Economy:
Pending Home Sales Slid 4.0% in November The Y-O-Y decline was 37.8%.
Recession Prediction on the Clock | San Francisco Fed
++++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills: +$10,000
Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: +$3,000
Common Stocks: - $1,554.36
(Consisting of $1,955.11 in proceeds minus $400.75 in purchases)
Weighted Average Yield Common Stock Purchases: 8.21%
Realized Common Stock Gains: +$382.19
REIT Equity Preferred Stock: +244
Weighted Average Yield REIT Preferred Stocks: 8.32%
Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds: +$311.1 (weighted average yield at 5.89%)
++++
ETFs: 2022 Total Returns (dividends reinvested):
Indexes:
SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial ETF (DIA) = -7.01%
SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY) = -18.17%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) = -20.48%
Invesco QQQ (QQQ) = -32.58%
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) = -16.09%
VXUS owns some Russian stocks that are currently assigned a zero value.
Sectors:
Fidelity® MSCI Energy ETF (FENY) = +63.09%
Fidelity® MSCI Consumer Staples ETF (FSTA) = -1.72%
VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD) = -8.63%
SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) = -15.1%
Fidelity® MSCI Real Estate ETF (FREL) = -26.31%
Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLK) = -27.73%
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) = -44.68%
First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) = -45.54%
ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) = -50.07%
Bonds:
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) = -15.16%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) = -31.24%
PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury ETF (ZROZ) = -41.3%
Vanguard Intermediate Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) = -13.98%
Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB) = -19.46%
iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) = -7.35%
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) = -13.02%
Precious Metals:
SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) = -.77%
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) = +2.37%
abrdn Physical Precious Metal Basket ETF (GLTR) = .25%
Value vs. Growth:
Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) = -33.15%
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) = -2.07%
++++
Putin and His Country:
In Bucha, a Final Rampage Served as a Coda to a Month of Atrocities - The New York Times Just a bunch of savage psychopaths who are made even more violent when they are drunk which is virtually all of the time. I am being charitable when describing those Russian soldiers.
Deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure facilities, which is routine for Russian Orcs, is a war crime. United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
Another wave of missile attacks attacks occurred on 12/29/22. 120 Russian missiles target Ukrainian cities in fresh strikes – BBC News - YouTube
Starting the new year, more Russian missiles were directed at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, injuring several civilians including a Japanese journalist.
Putin gave a nine minute happy new year rant to his brain dead True Believers that was bombastic, militaristic, fact free which goes without saying, filled to the brim with nonsensical paranoia, and deeply delusional. Putin greets the New Year with attacks on Ukrainian capital of Kyiv - The Washington Post; Ukraine’s Zelensky and Russia’s Putin address their countries on New Year’s Eve – BBC News - YouTube
Putin claimed that Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the illegal annexation of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, the kidnapping and forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, the intentional murder of Ukrainian civilians, the destruction of Ukrainian homes, apartment buildings, hospitals, factories, businesses and nursing homes, and the purposeful attacks on Ukrainian energy and water infrastructure, were and will continue to be necessary to protect the "motherland" and to rid Ukraine of Nazis. If Russians want to find Nazis in Ukraine, they only need to look in the mirror and nowhere else.
The vast majority of Russians accept their dictator's psychopathic and delusional crap without question.
How Russia failed on three fronts in just 10 months - YouTube
Gen. McCaffrey: ‘A Stalemate Is Not A Good Option For Putin’ - YouTube
Putin attempts to undermine oil price cap as global energy markets fracture Democracies need to permanently cease buying Russian products which only provides resources to fund Russia's imperial ambitions.
Another Russian Critic of Putin's War Has Died After Falling From a Window (mokroye delo) Falling out of a window has become commonplace for Putin critics. Sudden Russian Death Syndrome - The Atlantic If the Putin critic resides in Russia, the Gulag or a bullet in the head are the primary methods for addressing critics. Outside of Russia, the Putin's preferred methods throwing the critics out of windows or off cliffs, killing the critic as a poorly staged suicide event, or poisoning them preferably with radioactive or nerve agent substances, though Putin has frequently resorted to other poisons including, for example, the death of the Russian whistleblower Alexander Perepilichny in London who was poisoned with the residue of the highly toxic plant gelsemium.
{As a side note, I enjoyed watching over the holidays seasons 1 and 2 of "Slow Horses", offered by Apple TV. In season 2, the plot included the FSB assassination of a Russian Oligarch critical of the Russian government, who was residing in London, with a radioactive substance. Slow Horses - Wikipedia; Slow Horses season 2 review – Gary Oldman’s spy thriller is a cut above-The Guardian}
Russia’s abductions of Ukrainian children are a genocidal crime - The Washington Post Russia is a state sponsor of child trafficking.
