Economy:
Investors so far are reacting positively to the PCE inflation report for May:
Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Month-to-Month PCE Inflation: No increase
Core PCE Month-to-Month: +.1%
Annual Core PCE: +2.6%, down from 2.8%
The first quarter real GDP growth was revised up to 1.4% from 1.3%. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, First Quarter 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
The Census Bureau reported that new single family home sales in May wer at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, 11.3% below April 2024 and 16.5% below the May 2023 estimate:
Housing affordability deteriorates as prices, mortgage rates stay high This is an obvious problem that becomes worse as home prices continue their upward spiral, interest rates remain high, home insurance increase at a faster percentage rate than inflation, and property taxes continue to rise. I mentioned in a 6/15/24 comment that my home insurance increased 35% compared to what I paid in 2023. I have never made a claim since I built my house in 1982.
Fed Governor Bowman says she's still open to raising rates if inflation doesn't improve
Existing Home prices hit record high in May as sales stall The median price was $419,800, up 5.8% from May 2023. Existing-Home Sales Edged Lower by 0.7% in May as Median Sales Price Reached Record High of $419,300
Nobel prize-winning economists warn Trump would 'reignite' inflation Trump's proposal to increase tariffs will be inflationary, increasing the cost of imported goods that will be passed on to consumers and providing a umbrella for domestic manufacturers to increase their prices on competing products. (My YT videos discussing Trump's tariff proposals: Trump Proposal to Eliminate Individual Income Taxes and to Replace Revenues Lost with Higher Tariffs - YouTube; Trump Trade Proposals - YouTube; see also Trump Income Tax and Tariff Proposals: Details & Analysis
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in the Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $20,000 in principal amount
Treasury Note Purchased at Auction: $2,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $5,000 in principal amount
Individual Common Stocks: +$2,081.38 (no sales)
Stock CEFs: +$425.69 (restarted DPG and PEO)
Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: +$2,507.07
Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stock: +C$1,023
U.S. REIT Equity Preferred Stock: +$62.79
2024 Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$25,629.38
Treasury Yield Curve June 2024: Slight downtrend in intermediate and long term yields.
Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation rate as of 6/27/24: 2.26%
The breakeven inflation rate for the 10 year TIP was at 2.44% as of 6/3/24.
The breakeven inflation rate is the market's estimate of the average annual CPI over the term of the TIP. So the average annual inflation rate inflation rate over the next ten years has fallen slightly this month.
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My Reaction to Last Night's Horror Movie: GOD. HELP US.
For a voter who knows a lot about the issues, and I would classify myself in that category, presidential debates are not informative on the issues but are simply performative. Biden failed last night in his performance. I agree with Ian Bremmer's assessment. Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden | Quick Take - YouTube; Ian Bremmer - Wikipedia
To the extent issues are discussed, there will be an abundance of false claims in Presidential "debates" that are a form of mind pollution for an informed voter.
Fact checking the CNN presidential debate | CNN Politics;
FactChecking the Biden-Trump Debate - FactCheck.org
That observation is in hyper drive when Trump is a candidate. He is incapable of providing accurate information and was evasive on a number of questions.
Biden was hoarse and maybe that was from a cold or it could have been from talking too much in preparation for the debate. Claiming to have a cold is an excuse that is not going to fly among voters.
Trump's chances of winning has risen in response to Biden reinforcing and enhancing the already major concerns about his age.
There needs to be a constitutional amendment that requires a Presidential candidate to be no more than 75 or 76 on election day. If Trump wins, and I view that as more likely than not as of today, the republicans will not support that amendment since they would view it as a criticism about his age and mental capabilities.
There has been one Constitutional Amendment that has been passed to date that limits who can run for President. I am referring to the 22nd Amendment | U.S. Constitution Anyone elected twice to the Presidency can not run again. If someone fills an unexpired Presidential term lasting to more than two years, that person can only run in one more election. This Amendment was passed after FDR won a 4th consecutive term in the 1944 election. Truman became President after FDR passed on 4/12/1945. He was only 63 years old. Congress approved this Amendment in March 1947 and the ratification occurred in February 1951.
I do not foresee Biden voluntarily withdrawing from the race. Maybe Obama and Jill Biden can convince him to withdraw. One ticket that could beat Trump was suggested by Steve Schmidt and consists of two Dem governors: Wes Moore (MD) and Gretchen Whitmer (MI)
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Trump and His Party:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
The Republican Supreme Court Justices have not yet decided whether to create a Presidential immunity from criminal prosecution and whether to rewrite a criminal statute relating to the obstruction of an official proceeding to protect Trump and several of his supporters who have been convicted or charged of the same crime.
What Kind of ‘Psycho’ Calls Dead Americans ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’? - The Atlantic Republicans either approve or remain silent and unconcerned about these kind of statements made by Trump. He is revealing his soul with them.
