Economy:
Fed staff lowers forecast for economic growth over rest of year: FOMC minutes - MarketWatch
In its last GDP forecast, the FED assumed that Congress would pass another substantial fiscal stimulus package that has not happened yet.
Excerpt from Fed 7-28-29 Meeting Minutes (released 8/19):
Housing starts soar 22.6% in July as Americans re-enter the housing market in droves - MarketWatch (up 23.4% Y-O-Y)
Fed staff lowers forecast for economic growth over rest of year: FOMC minutes - MarketWatch
In its last GDP forecast, the FED assumed that Congress would pass another substantial fiscal stimulus package that has not happened yet.
Excerpt from Fed 7-28-29 Meeting Minutes (released 8/19):
Walmart says consumer spending dropped as stimulus checks ran out Two possible reasons for the spending surge were stimulus money (both the one time checks and the additional $600 per week in unemployment benefits) and no vacations spending due to the pandemic that resulted in more money being spent at Target, Amazon, WMT, etc.
$300 unemployment boost may last for only for 3 weeks Donald is draining FEMA's disaster relief funds to make these payments. Recent storms will eat into FEMA's remaining funds. Federal Register :: Iowa; Major Disaster and Related Determinations Prior to those recent natural disasters, it was estimated that FEMA could make payments for 4 weeks. The $300 per week additional unemployment payments paid by FEMA at Donald's direction will start no earlier than 3 weeks from 8/8/20. How long will it take new $300 unemployment aid to be paid by states
July Existing home sales spike a record 24.7% as prices set a new high The supply of existing homes plummeted 21.2% annually. The median price rose 8.5% to $304,100. I suspect that there are fewer existing homes for sale due to the pandemic. Existing-Home Sales Continue Record Pace, Soar 24.7% in July | www.nar.realtor
China’s Weak Consumer Recovery Is Bad for China—And World Trade - Barron's
New Weekly jobless claims Back over 1 Million (1.11M week ending 8/15)
El-Erian: Coronavirus small business devastation threatens capitalism
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index slows for second straight month in August - MarketWatch (fell 7 points to 17.2; any number over zero indicates expansion)
July Existing home sales spike a record 24.7% as prices set a new high The supply of existing homes plummeted 21.2% annually. The median price rose 8.5% to $304,100. I suspect that there are fewer existing homes for sale due to the pandemic. Existing-Home Sales Continue Record Pace, Soar 24.7% in July | www.nar.realtor
China’s Weak Consumer Recovery Is Bad for China—And World Trade - Barron's
New Weekly jobless claims Back over 1 Million (1.11M week ending 8/15)
El-Erian: Coronavirus small business devastation threatens capitalism
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index slows for second straight month in August - MarketWatch (fell 7 points to 17.2; any number over zero indicates expansion)
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 8/22/20:
Trailing 12 Month GAAP: 35.35
Forward 12 Month Estimated Non-GAAP: 26.17
P/E & Yields
This is all very strange to me. The S & P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs last week, notwithstanding a worldwide recession and pandemic, both with currently unknown durations. Whatever, I am not going to chase.
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 8/22/20:
Trailing 12 Month GAAP: 35.35
Forward 12 Month Estimated Non-GAAP: 26.17
P/E & Yields
This is all very strange to me. The S & P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs last week, notwithstanding a worldwide recession and pandemic, both with currently unknown durations. Whatever, I am not going to chase.
Goldman Sachs just lifted its S&P 500 price target. Here’s why - MarketWatch GS increased its yearend target to 3,600 from 3000. The 2021 GS earnings estimate for the S & P 500 is currently at $170. That estimate would be non-GAAP.
After the S&P 500’s record run, UBS says look here for the next stock winners-MarketWatch In addition to value stocks and other sectors that have lagged behind growth stocks, this firm is recommending "companies involved in 5G and other enabling technologies."
Here’s why stock prices are unsustainable, according to this fund manager - MarketWatch
A strategy to outsmart the S&P 500 ‘bubble’ - MarketWatch (small cap value vs. large cap growth; citing, for example, VIOV | Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF Overview | MarketWatch )
Did Warren Buffett just bet against the U.S. economy? His latest investment raises some questions - MarketWatch Buffett sold some bank stocks and bought Barrick Gold Corp.
Walmart (WMT) Q2 2021 earnings beat
Target (TGT) Q2 2020 earnings blew away estimates
Kohl's (KSS) reports Q2 2020 loss per share
Ross Stores' Q2 sales down by 33% - MarketWatch
Struggling retailers rush to file for bankruptcy as fear of a second wave lingers
Intel announces $10B accelerated share buyback, reversing suspension - Seeking Alpha
Banks will need to add more to loan-loss reserves, S&P Global says -Seeking Alpha
Gladstone Commercial's August rent collections are steady with July's (NASDAQ:GOOD) | Seeking Alpha I own Gladstone Commercial's common and preferred stocks.
Covid Vaccine Update: BioNTech and Pfizer’s Vaccine Could Lead the Pack - Barron's I own a few shares of Pfizer as a bond substitute.
++++
Kimco Bond Redemption:
A major difference between $1K par value bonds and exchange traded bonds is that the former frequently has "make whole provisions" that are triggered by the issuer's exercise of an optional redemption prior to maturity. Exchange traded bonds can be called at par value, usually 5 years after the IPO date. The "make whole provision" attempts to compensate the owner for the lost interest and to restrain the issuer from early redemptions when the make whole premium makes an early redemption uneconomic.
Kimco is redeeming next week my two 3.2% senior unsecured bonds that would otherwise mature on 5/1/2021.
Par value is $2,000, but the make whole provision tacks on another $29.61 that has to be paid in addition to accrued and unpaid interest.
I bought this bond last April. Item # 3.C. Bought 2 Kimco 3.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/21 at a Total Cost of 99.325 As noted in that post, Kimco could have avoided the make whole payment by redeeming 2 months prior to maturity.
Kimco raised the proceeds to redeem by selling $400M of 1.9% coupon bonds maturing in 2028. Prospectus, see Use of Proceeds section at page S-8
After this 2012 bond is redeemed, I will own 1 Kimco SU bond that matures in 2023. Item # 1.A. Bought 1 Kimco 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 6/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.328(3/13/2017 Post); Bonds Detail (last traded at 105.36)
After the S&P 500’s record run, UBS says look here for the next stock winners-MarketWatch In addition to value stocks and other sectors that have lagged behind growth stocks, this firm is recommending "companies involved in 5G and other enabling technologies."
Here’s why stock prices are unsustainable, according to this fund manager - MarketWatch
A strategy to outsmart the S&P 500 ‘bubble’ - MarketWatch (small cap value vs. large cap growth; citing, for example, VIOV | Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF Overview | MarketWatch )
Did Warren Buffett just bet against the U.S. economy? His latest investment raises some questions - MarketWatch Buffett sold some bank stocks and bought Barrick Gold Corp.
Walmart (WMT) Q2 2021 earnings beat
Target (TGT) Q2 2020 earnings blew away estimates
Kohl's (KSS) reports Q2 2020 loss per share
Ross Stores' Q2 sales down by 33% - MarketWatch
Struggling retailers rush to file for bankruptcy as fear of a second wave lingers
Intel announces $10B accelerated share buyback, reversing suspension - Seeking Alpha
Banks will need to add more to loan-loss reserves, S&P Global says -Seeking Alpha
Gladstone Commercial's August rent collections are steady with July's (NASDAQ:GOOD) | Seeking Alpha I own Gladstone Commercial's common and preferred stocks.
Covid Vaccine Update: BioNTech and Pfizer’s Vaccine Could Lead the Pack - Barron's I own a few shares of Pfizer as a bond substitute.
++++
Kimco Bond Redemption:
A major difference between $1K par value bonds and exchange traded bonds is that the former frequently has "make whole provisions" that are triggered by the issuer's exercise of an optional redemption prior to maturity. Exchange traded bonds can be called at par value, usually 5 years after the IPO date. The "make whole provision" attempts to compensate the owner for the lost interest and to restrain the issuer from early redemptions when the make whole premium makes an early redemption uneconomic.
Kimco is redeeming next week my two 3.2% senior unsecured bonds that would otherwise mature on 5/1/2021.
I bought this bond last April. Item # 3.C. Bought 2 Kimco 3.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/1/21 at a Total Cost of 99.325 As noted in that post, Kimco could have avoided the make whole payment by redeeming 2 months prior to maturity.
Kimco raised the proceeds to redeem by selling $400M of 1.9% coupon bonds maturing in 2028. Prospectus, see Use of Proceeds section at page S-8
After this 2012 bond is redeemed, I will own 1 Kimco SU bond that matures in 2023. Item # 1.A. Bought 1 Kimco 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 6/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.328(3/13/2017 Post); Bonds Detail (last traded at 105.36)
++++++++
Trump:
A federal district court judge appointed by Donald ordered the Trump Campaign to produce evidence of voter fraud by mail, and the campaign did not produce any. Trump campaign fails to show evidence of vote-by-mail fraud, filing reveals
But, in Trump's America and among republicans generally, evidence is Fake News and not even relevant to support Donald's claims intended to undermine voter confidence in the election results.
President Trump invokes ‘blood-stained sidewalks of Chicago’ in attack on Joe Biden - Chicago Tribune
Trump: “If you want a vision of your life under a Biden presidency, think of the smoldering ruins of Minneapolis, the violent anarchy of Portland, the blood-stained sidewalks of Chicago, and imagine the mayhem coming to your town and every single town in America. You’re not going to have law and order.”
My nephew remarked to me last week that Trump did not have a pitch for the upcoming election. Donald does have a pitch. He will save suburban white women from being raped by hoards of Antifa black and brown people.
Trump told Sean Hannity of Fox "news" last Thursday that he was going to send law enforcement and U.S. Attorneys to polling places this November.
Trump: "We’re going to have everything. We’re going to have sheriffs, and we’re going to have law enforcement and we’re going to have hopefully U.S. attorneys and we’re going to have everybody, and attorney generals.” Trump says he will send law enforcement, US attorneys to polls in November to prevent fraud | TheHill Hannity just fawned over Donald in his usual servile manner.
Trump’s suggestion of deploying law enforcement officials to monitor polls raises specter of voting intimidation - The Washington Post Perhaps Donald could have those law enforcement officers point their weapons at any person of color who attempts to vote, or just hold their weapons and look menacing at them like that St. Louis couple who will be featured at the GOP's convention as American heroes in Trump's America next week. St. Louis couple who pointed guns at protesters to speak at Republican convention
Look's like Donald favorite leader may have grown tired of a token opposition figure, now viewed as unnecessary when the Dear Leader is President for Life just like Donald's other favorite leader Kim. The Suspected Poisoning of Alexey Navalny, Putin’s Most Prominent Adversary | The New Yorker
Final Report on Russian Interference and Ties to Trump Is Released by G.O.P.-Led Senate Panel - The New York Times
Manafort was ‘grave counterintelligence threat’ due to Russian contacts, Senate panel says-POLITICO; Bipartisan Senate Intel report details Trump campaign contacts with Russia in 2016, adding to Mueller findings
Six revelations in Senate intel report on 2016 Russian interference
Trump stated under oath that he didn't discuss hacked emails with Roger Stone. A bipartisan Senate report says he did.
Trump retweets Russian propaganda about Biden that US intel agencies say is intended to influence 2020 election (8/21/20)
Senate committee made criminal referral of Trump Jr., Bannon, Kushner, two others to federal prosecutors The referrals were made in June 2019 and Barr, of course, did nothing. Senate committee sought investigation of Bannon, raised concerns about Trump family testimony - Los Angeles Times
Despot Don wants Americans to boycott Goodyear Tire, the only major U.S. tire manufacturer among the big 4 as noted by the true conservative Bill Kristol below. Goodyear has over 60K employees and is a major employer in the swing state of Ohio.
As noted by Donald, Goodyear committed a cardinal sin in Trump's America by banning MAGA HATS in the workplace. Goodyear would ban a Biden hat as well. If Donald's boycott takes off, Goodyear may have to layoff American workers in response.
A federal district court judge appointed by Donald ordered the Trump Campaign to produce evidence of voter fraud by mail, and the campaign did not produce any. Trump campaign fails to show evidence of vote-by-mail fraud, filing reveals
But, in Trump's America and among republicans generally, evidence is Fake News and not even relevant to support Donald's claims intended to undermine voter confidence in the election results.
