FYI: The NASDAQ website has ceased providing dividend histories for non-Nasdaq listed stocks. Prior posts linked that website for dividend payment history which is no longer available. I am now linking Seeking Alpha for that kind of information.
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Dollar Values of Purchases Discussed in this Post:
Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,423.83
(No stock/stock fund sales for W/E 4/18/25)
Purchases First Mortgage Bonds ($1,000 par values): $7,000 in principal amount
Purchases of Exchange Trade First Mortgage Bonds ($25 PV): $100.5
Purchases of Senior Unsecured Bonds ($1,000 par values): $10,000 in principal amount.
Purchase of Leveraged Preferred Stock CEF: $82.83
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount
Total Bonds and Treasury Bills: $27,100.5
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Treasury Yield Curve April 2025:
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Treasury Bill Purchases at 4/14/25 Auctions -Schwab Account:
91 Day Bill
Principal Amount $5,000
Interest: $53.4
Investment Rate: 4.35%
182 Day Bill
Principal Amount: $5,000
Interest: $102.63
Investment Rate: 4.203%
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Unemployment fears hit worst levels since Covid, Fed survey shows
Fear of unemployment jumps to highest level since the pandemic
Trump tariff deals coming, not recession-Hassett Hassett is Trump's National Economic Council Director. Hassett assured Americans that a U.S. recession in 2025 was impossible, guaranteeing no recession at "100%".
Fact check: Trump falsely claims grocery prices are down; Donald Trump Says Grocery Prices Going Down: What We Know - Newsweek Based on the last BLS report, grocery prices increased by .5% in March compared to February, both seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted, while egg prices surged 5.9%. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2025 M03 Results
Auto Tariffs Lead to Major Forecast Downgrades | S&P Global Based on the republican tariff taxes, S&P revised downward its previous March forecasts for U.S. auto sales, downgrading its 2025 forecast by 700,000 fewer U.S. auto sales, 1.2M fewer sales than previously forecasted in 2026 and 930,000 lower for 2027. The lower forecast is based on the 25% tariff on imports from foreign countries through 2026 before receiving relief. For Canada and Mexico, the forecast is based on a 25% tariff on non-U.S. made parts and materials remaining in effect through 2025, with a reduction to 12.5% in 2026.
Tariffs will slam car sales and production, analysts say - CBS News
If the forecasts about plunging car sales resulting from the republican tariff taxes proves to be anywhere close to the actual numbers, there will be mass layoffs in the U.S. automobile industry. Will Trump and his servile minions in Congress take responsibility?
Canadians canceling plans to travel to U.S. over Trump actions - YouTube
China orders its airlines to stop accepting deliveries of Boeing jets, report says - CBS News; China orders airlines to suspend Boeing jet deliveries amid trade war, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters China sent back 3 Boeing 737-8 MAX to Seattle.
U.S. is unable to replace rare earths supply from China, warns CSIS; The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions; China cuts exports of vital rare earth minerals as trade war with U.S. intensifies - YouTube; Trump tariff gamble faces test as China halts mineral exports | Fox Business
Fed Chair Powell gives starkest warning yet on potential economic consequences from tariffs | CNN Business; Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board; Fed's Powell says tariffs could lead to inflation, economic slowdown - CBS News
Temu cuts U.S. ad spend, drops in App Store rank after Trump tariffs
Chip stocks drop as Nvidia, AMD warn of China export control costs
Trump Says US Doesn't Have to Make a Deal With China - YouTube
White House tariff figure for China causes confusion On April 15, Trump released a statement that some imports from China were subject to 245% tariffs. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Ensures National Security and Economic Resilience Through Section 232 Actions on Processed Critical Minerals and Derivative Products – The White House
Consumers increased their spending in March hoping to beat price increases caused by the republican tariff taxes. Pre-tariffs buying fuels US retail sales; weakness lies ahead | Reuters According to Trump, the U.S. tariff taxes are paid by foreign countries. Fact-checking Trump's claims that tariffs are a "tax on a foreign country" - YouTube
Jeffrey Gundlach on Tariffs and Market Volatility - YouTube
U.S. tariffs will increase prices for U.S. consumers. If Trump is successful in causing companies to replace overseas manufacturing with newly built U.S. factories, the end result will be several thousand new manufacturing jobs and substantial percentage increases in prices for products paid by all consumers, particularly in the low end price ranges (e.g. clothes, shoes, tools). It is an idiotic economic policy.
Trump Admin Halts New York Offshore Wind Project, Orders Review of All Existing Biden-Era Wind Permits Construction had already started on this project designed to provide clean power to about 500,000 homes.
Trump claims that there has been "Big Progress" in negotiating a trade deal with Japan.
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ruled out big concessions, but he also stated that Japan would not be imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. In 2024, the U.S. exported $79.7B in products and imported $148.2B from Japan. Japan Rules Out Big Trump Concessions, Must Understand 'Emotional' Views - Newsweek
Many years ago, I formed an opinion that no statement made by Trump is worthy of belief. The evidence supporting that opinion was and continues to be overwhelming. Everything that has happened since I came to that undeniable conclusion has confirmed the validity of the opinion. Trump is the primary source of Fake News in the world today. TrumpWorld is 100% pure Orwellian.
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Trump BLAMES Zelenskyy For Starting War After Palm Sunday Massacre - YouTube
Our Dear Leader wants to deport U.S. citizens to El Salvador's gulag. Trump says he would "love to" send American "homegrown criminals" to foreign prisons - CBS News; Trump calls for deporting some citizens to El Salvador, testing US law | Reuters
El Salvador's President Bukele says he won't return Kilmar Abrego Garcia to U.S. - CBS News This guy is only doing what our Dear Leader tells him do. Bukele is keeping Garcia in prison, even though he has not been convicted of any crime in the U.S. or in El Salvador.
Polling shows growing number of Republicans identify with the MAGA movement 71% of republicans identify themselves as MAGA. That is about the same number who view our Dear Leader - a Messiah Chosen by God - as honest and a role model for their children.
