Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: DOC, ENF:CA, GDO, PPLT, TPVG, VOD

Economy:

Trump economic advisor: Trade deal with Mexico is 'even closer' Mexico's newly elected President made it clear that he wanted to get the NAFTA renegotiation over quickly. Mexico’s president-elect reportedly seeks quick Nafta deal - MarketWatch 

Canada has not even attended the recent U.S-Mexico negotiations that appear likely to result in an agreement. 

Even if Trump comes to terms with the Trudeau Administration, will Canada's Parliament go along with an agreement that is acceptable to Donald because it is so disadvantageous to Canada? 

The original NAFTA agreement faced political struggles in Canada before being approved by parliament. North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - The Canadian Encyclopedia

+++

Markets and Market Commentary:

As I mentioned last night, the market is not noticeably reacting to the Cohen and Manafort news released after the close yesterday. The minor and meaningless movement in bonds and stocks prior to today's opening would normally occur on a day with no news.  

Gundlach warns record bond speculation could cause big move in interest rates 



The legendary investor who predicted the past 2 bubbles breaks down how the 9-year bull market will end

Dow is flashing 2 bullish signs, says technician Ralph Acampora


David Stockman: ‘Unhinged White House’ to cause stock market crash (Stockman is a perma bear)


Vestas warns of rising costs due to US metal tariffs


It is important to keep in mind that Donald's tariffs are equivalent to tax hikes on U.S. consumers. The tax hikes will not be uniform but will be widespread and becoming more so as more goods are included in the tariffs, including products that are incorporated by U.S. manufactures in end user products. When the Duck admits that he has raised U.S. consumer prices in a tweet, I would appreciate a link in case I miss it. 


U.S. firms warn next China tariffs to cost Americans from cradle to grave | Reuters

++++

Trump

Donald, the New York Times, and the White Counsel Interview by Mueller's Team


When referring to the New York Times, Donald invariably inserts the word "failing". This is an excerpt from the last filed 10-Q: 







Sourced: 10-Q for the Q/E 7/1/18 (how many Trumpsters would look at the financials and if, any bothered to check the Duck's claims about the NYT "failing", how many would understand that the profit of $23,596 is not $23+K but $23+M in one quarter; note the $530.302M in cash and cash equivalents and another $248.848M in marketable securities) 


For a newspaper, the NYT is doing well and is obviously not failing. The NYT and the Washington Post have made a successful transition to online subscriptions. I subscribe to both


Donald's most recent attack on the NYT was made last Sunday in response to the following linked story, which was republished at MSN and is consequently available to non-subscribers: 


White House Counsel Has Cooperated Extensively With Mueller’s Obstruction Inquiry


Here is what the Duck had to say about that article: (1) called the two authors "Fake reporters"; (2) referred to the NYT as "Fake News" and the "Failing New York Times; (3) used the words "Fake News Media" and "Enemy of the People" again, and (4) claimed that some members of the media called him to complain about the "Fake Story". That last reference is probably to Sean Hannity and may include other Trump sycophants like Gregg Jarrett and/or Jeanine Pirro




I would suggest reading the article and then Donald's tweets. 


Donald's central complaint was that the article "made it seem like the White House Counsel had Turned" on him. 


I would emphasize that the article mentions that the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II was authorized by Trump's lawyers to talk to Mueller. These are quotes from the article:  


(1) "The president’s lawyers have explained that they believed their client had nothing to hide and that they could bring the investigation to an end quickly;" and 


(2) the following quoted statement from McGahn's lawyer Willaim Burck: “President Trump, through counsel, declined to assert any privilege over Mr. McGahn’s testimony, so Mr. McGahn answered the special counsel team’s questions fulsomely and honestly, as any person interviewed by federal investigators must.” 


Burck has represented three WH employees so far: Bannon, Priebus, McGahn: Bill Burck's White House Client Juggle | The American Lawyer McGahn is the only one still working there. 


The problem for Trump is that McGahn allegedly provided "a mix of information both potentially damaging and favorable to the president." The story was based on "a dozen current and former White House officials and others briefed on the matter."  The reporters also printed comments from Sarah Sanders, the Duck's Press Secretary, and McGahn's lawyer to their article. McGahn's did not "incriminate" Trump,  nor did he assert the Trump had engaged in any wrongdoing.   


