.6B as of 9/30/20. Altria Loss Narrows in 3Q, Writes Down Juul | Morningstar
H. Pared GDO (Fidelity Taxable)-Sold 5 at $18 (part of highest cost lot):
Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)
This CEF is currently scheduled to liquidate on or about 12/2/2024.
Profit Snapshot: $6.1 (12/1 sell only):
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $15.28
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.212 annually)
Yield at $15.28 AC = 7.93%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/22/20
Next Ex Dividend Date: 1/21/2021
Data Date of 12/1/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $18.78
Closing Market Price: $18.04
Discount: -3.94%
Sourced: GDO CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains prior round trip trade snapshots)
Other Recent Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added 35 GDO at $16.78; 5 at $15.6: 5 at $14.34; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.4 (4/11/20 Post)
I. Restarted AKBA-Bought 10 at $3.18; 5 at $3; 5 at 2.9:
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
Closing Price AKBA $2.92 -$0.06 -2.01%
Website: Akebia | Pioneering Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF) Therapies
"Investment" Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 105 AKBA at $6.35(1/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $135.66 net); Item # 4.A. Sold 30 AKBA at $15.27 (8/22/17 Post)(profit snapshot $183.03)
AKBA Realized Net Gain to Date: $316.69
As I recall, investors had a negative response to the AKBA's 2018 acquisition of Keryx Pharmaceuticals, which at least gave Akebia an approved drug, Auryxia, to sell. When I discussed that drug after Keryx reported its 2018 second quarter results, Auryxia product sales were reported at $24.1M, up from $14.1M in the 2017 second quarter. "Net product revenue for Auryxia® (ferric citrate) was $34.4 million for the third quarter of 2020 compared with $30.0 million in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 14.6 percent."
Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals to Merge, Creating a Fully Integrated Company Focused on the Development and Commercialization of Therapeutics for Patients with Kidney Disease The merger was completed on 12/12/18.
The main problems IMO are the extremely slow process in bringing Akebia's main drug, Vadadustat for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease in adult patients, to market; the recent failure of that drug to meet its primary safety endpoint for patients not on dialysis; and the continued stock offerings to finance the ongoing trials. The drug did meet is primary and secondary endpoints for patients on dialysis.
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock (5/11/20)(11M shares at $12 + standard greenshoe); Akebia Therapeutics Announces Full Exercise of Underwriters' Option to Purchase Additional Shares
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Top-Line Results from its PRO2TECT Global Phase 3 Program of Vadadustat for Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease in Adult Patients Not on Dialysis (9/3/20) The stock priced closed at $10 on 9/2 and at $2.65 on 9/3. AKBA Price History Volume skyrocketed to 81.4202M shares on 9/3.
This press release looks like an effort to downplay the safety result in patients who are not on dialysis. Akebia Presents Results from its PRO2TECT Global Phase 3 Program of Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia due to Chronic Kidney Disease in Adult Patients Not on Dialysis (10/23/20) ("The newly presented pre-specified analyses of PRO2TECT showed that vadadustat had no clinically meaningful increase in cardiovascular risk in U.S. patients not on dialysis treated to a target hemoglobin range of 10 to 11 g/dL, consistent with U.S. treatment guidelines.") I do not have the qualification to assess the medical importance which is one reason for the LOTTO classification. The announcement did not change the Stock's Jock's opinion about what this company is worth.
That drug was finally approved in Japan. Akebia Therapeutics Announces First Commercial Launch of VAFSEO™ (vadadustat tablets), a New Oral Treatment for Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease, in Japan
The company plans to file a new drug application with the FDA as early as possible in 2021. The NDA would be only for patients suffering from anemia due to CKD that are on dialysis. The question is whether the safety data for patients not on dialysis will negatively impact the FDA decision. Without approval in the U.S., this looks like a $1 stock to me.
The current stock price IMO reflects doubts that the FDA will approve Vadadustat for patients on dialysis. I am betting a few dollars that those doubts are misplaced.
5 Year Chart:
Last "Earnings" Report (Q/E 9/30/20): Akebia Reports Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Recent Business Updates
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (collaboration agreements summarized starting at page 20)
J. Sold 1 DISCA at $27.55:
Profit Snapshot: +$4.74
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $21.17 (10 shares)
Discovery to launch streaming service in January for $4.99 per month I do not foresee this late entry as being successful.
