Economy:
The government revised its 2nd quarter real GDP estimate to a -31.7 annualized decline from -32.9%. Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
New initial unemployment claims for the week ending 8/22 was reported at 1,006,000. News Release
Personal income July 2020 Consumer spending rose 1.9% in July. I would emphasize that the additional $600 per week in unemployment benefits expired in July.
Personal income was boosted by federal stimulus payments including the one time checks.
Personal Income and Outlays, July 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Fed unanimously adopts new strategy, widely seen as leading to easier policy - MarketWatch; Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer Fed monetary policy was already extremely easy and accommodative. The FED will now allow inflation to go over 2% without hiking rates. Since the inflation rate is not likely to go over a 2% annual rate this year or next year, the FED is basically telegraphing that it will continue its Jihad Against the Savings Class for at least two more years. This FED policy will eventually set the stage for inflation to become both embedded and problematic but that is not yet on the horizon.
Consumer confidence tumbles to new pandemic low after summer viral outbreak - MarketWatch
The government revised its 2nd quarter real GDP estimate to a -31.7 annualized decline from -32.9%. Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Personal income July 2020 Consumer spending rose 1.9% in July. I would emphasize that the additional $600 per week in unemployment benefits expired in July.
Personal Income and Outlays, July 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Fed unanimously adopts new strategy, widely seen as leading to easier policy - MarketWatch; Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer Fed monetary policy was already extremely easy and accommodative. The FED will now allow inflation to go over 2% without hiking rates. Since the inflation rate is not likely to go over a 2% annual rate this year or next year, the FED is basically telegraphing that it will continue its Jihad Against the Savings Class for at least two more years. This FED policy will eventually set the stage for inflation to become both embedded and problematic but that is not yet on the horizon.
Consumer confidence tumbles to new pandemic low after summer viral outbreak - MarketWatch
Majority of states approved for extra $300 in unemployment insurance I would emphasize that Donald is funding those payments out of FEMA's cash.
Home prices continued to rise in June, Case-Shiller index finds — as Americans face a growing affordability crunch - MarketWatch The Schiller 20 metropolitan home price index was up 3.6% Y-O-Y in June.
The U.S. dollar is struggling. That should give a shot in the arm to global growth, Goldman Sachs says - MarketWatch
The U.S. dollar is struggling. That should give a shot in the arm to global growth, Goldman Sachs says - MarketWatch
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 8/28/20:
TTM GAAP = 36.19
Estimated Forward 12 month non-GAAP = 26.74
P/E & Yields
Shiller P/E Ratio: 32.28 as of 8/28/20
Shiller PE Ratio
The Shiller P/E is higher now than it was when the market crashed in 1929.
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 8/28/20:
TTM GAAP = 36.19
Estimated Forward 12 month non-GAAP = 26.74
P/E & Yields
Shiller P/E Ratio: 32.28 as of 8/28/20
Shiller PE Ratio
The Shiller P/E is higher now than it was when the market crashed in 1929.
Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell added to Dow in major shake-up to the average Pfizer, Exxon and Raytheon will be replaced by those stocks.
Exxon Mobil replaced by a software stock after 92 years in the Dow is a 'sign of the times'
These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ stocks have been raising their dividends for decades, and there have been no dividend cuts during the pandemic - MarketWatch I own several of those stocks including an ETF that owns them. ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) I would caution that those stocks, even the few who have not participated at all in the market's parabolic move up, will unlikely buck a market correction, though their percentage declines may be less than the high flyers that have taken the market up since March.
Interest Rates Will Remain Low for Years. These High-Quality Stocks Might Offer the Income You Need. - Barron's
A ‘powerful force’ will determine what happens next in the stock market, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts - MarketWatch I would classify Siegel as being close to a perma bull.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates August 2020: Uptrend in longer term rates
2020 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
While many possible reasons may explain the uptick in longer term rates, my favorite one is oversupply through new issuances.
Real Treasury Yield Curve Rates: TIPS
2020 Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates
30 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 8.28/20: 1.24% (the average annual CPI rate predicted over the next 30 years)
Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ stocks have been raising their dividends for decades, and there have been no dividend cuts during the pandemic - MarketWatch I own several of those stocks including an ETF that owns them. ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) I would caution that those stocks, even the few who have not participated at all in the market's parabolic move up, will unlikely buck a market correction, though their percentage declines may be less than the high flyers that have taken the market up since March.
Interest Rates Will Remain Low for Years. These High-Quality Stocks Might Offer the Income You Need. - Barron's
A ‘powerful force’ will determine what happens next in the stock market, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts - MarketWatch I would classify Siegel as being close to a perma bull.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates August 2020: Uptrend in longer term rates
While many possible reasons may explain the uptick in longer term rates, my favorite one is oversupply through new issuances.
Real Treasury Yield Curve Rates: TIPS
30 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 8.28/20: 1.24% (the average annual CPI rate predicted over the next 30 years)
Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
++++++
Trump:
I did not watch the conventions. I knew without watching that Trump and his supporters would be lying non-stop throughout the RNC convention. I have a low tolerance level for liars.
The White House makes it clear that it sees chaos in the streets as politically useful - The Washington Post That was true for Nixon in 1968.
In Trump's America, it is a good thing that police shot a black man in the back seven times and that a young white follower of Trump killed two protestors and wounded another last week. Donald and his party hope to gain votes from those acts. Kellyanne Conway Says Kenosha Violence Is 'Better' For Trump-Will Help His Reelection Chances
Trump and his party will only make matters worse by increasing the level of violent confrontations IMO.
Kenosha Suspect Kyle Rittenhouse Was Front Row At Trump Rally; Ann Coulter Ripped for Kyle Rittenhouse for President Tweet; Kyle Rittenhouse, Kenosha, and the Sheepdog Mentality - The Atlantic; Tracking Kyle Rittenhouse in the Fatal Kenosha Shootings - The New York Times Fox "news" has already elevated Rittenhouse to a national hero status.
Trump's sister assailed him for 'lying,' 'phoniness,' 'cruelty,' and having 'no principles,' secretly recorded audio reveals
Trump's sister Maryanne Trump Barry calls him a 'liar' in recordings: USA Today
Will Maryanne Trump observations about her brother carry any weight with "christian" evangelicals or other Trump supporters? The answer is of course no.
Fact check: Trump makes more than 20 false or misleading claims in accepting presidential nomination
Demagogue Don (8/24/20), referring to the Democrats: "What they're doing is using Covid to steal an election. They're using Covid to defraud the American people, all of our people, of a fair and free election. .. The only way they can take this election away from us is if it's a rigged election." (emphasis added) Trump uses dark message to kick off RNC despite aides' claims of optimism
PolitiFact | Donald Trump says Joe Biden can only win by a 'rigged election.' That's wrong in several ways Trump's statement, like so many others, was rated as Pants on Fire. Trump is a shameless, unprincipled serial liar beyond any reasonable doubt. I am not surprised that 81% of republicans view him as honest however.
Unless Biden wins the battleground states in a landslide, Donald has made it crystal clear that he will contest the election, claiming fraud, and will not voluntarily leave office without a fight.
The absence of evidence supporting his voting fraud claims will not stop him from making them using his megaphone on Twitter and through his powers as President.
Delusional Don proclaimed that FDA employees are conspiring to hurt his reelection chances. This particular Trump manufactured conspiracy has as its foundation the necessary time that is required to conduct safety and efficacy trials for Covid-19 vaccines before the vaccines are given to millions.
Drug firms rebut Trump tweet that FDA delaying Covid-19 vaccines - STAT
WHO says plasma treatment touted as breakthrough by Trump is unproven, advises caution - MarketWatch
Trump Administration Says Some Coronavirus Tests Can Bypass F.D.A. Scrutiny - The New York Times, republished at MSN.com-Trump Administration Says Some Coronavirus Tests Can Bypass F.D.A. Scrutiny Dr. Don ordered the FDA to approve lab tests for Covid with no evidence that they work. Some of the MSN links quit working after a short period of time, possibly due to a license expiration for permitted republication.
Dr. Don, Phd and MD in B.S., appears to be calling the shots at both the FDA and CDC now.
Hannity privately called Trump 'bats--- crazy' and stress-vaped: book - Business Insider;
“Hannity Has Said to Me More Than Once, ‘He’s Crazy’”: Fox News Staffers Feel Trapped in the Trump Cult | Vanity Fair
Trump is crazy beyond any reasonable doubt. But that is not the question here.
Why is Hannity doing everything that he can to help a crazy person win a second term.
Sure 63+M people will vote to give a crazy, vindictive, vacuous, lying demagogue another 4 year term as President; but why is Hannity providing an assist when he knows that Donald is nuts based on countless hours of conversation with the Mad King.
Is it money and power?
Hannity, who talks to Donald frequently, has to know that he would be finished at Fox "news" if he admitted calling Donald crazy in private.
Donald knows that lying all of the time about almost everything will persuade 40% to 50% of U.S. voters to accept his false statements and narratives as true.
Sad but true. That is just the natural culmination of the GOP's 7 decade effort to convince people to mistrust independent news sources and to instead rely solely on the GOP's false narratives and reality creations. It is not about anything other than to acquire and maintain power and the money that flows from it.
Donald lied when he claimed that the Democrats took out "under God" in the pledge of allegiance at their convention.
Fact check: DNC did not omit 'under God' from the Pledge of Allegiance
Top Republican National Security Officials Say They Will Vote for Biden - The New York Times;
I did not watch the conventions. I knew without watching that Trump and his supporters would be lying non-stop throughout the RNC convention. I have a low tolerance level for liars.
The White House makes it clear that it sees chaos in the streets as politically useful - The Washington Post That was true for Nixon in 1968.
In Trump's America, it is a good thing that police shot a black man in the back seven times and that a young white follower of Trump killed two protestors and wounded another last week. Donald and his party hope to gain votes from those acts. Kellyanne Conway Says Kenosha Violence Is 'Better' For Trump-Will Help His Reelection Chances
Trump and his party will only make matters worse by increasing the level of violent confrontations IMO.
Kenosha Suspect Kyle Rittenhouse Was Front Row At Trump Rally; Ann Coulter Ripped for Kyle Rittenhouse for President Tweet; Kyle Rittenhouse, Kenosha, and the Sheepdog Mentality - The Atlantic; Tracking Kyle Rittenhouse in the Fatal Kenosha Shootings - The New York Times Fox "news" has already elevated Rittenhouse to a national hero status.
Former Homeland Security Official Says Trump Has “Absolutely Failed” Her name is Elizabeth Neumann, who voted for Trump in 2016, and served as the Assistant Secretary for Threat Prevention in Trump's DHS. Second Trump DHS Official Comes Out For Biden - YouTube
See also, Former Chief of Staff of Trump's DHS is the newest Republican Voter Against Trump - YouTube
In Mary Trump's secret tapes, president's sister Maryanne calls brother "stupid," "phony", "cruel" - The Washington Post Maryanne also noted Donald has no principles and is a liar. She also noted that Donald does not read. All of the above character traits are now, and have been for years, clearly observable to anyone whose mind is open to facts about Donald. Mary Trump's claim that Donald had someone take the SAT for him originated from Maryanne who also asserted that she did Donald's homework for him. Donald is a genius in TrumpWorld.
Trump's sister assailed him for 'lying,' 'phoniness,' 'cruelty,' and having 'no principles,' secretly recorded audio reveals
Trump's sister Maryanne Trump Barry calls him a 'liar' in recordings: USA Today
Will Maryanne Trump observations about her brother carry any weight with "christian" evangelicals or other Trump supporters? The answer is of course no.
Fact check: Trump makes more than 20 false or misleading claims in accepting presidential nomination
Demagogue Don (8/24/20), referring to the Democrats: "What they're doing is using Covid to steal an election. They're using Covid to defraud the American people, all of our people, of a fair and free election. .. The only way they can take this election away from us is if it's a rigged election." (emphasis added) Trump uses dark message to kick off RNC despite aides' claims of optimism
PolitiFact | Donald Trump says Joe Biden can only win by a 'rigged election.' That's wrong in several ways Trump's statement, like so many others, was rated as Pants on Fire. Trump is a shameless, unprincipled serial liar beyond any reasonable doubt. I am not surprised that 81% of republicans view him as honest however.
Unless Biden wins the battleground states in a landslide, Donald has made it crystal clear that he will contest the election, claiming fraud, and will not voluntarily leave office without a fight.
The absence of evidence supporting his voting fraud claims will not stop him from making them using his megaphone on Twitter and through his powers as President.