Trump administration announces freeze in $2.2 billion for Harvard after university rejects request for policy changes | CNN; An ALS researcher at Harvard Medical School lost his funding after the Trump administration’s funding freeze | CNN
Trump has instructed the IRS to rescind Harvard's tax-exempt status for its failure to bend a knee to our Dear Leader's demands and to kiss his ring. Trump threatens Harvard's tax-exempt status after freezing $2bn funding; IRS making plans to rescind Harvard’s tax-exempt status
Federal judge calls Trump's order targeting prominent law firm a 'shocking abuse of power' That is the case without question. It remains to be seen, however, whether any of the 6 Republican Justices will take any action to restrain Trump from flagrantly violating constitutional rights, having already incentivized criminal actions by a President, including criminal actions to stay in power after losing an election, through their immunity ruling. I doubt there are two who will.
If Democrats regain control over the House after the 2026 election, Trump will be impeached again. He has already committed IMO a number of impeachable offenses and will likely commit far more before the midterm elections.
However, there will never be enough votes to convict in the Senate, no matter what he does to deserve a conviction and even if there is an ongoing serious recession caused by republican policies and multiple decisions by the Supreme Court, joined in by two of the Republican Justices, that Trump flagrantly and repeatedly violated multiple constitutional rights including the First Amendment, the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment and the Sixth Amendment.
Unfortunately for the nation, there has never been 5 or 6 Supreme Court Justices so willing to vest Kingly powers in a President and to upend the very reasons for the American Revolution. I do view it as important to quit calling the Republican Justices conservatives.
Trump now has far less restraints on his authoritarianism than King George III, known as the Mad King, did in the 1780s.
America’s Mad King - The Atlantic
The Roman Way to Trash a Republic - The Atlantic
Beyond Ivy League, RFK Jr.'s NIH slashed science funding across states that backed Trump - CBS News
Trump funding freeze upends agricultural research at US universities | Reuters; Farmers Hurt by Funding Freeze Sue Trump Administration - Newsweek
In Trump's America, a radical leftist is someone like Judge Wilkinson of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit who was appointed by President Reagan. Wilkinson believes that the Constitution requires that someone be given Due Process before being seized and deported to a gulag in a foreign country. Conservative judge blasts Trump administration’s ‘shocking’ conduct in Abrego Garcia case - POLITICO
Excerpt from Wilkinson's opinion:
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1. Sample of Common Stock Small Ball Purchases:
A. Added to FNLC - Bought 5 at $22.6; 5 at $22.9-Schwab Account:
Quote: First Bancorp Inc. (FNLC)
Cost $224.45
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $24.32 (35 shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 4/14/25 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Yield at New AC = 5.92%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/8/25 (owned 25 shares as of)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.I. Eliminated FNLC - Sold 10 at $29.56 (11/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $95.06)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added to FNLC - Bought 5 at $23.21 (4/13/25 Post) I discussed the 2024 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release I have nothing further to add here.
B. Restarted MRCC - Bought 5 at $6.96 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Monroe Capital Corp. (MRCC) - Externally Managed BDC
The snapshot includes my last elimination at $8.6.
Cost: $34.79
I classify MRCC as a deservedly hated BDC.
MRCC SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 34 and ends at page 72) Summary of investments starts at page 95.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Eliminated MRCC -Sold 30 at $8.6 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot= $44.59); Item # 3.D. Sold 20 MRCC at $8.05 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.05).
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.G. Added to MRCC - Bought 10 at $7.17 - Schwab Account (12/9/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last cut from $.35 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
MRCC Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $6.96: 14.368%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/25
Net Asset Value Per Share History: Unfavorable
12/31/24: $8.85
9/30/24: $9.18
12/31/23: $9.40
12/31/22: $10.39
12/31/21: $11.51
12/31/20 $11
12/31/19: $12.2
12/31/18: $12.66
12/31/17: $13.77
12/31/16: $14.52
12/31/15: $14.19
12/31/14: $14.05
12/31/13: $13.92
Public Offering Price: $15 per share, proceeds to MRCC at $14.72, Monroe Capital Corporation
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Net investment Income ("NII") per share = $.28
Adjusted NII: $.29
Portfolio Information:
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| Pages 85-85 Annual Report |
Company Estimate of NII Impact from interest rate changes:
![]() |
| Page 110, Annual Report |
A decline in short term rates will negatively impact NII since the floating rate coupons reset at lower levels. The uptrend in short term rates staring in 2022 was a positive while the decline starting in September 2024 is a negative.
C. Added to HTBK - Bought 5 at $8.16 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Heritage Commerce Corp. (HTBK)
Cost: $40.8
HTBK "is the parent company of Heritage Bank of Commerce . . with full-service branches in Danville, Fremont, Gilroy, Hollister, Livermore, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Oakland, Palo Alto, Pleasanton, Redwood City, San Francisco, San Jose, San Mateo, San Rafael, and Walnut Creek."
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 5.C. Added to HTBK - Bought 10 at $9.68 (2/10/25 Post); Item # 1.H. Added to HTBK in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $8.57 - Vanguard Account (12/2/23 Post); Item # 3.B. Added 5 HTBK at $6.9 - Vanguard Account (5/13/23 Post); Item # 2.A. Added 5 HTBK at $7.92 - Vanguard Account (4/22/23 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.C. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Position in HTBK - Sold 70 Shares at $10.7 and Item 3.D. Eliminated Remaining Duplicate Position in HTBK - Sold 78+ at $10.55 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $220.68); Item # 4.J. Pared Duplicate HTBK Position - Sold 5+ at $10.11 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.58)
Average cost per share: $9.04 (52+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share ($.52 annually), last raised from $.12 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. The penny rate was at $.08 in 2015.
HTBK Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC per share: 5.75%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/6/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2023 4th quarter.
Overall, I had a slight negative reaction to this report based on the E.P.S. Y-O-Y decline, the poor ROE, and the increase in the efficiency ratio. The charge off, nonperforming loans to total loans (NPL), nonperforming assets to total assets (NPA), and coverage ratios are favorable.
E.P.S. $.17, down from $.22 (major negative)
NIM: 3.34%, down from 3.41% but up from 3.17% in the 2024 third quarter.
Efficiency Ratio: 65.35%, up from 57.62% (wrong direction)
NPL Ratio: .22%, down from .23%
NPA Ratio: .14%, down from .15%
Both the NPL and NPA ratios are good.
Charge Offs: $262,000 with loans at $3.491+B. (excellent)
Coverage Ratio: 638.49% (allowance for loan losses to nonperforming loans)
ROE: 6.16%, down from 7.96% (both numbers are far below average and the trend is concerning)
Total Capital Ratio: 15.1%
Tangible Book Value per share: $8.41, up from $8.12
HTBK Realized Gains to Date: $256.05
D. Added to UMH - Bought 5 $16.82 - Schwab Account:
Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH)
Cost: $84.1
UMH "operates 139 manufactured home communities containing approximately 26,300 developed homesites, including two communities owned through its joint venture in which the Company has a 40% interest. These communities are located in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia."
