Economy:
Employment Situation Summary December 2024
Jobs: +256,000 with the consensus at 155,000
October and November Job Numbers revised down by a combined 8,000
Annual Wage Growth: 3.9%
Unemployment: 4.1%
Labor Participation Rate: 62.5%, unchanged
Work Week: 34.3, unchanged for 5 months
U-6 Number: 7.5%, down from 7.7% in November, Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2024 M13 Results
Discussed at Jobs report December 2024
The CPI report earlier today caused jubilation among bond and stock investors. I looked at it as simply as more evidence that further declines in inflation, without any policy changes that would cause inflation to rise, is proving difficult to achieve
Annual CPI +2.9%, up from 2.7% (Third consecutive month of increases)
Annual Core CPI: +3.2%, down from 3.3%
Month-to-Month CPI: .4%, up from .3% (A .4% month-to-month converts to +4.8% annualized)
Month-to-Month Core CPI: .2%, down from .3%
Discussed at CPI inflation December 2024:
Fed Governor Bowman says December interest rate cut should be the last
Kyle Bass: Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse - YouTube
Trump's mass deportation plan could have a big effect on inflation If Trump does implement mass deportations, there will be supply chain disruptions, particularly in the food and construction sectors that are heavily dependent on undocumented immigrant workers. That will lead to higher prices in sectors that significantly rely on undocumented immigrant labor.
Even with mass deportations starting soon after Trump becomes President, it will take awhile for the deportations to reach a level where there is a significant impact on supply.
Apparently, those who will soon be in charge have learned nothing about how disruptions in the supply chains, caused by the pandemic, significantly contributed to inflation in 2021-2022.
There's a 'meaningful shift' in CEO confidence since Trump's election, says Goldman's Solomon
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $5,000 in principal amount
I slowed down this past week my treasury bill purchases in my Schwab account, leaving me with more capital to slightly increase my stock allocation and to purchase treasury notes in the secondary market.
Corporate Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount
Treasury Notes Purchased Secondary Market: $6,000 in principal amount
Inflow U.S. Common Stocks: +$905.04
(consisting of $1,555.64 in purchases minus $650.6 in proceeds with a realized gain of +$255.42)
Inflow Canadian REIT: +C$329.5 (converted to US$231 for allocation purposes)
Outflow U.S. Stock Funds (CEFs): -$629.08 (realized gain at +$154.44)
Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$430.4
Outflow Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: -C$4,649 (realized gains at +C$866.5)
Outflow U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks: -$898.62 (realized gain +$85.2)
2025 Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$1,791.04
U.S. stocks are falling. Here's why Goldman says to stay invested in 2025. | Morningstar
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If the NY Court of Appeals reverses Trump's criminal conviction in the falsification of business records case, which relates to the hush money payment to a porn star, one reason may be what many non-partisan lawyers view as an error in the jury instructions, as more fully explained in this article published at the Just Security website. The Right to a Unanimous Verdict and the Jury Instructions in People v. Trump This legal analysis has nothing to do with the identity of the defendant which is the way it should be.
To convict Trump of the felonies relating to the falsification of business records, as opposed to a misdemeanor, the Jury had to reach a unanimous verdict that the falsification had the purpose of concealing or committing another crime.
The jury was given three alternate crimes.
The instruction was phrased this way: "Although you must conclude unanimously that the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were."
This instruction allowed the jury to convict without reaching a unanimous verdict on which of the three alternative crimes were committed. The jury could split 4-4-4 on which of the three predicate crimes were committed. The legal issue is simply whether that instruction violated Trump's constitutional right to a unanimous jury verdict in a criminal trial.
HUGE Mistake Tech Bros! Cozying Up to Trump Will End BADLY (w/ Anne Applebaum - YouTube
Kristin Kobes Du Mez: White Christian nationalists are poised to remake America in their image during Trump’s second term; The Army of God Comes Out of the Shadows - The Atlantic ("tens of millions of believers—about 40 percent of American Christians, including Catholics, according to a recent Denison University survey—are embracing an alluring, charismatic movement that has little use for religious pluralism, individual rights, or constitutional democracy.")
It is important to keep track about the comments made by the tech bros given their massive influence in the U.S. Peter Thiel Has Lost His Mind Again, And Other Dumb Billionaire Adventures; Trump Ally Peter Thiel’s Op-Ed Turns Heads for Being ‘Beyond Nuts’
JUST PLAIN CRUEL! Mike Johnson Threatens to Hold Wildfire Aid to CA Hostage!-YouTube
Special counsel says evidence against Trump was enough to convict him : NPR Final Report on the Special Counsel's Investigations and Prosecutions Volume One The documents case in Florida against Trump was a much stronger criminal case IMO and the best of all the criminal cases, state or federal, for a felony conviction.