The Washington Post reported last Wednesday that Trump was leading in 5 of the 7 battleground states. Biden was leading only in Wisconsin by less than 1% and Pennsylvania was in a tie. Who is ahead in 2024 presidential polls right now? - Washington Post Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are most win states for Biden. Georgia, Nevada and Arizona have 33 electoral votes. If I only subtracted all of those from Biden's 2020 total of 306, Biden would have 273 electoral votes when 270 are needed to win. North Carolina is a possible swing state with 15 electoral votes.
It is clear that more than 75 million Americans will vote for Trump and that is has now at least a 50/50 chance of winning the election.
CNN reporter confronts GOP nominee, Michelle Morrow, who called for Obama to be executed - YouTube Morrow is the GOP's candidate to lead the North Carolina school system. I discussed her and the republican candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, in a prior YT video. I am predicting that Biden will win North Carolina due to the republican down ballot candidates - YouTube (noting that she wanted to execute Obama before a pay-per-view audience and her support for QAnon, but Trump is currently leading by 4%); Mark Robinson Republican Candidate for the N C Governor and Likely Primary Winner - YouTube Both represent the devolution of Trump's party into something unrecognizable as a conservative party.
Aileen Cannon Is Who Critics Feared She Was - The Atlantic
Hear Trump mention losing the 2020 election, then backtrack, in newly released audio - YouTube
'Purely imaginative': Bolton reacts to Trump's comments on Hezbollah - YouTube Trump blamed Biden for the Hamas attack on 10/7 which, according to Donald would not have happened in a million years if he was President.
'He listens to no one': Longtime Trump employee weighs in on recent unhinged remarks - YouTube
My Videos: Paul Ryan: Trump is Unfit to be President - YouTube; Trump and the Movement Toward Authoritarianism - YouTube
Trump admires Hitler, is infatuated with Putin, former staff claim in new book | The Times of Israel
Fact check: Trump says George Washington ‘probably didn’t’ own slaves. Washington did Trump is both ignorant and unwilling to learn. The article includes fact checks on other false claims made by Trump at his recent rally. (My Video: Trump's Personality - YouTube)
Trump spiritual advisor admits to sexually abusing 12-year-old girl - YouTube
Ex-Trump doctor Ronny Jackson may have broke federal law by spending campaign funds on a dining club | Salon.com; Reps. Ronny Jackson, Wesley Hunt probed on campaign cash for club dues
Donald Trump campaign claims former president was 'tortured' in jail That is a false statement of course. Trump routinely inflames his followers with false statements that are likely to result in violence. Trump cranks up false, inflammatory messages to rake in campaign cash - The Washington Post
Alex Jones’ court trustee plans to shut down his notorious conspiracy outlet Infowars Trump praised Jones reputation. Donald Trump praises Alex Jones’ ‘amazing’ reputation; Alex Jones and Donald Trump: How the Candidate Echoed the Conspiracy Theorist on the Campaign Trail | FRONTLINE
Jones claimed that the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, where 26 people lost their lives including 20 children aged 6 and 7, was a false flag operation staged with actors and part of conspiracy. Alex Jones files for bankruptcy following $1.5 billion Sandy Hook verdicts
Arizona GOP official threatens to lynch Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer; MAGA activist Shelby Bush says she would ‘lynch’ Arizona GOP election official Stephen Richer - YouTube She was cheered by the Arizona republicans.
In a 6/21/24 Supreme Court decision called Department of State v. MUÑOZ , the Supreme Court Justice Amy Barrett wrote the majority opinion for the Republican Justices that at least suggests that the republican Justices will overrule the gay marriage decision, Obergefell v. Hodges, when given the opportunity. Analysis: Why Justice Sotomayor’s rare reference to Dobbs may be a warning from liberals ("The constitutional question was whether a US citizen has a fundamental liberty interest in their noncitizen spouse being admitted to the United States. A lower federal court, the California-based 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals, had ruled that a constitutionally protected liberty interest existed in such situations". Barrett dismissed that issue pointing to the absence of a “history and tradition” of any right to bring a spouse into the country. The lack of a history and tradition allowing for abortions was the essential reason for overruling Roe.
Long before the Dobbs decision, I predicted that the addition of the 3 Justices appointed by Trump would inevitably lead to a reversal of Roe v. Wade, notwithstanding those Justices claiming during their confirmation hearing that Roe was well settled law. Those were not honest statements IMO when their intent was to overrule Roe when given the opportunity. Those Justices were deliberately selected for that very purpose .
The Hodges decision was 5 to 4, so it was already on thin ice and will probably be overruled when the republican Justices are given the opportunity to do so.
Justice Ginsburg was in the majority and she was replaced by Barrett who authored the Munoz decision. The author of the majority decision in Hodges was the republican Justice Anthony Kennedy who was replaced by Bret Kavanaugh who joined the Barrett opinion in Munoz without reservation. So it is only a question of time before Hodges is overruled by the republican Justices. The republican Justices Roberts, Alito and Thomas were part of the minority in the Hodges gay marriage case.