Delusional Don proclaimed that FDA employees are conspiring to hurt his reelection chances. This particular Trump manufactured conspiracy has as its foundation the necessary time that is required to conduct safety and efficacy trials for Covid-19 vaccines before the vaccines are given to millions.
 |
| 8/22/20 |
WHO says plasma treatment touted as breakthrough by Trump is unproven, advises caution - MarketWatch
Trump Administration Says Some Coronavirus Tests Can Bypass F.D.A. Scrutiny - The New York Times, republished at MSN.com-Trump Administration Says Some Coronavirus Tests Can Bypass F.D.A. Scrutiny Dr. Don ordered the FDA to approve lab tests for Covid with no evidence that they work. Some of the MSN links quit working after a short period of time, possibly due to a license expiration for permitted republication.
Dr. Don, Phd and MD in B.S., appears to be calling the shots at both the FDA and CDC now.
Hannity privately called Trump 'bats--- crazy' and stress-vaped: book - Business Insider;
“Hannity Has Said to Me More Than Once, ‘He’s Crazy’”: Fox News Staffers Feel Trapped in the Trump Cult | Vanity Fair
Trump is crazy beyond any reasonable doubt. But that is not the question here.
Why is Hannity doing everything that he can to help a crazy person win a second term.
Sure 63+M people will vote to give a crazy, vindictive, vacuous, lying demagogue another 4 year term as President; but why is Hannity providing an assist when he knows that Donald is nuts based on countless hours of conversation with the Mad King.
Is it money and power?
Hannity, who talks to Donald frequently, has to know that he would be finished at Fox "news" if he admitted calling Donald crazy in private.
Donald knows that lying all of the time about almost everything will persuade 40% to 50% of U.S. voters to accept his false statements and narratives as true.
Sad but true. That is just the natural culmination of the GOP's 7 decade effort to convince people to mistrust independent news sources and to instead rely solely on the GOP's false narratives and reality creations. It is not about anything other than to acquire and maintain power and the money that flows from it.
Donald lied when he claimed that the Democrats took out "under God" in the pledge of allegiance at their convention.
Top Republican National Security Officials Say They Will Vote for Biden - The New York Times;
Republican national security officials back Biden, say Trump "dangerously unfit" to serve - CBS News
Former Republican National Security Officials for Biden-Defending Democracy Together Will that damning indictment by 70 former republican national security officials change any votes? A few republicans, who have already decided against voting for Trump, share the concerns and searing criticism contained in that letter. The 42% who support Donald no matter what will not be influenced by any such statement by informed people from their own party officials.
Republicans supporting Biden: View the list of prominent GOP members
So I doubt that it will change any other votes, which is also the case for the books recently published by Bolton and Mary Trump and the ones to be published by Michael Cohen and Bob Woodward.
Donald has a powerful hold over his cult, all of whom are leaving in an impenetrable alternate reality created by Donald; Fox "news" and other pseudo "conservative" propaganda outlets; evangelical "christian" preachers and personalities like Jerry Falwell, and republican politicians.
Fact check: Trump delivers blizzard of false claims in Pennsylvania speech attacking Biden
Biden endorsed by former GOP Senator Jeff Flake and other former GOP Congress members (Flake: "Today, given what we have experienced over the past four years, it's not enough just to register our disapproval of the president. We need to elect someone else in his place — someone who will stop the chaos and reverse the damage. It is because of my conservatism, and because of my belief in the Constitution and the separation of power, and because I am gravely concerned about the conduct and behavior of our current president, that I stand here today, proudly and wholeheartedly, to endorse Joe Biden as the next president of the United States of America,")
I would agree with Peter Wehner that true conservatives are appalled by Trump. Opinion | For Conservatives to Have Any Hope, Trump Has to Lose - The New York Times
One of the integral cogs in the GOP's propaganda media machine is Alex Jones' Infowars. Links to some interesting recent developments: Millie Weaver, Infowars Correspondent Indictment Released | Law & Crime; CT Supreme Court upholds sanctions against InfoWars host Alex Jones over Sandy Hook comments - ABC7 New York
Jo Rae Perkins: The GOP US Senate candidate who took a QAnon pledge
Russian-backed organizations amplifying QAnon conspiracy theories, researchers say - Reuters
'Mind-bogglingly irresponsible': meet the Republican donors helping QAnon reach Congress
Trump embraces QAnon; Trump says he appreciates QAnon support The only cure for Donald's mental issues is a brain transplant which has not yet been perfected by medical science. If he is reelected, Donald will only get worse, much worse IMO, and republicans will protect him no matter what he does or how many laws he breaks.
Opinion | QAnon Is Trump’s Last, Best Chance - The New York Times (Paul Krugman column)
Former top Postal Service official testifies Mnuchin and White House were involved in slowing mail - CBS News
Mnuchin Paved Way for U.S.P.S. Shake-Up - The New York Times, MSN republished at Mnuchin Paved Way for U.S.P.S. Shake-Up. Mnuchin is the one implementing Trump's directives that will slow down mail delivery shortly before the election. Prior to Mnuchin's interference to implement Donald's whims, the Post Office has governed free from political influence.
Fact-Check: USPS head DeJoy's misleading testimony about overtime changes he oversaw
William Barr Pressed Rupert Murdoch to 'Muzzle' Fox News' Andrew Napolitano, Book Says
Ballot drop boxes are safe, secure and have been used by Republicans and Democrats for decades — so why is Trump bashing them? - MarketWatch
PolitiFact | Donald Trump repeats false claim that Obama spied on his campaign
Fact-checking the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention - The Washington Post ("The first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention was a fire hose of false or misleading claims, mostly drawn from President Trump’s arsenal of falsehoods.") This WP article focuses on just 19 of the lies.
Takeaways from Republican National Convention night 1-The Washington Post, republished at MSN.com 3 takeaways from the first night of the Republican National Convention Prior to the RNC convention, the GOP claimed that it was going to be positive.
Here are just two examples of the positive messages spewed during the opening night:
Democrats “want to destroy this country and everything that we have fought for and hold dear. They want to steal your liberty, your freedom.” Democrats are “attacking the very principles on which our nation was founded: freedom of thought, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, the rule of law.”
I frequently hear Trumpsters parroting those claims that they heard on Fox "news" .
An example from last Friday was the following statement from Wendi Rees who is the public relations director for a group called Take Back America Texas:
“We believe our country is being taken from us. Our constitutional rights, our Second Amendment rights, our First Amendment are all being threatened." U.S. political divide becomes increasingly violent, rattling activists and police - The Washington Post This particular article details how Trumpsters shows up at a peaceful rally in Tyler, Texas, with their confederate flags and automatic weapons, and physically assaulted peaceful protestors.
White Vigilantes have showed up 437 times so far this year to confront, often violently, peaceful protestors, resulting in "64 cases of simple assault, 38 incidents of vigilantes driving cars into demonstrators, and nine times shots were fired at protesters."
Those Trumpsters are the real Americans in Trump's America. The Tyler Texas police department of course did not bother to protect the protestors from assaults. Too busy on their extended lunch breaks I suppose. Tyler is named after the only U.S. President who sided with the Confederate States of America.
Mary Ann Mendoza pulled from RNC after tweeting anti-Semitic conspiracy thread
Greenland ice sheet lost a record 530 billion metric tons of ice last year, study says - CBS News
Climate Change Is Making Hurricanes Stronger, Researchers Find | The Weather Channel
++++
Covid-19:
Donald has it under control in TrumpWorld:
Coronavirus cases linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally found in 8 states (8/25/20)
RNC: No Social Distancing Among Packed Crowd For Trump Event
566 coronavirus cases reported at University of Alabama in less than a week since classes started (8/25/20)
Maine Wedding Coronavirus Toll Reaches 87 As Health Official Fears Situation in State Could 'Spiral' (8/28/20)
Over 74,000 Children Diagnosed With COVID Since Early August 74,160 coronavirus cases among children diagnosed between 8/6/20 to 8/20/20 according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. There is no need to be concerned since Donald has assured every parent that children are virtually immune so that report is Fake News.
Iowa sees record 2,579 cases and 79 percent coronavirus positivity rate | The Gazette (8/28/2020) Iowa's republican governor mandated that all students must receive in person instruction. Iowa governor overrides schools, requires in-person classes despite the coronavirus threat to teachers, students - Chicago Tribune
Anti-maskers might want to check out what just happened when a woman with coronavirus visited a Starbucks - MarketWatch A woman with an infection sat under an air conditioner. 56 coronavirus infections among Starbuck patrons were linked to that lady. You can't drink with a mask on. None of the Starbuck employees, who consistently wore masks while the woman was present, became infected.
Trump approval on handling pandemic drops to 31 percent: poll | TheHill 66% of republicans give Donald a favorable rating on handling the pandemic. Dissatisfaction with the Federal COVID-19 Response Remains High - AP-NORC I thought that was a low number. If reasonably accurate, it does show that Donald's reality creations and demonstrably false statements made by him daily do not work on every republican when it comes to matters of life and death for them, their families and friends.
The 15 New COVID Symptoms Scaring Doctors
A 6-year-old girl is now the youngest person to die of COVID-19 in Florida - CBS News (8/21/20)("Since March, 47,489 Florida residents under the age of 18 have tested positive for the virus. Nearly 600 of those patients were hospitalized.")
Trump Touts Misleading and Flawed Excess Mortality Statistic - FactCheck.org An informed person can not believe anything that Donald says.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb: Covid-19 plasma treatment might help, not home run Clinical trials on the effectiveness are still ongoing.
The CDC is now recommending that only people will symptoms be tested for Covid-19.
The CDC is not even recommending that those exposed to a known infected person be tested. Overview of Testing for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) | CDC (Update 8/24/20); CDC reverses COVID-19 guidance, says testing may not be needed after exposure; C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing - The New York Times
The change was made when Dr. Fauci was hospitalized for a vocal cord surgery. Fauci says he was having surgery when CDC testing changes were approved - Axios
I view that policy change to be primarily on political pressure from Donald. The change is also consistent with a recognition that testing has failed in the U.S., with a majority of results taking too long to report.
By cutting back on testing to those with symptoms, possibly the U.S. can manage to produce results within the time period that would allow effective contact tracing seven months into the pandemic.
The problem is that the CDC, probably succumbing to political pressure from Trump, is willing to forego testing those who may be able to spread the virus but are either symptomatic or unaware of their mild symptoms as being caused by Covid-19. Controversial CDC change in coronavirus testing guidelines came from the White House - The Washington Post
Donald has specifically stated that he wants less testing. The results were making him look bad and hurting his reelection chances. The fact that significantly less testing will contribute to more infections and deaths is irrelevant in Trump's America and to a majority of republicans as shown in a recent poll. Most Republicans say that 176,000 coronavirus deaths are ‘acceptable,’ new CBS poll shows - MarketWatch
The CDC also updated its guidelines about quarantining for 14 days when returning from an area with a high Covid-19 infection rate. The CDC, possibly succumbing to political pressure, stated that this was no longer necessary. Travel during the COVID-19 Pandemic-CDC; COVID-19 quarantine: CDC drops 14-day recommendation for travelers
Cuomo rips CDC as Trump's political tool, says NY won't follow new guidance There is evidence that the CDC positions relating to Covid-19 can be influenced by political pressure from Trump rather than mostly on considerations based on science and medicine. Personally, I view that organization now as so lacking in credibility that their recommendations on the current pandemic can not be taken at face value and must be examined critically.
Hong Kong man was reinfected by the coronavirus, researchers say; Cases of COVID-19 reinfection in Netherlands, Belgium, national broadcaster reports There remains a question how long antibodies will protect against a reinfection and how many are needed to provide effective immunity, even over a short period of time.
RNC 2020: Trump’s speech was Covid-19 gaslighting - Vox
Jo Rae Perkins: The GOP US Senate candidate who took a QAnon pledge
Russian-backed organizations amplifying QAnon conspiracy theories, researchers say - Reuters
'Mind-bogglingly irresponsible': meet the Republican donors helping QAnon reach Congress
Trump embraces QAnon; Trump says he appreciates QAnon support The only cure for Donald's mental issues is a brain transplant which has not yet been perfected by medical science. If he is reelected, Donald will only get worse, much worse IMO, and republicans will protect him no matter what he does or how many laws he breaks.