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1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Sold 100 of 400 PPP.PRC:CA at C$22.1 - IB Account (C$1 Commision):
Issuer: Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA )
Proceeds: C$2,209 (after C$1 IB commission)
PBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I own the USD priced common stock that trades on the NYSE.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Last PBA Discussion: Item # 2.D. Eliminated Duplicate PBA Position - Sold 14 at US$$31.34 (9/9/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $246.88, noted with links to sell discussions a PBA total realized gain of US$2,193.4)
Profit Snapshot (100 PPP.PRC:CA): +C$436
The C$436 profit is not how this gain will be reported to the IRS. The USD values of both the purchase amount and proceeds will determine my reportable tax profit.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added 100 PPLPRC at C$16.8 (6/24/23 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 100 PPLPRC at C$15.88 (3/7/20 Post); Item # 1. Bought 50 PPLPRC at C$15.8 (7/3/19 Post); Item # 1.B. Bought 50 PPLPRC at C$17.23 (5/25/19 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 100 PPL.PR.C. at C$17.7 (3/23/19 Post)
Lots Prior to Pare: Using FIFO I sold the highest cost lot bought first.
New Average cost per share: C$16.43 (300 shares)
 |
| Price as of 1/9/25 Close/Unrealized Gain at C$1,730 |
The AC was reduced from C$16.75.
Prospectuses for Pembina preferred stocks are linked here: Stocks & Dividends
Current Coupon: 6.019%
Coupon Reset: The coupon reset effective 3/1/24 at a 2.6% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield of 3.419%.
Coupon remains in effect to, but excluding 3/1/2029.
The security can be called only on reset dates.
Par Value: C$25
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Yield at AC to 3/1/29: 9.16%
Calculation: .06019% coupon x C$25 par value = C$1.50475 annual dividend per share ÷ C16.43 Total Average cost per share = 9.1586%
Next Ex Dividend: 2/3/25
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.B. Sold 100 PPLPRC:CA at C$21.64 (6/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$496)
B. Eliminated CPXPRE:CA at C$24.41 (C$1 IB Commission):
All of my trades on foreign exchanges are now made in my Interactive Brokers account. There are two reasons. Converting currencies and the commissions are cheaper than at my other brokers.
Issuer: Capital Power Corp.
Profit Snapshot: +C$430.5
Information about this equity preferred stock can be found at the issuer's website: Series 5, CPX.PR.E - Capital Power
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added to CPXPRE:CA - Bought 50 at C$20.46 (6/28/24 Post); Item #5.B. Restarted CPXPRE:CA - Bought 50 at C$19.6 (9/23/24 Post)
The last 5 year reset occurred in 2023. The quarterly dividend was increased to C$.4144375 from $.327375 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment.
Reset Coupon: 6.631% paid on a C$25 par value
Coupon: 3.15% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond yield.
Last 5 Year Reset: June 2023
Issuer has the right to call at par value on the reset dates.
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Last Ex Dividend: 12/16/24
Previous Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Eliminated CPXPRE - Sold Remaining 100 Shares at C$24.18 (7/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$843); Item # 1.A. Sold 50 of 150 CPXPRE:CA at C$22.01(5/28/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$217)
CPXPRE Realized Gains to Date: +C$1,490.5
Gains from Other Previously Owned Capital Power Reset Preferred Stocks: C$895
Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)-Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPPRA a C$10.2 - Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha That one reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five-year Canadian bond. The reset coupon was only 2.621%. I have no current interest in that preferred stock.
2. Small Ball Buys:
I will be discussing below primarily small ball stock purchases where I recently discussed the last earnings report and will simply refer to that earlier post rather than discussing the report again.
