Economy:
Second quarter real GDP in the U.S. declined at an estimated annual rate of 32.9%. This is the government's first estimate. 1st quarter real GDP fell by 5%. Personal consumption expenditures declined at a 34.6% annualized rate. Equipment investment fell at a 37.7% annualized rate. Those are easily the worst quarterly numbers since the U.S. started to compile this data.
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
U.S. second-quarter GDP plunged by a historic 32.9%
On a non-annualized basis, U.S. GDP shrank about 9.5% between the first and second quarters.
The estimate was lower than expected and broadly in line with projections made over the past month or so.
There were some unusual contributors to GDP growth. Bank Fees on Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Lending Boosted the Economy in the Second Quarter. Here Are 3 Statistical Quirks From the Worst-Ever GDP Reading. - Barron's
Ignore GDP. Here’s What Investors Should Watch for Economic Insights During the Pandemic. - Barron's
Weekly Economic Index (WEI) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
The number of small businesses that remained open was down 14.7% as of July 18th compared to January 2020. Economic Tracker The decline was at -8.3% as of 7/4/20 compared to 1/2020.
For the week ending 7/25/20, new unemployment claims increased to 1.434M. News Release That number does not include the 829,697 initial claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). The total number of people claiming benefits "in all programs for the week ending July 11 was 30,202,498. The PUA is the program that provides an additional $600 per week, which has just expired without an extension. Extra $600 CARES Act unemployment benefit ends July 31: Here's where things stand - CNET
Here's what changed in the July Fed statement
Germany's 2nd quarter GDP declined by 10.1% and 11.7% Y-O-Y. Coronavirus leads to record drop in German GDP
Euro zone GDP sinks 12.1% in Q2 2020 as coronavirus crisis hits This is not an annualized decline number but the decline from the previous quarter. I would note that the EU's fiscal stimulus was only recently agreed upon by the member states. EU recovery plan: Leaders strike 'historic' deal to rebuild economy after coronavirus (7/21/20)
Eurostat GDP Data (7/31/20):
Despite Historic Plunge, Europe’s Economy Flashes Signs of Recovery - The New York Times
Second quarter real GDP in the U.S. declined at an estimated annual rate of 32.9%. This is the government's first estimate. 1st quarter real GDP fell by 5%. Personal consumption expenditures declined at a 34.6% annualized rate. Equipment investment fell at a 37.7% annualized rate. Those are easily the worst quarterly numbers since the U.S. started to compile this data.
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
U.S. second-quarter GDP plunged by a historic 32.9%
On a non-annualized basis, U.S. GDP shrank about 9.5% between the first and second quarters.
The estimate was lower than expected and broadly in line with projections made over the past month or so.
There were some unusual contributors to GDP growth. Bank Fees on Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Lending Boosted the Economy in the Second Quarter. Here Are 3 Statistical Quirks From the Worst-Ever GDP Reading. - Barron's
PPP Fees Paid by the Federal Government to Banks |
Weekly Economic Index (WEI) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
The number of small businesses that remained open was down 14.7% as of July 18th compared to January 2020. Economic Tracker The decline was at -8.3% as of 7/4/20 compared to 1/2020.
For the week ending 7/25/20, new unemployment claims increased to 1.434M. News Release That number does not include the 829,697 initial claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). The total number of people claiming benefits "in all programs for the week ending July 11 was 30,202,498. The PUA is the program that provides an additional $600 per week, which has just expired without an extension. Extra $600 CARES Act unemployment benefit ends July 31: Here's where things stand - CNET
Here's what changed in the July Fed statement
Germany's 2nd quarter GDP declined by 10.1% and 11.7% Y-O-Y. Coronavirus leads to record drop in German GDP
Euro zone GDP sinks 12.1% in Q2 2020 as coronavirus crisis hits This is not an annualized decline number but the decline from the previous quarter. I would note that the EU's fiscal stimulus was only recently agreed upon by the member states. EU recovery plan: Leaders strike 'historic' deal to rebuild economy after coronavirus (7/21/20)
Eurostat GDP Data (7/31/20):
Despite Historic Plunge, Europe’s Economy Flashes Signs of Recovery - The New York Times
The July consumer confidence index dipped to 92.6 from June's 98.3. The consensus for July was at 95.5.