President Trump invokes ‘blood-stained sidewalks of Chicago’ in attack on Joe Biden - Chicago Tribune
Trump: “If you want a vision of your life under a Biden presidency, think of the smoldering ruins of Minneapolis, the violent anarchy of Portland, the blood-stained sidewalks of Chicago, and imagine the mayhem coming to your town and every single town in America. You’re not going to have law and order.”
My nephew remarked to me last week that Trump did not have a pitch for the upcoming election. Donald does have a pitch. He will save suburban white women from being raped by hoards of Antifa black and brown people.
Trump told Sean Hannity of Fox "news" last Thursday that he was going to send law enforcement and U.S. Attorneys to polling places this November.
Trump: "We’re going to have everything. We’re going to have sheriffs, and we’re going to have law enforcement and we’re going to have hopefully U.S. attorneys and we’re going to have everybody, and attorney generals.” Trump says he will send law enforcement, US attorneys to polls in November to prevent fraud | TheHill Hannity just fawned over Donald in his usual servile manner.
Trump’s suggestion of deploying law enforcement officials to monitor polls raises specter of voting intimidation - The Washington Post Perhaps Donald could have those law enforcement officers point their weapons at any person of color who attempts to vote, or just hold their weapons and look menacing at them like that St. Louis couple who will be featured at the GOP's convention as American heroes in Trump's America next week. St. Louis couple who pointed guns at protesters to speak at Republican convention
Look's like Donald favorite leader may have grown tired of a token opposition figure, now viewed as unnecessary when the Dear Leader is President for Life just like Donald's other favorite leader Kim. The Suspected Poisoning of Alexey Navalny, Putin’s Most Prominent Adversary | The New Yorker
Final Report on Russian Interference and Ties to Trump Is Released by G.O.P.-Led Senate Panel - The New York Times
Manafort was ‘grave counterintelligence threat’ due to Russian contacts, Senate panel says-POLITICO; Bipartisan Senate Intel report details Trump campaign contacts with Russia in 2016, adding to Mueller findings
Six revelations in Senate intel report on 2016 Russian interference
Trump stated under oath that he didn't discuss hacked emails with Roger Stone. A bipartisan Senate report says he did.
Trump retweets Russian propaganda about Biden that US intel agencies say is intended to influence 2020 election (8/21/20)
Senate committee made criminal referral of Trump Jr., Bannon, Kushner, two others to federal prosecutors The referrals were made in June 2019 and Barr, of course, did nothing. Senate committee sought investigation of Bannon, raised concerns about Trump family testimony - Los Angeles Times
Despot Don wants Americans to boycott Goodyear Tire, the only major U.S. tire manufacturer among the big 4 as noted by the true conservative Bill Kristol below. Goodyear has over 60K employees and is a major employer in the swing state of Ohio.
CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens; Trump and Biden tied in Minnesota: poll | TheHill If Trump manages to win, and that is certainly possible, I am going to quit talking about him and do my best to ignore his presence.
I do believe that Don the Authoritarian will put up a nasty fight in the event he loses.
I will be difficult to dislodge him from the White House unless the major battle ground states, which includes Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are won by a substantial, possibly overwhelming numbers. Even an overwhelming defeat may be insufficient for a peaceful transfer.
Demagogue Don has already made it crystal clear that he will be claiming voting fraud in an attempt to stay in office.
As Thomas Friedman noted recently, the upcoming Presidential election is the first one in modern history where citizens need to be concerned about the peaceful transfer of power in the event Donald loses. Opinion | Will 2020’s Election Be the End of Our Democracy?-The New York Times
There is just no telling how far Donald, and republicans, will go to keep Trump in power.
It probably best for Biden voters to cast their ballots in person, either during the early voting period or on election day. That may cut down on Trump's frivolous voting fraud claims.
Last week, Donald made this statement:
"We have to win the election. We can't play games. Go out and vote. Do those beautiful absentee ballots or just make sure your vote gets counted. Make sure, because the only way we are going to lose this election is if the election is rigged. Remember that. It's the only way we're going to lose this election" Trump: 'The only way we are going to lose this election is if the election is rigged'
Trump is a authoritarian demagogue who is attempting to undermine the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy.
He has been successful in convincing tens of millions that his false narratives are the truth and to distrust any accurate information originating from sources that he lumps in his Fake News category.
That is the ultimate objective of all authoritarians, the creation of a false alternate reality that is believed by a sufficient number of people in order to perpetuate power. I am stating facts here, rather than an opinion.
Donald lies all of the time about almost everything, yet 81% of republicans view him as honest. Question # 11 National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020-Quinnipiac University Connecticut A frightening number of independents also view Don the Con as honest:
I can not identify a single person alive today who is more dishonest than Donald IMO. President Trump has made more than 20,000 false or misleading claims - The Washington Post (as of 7/13/2020, starting with his inauguration as President in January 2017)
This is to be expected; and it will work. Trump Ads Attack Biden Through Deceptive Editing and Hyperbole - The New York Times
This is to be expected as well: Republican Group Selectively Edits Biden Tax Remark - FactCheck.org Lying works so well for them, so why stop unless you were actually a Christian and worried about Judgment Day? Is it even possible to deliberately and repeatedly mislead and lie to the public and then claim to be a conservative party.
Opinion | William McRaven: Trump is actively working to undermine the Postal Service and every major U.S. institution-The Washington Post The author of this column is Admiral William H. McRaven who was the commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command from 2011 to 2014.
Trump lashes out at Michelle Obama over address at Democratic convention | TheHill
PolitiFact | Donald Trump Jr. distorts Michigan data on dead voters (rated Pants on Fire)
Former Trump administration official calls his presidency "terrifying" - CBS News What is really terrifying is that over 63 million Americans will vote for Donald in November.
Trump Wanted To 'Swap' Puerto Rico For Greenland: Ex-official - Barron's
Trump campaign sues New Jersey after its decision to mail ballots
Trump campaign sues Pa. over 2020 election mail ballot drop boxes
Donald has already filed a myriad of election related lawsuits that he will use in a post-election effort to stay in power if he loses the election.
Vote-by-mail: President Donald Trump’s ballot received in Palm Beach
USPS email tells managers not to reconnect sorting machines;
Trump accuses Obama and Biden of treason at Arizona rally - YouTube Trump also characterized Michelle Obama's speech at the Democrat's convention as divisive. Michelle Obama: Trump labels former first lady's DNC speech 'divisive'
So if her speech was divisive, what does that make Donald's daily comments about Democrats and others who do not lavish sufficient praise on him?
Judge rules against Trump in tax records subpoena fight Has Donald committed multiple acts of tax fraud? That is one possible explanation for resisting so hard the production of his tax information to a NY grand jury investigating possible criminal tax fraud. But, in Trump's America, it is just a political hit job. Donald is the Chosen One, and how could he cheat and lie being such? President Trump: "I am the chosen one." - YouTube
Trump cabinet officials voted by show of hands to separate migrant children during 2018 meeting But Donald did know about it, or whatever was done, if anything, was merely a continuation of Obama's policies. FACT CHECK: Trump Wrongly Blames Obama For Child Separation Policy-NPR; Trump again falsely says Obama started family separation policy; Falsehoods About Family Separations Linger Online - FactCheck.org; Trump’s false claim that Obama had the same family separation policy - The Washington Post; Fact-Checking Trump’s Claim That He Didn’t Start Family Separations at Border - The New York Times
The 29 most shameless lines from Donald Trump's interview with Sean Hannity
+++
Fact Free Conspiracy Promulgators Are Now Mainstream Republicans:
Donald is the foremost spreader of fact free conspiracy theories in the world today. Donald was only getting started when promoting repeatedly the Obama birther conspiracy. This year, one of his more noteworthy conspiracy theories is his fact free claim that Joe Scarborough killed his intern many years ago.
Donald likes receiving support from the QAnon conspiracy supporters, viewed by the FBI as potential domestic terrorists threats.
Donald says they love their country, and are good people like those Nazis in Charlottesville, apparently disagreeing with the threat assessment by the FBI.
When told that the crux of their belief is that Donald was saving America from a Satanic cult of pedophiles and cannibals, Doofus Don replied "I haven't heard that, but is that supposed to be a bad thing or a good thing?". Trump praises QAnon supporters: "I understand they like me very much" - Axios
The Republican Embrace of QAnon Goes Far Beyond Trump - The New York Times
QAnon Is More Important Than You Think - The Atlantic The GOP embraces QAnon, recognizing that its members represent a sizable portion of the GOP's base. Only a small handful of incumbent republican politicians speak out against it, and those can be counted on one hand with several fingers left over. So far I have counted two republican congressman and 1 republican senator who are willing to criticize QAnon, just a little and barely noticeable unless you are looking for it.
Fox News' dangerous dance with QAnon | Media Matters for America
Trump also praised Laura Loomer for winning a republican congressional primary in Florida's 21st congressional district. The GOP Should Shun Laura Loomer-Reason.com (e.g. "She celebrated the deaths of 2,000 migrants and expressed hope that more would die.") She does fit nicely in Trump's party. InfoWars Sends Professional Troll Laura Loomer to Parkland Laura Loomer, the Trump-praised anti-Muslim congressional candidate in Florida, explained - Vox; Laura Loomer Is the Congresswoman Donald Trump Deserves - The Bulwark
Trump warns of 'rigged election' as he uses fear to counter Biden's convention week
20 Conspiracy Theories Trump Has Pushed Before and During His Presidency; List of conspiracy theories promoted by Donald Trump - Wikipedia
QAnon looms behind nationwide rallies and viral #SavetheChildren hashtags
++
The Trumpster Steve Bannon:
Bannon is latest in unprecedented string of Trump advisers facing charges: USA Today (column written by "Paul Rosenzweig, a senior fellow in the National Security and Cyber Security Program at the R Street Institute, was senior counsel to Kenneth Starr in the Whitewater investigation and a deputy assistant secretary of Homeland Security in the George W. Bush administration.")
Donald barely knew Steve Bannon, his 2016 campaign manager who replaced the convicted felon Paul Manafort and who later became his Chief Strategist after Donald was elected in 2016. Trump downplays 5-year Bannon relationship
Steve Bannon, three others charged with fraud in border wall fundraising campaign; READ: Indictment in Bannon, border wall fundraising case
Prosecutors from the U.S. attorneys office in the Southern District of New York brought the charges. Inside William Barr's Effort to Undermine N.Y. Prosecutors - The New York Times; Ex-NY Prosecutor Tells House Panel Barr 'Urged' Him to Resign | Time; Why Bill Barr Got Rid of Geoffrey Berman - The Atlantic
Steve Bannon charged with defrauding donors in private effort to raise money for Trump’s border wall
Bannon's arrest is the perfect symbol of the Trump era
FBI investigating Chinese media tycoon Guo Wengui linked to Bannon: report | TheHill; Fundraising at Company Tied to Steve Bannon and Guo Wengui Faces Probe - WSJ This is separate from the alleged border wall fraud that was the subject of Bannon's arrest. Law enforcement arrested Bannon while he was one Guo Wengui's yacht.
Trumpsters who were interviewed after the indictment want to contribute more money to Bannon's charity and view the indictments as a political hit job. These ‘We Build the Wall’ donors say they aren’t victims of fraud: ‘I hope I get to donate again’ - MarketWatch
Donald claimed he was not in favor of this private fund raising campaign Kobach in 2019: Trump was 'enthusiastic' about 'We Build the Wall' project | TheHill
Bannon pled not guilty and referred to the indictment as a political hit job in a podcast.
The Trumpsters will parrot that claim.
Bannon certainly does not have to worry about the Trumpsters actually reading the indictment and exercising independent judgment about the "alleged" criminal activities detailed therein.
Facts are irrelevant in Trump's America where false is true, true is false. Everything is upside down and over 63M want at least 4 more years of this unfortunate state of affairs with Donald being El Presidente (12 years if you count Donald's successor, Don Junior's 2 terms)
+++
Timothy Mellon-A Typical Trump Mega Donor:
I do believe that Don the Authoritarian will put up a nasty fight in the event he loses.
I will be difficult to dislodge him from the White House unless the major battle ground states, which includes Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are won by a substantial, possibly overwhelming numbers. Even an overwhelming defeat may be insufficient for a peaceful transfer.
Demagogue Don has already made it crystal clear that he will be claiming voting fraud in an attempt to stay in office.
