Saturday, January 16, 2021

AKBA, AT, CC, CET, BMY, DPG, EAF, FCBP, GAM, GLUU, GSK, NORW, TELNY, TRP, UCBI

Economy

U.S. retail sales December 2020 (-.7% vs. consensus at flat and November sales were revised to -1.5% from -1.1%) This report and many others are not consistent with the Stock Jock blue sky scenario being in place now. 

CPI rose .4% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month. The primary contributor was a surge in energy prices. Core CPI was only .1%. Consumer Price Index Summary On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was 1.4% last year with core CPI up 1.6%. 

Consumer inflation surges in December on higher gas prices, CPI finds - MarketWatch

Fed's Esther George cautions that inflation could rise faster than expected

The word "could" means almost nothing. Inflation could fall too. I could run around the block, which is true provided I pace myself, running 10 yards and then resting for 1 minute, but I am not likely to try.   

The unemployment rate is above 20% for the lowest-paid workers, Fed's Brainard says

New claims for unemployment insurance rose to 965,000 for the week ending 1/9/21. The consensus estimate was for 789K.  The surge is due to the worsening pandemic. 

Powell sees no interest rate hikes on the horizon as long as inflation stays low

Biden lays out $1.9 trillion Covid relief package with $1,400 stimulus checks If Biden tries to pass this bill outside of the budget reconciliation process (subjecting passage to the Senate's filibuster rule), he will likely fail. Joe Biden's Covid stimulus plan may face resistance in Congress 

Several provision in the proposal would probably not qualify for the budget reconciliation process (e.g. increase in the minimum wage to $15). Stimulus and Covid-19 vaccines: What Biden and a Democratic Senate can do without Republican support - Vox (article published before Biden released a narrower plan that did not include corporate tax increases which will probably be included later this year IMO with an effective date of 1/1/22) 

Up to 5 GOP senators may break with McConnell who will oppose this stimulus legislation, but 60 votes are necessary for cloture. What is the Senate filibuster, and what would it take to eliminate it? Even those republican will not support the $350 billion in emergency funding for state and local governments which is part of the proposed bill. 

The only way most of Biden's stimulus bill will pass is through the Senate's budget reconciliation process and that may take months.

+++++

Markets and Market Commentary

S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 1/15/20: 

TTM GAAP Earnings= 40.98

Non-GAAP Estimated Earnings next 12 months = 24.15 

S & P Dividend Yield: 1.56%

Sourced: P/E & Yields

Shiller PE Ratio = 34.26 CAPE Ratio Definition

Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends

Market Cap to GDP Ratio - The Buffett Indicator - Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends = 1.886 (previous peak at 1.321 in April 2000)

Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

Jeff Gundlach says stock market valuations are extraordinarily high, supported only by the Fed

With rates on the rise, investors fearing any signs of inflation

Holiday 2020 Target's same-store sales jump 17%, online sales double

Goldman Sachs says the S&P 500 will rise 14% in 2021. Here's the road map - MarketWatch

JPMorgan earnings Q4 2020 beat profit and revenue estimates

Value stocks are about to come out of their coma, says index fund powerhouse Vanguard - MarketWatch

+++

Covid Updates

The pandemic remains "under control" in TrumpWorld:  

As of 1/15/21



Timeline of Trump’s Coronavirus ResponsesSaluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic | The Daily Show - YouTube 

Experts warn of vaccine stumbles ‘out of the gate’ because Trump officials refused to consult with Biden team - The Washington Post

Covid-19 Infection Likely to Provide Immunity for at Least Five Months, Study Finds. What That Might Mean. | Barron's That is far from reassuring. 

Japan Covid variant: How it compares to strains in UK, South Africa

The virus finds a way to survive through a Darwinian process where variants that make it more contagious and possibly more deadly become the dominant strain. Coronavirus variant could become dominant strain by March, CDC warns The abysmal and grossly incompetent vaccine rollout in the U.S. has made it more likely that more Covid variants will emerge and possibly one that is resistant to the vaccines.  

Democratic lawmakers accuse maskless Republicans of spreading coronavirus during Capitol riot - The Washington PostOpinion | Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ): I got covid-19 because my Republican colleagues dismiss masks and facts - The Washington Post

After being evacuated to a small safe room after the Trump inspired riot, several GOP congressman (possibly all in the room) were offered masks to wear and refused of course to wear one. Video shows Republican members of Congress refuse to wear masks during Capitol insurrection The republican House members who defied House rules are as follows: Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Oklahoma Rep. Markwayne Mullin, Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs, Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry, Texas Rep. Michael Cloud and California Rep. Doug LaMalfa

Perry and LaMalfa are vulnerable in 2022. 

Ms. Greene is a QAnon True Believer who plans to file Articles of Impeachment against Joe Biden as soon as he becomes President. Georgia Republican plans to file articles of impeachment on President-elect Joe Biden | KUTV  

The vaccine rollout has been a disaster. 

++++

Dictator-Want-To-Be Demagogue Don and his Republican Enablers

Don the Authoritarian, who remains the leader of America's anti-democracy party, was impeached again for what he called "totally appropriate" actions and words that led to an assault on the U.S. capitol. Donald Trump becomes first president to be impeached twice Demagogue Don was previously impeached for his "perfect" phone conversation with Ukraine's President. 

10 republican House members decided to obey their oath of office, and joined all of the democrats to impeach Donald.  

In Trump's America, what Donald did was far less significant than lying about having sex with Monica (a Clinton lie that was initially based on the misbegotten distinction that oral sex was not sex). 

197 House republicans voted against impeachment. Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives - Vote Details   

Trump Attacks Pence for Not 'Having the Courage' to Overturn the ElectionMike Pence Reached His Limit With Trump. It Wasn’t Pretty. - The New York Times ("Mr. Trump was enraged that Mr. Pence was refusing to try to overturn the election. In a series of meetings, the president had pressed relentlessly, alternately cajoling and browbeating him.") In Trump's America, the incumbent republican V-P can cancel certified election results whenever the democrat candidates for President and Vice-President win. Among non-republicans, that is referred to as an autocracy. 

I thought it was B.S. when the minority leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), claimed that Donald took some responsibility for inciting the riot at the capitol. McCarthy says Trump accepted some responsibility for Capitol riot-POLITICO (1/11/2021). 

Donald stated clearly the next day that his comments that led to his followers assaulting the citadel of American democracy were "totally appropriate". Trump defends riot remarks as 'totally appropriate' before House vote on 25th Amendment resolution (Trump: "Everybody to a 'T' thought it was totally appropriate" which was given in response to a question whether he accepted any responsibility) 

Trump has never taken responsibility for any adverse consequences flowing from his actions or words, though he has frequently claimed undeserved credit for positive results and blamed anyone or anything for the bad consequences that he has caused.    