K. Eliminated DISCA in Schwab Account-Sold 7 at $28.31:
See Item # 1.H. above.
Profit Snapshot: +$45.83
L. Pared CXP-Sold 5 at $14.43 (highest cost lot Fidelity Taxable):
Quote: Columbia Property Trust Inc
Closing Price 12/24: CXP +$14.36 +$0.10 +0.70%
SEC Filed November 2020 Investor Presentation
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute
Profit Snapshot: $8.15 (12/2 sell only)
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $11.56
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Columbia Property Trust Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend
Yield at $11.56 AC this account: 7.27%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
Last Buy Discussion this Account: Item # 1.B. Added to CXP-Bought 10 at $12.12; 10 at $11.57; 5 at $11.27; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.5 (9/26/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.O. Pared CXP-Sold 15 at $13.96-highest cost lots in Fidelity Account (11/21/20 Post) I discussed the third quarter report in that post and have nothing to add here.
M. Pared OFS in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $7.2:
Quote: OFS Capital Corp-A BDC
2019 Annual Report (risk factor discussion starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
Profit Snapshot: $56.8 (12/3 sell only):
Average Cost Remaining Shares this Account: $4
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)
The dividend was cut from $.34 to $.17 effective for the 2020 second quarter and then raised by 1 cent effective for the 4th quarter.
Yield at AC of $4 in this account: 18%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/23/20
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.L. Added 5 OFS at $3.97-Fidelity Taxable (11/28/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): OFS Capital Corporation Announces Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results & Increases Quarterly Cash Distribution I discussed the earnings report in a comment.
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments
OFS Trading Profits To Date: $205.44
Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04(11/30/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
N. Pared BRKL-Sold 3 at $12.06 (part of highest cost lot):
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share ($.46 annually)
Brookline Bancorp, Inc Dividend History | Nasdaq
The quarterly penny rate was last raised from $.11 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.
Yield at $9.17: 5.02%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/12/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"net income of $18.7 million, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020, compared to $19.6 million, or $0.25 per basic and diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020, and $22.6 million, or $0.28 per basic and diluted share, for the third quarter of 2019."
On January 1, 2020, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13 "Financial Instruments-Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments", commonly referred to as CECL.
O. Eliminated DDD-Sold 15 at $10.67:
Quote: 3D Systems Corp.
Profit: +$71.04 (44.39% return)
I had all of the fun that I could stand with this Lotto.
Website: 3D Printers, Software, Manufacturing & Digital Healthcare
Summary of Businesses: 2019 Annual Report pp. 26-28
3. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks-Fixed to Floating Rate Non-Cumulative:
A. Bought 10 TECTP at $8.59:
Quote: Tectonic Financial Inc. 9% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Preferred Series B Stock
I may end up regretting coming across this security.
There is almost no volume in this security. The bid/ask spread is usually wide.
Closing Price 12/24/20: TECTP $8.68 -$0.02 -0.23%
The issuer is Tectonic Financial, a private bank holding company based in Texas who has filed its financial results starting with the issuance of this publicly traded preferred stock. SEC Filings; Investor Relations | T Bank
Security: Prospectus
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred, senior only to common stock.
Par Value: $10
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and qualified
Coupon: Currently at 9%
Current Yield at $8.59 = 10.48%
Last Ex Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share on 11/5/20
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 5/15/24
Floating Rate: If not redeemed, the coupon will transition from the 9% fixed coupon rate to a floating rate based on a 6.72% spread to the 3 month Libor rate.
Since the Libor rate is not likely to be around in 2024, there is a provision in the prospectus for using an alternative short term rate (pages 168-169).
The largest holder of this preferred stock is the CEF John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO) with a 186,240 share position or 12.46% based on its last SEC report. I have owned BTO in the past but do not have a current position.
The common stock is owned by a few individuals. SEC Schedule 13D
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20: 10-Q
 |
| Snapshot Includes 2 Partial Redemptions/$84.4 from the 12/21 |
 |
| 15 Shares Average Cost = $17.26/ Yield at 11.95% |
 |
| 20 Shares Average Cost = $22.05/ Yield at 9.35% |
So Trump's going to get reelected, and THEN will fix the lack of stimulus... by stopping the stimulus ... then by removing fat from a bill passed the same day that has veto override votes.