A. Added to LXP - Bought 10 at $7.75:
Quote: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) - Internally Managed REIT
Cost: $77.5
52 week high: $10.57 (20% decline mark at $8.46)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Properties | LXP Industrial Trust
New average cost per share: $8.29 (90 shares)
The AC per share was reduced from $8.35.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually)
LXP Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC: 6.51%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned 80 shares as of)
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 1.L. Added to LXP - Bought 10 at $8.29 (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
B. Added to AHH - Bought 5 at $9.67; 20 at $9.48; 10 at $9.35:
Quote: Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. (AHH) - Internally Managed REIT
Cost: $331.45
52 week high: $12.52
SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 9/30/24
New average cost per share: $10.14 (96+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot after last add- Closing Price on 1/14/25 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.205 per share ($.82 annually)
AHH Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at $10.14: 8.0868%
I discussed the last earnings report in this recent post: Item # 1.G. Added to AHH - Bought 2 at $10.94; 5 at $10.55; 10 at $10.15 (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
C. Added to PLYM - Bought 5 at $16.5:
Quote: Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. (PLYM) - Internally Managed REIT
Cost: $82.5
52 Week High: $24.71
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. Form 10-Q for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2024
Plymouth Industrial REIT - Boston
New average cost per share: $17.23 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually), last raised from $.225 per share effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
PLYM Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC: 5.57%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned 10 as of)
Last Elimination Item # 2.C. Eliminated PLYM - Sold 20 at $22.68 (9/9/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $212.59)
I discussed the last earnings report in a recent post: Item # 2.B. Restarted PLYM-Bought 10 at $17.6 (1/1/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental Information
D. Added to CPB - Bought 2 at $38.5; 3 at $37.9:
Quote: Campbell's Co. (CPB)
Cost: $190.7
52 week high: $52.81 (20% decline mark at $42.25)
CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CPB SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending on 7/28/24
New Average cost per share: $40.27 (13 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 per share ($1.56 annually)
Yield at $40.27: 3.87%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/2/25 (owned 8 as of)
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item #1.B Restarted CPB - Bought 2 at $42.71 (12/12/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release I discussed in that post CPB's recent acquisition of Savos Brands. Campbell Completes Acquisition of Sovos Brands, Inc.
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Eliminated CPB - Sold 5 at $49.86 (5/19/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.29) Item 3.B. Sold 5 CPB at $41.07 (8/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot $38.97); Item # 3 Sold 50 CPB at $41 (8/5/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.18); Item # 3 Sold 50+ CPB at $49.73+(11/20/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.21); Item # 3 Sold 70 CPB at $35.79 (9/8/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $714.84)
CPB Realized Gains to Date: $914.13
Enthusiasm Level: Vaguely observable but intermittently present.
I have profitably traded CPB so far but most of the profit was realized in a 2010 sell with the purchases during the 2009 market crash period.
I do not view CPB as a long term hold, as proven so far by a long term chart and meagre dividend growth over the past ten years. Note that I sold 50+ shares in 2017 at $49.73.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: 2 to 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. The consider to buy 5 shares price is <$35.
Consider to Sell: >$45
Owned SU Bond: 2 of the 3.95% SU maturing on 3/15/25
E. Added to KHC - Bought 2 at $29.2; 3 at $28.69:
Quote: Kraft Heinz Co.
Cost: $144.47
This stock is in a bear market defined generally as a price 20% or more below the recent high.
52 week high at $38.96 (20% decline mark at $31.17)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to KHC - Bought 5 at $30.25; 2 at $29.85;3 at $29.55 (1/9/25 Post)
KHC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New average cost per share: $31.68 (60+ Shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share
Yield at $31.68: 5.05%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/24
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 2.C. Added to KHC - Bought 10 at $31 (11/27/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction (just one of many risk mitigation strategies): 2 to 5 shares with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Consider to Sell: >$35
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.I. Eliminated Duplicate Position in KHC - Sold 6 at $35.48 - Fidelity Account (8/8/24 Post); Item # 2.E. Pared KHC - Sold 6 at $38.34 - Schwab Account (1/12/24 Post)
F. Added to UDR - Bought 1 $41.14; 1 at $40.73:
Quote: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT, a component of the S&P 500.
Cost: $81.87
52 week high: $47.55
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $43.77 (22 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.425 per share ($1.7 annually), last raised from $.42 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment. For the 2014 4th quarter, UDR paid a quarterly dividend of $.26.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/10/25 (owned all as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Added to UDR - Bought 5 at $41.75 (11/7/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
I own several UDR SU bonds maturing in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
I refer to this as stacking:
Finra Links
4 of the 2026 UDR 2.9% SU
5 of the 2027 UDR 3.5% SU
2 of the 2028 UDR 3.5% SU
G. Added to DOW - Bought 3 at $38.78:
Quote: Dow Inc. (DOW)
Cost: $116.83
I am currently in a 3 share average down mode.
Chemical stocks are in a bear market of unknowable duration.
52 week high: $60.69 (20% decline mark at $48.07)
DOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $44.36 (32+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/8/24 after add |
The AC per share was reduced from $44.92.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 per share
I am reinvesting the dividend for as long as the likely reinvestment price is below $45.