McCarthy was one of the leaders of the anti-democracy effort to reject the voters choice for President. He voted to reject the certified results from Arizona and Pennsylvania after the republican inspired riot disrupted the proceeding. And, he signed onto the Texas Supreme Court petition requesting the Court to throw out the election results in 4 states with republican controlled legislatures, where Biden was the certified winner and to sanction the republican controlled legislatures in those states to choose the electors rather than the voters. U.S. Supreme Court throws out Texas lawsuit contesting election results | The Texas Tribune   

Six hours of paralysis: Inside Trump's failure to act after a mob stormed the Capitol - The Washington Post-republished at MSN: Six hours of paralysis: Inside Trump’s failure to act after a mob stormed the Capitol

Armed DHS agents were on standby near Capitol riot but weren't deployed till too late

FBI report warned of 'war' at Capitol, contradicting claims there was no indication of looming violence - The Washington Post-republished at MSN: FBI report warned of ‘war’ at Capitol, contradicting claims there was no indication of looming violence Based on the number of warnings and the grossly inadequate security, it is reasonable to assume that some powerful people wanted to see a successful assault. 

How Republicans Fanned the Flames Before US Capitol Building Riot - The New York Times ("Even after the tear gas cleared and the Capitol was secured, more than 135 House Republicans, including the party’s two top leaders, ultimately voted to throw out millions of lawfully cast votes, fulfilling the rioters’ demands and answering Mr. Trump’s call for Congress to subvert the election results in his favor." 

Trump's voter fraud lies encouraged a riot. GOP allies are still giving them oxygen.

Almost all of those GOP House members could have joined the rioters and would still win reelection in 2022 IMO. List of Senate and House members objecting to election: All 147 Republican lawmakers challenging the count of electoral votes - Vox 

The exceptions IMO include these republicans: Steve Chabot (Ohio); Jeff Van Drew (NJ); Mike Garcia (CA); Carlos Gimenez (FL); Jim Hagedorn (MN); Yvette Herrell (NM); Darrel Issa (CA); Chris Jacobs (NY); Nicole Malliotakis (NY); Burgess Owens (UT); Scott Perry (PA); and Elise Stefanik (NY). Those republicans are beatable in 2022.  

Ali Alexander claims Reps. Biggs, Brooks, Gosar helped plan ‘Stop the Steal’ rally at Capitol - The Washington Post

Longtime Trump advisers connected to groups behind rally that led to Capitol attack - ABC News

Senator Murkowski (R-Alaska) blasts Trump's election claims, calls House impeachment appropriate | TheHill

PolitiFact | Fact-checking Trump's false claims about Pennsylvania's election Republican politicians echoed the false claims. PolitiFact | Fact-checking Hawley’s claim about Pennsylvania’s election law Hawley and hundreds of other other republican politicians became particularly incensed after Donald lost PA, claiming after the loss that a law passed by the republican dominated legislature in 2019 allowing no excuse mail-in voting was unconstitutional. No one challenged that bipartisan passed law until Trump lost and mail-in votes were cast in reliance thereon. Pennsylvania Supreme Court Rejects Republican Suit To Throw Out Mail-In Ballots NPRWhy Josh Hawley is getting blamed for the Capitol riots - The Washington Post 

PolitiFact | Fact-checking false claims about Pennsylvania and the presidential election

Pennsylvania GOP lawmakers fostered false election allegations that fueled Capitol riot

Joint Chiefs call riot a ‘direct assault’ on the constitutional process, affirm Biden as next commander in chiefREAD: Military Joint Chiefs condemn 'sedition and insurrection' at US Capitol 

The republicans have succeeded in turning the U.S. capitol into an armed fortress for Biden's inauguration, a first in U.S. history. 

Trump reportedly pressured elections investigator to overturn election, summarizing this WP article: Trump pressured a Georgia elections investigator in call legal experts say could amount to obstruction - The Washington Post This particular crime was committed more than a week before Trump demanded that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger “find” votes to "shift the count in his favor and made vague threats of criminal prosecution if refused". 

Trump says he won't attend Biden's inauguration After Nixon resigned, he did not attend the swearing in ceremony for Gerald Fold. No defeated candidate has skipped the inauguration of his successor since Andrew Johnson in 1868. 

Incitement to Riot? What Trump Told Supporters Before Mob Stormed Capitol - The New York Times There is enough there for impeachment. 

Confederate Battle Flag an Unnerving Sight in Capitol-The New York Times The confederate battle flag made its way deeper into the capitol on 1/6/2011 than he did during the Civil War. 

Opinion | How Trumpism May Endure-The New York Times The historical analogy is to Lost Cause mythology that gained preeminence in the south after the Civil War which, among other lasting impacts, led to confederate monuments being placed throughout the south and military bases being named after confederate generals. Lost Cause of the Confederacy - Wikipedia

Timothy Snyder - "On Tyranny", Trump & How Abandoning Facts Destroys Democracy | The Daily Show - YouTube Snyder is a professor of history at Yale. 

Pro-Trump dark money groups organized the rally that led to deadly Capitol Hill riot

Feds say police found a pickup truck full of bombs and guns near Capitol insurrection as wide-ranging investigation unfurls 

Capitol mob dragged cop down stairs, beat him with American flag pole, video shows - The Washington Post

Two men seen carrying restraints during Capitol riot charged with federal crimes Why were the Trumpsters carrying zip ties? The answer is obvious notwithstanding the claim of the Trumpster acting federal prosecutor for D.C. Michael Sherwin who needs to be removed from that post on 1/20/21. Federal official walks back allegation rioters intended to 'capture and assassinate' Sherwin claimed that there was no direct evidence of intent.  

One  of those arrested who were photographed carrying zip ties was Larry Brock of Texas, a retired colonel who was dressed in tactical gear. Brock claims that he was invited into the capitol and that he found the zip ties lying on the floor. He was merely in the process of taking those restraints to the police when someone took his picture. 

Robert Keith Packer: Man in 'Camp Auschwitz' sweatshirt during Capitol riot identified (underneath "Camp Auschwitz" the sweatshirt contained the words "Works Bring Freedom", a rough translation of the message on that concentration camp's gates)

How the rioters who stormed the Capitol came dangerously close to Pence - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: How the rioters who stormed the Capitol came dangerously close to Pence The Trumpsters wanted to hang Pence since he refused to throw out the election results, which he had no power to do, and then elect himself and Donald for another 4 years as the Vice-President and President respectively. 

