Friday, May 17, 2024

AEP, ARGD, AVA, BKH, BRT, CVI, D, ELC, EVRG, FTS, IP, OGE, RIGL, SAMG, WEC, WMB

Economy

April CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M04 Results

Annual CPI: 3.4%, down from 3.5% through March

Core CPI: 3.6%, down from 3.8% through March

Month-To-Month CPI: = +.3%

Month-To-Month Core CPI:  +.3%

Annual Owners Equivalent Rent: +5.8% non-seasonally adjusted (an absurd number in an absurd fictional expense category) This is the third month in a row where the month-to-month increase was reported at seasonally adjusted +.4%. 

Homeownership Rate in the United States- St. Louis Fed +65.6% in the 2024 first quarter. For homeowners, inflation in home prices is not an expense item, but an increase in unrealized profit.  

My Video: Owners Equivalent Rent, a fictional expense, is distorting the CPI numbers higher - YouTube

Blue Line Is CPI without Shelter/Red Line - Just Shelter

Sourced: Gimme shelter: The lag in inflation for living spaces | FRED Blog

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.6% in the second quarter. The estimate from Goldman Sachs is currently at 3.2%. 

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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bills: $15,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bond: $15,000 in principal amount 

CDs: $7,000

Common Stocks: -$6,287.67

(consisting of $6,824.02 in proceeds minus $536.35 in purchases)

I sold most of my utility stocks. 

Realized Gain Common Stocks: +$651.82

Inflow Exchange Traded Bonds: +$435.19

Outflows Discussed in Posts: 

2024 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds = -$27,537,17

2023 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$27,091.82

+++++

Trump Does Not Care About You

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Supreme Court Justice Alito’s House Displayed a ‘Stop the Steal’ Flag After Jan. 6 - The New York Times Flying the U.S. flag upside down was common among Trump supporters who believed that the election was stolen from him. In a email to the NYT, Alito admitted that the flag flown at his home was upside down after January 6th, but claimed that this was done by his wife, not him, and was not done in sympathy with Trump's claim about a stolen election. Instead, Alito said it was in response to a neighbor's sign that used an expletive in reference to Trump, which of course makes no sense whatsoever. 

Upside-down US flag flew at home of Justice Samuel Alito after 2020 election, New York Times reports 

Nikki Haley racks up votes in Maryland and Nebraska - YouTube Haley continues to win close to 20% of primary votes even though she exited the race about 2 months ago. The issue is how many of those persons have become Never Trump Again voters. The only cure for the GOP is for Trump to decisively lose the 2024 election, leaving no doubt among those capable of thought that he lost. Trump and his acolytes will not accept any election loss, no matter how great.

I published a video describing how Trump stiffed small business owners who provided services/materials at one of his projects or failed to pay some employees at his casinos what he owed them. "Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn't pay his bills" - YouTube

In that video, I referenced the following article published in 2016: USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills I even remember where I first read that article. I was at a casino in Evansville, Indiana and saw the USA Today paper with that headline. It made an impression on me.  No one who is familiar with Trump's history could rationally believe that he cares about anyone other than himself.   

Hundreds Claim Donald Trump Doesn't Pay His Bills in Full

Trump's willingness to stiff people who worked for him has come up many times in testimony during the NY criminal trial.

IRS Audit Could Cost Trump $100 Million — ProPublicaTrump May Owe $100 Million From Double-Dip Tax Breaks, Audit Shows - The New York Times The IRS is reportedly claiming that Trump deducted losses from his Chicago office building twice. 

Quid pro quo:' Trump vowed to gut climate laws in exchange for $1B from oil bosses - YouTubeAt a Dinner, Trump Assailed Climate Rules and Asked $1 Billion From Big Oil - The New York TimesTrump seeks $1 billion from oil CEOs, vows to limit EVs - The Washington Post

FEC must investigate apparent Trump campaign cover-up of settlements - CREW | Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in WashingtonTrump Campaign Hid Settlements With Women, New Complaint Says 

Trump’s Wildwood, NJ Rally in 95 Seconds - YouTube

The New York Appellate Court rejected Trump's request to modify the gag order, finding that Judge Merchan "properly weighed petitioner’s First Amendment Rights against the court’s historical commitment to ensuring the fair administration of justice in criminal cases, and the right of persons related or tangentially related to the criminal proceedings from being free from threats, intimidation, harassment, and harm." Trump v Merchan (Order).pdf

Paul Ryan calls Trump a 'populist, authoritarian narcissist' - POLITICO 

Ryan, who was the republican Speaker of the House and the GOP's VP candidate when Mitt Romney ran and lost against Obama, said that he would not vote for Trump in November. Paul Ryan says he won’t vote for Trump: ‘I’m gonna write in a Republican’ | The Hill

Trump had a predictable response: 

Paul Ryan is not a RINO. Trump is the RINO.  

Trump is spending most of his court-free days without public campaign events 

Stormy Daniels court appearance reopens wounds for Trump’s #MeToo accusers - The Washington Post Trump's lawyer Todd Blanche threatened the Washington Post with a defamation suit if it ran this story summarizing alleged Trump sexual assaults against other women besides E. Jean Carroll. Republicans are never going to accept any of those claims as true. It is does not matter how many women come forward. {My video: Why do Trump supporters disparage all of the women who have accused him of sexual misconduct - YouTube)  

Fareed Zakaria on Trump's chances of retaking the White House - YouTube

Tired - YouTube

"The fight is fixed": Legal expert calls out Judge Cannon as "MAGA activist in a black robe" The Democrat Senator Robert Menendez, who was indicted in September 2023 and his trial started last week. In the Florida documents case, Trump was indicted on 6/8/23 and his trial may never happen due to Judge Cannon's handling of the case.  

