Economy:
September CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M09 Results, discussed at CPI inflation September 2024
Annual CPI: 2.4%, down from 2.5%
Annual Core CPI: 3.3%, up from 3.2%
Month-to-Month CPI: .2%
Month-to-Month Core CPI: .3%
Owners Equivalent Rent (weighted at 26.937% in CPI): Annual at +5.4%, month-to-month at .3%. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2024 M09 Results
Social Security cost-of-living 2.5% adjustment for 2025 Down from 3.2% in 2024.
The September jobs report was better than expected with a 254,000 increase. Employment Situation Summary The jobs numbers for July and August were revised up by a combined 72,000. Average hourly earnings increased by 13 cents or .4% and was up 4% over the past 12 months ending in September. The U-6 rate declined from 7.9% to 7.7%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Job Numbers:
 |
| In Thousands |
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
J.D. Vance's attack on blockbuster jobs report quickly shut down by economist - Raw Story
Intermediate and longer term treasury yields rose in response to the jobs report.
The odds of a 50 basis point cut at the November Fed Meeting now has a zero percent probability and a 25 basis point cut is at less than 100%:
 |
| As of 7:51 C.S.T. on 10/10/24 |
With the last jobs and CPI reports, I would rate the odds at less than 50% for a 25 basis point cut and would reduce the probability to zero with another strong jobs report for October.
Trump would add twice as much to national debt as Harris, study finds - The Washington Post The study was published by Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans-Mon, 10/07/2024 - Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
A number of Trump proposals, if implemented, would result in inflation spiking higher as well.
How much would Trump's plans for deportations, tariffs, and the Fed damage the US economy? | PIIE
A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan – ITEP; Why Trump’s tariffs would hit poor and middle-class Americans hardest - MarketWatch Trump's tariff proposal is equivalent to a national sales tax.
‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini Warns of Trump Win Spurring Stagflation Shock, republished at MSN from Bloomberg.
Trump Tariffs Could Cost US $800 per Person Annually Says Top Economist - Newsweek
When making investment allocation decisions, I must respond to what I view as the more likely results from economic and monetary policy shifts. If Trump wins and is successful in implementing his policies, or moving close to implementing them, particularly his proposed increases in tariffs and massive deportations, I will shorten by bond duration. Those policies will IMO significantly reaccelerate inflation. I view his proposals as dramatically increasing the probability of stagflation.
U.S. deficit hits $1.8 trillion in the Fiscal Year Ending 9/30/24 - The Washington Post If that level of deficit spending was cut in half suddenly for an upcoming fiscal year, the economy, so dependent now on spending ever increasing amounts of borrowed money, could easily fall into a significant recession that would increase the budget deficit by lowering revenue and increasing the costs of safety net programs.
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $5,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $16,000 in principal amount
Treasury Note Purchases-Secondary market: $3,000 in principal amount
Tennessee Municipal Bonds: $5,000 in principal amount
Outflow Common Stocks: -$613.81
(consisting of $990.86 in proceeds minus $377.05 in purchases)
Outflow Stock Fund: -$88.15
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$701.96
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$38,880.78
Treasury Yield Curve - October 2024:
Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
The 10 year yield was at 3.63% on 9/16/24.
Fidelity Account - Asset Allocation as of 10/10/24:
The Fidelity bond category includes treasury bills.
The Fidelity MM sweep fund (SPAXX) has a 7 day yield of 4.57% as of 10/9/24. My percentage allocation in SPAXX is increasing some since I am slow in redeploying proceeds received from maturing T Bills and bonds.
In this account, I received $15,000 in redemption proceeds from a matured T Bill today:
Another $7K from a maturing T Bill was received in my Schwab account where most of my T Bills are owned now given the lower sweep account yield of .2%.
Update on Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO):
This bond CEF was scheduled to liquidate in December 2024. The fund is not going to liquidate. Shareholders voted in favor of a proposal whereby the fund would buy shares at net asset value on 10/1/24. About 49.7% of the shares were tendered for purchase. Since the fund still had more than $50M in assets, which was required to avoid liquidation in December, the fund will continue in existence. I own 110 shares and did not tender any of my shares for purchase.