Opinion | QAnon Is Trump’s Last, Best Chance - The New York Times (Paul Krugman column)
Former top Postal Service official testifies Mnuchin and White House were involved in slowing mail - CBS News
Mnuchin Paved Way for U.S.P.S. Shake-Up - The New York Times, MSN republished at Mnuchin Paved Way for U.S.P.S. Shake-Up. Mnuchin is the one implementing Trump's directives that will slow down mail delivery shortly before the election. Prior to Mnuchin's interference to implement Donald's whims, the Post Office has governed free from political influence.
William Barr Pressed Rupert Murdoch to 'Muzzle' Fox News' Andrew Napolitano, Book Says
Ballot drop boxes are safe, secure and have been used by Republicans and Democrats for decades — so why is Trump bashing them? - MarketWatch
PolitiFact | Donald Trump repeats false claim that Obama spied on his campaign
Fact-checking the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention - The Washington Post ("The first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention was a fire hose of false or misleading claims, mostly drawn from President Trump’s arsenal of falsehoods.") This WP article focuses on just 19 of the lies.
Takeaways from Republican National Convention night 1-The Washington Post, republished at MSN.com 3 takeaways from the first night of the Republican National Convention Prior to the RNC convention, the GOP claimed that it was going to be positive.
Here are just two examples of the positive messages spewed during the opening night:
Democrats “want to destroy this country and everything that we have fought for and hold dear. They want to steal your liberty, your freedom.” Democrats are “attacking the very principles on which our nation was founded: freedom of thought, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, the rule of law.”
I frequently hear Trumpsters parroting those claims that they heard on Fox "news" .
An example from last Friday was the following statement from Wendi Rees who is the public relations director for a group called Take Back America Texas:
“We believe our country is being taken from us. Our constitutional rights, our Second Amendment rights, our First Amendment are all being threatened." U.S. political divide becomes increasingly violent, rattling activists and police - The Washington Post This particular article details how Trumpsters shows up at a peaceful rally in Tyler, Texas, with their confederate flags and automatic weapons, and physically assaulted peaceful protestors.
White Vigilantes have showed up 437 times so far this year to confront, often violently, peaceful protestors, resulting in "64 cases of simple assault, 38 incidents of vigilantes driving cars into demonstrators, and nine times shots were fired at protesters."
Those Trumpsters are the real Americans in Trump's America. The Tyler Texas police department of course did not bother to protect the protestors from assaults. Too busy on their extended lunch breaks I suppose. Tyler is named after the only U.S. President who sided with the Confederate States of America.
Mary Ann Mendoza pulled from RNC after tweeting anti-Semitic conspiracy thread
Greenland ice sheet lost a record 530 billion metric tons of ice last year, study says - CBS News
Climate Change Is Making Hurricanes Stronger, Researchers Find | The Weather Channel
++++
Covid-19:
Donald has it under control in TrumpWorld:
 |
| As of 8/28/20 |
RNC: No Social Distancing Among Packed Crowd For Trump Event
566 coronavirus cases reported at University of Alabama in less than a week since classes started (8/25/20)
Maine Wedding Coronavirus Toll Reaches 87 As Health Official Fears Situation in State Could 'Spiral' (8/28/20)
Over 74,000 Children Diagnosed With COVID Since Early August 74,160 coronavirus cases among children diagnosed between 8/6/20 to 8/20/20 according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. There is no need to be concerned since Donald has assured every parent that children are virtually immune so that report is Fake News.
Iowa sees record 2,579 cases and 79 percent coronavirus positivity rate | The Gazette (8/28/2020) Iowa's republican governor mandated that all students must receive in person instruction. Iowa governor overrides schools, requires in-person classes despite the coronavirus threat to teachers, students - Chicago Tribune
Anti-maskers might want to check out what just happened when a woman with coronavirus visited a Starbucks - MarketWatch A woman with an infection sat under an air conditioner. 56 coronavirus infections among Starbuck patrons were linked to that lady. You can't drink with a mask on. None of the Starbuck employees, who consistently wore masks while the woman was present, became infected.
Trump approval on handling pandemic drops to 31 percent: poll | TheHill 66% of republicans give Donald a favorable rating on handling the pandemic. Dissatisfaction with the Federal COVID-19 Response Remains High - AP-NORC I thought that was a low number. If reasonably accurate, it does show that Donald's reality creations and demonstrably false statements made by him daily do not work on every republican when it comes to matters of life and death for them, their families and friends.
The 15 New COVID Symptoms Scaring Doctors
A 6-year-old girl is now the youngest person to die of COVID-19 in Florida - CBS News (8/21/20)("Since March, 47,489 Florida residents under the age of 18 have tested positive for the virus. Nearly 600 of those patients were hospitalized.")
Trump Touts Misleading and Flawed Excess Mortality Statistic - FactCheck.org An informed person can not believe anything that Donald says.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb: Covid-19 plasma treatment might help, not home run Clinical trials on the effectiveness are still ongoing.
What the 'Emergency' Blood Plasma Debacle Reveals - The Atlantic There is "limited evidence available suggests that infusing patients with the antibody-rich plasma of survivors is, at best, incrementally effective." One study found that giving plasma within 3 days of a diagnosis was "marginally better" outcomes than those who received it after 4 days. The study only had a small sample of people. Effect of Convalescent Plasma on Mortality among Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Initial Three-Month Experience
There is yet no randomized, controlled trial comparing plasma treatment with alternative therapies or no treatment. In other words, the patients receiving treatment within 3 days after being diagnosed may have done marginally better than those who were given plasma for reasons other than the plasma treatment. F.D.A. ‘Grossly Misrepresented’ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say - The New York Times
The FDA commissioner appointed by Donald misrepresented the data when speaking alongside Trump who claimed falsely that plasma treatment had been proven to reduce mortality by 35%. FDA, under pressure, authorizes blood plasma as Covid-19 treatment The study referenced by Donald is not proof. Convalescent plasma went from promising to politically tainted: 3 things to know - ABC News; Trump opened the floodgates for convalescent plasma too soon - STAT Donald is a menace, dictating actions impacting Americans' health based on nothing but his own pervasive ignorance, personal objectives and narcissism.
The CDC is not even recommending that those exposed to a known infected person be tested. Overview of Testing for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) | CDC (Update 8/24/20); CDC reverses COVID-19 guidance, says testing may not be needed after exposure; C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing - The New York Times
The change was made when Dr. Fauci was hospitalized for a vocal cord surgery. Fauci says he was having surgery when CDC testing changes were approved - Axios
I view that policy change to be primarily on political pressure from Donald. The change is also consistent with a recognition that testing has failed in the U.S., with a majority of results taking too long to report.
By cutting back on testing to those with symptoms, possibly the U.S. can manage to produce results within the time period that would allow effective contact tracing seven months into the pandemic.
The problem is that the CDC, probably succumbing to political pressure from Trump, is willing to forego testing those who may be able to spread the virus but are either symptomatic or unaware of their mild symptoms as being caused by Covid-19. Controversial CDC change in coronavirus testing guidelines came from the White House - The Washington Post
Donald has specifically stated that he wants less testing. The results were making him look bad and hurting his reelection chances. The fact that significantly less testing will contribute to more infections and deaths is irrelevant in Trump's America and to a majority of republicans as shown in a recent poll. Most Republicans say that 176,000 coronavirus deaths are ‘acceptable,’ new CBS poll shows - MarketWatch
Cuomo rips CDC as Trump's political tool, says NY won't follow new guidance There is evidence that the CDC positions relating to Covid-19 can be influenced by political pressure from Trump rather than mostly on considerations based on science and medicine. Personally, I view that organization now as so lacking in credibility that their recommendations on the current pandemic can not be taken at face value and must be examined critically.
Hong Kong man was reinfected by the coronavirus, researchers say; Cases of COVID-19 reinfection in Netherlands, Belgium, national broadcaster reports There remains a question how long antibodies will protect against a reinfection and how many are needed to provide effective immunity, even over a short period of time.
RNC 2020: Trump’s speech was Covid-19 gaslighting - Vox
++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
In Items # 1 and 2 below, I briefly mentioned eliminating Jernigan Capital's common and preferred stocks.
Jernigan Capital is a storage REIT that is in the process of being acquired for $17.3 per share in cash, which I believe undervalues the company. Jernigan Capital to be Acquired by a NexPoint Advisors, L.P. Affiliate for $17.30 per Share in an All Cash Deal
The JCAP Board needed IMO to refrain from selling the company during the pandemic and recession.
My total return on JCAP's preferred stock was better than the total return on the common shares, where I had to repeatedly average down to come out ahead.
I am eliminating both the common and preferred stock positions since I no longer want to think about this one, having plenty of other balls in the air that require attention.
1. Eliminated JCAPPRB:
A. Sold 20 JCAPPRB at $25.13:
Profit Snapshot: $148.08 (8/18 sell only)
B. Sold 5 JCAPPRB at $25.18:
Profit Snapshot: +$37.05
C. Sold 10 JCAPPRB at $25.22:
Profit Snapshot: +$77.59
2. Eliminated JCAP Common Shares:
A. Sold 93+ JCAP at $17.16:
Profit Snapshot: +$127.02
B. Sold 104+ JCAP at $17.17:
Profit Snapshot: $148.18
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
In Items # 1 and 2 below, I briefly mentioned eliminating Jernigan Capital's common and preferred stocks.
Jernigan Capital is a storage REIT that is in the process of being acquired for $17.3 per share in cash, which I believe undervalues the company. Jernigan Capital to be Acquired by a NexPoint Advisors, L.P. Affiliate for $17.30 per Share in an All Cash Deal
The JCAP Board needed IMO to refrain from selling the company during the pandemic and recession.
My total return on JCAP's preferred stock was better than the total return on the common shares, where I had to repeatedly average down to come out ahead.
I am eliminating both the common and preferred stock positions since I no longer want to think about this one, having plenty of other balls in the air that require attention.
1. Eliminated JCAPPRB:
A. Sold 20 JCAPPRB at $25.13:
Profit Snapshot: $148.08 (8/18 sell only)
B. Sold 5 JCAPPRB at $25.18:
Profit Snapshot: +$37.05
C. Sold 10 JCAPPRB at $25.22:
Profit Snapshot: +$77.59
2. Eliminated JCAP Common Shares:
A. Sold 93+ JCAP at $17.16:
Profit Snapshot: +$127.02
B. Sold 104+ JCAP at $17.17:
Profit Snapshot: $148.18
3. Pared BRGPRA-Sold 50 at $25.26 (highest Cost lot):
Quote: BRG-PA 8.25% Cumulative Preferred Stock
Issuer: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG)
Profit Snapshot: $30.55
In this account, I reduced my average cost per share to $19.1 from $22.18.
I sold a 50 shares lot that was bought at $24.65. Item # 1.B,
BRGPRA Average Cost After Pare:
Dividend Yield at $19.1 average cost per share = 10.8%
Security: Prospectus
Par Value = $25
Dividends: Quarterly, non-qualified (pass through entity), and Cumulative
Optional Redemption Date: On or after 1021/20 at issuer's option
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/24/20 (owned all as of)
I also own 50 shares in my Schwab taxable account and a smaller number with a lower cost basis in two Roth IRA accounts and my Vanguard taxable account.
Schwab Taxable Account Snapshot as of 8/25/20:
4. Small Ball: Extreme Caution
Issuer: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG)
Profit Snapshot: $30.55
I sold a 50 shares lot that was bought at $24.65. Item # 1.B,
BRGPRA Average Cost After Pare:
 |
| 40 Shares Remaining-Snapshot Intraday 8/25/20 |
Security: Prospectus
Par Value = $25
Dividends: Quarterly, non-qualified (pass through entity), and Cumulative
Optional Redemption Date: On or after 1021/20 at issuer's option
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/24/20 (owned all as of)
I also own 50 shares in my Schwab taxable account and a smaller number with a lower cost basis in two Roth IRA accounts and my Vanguard taxable account.
Schwab Taxable Account Snapshot as of 8/25/20:
 |
| 50 BRGPRA Average Cost $22.05-Snapshot Intraday 8/25/20 |
A. Restarted WBS-Bought 5 at $26.2:
Quote Webster Financial Corp.
Closing Price 8/28/20: WBS $28.19 -$0.30 -1.05%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
WBS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Closing Price 8/28/20: WBS $28.19 -$0.30 -1.05%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
WBS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
Investor Relations | Webster Financial Corporation
"With $32.7 billion in assets, Webster provides business and consumer banking, mortgage, financial planning, trust, and investment services through 157 banking centers and 306 ATMs. Webster also provides mobile and Internet banking." The headquarters is in Waterbury, Connecticut.