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden - The New York Times

Nicholas Kristof says press ‘shouldn’t be neutral’ with coverage of Trump’s threats to democracy 

Steve Bannon: Appeals court upholds contempt-of-Congress conviction for defying Jan. 6 subpoena 

A Georgia judge found someone who voted illegally. Georgia Republican Party official voted illegally nine times, judge rules

++++

Putin and His Terrorist State

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war

'ATACMS strike' takes out Russian ammo dump in occupied Luhansk - YouTube

Russia is using guided aerial bombs to destroy residential neighborhoods in Kharkiv as part of its ongoing terrorist campaign against civilians, the same tactics used by Russia in Aleppo, Syria. Drone footage shows Ukrainian village battered to ruins as residents flee Russian advance - The Washington Post

Ukrainian Drone Derails Train on Moscow-Volgograd Line, Russia - YouTube

Huge ATACMS Strike on Belbek Air Base Destroys S-400 Launchers, Radar, Mig-31 and X3 Su-27! - YouTubeFour Fighter Jets Confirmed Destroyed at Belbek by ATACMS in Satellite Imagery (Two Mig-31) - YouTubeBelbek Air Base Attacked for a Second Night Missile or Fuel Storage Hit - YouTube

Russian Commander in Crimea Killed in Ukraine Attack: Reports

Russia should nuke 'little Britain' and all of Europe to 'sink it', propagandist - YouTube

Putin has severed economic ties with the western democracies by his imperialistic ambitions. In exchange, he has sacrificed Russian lives and treasure in a war that he started in Ukraine, which was never a threat to Russia's security, but its economic success and eventual integration into the EU would make Putin's pathetic leadership of Russia look really bad. 

+++

1. Small Ball Buys

A. Bought 5 CVI at $29.38; 5 at $28.4


Quote: CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) 

Cost: $288.88

CVI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CVI SEC Filings 

Website: Welcome to CVR Energy 

Owns 2 refineries: 

Sourced: 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

There are 129 oil refineries in the U.S. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 4 have been added in the last 10 years with capacities at over 40,000 barrels per day. 

Owns 37% of CVR Partners LP (UAN)UAN SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers primarily in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. CVR Energy also produces and markets renewable diesel. At a $78 UAN price, I estimate that this stake is worth about $305M. 

Icahn's LLC owns 50.9% of the common stock. SEC Schedule 13D 

Strategic Review Process (Page 24, 10-Q): 

Last DiscussedItem # 2. Sold 50 CVI at $9.29 (4/7/2010 Post)-Item # 4. Bought 50 CVI at $7.75 (1/8/2010 Post) 

Average cost per share: $28.89 (10 Shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.50 (regular)


Special dividend have been paid: $2.5 per share in 2023 (one was for $1.5 per share, see CVR Energy Reports Third Quarter 2023 Results, Announces a Cash Dividend of 50 Cents and a Special Dividend of $1.50

Cash Dividends | CVR Energy, Inc.

Yield (regular dividend only): 6.92%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/10/24 (owned 5 as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Earnings will fluctuate within a wide range. 

Comparisons are to the 2023 first quarter. 

E.P.S. = $.81, down from $1.94

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.04, down from $1.44

GAAP to Non-GAAP E.P.S. 

Free Cash Flow: $121M, down from $213M

Refining Margins: Negative for the Quarter  

Net Sales: $1.9B, down from $2.3B

"For the three months ended March 31, 2024, net sales for the Petroleum Segment was $1.7 billion compared to $2.0 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2023. The decrease in net sales was driven by lower refined product prices resulting from elevated inventory levels and reduced demand during the three months ended March 31, 2024 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2023."

"For the three months ended March 31, 2024, depreciation and amortization expense was $48 million compared to $46 million for the three months ended March 31, 2023."

B. Restarted SAMG - Bought 10 at $15.15

Quote: Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. Cl A

Cost: $151.5

SAMG SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

SAMG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Last DiscussedItem # 2.B. Eliminated SAMG - Sold 10 at $16.65(3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $10). As noted in that post, I had a strong negative reaction to the 2023 4th quarter report. The 2024 first quarter report was a little better so I restarted a position.  

Buy DiscussionItem # 1.G. Started SAMG - Bought 10 at $15.65 (12/2/23 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually), last raised from $.18 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment. 

SAMG Stock Dividend History & Date

Yield at $15.15: 5.0165%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/7/24 (owned as of, sold on 3/8)

Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

GAAP Diluted E.P.S. = $.32, down from $.33

Non-GAAP Diluted E.P.S. = $.33, down from $.35

Consensus Non-GAAP per Schwab at $.40 

AUM: $34.5B, up from $29.9B 


C. Bought 100 RIGL at $.9597



Cost: $95.97

The current price indicates a consensus opinion among the Stock Jocks that Rigel will not survive. While the price indicates close to a 100% probability that this will be the ending, I am not so sure but that is just a hunch. 

