Economy:
October CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M10 Results
Month-To-Month All Items: .02%
Month-To-Month Core: .03%
Annual All Items: 2.6%
Annual Core: 3.3%
The annual numbers are not seasonally adjusted.
Owners Equivalent Rent: +5.2% annual, with month-to-month at .4%, up from .3%. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2024 M10 Results
The third quarter report from Celanese, a large chemical producer, may be an early sign of trouble for the U.S. economy, which I discussed in a comment published on 11/8/24.
"During the third quarter, Celanese continued to navigate persistent demand weakness across key end-markets like paints, coatings, and construction, as well as rapid and acute downturns in Western Hemisphere automotive and industrial segments. . . Celanese will continue to take actions commensurate with the current demand environment. To this end, the Company intends to temporarily reduce the quarterly dividend by approximately 95 percent beginning in the first quarter of 2025." The company is reducing manufacturing costs during the 4th quarter by temporarily idling production facilities in every region. The company intends to draw down its $1M term credit facility in the first quarter to pay off $1.3B in maturing debt. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
A significant decline in chemical production can be a leading indicator of a recession about to develop.
I am still adding to DOW in 1 share lots.
Celanese closed at $123.5 on 11/4/24 and at $84.8 last Friday, 11/8. Celanese Corporation (CE) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance
I am now focused on what Trump does that will have economic impacts, rather than what he says that he will do. I do not need more proof that he is crazy and rarely makes an accurate factual statement.
The main subject areas relating to my investment decisions are (1) increases in tariffs; (2) mass deportation of American consumers and workers; (3) tax cuts including eliminating the tax on SS benefits; and (4) budget cuts that may reduce GDP growth including any effort to impound funds authorized by existing laws including those provided in the Inflation Reduction Act - Wikipedia. Trump said last September that he would "rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act." US climate leader calls Trump's threatened IRA rollbacks 'a fool's errand' - ABC News
My Video: Trump Policies - Potential Impact on Inflation and GDP Growth - YouTube
I discussed Trump's threats to impound authorized funds in a YT video: Trump's Proposal To Impound Funds Authorized by Congress pursuant to laws that he does not like - YouTube
What Trump mass deportation plan would mean for immigrants and economy
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ - YouTube Starting at 1:30, there is a factual discussion of what happened to the prices of washing machines when Trump increased tariffs on imports. The U.S. importer, who paid the tariff, increased the price of the imported washing machine to recoup the tariff and domestic manufacturers increased their prices as well. The price of dryers, which were not impacted by the tariff, went up as well. The increased price of washing machines created an opportunity to increase the price of a related product that is often bought at the same time.
A number of Trump's proposals will reduce federal spending. Unfortunately, U.S. GDP growth is significantly dependent on the federal government spending more than $1 Trillion of borrowed money annually.
National Deficit | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
For the government's fiscal year ending 9/30/1980, the total federal government debt was $909 billion.
Historical Debt Outstanding | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Federal Debt to GDP:
Understanding the National Debt | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Long before Trump announced that he was running again, I expressed the opinion that cutting the fiscal year budget deficit quickly by 1/3rd to 1/2 would cause a recession and lower government revenue. I would add that deporting 11 million consumers living in the U.S. would also lower GDP growth and would harm the states that depend on sales tax revenues created by their purchases.
I can not change what is about to happen, but can only respond by adjusting my investment portfolio as economic events unfold.
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $22,000 in principal amount
Treasury Note Purchased in the Secondary Market: $4,000 in principal amount (Treated as fillers in my bond ladder)
Corporate Bond Sold (1): Proceeds of $968 with a $59.14 profit realized on the 1 bond, sold based on my new heightened credit risk assessment of the BDC Prospect Capital
Outflow Individual Common Stocks: -$3,363.69
(Consisting of $3,733.94 in proceeds minus $370.25 in purchases; realized gains at +$881.49)
Outflow Stock Funds: -$4,234.8 (realized gain = +$1,374)
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$7,598.49
Realized Gains Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in this post): +$2,255.49
Exchange Traded Bond: +$124.35
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$58,940.27 (discussed in posts)
The actual outflow would be several thousand dollars higher when adding net sales that have not been discussed.
++++
1. Stock Fund Sells:
A. Sold 50 Shares of PRWCX at $38.94:
Quote: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview
Proceeds: $1,947
PRWCX is my largest mutual fund position.
This is my first sell transaction. The position dates back to 2015.
The fund is closed to new investors.
Position Prior to Pare: 1,053.595 shares
Price as of 11/7/24 Close |
Profit Snapshot: +$967.35
Remaining Position: 1,003.595 shares
Average cost per share: Unchanged at $19.59 per share
Since the tax cost basis uses average cost rather than FIFO, there is no change in my average cost when I sell shares, but only when I buy.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Added to PRWCX - Bought $250 at $33.66 (12/23/23 Post)
Dividends: Paid annually
PRWCX Stock Dividend History & Date
I have been taking the dividends in cash for several years and have been using the payments to partially fund living expenses.
