Until I resume publishing weekly posts, I will publish a monthly update that will discuss a very small number of my trades.
My last substantive posts were published on 2/10/25. AIO, CAG (Last Post for at least several months) an AROW, CPB, CTRA, ELC, EMP, EXG, ENB, GILD, HTBK, MRCC, MS, OBDC, QYLD, RYLD, SBSI, SWZ, TRPPRD:CA, VHCOX In those 2 posts, I discussed purchasing $64,000 in $1,000 par value investment grade corporate bonds and a few stock trades.
I have continued to buy treasury bills at auction and investment grade corporate bonds since publishing those posts.
I have been discussing topics relating to the U.S. economy including several that relate to my primary concerns which are (1) whether U.S. consumer spending will be supportive of GDP growth this year and (2) the negative impacts on inflation and GDP growth resulting from republican policy changes including the tariff war and mass deportations of workers that fill important roles in the U.S. supply chain. U S Consumer Spending About to Significantly Decline? - YouTube; February Jobs Report - Making Major Policy Changes Using False Information - YouTube; Increase in Investor Concerns about the Onset of Stagflation and Ongoing Chaos in the U.S. - YouTube
In one of those posts, I mentioned the significant increase in the U-6 number:
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| BLS Jobs Report - February |
I am just going to highlight a few trades in this monthly update.
I am not likely to start publishing weekly posts until I start buying stocks again.
I have continued to lower my stock allocation since 2/10/25.
As a result of my asset allocations, the recent turmoil in the stock market has resulted in less than a .5% decline in my total portfolio, starting in mid-February through 3/17, and will be offset soon with interest and dividend payments.
The decline in the stock market is not sufficient yet for me - based on my age and financial condition - to increase my stock allocation which has continued to trend down as a percentage of total assets at my brokers.
Even when I come to a crawl in stock trading, which has been the case for the past month, I will still be doing more than 50 trades over a 30 day period.
1. Stocks/Stock Funds:
Proceeds from stock and stock fund sales have been deposited mostly in U.S. treasury money market funds and secondarily into T Bill purchases at auction. The primary reason for reducing my stock allocation is to take chips off the table.
My primary investment objectives are capital preservation and income generation.
I do attempt each year to harvest over $20,000 in capital gains, primarily from stock/stock fund sales and also from capital gain distributions made by funds.
For common stock pares, I sold my highest cost lots, thereby lowering my average cost per share and increasing my dividend yield, except for BMY where I sold only the highest cost lots that could be sold at a profit.
A. Sold 100 PRWCX at $34.98:
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| 2/27/25 |
Quote: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview
This is a moderate allocation mutual fund.
I have a mutual fund account at T.Rowe Price only. I trade stocks and bonds only in my Fidelity, Interactive Brokers, Schwab and Vanguard accounts.
Profit Snapshot (includes 50 shares sold earlier in 2025): $2,342.04
The proceeds were transferred into the TRP Treasury MM fund.
Last Discussed: Item # 1 Sold 50 out of 1,003+ PRWCX at $35.66 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $803.25). I noted in that post that this fund paid a $3.5922 per share annual dividend last December. The amount paid to me in cash was $3,605.11.
Previous Sale Discussion: Item # 1.A. Sold 50 PRWCX at $38.94 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $967.35)
PRWCX Stock Dividend History & Date
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Stock Price | Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
PRWCX – Portfolio – Morningstar
Rationale: I am not thinking long term given my age, and I do not need to take any stock risk given my financial condition.
As my concern about the recession and inflation risks has increased over the past few months, I have harvested more stock and stock fund profits, thereby reducing my downside risk from a possible bear market.
I do not intend on selling more shares of this fund during 2025.
Current Position: 843+ shares
Average cost per share: $21.39
B. Sold Highest Cost GIS Lots into Rally at the prices indicated:
Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)
Profit Snapshot: +$37.75
Proceeds: $972.1
In this case, the derisking through selling the highest cost lots is more important than the small profit. The proceeds from most stock sales in my Fidelity account have been redirected into treasury bill purchases at auction.