Potential catalysts include a successful phase 2a/2b trial of a compound licensed by Rigel to Eli Lilly for rheumatoid arthritis.  


For more information on this license agreement, see pages 12-14 of the  10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

Rigel received an initial payment of $120M.

Lilly started a Phase 2a trial in the 2023 second quarter and preliminary results are expected later this year. The drug is now called LY3871801 (ocadusertib): An Adaptive Phase 2a/2b Study of LY3871801 in Adult Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis-ClinicalTrials.gov

The market is assigning a zero chance of success in the current RIGL price. 



Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy. Very High Risk. Total Loss Possible. 

New Average cost per share: $1.38 (122 shares)

The other 22 shares were bought between $2.57 and $3.27. 

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.A. Bought 10 RIGL at $3.27 and 5 at $3.12-Schwab Taxable Account (5/8/21 Post) I still own those shares held in my Schwab taxable account.  

Last Round-TripItem # 3.A. Sold 100 RIGL at $3.05 (3/31/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $134.99) 

Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.E. Sold 50 RIGL at $3.06 (12/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.05); South Gent's Comment Blog # 4 (sold 150 RIGL at $2.93 that was bought at $2.15; profit = $109.24)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release 

E.P.S. loss of $.05
Cash and Cash Equivalents: $49.550M, down from $56.933M as of 3/31/23
Revenues: $29.5M 
Debt: $60M

Rigel had two FDA approved compounds that it marketed in the first quarter and has recently acquired a third.  

Tavilisse (fostamatinib disodium hexahydrate) was Rigel's first approved product and was internally developed.  Net product sales were reported at $21.1M. This drug is in tablet form and treats "adults with chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) who have had an insufficient response to a previous treatment." 

REZLIDHIA (olutasidenib) is in a capsule form and is used to treat "adult patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with a susceptible isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) mutation as detected by an FDA-approved test." This drug generated only $4.9M in revenues in the first quarter. Commercialization began in December 2022. This drug was licensed from Formo Therapeutics that was acquired by Novo Nordisk in 2022. (see 10-Q at page 17)

 

During the first quarter, "Rigel announced the acquisition of the U.S. rights to GAVRETO® (pralsetinib). GAVRETO is a once daily, small molecule, oral, kinase inhibitor of wild-type RET (rearranged during transfection) and oncogenic RET fusions. GAVRETO is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic RET fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and advanced or metastatic thyroid cancer. The acquisition of this product further expands Rigel's portfolio and leverages Rigel's existing infrastructure in both the institutional and community settings. Rigel expects to complete the transition of the asset and start recognizing product sales in July 2024." 


This asset purchase was expensive for such a small company. It does not appear IMO that the market is assigning any value to this compound given the acquisition and others costs associated with manufacturing and marketing.  


Page 16, 10-Q
That may or may not prove to be a valid assessment based on future developments.  


I would not predict whether the Lilly clinical trial or the newly acquired drugs perform better than current expectations. 


I do believe that the $1 price indicates that the only value being is assigned a continuation of existing product sales near current levels, no meaningful contribution from Graveto after deducting acquisition, manufacturing and marketing costs, and a gradual cash burn of the remaining cash until Tavilisse loses its patent protection or RIGL is unable to pay its outstanding debt when due.  


An alternative "death" scenario is that Rigel may be unable to refinance the debt when the principal payments become due: 

 

Page 22, 10-Q

Page 23, 10-Q

Risk Management: Given the dicey nature of this stock, I will keep my total monetary exposure near my prior realized gains so that I am playing only with the house's money. 

Current Out-of-Pocket Cost for 122 shares: $165.79 

Buyers of this stock now have to be willing to burn whatever capital is used. 

RIGL Realized Gains to Date$253.27

2. Small Ball Sells - Utility Stocks

As a reminder, I am retired and have no earned income. My only "pension" is Social Security. 

I have been successful in keeping my marginal tax rate at 15% or lower so far. Consequently, it makes no difference whether I realize a short or long term capital gain. 

I manage my marginal tax rate through a variety of measures, including owning municipal bonds that pay tax free interest, shifting interest income tax recognition into a following year, buying stocks that pay qualified dividends taxed at 15%, and sometimes selling losers to partially offset  realized trading gains.  

I discuss below eliminating about 60% of my electric utility common stocks.  

Utility stocks are generally unattractive to me based on their P/E ratios, current dividend yields, slow dividend growth histories, and high PEG ratios. It does not take much of a gain for me to eliminate a position and then just wait for another downdraft in prices to restart positions. 

I prefer owning utility senior unsecured bonds or first mortgage bonds that currently have similar or better yields than the common stocks. The bonds promise to pay me a specific sum, the $1,000 par value per bond, when the bond matures (possibly more when there is an early call and the make whole provision requires a premium payment). That is important to me given my capital preservation objective. 

As mentioned above, the tax advantage of qualified dividends compared to interest payments is not an issue for me for as long as I can keep my marginal tax rate at 15% or lower which does require some weighting in dividend paying stocks.  

Utility Stocks Have Jumped. Why It Might Be Time to Sell- Barron's (5/9/24, subscription publication)

A. Eliminated OGE - Sold 25 at $36.35

Quote: OGE Energy Corp

Proceeds: $908.74

OGE is a utility holding company that owns Oklahoma Electric and Gas. 