Russia's Isolation Will Trash Its Economy in the Long Run, Experts Say
The only way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is through a ‘military solution’ - YouTube Putin has left the Ukrainians with no choice but to fight until Russia is defeated and withdraws, or Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression no longer exists. If the result is 300,000+ Russian deaths, plus many more with lifetime physical and mental disabilities, and a long term collapse of the Russian economy, then Putin is willing to accept those consequences to remain in power. Ukraine claims that over 100K Russian soldiers have already died in Putin's war.
Putin does not have a reverse gear.
What would happen to Putin in Russia if he ordered his military to leave all of the territory occupied in 2022 as part of a peace settlement?
If Russia is about to lose Crimea, which is likely IMO within the next 12 months, Putin may resort to using use tactical nuclear weapons. If that happens, the result will be a Russian economy that enters a long term depression as that deservedly pariah nation becomes even more isolated. Supply lines to Crimea have already been diminished, Crimea's water supply sourced from the Kakhovka Reservoir located on the Dnipro river may be cut soon (North Crimean Canal), and Ukrainian artillery will soon be in range. The precision of that artillery, particularly the Himars, has been proven again recently, as discussed in the next paragraph. High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) — M142 - USAASC
Ukraine Says Makiivka HIMARS Attack Killed 400 Russians: 'Absolute Carnage'; “Up to 400 Russian soldiers killed” in Ukraine missile strike - BBC News - YouTube Russia had housed the new recruits in a structure that was near a munitions storage depot which exploded and contributed to the carnage.
Russia’s War on Ukraine Worsens Global Starvation - The New York Times
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30 | Critical Threats
'Rogue Russia' is 2023's most dangerous threat: Eurasia Group - MarketWatch
The New Frontier of Russian Propaganda: State Television Mocks the Suffering of Ukrainians - YouTube
Some commentators, including Anne Applebaum, have claimed that Russia can change for the better as has other nations including Germany and Japan.
But those two recent examples required all of the existing power structures in place before and during WWII to be entirely replaced, which was done by external forces after a horrendous world war.
Unlike Japan and Germany after WWII, no external power is going to replace thousands of Putin controlled loyalists, the Putin controlled "parliament", Russian kleptocrats, and Russia's Goebbels like media apparatus, replacing them with an independent judiciary, a free press and a democratically elected parliament with anyone running for office. Those changes will have to come from within Russia, and its history proves beyond any reasonable doubt that Russia will at best replace one violent and hostile authoritarian regime with another one.
+++
Trump and His Party:
The conservative David Brooks summed up the invented personal history of George Santos (R-NY) as follows: "In a sense Santos is a sad, farcical version of where Donald Trump has taken the Republican Party — into the land of unreality, the continent of lies." Lying about almost everything is one of the GOP's "conservative" virtues. George Santos Is Donald Trump Taken to Its Logical End Point
George Santos' Ex-Boyfriend Says He Stole His Phone, Never Went to Work
Brazilian Authorities Will Revive Fraud Case Against George Santos - The New York Times
George Santos also claimed that his maternal grandparents were Jews who fled persecution before WWII and settled in Brazil. Those grandparents were born in Brazil. George Santos' claims his grandparents fled the Holocaust contradicted by genealogy records Santos claimed to be a proud American Jew. Document reveals Santos boasted of being 'proud American Jew' during campaign – The Forward Santos claims that those grandparents were Jews who converted to Catholicism after moving to Brazil to escape prosecution. George Santos Faces Federal and Local Investigations,-The New York Times
Santos was endorsed by Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who replaced Liz Cheney as the House Republican Conference Chair. That Chair is the 4th highest rank in the republican House leadership. Ms. Stefanik also endorsed Carl Paladino who asserted that the murder of 10 people in a Buffalo supermarket may have been a false flag operation designed to help Democrats "revoke the 2nd Amendment". The Invention of Elise Stefanik - The New York Times
Former F.B.I. Agents Lodge Accusations of Bias Against Conservatives - The New York Times
+++
1. Treasury Bill Auctions: +$10,000
December 2022 Yield Curve |
Yield curve as of 1/3/22:
A. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at 12/27/22 Auction:
91 Day Bills
Interest: $32.99
Mature on 3/30/23
Investment Rate: 4.459%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at 12/27/22 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Interest: $46.51
Matures on 6/29/23
Investment Rate: 4.775%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at 12/28/22 Auction:
17 week (119 days) Bills
Mature on 5/2/23
Interest: $75.2
Investment Rate: 4.684%
2. Small Ball Buys:A. Added to EPP.PRC - Bought 5 at $18.74; 5 at $17.75:
Quote: EPR Properties 5.75% Cumulative Convertible Preferred Series C Stock
Issuer: EPR Properties (EPR)
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I recently discussed this currently busted convertible preferred stock. Item # 2.C. Added 5 EPR.PRC at $19.35 (12/20/22 Post)
Coupon: 5.75% paid on a $25 par value
Average cost per share: $19.45 (20 shares)
Yield at AC : 7.39%
Last Ex dividend: 12/29/22 (owned all as of)
EPR.PRC Trading Profits to Date: $656.54
B. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $21.05; 5 at $20.25:
Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066
Investment category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds
Average cost per share this account: $21.84 (30 shares)
Yield at AC this account: 5.58%
Last Ex Interest Date: 11/29/22
Coupon: 4.875% paid on a $25 par value
Interest: Paid quarterly
Trades Flat
Security: First Mortgage
Issuer Call Option: Callable on or after 9/1/21 at par value + accrued and unpaid interest
Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless redeemed earlier at issuer's option.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Added 5 ELC at $21.72 -Fidelity Taxable Account (12/13/22 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4.B. Sold 30 ELC at $24.87- Used Commission Free Trade (5/1/2019 Post)
C. Added to CIZN in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $13.14; 5 at $12.75:
Quote: Citizens Holding Co. (CIZN)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average cost per share this account: $13.52 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)
CIZN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $13.52 AC per share: 7.1%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/17/22
Last Discussed: Item # 5.C. Started CIZN in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $14.1 (11/22/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
D. Added to DEA - Bought 5 at $13.65:
Quote: Easterly Government Properties Inc.
