CJREF, DUK, GCI, HSEPRC:CA, IBB, IEMG, IEUR, M, PPL, PFXF, PRPFX, SCHK

Economy:

ADP reported that 67,000 private sector jobs were added in November. ADP National Employment Report | November 2019; U.S. private sector job growth slows down sharply in November: ADP - MarketWatch

That ADP report is not consistent with the BLS estimate for November which showed a robust gain of 266,000 jobs, helped by the return of approximately 46K GM workers who were on strike in October. The consensus estimate was for +180K. Employment Situation Summary

Of the 266K jobs added in November, 254K were in the private sector. Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted Seasonal retail hiring will surge in November. The question is whether the seasonal adjustment for temporary seasonal workers is accurate.   

The BLS also revised its October number to 156K from 128K and its September number to 193K from 180K. 

The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in October. 

Annual wage growth was reported at 3.1%. 

The work week remained unchanged at 34.4 hours. 

The U-6 fell to 6.9% from 7%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization  

US Jobs Report November 2019: 266,000 payrolls added and 3.5% rate  ("The U.S. economy needs to create about 107,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, according to calculations from the Atlanta Federal Reserve.")

With the revisions to the September and October numbers, the 2019 average monthly through November currently stands at 180K, down from 223K in 2018. 

There is no way to reconcile the ADP and BLS numbers for November. 

One of the two reports is just way off or maybe even both which is a problem when relying on surveys using sampling techniques. 

The "confidence" rate in the BLS data is plus  or  minus 110,000 jobs. (see PDF page 10 under "reliability of estimates": The Employment Situation - November 2019,PDF version  

The BLS estimates are revised several times. There was a recent revision of employment data going back to February 1990. 

See discussion at The Big Four Economic Indicators: November Nonfarm Employment - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

Based on the +1.22% DJIA advance yesterday, the Stock Jocks accepted the BLS report as set in stone by God while the ADP report was dismissed as Fake News.  

When both reports start to turn negative, then I will worry. 

For now, all that I can say with some confidence is that the U.S. economy is continuing to grow sufficiently to create jobs in excess of what is necessary for new entrants into the labor force. Wage gains are decent but not spectacular. And, knowing the problems with conclusions drawn from samples, I did not become excited yesterday with the better than expected employment report. 

U.S. economy’s huge service sector slows again in November, ISM finds - MarketWatch (53.9% down from 54.7% in the prior month)

Mnuchin says U.S. economic growth will pick up significantly in coming quarters - MarketWatch Mnuchin bases his forecast on the tax cuts and the manufacturing slowdown directly connected to Boeings problems, which may be moving into a resolution phase, and the GM strike which is over. 

On the same day that Mnuchin represented that growth would pick up due to the tax cuts, the Organization for Economic Cooperation (OCED) issued a report finding that U.S. tax revenue as a proportion of GDP dropped the most compared to all other countries during 2018. US lost more tax revenue than any other developed country in 2018 due to Trump tax cuts, new report says  

During the trading day last Thursday, Trump represented to investors that the China trade negotiations were "moving along well."

US and China disagree on size of agriculture purchases, WSJ report says

Yesterday morning, Larry Kudlow represented that a trade deal with China was close and were in the "intense" phase. Kudlow calls U.S.-China deal 'close' as talks in 'intense' phase - MarketWatch Kudlow cautioned that Donald was willing to "walk away" if some conditions are not met. Kudlow says a trade deal with China is 'close' amid 'intense' talks

CNBC’s Cramer says U.S. ‘can walk away from the table’ in China trade talks after jobs report - MarketWatch


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Markets and Market Commentary:

Growth stocks still have room to run before reaching previous bubble valuations, Credit Suisse strategist says - MarketWatch

Bull markets often end with a euphoric 'blow-off top' rally That is the case with long term secular bull markets. The blow off top may last for an extended period and will be shaped as a parabolic spike occurring after a decade or so of SPX annual average total returns of around 15% or so. 

How many Goldman Sachs private equity clients are preparing for a recession? Every single one of them - MarketWatch

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Trump: 

Impeachment Report Says Trump Solicited Foreign Election Interference That is unquestionably the case but the crux is that he conditioned military aid on an investigation of the Bidens. 

Impeachment hearings live updates: Scholars called by Democrats testify that Trump’s conduct is grounds for removal from office

Impeachment report details contacts between Giuliani, White House, the Hill columnist John Solomon and Devin Nunes (the creators and/or disseminators of fact free conspiracy theories).

5 takeaways from the House Intelligence Committee’s impeachment report on Trump

GOP embraces a debunked Ukraine conspiracy to defend Trump from impeachment - The Washington Post Republicans will do just about anything to protect Donald including embracing Russian talking points about the Ukraine and furthering Russia's foreign policy goals at the expense of U.S. national security interests.