The same reasoning used by Barrett could also be the foundation for overruling the 1967 Loving v. Virginia case that found a state law preventing an interracial marriage like the one that Justice Thomas has, was unconstitutional. That kind of statute is called an anti-miscegenation law that prevents marriage and even intimate relationships between members of different races.
Nightmare fuel: Trump talks about taking off his clothes - YouTube
Sky News hosts react to Donald Trump's rant about sharks - YouTube
Trump stolen documents found among Diet Coke, Christmas ornaments, new photos reveal - YouTube
Irrespective of how the Republican Supreme Court Justices rule on Trump's claim that a President has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution after leaving office, those Justices have in effect given him blanket immunity by delaying the trial until after the election which, if Trump wins, will never come to trial since the special prosecutor will be fired at Trump's direction. If Trump had been convicted of multiple felonies after a trial in that case, that would not cause Trump voters to change their minds IMO.
The Republican Justices have been weakening the nation's corruption laws. The latest decision was to throw out a conviction against a mayor who allegedly accepted a $13,000 bribe. Republican Supreme Court Justices says state officials can engage in a little corruption as a treat - Vox; Anti-corruption laws: Republican Justices side with mayor accused of accepting a bribe; 23-108 Snyder v. United States (6/26/2024).pdf Kavanaugh wrote the opinion that was joined only the the Republican Justices.
Justice Jackson wrote the dissent which starts off as follows:
My Videos: Republican Supreme Court Justices In Effect Legalized Bribery of State Officials - YouTube; The January 6th Republican Attack on the Capitol During a Joint Session of Congress - YouTube
The unadorned truth about Donald Trump - The Atlantic
Oklahoma schools are required to teach the Bible, state superintendent says - The Washington Post
Marine Le Pen has tried to distance herself from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen who founded the National Front party and has made statements that align with Nazism, referring, for example, to the Nazi gas chambers as a mere detail, to the deportation of Jews to concentration camp where they were murdered as a "trivial matter", and to a Jewish singer with the phrase "next time we'll do a whole oven batch!". He has also praised the Nazi collaborator Philippe Pétain - Wikipedia.
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Putin and His Orwellian State:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Putin is Europe's 21st century Hitler. Putin is the new Hitler | Diane Francis - YouTube
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Sergei Shoigu, the former Russian defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the Russian army chief of staff. Both are charged with committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu and Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov | International Criminal Court Russians routinely commit war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Ballerina Goes on Trial for Treason in Russia - YouTube Her crime in Putin's Orwellian state was to donate $51.8 to a Ukrainian charity while living in the U.S.
ATACMS Destroys Russia's NIP-16 Space Tracking and Communication Center in Vitino, Crimea - YouTube
Cowering Russian troops watch as tank is obliterated in pinpoint Ukrainian drone strike - YouTube
Russian Ammo Storage Site with 3,000 Artillery Shells Hit by Drones in Voronezh, Russia - YouTube
T-90M Destroyed in a Warehouse - Warehouse Burns Down - YouTube
Why does Russia need North Korean weapons? Seoul warns Russia over North Korea-supplied weapons-Euronews;
US Monitoring Potential Deployment of N. Korean Troops in Ukraine
Russian Casualties in Ukraine Mount, in a Brutal Style of Fighting - The New York Times More than 1,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded each day during May. Putin is recruiting about 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers each month. Without any regard to its soldiers, Russia sends them in wave attacks. The soldiers are cut down through drone, artillery and machine gun fire. The current British estimate is that over 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.
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1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added to CPXPRE:CA - Bought 50 at C$20.46 (IB C$1 commission):
Quote: CPX-PE.TO
This was a slight average up, implemented to generate more income in my Interactive Brokers account.
Total Cost = C$1,023
Issuer: Capital Power Corp. - A Canadian utility with operations in Canada and the U.S. Operations - Capital Power
Last Discussed: Item #5.B. Restarted CPXPRE:CA - Bought 50 at C$19.6 (9/23/24 Post)
Coupon: 6.631%
New average cost per share: C$20.04
Dividends: Quarterly at $.4144+ per share and cumulative.
Yield at New AC = 8.27%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/24
Preferred Share Information - Capital Power
Series 5, CPX.PR.E - Capital Power
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 3.15% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond, resets every five years.
Last Reset: June 2023 remains in effect for five years.
Issuer has the option to call at par value on the reset date.
Previous CPXPRE:CA Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Eliminated CPXPRE - Sold Remaining 100 Shares at C$24.18 (7/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$843); Item # 1.A. Sold 50 of 150 CPXPRE:CA at C$22.01(5/28/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$217)
CPXPRE Realized Gains to Date: C$1,060
Gains from Other Previously Owned Capital Power Reset Preferred Stocks: C$895
Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)-Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPPRA a C$10.2 - Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha That one reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five-year Canadian bond. The reset coupon was only 2.621%. I have no current interest in that preferred stock.