We looked for antifa at the Capitol0-we couldn’t find any-The Washington Post

The 65 days that led to chaos at the Capitol - BBC News 

Dominion sues Trump lawyer Sidney Powell for defamation, seeks $1.3 billion The complaint is 124 pages long. Complaint.pdfDid a  Conservative News Site Admit Its Voter-Fraud Claims Were False?- Yes 

GOP Sen. Pat Toomey calls on Trump to resign Senator Toomey has developed a spine since he announced that he would not run for reelection in 2022. I suspect that congressman Conor Lamb (D-PA), a moderate, will run in that 2022 senate race. Conor Lamb of Pa. decries Republican ‘lies,’ leading to heated exchange during electoral vote certification

FBI, NYPD told Capitol Police about possibility of violence before riot, senior officials say The question which needs to be answered is why did the Capital Police and other government agencies fail to heed the warnings of a clear and present danger to member of Congress. Rioters Taking Over The Capitol Planned It Online 

Note these warnings from an Israeli analyst published on 12/21/20: 



Arieh Kovler (@ariehkovler) / Twitter

Two minutes inside the mob: A CNN reporter's view of the riot  Washington Post Journalists Say They Were Arrest 

2 Capitol Police officers suspended and 10-15 more under investigation for alleged roles in riot Those white male officers would have taken a different approach IMO if the those trying to break into the capitol had brown or black skins.   

Chad Wolf, Homeland Security secretary, quits after pro-Trump Capitol riot Wolf was just another miserable failure. He will be remembered for (1) children in cages; (2) a total failure to protect the capitol from the Trumpster riot; and (3) acting illegally as the Homeland Security security. Federal judge rules acting DHS head Chad Wolf unlawfully appointed, invalidates DACA suspensionTrump admin considering Chad Wolf, an author of family separation policy, for DHS chief

Opinion | Trump Is the Republican Party’s Past and Its Future - The New York Times I would agree that Donald is not an aberration, but the heart and soul of the GOP. His approval rating among republicans only sank 6 points to 75% after he incited an assault on the nation's capitol. Trump’s Popularity Declines Among Republicans After Brutal Week

Republicans continue to defy metal detectors as Capitol security ramps up The republicans are being led by the recently elected QAnon follower Lauren Boebert (R-CO) who was probably carrying her handgun in her purse as she entered the House chamber. Boebert Clashes With Capitol Police After Setting Off Metal Detectors | Colorado Public Radio   

I am expecting that representative Mo Brooks (R-Al) will be censored by the House for remarks that he made on 1/6/2021. Malinowski_Censuring Brooks Resolution (contains statements made by Brooks) The censure resolution may receive bipartisan support. I suspect that Brooks will also be investigated for possible criminal prosecution.  

Kevin Seefried, who carried Confederate flag into the Capitol, arrested

Capitol riot: Ex-firefighter Robert Sanford charged for assaulting police

Police arrest Peter Stager, the man they say beat officer with American flag during Capitol riot | TheHillMan who beat police officer says 'death is the only remedy' - CNN Video  

Texas realtor Jennifer Ryan who took private jet is charged in Capitol riot

GOP lawmakers gave tours to Trump supporters before riot, Capitol police probing claims

Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase (R) could face removal for defending Capitol siege | Chesterfield Observer

Cindy McCain may be censured by Arizona Republicans. It's a crockTrump blows up the Arizona GOP on his way out - POLITICO The GOP is not salvageable as a conservative party. 

It needs to be remembered IMO that 74M Americans voted to give Donald another 4 years in office. While he lost by over 7M votes nationwide, he was denied a second term by only 77,000 votes in 4 states.  And it was obvious IMO that Donald was a lying, sociopathic, authoritarian demagogue.

Trump knew before he even announced his candidacy that he could make 30,000+ false statements during a 4 year term and would still be viewed as honest by the vast majority of republicans. Spreading baseless conspiracy theories was just one manipulation technique that he used on those who can not be persuaded by accurate information.  

His candidacy was launched by becoming the foremost spreader of the Obama birther conspiracy that probably contributed significantly to becoming the republican nominee in 2016. 

And that was only his first major propagation of baseless conspiracy theories. List of conspiracy theories promoted by Donald Trump - Wikipedia 

Trump has provided a blueprint for how future republican candidates for President can win; and Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz have clearly received that message loud and clear. 

++++++

1. Small Ball

A. Started FCBP-Bought 10 at $17


Quote: First Choice Bancorp 

Closing Price 1/15: FCBP $19.40 -$0.47 -2.37% 

Investment CategoryRegional Bank Basket Strategy

FCBP is a bank holding company that owns First Choice Bank headquarter in Cerritos, CA. "First Choice Bank conducts business through nine full-service branches and two loan production offices located in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego Counties. "

This is my first buy. 

FCBP Average Analyst E.P.S. Estimates-MarketWatch (1 analyst, as of 1/9/21)

2021 $2.37

2022 $2.5

FCBP SEC Filings 

3 Year Financials



2019 Annual Report 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share

First Choice Bancorp- Dividends

The dividend was last raised to $.25 from $.2 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.  

Yield at $17: 5.88%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/11/20

Last Earnings Report (9/30/20)SEC Filed Press Release 

"net income of $7.9 million for the third quarter of 2020, or $0.67 per diluted share, compared to net income of $5.7 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020."

The performance numbers were good in the 3rd quarter (ROA, ROE, efficiency ratio, NIM): 


Charge offs: $88K or .02% of average loans

Coverage Ratio: 144.2%

The NPL ratio increased to .69% primarily due to completed construction loans "on two high quality ocean view homes in Malibu, California with recent appraisals indicating less than 50% Loan-to-Appraised Value." So no charge off would be anticipated. 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

B. Started GSK in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $36.36; 5 at $36.13:

Quotes: 

USD ADR: GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR 

British Pence Ordinary: GlaxoSmithKline PLC (U.K.: London 

Closing Price 1/15: GSK $38.47  +$0.31  +0.81% 

I have not owned this stock for a long time. I decided to buy using the small ball "purchase program" risk mitigation strategy based on this stocks combination of yield with a P/E well below market multiples.  

I mentioned this purchase in a 1/7/21 comment

Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute 

Investors | GSK

Products | GSK

2020 3rd Quarter Drug and Vaccine Revenues




GSK has a significant portfolio of consumer products as part of its joint venture with Pfizer. Our consumer healthcare products | GSK (28+% of revenues in the 2020 third quarter)


GSK completes transaction with Pfizer to form new world-leading Consumer Healthcare Joint Venture Pfizer has a 32% stake. Pfizer Announces Closing of Joint Venture With GlaxoSmithKline to Create a Premier Global Consumer Healthcare Company  GSK and PFE will likely spin off this joint venture into a separately traded public company, probably in 2022. Before forming the JV with Pfizer, GSK acquired the NVS's consumer products. GSK reaches agreement with Novartis to acquire full ownership of Consumer Healthcare Business 

IMO, GSK would be better off buying PFE out, but that is a minority opinion. 

Our pipeline | GSK

SEC Filings 

2019 Annual Report SEC Form 20-F for a foreign corporation 

GlaxoSmithKline plc Profile | Reuters  

GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 1/9/21, the average E.P.S. for 2021 was $3.05 and $3.28 for 2022) 

Dividend: Quarterly 

The U.K. does not currently collect a dividend tax. The dividend amount will depend on the GBP/USD conversion amount which will cause currency related fluctuation in the amount and consequently the yield

The U.K. share quarterly rate has remained constant with 3 payments of 19 pence and 1 payment of 23 pence. Dividend calculator (USD) | GSK  This is not a dividend growth stock unless the U.S. dividend yield grows throw the GBP increasing in value against the USD. 

