I would seriously doubt there will ever be the political will to tackle this problem which is already out of control.
One point about the new radical bailout idea for the banks is that it gives the public an incentive to invest in future bank preferred stock issues. When the government put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship, the preferred stock issues were just about wiped out. For many months prior to that event, U.S. banks had been successfully raising new capital by issuing preferred stock. The destruction of value in the preferred stocks of Fannie and Freddie made that option impossible. I am not aware of a single public issue of preferred stock by a bank since the seizure of Fannie and Freddie. Investors do not care to see an investment go to zero soon after buying a $25 par value preferred stock issue which happened with one of the Fannie preferred issues from earlier in the year. Also, given the preference rights, a preferred shareholder is unlikely to receive anything in the event of a FDIC seizure. So a new shareholder in a preferred stock issue wants to have a lot of comfort about the bank surviving and not just for a few months. The new plan does not destroy or even diminish existing common and preferred stock holders in the banks, and requires only the payment of a 5% annual dividend for five years. Thus, as I understand it now, it adds capital in a non-punitive way and even shores up the value of existing preferred shareholders by adding to the bank's capital on favorable terms. That is why you saw a huge rally today in bank preferred stock issues. This plan will give the banks an opportunity to raise additional capital down the road by issuing preferred and common stock, and hopefully the preferred stock will not have to be on onerous terms. Prior to this action, it was common to see existing bank preferred stocks reduced in price to 1/2 or lower of par value, juicing the yields in many cases to 15 to 25% which would be prohibitively expensive for a new issue. You want private investors providing the needed capital in the long run rather than the U.S. government.
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