Economy:
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | Mortgage Bankers Association
Freddie Mac Mortgage Market Survey Archive (30 year FRM at 3.74% +7 points for the week ending 12/26/19, down from 4.55% +5 points for the week ending 12/27/2018) Mortgage rates are still abnormally low. Headwinds for new home purchases are primarily the rise in home prices and the limitation on deductibility of state income and property taxes to $10K.
Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (declined to -5% from -1%)
New Home Sales.pdf
Freddie Mac Mortgage Market Survey Archive (30 year FRM at 3.74% +7 points for the week ending 12/26/19, down from 4.55% +5 points for the week ending 12/27/2018) Mortgage rates are still abnormally low. Headwinds for new home purchases are primarily the rise in home prices and the limitation on deductibility of state income and property taxes to $10K.
Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (declined to -5% from -1%)
New Home Sales.pdf
++++++
As stock indexes hit record heights, Guggenheim’s Minerd says we’re near a ‘Minsky moment’ and ‘silly season in risk assets’ - MarketWatch The rally does have IMO the feel of a developing Minsky Moment, a topic discussed by me in prior posts. The last Minsky Moment was in 2008. The Minsky Moment | The New Yorker (published 1/27/2008); Minsky Moment Defined'
Minsky Moment' Hangs Over World Swimming in Debt: QuickTake Q&A - Bloomberg
If the U.S. government quit spending $1 trillion per year in borrowed money, GDP growth would quickly turn negative.
Federal government deficit spending was at 4.6% of U.S. GDP in the 2019 F/Y, up from 3.8% in F/Y 2018. Federal Budget Deficit Swelled to Nearly $1 Trillion in 2019 - The New York Times
The question is how much longer will the U.S. be able to sustain budget deficits anywhere near current and projected levels.
For now, the debt bombs are out-of-sight and out-of-mind as they have been several times within the past 15 years. Ignoring the problem as it grows parabolically will not prevent another explosion.
The primary drivers for a long term secular stock bull market are still in place. Those include currently low interest rates and inflation and, more importantly, a consensus long term forecast that they will remain low for decades.
The persistence of abnormally low interest rates for extended period has created and will continue to create major problems that grow in severity as the time period extends forward:
(1) money is borrowed and spent unwisely (broadly defined);
(2) pension plans will eventually be unable to meet their commitments, a problem that will be aggravated during a long term bear market for stocks and other risk asset classes;
(3) banks will reduce credit availability even more when net interest margins are obliterated quickly by rising loan defaults;
(4) risk assets are driven up in price which is increasing the risks of a major financial crisis when stock prices collapse again (two such collapses in the past 2 decades-over 11+ years since the last one);
(5) massive capital misallocations have accelerated with investments in non-productive assets and uses (related to (1) above); and
(6) households who rely on risk free savings continue to earn returns lower than the inflation rate before taxes.
My Vix Asset Allocation Model is still flashing green.
Traditional valuation measures are at worrisome levels.
Shiller PE Ratio Chart
Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Trailing 12 Month GAAP P/E for SPX: 25.23 as of 12/20/19 and 25.53 as of 12/27/19 WSJ Index P/Es
The 12 month trailing P/Es, based on GAAP accounting, were 27.55 for the Nasdaq 100 and 37.98 for the Russell 2000 as of 12/27/19.
Minsky Moment' Hangs Over World Swimming in Debt: QuickTake Q&A - Bloomberg
If the U.S. government quit spending $1 trillion per year in borrowed money, GDP growth would quickly turn negative.
Federal government deficit spending was at 4.6% of U.S. GDP in the 2019 F/Y, up from 3.8% in F/Y 2018. Federal Budget Deficit Swelled to Nearly $1 Trillion in 2019 - The New York Times
The question is how much longer will the U.S. be able to sustain budget deficits anywhere near current and projected levels.
For now, the debt bombs are out-of-sight and out-of-mind as they have been several times within the past 15 years. Ignoring the problem as it grows parabolically will not prevent another explosion.
The primary drivers for a long term secular stock bull market are still in place. Those include currently low interest rates and inflation and, more importantly, a consensus long term forecast that they will remain low for decades.