"As of December 31, 2024, UMH owned approximately 10,300 rental homes, representing approximately 40% of its developed homesites. The Company engages in the rental of manufactured homes primarily in areas where the communities have existing vacancies. The rental homes produce income from both the home and the site which might otherwise be non-income producing."
"The community manager sells or leases homes to fill vacant sites, collects rent and finance payments, ensures compliance with community regulations, maintains common areas and community facilities and is responsible for the overall appearance of the community. The homeowner is responsible for the maintenance of the home and leased site. As a result, our capital expenditures tend to be less significant relative to multifamily rental apartments. Manufactured home communities produce predictable income streams and provide protection from inflation due to the ability to annually increase rents."
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report at page 4.
Properties: Occupancy at 87.2%
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 6.C. Started UMH - Bought 10 at $17.57 (8/2/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $17.09 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.9 annually), last raised from $.215 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
UMH Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC per share: 5.266%
Next Ex Dividend: 5/15/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filing
Revenue: $53.259M from rental and related income, $8.614M from sales of manufactured homes.
FFO per share: $.24
Net Income to FFO Reconciliation:
2025 Guidance: FFO per share of $.96-$1.04
During 2024, UMH reduced its net debt to market capitalization to 20.8% from 31.3% in 2023.
During 2024, UMH issued 12.5M common shares under its ATM program. The weighted average price was $17.92 with net proceeds of $220.6M after offering expenses.
In my last post, I mentioned restarting a position in UMH.PRD: Item # 3.D. Restarted UMHPRD-Bought 10 at $21.26 (4/13/25 Post) During 2024, UMH sold 49,000 of this preferred stock using its ATM program. The weighted average price was $23.03 generating $4.9M of net proceeds.
E. Restarted WTBA - Bought 5 at $18.4 - Schwab Account:
Snapshot includes last elimination in this account at $23.85 (11/6/24).
Quote: West Bancorp Inc. (WTBA)
Cost: $92
WTBA is a bank holding company that owns West Bank that "has six offices in the Des Moines, Iowa metropolitan area, one office in Coralville, Iowa, and four offices in Minnesota in the cities of Rochester, Owatonna, Mankato and St. Cloud."
As of 12/31/24, there were 16,832,632 shares outstanding. At an $18.4 price, the market capitalization using that share count is about $309.72+M.
Last Elimination: Item # 3.N. Eliminated WTBA - Sold 10 at $23.85 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $71.51) I discussed the 2024 third quarter report in that post.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.D. Restarted WTBA - Bought 10 at $16.7 (7/12/24 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
WTBA Analyst Estimate | MarketWatch - 1 analyst
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report As of January 2025, the bank owns 7 of its full service branch locations (p. 32).
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
WTBA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $18.4: 5.435%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/5/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2023 4th quarter.
E.P.S. = $.42, up from $.27
The improvement in E.P.S. was related to a $2.1M reduction in income tax expense "primarily due to recording an income tax benefit of $1.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 for an energy related investment tax credit associated with the construction of the Company’s new headquarters building."
NIM 1.98%, up from 1.87% (highly unsatisfactory IMO)
Efficiency Ratio: 60.79%, down from 64.66% (positive trend)
NPA Ratio: 0%, down from .01% (Excellent)
Charge offs: Net recovery of $12,000.
ROE: 12.24%
"In December 2024, the Company sold approximately $11.8 million of securities from the available for sale securities portfolio and realized a net loss of $1.2 million. The proceeds from this sale will be reinvested in the loan portfolio and have an estimated earn back period of approximately 2 years."
2024 E.P.S. = $1.42, down from $1.44 in 2023.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Eliminated WTBA - Sold 20+ at $20.52 (1/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $86.46); Item # 7.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in WTBA - Sold 25+ at $17.72 (11/11/23 Post)(profit snapshot $49.83); Item 1.K. Eliminated WTBA in Vanguard Account-Sold 5 at $21.4 and 20 at $21.2 (2/6/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $116.92); Item # 2.F. Pared WTBA-Sold .313 at $27.42 (5/28/21 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 WTBA at $23.12 (4/29/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,146.24)
Some profitable small trades were not discussed.
WTBA Realized Gains to Date: $1,532.54
F. Added 5 FPF at $16.57 - Schwab Account:
Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview - A Leveraged CEF
Cost: $82.83
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
This fund owns primarily equity preferred stocks that pay dividends and some exchange traded bonds. These securities will perform poorly when investors have increased concerns about credit risks and when interest rates are rising. The significant price decline starting in April was caused by both.
I discussed this leveraged CEF in a YouTube video: Closed End Preferred Stock Funds - YouTube
Sponsor's website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF)
Last Discussed: Item # 7. Eliminated Duplicate Position in FPF - Sold 83+ at $18.15 (1/22/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $235.99). I mentioned that I would consider eliminating the position held in my Schwab account when and if the price rose to over $19.
Leveraged: Yes at 34.9% as of 2/28/25 - Fact Sheet.pdf
New Average cost per share: $18.07 (155+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1375 per share ($1.65 annually)
FPF Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
ROC Supported 2024 Dividends: $.501147
Yield at New AC = 9.13%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/1/25
Data Date of 4/11/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $18.02
Closing Market Price: $16.68
Discount: -7.44%
Average 3 Year Discount: -8.06%
Sourced: FPF - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
G. Started SWK - Bought 5 at $57.39:
Quote: Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK)
Cost: $286.95
52 Week High: $110.88
% Decline from $110.88 to $57.37 purchase price = 48.26%
This is my first purchase of the common stock. I researched the company in connection with the purchase of a SU bond discussed in Item # 2.H. below.
The stock met my criteria for current stock purchases that include a reasonable P/E, a dividend yield of over 4%, and a decline of more than 20% from its 52 week.
SWK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SWK SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Business Segments:
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| Page 4 Annual Report |
I own a number of SWK tools primarily the Black & Decker brands.