As Thomas Friedman noted recently, the upcoming Presidential election is the first one in modern history where citizens need to be concerned about the peaceful transfer of power in the event Donald loses. Opinion | Will 2020’s Election Be the End of Our Democracy?-The New York Times
There is just no telling how far Donald, and republicans, will go to keep Trump in power.
It probably best for Biden voters to cast their ballots in person, either during the early voting period or on election day. That may cut down on Trump's frivolous voting fraud claims.
Last week, Donald made this statement:
"We have to win the election. We can't play games. Go out and vote. Do those beautiful absentee ballots or just make sure your vote gets counted. Make sure, because the only way we are going to lose this election is if the election is rigged. Remember that. It's the only way we're going to lose this election" Trump: 'The only way we are going to lose this election is if the election is rigged'
Trump is a authoritarian demagogue who is attempting to undermine the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy.
He has been successful in convincing tens of millions that his false narratives are the truth and to distrust any accurate information originating from sources that he lumps in his Fake News category.
That is the ultimate objective of all authoritarians, the creation of a false alternate reality that is believed by a sufficient number of people in order to perpetuate power. I am stating facts here, rather than an opinion.
Donald lies all of the time about almost everything, yet 81% of republicans view him as honest. Question # 11 National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020-Quinnipiac University Connecticut A frightening number of independents also view Don the Con as honest:
This is to be expected; and it will work. Trump Ads Attack Biden Through Deceptive Editing and Hyperbole - The New York Times
This is to be expected as well: Republican Group Selectively Edits Biden Tax Remark - FactCheck.org Lying works so well for them, so why stop unless you were actually a Christian and worried about Judgment Day? Is it even possible to deliberately and repeatedly mislead and lie to the public and then claim to be a conservative party.
Opinion | William McRaven: Trump is actively working to undermine the Postal Service and every major U.S. institution-The Washington Post The author of this column is Admiral William H. McRaven who was the commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command from 2011 to 2014.
Trump lashes out at Michelle Obama over address at Democratic convention | TheHill
PolitiFact | Donald Trump Jr. distorts Michigan data on dead voters (rated Pants on Fire)
Former Trump administration official calls his presidency "terrifying" - CBS News What is really terrifying is that over 63 million Americans will vote for Donald in November.
Trump Wanted To 'Swap' Puerto Rico For Greenland: Ex-official - Barron's
Trump campaign sues New Jersey after its decision to mail ballots
Trump campaign sues Pa. over 2020 election mail ballot drop boxes
Donald has already filed a myriad of election related lawsuits that he will use in a post-election effort to stay in power if he loses the election.
Vote-by-mail: President Donald Trump’s ballot received in Palm Beach
USPS email tells managers not to reconnect sorting machines;
Trump accuses Obama and Biden of treason at Arizona rally - YouTube Trump also characterized Michelle Obama's speech at the Democrat's convention as divisive. Michelle Obama: Trump labels former first lady's DNC speech 'divisive'
So if her speech was divisive, what does that make Donald's daily comments about Democrats and others who do not lavish sufficient praise on him?
Judge rules against Trump in tax records subpoena fight Has Donald committed multiple acts of tax fraud? That is one possible explanation for resisting so hard the production of his tax information to a NY grand jury investigating possible criminal tax fraud. But, in Trump's America, it is just a political hit job. Donald is the Chosen One, and how could he cheat and lie being such? President Trump: "I am the chosen one." - YouTube
Trump cabinet officials voted by show of hands to separate migrant children during 2018 meeting But Donald did know about it, or whatever was done, if anything, was merely a continuation of Obama's policies. FACT CHECK: Trump Wrongly Blames Obama For Child Separation Policy-NPR; Trump again falsely says Obama started family separation policy; Falsehoods About Family Separations Linger Online - FactCheck.org; Trump’s false claim that Obama had the same family separation policy - The Washington Post; Fact-Checking Trump’s Claim That He Didn’t Start Family Separations at Border - The New York Times
The 29 most shameless lines from Donald Trump's interview with Sean Hannity
Fact Free Conspiracy Promulgators Are Now Mainstream Republicans:
Donald is the foremost spreader of fact free conspiracy theories in the world today. Donald was only getting started when promoting repeatedly the Obama birther conspiracy. This year, one of his more noteworthy conspiracy theories is his fact free claim that Joe Scarborough killed his intern many years ago.
Donald likes receiving support from the QAnon conspiracy supporters, viewed by the FBI as potential domestic terrorists threats.
Donald says they love their country, and are good people like those Nazis in Charlottesville, apparently disagreeing with the threat assessment by the FBI.
When told that the crux of their belief is that Donald was saving America from a Satanic cult of pedophiles and cannibals, Doofus Don replied "I haven't heard that, but is that supposed to be a bad thing or a good thing?". Trump praises QAnon supporters: "I understand they like me very much" - Axios
The Republican Embrace of QAnon Goes Far Beyond Trump - The New York Times
QAnon Is More Important Than You Think - The Atlantic The GOP embraces QAnon, recognizing that its members represent a sizable portion of the GOP's base. Only a small handful of incumbent republican politicians speak out against it, and those can be counted on one hand with several fingers left over. So far I have counted two republican congressman and 1 republican senator who are willing to criticize QAnon, just a little and barely noticeable unless you are looking for it.
Fox News' dangerous dance with QAnon | Media Matters for America
Trump also praised Laura Loomer for winning a republican congressional primary in Florida's 21st congressional district. The GOP Should Shun Laura Loomer-Reason.com (e.g. "She celebrated the deaths of 2,000 migrants and expressed hope that more would die.") She does fit nicely in Trump's party. InfoWars Sends Professional Troll Laura Loomer to Parkland Laura Loomer, the Trump-praised anti-Muslim congressional candidate in Florida, explained - Vox; Laura Loomer Is the Congresswoman Donald Trump Deserves - The Bulwark
20 Conspiracy Theories Trump Has Pushed Before and During His Presidency; List of conspiracy theories promoted by Donald Trump - Wikipedia
QAnon looms behind nationwide rallies and viral #SavetheChildren hashtags
++
The Trumpster Steve Bannon:
Bannon is latest in unprecedented string of Trump advisers facing charges: USA Today (column written by "Paul Rosenzweig, a senior fellow in the National Security and Cyber Security Program at the R Street Institute, was senior counsel to Kenneth Starr in the Whitewater investigation and a deputy assistant secretary of Homeland Security in the George W. Bush administration.")
Donald barely knew Steve Bannon, his 2016 campaign manager who replaced the convicted felon Paul Manafort and who later became his Chief Strategist after Donald was elected in 2016. Trump downplays 5-year Bannon relationship
Steve Bannon, three others charged with fraud in border wall fundraising campaign; READ: Indictment in Bannon, border wall fundraising case
Prosecutors from the U.S. attorneys office in the Southern District of New York brought the charges. Inside William Barr's Effort to Undermine N.Y. Prosecutors - The New York Times; Ex-NY Prosecutor Tells House Panel Barr 'Urged' Him to Resign | Time; Why Bill Barr Got Rid of Geoffrey Berman - The Atlantic
Steve Bannon charged with defrauding donors in private effort to raise money for Trump’s border wall
Bannon's arrest is the perfect symbol of the Trump era
FBI investigating Chinese media tycoon Guo Wengui linked to Bannon: report | TheHill; Fundraising at Company Tied to Steve Bannon and Guo Wengui Faces Probe - WSJ This is separate from the alleged border wall fraud that was the subject of Bannon's arrest. Law enforcement arrested Bannon while he was one Guo Wengui's yacht.
Trumpsters who were interviewed after the indictment want to contribute more money to Bannon's charity and view the indictments as a political hit job. These ‘We Build the Wall’ donors say they aren’t victims of fraud: ‘I hope I get to donate again’ - MarketWatch
Donald claimed he was not in favor of this private fund raising campaign Kobach in 2019: Trump was 'enthusiastic' about 'We Build the Wall' project | TheHill
Bannon pled not guilty and referred to the indictment as a political hit job in a podcast.
The Trumpsters will parrot that claim.
Bannon certainly does not have to worry about the Trumpsters actually reading the indictment and exercising independent judgment about the "alleged" criminal activities detailed therein.
Facts are irrelevant in Trump's America where false is true, true is false. Everything is upside down and over 63M want at least 4 more years of this unfortunate state of affairs with Donald being El Presidente (12 years if you count Donald's successor, Don Junior's 2 terms)
+++
Timothy Mellon-A Typical Trump Mega Donor:
Timothy Mellon, top donor to Trump super PAC, used racial stereotypes to describe African Americans in his autobiography - The Washington Post Mellon, who inherited wealth like Donald, looks down on the hard working "little people" IMO, as Leona Helmsley once said, who are just trying to scrap by and may need assistance from time to time. Timothy Mellon: Top Trump donor accused of making racist comments in his autobiography
According to Mellon who has now given this year $30M to Donald's super PACs, blacks became "even more belligerent" after the expansion of social programs in the 1960s and 1970s.
He referred to safety net programs as “Slavery Redux” but apparently that phrase does not apply to those who inherited their millions from their Daddy and Mommy.
Mellon praised the GOP's corporate welfare tax legislation that gave him more millions.
75 Years Later, The Mellons Have Never Been Richer. How'd They Do It? Andrew Mellon's descendants have been successful in growing his wealth.
Timothy Mellon does remind me of his grandfather Andrew W. Mellon, the one that amassed the original fortune and who was the Secretary of the Treasury under President Hoover when the Great Depression started in 1929.
Andrew Mellon's approach to the human suffering resulting from that economic crash was to give tax breaks to the rich, urging Hoover to refrain from using the federal government to ease the suffering, and to “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” De-leveraging -- Fairy Tale Endings- NPR; The Mellon Caucus | The Nation
Richard Mellon Scaife (1932-2014) is more well known and is sometimes identified as the founding member of the "Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy". He was a mega donor to the GOP. A Vast Right-Wing Hypocrisy | Vanity Fair; Washingtonpost.com: Scaife: Funding Father of the Right (1999 article); Richard Mellon Scaife-Wikipedia The Andrew Mellon fortune included stakes in Mellon Bank (now part of Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) as of 2007, Gulf Oil (acquired by Chevron in 1985), and Alcoa.
++++
The Trumpster Tucker Carlson:
Carlson is probably more popular among Donald's cult members than Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham since he is such a jerk.
This video of an interview that Carlson did with a Dutch historian, which he did not air, reveals his soul and character IMO: Tucker Carlson Blows Up at Rutger Bregman in Unaired Fox News Interview | NowThis - YouTube
His attacks on Senator Kamala Harris are typical hyperbolic drivel that is now commonplace among Fox "news" anchors:
Carlson: “Is America ready for a shallow, hectoring, rich lady whose only real fans work at hedge funds and MSNBC?”
Another typical Fox "news" tactic is to use a video as a prop in a deliberate effort to mislead viewers. Carlson did that recently to support his claim that Senator Harris would dole out the Covid-19 vaccine based on a person's skin color. Fox News Is Leading the Attack on Kamala Harris | The New Republic; Tucker Carlson: Kamala Harris Will Deny You A COVID-19 Vaccine If You're Not A 'Certain Color' Harris made no such claim.
Fauci: Fox News’s Tucker Carlson ‘triggers some of the crazies’ - MarketWatch; Tucker Carlson calls Fauci a 'fraud' after tense hearing | TheHill
Carlson is not a conservative, but just a propagandist posturing for Donald and his cult members for an hour each weekday night. He is a bow tie wearing mini-Donald Trump without the orange glow but with an extra dose of Donald's aggravating smugness.
Maureen Dowd recently summed Trump up as follows, which equally applies to Carlson in my opinion: "President Trump represents the last primal shriek of retrograde white men afraid to lose their power. He’s a dinosaur who evokes a world of beauty pageants, “suburban housewives,’’ molestation, cheating on your wife when she’s pregnant, paying off porn stars, preferring women to be seen and not heard, dismissing women who challenge you as nasty, angry and crazy." Opinion | Biden Dreams of Kamelot - The New York Times
PolitiFact | Tucker Carlson
Opinion | Tucker Carlson's false accusations put Maine journalists under siege - The Washington Post
Opinion | From Fox News, a big dose of dumb on hydroxychloroquine - The Washington Post
Possibly the most devastating research about Fox "news" is about to be revealed in a book that will published Tuesday. Amazon.com: Hoax: Donald Trump, Fox News, and the Dangerous Distortion of Truth
+++
Covid -19 Updates: Everything remains under control in TrumpWorld.