I sold the following lots: Item # 1.B. Added to GIS - Bought 5 at $62.25; 5 at $61.3 (1/9/25 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to GIS - Bought 5 at $63.2 (1/1/25 Post)
General Mills Investor Relations
GIS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 5 GIS at $58.7 (1/22/25 Post) I still own that lot.
New Average cost per share: $55.64 (40 shares)
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| Price as of 3/14/25 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.60 per share
Yield at New AC: 4.31%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/10/25
Next Ex Dividend: 4/10/25
Rationale: Packaged food companies have had difficulty over the past several years increasing profits. The main problem has been the rapid increase in input costs resulting in significant price hikes for products that has resulted in lower volumes.
Increasing price just to recoup increased expenses does not result in higher profit margins and profits but pressure on both as the volume of products sold declines as consumers respond to buying less.
There is also concern about whether RFK Jr. will start to regulate the ingredients that food companies use through abandoning or modifying the GRAS rule. HHS Secretary Kennedy Directs FDA to Explore Rulemaking to Eliminate Pathway for Companies to Self-Affirm Food Ingredients Are Safe | HHS.gov; RFK Jr. wants to eliminate FDA’s controversial food additive program. Here’s why that matters | CNN
There are concerns that weight loss drug will reduce the demand for packaged foods.
GIS has built up a sizeable pet food, pet treat and organic food business, and I view that as a long term positive.
40 shares, my current position, is probably the lowest number that I will own and my next trade will be to add 5 shares at a lower price.
Psychologically it is easier for me to buy back shares sold at a higher price, particularly when the stock market is in a meltdown phase.
Next Earnings Report: This report is scheduled for release tomorrow. I will discuss it in a comment to this post.
GIS Realized Gains to Date: +$3,081.68 (no realized losses - yet)
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $68.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.15); Item # 2.A. Pared GIS - Sold Highest Cost 5 Share Lot at $68.17 (3/22/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.61, discussed the earnings report for the F/Q ending 2/25/24, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GIS in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2+ at $80.41 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $66.83); Item # 3.C. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $86.64 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $145.71); Item # 6.A. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $81.64 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.72); Item # 4.B. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $80.65 (9/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.89); Item # 2.B. Sold 2+ GIS at $67.1 and 3 at $69.22 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $46.67); Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 - Eliminated Shares Bought with Dividends (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.09); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.95); Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B (+$1,809.99). I did not track gains prior to 2007.
C. Multiple Small Ball Sales of VZ and T - Highest Cost Lots - at the Prices Indicated:
I still own VZ and T shares in my Schwab and Fidelity accounts. In both accounts I have reduced my positions to the lowest cost lots.
When selling the highest cost lots in my Schwab account, I have not been using the specific identification method recently. Instead, I have been selecting the "high cost" method where the computer selects the highest cost lots to sell.
T Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
T Proceeds: $635.38
T Realized Gain: +$201.87 (26+ shares in Schwab and Fidelity Taxable accounts)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Sold 7 T at $24.17 (1/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.14)
AT&T Dividend: Quarterly at $.2775 per share ($1.11 annually), slashed from $.52 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
Remaining Taxable Account Positions:
10 shares with an average cost of $15.55 (yield at 7.14%).
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| Price as of 3/14/25 Close |
10+ shares with an average cost of $15.34 (yield at 7.24%).
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Investors reacted favorably to this report.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.56, up from $.30
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.54, unchanged (continuing operations)
Free Cash Flow: $4.8B, down from $6.4B
2024 E.P.S. = $1.49
Adjusted E.P.S. = $2.26, down from $2.41
Revenues: $31.139B, up 1.1%
2025 Outlook:
++
VZ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
VZ Realized Gain: +$94.14 (17 shares - Schwab and Fidelity taxable accounts)
VZ Proceeds: $739.88
Last Discussed: Item # 1.N. Sold 2 VZ at $44.24; 5+ at $44.01 - Fidelity Account (12/5/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.68)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.6775 per share ($2.71 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 1/10/25
Next Ex Dividend: 4/10/25
Remaining Taxable Account Positions:
10 shares at an average cost of $33.18 (yield at 8.17%)
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| Price as of 3/14/25 close |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): VZ SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Adjusted E.P.S. = $1.1, up slightly from$1.08 in the 2023 4th quarter
2024 Adjusted E.P.S. = $4.59, down from $4.71 in 2023
2024 Free Cash Flow: $19.8B, up from $18.7B.
Outlook:
Rationale: I classify these stocks as bond substitutes which defines the objective rather than the safety of the dividends. The general goal is harvest the dividends and exit the position with an annualized 2% or higher gain on the shares.