1 Year Chart: Major Bear Market - Ugly Chart
There is a major down gap in the chart occurring in October 2024. When I see something like that, I want to find out what caused it. I suspected before looking that the cause was the third quarter earnings report which was the case. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the 2024 Third Quarter Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $1.22 versus the consensus at $1.05 according to Schwab, but there was a slight lowering of the top end adjusted E.P.S. guidance for 2024. The S&P analyst referred to the revenue number as "underwhelming" but viewed positively the 290 basis point in adjusted gross margins due to lower supply chain related costs.
Other useful pieces of information contained in the chart include a signal that whatever ails the company has not been resolved according to the consensus opinion reflected in the stock price continuing to trend down; the prior support near 80 back in July 2024 was breached with heavy volume this month; a double top formation was created in October 2024; and a possible bottom formation may be happening now near $57, though I doubt it will hold based on the negative impacts flowing from the republican tariff taxes discussed below.
My use of technical analysis is not based on book learning, though I do own 1 book on the subject. The information that I draw from charts is simply based on my experience looking at them for a very long time.
2024 Divestiture: Stanley Black & Decker Completes Sale of Attachment Tools Business to Epiroc AB ($760M in cash)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.82 per share ($3.28 annually), last raised from $.81 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment. The rate was at $.52 per share in the second quarter of 2015.
SWK Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $57.39: 5.715%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Revenues: $3.7B
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.28
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.49
Consensus at $1.27 per Schwab
2025 Guidance: "Excluding new tariffs, the Company's planning assumption is for 2025 E.P.S. to be $4.05 (+/- $.65) on a GAAP basis and $5.25 (+/- $.50) on and adjusted basis and free cash flow of $750 million (+/- $100 million)" (Emphasis added)
I do not have information sufficient to evaluate the full potential negative impact of tariffs other than to note that the impact will certainly be a negative. The negative impacts will be subject to some mitigation efforts. I am assuming those efforts would include ramping up U.S. production as much as possible, redirecting some products manufactured in China to non-U.S. markets that have no or low tariff regimes, and/or sourcing more imports into the U.S. from factories located in other foreign countries.
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
S&P (2/27/25): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $105
Argus (3/7/25): Hold when the price was at $86.89, the date of the report. The analyst reduced the 2025 E.P.S. to $4.95 from $5.45 "amid uncertainty about tariffs and the macro environment". The estimate for 2026 was initiated at $6.1.
The analyst noted that $1B of the $6.8B adjusted cost of sales in 2024 were from products manufactured in China with another $1.25B from Mexico. Before the tariff war started, the company claimed that a 10% tariff on imports from China would initially have a $90 to $100 million gross impact that it could mitigate over about 2-3 months to $10-$20M. Revenue was reported at $15.4B in 2024.
Other analyst actions (reports are unavailable to me):
On 4/11, Barclays reduced its PT to $70 from $86 and kept its equal weight rating.
On 4/2/25, Goldman Sachs reduced its PT to $84 from $93 and maintained its neutral rating.
On 3/27/25, Deutsche Bank reduced its PT to $92 from $94 and maintained its hold rating.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase is limited to 1 to 5 share lots with the purchase price required to be at the lowest price in the chain. Caution is warranted IMO due to the negative impacts that will flow from the republican tariff taxes which will include lower consumer demand caused by the increases in prices.
H. Added to ALEX - Bought 3 at $15.9:
Quote: Alexander & Baldwin Inc. (U.S.: NYSE) - An Equity REIT
Cost: $47.7
The REIT's property portfolio is focused in Hawaii.. The company owns 21 retail centers, 14 industrial assets, four office properties and over 142 acres of ground leases. The commercial properties have approximately 4 million rentable square feet and had a leased occupancy of 94.6% as of 12/31/24. ALEX 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report at p.1.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $18.33 (35+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.9 annually), last raised from $.2225 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
ALEX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 4.91%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24):
Revenue: $62.454M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.17
FFO per share: $.30
AFFO per share: $.19
Reconciliation:
The primary adjustment to FFO was to deduct $7.358M in maintenance expenses. Another downward adjustment is to remove the non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. AFFO in this calculation is equivalent to funds available for distribution. (Remember that I have zero training in accounting).
I. Added to CODI - Bought 3 at $16.72; 5 at $16.57:
Quote: Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)
Cost: $133.02
This company resembles a hedge fund that buys small companies, hopefully improves and expands operations and then will consider selling the company for a profit.
Examples of company purchases and sales:
Announces Sale of Ergobaby (12/30/24)
Compass Diversified-Backed Altor Solutions Completes Acquisition of Lifoam Industries (10/2/24)
Sale of Crosman Air Gun Business (4/30/24)
Completes Sale of Marucci Sports (11/15/23)("CODI expects to record a pre-tax gain of approximately $225 million to $245 million from the sale")
I recently discussed buying an equity preferred stock issued by this company. Item # 3.B. Added 5 CODIPRA at $20.3 (4/13/25 Post)
CODI SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report The businesses are described at pages 7-9 and 18-57.
Organizational Structure:
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| Page 10, Annual Report |
Dispositions 2007 to date:
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| Page 79, Annual Report |
Compass Diversified Holdings | Investor Relations
"On September 1, 2021, Compass Diversified (the “Trust”) elected to be treated as an association taxable as a corporation for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Stockholders will no longer be allocated pass-through income from the Trust and the Trust will no longer issue Schedule K-1s."
Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Added to CODI - Bought 5 at $18.64 (11/11/23 Post)
New average cost per share: $17.83 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
CODI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $17.83: 5.61%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/17/25
Last Earnings Report (12/31/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Net Sales: $620.3M, up 13.8%
Adjusted Earnings: $46.6M
Adjusted earnings adds back a non-cash amortization expense of $26.341M:
Gains from selling a business are a deduction in this calculation.
Revenues by Company:
The two most important companies in terms of revenues are 5.11 and Lugano. I would view the republican tariff taxes to be a negative but do not have sufficient information to form an opinion on the dollar value. I did note in the 10-K that 5.11 has no manufacturing facilities and sources production from third party vendors, page 25.
J. Added 4 PEO at $19.9:
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $79.6
I thought that the selloff in energy stocks was somewhat overdone.
This CEF was formed just prior to the 1929 stock market crash. It shares office space and personnel with the CEF Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX), which I also own.
10 Largest Holdings as of 12/31/24
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added 5 PEO at $22.1 (9/19/24 Post)
Last Eliminations: Item # 2.B. Eliminated PEO-Sold 15 at $23.94 (4/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.72); Item # 1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $853.25)
Average cost per share: $21.97 (20 shares)
2024 Dividends: "The Board . . . adopted a Managed Distribution Policy (“MDP”) to enhance long-term shareholder value by paying level quarterly distributions at a committed rate of 8% of average net asset value (“NAV”) per year. Distributions in accordance with the MDP began in the third quarter of 2024."