Yield at $44.36: 5.41%
Yield at $38.78: 6.19%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/24
I discussed the last earnings report in this post. Item #2.G. Added to DOW - Bought 2 at $48.39; 1 at $47.82 (11/7/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated DOW in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 5 at $59.71; 8 at $60.02 (2/13/23 Post)
H. Added to CAG - Bought 1 at $26.66; 2 at $26.33; 5 at $25.63:
Quote: Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG)
Cost: $207.47
52 week high: $33.24 (20% decline mark at $26.59)
CAG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Annual Report for the Fiscal Year ending 5/25/24
New Average cost per share: $27.75 (65+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/15/25 after last add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)
I am reinvesting the dividend for as long as the likely reinvestment price is below $32.
Yield at $27.75: 5.045%
The dividends are qualified and the dividend yield at my $27.75 AC per share is higher than the YTM's of short term investment grade corporate bonds who interest payments are taxed at ordinary income tax marginal rates with no cap.
Next Ex Dividend: 1/27/25
I discussed the last earnings report in this recent post: Item # 1.K. Added to CAG - Bought 1 at $27.02 (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q.
Analyst Reports Available to Schwab Customers:
Morningstar (1/14/25): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of $30 and no moat.
S&P (12/20/24): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $29
I. Added to SPTN - Bought 5 at $17.4:
Quote: SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)
Cost: $87
52 week high: $23 (20% decline mark at $18.4)
SPTN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to SPTN - Bought 4 at $18.23; 5 at $17.9 (1/9/2025 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q
New average cost per share: $18.26 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2175 per share ($.87 annually)
SPTN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at New AC = 4.7645%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/9/24
I. Added 100 BTB.UN:CA at C$3.285 (C$1 IB Commission):
Quote: BTB Real Estate Investment Trust (BTB-UN.TO) - Internally Managed Canadian REIT
Website: BTB REIT
Average cost per share: C$3.44 (300 units)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.025 per unit (C$.30 annually)
Canada will withhold 15%.
I am able to recover most of the foreign dividend taxes through the foreign tax credit. Foreign Tax: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab
Yield at C$3.44: 8.721%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/31/25
I discussed the last earnings report in a recent post: Item # 1.B. Added 100 BTB.UN:CA at C$3.44 (12/19/24 Post); Q3-2024_Interim-Financial-Statements and Report.pdf
J. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $36.07:
Cost: $180.35
Website: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Portfolio Summary as of 9/30/24:
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Pared NSA in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $48.54 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.95); Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in NSA - Sold 7 at $41.91 (Schwab Account) and Pared NSA in Fidelity Account Sold 5 at $53 (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $67.91)(mentioning in that report that I was not impressed with the 2024 second quarter earnings report, SEC Filing)
I would attribute most of the price decline to a rise in intermediate term interest rates starting last September and the generally unfavorable reaction to the last earnings report. Several analyst downgraded their ratings and/or price targets in response. I do not have access to those reports.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.C. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $34.95 (5/3/2024 Post); Item # 2.B. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $35.25 (4/26/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $35.98 (30 shares)
The AC barely budged as a result of this last purchase.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 per share ($2.28 annually), last raised from $.56 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment. The rate was at $.20 per share in the 2015 4th quarter payment.
Yield at $35.98: 6.34%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/13/24 (owned 25 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Report (debt listed at page 13 - Weighted average at 4.34%)
This report contributed to the price decline in the 2024 third quarter.
Net Income to Core FFO Reconciliation:
Core FFO per share: $.62, down from $.67
Revenues: $174.808M
Occupancy: 86.3%, down from 89.2%
 |
| Revenues and Occupancy Numbers |
K. Added to ON - Bought 1 at $55.5:
Quote: ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON)
This is completes my first 5 share "buy program". I am allowed to restart another 5 share buy program, using 1 share lots, when and if the price falls below $50.
52 week high: $85.16 (20% decline mark at $68.13)
Website: Intelligent Power and Sensing Technologies | onsemi
10-Q for the F/Q Ending 9/27/24
New Average cost per share: $59.44 (5 shares)
I discussed the last earnings report in my last post: Item # 1.I. Started ON as a Lotto - Bought 1 at $63.32; 1 at $60.45; 1 at $59.62; 1 at $58.31 (1/9/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release I started to buy almost $5 below the 20% decline mark from the 52 week high.
Maximum Exposure: $1,000
3. Corporate Bonds:
By buying corporate bonds maturing in 2026 at a discount, and holding to maturity, I am shifting the tax recognition of the "profit" to 2026.
Under the current IRS Code, the profit will most likely be classified as interest income.
I am currently light in 2026 maturies. By light, I am referring to less than $100,000 in proceeds each month (e.g. $42,000 in January 2026; $40,000 in April; $29,000 in June)
In February 2025, I will be receiving $134,000 in proceeds from maturing securities.