OGE Key Metrices Page at Reuters

OGE SEC Filings

OGE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

OGE Energy Profile

Profit Snapshot: +$84.19

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.A. Added to OGE - Bought 5 at $32; 5 at $32.2 (2/15/24 Post) 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.D. Eliminated OGE - Sold 2 at $38.29; 5 at $38.87; and 8 at $38.52 (4/14/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $75.3)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.4182 ($1.67 annually), last raised from $.4141 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.  In 2014, the quarterly rate was $.25 per share. 

OGE  Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 4/5/25 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24) 

OGE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q

Net income of $18.6M or $.09 per share

Revenues: $582.6M

"OGE Energy's 2024 earnings guidance remains unchanged and is projected to be $2.12 per average diluted share, within a range of $2.06 to $ 2.18 per average diluted share. The Company forecasts earnings for OG&E, the electric company, of $2.22 per average diluted share and earnings for the holding company of a loss of approximately $0.10 per average diluted share"

The second and third quarter generate the highest E.P.S. numbers for this utility. OGE reported E.P.S. of $.44 in the 2023 second quarter and $1.2 in the third quarter.

Last Bond Offering (5/24): Prospectus for $350M 5.45% SU maturing in 2029. 

B. Eliminated FTS - Sold 25 at $41.43

Quotes: 

USD: Fortis Inc. (FTS)

CAD: Fortis Inc.  (Canada: Toronto)

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Proceeds: $1,035.74

Website: Home

Our Companies

Management Discussion - 2023 SEC Filed Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot: +$68.22

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.B. Added to FTS - Bought 5 at $37.92; 5 at $37.63 (4/19/2024 Post) 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.J. Eliminated FTS - Sold 10 at $45.16 (3/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $61.85)

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.59 per share, last raised from C$.565 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.  

Share Information

Fortis Announces 4.4% Increase in 4th Quarter Dividend Marking 50 Years of Dividend Increases (9/19/23)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and  SEC Filed Financial Statement 

All amounts are in Canadian Dollars. 

Net income of $459M or $.93, up from $.9

Adjusted E.P.S. of $.93, up from $.91 

Revenues: $3.118B, down from $3.319B

I will trade this stock within narrow ranges. I will consider buying back shares at less than $38. 

C. Eliminated AEP - Sold 5 at $91.52

Quote: American Electric Power Co. - Utility Holding Company

Proceeds: $457.63

Operating Utilities include: AEP Texas Inc., Appalachian Power Company, Indiana Michigan Power Company, Ohio Power Company, Public Service Company of Oklahoma and Southwestern Electric Power Company.

AEP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AEP SEC Filings

AEP Profile Page at Reuters

Profit Snapshot = +$73.18

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.D. Added to AEP - Bought 1 at $76.06; 1 at $75,62 (2/23/24 Post)Item # 1.C. Restarted AEP - Bought 1 at $78.41; 1 at $77.38; 1 at $76.98 (1/26/24 Post) 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.A. Eliminated AEP - Sold 3 at $95.5 (4/14/22 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share

AEP Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 5/9/2024 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues by Business Segments: 

In Millions
10-Q at page 18 

2024 Guidance: GAAP E.P.S. at 6.17 to $6.37, Non-GAAP at $5.53 to $5.73 

D. Eliminated D - Sold 28+ at $53.22 and 17+ at $53.16

Quote: Dominion Energy Inc - Utility Holding Company

Proceeds: $2,433.37

The positions were held in my Schwab and Fidelity accounts. 

D | Dominion Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investor Relations | Dominion Energy

SEC Filings

Dominion acquired the utility holding company SCANA in 2019 which was a large acquisition. Dominion Energy Combines With SCANA Corporation - Jan 2, 2019 SCANA's largest operating subsidiary was South Carolina Electric and Gas. 

Profit Snapshots: Net of $151.9 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.C. Bought 2 D at $48.86 (6/10/23 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.6675 per share ($2.67 annually), last raised from $.63 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment, but slashed from $.94 to $.63 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment.  

Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

As previously discussed, the dividend was slashed in response to a discontinuation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project and the sale of Dominion Gas to a Berkshire owned utility company. 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy Completes Acquisition of Majority of Dominion Energy’s Gas Transmission and Storage Business- 11/2/2020 ("The transaction consideration was $8 billion, including approximately $2.7 billion in cash (subject to certain adjustments) and the assumption of approximately $5.3 billion in debt.")

Dominion Energy and Duke Energy Cancel the Atlantic Coast Pipeline - Jul 5, 2020

Last Ex Dividend: 2/29/24 (owned as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 5/31/24
Dividend History: I rate the history as poor. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 


GAAP Net Income: $674M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.78, down from $1.15
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.55, down from $.59

Reaffirmed 2024 operating E.P.S. (non-GAAP) guidance to $2.62-$2.87

Some Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.K. Eliminated D in Fidelity and Vanguard Taxable Accounts - Sold 5 at $80.92; 5 at $81.95 (3/10/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $72.41); Item # 2.D. Eliminated D in Schwab Account- Sold 4 at $80.59 (3/3/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.05); Item # 3.E. Pared D-Sold 2 at $80.23, 2 at $80.24 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.52); Item # 1.D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04 (8/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.97); Item #1.D. Sold 13 D at $78.17 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $51.81)

Bonds: I prefer owning the senior unsecured bonds issued by Dominion's operating subsidiary Virginia Electric Power, all of which matured in 2022, or by its parent Dominion Energy.  