The persistence of abnormally low interest rates for extended period has created and will continue to create major problems that grow in severity as the time period extends forward:
(1) money is borrowed and spent unwisely (broadly defined);
(2) pension plans will eventually be unable to meet their commitments, a problem that will be aggravated during a long term bear market for stocks and other risk asset classes;
(3) banks will reduce credit availability even more when net interest margins are obliterated quickly by rising loan defaults;
(4) risk assets are driven up in price which is increasing the risks of a major financial crisis when stock prices collapse again (two such collapses in the past 2 decades-over 11+ years since the last one);
(5) massive capital misallocations have accelerated with investments in non-productive assets and uses (related to (1) above); and
(6) households who rely on risk free savings continue to earn returns lower than the inflation rate before taxes.
My Vix Asset Allocation Model is still flashing green.
Traditional valuation measures are at worrisome levels.
Shiller PE Ratio Chart
Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Trailing 12 Month GAAP P/E for SPX: 25.23 as of 12/20/19 and 25.53 as of 12/27/19 WSJ Index P/Es
The 12 month trailing P/Es, based on GAAP accounting, were 27.55 for the Nasdaq 100 and 37.98 for the Russell 2000 as of 12/27/19.
+++++++
Trump:
Donald's job approval rating moved up to 45% in the latest Gallup monthly poll. I have started to prepare myself mentally for Donald's reelection, viewing it as advisable to prepare myself gradually for over 64+ million Americans voting for this crazy, authoritarian, totally untrustworthy, lying asshole who has no positive personality attributes.
Fear and Loyalty: How Donald Trump Took Over the Republican Party Donald has more control over republican politicians than a Supreme and Dear Leader who can use lethal force with impunity against dissenters.
Donald's job approval rating moved up to 45% in the latest Gallup monthly poll. I have started to prepare myself mentally for Donald's reelection, viewing it as advisable to prepare myself gradually for over 64+ million Americans voting for this crazy, authoritarian, totally untrustworthy, lying asshole who has no positive personality attributes.
Fear and Loyalty: How Donald Trump Took Over the Republican Party Donald has more control over republican politicians than a Supreme and Dear Leader who can use lethal force with impunity against dissenters.
Trump’s Mar-A-Lago Winter Vacation Pushes Taxpayer Golf Tab Above $118 million; Trump Golf Count
Donald frequently criticized Obama for playing golf: The 27 times Donald Trump tweeted about Barack Obama playing golf too much - SBNation.com Donald is of course a hypocrite who is unable to experience shame.
In TrumpWorld, Donald has prevented persons with first hand knowledge from testifying about the Ukraine matter because they will exonerate him. Newly released emails provide details in White House pause of Ukraine aid These heavily redacted emails were pried out of the Trump Administration through a Freedom of Information Act request made by Center for Public Integrity who had to obtain a court order to compel Donald to comply with that law.
One of the officials who has been blocked from testifying by Trump is the budget official Michael Duffey, who told the Pentagon to freeze military aid to the Ukraine 91 minutes after Zelensky's 7/25 call. Duffey warned the Pentagon to keep the freeze secret. CPI v DoD Dec 20, 2019 Release
Trump and republican politicians in both the House and Senate are engaged in efforts to obstruct a proper investigation. There will not be a scintilla of push back from the rank and file.
US Held Off on Tariffs while Argentina Reviewed Trump Trademarks - CREW
One of the officials who has been blocked from testifying by Trump is the budget official Michael Duffey, who told the Pentagon to freeze military aid to the Ukraine 91 minutes after Zelensky's 7/25 call. Duffey warned the Pentagon to keep the freeze secret. CPI v DoD Dec 20, 2019 Release
US Held Off on Tariffs while Argentina Reviewed Trump Trademarks - CREW
Trump campaign adviser tells Wisconsin Republicans in secret recording that voting-place tactics will be stepped up - MarketWatch
Donald plays "gutter ball" everyday. 'Liars!': Trump fires off post-Christmas tweetstorm over impeachment impasse
Just a few tweets from last Thursday:
Donald and Toilet Flushing:
Trump and toilets: A theory worth flushing | Charlotte Observer
Trump Accuses Supporters of Having to Flush 'Ten Times' Only an Extremely Stable Genius could have so much insight on toilet flushing. Trump Discusses Water, Dishwashers, Showers At Rally-YouTube
Trump attacks on wind turbines, low-flow toilets and LED lightbulbs set up key campaign clash with Democrats
Donald's Deep Knowledge about Windmills:
Previously, the Extremely Stable Genius claimed that windmills caused cancer. Donald Trump's ridiculous link between cancer, wind turbines | PolitiFact Never fear, Donald the Magnificent will find a cure for cancer. Trump in Cincinnati: I'll end AIDS epidemic, cure childhood cancer
Donald expanded on this line of "thought" last week: "We’ll have an economy based on wind. I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much. I’ve studied it better than anybody. I know it’s very expensive. They’re made in China and Germany mostly — very few made here, almost none. But they’re manufactured tremendous — if you’re into this — tremendous fumes. Gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything. You talk about the carbon footprint — fumes are spewing into the air. Right? Spewing. Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air. It’s our air, their air, everything — right? So they make these things and then they put them up. "‘I never understood wind’: Trump goes on bizarre tirade against windmills - YouTube; Fact checking Trump's rant against windmill fumes
I have to admit that I have never heard anyone talk like the Duck. It is disheartening that his followers will listen to and cheer this nonsensical babble delivered usually non-stop over a 90 minute period.