One crucial element in an obstruction of justice charge is the defendant's "corrupt" intent. If a criminal charge of obstruction fails, it is frequently the result of the jury having reasonable doubt on that essential requirement. Why Trump’s Tweets Are Interesting to Mueller - Bloomberg18 U.S. Code § 1505 - Obstruction of proceedings before departments, agencies, and committees 


McGahn would have evidence on what was going through Trump's lizard brain when he fired Mueller and threatened to fire Sessions. A defense lawyer would want to prevent that kind of discussion with prosecutors rather than to encourage it based on a misguided belief that only exonerating evidence will be given by the WH counsel who is not Trump's attorney. 


McGahn's opinion on whether Trump committed a crime is nowhere near as relevant and important as his testimony about what Trump said or told him to do.  


Trump unsettled by McGahn's 30 hours with the special counselJohn Dean: Donald Trump has 'a real problem' after Don McGahn's interviews with Robert Mueller


A lot can out in 30 hours of an interview. A far safer course would have been to prevent the interview from taking place altogether by asserting executive privilege.  


Everyone can draw their own conclusions, but the following tweets that relate to the Mueller and McGahn published last Monday are more examples of Donald being unhinged: 






Melania Trump Called for Good Behavior on Social Media. The President Unleashed More Attacks on Twitter.


The Mueller investigation is not likely to cause a change in any Senate or House race unless Mueller publicly releases facts proving collusion to any fair minded person before the election. I doubt that will happen if he has any such information.  


Donald's conduct and statements are likely to result in GOP losses. 


The Duck's approval rating would be over 50% without his incessant cyber bullying, steady stream of personal invective and venom, pathological lying, and other offensive and repulsive personality traits. 


The negative effect from those undesirable personality issues are going to cost republicans in the midterms and could have easily been avoided by Donald by just being a better person or at least significantly less of a total jerk. 


So if the republicans lose the House in November, notwithstanding a good economy, Donald can look in the mirror and assign the blame to the person staring back at him. That of course will never happen. Instead, the Duck will blame the Enemy of the People, Mueller, unproven illegal voting for Democrats (not one single illegal vote for a republican), and anything and everything else that he dislikes.


++  


Donald and Paul Manafort


The Teflon Don thinks the prosecutors are being mean to Paul Manafort: “I think the whole Manafort trial is very sad. I think it’s a very sad day for our country. He happens to be a very good person, and I think it’s very sad what they’ve done to Paul Manafort.” Trump declines to rule out Manafort pardon as jury considers verdict 


Paul Manafort guilty on 5 counts of tax fraud, 2 counts of bank fraud, and 1 count of failure to disclose a foreign bank account The jury was unable to reach a verdict on 10 counts and the judge declared a mistrial on those counts. The government could retry Manafort on those counts, but I doubt that will happen. Manafort does face another criminal trial on other matters relating to his failure to register as a foreign lobbyist. 


So in Trump's America, and based on what Donald clearly said about the injustice of the Manafort criminal prosecutions, it is not what Paul Manafort did that is "very sad" even though a jury found him guilty of committing several felonies. 


Instead what is "very sad" to the Teflon Don is that the prosecutors charged Manafort with bank and tax fraud in the first place. 


In TrumpWorld, Manafort has not only done nothing wrong, but needs to be canonized as a Saint.  


+++

Donald and The Free Press

Donald claims that newspapers are colluding against him by stating that are not "the enemy of the people". Trump Says Newspapers Are ‘in Collusion’ on Championing a Free Press - The New York Times

The Duck's attacks on the media are almost a daily occurrence now. This is one of the latest examples:



This online poll is probably close to how Americans view the free press after decades of relentless attacks by the GOP and their apparatchiks at Fox, talk radio and newer media outlets like Daily Caller, Infowars, and Breitbart.  



It is way past time for the sleepers to awaken. 


The Trumpsters are not reachable with accurate information. 


For the week ending 8/19/18, Donald's approval rating rose to 42% from 39% in the prior week. Trump Job Approval (Weekly)


At a campaign rally yesterday evening in West Virginia, the Trumpsters started chanting "Drain the Swamp" and "Lock her Up". A criminal conviction and exhausting all appeals thereafter, are not predicates to locking Hillary up forever and throwing away the key in Trump's America. The Trumpsters will be chanting "Lock Her Up" for many years to come. 

+++


Trump and His Former Fixer Michael Cohen


In addition to his tax and bank fraud guilty pleas, Cohen also plead guilty to arranging illegal campaign contributions at the behest of the Teflon Don to keep two women (Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal) from discussing publicly their affairs with the Duck. 