2. Small Ball Buys:
A. Restarted WEC - Bought 5 at $78:
The preceding snapshot includes my last elimination in this account where I sold 4 shares last May at $85.47.
Quote: WEC Energy Group Inc.
Cost: $390
WEC is a utility holding company whose principal operating utilities are "We Energies, Wisconsin Public Service, Peoples Gas, North Shore Gas, Michigan Gas Utilities, Minnesota Energy Resources and Upper Michigan Energy Resources."
WEC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
WEC is a component of the S&P 500.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.F. Eliminated WEC - Sold 4 at $85.47 ,(5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $30) I discussed the 2024 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. $1.97, up from $1.61, reaffirmed 2024 guidance of $4.8-$4.9.)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Restarted WEC - Bought 2 at $78.99; 1 at $77.31; 1 at $76.59 (3/1/24 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.835 per share ($3.34 annually), last raised from $.78 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Dividend History: Solid for a Utility
Yield at $78: 4.28%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/12/24
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Eliminated WEC in Two Taxable Accounts - Sold 7 at $96.45 and 3+ at $97.04 (2/3/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $129.44); Item # 1.D. Pared WEC - Sold 1 at $92.27; 1 at $94; 1.058 at $97.18(4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.81)
Maximum Position: 10 shares. I am not likely to own more than 10 shares. Using the midpoint of the 2024 E.P.S. guidance, which is $4.85, the P/E at that E.P.S. number at a $78 price is 16, which is not okay IMO. The 2023 and 2022 E.P.S. number were reported at $4.22 and $4.45 respectively. If the $4.85 number is hit this year, then I view the stock as fairly value at $78 but not at a much higher price.
SU Bond: Item # 4.I. Bought 1 WEC Energy 4.75% SU Maturing on 1/29/25 at a Total Cost of 98.782 (4/26/24 Post);Bond Page | FINRA.org. I picked up more yield with this bond than the common stock and the bond comes with the promise to pay me more than I paid.
B. Added to NWN - Bought 5 at $35.2:
Quote: Northwest Natural Holding Co. (NWN)
Cost: $176
NWN is a utility that distributes natural gas to customers located in Washington and Oregon. The company also owns a number of small water utility businesses.
Recent acquisitions have been water/wastewater facilities. Northwest Natural Holdings-NW Natural Water Announces Acquisition of Puttman Infrastructure and Infrastructure Capital Holdings (6/5/24)(" NW Natural Water provides water distribution and wastewater services to communities throughout the Pacific Northwest, Texas and Arizona. NW Natural Water currently serves over 180,000 people through approximately 74,000 meters and provide operation and maintenance services to an additional 20,000 connections."); Northwest Natural Holdings - NW Natural Water Expands Presence in Arizona and Oregon(2/6/24)
NWN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Northwest Natural Holdings - Investor Relations
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Started NWN-Bought 5 at $35.75 (3/1/24 Post) I discussed the 2023 4th quarter in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
New Average cost per share: $35.47 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4875 ($1.95 annually), last from $.485 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
Northwest Natural Holdings-Dividend History
NWN has increased its dividend for 68 consecutive years.
Yield at $34.47: 5.5%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/29/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
E.P.S. = $1.69, down from $2.10 in the 2023 first quarter.
The decline "reflected higher pension expense, depreciation from continued investment in our system, and interest expense for our natural gas utility."
Reaffirmed 2024 E.P.S. guidance of $2.20-$2.4 and long term E.P.S. growth of 4% to 6% through 2027.
NWN was mentioned in this February 2024 article published in Barron's, a subscription publication. 7 Overlooked Utility Stocks With Dividends and Growth Prospects - Barron's
C. Added to MDT - Bought 5 at $81.04; 5 at $79.95; 5 at $79- Schwab Account:
Quote: Medtronic PLC (MDT)
Cost: $1,199.95
I have a few simple reasons for buying a few MDT shares. (1) the company is a leader in medical devices and the baby boomers will be good customers; (2) MDT is recession resistant; (3) there is a reasonable dividend yield at my average cost per share and a good history of dividend growth; and (4) the P/E is reasonable using 2025 F/Y adjusted E.P.S. guidance of $5.45 to $5.5. The 2024 F/Y ended on 4/26/24.
Investor Relations | Medtronic - Overview
For anyone unfamiliar about MDT's products, I would suggest reading pages 3-8 of the SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending 4/26/24.
New Average cost per share: $80.45 (30 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/27/24 after last 5 share add |
50 shares is my limit.
Using the forward 2025 F/Y the midpoint adjusted E.P.S. guidance of $5.475 and my current AC per share of $80.45, the P/E is 14.694.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 per share ($2.8 annually)
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Dividend Growth History:
Yield at $80.45 = 3.48%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/28/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 4/26/24): This is the 4th fiscal quarter.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Revenues: $8.589B
Revenues by product segment:
GAAP E.P.S. $.49
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.46
Note the add back of a $439M charge relating to exiting the ventilator product "which primarily includes long-lived intangible asset impairments and inventory write-downs. In addition, other charges primarily consist of changes in fair value of contingent consideration."