But, I have never been in an insane asylum either.
Will his mental condition improve in his second term?
+++++++++
Donald plays "gutter ball" everyday. 'Liars!': Trump fires off post-Christmas tweetstorm over impeachment impasse
Just a few tweets from last Thursday:
Donald and Toilet Flushing:
Trump and toilets: A theory worth flushing | Charlotte Observer
Trump Accuses Supporters of Having to Flush 'Ten Times' Only an Extremely Stable Genius could have so much insight on toilet flushing. Trump Discusses Water, Dishwashers, Showers At Rally-YouTube
Trump attacks on wind turbines, low-flow toilets and LED lightbulbs set up key campaign clash with Democrats
Donald's Deep Knowledge about Windmills:
Previously, the Extremely Stable Genius claimed that windmills caused cancer. Donald Trump's ridiculous link between cancer, wind turbines | PolitiFact Never fear, Donald the Magnificent will find a cure for cancer. Trump in Cincinnati: I'll end AIDS epidemic, cure childhood cancer
Donald expanded on this line of "thought" last week: "We’ll have an economy based on wind. I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much. I’ve studied it better than anybody. I know it’s very expensive. They’re made in China and Germany mostly — very few made here, almost none. But they’re manufactured tremendous — if you’re into this — tremendous fumes. Gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything. You talk about the carbon footprint — fumes are spewing into the air. Right? Spewing. Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air. It’s our air, their air, everything — right? So they make these things and then they put them up. "‘I never understood wind’: Trump goes on bizarre tirade against windmills - YouTube; Fact checking Trump's rant against windmill fumes
I have to admit that I have never heard anyone talk like the Duck. It is disheartening that his followers will listen to and cheer this nonsensical babble delivered usually non-stop over a 90 minute period.
But, I have never been in an insane asylum either.
Will his mental condition improve in his second term?
+++++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
1. Small Ball Adds:
A. Added 50 TEF at $7.15:
Quote: TEF | Telefonica S.A. ADR Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: TEF $7.16 +$0.07 +0.99%
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Shareholders & Investors -Telefónica
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 TEF at (9/25/19 Post) I discussed the second quarter report in that post.
5 year Chart: Ongoing Bear Market
Dividend Information: Semi-annual
Last Ex Dividend: 12/17
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Current Position: 100 shares
Average cost per share = $7.25
Maximum Position: 150 shares + shares purchased with dividends (increased from 100 shares, with remaining shares bought in 10 share lots using the small ball purchase restriction)
Goal: 2+% annual average return on the shares + dividends
Morningstar still has a 5 star rating with a US$14 fair market value.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Revenues increased by 1.7% Y-O-Y which is the first increase in over two year.
Telefónica accelerated revenue growth and earned €1,344m in the first nine months of the year
B. Added 10 FENY at $16.03:
Quote: Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF
Sponsor's Website: FENY | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio: .084%
Top 10 Holdings as of 12/24/19:
Energy stocks, which have been in a bear market starting in 2014, have been moving up as of late.
Five year annual average total returns through 12/26/19:
FENY: -3.73%
Fidelity® MSCI Information Tech ETF (FTEC): +18.95%
SPY: +11.28%
The rise in crude oil's price starting in early October is probably the underlying reason. Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
2. Pares:
A. Added 50 TEF at $7.15:
Quote: TEF | Telefonica S.A. ADR Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: TEF $7.16 +$0.07 +0.99%
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Shareholders & Investors -Telefónica
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 TEF at (9/25/19 Post) I discussed the second quarter report in that post.