1 ADR = 2 ordinary GBP priced shares

At the current dividend rates, the owner of the ordinary shares priced in British Pence would receive an annual dividend of 80 pence. 

The U.S. priced ADR own would receive £1.6 annually (100 pence =  1£)

GBP / USD Currency Chart. British Pound to US Dollar Rates

Average Cost this account: $36.24

Yield Using TTM USD Payments of US$2.03 at current AC = 5.6%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/12/20

5 Year Chart :

Last Earnings ReportGSK delivers resilient performance, strong commercial execution and further strategic progress in Q3 or SEC Filed Press Release 

E.P.S. 25p

Adjusted E.P.S. .35p 

GSK had some restructuring charges during the quarter which were added back in the adjusted E.P.S. calculation. 

Glaxo (GSK) Beats Earnings Estimates in Q3, Revenues Miss | Nasdaq

GSK Says Q3 Earnings Fall 14.4% Amid COVID-19 Disruption | Business News | US News

Some Recent News

FDA Approves Trelegy Ellipta as the First Once-Daily Single Inhaler Triple Therapy for the Treatment of Both Asthma and COPD in the US (this is a new indication; Innoviva Inc. (INVA) participates)

FDA approves GSK's BENLYSTA as the first medicine for adult patients with active lupus nephritis in the US (12/17/20)

European Commission approves Zejula (niraparib) as first-line monotherapy maintenance treatment in advanced ovarian cancer (10/29/20)

FDA approves Nucala as the first and only biologic treatment for Hypereosinophilic Syndrome (HES)(third indication)

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers)

Argus (12/11/20): Buy with a $45 PT, reduced from $50  

Morningstar (11/23/20): 4 stars with a FV of $45

S & P (11/30/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $39 

One major problem is that GSK's blockbuster Advair drug is off patent and is consequently facing pricing pressure from generics. 

Another problem is that GSK and SNY, two of the largest vaccine product companies, struck out on their first attempt at a Covid vaccine. Sanofi and GSK announce a delay in their adjuvanted recombinant protein-based COVID-19 vaccine programme to improve immune response in the elderly When and if GSK develops a Covid vaccine that can be approved, the pandemic may be just a bad memory.  

C. Started GSK in Fidelity Account-Bought 5 at $36.43

See Item #1.B. above. 

D. Started CC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $26.6; 5 at $26.14; 5 at $25.4; 5 at $24.8; 5 at $24.3 and Sold 22 Vanguard Taxable Account at $28.5

Purchases Fidelity Account (still own): 


Sold 22 at $28.5 in Vanguard Account:


Quote: Chemours Co. - Industrial and Speciality Chemicals

Closing Price 1/15: CC $27.08 -$0.17 -0.62% 

Investment Categories: Speculative Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute

Brands and Products | The Chemours Company

Chemours Co Profile | Reuters

SEC Filings 

The company separated from Dupont in 2015.

Investor Relations 

2019 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 11 and ends at page 25; debt summary starts at page F-36)

S & P Debt Rating: BBonds Detail for 6.625% SU maturing in 2022 

Profit Snapshot 22 Shares = +$45.79

I discussed purchasing CC shares in this 12/27/20 comment. I would describe CC generally as a cyclical company whose revenues and profits are closely tied to economic expansions and contractions. As such, its P/E multiple will generally be meaningfully below market index levels for non-financial companies during an economic expansion since investors know that those earnings will deflate during recessions and minimal GDP growth periods. 

CCAnalyst Estimates (as of 1/9/21, average E.P.S for 2021 was $2.59 and $3.24 for 2022)

I discussed selling shares in a 1/7/20 comment. Chemours is potentially exposed to significant costs related to the PFAS chemical lawsuits and remediation. (see pages 23-27 last filed 10-Q; other litigation risk issues are discussed therein as well) 

Average Cost Per Share Fidelity account: $25.46

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share

Yield at AC = 3.93%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/13/20

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release 


Debt is heavy. "As of September 30, 2020, consolidated gross debt was $4.1 billion. Debt, net of $956 million cash, was $3.2 billion, resulting in a net leverage ratio of approximately 3.7 times on a trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA basis.  Total liquidity was $1.7 billion, comprised of $956 million of cash and $702 million of revolving credit facility capacity."   

The last debt offering was €450M of SU notes maturing in 2026. Prospectus 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab Customers) 

Argus (12/8/20):  Hold

S & P (12/18/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $24

I do not have access to these reports: 

Goldman Sachs (12/14/20): Increases PT to $29 from $26, maintains neutral rating. 

Morgan Stanley (12/14/20): Increases PT to $28 from $23, keeps neutral rating. 

RBC (12/11/20): Increases PT to $27 from $23, maintains sector perform rating 

UBS (12/10/20): Increases PT to $24 from $22, maintains neutral rating 

Barclays (12/4/20): Increases PT to $28 from $26 while downgrading the stock to equal weight from overweight. 

Maximum Position: 50 shares (too many risks for more)

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share. 

E. Added 3 BMY at $61.3-Schwab Taxable


Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.

Closing Price 1/15: BMY $66.54  +$0.52  +0.79% 

BMY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BMY SEC Filings

2019 Annual Report

Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute

Average Cost Per Share this Account: $61.7

Dividend: Quarterly at $.49 per share, recently raised from $.45

Yield at AC this account: 3.18%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/20

Recent News Since Last Discussion: Bristol Myers Squibb Announces $2 Billion Incremental Share Repurchase Authorization (1/11/21) 

Last Discussions

Item #3.M. Added to BMY in Fidelity Taxable- Bought 2 at $61.05 (1/1/21 Post) 

Item # 3.A. Started BMY in Schwab Taxable account-Bought 5 at $63; 1 at $61.5; 1 at $61.24; 2 at $61 and 2 at $60.4 (12/19/20 Post) 

I have nothing further to add to those recent discussions. 

F. Added 1 TRP at $40.88; 2 at $40.2 :  



Quotes: 

USD: TC Energy Corp. (TRP)-an energy infrastructure company based in Canada.

CAD: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto) 

Closing Price 1/15: TRP $44.41  +$0.13  +0.29% 

Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/ Dividend Growth/ Bond Substitute 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.B. Added to TRP-Bought 1 at $49.92; 1 at $39.59; 1 at $39 (11/7/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. TC Energy reports robust third quarter financial results

Average Cost this account$44.25 (20+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.81 per share (C$3.24 annually)

TRP is the USD priced shares traded on the NYSE. 

Dividends will be paid in CADs and converted into USDs for TRP owners. 

Canada will withhold a 15% tax when TRP is owned in a U.S. citizens taxable account. 