Non-GAAP E.P.S. Adding Currency Impact on Earnings: $1.53
Analyst Reports (Available to Schwab Customers):
Morningstar (5/23/24): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of $112 and a narrow moat.
S&P (5/23/24): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $97.
Argus (4/11/24): Buy with a $110 price target. The analyst has a $5.50 adjusted E.P.S. estimate for the 2025 F/Y.
D. Restarted DPG - Bought 20 at $9.9 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc. Overview
Cost: $198.09
DPG is a leveraged CEF that primarily owns utility and energy infrastructure stocks.
Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc. - SEC filed semiannual report for the period ending 4/30/24
Sponsor's website: Duff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc.
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Last Elimination: Item # 2.A. Eliminated DPG - Sold $26 at $10 (5/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $27.75)
Dividend: Monthly at $.07 per share ($.84 annually). Starting in July 2024, DPG switched from a quarterly dividend to a monthly one. I bought this lot shortly before the last quarterly dividend of $.21 per share.
The dividend is supported by ROC.
Yield at $9.9: 8.48%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/24 for $.21 per share (owned as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 7/31/24 (at the new monthly rate of $.07)
Data Date of Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.2
Closing Price: $9.87
Discount: -11.86%
Sourced: DPG - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" tab)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $8.83 (2/15/24 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $7.99 (10/14/23 Post); Item # 1.B. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $9.13 (9/16/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Restarted DPG - Bought 10 at $9.68 (8/12/23 Post) All of those shares have been sold.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1. Eliminated DPG in Schwab Account - Sold 390+ at $14.57 (6/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $132.63); Item # 1.F. Eliminated DPG in Fidelity taxable account-Sold 21+ at $13.03 (3/20/21 Post); Item # 1.K. Pared DPG-Sold 5 at $11.82 (1/16/21 Post); Item # 2.D. Sold 15 DPG at $11.62 (12/12/20 Post)(contains snapshots of prior DPG trades = +$887.88)
Price Weakness: The quarterly dividend was slashed to $.21 from $.35 effective for the 2023 third quarter. That caused the share price to go from a premium to net asset value to a discount.
Quote: Brookline Bancorp (BKRL) - Bank Holding Company
Cost: $41.2
Brookline Bancorp, Inc.-Corporate Profile
"Brookline Bancorp, Inc., a bank holding company with $11.5 billion in assets and branch locations in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and the Lower Hudson Valley of New York State, is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts and operates as the holding company for Brookline Bank, Bank Rhode Island, and PCSB Bank."
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 3.F. Pared BKRL - Sold 13+ at $10.16 (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = +$10.11)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added 5 BRKL at $8.23 (11/11/2023 Post)
5 Year Chart - My Impression: Bear market pattern starting in late 2022 with signs of stabilization near the current price level.
New average cost per share = $8.33 (23+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually), last raised from $.13 effective for the 2022 4th quarter payment.
BRKL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $8.33 AC = 6.48%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/9/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24)
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
Comparisons are to the 2023 first quarter.
E.P.S. = $.16, up from $.09, but down from $.26 reported in both the 2023 3rd and 4th quarters.
NIM: 3.06%, down 3.36%
Efficiency Ratio: 69.44% (too high)
NPL Ratio: .42%, up from .31%
NPA Ratio: .37%, up from .25%
Charge off ratio: .36%, up from .02%
The preceding metrics are going in the wrong direction. While the NPL, NPA and Charge-off ratios were up compared to the 2023 first quarter, the numbers are not yet concerning to me.
Coverage Ratio: 120%
Tangible Book Value per share: $10.47, up from $10.08. I generally favor buying a profitable bank at less than tangible book value per share.
Investment Securities: My grade is a C+, almost a B-.
F. Restarted PEO - Bought 10 at $22.76:
The snapshot includes my last elimination where I sold 15 shares at $23.94.
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview
Cost: $227.6
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
This CEF was founded shortly before the 1929 stock market crash. PEO shares office space and personnel with another CEF, Adams Diversified Equity Fund (ADX).
Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/24:
Holdings as of 3/31/24: SEC Filing (cost of stock investments then at $476.056+M with the value at $709.146+M).
Last Eliminations: Item # 2.B. Eliminated PEO - Sold 15 at $23.94 (4/12/24 Post)( profit snapshot = $50.72); Item # 1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $853.25)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 6.A. Bought 10 PEO at $20.86; 5 at $19.96 (1/20/24 Post) Those lots have been sold.
Dividends: Paid Quarterly
PEO will pay a relatively small dividend for the first 3 quarters ($.10 per share) and then will add a capital gains distribution in the 4th quarter along with whatever remains of the ordinary dividend income.