5 year Chart: Ongoing Bear Market
Dividend Information: Semi-annual
Last Ex Dividend: 12/17
Current Position: 100 shares
Average cost per share = $7.25
Maximum Position: 150 shares + shares purchased with dividends (increased from 100 shares, with remaining shares bought in 10 share lots using the small ball purchase restriction)
Goal: 2+% annual average return on the shares + dividends
Morningstar still has a 5 star rating with a US$14 fair market value.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Revenues increased by 1.7% Y-O-Y which is the first increase in over two year.
B. Added 10 FENY at $16.03:
Sponsor's Website: FENY | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio: .084%
Top 10 Holdings as of 12/24/19:
Energy stocks, which have been in a bear market starting in 2014, have been moving up as of late.
Five year annual average total returns through 12/26/19:
FENY: -3.73%
Fidelity® MSCI Information Tech ETF (FTEC): +18.95%
SPY: +11.28%
The rise in crude oil's price starting in early October is probably the underlying reason. Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
2. Pares:
A. Sold 100 IGR at $8.01:
Quote: IGR | CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund Overview
Closing Price Yesterday: IGR $7.97 +$0.08 +1.01%
IGR - CEF Connect
Sponsor's Website: CBRE Clarion
SEC Filings
CBRE CLARION GLOBAL REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND (last shareholder report, period ending on 6/30/19)
Holdings as of 9/30/19
Dividends: Monthly at $.05 per share (supported by ROC)
Profit Snapshot: $42.98
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $7.59
Item # 1 Bought 200 IGR at $7.58 (6/29/19 Post)
I also still own 100 shares in my IB account. Item # 1 Bought 100 IGR at $7.65 (8/3/19 Post) I do not reinvest dividend in that account.
B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81:
Quote: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)
Website: HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Key Markets HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Closing Price Yesterday: HTA $30.11 +$0.11 +0.37%
Profit Snapshot: $39.2
Part of 50 Share Lot Purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post)
Remaining Position: 40 Shares
Average Cost for Remaining Shares = $26.88
There was no change in the average cost per share number since the 10 shares was sold from one 50 lot purchase.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 per share ($1.26 annually)
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. (HTA) Dividend Date & History
The last quarterly dividend raise was from $.31 to $.315. I do not regard that kind of increase as dividend growth except in a literal and non-meaningful sense.
The annual dividend was at $1.15 per share in 2013 and at $1.25 in 2019, slightly better than a 1% annual average increase. Dividends – HTA I do not regard dividend increases at less than the annual average inflation rate to be dividend increases.
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/31/19
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. Announces its Fourth Quarter Dividend
Dividend Yield at TC of $26.88 = 4.6875%
The stock received a boost when a Stifel Nicolaus analyst upgraded to buy from hold on 11/26 and lifted its PT to $33 from $30. HTA was upgraded by JPM to overweight from neutral (12/18)
Last Earnings Report: I am not impressed with HTA's reports. AFFO growth per share is at best anemic which explains the low annual increases in the dividend.
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2019 Earnings
Nine Month Total Dividends 2019 = $190.853M
Nine Month FAD 2019 = $217.15M
Nine Month FAD 2018 =$216.968M
FAD = Funds Available for Distribution
Chart: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. Interactive Chart
C. Sold 10 K at $66.3:
Quote: Kellogg Co. (K)
K | Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: K $69.16 +$0.50 +0.73%
I will probably sell another 10 in January if the price exceeds $69.
Profit Snapshot: $108.58 (exclude 6/1/19 sell)
This 10 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades (7/20/19 Post)
I previously sold another 10 shares from that 50 share lot: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 K at $63.95 (8/10/19 Post) (profit snapshot = $85.08)
10 Year K Chart as of 12/6/19:
K Info as of 12/6/19:
Remaining Shares: 40
Average Cost Per Share = $55.25 (reduced from $55.29 prior to pare)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 ($2.28 annually), last raised by 1 cent effective for the 2019 third quarter.
Dividends – Kellogg Company
Last Ex dividend: 11/29/19
Dividend Reinvestment: No (likely reinvestment price is not viewed as attractive)
If I am not willing to buy shares at the current price, I am not going to reinvest the dividend.
The fact that I am paring is inconsistent with reinvesting the dividend.
Moreover, given zero commissions, I can take the dividends paid in cash and buy 1 or 2 shares when the stock falls into my buy range.
I am not likely to buy more shares at a price higher than my current average cost per share.