Another warning from the 1918 flu for COVID-19: ‘Survival does not mean that individuals fully recovered’-MarketWatch
Just another properly rated false statement from Don the Con: PolitiFact | Donald Trump says US is at the top globally in COVID-19 fight. It isn’t.
Trump tout achievements to Yuma crowd with little social distancing or masks (8/18/20) This Covid-19 Infection Event was held last week.
Forty percent of U.S. Covid-19 tests come back too late to be clinically meaningful, data show
Poll: Less than half of Americans say they'll get a coronavirus vaccine I will wait a few months before taking it. I want to assess for myself the safety and efficacy after millions of people receive the shots. I would note that a vaccine may be approved with a 50% efficacy rate. If less than 50% take the vaccine, and the efficacy rate is at 50%, then herd immunity is around 25% attributable to the vaccine which will not stop the spread. A COVID-19 vaccine will still save lives even if it's not 100% effective, experts say - ABC News; FDA Insight: Vaccines for COVID-19, Part 2 | FDA; FDA to Require 50 Percent Efficacy for COVID-19 Vaccines | The Scientist Magazine®
The Trumpsters have discovered another cure for Covid-19: Anderson Cooper clashes with MyPillow creator over unproven therapeutic for Covid-19; 4 facts about oleandrin, an unproven coronavirus treatment reportedly pitched to Trump - MarketWatch; Trump eyes unproven COVID-19 "cure" promoted by MyPillow CEO - Axios This Trumpster cure is derived from the toxic oleandrin leave that, when eaten, can kill you. Oleandrin is a deadly plant poison, not a COVID-19 cure | PBS NewsHour
Donald's new Covid-19 advisor is Dr. Scott Atlas, a radiologist and a frequent Fox "news" guest, who offers opinions that Donald wants to hear.
Dr. Atlas stated that it "doesn't matter if younger, healthier people get infected. I don't know how often that has to be said. They have nearly zero risk of a problem from this."
He also made this statement: "When younger, healthier people get infected, that's a good thing," he went on to say, "because that's exactly the way that population immunity develops.” Dr. Scott Atlas disputes COVID-19 fear mongering tactics from our health officials
I interpret those comments as a willingness to accept around 1M deaths which is the ballpark estimate for how many will likely die before herd immunity is achieved without an effective vaccine.
A vaccine, or millions of deaths: How America can build herd immunity to the coronavirus - Washington Post This article has the following calculation using the assumptions that herd immunity is achieved at 60% of the U.S. population, with the fatality rate at 1.5%:
I can change those to variables by moving cursors. If the fatality rate is .5%, and herd immunity is at 65%, then there would be 1.07 million U.S. deaths to achieve herd immunity.
US coronavirus: Herd immunity attempts would lead to massive death tolls - CNN
Dr. Atlas and his Fox "news" interviewers believe that the death toll is way overestimated, though the evidence underlying that claim is lacking.
So far, the evidence is that Covid-19 deaths are underestimated, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic. Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'substantial undercount': Yale study; Fact check: COVID-19 death toll likely undercounted, not overcounted
Tennessee greenlights teachers returning to class even if they've been exposed to COVID-19 Tennessee is controlled by republicans.
New 'Plandemic' Video Peddles Misinformation, Conspiracies - FactCheck.org This video gathers in one place all of the falsehoods being peddled in Trump's America relating to Covid-19, peddling the video as a "documentary".
Carlson is not a conservative, but just a propagandist posturing for Donald and his cult members for an hour each weekday night. He is a bow tie wearing mini-Donald Trump without the orange glow but with an extra dose of Donald's aggravating smugness.
Maureen Dowd recently summed Trump up as follows, which equally applies to Carlson in my opinion: "President Trump represents the last primal shriek of retrograde white men afraid to lose their power. He’s a dinosaur who evokes a world of beauty pageants, “suburban housewives,’’ molestation, cheating on your wife when she’s pregnant, paying off porn stars, preferring women to be seen and not heard, dismissing women who challenge you as nasty, angry and crazy." Opinion | Biden Dreams of Kamelot - The New York Times
PolitiFact | Tucker Carlson
Opinion | Tucker Carlson's false accusations put Maine journalists under siege - The Washington Post
Opinion | From Fox News, a big dose of dumb on hydroxychloroquine - The Washington Post
Possibly the most devastating research about Fox "news" is about to be revealed in a book that will published Tuesday. Amazon.com: Hoax: Donald Trump, Fox News, and the Dangerous Distortion of Truth
+++
Covid -19 Updates: Everything remains under control in TrumpWorld.
 |
| As of FRIDAY 8/21/20 |
Just another properly rated false statement from Don the Con: PolitiFact | Donald Trump says US is at the top globally in COVID-19 fight. It isn’t.
Trump tout achievements to Yuma crowd with little social distancing or masks (8/18/20) This Covid-19 Infection Event was held last week.
Forty percent of U.S. Covid-19 tests come back too late to be clinically meaningful, data show
Poll: Less than half of Americans say they'll get a coronavirus vaccine I will wait a few months before taking it. I want to assess for myself the safety and efficacy after millions of people receive the shots. I would note that a vaccine may be approved with a 50% efficacy rate. If less than 50% take the vaccine, and the efficacy rate is at 50%, then herd immunity is around 25% attributable to the vaccine which will not stop the spread. A COVID-19 vaccine will still save lives even if it's not 100% effective, experts say - ABC News; FDA Insight: Vaccines for COVID-19, Part 2 | FDA; FDA to Require 50 Percent Efficacy for COVID-19 Vaccines | The Scientist Magazine®
The Trumpsters have discovered another cure for Covid-19: Anderson Cooper clashes with MyPillow creator over unproven therapeutic for Covid-19; 4 facts about oleandrin, an unproven coronavirus treatment reportedly pitched to Trump - MarketWatch; Trump eyes unproven COVID-19 "cure" promoted by MyPillow CEO - Axios This Trumpster cure is derived from the toxic oleandrin leave that, when eaten, can kill you. Oleandrin is a deadly plant poison, not a COVID-19 cure | PBS NewsHour
Donald's new Covid-19 advisor is Dr. Scott Atlas, a radiologist and a frequent Fox "news" guest, who offers opinions that Donald wants to hear.
Dr. Atlas stated that it "doesn't matter if younger, healthier people get infected. I don't know how often that has to be said. They have nearly zero risk of a problem from this."
He also made this statement: "When younger, healthier people get infected, that's a good thing," he went on to say, "because that's exactly the way that population immunity develops.” Dr. Scott Atlas disputes COVID-19 fear mongering tactics from our health officials
I interpret those comments as a willingness to accept around 1M deaths which is the ballpark estimate for how many will likely die before herd immunity is achieved without an effective vaccine.
A vaccine, or millions of deaths: How America can build herd immunity to the coronavirus - Washington Post This article has the following calculation using the assumptions that herd immunity is achieved at 60% of the U.S. population, with the fatality rate at 1.5%:
US coronavirus: Herd immunity attempts would lead to massive death tolls - CNN
Dr. Atlas and his Fox "news" interviewers believe that the death toll is way overestimated, though the evidence underlying that claim is lacking.
So far, the evidence is that Covid-19 deaths are underestimated, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic. Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'substantial undercount': Yale study; Fact check: COVID-19 death toll likely undercounted, not overcounted
Tennessee greenlights teachers returning to class even if they've been exposed to COVID-19 Tennessee is controlled by republicans.
New 'Plandemic' Video Peddles Misinformation, Conspiracies - FactCheck.org This video gathers in one place all of the falsehoods being peddled in Trump's America relating to Covid-19, peddling the video as a "documentary".
++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
I am using the small ball approach to build back up my regional bank allocation which was almost eliminated in 2018.
If I do not like a bank's earnings report, I will consider eliminating the position or at least paring it while continuing with those that are doing better in a difficult environment.
I discuss below eliminating a started position in WSBC and paring UMPQ in response to their second quarter earnings reports. UMPQ is now a placeholder with only a 5 share position.
WSBC rallied significantly in response to its second quarter report which t I viewed as a less than favorable earnings report. When I have that opinion with the stock rising in price, it is going to be sold for a profit, no matter how small.
I am using the small ball approach to build back up my regional bank allocation which was almost eliminated in 2018.
If I do not like a bank's earnings report, I will consider eliminating the position or at least paring it while continuing with those that are doing better in a difficult environment.
I discuss below eliminating a started position in WSBC and paring UMPQ in response to their second quarter earnings reports. UMPQ is now a placeholder with only a 5 share position.
WSBC rallied significantly in response to its second quarter report which t I viewed as a less than favorable earnings report. When I have that opinion with the stock rising in price, it is going to be sold for a profit, no matter how small.
1. Small Ball:
A. Eliminated DES-Sold Remaining 15+ Shares at $21.75:
Quote: DES | WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund Overview
Closing Price 8/21: DES $22.32 -$0.16 -0.71%
Profit Snapshot: +$60.89
Sponsor's Website: WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.H. Sold 5 DES at $21.78 (7/11/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 77+ DES at $28.13 (10/22/19 Post)
I have been disappointed with this fund's performance. Note that I sold shares at $28.13 last October.
WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES) Total Returns
A. Eliminated DES-Sold Remaining 15+ Shares at $21.75:
Quote: DES | WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund Overview
Closing Price 8/21: DES $22.32 -$0.16 -0.71%
Profit Snapshot: +$60.89
Sponsor's Website: WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.H. Sold 5 DES at $21.78 (7/11/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 77+ DES at $28.13 (10/22/19 Post)
I have been disappointed with this fund's performance. Note that I sold shares at $28.13 last October.
WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES) Total Returns
B. Started ESGV as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $59.46:
Quote: Vanguard ESG US Stock ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/21: ESGV $62.43 +$0.19 +0.31%
ESG: Screened for certain environmental, social and corporate governance factors.
Sponsor's Website: ESGV - Vanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF
Expense Ratio: .12%
Dividends: Quarterly
Holdings as of 7/31/20: 1478
Some Top Holdings as of 7/31/20:
Closing Price 8/21: ESGV $62.43 +$0.19 +0.31%
ESG: Screened for certain environmental, social and corporate governance factors.
Sponsor's Website: ESGV - Vanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF
Expense Ratio: .12%
Dividends: Quarterly
Holdings as of 7/31/20: 1478
Some Top Holdings as of 7/31/20:
C. Started VSGX as a Placeholder-Bought 2 at $51.18; 1 at $50.2:
Quote: Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF Overview
Closing Price 8/21: VSGX $51.91 -$0.07 -0.13%
ESG: Screened for certain environmental, social and governance factors.
Sponsor's Website: VSGX - Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF
Expense Ratio: .17%
Dividends: Quarterly
Some Top Holdings as of 7/31/20:
Previous Purchases: None
D. Added to FISI-Bought 5 at $15.85; 5 at $15.2; 10 at $14.9; 10 at $14.6 and Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $18.07:
Investment category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Purchases:
Sold 10 at $18.07:
Item # 1.C. Restarted FISI-Bought 10 at $16.17 (6/6/20 Post)
Quote: Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI)
Closing Price 8/21/20: FISI $15.97 -$1.05 -6.17% (volume: 91,306 shares; market cap at $256.12M)
FISI SEC Filings
Stock Information as of 8/21/20:
Profit Snapshot (10 Shares): +$19.01
"Financial Institutions, Inc. provides diversified financial services through its subsidiaries Five Star Bank, SDN, Courier Capital and HNP Capital. Five Star Bank provides a wide range of consumer and commercial banking and lending services to individuals, municipalities and businesses through a network of more than 50 offices throughout Western and Central New York State. SDN provides a broad range of insurance services to personal and business clients. Courier Capital and HNP Capital provide customized investment management, investment consulting and retirement plan services to individuals, businesses, institutions, foundations and retirement plans." Warsaw, N.Y. is a small village located about 37 miles from Buffalo, N.Y. Warsaw - Google Maps I do not view FISI as an acquisition target since it operates primarily in rural, non-growth markets.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/11/20
Average Cost Per Share (30 shares): $15.31
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.79%
5 Year Chart as of 8/21/20:
10 Year Chart: Topping Action in 2017-2018 (typical)
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20):
"Net income for the quarter was $11.1 million compared to $11.4 million for the second quarter of 2019. After preferred dividends, net income available to common shareholders was $10.8 million for the quarter, or $0.67 per diluted share, compared to $11.0 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2019.