Opinion | Trump Is the Founders’ Worst Nightmare - The New York Times The architects of the U.S. Constitution were very concerned about a demagogue becoming President. How Hamilton Warned In The Federalist Papers Against Donald Trump – ThinkProgress; The Federalist Papers No. 1; Federalist Paper No 85; Electoral College Was Created to Stop Demagogues Like Trump | Time 

In Donald's case, the Electoral College provided him a path to the Presidency by narrowly winning the popular vote in 3 states while losing decisively the nationwide popular vote. The Election Came Down to 77,744 Votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (Updated)  

In Trumpworld, Donald won the popular vote since there were 4+ million illegal votes for Hillary and Donald did not receive one. Trump and Massive Voter Fraud Allegations (2/13/2017 Post), quoting Donald statements made in his interview with David Muir. TRANSCRIPT: ABC News Anchor David Muir Interviews President Trump - ABC News

Barr disputes key inspector general finding about FBI’s Russia investigation The inspector general is not a partisan hack like AG Barr who is Trump's puppet. Barr's DOJ is simply a reflection of Donald.  

Appeals court refuses to block House subpoena for Trump’s financial records The Supreme Court may review this decision and/or the appellate court decision allowing the NY AG access to those records. 

++++

Trump allies received hundreds of thousands of dollars under federal health contract - POLITICO  
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Nunes Misuse of Defamation Lawsuits:

Nunes Hits CNN With $435 Million Defamation Suit Over Its Ukraine Report | Talking Points Memo Nunes is upset that CNN and other media outlets reported Lev Parnas's allegation that Nunes met with Victor Shokin in Vienna. (e.g. Devin Nunes directly pushed for Biden Ukraine investigations, says Lev Parnas - Vox)

Prior to publication, CNN asked Nunes repeatedly to respond to the allegation, but he refused to make any comment. Giuliani associate willing to tell Congress that Nunes met with ex-Ukrainian official to get dirt on Biden - CNNPolitics Nunes told the Fox personality Sean Hannity that he did not respond to protest "fake news". 

I view the lawsuit as frivolous.  

The only way to stop Nunes from filing frivolous defamation lawsuits is to win one, then sue Nunes and his lawyer for malicious prosecution, winning that suit in a big way with a substantial punitive damage award, and then doing everything possible to collect the judgment. 

Nunes is bringing the lawsuits, as I previously discussed, in Virginia which has a weak anti-slap law. The Virginia Defamation Law Blog; Devin Nunes Demands Satirical Internet Cow Stop Making Fun Of Him… Or Else | Above the Law; Watchdog Slams Order Allowing Nunes to Sue Twitter in Virginia

Phone records link Giuliani associate Lev Parnas to Republican Congressman Devin Nunes - CBS News Nunes claims that he may have talked to Parnas but will need to go through his phone records. Devin Nunes tells Hannity 'it's possible' he called Lev Parnas, Giuliani's indicted associate; Devin Nunes Tries to Explain Away His Lev Parnas and Rudy Giuliani Calls to Sean Hannity The calls with Giuliani were held to exchange jokes as I understand his claim now. 

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All trades are commission free unless otherwise noted. 

I am shifting proceeds received from small stock ETF liquidations into individual stock purchases. 

While I view those purchases as trades, stocks are selected in part based on a willingness to hold longer term at the prices paid for them.   

1. Bought 100 PPL at $33.9: 

Quote: PPL Corp. 

Closing Price Yesterday: PPL $34.37 +$0.05 +0.15% 

PPL Corp. Analyst Estimates 

2020: $2.52 as of 12/1/19 

P.E. at $2.52 and $33.9 = 13.45

PPL is a holding company that owns Louisville Gas & Electric, Kentucky Utilities, PPL Electric Utilities (about 1.4M customers in central and western Pennsylvania) and Western Power Distribution (the U.K.'s largest distribution network serving 7.9M customers). 

Home - PPL Corporation

Only the two Kentucky utilities own generation.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 per share or $1.64 annually

PPL Corporation Common Stock (PPL) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Dividend Yield at $33.9 = 4.84%

Next Ex Dividend: 12/9/19

PPL 5 Year Chart: Roller Coster Going Nowhere 

After bottoming near $26 in June 2018, the dominant trend has been up, but the price is about where it was 5 years ago after the rally off the June 2018 low. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): PPL Corporation Reports Third-Quarter 2019 Earnings

GAAP Earnings: $475M or $.65 per share, up from $.62 Q/E 9/30/18

2019 Guidance: E.P.S. $2.35 to $2.45

The "company reaffirmed its expectation of 5% to 6% compound annual earnings growth per share through 2020 based on its original 2018 earnings forecast midpoint of $2.30 per share. In addition, PPL maintained its 2021 earnings forecast range of $2.50 to $2.80 per share." 