Per share Dividend/My Payment - Recent History
2023 = $1.4075 ($1,482.93)
2022 = $2.8079 ($2,958.39)
2021 = $3.41 ($3,592.76)
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Stock Price | Morningstar (rated at 5 stars)
PRWCX – Portfolio – Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66:
Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund - Investor Class (VHCOX)
Proceeds: $181.32
Sponsor's website: VHCOX (closed to new investors)
Expense Ratio: .43%
Number of Stocks: 191 as of 9/30/24
Profit Snapshot: +$100.69
Position after pare: 65+ shares
Price as of 11/6/24 Close |
Average cost: $40.31
I can not reduce the the AC by selling my highest cost shares. This tax cost basis is not based on FIFO accounting but on average cost, so all shares have been assigned the same AC.
Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/24:
Dividends: Paid Annually in December (some intra-year special dividends)
Last Annual Payment:
$1.81 rounded down |
VHCOX – Portfolio – Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.D. Added to VHCOX - Bought $250 (12/23/23 Post)
Original Purchase - 2013: Most of my position originated from a $3,000 purchase made in 2013. Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73/02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35)
C. Sold 5 FZROX at $20.77; 5 at $21.01:
Quote: Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund Overview
Proceeds: $208.9
Sponsor's website: FZROX
Expense Ratio: Zero
A similar low cost ETF is the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) which has a .03% expense ratio.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.K. Added 50 FZROX at $8.57 (4/4/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $115.57
I can not reduce the AC per share by selling the highest cost lots. Average cost per share accounting is being used.
Dividend: Paid Annually
I view the dividend on any U.S. total stock market fund as immaterial.
FZROX – Morningstar (rated at 3 stars)
D. Eliminated FCVSX - Sold 12+ at $36.03:
Quote: Fidelity Convertible Securities Fund Overview
Proceeds: $449.26
Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added $50 to FCVSX at $32.24 (3/1/24 Post)
Sponsor's website: FCVSX
Expense Ratio: .71%
Profit Snapshot: $33.44
Dividend: Paid Semiannually
Last 2 Dividends: $.52 per share
Yield at $36.03 Using $.52 annual: 1.44%
I view the dividend yield to be immaterial.
FCVSX-Morningstar (rated 4 stars)
ETF Alternatives:
iShares Convertible Bond ETF | ICVT (expense ratio .2%)
CWB: SPDR® Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF (expense ratio .4%)
E. Eliminated TY - Sold 15 at $33.8:
Quote: Tri-Continental Corp. Overview - Stock CEF
Proceeds: $506.99
TY was one of the CEFs formed prior to the 1929 stock market crash that survived the Great Depression. The IPO date was 1/14/1929.
Sponsor's website: Tri-Continental Corporation
Expense Ratio: .66%
Tri-Continental Corporation - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24 (As of 6/30/24, the value of investments was reported at $1.848+B with a cost of $1.493+B)
Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/24:
Profit Snapshot: $97.64
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Added to TY - Bought 5 at $26.44 (11/18/23 Post); Item # 1.G. Bought 10 TY at $27.72 (9/2/23 Post)
Data Date of 11/6/24 Trade:
Closing Market Price: $38.34
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $33.76
Discount: -11.95%
Average 3 Year Discount: -11.76%
Sourced: TY-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate.
I have taken the dividends in cash.
Tri-Continental Corporation (TY)-Morningstar
Last Elimination: Item # .H. Eliminated TY - Sold 10 at $33.5 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15)
F. Pared CALF - Sold 5 Shares at $48.25:
Proceeds: $241.25
Sponsor's website: CALF | Pacer ETFs
I view free cash flow yield to be a valid investment criteria for stock selection, but using it in isolation from others may result in some stocks being selected that will perform poorly.
Using this metric as the sole criteria will lead to some stocks being included that are only temporarily generating good free cash flow and that is recognized by market participants who value the stock with a low P/E recognizing that the past 12 months is not likely to be repeated in subsequent reporting periods.
For this fund, free cash flow is calculated by subtracting capital expenditures from cash flow. The resulting number is then divided by enterprise value (market capitalization plus debt minus cash and cash equivalents).
Expense Ratio: .59%
Profit Snapshot = $.6
New Average cost per share: $41.52 (31 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 11/7/24 |
Dividend: Paid semiannually.
CALF Stock Dividend History & Date
I view the dividend yield as immaterial without a capital gains distribution. The last one was in 2021.