Pre-tax pre-provision income was $17.3 million for the quarter compared to $16.7 million for the second quarter of 2019.
Non-performing loans were $13.2 million at June 30, 2020, compared to $12.4 million at March 31, 2020, and $11.5 million at June 30, 2019. Net charge-offs were $786 thousand in the quarter, $9.4 million lower than the first quarter of 2020 and $461 thousand lower than the second quarter of 2019. The decrease from the first quarter of 2020 is primarily attributable to one commercial credit that was partially charged-off during the first quarter of 2020. The borrower’s business was related to the hospitality industry and the charge-off was precipitated by the impact of COVID-19. The ratio of annualized net charge-offs to total average loans was 0.09% in the quarter, 1.27% in the first quarter of 2020 and 0.16% in the second quarter of 2019.
The Company adopted CECL effective January 1, 2020, which resulted in an increase to the allowance for credit losses - loans of $9.6 million and established a reserve for unfunded commitments of $2.1 million, for a total pre-tax cumulative effect adjustment of $11.7 million."
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
Prior Trades: Item # 3 Sold 50 FISI at $24.71 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $442.07); Item # 2 Sold 51+ FISI at $24.1 (5/3/2015 Post)(profit snapshot = $254.18); Item # 5 Sold 50 of 150 FISI at $21.16 (10/11/13 Post)(profits snapshot = $59.15)
FISI Realized Gains To Date: $774.41 ($755.4 in prior Trades)
E. Restarted BRKL-Bought 10 at $9.51; 5 at $9.31:
Quote: Brookline Bancorp Inc.
Closing Price 8/31/20: BRKL $9.51 -$0.16 -1.65%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Brookline Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates The current year will be one to forget. The consensus E.P.S. estimate is currently at $.49, jumping to $.82 next year. BRKL reported a loss in the first quarter due to loan loss provisioning related largely to the pandemic as discussed below.
I discussed the first purchase in a 7/22/20 comment.
"Brookline Bancorp, Inc., a bank holding company with $9.1 billion in assets and branch locations in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts and operates as the holding company for Brookline Bank and Bank Rhode Island". Those two banks have a combined 51 branches across the Boston and Providence metropolitan markets.
BRKL SEC Filings
Brookline Bank- Corporate Profile
5 Year Financial Data:
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Sold 101+ BRKL at $9.53 (7/28/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $92.21)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share ($.46 annually)
Brookline Bancorp, Inc Dividend History | Nasdaq
Dividend Yield at $9.51 = 4.837%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/6/20 (owned as of)
Stock Information as of 7/22/20:
Brookline Bancorp Announces Second Quarter Results
"net income of $19.6 million, or $0.25 per basic and diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020" This represented a 1 cent per share decrease from the 2019 second quarter.
The consensus estimate was for $.14.
 |
| Snapshot After Hours 7/22/20 |
Charge Off Ratio: .08%
ROA: .88%
NPL Ratio: .56%
NPA Ratio: .47%
Book Value Per Share: $11.75
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $9.67
Tangible Tangible Equity to Tangible Assets: 8.56%
CECL Provision: $5.3 for the quarter, compared to $54.1M in the first quarter.
During the second quarter, BRKL funded about $565.8M in loans pursuant to the Paycheck Protection Program. The will result in approximately $19.37M in income over the life of the loans.
Brookline Bancorp, Inc. (BRKL) CEO Paul Perrault on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
I am not currently overflowing with enthusiasm for BRKL.
F. Restarted SONA-Bought 10 at $8.73; 5 at $8.42; 5 at $8.25:
Quote: Southern National Bancorp of Virginia Inc.
Closing Price 8/21/20: SONA $8.39 -$0.23 -2.67%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
"As of June 30, 2020, Southern National had $3.07 billion in total assets, $2.51 billion in total loans and $2.15 billion in total deposits. Sonabank, the Company's banking subsidiary provides a range of financial services to individuals and small and medium sized businesses through forty-two full-service branches in Virginia and Maryland."
Corporate Profile - Sonabank
Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/20 (owned as of)
Average Cost Per Share: $8.53
Yield at Average Cost: 4.69%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
Diluted E.P.S.: $.19, down from $.38
NIM: 3.33%; 3.5% without PPP loans
NPA Ratio: .57%
Charge Off Ratio: zero
Coverage Ratio: 128%
Operating Efficiency Ratio: 49.07%
Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 14.22%
Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Assets: 9.22%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $11.21, up 6.9% Y-O-Y
Southern National Bancorp of Virginia, Inc. announces earnings of $4.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2020, compared to $9.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2019
Sell Discussions: Sold Remaining 50 SONA at $15.05 South Gent's Comment Blog # 6
 |
| 2016 SONA 50 Shares +$155.86 (IB Account) |
SONA Trading Profits: $429.07
Stock Information as of 7/22/20:
5 Year Chart as of 7/22/20:
G. Eliminated WSBC-Sold 5 at $20.98 and 5 at $22.94:
Quote: WesBanco Inc. (WSBC)
Closing Price 8/21: WSBC $21.56 -$0.45 -2.04%
Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: + $26.58
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
H. Pared UMPQ-Sold 10 at $11.43:
Quote: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Closing Price 8/21: UMPQ $11.05 -$0.04 -0.36%
UMPQ SEC Filings
Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$4.55
Average Cost Per Share = $9.37, reduced from $10.44
Current Position: 5 Shares (just a placeholder)
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Sold 101+ UMPQ at $18.34 (1/30/2019)
Dividend: $.21 per share
Of the banks discussed this year, I view UMPQ as the one most likely to cut its dividend. The earnings reports so far this year have been poor.
Umpqua Holdings Announces $0.21 Per Common Share Dividend
UMPQ did not pay a dividend in the second quarter, delaying payment until it received approval from the FED.
SEC Form 8-K Filing
If that missed dividend payment is not made up, the bank effectively cut its annual rate from $.84 to $.63 per share for 2020.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/14/20
Dividend Yield at $9.37 TC = 8.97%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
UMPQ "reported net earnings of $52.9 million for the second quarter of 2020, compared to net loss of $1.9 billion for the first quarter of 2020 and net income of $111.8 million for the second quarter of 2019. Earnings per diluted common share were $0.24 for the second quarter of 2020, compared to a loss of $8.41 for the first quarter of 2020 and earnings of $0.51 for the second quarter of 2019."
"The allowance for credit losses was $383.1 million, or 1.69% of loans and leases, as of June 30, 2020, which was up from $312.3 million, or 1.47% of loans and leases, as of March 31, 2020. The provision for credit losses was $87.1 million for the second quarter of 2020, a decrease of $31.0 million from the prior quarter level, although still elevated from historical levels reflecting the continued influence of the COVID-19 global pandemic on economic forecasts."
The bank adopted as of 1/1/20 the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL):
More about the adoption of CECL by Umpqua can be found in its 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 at pages 10-11. Investors in bank stocks need to be familiar with this change and how it is currently impacting earnings.
The banks that have adopted this new standard have reported so far this year larger loan loss reserves than they would have under the previous standard. Several smaller banks have deferred adoption which is permitted under the Cares Act.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $11.44
NPL Ratio: .33%
Charge-Off Ratio: .35%
Purchase Restriction: Any subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain. Further, I must see some progress made on earnings growth and a substantial lowering of loan loss reserves.
UMPQ Trading Profits To Date: $701.1
I. Eliminated SCM in Schwab Account-Sold 20 shares at $7.61:
Quote: Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)
Profit Snapshot: +$10.84
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Bought 5 SCM at $7.41 in Fidelity Account (8/15/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and SCM's recent dividend cut in that post. I am reinvesting the dividend in that account.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Next Ex Dividend: 9/14/20
5 Year Chart as of 8/17/20:
Stock Information as of 8/17/20:
5 Year Annual Average Total Return through 8/20: 5.69%
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
Average Cost Per Share = $9.37, reduced from $10.44
Current Position: 5 Shares (just a placeholder)
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Sold 101+ UMPQ at $18.34 (1/30/2019)
Dividend: $.21 per share
Of the banks discussed this year, I view UMPQ as the one most likely to cut its dividend. The earnings reports so far this year have been poor.
Umpqua Holdings Announces $0.21 Per Common Share Dividend
UMPQ did not pay a dividend in the second quarter, delaying payment until it received approval from the FED.
If that missed dividend payment is not made up, the bank effectively cut its annual rate from $.84 to $.63 per share for 2020.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/14/20
Dividend Yield at $9.37 TC = 8.97%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
UMPQ "reported net earnings of $52.9 million for the second quarter of 2020, compared to net loss of $1.9 billion for the first quarter of 2020 and net income of $111.8 million for the second quarter of 2019. Earnings per diluted common share were $0.24 for the second quarter of 2020, compared to a loss of $8.41 for the first quarter of 2020 and earnings of $0.51 for the second quarter of 2019."
"The allowance for credit losses was $383.1 million, or 1.69% of loans and leases, as of June 30, 2020, which was up from $312.3 million, or 1.47% of loans and leases, as of March 31, 2020. The provision for credit losses was $87.1 million for the second quarter of 2020, a decrease of $31.0 million from the prior quarter level, although still elevated from historical levels reflecting the continued influence of the COVID-19 global pandemic on economic forecasts."
The bank adopted as of 1/1/20 the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL):
The banks that have adopted this new standard have reported so far this year larger loan loss reserves than they would have under the previous standard. Several smaller banks have deferred adoption which is permitted under the Cares Act.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $11.44
Purchase Restriction: Any subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain. Further, I must see some progress made on earnings growth and a substantial lowering of loan loss reserves.
UMPQ Trading Profits To Date: $701.1
I. Eliminated SCM in Schwab Account-Sold 20 shares at $7.61:
Profit Snapshot: +$10.84
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Next Ex Dividend: 9/14/20
5 Year Chart as of 8/17/20:
5 Year Annual Average Total Return through 8/20: 5.69%
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
Prior Sell Discussions:
Item # 3 Eliminated SCM - Sold 50 at $13.72 (9/21/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $3.75); Item # 1.B. Sold 32+ SCM at $14.22-Used Commission Free Trade (2/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $78.09); Item # 1.A. Sold Highest Cost Lot-50 Shares at $12.63 (5/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.24); Item 2.B. Sold 100 SCM at $14.23 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$285.96); Item # 2 Sold 100 SCM at $13.02 (1/12/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $141.96)
Realized Gain Snapshots:
 |
| 2017 SCM 100 Shares +$141.96 |
 |
| 2017 SCM 100 Shares +$285.96 |
 |
| 2018 SCM 50 Shares +$34.23 |
 |
| 2019 SCM 32+ Shares +$78.09 |
 |
| 2019 SCM 50 Shares +$3.75 |
 |
| 2020 SCM 20 Shares +$10.84 |
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend payments
SCM Trading Profits to Date: $554.83
J. Restarted UNB-Bought 5 at $18.5; 5 at $18.19 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB) This bank holding company is a mini cap with a market capitalization near $86M at $18.7. The bid/ask spread is normally large.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Closing Price 8/21: UNB $18.99 +$0.27 +1.44% (volume at 8,349 shares; market cap at $84.978M)
"Union Bankshares, Inc., headquartered in Morrisville, Vermont, is the bank holding company parent of Union Bank, which provides commercial, retail, and municipal banking services, as well as, asset management services throughout northern Vermont and New Hampshire. Union Bank operates 20 banking offices, two loan centers, and multiple ATMs throughout its geographical footprint."
UNB SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share, increased from $.31 per share effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/24/20
Average Cost Per Share (this account) = $18.35
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 6.98%
Stock Information as of 8/17/20:
5 Year Chart as of 8/17/20: The is a fairly typical chart for a regional bank, showing topping action in 2017-2018 followed by a waterfall decline starting in March 2020 and a current price stabilization within a narrow channel.
"Consolidated net income for the three months ended June 30, 2020 were $2.7 million, or $0.60 per share, compared to $2.5 million, or $0.56 per share, for the same period in 2019"
During the quarter, UNB "originated $68.5 million in Paycheck Protection Program ("PPP") loans."
The 10-Q filing contains more information:
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20 at page 31 Except for the efficiency ratio which is too high IMO, the numbers are solid.