Data Date of 6/21/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $26.6
Closing Market Price: $22.75
Discount: -14.47%
Average 3 Year Discount: 14.77%
Sourced: PEO - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" tab)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06 (8/10/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $205.94); Item # 3. Sold 100 PEO at $26.19 (11/15/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $144.29).
There was a collapse in E&P stocks during the pandemic period. Some of the stocks in this sector have not yet fully recovered from the decline.
I have sold most of my Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY) shares bought during that period but have kept a few:
 |
| Price as of 6/21/24 close/ 11+ shares with an AC at $8.42 |
FENY has a lower expense ratio than PEO but will have a significantly lower dividend yield due to PEO's harvesting of capital gains.
FENY expense ratio: .084%
Last 4 FENY Dividends: No capital distributions.
I do view FENY as an alternative to PEO when there is less focus on current income generation.
E. Restarted FTS - Bought 5 at $38.49:
The preceding snapshot includes my last elimination where I sold 25 shares at $41.43.
Quotes:
USDs: Fortis Inc. (FTS) - Utility Holding Company with operations primarily in the U.S. and Canada
CADs: Fortis Inc. (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Cost: $192.43
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Eliminated FTS - Sold 25 at $41.43 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.22) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 and SEC Filed Financial Statement
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to FTS - Bought 5 at $37.92; 5 at $37.63 (4/19/2024 Post) Those lots have been sold.
Website: Home
Management Discussion - 2023 SEC Filed Annual Report
Other Sell Discussion: Item # 2.J. Eliminated FTS - Sold 10 at $45.16 (3/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $61.85)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.59 per share, last raised from C$.565 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
Fortis Announces 4.4% Increase in 4th Quarter Dividend Marking 50 Years of Dividend Increases (9/19/23)
I also own 200 shares of a reset equity preferred stock, Fortis Inc. (FTS-PM.TO), issued by Fortis. The average cost per share is C$16.01. The coupon resets for 5 years in December at a 2.48% spread to the five year Canadian government bond. Par value is C$25.
Discussed at Item # 5.A. Added to FTSPRM:CA - Bought 50 at C$17.73 (3/6/23 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$12.4 (5/23/20 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 FTS.PRM at C$16.28 (3/14/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 50 FTSPRM:CA at C$17.55 (11/23/2019 Post)
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| FTSPRM:CA Intraday Price 6/26/24 |
F. Restarted CVBF - Bought 5 at $16.36:
Quote: CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF) - A Bank Holding Company
Cost: $81.8
CVBF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Elimination: Item # 6.D. Eliminated CVBF - Sold 18+ at $19.14 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $75.39). In that post, I gave this bank a D+ in managing its owned securities portfolio. I am not changing that grade.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I. Added to CVBF - Bought 3 at $14.81 (4/29/23 Post) That lot has been sold.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share, last raised from $.19 effective for the 2022 4th quarter payment.
CVBF Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $16.36: 4.89%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 4/2/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2023 first quarter.
The E.P.S. and NIM numbers are negative factors.
E.P.S.: $.35, down from $.42
NIM: 3.1%, down from 3.45%
Tangible Book Value per share: $9.36, up from $8.34.
The remaining financial metrics described below are positive factors.
Efficiency Ratio: 47.22%
NPL Ratio: .16%
NPA Ratio: .09%
Coverage Ratio: 572.85%
Charge off ratio: .046%
Total Capital Ratio: 15.38%
Owned Security Portfolio: Note the unrealized loss as a percentage of cost and the heavy reliance on mortgage backed securities, a security that needed to be sold in 2021:
Yield on investment securities: 2.64% (pathetic)
3. Treasury Bill Purchases at Auction:
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 6/24/24 Auction- Schwab and Fidelity Accounts:
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Matures on 12/26/24
182 Day Bill
Interest: $259.86
Investment Rate: 5.35%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 6/24/24 Auction:
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Matures on 9/26/24
91 Day Bill
Interest: 132.33
Investment Rate: 5.379%
C. Bought 2 Treasury Notes at the 6/25/24 Auction:
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Matures on 6/30/26
Coupon: 4.625%
High Yield = 4.706%
Original Issue Discount: $3.06 (difference between par value and price for 2 $1,000 par value notes classified as interest and increases the coupon yield slightly, like a YTM calculation for a note bought at a discount to par value)
4. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Western Midstream Partners LP 3.95% SU Maturing on 6/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.361:
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Issuer: Western Midstream Partners L.P. (WES)
Since the semiannual interest payment was made on June 1, I did not have to pay much accrued interest to the seller. There will be two more semiannual payments before this bond matures. Tax accounting for a bond interest payment made by a limited partnership does not involve a K-1, but is treated just like an interest payment from a regular corporation.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 5.76%
Current Yield at TC = 4.016%
B. Bought 2 Omega Healthcare 5.25% SU Maturing on 1/15/2026 at a Total Cost of 99.164:
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Issuer: Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (OHI) - A REIT
OHI owns nursing homes and senior living facilities. Operator defaults are a significant risk in those REIT sectors. I will generally limit my risk to just 2 bonds, maturing within 2 years, but may temporarily go up to 4 bonds which I have done with this purchase. I have 2 OHI bonds that mature on 1/15/25 and do not expect a problem in receiving par value at maturity.