Currently, I am also more interested in taking chips off the table as part of a risk mitigation strategy, given my concerns about the economy and stock market valuations taking into account my capital preservation objective.
The proceed numbers are more important to me now than the profit from paring my VZ and T positions.
I try to keep both VZ and T on a short leash since I have primarily negative opinions about both stocks based on the following considerations: (1) very high debt levels in a competitive industry that frequently erupts into price wars and lower costs to consumers; (2) high ongoing capital expenditures and labor costs; (3) AT&T's dividend cut and slow VZ dividend growth; and (4) a preference to owning short term corporate bonds issued by them rather than the stocks.
Retreat into SU Debt: Sometimes, shortly before or after selling a stock, I may buy a short term bond from the issuer where there is a promise to pay par value on a certain date and my total return can be calculated to the penny provided the issuer makes all interest payments and pays the principal amount at maturity.
In the 2024 4th quarter, I did buy 2 AT&T senior unsecured notes:
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%203.875%25%201:15:26.png)
2026 Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
YTM at Total Cost: 4.585%, Item #1.I.
2027 Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
YTM at Total Cost: 4.785%, Item # 2.C.
YTM is calculated using the total cost number on the date of purchase.
D. Reduced STAG - Sold 10 at $36.97 - Highest Cost Shares:
Proceeds: $369.69
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report As of 12/31/24, STAG owned 591 buildings located in 41 states with 116.6M rentable square feet. The portfolio was 97.3% leased. There were 11 development projects that are not yet counted in those totals. (page 5)
Profit Snapshot: $165.13
Remaining Shares: 60+
Average cost per share: $15.98
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| Price as of 3/14/25 |
I sold part of the highest cost lot bought on 3/26/20 during the pandemic related meltdown.
Dividend: Monthly at $.1242 ($1.49 annually), last raised from $.1233 effective for the January 2025 payment. The monthly dividend was at $.1125 in January 2015. It would be unreasonable to anticipate decent dividend growth which is one reason for selling some shares.
STAG Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $15.98 TC: 9.33%
Next Ex Dividend: 3/31/25
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A Sold 10 STAG at $40.53 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $199.74)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Using diluted shares
GAAP E.P.S. = $.28
FFO per share: $.61
Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) per share: $.48
Reconciliation of GAAP to FAD:
Funds Available for Distribution per share 4th 2022: $.46, sourced from SEC Filed Press Release
Rationale: STAG has historically had close to irrelevant dividend growth. The monthly rate has increased at an average annual rate of less than 1% over the past 10 years, far lower than the average annual inflation rate. The dividend yield at my sales price is not attractive - to me - for new purchases.
While STAG is regarded as one of the best industrial REITs, the field is littered with well capitalized companies (e.g. WPC) that can effectively compete for customers or acquisitions.
Recent FAD per share growth, which I view as more important than the total FFO, has been sluggish. I view FAD and FFO per share as being more important than the dollar amounts of FAD and FFO. REITs will increase their share count through ATM programs and stock offerings. As of 12/31/24, STAG had 183.199M diluted shares outstanding, up from 62.778M as of 12/31/2014.
For REITS, the issue is my share of the FAD and FFO as a shareholder. With new share sales and more debt added, the dollar amounts may be growing nicely on a percentage basis but the per share amounts may be hardly moving up at all.
STAG Realized Gains to Date: $2,719.86
Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Pared STAG - Sold 10 at $38.99 (1/23/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $249.22); Item # 4.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in STAG - Sold 50 at $37.22 (9/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,075.13); Item # 1.G. - Sold 4 STAG at $33 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.49); Item # 7-Pared STAG Sold 42 at $25.2: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/16 | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $271.32); Item # 2. Pared STAG-Sold 54 Shares at $23.81: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/1/16- South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $318.54); Item # 2. Pared STAG -Sold 50 of 240 at $22.74: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $48.31); Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - Item # 2. Sold 133 STAG at $19.61 | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $125.27).
