Wednesday, December 18, 2019

BIF, EAF, GNLPRB, NWHUF, PTLC, REET, RDSB, SRET, VT




More borrowers are getting rejected for auto loans - MarketWatch

UK government to block any delay to post-Brexit deadline, pound falls While Brexit is now a certainty, I mentioned in a previous post that the U.K. and the EU still needed to work out a post-Brexit trade deal. The deadline for negotiating that deal is in December 2020. There are serious questions whether that is sufficient time to negotiate and approve a new trade deal. Johnson's action to make the deadline a hard one that can not be extended increases the odds that no trade deal will be finalized which would be disruptive and potentially a trigger for a recession in Europe or worsening one already in progress. The deadline does have the benefit of focusing everyone's attention on finalizing a trade deal without a lot of dithering back and forth lasting years.   

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Markets and Market Commentary


Goldman has a worry could hit earnings, cause volatility in 2020 (Stock buybacks declined by 15% in 2019)  


Jernigan Capital, Inc. Announces Agreement to Internalize External Manager I view the terms of the internalization agreement as fair. As expected, the quarterly dividend will be cut from $.35 to $.23 which is slightly more than I expected. 
The Internalization Of Jernigan Capital - Jernigan Capital, Inc. (NYSE:JCAP) | Seeking Alpha


Closing Price Yesterday: JCAP $18.77  +$1.18  +6.71%: Jernigan Capital 


Unilever warns on underlying sales growth for 2019 - MarketWatch


Closing Price Yesterday: UN $57.08 -$4.26 -6.94% 


I have sold out of my Unilever position and have been accumulating a small ball position in JCAP. 


General Mills (GIS) earnings Q2 2020 (Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.95 vs. $.88 consensus) I have pared my GIS position down to 27+ shares with an average cost per share of $39.39. 

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Trump

Fact Checker: President Trump has made 15,413 false or misleading claims over 1,055 days 

Those are just the publicly made statements. It is impossible for me to identify a more dishonest and corrupt person who is publicly known. 


And, a majority of republicans view him as honest, a truth teller who "tells it like it is".  Fact checkers are just trying to put wombs in their brains. 

We can only hope that the republican Supreme Court Justice will step back from their ideological predilections and find that Donald's tax records have to be furnished in response to lawful subpoenas. Supreme Court will hear three cases over Trump's financial records I would not count on it. The trend is toward authoritarianism in the republican party and among republican jurists.    
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All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted. 


1. Small Ball Purchases


A. Bought 10 RDSB at $57.45




Quote: RDS.B | Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADR B Overview | MarketWatch

RDS.B Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Closing Price Yesterday: RDS-B $59.03 +$0.69 +1.18% 


RDSb - Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) Key Developments | Reuters


Information on shares | Shell Global


Each ADR share is equal to two ordinary shares.


The RDSB ordinary shares are priced in British pence. The U.K. does not withhold a dividend tax.


My last round-trips were discussed in these posts: Item # 2 Eliminated Royal Dutch After Profit Warning-Sold: 52+ RDS/A at $70.85 and 51+RDS/A at $70.83 (1/28/14 Post)(profit snapshots = $325.89)-Item # 1 Bought 50 RDS/A at $68.93 (February 2013)Item # 1 Bought 50 RDS/A at $68.93 (February 2013)  


Large vertically integrated energy companies have been in a bear market since the 2014 summer. 


The dividends paid by RDSA ordinary shares are viewed as being sourced in the Netherlands. 


When I last owned those shares, the dividend was exempt from the Netherlands withholding tax since I was reinvesting the dividend. The taxation rules may change for this share class. I did not bother to research the issue other than reading this article. Want To Maximize Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Income? Here's What You Buy The RDSA and RDSB shares were trading at the same price so I just went with the Class B shares (RDSB) this time.    


Dividend: Quarterly, currently at $.94 per share ($3.76 annually)


RDS.B Dividend History 


Last Ex Dividend: 11/14/19


Dividend Yield at $57.45 = 6.45%


Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): This report indicates why large integrated energy companies are in a bear market.  


Net Earnings: $4.767B or $1.18 per ADR, down from $5.624B or $1.36 per ADR in the 2018 third quarter, due to lower realized oil, natural gas, and LNG prices as well as weaker margins in chemicals and refining 



SEC Filed Document

10 Year Chart




I would characterize this chart as reflecting a long term secular bear market which has cyclical bear and bull cycles that are frequently found in long term bear markets. The current price is close to the price prevailing 10 years ago. A decent total return could only be realized by buying the dips and selling the rips.  