Last Ex Dividend: 1/27/25 at $.53 per share.
PEO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Data Date of 4/14/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $22.38
Closing Market Price: $19.86
Discount: -11.26%
Average 3 year discount: -14.31
Sourced: PEO-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
Leveraged: Barely at .7%
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06 (8/10/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $205.94); Item # 3. Sold 100 PEO at $26.19 (11/15/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $144.29).
K. Added to TRST - Bought 2 at $27.25:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp. (TRST)
Cost: $54.5
"At year-end 2024, the Bank operated 154 automatic teller machines and 136 banking offices in Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Montgomery, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren, Washington, and Westchester counties of New York, Brevard, Charlotte, Flagler, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Martin, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, and Volusia counties in Florida, Bennington County in Vermont, Berkshire County in Massachusetts and Bergen County in New Jersey. The largest part of such business consists of accepting deposits and making loans and investments. Trustco Bank also lends in Essex and Fulton counties of New York, Essex, Hudson, Morris, and Passaic counties of New Jersey, Collier, Lee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, St. Johns, St. Lucie, and Sumter counties of Florida, where it has no branch locations."
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
TRST 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
Last Discussed Item # 3.G. Eliminated TRST - Sold 5 at $37.21 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $56.05)-Item # 2.F. Restarted TRST - Bought 5 at $26.6 5 (6/20/24 Post)
Average cost per share: $31.09 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
TRST Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at AC: 4.63%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/7/25
Last Earnings Report (12/31/24 Post):
Comparisons are to the 2023 4th quarter unless otherwise noted.
E.P.S. = $.59, up from $.52 in the 2023 4th quarter but down from $.68 in the 2024 third quarter.
NIM: 2.6%, unchanged
Efficiency Ratio: 65.03%, down from 66.92%
NPL Ratio: .37%, up from .35%
Coverage Ratio: 270%
ROE: 6.7% (poor IMO)
TRST Realized Gains to Date: $1,559.59
L. Restarted WHR in Schwab Account- Bought 1 at $77.4:
History this Account: All 1 share purchases, with each subsequent purchase at the lowest price in the chain. I will follow that process again with a lower starting price.
Quote: Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)
Home, Kitchen & Laundry Appliances & Products | Whirlpool Whirlpool is a large appliance company whose brands include Whirlpool, Maytag, JennAir, Amana and KitchenAid.
WHR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Elimination in this Account: Item # 4.B. Eliminated WHR in Schwab Account - Sold 3 at $120.1 (1/15/25 Post)(Profit snapshot = $85.12)
Investment Categories: Bond substitute/Contrarian Value
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.75 per share ($7 annually)
WHR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $77.4 = 9.04%
Next Ex Dividend: 5/16/25
Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Pared WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $132.5 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $124.67) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
M. Added 6 SBSI at $26.62:
Quote: Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI)
Cost: $159.72
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
SBSI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Restarted SBSI - Bought 5 at $31.45; 5 at $30.98 (2/10/25 Post) I discussed the 2024 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Elimination: Item # 3.F. Eliminated SBSI - Sold 5 at $37.51 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.21)
New Average cost per share: $29.4 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 in the 2024 first quarter. The penny rate was at $.23 in the 2015 first quarter.
SBSI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $29.4: 4.898%
Yield at $26.62: 5.41%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/20/2025
SBSI Realized Gains to Date: $646.14
Largest Gains - Over $90: Item # 2.F. Eliminated SBSI-Sold 25 at $30.03 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 3 Sold 107+ SBSI at $20.5 (7/18/11 Post)(profit snapshots = $208.69)
N. Added to RMT - Bought 10 at $7.85:
Quote: Royce Micro-Cap Trust Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $78.5
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report The RMT discussion starts at page 24. As of 12/31/24, the unrealized net gain was at $123.581+M.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Added 5 RMT at $7.69 (11/4/23 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 2.A. Eliminated RMT in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $10.36 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.26)
Average cost per share: $7.91 (53+ shares)
Dividend: Variable and paid quarterly.
RMT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last 4 Dividends: $.76 per share
Yield Using $.76 and $7.91 TC = 9.608%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/13/25
Data Date of 4/17/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $8.92
Closing Market Price: $7.9
Discount: -11.43%
Average 3 year discount: -11.59%
Sourced: RMT - CEF Connect
Largest Annual Gain: $2,269.01 in 2014
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| 759+ shares |
Some other sell discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated RMT-Sold 113+ at $8.7 (2/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot +$79.95); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 RMT at $8.73 (1/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot =$23.25); Item # 3.A. Sold 274+ RMT at $8.9 - Schwab Taxable (8/3/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.41); Item 3.A. Sold 276+ RMT at $8.4 (5/17/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $61.77); Item # 4. Sold 200 RMT in RI at $9.3 (10/22/12)(profit snapshot = $84.37)
Leveraged: Slightly at .43%
O. Added to HR - Bought 1 at $15.65; 1 at $14.65:
Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (HR) - A REIT that primarily owns medical office buildings.
Cost: $30.3
HR 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
Properties as of 12/31/24:
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| P. 1, Annual Report (footnotes omitted) |
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
For this purchase, I am violating the first law of holes.
I have a negative opinion of management based on a long duration failure to meaningfully increase cash available for distribution, as previously discussed many times here, but the properties owned by the REIT are more recession resistant than other property sectors.
Recent Material Merger: Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) and Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) Announce Closing of Merger - Healthcare Realty (7/20/22); Healthcare Realty and Healthcare Trust of America Enter Into $18 Billion Strategic Combination (2/28/22)
HR acquired HTA but HTA was the company that survived, a reverse merger. After the merger was consummated, the name of the surviving company was change to Healthcare Realty and the symbol changed from HTA to HR.
Prior to the closing, HTA paid its shareholders a special dividend of $4.82 per share. I owned 50 HTA shares and received a $241 cash payment, most of the payment was classified as ROC as I recall that reduced my tax cost basis
Most of my current HR position in the Fidelity account originated from owning HTA shares.