E. Eliminated MAA - Sold 5 at $169.88:
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA)
I view this company as a blue chip Apartment REIT.
Portfolio:
Debt:
Sourced: EX-99.2
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $123.4; 1 at $122.25 (2/15/24 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $129.7; 1 at $128.55; 1 at $125.2 (2/9/24 Post)
Proceeds: $849.46
Profit Snapshot: +$220.26
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.515 per share ($6.06 annually), last raised from $1.47 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
Dividends MAA | Luxury Apartment Rentals
Last Ex Dividend: 1/15/25
Dividend Yield at $169.88: 3.57%
Retreated into Higher Yielding SU bonds: I am comparing the yield at my sales price to the YTM of this bond.
Bought 2 MAA LP 3.6% SU Maturing on 6/1/27 a Total Cost of 97.723:
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Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.66%
I have 4 MAA LP 4% SU bonds maturing on 11/15/25.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
FFO per share $2.21, down from $2.53
Core FFO per share: $2.23, down from $2.32
Same store physical occupancy: 95.6%
Guidance:
I would use the core FFO per share as adjusted down by recurring capital expenditures (estimated at $.98 per share) Maintenance expenditures are a major item for Apartment REITs. Cash used to pay for those costs are not available for distribution.
In my opinion, the stocks is overvalued at $169 per share.
I will consider a repurchase at below $130.
F. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $58.27 - Schwab Account:
Williams Cos. (WMB) - Energy Infrastructure
Williams Companies, Inc - Investor Relations
Proceeds: $292.37
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2 Added 95 WMB at $24.98 and 5 at $23.8 (8/20/21 Post); Item # 3.B. Added 5 WMB at $24.2 (10/8/21 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $175.36 (3/17/25 sale only)
2025 WMB Realized Gains: $675.92 (previous snapshot)
New Average cost per share: $23.22 (45+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/17/25 after pare |
WMB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $23.22: 8.61%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/25
2024 Dividend Classifications: Williams Companies, Inc - Return of Capital Distribution
2023 Dividend Classifications:
2022 Dividend Classifications:
2021 Dividend Classification (shares originally purchased in 2021)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release
2025 Guidance: AFFO per share Midpoint at $4.5
Note that the depreciation and amortization non-cash expenses is estimated at $2.4B.
WMB Realized Gains to date (taxable accounts): +$1,979.13
There have been slight revisions higher in profits compared to all prior profit snapshots due to ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis after the snapshot was taken.
Some Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Pared WMB - Sold 5 Shares at $55.55 (2/2/25 Post); Item # 4.D. Sold 5 WMB at $58.08 (1/15/25 Post); Item # 4.A. Pared WMB Again- Sold 5 at $55.58 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $158.39); Item # 6.C. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $56.69 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $163.25); Item # 4.D. Sold 5 WMB at $52.28 (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.2); Item # 3.C. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $50.3; 5 at $51.31 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $267.84); Item # 2.A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $251.11); Item # 1.B. Sold 5 WMB at $45.29 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.34); Item # 3.C. Pared WMB - Sold 4 at $40.27 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.02); Item # 1.A. Pared WMB - Sold 10 at $36.12 (1/12/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.61); Item # 6.A. Eliminated WMB Duplicate Positions - Sold 10+ at $35.23; 5 at $35.33 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $190.8)
Rationale: Energy infrastructure stocks have held up well during market downturns this year based in part on optimism that the Trump administration will not oppose new pipeline construction and will reduce regulatory costs.
The dividend yield at my sales prices is not that attractive to me. Harvesting long term capital gains of over 100% is attractive.
Owned WMB Bonds: 8
4 of the 4% SU Maturing on 9/15/25- FINRA Page
2 of the 3.7% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 - FINRA Page
2 of the 4.9% SU Maturing on 3/15/29 -FINRA.org
The 4.9% SU was the last one purchased. Item # 2.V. (2/5/25 Post) The total cost was slightly below par value.