Dividend Yield at a $55.25 TC = 4.13%
Recent Earnings Report (Q/E 9/28/19): SEC Filed Press Release
Discussed at Kellogg shares rise after earnings and sales beat - MarketWatch
Broker Reports:
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage on 12/12 with a buy rating and a $74 price target.
On 12/20/19, BofA Global Research (ML) went from bearish to bullish raising its recommendation and increasing its price target to $75 from $53. I do not have access to this report.
The following reports are available to Charles Schwab customers:
Morningstar (10/29/19): 4 stars with a FV of $78 & "wide moat"
Credit Suisse (10/29/19): Neutral with a $60 PT (if this analyst is confident of his PT, then the recommendation now needs to be underperform)
S & P (10/29/19): 3 stars with a $70 PT
Argus (11/7/19): Buy with a $72 PT, raised from $70 (notes that the 13% return on invested capital exceeds Kellogg's weighted average cost of capital by 8 percentage points)
Item # 1 Bought 200 IGR at $7.58 (6/29/19 Post)
I also still own 100 shares in my IB account. Item # 1 Bought 100 IGR at $7.65 (8/3/19 Post) I do not reinvest dividend in that account.
B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81:
Quote: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)
Website: HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Key Markets HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Closing Price Yesterday: HTA $30.11 +$0.11 +0.37%
Profit Snapshot: $39.2
Part of 50 Share Lot Purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post)
Remaining Position: 40 Shares
Average Cost for Remaining Shares = $26.88
 |
| Snapshot Intra-Day on 12/6/19 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 per share ($1.26 annually)
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. (HTA) Dividend Date & History
The last quarterly dividend raise was from $.31 to $.315. I do not regard that kind of increase as dividend growth except in a literal and non-meaningful sense.
The annual dividend was at $1.15 per share in 2013 and at $1.25 in 2019, slightly better than a 1% annual average increase. Dividends – HTA I do not regard dividend increases at less than the annual average inflation rate to be dividend increases.
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/31/19
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. Announces its Fourth Quarter Dividend
Dividend Yield at TC of $26.88 = 4.6875%
The stock received a boost when a Stifel Nicolaus analyst upgraded to buy from hold on 11/26 and lifted its PT to $33 from $30. HTA was upgraded by JPM to overweight from neutral (12/18)
Last Earnings Report: I am not impressed with HTA's reports. AFFO growth per share is at best anemic which explains the low annual increases in the dividend.
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2019 Earnings
Nine Month Total Dividends 2019 = $190.853M
Nine Month FAD 2019 = $217.15M
Nine Month FAD 2018 =$216.968M
FAD = Funds Available for Distribution
Chart: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. Interactive Chart
C. Sold 10 K at $66.3:
Quote: Kellogg Co. (K)
K | Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: K $69.16 +$0.50 +0.73%
I will probably sell another 10 in January if the price exceeds $69.
Profit Snapshot: $108.58 (exclude 6/1/19 sell)
This 10 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades (7/20/19 Post)
I previously sold another 10 shares from that 50 share lot: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 K at $63.95 (8/10/19 Post) (profit snapshot = $85.08)
10 Year K Chart as of 12/6/19:
K Info as of 12/6/19:
Average Cost Per Share = $55.25 (reduced from $55.29 prior to pare)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 ($2.28 annually), last raised by 1 cent effective for the 2019 third quarter.
Last Ex dividend: 11/29/19
Dividend Reinvestment: No (likely reinvestment price is not viewed as attractive)
If I am not willing to buy shares at the current price, I am not going to reinvest the dividend.
The fact that I am paring is inconsistent with reinvesting the dividend.
Moreover, given zero commissions, I can take the dividends paid in cash and buy 1 or 2 shares when the stock falls into my buy range.
I am not likely to buy more shares at a price higher than my current average cost per share.
Dividend Yield at a $55.25 TC = 4.13%
Recent Earnings Report (Q/E 9/28/19): SEC Filed Press Release
Discussed at Kellogg shares rise after earnings and sales beat - MarketWatch
Broker Reports:
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage on 12/12 with a buy rating and a $74 price target.
On 12/20/19, BofA Global Research (ML) went from bearish to bullish raising its recommendation and increasing its price target to $75 from $53. I do not have access to this report.