The major  knock on this company IMO is its U.K. distribution business which is a major part of PPL's operations. 

In a 11/5 Morningstar report, the analyst claimed that the U.K. regulators recently "suggested just 4% rates of return of gas distribution, gas transmission and electricity transmission". The S & P analyst believes this concern is overblown but there will not be any clarity on the issue either until 2021. 

If a 4% rate of return was applied to electricity distribution, then the return on investment for this business would become unattractive.  

Another problem, besides possible punitive regulation in the U.K., is the weakness in the British Pound. The Morningstar analyst claims that a 10% movement in the currency will impact the fair value estimate by $3.

Possible Merger with Avangrid: 

There have been reports that PPL is or has been in merger discussions with Avangrid Inc. (AGR). 

Avangrid has two primary businesses. "Avangrid Networks owns eight electric and natural gas utilities, serving more than 3.3 million customers in New York and New England. Avangrid Renewables owns and operates a portfolio of renewable energy generation facilities across the United States." 

AVANGRID Reports Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Results; 

ServiceMap; 

Avangrid operating companies 

Avangrid Renewables is part of  of the IBERDROLA Group, "one of the largest renewable asset bases of any company in the world, with more than 14,000 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy spread across a dozen countries." Avangrid Renewables "has more than $10 billion of operating assets totaling more than 6,000 MW of owned and controlled wind and solar generation in more than 20 states."About Us

The merger makes sense to me provided the terms make sense. I have not seen any reports discussing this possible merger since 11/5/19. PPL remains tight-lipped on possible merger with Avangrid - The Morning Call  

Broker Reports:

Morningstar (11/5/19): 2 stars with a $33.31 fair value

Argus (10/4/19): Buy with a $34 PT

S & P (11/12/19): 5 stars with a $37 PT

Goal: Low expectations; would define a victory as a 7+% total return, mostly derived from the dividend.  

2. Small Ball Adds: 

A. Bought 2 DUK at $86.55: 

Quote: Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)

Closing Price Yesterday: DUK $89.76 +$0.47 +0.53% 

DUK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings 

Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 2 DUK at $87.94 and 3 at $87.65 (11/16/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Bought 10 DUK at $89.4 (9/1/19 Post)

With the last 2 share purchase, the average cost per share was reduced from $88.85 to $88.58.

I discussed the last earnings report in the 11/16 pots linked above.

Dividend: Quarterly at $.945 per share ($3.79 annually), raised from $.927 effective for the 2019 third quarter payment.

Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/14

Dividend Yield at TC =  4.28%

A recent significant stock offering has put downward pressure on the stock price. Prospectus

B. Bought 20 GCI at $6.27 and 10 at $6.15:

                            

Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy

Major Bear Market-Waterfall stock chart

Some of the recent decline may be attributable to year end tax loss selling.  

Closing Price Yesterday: GCI $6.02 -$0.15 -2.43%

Current Position: 110 shares

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes as a means to average down

Average Cost per share = $6.96 

Since my last discussion, New Media completed its acquisition of Gannett (GCI)  and changed its name to Gannett and kept the Gannett stock symbol. My prior purchases were NEWM shares.  

Prior Discussions: Item # 3.B. Added 10 NEWM at $6.9; 10 at $6.6 and 10 at $6.36   (11/16/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 NEWM at $7.6 (11/9/19)

Dividend: NEWM's dividend of $.38 be share will be cut in half to $.19 based on representations made by that company in merger related documents. It remains to be seen how long the dividend will be maintained at that level. 

Assuming no change, the dividend yield at a $6.96 per share total cost is 10.92%.  

As I discussed earlier, the Stock Jocks do not believe in the projections made by NEWM's management before the merger; which judgment is reflected in the persistent price decline since the merger was announced. Pessimism about the future of print media is justified, but probably overdone IMO at GCI's current price.  

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule

Maximum Position: Yet to be determined

C. Added 10 PFXF at $19.8: 

Quote: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF

Closing Price Yesterday: PFXF $19.85 $0.01 +0.05% 

Current Position: 110 Shares

I have nothing to add to my recent discussion: Item # 1: Bought 100 PFXF at $20.06  (12/4/19 Post)

D. Added $100 to PRPFX at $39.66: 

Quote: Permanent Portfolio Overview

Sponsor's Website: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds

SEC Filings

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Period ending 7/31/19

Last Substantive Discussions: Item # 4 (7/10/19 Post); Item # 2.B. (12/21/17 Post)

I just received the annual dividend:  

When a fund makes only an annual dividend payment, or an unusually large year end payment, I will frequently buy additional shares after the ex dividend date. 