A. Bought 2 Eversource 3.35% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.3:
%203.35%25%203:15:26%20.png)
I had 6 Eversource SU bonds mature on 1/15/25 (2 in my Fidelity account and 4 in my Vanguard account).
ES Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my position in the common stock.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 The operating subsidiaries include Connecticut Light & Power, NStar Electric and Public Service Company of New Hampshire. The largest contributor to net income will be NStar.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.818%
Current Yield at TC: 3.408%
"Profit" Tax in 2026 when held to maturity: $34
B. Bought 2 Cabot 3.4% SU Maturing on 9/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.574 - IB Account:
%209:15:26%20.png){kind=small}
Issuer: Cabot Corp. (CBT)
CBT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
10-SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending 9/30/24 Long term debt is listed at page 57. This SU note is the next one to mature.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.902%
Current Yield at TC = 3.485%
"Profit" tax in 2026 when held to maturity: $48.52
C. Bought 2 Flextronics 3.75% SU Maturing on 2/1/26 at a Total Cost of 98.861:
%203.75%25%202:1:26%20.png)
Issuer: Flex Ltd. (FLEX)
The issuer has changed its name to Flex.
FLEX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FLEX SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q Ending 9/27/24
10-Q Debt is listed at page 17
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.853%
Current Yield at TC: 3.793%
I own 2 Flex 4.75% SU bonds that mature on 6/15/25. I am replacing them in advance with this last purchase.
D. Bought 2 Exelon 3.4% SU Maturing on 4/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.43:
%203.4%25%204:15:26.png)
Issuer: Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Utility Holding Company
EXC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my common stock position.
Exelon owns several operating utilities including Commonwealth Edison, Potomac Electric, Baltimore Gas & Electric, PECO and Delmarva Power & Light 10-Q
EXC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 (Net income of $707M of which $360M originated from Commonwealth Edison)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.682%
Current Yield at TC = 3.454%
E. Bought 2 Hewlett Packard Enterprise 4.45% SU Maturing on 9/25/26 at a Total Cost of 99.514:
%209:25:26.png)
Issuer: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE)
I have never owned the common stock but am considering a small ball purchase.
HPE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
HPE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 10/31/24
HPE to acquire Juniper Networks to accelerate AI-driven innovation (1/9/24) This acquisition has run into delays. It is an all cash offer at $40 per share representing an equity value of approximately $14B. Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) The current price indicates a belief that the deal will consummate.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.745%
Current Yield at TC = 4.47%
Last Bond Offering: $9B
I bought the first one to mature.
4. Small Ball Sells:
A. Eliminated GAM - Sold 10 at $50.91:
Quote: General American Investors Co. Inc. Overview - Primarily A Stock ETF
Proceeds: $509.08
Sponsor's website: General American Investors Company
GAM is one of the few CEFs formed prior to 1929 stock market crash that survived.
The primary focus of the fund is long term capital appreciation.
The fund may own short term treasuries and have some cash in a money market fund, which it did as of 9/30/24:
There can be some buildup in cash reserves in anticipation of the annual dividend payment.
Leveraged: Yes with $190+M in a preferred stock. General American Investors Co. Inc. 5.95% Cumulative Preferred Series B Stock (GAM.PRB) Given the size of the fund, and the fixed coupon of this preferred stock, I do not view the leverage as a matter of concern.
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 9/30/24 As of 9/30/24, the total cost of owned common stocks was $508.9+M with a value then of $1.517+B.
Major Portfolio Changes for the Q/E 6/30/24:
I first entered an order to sell 10 at $50.8 which was not filled. I cancelled the order and entered a limit order at the ask price of $50.56 and it was filled at $50.91.
 |
| Canceled Order to sell at $50.8 |
Profit Snapshot: $138.08
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.M. Restarted GAM - Bought 5 at $37.25; 5 at $36.95 (1/16/2021 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in GAM - Sold 10 at $39.7 (5/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.01)
Dividends: Paid annually at a variable rate.
GAM Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The 10 shares generated $112 in dividends or 30.19% on the total cost, mostly long term capital gains distributions starting with the annual dividend paid in December 2021. I bought the two 5 shares after the 2020 annual dividend payment. The last dividend was paid in December 2024 at $4.5 per share:
The total return was at 67.41%.