+++
Trump and his Party:
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling
Trump knows that lying works and is a path to political power in the U.S. because tens of millions have failed in their most basic duties as citizens, as noted by Ken Burns recently.
Lying all the time about almost everything would not be a path to political power in the U.S., as it is now, if voters had performed their duty as citizens and had made the effort to become informed with accurate information.
As a result, it is impossible to have a fact based discussion about problems and solutions with republicans since they have their own reality creations as a starting point in discussions.
Daniel Moynihan once said that republicans were entitled to their opinion but not there own set of facts.
After many years of Trump, facts are nowhere to be found in TrumpWorld and that makes finding solutions almost impossible with the republicans having blocking power in Congress and potentially the White House.
Fact check: Trump makes at least 11 false claims in foreign policy interview
Trump's Lies About the Hurricane Response Are Getting More Outrageous, republished at MSN.Com from the Rolling Stone.
Trump’s Secret COVID Gift to Putin & Hurricane Helene Lies | The Daily Show - YouTube
Trump falsely claims he was endorsed by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon; Jamie Dimon denies Trump endorsement claim
How 60 Minutes found out Donald Trump would not participate in an election special - CBS News; '60 Minutes’ details Donald Trump canceling prime-time interview Trump was upset that 60 Minutes was going to fact check him, as it always does in these interviews. Since Trump is incapable of making accurate statements, an interview with real time fact checks would have a negative result for him. This program has interviewed the Presidential candidates of both parties starting with the 1968 election. Trump is the first candidate to pull out. Trump is becoming increasingly incoherent and confused and has been making bizarre claims that makes him look even more buffoonish and ridiculous to those who are not members of his cult.
Trump’s Rambling Speeches Reinforce Question of Age - The New York Times
Fact check: Six days of Trump lies about the Hurricane Helene response Trump is a shameless pathological liar which is one of character traits of a psychopath. 7 Characteristics of the Modern Psychopath | Psychology Today; World Mental Health Professionals against Trump - YouTube
My videos: Republicans Will Block All Efforts to Meaningfully Address Man Made Climate Change - YouTube and Hurricane Milton, FEMA and Republican Climate Change Deniers - YouTube
Elon Musk made the following statements at Trump's rally in Butler, PA.: "President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution. He must win to preserve democracy in America." Elon Musk Leaps to Trump’s Side in Rally Appearance - The New York Times Musk also claimed that the democrats wanted to take away the right to free speech, the right to vote "effectively" and everyones guns. Trumpsters of course cheered Musk's remarks.
My video: Elon Musk Another Delusional Trump Supporter IMO - YouTube
Officials face antisemitic attacks on X over Hurricane Helene response - The Washington Post "The attacks, which include wild claims that Jewish officials are conspiring to orchestrate the disasters, sabotage the recovery or even seize victims’ property, are being fomented largely on Elon Musk’s X."
The brief submitted last week by Jack Smith in the D.C. election interference case will not have any impact on Trump supporters like Musk and certainly would not change Musk's opinion that Trump was actually trying to preserve democracy and the Constitution through his actions and words leading up to January 6th and the assault on the nation's capital that day. Key takeaways from special counsel Jack Smith's major filing in Trump's 2020 election case - CBS News; 11 damning details in Jack Smith’s new brief in the Trump election case - POLITICO
Trump supporters will not review the real evidence relating to January 6th, including the detailed facts contained in the indictment, the 814 page Committee report on January 6th, Jack Smith's recently filed brief, or even the Wikipedia article discussing the matter. January 6 United States Capitol attack - Wikipedia They prefer to just make stuff up that exonerates Trump. The reality creations are generated for them by others who have a political and/or financial interest in deflecting blame from Trump.
No amount of evidence will convince Republicans of Trump’s 2020 guilt, published at MSN, republished from the No amount of evidence will convince Republicans of Trump’s 2020 guilt-The Washington Post In a poll, respondents were asked whether Trump called Georgia election officials in an effort to convince them to find Trump more votes. There is an audio tape of that recording. 70% of republicans denied that it even happened. That percentage is somewhat lower to the number of republicans who believe Trump is honest.