Cohen's guilty plea relating to the McDougal payment also implicates David Pecker and America Media who publishes the National Enquirer. 

The $420K payment made to reimburse Cohen for the $130K Stormy Daniel's hush money may generate a criminal charge if there was a tax return filed claiming a legal fee deduction for that payment. 

Trump Organization executives classified the first several payments made to Cohen as a retainer, but there was no retainer. The remaining payments were classified as legal fees. The prosecutors claim "there was no such retainer agreement, and the monthly invoices COHEN submitted were not in connection with any legal services he had provided in 2017". Trump’s company approved $420,000 in payments to Cohen, relying on ‘sham’ invoices, prosecutors say - The Washington Post  

Michael Cohen plea deal: payments to Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels, explained - Vox

Read Trump ex-lawyer Michael Cohen's full plea agreement


Michael Cohen says he worked to silence two women ‘in coordination’ with Trump to influence 2016 election - The Washington Post


Michael Cohen 'testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime,' lawyer says


Cohen and Manafort Are in Deeper Legal Trouble. Mueller Could Benefit.

Showboat Rudy claimed that Michael Cohen's plea agreement had nothing to do with Trump, which may be true except for the campaign law guilty pleas that directly involves the Duck.  Giuliani says no allegations of wrongdoing by Trump-TheHill But then Giuliani claimed that "Truth is not Truth". If you had to sum up Donald, that is a good a phrase as any. 


The plea agreement directly impacts Trump on the campaign finance law crimes. 


No republican in Congress would vote to commence impeachment proceedings against Donald based on a campaign finance violation even if a tape emerged with Donald's voice clearly entering into a conspiracy to violate the law. 


No republican would vote to launch an impeachment investigation in the House Judiciary Committee based on evidence publicly known now of Trump's effort to obstruct the Russian investigation. 


Most republican House members were with Nixon even after the tapes revealed unambiguously that he engaged in obstruction of justice. The few who did support impeaching Nixon would no longer be affiliated with the modern day GOP that is now Trump's party and firmly under his control. (e.g. William Cohen of Maine: Echoes of 1973: One longtime Republican lawmaker recalls the challenge of bucking his own party’s president - The Washington Post).  


++


No signs North Korea is shutting down its nuclear program, U.N. says - MarketWatch


The two term republican governor of Minnesota, the sane Tim Pawlenty, developed a sure fired losing strategy to win a third term. 


Before the 2016 election, Pawlenty called Donald "unsound, uninformed, unhinged and unfit to be president”. 


Pawlenty was of course defeated by a Trump sycophant in the GOP primary: 


Officials worry Trump may back Erik Prince plan to privatize war in Afghanistan

The Trump administration is dismantling financial protections for the military


Truth-Testing Trump’s 250-Plus Attacks on the Russia Inquiry


Timeline of Russia Investigation - FactCheck.org


Trump Tax Cut Unlocks Millions for a Republican Election Blitz - The New York Times (so it is important for the top 1% to pay back the GOP for "tax reform")


Giuliani warns of perjury trap: 'Truth isn't truth' (that's right, false is what is true) Invented reality creations and accusation unsupported by evidence are also true facts. 


++++


Donald and McCarthyism


Donald suggested that we study McCarthyism to understand what is happening to him. I would suggest studying that period to understand more fully the similarities between the two demagogues.  




There are many parallels between the demagoguery of Joseph McCarthy,  and Donald. 


One of the most striking similarities is the frequent use of  accusations that are not supported by any evidence. 


Donald does that almost daily, usually in several tweets published particularly over the weekend. He states his conclusions as a fact. 


The following tweet is just one recent example, where he states that John Brennan was the "Worst" CIA director in history, asking whether anyone has looked into Brennan's mistakes which is another McCarthy style tactic similar to a question like "when did you stop beating your wife". 




Note that he does even list any of the alleged mistakes, nor does he provide any factual support for his conclusion that Brennan was the Worst CIA director in history. That is how an demagogues like Trump and Joseph McCarthy work.  


Brennan was the CIA director between 2013-2017. He has come under criticism from some liberals for the CIA's use of drone strikes during his tenure which resulted in "collateral damage" and has continued to do so under Trump. If that is one of Brennan's mistakes, then Donald has made the same mistake. 
Donald Trump expanding use of drone strikes - AxiosDrone Use Grows Under Trump, Away From the Public Eye - The Atlantic 


Michael Hayden says he too would be honored if Trump revoked his security clearance - CNN 


Dozens more ex-officials decry Trump's decision on Brennan revocation


++++

1. Sold 100 ENF:CA at C$33 (C$1 IB Commission):



Quote: Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (Canada: Toronto)


Profit Snapshot: +C$44.5


This purchase was made on 9/19/16 and discussed briefly in South Gent's Comment Blog # 1.