Capital ratios are fine IMO:
 |
| Page 47 10-Q |
Item # 1 Sold 50 UNB at $19.5 (7/26/11 Post)-Item # 9 Bought 50 UNB at 18 (/27/2010 Post)
Maximum Position This Account: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
K. Started UNB in Vanguard Account-Bought 5 at $18.58:
The reason for owning the same stock in two accounts, using the small ball trading rules in both, is that I am more likely to see a major decline in price and can add to the position while I am in the account.
I may also elect to eliminate the position in one account and keep added to the other.
I will frequently reinvest the dividends in one account while taking them in cash in the other. That approach is primarily a capital preservation strategy. It is easier to preserve the value of cash than the value of shares bought with dividends. However, cash in a money market account is not going to appreciate in price either.
Maximum Position this Account: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Same as above
L. Pared TPVG-Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.41 (highest cost lot):
Quote: TPVG | TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Overview
Closing Price 8/21: TPVG $12.37 -$0.09 -0.72%
Profit Snapshot: $17.1
TPVG SEC Filings
I mentioned in the last post paring my position held in my Fidelity account. Item # 1.L. (8/15/20 Post)
I also recently discussed eliminating the TPVG position in my Schwab account. Item # 1.J. (8/8/20 Post)
This lot was held in my Vanguard taxable account and was purchased at $10.7 (3/13/20):
The preceding snapshot highlights the risk.
The average cost per share before selling the highest cost 10 share lot was at $7.66.
The average cost per share after the pare is now at $5.32.
Dividend; Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Dividend Yield at $5.32: 27.07%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 8/28/20
I am not reinvesting the dividend in this account.
I took a snapshot of analyst actions which establishes that they are not helpful on the price targets.
TPVG Trading Profits to Date: $824.19 ($807.09 in prior trades)
Goal: Total Return in Excess of the Dividend Payments.
Prior Profit Snapshots:
 |
| 2017 TPVG 50 Shares +$83.48 |
 |
| 2017 TPVG 50 Shares +$153.08 |
 |
| 2019 TPVG 40 Shares +$41.7 |
 |
| 2019 TPVG 50 Shares +$4.49 |
 |
| 2019 TPVG 14 Shares +$46.33 |
 |
| 2019 TPVG 50 Shares +$71.66 |
 |
| 2019 TPVG 74+ Shares +$246.23 |
 |
| 2019 TPVG 106+ shares +$93.36 |
 |
| 2020 TPVG 10 Shares +$9.99 |
 |
| 2020 TPVG 30 Shares +$94.3 |
A. Eliminated GNLPRB in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at $24.93 and 5 at $24.92:
Profit Snapshot: +$63.54
I still own shares in other accounts with a lower cost basis, with positions acquired during the meltdown phase.
The positions are smaller. This is a snapshot of the shares currently held in my Fidelity taxable account:
3. Floating Rate Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Started ARGOPRA- Bought 10 at $25.3:
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities
Issuer SEC Filings
SEC Filed Issuer Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20
I discussed this purchase in a 8/17/20 comment.
This security is a fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stock. I includes those types of security in the floating rate category even though there initial coupons are at a fixed rate and the owners may never actually receive the floating rate.
Generally, the issuer's optional redemption right is triggered when the fixed coupon period ends. If the issuer can secure more favorable financing then, it has an incentive (and legal right) to redeem the security rather than pay the floating rate.
Prospectus
Issuer: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd (ARGO)
ARGO is a Bermuda domiciled business. It is my understanding that Bermuda does not currently tax dividends paid to U.S. citizens. Bermuda Highlights 2020
ARGO Analyst Estimates
Par Value: $25
Coupon: Paid quarterly at 7% to but excluding 9/15/25, then at a 6.712% spread to the 5 year treasury note if not called at issuer's option
Optional Call Date: On or after 9/15/25 except may be called earlier in limited circumstances described in the prospectus
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and Qualified
Stopper Clause: Yes see below
 |
| Page S-34 |
The references in the prospectus to the "par call date" means the First Reset Date, which is when the security transitions to a floater unless redeemed at the issuer's option.
Schwab claims that the security is rated BB by S & P:
4. REIT Equity Preferred Stocks (continued from # 2):
A. Pared CIOPRA Held in Fidelity Account-Sold 10 at $24.47:
Quote: City Office REIT, Inc. 6.625% Series A Cumulative Preferred Stock
Prospectus Supplement
Issuer: City Office REIT Inc. (CIO)
Par Value: $25 per share
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks I am currently unable to update that post with new trade snapshots
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 20 CIOPRA at $20.6; 5 at $19.14; 5 at $18.6; 5 at $18.35; 5 at $17.5; 5 at $15.15; 5 at $13.56; 10 at $16.5(3/28/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $55.99 (8/20 sell only, 10 shares)
Position After Pare: Average cost at $16.26
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 8/20/20 |
Last Ex Dividend: 7/9/20 (owned as of )
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 6.A. Pared CIOPRA-Sold 10 at $21.17 and 10 at $22.25-Highest Cost Lots (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.17); Item # 1.A. Eliminated CIOPRA-Sold 50 at $24.77-Used Commission Free Trade (4/24/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $155.22); Item # 4.A. Sold 50 CIOPRA at $24.14-Used Commission Free Trade (3/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.86); Item 3.A. Sold 50 CIOPRA at $25.21 (1/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $146.97)
CIOPRA Realized Gains to Date: $401.21 ($345.22 in prior trades; corrected from prior post due to 1 profit omission in the tally)
Chart Since IPO at $25:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Hannity tells people in private that Trump is "bat shit crazy".
ReplyDeletehttps://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/sean-hannity-fox-news-staffers-feel-trapped-in-trump-cult
What surprises me most about Bannon, is how dumb the plan was. He's supposed to be smart. Morally inept, and money grubbing, but smart. Who promises 100% of a charity goes to a cause without any overhead expenses? Why not post a sign that says "con-men statement, check us out."
ReplyDeleteI saw a comment that if you take away the FAANGS from the indices, they are at more reasonable rates for the situation.
If true, then there should be value out there, and prices are more realistically priced than the indices make one feel. The problem is risk of collapse if the virus situation continues for a more extended time than expected or gets worse. But if one invests for longer term, you might not be getting at the bottom, but still be able to get in with value/room to grow, just not right away.
Chart by market cap
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-fund-manager-says-todays-stock-prices-are-unsustainable-2020-08-21?mod=home-page
On the way to reading links, I came across this about Synaptics. This looks promising. Up already, but likely to keep climbing because of good management.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/synaptics-makeover-could-lead-to-dramatic-growth-51598056415?mod=mw_more_headlines
INTC looks like they're trying to stem the bleeding. I'll take it.
Buffetts move seems surprising. Some write it off as buying a little of a company that pays divs, but he's still big in banks. He's certainly not immediately expecting a full economic bounceback.
It's from the 13-F filings from Friday. How far delayed from the actual buy/sell dates are these filings?
So that's a big 1k par buying on the bond market difference. Things like "make whole" provisions. The make whole should help make the bonds more liquid.
Where do coupon bonds stand compared to unsecured senior and junior?
FG reports that retail sales hit an all time high last week.
Can that be true? It would say the economy is doing much better than it looks.
Land: The existence of a make whole provision in a bond prospectus is designed to shift interest rate risk onto the issuer when rates are falling, either making it uneconomic to call and refinance or compensating the bond owner when rates have fallen and it is economic to call and refinance.
DeleteThe owner of the bond still has the interest rate risk associated with rising rates.
The interest rate risk is more symmetrical and shared between the bond owner and the issuer.
For exchange traded bonds, interest rate risk is mostly asymmetric in favor of the bond issuer. The bond owner has some call protection, usually only for five years after the IPO, but then the issuer can call at par value (no premium payment to par value as compensation to the bond owner) which it will do when it can refinance at a lower rate (and in some cases, extend the maturity as well).
The liquidity of a $1K par value bond is largely dependent on the amount outstanding and overall institutional interest.
All bonds that I own have coupons, irrespective of where they stand in the capital structure.
Treasury bills (1 month to 1 year) are sold at auction without coupons. The auction is at a discount to par value, and the difference between the price paid and the par value is the interest.
It is estimated that consumer spending will be nicked by around 6-8% this month due to the fiscal stimulus expirations including the extra $600 per week that ended last month.
Retail sales did nudge out a new high in July on a seasonally adjusted basis but not without seasonal adjustments.
Seasonal Adjustments
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS
Non-Seasonal adjustments
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USN
The issue is what happens to consumer spending after the fiscal stimulus is withdrawn. In a majority of cases, I believe the data showed that people were better off with unemployment benefits with that $600 per week supplemental than they were when working. So I would expect consumer spending to rebound. Most of the job losses are concentrated in low wage jobs.
I read the Barron's article on Synaptics. It is not the kind of stock that I would normally buy. If I did buy now after a 150% run up over the past year, it would be as a placeholder, starting with 1 share. The stock pays no dividend. Makers of tech thingamajigs have a tendency to lose market share and profits after a brief period, usually measured in a few years, of technical superiority and cost advantages.
Do you have opinion on PRM trading on Toronto Exchange? It's a basket of Pharma stocks with 9% yield. tia
ReplyDeleteGN: The short answer is no. I am aware of that kind of security but have never looked into it.
DeleteI will take a look:
https://harvestportfolios.com/closed-end-funds/big-pharma-split-corp/
If I decide to buy, I will discuss it in a post.
It's called 'Big Pharma Split' that I was interestesd in and if you like it, how do I buy on Fidelity or TDAmer...
DeleteIt says the distribution is cash without leverage? Need to delve deeper...
DeleteGN: To buy a security trading in Toronto, it is necessary to be approved for international trading at Fidelity.
DeleteThen you would have to exchange USDs for CADs since the trade will has to settle in CADs. Fidelity charges 1% of the value as a fee for making that exchange into CADs and then the same fee when converting back from CADs into USDs. Dividends are paid in CADs after a 15% Canadian withholding tax.
Fidelity will also charge C$19 for a trade:
Page 3
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Brokerage_Commissions_Fee_Schedule.pdf
If I bought 100 shares of this Canadian security at IB, I would pay a C$1 commission.
International trading requires a fair amount of expertise. I use Interactive Brokers to trade internationally, since I pay a small fee to do currency exchanges and a much lower commission, both of which are far better than Fidelity's fees and commissions. I doubt that TD Ameritrade costs less than Fidelity.
I am an experienced trader in international markets, so it is no big deal for me to buy a security traded on a foreign exchange using my U.S. IB account.I already own a surplus of CADs.
One issue that I noted is that the original IPO price was C$15 in 2017; and the security closed last Friday at C$13.6.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/prm?countrycode=ca
Since the stocks have probably gained in price since the IPO, I suspect that the oversized dividend is in part a return of capital. That will require further research to understand why the share price is down. The expense ratio is relatively high at .75%.
Thank you very much, as always! It's too complicated to invest for me. I'm (early) retired/ Albertsons union grocery, they said they are "targeting" 10 cents/quarter dividend, to be announced in next earnings. I see buyers came in @ $14.60 when this "supposed" dividend yield would be 3%. I want $14 price to give 3.5% yield, and am watching for more of a selloff. Business at Albertsons/Vons/Safeway is good.Local added 6 well-marked parking spaces for online pickup. They issued debt last week to call 6-7% bonds and replace with about 3.5%, I like it at $14.00 no? (ACI)
DeleteI did not discuss all of the issues relating to international trading by U.S. taxpayers. For example, when you have to sell CADs to buy a Canadian stock in Toronto, that is a tax event, where the taxpayer will realize a gain or loss on the currency based on the USD tax cost basis. Since that gain is reportable but not included in a 1099, a separate 8949 form has to be filled out with the box checked that the information was not reported on the 1099.
DeleteI have no interest in Albertsons common stock. I may develop an interest but have no urge to look into it now.
I mentioned in this post that the summer rebound in consumer spending had two major sources. One was the federal government's huge fiscal stimulus.
ReplyDeleteThe second was that people with money and jobs could not take their normal vacations due to the pandemic. The savings were channeled into more retail spending.
Target actually mentioned the vacation issue as benefiting its retail sales.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/target-ceo-credits-canceled-vacations-not-stimulus-checks-for-blowout-quarter.html
Maybe people spent money home entertainment that are reflected in the government's retail sales report.
The point that I making is that those boosts to retail spending are in mostly in the past.