The following reports are available to Charles Schwab customers:
Morningstar (10/29/19): 4 stars with a FV of $78 & "wide moat"
Credit Suisse (10/29/19): Neutral with a $60 PT (if this analyst is confident of his PT, then the recommendation now needs to be underperform)
S & P (10/29/19): 3 stars with a $70 PT
Argus (11/7/19): Buy with a $72 PT, raised from $70 (notes that the 13% return on invested capital exceeds Kellogg's weighted average cost of capital by 8 percentage points)
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
January 2020 Maturities:
SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
FM = First Mortgage Bond
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured
MI = Monthly Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills Bought at Auction
Secondary Market: Treasury purchases at less than par
3 Treasury Bills 2.532% YTM 1/2 (secondary market 2/19)
2 Treasury 3MO Bills 1.879%IR 1/2/20 (bought at auction)
2 Valley National 2% CDs 1/2 (3 month CDs)
3 BK Ozarks 2% CDs 1/2 Roth (3 month CDs)
2 Treasury Bills 1.926%YTM 1/2 (secondary market 9/19)
4 Citigroup 2.45% SU 1/10/20 (bought 1/18; 3/18; 7/18; 2/19)
10 Treasury 58 Day Bills 1.549%IR 1/14 (bought at auction)
Secondary Market: Treasury purchases at less than par
3 Treasury Bills 2.532% YTM 1/2 (secondary market 2/19)
2 Treasury 3MO Bills 1.879%IR 1/2/20 (bought at auction)
2 Valley National 2% CDs 1/2 (3 month CDs)
3 BK Ozarks 2% CDs 1/2 Roth (3 month CDs)
2 Treasury Bills 1.926%YTM 1/2 (secondary market 9/19)
4 Citigroup 2.45% SU 1/10/20 (bought 1/18; 3/18; 7/18; 2/19)
10 Treasury 58 Day Bills 1.549%IR 1/14 (bought at auction)
2 Ecolab 2.25% SU 1/15 (bought 3/18)
4 Broadcom 2.375% SU 1/15 (bought 9/18, 3/19)
2 Dr.Pepper/Snapple 2% SU 1/15 (bought 1/18)
2 Treasury 1.375% 1/15 (secondary market purchases)
2 BP 2.521% 1/15 (bought 2/18; 5/18)
2 BBT 2.45% SU 1/15 (bought 7/18)
6 Duke Florida 1.85% FM 1/15 (bought 1/18; 3/18, 4/19)
2 Arizona Public Service 2.2% SU 1/15 (bought 8/18)
2 Bank of China 1.95% CDs 1/17 (3 month CDs)
2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs 1/21 (7 month CDs)
10 Treasury 28 Day Bill 1.537% (bought at auction)
2 Bank of China 1.95% CDs 1/17 (3 month CDs)
2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs 1/21 (7 month CDs)
10 Treasury 28 Day Bill 1.537% (bought at auction)
2 J.P. Morgan 2.25% SU 1/23 (bought 8/18)
2 Treasury 1.918% YTM 1/23 (secondary market purchase)
2 Treasury 1.918% YTM 1/23 (secondary market purchase)
2 Morgan Stanley 2.65% SU 1/27 (bought 2/18; 5/18)
3 Customers BK 2.4% CDs 1/27 (7 month CDs)
3 Bangor BK 1.95% CDs 1/28 (3 month CDs)
2 BK China 1.85% CDs 1/29 ( 2 mo CDs)
3 Customers BK 2.4% CDs 1/27 (7 month CDs)
3 Bangor BK 1.95% CDs 1/28 (3 month CDs)
2 BK China 1.85% CDs 1/29 ( 2 mo CDs)
2 Cornerstone BK 2% CDs MI 1/30 (3 year CDs)
4 Wells Fargo 2.15% SU 1/30 (bought 1/18, 2/18, 7/18, 2/19)
2 Treasury Bills 1.907% YTM (secondary market 9/19)
2 Treasury Bills 1.907% YTM (secondary market 9/19)
1 Suntrust 2.25% SU 1/31 (bought 8/18)
5 City National 1.7% CDs 1/31 (one month CDs)
5 City National 1.7% CDs 1/31 (one month CDs)
2 Treasury 2% 1/31 (secondary market purchases)
$92K
*Early Redemptions include 4 Alexander REIT 2.75% SU maturing on 1/15/20 that were redeemed last August with a make whole payment.
I am no longer discussing short term treasury bill and CD purchases.
I am no longer discussing short term treasury bill and CD purchases.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I have published a new post:
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