Dividend:  Monthly at C$.1711 Historical Distributions - Enbridge Income Fund


This 100 share lot was my highest cost lot. I decided to exit the position with a profit after harvesting almost two years of monthly dividends. At a C$33 price, the dividend yield is about 6.22%. Preservation of capital is my primary objective with income generation as the secondary objective followed by capital appreciation in a distant third.


I recently sold my position in the ordinary shares priced in USDs and traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. Item # 4 Sold 100 EBGUF at $24.4 (7/9/18);(profit= +US$97.51)-Item # 1 Bought Back 100 EBGUF at $23.43 (11/13/17 Post)Enbridge Income Fund Holdings (EBGUF)


Enbridge (ENB) is attempting to acquire the Enbridge Income shares that it does not own. Enbridge Announces Simplification of Corporate Structure with Proposals to Acquire All of the Outstanding Sponsored Vehicle Equity Securities


The price of ENF:CA will consequently go up and down to reflect movements in the ENB:CA stock price.


Since I expect the merger to occur, this will probably be my last transaction in ENF:CA or EBGUF.


Prior Trades: Item # 6 Eliminated EBGUF-Sold 100 at $25.73 (10/2/17 Post)-Item 2.A. Bought 100 EBFUF at $24.55 (8/25/17 Post)


Bought: 100 ENF:CA at C$23 (11/6/13 Post)(profit snapshot= C$427)=-Item # 1 Sold 100 ENF:CA at C$27.65 (8/2/14 Post)


2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy

A. Bought 1 Royal Bank of Canada 2.15% SU Bond Maturing on 3/6/20:



FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Credit Ratings: 


Bought at a Total Cost of 98.762 (with $1 Commission)
YTM at TC Then at 2.958% (3.024% without $1 commission)
Current Yield at TC =  2.177%

I would prefer having more of the yield reflected in current yield rather than tied up in realizing the spread between the discount to par value and par value which is included in the YTM calculation. 

The significant percentage difference between the current yield and the YTM is not that important when buying short term bonds, since the discount will be captured soon enough, assuming the issuer survives to pay off the bond's principal amount. I am not worried about the Royal Bank of Canada paying off the principal amount in March 2020. This is the kind of bond where I will average down in 1 bond lots when and if the price declines, given the availability of 1 bond lot purchases and the quality of the issuer.   

When investing in low quality bonds, particularly those with CCC+ or lower ratings, the survival of the issuer may be an issue.

B. Bought 1 Royal Bank of Canada 2.35% SU Bond Maturing on 10/30/20:




FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer and Credit Ratings: See Previous Discussion


Bought at a Total Cost of 98.582

YTM at TC Then at 3.013%
Current Yield at TC= 2.3838%

C. Bought 2 General Mills 3.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/16/21-In a Roth IRA Account:




FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


This bond was issued as part of the financing for the Blue Buffalo Pet Products acquisition.


Issuer: General Mills Inc. (GIS)

GIS Analyst Estimates
General Mills Reports Fourth-Quarter And Full-Year Fiscal 2018 Results; Provides 2019 Outlook - Jun 27, 2018

Credit Ratings: See Confirmation


Bought at a Total Cost of 99.869  (includes $4 Vanguard Commission)

YTM at TC Then at 3.25%
Current Yield at TC = 3.2042%

3. Small Ball

A. Bought 10 GDO at $16.39-Used Commission Free Trade



Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc.  (GDO)


Closing Price Yesterday: 
GDO $16.50 +$0.03 +0.18% 


GDO is a global bond CEF that uses leverage. The fund will terminate on or about 12/2/24 and will return the proceeds from its investment to GDO's shareholders. WA Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. | Legg Mason


Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. Portfolio Composition as of June 30, 2018 


At times in the past I have owned over 1000 GDO shares. I sold out of every closed end fund that uses leverage to buy bonds due to the rise in short term borrowing cost and the overall downtrend in bond prices. I started to buy back GDO only in small lots using commission free trades. 