G. Pared HIW - Sold 5 at $28.66:
Highwoods Properties Inc. - Office REIT
Proceeds: $143.21 |
| Page 22, Annual Report |
Top 20 Tenants as of 12/31/24:
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| Page 23 Annual Report |
Profit Snapshot: $29.77
New average cost per share: $20.24
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/17/25 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50 per share
HIW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
What is the most noteworthy about this dividend is that it was not cut during the pandemic or its aftermath. I am not aware of another office REIT that maintained its dividend during the 2020-2025 period. It has been a very rough 5 years for Office REITs.
The reason may simply that Highwoods properties are located in the south where the work-from-home trend was far less prevalent than other areas (e.g. NYC and SF)
Yield at $20.24 AC = 9.88%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/18/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): HIW Announces Fourth Quarter 2024 Results.pdf
Revenues: $205.526
GAAP E.P.S. = (.03)
FFO per share: $.85
GAAP to FFO Reconciliation:
Guides 2025 FFO per share to $3.26 -$3.44
Subsequent activity after end of quarter:
Most REITs now provide information on funds available for distribution. It is possible to fudge the total some by classifying an arguable maintenance expenditure which needs to be deducted in the FAD computation as a capital improvement that enhances the value of the property which is not deducted.
H. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.10:
Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc. - Primarily a Nursing Homes/Senior Living REIT
Proceeds: $171.01
Properties:
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| Page 7, Annual Report |
Management: Internal
Website: Sabra Health Care REIT
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.L. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $11.28 (5/13/23 Post); Item # 4.I. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $12.1; 2 at $11.67 (5/5/22 Post)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $19.66 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.47); Item # 2.J. Pared SBRA Again - Sold Highest Cost 7 Shares in Fidelity Account at $19.25 and Item # 2.K. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $19.22 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $79.17)
Profit Snapshot: $28.04
New Average cost per share this account: $12.17 (40+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/17/25 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share
SBRA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The dividend was slashed from $.45 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment due to tenant operating problems created by the pandemic.
Yield at $12.17 AC = 9.86%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/14/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
GAAP E.P.S. = $.19
Normalized FFO: $.35
Normalized AFFO: $.36
Reconciliation GAAP to Normalized AFFO:
For U.S. REITs, the primary adjustment to GAAP net income will be to add back the non-cash depreciation expense. Other significant adjustments may include to deduct realized gains from property sales and to add back stock compensation expense, which is a non-cash charge.
Revenues: $182.346M
2025 Guidance Normalized AFFO per share: $1.48-$1.51
I. Eliminated NBGNX - Sold 13+ at $62.86:
Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund Investor Overview
Proceeds: $876.33
NBGNX – Performance – Morningstar
NBGNX – Portfolio – Morningstar
Profit Snapshot: $52.37
Paid Annually
Per share Rounded
2024 $1.4
2023 $1.84
2022 $6
2021 $8.15
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added $50 to NBGNX at $56.25 (7/2/23 Post)
First Purchase ($250): Item # 1.H. (9/19/20 Post) Those shares received all of the dividends noted above.
Rationale: I will own several stock funds in small amounts and will jettison them when I am in a stock allocation reduction mode.
J. Pared BMY - Sold 7 at $62.04:
BMY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (non-GAAP)
Proceeds: $434.27
Profit Snapshot: $7.57
BMY SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (patent expirations at page 7)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.H. Bought 1 BMY at $51.71 (3/28/24 Post); Item # 1.E. Added to BMY - Bought 1 at $48.56; 1 at $48.32; 1 at $48.15 (2/9/24 Post)
Full Year 2024 Product Revenues vs. 2023:
New Average cost per share: $52.78 (28+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/17/25 |
Dividends: Quarterly at $.62 per share ($2.48 annually), last raised from $.60 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
BMY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I have turned off dividend reinvestment.
Yield at New AC = 4.7%
Next Ex Dividend: 4/4/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Most major pharma companies have what I would label messy earnings reports that result in huge percentage differences between GAAP and Non-GAAP E.P.S. Charges on generally concentrated in non-cash items.