ReplyDeleteAll while he counts his toes?
I can't guess what this will do to this market. Reality is that this stimulus that's not considered enough, will pass by Jan 23rd. With possible larger known to be coming on Jan 5 (or not).
Trump's playing a combo head game, vengeance at all of USA for not loving him back into office, and some backhanded thing about stalling stimulus that I don't know. I'm gut says he'll sign this after toying with everyone for a while. Then claim himself the rescuer.
Land: I suspect Donald will sign the stimulus bill and the attached government funding bill before Tuesday. A failure to sign will IMO make it slightly more likely that the GOP will lose both Georgia senate races. The races are too close to call at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/
Trump is in a burn down the house on his way out mode, so almost any imaginable nihilistic and destructive act is possible until Biden's inauguration and possibly for a brief period thereafter.
I doubt that Donald will attend Biden's inauguration. I would not be surprised to see him hold a campaign event that day, airing his false claims and grievances, declaring the Biden presidency as unlawful and possibly announcing his candidacy for President in 2024.
I forgot to check off the notify button so missed this.
DeleteI can't tell what Trump's thinking so can't guess what he'll do. I think signing is more likely than not because he's backed down every other time he's played one of these chicken games. In this case no one can figure out who he's playing chicken with.
My hope is that media will stop trying to sell us him, but not covering whatever attention seeking maneuvers are next. I won't watch the inauguration. It's like watching one of those red carpet TV events but without the award announcements.
Last Thursday, there was some unusual activity in the closed end fund DPG:
ReplyDeleteDuff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc. (DPG)
$12.03 +$0.74 (+6.55%)
At close: December 24 1:00PM EST
Volume 1,104,414
Avg. Volume 166,022
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DPG?p=DPG&.tsrc=fin-srch
I sold a few shares into that spike and currently own close to 400 shares. I did not see any news. The fund went ex dividend earlier this month for its $.35 per share quarterly dividend.
This kind of price/volume movement is sometimes caused by an activist taking a large stake.
Sponsor's website:
https://www.dpimc.com/investment-strategies/duff-phelps-utility-and-infrastructure-fund-inc
+++
I have loosened my standards in what I am willing to buy. Normally, MO would not be on my radar screen for a possible purchase given the multitude of serious issues.
I am also returning to some stocks previously sold at lower prices, something that I really do not want to do.
I would be okay, for example, buying 100 shares of UL around $45, but the market is not going to give me that price.
I sold my last lot at $52.63:
Item #1.A. Sold 70 UL at $52.625-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/12/observations-and-sample-of-recent_23.html
That lot had been bought at $18.05 in March 2009.
About all that I could muster now was a 5 share buy at $57.78, which I will discuss in my next post.
Unilever PLC ADR (UL)
$58.68 +$0.29 +0.50%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ul
UL is the ADR for Unilever PLC based in the U.K.
Currently, the U.K. does not withhold a tax on dividend payments.
Unilever NV, based in Amsterdam, has been consolidated with the U.K. corporation so the ADR UN no longer trades.
https://www.unilever.com/investor-relations/understanding-unilever/unification/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20Unilever%20unified%20its,better%20positioned%20for%20future%20success.
++
If Donald does not sign the stimulus and funding bills before Tuesday, I would assume that Congress would pass another temporary funding bill to keep the government open until Biden can sign both pieces of legislation.
A vote is scheduled for next week to override the jerk's veto of the defense spending bill. To override the veto, a 2/3rds majority in both the Senate and House are necessary. The House override vote will occur on Monday.
The two democrats in the Georgia senate race have both raised more than $100M over the past 2 months according to recent filings that cover the period from 10/15 to 12/16.
"Nearly half of the campaign haul for the two Democratic candidates came from people donating less than $200."
"Two other major super PACs supporting Democrats in the race, Georgia Honor and Georgia Way, have spent $28 million on the race since the general election, according to FEC reports."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/georgia-runoffs-fundraising/2020/12/25/e6d9c4f4-451c-11eb-a277-49a6d1f9dff1_story.html
For those two senate seats, $468M or thereabouts have been spent on ad buys by campaigns and outside groups.
Donald has done a good job energizing both the republicans and the democrats.
So is anyone better off or more informed with accurate information after that spending, particularly compared to using the same money to fund food banks nationwide? Negative ads are frequently false or misleading.