10 Year Annual Average Total Return Through 12/14/19 = 5.51%  ( the S & P 500 ETF SPY = 13.23%)


Maximum Position: 50 shares 


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (best to be cautious IMO when the stock sector is in a long term bear market of unknown duration and depth). 


Brokerage Reports


Morningstar (10/31/19): 4 stars with a FV of US$78


Argus (11/6/19):  Buy with a $80 PT  


S & P (11/6/19): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $60


B. Bought 25 EAF at $11.72




Quote: GrafTech International Ltd.

EAF | GrafTech International Ltd. Analyst Estimates (as of 12/17/19)
2019: $2.52
2020: $2.29

Closing Price Yesterday: EAF $11.98 -$0.19 -1.56% 


EAF Chart Since IPO



This purchase simply replaces the 25 share lot that was sold at $14.48 and discussed in Item # 2.C. below. I sold that lot on the ex dividend date. 

I discussed the last earnings report in Item 2.A. 


GrafTech Reports Third Quarter 2019 ResultsGrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) CEO David Rintoul on Q3 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha  


Subsequent to this last elimination, the company announced that its controlling shareholder sold 11.18M shares in a block trade. GrafTech bought $250M from the controlling shareholder at the same price as that block trade. GrafTech Announces Secondary Block Trade by Stockholder and Share Buyback The price has not yet been disclosed, but this announcement caused the stock to slide. EAF Historical Prices 

In a SEC filing, GrafTech made the following claim about how its $250M would impact E.P.S. if it had been made on 12/31/2918: "Assuming the same December 31, 2018 share repurchase date, our basic and diluted earnings per share would have increased by $0.14 per share for the nine-months ended September 30, 2019." Document


I would assume that EAF share buyback will improve the E.P.S. numbers starting with the current quarter. 


The problem IMO is that the foregoing indicates that a large owner may want to sell even more shares, driving the price down when and if another decision is made to unload. 


The controlling shareholder is Brookfield Asset Management ("BAM") that owned 79% of the outstanding stock as of 9/29/19. EAF Owners  


GrafTech was taken private by BAM (8/17/15) when the company was in the dumpster (see summary at page 8) In 2018, BAM took the company public with an IPO, selling 35M of its shares plus the standard greenshoe option granted to the underwriters of up to 5.25M. Prospectus (offering price at $15) 


Yesterday's decline was linked to BMO downgrading its rating to market perform from outperform and reducing its price target from $16 to $14. I do not have access to that report. 


I only have access to a Credit Suisse analyst report for this company. In a 11/7 report, CS rated the stock as outperform with a $18 price target. 


2018 Annual Report


Dividend: Quarterly at $.085 per share ($.34 per share annually). I did hold the last 25 share lot long enough to receive the quarterly dividend.


Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/27/19


GrafTech Announces Fourth Quarter 2019 Cash Dividend


GrafTech International Ltd. Common Stock (EAF) Dividend History | Nasdaq


Dividend Yield at TC per share = 2.9%


I do not view it likely that the company will raise the dividend anytime soon.


Maximum Position: 100 Shares


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Small Ball Rules


C. Added 10 SRET at $15.11:




I added to a pre-existing position in my Fidelity taxable account where I am reinvesting the monthly dividends: Item # 1.B. Bought 50 SRET at $14.8 Used Commission Free Trade (5/17/18 Post)


Quote: Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF Overview


Closing Price Yesterday: SRET $15.23 +$0.06 +0.40% 


Sponsor's Website: SuperDividend® REIT ETF


Last Eliminations: Item # 1.D. Eliminated SRET in Vanguard Taxable Account: Sold 112 at $15.28  (10/30/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.38);  Item # 1. B. Sold 50 SRET at $14.79-In A Roth IRA Account-Commission Free for Vanguard customers (4/3/19 Post)(profit snapshot $45.49)


Last Substantive Buy DiscussionItem # 2. Bought 100 SRET at $14.81 and 10 at $14.35 (8/7/19 Post)


Current Position: 66+ shares


Average Cost Per Share = $14.86


Dividends: Monthly




Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/30/19


Dividend Yield at a TC of $14.86 per share: 8.12% (assumes the current penny rate holds for 12 months)


Goal: Harvest the monthly dividend and exit the position at any profit


2. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:


A. Sold 50 CODIPRB at $25.47 and Bought 50 GNLPRB at $24.88:




Profit Snapshot CODIPRB: $25.35




Item # 1 Bought 50 CODIPRB at $24.96 (11/23/19 Post)


When I discussed the CODIPRB purchase, I was already having second thoughts solely due the K-1 tax reporting issue. I finally decided that I did not want to fool with that problem so I basically swapped CODIPRB for GNLPRB whose ordinary dividends will be reported on a 1099.