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Markets and Market Commentary:
As of 7/31/20, the S & P 500 had a 31.9 P/E based on trailing 12 month GAAP actual earnings. The forward P/E, using estimated non-GAAP earnings, was 25.45. P/E & Yields
2 Year GLD Chart:
10-year Treasury yield plunged to its lowest in 234 years, says Deutsche Bank - MarketWatch So far the FED has been successful in suppressing interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum.
After the close yesterday, Fitch cuts its outlook for U.S. government debt to negative from stable. Fitch and Moody's currently rate U.S. debt at AAA. Fitch Revises United States' Outlook to Negative; Affirms at AAA S & P rates U.S. debt at AA+ after downgrading it from AAA back in 2011. I am anticipating a series of debt rating downgrades over the next 20 years or so.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio fears for the dollar and the ‘soundness of our money,’ and here’s why - MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs has a new blowout forecast for gold - MarketWatch The new GS target is $2,300 per oz within 12 months, up from $2K.
Buy stock dips because the S&P 500 could ‘easily’ reach 3,500 next year, says Credit Suisse - MarketWatch
Buy American, says Europe’s largest asset manager - MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs has a new blowout forecast for gold - MarketWatch The new GS target is $2,300 per oz within 12 months, up from $2K.
Buy stock dips because the S&P 500 could ‘easily’ reach 3,500 next year, says Credit Suisse - MarketWatch
Buy American, says Europe’s largest asset manager - MarketWatch
AT&T's Second Quarter Was a Bust | The Motley Fool I view AT & T common stock as a bond substitute. When a stock is so characterized, victory is defined as a 6% annual average total return secured through dividends, either with a slight loss or gain in the shares. I own shares.
Gladstone Commercial Corporation Reports Results for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2020 (GOOD)(FFO at $.41 per share; "collected 98% of cash rents due during April, May and June during the COVID-19 global pandemic; (remaining 2% of cash rents were rent deferrals to be paid in full no later than March 2021") I own shares.
Bar Harbor Bankshares Reports Second Quarter Results ("reported second quarter 2020 net income of $8.5 million or $0.55 per share; up 41% over the same quarter of 2019 of $6.1 million or $0.39 per share. The non-GAAP measure of core earnings in the second quarter 2020 totaled $8.6 million, or $0.56 per share compared to $6.3 million or $0.41 per share of the same quarter of 2019.") I own shares.
McDonald's (MCD) Q2 2020 earnings miss estimates (E.P.S. $.66 adjusted vs. consensus of $.74, down from $1.97 in the 2019 second quarter, with revenues declining by almost 30% Y-O-Y).
Pfizer ups 2020 outlook and reports better-than-expected earnings (adjusted E.P.S. of $.78 vs. consensus at $.66; revenue down 11% Y-O-Y but better then expected) I own shares.
3M (MMM) Q2 2020 earnings
W. P. Carey Q2 beats; sees dialing up investment activity in H2 (NYSE:WPC) | Seeking Alpha I own shares.
Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results (NII of $.40 per share, up from $.37; net asset value per share at $11.64' undistributed spillover income of $.42 per share; declared next 3 months of its $.1 per share monthly dividend) I own shares.
P&G Stock Gains as Covid Boosted Sales for Premium Cleaning Products - Barron's (7/30/20)
Wayfair Won't Be the Last Company to Take a Hit from QAnon - Barron's This particular fact free conspiracy theory claims that Wayfair "operated a vast child trafficking operation in which it ships and sells children in its industrial cabinets." 11 GOP congressional nominees support QAnon conspiracy - Axios
OFS Capital Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results (NII of $.19 per share, missing consensus by 1 cent; net asset value per share increased to $10.10 as of 6/30/20 from $9.71 as of 3/31/20; Board declared quarterly dividend of $.17 per share; one loan was placed on nonaccrual during the quarter) I own shares.
Gladstone Commercial Corporation Reports Results for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2020 (GOOD)(FFO at $.41 per share; "collected 98% of cash rents due during April, May and June during the COVID-19 global pandemic; (remaining 2% of cash rents were rent deferrals to be paid in full no later than March 2021") I own shares.
Bar Harbor Bankshares Reports Second Quarter Results ("reported second quarter 2020 net income of $8.5 million or $0.55 per share; up 41% over the same quarter of 2019 of $6.1 million or $0.39 per share. The non-GAAP measure of core earnings in the second quarter 2020 totaled $8.6 million, or $0.56 per share compared to $6.3 million or $0.41 per share of the same quarter of 2019.") I own shares.