Donald Trump Blames Joe Biden for His 'Small' Crowd Size at Rally - Newsweek
False Claims Are Disrupting Recovery from Hurricane Helene - The New York Times
Donald Trump Attacked Over Confederacy Pledge: 'They Were Traitors' - Newsweek To the cheers of his supporters, Trump said that he would restore the name of a North Carolina military base, currently named Fort Liberty, back to Fort Bragg. A soldier introduced himself at a Trump rally as being stationed at Fort Liberty and was booed by the Trump supporters. Fort Bragg was named after Braxton Bragg, a Confederate General who is generally viewed by most military historians as incompetent. Prior to the Civil War, Bragg graduated from West Point and was a U.S. army officer.
Donald Trump Flirts With Race Science - The Atlantic Trump: There are "a lot of bad genes in our country right now".
He's TRULY AWFUL in EVERY Way, Don't Let Him Off the Hook (w/ Timothy Snyder) - YouTube
Bob Woodward calls Trump 'worse than Nixon' in damning October surprise report - YouTube
Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) claimed that the Democrats were engaged in election interference by allowing hurricane Helene to traverse over battleground states. Greene: “Yes they can control the weather. It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene relays dog whistle Jews control weather - The Jerusalem Post; Marjorie Taylor Greene Backlash Over Comments Amid Helene | TIME
A Pair of Billionaire Preachers Built the Most Powerful Political Machine in Texas. That’s Just the Start-ProPublica The two men are Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks. Three West Texas billionaires are pushing Texas to the far-right | TPR
Election-denying ex-county clerk sentenced to 9 years for tampering with election equipment
Nearly half of all GOP nominees for Senate, governor and elections chief are election deniers
This is a link to an article written by Rudy Giuliani's daughter. Rudy Giuliani’s Daughter: Trump Took My Dad From Me. Please Don’t Let Him Take Our Country Too | Vanity Fair
+++
Putin and His Nation:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Ukrainian Drones Hit Borisoglebsk Air Base: Targeting Ammunition Storage - YouTube; Ukraine Drones Strike Russian Airbase Hosting Russian Su-35 Jets - Newsweek;
Ukraine’s Donbas Strategy: Retreat Slowly and Maximize Russian Losses - The New York Times
Videos Show Crimean Oil Refinery on Fire After Drone Raid - Newsweek; Satellite Imagery of Feodosia Oil Facility After ATACMS: Fire Spreads to More Oil Tanks! - YouTube
After Trump left office, he continued to have conversations with Putin. Trump spoke with Putin multiple times since leaving office, Woodward book reports - POLITICO; Journalist Bob Woodward reveals Trump-Putin conversation - YouTube; Trump-Putin calls, reported in new Bob Woodward book - USA Today Were they working on their peace plan for Ukraine?
Russian weapons depot with North Korean ammunition and bombs in Bryansk Oblast reportedly struck - Euromaidan Press; Ukrainian Drones Hit Another Russian Ammo Depot! This One In Karachev, Bryansk - YouTube
++++
1. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds:
The bonds discussed in this section were bought in my Fidelity and Interactive Brokers accounts.
The apex of my corporate bond ladder is in June 2025. I have decided to add more corporate bonds maturing in the August 2025-January 2026 time period.
With short term bonds, I am not taking much interest rate risk given the duration and the FED being more likely to cut the federal funds rate than to raise it prior to the bonds maturing.
By apex, I am referring to when the dollar amount of bonds, CDs and treasury bills maturing each month starts to decline significantly.
I am losing higher yielding securities to early calls.
Both of these securities had limited call protection:
A. Bought 2 Sherwin Williams 3.45% SU Maturing on 8/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.284 (IB Account):
%208:1:25%203.45%25%20.png)
Issuer: Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW)
This is the next SU bond to mature.
SHW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SHW SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.326%
Current Yield at TC: 3.475%
I now own 4 bonds.
Last Bond Offering (8/24): Prospectus
B. Bought 2 Kilroy Realty 4.375% SU Maturing on 10/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.69:
%204.375%25%2010:1:25.png)
Issuer: Operating entity of Kilroy Realty Corp. (KRC) who guarantees the notes
KRC 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 Debt is listed at page 44.
SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 6/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.696%
Current Yield at TC: 4.389%
Last Bond Offering (1/24): Prospectus for $400M 6.25% SU maturing in 2036
I now own 4 bonds.