Properties | Easterly Government Properties, Inc.
Average cost per share: $18.58 (101+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.265 per share ($1.06 annually)
I started to reinvest the dividend effective for the last payment.
Yield at $18.58 AC per share: 5.7%
Yield at $13.65: 7.7656%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/22
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.F. Added to DEA in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $14.94; 5 at $14.17 (12/20/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report and other recent developments in that post and nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release
DEA Realized Gains to Date: $561.24
E. Added to EMP in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $20.92:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bond
Average cost per share this account: $21.88 (30 shares )
Yield at $21.88: 5.6%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Security: First Mortgage
Par Value = $25
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Maturity: 10/1/2066 unless issuer exercises early optional call
Last Ex interest date: 12/29/22 (owned all as of)
EMP Trading Profits to date: $464.9
Maximum Position All Accounts: 300 shares
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Added 5 EMP in Vanguard Taxable Account at $21.75 (12/6/22 Post) I own 30 shares in that account.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 5.A. Pared EMP-Sold 5 at $26.84 (6/27/20 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87 (5/1/19 Post)
Purchase Restriction: Averaging down in 3 taxable account in 5 share lots.
F. Added to BDN - Bought 5 at $6.03:
Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN)
Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Average cost per share: $8.12 (115+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)
BDN Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at new AC per share: 9.36%
Yield at $6.03: 12.6%
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Added to BDN - Bought 5 at $6.2 (12/13/22 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 7.F. Added to BDN - Bought 3 at $6.53 (11/15/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filing
G. Added to HPP.PRC - Bought 5 at $12.31:
Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. 4.750% Cumulative Preferred
Par Value: $25
Investment Category: Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed Item # 2.A. Added 70 HPP.PRC at $12.98 (12/20/22 Post) I mentioned in that post that I would stop at 100 shares but I have now decided to add to this equity preferred stock in 5 or 10 share increments. Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest purchase price. The yield is too attractive at the current price or lower.
I don't believe the rise in interest rates justifies the current yield. Generally, I would expect a REIT equity preferred stock from a non-financially stressed issuer to trade at a 3% to 4% premium to the 10 year treasury yield. At $12.31, the yield is 9.65% which is close to a 6% premium.
I suspect that the price reflects some significant concern about credit risk. Currently, I am not concerned about that risk but recognize the concern of others expressed in the current price.
I discussed HPP's last earnings report in a recent post. Item # 3.B. (12/27/22 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental As discussed in that post, HPP owns premium west coast office properties and studios, primarily in San Francisco and Los Angeles, but also has a significant amount of debt.
View All the HPP Properties | Hudson Pacific Properties
Redefining Studios in Los Angeles | Hudson Pacific Properties
As a reminder, HPP pays cumulative preferred dividends and the entire cash payment must be made when any cash dividend is paid to the common shareholder or cash is used to buy common stock.
And, a REIT has to pay a common stock dividend to maintain its tax status when it has net income.
In the event a REIT is so financially stress that it must eliminate the common share dividend to preserve capital, and that happened with Hotel REITs in 2020, I would then anticipate that the cumulative preferred stock dividend would be deferred. The entire deferred preferred stock dividends would then have to be paid in full prior to paying a common share cash dividend.
Average cost per share: $13.54 (105 shares)
Yield at AC = 8.77%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/16/22 (owned 100 as of)
Chart as of 12/30/22: IPO at $25 in November 2021
H. Added to PFLT - Bought 10 at $10.95-Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT)
Website: PFLT - PennantPark
10-K for the fiscal year ending 9/30/22 (Summary of risk factors starts at page 16 and ends at page 37)
I decided to buy back shares in this account that were sold at $14.07 earlier this year. Item # 7.E. Sold Highest Cost 20 PFLT Shares Purchased with Dividends at $14.07 - Schwab Taxable Account (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.13) This ten share purchase raised my AC per share slightly.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.G. Bought 10 PFLT at $6.06; 4 at $5.75 (6/6/20 Post)
New Average Cost per share this account = $9.23 (92+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.095 per share (regular dividend only)
PFLT Dividend History | Nasdaq
I quit reinvesting the dividend effective for the November 2020 payment but resumed reinvestment starting with the October 2022 payment due to the price decline.