PRPFX Realized Gains to Date: $898.7 + dividends (snapshots at Item # 4.C. and Item # 2.B)

PRPFX is my Financial Armageddon mutual fund given its allocations to U.S. treasuries, gold and silver bullion, high quality corporate bonds, real estate companies, and Swiss government bonds. 

3. Eliminations and Pares: 

A.  Eliminated CJREF Again: Sold 100 at $4.35:

Quote: Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV (U.S. Pink Sheets)

Closing Price Yesterday: CJREF $4.2533 +$0.0933 +2.24% 

Website: Corus Entertainment

Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy

Dividends: Quarterly at C$.06 per share with a 12/17 ex dividend date

Profit Snapshot: +$61.58 

Item # 2 Bought Back 100 CJREF at $3.73-Commission Free Trade (11/6/19 Post) 

The long term chart suggests that staying around too long will not be productive.  

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 5.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35 (10/16/19 Post)

YTD Trading Profits: +$138.99

B. Eliminated IBB-Sold 5 at +$114.28: 

Quote: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: Ishares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF | IBB

Profit Snapshot:  $72.05 (11/21 transaction only) 

Item # 4.B. Bought 2 IBB at $99.18 and 1 at $96.86(10/11/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 IBB at $103.86 (4/6/19 Post)

5 Year Chart

Morningstar Rating at 3 Stars

C. Eliminated M-Sold 30 at $15.31: 

Quote: Macy's Inc.
M | Macy's Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Closing Price Yesterday: M $15.15 +$0.04 +0.26% 

Profit Snapshot: $26.84  (received 1 dividend payment) 

I describe my common stock investment style as contrarian value. Or, another more descriptive summary is "bottom fisher and dumpster diver". 

This approach will lead me into stocks that are out-of-favor, frequently having charts that scream stay away. 

I was willing to nibble in Macy's common stock after selling one of its bonds. 

The last earnings report and the data breach caused me to exit the stock position. My reaction to both events was negative. The Stock Jocks took the negative developments in stride. I did not.      

Macy’s, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2019 Earnings; UPDATE: Macy's shares slide after sales miss and lowered guidance as weather and soft tourism weigh - MarketWatch 

Macy's hack: Customer data stolen after retailer's online store was hacked - CBS News

I may consider another Lottery Ticket type buy in the $12 to $13 range.  

D. Eliminated IEMG-Sold 15 at $51.46:  

Quote: iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Profit Snapshot: +$20.69 

Item # 5.B. Added 3 IEMG at $47.37 (8/28/19 Post);  Item # 4.B. Added 2 IEMG at $49.38  (6/8/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 10 IEMG at $51.04 (4/7/19 Post)
Sponsor's website: iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Expense Ratio: .14% 

E. Eliminated IEUR-Sold 14 at  at $47.82: 

Quote: iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$31.69

Item # 5D. Bought 2 IEUR at $43.15 (8/28/19 Post); Item # 1.B. Bought 2 IEUR at $45(6/2/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Bought 10 IEUR at $46.16 (5/22/19 Post)

Sponsor's Website: iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF | IEUR

Expense Ratio: .1%

F. Eliminated SCHK-Sold 10 at $30.56: 

Quote: Schwab 1000 Index ETF (SCHK)

Profit Snapshot: $28.05

Item # 3.C. Bought 10 SCHK at $27.76 (4/7/19 Post) Sponsor's Website: SCHK - Schwab 1000 Index® ETF

Expense Ratio: .05%

4. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: 

A. Bought 50 HSEPRC:CA at C$16.57: 

Quote: Husky Energy Inc. 4.5% Cumulative Pfd. Series 3 Overview

Par Value: C$25

Issuer: Husky Energy Inc. (Canada: Toronto)

Prospectus Excerpt: 

Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/19 This payment was under the fixed coupon rate of 4.5%. I bought on 11/27. 

Reset Coupon: 4.636% ("sum of the Government of Canada five-year bond yield of 1.506% plus 3.13%", Husky Energy Provides Series 3 Preferred Shares Conversion Privilege Notice, Series 3 and Series 4 Preferred Shares Dividend Rate Notice)

The 4.636% coupon will remain in effect to, but excluding, 12/31/2024.

Current Yield at 4.636% Coupon and C$16.57 Price = 6.9946%

Resets: Starting on 12/31/19 and for five years thereafter, the coupon will reset at a 3.13% spread to the five year Canadian bond yield unless the issuer's exercises its optional redemption right on the reset date. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.