I think you are right. I am a watercolorist gallery member and sales were good, and people had $1200 per adults and $500 per kid, plus $600/wk on top of the national average U/E of about $350/week, wo many workers have gotten close to $1K a week, more than they have ever seen working. Not sure if Uber/Lyft (gig) got the same relief, I think they had to show taxes for 2019 (assuming most didn't file yet in 2020, but they still need to show "income" to qualify) right? And waitresses getting tips as most of "income" are gig workers too that need to show documentation, right? I can't help but think many of these workers were hiding income, they are "screwed".
DeleteThanks! It is probably behind us. Still stunning that in the middle of this mess, there was enough liquidity to create new retail highs.
DeleteI was sure people would buy as therapy. But never heard mention of it.
The $600 per week supplemental was for those unemployed workers receives unemployment benefits. That program expired last month.
ReplyDeleteThere was a separate program for independent contractors and self employed individuals who would not qualify for unemployment benefits. That program could provide up to 39 weeks of benefits "starting with weeks of unemployment beginning on or after January 27, 2020, and ending on or before December 31, 2020. The amount of benefits paid out will vary by state and are calculated based on the weekly benefit amounts (WBA) provided under a state’s unemployment insurance laws. Under the CARES Act, the WBA may be supplemented by the additional unemployment assistance provided under the Act." There would be people still receiving benefits under that program until there 39 weeks run out (9.75 months) or they no longer qualify for benefits.
https://www.dol.gov/coronavirus/unemployment-insurance#faqs
Looks like Mary Trump secretly recorded conversation with Donald's sister Maryanne Trump Barry.
ReplyDelete"In secretly recorded audio, President Trump’s sister says he has ‘no principles’ and ‘you can’t trust him’"
That is the title of the article just published at the WP.
It was Trump's sister who told Mary Trump that Donald paid someone to take the SAT and that she did his college homework for him.
Donald's sister repeatedly calls him a liar in the taped conversations. Donald of course lies all of the time about almost everything.
Donald's sister also made this statement: "Donald is cruel".
Of course, that is true, and is obvious to anyone who has not drank the GOP's Kool-Aid.
I finished listening to Mary Trump's book on audio at Scribd.com. She read her book.
Bob Woodward is coming out with another book on 9/15/20 called "Rage".
That book will probably be made available at Scribd as well, so I will it there.
I will not bother with Michael Cohen's book that will be released next month. Apparently, he is going to make a claim about a "golden shower", not in Moscow as claimed in the Steele dossier, but in a Vegas sex club.
https://www.businessinsider.com/michael-cohen-new-book-trump-golden-showers-vegas-club-2020-8
None of what is being revealed will change many minds.
Donald's hold on his cult members is as ironclad as any political leader in the world today and will last even if he is defeated and actually leaves office when defeated. The GOP is Trump's party now. No separation exists between the party and Donald and what he represents.
Wow. Wow. and "LORDY, THERE ARE TAPES."
DeleteThis will be fun tomorrow.
I was in queue for Trump's book. It's disappeared. I have to ask the library why.
Woodward's book looks promising too. I'd like to read Cohen's but it'd be a lower priority.
Reappeared in queue. 100 out of several copies. In the other library 75 on 1 copy. Trump will be defeated before I read it...
DeleteToday was a last shall be first kind of day. With the DJIA closing up 378.13 or 1.3% and SPX finished up 24.12 or 1%, the high flying First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN) closed down $.16:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fdn
The regional bank ETF KRE closed up $1.6 or 4.24%:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
There is no hope on the horizon that the net interest margin compression will end for the banks. The FED is still likely to continue for an extended period suppressing interest rates below the inflation rate.
The rally in regional banks today was linked either to some kind of mass delusion or a herd opinion that loan losses may not be as bad as though last Friday which may be the same thing.
The banks would fit in the value category and there was a tilt toward value today.
Vanguard Value ETF (own)
$107.26 +$1.54 +1.46%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv
If loan losses have already peaked for the banks, and that is a big if, the regional banks supporting 5%+ dividends and P/Es less than 12 times trailing GAAP earnings may be of some interest to those becoming concerned about sky high multiples in non-dividend paying stocks or anemic dividend yields due to massive price appreciations in the growth names.
I think today was based on the Trump announcement of a plasma procedure that's already being used when appropriate, that he pushed to fast track.... that...whatever.
ReplyDeleteSo it's time to celebrate the recovery that's happening everywhere (except in real world.)
I am going to do a $5k buy-in. With sell orders underneath.
I wasn't paying attention today (other important task at hand), but on the next day that I am.
Though your last assessment might be on the nose. I started wondering about small cap value. There's articles on it. Maybe it's where money is moving. There isn't a lot of room left in the tech stocks to buy in.
I don't know what to say. I'm not finding sense in the market at the moment. The VIX is getting nearer to normal.
ATHs with the VIX elevated. Has that happened before? In 1999. Otherwise?
Land: After Trigger Events as defined in my VIX Model, the best time to lighten up is when the VIX returns to below 20 movement. That is based on the historical record where volatility declined as stock prices recovered after a Trigger Event eventually taking the VIX back below 20.
DeleteThe VIX closed at 21.93 yesterday.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix
I bought into the Volatility Event which proved once again to be beneficial.
Once the VIX returns to below 20 movement, two alternate scenarios may happen.
One of those scenarios is consistent with an Unstable VIX Pattern. The stock market is unable to maintain a stable vix pattern movement below 20 for long and volatility spikes again into the upper 20s or higher as stocks decline again.
The other scenario is that the VIX remains in below 20 movement long enough to form a Stable Vix Pattern where the dominant direction remains up.
If I had to guess which scenario will occur, it would be the first one.
As to the plasma treatment, it was already being used by doctors with either limited success or no benefit.
This kind of treatment was used in the Spanish Flu epidemic and in treating other virus infections.
The FDA emergency authorization simply makes it more widely available as a treatment option since it cuts down on the paperwork needed for its use.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-did-fda-authorize-convalescent-plasma-potential-treatment-covid-19-n1237848
Video:
https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/how-does-plasma-work-as-a-treatment-for-the-coronavirus-90560581605
I wrote something this morning then didn't post it when I realized how backwards it was.
DeleteI'm asking if VIX high has coincided with ATHs. Well as the VIX comes down below 20, I *remember* some of the pre-big-crashes made it to ATHs. Maybe not as clearly while the VIX was still totally elevated. But during the unstable vix pattern, there were times that the SPX got higher than it's old highs, while distress was clearly a foot (in hindsight) and according to the VIX patterns.
(Would be interesting to go back and see if there were ATHs while the VIX was still quite elevated, or they always happened while under 20.)
It's possible market will stay in a trading range for a while, rather than dip.
With the possiblity of moving to stable vix, it's not as obvious as in other crashes, to short the market once vix is under 20.
I don't have any feel for what way it will go.
I can't believe the market is higher today.
There is still no clear evidence that the bulk of investors have given up on the QQQ stocks. Rotations out of growth into value stocks are generally 1 or 2 day occurrences with no follow through, as growth stocks reassert their dominant trend up.
ReplyDeleteThe is some light pullback in Apple so far today:
$495.74 -7.69 -1.53%
Aug 25, 2020 2:11 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl
Apple closed out 2019 at $293+.
If Apple collapsed to $300, then it would take the entire market with it but that price would still be above where it started this year.
++++
I am giving the republican and democrat conventions equal time. I am not watching any of it.
I will read some fact check articles about what was said. The WP fact checked the first day of the RNC convention and just focused on the more important 19 false and misleading statements.
If you like being lied to, then by all means watch the rest.
+++
I did buy today as a placeholder 1 share of VBR at $115.5:
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF
115.70 -0.6949 -0.60%
at Aug 25, 2020 at 2:19 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vbr
Sponsor's website:
https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VBR
Historically, small cap value stocks have done well but have underperformed small cap growth this year which has substantially underperformed the QQQ.
Small cap stocks will generally have higher betas than large cap ones and can be more volatile as well. The lack of liquidity for many of them probably exacerbates their price declines during major QQQ and SPY declines for that reason, since a lot of selling is tied to index funds and derivatives (non-valuation based as to specific stocks).
The value stock index funds generally select stocks for inclusion that have lower P/E ratios, revenues to price, and price to book than the stocks classified as growth.
VBR tracks the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Value Index:
http://www.crsp.org/products/investment-products/crsp-us-small-cap-value-index
There hasn't been follow through on the rotations...
DeleteIt's unclear whether rotation means confidence in it ending and being even rosier. Or merely that tech is overloaded, and the hunt is moving elsewhere but then worry sets in so it's back to tech and the covid safe stocks.
I tried to watch the RNC last night. My mute button got plenty of exercise. There was the presentation of how well the economy is doing. Economic history ended in last January apparently. Nothing else that I heard even that much content in.
Some of the DNC convention was surprisingly good. Their focus was we're all one country, and we do best together. They had a number of Republicans and Conservatives on. Keep to short clips so it was very watchable. Didn't get into much detail on plans.
I think I've owned VBR. I may still in my 401k. I'll put that on my list to visit. Small caps often lose out on divs. But they add good diversity. At least they aren't filled with FAANG stocks.
Land: The general idea is to stay with what is working until it doesn't. Money manager are rewarded for buying the FAANG stocks and other QQQ type names so that is what they buy.
DeleteThere are some underlying reasons for growth to outperform value in the current economic environment and the herd consensus on low interest rates and inflation going until Judgment Day.
Generally speaking, earnings growth is hard to generate without inflation and hence becomes more valuable. Growth stocks are generally performed well on the earnings front notwithstanding the pandemic; and many are prospering because of it. I can't say that about regional banks or energy stocks.
The reason value outperforms over longer periods of time is that the growth names reach absurd valuations, eventually bringing forward the best possible earnings for a decade or more into the current P/E. Then they stagnant for awhile even though earnings may continue to grow, though disappointing in many cases on the rate of growth.
Another option on small cap value is the CEF Royce Micro-Cap Trust (RMT):
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/RMT
I had no idea value outperforms over the long term.
DeleteSeems worth putting some money into grown to ride the absurd valuations, during their obvious rising periods.
If growth is harder during low inflation, I'd expect value to do better. Not for whatever growth can be had, to be rewarded.
This environment seems like an opportunity to move to value and solid companies. The market disagrees and thinks current earnings ability is key. They may be right.
Haven't heard of RMT before...
Land: Small cap value has outperformed all others over the past 30 years but started to lose some ground in September 2018. Over the past 30 years, however, it is still at # 1:
Deletehttps://www.longtermtrends.net/growth-stocks-vs-value-stocks/
Wilshire Small Cap Growth at +2,370%
Wilshire Large Cap Growth at +2,055%
https://www.longtermtrends.net/growth-stocks-vs-value-stocks/
One reason for the long term outperformance is based on the dividend difference in favor of value stocks that has a compounding effect over time.
The difference widens more in favor of value going back to 1927:
https://anchorcapital.com/growth-vs-value-historical-perspective/
However, if you start about 10 years ago, value has clearly lagged growth.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/lu/en/asset-management/per/insights/market-insights/on-the-minds-of-investors/can-value-outperform-growth/
LAND: Instead of watching 1 second of the republican convention, I started watching The Hunting of Hill House on Netflix which is loosely based on Shirley Jackson's novel, preferring a horror television series to the real life horror of the GOP convention featuring the Trumps and associates.
ReplyDeleteStephen King referred to the novel as one of the best horror novels of the 20th century. Shirley Jackson is better known for her short story "The Lottery" which was required reading in one of high school classes.
+++
Few indexes track the DJIA, the most prominent being the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) which has over $22+B in assets. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/dia
Over $12 trillion is indexed to the S & P 500.
Pfizer is going to be replaced in the DJIA with AMGN. There is no good reason for this response today based on that announcement IMO:
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
$248.22 +$12.65 +5.37%
Pfizer (PFE)
$38.41 -$0.43 -1.11%
The DJIA component changes take effect before the market opens next Monday.
It is fitting that Exxon is being replaced by a software company, Salesforce (CRM)
The changes are in large part caused by the 4 to 1 Apple stock split and the quirky way the DJIA components are weighted.
salesforce.com Inc.
$216.05 7.59 +3.64%
CRM reported after the close today:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/salesforce-announces-strong-second-quarter-fiscal-2021-results-301118229.html
I had the convention on for a moment. A woman was talking about the eugenics root of planned parent hood. Then that PP's locations are in inner cities and poor neighborhoods.