GNLPRB is an equity REIT preferred stock issued by the externally managed Global Net Lease (GNL). I recently discussed paring my common stock position in this REIT: Item # 2.B. Pared GNL-Sold Highest Cost 50 Shares at $20.05 (12/11/19 Post) As noted in that post, I am concerned that the company will cut its common share dividend.


GNLPRB Information: IPO in November 2019


Prospectus 

Issuer: Global Net Lease Inc.
Issuer Issuer SEC Filings

Coupon: 6.875% 


Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified (pass through entity) 


The first dividend will be for  "$0.1671 per share, and will represent an accrual for less than a full quarter, covering the period from November 26, 2019 to December 31, 2019."


Dividend Yield at a TC of  $24.88: 6.91


Capital Structure: Equity Preferred, senior only to common stock in the capital structure


Par Value: $25


Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 11/26/24


Stopper Clause: Yes



The stopper clause enforces the preferred stock's superior claim over cash compared to the common stock.

Unlike the common stock dividend which can be cut, the preferred stock dividend can not be cut or eliminated short of a bankruptcy.


The preferred stock dividend can be deferred but the deferral can occur only after the issuer eliminates the cash dividend for the common stock owners and further refrains from using cash to buy common stock during a preferred stock dividend deferral period.


Since the preferred stock dividend is cumulative and has a superior claim to cash vs. the common stock, all of the deferred preferred stock dividends would have to be paid in full before resuming a cash dividend on the common stock.


The price of a preferred stock will be interest rate and credit risk sensitive.


During the Near Depression period and its immediate aftermath, equity preferred stocks were crushed in price, with most falling more than 50% discounts to their $25 par values. That had nothing to do with interest rate risks but to fears about credit risk that were magnified by the preferred stock's low status in the capital structure. Seeing many preferred stocks go to a zero value serves to fan the flames,


A garden variety recession will also create credit quality concerns, but the magnitude will most likely vary among issuers rather than being uniform, which was the case in 2008-2009.


A spike in interest rates will also cause the price to go down.


This GNLPRB currently has a about a 5% spread to the 10 year treasury yield. I would take that spread as close to a benchmark spread for this security, just as a general rule of thumb.


So, if the 10 year treasury yield went from 1.82% to 3.82%, GNLPRB would have to down sufficiently in price that its yield would increase from 6.9% to 8.82%. I would anticipate a price in that hypothetical somewhere between $19 to $20. This is not a precise range but more of a ballpark calculation. That range under that interest rate scenario could also go up or down based on actual or perceived changes in credit risk.


3. Small Ball Eliminations

I am continuing the process of eliminating small stock ETF positions and using the proceeds to buy individual stocks. 

A. Eliminated PTLC-Sold 30 at $32.85 (a Roth IRA Account)

Quote: PTLC | Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF Overview | MarketWatch


Profit Snapshot: $45.28



Item # 1.A. Bought 30 PTLC at $31.34 (10/23/18 Post) 

Sponsor's Website: PTLC | Pacer ETFs

B. Eliminated REET-Sold 15 at $28.39:



Quote: REET | iShares Global REIT ETF Overview


Item # 4.B. Added 5 REET at $26.56 (6/29/19 Post)Item # 5 Bought 10 REET at $27.16 (6/19/19 Post) 


Profit Snapshot: +$21.53




Sponsor's Website: iShares Global REIT ETF | REET


Expense Ratio: .14% 

C. Eliminated EAF-Sold 25 at $14.48



Quote: GrafTech International Ltd. - Home


As discussed above, I bought back this lot at $11.72 yesterday.