C. Bought 2 Sysco 3.75% SU Maturing on 10/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.45:
Issuer: Sysco Corp. (SYY) -Food Distributor
SYY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending 6/29/24 Debt is listed at page 83. This SU bond is the next one that matures.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 6/29/24 (Free cash for the fiscal year was reported at $2.2B)
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.319%
Current Yield at TC = 3.77%
D. Bought 2 Mid-America Apartments LP 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.7:
Issuer: Operating entity of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - Apartment REIT
I have a small ball position in the common stock.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.274%
Current Yield at TC = 4.012%
I had 2 bonds mature on 6/17/24.
E. Bought 2 DuPont 4.493% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 100:
Issuer: DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD)
DD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
DD SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM and Current Yield: 4.493%
F. Bought 2 Biogen 4.05% SU Maturing on 9/15/2025 at a Total Cost of 99.6:
%204.05%25%209:15:25.png)
Issuer: Biogen Inc. (BIBB)
BIIB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
BIIB SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 6/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.483%
Current Yield at TC = 4.066%
G. Bought 1 Black Hills 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.393 - Interactive Brokers Account:
%203.95%25%201:15:2026%20.png) |
Issuer: Black Hills Corp. (BKH) - Utility Holding Company
I have eliminated my common stock position.
BKH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.439%
Current Yield at TC = 3.974%
H. Bought 1 Black Hills 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/2026 at a Total Cost of 99.221- Fidelity Account:
See Item #1.G. Above.
I now own 8 bonds.
YTM at Total Cost: 4.583%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.981%
I bought this one last Friday after the jobs report was released, or day after the purchase discussed above. I would attribute the slight rise in the YTM for the last purchase to the jobs report released last Friday.
In this account, I had 1 Goldman Sachs 5.4% SU mature on 10/4/24 so I am earning less on reinvesting the proceeds.
%209:1:26.png)
%203.5%25%20.png)
2. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33:
Quote: Williams Cos. (WMB) - Energy Infrastructure
Proceeds: $483.25
Profit Snapshots: $251.11
New Average cost per share: $23.92 (85+ shares)
 |
| Price Intraday on 10/4/24 after pares |
The remaining shares were purchased near my current average cost per share. I consequently cannot reduce my AC per share much by selling the highest cost lots. Instead, I am just harvesting gains, viewing that as more important to me than continuing to receive the dividends on the shares being sold. The current annual dividend on 10 shares is $47.5.
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 10/8/24 after pare |
ALDA = Alternative Long Duration Assets.
Item # 4.A. Sold 50 MFCPRM at C$20.51 (1/21/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$113).
Item # 4.B. Sold 50 MFCPRN at C$20.91 (1/21/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$108)
Proceeds: $88.15
The fund owns stocks of companies based in Switzerland.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to SWZ - Bought 10 at $7.56 (5/3/24 Post)
Sponsor's website: Schroders | SWZ
Expense Ratio: High at 1.66% for the year ending 12/31/23
Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/24):
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24 Report
Profit Snapshot: +$11.15
New Average cost per share: $7.69 (100 shares)
Remaining Lot Details:
 |
| Share Price as of 10/4/24 close |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.129 per share ($.516 annually).
Yield at New AC = 6.71% (assumes current quarterly dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 9/19/24 (owned all as of)
Data Date of 10/3/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $10.09
Closing Market Price: $8.82
Discount: -12.64%
Average 3 year discount: -14.64%
Source: SWZ - CEF Connect
I also own the Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF (FLSW) that has a .09% expense ratio. I am more likely to add to that ETF than to buy more SWZ shares.
D. Eliminated SOBCF - Sold 7 at US$21.79:
Quote: South Bow Corp. (SOBCF) - U.S. Grey Market Listing
Proceeds: $152.53
South Bow is a Canadian company and the ordinary shares are priced in Canadian dollars and traded in Toronto. South Bow Corp. (SOBO:CA) It operates 3045 miles of crude oil pipeline infrastructure, connecting Alberta crude oil supplies to refineries located in Illinois, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast.
This company was recently spun out of TC Energy Corp (TRP), a large Canadian company that owns energy infrastructure assets.