Some Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Added to CALF - Bought 1 at $42,96; 1 at $43.49 (9/19/24 Post); Item # 2.H. Added to CALF - Bought 3 at $42.33 (7/12/24 Post); Item # 1.D. Added to CALF - Bought 2 at $42.96 (7/5/24 Post);Item # 2.H. Bought 1 CALF at $33.5 (6/22/22 Post); Item # 2.O. Bought 1 CALF at $37.52; 2 at $36.48 (5/26/22 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in CALF - Sold 8+ at $42.18 - Schwab Account (9/2/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.38)
CALF Page at Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
G. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 10 at $33.58:
Quote: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF
Proceeds: 335.84
Sponsor's website: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)
Expense Ratio: .68%
Profit Snapshot: $30.14
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Added to BOTZ - Bought 1 $30.56; 1 at $29.29; 3 at $29.54 4(8/2/24 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 9 at $26.53 (5/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.39); Item # 1.J. Sold 5 BOTZ at $39.02 (10/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $74.52)
BOTZ - Morningstar (unrated)
BOTZ – Portfolio: Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
H. Eliminated ARTY -Sold 10 at $36.12:
Quote iShares Future AI & Tech ETF OverviewProceeds: $364.24
The symbol changed to ARTY from IRBO shortly after I bought this ETF.
Last Discussed: Item #6.B. Added to IRBO- Bought 1 at $33.1; 4 at $32.12 (8/2/24 Post)
Sponsor's website: iShares Future AI & Tech ETF | ARTY
Profit Snapshot: $28.57
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.I. Eliminated IRBO - Sold 2 at $33.5 (10/2/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.87)
ARTY- Morningstar Rated at 2 stars.
ARTY – Portfolio –-Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings
2. Corporate Bonds:
The trades discussed below were made through last Friday.
A. Bought 2 Textron 4% SU Maturing on 3/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.051:
Issuer: Textron Inc. (TXT)
TXT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TXT SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.724%
Current Yield at TC: 4.038%
B. Bought 2 Cubesmart LP 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.26:
Issuer: Operating entity for CubeSmart (CUBE), a storage REIT, who guarantees the notes. Prospectus
CUBE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
I have a small ball position in the common stock. (Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Pared CUBE Again - Sold 1 at $53.25 (9/24/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.28) I currently own 9 shares with an average cost per share at $21.19. {Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Bought 19 CUBE at $22, 2 at $21.55, 1 at $19.74 (4/25/20 Post)}
My last purchase of this 4% SU bond was at a total cost of 97.723 which created at that time a YTM of 5.68%. Item # 6.A. (6/14/24 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.799%
Current Yield at TC = 4.03%
I now own 10 bonds and will not be buying more.
Instead, I will start to extend the maturity by buying the 3.125% Cubesmart SU bond that matures on 9/1/2026. I discuss my first purchase of that note in Item 1.C. below.
C. Bought 2 Cubesmart L.P. 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/26 at a Total Cost of 97.17:
Issuer: See Item 1.B. above.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.765%
Current yield at TC: 3.216%
D. Bought 2 AON 3.875% SU Maturing on 12/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.207:
Issuer: Aon PLC (AON)
AON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.616%
Current Yield at TC = 3.906%
I am starting to replace the 4 AON 3.5% SU that matured on 6/14/24:
Last Bond Offering (2/24):
This debt raise was to finance the acquisition of NFP. Aon completes acquisition of NFP to bring more capability to clients - Apr 25, 2024; Aon to acquire NFP, a leading middle-market provider of risk, benefits, wealth and retirement plan advisory solutions - Dec 20, 2023
E. Bought 2 CNA Financial 4.5% SU Maturing on 3/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.653:
Issuer: CNA Financial Corp. (CNA)
CNA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CNA SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.77%
Current Yield at TC = 4.516%
Last Bond Offering (2/24): Prospectus for $500M 5.125% SU maturing in 2034. The proceeds were used to redeem a 3.95% SU maturing on 5/15/24.
F. Bought 2 Welltower 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.453:
Issuer: Welltower Inc. (WELL) - A REIT
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.655%
Current Yield at TC = 4.273%
I currently own 5 Welltower 4% SU notes that mature on 6/1/25.
G. Bought 2 Ameren 3.65% SU Maturing on 2/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.751:
Issuer: Ameren Corp (AEE) - Utility Holding Company
AEE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
AEE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.668%
Current Yield at TC: 3.696%
Ameren's operating utilities issue first mortgage bonds that will have higher credit ratings than the SU debt issued by the holding company.
I currently own 2 Ameren Illinois 3.25% first mortgage bonds that mature on 3/1/25 that are rated at A1/A. Bond Page | FINRA.org The other operating subsidiary is known as Union Electric doing business as Ameren Missouri. That entity recently sold $450M of a 5.125% First Mortgage bond maturing in 2055. Prospectus
H. Bought 2 W.P. Carey 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.201 - IB Account:
Issuer: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) - A REIT
SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.693%
Current Yield at TC: 4.284%
I now own 6 bonds.