Yield at $9.23 AC per share this account = 12.35%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/16/22
Net Asset value per share history:
9/30/22: $11.62
12/31/21: $12.70
3/31/21: $12.71 Press Release 2021 1st Q Earnings
3/31/20: $12.20 10-Q at page 5
12/31/19: $12.95
9/30/19: $12.97
6/30/19: $13.07
3/21/19: $13.24
12/31/18 $13.66
9/30/18 $13.82
6/30/18: $13.82
9/30/17: $14.10
9/30/16: $14.06
9/30/15: $13.95
9/30/14: $14.40
9/30/13: $14.10
9/30/12: $13.98
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. Announces Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended September 30, 2022
NII per share: $.29 GAAP
Non-GAAP NII per share = $.30 (excludes 1 cent per share related to the cost of a credit facility amendment)
Weighted average yield on debt investments: 10%
Debt portfolio: 100% variable rate
"As of
PFLT Estimate of Interest Rate Changes on NII:
Other sell discussions: Item # 3 Sold 102 PFLT in Schwab Account at $13.26- Highest Cost Lots (7/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.92); Item # 2.A. Eliminated PFLT in Fidelity Account-Sold 81+ at $12.01 (12/14/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $29.66)
PFLT Realized Gains to Date: $135.27
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
I. Added 5 HOPE in Vanguard Taxable Account at $12.68:
Quote: Hope Bancorp Inc.
HOPE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 12/31/22, the 2022 consensus E.P.S. was $1.83, up from $1.64 in 2021, and $1.76 in 2023. At $12.68 and using the $1.76 average E.P.S. for 2023, the P/E is 7.2.)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average cost per share this account: $13.13 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share, last raised from $.13 effective for the 2018 third quarter payment. Hope Bancorp, Inc. Dividend History | Nasdaq
I view the dividend history unfavorably.
Yield at $13.13 AC per share this account: 4.265%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/2/22
Last Discussed: Item # 3.I Started HOPE in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 HOPE at $13.35 (8/20/21 Post)Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22):
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.N. Pared HOPE-Sold 17+ at $15.59 (6/4/21 Post); Item # 1.H. Pared HOPE in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 22 at $15.52 and 14 at $15.96 (4/1/21 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2021 third quarter.
A. Eliminated Remaining KMB in Fidelity Account - Sold 5+ at $137.87:
Proceeds: +$744.05Profit Snapshot: +$66.85 (12/23/22 sale only)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 3.D. Sold 1 KMB in Fidelity Account at $136.97 (12/13/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.D. Eliminated KMB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 3 at $138.44 and Eliminated KMB in Schwab Account - Sold 3+ at $136.55(12/20/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $64.21)
Consider to repurchase price: Less than 18 times forward year consensus E.P.S. estimate. As of 12/31/22, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2023 is at $6.37, so the maximum re-entry price would be less than $114.66. Given the recent earnings reports, I am skeptical that the E.P.S. number will increase from the 2022 estimated $5.62, down from $6.15 in 2021, to $6.37 in 2023.
B. Pared BHB Again- Sold 10 Shares at $31.4:
Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)
Bar Harbor Bankshares Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Proceeds = $313.99
I sold my highest cost 10 shares. The remaining shares have a cost basis below $20.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$103.99 (12/27/22 sale only)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Eliminated BHB in in Vanguard and Schwab Accounts - Sold 10 at $30.69 and 5 at $30.74 (12/20/22 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 4.D. Pared BHB in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $30 (12/6/22) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
New Average Cost per share: $16.46 (2o Shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 12/27/22 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
Yield at $16.46: 6.32%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/15/22
BHB Realized Gains to date: +$4,734.57
C. Eliminated GTY - Sold 5 at $35.65 and 20 at $35.69:
Quote: Getty Realty Corp.
Proceeds: $897.07
Website: Getty Realty
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshots: +$211.35
Fidelity: $167.53 (12/27/22 sale only)
Schwab: +$43.82
Dividend: Quarterly at $.43 per share ($1.72 annually), last raised from $.41 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
The yield at $35.69 is 4.82%, which is substantially below recent REIT purchases. Another yield comparison is to the first mortgage bond, discussed below, that matures on 3/15/24 and has a YTM of 4.85% at my total cost.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/21/22 (owned all, 25 shares, as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Pared GTY in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $33.48 (12/13/22 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 6.I. Pared GTY in my Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold Highest Cost 5 Share Lot at $30.89 (11/8/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release
4. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 1 DTE Electric 3.65% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 3/15/24 at a Total Cost of $98.601:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of DTE Energy Co. (DTE)
DTE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
DTE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/22 (operating net income of $311M)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings: Aa3/A
Fitch has an A+ rating. Fitch Rates DTE Electric Company's 2022 Series A and B Mortgage Bonds 'A+'
Security: First Mortgage
YTM at Total Cost: 4.849%
Current Yield at TC = 3.7%
B. Bought 2 Piedmont Operating L.P. 4.45% SU Maturing on 3/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.644:
I now own 4 bonds.