When TRP is owned in a U.S. citizens retirement account, the current tax treaty between Canada and the U.S. exempts dividend payments from that 15% tax. This exemption does not apply to Canadian companies that are pass through entities. I own TRP in two Roth IRA accounts.

Last Ex Dividend: 12/30/20

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes. 

Purchase Restriction: Each purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

Maximum Position: 30 shares

I have a larger position in TRP reset equity preferred stocks priced in CADs and traded in Toronto. 

H. Eliminated UCBI Fidelity Taxable-Sold 14+ at $28.59



Quote: United Community Banks 

UCBI Analyst Estimates

UCBI SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$156.37

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy


I currently view the stock to be overvalued and unattractive at its current price. 

I. Eliminated UCBI Schwab Taxable-Sold 4+ at $28.72

Profit Snapshot: +$49.27


See Item 1.F. above

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

J. Started TELNY-Bought 10 at $16.71


Quotes: 

USD: Telenor ASA ADR-Telecommunications company based in Norway.  



Closing Price 1/15: TELNY $17.07 -$0.16 -0.93% 

Telecommunication services are provided in Denmark, Norway and Sweden with additional operations in several southeast Asia countries. Our operations - Telenor Group

About Us - Telenor Group (operations in 9 countries with 180M subscribers)

Company Website: Investors - Telenor Group

Investment Category: Bond Substitute 

Dividends: Semi-annually, paid in Norwegian Krone

2020 Dividends

While the Norway and U.S. have a tax treaty that will limit Norway's dividend tax to 15%, the treaty right still needs to be claimed by the broker and many will fail to do so. 

Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Continued strong performance- digitalisation and modernisation drive EBITDA growth - Telenor Group


Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

K. Pared DPG in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $11.82 (highest cost lot)


Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund 

Profit Snapshot: $4.31 (12/24 sell only)



Investment Category: Bond Substitute


SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 10/31/20: Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income Fund Inc.  

New Average Cost Per Share this Account: $10.36

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share (supported by ROC)

I sold this lot after the ex dividend date. 

Yield at $10.36: 13.51%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/20 

There was some strange action in DPG on 12/24 with the price rising $.74 or 6.55% with volume at 1.104+M shares compared to the average 150,267. I mentioned this activity in a 12/26/20 comment

This fund's exposure to energy infrastructure stocks has been a major detractor from performance since 2014. Those stocks have started to move up recently. 

In  Item # 3 to my last post, I mentioned that my largest DPG position is in my Schwab account where I own 390+ shares which includes the 10+ shares bought with the 2020 4th quarter dividend of $129.46.

L. Restarted CET-Bought  5 at $32.03

Quote: Central Securities Corp - A CEF

Closing Price 1/15: CET $32.91 -$0.43 -1.29% 

Sponsor's website: Central Securities Corporation

CET SEC Filings 

I mentioned this purchase in a 12/28/20 comment. 

My last purchase was in 2016. Item # 1 Bought 100 CET at $19.68- Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 6/15/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

CEF SEC Filings

Portfolio as of 9/30/20 

CET's largest investment is in a private company called Plymouth Rock. 

In 2015, CET sold 6,000 shares to Plymouth Rock, reducing its position to 28,424 shares. Annual Report at page 6 CET has a 22.4% ownership position.  

That position was valued at $206.074M as of 9/30/20. The shares were acquired in 1982 at a cost of $710,000. CET received from Plymouth Rock $14,163,111 in dividends for the first nine months of 2020Last Page of this SEC Filing 

Plymouth Rock 2019 Annual Report:

Financial information for this company is available on an annual basis. 

Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/20

Recent Dividend History

Dividends

Data as of 1/8/21

CET reports NAV per share only on a weekly basis.  

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $40.93

Closing Market Price: $33.22

Discount: -18.84%

Average 3 Year Discount: 17.10%

Sourced: CET CEF Connect 

(CET)  at Morningstar (rated at 3 stars)

Round-Trip Trading Snapshots: +$346.02


M. Restarted GAM-Bought 5 at $37.25; 5 at $36.95



Quote General American Investors Co.- A Stock CEF formed in 1928

Closing Price 1/15: GAM $37.60 -$0.26 -0.69% 

Average Cost = $37.1

GAM SEC Filings 

(GAM) at Morningstar (rated 2 stars)

Sponsor's Website: General American Investors 

Leveraged: Yes through preferred stock 

General American Investors Co. Inc. 5.95% Cumulative Preferred Series B (GAMPRB)Prospectus 

Personally, I believe the common share owners would be better off with GAM redeeming this preferred stock at par value now and issuing a similar dollar amount in long term senior unsecured notes or just go without any leverage.   

GAM has an ongoing preferred stock repurchase program but the price has to sink below the $25 par value to implement. General American Investors Company Announces: Actions Taken by the Board of Directors That is not likely to happen anytime soon. 

SEC Filing-Investments as of 9/30/20 (cost= $670.7+M; value at $1.202+B as of 9/30/20)

Last SEC Filed Report (semi-annual period ending 6/30/20)

Top Ten Holdings as of 9/30/20 (includes Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nestle, TJX and Unilever.  

Dividends: Annually. General American Investors or General American Investors, Inc. Common Stock (GAM) Dividend History | Nasdaq

The last dividend was $2.5 per share with $2.27 of that amount sourced from long term capital gains. 

Data Date of 1/5/21 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $43.84

Closing Market Price: $36.93

Discount: -15.76%

Average 3 Year Discount: -15.96

Sourced: GAM-CEF Connect (Click Pricing Information tab)

Previous DiscussionsItem # 2.B.Eliminated GAM-Sold 109+ at $32.74 (2/15/17 Post)(profit snapshot = +$88.53I reinvested the year end distribution of $320.29 to buy 9.8167 shares which were sold at a $13.41. profit)-Item # 1 Bought 100 GAM at $31.9-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 7/18/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Sold 107+ GAM at $34.44 (10/19/13 Post)(profit snapshot=$518.31/Total Return=$717.12))-Item # 3 Bought 100 of the Stock CEF $29.52 (9/20/2012 Post)

So far I have been content in selling the shares at a profit after collecting the year end distribution. 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

GAM Trading Profits to Date: $606.84

N. Eliminated NORW-Sold 120+ at $12.61


Profit Snapshot: $52.07

This was another poor performer that was dumped for a small profit. The robust stock rally has provided me with an opportunity to clean up my portfolio through selling positions that had been under water. 

My allocation to Norway will be through individual stock purchases with the heaviest weighting in Orkla, currently at 200 shares. In other words, I will try to beat the performance of this stock ETF with individual stock selections. I discussed a new Norway based stock purchase in Item 1.J. above. 

Sponsor's website: MSCI Norway ETF

Expense Ratio: .5%

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 5.C. Bought 5 NORW at $10.84 (8/28/19 Post) 

O. Added to AKBA-Bought 5 at $2.8


Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc.