Branches:
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4 per share, last raised from $.33 effective for the 2019 first quarter. Dividend History | Webster Financial Corporation
Investor Relations | Webster Financial Corporation
"With $32.7 billion in assets, Webster provides business and consumer banking, mortgage, financial planning, trust, and investment services through 157 banking centers and 306 ATMs. Webster also provides mobile and Internet banking." The headquarters is in Waterbury, Connecticut.
Branches:
 |
| Page 19: 2019 Annual Report |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4 per share, last raised from $.33 effective for the 2019 first quarter. Dividend History | Webster Financial Corporation
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/4/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $26.2: 6.11%
Last Elimination: Item # 1 Sold 50 WBS at $22.49 (5/4/2011 Post)(profit snapshot= $879.52)-Item # 7 Bought 50 WBS at $4.58 (3/26/2009 Post)
5 Year Financial History:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
As with other banks, earnings are being negatively impacted by increases in loan loss reserves and net interest margin compression.
"The provision for credit losses was $40.0 million in the quarter, contributing to a $23.6 million increase in the allowance for credit losses on loans and leases. The increase in the allowance reflects our revised estimate of forecasted economic conditions. The provision for credit losses was $76.0 million in the prior quarter and $11.9 million a year ago. The increase compared to a year ago is primarily due to the adoption of CECL and the impact of COVID-19." (emphasis added)
Charge-offs are up, but not yet in a worrisome amount:
"Net charge-offs were $16.4 million, compared to $7.8 million in the prior quarter and $11.6 million a year ago. The ratio of net charge-offs to average loans on an annualized basis was 0.30 percent, compared to 0.15 percent in the prior quarter and 0.24 percent a year ago."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $27.4, up from $25.63 as of 6/30/19.
I am anticipating that the charge-off ratio will rise in coming quarters from the .3% reported in the second quarter.
B. Restarted TRST-Bought 10 at $5.95; 5 at $5.83:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp.
Closing Price 8/28: TRST $5.86 +$0.02 +0.34%
Average cost per share = $5.91
"The company currently operates 148 banking offices in Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren, Washington and Westchester counties of New York; Hillborough, Lake, Orange, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, and Volusia counties in Florida; Berkshire County, Massachusetts; Bennington County, Vermont; and Bergen County, New Jersey." Trustco Bank - Corporate Profile
SEC Filings
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.0681 per share ($.2724 annually)
TrustCo continues more than 100-year history of success, announces quarterly dividend
Last Ex Dividend: 6/4/20
Next Ex Dividend: 9/3/20
Dividend Yield at AC per share = 4.61%
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated TRST-Sold 56+ shares at $8.8 (11/27/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
Tangible Book Value Per Share : $5.73
TrustCo is Pleased to Report Second Quarter 2020 Results; Net Income of $11.3 Million and 7.6% Average Residential Loan Growth Year over Year
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 125 TRST at $8.6 (11/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $68.51); Item # 1.B. Sold 161+ TRST at $9.2+ (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot= $51.09); Item # 2 Sold 100 TRST at $6.69 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $63.02); Item # 1 Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $549.47); Sold 308 TRST at $6.64 (10/28/13 Post)(profit snapshot= $238.38); Sold 50 TRST at $7.29 (11/25/13 Post)(profit snapshot = +$32.67)
TRST Trading Profits to Date: $1,067.4
Closing Price 8/28: TRST $5.86 +$0.02 +0.34%
Average cost per share = $5.91
"The company currently operates 148 banking offices in Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren, Washington and Westchester counties of New York; Hillborough, Lake, Orange, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, and Volusia counties in Florida; Berkshire County, Massachusetts; Bennington County, Vermont; and Bergen County, New Jersey." Trustco Bank - Corporate Profile
SEC Filings
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
TrustCo continues more than 100-year history of success, announces quarterly dividend
Last Ex Dividend: 6/4/20
Next Ex Dividend: 9/3/20
Dividend Yield at AC per share = 4.61%
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated TRST-Sold 56+ shares at $8.8 (11/27/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
TrustCo is Pleased to Report Second Quarter 2020 Results; Net Income of $11.3 Million and 7.6% Average Residential Loan Growth Year over Year
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 125 TRST at $8.6 (11/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $68.51); Item # 1.B. Sold 161+ TRST at $9.2+ (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot= $51.09); Item # 2 Sold 100 TRST at $6.69 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $63.02); Item # 1 Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $549.47); Sold 308 TRST at $6.64 (10/28/13 Post)(profit snapshot= $238.38); Sold 50 TRST at $7.29 (11/25/13 Post)(profit snapshot = +$32.67)
TRST Trading Profits to Date: $1,067.4
C. Bought 5 MILN at $29.17:
Quote: MILN | Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28/20: MILN $32.28 +$0.19 +0.59%
I have bought this ETF in several of my accounts as a placeholder.
Sponsor's Website: Millennials Thematic ETF
Expense ratio = .5%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Bought 2 MILN at $28.09 (7/11/20 Post)
Top 10 Positions as of 8/25/20:
D. Started FIVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 8 Shares:
Quote: FIVG | Defiance Next Gen Connectivity ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28/20: FIVG $29.76 +$0.26 +0.88%
I discussed a starter position in my Fidelity taxable account here: Item # 2.A. Started FIVG in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $27.6 (8/15/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: The First 5G ETF - FIVG
Expense Ratio: .3%
Top Ten Positions as of 8/26/20:
E. Started TECB in Schwab taxable account-Bought 10 Shares:
Average Cost = $31.45
Quote: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28: TECB $33.35 +$0.20 +0.60%
I previously discussed starting a position in my Fidelity taxable account. Item # 1.E. Started TECB in Fidelity Account-Bought 5 at $29.76 (8/1/20 Post) I own fewer shares in two Roth IRA accounts.
Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF
Top 10 Positions as of 8/27/20:
CRM moved into the top spot due to its price spurt last week.
F. Restarted MET-Bought 5 at $37.3:
Quote: MetLife Inc.
Closing Price 8/28: MET $39.42 +$0.35 +0.90%
MET-Analyst Estimates
MetLife, Inc. - Overview
MET SEC Filings
MET 2019 Annual Report
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.46, raised from $.44 effective for the 2020 second quarter
MetLife, Inc. - Stock - Common Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend: 8/3/20 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): MetLife Announces Second Quarter 2020 Results Life insurance company earnings are impossible to comprehend unless you have spent considerable time studying accounting unique to those companies. I have not made any effort in that regard.
This is a summary using MET's words:
"MetLife reported second quarter 2020 premiums, fees and other revenues of $10.5 billion, down 13 percent over the second quarter of 2019. Adjusted premiums, fees and other revenues were $10.4 billion, down 13 percent, and down 11 percent on a constant currency basis from the prior-year period.
Net investment income was $4.1 billion, down 13 percent from the second quarter of 2019. Adjusted net investment income was $3.4 billion, down 24 percent from the prior-year period. The decline in net investment income was primarily driven by a loss in variable investment income, which reflects a one quarter reporting lag for private equity results."
It is important to note the last sentence in that quote. Net investment income declined due to MET's private equity investments that are reported with a one quarter lag, which would have been the first quarter. Private equity results would have improved in the second quarter which will be included in MET's third quarter report.
Broker Reports-Available to Schwab Customers:
S & P (8/7/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $42
Credit Suisse (8/5/20): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $46
Morningstar (5/20/20): 3 stars with a FV of $44
Argus (8/17/20): Buy with a PT of $45
This is a link to a recent article published at SA that is not yet behind a paywall: MetLife Has More Potential Than The Market Seems To Think (NYSE:MET) | Seeking Alpha
The current low interest rate regime is a major negative for MetLife and other life insurance companies. One major operational benefit is that a life insurance company collects premiums that can be invested to earn income for many years prior to being paid out in claims. Yields on fixed income securities have come way down. As higher yielding securities mature, the the yields on reinvestment options will result in lower income.
Prior Trades and Discussions: +$707.67
I last sold MET shares shortly before it completed the spinoff of Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHF) to MET's shareholders (1 BHF share for 11 MET shares). MetLife Completes Spin-Off of Brighthouse Financial
Item #5.A. Sold 106+ MET at $55.13-Eliminated Position (7/19/17 Post) (profit snapshot = $502.7)
Item # 4.A. (6/20/2017 Post) (profit snapshot = $149.48)
Added To METLIFE (MET) - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (11/31/15)
Comment 11/15/16 Mentioned Selling 50 at $54.79
G. Restarted BAM- Bought 5 at $32.31; 1 at $31.78:
Quote: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Cl A (BAM)
Closing Price 8/28/20: BAM $34.84 +$0.25 +0.72%
Average Cost: $32.22
BAM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations: Brookfield Asset Management Inc ("Brookfield Asset Management is a leading global alternative asset manager with approximately $550 billion of assets under management across real estate, infrastructure, renewable power, private equity and credit.")
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at US$.12 per share
Last Ex Dividend Date: Yesterday, 8/28 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Brookfield Asset Management Announces Record $23 billion of Fundraising and Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM) CEO Bruce Flatt on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
SEC Filed Release with More Details This is a complicated report.
I have elected to focus on FFO and cash available for distribution rather than reported GAAP earnings that are influenced by accounting rules that distort underlying operating results.
FFO:
Cash Available for Distribution:
Brookfield Asset Management Q2 FFO reflects $473M gain- Seeking Alpha
Brookfield Asset Management FFO beats by $0.30, misses on revenue -Seeking Alpha
Prior Round-Trip: Net of $171.74
I had totally forgotten about this trade. I bought 100 shares in July 2007, which was not the optimal time to initiate a position. Those shares were sold at a $227.58 but I netted a profit of $171.75 by averaging down including a 15 share purchase that netted at $288.95 gain.
H. Started PRU-Bought 5 at $63.82; 1 at $63.2:
Quote: Prudential Financial Inc.
Closing Price 8/28: PRU $69.64 +$0.28 +0.40%
Average cost per share = $63.72
PRU-Analyst Estimates
Prudential Financial Investor Relations
PRU SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
I can not find any prior common stock purchases other than a 6 share lot that I bought in another taxable account and held for a few days:
I decided to go with a "small ball purchase program" only in my Vanguard account.
I have owned in the past PRU's senior unsecured $1K par value bonds and an exchange traded baby bond PFK which matured in 2018. PFK paid a spread to CPI. (see Item # 3.C. Sold 100 PFK at $26.19 (3/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $81.04); Item # 3 Sold 100 PFK at $26.65 (12/31/13 Post)(profit snapshot $705.51); Item # 3 Sold 100 PFK at $28.25 (profit snapshot $962.38). Par value was $25.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.1 per share, last raised from $1 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment ($4.4 annually per share)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/24/2020 (after purchases)
Yield at $63.72 average cost per share = 6.91%
Credit Ratings for Prudential Financial:
Prudential Financial, Inc. - Ratings
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Adjusted E.P.S. of $1.85 per share vs. consensus at $1.71.
Prudential Financial, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2020 Results
Discussed at Prudential Financial Q2 operating EPS beats even with review adjustment-Seeking Alpha
Broker Reports:
In response to this earnings report, Piper Sandler lifted its PT to $70 from $63; and RBC raised its PT to $70 from $63. Both firms kept their neutral ratings. I do not have access to those reports.
The Credit Suisse analyst has a $64 PT and a neutral rating as of 8/4/2020. That report is available is available to Schwab customers
I. Started FCF-Bought 10 at $7.8:
Quote: First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (Pennsylvania)
Closing Price 8/28: FCF $8.30 -$0.10 -1.19%
FCF is a bank holding company headquartered in Indiana, PA. with 147 community banking offices located in 28 counties throughout western and central Pennsylvania and throughout Ohio. Corporate Profile | First Commonwealth Bank
FCF-Analyst Estimates
FCF SEC Filings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 8/6/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $7.8 = 5.64%
5 Year Financials:
10-K at page 24
Properties as of 12/31/19:
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
NIM was reported at 3.29%, a 46 basis point decrease from the 2019 second quarter due primarily to a 57 basis point decrease in the yield on earnings offset offset in part by a 26 basis point decrease in the cost of interest bearing liabilities.
FCF "continues to defer its adoption of CECL in accordance with relief provided under the U.S. Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (“CARES”) Act"
"First Commonwealth’s capital ratios for Total, Tier I, Leverage and Common Equity Tier I at June 30, 2020 were 14.4%, 11.8%, 9.3%, and 10.7%, respectively."