I own 10 WP Carey 4% SU bonds that mature on 2/1/25.
I had 4 WP Carey 4.6% SU bonds mature on 4/1/24:
I. Bought 2 General Motors Finance 4.3% SU Maturing on 7/13/25 at a Total Cost of 99.777:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Co. (GM) who does not guarantee the notes.
GM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
GM SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.634%
Current Yield at TC = 4.31%
I refer to this kind of purchase as can kicking down the road.
I had 2 General Motors Finance 3.5% SU notes mature on 11/6/24:
IB Account +$24.76 |
I have 2 General Motors Finance 4% SU maturing on 1/15/25.
I have 2 General Motors 4.35% SU maturing on 4/9/25.
I own 2 General Motors Finance 4% SU maturing on 4/17/25.
J. Bought 1 Ventas LP 4.125% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.304:
Issuer: Operating entity of Ventas Inc. (VTR) who guarantees the notes.
SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 9/30/24
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 SU debt is listed at page 15
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.736%
Current Yield at TC: 4.154%
I now own 3 bonds.
I own 5 Ventas LP 3.5% SU notes, guaranteed by Ventas, that mature on 2/1/25
K. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 4.1% SU Maturing on 6/3/26 at a Total Cost of 99.175:
Issuer: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
WFC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
WFC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3
YTM at Total Cost: 4.653%
Current Yield at TC: 4.134%
L. Bought 2 PPL Capital 3.1% SU Maturing on 5/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.702:
Issuer: PPL Funding, guaranteed by PPL Corp. (PPL) - a utility holding company.
PPL SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 9/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.696%
Current Yield at TC = 3.173%
Last Bond Offering: Prospectus for 5.25% SU note maturing in 2034
3. Regional Bank Stock Eliminations - Taxable Accounts Only:
Most of the eliminations occurred in my Vanguard Roth IRA account. I do not discuss stock trades made in the RI accounts. All regional bank stocks were eliminated in that RI account. Today 11/14/24, I finished eliminating all regional bank stocks in another Roth IRA account.
The regional bank stocks rallied strongly on 11/6 based IMO on a mistaken belief that an anticipated more favorable regulatory environment during Trump's second term would solve what are continuing operating problems among many of these banks that includes NIM contraction and negative year -over-year declines in E.P.S. Many are starting to experience higher nonperforming loans and charge-offs (e.g. office building loans).
On 11/6/24, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose $7.93 or 13.41%. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance
I already knew about these negative trends since I had already reviewed third quarter reports when this sector went into overdrive on 11/6 based on hopium that Trump's regulatory policies would make some material difference.
Gateway Post: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
A. Eliminated FHN - Sold 25 at $19.89:
Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Proceeds: $497.31
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Added to FHN - Bought 5 at $11.5 (9/16/23 Post); Item # 3.F. Added to FHN - Bought 5 at $9.51 (5/13/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $155.65
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 annually), last raised from $.14 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. The dividend was slashed from $.45 to $.20 effective for the 2008 second quarter payment and then slashed again to $.01 effective for the 2011 second quarter.
Dividend History: I rate the history as poor.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Net Income: $213M
GAAP E.P.S. $.4, up from $.23
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.42, up from .$27
NIM: 3.31%, up from 3.17%
Efficiency Ratio: 61.89%
Charge Off Ratio: .15%
NPL Ratio: .92%, viewed by me as high given the current U.S. economic expansion.
Largest Gains: Item # 1. Eliminated FHN - Sold 5 at $24.38; 20+ at $24.47; and 47+ at $24.38 (11/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,071.04); Item # 1. Pared FHN in Fidelity Account - Sold 450 at $24.33 (11/1/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,261.77)
FHN Realized Gains to Date: $3,201.72
B. Eliminated CVBF - Sold 10 at $21.44; 5 at $23- Two Accounts:
Quote: CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF)
Proceeds: $329.39
CVBF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $83.32
Last Discussed: Item #3.B. Started CVBF Again - Bought 10 at $16.43 (8/21/24 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share, last raised from $.19 effective for the 2022 4th quarter payment. The dividend was at $.10 in 2014.
CVBF Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
E.P.S. = $.37, down from $.42
NIM = 3.05%, down from 3.31%
Net interest income declined compared to the 2023 3rd Q:
Efficiency Ratio: 46.53%
NPA Ratio: .15%
Charge off ratio: Net recovery of $157K
ROTCE: 14.93%
Risk Based Capital Ratio: 16.6%
Tangible Book Value per share: $10.17
Extremely Poor Interest Rate Risk Management in Owned Securities Portfolio (normal for regional banks):
Note the last sentence where the bank stated that it sold during the 3rd quarter AFS securities with a book value of $312M at an $11.6M loss but still had a an unrealized loss in its portfolio of $712.543M unnetted with a small unrealized gain.