Comparison are to the 2023 4th quarter.
Revenues: $12.342B, up from $11.477B
GAAP E.P.S. = $.04, down from $.87
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.67, down from $1.7
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
Product Revenues:
2025 Non-GAAP E.P.S. Guidance: $6.55-$6.85
Rationale: BMY has had and will continue having major problems with patent expirations which is keeping the stock at a low P/E relative to the current non-GAAP E.P.S. The TTM P/E on non-GAAP E.P.S. will generally be below 10 as will the P/E using forward 12 month estimates.
BMY has a huge revenue hole to fill after its main drug, Revlimid, lost patent exclusivity.
Revlimid Annual Revenues:
2024: $5.773B
2023: $6.097B
2022: $9.878B
2021: $12.821B
Certain third parties generic companies have U.S. volume restraints that expire on 1/31/26 (Annual Report at page 52)
Another major drug, Sprycel, stated to face generic competition in the U.S. last September.
The current best selling drug Eliquis was subject to a Medicare negotiated price reduction that will take effect in 2026. Medicare costs lowered for 10 drugs, including diabetes prescriptions 2024 revenue for that drug in the U.S. was $13.333B.
The estimated "minimum" U.S. minimum exclusivity for Opdivo is 2028, which is a major patent cliff. The date for Eliquis is also in 2028.
Last Eliminations: Item # 1.A. Eliminated BMY in Fidelty Account - Sold 14 at $74.64 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $206.75); Item # 2. Eliminated BMY in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 15+ at $77.56 (5/5/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $279.11)
K. Pared BBDC in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $10.76:
Proceeds: $107.6
Management: External
I own this BDC in 3 taxable accounts.
BBDC SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 33 and ends at page 68) Summary of investments starts at page F-10. A (26) next to the name, located in the note column, indicates that the loan is on nonaccrual status. The non-accrual loans are described more fully starting at page 82. "As of December 31, 2024, we had
Company Assessment of Loan Risks:
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| Pages 81-82 Annual Report |
Last Purchase Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to BBDC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $8.67 (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to BBDC - Bought 10 at $8.94 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 40 BBDC at $7,75 (7/15/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $18.97
New average cost per share this account -Schwab: $7.97 (23+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/17/25 |
The Schwab account has my smallest share position.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share (regular dividend only)
BBDC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
This BDC has scheduled three quarterly special dividends of $.05 per share. The first went ex dividend on 3/5/25.
Yield at New AC: 13.05% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/5/25 for regular and special
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Net Asset Value per share: $11.29, up 1 cent compared to 12/31/23.
NII per share: $.28
Weighted average yield on performing debt investments: 10.2%, down from 10.5% as of 12/31/23.
Investments by Type:
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| F-88, Annual Report |
Goal: As with all BDCs, the goal is simply to realize any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
Rationale: I have been selling my highest cost lots in several BDCs. If a recession develops, their stocks will generally go down more than stock indexes like the Russell 2000 or the S&P 500.
Another negative is that their floating rate loans, which are priced at spreads to a short term rate, have reset at lower coupons due to the Fed rate cuts. That has placed downside pressure on net investment income.
Owned SU Debt: I own 2 Barings BDC 3.3% SU bonds maturing on 11/23/26 that were bought at a total cost of 90.1 on 12/6/23, creating at that time a 7.066% YTM. Item # 4.B. (12/9/23 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org
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2. Corporate Bonds:
Since I published my last substantive posts on 2/10/25, I have continued buying $10,000 to $15,000 of investment grade corporate bond each week (principal amount). I will only be discussing a few purchases in this post.
I have been discussing some first mortgage bond purchases in YouTube videos: Becoming more conservative in my investments- More on Utility First Mortgage Bonds - YouTube; First Mortgage Bonds Issued by its Operating Subsidiaries of Duke Energy (DUK) - YouTube; First Lien Bonds & Today's Purchases - YouTube
I have built a bond ladder where I have a constant stream of proceeds from maturing securities each week. The ladder consists primarily of investment grade corporate bonds, Tennessee municipal bonds, and Treasury Bills, with a limited amount invested in short term FDIC CDs (no longer buying) and Treasury notes purchased primarily in the secondary market when the yields were over 5%.