You're starting to chase. In an ultra minimalist kind of way. I don't chase well, but would have been better off for a long time now.
DeleteI thought I heard or read that Congress can pass a stop gap without a problem. So the gov't isn't shutting down. The defense bill will be overridden.
I didn't anticipate... the proper place to invest for the last year was in advertising companies.
---
I read a SA article this morning, didn't notice by whom. The title got my attention. Turned out it was FG's.
He's bullish on the next year or two, on the recovery when the economy is back at full steam. He says nothing about selling. However, he slips in that it's natural for pullbacks after so much run. He's trying to de-panic investors should such a natural occurrence occur. I suspect he expects one but has no clear sense of timing so he's talking more between the lines about it.
He didn't sound wildly optimistic. He usually does. So I didn't realize it was his. Until I got to a formatted area that was clear. His point is all summer, and now again, the market is riding above the 20 day. It's not going to show signs of pullback, until it at least manages to close below.
He pointed to the lack of commissions as a factor. No one talks about that. He's looking that if there is an upset to the bull flow for the economy, it will be if Biden does something problematic with policy to upset the ongoing policy that's been working in spite of a pandemic. I'd take Biden out of that sentence, but otherwise it's a valid way to look for a next catalyst.
The upside catalysts are many as recovery and vaccines happen. (my stn't)
Land: Funding for the government is currently being provided by a stop gap measure which expires on Monday. Trump needs to sign those and he is becoming crazier by the day.
DeleteI am not sure whether "ultra minimalist" does justice to my 5 share buys. Maybe "super duper ultra small minimalist" would be a more accurate description.
For a stock like Unilever, my comfort zone is around 15 times current year E.P.S.
Marketwatch has the average analyst estimated 2020 E.P.S. number at $3, so 15 times would be the $45 that I referenced in the previous comment.
The market is not going to give me that price without a serious stock market meltdown. The price did temporarily dip below $45 on 3/23/20.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UL/history?p=UL
The S & P 500 closed that day at 2,237.40.
My quandary is what to do with cash piling up in market market accounts paying .01% when I view the stock market as overvalued and bonds totally unattractive.
For the most part, I am not chasing. I do find it difficult to buy a stock that is outside of my valuation comfort zone established over many decades and firmly rooted in my psyche.
Whenever the stock market reaches into bubble territory, there will always be a chorus justifying the valuations. That has always been the case.
When there are alternatives to risk assets, like there were in 2000, then I would buy them and eliminate stocks altogether.
For example, in November 2000, the 3 month treasury bill was yielding over 6% but is now at .09%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3MO
By eliminating risk free alternatives as viable investments, and creating an abundance of money with no place to go in the real economy, the FED and other central banks have created a bubble in both stocks and bonds.
The same bubble creation dynamic was at work in 2000-2007 as limitless amounts of money were made available to anyone willing to buy a house regardless of the price.
There are currently no risk free alternatives that can generate a positive real return before the tax bite.
So, in response to that unfavorable risk/reward balance for risk assets, and taking into account the FED will continue its Jihad Against the Saving Class for an extended period, I still have a meaningful stock portfolio; but I am trying to control risks as much as possible while maintaining the percentage allocation in the 5% to 10% range. I am getting enough upside action with that allocation.
Maybe "super duper ultra small minimalist"(-Squared)
DeleteWhile things are definitely bubbled up, the cause of the bubble remains in place.
Same as housing didn't burst until someone noticed the additional cheating the ultra lax standards enticed.
Where's the cheating here? (Besides Donald et al.) This could be a key question - that will point to what to keep an eye on for timing.
This is part of the market (I'm saying to myself). At times being in or betting on it, is about going with the unreasonable because the bubble doesn't have reason to burst. Of course if a black swan gets at it, the fall will be much worse than from reasonable prices.
I haven't heard justification of these values. There's awareness that it's high. The justifications are all around the low interest rates and stimulus. Well, I guess that counts as justification of values - but only as a "until when."
It's quite odd and different than usual bubbles and exuberance. This is so built on "can't miss out" and betting, not for as many investors, on unrealistic assessments of the underlying stocks.
Futures aren't particularly worried about the gov't shutting down. I don't want to put on the news to find out what Donald's latest poor behavior is.