This combination, which made no sense IMO, was the brainchild of hedge fund manager Paul Singer. Elliott Investment Management urges REIT Healthcare Trust of America to explore sale | Reuters (10/11/21)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Bought 3 HR at $16.24 - Fidelity Account (1/22/25) I discussed some reasons for my negative opinion about this company in that post.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HR - Sold 14+ at $18.10 - Schwab Account (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot $56.05).
New average cost per share: $17.41 (105+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually)
HR Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Effective for the 2025 first quarter dividend payment, I change my dividend option from payment in cash to reinvestment. This is based in part of the valuation at or near the current price and as a method to randomly average down.
The dividend was not covered by funds available for distribution during the 4th quarter.
2024 3rd Quarter FAD per share: $.294
2024 Dividend Tax Treatment:
60.95% sourced from ROC that is not taxed as a dividend but does reduce the tax cost basis. ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis are common among equity REIT stocks since the dividends will generally exceed GAAP net income but most are below, with HR being exception, cash available for distribution.
The point is that my unrealized loss is actually higher using my original cost numbers.
If ROC adjustments to the original tax cost basis continue, which I expect, it may be possible to avoid all or some of an unrealized gain when the cost basis is stepped up after my date of death to the applicable market value, assuming that is still allowed and the stepped up cost basis is higher than the existing adjusted tax cost basis.
Yield at $17.41: 7.12%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/3/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Revenues: $309.766M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.31)
FFO per share: $.60
Normalized FFO per share: $.40
FAD per share: $.2875 (dividend at $.31)
The company does not specifically provide a FAD per share number. I derived the FAD per share number by dividing $100.081M by the weighted average diluted shares of 351.56M.
GAAP to FAD Reconciliation:
Some Legacy HTA Sell Discussions: Item # 6 Pared HTA - Sold 20 at $31.8 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $198.37); Item # 1.H. Sold 5 HTA at $31.61; 5 at $32.89 (11/11/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $96.97); (Item # 3.B. Pared HTA - Sold 10 at $28.17; 10 at $29.17 (7/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.58); Item # 1 Sold 2 HTA at $26.7 (5/2/20 Post)(Profit Snapshot = $7.81); Item # 2.D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51 (2/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.02); Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20)(profit snapshot = $44.34); Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.2);Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $124.1)
Largest Legacy HR Realized Gain: Item # 2 Sold 50 HR at $26.33 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/19/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $103.27)
Combined HR and HTA Realized Gains: $956.03
SU Bonds: I own 15 senior unsecured bonds issued by Healthcare Realty or Healthcare Trust of America, now combined into HR as discussed above. The bonds are rated BBB/Baa2.
I have 3 bonds maturing on 5/1/25; 4 maturing on 8/1/26; 4 maturing on 7/1/27; and 4 maturing on 1/15/28 (all bought in 2025).
Last SU Purchase Discussions: Item #2.B. Bought 2 Healthcare Trust of America 3.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/28 at a Total Cost of 96.467 (4/15/25 Post); Item # 2.E. Bought 2 Healthcare Trust of America 3.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/28 at a Total Cost of 96.048 (3/18/25 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Healthcare Realty 3.75% SU Maturing on 7/1/27 at a Total Cost of 97.287 (2/10/25 Post)
2. Corporate Bonds:
First Mortgage Bonds:
A. Bought 1 Entergy Arkansas 5.15% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 1/15/23 at a Total Cost of 99.918 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
2024 ETR SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report Energy Arkansas financial information starts at page 318: 2024 revenues at $2.4602B, net income at $324.766M (page 340)
FM Prospectus (1/23) The make whole provision can be found at pages S-5 and S-6.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.162%
Current Yield at TC: 5.154%
Last FM Bond Offering (5/24): Prospectus
B. Added to ELC - Bought 5 at $20.1 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (ELC)
Interest Rate Risk: HIGH and asymmetric in favor of the issuer
Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy (ETR)
ETR 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report 2024 operating revenues at $5.144+B with net income at $887.645M, page 367
Last Discussed: Item # 2.O. Added 5 ELC at $21.6 - Schwab Account (4/4/25 Post); Item # 2.G. Bought 5 ELC at $20.75 in Schwab Account (3/18/25 Post)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds {I do not include in this post several categories of exchange traded bonds including trust preferred, synthetic floaters, SU notes tied to the performance of an index, and trust certificates, see Trust Certificates; Synthetic Floaters, Trust Preferred Securities, Item # 1 Principal Protected Notes, Item # 2 Principal Protected Notes. While those securities are exchange traded bonds, they have qualities that separate them from the baby bond category that are simply bonds traded like stocks with no quirkiness)
Coupon: 4.875% paid on a $25 par value
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat: (no accrued interest is payable to the seller, whoever owns on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment)
First Mortgage Bond, with lien attaching to substantially all assets.
Credit Ratings: A2/A
New Average cost per share this account: $21.07 (60 shares)
Yield at New AC: 5.784%
Calculation: .04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $21.07 average cost per share = .057843%
Next Ex Interest Date: 5/30/25
C. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5% FM Maturing on 6/1/2033 at a Total Cost of 98.094 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR).
ETR SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report Entergy Mississippi financial information starts at page 372.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.284%
Current Yield at TC = 5.097%
I now own 8 bonds including 3 in Roth IRA accounts.
Interest rate risk: I would describe the interest rate risk as meaningful but acceptable to me. If there was any possibility that I would be forced to sell this bond at a loss, I would not buy it.
When the bond can be held to maturity, which is the case for all that I own, the interest rate risk IMO is simply the risk of lost opportunity, a form of interest risk where I lose the opportunity to buy bonds with higher yields using funds tied up in lower yielding ones.
D. Bought 1 Entergy Texas 5.25% FM Maturing on 4/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.579:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
ETR 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report Entergy Texas 2025 revenue was reported at $2.05+B with net income at $291.55M, page 435.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A
YTM at TC: 5.434%
Current Yield at TC = 5.326%
E. Bought 2 PPL Electric 5% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 5/15/33 at a Total Cost of 99.22 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Operating utility of the holding company
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.118%
Current Yield at TC = 5.039%
F. Bought 2 Evergy Metro 4.95% Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 4/15/33 at a Total Cost of 98.22 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Formerly known as Kansas City Power & Light, an Operating utility wholly owned by the utility holding company Evergy Inc. (EVRG)
EVRG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
EVRG 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report Evergy Metro financial information starts at page 84. 2024 revenues reported at $1.893.7B with net income of $324.5M.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.225%
Current Yield at TC: 5.04%
Senior Unsecured Corporate Bonds
G. Bought 2 Steel Dynamics 5% SU Maturing on 12/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.873:
Issuer: Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)
"Steel Dynamics is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metals recyclers in North America, based on estimated annual steelmaking and metals recycling capability, with facilities located throughout the United States, and in Mexico. Steel Dynamics produces steel products, including hot roll, cold roll, and coated sheet steel, structural steel beams and shapes, rail, engineered special-bar-quality steel, cold finished steel, merchant bar products, specialty steel sections, and steel joists and deck."