Profit Snapshot: +$64.19




Item # 2.B. Bought 25 EAF in 3 Installments on 11/7/19 


Prior Round-Trip: Item # 2.A. Sold 110 EAF at $13.48 (11/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot =  $61.69)


2019 EAF Trading Profits (tiny lots) = $125.38


D. Eliminated VT-Sold 5 at $79.01 (Roth IRA):



Quote: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$29.54




Item # 3.B. Bought 5 VT at $73.1 (4/7/19 Post) 
Sponsor's Webpage: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF


Expense Ratio: .09%


E. Eliminated BIF-Sold 156+ at $11.42




Quote: Boulder Growth & Income Fund Inc. (BIF)


BIF Boulder Growth & Income-CEF Connect


Profit Snapshot: $127.2 (ex 11/1 sell) 




Last Round-Trips: Item # 3.C. Sold 50 BIF at $11.28 (11/13/19 Post)Item # 3.B. Eliminated BIF: Sold 116+ (2/16/17 Post)( profit snapshot = $137.25, with snapshots of prior 2013 and 2016 round-trips realizing a $284.19 profit).


Sponsor's Website: Boulder Funds - Home


BIF Trading Profit to Date = $413.02


BIF SEC Filings


SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the period ending 5/31/19


Holdings as of 8/31/19 


4. Canadian REITs

A. Bought 100 NWHUF at $9.09



Quotes: 

USD Priced Grey Market: NWHUF

CAD Priced Toronto: NWH-UN.TO

Website: NorthWest Healthcare Properties


Property Map


"NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX: NWH.UN) (NorthWest) is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust established under the laws of the Province of Ontario. The REIT provides investors with access to a portfolio of high quality international healthcare real estate infrastructure comprised of interests in a diversified portfolio of 171 income-producing properties and 14 million square feet of gross leasable area located throughout major markets in Canada, Brazil, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. The REIT's portfolio of medical office buildings, clinics, and hospitals is characterized by long term indexed leases and stable occupancies."


I currently own 500 units priced in CADs and traded in Toronto. 


NWHUF is the USD priced ordinary shares (not an ADR) that trade on the dark U.S. Grey Market. My best broker for buying on the Grey Market is Charles Schwab who does not charge a commission and provides quotes for the CAD price ordinary shares converted into USDs. Some brokers will charge a fee for placing these trades which sometimes can reach $50. 


This stock declined some in response to a significant unit offering. 


Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Announces Increase to Previously Announced Equity Financing from $225 Million to $250 Million ("The REIT intends to use the net proceeds of the Offering to repay $215 million of corporate debt with a weighted average interest rate of approximately 6.4% and a weighted average term to maturity of approximately three years, as well as to expand its European platform through the acquisition of three properties (two clinics in Germany and one medical office building in the Netherlands) (the “Acquisition Properties”) for a combined purchase price of approximately $68.5 million at a weighted average stabilized capitalization rate of approximately 5.8%.")


REITs in Canada sell trust "units" rather than "common shares". 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$9.67 (1/20/19 Post)Item #1.A  Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$10.58 -C$1 IB Commission (3/12/18 Post)

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1. A. Sold 1000 at C$10.68 (/7/31/17)(profit after conversion into USDs = $606.31); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 NWHUF at US$8.79  (8/21/17 Post)


Dividend: Monthly at C$.06667 or C$.8 per unit annually  


Yield: The yield for NWHUF will depend on several factors: (1) the penny rate in CADs; (2) the conversion rate into USDs for each payment; and (3) the amount of the Canadian withholding tax that can be recovered through a foreign tax credit.


A few years ago, I tested to see whether the distribution made by a Canadian REIT would be subject to Canada's 15% withholding tax when the stock is held in a U.S. citizens retirement account. I found that Canada will withhold the tax for REITs even when the distribution is paid into a retirement account, which makes sense since the REIT avoids taxation at the corporate level. 


It has been my experience that there no Canadian withholding tax when a "dividend" is paid by a regular Canadian corporation (e.g. TD) into a U.S. citizen's retirement account. 


Last Earnings Report


Investor Presentation November 2019


5. Early Corporate Bond Redemptions:


I lost to an issuer early redemption 4 Harris Corporation 2.7% SU bonds maturing on 4/7/20. The issuer had to pay a $3.05 per bond make whole premium to exercise its early redemption option.


Profit = $29.98





This is occurring regularly now.

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

1 comment:

  1. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/12/aresf-des-jri-ofs-sbra-two.html

    ReplyDelete