Last Discussed: Item  # 2.I. Bought 10 AKBA at $3.18; 5 at $3; 5 at $2.9 (12/25/20 Post I have nothing to add to that recent discussion. I am just averaging down here. 

Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy

P. Added 5 GLUU at $8.7; 5 at $8.55



Closing Price 1/15: GLUU $8.97 -$0.50 -5.28% 

I discussed this stock in my last post. Item # 1.F. Started GLUU as a Lotto  (1/9/21 Post) 

Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy

GLUU is discussed in the 1/11/21 article: My Favorite Video Game Stocks for 2021 | The Motley Fool

Average Cost per share = $9.15 (45 shares)

Highest Cost Lot at $9.6 (10 shares, as part of risk mitigation, will be sold when and if the price exceeds $10)

Q. Pared EAF-Sold 25 at $11.8

Quote: GrafTech International Ltd.

Closing Price 1/15/20: EAF $10.51 -$1.10 -9.47% 

Profit Snapshot: +$1.99



Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 3.I. Eliminated EAF in Fidelity taxable account-Sold 46+ at $9.94 (1/1/21 Post)

New average cost per share: $10.29  (53+ shares)

I mentioned  selling my second highest cost lot in the last post: Item # 1.F. Pared EAF-Sold 25 at $11.43 (second highest cost lot)  (1/9/21 Post)  

EAF Trading Profits to Date$259.45 ($257.46 prior sells)

This stock was trading at less than $7 in early November 2020. EAF Historical Prices  The rally since then is linked to renewed Stock Jock optimism about a robust worldwide economic recovery which remains an open question IMO. This has been a  hard stock to profitably trade.  It has been a bungee jumper over the past year:

1 Year as of 1/13/2021 Close

Recent Analyst Report: On 1/8/2011, RBC raised its PT to $11 from $7 and maintained its sector perform rating. I do not have access to that report but would simply emphasize that the analyst raised the PT to $11 after the stock went over $11.  

R. Sold 10 AT at $2.92



Closing Price 1/15: AT $2.92  +$0.8200 +39.05% 

Profit Snapshot: +$8.09


I just bought this Lotto at $2.1. The company agreed to be acquired for $3.03 in cash per share. Atlantic Power Agrees to be Acquired by I Squared Capital 

Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy

The 10 share buy caused some conflict here at the trading desk. Right Brain wanted to buy a million shares and Left Brain did not want to buy any. The Old Geezer stepped and reached a compromise at 10 shares. The profit will be sufficient to buy the OG a single cheeseburger with bacon (no fires or drink but with sales tax) at Five Guys.  

2. Cash Flow Fidelity Taxable Account 1/15/21




The most noteworthy cash item was the $4K received from 4 Kroger bonds that matured yesterday. Reinvesting those proceeds into another 1K par value corporate bond is not even an option for me given the abnormally low rates for investment grade issues.  

And, since I am not comfortable investing that amount in stocks, the proceeds just landed in my MM account yielding .01% and are not likely to be reinvested in short order. Cash in that account is now at 45%. 

Three of the bonds pay monthly interest and were purchased as part of Fidelity corporate notes program where the bonds are sold at par value: National Rural 2.55% maturing in 2022 (2 bond); National Rural 3% maturing in 2027 (1 bond); and Goldman Sachs 3% maturing in 2024. I have not even looked at those offerings in over 6 months. The bonds are sold to retail investors and and are hard to sell given the relatively small pool of bonds sold. When buying bonds that way, I do not expect to sell prior maturity or early redemption by the issuer. The 2027 National Rural  last traded in December at 110.412 and only 5 bonds traded in November. Bond Detail (rated A2/A)

The GNL dividend was the largest common stock dividend included in these snapshots. I do not favor that externally managed REIT, but so far I have been able to trade the position profitably and the current yield is rich. Global Net Lease Inc. (9.43% at last Friday's closing price of $16.96 with an average cost per share of $16.18) The GNL preferred stock, GNLPRB, is a 25 share position bought during the meltdown with an average cost per share of $15: 



Office Properties and Highwood Property bonds are office REITs and my positions are small at two 1K bond lots each. I will lose the HIW bond soon: 



I also own the Office Properties common stock (just 10+ shares with an AC of $19.33) and 15 shares of its exchange traded bond OPINI: 


I would not buy those securities anywhere near last Friday's closing prices. 

The Black Hills, Dow Chemical and Virginia Electric Power bonds are 1 bond lots.  The Black Hills SU bond has the largest unrealized gain of those 1 bond lots: 


I have started a position in Black Hills common stock in this Fidelity account: 


The largest position that I have in a Virginia Power SU bond is 10 bonds held in my Schwab account. 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

25 comments:

  1. Stimulus - might not be passed. Hum.

    A lot of calls for value stocks, but I'm not sure there's enough for it to rotate to them.

    Granham said foreign emerging (& value) - but with dollar down, he doesn't mention that risk.

    An article on Granham said most projections now are for recovery and higher by year end. So he's probably right - except that he may be 2 years early.

    I have another project that needs attention, and will be looking at specific stocks later in the weekend.

    Even an Israeli, and I've read UK, NATO experts were warning. I've been saying, I think there was a deal at the top. Trump et al got to CP capital police somehow.

    I heard on media a CP top (I didn't get the name or rank) said "we decided this time to try for a softer look." He didn't come up with that idea after years of managing well. Media hasn't replayed it. They'd decided on a different framing that doesn't include that. But between that and Trump's speech was so prepared & calm. This was more than some reps giving pre-help to rioters. Trump even removed miltitary leaders in order to be read for his declaration of martial law and takeover.

    I hope all of this comes out. It needs to.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: A stimulus bill can pass but will not pass using "regular order" that would be subject to the Senate's filibuster rule. Possibly, if the stimulus was slimmed down to money for vaccinations and a $1400 stimulus check, it could pass that way, but republicans oppose most, if not all, of the other provisions including the increase in the minimum wage to $15 and emergency aid to state and local governments.

      So passage will in all likelihood require using the "budget reconciliation" process which avoids the filibuster but also limits what can be done and will likely require more time to pass. The GOP got the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" of 2017 through the Senate that way with only 51 votes in favor.

      The warnings were clear that Trump had assembled thousands of enraged Trumpsters on 1/6/21, many of whom were contemplating an attack on the Capitol and were wearing combat gear. The speakers including Trump threw gasoline on that rage that they help to create through false election fraud information spread by them and almost all republican politicians who had something to say about the national election results.

      The question is then why was the capitol police and other federal agencies so unprepared given the warnings; and that will need to be explored in a subsequent investigation.

      For now, I view it as important that Biden remove the Trumpster who is the acting federal D.A. for Washington immediately on 1/20. He is leading the DOJ investigation into the Trumpster riot.

      Delete
    2. I expect Biden to be smart enough to remove a lot of people from a lot of positions corrupted by Trump.