Data Date of 1/13/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $58.04
Closing Market Price: $51.13
Discount: -11.91%
Average 3 year discount: -16.68%
Sourced: GAM - CEF Connect
GAM Page at Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
Other Sell Discussions:
Item # 2.B.Eliminated GAM-Sold 109+ at $32.74 (2/15/17 Post)(profit snapshot = +$88.53. I reinvested the year end distribution of $320.29 to buy 9.8167 shares which were sold at a $13.41. profit);
Sold 107+ GAM at $34.44 (10/19/13 Post)(profit snapshot=$518.31/Total Return=$717.12))
GAM Realized Gains to Date: $785.93
B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in WHR - Sold 3 at $120.1 (Schwab Account):
Proceeds: $360.29
Whirlpool is a large appliance company whose brands include Whirlpool, Maytag, Amana, JennAir, and KitchenAid. Home, Kitchen & Laundry Appliances & Products | Whirlpool
WHR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Sold 1 WHR at $126.01 - Fidelity (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.28) I still own 8 shares in my Fidelity account with an average cost per share of $88.68. The dividend yield at that AC is 7.89%. I view the stock as a bond substitute which simply means that I am satisfied selling the stock at a small net gain, usually at least 2% annually based on total cost, after harvesting the dividends.
Profit Snapshot: +$85.12
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. $2.
Ongoing operations E.P.S. = $3.43
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
Whirlpool divested its most of its European, Middle Eastern and Africa operations (EMEA) by transferring them to a newly formed entity that will include the European operations of the Turkish household appliance maker Arcelik. Whirlpool will own 25% of this new entity. Whirlpool to divest most of EMEA ops, form new entity with Turkey's Arcelik | Reuters
Net Sales: $3.993B, adjusted up by currency impacts to arrive at organic net sales.
Organic Net Sales: $4.069B
Reaffirmed 2024 Ongoing operations E.P.S. of $12 (non-GAAP) and free cash flow at approximately $500M.
Last Bond Offering (2/24): Prospectus for 5.75% SU maturing in 2034.
Owned SU Bond: I own 2 WHR 3.75 SU notes maturing on 5/1/25.
C. Pared GDV - Sold 5 at $24:
Proceeds: $120
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 9/30/24
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24 (leverage is discussed at pages 28-29)
Sponsor's website: GDV
Leveraged: Yes through fixed and variable rate preferred stocks. The publicly traded outstanding preferred stock is GDV.PRH: Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust 5.375% Cum. Pfd. Series H Stock
GDV Page at Morningstar (rated at 1 star)
Notwithstanding the rating, I will own some shares as part of my monthly income generation objective. Through 11/13/25, the annual average total return was 8.18% over ten years, based on price and 7.82% based on NAV. The numbers are not bad in an absolute sense but are poor compared to the category used by Morningstar for comparison purposes, which had a 11.97% return based on NAV over that period.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Added to GDV - Bought 2 at $20.43; 5 at $19.97 (5/27/2023 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $16.36
New Average cost per share: $19.16 (30 shares)
The AC per share was reduced from $19.39
I sold my highest cost lot which is part of my overall risk mitigation strategy.
Dividend: Monthly at $.14 per share ($1.68 annually), last raised from $.11 effective for the January 2025 payment. Over the past 12 months, there has been no ROC sourcing for the dividend. The dividend is partially supported by capital gains.
Yield at $19.16 AC per share: 8.77%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/16/25
Next Ex Dividend: 2/13/25
Data Date of 1/13/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $27.49
Closing Market Price: $24.14
Discount: -12.19%
Average 3 Year Discount: -14.35%
Sourced: GDV - CEF Connect
Last GDV Elimination: Item # 1. Sold 200 GDV at $21.03 (11/12/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,393.8)
D. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $58.08:
Proceeds: $290.4
Profit Snapshot: $170.3
New Average cost per share: $23.87 (55+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 1/14/25 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 per share ($1.9 annually)
Williams Companies, Inc - Dividend History
Yield at AC of $23.87: 7.96%
The AC was reduced only from $23.88. All of the remaining shares were purchased at close to the current AC price.
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 4.A. Pared WMB Again- Sold 5 at $55.58 (11/14/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $158.29); SEC Filed Press Release
Other sell discussions: Item # 6.C. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $56.69 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $163.25); Item # 4.D. Sold 5 WMB at $52.28 (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.2); Item # 3.C. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $50.3; 5 at $51.31 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $267.84); Item # 2.A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $251.11); Item # 1.B. Sold 5 WMB at $45.29 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.34); Item # 3.C. Pared WMB - Sold 4 at $40.27 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.02); Item # 1.A. Pared WMB - Sold 10 at $36.12 (1/12/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.61); Item # 6.A. Eliminated WMB Duplicate Positions - Sold 10+ at $35.23; 5 at $35.33 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $190.8)
WMB Realized Gains to Date: $1,643.04 (excludes gains in my Roth IRA accounts)
WMB SU Bonds: I had 6 WMB 3.9% SU bonds mature on 1/15/25: 2 in my Fidelity account and 4 in my Vanguard account.