I also own SU bonds originally issued by Dominion Gas that are now obligations of a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, currently rated at Baa1/A- (e.g. Dominion Energy Gas 3.6% SU Maturing on 12/15/24 at FINRA.org)

E. Eliminated AVA - Sold 6 at $38.84


Quote: Avista Corp.  (AVA) - Utility Holding Company

Proceeds: $233.06

AVA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AVA SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $34

Last DiscussedItem # 1.H. Added to AVA - Bought 1 at $32.28 (2/23/24 Post)(discussed the 2023 4th Q. report in that post, SEC Filed Press Release); Item # 2.C. Started AVA - Bought 5 at $33.36 (11/18/23 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 per share, last raised from $.46 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.  

AVA Dividend History | Nasdaq

Next Ex Dividend: 5/22/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):  

EX-9SEC Filed Press Release

E.P.S. $.91, up from $.73

First quarter results positively impacted by extreme cold weather throughout the Pacific Northwest. 

"Avista Corp. is confirming its 2024 earnings guidance with a consolidated range of $2.36 to $2.56 per diluted share."

2023 and 2022 E.P.S. was reported at $2.24 and $2.12 respectively. SEC Filed 2023 Earnings Press Release for teh Q/E 12/31/23 

F. Eliminated WEC - Sold 4 at $85.47

Quote: WEC Energy Group Inc.

Proceeds: $341.88

WEC is a utility holding company whose principal operating utilities are "We Energies, Wisconsin Public Service, Peoples Gas, North Shore Gas, Michigan Gas Utilities, Minnesota Energy Resources and Upper Michigan Energy Resources." 

WEC is a component of the S&P 500. 

WEC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

WEC SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $30

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.F. Restarted WEC - Bought 2 at $78.99; 1 at $77.31; 1 at $76.59 (3/1/24 Post) 

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.D. Eliminated WEC in Two Taxable Accounts - Sold 7 at $96.45 and 3+ at $97.04 (2/3/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $129.44); Item # 1.D. Pared WEC - Sold 1 at $92.27; 1 at $94; 1.058 at $97.18(4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.81) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.835 per share ($3.34 annually), last raised from $.78 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.  

Last Ex Dividend:  5/13/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):

SEC Filed Press Release 

E.P.S. $1.97, up from $1.61

Earnings positively impacted by colder than normal weather.  

WEC reaffirmed its 2024 E.P.S. guidance of $4.8-$4.9.

2023 and 2022 E.P.S. was reported at $4.22 and $4.45 respectively. SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 

SU Bond: Item # 4.I. Bought 1 WEC Energy 4.75% SU Maturing on 1/29/25 at a Total Cost of 98.782  (4/26/24 Post);Bond Page | FINRA.org. I pick up more yield with this bond than the common stock and the bond comes with the promise to pay me more than I paid. The common stock dividend yield at a $85.47 price and an annual dividend of $3.34 per share is 3.91%, rounded up. 

G. Eliminated BKH - Sold 7 at $57.55:  

Quote: Black Hills Corp. (BKH) - A Utility Holding Company

Proceeds: $402.85

BKH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BKH SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

Profit Snapshot: $46.03

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 3.C. Bought 5 BKH at $52.2 (3/28/24 Post)(discussed 2023 4th quarter report, SEC Filed Press Release); Item # 1.D. Restarted BKH - Bought 2 at $47.91 (10/14/23 Post) 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.H. Eliminated BKH in Fidelity Account - Sold 5+ at $70.55  (4/7/22 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.65 per share, last raised from $.625 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment 

BKH Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Net Income: $127.9M 

E.P.S. $1.87, up from $1.73

This quarter will produce the highest E.P.S. due to the weather. In 2023 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, BKH reported E.P.S. of $.35, $.67 and $1.17 respectively.  

Reaffirmed 2024 E.P.S. guidance of $3.8 to $4. E.P.S. for the 2023 was at $3.91, down from $3.97 in 2022. This kind of earnings history requires a lower P/E multiple IMO due to the lack of earnings growth. 

Bonds: I own 6 Black Hills 3.95% SU bonds that mature on 1/15/26. Bond Page | FINRA.org

H. Eliminated EVRG - Sold 5 at $55.89

Quote: Evergy Inc.  (EVRG)

Proceeds: $279.56

EVRG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

EVRG SEC Filings

Evergy Inc Profile | Reuters

Investor Overview | Evergy, Inc.

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 3.B Bought 3 EVRG at $51.44 (3/28/24 Post)(discussed 2023 4th Q. report, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.E. Restarted EVRG - Bought 2 at $47.48 (10/21/23 Post)

Last EliminationItem # 2.C. Eliminated EVRG - Sold 2 at $64.62; 8 at $64.5; 5 at $70.33 (4/14/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $262.91) 

Profit Snapshot: $29.59


Dividend: Quarterly at $.645, last raised from $.6125 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.  

EVRG Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 5/17/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. = $.53, down from $.62

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.54, down from $.59

Reaffirmed 2024 Non-GAAP E.P.S. Guidance at $3.73 to $3.93 

2023 Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $3.54, down from $3.71 in 2022. 