Edited:
DeleteIt's quite odd and different than usual bubbles and exuberance. This is to such a large extent, built on "can't miss out" and betting. For many investors it's not built on unrealistic assessments of the underlying stocks.
Land: Donald signed the stimulus and government funding bills. The House will vote today on raising the stimulus check amount from $600 to $2,000. The Democrats will vote for it, but I doubt that McConnell will even allow a vote in the Senate.
Delete++
The following factors are causing a rise in stock prices IMO:
1. vast amounts of central bank created money that is not needed in the real economy.
M2 money supply is a broad measure of money:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed49.html
2. Interest rates and inflation are currently abnormally low compared to historical levels and, more importantly, are expected to remain so for a long time as the new normal.
3. Earnings have generally been better than anticipated given the headwinds from the pandemic.
4. Fiscal stimulus has been enormous, off the charts huge, far larger than the government's response to the Near Depression. Remember that almost every republican voted against Obama's stimulus bill which was about 1/5th the size of what they voted for this year, and the economic crisis was then far worse than now.
5. Momentum remains to the upside. Stocks are going up because stocks have been going up and concerns about losing money in stocks are practically non-existent except for an Old Geezer like myself.
All of those are still active so no reason to fallback.
DeleteThe House did approve a $2,000 stimulus check by a vote of 275 to 134 with 44 republicans supporting this increase. The bill was passed using a fast-track procedure that required a 2/3rds majority.
DeleteSenator Schumer (D-NY) claimed that all democrat senators will vote in favor.
I doubt that Mitch McConnell will permit a vote in the Senate since he does not want republican senators on record opposing it.
The House also voted to override Trump's veto of the defense funding legislation.
Jack Reed (D)had this to say about Trump's veto:
“From Confederate base names to social media liability provisions … to imaginary and easily refutable charges about China, it’s hard to keep track of President Trump’s unprincipled, irrational excuses for vetoing this bipartisan bill.”
+++
I continued my 5 share buys today, though I was mostly focused on stock CEFs that I previously sold.
I have always found this one interesting:
Central Securities Corp.
$32.06 +$0.34 +1.07%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/cet
The interesting part has nothing to do with CET's publicly traded stock investments, but a $710,600 investment in a private company called Plymouth Rock made in 1982, valued at $206.074 million as of 9/30/20.
CET places the value using the metrics explained in this SEC filing near the end:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18748/000138713120009812/cet-nportex_093020.htm
Note that CET received $14,163,111 in dividend from Plymouth Rock over the first nine months of 2020.
So that one worked out.
I will get around discussing this purchase at $32.03, probably in mid-to-late January.
CET did sell 6,000 shares back in 2015 which reduced its share position to 28,424 or about 23% of the shares outstanding. Another 35,000 Plymouth shares were sold in 2013.
The annual capital gain and income distributions for this year have already been paid. The total was $1.5 per share.
http://www.centralsecurities.com/dividends.cfm
CEF-Connect Page:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/CET
CET like ADX had its IPO shortly before the 1929 crash.
http://www.centralsecurities.com/
I have bought and sold and currently own only the 5 shares bought today.
My last buy discussion can be found in Item #1 Bought 100 CET at $19.68:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4891051-update-for-cef-basket-strategy-of-6-15-16
TransAlta Renewables Inc.
ReplyDeleteC$20.75 +C$1.27 +6.52%
Last Updated: Dec 24, 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rnw?countrycode=ca
This pop was apparently in response to this new release:
"TransAlta Renewables Announces the Acquisition of 303 MW Portfolio including 274 MW of Wind from TransAlta Corporation"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/transalta-renewables-announces-the-acquisition-of-303-mw-portfolio-including-274-mw-of-wind-from-transalta-corporation-301198312.html
This announcement was made after the close on 12/23.
This stock also trades in the U.S. Grey Market under the symbol TRSWF:
TransAlta Renewables Inc.
US$16.24 +US$0.96 +6.30%
I have bought and sold the ordinary shares priced in CADs and USDs.
I currently own 200 shares, with 100 priced in CADs and the other 100 being TRSWF.