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. (PDM) who guarantees the notes.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.628%
Current Yield at TC = 4.51%
Previous Purchase Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 2 Piedmont Office REIT L.P. 4.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.206 (11/8/22 Post)
5. Cash Flow Into Fidelity Taxable Account on 1/3/23 (first business day):
Some of those securities are held in multiple taxable accounts. For example, the largest PFLT position is in my Schwab taxable account, discussed in Item # 2.H. above. I own only 15 PFLT shares in my Fidelity with a $5.96 AC per share:
For securities that pay on the first business day, the largest dollar category will be my Tennessee municipal bonds. I own those bonds in 3 taxable accounts.
From the Fidelity Account Snapshots:
Tennessee Municipal Bonds = $250
Corporate Bonds= $78.25 ($62 from FM bond)
Treasury Notes = $98.13
Common Stocks = $65.81 (PFLT pays monthly)
CDs Monthly Interest = $32.43 (Live Oak, multiple maturities)
Equity Preferred Stocks = $8.09
CEFs (monthly payments) = $30.69
Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds = $6.74 (quarterly)
The general idea is to generate a constant cash flow throughout the month from a diversified and large number of securities.
E.G. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account 12/29-30/22:
12/30/22: $244.14
12/29/22: $76.73
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
That's a dense read. I don't follow all of the math. But the question of unemployment not following the recession pattern, is a key topic.
ReplyDeleteI signed up in case they publish an article that says the indicator is here. There's no option to monitor the data & figure it out myself.
I'd like a crash and to convert my 401k. So to reduce taxable interest and divs in the same year, ideally I'd buy municipal bonds that are Fed tax free, that can be sold in a month or two, so the funds are ready for the market. I don't think such a think exists.
Land: Economic data so far, including the employment numbers, are not consistent with an ongoing recession or one that is about to start within 1 or 2 quarters.
DeleteThe recession signal given by the treasury yield inversion, which has historically been an excellent one, may be a false one this time, caused by the rapid and significant increases in the FF rate off ZIRP last year rather than reflecting a consensus market signal opinion that a recession was about to occur.
Could be - this time is different.
DeleteIt's also looked like there wasn't euphoria type customer spending leading up to the inversion. There was leading up to 2008. Except I think there is this time... in "experience" purchases such as travel is heated the way retail in store buying was pre-2008.
There are earnings slowing. The housing market slowdown will cascade to other sectors. Without a recession, will it cause more market pullback?
What's been the trigger for other inflations? In this case it's supply chain from covid. Plus war. Inflation is causing the inversion (causing the Fed policy.)
ReplyDeleteLand: This article may answer your question:
Deletehttps://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-is-inflation
I believe that a considerable part of the current problematic inflation is due to rapid and unsustainable increases in commodity price and supply chain bottlenecks. Commodity prices have come way down from the peak last year and supply chain problems are in the process of resolving. In many product sectors, supply has now overwhelmed demand that has contributed to price cutting.
Part of the problem was that demand was severely depressed during the pandemic period and then surged rapidly way above normal when almost everything was returning, or had already returned back to normal. That parabolic fall and rapid increase created supply imbalances that led to price increases along the supply chain, which would have occurred without the abnormal disruptions unrelated to consumer demand that contributed to the price increases.
Land: Profit margins may be improving now due in significant part to the lower input costs and an amelioration of supply chain problems. Housing will be a drag but may pick up in the Spring provided mortgage rates continue to trend down. The stock market received a minor lift today in response to a decline in intermediate and longer term treasury yields. The ten year yield fell 10 basis points to 3.69%.
ReplyDeletehttps://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202301
The dominant trend has been down since a close at 4.22% on 11/7/22.
One positive economic force is that savers are finally receiving income on savings accounts, CDs, MM funds and treasury bills which adds to their disposable income. The current yields will probably generate about $500B+ annually in additional income for households compared to what was received during a typical ZIRP year.
The Vanguard MM fund has a 7 day yield of 4.23% and generated over $500 for me last month.
ZIRP and QE had a positive wealth effect for investors in stocks, but had a massive negative impact for those who invested in risk free or relatively free risk income investments.
Excluding increases in retirement accounts due to the post 2008 stock rally, most of the stock wealth is concentrated in wealthiest 10% of households, who, for the most part, do not need to source current spending from income generation in risk free savings.
The increases in disposable income after mortgage payments due to refinancings is probably behind us which is fine for those who have already locked in a low rate long term.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP
At least households who have increased disposable income through mortgage refinancing have the option of sourcing spending from those savings, rather than using credit card debt, or can invest the savings in relatively risk free short term investments that pay more than 4%.
That's a very good point that interest will shift the consumer's buying power substantially.