I believe that this company benefits from the 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.
STLD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
STLD SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.076%
Current Yield at TC = 5.006%
H. Bought 2 Stanley, Black & Decker 4.25% SU Maturing on 11/15/28 at a Total Cost of 97.216:
Issuer: Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK)
SWK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/A-
The YTM is more consistent with a Baa3 rating IMO.
YTM at Total Cost: 5.11%
Current Yield at TC = 4.372%
I own 2 SWK SU bonds that mature on 3/1/26. Bond Page | FINRA.org
I. Bought 2 Oneok 4% SU Maturing on 7/13/27 at a Total Cost of 98.381 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: ONEOK Inc. (OKE) - Energy Infrastructure
I have a small ball position in the common stock.
Last OKE Discussion: Item # 2.J. Sold 1 OKE at $111.71 - Schwab Account (11/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.79)
Last OKE Buy Discussions: Item # 1.L. Added to OKE-Bought 1 at $24.9 (10/24/20 Post); Item # 1.G. Started OKE in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $27.77 (6/13/20 Post)
OKE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.767%
Current Yield at TC = 4.066%
J. Bought 2 Nextera 5.25% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at a Total Cost of 99.162:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) who guarantees the notes:
Prospectus (1/30/24)
NEE is a component of the S&P 500. Financial Strength – NextEra Energy, Inc.
NEE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
NEE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24 (Net income of $1.203B)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.369%
Current Yield at TC = 5.294%
K. Bought 2 Westrock 4% SU Maturing on 2/15/28 at a Total Cost of 98.073 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: WestRock was acquired by Smurfit Kappa Group PLC. The combined company is now known as Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW)
Website: Smurfit Westrock | A global leader in sustainable packaging
SW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SW SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
SW SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
Fitch Rates Smurfit Westrock's Proposed Senior Unsecured Debt at 'BBB'
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.715%
Current Yield at TC: 4.079%
I now own 4 bonds.
3. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account on 4/15/25:
Cash flow into this account occurs almost every day, but will be concentrated on the 1st, 15th and last day of each month. Interest and dividends received into this account on the 16th and 17th totalled $328.25. My investment portfolio is designed to generate a constant stream of income and redemption proceeds.
Corporate Bond Redemptions: $8,000
Corporate Bond Interest: $591.75
(my owned municipal bonds pay interest semiannually on the first day of a month)
Common Stock Dividends: $117.4
Preferred Stock Dividends: +$35.74
CEF Dividends: $3
The National Rural Utilities bonds pay interest monthly.
EPR.PRC is a currently busted REIT convertible equity preferred stock. In my Fidelity account, I reduced my position to 10 shares from 20:
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Restarted EPRPRC - Bought 10 at $19.31 (3/8/24 Post)
I also pared my Schwab account position:
I am still having some corporate bonds called early. This is the most recent example in my Fidelity account:
Unlike my other brokers, Fidelity will show a credit that will occur on the next business day (4/21 in this example) on a Saturday, Sunday or holiday.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.



























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For whatever it may be worth, Trump claimed last Thursday that a trade deal with the EU would be concluded within the 90 day tariff pause that Trump announced earlier this month. He also claimed that a trade deal could be concluded with China as soon as next month.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/17/trump-trade-deal-tariffs-eu-china-meloni/83138856007/
If those representations are truthful and actually happen, there will be a positive reaction in the stock market.
I lived in a China as a Senior Fulbright professor for several years.. I doubt if Xi, or the Chinese people for that matter, will forgive or forget the degrading language used by Trump and his administration, not to speak of the deplorable treatment accorded many of their nationals working in the US, or the shoddy treatment accorded Chinese students, and visitors. The attempt to isolate China, while attacking their other trading partners, does not auger a good outcome. There is a serious concern in China with miànzi (面子) or, loosely, "face;" and nobody in the Trump administration seems to have the least apprehension of what the attempt to denigrate China while competing with them might mean for the future
ReplyDelete....
I read yesterday an article published by Shang-Jin Wei, a former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, who is currently a professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
DeleteHe mentions "face" as one of the obstacles to a trade deal with China but uses it in a different context:
"A second reason concerns “face” (as in “saving face”), which is important in Chinese culture. The Chinese may suspect that Trump looks down on foreign leaders who come to beg for lower tariffs . . .U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants to persuade the Chinese with the following logic: You should capitulate, as you are in a weaker position than the U.S., because the U.S. can tariff more of your goods than vice versa. But this argument may have backfired, by reminding Chinese of the British position during the 1839-42 Opium War."
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
ReplyDelete5,245.75 -67.00 -1.26%
Last Updated: Apr 21, 2025 at 7:09 a.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/es00
The pre-market decline in the S&P 500 is probably related to China warning other nations about colluding with the U.S. to restrict trade with China.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/20/business/china-warns-countries-us-trade-war-intl-hnk/index.html
This warning is most likely predicated on the Trump Administration actually making those demands in trade negotiations. This certainly does not sound like Trump will soon close a trade deal with China as he represented to Americans last Thursday.
An economist, Torsten Slok, noted correctly that most small businesses, who import products or components from foreign manufacturers, do not have the capital to pay the dramatic increases in tariffs. Slok also points out that it has historically taken 18 months to negotiate a trade deal with 1 country and the Trump Administration is trying to negotiate over 100 in 90 days. Unless there is a change soon, Slok places the odds of a 2025 recession in the U.S. at 90%. This article is worth reading:
https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/
Another important point to keep in mind is that none of the foreign governments trust Trump. He has already violated the USMCA agreement that he negotiated and signed near the end of his first term and that violation occur soon after becoming President again.