McDonald's (MCD) Q2 2020 earnings miss estimates (E.P.S. $.66 adjusted vs. consensus of $.74, down from $1.97 in the 2019 second quarter, with revenues declining by almost 30% Y-O-Y).
Pfizer ups 2020 outlook and reports better-than-expected earnings (adjusted E.P.S. of $.78 vs. consensus at $.66; revenue down 11% Y-O-Y but better then expected) I own shares.
3M (MMM) Q2 2020 earnings
W. P. Carey Q2 beats; sees dialing up investment activity in H2 (NYSE:WPC) | Seeking Alpha I own shares.
Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results (NII of $.40 per share, up from $.37; net asset value per share at $11.64' undistributed spillover income of $.42 per share; declared next 3 months of its $.1 per share monthly dividend) I own shares.
P&G Stock Gains as Covid Boosted Sales for Premium Cleaning Products - Barron's (7/30/20)
Wayfair Won't Be the Last Company to Take a Hit from QAnon - Barron's This particular fact free conspiracy theory claims that Wayfair "operated a vast child trafficking operation in which it ships and sells children in its industrial cabinets." 11 GOP congressional nominees support QAnon conspiracy - Axios
OFS Capital Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results (NII of $.19 per share, missing consensus by 1 cent; net asset value per share increased to $10.10 as of 6/30/20 from $9.71 as of 3/31/20; Board declared quarterly dividend of $.17 per share; one loan was placed on nonaccrual during the quarter) I own shares.
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Trump:
New Senate GOP coronavirus bill includes unrelated White House demand for FBI headquarters money
Shortly after becoming President, Trump nixed an advanced plan to sell the FBI headquarters and to build a new one in a suburban location.
Trump was concerned that the current location would be redeveloped to include a hotel that would compete with the Trump International Hotel located one block away from the existing FBI headquarters.
Trump wants to appropriate and spend money to implement his plan before leaving office in order to prevent that competition.
Trump’s Interference in the FBI Headquarters Relocation Plan - American Oversight;
The Administration's Attempts to Stonewall Investigations of Trump FBI Headquarters Interference Stumble in Court - American Oversight;
IG Confirms Trump’s Involvement in FBI Headquarters Project Across From His Hotel - Roll Call
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Trump and his Trumpsters, the primary generators of Fake News in the world today, will continue spreading false information and conspiracy theories, no matter what is done to impede them.
Trump Retweets COVID-19 Video Yanked By Social Media For Pushing Fake Cure;
Trump tweets misleading Stella Immanuel coronavirus video deleted by Facebook - The Washington Post;
Twitter removes tweet highlighted by Trump falsely claiming COVID-19 'cure'
Dark money and PAC's coordinated 'reopen' push are behind doctors' viral hydroxychloroquine video
The video shows Stella Immanuel, dressed in a physician's garb, claiming that hydroxychloroquine is a COVID-19 cure.
She serves as the head of Five Point Ministries that promotes "miracles, healings and deliverance." Apparently, she operates a clinic out of a strip mall adjacent to this ministry.
Ms. Immanuel also claims that no one needs to wear a face mask.
Stella Immanuel, Trump’s New COVID-19 Doctor, Believes in Alien DNA, Demon Sperm, and Hydroxychloroquine;
Opinion | Americans are suffering. Trump offers them a doctor who warns of sex with demons. - The Washington Post (Dr. Immanuel claims that "endometriosis and other potentially dangerous gynecological conditions are the residue of sexual intercourse with demons.")
Woman in viral COVID-19 misinformation video fears demon sex, aliens - Business Insider
A Fight For The Soul Of America Is A Fight For The World - YouTube (Dr. Stella Immanuel: "How long are we going to allow the gay agenda, secular humanism, Illuminati and the demonic New World Order to destroy our homes, families and the social fiber of America." Those demons are "spirit husbands" and "spirit wives" who visit humans in "sexy dreams")
I know that those demons have not visited me since I do not recall a "sexy dream", but I am curious whether the "alien DNA" can prevent my increasing number of brain malfunctions. Maybe Dr. Immanuel knows where I can find some.
Trump remarked at a briefing on 7/28 that Dr. Immanuel's statements in the video about hydroxychloroquine being a cure for Covid-19 were "spectacular" in Doctor Don's opinion. Doofus Don also claimed that the other doctors appearing in the video, financed by the Tea Party Patriots, were "well respected".