Average Weighted Yield on Owned Securities: 2.67%
10-Q at page 10
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 6.D. Eliminated CVBF - Sold 18+ at $19.14 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $75.39)
Largest Gain: Item # 4.A. Eliminated CVBF - Sold 10 at $25.7; 5 at $25.66 (12/27/2022 Post)(profit snapshots = $129.6)
CVBF Realized Gains to Date: $354.11
C. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in HTBK - Sold 70 at $10.7:
Quote: Heritage Commerce Corp. (HTBK)
Proceeds: $749.23
HTBK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 4.J. Pared Duplicate HTBK Position - Bought 5+ at $10.11 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.58)
Profit Snapshot: Net of $105.25
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.H. Added to HTBK in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $8.57 - Vanguard Account (12/2/23 Post); Item # 3.B. Added 5 HTBK at $6.9 - Vanguard Account (5/13/23 Post); Item # 2.A. Added 5 HTBK at $7.92 - Vanguard Account (4/22/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share, last raised from $.12 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
HTBK Stock Dividend History & Date
The total return with the dividend was acceptable to me.
The lack of meaningful dividend growth among regional bank stocks over the past 5 years is a negative but understandable given the pandemic, the bank failures during that period due to deposit runs, and the negative impacts flowing from the Federal Reserve's monetary policies including the artificial suppression of interest rates through Q/E and ZIRP followed by the rapid increase in the federal funds rate starting in March 2022.
Last Ex Dividend: 11/7/24
I sold on the ex dividend date.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
E.P.S. $.17, down from $.24
NIM: 3.17%, down from 3.57%
Efficiency Ratio: 65.37%, up from 52.89% (up is bad)
ROTCE: 8.27% (below average)
NPA Ratio: .13% (good)
NPL Ratio: .21% (good)
Consider to Repurchase Price: <$8
My consider to repurchase prices assumes that no intervening event has occurred that would cause me to lower my consider to repurchase price (e.g. a recession)
For a regional bank stock, other considerations for lowering the price would be continued year-over-year declines in earnings, significant increases in the NPL and Charge Off ratios, and unfavorable trends in NIM.
A significant improvement in NIM could result in a higher consider to repurchase price.
See Item # 3.C. Above.
Proceeds: $829.59
Profit Snapshot: Net of $115.43
The average cost per share in this account was at $9.18, creating a dividend yield of 5.66%.
HTBK Realized Gains to Date: $256.05
E. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HOPE - Sold 22 at $14.12:
Quote: Hope Bancorp Inc. (HOPE)
Proceeds:$310.63
HOPE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $33.04
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share, last raised from $.13 effective for the 2018 second quarter payment. The dividend was at $.10 in 2014. Hope Bancorp, Inc. Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 11/7/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
GAAP E.P.S.: $.20, down from $.25
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.21
NIM: 2.55%, down from 2.83%
Efficiency Ratio: 69.57% (too high IMO)
Net Interest Income: $104.809M down from $135.378M
NPL Ratio: .76%, up from .42%
Coverage ratio: 147.62%, down from 261.8%
F. Eliminated SBSI - Sold 5 at $37.51:
Quote: Southside Bancshares
Proceeds: $187.53
SBSI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $55.21
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Restarted SBSI - Bought 5 at $26.46 (7/12/24 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Next Ex Dividend: 11/21/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. = $.68, up from $.60
NIM: 2.95%, down from 3.02%
All of the following numbers are good.
Efficiency Ratio: 51.9%
Charge Off Ratio: .04%
NPA Ratio: .09%
NPL Ratio: .17%
Coverage Ratio: 610.37%
ROTCE: 13.69%
Tangible Book Value per share: $19.87, up from $17.28
SBSI Realized Gains to Date: $646.14
Largest Gains - Over $90: Item # 2.F. Eliminated SBSI-Sold 25 at $30.03 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 3 Sold 107+ SBSI at $20.5 (7/18/11 Post)(profit snapshots = $208.69)
Current Position: None
Consider to repurchase range: $25 to $30.
G. Eliminated TRST - Sold 5 at $37.81:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp. (TRST)
Proceeds: $189.5
Profit Snapshot: $56.05
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Restarted TRST - Bought 5 at $26.6 5 (6/20/24 Post) I discussed the 2024 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
TRST Stock Dividend History & Date
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter
E.P.S. = $.68, down from $.77
NIM: 2.61%, down from 2.85% (Neither number is good, and the trend is a matter of concern)
Net Interest Income: $38.671M, down from $42.121M
NPL Ratio: .38%, up from .36%
Coverage ratio: 256.9%
Average Interest Rate Owned Securities (available for sale) = 2.51%
Pathetic interest rate risk management which was the norm for banks in the 2021 to present period who continued to own low interest rate and longer term securities even though it was obvious in 2021 that short term rates would have to rise dramatically and Q/E would end.