BondsI own 10 Evergy SU bonds that mature on 9/15/24. Bond Page | FINRA.org (rated at Baa2/BBB+) The SU bonds issued by the holding company will have a lower credit rating than first mortgage bonds issued by its operating subsidiaries. I recently discussed buying 2 of the mortgage bonds, maturing on 12/1/25 and issued by an operating subsidiary. Bond Page | FINRA.orgItem # 4.B. Bought 2 Evergy Kansas 3.35% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 12/1/25 at a Total Cost of  96.579(4/26/24 Post) 

3. Other Small Ball Sells

A. Eliminated BRT - Sold 25 at $18.68

Quote: BRT Apartments Corp.  (BRT)

Proceeds: $467.04 

"At March 31, 2024, the Company: (i) wholly owns 21 multi-family properties located in eleven states with an aggregate of 5,420 units and a carrying value of $629,190,000; (ii) has interests, through unconsolidated entities, in eight multi-family properties located in four states with an aggregate of 2,527 units with a carrying value of $32,943,000; and (iii) owns other assets, through consolidated and unconsolidated subsidiaries, with a carrying value of $1,821,000. These 29 multi-family properties are located in 11 states."

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: BRT Apartments Corp.

Properties | BRT Apartments | REIT

BRT SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report 

Management: Internal

Profit Snapshot: $64.17

Last DiscussedItem # 1.C. Added to BRT - Bought 5 at $15.95; 5 at $15.58 (3/1/24 Post)Item # 1.C. Started BRT - Bought 10 at $16.4; 5 at $16.25  (2/15/24 Post)  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.23 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. 

BRT Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filing 

Revenues: $23.403M

E.P.S. ($.17)

FFO per share: $.25, down from $.28

AFFO per share: $.35 down from $.36

Occupancy: 93.4%, down from 94.5%

GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation: 

I do not accept the AFFO number of $.35 per share since there is no adjustment to FFO for routine maintenance expenses.  BRT does provided elsewhere that its share of recurring capital expenditures was $793,000. To arrive at AFFO, I would deduct that number from the AFFO dollar amount of $6.434M resulting in a revised AFFO total of $5.641M which amounts to $.304 AFFO per share.  

B. Pared IP - Sold 2+ at $39.22

Quote: International Paper Co.  (IP) 

Proceeds: $83.15

IP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

IP SEC Filings 

IP 2023 SEC Filed Annual Report 

Sales by Product: 

International Paper Reaches Agreement to Sell Ownership Interest in Ilim Joint Venture This operation was located in Russia. The sale was completed in 2023. U.S. firms are unlikely to return to Russia given the losses suffered by their recent exit that would likely be repeated when and if capital was ever deployed again in that renegade totalitarian nation. 

I sold a few fractional shares purchased with dividends. 

IP rose in response to a rumor that Suzano wanted to acquire IP for $42. I do not believe that will happen. International Paper, Suzano pour cold water on report of $15 billion merger deal | Morningstar

Profit Snapshot: Net of $8.57

I intended to only sell shares that were in profit territory but misidentified one lot. 

Other Recent News: International Paper Announces Agreement to Acquire DS Smith (4/16/24) 

New Average cost per share: $38.55 (26+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/7/24 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.465 per share ($1.86 annually)

IP Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $38.55 AC = 4.82%

Last Ex Dividend = 2/21/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release

E.P.S. = $.16

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.17 

Revenues: $4.619B

Free Cash Flow: $144M

C. Pared WMB - Sold 4 at $40.27- Highest Cost Lot

Quote: Williams Cos (WMB) - Energy Infrastructure 

Proceeds: $161.1

My Video: The importance of funds available for distribution for U S energy infrastructure company stocks - YouTube

WMB SEC Filings Energy infrastructure companies will have a lot of debt. As of 3/31/24, WMB had $24.1B in long term debt. 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

Profit: $65.02

New Average cost per share$23.92   (100+ Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/14/24 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 per share ($1.9 annually), last raised from $.4475 effective for the 2024 first quarter.  

WMB Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at AC of $23.92: 7.94%

Last Ex Dividend: 3/7/24

Next Ex Dividend: 6/7/24

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2 Added 95 WMB at $24.98 and 5 at $23.8 (8/20/21 Post)Item # 3.B. Added 5 WMB at $24.2 (10/8/21 Post)

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.A. Pared WMB - Sold 10 at $36.12 (1/12/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.61); Item # 6.A. Eliminated WMB Duplicate Positions - Sold 10+ at $35.23; 5 at $35.33 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $190.08)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release


GAAP Net Income = $631M

GAAP E.P.S. = $.52, down from $.76

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.59, up from $.56

Funds Available for Distribution: $1.507B, up from $1.445B

FAD per share: $1.23 (dividend $1.507B by 1.22222B diluted shares outstanding)

Revenues: $2.771B

SU Bonds: I currently own 10 SU bonds. 

4 of the 4.55% Maturing on 6/24/24

6 of the 3.9% Maturing on 1/15/25 (see Item # 4.B. below, where I discuss adding two bonds)

I had two 4.5% SU bonds mature on 11/15/23. 

4. Corporate Bonds

A. Bought 2 Quest Diagnostics 3.5% SU Maturing on 3/30/25 at a Total Cost of  98.209

Issuer: Quest Diagnostics Inc.  (DGX) 

DGX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

DGX SEC Filings 

DGX SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 

DGX SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (debt is listed at page F-30)

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.576%

Current Yield at TC: 3.564%

B. Bought 2 Williams Partners 3.9% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total cost of 98.867 - Vanguard Account

Issuer: Williams Partners was acquired by the Williams Cos.  (WMB) 

I own the common stock. 