FCF 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) CEO Mike Price on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha ("first quarter loan deferral figure of $1.1 billion or 17.6% of total loans fell all the way $186 million or 2.7% of total loans as of July 24. Most of our deferrals were 90 days and our approach to customers, consumers, and businesses in March and early April shifted from accommodative and customer service oriented to a more credit-oriented approach in May and June.")
My only round-trip was a 30 share lot sold in 2015, realizing a $90.29 gain.
J. Restarted NRIM-Bought 5 at $22.42:
Quote: Northrim BanCorp Inc. (NRIM)
Closing Price 8/28: NRIM $26.57 +$0.56 +2.15%
Market Cap at $26.57 = $169+M
"Northrim BanCorp, Inc. is the parent company of Northrim Bank, an Alaska-based community bank with 16 branches in Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, Soldotna, Juneau, Fairbanks, Ketchikan, and Sitka, and a loan production office in Kodiak, serving 90% of Alaska’s population; and an asset based lending division in Washington; and a wholly-owned mortgage brokerage company, Residential Mortgage Holding Company, LLC."
NRIM Analyst Estimate (1 analyst)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
NRIM SEC Filings
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
The dividend was increased from $.33 effective for the 2020 first quarter. Northrim BanCorp, Inc.-Dividends
Yield at $22.42 = 6.07%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/10/20
5 Year Financial Data:
10-K at pages 27-28
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): This was an unusually good report due to increased mortgage banking activity.
"net income of $9.90 million, or $1.52 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2020, compared to $1.03 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2020, and $4.26 million, or $0.62 per diluted share, in the second quarter a year ago." (emphasis added)
"Through June 30, 2020, Northrim had funded approximately 2,500 PPP loans totaling $353.5 million to both existing and new customers."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $29.97
A number of loan modifications were in effect as of 6/30/20:
"Nonperforming loans, net of government guarantees, improved during the quarter to $12.7 million at June 30, 2020, compared to $13.4 million at March 31, 2020, and $16.9 million at June 30, 2019. The allowance for loan losses was 162% of nonperforming loans, net of government guarantees at the end of the quarter, compared to 157% three months earlier and 121% a year earlier."
Last Eliminated: Item # 1 Sold 50 NRIM at $20.05 (5/26/11 Post)(+$153.58)
K. Started MFNC-Bought 10 at $9.32:
Quote: Mackinac Financial Corp. (MFNC)
Closing Price 8/28: MFNC $10.18 +$0.57 +5.93%
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
Usually trades with a large bid-ask spread.
Market Cap at $10.18: $107+M
MFNC is a bank holding company whose principal subsidiary is mBank.
"Headquartered in Manistique, Michigan, mBank has 29 branch locations; eleven in the Upper Peninsula, ten in the Northern Lower Peninsula, one in Oakland County, Michigan, and seven in Northern Wisconsin"
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
MFNC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
Properties: The headquarters building is located at 130 South Cedar Street in Manistique Michigan and is owned by MFNC free and clear.
10-K at pages 20-21
Five Year Financial History (page 24 10-K):
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 7/2/20
Yield at $9.32 = 6.01%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Covid-19 Loan Deferrals:
"Tangible book value at quarter-end was $139.88 million, or $13.28 per share outstanding, compared to $133.24 million, or $12.40 per share outstanding at the end of the second quarter 2019." (emphasis added)
Prior Purchases: None.
L. Eliminated KGFHY-Sold 60 at $6.46:
Quote: KGFHY | Kingfisher PLC ADR Overview
Website: Homepage
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$50.94
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Bought 20 KGFHY at $4.645 (9/7/2019 Post)
Prior Round-Trips: Item # 2.A. Sold 100 Kingfisher at $8.41-Used Commission Free Trade (11/9/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.38)-Item # 5 Bought 100 KFGHY at $8 (7/8/17 Post); Item #1 Sold 100 KFGHY at $10.44 (10/6/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.57)
The company eliminated its dividend this year. Kingfisher scraps dividend and delays results
Quote: MILN | Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28/20: MILN $32.28 +$0.19 +0.59%
I have bought this ETF in several of my accounts as a placeholder.
Sponsor's Website: Millennials Thematic ETF
Expense ratio = .5%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Bought 2 MILN at $28.09 (7/11/20 Post)
Top 10 Positions as of 8/25/20:
D. Started FIVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 8 Shares:
Quote: FIVG | Defiance Next Gen Connectivity ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28/20: FIVG $29.76 +$0.26 +0.88%
I discussed a starter position in my Fidelity taxable account here: Item # 2.A. Started FIVG in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $27.6 (8/15/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: The First 5G ETF - FIVG
Expense Ratio: .3%
Top Ten Positions as of 8/26/20:
E. Started TECB in Schwab taxable account-Bought 10 Shares:
Quote: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28: TECB $33.35 +$0.20 +0.60%
I previously discussed starting a position in my Fidelity taxable account. Item # 1.E. Started TECB in Fidelity Account-Bought 5 at $29.76 (8/1/20 Post) I own fewer shares in two Roth IRA accounts.
Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF
Top 10 Positions as of 8/27/20:
CRM moved into the top spot due to its price spurt last week.
F. Restarted MET-Bought 5 at $37.3:
Closing Price 8/28: MET $39.42 +$0.35 +0.90%
MET-Analyst Estimates
MetLife, Inc. - Overview
MET SEC Filings
MET 2019 Annual Report
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
MetLife, Inc. - Stock - Common Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend: 8/3/20 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): MetLife Announces Second Quarter 2020 Results Life insurance company earnings are impossible to comprehend unless you have spent considerable time studying accounting unique to those companies. I have not made any effort in that regard.
This is a summary using MET's words:
"MetLife reported second quarter 2020 premiums, fees and other revenues of $10.5 billion, down 13 percent over the second quarter of 2019. Adjusted premiums, fees and other revenues were $10.4 billion, down 13 percent, and down 11 percent on a constant currency basis from the prior-year period.
Net investment income was $4.1 billion, down 13 percent from the second quarter of 2019. Adjusted net investment income was $3.4 billion, down 24 percent from the prior-year period. The decline in net investment income was primarily driven by a loss in variable investment income, which reflects a one quarter reporting lag for private equity results."
It is important to note the last sentence in that quote. Net investment income declined due to MET's private equity investments that are reported with a one quarter lag, which would have been the first quarter. Private equity results would have improved in the second quarter which will be included in MET's third quarter report.
Broker Reports-Available to Schwab Customers:
S & P (8/7/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $42
Credit Suisse (8/5/20): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $46
Morningstar (5/20/20): 3 stars with a FV of $44
Argus (8/17/20): Buy with a PT of $45
This is a link to a recent article published at SA that is not yet behind a paywall: MetLife Has More Potential Than The Market Seems To Think (NYSE:MET) | Seeking Alpha
The current low interest rate regime is a major negative for MetLife and other life insurance companies. One major operational benefit is that a life insurance company collects premiums that can be invested to earn income for many years prior to being paid out in claims. Yields on fixed income securities have come way down. As higher yielding securities mature, the the yields on reinvestment options will result in lower income.
Prior Trades and Discussions: +$707.67
I last sold MET shares shortly before it completed the spinoff of Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHF) to MET's shareholders (1 BHF share for 11 MET shares). MetLife Completes Spin-Off of Brighthouse Financial
Item #5.A. Sold 106+ MET at $55.13-Eliminated Position (7/19/17 Post) (profit snapshot = $502.7)
Item # 4.A. (6/20/2017 Post) (profit snapshot = $149.48)
Added To METLIFE (MET) - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (11/31/15)
Comment 11/15/16 Mentioned Selling 50 at $54.79
 |
| 2016 MET 50 Shares +$55.49 |
 |
| 2017 MET 55+ Shares +$149.48 |
 |
| 2017 MET 106+ Shares +$502.7 |
Quote: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Cl A (BAM)
Closing Price 8/28/20: BAM $34.84 +$0.25 +0.72%
Average Cost: $32.22
BAM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations: Brookfield Asset Management Inc ("Brookfield Asset Management is a leading global alternative asset manager with approximately $550 billion of assets under management across real estate, infrastructure, renewable power, private equity and credit.")
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Last Ex Dividend Date: Yesterday, 8/28 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Brookfield Asset Management Announces Record $23 billion of Fundraising and Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM) CEO Bruce Flatt on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
SEC Filed Release with More Details This is a complicated report.
I have elected to focus on FFO and cash available for distribution rather than reported GAAP earnings that are influenced by accounting rules that distort underlying operating results.
FFO:
Brookfield Asset Management FFO beats by $0.30, misses on revenue -Seeking Alpha
Prior Round-Trip: Net of $171.74
H. Started PRU-Bought 5 at $63.82; 1 at $63.2:
Closing Price 8/28: PRU $69.64 +$0.28 +0.40%
Average cost per share = $63.72
PRU-Analyst Estimates
Prudential Financial Investor Relations
PRU SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
I decided to go with a "small ball purchase program" only in my Vanguard account.
I have owned in the past PRU's senior unsecured $1K par value bonds and an exchange traded baby bond PFK which matured in 2018. PFK paid a spread to CPI. (see Item # 3.C. Sold 100 PFK at $26.19 (3/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $81.04); Item # 3 Sold 100 PFK at $26.65 (12/31/13 Post)(profit snapshot $705.51); Item # 3 Sold 100 PFK at $28.25 (profit snapshot $962.38). Par value was $25.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.1 per share, last raised from $1 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment ($4.4 annually per share)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/24/2020 (after purchases)
Yield at $63.72 average cost per share = 6.91%
Credit Ratings for Prudential Financial:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Adjusted E.P.S. of $1.85 per share vs. consensus at $1.71.
Discussed at Prudential Financial Q2 operating EPS beats even with review adjustment-Seeking Alpha
Broker Reports:
In response to this earnings report, Piper Sandler lifted its PT to $70 from $63; and RBC raised its PT to $70 from $63. Both firms kept their neutral ratings. I do not have access to those reports.
The Credit Suisse analyst has a $64 PT and a neutral rating as of 8/4/2020. That report is available is available to Schwab customers
I. Started FCF-Bought 10 at $7.8:
Quote: First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (Pennsylvania)
Closing Price 8/28: FCF $8.30 -$0.10 -1.19%
FCF is a bank holding company headquartered in Indiana, PA. with 147 community banking offices located in 28 counties throughout western and central Pennsylvania and throughout Ohio. Corporate Profile | First Commonwealth Bank
FCF-Analyst Estimates
FCF SEC Filings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 8/6/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $7.8 = 5.64%
5 Year Financials:
10-K at page 24
Properties as of 12/31/19:
"Total period-end loans increased $612.8 million from the previous quarter and includes $570.9 million in loans made through the SBA Paycheck Protection Program (“PPP”). Excluding PPP loans, total period-end loans grew $41.9 million, or 2.7% (annualized) from the previous quarter."
FCF "continues to defer its adoption of CECL in accordance with relief provided under the U.S. Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (“CARES”) Act"
"First Commonwealth’s capital ratios for Total, Tier I, Leverage and Common Equity Tier I at June 30, 2020 were 14.4%, 11.8%, 9.3%, and 10.7%, respectively."
FCF 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) CEO Mike Price on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha ("first quarter loan deferral figure of $1.1 billion or 17.6% of total loans fell all the way $186 million or 2.7% of total loans as of July 24. Most of our deferrals were 90 days and our approach to customers, consumers, and businesses in March and early April shifted from accommodative and customer service oriented to a more credit-oriented approach in May and June.")
My only round-trip was a 30 share lot sold in 2015, realizing a $90.29 gain.
J. Restarted NRIM-Bought 5 at $22.42:
Quote: Northrim BanCorp Inc. (NRIM)
Closing Price 8/28: NRIM $26.57 +$0.56 +2.15%
Market Cap at $26.57 = $169+M
"Northrim BanCorp, Inc. is the parent company of Northrim Bank, an Alaska-based community bank with 16 branches in Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, Soldotna, Juneau, Fairbanks, Ketchikan, and Sitka, and a loan production office in Kodiak, serving 90% of Alaska’s population; and an asset based lending division in Washington; and a wholly-owned mortgage brokerage company, Residential Mortgage Holding Company, LLC."
NRIM Analyst Estimate (1 analyst)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
NRIM SEC Filings
5 Year Chart as of 8/28/20:
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
The dividend was increased from $.33 effective for the 2020 first quarter. Northrim BanCorp, Inc.-Dividends
Yield at $22.42 = 6.07%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/10/20
5 Year Financial Data:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): This was an unusually good report due to increased mortgage banking activity.