      Federal DA for Washington would be one.

      I'm a bit worried that Merrick Garland is too "nice" for the job that's needed. He did prosecute Timothy McVeigh.

      At least he's seen as fair & integrity minded. With the Georgia seats Biden should get most of his picks!

      Delete
    3. If you want info on using medical marijuana from potential users' perspective. :). Goes into the current laws as well.

      https://thebloodline.org/TBL/e80/

      Delete
    4. Land: In my lifetime, Tennessee will not legalize any marijuana use for any purpose.

      I would not not smoke one even if was legal out of fear that it would lead, not to reefer madness, but to smoking cigarettes again after quitting in 1999.

      Reefer Madness (1936)
      https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0028346/

      Merrick Garland will be a solid Attorney General and is an excellent appointment by Biden.

      https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/merrick-garland-man-again-meets-moment

      Delete
    5. I just realized...I should be clearer, I meant if you wanted to learn about future users perspectives... since that info can effect one's investing decisions!!

      I did not mean if you want to learn because you'd want to smoke it.

      It's from the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society for medical use on cancer. They do a lot of quality videos, so I expect this is well done. I haven't watched it.

      Delete

  2. Glad to see that about Garland. I have no worry about solid. Only about willingness to go after all of this. So, glad to hear it.

    Congrats on quitting. Tough to do.

    I'm not likely to smoke mj. I tried in my youth with friends, started coughing and fulfilled Clinton's line of "I didn't inhale." I was not successful and decided that was okay.

    My recent lab came back with early emphysema like structures in my lungs due to smoking. I've never smoked or lived/worked in a smokey environment extensively. I believe the radiologist was being over-zealous on the job. The problem with lab testing is they find so many things, not to worry about, to go with the intended target.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Canada's stock market is open today.

    I discussed TC Energy (TRP) in Item # 1.F. above.

    TC Energy Corporation (TRP.TO)
    C$54.37 -C$2.20 (-3.89%)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRP.TO/?p=TRP.TO
    As of 2:34PM EST

    Biden has said in the past that he will cancel the permit for TRP's Keystone pipeline, so it is not surprising to read stories today that he intends to do so as one of his first acts as President.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-keystone/biden-may-cancel-keystone-xl-pipeline-permit-as-soon-as-his-first-day-in-office-source-idUSKBN29N00A

    I would think that this cancellation was already baked into the stock price.

    The stock went ex dividend on 12/30.

    The price of the USD priced shares will reflect the ordinary shares priced in CADs and converted into USDs.

    The CAD/USD bottomed on a 1 year chart near .69 during March and is now trading near .785.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/cadusd/charts?mod=mw_quote_tab

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I saw outrage that he's cancelling the permit, like it's a surprise.

      Futures say tomorrow's bright and skies are blue.

      Delete
  4. It's very hard to do nothing. But that may be what's best here.

    Except buying truly undervalued stocks that can last through another crash. So not too heavy on the debt, and with div. Or lottery hopes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I was far more comfortable buying in mid-March, when I was doing 80 to 100+ buy orders a day, than I am now where I am generally doing 2 to 5 net buy orders or 2 to 5 net sell orders.

      I pared ARCC this morning in one account by profitably selling just 10 shares at $17.35, which reduced my AC to $12.88 from $13.55.

      Buying is also done in small lot amounts. I am comfortable doing it that way.

      Delete
  5. Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
    $67.41 +4.08 +6.44%
    Last Updated: Jan 19, 2021 at 11:18 a.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gild?mod=over_search

    When asked about GILD last year, I mentioned that GILD had been a value trap but may be interesting as a trade given its fall from grace. The price hit $84 last April and topped out at near $120 in 2015.

    I am not sure anymore whether it is still a value trap at its current price, so I did start a small ball "buying program" in 2 taxable accounts which I did not discuss here because of that opinion expressed last year.

    The pop today brought me back into profit territory. The largest position is just 11+ shares in my Fidelity account with an AC of $63.48 with the last 1 share buys at $56.7 and $56.1 on 12/30/20.

    The rally today may have 2 causes. The Supreme Court denied Merck's effort to revive a $2.54B jury verdict against GILD for patent infringement which had been set aside by an appeals court that ruled Merck's patent was invalid.

    The second reason is that MS upgraded GILD to overweight with an $83 PT.

    https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/01/19/top-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-airbnb-amex-arch-capital-carlyle-darden-facebook-eli-lilly-nio-and-more/2/

    I do not have access to that report but it may be related to the Supreme Court's decision today.

    Gilead updated its 2020 guidance on 1/11/21:

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209521000002/exhibit991guidancepressrel.htm

    ReplyDelete
  6. Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU)
    $9.58 +$0.61 +6.80%
    Last Updated: Jan 19, 2021 at 11:37 a.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gluu?mod=over_search

    I own GLUU in my Lotto category and discussed some adds in Item # 1.P. above. AC is currently at $9.15 (45 shares)

    The pop today is probably due to MS raising its PT to $13.5 from $13 and reiterating a buy rating. I do not have access to that report.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Some nice pops. I haven't got much that could pop.

    I looked at GILD a few months ago. I don't remember what report I was looking at when I concluded their management doesn't seem to pull them upward well. Not strong management. Otherwise it'd be a great buy. They regularly go up and down so a good bet for a pop, but I also decided it would be adding complexity to keep track of them, and I'd look elsewhere.

    That case decision certainly sounds like a good reason to pop.

    I got the prevnar13 vaccine yesterday. I'm reacting so I do have an immune system (that's the very good news.) But I'm not going to try to think.

    I won't be watching much of the pomp and circumstances tomorrow. I'm not into that style of events. But I did enjoy on Maddow's program tonight her starting segment, a list of ways in which Trump has been a loser in office.


    ReplyDelete
  8. Barron's has a summary of the Morgan Stanley report that contributed to GILD's price pop yesterday:

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/gilead-bets-heavily-in-a-cancer-biotech-acquisition-51600092014?mod=article_inline

    The analyst identified two potential catalysts this year.

    The first involves continued positive trial results for the cancer drug Trodelvy which GILD acquired through its expensive $21B acquisition of Immunomedics. That drug received accelerated approval in April as a treatment adult patients with metastatic who have received at least two prior therapies for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC). The approval was based on a Phase 2 trial. Continued approval may depend on ongoing trials to verify positive outcomes.


    GILD released positive Phase 3 trial results last month:

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201210006112/en/

    See also: http://investors.gilead.com/static-files/7db4987f-930d-4b18-877e-0c75d5e34c0d

    Based on that trial, GILD has requested full approval for that indication.

    The catalyst for the MS analyst involves the long term survival rate results to be released later this year.

    The drug is also being tested for other cancers that have genetic characteristics which resist existing treatments. Revenues were reported at $53M for the 3rd quarter.

    The drug will need to be approved for other indications to justify the price tag.