DeleteIt's a quick and total shift. I've thoroughly enjoyed getting 4+% on nearly all my cash. Much better returns than my equities this last year (2022).
Meanwhile, most banks are still offering < .5% and people are sticking with them. So the rates will take a while to filter into consumer spending fully.
The difference in the market's direction today compared to yesterday IMO is due to a slight uptick in interest rates today. Neither the slide yesterday nor the uptick today are meaningful for economic activity or corporate profits.
ReplyDeleteI do not see any change in the market's forecast today for inflation, compared to yesterday, as reflected in the breakeven inflation rate for TIPs. The markets are reacting to some relatively hawkish comments from the FED Governor Esther George and the FED minutes released yesterday that no current voting member expected a FF cut this year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/05/feds-esther-george-sees-rates-staying-high-at-least-into-2024.html
The ten year breakeven inflation rate closed yesterday at 2.22%, the average annual CPI rate over the next 10 years for a buyer of the 10 year TIP to breakeven with the buyer of the higher current yield nominal 10 year treasury. The current breakeven is about 2.211%
The news articles are using "good news is bad news" with the better employment picture.
DeleteThat's strong, yet while tech and big companies are laying off.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-5-2023-123028965.html
The reports and Fed speak seem likely to have pushed up rates slightly. ... leading to the market down day.
There was a sharp rise on every index at 1pm. But I didn't spot a news article to explain it. By end of day it got absorbed into the bigger picture.
I looked for VMRXX at ameritrade. But it's closed there. I'd like to find another MM at 4.2% ish for holding cash at someplace in addition to Vanguard.
DeleteI put the news on. It's like listening to kids playing and tousling on a merry go round with a bet to see how long they can keep it spinning, no matter who's turning pale green.
DeleteQuestion's been raised whether this portends it being hard to get the GOP to pass a debt ceiling extension. That may be a good time to buy some shares.
Did I post the link on employment that I referenced?
Deletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-5-2023-123028965.html
Now I see the 1pm spike.
Delete"ecb-should-hit-terminal-rate-by-summer-then-hold-villeroy-says"
(I haven't read due to paywall.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-05/ecb-should-hit-terminal-rate-by-summer-then-hold-villeroy-says?srnd=markets-vp
Land: I am not aware of any brokerage sweep account that pays as much as Vanguard. The alternative at Schwab and TD Ameritrade is to purchase a Schwab non-sweep MM fund, but the yield will be significantly lower since the expense ratio is higher. I have bought one in my Schwab account, but prefer using spare cash in that account to buy treasury bills at auction. The Schwab sweep account pays .4%.
DeleteFidelity is close to 3.8% on its sweep MM fund.
Before the republicans took control over the House, Congress passed a debt extension which will last at least July 2023 before the Treasury has to start taking extraordinary measures to avert a default.
https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling
The House republicans have made it crystal clear that they will condition the next extension on the Democrats agreeing to republican policy objectives, which will not happen. The odds of a default late this year are high IMO.
I have started to buy investment grade corporate bonds again, having convinced myself that I am willing to accept a 5%+ YTM for bonds maturing before 4/1/25.
0.4%? Umm. They must be raking in the money on the spread.
DeleteSo a mere 5+% is appealing. If I didn't want to get into the market, I'd be buying those. My dad didn't want to.
Fidelity is at least in the ballpark!
July should be interesting for the market. I don't think I'll watch the news though, so I can keep my spirits up.
Land: You can probably buy a Schwab Treasury MM fund at TD Ameritrade that pays slightly more than the Fidelity version.
DeleteI just checked the seven day yield on the one that I purchased in my Schwab account. The yield is 3.99%:
Schwab Treasury Obligations MM Fund - Investor Shares (SNOXX) That fund will be offered at TD Ameritrade but will have a different symbol.
Selling shares and transferring proceeds into my Sweep Account would probably take 1 business day to clear. I do not know whether a sell order has a time requirement for next day settlement.
I am basically treating treasury bill purchases at auctions as my sweep account alternative in the Schwab account. I have participated in that account in this weeks 91, 119 and 182 day treasury auctions, buying $5K of each.
For treasury bills as a sweep account, you'd have to sell on 2ndary market to get out if it seems a good time to buy stocks?
DeleteSNOXX - thanks! It is by that ticker in Ameritrade and looks like it can be bought commission free.
I've been trying to figure out how these mutual funds distribute. Is it monthly, on what date? Is it last months average balance like a bank or your holdings on date of distribution which is what I'd expect?
Looking at the prospectuses (which don't seem to say anything about distribution schedule)... Swab has a few other MM type funds.
https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=pros&clientid=amtd&fundid=808515621
SWVXX - 7 day sec is 4.27%
"invests in high-quality short-term money market investments"
SNVXX - 3.91%
SNSXX - 3.70%
In Ameritrade, you can sell, and buy from the not-yet-settled funds immediately. As long as it's <$5 /share and other similar risky stock restrictions.
It is a mutual fund that's not tradable like a stock. So probably it can't be used till the next day. (I just tried to buy a test amount.)