DeleteThat should give you nightmares if Jackson's novel doesn't. I think I read The Lottery as an assignment too. I'm not fond of horror movies. I now how The Big Bang Theory on. I didn't last long on the convention.
Noticed, that MSNBC and CNN are playing the exact same camera angles and changes at the same time. So there is only one camera, and they're getting it's feed.
I wish I'd bought back CRM.
Good to know about these various switches.
salesforce has popped in the after hours session in response to its earnings report:
ReplyDeleteAFTER HOURS CFM
$244.37 +$28.32 +13.11%
After Hours Volume: 4.1M
Last Updated: Aug 25, 2020 at 7:34 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crm
This is not the kind of stock that I buy.
It is the 4th largest component in an ETF that I own, the iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF (TECB)
Sponsor's Website:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/312046/
Since I last discussed TECB, I have bought 10 shares in another taxable account and will briefly mentioned that in my next weekly post.
I don't believe that CRM is currently in the QQQ. CRM did recently become a component of the S & P 100. The ETF for that index, OEF, has it at a .98% weighting currently.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239723/ishares-sp-100-etf
CRM fits into my goals and portfolio. I wouldn't want a whole portfolio of these, but could use the extra growth.
ReplyDeleteI might be better off though in ETFs with such stocks for diversity.
Salesforce.com Inc (CRM):
ReplyDelete$257.85 +41.801 +19.35%
Last Updated: Aug 26, 2020 at 9:54 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crm
CRM is boosting the cloud computing sector. I own 2 cloud computing ETFs: SKYY and CLOU.
Of those two, CLOU has the higher weighting in CRM at 4.02% as of 8/25/20. SKYY had a weighting of 2.19%. Both weightings will be higher after today based on CRM's price pop.
Global X Cloud Computing ETF (CLOU)
$23.75 +$1.00 +4.40%
Last Updated: Aug 26, 2020 at 10:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/clou
Before checking the weightings this morning, I thought CRM's weighting would have been higher in cloud computing ETFs.
The CRM weighting in FDN is higher than CLOU or SKYY at 4.82% as of 8/25/20:
DeleteFirst Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
$194.51 +4.95 +2.61%
Last Updated: Aug 26, 2020 10:08 a.m. EDT
I own a few shares.
AIO, a CEF that I own, had a 1.16% weighting in CRM as of 6/30/20, with 47,200 shares.
Holdings as of 5/31/20 Owned 57,280 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1778114/000175272420136648/NPORT_10498407718827441.htm
It's doing well. I wish I'd re-bought my shares.
DeleteIt's hard for there to be opportunity of big pull back because many people are ready this time to buy, just like me.
Land: Investors will buy the dips until they get crushed doing so. By crushed I mean a dominant trend that is down, with lower lows and lower highs, that lasts for a long time.
DeleteProspects for a stimulus package are looking dim:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/coronavirus-stimulus-update-pelosi-meadows-phone-call-makes-no-progress.html
FEMA is spending its cash reserves now to pay that extra $300 per week in unemployment benefits. The checks were predicted to exhaust the cash in about 4 weeks before this hurricane hit the Gulf coast.
Reality isn't good at the moment. IOWA isn't getting money for anything except federal property and concerns. I'm surprised Trump even cared about those. Maybe he sees the Fed properties as his own.
DeleteHurricanes. Fires. Covid. Fema had better things to be spent on, than replacing McConnell's recalcitrance.
On the NYSE today, there were 1,175 securities that were up and 1,819 down. The Nasdaq had 1,175 securities up in price and 1,819.
ReplyDeleteMajor index price gains are still concentrated in a relatively few large capitalization "growth" stocks.
Invesco QQQ
$291.96 +$6.10 +2.13%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qqq
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
$197.63 +$8.07 +4.26%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fdn?mod=mw_quote_recentlyviewed
Vanguard Value ETF
$106.83 -$0.29 -0.27%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv
In the value category, I would include SONA discussed in this post:
Southern National Bancorp of Virginia Inc.
$8.57 -$0.20 -2.28%
Tangible Book Value per share as of 6/30= $11.21
YIELD 4.67%
TTM GAAP P/E = 9.26
52 WEEK RANGE $7.58 - $16.85
Who cares? Almost nobody. The stock got a tiny bit of momentum going during the afternoon session, moving from $8.5 to $8.73; but then gave up most of that in the last hour.
I have a question though. If I bought Apple today at its closing price of $506.29 and SONA at $8.57, which one will double first-Apple at $1,012.58 or SONA at $17.14?
It's interesting how yesterday's rally was concentrated. Really interesting to see the A/Ds. I hadn't noticed at all. That's to say it didn't have an obvious feeling on a general look.
DeleteToday did the reverse of yesterday.
My holdings aren't doing great. A few stocks are still up, and the indices, but several individuals are not at higher or even that near to it. LMT for instance had been bouncing near 400, then broke up for a few days. Now it's been in 380's.
Bank stocks are a lot harder to assess than a tech stock. That's part of the disparity and tech appeals. Plus the idea that they are magical.
So based on that magic, I'll go with Apple doubling first.
It's a good question! I will be curious to see!
Land: I will go with SONA doubling before Apple based on the prices indicated in my previous comment.
DeleteThere were more advancers than decliners today on the NYSE, but not on the Nasdaq.
You can access that data without a WSJ subscription here:
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
The bank stocks are a focus of my small ball buying "programs" for the past two weeks. There was an uptick today in regional banks, but their upside momentum has generally lasted only a few days with the dominant trend being a bear market.
Still, I view them as underpriced in the future economic scenario being predicted by the Stock Jock herd.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$39.36 $0.78 2.02%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Much better than the S & P 500 at +.17% and the Nasdaq at -.34%
The Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF was up .9%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vbr
You're going with SONA. SONA is certainly easier to picture doubling first. My cynical "bone" is strong at the moment.
DeleteThanks for the link!
The banks too, offer some div comparatively. Always a nice benefit.
In this August 2020 post, I posed a question whether SONA, a mini-cap bank holding company, would double in price before Apple.
DeleteThe Apple price was then $506.29, and that needs to be adjusted to $126.57 for the subsequent 4 for 1 stock split.
Apple
$119.49 +0.45 +0.38%
Last Updated: Oct 19, 2020 at 11:16 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl
Apple is down -5.59% from its starting point.
SONA was then at $8.57 and last traded at $9.8 or a +14.35% increase.
Southern National Bancorp of Virginia (SONA)
$9.80 +$0.02 +0.15%
I just randomly picked SONA out os mini cap bank holding company stocks.
The point that I am making is the past is not necessarily prologue for the future.
SONA's stock price had almost been cut in half off its 52 week high of $16.85, had a lower P/E than APPL and a higher dividend yield. SONA earnings growth will probably be higher after the pandemic, at least compared to 2020 and a few years thereafter assuming no recession.
The winner is declared when the first stock doubles in price:
Doubles at
SONA at $17.14
APPLE: $253.14
It's much easier/cheaper to trade Toronto on IBKR. Their spread is minimal, the commission is 0.01 CAD/share with 1 CAD minimum and trading is much more flexible, Fidelity takes only day orders.
ReplyDelete... For example, when you have to sell CADs to buy a Canadian stock in Toronto, that is a tax event, ...
ReplyDeleteDon't get it. Using your CADs to buy TSE stock is considered a tax event? I thought that exchanging CADS for USD bought previously with USD would be considered a tax event but just spending them? Are you sure?
WG: I will only use IB now for foreign currency transactions and buying on foreign exchanges. At the moment, I have only a surplus of CADs and AUDs. If I wanted to buy a security priced in another currency, I would need to buy that currency first using USDs.
DeleteAs a U.S. taxpayer and citizen, I was told by a CPA that selling any capital asset, including a foreign currency, creates a tax reporting event. I am not an accountant.
I believe the relevant IRS code section is 988 which does not apply to conversions made for personal purposes. When buying and selling currencies at IB, those are not personal transactions but investment related activities.
http://publications.ruchelaw.com/news/2014-05/Vol.1No.04-03_Tax%20101-FX.pdf
https://www.investmentnews.com/reporting-a-clients-foreign-currency-tax-transactions-tax-news-information-investment-news-23770
IB does not include those currency sells in a 1099 sent to the IRS, but all of them are included in the year end tax information package that IB furnishes to me.
I will sell CADs to buy a security on the Toronto exchange when trading at IB.
Every CAD in my IB account has a USD cost basis assigned to it.
Even when I receive dividends paid in CADs, those funds receive a U.S. dollar tax basis as would the CAD proceeds received from selling a position.
If you have an IB account and have traded foreign currencies (e.g. selling CADs to buy a Canadian stock in Toronto), you will find that information near the end of the IB tax package. My list will run on for many pages.
When I sell those CADs to buy a security, I am selling an asset which is a reportable tax event, with the gain or loss determined based on the difference in the USD tax cost basis of each CAD sold and the USD value of the CADs sold.
There is a different rule, which you can check, when a currency exchange is made for personal use, like buying Euros using USDs for a vacation in Europe. There is an exemption from taxation of up to $200 per transaction.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/int_practice_units/fcu_cu_c_18_2_1_04.pdf
https://thismatter.com/money/tax/foreign-currency-transactions-taxation.htm
Thanks for this, I had the IBKR account for less than a year so I haven't seen their yearly tax package yet. Frankly this stinks, if true, as it complicates the trading on TSE tremendously.
ReplyDeleteBesides that could not possibly apply in all situations. To see it, say you had some CADs earned (and already taxed by both governments) from some summer stint in Canada long time ago and had them stashed away in some Canadian bank for all those years. They obviously had no US cost basis to them. You could have exchanged them to USD at any time w/o acquiring any US tax liability on it.
Now, say, you transfer them to US IBKR and there those CADs somehow automagically suddenly acquire US cost basis so if you exchange them later at a better rate than prevailing on the transfer date you will owe tax to IRS? It could not be so, could it?
re the original premise. I fully agree with "...When buying and selling currencies at IB, those are not personal transactions but investment related activities. ...". But once bought, they are yours to use anyway you wish, including purchasing foreign stock and such use could not logically be considered buying that currency again. I think.
ReplyDeleteWG: I will not have to think about what would happen if I exchanged CADs for USDs and then withdrew all or some of the USDs through a transfer to my checking account, used solely for personal expenses. If I exchange CADs back into USDs, it will be to take a profit on the CADs as a trade and that would be a reportable tax event. I have done that in the past. My general rule of thumb is to consider exchanging CADs for USDs when the CAD/USD exchange rate is over .8:
DeleteItem # 1.A. Bought USD$15K Using C$18,747.15 ($2 IB conversion fee built into rate):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/search/label/Currency%20Trades
"the realized gain for CAD currency exchanges is currently at $1,123 (consisting of a ST profit of $1,206.93 and a LT loss of $85.78)" That was as of 8/2017.
IB does a good job IMO of tracking the USD cost basis which it has to do when computing gains and losses on 1099 reportable trades. U.S. citizens do not report their realized gains and losses in CADs but in USDs which means that both the initial cost of a security purchased in Toronto using CADs and the proceeds paid in CADs when that security is sold are assigned a USD cost basis when made.
If you ran a YTD statement at IB, there will be a computation provided therein for currency gains and losses. For CADs, I have gains and losses with a net loss of slightly more than US$45. Since my USD cost basis for the remaining CADs is lower than the current CAD/USD exchange rate, any sell now of C$1K would likely send me into a net profit.
From FG's
ReplyDelete"Additional all-time highs this week helped to further boost sentiment as the percentage of investors reporting as bullish in AAII's weekly sentiment survey rose to 32.08% from 30.39% last week. That is the highest level of bullish sentiment since mid-June when it spent two weeks above 34%. Think about that for a minute. While the S&P 500 makes new record highs, still less than a third of these investors consider themselves bullish.
On the other hand, a short-term indicator of sentiment is telling us traders are getting cocky now. It seems some of the newly minted geniuses have found the "options" game to their liking. That has led to a boom in options volume with most of the increase in trading activity in these derivatives going to "call" options.
In the past that has led to a selloff taking the "experts" piling into calls out to the woodshed for a brief lesson on "investing" versus speculating. However, there remains the question of when that might occur or if we will see this situation resolve itself with sector rotation chasing out the speculators.""
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/bam-brgpra-fcf-fivg-jcap-jcaprb-kgfhy.html