    I would not be surprised to learn that a few oncologists are already using the drug off label for other solid tumors.

    The second potential catalyst is the long lasting HIV drug lenacapavir which may end up helping GILD defend its HIV franchise from new competing drugs. The analyst estimates that this drug could add $15 to GILD's stock price. I have no idea whether that opinion is rationally fact based or reasonable.

    +++

    Morgan Stanley, barely owned by me, is rising in pre-market based on its better than expected results:

    Morgan Stanley (MS)
    PREMARKET $76.49 +$1.50 +2.00%

    E.P.S. $1.81 vs. consensus at $1.3

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those are good reasons. Maybe I'll reconsider. It's not run up yet the way so many of the drug companies are.

      Delete
  9. Less than 40 mins and the nuclear codes will be in sane hands.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I am not in favor of crazy people being President, irrespective of party or ideology. Donald suffers from a variety of mental illnesses that made him unfit and those issues were rapidly becoming worse. And I view him as the most powerful enemy of America's democracy.

      I feel like a 100 pound weight has been lifted off my shoulders.

      Delete
    2. ...a 315 lb weight was lifted?

      Sure wasn't that 195 or whatever was on that report.

      Delete
  10. Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH)
    $17.66 +$1.92 +12.17%
    Last Updated: Jan 20, 2021 at 1:43 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bzh?mod=over_search

    This is another one of my Lottos.

    I do not see any news explaining the pop today.

    I would consequently ascribe the reason to a technical breakout on the chart. The stock has been in an uptrend since bottoming near $4.5 last March. The most recent top was in the $15.85 to $16.3 range. The stock surged over the top end of that range earlier today, which probably brought in some non-fundamental buyers IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Biden did revoke the Keystone Pipeline permit.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/20/joe-biden-kills-keystone-xl-pipeline-permit-460555

    I am not in favor of that action.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to build pipelines in the U.S. The Keystone Project was originally planned over a decade ago (proposed first in 2005) and had been delayed through litigation, permit and other issues.

    Ultimately, the winners may end up being companies with existing pipelines in place or new ones being constructed having survived the assaults.

    I know that Enbridge's Line 3 is a 1,097 mile pipeline originally constructed in the 1980s that run from from Edmonton, Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin. It is being replaced by a new line:

    https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/minnesota-projects/line-3-replacement-project

    Construction of the Minnesota part of the line commenced in November 2020:

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/enbridge-line-3-starts-construction-in-minnesota-301181932.html

    Unless halted for some reason, the expansion into Minnesota is schedule for completion in the 2021 summer.

    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120720-enbridges-line-3-construction-begins-emergency-stay-denied

    I am critical of the democrat governor in Michigan who tried to revoke an easement granted to ENB for its line 5.

    ENB refused to obey that order and will litigate:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/michigan-governors-attempt-to-revoke-line-5-easement-is-unlawful-and-ignores-science-and-evidence-301205820.html

    Many democrats apparently believe that magic wands move oil from production sites to refineries.

    I own ENB shares in several of my accounts.

    Enbridge Inc.
    $35.56 +$0.48 +1.37%
    YIELD 7.34%
    EX-DIVIDEND DATE Feb 11, 2021
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/enb?mod=over_search

    The largest position is my Fidelity taxable at 45+ share with an AC of $30.92. My plan was to sell the highest cost lot (5 shares bought at $34.55 on 11/16/17) when the price went over $35, but I decided to wait until after the next dividend ex date. The lowest cost lot was bought at $23.62 last March.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ford is getting some upgrades from investment banks which causing buying and rise in it's price.

    I read an Cramer article about how stay at home work will continue post pandemic and there will be an electric push so that points to Ford and GM, and out of them he prefers Ford.

    I can't make sense out of that. Stay at home will increase car sales, and electric points to ford.

    However it seems to be a popular thought in general now. I'll take it as it helps me out of this hole.

    I read that the pipeline cancel should benefit the sold already developed companies like CVX. Wouldn't know it from today's pricing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I have two cars, a 2007 Saturn Aura and a mint condition 1987 Mercedes 260. I do not see a link between stay/work at home and electric vehicles. My only position in Ford is 1 Ford Motor Credit 2.95% SU bond maturing next year.

      I turned on CNBC for a minute today, long enough to hear a guy from State Street say that valuations do not matter anymore with the FED keeping rates at zero. To avoid brain pollution, I turned the TV off, so I am not sure whether he was describing the Stock Jocks' mental state or affirmatively saying that valuations do not matter.

      Federal debt and parabolic increases in federal budget deficits do not matter either, at least for the time being.

      Regional bank stocks are reporting better than expected earnings for the most part, yet stock prices have started to fall or failed to move up in response.

      REITs and other "bond substitutes" are declining in response to a persistent trend higher in intermediate and longer term interest rates.

      The FED has successfully anchored short term rates near zero with ZIRP.

      The question remains whether endless QE can stop longer term rates from continuing to rise.

      I did buy a few shares of WPC today.

      W. P. Carey Inc.
      $66.65 -$0.38 -0.57%
      YIELD 6.28%
      EX-DIVIDEND DATE Dec 30, 2020
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wpc?mod=over_search

      I owned 10 shares in 2 taxable accounts on the last ex dividend date and now own 22 shares which effectively is an average up.

      Last Discussed:
      F. Added 5 WPC at $43
      Saturday, April 25, 2020

      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/adx-argd-bmoprsca-bud-cube-emp-pbct-pfe.html

      Drug stocks fell today possibly due to concerns about what the democrats may try to do.

      I have a larger position in its SU bonds owning at least 4, maybe more.

      TRP is now up in price since Biden cancelled its Keystone pipeline permit.

      TC Energy Corp.
      $45.29 +$1.04 +$2.35%

      Canadian stocks price in USDs have been outperforming the same shares priced in CADs since March due to a persistent rise in the CAD/USD exchange rate.

      https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=1Y

      My most recent Lotto buy was 20 shares of LLNW at $4 which I may discuss in about a month.

      Limelight Networks Inc.
      $4.4700 +$0.1400 +3.23%
      VOLUME: 10.47M/65 DAY AVG: 5.32M
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/llnw?mod=over_search

      Last October, the price collapsed after what the Stock Jocks viewed as an unfavorable earnings report.

      Earnings Press Release
      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1391127/000139112720000239/llnw-q32020ex991.htm

      SEC Filings:
      https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1391127&owner=exclude

      Discussed at
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/13/2-top-stocks-under-10-sirius-xm-limelight-networks/

      Delete
  13. Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. ADR (KC)
    $51.53 $5.89 +12.91%
    Last Updated: Jan 22, 2021 at 1:51 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kc?mod=over_search

    I have not seen any recent news to account for KC's price spurt. I own KC as a Lotto (5 shares total)

    ReplyDelete
  14. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/01/abbv-fidi-finx-fmat-fmagx-gdv-gnl-gsg.html

    ReplyDelete