OHI SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 (FAD was reported at $.65 per share with the quarterly common share dividend at $.67, which is a negative for bond owners)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 5.916%
Current Yield at TC = 5.29%
I no longer own the common stock but have successfully traded it so far. (realized gain in OHI at $1,575.81, snapshot at Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy)
As mentioned above, I own 2 Omega Healthcare 4.5% SU notes that mature on 1/15/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org I am extending the maturity of my OHI bond position in advance by buying now the 1/15/26 maturity.
C. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.78% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.633:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR) - a Utility Holding Company.
Original Prospectus
ETR SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
This FM bond was originally issued by Entergy Gulf States Louisiana that was combined with Entergy Louisiana in 2015.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.59%
Current Yield at TC = 3.83%
I own other Entergy Louisiana $1,000 par value first mortgage bond and its exchange traded $25 par value FM bond (ELC).
5. U.S. REIT Equity Preferred Stock:
A. Added to SLGPRI - Bought 3 at $20.94:
Quote: SLG-PI
Cost $62.79
I am just rounded my position up to 50 shares before the ex dividend date.
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Issuer: SL Green Realty Corp (SLG) - Primarily a NYC Office REIT
I have eliminated my position in the common stock and will now own only the preferred stock whose dividend can not be cut or eliminated outside of a bankruptcy reorganization, and the dividend can not be deferred for as long as a cash dividend is paid to the common shareholders.
Coupon: 6.5%
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid quarterly, non-qualified (pass through entity) and cumulative
New Average cost per share: $21.08 (50 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 6/25/24 after add |
Last Ex Dividend: 6/28/24 (owned all as of)
Optional Call: Call protection expired in 2017. The stock may be called at par value + the accrued and unpaid dividend.
Stopper Clause: Standard
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Credit Ratings: In junk territory at B+/B1
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in SLGPRI - Sold 15 at $21.28 - Fidelity Account (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.49)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.A. Added to SLGPRI in Schwab Account - Bought 3 at $17.5; 2 at $17.27 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 5.C. Added 2 SLGPRI at $17.99 (11/18/23 Post)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Eliminated SLGPRI-Sold 20 at $25.96 (9/12/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $122); Item # 5 Sold 50 SLGPRI at $23.6 (4/3/2014 Post)
SLGPRI Realized Gains to Date: $213.77
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
The 6 month treasury bill that will be auctioned on Monday will mature on 1/2/25. When held to maturity, the interest will be taxable in 2025.
ReplyDeleteSign - I missed the treasury auction comment until now. I might have wanted to buy some. Though with my conversion intended for this year and next, it doesn't solve everything to defer.
ReplyDeleteLots packed into the blog. Not convinced Wes Moore would have much draw especially with the moderate middle that needs to be brought onboard. He's not that memorable.
What about Amy Klobachar or Cory Booker? Amy wasn't picked for VP because it was during black lives matter and her state's attorney position. I read some problem with Booker but it didn't stick with me. In the end, Biden beat everyone who ran at the time.
I'd like a physical and cognitive testing to rule in/out a candidate's eligibility. I'm not convinced a younger Trump than now could have passed.
Is it possible at the convention to pick other team? I've seen twitter claims that it's too late to get on the national ballot. I don't know the rules, but other conventions have split so it must not be a problem?
I wonder if the best ad reaction would be to show Biden at the debate - with immediate contrast to Biden at speeches the day before/or after.... to reclaim the idea that he's incompetent. With contrast to Trump at his incompetent 'lucid' moments.
Land: The 3 and 6 month treasury bill yields have flatlined. The investment rates today were 5.383% (90 day) and 5.324% for the 181 day that matures on 1/2/25.
DeleteBoth yields are not consistent with a 25 basis point cut in the FF this year. If there is a cut this year, I would expect no more than .25% and no earlier than the December meeting.
Biden would have to withdraw from the race before the convention and release his delegates. I do not see him doing that. So if he is still living, or not in a coma long term, he will be the nominee and will most likely IMO lose to Trump in November.
Trump lied throughout the debate. When he wasn't lying, he was just evasive.
If voters elect an authoritarian psychopath in November, who is incapable of telling the truth and who has now been greenlighted by the Republican Justices to commit crimes without repercussions other than impeachment which will never have enough Republican senate votes to convict no matter how many crimes Trump commits and their seriousness, then that is where we are and there is nothing that I can do to change the result, just one inconsequential voice in a nation that has lost its bearings.