Item # 2. Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.89:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/06/bxmx-cswc-emp-fdn-onb-nwhuf-pdm-orcc.html
Item #1 Bought Back 100 RNW:CA at C$11.08 (C$ 1 Commission):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/bdnchn-fhn-gdo-good-maptx-mcdfx-mspra.html
I will only buy stocks traded on the U.S. Grey Market at Schwab where the USD price is displayed and I pay a zero commission. Limit orders have to be used.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/TRSWF/quote
Dividends are paid in CADs on a monthly basis.
https://www.transaltarenewables.com/investors/stock-information/dividend-information/
The bombing was near you? I just realized.
ReplyDeleteHeather Cox Richardson's article tonight, points to what all this not signing as been about. It's been a big distraction so that media's not focusing on what he really doesn't want passed.
ReplyDeleteCorporate Transparency Act that limits lack of transparency of shell corporation & stealing.
Hurting people who needed the check, was just a sign benefit.
"""The National Defense Authorization Act this year does something else, though, that seems to me of far more importance to the president than the naming of military bases.
It includes a measure known as the Corporate Transparency Act, which undercuts shell companies and money laundering in America. The act requires the owners of any company that is not otherwise overseen by the federal government (by filing taxes, for example, or through close regulation) to file a report that identifies each person associated with the company who either owns 25% or more of it or exercises substantial control over it. That report, including name, birthdate, address, and an identifying number, goes to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). The measure also increases penalties for money laundering and streamlines cooperation between banks and foreign law enforcement authorities.
America is currently the easiest place in the world for criminals to form an anonymous shell company which enables them to launder money, evade taxes, and engage in illegal payoff schemes. The measure will pull the rug out from both domestic and international criminals that take advantage of shell companies to hide from investigators. When the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists dug into leaked documents from FinCEN this fall, they discovered shell companies moving money for criminals operating out of Russia, China, Iran, and Syria.
Shell companies also mean that our political system is awash in secrecy. Social media giants like Facebook cannot determine who is buying political advertising. And, as Representative Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) noted, shell companies allow “foreign bad actors” to corrupt our system even more directly. “[I]t’s illegal for foreigners to contribute to our campaigns,” he reminded Congress in a speech for the bill, “but if you launder your money through a front company with anonymous ownership there is very little we can do to stop you.”
We know the Trump family uses shell companies: Trump’s fixer Michael Cohen used a shell company to pay off Stormy Daniels, and just this month we learned that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner approved a shell company that spent more than $600 million in campaign funds.
The new requirements in the NDAA apply not just to future entities, but also to existing ones.
Congress needs to repass the NDAA over Trump’s veto—indeed it is likely that the CTA was included in this measure precisely because the NDAA is must-pass legislation—and both the CTA and the NDAA bill into which is it tucked have bipartisan support. Trump has objected to a number of things in the original bill but has not publicly complained about the CTA in it. It will be interesting to see if Congress repasses this bill in its original form and, if not, what changes it makes.""
The rotation to big tech is just an odd choice off of stimulus. It sounds like investors are thinking "economy will do well, but we're going to be in massive shut down for longer" so they're picking shutdown winners.
ReplyDeleteDo you have a sense of why small caps took such a beating today?
ReplyDeleteLand: I would attribute the decline today to market dynamics. IWM had reason some 35% since late October. Profit taking would be normal.
DeleteThe IWM decline was 1.94% compared to SPY at -.19%.
Small cap value did better than growth with VBA falling -1.04%.
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
$140.52 -1.47 -1.04%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vbr
There may be some anxiety associated with the news that the more virulent strain has been confirmed in the U.S. The mutation was found in a man in his 20s who had no travel history, indicating that the spread is community based.
There is no doubt, as I said earlier, that this more virulent strain is spreading in the U.S. and around the world.
It is my understanding that most infected people do not the virus genetically sequenced and consequently the nation is flying blind on the number or locations of those have been infected by the new mutation.
In addition, while Trump and other administration officials represented that 20M Americans would be vaccinated in December, the actual number is currently close to 2M. At the current pace, it would take years to vaccinate everyone.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/30/covid-us-needs-to-vaccinate-3-million-people-per-day-to-hit-goal.html
2M? How many days till Biden?
DeleteI wonder when the new strains will reach general awareness. I heard that too, that we aren't sequencing much so we don't have the data other nations do.
Natural giveback. I can see that. I couldn't see any other reason.
I'm thinking some run up was over a stimulus but before it happened. Because that was the money play last time, but AFTER the stimulus happened, so, buying in advance this time. The exuberance is riding in front of this market wave like a road runner dust ball.