"net income of $9.90 million, or $1.52 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2020, compared to $1.03 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2020, and $4.26 million, or $0.62 per diluted share, in the second quarter a year ago." (emphasis added)
"Through June 30, 2020, Northrim had funded approximately 2,500 PPP loans totaling $353.5 million to both existing and new customers."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $29.97
A number of loan modifications were in effect as of 6/30/20:
Charge off Ratio for the Quarter: .06%
Last Eliminated: Item # 1 Sold 50 NRIM at $20.05 (5/26/11 Post)(+$153.58)
K. Started MFNC-Bought 10 at $9.32:
Quote: Mackinac Financial Corp. (MFNC)
Closing Price 8/28: MFNC $10.18 +$0.57 +5.93%
Stock Information as of 8/28/20:
Market Cap at $10.18: $107+M
MFNC is a bank holding company whose principal subsidiary is mBank.
"Headquartered in Manistique, Michigan, mBank has 29 branch locations; eleven in the Upper Peninsula, ten in the Northern Lower Peninsula, one in Oakland County, Michigan, and seven in Northern Wisconsin"
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
SEC Filings
Properties: The headquarters building is located at 130 South Cedar Street in Manistique Michigan and is owned by MFNC free and clear.
 |
| Branch Locations |
Five Year Financial History (page 24 10-K):
Last Ex Dividend: 7/2/20
Yield at $9.32 = 6.01%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Tangible book value at quarter-end was $139.88 million, or $13.28 per share outstanding, compared to $133.24 million, or $12.40 per share outstanding at the end of the second quarter 2019." (emphasis added)
Prior Purchases: None.
L. Eliminated KGFHY-Sold 60 at $6.46:
Website: Homepage
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$50.94
Prior Round-Trips: Item # 2.A. Sold 100 Kingfisher at $8.41-Used Commission Free Trade (11/9/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.38)-Item # 5 Bought 100 KFGHY at $8 (7/8/17 Post); Item #1 Sold 100 KFGHY at $10.44 (10/6/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.57)
The company eliminated its dividend this year. Kingfisher scraps dividend and delays results
Q2 pre-close update The shares did pop based on that report released on 7/22.
M. Started VTV-Bought 10 Shares in 1 Share Lots:
Current Position Average Cost at $102.89
Quote: VTV | Vanguard Value ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/28: VTV $108.54 +$0.82 +0.76%
Sponsor's website: VTV - Vanguard Value ETF
Expense Ratio: .04%
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Quote | Morningstar (currently rated at 4 stars)
Total Holdings: 347 as of 7/31/20
Some Top Holdings as of 7/31/20:
Dividends: Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/25/20
Purchase Restriction: Small ball rules on buys and sells. Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce be at the lowest price in the chain. Consideration will be given to selling highest costs lots when profitable as a means to reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Prior Purchases: None that I can recall or find
N. Started UNB in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $18.4:
Quote: Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB)
Closing Price 8/28: UNB $18.87 +$0.12 +0.64%
In my last post, I discussed starting this mini cap regional bank in my Fidelity account. Item # 1.J. Restarted UNB-Bought 5 at $18.5; 5 at $18.19 (8/22/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20
UNB SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32
Last Ex Dividend: 7/24/20
Dividend Yield at $18.4: 6.96%
UNB is a mini cap with a market capitalization near $83M at $18.4. Trading is light with frequently large bid/ask spreads. Relatively small sell or buy orders can have a significant impact on price.
5 Year Financials:
2019 Annual Report at page 22
There was a 3.7M extraordinary charge relating to the termination of the Defined Benefit Pension Plan in 2018. Excluding that one time charge, UNB "would have reported net income of $10.8 million, or $2.42 per share, for the twelve months ended December 31, 2018."
M. Started VTV-Bought 10 Shares in 1 Share Lots:
Current Position Average Cost at $102.89
 |
| Snapshot as of 8/25/20 |
Closing Price 8/28: VTV $108.54 +$0.82 +0.76%
Sponsor's website: VTV - Vanguard Value ETF
Expense Ratio: .04%
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Quote | Morningstar (currently rated at 4 stars)
Total Holdings: 347 as of 7/31/20
Some Top Holdings as of 7/31/20:
Dividends: Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/25/20
Purchase Restriction: Small ball rules on buys and sells. Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce be at the lowest price in the chain. Consideration will be given to selling highest costs lots when profitable as a means to reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Prior Purchases: None that I can recall or find
N. Started UNB in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $18.4:
Quote: Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB)
Closing Price 8/28: UNB $18.87 +$0.12 +0.64%
In my last post, I discussed starting this mini cap regional bank in my Fidelity account. Item # 1.J. Restarted UNB-Bought 5 at $18.5; 5 at $18.19 (8/22/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20
UNB SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32
Last Ex Dividend: 7/24/20
Dividend Yield at $18.4: 6.96%
UNB is a mini cap with a market capitalization near $83M at $18.4. Trading is light with frequently large bid/ask spreads. Relatively small sell or buy orders can have a significant impact on price.
5 Year Financials:
There was a 3.7M extraordinary charge relating to the termination of the Defined Benefit Pension Plan in 2018. Excluding that one time charge, UNB "would have reported net income of $10.8 million, or $2.42 per share, for the twelve months ended December 31, 2018."
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
In his Barron's column published today, Randall Forsyth states, citing TD Bank strategists, that the future's market does not expect an increase in the federal funds rate until late in 2024.
ReplyDeleteThis kind of expectation is fuel for the expansion of stock multiples as is the inflation forecasts predicted by the 10, 20 and 30 year TIPs.
I mentioned in the Markets section that the current expectation is that inflation will average just 1.24% annually over the next 30 years. A 1.24% average annual CPI for the next 30 years is an unrealistic forecast given U.S. history, where the annual annual inflation rate since 1914 is over 3%.
FED suppression of interest rates below the inflation rate for an extended period will contribute to the formation of asset bubbles (stocks and bonds) and eventually a major financial instability event.
Nonetheless, when the herd believes something about the future, it will impact what they are willing to pay now for future earnings.
But the elevation in multiples is mostly just for "growth" companies and would not apply for example to regional banks and other stock sectors that fit in the value category.
For the time being, I am riding the wave up with a percentage stock allocation that is in the high single digits of my total assets held in brokerage accounts. I could jump ship at any time now.
I did pare a mutual fund last week which I will discuss in the next post.
The buying focus is mostly on stocks with yields over 4%; low P/Es based on GAAP earnings; stock prices substantially below February highs; and low price to book value (and tangible book per share for banks). The approach is value contrarian but only in extremely small doses.
My "growth" stock exposure is coming through small ball purchases of ETFs and mutual funds. I mention three of the ETFs in this post: TECB, FIVB, and MILN.
From the tapes ("Lordy there are tapes")
ReplyDeleteJust goes to show - you shouldn't do other people's homework or cheat for them. You never know when that will allow them to get away with well, evil, later in life. Wonder if Maryanne regrets it.
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I know inflation is low, but prices are going up. It's a noticeable impact on what one can afford.
Backwards to inflation caused by a great economy, scarcity could play a roll on some products, especially crops, at pushing prices up. I don't know how that fits in to inflation.
Shiller Ratio is inflation adjusted if I understand it. Still even though high, it's nowhere near as high as 2000. The bubble can grow for quite a while. It does make it clear prices aren't cheap **even** with current inflation. That's the part the seems to be getting missed by market assessments.
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So far I've read that from election to end of year is always a rally no matter who wins. After that, in 2nd year may be another story.
There's angst happening on the dem side, that the race is tightening.
The presidential race is tightening in a few battleground states. Republican political campaigns this year, as in the past, will try to generate as much fear as possible.
DeleteThe GOP playbook this year will be similar to the one that helped Nixon beat Humphrey in 1968. The same issue involving protests, violence and property damage were present then.
In the last election (2018), republicans successfully generated a fear response using the caravans approaching the border. Since the caravan can not be made into an issue now, being non-existent, the GOP has had to find another issue to generate the fear response that they alone can solve. Portland and Kenosha fit this well known tactic that use in elections.
Steve Scalise, the second ranking republican in the House, was tagged by Twitter for retweeting a doctored video that had Biden agreeing to defund the police, something he has expressly stated many times that he would not support. The issue is mostly a local funding issue rather than a federal funding one.
The tape was doctored to insert the word "police" into a question.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/30/21407613/twitter-labels-tweet-scalise-video-ady-barkan-manipulated
Scalise told us about Donald's compassion during his speech at the republican convention. I did not watch it.
From what I read, I learned a lot of things about Donald that I did not know. Donald is a compassionate person, non-divisive, brilliant, had eradicated the Covid-19 pandemic and myriad other problems like the Opioid epidemic and the middle east conflicts, supported racial justice and women's rights, and had drained the D.C. swamp.
By bingo card says green again. Wonder if it's tech green, or rotation green. I need to put work into figuring out what to pick up. The climb isn't stopping. I've been cleaning up the storage area in my house. With the resultant mess spreading to the rest of the house, requiring continued attention until nearly done, to avoid living in a box literally when those are all over and what I keep tripping into.
DeleteOne difference is that in 1968 Nixon wasn't claiming he'd fix up the mess Nixon made.
Trump is claiming he's going to rescue us from being victims of... Trump.
I heard Scalise. It was about 1 min on economics. He was using numbers that magically ended in Feb 2020. I then went to find a sitcom so I would be assaulted with less untruths.
Yes, that image of Donald matches the convention's invention.
I did just hear from my elder relative in Florida that two neighbors were Trump voters and now are undecided. They have concerns about Biden that he's so old and had brain surgery 2xs (turns out true in 1988. I think the risk is gone by now). He's 3 years Trump's elder. It's amazing how much language skill he's learned in those 3 additional years. Can enough people in swing states be reached to shift them or have them stay home, to make this all end?
Land: If Donald does show up in Kenosha next week, it could end up throwing gasoline on the fire.
DeleteOne way to calm things down would be for the police to quit killing unarmed blacks.
That probably has not occurred to republicans who want to turn the violence into political gains for them.
The 1968 riots and violence did occur during the last year of Johnson's presidency and Humphrey was his VP.
The violence now is occurring on Trump's watch so that does create a problem for him.
His solution is to blame Democrat mayors for not imposing "law and order", easier said then done of course; particularly when Donald is inciting more trouble and violent confrontations between Trumpsters and protestors.
Donald's blame game will work IMO on the intended audience and some swing voters in Wisconsin that Biden needs to win.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/kenosha-wisconsin-trump.html
I don't think the Stock Jocks will like it when and if the presidential election results are contested by Trump who will be screaming fraud and filing lawsuits.
That result is a likely one IMO unless Biden wins the battleground states in a landslide which will not happen based on what I foresee now.
++
The value stocks are picking up some support and those are the only ones where I have some comfort level buying now. It is not hard to find stocks yielding more than 4%, selling at less than 10 times TTM GAAP earnings, with low Price to Book ratios (or even at less than tangible book value per share) and beaten down way below their 52 week highs. Hopefully there is less downside risk than with the high flyers for new purchases now.
I discussed buying VTV in this post. My last 2 buy were at $103.67, 102.98 and 100.85. The close last Friday was at $108.54, up .76% The QQQ was up .51%.
Not killing unarmed black people, and arresting police who do, might just calm things down. Go figure.
DeleteI'd be hesitant to believe the uncertainly in a close election will tank this market. End of Oct will be end of several stage 3 vaccine trails. That will get in the way of being bothered by any confusion. They'll probably declare the confusion some kind of vaccine and celebrate it.
The landslide doesn't seem likely. I'm now worrying about winning altogether. Though I hear on TV Biden's been reaching out to MI and local people like church leaders in swing states. There was upset that his travel schedule left out Michigan same as Clinton's did. Hopefully his ability to reach out will improve matters. It didn't appear to be Clinton's strong suit.
I think I've owned VTV years ago, as a way to diversify on value vs growth. I bought both and then would move money to rebalance.
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I had the gallbladder attack shortly before filing my taxes extension. In the process and malaise that lasted after, I forgot to add to my IRA. I've never forgotten. It's frustrating. Do you know of any department that's the right one to write to for an assessment? There may be some wiggle room law based on medical impact in the way. I know the law on funding date to be very firm. But it's worth a letter. I need to call IRS and ask. It's not on my fun things to do list.