Data Date of Trade (8/13/18):

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share = $17.87 
Closing Market Price = $16.33 (down $.11)
Discount to Net Asset Value Per Share = -8.62%
Average Discounts: 
1 Year    -6.98 %
3 Years  -8.22 %
5 Years  -9.23%

Sourced: GDO Page at CEF Connect 


Current Position: ONLY 103+ Shares due to perceived interest rate risks


Average Cost Per Share: $16.8


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each new purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)


Highest Cost Lot in Current ChainItem # 2 Bought 50 GDO at $17.01 and 10 at $16.82-Used Commission Free Trades (2/22/18 Post)


Last Substantive Discussions


Item # 1.A Bought 10 GDO at 16.49 (5/31/18 Post) 


Item # 2 Bought 50 GDO at $17.01 and 10 at $16.82-Used Commission Free Trades (2/22/18 Post)


Dividend: Monthly, currently at $.101 per share ($1.212 annually)


The dividend has been trending down. 


Dividend Yield at a TC of $16.8 per share = 7.2143%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/23/18


Reinvestment: Yes when the discount to net asset value per share is greater than 5%. 


Leverage Information: 24.13% as of  6/30/18


GDO borrows money under a revolving credit agreement with the National Bank of Australia. The rate is short term and based on a spread to the short term Libor rate. (See Discussion at page 44: WA Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc)


It is not a good idea to buy assets that go down in price with borrowed money whose carrying cost is rising.    


Duration as of 6/30/18: 5.64Years


Duration and Interest Rate Movement InformationGet to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard


B. Bought 2 PPLT at $76.13 and 2 at $74.96 -Used Commission Free Trades






Quote:  ETFS Physical Platinum Shares Overview 


Closing Price Yesterday: PPLT $75.45 -$0.12 -0.16% 


Precious metals have been in a long term secular bear market since 2011 and that dominant trend has reasserted itself over the past several weeks as the USD gained strength. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Interactive Chart-MarketWatch


Chart:  PPLT Chart (Major BEAR Trend)


The price closed at $186.63 on 8/29/11. Within the past two years, there has been one meaningful short term rally where the shares went from a closing price of $79.77 (1/11/16) to $110.2  (7/25/16). The dominant trend remains down with no sign yet of stopping. 


As I recall, the precious metals received a temporary boost from Brexit, but have failed to respond meaningfully to any other external event including rising inflation in the U.S. and the U.S. initiated trade wars. 


Maximum Position: 25 Shares


I will continue purchasing in 2 share lots until I hit the maximum. A better approach might be to stick a fork in my hand whenever I start to buy more.  


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)


Current Position: 17 Shares


Average Cost Per Share: $82.87


Highest Cost Lot in Current ChainItem 1.B. Bought 10 PPLT at $86.05 (5/7/18 Post)(contains prior round trip trade snapshots for 2016-2017; realized gain at $300.98 from all trades) The highest price realized during that time frame was at $104.5 (7/6/16) which was a brief spike after the Brexit vote.  


Platinum ends 10-year low as Turkey roils; gold sinks to 1 ½-year nadir - MarketWatch


How platinum is starting to shine for bargain hunters- MarketWatch   


C. Added 5 VOD at $22.88-Used Commission Free Trade:





Quote: Vodafone Group PLC ADR


Closing Price Yesterday (8/21/): VOD $23.17 +$0.22 +0.96% 


My more recent small ball purchases were 10 share lots.


The continued downdraft in the price has spooked the Old Geezer some which cause the switch back to 5 share increments. VOD Chart


Part of the ADR's decline over the past three months is due to a decline in British Pound's value vs. the USD. The ordinary shares are price in British Pence.


This is a three month comparison chart that shows the USD priced VOD shares in green and the GBP priced ordinary shares in blue. As of 8/16/18, when this last lot was bought, the USD priced ADR was down 14.1% compared to a 9.58% decline in the GDP priced ordinary shares USD / GBP Currency Chart. US Dollar to British Pound Rates That is what I call the double whammy.


The Pound has been weak due in large part to fears that there would be a hard Brexit landing.


I also noticed news that the CEO sold 1/3rd of his position at the current low prices which contributed to the condition of being spooked.


Position: 66+ Shares


Maximum Position: 100 shares


Average Cost Per Share = $25.03


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Last Dividend: $1.22 per share with a 6/7/18 ex date


Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com


Chart: Bear Trend Since 1/8/18


Last Substantive Buy DiscussionItem 1.B. Bought 20 VOD at $26.57 (5/24/18 Post)


Last Sell DiscussionItem 1.A. Sold 51+ VOD at $30.21 (11/30/17 Post)


In a 8/13/18 report, Morningstar assigned a 4 star rating and a U.S.$32 price target. That report is available by subscription or free of charge for Schwab customers.