Value did better. Wouldn't have expected that.
If I'd managed to ride the various rides up, I'd be taking profits now. There should be at least a small bullback soon.
I need to do end of year thinking on selling for a loss. Though I think it's too late to move 401k to my Roth IRA.
Land: During the 2008 and early 2009 meltdown, I transferred everything out of a regular IRA into a Roth IRA. I started by selecting, as I recall, the most devastated in price securities in October 2008. The tax is based on the value when transferred from the regular IRA. After the transfer was completed, all of the securities recovered their pre-cash values while in the ROTH IRA. I discussed that strategy in 2008-2009 posts.
Delete++
As to the vaccinations, the manufacture and distribution were supposed to have been ramped up before FDA approval. So far, actually injecting people with the vaccine has been pathetic.
And, of the 2M vaccinated so far, they will need to receive their second shot soon.
Biden says he will invoke the the Defense Production Act to improve the rollout.
https://www.vox.com/2020/12/29/22204699/biden-vaccine-covid-19-delaware-defense-production-act-speech-trump-coronavirus-kamala-harris-dpa
My youngest nephew, who is in his 3rd year of medical school at Northwestern, has already received the PFE vaccine. Even though he is not yet a doctor, the hospitals in Chicago have enlisted 3rd and 4th year students in their Covid care efforts. His bride-to-be, who finished her 4th year with a dermatology speciality, also received the shot and is working in a hospital's Covid ward. So the hospitals are grabbing medical students, regardless of speciality, to assist in their Covid care operations.
The mutated case is making the news more. Wonder if it was that... or the 2pm news that McConnell isn't bringing the $2000 to a vote. Well just moderately curious which...
DeleteGood point that it's not a down time period to go a 401 to Roth.
Useful to know, but not good that later year students are being brought in. Glad they've gotten the vaccine (1x shot).
Chemours Co (CC)
ReplyDelete$25.62 +$0.83 +3.35%
Last Updated: Dec 30, 2020 at 9:46 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cc
I have started a small ball "buying program" in this bungee jumping chemical company.
While the stock has recovered from its March lows near $7, the stock was trading at $53+ in January 2018.
It will probably be late January before I discuss my purchases. I own 25 in my Fidelity account with 3 five share lots bought yesterday at $25.4; $24.8; and $24.3.
Average Analyst E.P.S. estimates
2020: $1.75
2021: $2.53
2022: $3.16
Highly cyclical companies like this one will generally be priced with below market P/E multiples.
The Stock Jocks have convinced themselves that worldwide growth will be robust for several years, gaining steam next year as the pandemic fades into a bad memory.
While that belief has filtered into stock prices for most sectors, it is at least debatable that this has not yet happened to the same extent among chemical and other basic material type companies. Another way to play that theme is with a material stock ETF like the .08% expense ratio Fidelity MSCI Materials Index ETF (FMAT) and I bought 5 shares yesterday:
$39.90 +$0.55 +1.40%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fmat
Last CC Earnings Report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627223/000156459020050012/cc-ex991_6.htm
"flagship products include prominent brands such as Teflon™, Ti-Pure™, Krytox™, Viton™, Opteon™, Freon™ and Nafion™."
I am not comfortable with the debt load.
CC was spun out of DuPont in 2015.
SEC Filings:
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1627223&owner=exclude
I am going to take a nap and eat. Then look at commodities. They are the new topic on what's not bought up yet. I don't know much about them (what stocks, or ETFs, factors). And end of year stuff.
DeleteIt feels like it's time for a pullback, some catalyst to trigger it. But FG index is at 50 neutral.
Land: An example of a beaten up stock in the materials sector is FCX, primarily a copper miner, which is the leading gainer so far today in the S & P 500:
DeleteFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
$26.44 +$1.72 +6.95%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fcx?mod=mw_quote_tab
I am rarely in commodity type stocks, but my standards for what I will consider buying now are at all time lows on pickiness.
Another buy was 10 shares of iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust, last trade at $12.18:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gsg
Sponsor's website:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239757/ishares-sp-gsci-commodityindexed-trust-fund#/
Down 25.12 YTD through yesterday.
$10K invested at July 2006 IPO now worth about $2,463, so that is not a chase.