After Facebook removed her video, Ms. Immanuel said that God would destroy's Facebook's servers if the video was not restored.
However, for anyone wishing to watch her sermons, there are plenty of them available for viewing.
My idea is that Donald needs to drop Pence as VP now, substituting Ms Immanuel now as the appropriate republican response to Biden's choice.
Fauci rebukes Trump's renewed push for ineffective Covid-19 treatment
Donald held a rally in Texas last Wednesday where few, including Donald, wore a mask or practiced social distancing. Donald Trump campaigns WITHOUT a mask in Texas despite state's coroanvirus surge | Daily Mail OnlineFew At Trump's Texas Energy Event Seen Wearing Masks, Social Distancing
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Trump tax returns: Lawyers seek to block Manhattan DA Vance subpoena
Local stations across the country set to air Fauci conspiracy theory over the weekend - CNN;
Trump was secretly recorded boasting on speakerphone of how many retweets he got for a post defending Confederate base names
Sinclair gives “Plandemic" conspiracy theorists a platform to spread their lies about Dr. Fauci and the coronavirus | Media Matters for America
This particular conspiracy theory claims that Dr. Fauci invented Covid-19 and gave it to China who then weaponized it.
The republican mind, as Trump knows full well, will accept as fact any fact free conspiracy theory no matter how ridiculous. Sinclair is bringing right-wing COVID-19 talking points and conspiracy theories to local news stations | Media Matters for America
The Sinclair Broadcast Group owns 191 TV stations in 89 U.S. markets. I boycott their Nashville, TN. station WZTV. Sinclair is a far right oriented media organization that supports Trump.
New Senate GOP coronavirus bill includes unrelated White House demand for FBI headquarters money
Shortly after becoming President, Trump nixed an advanced plan to sell the FBI headquarters and to build a new one in a suburban location.
Trump was concerned that the current location would be redeveloped to include a hotel that would compete with the Trump International Hotel located one block away from the existing FBI headquarters.
Trump wants to appropriate and spend money to implement his plan before leaving office in order to prevent that competition.
Trump’s Interference in the FBI Headquarters Relocation Plan - American Oversight;
The Administration's Attempts to Stonewall Investigations of Trump FBI Headquarters Interference Stumble in Court - American Oversight;
IG Confirms Trump’s Involvement in FBI Headquarters Project Across From His Hotel - Roll Call
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Trump and his Trumpsters, the primary generators of Fake News in the world today, will continue spreading false information and conspiracy theories, no matter what is done to impede them.
Trump Retweets COVID-19 Video Yanked By Social Media For Pushing Fake Cure;
Trump tweets misleading Stella Immanuel coronavirus video deleted by Facebook - The Washington Post;
Twitter removes tweet highlighted by Trump falsely claiming COVID-19 'cure'
Dark money and PAC's coordinated 'reopen' push are behind doctors' viral hydroxychloroquine video
The video shows Stella Immanuel, dressed in a physician's garb, claiming that hydroxychloroquine is a COVID-19 cure.
She serves as the head of Five Point Ministries that promotes "miracles, healings and deliverance." Apparently, she operates a clinic out of a strip mall adjacent to this ministry.
Ms. Immanuel also claims that no one needs to wear a face mask.
Stella Immanuel, Trump’s New COVID-19 Doctor, Believes in Alien DNA, Demon Sperm, and Hydroxychloroquine;
Opinion | Americans are suffering. Trump offers them a doctor who warns of sex with demons. - The Washington Post (Dr. Immanuel claims that "endometriosis and other potentially dangerous gynecological conditions are the residue of sexual intercourse with demons.")
Woman in viral COVID-19 misinformation video fears demon sex, aliens - Business Insider
A Fight For The Soul Of America Is A Fight For The World - YouTube (Dr. Stella Immanuel: "How long are we going to allow the gay agenda, secular humanism, Illuminati and the demonic New World Order to destroy our homes, families and the social fiber of America." Those demons are "spirit husbands" and "spirit wives" who visit humans in "sexy dreams")
I know that those demons have not visited me since I do not recall a "sexy dream", but I am curious whether the "alien DNA" can prevent my increasing number of brain malfunctions. Maybe Dr. Immanuel knows where I can find some.