In a 7/30/18 report, S & P gave VOD a four star rating and a $31 price target.


The stock is not in any current danger of hitting either of those target prices. The stock is in a bear trend currently.


There is good dividend support. The next semi-annual dividend normally goes ex dividend in November. I did receive the last semi-annual dividend on some of my currently owned shares. The U.K. does not withhold a dividend tax. I did have to pay a fee to the ADR custodian.




4. Intermediate Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:


I am selling some corporate bonds maturing in 2025-2026 to reduce interest rate risk. I am able to replace those bonds with ones maturing in 2020 that yield about 1% less. 


A. Sold 2 Vornado Realty LP 3.5% SU Bond Maturing on 1/15/25:




Profit Snapshot: +$12.96




This bond was recently bought at a total cost of 95.652: Item # 3.C. (5/28/18 Post) As previously discussed, I am selling a few intermediate term bonds and using the proceeds to buy short term ones that pay about 1% less.


FIRNA Page: Bond Detail


Sold at 96.4

Proceeds at 96.3
YTM at Proceeds Price Then at 4.163%

5.  Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:


A. Sold 100 DOC at $17.6 (IB Account $1 Commission):




Profit: $61.25




Item 2.A. Averaged Down-Bought 50 Shares of DOC at $16.55 (1/18/18 Post)and Item # 1.B. Bought 50 DOC at $17.48 (10/9/17 Post)


Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)


Closing Price Yesterday (8/21): DOC $17.59 +$0.13 +0.74% 


I decided to dump my highest cost DOC shares for the reasons discussed in my last blog: Item # 3.A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92 (8/19/18 Post) I may start over again when and if the price sinks back below $15 per share. 


Physicians Realty Trust Interactive Chart


6. Income Generation-BDCs


A. Bought 50 TPVG at $13.02-A Roth IRA Account




TPVG is a small externally managed BDC: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)


Closing Price Yesterday (8/21): TPVG $13.35 +$0.10 +0.75% 


All prior purchases were made with commission free trades which I do not have in this Roth IRA account.


I recently discussed a 40 share add in my Schwab taxable account which raised my average total cost per share to $12.59.  Item # 3.B.  (8/15/18 Post)


Other Purchase DiscussionsItem # 2.B. Added 10 TPVG at $11.6 (3/19/18 Post)Items 1.B. and 1.C. Bought 50 TPVG at $12.32 and 10 at $12.01 (2/26/18 Post)


Dividend: Quarterly at  $.36 ($1.44 annually)


TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Dividends


Dividend Yield at $13.02 = 11.08%


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes in this account at lower than last reported net asset value per share. The last reported net asset value was $13.45 as of 6/30/18. 


Next Quarterly Ex Dividend Date: 8/30/18


Goal: In a Roth IRA account the goal is simply to collect 4 or more quarterly dividend and to exit the position at whatever profit is available which means anything over a penny is fine given the dividend yield. 


Current Position All Accounts: 179+ shares


I am not likely to buy more except through dividend reinvestment or pursuant to my small ball buying program using commission free trades in my Fidelity account where my lowest cost buy was at $11.6.  


Prior Round-TripsItem 2.B. (3/4/2017 Post)(realized gain =$153.08); Item # 3 (1/16/17 Post)(realized gain = $84.48)


TPVG Realized Share Gains To Date = $237.56


DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

12 comments:

  1. Vanguard is now offering 1800 ETFs commission free that are sponsored by other companies. When adding the 95 Vanguard ETFs which were previously commission free to its customers, all ETFs other than the leveraged ones appear to be under the commission free umbrella at that broker.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Today was somewhat unusual in that there was positive correlation between the S & P 500 index and the VIX.

    S&P 500 Index
    2,861.82 -1.14 -0.04%

    CBOE Volatility Index 12.25 -0.61 -4.74%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix

    A more normal correlation for a -4.74% VIX movement would be over a 10 point gain in the SPX.

    I would not draw any conclusions from this observation. Usually, it is a one or two day occurrence but could signal that one or the other is just wrong about the near term direction and the market will adjust in due course.

    The Bond Ghouls are unnerved about something. Interest rates declined some today.