The fact sheet (9/30/20) shows weightings at
Energy: 48.88%
Agriculture: 20.78%
Industrial Metals: 13.05%
Livestock: 8.41%
Precious Metals: 7.88%
My last purchase and elimination was in 2009. The sell was at $27.91.
Those were fun to look up. But they aren't making it into my portfolio.
DeleteFCX - up on something about selling a piece to China. With .75% div on no earnings. I've heard of them. They are slowly climbing for months now, so good that way.
GSCI - that list of % in sectors is helpful. I'm overweight energy so it's not the best add for my portfolio. The ishares listing is confusing. The holdings list is a bunch of treasury bonds. Not the various sector holdings?
I can't remember what the Lithium stocks were that one of the blog posters liked a lot. I'm going to look at them.....
This doesn't look very promising, LIT. It's practicing drawing a vertical line.
Deletehttps://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LIT&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
I am more ready now than I was went this opportunity started in march. Now I need opportunity again. That isn't it. Maybe if you're into shorting.
BATT ETF
Not back at it's highs but climbed a lot. As opposed to, skyrocketing past prior highs. 2.53% div, .72% fee.
https://www.marketwatch.com/invhttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/battesting/fund/batt
Telsa in top 10 holdings, turned out to be 6% of ETF. I can live with that.
"The BATT ETF is another way to the trade the EV boom, with exposure to lithium, cobalt, vanadium, graphite, and nickel for example."
https://investorplace.com/2020/12/5-lithium-stocks-charging-higher-into-2021-lit-batt-alb-lac-liacf/?mod=mw_quote_news
CC in the middle of one of it's jumps... gets high ratings from Zack & Zack's momentum score called VGM. The article says they've got a strong cash flow sheet. So debt is what they hopefully are bringing down.
Did it get debt by issuing bonds to pay down other debt (and not have it balance out in the fundamentals sheet yet)?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chemours-to-offer-750-million-of-bonds-2020-11-12?mod=mw_quote_news
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/makes-chemours-cc-stock-solid-125512863.html
I forgot about FMAT. That's climbed well above that it's been before.
DeleteSeems like the guru talk about rotation to commodities, is after the rotation's already happened in the ETFs.
Making a watch list of these!
LAND: FMAT would be a better option for most investors than trying to pick stocks in this sector.
DeleteFMAT has been doing better this year with a total return of 19.15%. The 3 year annual average total return is 6.68%, dragged down by a -17.29% return in 2018.
Relative performance has been subpar compared to the sectors leading the market.
QQQ for example is up 48.25% YTD with a 3 year annual average total return of 27.19%.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/qqq/performance
SPY is up 17.77% YTD with a 3 year annual average total return of 13.71.
So the ETF has underperformed on a relative basis.
The material sector stocks have done a lot better than funds tracking some commodity index.
The IShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) which I discussed earlier is down -24.61 YTD and has a 3 year annual average return of -9.12%.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/gsg/performance
GSG has been a place where money goes to die. A sustained rally in energy prices with an assist from some other commodities can make it a worthwhile trading vehicle but timing is at best difficult.
The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT), which I have owned with no current position, is too hot for me too handle now, up 129.07% YTD.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/lit/quote
The top holding in LIT is Albermale with a 12.18% weighting. FMAT owns the stock but the weighting is way down the list at 1.48%.
"GSG has been a place where money goes to die. " - that made me laugh.
DeleteLit is too hot for me. But I'm seriously considering buying BATT.
It's more basic - the minerals.
Have you owned it (BATT)?
I found this article useful as a general summary of top stocks in the field (describes Albermale, etc.):
https://investorplace.com/2020/12/5-lithium-stocks-charging-higher-into-2021-lit-batt-alb-lac-liacf/?mod=mw_quote_news
Underperforming at this point just means smaller big bubbles.
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My 401k is up 18-21%. That's not much compared to the market. 1/2 is in Russell 2000. I can trade to bonds. There is no cash option. Undecided. It feels like time to take profits. But the market may just keep climbing.
I don't have reason to do anything for taxes (now that I've thought it through.)
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I'm back to volunteering for database work for the canvassing. I feel less guilty now that I wasn't helping out. Still such a long shot in my opinion.
The 1st post in the recent ones showed up in email. The other posts of mind, are here, but not in email. The definition of intermittent bug.
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/01/arcc-bmy-eaf-fax-ivz-msgn-nmfc-oke.html