DeleteLand: I have a constant flow of maturing treasury bills and bonds and a cash balance in MM funds. I have no difficulty funding new purchases out of existing cash balances but could dip if needed into proceeds from maturing securities to buy stocks.
DeleteToday, I was a stock seller.
The slightly lower than expected gain in wages, which has been trending down on an annual basis, fed into the problematic inflation is in the rear view mirror scenario. The ten year treasury yield fell 16 basis points to 3.55%.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202301
I have become more optimistic about inflation coming down as evidence by recent comments, including one posted above, and discussions of inflation reports.
SNOXX owns treasuries with a weighted average maturity of 7.1 days. So it will be very sensitive to up and down changes in the FF rate.
https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/snoxx
There is no charge for buying that MM fund at Schwab which is also the case at TD:
https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=SNOXX
The TD webpage page shows that it is a no transaction fee fund for SWVXX
https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=SWVXX
I suspect that SWVXX owns mostly corporate paper. The yield will be higher than a treasury MM fund but state taxation of dividends will come into play. I just bought $1K of SWVXX in my Schwab account. Tennessee has no state income tax.
My order to buy the Schwab MM fund SWVXX, placed about 1 hour after the market closed yesterday at 3:00 P.M. CDT, was not filled. The fill will be on Monday. That answers my previous question when an order has to be placed to receive same day execution for a purchased money market fund. The answer is 3:00 P.M. CDT, the same as any other mutual fund.
DeleteI will generally keep my Schwab sweep account very low given its yield of .4% Mostly I use T Bills as a sweep alternative in that account but I have funds available for next day purchase by redeeming from the purchased MM funds or simply waiting for a T bill to mature.
For me, the issue is not whether I have significant funds available in my Schwab account to quickly make significant stock purchases. If I ever decide to make a substantial move quickly into stocks, which will not happen, there are more than adequate funds in my Vanguard MM accounts to fund those purchases and to a much lesser extent in my Fidelity and IB accounts. In other words, I do not need to source purchases from the available cash in my Schwab account which has by far the lowest sweep account rate, or to wait for bonds and treasury bill to mature.
And, even during an ongoing carnage in stocks, I tend to shift gradually into stocks. In February-April 2009, the shift out of cash and short term high quality bonds (mostly sold in February 2009) into stocks was over $100K, but that was like a daily slow mo move and the shift continued at a relatively slow pace through the remaining months in 2009 and into 2010.
The possibility of a soft landing seems to be increasing. The CPI this week (thurs?) will move the market one way or the other.
DeleteI need to start taking tax into account when parking cash.
The SWVXX description puts US treasures later in it's list with commercial first, so that goes with your thoughts on being more corporate.
I need to figure out if a sale will lose divs since the last distribution (vs Vang's sweep account that seems to count day to day.)
I keep forgetting that removing cash from Ameritrade doesn't stop last minute buys... because the cash is in Vanguard. I even highlighted that in bright yellow the other day! It means buys will be in Vang, when I find Amer much easier to monitor. But I can transfer the shares. Ameritrade also gives immediate access to $50k checks for purchases.
It's suddenly a different world where moving a larger sum around loses money during the 2-3 days. I've contributed to my 2023 already this year.
I've looked regularly for stocks to sell. The only thing left lately are the major ETFs. Maybe a few bank shares. I'm already at < 50% in stocks, so rather than additional timing, I probably need to sit still for a bit more. Or start buying.
Delete----
If I convert my 401k this year:
1) I need to find ways to get less interest, more capgains on earnings or Fed tax free interest.
2) I don't have much in ETFs at a loss, but can sell what's there and buy a similar ETF to harvest the loss without the wash sale rule canceling it. Such as VOO for SPY.
So far it looks like it'll be 30+% tax no matter how I work it. At 70-80k in taxes, it'll take quite a while to recover the benefit in a Roth. If there's a crash, then I'm in luck since there'll be less to convert. It's already 1/2 in a short term bond fund, so 10% market decline has 5% in the 401k. With the market down quite a bit now, and based on historic declines, it may not go that much further. This is where my dad likes to say, "you should have only such worries" and I lose track of what I was trying to figure out.
LAND: I looked at the holdings of SWVXX and there were no treasuries. That fund owns mostly bank commercial paper, asset backed commercial paper and certificates of deposit that go light years beyond FDIC insurance limits.
Deletehttp://hosted.rightprospectus.com/SF/MMD/Fund.aspx?cu=808515605
Main Page:
https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/swvxx
Most investors might want to forget about the .25% extra yield over a pure treasury MM fund, particularly if the state has an income tax that would take away part of the SWVXX yield advantage.
MM interest accrues daily and is paid monthly.
While I am primarily a bond investor now, as my Stock Jock days are a mostly distant memory, I do keep an inventory of stocks that can be sold, generally ranging in the 200 to 300 individual stock range. Most of the positions are really small but profitable trades add up over the course of a year.