I will discuss a new WMB SU bond purchase in my next post. Finra Bond Page 3.75% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 (YTM at TC of 97.281 at 4.955%).
At the current stock price, the short term WMB SU bonds provide me with more yield compared to the common stock and are consequently more attractive to me for new purchases. The dividend yield at $58.08 is 3.27%.
I currently own 6 WMB SU bonds, with 4 maturing on 9/15/25 and 2 on 6/15/27.
5. Treasury Notes Purchased in the Secondary Market:
I am in the very early stages of adding bonds/notes that mature in the 2027 - 2033 time frame.
In 2033, I currently own bonds in the principal amount of $23,000. Of that principal amount, $20,000 is in Tennessee Municipal bonds, all five bond lots, $1,000 in a TIP owned in a RI account, and $2,000 in a 4.5% treasury note discussed below.
I am buying in 1 note lots, $1,000 par values. Since interests rates in the 2027-2033 time frame have trended slightly higher, I have already started to average down from prior purchases.
I discussed what I am doing in a YouTube video. Starting to lower my T Bill purchases at auction -buying more Treasury Notes Maturing in 2027- 2033 - YouTube I would add this caveat. If treasury notes continue their yield decline, similar or close to what happened on 1/15/25, I will be buying $10,000 in next Monday's 6 month T Bill auction and will defer new treasury note purchases next week.
Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
A. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 1/31/29 at a Total Cost of 98.3716 - Schwab Account:
%201:31:29%204%25.png){kind=small}
YTM: 4.442%
I now own 2.
B. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.375% Coupon Maturing on 8/31/28 at a Total Cost of 99.906 - Vanguard Account:
%208:31:28%204.375%25%20.png)
YTM = 4.402%
C. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.5% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/31 at a Total Cost of 99.585:
%2012:31:31%204.5%25%20.png)
YTM: 4.57%
I now own 2. The first note was purchased at the 7 year note auction.
The price has declined slightly since that auction.
D. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.5% Coupon Maturing on 11/15/33 at a Total Cost of 98.2487:
%2011:15:33%20.png){kind=small}
YTM = 4.744%
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| Excerpt Schwab Trade Confirm |
I now own 2.
E Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 9/30/27 at a Total Cost of 99.248:
%204.125%25%209:30:27%20.png){kind=small}
YTM = 4.42%
I now own 2.
F. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 11/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.1202:
%2011:15:27%204.125%25.png){kind=small}
YTM = 4.457%
I now own 3, with each purchase at a slightly lower price.
This one is close to the 3 year treasury maturity. U.S. 3 Year Treasury - CNBC (close as of 1/15/25 at 4.34%)
6. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
Most of my treasury bill purchases are made in my Schwab account where the sweep account pays .2%.
If Wednesday decline in intermediate treasury note rates continues into next Monday, I will be buying $10,000 in the 6 month bill and will postpone any treasury note purchases next week.
A. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 1/13/24 Auction:
%207:17:25%20.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bill
Matures on 7/15/25
Interest: $63.4
Investment Rate: 4.33%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 1/13/25 Auction:
%204:17:25%20.png){kind=small}
91 Day Bill
Matures on 4/17/25
Interest: $21.36
Investment Rate: 4.33%
7. Exchange Traded Bonds:
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
A. Added 5 ELC in Vanguard Taxable Account at $21.15:
Cost: $105.75
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875% paid on the $25 par value
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
My Videos: First Mortgage Bonds Traded Like Stocks - YouTube; First Mortgage Bonds $1,000 Par Values - YouTube
Call protection has expired.
Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Average cost per share this account: $21.71 (25 shares)
Yield this account: 5.6138%
Next Ex Interest: 2/28/25
Maximum Allowed Position in ELC Taxable Accounts: 300 shares (100 in each: Schwab, Vanguard and Fidelity)
8. Equity Preferred Stock:
A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in TECTP - Sold 20 at $10.46 (Vanguard Taxable Account):
Quote: Tectonic Financial Inc. 9% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Preferred Series B Stock
Proceeds: $209.09
The issuer is Tectonic Financial, a private bank holding company based in Texas that has filed its financial results starting with the issuance of this publicly-traded preferred stock. SEC Filings; Investor Relations | T Bank
I recently discussed this equity preferred stock in a comment published on 1/8/25.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 The company reported net income of 4.197M or $.58 per diluted shares. The average weighted diluted shares outstanding was reported at 7.233+M.