Some Sell Discussions: There was a 1 for 5 reverse stock split in 2021. Item # 3.C. Eliminated TRST in Fidelity Account - Sold 41+ at $30.33 (2/2/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = net of $31.36); Item # 2.C. Eliminated TRST in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 5 at $36.84; 5 at $37.02 (3/11/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $41.28); Item # 3.A. Eliminated TRST in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 20 at $38 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $129.4).
The following sales were made prior to the reverse stock split. Item # 3.G. Eliminated TRST-Sold 15+ in Schwab Taxable at $7.45 and 40+ in Fidelity Taxable at $7.44 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $111); Item # 1.D. Pared TRST-Sold 10 at $6.72 (1/9/21 Post); Item # 3.A. Eliminated TRST Sold 56+ at $8.8 (11/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.51); Item # 2.B. Sold 125 TRST at $8.6 (11/2/19 Post); Item # 2 Sold 100 TRST at $6.69 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 1 Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post)(largest gain to date = $549.47); Sold 50 TRST at $7.29 (11/25/13 Post); Sold 308 TRST at $6.64 (10/28/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $238.38)(on a reverse split adjusted basis, the sales price was $33.2)
TRST Realized Gains to Date: $1,559.59
Current Position: None.
Consider to Repurchase: <$28
H. Eliminated Duplicate Position in UBFO - Sold 10 at $9.05:
Quote: United Security Bancshares (UBFO)
Proceeds: $90.5
Profit Snapshot: +$5.6
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Added 10 UBFO at $5.92 (4/22/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added 5 UBFO at $6.17 (4/6/23 Post); Item # 1.D. Started UBFO - Bought 10 at $6.29 (4/1/23 Post) I still own those shares.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, last raised from $.11 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/7/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter.
E.P.S. $.22, unchanged
NIM: 4.2%, up from 4.09%
Net Interest Income: $11.812M, down slightly from $11.921M, but up from $11.522M in the 2024 second quarter:
Efficiency Ratio: 52.47%, down from 54,63% (down is good)
NPL Ratio: 1.32% (too high IMO), down from 1.45%
Charge off ratio: .27%, up from .2%
Tangible Book Value per share: $7.67, up from $6.45
Remaining Position: 25 shares with an average cost per share at $6.12 (dividend yield at AC = 7.84%; discount to TBV per share as of 9/30 was 20.2%)
I. Eliminated Last Fractional Share in BRKL Purchased with Dividend:
Quote: Brookline Bancorp (BKRL)
Proceeds: $3.06
Brookline Bancorp, Inc.-Corporate Profile
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2. E. Bought 5 BRKL at $8.24 (6/28/24 Post); Item # 2.B. Added 5 BRKL at $8.23 (11/11/2023 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.F. Pared BKRL - Sold 13+ at $10.16 (1/20/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $.63
New Average cost per share: $8.31 (23 Shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 11/6/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually), last from $.13 effective for the 2022 4th quarter.
BRKL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 6.5%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/15/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter.
E.P.S. $.23, down from $.26
NIM: 3.07%, down from 3.19%
Efficiency Ratio: 64.85% (too high IMO)
ROTCE: 8.44% (too low IMO)
Charge off ratio: .16%, down from .47%
NPA Ratio: .62%, up from .46%
Tangible Book Value per share: $10.09, up from $9.11
Discount of $8.31 AC per share to TBV: 16.75%
4. Other Small Ball Sells:
Most of my stock and stock fund selling is related to my risk management, taking into consideration that I do not have to take any risks, the current yields of risk free investments in treasury bills, and the current yields of low credit risk, short term investment grade bonds.
The return of my money is more important to me than the return on my money.
Risk management involves lowering my dollar allocation to stocks.
This may be accomplished simply by eliminating positions as I have recently done with regional bank stocks.
Another method, reflected in Items A. and B. below, is to profitably sell small lots or selling shares profitably that have been bought with dividends.
The 5 MFC share sell did not reduce my average cost per share. The 5 WMB share sell only reduced my average cost per share 1 cent.
Most of the time, using either FIFO or specific identification methods of tax cost allocations, I sell my highest cost lots that reduce my dollar exposure, increases my dividend yield, reduces my tax bite, and lowers my average cost per share.
I still have a meaningful stock allocation, but the allocation as a percentage of my total portfolio is close to 10%.
A. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $55.68:
Quote: Williams Cos. (WMB) -Energy Infrastructure Company
Proceeds: $278.39
Last Discussed: Item # 4.D. Sold 5 WMB at $52.28 (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.2)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2 Added 95 WMB at $24.98 and 5 at $23.8 (8/20/21 Post); Item # 3.B. Added 5 WMB at $24.2 (10/8/21 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$158.29
New Average cost per share: $23.89 (65+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 per share ($1.9 annually), last raised from $.4475 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Williams Companies, Inc - Dividend History
Yield at $23.89: 7.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24 (owned 95+ as of)
Revenues: $2.653B
GAAP E.P.S. $.58
Funds from Operations: $1.445B
FFO Dividend Coverage: 2.65
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.C. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $50.3; 5 at $51.31 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $267.84); Item # 2.A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $251.11); Item # 1.B. Sold 5 WMB at $45.29 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.34); Item # 3.C. Pared WMB - Sold 4 at $40.27 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.02); Item # 1.A. Pared WMB - Sold 10 at $36.12 (1/12/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.61); Item # 6.A. Eliminated WMB Duplicate Positions - Sold 10+ at $35.23; 5 at $35.33 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $190.8)
WMB Realized Gains to Date: $1,309.49 (excludes gains in my Roth IRA accounts)
WMB SU Bonds Owned:
6 of the 3.9% Maturing on 1/15/25 (as those bonds near maturity, I will buy in advance of the maturity date 6 WMB bonds to replace them)
4 of the 4% Maturing on 9/15/25 (a 2 bond purchase will be discussed in my next post)
I had 4 WMB 4.55% SU bonds mature on 6/24/24
B. Pared MFC Again Sold 5 Shares at $32.28:
Quote: Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)Proceeds: $161.43
CAD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
The CAD has recently weakened against the USD. That will cause the USD priced shares to underperform the shares priced in CADs and will also lower my dividend yield. Over the past 3 months through 11/8, MFC:CA was up 28.46% compared to +26.75% for MFC.
MFC SEC Filings (foreign issuer forms)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Pared MFC Again - Sold 5 at $30.36 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.9); Item # 2.B. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $29.29 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.44, discussed second quarter earnings report, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24)
Profit Snapshot: +$104.39
Average cost per share: $11.41 (85 Shares)
The average cost will remain the same since I am sourcing the small ball sells from the same 100 share purchase at $11.41. Item # 2.D. Bought 100 MFC at $11.41 (5/9/2020 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.40 per share
Dividend in USDs: Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) Stock Dividend History & Date
Next Ex Dividend: 11/20/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Life insurance company accounting is beyond my comprehension and I have never owned enough stocks in that sector to make it worthwhile to learn something that I do want to spend time learnings, particularly since I would be unlikely to retain the understanding achieved after many weeks of study. I also have zero training in accounting.
In CADs |
Core E.P.S. C$1
USD equivalent: $.73 with the consensus at $.68 per Schwab
Core Earnings: C$1.839B
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers)
Morningstar (11/7/24): 2 stars with a fair value estimate of $25.2 and no moat
S&P (11/8/24): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $36, raised $2 in response to the third quarter earnings report. s
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.G. Eliminated Duplicate Position in MFC - Sold 14 at $20.1 - Fidelity Account (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.61); Item # 1.A. Sold 32 MFC at $20.63 (2/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $104.79); Item # 2.A. Sold 20 MFC at $18.78 (11/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.69);
South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Sold 100 MFC at $18.28 (profit = $481.06; IB Account):
Another round-trip, which was not discussed, generated at a $44.81 profit:
RI Account |
Other small gains were not discussed.
Lowest Prices Paid in Last 5 years: Item # 2.C. Bought in Fidelity Account 10 MFC at $10.15; 2 at $9.3; 2 at $8.9 (5/9/20 Post) Those lots have been sold.
MFC Realized Gains to Date: $1,128.68
Owned Reset Equity Preferred: MFC-PM.TO, resets in a few days for five years at a 2.36% spread to the five year Canadian bond yield; Item # 2.A. Bought 100 MFCPRM:CA at C$15.14 (7/25/20 Post)
Owned SU Bond: 2 SU 4.15% Maturing on 3/4/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
C. Eliminated BEN - Sold 5 at $21.48:
Quote: Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) - Asset Manager
Proceeds: $107.38
Last Discussed: Item # 1A. Started BEN - Bought 5 at $19.75 (8/29/24 Post) I discussed the second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release I bought that lot on the day the company reported an SEC investigation into BEN's Western Asset Management Unit and its allocation of derivative trades among managed accounts. The stock declined that day 12.56%. I mentioned that it was impossible for an individual investor to quantify the potential legal exposure.
I decided to exit the position after BEN announced in its third quarter earnings release "preliminary net loss of $84.7 million or $0.19 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2024". There was a $389.2M impairment charge relating to certain mutual fund management contracts. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Several brokers downgraded the stock and/or reduced their price targets. I decided that this one was not worth owning.