In my Fidelity account, 1 of 4 taxable brokerage accounts, I had the following corporate bonds mature on 3/15/25:
I buy corporate bonds at discounts to par value. Consequently, the YTM will be higher than the coupon and current yield at my total cost.
All or almost all of the "profit" will be classified as realized market discount and taxed as interest income rather than a capital gain.
Fidelity Account Only - 2025 Realized Market Discount to Date: $2,007.84
For 2025, the total in this account will likely go over $6K.
For the bonds referenced in the previous snapshot that matured on 3/15/25, the "profit" classified as realized market discounts was $257.54:
As is my custom, I will replace a bond that will soon mature or has matured with a new bond purchase from the same issuer, provided my concerns about the credit risks has not changed and I can find one that has an acceptable - to me- remaining term and yield.
In my Fidelity account, I received $7,000 in proceeds from a maturing T Bill on 3/13/25:
I redeployed the proceeds into the following $1,000 par value corporate bond purchases (prices at 1/10th of par):
A. Bought 2 Campbells 4.15% SU Maturing on 3/15/28 at a Total Cost of 98.4:
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Issuer: Campbell's Co. (CPB)
CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I sold my highest cost 5 common shares into a rally:
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| Sold at $43.16 |
Last Discussed: Item # 5.D. Added 2 CPB at $37.29 (2/10/25 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to 2 CPB at $38.5; 2 at $37.9 (1/15/25 Post)
The future guidance given in the last earnings report was disappointing: SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 1/26/25
This SU bond purchase replaced the 2 that matured on 3/15/25.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.728%
I have some concern about the CPB credit risk given the total debt level, made worse by a recent acquisition, and a lackluster earnings history. That concern has not yet resulted in avoiding owning 2 senior unsecured bonds but has restrained owning more than 2 except for a brief period which in this case was 2 days. Campbell Completes Acquisition of Sovos Brands, Inc. (3/12/24).
B. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 5.15% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/15/34 at a Total Cost of 98.746:
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This bond was issued in August 2024. Prospectus
As with other first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy subsidiaries, the lien attaches to substantially all assets with certain exceptions listed in the prospectus (see page 7).
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.32%
Current Yield: 5.215%
When going out this far in a maturity, I want most of the yield in the current yield.
C. Bought 2 Kinder Morgan 4.3% SU Maturing on 3/1/28 at a Total Cost of 98.98:
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Issuer: Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI)
Purchased at 98.88
KMI SEC FilingsSEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
I have been paring my stock position.
Last Common Stock Discussions: Item # 2.A. Pared KMI Again -Sold 10 at $29.77 (1/22/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $157.73); (Item # 6.D. Pared KMI - Sold 10 at $28.38 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.75)
I currently own 70 shares with an average cost per share of $14.01 (yield at 8.21%, KMI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha):
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| Price as of close on 3/14/25 |
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.67%
I own 3 KMI 4.3% SU maturing on 6/1/25.
D. Bought 2 Fidelity National 4.5% SU Maturing on 8/15/28 at a Total Cost of 98.851:
Issuer: Fidelity National Financial Inc. (FNF)
FNF is not a bank holding company but a major real estate title insurer and is also in the annuity business.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
FNF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my common stock position.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.868%
Other Recent Utility First Mortgage Bond Purchases:
Operating results for Entergy (ETR) operating companies can be found in the ETR Annual and Quarterly reports filed with the SEC.
E. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/33 at a Total Cost of 99.095:
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Issuer: A operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
This bond was issued in May 2023: Prospectus
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.133%
F. Bought 1 Entergy Texas 5.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/35 at a Total Cost of $99.607:
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Issuer: A operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
This bond was issued in February 2025: Prospectus
Typical Make Whole Provision:
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| Page S-3 |
The make whole provision may require the issuer to make a premium payment to par value when exercising its optional redemption right. This will happen when interest rates have fallen sufficiently that it triggers the premium payment using the calculation in (1). The premium payment may be sufficiently high that it operates as call protection in practice. If interest rates have declined significantly below the coupon rate, the discounting mechanism using a comparable maturity treasury yield will slow the discounting to present value of the principal payment plus the sum of all remaining interest payments until maturity.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.3%
G. Added 5 ELC at $20.75 - Schwab Account:
Entergy Louisiana LLC Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066 (ELC)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds {I do not include in this post several categories of exchange traded bonds including trust preferred, synthetic floaters, SU notes tied to the performance of an index, and trust certificates, see Trust Certificates; Synthetic Floaters, Trust Preferred Securities, Item # 1 Principal Protected Notes, Item # 2 Principal Protected Notes. While those securities are exchange traded bonds, they have qualities that separate them from the baby bond category that are simply bonds traded like stocks with no quirkiness)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875% paid on the $25 par value
Discount to Par Value at $20.75 = 17%
Yield at $20.75 = 5.87%
Calculation: .04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $20.75 total cost = 5.8735%
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
Call protection has expired. Call protection only protects the owner from an early call when interest rates have fallen.
I am not concerned about a call since I will realized a 17% "profit" on this 5 share lot when and if Entergy Louisiana calls at par value. I want the issuer to call the bond at par value. The "profit" of $4.25 per share mitigates the interest rate risk associated with a decline in interest rates, losing this bond due to an early call, and then having to reinvest the proceeds in a lower yielding bond.
If this bond was bought at par value, the asymmetric interest rate in favor of the issue would increase since the owner would still have all of the downside price risk when rates are rising and no "profit" when and if the bond is called due to a significant decline in rates.
With or without call protection or a make whole provision which exchange traded bonds do not have, the owner still has the interest rate risk that interest rates will rise, causing a price decline in the bond which has happened to this bond's price since the interest rates started to trend higher starting in 2022.
Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/28/25
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 5 ELC at $21.25 - Fidelity Account (2/10/25 Post); Item #7.A. Added 5 ELC in Vanguard Taxable Account at $21.15 (1/15/25 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $21.29 and Item #1.C. Added to ELC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.15 (1/1/25 Post)
Position in my Schwab Account: 50 shares
Average cost per share: $21.21
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| Price as of close 3/17/24 |
I am working my way up slowly to 100 shares in each of 3 taxable accounts.
Managing a Bond Ladder:
My bond ladder consists of investment grade corporate bonds, treasury bills and notes, CDs and municipal bonds. I will generally maintained a significant allocation to Treasury MM funds which I do not include in the bond ladder.
I discussed this topic in a YouTube video. Managing a Bond Ladder Portfolio - YouTube
When building a ladder, I need information on time gaps in the ladder but that is difficult to know without a system that tracks what I already own. These securities are owned in 4 taxable accounts. Even within an account, the securities are not arranged by maturity but by CUSIP number or just randamonly (Vanguard).
To address this problem, I take snapshots of each purchase when made and then arrange them by maturity.
I place the snapshots in separate annual folders.
"Bond Ladder" Folder Snapshot:
I then arrange the snapshots within each annual folder by month and by week when the maturities are close in time.
If I have multiple trades for 1 security, I will place them in a folder and then indicate by a number in () how many that I own.
This is a snapshot of my upcoming maturities between 3/20/25 and 4/4/25 arranged by week:
Since I will frequently replace a corporate bond about to mature (or recently matured) with a bond purchase from the same issuer, I also need to see when bonds from an issuer are about to mature, or simply search by name for bonds in my "Bond Ladder Folder" to quickly discover what I own and when the bonds mature. It is not like I can keep this information in my head. I probably own over 400 different corporate bonds, many of those are from the same issuer but have different maturities. This would be similar to a broad based bond fund like iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (IGSB), except mine is more similar to a zero to 3 year corporate bond fund with still minor but growing exposure in the 4th year - 2029. My weighted average YTM would be higher than that fund as would my total return. IGSB has a 3 year annual average total return of just 1.79% through 12/31/24 or less than the annual average dividend yield.
My 1987 Mercedes 260E: I mentioned in my last YouTube video that I would include a photo of my vintage mint condition Mercedes in this post:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