Land: As to the 2019 IRA contribution deadline, I am only aware that the deadline was extended by the CARES Act from 5/15/20 to 7/15/20. I am not aware of any wiggle room beyond that 7/15/20 deadline for the 2019 contribution.
DeleteI am not paying much attention to IRA rules now since I am no longer making any contributions. I used the 2008 meltdown to transfer all of my regular IRA accounts into a Roth IRA. I have no intention of drawing upon those Roth IRA assets unless I have no other funds to pay expenses.
That is an excellent idea. If there's another meltdown, to move some of my 401k to Roth. I'd avoided because the mutual funds in it had such low fees since they got the institutional discount. It's now not as relevant. About 1/2 my funds in retirement accounts are in a Roth.
DeleteLand: I was retired in 2008 and started the conversion process during the October 2008 meltdown. There were two reasons.
DeleteWhile I had to pay income taxes on the conversion amount, the tax was calculated on securities that had depreciated in price. As I recall, some assets doubled or tripled in value after the Roth IRA conversion.
The second has to do with the required minimum distributions for regular IRAs. I wanted to avoid those RMDs and leave the ROTH IRA assets alone. I doubt that I will draw a dime from those accounts. I viewed it as advantageous to allow the Roth IRA assets to grow tax free until I have no choice but to withdraw rather than to withdraw based on the IRS age requirements.
Suez S.A. ADR
ReplyDelete$8.60 +1.36 +18.78%
Last Updated: Aug 31, 2020 11:28 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/szsay
I own 200 shares. Today's rally brought me up to a $65 unrealized loss.
The pop today is due to Veolia Environnement offering to buy a 29.9% stake in SUEZ shares owned by Engie S.A. whose ADR is up about 4.6% so far today. The offer price is €15.5 per Suez ordinary share.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200830005013/en/Veolia-Offering-Acquire-29.9-Suez-Engie-Create
As I recall, 1 ADR equals .5 ordinary shares so the €15.5 price would be €7.75 for the ADR. The EUR/USD conversion rate is 1.1954; so the USD equivalent for €7.75 would be about $9.26+ at that exchange rate.
I have not seen any indication that Engie is willing to accept the offer. France owns a 23.6% stake in Engie. A JP Morgan analysis believes Engie will accept. If Engie does sell, then Veolia will make an offer for the rest using the €15.5 price as a reference point and taking into account any significant material events impacting Suez in the interim.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/veolia-makes-offer-for-suez-stake-may-try-to-buy-out-remainder
It looked like a run up into the close. Then one more glance, and there's a downdraft.
ReplyDeleteNone of it means anything. But that's an uncertain market.
Zoom Video Communications Inc.
ReplyDeleteAFTER HOURS $355.10 +30.39 +9.35%
Last Updated: Aug 31, 2020 at 4:43 p.m. EDT
The Stock Jocks are reacting favorably to Zoom's earning's report released after the close.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zoom-makes-as-much-money-in-three-months-as-it-did-in-all-of-2019-stock-heads-toward-more-records-2020-08-31
I do not own the stock but it is a major component in the ETF CLOU which I do own.
Global X Cloud Computing ETF Sponsor's website:
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/clou/
The weighting as of 8/28 was at 6.27%.
ZOOM has a lower weighting (.94% as of 8/28) in another cloud computing ETF, SKYY, which I own.
SKYY has a far greater weightings in large cap stocks like AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, BABA and ORCL.
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfHoldings.aspx?Ticker=SKYY
ZOOM's weighting in FDN, which I also own, is slightly higher at 1.58%.
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfHoldings.aspx?Ticker=FDN
Today, value stock ETFs declined and many of the large cap growth stocks in the Nasdaq kept that index positive throughout the day, closing up .68%. The ETF VTV, a proxy for value stocks, closed down .84%.
Tesla has become the 7th largest U.S. company by market cap.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-passes-visa-to-become-seventh-largest-us-company-by-market-cap-2020-08-31?mod=home-page
Northrim BanCorp Inc. (NRIM)
ReplyDelete$26.91 +$0.34 +$1.28%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nrim
NRIM increased its quarterly dividend from $.34 to $.35:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/28/2085457/0/en/Northrim-BanCorp-Inc-Declares-Quarterly-Cash-Dividend-of-0-35-per-Share.html#:~:text=28%2C%202020%20(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE),business%20on%20September%2010%2C%202020.
This is the second 1 cent increase in the quarterly penny rate this year. The first increase was effective for the 2020 first quarter with the penny rate raised from $.33 paid in the 2019 4th quarter to $.34 per share.
I discuss a purchase in Item # 4.J. of this post.
Fear and Greed indicator is in greed. But not extreme yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
ReplyDelete$126.72 +$3.3199 +2.69%
Last Updated: Sep 2, 2020 11:22 a.m. EDT
I own a few IBM shares as a bond substitute. I did not see any news today that would account for IBM moving up while new tech stocks like Zoom, which passed IBM in market cap, earlier this week, are declining some.
IBM does have a cloud business:
https://www.ibm.com/cloud/products?lnk=hpmps_bucl
However, it is hard to detect any Stock Jock interest in the stock looking based on chart starting in January 2013 when the price closed over $213.
+++
In his interview with the friendly Laura Ingraham, Donald proved once again that he is "bat shit crazy" to use words attributed to Sean Hannity.
I read the transcript and only crazy people talk like Trump. That is not an opinion, but a fact. And, one does not need to be a shrink to make that obvious diagnosis.
My favorite moment was when Donald blamed Democrat governors for several conferences suspending football games this fall. The rationale is that they control the traffic lights and stop signs and want to hurt Donald.
The conferences are making the decision to cancel or suspend based on the out-of-control pandemic. The SEC is one of the few conferences proceeding with play but it remains to be seen how far they will get before having to call it off. Vanderbilt, located in Nashville, had to suspend practice based on an outbreak among players and staff.
https://vanderbilthustler.com/33743/featured/breaking-multiple-vanderbilt-football-players-test-positive-for-covid-19/
The worst than expected ADP private payroll report for August is either being ignored by the Stock Jocks or is viewed as a positive.
ReplyDeleteThe expectation was for +1.17M and ADP reported 428K.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/private-payrolls-grow-by-428000-but-miss-expectations-adp-report-says.html
The ten year treasury responded as expected, declining about 3 basis points to .645%.
Electric utility stocks have been struggling since intermediate and longer term treasuries moved up slightly in yield last month.
Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Last Updated: Sep 2, 2020 1:51 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/xlu
While I have been nibbling at several utilities including adding to my DUK position since I last discussed a purchase here, their appeal is not based on valuation but yield in a current low interest rate environment projected by the Bond Ghouls to last for an extended period of time.
Duke Energy Corp.
$81.50 +$2.29 +2.89%
YIELD 4.73%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/duk
I will continue selling my highest cost DUK lots profitably from time to time, reducing my average cost per. The next sell, if any, would be around $90 (a 5 share lot with a $89.4 cost basis). The lowest price lot was bought at $65.7 on 3/23/20.
Today's climb doesn't have reason that I can see.
DeleteUSA is opting out of the international alliance to fairly share a vaccine when one is available.
That ADP report is not even a near miss.
I think there's just the assumption that after phase 3, there will be a vaccine and we're all buying for the recovery period. Either that or there's some news coming the big investors know about already.
Land: El-Erian claimed that big investors were preparing their portfolios for a crash through derivative trades.
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pros-are-getting-ready-for-a-market-crash-retail-investors-not-so-much-top-economist-warns-11598970447
Markit did release its latest PMI for U.S. manufacturing earlier today. The final reported August number was at 53.1. Markit releases flash reports with incomplete data. The flash manufacturing PMI for August was at 53.6, so I do not see that report as a reason justifying the robust rise today.
That makes sense. In the past I've found El-Erian more thoughtful and spot on than most. He's been more bearish than most through this so I've started to keep that in mind.
DeleteBut meanwhile, I'd read a similar article (I think posted to a prior blog), saying that options have started getting bloated again and are an indicator of crash concerns by those who are more sophisticated (i.e. big money).
So there isn't certainty of a crash nor any sense of it's timing, not enough to outright short. But certainty of enough worry to put on insurance via hedging. That's what it seems like.
NY & MD are opening up into higher stages of their plans. (3 vs 2 I think).
Maybe the plasma idea is doing it. It's helpful, but still not a fix for the bigger problem. Something has the market exuberant.
DeleteIf I'd bought weeks ago... which I didn't. I can't bring myself to buy after it's run up for the day. So may be tomorrow during the short 11:30 pullback to still higher than today.
WSJ is saying stimulus deal and vaccine hopes. I didn't read most of it (paywall).
Deletehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-9-02-2020-11599039549
What makes investors think a deal is coming soon? Going back from vacation, doesn't change the two sides' stance.
It's getting stranger. Zoom, Apple and Tesla down. Crowdstrick now down on a beat. Doesn't match to such a strong day up.
DeleteLand: As to the plasma treatment, Dr. Don and his toad at the FDA misled the public about the efficacy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.factcheck.org/2020/08/trump-hahn-mischaracterize-data-on-covid-19-convalescent-plasma/
A NIH panel concluded there was no scientific evidence of efficacy or safety.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/nih-panel-refutes-fdas-claims-of-the-benefits-of-coronavirus-plasma-treatment.html
Donald lies all of the time about matters relating to the pandemic. Unfortunately, he is viewed as honest by 81% of republicans and 32% of independents.
As to a vaccine, one or more may be approved before year end. The approval standard is 50% or higher effectiveness with no major side effects.
If less than 50% take the vaccine and it is 50% effective, there will not be herd immunity even if immunity lasts for a long time when it is generated by the vaccine. Immunity may only last for a few months when present.
The FDA and CDC have possibly already permanently damaged their credibility on matters relating to Covid prevention and treatments.
I will discuss the reasons why in the next post, but most of those deal with Dr. Don and his new "expert", Dr. Scot Atlas, calling the shots now.
Atlas has no training on infectious diseases but he is the person that Donald listens to now. Atlas was behind the CDC recommendation that people who are asymptomatic who have had personal contact with infected persons do not need to be tested. Atlas does not believe that there is any evidence that masks help, even though there is an abundance of scientific evidence. He also rejects all scientific studies that have found that infected children can transmit the disease.
Atlas is also pushing a herd immunity without a vaccine approach that Donald is IMO following de facto.
In this approach, everyone goes about their business as normal except for added protections for nursing home residents and other at risk people. Without an effective vaccine, achieving herd immunity will sacrifice at least 1M Americans which is acceptable to this crowd provided a return to normalcy now helps Donald win reelection.
+++
The stock market could experience a serious downdraft at any moment but I could have said the same at anytime starting in July.
I believe the Stock Jocks are in an irrational exuberance phase that will eventually pop leaving those buying at the top as road kill.
Besides market dynamics, broadly defined as herd buying in bulk of stocks that go up a lot, the fundamental longer term secular forces facilitating an expansion of multiples primarily in larger growth stocks are a herd consensus that inflation and interest rates will remain low for an extending period, measured in decades not years.
It does not matter if that long term prediction is pure fantasy since no one really knows and how do you rebut this future prediction with current or past data.
It is only important that the Stock Jocks believe it which they currently do.
There are some economic data that is better than expected, but that may change soon without more federal stimulus and greater infection and death rates during the fall and winter. I do not have much hope that a deal will be reached before the election, but apparently both sides are still talking.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/coronavirus-stimulus-update-pelosi-mnuchin-talk-about-relief-bill.html
Buying into this rout? Or waiting for more rout?
ReplyDeleteIt's so much down for a single morning. I'm not seeing the trigger. The unemployment came in as an improvement. Maybe about big money adjusting moving into fall? There's often been a downturn in Sept. Fauci said vaccine in Oct is unlikely. That could be it - even though it wasn't sensible to believe there would be one in the first place.
The problem with motivation to buy in, is that it's barely a dent in the recent run up. But it's be annoying to miss yet another opportunity before yet another irrational bubble upward.
I've got CNBC on. Tesla is up 400% this year? Wow that is off the wall. I avoid Tesla. It's too erratic for me.
Land: I view the recent parabolic spike in growth stocks and the slight downturn, which started yesterday, as based primarily on market dynamic events rather than being primarily fundamentally driven.
DeleteThe fundamentals for Tesla and other stocks, which have experienced parabolic price spikes, do not justify the spikes IMO.
Tesla is currently at $414.72 -$32.65 (-7.30%). That stock closed at $140.26 just on 5/1/20.
I did some selling in the first hour but have been content to do nothing since then.