Profit Snapshot: +$17.34
Par Value: $10
TECTP is a fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stock.
Dividends: Non-Cumulative, Qualified, and Paid Quarterly
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred, senior only to common stock.
While an equity preferred stock is equity capital, the preferred stock does not represent an ownership interest in the issuer's business.
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Stopper Clause: Standard, enforces the preferred stocks preferential right to cash compared only to the common shares.
Fixed Rate: 9%
This preferred stock transitioned to a floating rate effective for the 2024 third quarter dividend payment..
Floating Rate: 6.72% spread to the now defunct 3 Month Libor
There is a provision in the prospectus for using an alternative short-term rate (pages 168-169)
I could not find a press release or SEC filing that confirmed that the company would use the 3 month SOFR rate + the tenor spread as the alternate rate. The first two floating rate coupons indicate that this is the alternate rate being used in setting the quarterly dividends.
Last 2 Quarterly Dividends at the Floating Rate: The coupon will continue to decline until the FED rate cuts to date have been fully factored into the 3 month SOFR rate.
2024 4th Quarter: $0.3092146 per share. SEC Form 8-K
2024 3rd Quarter: $0.3144353 per share. SEC Form 8-K
The company is currently paying a common share cash dividend which is relevant under the Stopper Clause.
The quarterly dividend under the 9% fixed rate coupon was $0.225 per share. The last payment using the fixed rate was made in the 2024 second quarter.
Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 5/15/24
When discussing fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stocks in a recent YouTube video, I mentioned that issuers will reserve the right to call at par value when the coupon transitions from the fixed coupon to the floating rate one. Floating Rate Equity Preferred Stocks Issued by U S Companies - YouTube
The fact that this high coupon equity preferred stock has not been called confirms IMO the credit risk.
Last Ex Dividend: 11/5/24
TECTP Dividend History | Nasdaq
Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Added to TECTP in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $9.42 (4/30/21 Post); Item # 1.N. Added to TECTP-Bought 10 at $8.24 (1/1/21 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 10 TECTP at $8.59 (12/25/20 Post) I still own those shares in my Schwab account:
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| Price as of 1/10/25 close/AC at $8.75 per share |
It is not possible to calculate the yield at $8.75 with certainty given that the coupon resets every 3 months. If the annual dividend in 1 year was $1.2 per share, the yield would be about 13.71%.
B. Eliminated WBSPRG - Sold 10 at $23.13 and 10 at $23.20 - Two Accounts:
Quote: Webster Financial Corp. 6.5% Preferred A Stock
Proceeds: 463.34
Issuer: Webster Financial Corp. (WBS) - A Bank Holding Company
I have eliminated my position in the common stock.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Profit Snapshots: $49.1
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added to WBSPRG - Bought 3 at $17.94 (5/13/23 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on the $25 par value
Dividends: Paid Quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
Stopper Clause: Standard
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 10/15/22.
This preferred stock was originally issued by Sterling Bancorp which was acquired by WBS. The Sterling preferred stock was converted into WBS preferred shares. SEC Filing
C. Eliminated UMHPRD - Sold 10 at $22.62:
Quote: UMH-PD
Proceeds: $226.19
Issuer: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH) - A REIT that owns manufactured home communities.
UMH SEC Filed Report for the Q/E 9/30/24
Profit Snapshot: $18.66
Last Discussed: Item # 6.C. Bought 5 UMHPRD at $20.28 (10/7/23 Post); Item # 5.A. Started UMHPRD - Bought 5 at $21.23 (8/26/23 Post)
Coupon: 6.375% paid on a $25 par value
Call protection expired on 1/22/23.
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
None of the UMHPRD 2023 dividend payments were classified as return of capital which was the first year that I was paid dividends on this preferred stock. UMH PROPERTIES, INC. ANNOUNCES TAX TREATMENT FOR 2023 DISTRIBUTIONS There was a 60%+ ROC classification for the 2022 dividends.
9. Cash Flow into My Fidelity Account on 1/15/25:
Proceeds from Matured Corporate Bonds: $30,000
On 1/15/25, I bought 5 different corporate bonds, each in 2 bond lots or $10,000 in principal amount.
Dividends and Interest: $1,394.19
Breakdown:
Corporate Bond Interest = $1,237.48 (includes $8.67 from a SU exchange traded bond, ATLCZ, which is probably the riskiest one that I own)
Common Stock Dividends: $102.46 (mostly equity REITs and BDCs)
Preferred Stock Dividends: $39.34 (NHAPP-recently discussed; EPRPRC; GNLPRD; AHHPRA)
Monthly CEF Dividends (IDE, FPF): $14.91
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