Two informative interviews available on YouTube are informative on the tariff issue:
Douglas Irwin - Recognized as an authoritative source on the historical impacts of tariffs:
"Trade Historian Douglas Irwin on Trump's Unprecedented Tariff Shock"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVcmUiyHA0s&t=436s
Larry Summers - Economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary:
"Trump’s tariffs will harm the US and global economy, Lawrence H. Summers says"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omI17XhaI3A
Trump thinks that a Fed rate cut will cure the problems that he has created with his tariff war, which is not the case, and has stepped up his attacks against Powell for refusing to bend a knee to him.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/trump-powell-attacks-interest-rates-fed.html
S&P 500 Index
5,115.21 -167.49 -3.17%
Last Updated: Apr 21, 2025 at 3:11 p.m. EDT
With this kind of decline, a normal reaction would be a decline in the 10 year treasury yield. The yield is rising in another ominous sign:
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
4.415 +0.085%
Last Updated: Apr 21, 2025 3:12 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home_markets
And another signal that is troubling is the continued decline in the USD value as measured by the USD Dollar Index:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
98.27 -1.11 -1.11%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=search_symbol
A decline in DXY indicates that the USD is falling in value.
Taken together, I would interpret those directional movements as indicating that many investors are losing confidence in the U.S. due to Trump's actions.
Whatever cuts that Trump, Musk and the DOGE boys are actually making, compared to what they claim to have done, could easily be wiped out by interest rate increases on the $36.2+ trillion in federal government debt.
The FED is in a box. Republican policies will increase inflation and slow growth. That stagflation scenario creates tension in the Fed dual mandate.
I am still anticipating that the FED will cut the FF rate by .25% in June even if inflation is ticking higher and will likely cut again before year end as the economy slows to a crawl with 1 or 2 negative real GDP quarters. That approach could result in stagflation as the FED stokes inflation with a monetary easing notwithstanding inflation moving higher and the easing does almost nothing to generate growth that is being restrained by less consumer spending, tariffs, mass deportations, layoffs, increased consumer fears about losing their jobs, and cuts in federal government spending when fiscal stimulus is needed.
The CME FedWatch tool currently has the FF range at 100 basis points lower than now on or before the December 2025 meeting as the more probable than not scenario:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
This is an interesting stock market. The wild up and down swings are difficult to trade and are consistent with what I call an Unstable VIX Pattern.
ReplyDeleteI explained that pattern in a 2014 SeekingAlpha Post that I republished here on 3/3/25 since I believed then that the VIX would soon form what I refer to as a Trigger Event that signals the start of this Unstable Pattern.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/03/my-seekingalpha-post-published-on.html
I found a few stocks to buy earlier in the morning and have resisted selling some positions that are higher now than in mid-February when the S&P 500 hit an all time high.
The small ball buys were in regional bank stocks and 1 equity REIT that was down in price.
I discussed in a YT video published earlier today why I thought Trump would not fire Powell before his term ends as Fed Chairman, and possibly investors have come to the same conclusion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMB7km2E8Vk&t=329s
The fear that Trump might fire Powell and other Fed members was palpable yesterday and was the prime reason for the decline. Trump has already removed Inspector Generals and Board members of other independent agencies to consolidate his power and to end checks and balances that previously existed on his power. Trump would like to install his loyalists as Fed voting members but realizes that the blowback may harm his power rather than enhance it.
The purpose of Trump attacks on the FED are probably designed to convince his followers that Powell is responsible for what is happening. Trump will never accept responsibility for the bad consequences of his own actions.
Another reason for the rally today was the representation made by the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that "there will be a de-escalation" in the trade war with China in the "very near future".
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/bessent-trump-tariffs-china-deescalate.html
What does de-escalation mean? If the U.S. went from 145% to 85%, that lower tariff tax will still have the same embargo type impact as staying at 145% (more for some products).
Is Trump on board? Based on news reports, Bessent did not claim that he was speaking for Trump but sounded like he was making an observation that the current tariff levels amounted to an economic decoupling of China and the U.S. except for products that are currently exempt from the retaliatory tariffs which is the case.
One way for Bessent to lose credibility quickly is to make that kind of statement and then have nothing change "in the very near future". Once Bessent loses credibility by providing a false assurance on a major issue, the big money crowd and sophisticated investors will not believe what he is saying thereafter and will simply assume that he is trying to manipulate them which I view to be the more probable than not purpose of his comments.
Bessent also said that negotiations with China are likely to be a "slog". And he did even indicate that negotiations had begun.
I will believe the de-escalation of the trade war with China when both China and the U.S. confirm it. Until then, I will assume that it will not happen in the very near future.
I discussed in a YT video published last night why I expected yesterday's stock market rally to continue:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YpYMBEOCpU&t=57s
Trump stated yesterday that he had no intention of firing Powell. He also had a softer tone about trade negotiations with China.
Investors interpreted his remarks about China as endorsing Bessent's claim that the trade war with China would de-escalate in the very near future.
It remains unclear what is meant by de-escalation.
Will both sides reduce tariff rates to say 20% and then start negotiations? That would be greeted warmly by investors. Bessent stated that negotiations had not yet started and he expected a tough slog.
Or does de-escalation mean a lowering of the current U.S. and China tariff rates that would still have the same embargo type impact on trade for most products or simply exempting from the U.S. retaliatory tariffs more products?
My read is that Trump was not signaling a significant change but expressing the same opinion that the tariffs will force China into a trade agreement acceptable to Trump, and there is no publicly available information that suggests China is going to bend a knee.
If China did not agree to a trade deal, Trump has stated in the past that the China tariffs would be lowered from current levels, and that is how I interpret his statement that tariffs will be lowered from 145% but would be some number above 0%.
My interpretation is based in part on this statement made by him yesterday:
“Ultimately, they have to make a deal, because otherwise they're not going to be able to deal in the United States, and we want them involved, but they have to, and other countries have to make a deal, and if they don't make a deal, we'll set the deal"
I mentioned in the video that I might start selling stocks again into today's rally. I will try to restrain that impulse, arguing with myself that maybe better prices will come later when and if the VIX returns to below 20 movement even if that proves to be temporary. I call that movement after a Trigger Event, which ends the Stable Vix Pattern and ushers into existence the more volatile and risky Unstable Vix Pattern, the "Recovery Period".
For those trying to decide whether the comments made by Trump and Bessent yesterday about China are B.S. or the real deal, this video which I watched earlier today provides some useful information:
ReplyDelete"Trump’s Trade War Lies Explained in 10 Minutes and 39 Seconds"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhHKQEMSDrU&t=425s