WMB SEC Filings

WMB SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 3/31/24 

WMB SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (debt is listed at page 125)

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.597%

Current Yield at TC = 3.945%

I now own 6 bonds. 

Last Bond Offering (1/2024): Prospectus 

C. Bought 2 Oneok 3.2% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.013

Issuer: ONEOK Inc. (OKE) 

I have a small ball position in the common stock (9+ shares, average cost per share at $22.11). 

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (debt is listed at page 86)

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.621%

Current Yield at TC:  3.265%

I have 6 Oneok bonds that will mature on 9/1/24. Those are the next OKE bonds to mature.  

Last Bond Offering (9/2023): Prospectus 

Those funds were used to fund the cash portion of Oneok's acquisition of Magellan Midstream Partners. ONEOK Announces Completion of Magellan Midstream Partners Acquisition (9/25/23)

D. Bought 2 Sonoco Products 1.8% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 97.184:   

Issuer:  Sonoco Products Co. (SON) 

Income shift to 2025 with most of the total return realized at maturity.  

SON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SON SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 

2023 Annual Report (Debt is listed at page F-20. This bond is the next one to mature) 

FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.8%

Current Yield at TC = 1.85%

This is another example of transferring income tax recognition to 2025 using a low coupon bond. Most of the return is in the the $56.32 "profit" realized when the bond matures on 2/1/25. I will only recognized one full semiannual interest payment of $18 for the two bond lot which will be paid on 2/1/25. The next semiannual interest payment of $18 will be paid in 2024 but I will only be taxed on about one-half of that amount after deducting the accrued interest paid to the seller.    

E. Bought 1 Elevance Health 2.375% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of  98.019

Issuer: Elevance Health Inc.  (ELV), formerly known as Anthem.  

ELV Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ELV SEC Filings 

ELV SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/A

YTM at Total Cost:  5.41%

Current Yield at TC = 2.423%

F. Bought 2 Eversource 3.15% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.359

Issuer: Eversource Energy (ES) - Utility Holding Company

ES Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ES SEC Filings 

ES SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.665%

Current Yield at TC = 3.177%

I now own 6 bonds. 

I have 4 Eversource bonds maturing on 6/27/24. 

G. Bought 2 Quest Diagnostics 3.5% SU Maturing on 3/20/25 at a Total Cost of 98.288 (IB Account)

See Item # 3.A. above

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.5915%

Current Yield at TC = 3.561%

I now own 4 bonds. 

H. Bought 2 Goldman Sachs BDC 3.75% SU Maturing on 2/10/25 at a Total Cost of $98.528

Issuer: Goldman Sachs BDC Inc. (GSBD) - Externally Managed BDC 

I have a small ball position in the common stock 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to GSBD - Bought 5 at $13.51 (11/4/23 Post) 

GSBD SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Rating: Baa3

YTM at Total Cost: 5.805%

Current yield at TC = 3.806%

I now own 4 bonds. 

5. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction

All purchased in my Schwab account.  

A.  Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 5/13/24 Auction

182 Day Bill

Matures on 11/14/24

Interest: $130.56

Investment Rate: 5.377%

B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 5/13/24 Auction

91 Day Bill

Matures on 8/15/24

Interest: $39.81

Investment Rate: 5.395%

C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 5/15/24 Auction

119 Day Bill

Matures on 9/17/24

Interest: $86.52

Investment Rate: 5.401%

D. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the  5/16/24 Auction

56 Day Bills: 

Mature on 7/17/24

Interest: +$16.4

Investment Rate: 5.387%

I will group the proceeds from this bill and other cash proceeds to buy a 6 month treasury bill in July. 

6. CDs - FDIC Insured

All purchases made in my Schwab account. 

A. Bought 2 Schwab Bank 5.2% CDs Maturing on 5/8/25

Interest paid at maturity.  

Shifting recognition of interest income into 2025.

B. Bought 1 Eagle Bancorp 5.1% CD Maturing on 11/17/25

Interest Paid Monthly

C. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 5.15% CDs Maturing on 11/21/25:

Interest Paid Monthly

For 2025 maturities, most of  my  currently owned treasury bills, treasury notes, corporate bonds and CDs mature in January through June. I am only starting to fill up the last six months. The principal amount of maturities in November 2025 currently stands at $27,000. I generally try to have more than $100,000 in principal amount mature each month. 

D. Bought 2 Goldman Sachs Bank 5.25% CDs Maturing on 5/23/25

Interest paid semiannually. 

7. Exchange Traded Bonds

A. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $21.84

Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD) 

Cost: $109.19

The issuer was acquired by Brookfield Reinsurance Ltd. (BNRE) and now operates as a wholly owned subsidiary of BNRE. It is my understanding that BNRE is not legally obligated to pay this debt obligation but is unlikely to allow a default having paid cash to acquire Argo. Brookfield Reinsurance Completes $1.1 Billion Acquisition of Argo Group 

AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Argo Group International Holdings, Inc. and Its Subsidiaries (Rated at BBB-)

Last DiscussedItem # 5.A. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $21.97 (12/2/23 Post) 

New Average cost per share: $22.6 (120 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/10/24 after add

Yield at New AC  = 7.19%

Next Ex Interest: 5/31/24

Final Prospectus Supplement


Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5%
Placement in Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured Bond
Maturity: 9/15/2042
Issuer Optional Call on or after 4/17/2017 
Interest paid quarterly
Trades flat (whoever owns on the ex interest day receives the entire quarterly payment)
Annual Interest payment on 120 shares: $195

ARGD-AGIIL Realized Gains to Date$653.79

B. Added 5 ELC at $21.6 - Schwab Account

Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066  (ELC)

Cost: $108.02

Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)

I own this exchange traded first mortgage bond in several of my accounts. 