I do not view short term bond funds as an alternative to buying individual investment grade corporate bonds, treasury bills and short term treasury notes.
All of my corporate bond purchases have been a discounts to par value. While many of the short term securities are currently price by third party services used by my brokers below my purchase price, I will receive a return in excess of the interest rates as the securities mature or are redeemed early. That is not the case for a bond fund.
One of the lowest expense ratio short term corporate bond funds the "iShares 0-5 Year Invmt Grade Corp Bd ETF (SLQD)
The 1 year total return of that fund is -3.53% and the 3 year annual average total return is +.01%, which in bond fund land earns that fund a 4 star rating by Morningstar:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/slqd/performance
The problem is that a bond fund does not promise to pay a sum certain on a date certain. Investors in those funds may never receive positive total returns, though the dividends would create a tax liability when owned in a taxable account that could easily result in a negative total return after taxes and before an inflation adjustment is made.
My short term corporate bond portfolio, with over $700K maturing in 2023-2024, will generate total returns in excess of 4%. It is not sexy but will handily beat a short term bond fund's return.
I have been considering moving 401k money to an IRA precisely because bond funds are not bonds. The only offers that aren't stock ETFs (or IBM shares) are bond funds. This short term fund is the "cash" option.
DeleteThe 401k's fees are very low on ETFs so it's an advantage over time if fully invested. I need to weight that against moving money out permanently, so I can get an actual MM cash option in an traditional IRA.
I am still stunned that a 401k that serves all of IBM employees and ex-employees, doesn't have any cash-like option. Who thinks a bond fund is the "safe" opposite of stocks?? I've asked a few times to make sure I wasn't missing the obvious. I can't even find out the rate of return on this bond fund in a timely way. I was told, "it's not transparent, sorry about that."
But ETF fees of .02% are appealing. And there's a mid-small cap index fund that's done very well over many years.
Currently this fund is up over 2% year to date for 2022. So it's okay so far. I don't know how.
Roth conversion is a different topic. I can convert into their Roth 401k. Then stay or move to a Roth IRA. (Converting in their own is the best method because they move shares otherwise, they sell at 4pm and provide cash for you to move elsewhere.)
So far this week, I have bought 5 separate corporate bonds, buying 2 of each or $10,000 in principal amount. I will 3 purchases in my next post.
ReplyDeleteAn example is 2 Camden Property 4.25% SU Maturing on 1/15/24 that was bought at a 99.084 total cost, creating a YTM of 5.28%. The bond is rated A3/A-.
Finra Page:
https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C647980
The common stock has a 3.43% yield at today's closing price of $109.67:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cpt?mod=search_symbol
I would whether own the bond than the stock.
Rates will come down when inflation is under control or if there's a recession. So buying into good rates will likely pay off nicely. Especially for capital preservation.
DeleteVIX is still over 20 at 22.5-ish. If there's a spike I'll do some buying. There isn't a feeling of 'blood in the streets' or panic fear yet at all.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's going to be a bumpy week as the market anticipates the next big data point...
ReplyDeleteI don't know whether to take Forbes seriously (same as any pundit)... but he's expecting a recession that hits the wealthy harder than usual.
ReplyDelete"Millionaire and Forbes Media’s CEO warned that wealthy wallets may already be taking "big hits" from an inevitable economic recession coming this year.
"The big hits are going to come in 2023," Steve Forbes told FOX Business’...they're taking a proportionate hit in a ways they haven't done in past recessions. This whole era we're in now is so different from anything we've had before."
""You have consumers in debt, their savings rate is now down to a little more than 2%, you have companies that were accustomed to getting free money for year after year after year," ..."Suddenly they're paying real money for that once free money, and a lot of companies and countries are going to be in crisis. So I think a lot of turbulence is going to be lying ahead. Not good for asset values.""
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wealthy-wallets-take-momentous-hit-us-recession-forbes
Land: Asset prices were taken to unsustainable levels IMO by extraordinarily abnormal CB monetary policies maintained for more than a decade.
DeleteSome adjustments in price are necessary, and 2022 may turn out to be just the first leg of the adjustments.
However, looking at current interest rates from a long term historical perspective, I can not maintain a worry state for long. Rates are benign for the economy using post WWII history as a guide, rather than comparing the current levels with the abnormal ones in existence starting in 2008.
Forbes talked about proportionate hits for the wealthy. I am not sure what he means by "proportionate". The absolute dollar number will be proportionately higher for those who have tens of millions invested but the percentage decline may not be much different from the average investor who may have up to $100K invested, mostly in retirement accounts.
That's true that this interest rate isn't a problem, it's only a contrast.
DeleteMostly this rate with money that's not free, has a chance to re-set valuations, now that rates are being reset into historic norms.
I don't think of 1M as wealthy for his reference. So far high end spending has held up and held companies up. So his idea hasn't held yet. Could be interesting if the re-set covers broader levels of the economy. I think he means the market or business lead positions will take a hit.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/01/argopra-eai-fcntx-feny-fhb-fnb-fsptx.html