    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 2.818% -0.015%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx



    One problem in significantly over weighting short term debt instruments maturing in less than a year is that rates could plateau and then turn down. Ultimately, no one really knows the future and interest rate movements are particularly difficult to predict.

    The yield curve is turning really flat in the 2 to 30 year range.

    2 Year at 2.60%
    3 Year at 2.65%
    5 Year at 2.7%
    7 Year at 2.77%
    10 Year at 2.82%
    20 Year at 2.91%
    30 Year at 2.99%

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

    An all out trade war is a matter of serious concern to all FED members as reflected in the minutes of the last meeting released today. A broadening of the tariff wars with no resolution prior to the December meeting could cause the FED to pause increasing the FF rate.

    It is always fascinating to me to read one of Trump's tweets where he makes an assertion that is without question false and then repeats it. An example today is the Teflon Don's claim that Cohen did not plead guilty to a campaign law crime. That is exactly what Cohen did in Counts 7 and 8 as is made clear in the Information/Indictment, his plea agreement and the proceeding before the Federal District Court judge (transcript available). It is possible to have campaign contribution violations that do not rise to a crime which is almost routine since they involve clerical errors like failing to report a donation within 48 hours or typing the wrong date of the contribution. Counts 7 and 8 are entirely different animals where large contributions in violation of the law were surreptitiously made and concealed.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NERV)
    $9.70 +$0.75 (+8.38%)
    Volume 312,469
    Avg. Volume 168,035
    Market Cap $376.111M
    At close: August 22 4:00PM EDT

    I own this one as part of my biotech lottery ticket basket but did not discuss the purchase in a blog, though I have a faint recollection of discussing it possibly in a comment somewhere.

    The price pop yesterday was probably due to this news release. The results released were from a preclinical study of a drug roluperidone (MIN-101) "on brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) which may have relevance to treating schizophrenia and several other neuro-psychiatric disorders. The company believes that this preclinical finding. "along with the clinical results seen during the phase 2b study, suggest the potential of roluperidone to change the overall course of schizophrenia."

    https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/08/22/1555107/0/en/Minerva-Neurosciences-Announces-Findings-Showing-Effect-of-Roluperidone-on-Brain-Derived-Neurotrophic-Factor-BDNF.html

    ReplyDelete
  4. While CDs maturing in less than 1 year generally have lower yields than treasuries that can be bought at auction, it is possible to pick up more yield with a CD by going out 2 years.

    At Schwab, both UBS and Wells Fargo have 2.8% CD offering maturing in 2 years that pay interest monthly. The WFC is offering is also available at Fidelity.

    The two year treasury note is currently trading to yield about 2.613%.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd02y?countrycode=bx

    ReplyDelete
  5. I am continuing to swap minor amounts out of longer duration intermediate term bonds into short term bonds maturing in about 2 years where I can pick up more yield than a 10 Year treasury bond.

    I sold 1 Boston Properties 3.8% SU maturing in 2024 at 100.233 and bought 1 Wisconsin Energy Corp 2.45% SU bond maturing on 6/15/20 at 99, adjusted to 99.1 with a $1 commission. The YTM at my total cost for that bond will be 2.966%:

    http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?symbol=WEC4255724&ticker=C632231

    ReplyDelete
  6. I am extremely inspired together with your writing abilities and also with
    the structure on your weblog. Is this a paid subject or did you
    customize it your self? Either way stay up the excellent quality writing, it is rare to look a great blog like this one these days..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This website, Blogspot.com, is owned by Google and is provided to anyone free of charge who wishes to write a blog. A large number of blogs are hosted at this website from around the world.

      The format is one of many provided by Google. I decide what appears on the right side among several alternatives provided by Google.

      I have never received any compensation for writing this blog if that is your question. I do not allow Google to place advertising on my site, even though that option is available.

      I write about American politics which some readers probably choose to ignore since the subject interest me and I am concerned about the direction of my country.

      I published your comment even though it does not appear to be substantive and may even be spam from overseas given the broken English. I will not be publishing any more non-substantive remarks.

      Delete
  7. Read this about KO? This is the laughable corporate con-game I'm not giving a cent to, but of course I just put $50K in 2-mo CD @ 1.85%, so indirectly, I'm perpetuating this corporate debt con-game which is the US "economy" Sad...
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-23/simon-black-some-thoughts-longest-bull-market-ever

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will be publishing tomorrow a post that will discuss some of the issues raised in the zero hedge article. It is an update on my portfolio management.