I own 38 TRP shares and received 1 South Bow share for each 5 shares of TRP stock which resulted in receiving 7 shares and a US$13.09 cash liquidation of the fractional share:
Fidelity and other brokers received CAD priced shares in the spinoff, but then converted them into the USD priced shares traded in the Grey Market, classified properly as a dark market, that has the symbol SOBCF. Many brokers will not allow their U.S. customer to buy or sell Grey Market listed securities. Fidelity still allowed me to sell the shares without charging a commission, and there is no way to know how long that will last.
If I decide to repurchase shares, I will buy the Canadian priced shares traded on the Toronto exchange. The U.S. Grey Market is best avoided IMO. I blame TRP for not having a dual listing for the shares.
Profit Snapshot: +US$11.79
South Bow will be paying a dividend but the amount has not yet been declared by it. I will need to know the amount, and whether the purchase would quality in my bond substitute category, before considering a purchase on the Toronto exchange.
E. Pared Duplicate Position in COLB - Sold 5 $25.92; 3 at $25.65 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc. (COLB)
Proceeds: $206.6
COLB is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington and is the parent company of Umpqua Bank" which is "the largest bank headquartered in the Northwest and one of the largest banks headquartered in the West with locations in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington" with over $50B in assets.
COLB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/9/24, the average E.P.S. for 2024 was at $2.34, compared to $2.95 in 2023, and rising to $2.8 in 2026.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81 (6/3/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81 (6/3/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 1 COLB at $20.31 (5/27/23 Post)
Loss Snapshot: -$24.09
New Average cost per share this account: $20.78 (20+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 10/9/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.30 effective for the 2023 second quarter payment.
COLB Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at New AC per share: 6.93%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/23/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24) SEC Filed Press Release
I view this report and most recent regional bank reports unfavorably.
Comparisons are to the 2023 second quarter:
E.P.S. $.57, down from $.64.
"Operating" E.P.S. $.67, down from $.81 (see page 21)
NIM: 3.54%, down from 3.99%
Adjusted NIM: 2.98%, down from 3.49%
Adjustments to NIM:
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio: 53.56%, down from 54.04%
Charge off ratio: .32%, up from .3%
NPL Ratio: .41%, up from .22%
NPA Ratio: .3%, up from .15%
Tangible Book Value per share: $16.26
Owned Securities:
 |
| In Thousands/Unrealized of $600.637M |
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.D. Eliminated COLB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 15 at $31.86 (2/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.56)
3. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added 3 UDR at $44.54; 2 at $44.14:
Cost: $221.69
New Average cost per share: $45.18 (12 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.425 per share ($1.7 annually)
Yield at New AC:
Last Ex Dividend: Today, 10/10/24 (owned all as of).
I discussed this REIT in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 3.A. Started UDR - Bought 5 at $45.95; 1 at $45.37; 1 at $45.14 (10/3/24 Post)
B. Added to TPVG - Bought 5 at $6.8:
Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)
Cost $34
Management: External
Given the pathetic performance of this BDC over the past year, I had previously reclassified it to my "deservedly hated" category. That does not prevent me from buying a few shares but will limit my dollar exposure.
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (The risk factor summary starts at page 24 and ends at page 54)
Net Asset value per share as of 6/30/24: $8.83, down 36.97% from the $14.01 reported as of 12/31/21
New Average Cost per share: $7.25
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 10/4 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30, cut from $.40 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
TPVG Dividend History | Nasdaq
The dividend slash was necessary due to lower net investment income due to the increase in nonaccrual loans and loans sold at steep losses after going on nonaccrual status. Net investment income per share was reported at $.33 in the 2024 second quarter, down from $.53 in the 2023 second quarter.
Estimated spillover income: $39.3M or $.98 per share as of 6/20/24
Yield at AC Using $1.2 Annual per share: 16.55%
The dividend yield indicates that investors who count do not have any faith in TPVG's management and are forecasting more asset incineration.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24 (owned 10 shares as of) The 4th quarter ex dividend date has historically been in mid-December.