BEN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $8.63
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share
5. Small Ball Buys:
A. Started BCE - Bought 5 at $27.9; 5 at $27.4:
Cost: $276.5
BCE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
BCE SEC Filings (foreign issuer forms)
2023 SEC Filed Annual Information Form A description of BCE's businesses can be found at pages 5-15.
Recent Material News: BCE to acquire Ziply Fiber, accelerating its fibre growth strategy across North America The cost is about C$5B in cash and the assumption of about C$2B in debt. BCE will "use estimated C$4.2 billion net proceeds from sale of its ownership stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) towards funding the Acquisition." BCE sells its minority stake in MLSE | BCE Inc. In connection with these developments, "BCE intends to maintain its annual common share dividend at the current level of $3.99 per share during the financial year ending December 31, 2025" and will "pause dividend growth until BCE's dividend payout and net debt leverage ratios are tracking towards our target policy ranges, subject to review annually by the BCE Board of Directors." Ziply Fiber provides fiber service in 4 northwestern U.S. states. Ziply Fiber - Wikipedia
Last Discussed: Item # 9 Sold 100 BCE at C$27.11 (10/10/2009 Post) I have no recollection of buying this stock.
Profit Snapshots (as converted into USDs): +$166.41
2009 BCE 100 Shares +$75.94 |
2007 BCE 50 Shares +$90.47 |
The net loss of $1.36 per share "attributable to approximately $2.1 billion in non-cash media asset impairment charges"
Free cash flow:
B. Bought 1 DOW at $47.3; 1 at $46.45:
Quote: Dow Inc. (DOW)
Cost: $93.75
DOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average Cost per share: $50.52 (12+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 ($2.8 annually)
Yield at New AC: 5.54%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/29/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item #2.G. Added to DOW - Bought 2 at $48.39; 1 at $47.82 (11/7/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
6. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
The 3 and 6 month treasury bills were auctioned last Tuesday since Monday was a holiday.
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 11/12/24 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 5/15/25
Interest: $108.95
Investment Rate: 4.467%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 11/11/24 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 2/13/25
Interest: $111.73
Investment Rate: 4.532%
7. Treasury Note Purchased in the Secondary Market:
A. Bought 2 Treasury Notes 4.25% Coupon Maturing on 10/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.9257:
YTM: 4.33%
I now own 4.
B. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.25% Coupon Maturing 1/13/26:
YTM: 4.379%
C. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/25:
YTM: 4.391%
8. Corporate Bonds Sold in the Secondary Market:
When doing my net cash flow calculations, I do not subtract the proceeds from selling a corporate bond in the secondary market which action has become rare over the past 3 years, but was common in prior years to harvest gains before bonds matured.
A. Sold 1 Prospect Capital 3.706% SU at $96.9:
Issuer: Prospect Capital Corp. (PSEC) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds at $96.8 or $968 plus accrued interest of $11.32.
Profit Snapshot: $59.15
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Prior to the release of Prospect's third quarter report, I viewed the credit risk as elevated, a concern that increased after reading that report.
The problem which has been growing is that PSEC has a lot of senior unsecured debt that has to be refinanced at much higher rates, which has been the case for more than a year now.
And, as that happens, net investment income will decline as floating rate loans, priced at spreads to short term rates, reprice at lower coupons due to the FED rate cuts.
In response, PSEC slashed its common stock dividend again, going from a monthly dividend of $.06 per share to $.045. SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 While this may be a positive for bond owners, it is also a matter of concern for them as it indicates a worsening financial picture. The common stock declined by 14.53% to close at $4.47 on 11/8/24.
The company reported a loss in the third quarter of $165.069M or $.38 per share. Brokerage firms were quick to downgrade the stock. I have a small ball position in PSEC which I intend to keep for a few more months at a minimum.
9. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 5 ATLCZ at $24.87:
Quote: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 (ATLCZ)
Cost: $124.35
Issuer: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. (ATLC)
ATLC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Atlanticus Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results
Corporate Profile | Atlanticus Holdings Corporation
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Last Discussed: Item # 7.A. Bought 5 ATLCZ at $25.23 (9/26/24 Post); Item # 5.A Started ATLCZ - Bought 5 at $25.3 (9/5/25 Post)
Senior Unsecured Note
Coupon: 9.25%
The notes were originally offered in January 2024.
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 1/31/29
Optional Call Information
The make whole payment that is required for redemptions prior to 1/31/25 is described at page S-14 of the prospectus.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades flat (like a common stock in that whoever owns the security on the ex date receives the entire distribution, even if the purchase was made the day prior to the ex date)
New Average cost per share: $25.13 (15 shares)
Yield at $25.13: 9.2%
(.0925% coupon x. $25 par value = $2.3125 per share annual interest ÷ $25.13 average total cost per share = 9.2%)
The yield highlights the risk.
Last Ex Interest Date: 10/1/24 (owned 10 as of)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.