      Zero Hedge is a perma bear publication. I pay no attention to it or to perma bears like John Hussman who managed to stay bearish for this entire bull market starting in March 2009 or very close to it, thereby causing substantial harm to his investors compared to a simple 60/40 balanced portfolio using low cost index funds.

      Alan Abelson, who wrote the main column in Barron's every week for decades until shortly before his passing, was bullish for about 15 minutes in 1982, only a slight exaggeration.

      There are always reasons for concern and information that is both negative and positive.

      Zero Hedge and the perma bears will always present you with a glass that is full of toxic nuclear waste and lack any balance in their presentations, rarely discussing the positives or belittling positive trends for no good reason.

      The key IMO is to look at all of the facts and try to make an assessment when there will be a non-temporary and major change in direction that goes beyond the onset of a 10% to 20% correction into something more sinister, long lasting and problematic. We have seen 2 of those directional changes in the last 18 years. And, in many respects, the world is more dicey with debt bombs than at anytime in world history.

      Delete
    2. I don't agree. Zerohedge has posted NUMEROUS pro-Trump articles, I don't know how you deduce your opinion, but S&P Price-To_Sales is 8.24, I would not know that without perusing ZH, anyway you cut it, even through SCAM-buybacks,NON-GAAP LEGAL ACCOUNTING SCAMS , taxes reduced by 21%, the price-to REVENUES is 8.24. Highest in history. I'm happy in CDs, until the sht-show hits the fan, everyone buying-up single-family homes in my area for $400.00/sq ft+ are morons, (San Diego) I now see all asking prices dropped 5-10%... just like the above "Buy The All-Time High" (because it's going even higher.) America's debt (at least 50% of Americans are illiterate morons surviving on increased debt) so now the small banks figured out they have subprime credit-card borrowers.Yet banks have "record" $60 BILLION in profits for the latest quarter, do I read that anywhere else but ZHedge? while they have decimated savers for 9 years?, this is the most egregious transfer of wealth in US history that we are witnessing... enabled by the Federal Reserve, who is also paying Primary Dealer banks(22?) 1.75% ( or is it 1.5% annual?) on any monies "parked with the Fed", but they switch those "electronic assets" out, AT EACH QUARTER END to show less in liabilities. Anyone who reads all this
      crap is outraged, the masses trying to save have no idea how this complex scheme deprives them of interest on their savings. The US financial system has NEVER been more corrupt, imo, not unlike the Pentagon who apparently "lost $Trillions"

      Delete
    3. I have been laying out the bull case for stocks for a very long time here, using available data to identify the powerful economic forces that are driving this bull market. I quit debating the perma bears a long time ago perma bears who still believe they have been right for the past 9 years. I found that to be tiresome and not worth my time since no minds would be changed by my objective analysis.

      As to the P/S ratio for the S & P 500, I don't know where you get 8.24. The P/S ratio is now at 2.27 which is high by recent historical standards.


      http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

      I cited recently in a post an article that pointed out that median S & P 500 P/S ratio is high and is almost double the level hit in 2000:

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/behold-the-scariest-chart-for-the-stock-market-2018-08-08

      I would not call publishing numerous pro-Trump articles a sign of good judgment. Cutting taxes will give the economy a short term boost but will create more serious fiscal problems for the federal government that will have severe adverse economic repercussions down the road along with other improvident acts of fiscal irresponsibility.

      I have posting for several years now articles referring to the FED's monetary policy as a Jihad Against the Savings Class. In effect, responsible savers who had no responsibility for causing the problems that blew up in 2008 paid for the recklessness and fraud of others who did through an extended period of abnormally low rates. The only effective way to do deal with that problem was to move money out of safe assets like shot term CDs into stocks. For those who did, there were ample rewards for a low interest rate/low inflation environment. Both of those later conditions are important foundation stones for long term bull markets as shown by the most recent rise since March 9, 2009 and during the 1950 through 1965 period.

      Both inflation and interest rates started to come down in 1982 that set the stage for a long term bull market that lasted 18 years.

      Usually, the seeds of the next downturn are planted during a long bull run and actually contribute to the upturn. The most common seed is debt which fueled the market's rise starting in the early 1980s, both at the government and consumer levels, and the most recent rise which involved extraordinarily large spending of borrowed money by the Chinese and U.S. governments in particular.

      Delete
  8. I have published an update on my portfolio management:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/08/update-for-portfolio-positioning-and.html

    ReplyDelete