I recently discussed this BDC and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.D. Restarted the Deservedly Hated BDC TPVG - Bought 10 at $7.52; 5 at $7.14 (9/19/24 Post) I discussed the horrific last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
TPVG Realized Gains to Date: $1,294.13 (links to sell discussions are in the previously linked post)
Largest Gain from a single transaction: $246.43 Item # 2.A. Sold 74+ TPVG at $14.87 (7/20/19 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 2.A. Eliminated TPVG in all Taxable Accounts - Sold 38+ at $10.76; 11 at $10.8; 29 at $10.88 (8/26/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $177.68). I sold after my negative opinion went into overdrive about the external managers judgment on credit risks.
An example noted in that post was "a $34.39M loan to Medly Health that had filed for bankruptcy. The loan was valued at $31.829M as of 9/30/22, 10-Q at page 9, and a bankruptcy petition was filed later that year. SEC Filing"
I also discussed several other nonaccrual loans in that 8/26/23 post.
While BDC problem loans are to be expected, there comes a point when their acceleration, the percentage of non-accruals to total loans based on cost, and the disposition of non-accrual loans at significant losses calls into question the managers competence. TPVG reached that point in mid-2023 IMO. Since that August 2023 post, problem loans have continued to increase as I discussed in my 9/19/24 post.
The dividend yield is mildly attractive, but the risk is substantial that there will be more dividend cuts.
C. Started MGA - Bought 1 at $40.8; 2 at $40.28:
Quote: Magna International Inc. (MGA) - USD Priced Shares
Cost: $121.36
Website: Magna International
Magna is based in Canada and is a major automotive parts manufacturer with 345 manufacturing operations. The major customers will be the auto manufacturers.
I have not previously owned MGA.
I owned a MGA SU bond that matured on 6/15/24. I am now looking for 2 to replace those.
MGA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
MGA SEC Filings - Form Issuer Forms
Average cost per share: $40.45 (3 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 ($1.9 annually), last raised from $.46 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment:
I am assuming for now that Canada will apply its 15% tax to the dividend payments.
Yield at $40.45: 4.7%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/16/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
All amounts are in U.S. Dollars.
Revenue: $10.958B
Net Income: $313M
E.P.S. $1.09
Adjusted E.P.S. $1.35 with the consensus at $1.44
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
2024 Outlook:
Magna's "operating results are primarily dependent on the levels of North American, European, and Chinese car and light truck production by our customers. While we supply systems and components to every major original equipment manufacturer ("OEM"), we do not supply systems and components for every vehicle, nor is the value of our content consistent from one vehicle to the next. As a result, customer and program mix relative to market trends, as well as the value of our content on specific vehicle production programs, are also important drivers of our results."
Analyst Reports (Available to Schwab Customers):
Morningstar (8/5/24): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of US$64 reduced from $71, no economic moat and high uncertainty. The analyst noted that the stock fell 6% on August 2 in response to the earnings report and 2026 guidance.
S&P (8/2/24): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of US$42. The analyst noted that the recent underperformance was "largely a result of the UAW strike and its larger-than-average exposure to the Detroit Three (39% of total net sales in 2023)"t
4. Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Maury County 3.25% GO Bonds Maturing on 4/1/42 at a Total Cost of 91.804:
.png)
Emma Page
Credit Rating: Aa2
Interest: Federally Tax Free, paid semiannually
Optional Call: On or after 4/1/26
YTM: 3.901%
Current Yield: 3.54%
I now own 10 bonds.
5. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
All of the purchases were made in my Schwab account where the sweep account pays .2%.
A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 10/7/24 Auction:
%204:10:25.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bills
Mature on 4/10/25
Interest: $43.53
Investment Rate: 4.462%
B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 10/7/24 Auction:
%201:9:25.png){kind=small}
91 Day Bill
Matures on 1/9/25
Interest: $34.5
Investment Rate: 4.667%
6. Treasury Note - Secondary Market Purchase:
All 3 notes were purchased in my Schwab account where the sweep account pays .2%.
A. Bought 1 Treasury Note 3.5% Coupon Maturing on 9/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.312:
%209:15:25%203.5%25%20.png){kind=small}
YTM at TC: 4.238%
B. Bought 1 Treasury Note 3.875% Coupon Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.6743:
%201:15:26%203.875%25.png)
YTM at TC = 4.137%
C. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 2/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.824:
%202:15:26.png){kind=small}
YTM at 4.121%
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