ETR SEC Filings

New Average Cost per share this account: $21.05 (30 Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/14/24 after add
Yield at $21.05: 5.79%

(.04875% coupon x. $25 par = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $21.05 average cost per share = 5.7898% yield 

Next Ex Interest:  5/31/24

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 6.A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $21.3 (1/6/2024 Post)Item # 6.A. Added to ELC  Bought 10 at $21.93 in Vanguard Taxable; 5 at $21.78 and 5 at  $21.6 in Schwab Account  (12/23/23 Post)

Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds

Prospectus

Par Value: $25

Interest Payments: Quarterly

Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets 

My Videos: First Mortgage Bonds Traded Like Stocks - YouTubeFirst Mortgage Bonds $1,000 Par Values - YouTube 

Call protection has expired. 

Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.  

Interest Payments: Quarterly

Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)

Credit Ratings: A2/A

Maximum Position in All Taxable Accounts: 300 shares

I have no concerns about the credit risk. Interest rate risk is substantial given the potentially long maturity. 

C. Added to ELC in Vanguard Taxable Account Bought 10 at $21.78

See Item # 7.B. Above. 

Average cost per share in this account: $21.855 (20 shares) 

Yield at AC this account: 5.5765%

8. Proceeds Paid into my Fidelity Account on 5/15/25

Redemption Proceeds: $11,000

Another $5,000 was received on 5/16 from a maturing T Bill: 

Interest and Dividend Payments (5/15 -Fidelity Account only): 



Taxable Interest: $611.92

Common Stock Dividends:  $25.46

CEF Dividend (paid monthly): $20.45

Preferred Stock Dividends:  $27.97

The National Rural bonds pay monthly and are 1 bond lots except for the one maturing in 2027 which is a 2 bond lot.  

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.     

5 comments:

  1. The ten year TIP will be auctioned on Thursday. I placed a non-competitive order to buy 1 in my Roth IRA.

    This is a reopening of the 10 year TIP that was auctioned last January so the maturity in January 2034 is less than 10 years

    The coupon has already been set at 1.75% by the initial auction, but the real yield will be determined at next Thursday’s auction.

    There will be some accrued interest that will have to be paid since the first semiannual payment will be in July.

    This TIP is trading in the secondary market with a current real yield at 2.124% using the non- inflation adjusted ask price of 96.746, less than the original par value since the real yield is now higher.

    The inflation factor was at 1.01376 which measures the accretion to the principal for CPI since the original issuance, so a very minor adjustment higher to the auction price.

    For anyone buying 1 bond, the auction will provide a slightly better price than a purchase in the secondary market.

    The breakeven inflation rate on the 10 year TIP, as of 5/17/24, was 2.32% and that may change slightly by Thursday. For the 10 year TIP to be a better buy the non-inflation protected 10 year, the average annual CPI until maturity will have to exceed the breakeven inflation rate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The reopening of the 10 year TIP, auctioned originally in January 2024, was priced at an unadjusted price of 96.249477 and an adjusted price of 97.775994 . The adjustment is due to the inflation accretion to the principal amount since the original issuance. The inflation factor was 1.01586 x. 96.249477 = adjusted price. The inflation factor is updated daily.

      Coupon: 1.75% (original auction)
      Real Yield at Discount to par value purchase price = 2.184%
      Adjusted accrued interest: $6.691
      Matures on 1/15/34
      Total Principal Amount Paid: $977.76
      Principal Amount as Accreted (as of 5/23) = $1,015.86 (multiply inflation factor by original principal amount of $1,000)

      I bought 1 in a Roth IRA account.

      Delete
  2. I participated in both the 3 and 6 month treasury bill auctions today (5 of both)

    The 6 month T Bill was sold at a 5.372% investment rate (IR), or slightly above the midpoint of the current federal funds range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The maturity is on 11/21/24.

    That IR is not consistent with any FF rate cut on or before the September Fed meeting. No forecast about what the FF will be as of the November meeting is in that IR.

    As of 11 A.M today, the CME FedWatch tool, which uses the FF futures contracts to assign probabilities, has a 38.2% probability of no rate cut on or before the September meeting and a 61.8% probability that the FF will be cut by at least 25 basis points.

    My best guess is currently that the FF will not be cut before the 11/7/24 meeting. The election is on 11/5. Even that cut is predicated on inflation resuming a downtrend or clear evidence that the economy has weakened sufficiently that a recession forecast is back on the table.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'm incline not to expect a cut either. Inflation would have to be down consistently. There's not enough months for to be up a little down a little the way it's been to convince the fed. So it's I bet not based on data. Right before the election the fed would be more hesitant.

    The only thing contradicting that is Target's bringing prices down. But I think that's a sales tactic because their prices have been too high compared to Walmart.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I have published a new post:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/05/adcpra-apa-eai-icmb-iipr-ip-maa-megi.html

    ReplyDelete