See my YT video: Republican Justices Greenlight the President to Commit Crimes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjEjkVH5DnI&t=154s
It is all awful. There is one other possibility. Trump gives himself a heart attack. But that won't change that it's this GOP that will nominate someone, with high likelihood of winning.
DeleteOn seeking alpha and other businesses sources, many / most headlines are calling for a pullback. That's been all of a sudden, like they all read the same tea leaves. It always seems to be based on 1) it's been a great run up 2) summer time pullback (that I've noticed usually doesn't materialize.)
ReplyDeleteMy dad's found another retirement community to buy into. My time at home is up for now. I'll be helping him and staying with him till he's moved in.
ReplyDeleteThe community sent a bunch of paperwork with a comment that there'lll be a later batch more. I asked for the more so I can read it now. They stalled 2xs and only sent them on a 3rd pushback. So that made me wonder what's in there.
There's two forms that raises questions. I've heard of family being asked to sign support on the way into a nursing home, and being required to pay after their family member passes. Including even with their home.
I don't think that's possible here to ask for much of our (family member's) money because we'd know how the bills are piling up as outlined in the contract.
He's going into independent living with a move to assisted living possible when needed. That assisted is expensive.
One of the forms (minus the community contact info):
Form Title:
Statement of Intention to Provide Financial Support
Form Contents:
The undersigned, relatives or friends of _______,
who is applying to be a Member at the (community), does / do
affirm my / our promise to assist ____________
with payments to cover the cost of maintenance fees or additional care which, when
needed, may be beyond his / her own resources and ability to pay.
_______________
Printed Name Signature Date
___________
It's so vague and softly written that I don't know what it means in court. But if this is sneaky, even if ineffective, I want to be forewarned to be careful with this business office. (Oddly they are a non-profit.)
The other form asks if a family member is able to manage the bank account the applicant uses to pay bills and if so to sign that they are. We're joint on that account of his, but I have no intention of signing that I am.
Land: The language that you quoted is similar to an open ended guarantee to make payments when your dad has no money left to pay the bills or otherwise fails to pay. A lawyer could argue that it is too indefinite and vague to be enforceable, but once you have to hire a lawyer, you have already lost given the cost.
DeleteWould a $1 payment qualify as an "assist" or would the implied duty of "good faith" mean something far more substantial? What would constitute a breach of the agreement that would allow the operator to sue for collection? Litigation is costly and the threat of it may cause many who sign this kind of guarantee to pay bills incurred by someone else.
I pulled a few references that you can review. I am not familiar with this area other than what I just read in these articles.
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/consumer-tools/educator-tools/resources-for-older-adults/know-your-rights-caregivers-and-nursing-home-debt/
Nursing Facilities Can’t Ask Family, Others to Guarantee Payment
https://www.crameranderson.com/nursing-facilities-cant-ask-family-others-to-guarantee-payment/
https://justiceinaging.org/can-nursing-home-force-family-to-pay-the-bill/
Thanks! That's a very, very useful breakdown. Those are the type of questions of what it means, that makes it 'confusing.'
DeleteThe threat of a suit seems like a key. That answers to whether the vagueness makes it mean anything. The answer being that it doesn't matter since there's the litigation possibility.
I believe these two forms are optional and I'll be opting not to sign. But also, the knot in my stomach has settled in. I'll be cautious with them. So far my dad's understood that he's not to sign anything unless I'm there to review it.
This will be his 3rd home. Maybe this one will stick! He does not want to be in his house, unlike your mom. He seems to from his Holocaust experience, have childhood trauma that he can't be by himself. It terrifies him, not merely bothers him.
ReplyDeleteI have place an order to buy $10,000 of the 4 month treasury bill at tomorrow's auction. The 1 and 2 month bill auctions, normally held on Thursday, will occur Wednesday due to the holiday.
ReplyDelete+++
Trump will leave devastation in his wake that will consume his associates. Trump is a firestorm of malevolence that knows no restraint. .
I noted today that Rudy Giuliani was disbarred by NY.
Trump retweeted a post that called for Liz Cheney to be tried before a military tribunal for treason. Her treason in Trump's America was participating in the House panel that investigated January 6th. Maybe Trump will have her head cut off and stuck on a pole, an official act to protect the country from radical left thugs who want to destroy the U.S. according to Trump. This practice was followed by English Kings as punishment for treason, which included anything that the King did not like. Thomas More had his head separated and place on a pole along London Bridge by King Henry VIII, the crime being treason, which in this case, was defined as a disagreement about religious preferences. More wanted to remain a Catholic.
The Republican Justices have given Trump a greenlight to do whatever he wants if re-elected. One thing is for certain. Republicans will refuse to even look at evidence that justifies the criminal charges brought against Trump to date and that will not change no matter how many crimes Trump commits during his second term, if re-elected which now appears likely to me.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/06/brkl-cpxpreca-cvbf-dpg-fts-mdt-nwn-peo.html