At the conclusion of yesterday's robust stock rally (9/2/20), the VIX closed at 26.47, up .45. The VIX has been trending back up since closing at 22.03 on 8/25/20. The VIX is currently at 30.42 as of 11:18 EST:
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX
The recent parabolic spike in stock indexes was not-confirmed by the VIX movement. Since the "Trigger Event" in March, the lowest close in the VIX was at 21.35 on 8/17/20. There have not been an intra-day move below 20 since the March volatility event. The lowest intra-day number was at 20.28 on 8/11/20. The highest close during the March volatility event was at 82.59.
The March Trigger Event produced the kind of volatility readings that historically require about 1 year before the VIX can return to steady and non-temporary movement below 20.
The vix pattern since March is defined by me as an Unstable VIX Pattern, which translates into more of trader's market environment of buying the dips and selling the rips.
Earlier today, the value stock VTV was bucking the downtrend in growth stocks. When the Nasdaq and QQQ names started to accelerate their downturn, they took the value stock ETFs with them, as I would expect.
Still VTV is currently down -.88% compared to QQQ at -4.02%. Both started to turn up at 11:18 A.M. EDT.
I used the rally in VTV earlier this morning to sell 2 of my highest cost shares profitably in a Roth IRA account. I did not sell any shares in taxable accounts.
There is an anomaly IMO. Treasury bonds are rising in price which is normally negatively correlated with regional bank stocks.
So far, regional banks are up:
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$39.35 +$0.37 (+0.95%)
As of 11:47 AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRE/?p=KRE
The regional bank stocks have been beaten up this year with KRE down 31.67% with dividends reinvested through yesterday.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/kre/quote
If the forecast is that the economy is over the hump and is currently in a V shaped recovery, then loan loss provisioning may have topped out already which would leave NIM compression as the major headwind.
Those VIX moves are interesting.
DeletePsychologically I'd expect the market to rally until VIX in the 20s before the pullback and normalizing in prices can happen.
There will be jawboning if this gets moving much to the downside.
Jonathan Krinsky is pointing out Nasdaq is still 7% above 50 day MA. So technically, it needs to burn that off with time or more downside.
A lot of the medical stocks have sunk recently. That's curious given the excitement has supposedly been about vaccines. PFE for instance is down rather than up.
ReplyDeleteLand: PFE announced that the results will probably be known in October which is not the same as saying their vaccine candidate was effective and safe. One fact to keep in mind is that this vaccine has to be stored at negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit. That will make distribution more difficult and will limit potential distribution outlets.
ReplyDeleteThe health care stocks are not going to buck a downtrend like today.
Yesterday had a flavor or a blow off top but it is premature to draw any conclusions. There is a rotation out of some stocks that have experience parabolic price stocks into "value" stocks. My Fidelity account is down .07% at the moment. When my individual bonds are priced tonight by Fidelity's third party service, I will probably be in the green. My portfolios are conservative.
Andrew Bary published a column in Barron's yesterday where he noted that Apple's market capitalization exceeded the combined total of all stocks in the S & P 500 consumers staple index and was almost as large as the "energy, utilities, and materials sectors combined."
The consumer staples sector includes 33 stocks. Among those stocks are Procter & Gamble,
Walmart, PepsiCo Inc, Coca-Cola, Costco Wholesale, General Mills, Colgate-Palmolive, Kimberly-Clark, Kroger, Walgreens, Sysco, Altria, Philip Morris International, Mondelez, and Clorox.
"negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit" Yikes.
DeleteHealth care are down compared to a month ago. PFE at 36.xx not 38.xx. Gild at not in 70's. A couple others made it look like a trend.
I missed the flavor of blow off top. What I had noticed were big momentum tech stocks selling off into a strong index rally. It was not usual at all. So maybe that's what a blow off top looks like, and I have no idea how to identify one? (I know I have no idea.)
Rotation isn't a top? It's a healthy shift in sectors?
That % of index is off balance. That's huge.
Some buying happened into the close.
The election could be impacting mood. With media at home and without their usual hangout connections, they aren't using their usual abilities to post even what the big obvious mood factors are.
I just looked at the futures charts on finviz. That drop today IS different than the drops on the way up this climb. Something's shifted. Question is whether it will get deeper by much, or this was enough.
DeleteLand: I doubt that the Stock Jocks are thinking about the election since that is light years away in SJ time.
DeleteI did some light buying when the DJIA was down about 1K points. Light is a gross exaggeration. For example, I bought 5 shares of Cisco at $40.75, bringing my small ball position up to 10 shares. I also bought 1 share of AMCX at $21.99. Both stocks have been shellacked.
AMCX is near its 52 week low. That brings me up to about 5 AMCX shares. (52 week range: $19.62 to $52.36, closed today at $22.29). AMC faces a long term decline in subscribers. Recent results have been hit by a downturn in advertising due to the pandemic.
Cisco was deservedly smashed after its last earnings report.
I suppose the election hasn't hit the market yet. It's still two months away! Debates to happen.
Delete....like they're going to change anyone's mind. Same as the conventions didn't.
But okay, I get their point, 2 months is a long time in on an SJ clock. Much crazy can happen in that time.
The regional bank stocks, which are an economically sensitive sector, are responding favorably to the BLS jobs report released prior to the open.
ReplyDeleteSPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$40.31 +1.30 +3.33%
Last Updated: Sep 4, 2020 at 9:50 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
The S & P 500 was down .07% at 9:50.
While I am skeptical of the BLS report, since it is inconsistent with other data including the ADP private payrolls report and the BLS initial unemployment claims reports released last month, sometimes, frequently may be a more appropriate description, what is believed to be real is more important than what is real.
What is believed to be real now is that the economy is in a V shaped recovery, and that belief translates into a less than feared loan losses for the regional banks. I doubt that scenario but it is what it is as Donald would say.
NIM compression was hurting the stock prices before the pandemic, with most of the regional bank stocks that I follow topping out in 2017-2018. The pandemic caused a major plunge in their prices this year. Just as a rule of thumb, I look at the February prices to try and gauge the negative impact flowing from the pandemic, recession and related loan losses.
I did nibble on the Fidelity financial ETF FNCL with just a 5 share purchase and the Vanguard Financial ETF (VFH) with a 2 share purchase.
It does not look like the DJIA and SPX are going to hold onto their early morning gains, now being dragged down by more negative price action in the Nasdaq.
DeleteNASDAQ Composite Index
11,218.24 -239.86 -2.09%
Last Updated: Sep 4, 2020 at 9:58 a.m. EDT
I mentioned the Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF in my last comment.
I bought 5 shares at $35.28 on 8/26/20 and will discuss the purchase down the road. Through yesterday, the YTD is -18.69%.
So far, this ETF is holding onto a gain:
$36.01 +0.515 +1.45%
Last Updated: Sep 4, 2020 at 9:59 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fncl
Another bank factor was fear of bank collapse from 2008. But this time banks are more shored up. Absolute economic collapse doesn't seem to be coming. So with the Fed supporting liquidity, they aren't the weak point this time. They're getting hit but not lead the collapse the way they did in 2008.
DeleteThe BLS seems like the outlier. But it didn't boost the market, and ADP didn't tank it.
I do not understanding what's motivating the market moves right now. They appear to be purely and completely technical. But what was the trigger yesterday? No idea. Today was a move down the the 50day MA and a bounce off it.
I will do what everyone else will, over the weekend, look at what to buy. And Tuesday will be a rally day. Can't tell at all if the mood after that will continue back into sell off, or the uber optimism will take back over.
This is a link to the Atlantic article that is causing a stir:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/
Donald denied today calling John McCain a loser Journalists quickly found a tweet where he called McCain a loser in 2015.
That's it? That article? The article is a huge deal, but I can't believe that's effecting the market. Especially since the move yesterday was before the article.
DeleteThe article was backed by a separate journalist who said his separate sources backed it all up in it's entirety.
No one relevant's come forward to disclaim it.
Land: The Atlantic article is not relevant to the Stock Jocks IMO.
DeleteIf General Kelly is one of the sources, he needs to publicly confirm. Kelly was a 4 star Marine general before becoming Donald's Chief of Staff.
Donald reportedly questioned the sacrifice of Kelly's son who was killed while on patrol in Afghanistan in 2010.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-questioned-kellys-sons-sacrifice-on-memorial-day-grave-visit-2020-9
I keep saying 50 day MA. It's the 20day MA.
ReplyDeleteThis drop isn't a momentum change or any thing more than a little burn off, until at least the 50 day is broken, and it lasts long enough for the 200 day to be approached.
VIX is down during this sell off.
ReplyDeleteA lot of taking gains in options. That's what guests are saying on MSNBC too.
I'm waiting for 2:30 then thinking of buying before the 3pm end of day moves.
Land: Normally I would do some scatter shot buying during a VIX spike but the stocks that I would buy are mostly up in price.
DeleteI view the recent action to be driven by non-fundamental factors, both the spike up and spike down.
This may be one explanation:
"SoftBank is the ‘Nasdaq whale’ that has bought billions of dollars’ worth of US equity derivatives in a move that stoked the fevered rally in big tech stocks before a sharp pullback on Thursday.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/softbanks-bets-on-hot-tech-stocks-may-have-fueled-techs-big-rally-51599239365
Bought 14 PFE at 36.20.
ReplyDeleteIt's down from higher points. Good div. Okay P/E and balance sheet. Intended as hold until a bounce.
They have a vaccine in the works, so I expect a bounce sometime on the various drug companies with a vaccine in the works.
Skipped buying GILD. It's down in it's trading range. But this stock struggles.
Like to get a little AMGN but not here. 20pe seems too rich for drug company. It's had recent lower points too, so at least will wait for those again.
Capital Southwest Corp. 5.95% Notes Due 12/15/22
ReplyDelete$25.14 $0.0853 +0.34%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cswcl
I own this baby bond in at least two accounts.
The issuer has elected to partially redeem this bond at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/17313/000001731320000096/ex991-noticeofpartialr.htm
In my Vanguard account, I noticed that the shares to be redeemed have been already been segregated that prevents me from selling them. The shares in my Schwab account have not been segregated. If I sold the entire position today, I would have to buy back the shares subject to partial redemption.
I discussed buy a few shares here:
Item # 3.A. Bought 10 CSWCL at $22.25
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/axpra-brg-cfg-ddt-duk-fsk-igr-irt-jri.html
CNBC guests are claiming it's a rotation out of high flying tech but keep repeating "but not everything is selling off."
ReplyDeleteThat's not a good take. The selloffs always seem to start off with high flyer or growth. Whether it's going to continue selling off, doesn't depend on that.
Land: I can see a rotation in price happening, with the high flyers declining and "value" stocks either going down a lot less or managing gains today and/or yesterday.
DeleteFinancials are also getting a lift today due to interest rates rising. Hope springs eternal that NIM may start to expand. Gains in regional bank stock were superb in 2013 when the ten year treasury spike in yield, hitting a high point of 3.04% on 12/31/2013, starting from around 1.66% in May.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2013
KRE had a total return of 47.5% that year.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/kre/performance
Most of my small ball buys recently have been in that sector, focusing on stocks selling at below tangible book value per share, selling at less than 12 times TTM GAAP, and yielding over 4%.
An example, which I may discuss in about a month, was a purchase of FFNW one day before the 9/3/20 ex dividend date. This one is thinly traded so I used a below market limit order that was filled at $9.55 on 9/2/20:
First Financial Northwest Inc.
$9.84 +0.12 +1.23%
P/E RATIO 10.98
YIELD 4.06%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ffnw
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $15.14 as of 6/30/20
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401564/000093905720000298/ffnw8k72820exh991.htm
The bank had no charge offs and the non-performing loan to total loan ratio was only .19%. Those ratios are likely to increase in the months ahead however as some borrowers, currently in loan modifications, fail to make it.
I view GILD as a likely value trap, but entry at the current price may be tradable, particularly for a dividend harvest.
I view PFE as a bond substitute. My consider to entry points are at less than $32. AT & T and IBM are two others that I own with that limited objective.
I started to buy 340.10 SPY all of 2 shares. But missed just as it started climbing.
ReplyDeleteI put that order back in after hours. Doubt it will get back there.
I still don't understand what's happening. There's a big break. Why all of a sudden? There's usually a catalyst even if it's a technical move.
Without a hint of why now, I can't guess what's next.
PS - I plan to look around over the weekend to see if the why starts to shine through, while looking at buy-ables...
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/09/aiv-bdge-dcomp-ebmt-gdo-htprd-isbc-nwbi.html