Trump remarked at a briefing on 7/28 that Dr. Immanuel's statements in the video about hydroxychloroquine being a cure for Covid-19 were "spectacular" in Doctor Don's opinion. Doofus Don also claimed that the other doctors appearing in the video, financed by the Tea Party Patriots, were "well respected".
After Facebook removed her video, Ms. Immanuel said that God would destroy's Facebook's servers if the video was not restored.
However, for anyone wishing to watch her sermons, there are plenty of them available for viewing.
My idea is that Donald needs to drop Pence as VP now, substituting Ms Immanuel now as the appropriate republican response to Biden's choice.
Fauci rebukes Trump's renewed push for ineffective Covid-19 treatment
Donald held a rally in Texas last Wednesday where few, including Donald, wore a mask or practiced social distancing. Donald Trump campaigns WITHOUT a mask in Texas despite state's coroanvirus surge | Daily Mail OnlineFew At Trump's Texas Energy Event Seen Wearing Masks, Social Distancing
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Trump tax returns: Lawyers seek to block Manhattan DA Vance subpoena
Local stations across the country set to air Fauci conspiracy theory over the weekend - CNN;
Trump was secretly recorded boasting on speakerphone of how many retweets he got for a post defending Confederate base names
Sinclair gives “Plandemic" conspiracy theorists a platform to spread their lies about Dr. Fauci and the coronavirus | Media Matters for America
This particular conspiracy theory claims that Dr. Fauci invented Covid-19 and gave it to China who then weaponized it.
The republican mind, as Trump knows full well, will accept as fact any fact free conspiracy theory no matter how ridiculous. Sinclair is bringing right-wing COVID-19 talking points and conspiracy theories to local news stations | Media Matters for America
The Sinclair Broadcast Group owns 191 TV stations in 89 U.S. markets. I boycott their Nashville, TN. station WZTV. Sinclair is a far right oriented media organization that supports Trump.
Trump erupted over Esper's de facto ban on Confederate flag, sources say
Spin, deride, attack: How Trump’s handling of Trump University presaged his presidency - The Washington Post
Trump administration has put DACA applications ‘on hold’ despite Supreme Court ruling restoring program - The Washington Post
Trump Is Wallowing in Self-Pity - The Atlantic
Trump floats idea of delaying the November election, a power granted to Congress, as he ramps up attacks on voting by mail
Trump Attacks an Election He Is at Risk of Losing - The New York Times Demagogue Don has strong authoritarian tendencies. The modern day GOP is an authoritarian leaning party.
Fact-checking Trump's continued assault on mail-in voting and suggestions of delaying the election
Will Americans Buy Trump’s Claims About Mail Voting Fraud? The Trumpsters will notwithstanding the absence of proof.
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Trump boasts of pushing low-income housing out of suburbs - POLITICO
Trump Plays on Racist Fears of Terrorized Suburbs to Court White Voters - The New York Times
Republican campaign commercials are using video clips that depict violence during the recent protests to generate a fear response.
Republicans have been using these fear tactics successfully since the 1960s and they generally work on the intended audience, primarily uninformed voters who are disengaged from politics most of the time and who have voted for Bill Clinton or Obama and Trump in 2016. The voters who are still backing Trump
Henry Louis Mencken wrote this passage that was published in the 9/19/1926 edition of the Chicago Daily News: “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
Demagogue Don will receive well over 60 million votes in November, probably over 63M votes will be cast by people who want him to serve another 4 years as President. Now that is frightening.
Operation Diligent Valor: Trump showcased federal power in Portland, making a culture war campaign pitch - The Washington Post ("Trump’s campaign officials say that the president wants to amplify his law-and-order message to show he is a last bastion of safety for a reeling American public, and that U.S. cities ravaged by crime and unrest — which also happen to be heavily Democratic — are the right venue.")
Trump's decision to move troops from Germany slammed as 'a gift to Putin'; U.S. to pull 12,000 troops from Germany after Trump calls country 'delinquent' - POLITICO This act does further Putin's objectives.
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Police: 'Umbrella Man' was a white supremacist trying to incite Floyd rioting - StarTribune.com He allegedly was trying to spark a riot and incite racial tension.
US homeland security surveilling journalists covering Portland protests
American Catastrophe Through German Eyes - The New York Times
Tom Ridge, a republican and the first head of the Homeland Security stated that this department was "not established to be the President's personal militia". Gov. Tom Ridge on the 30th Anniversary of the ADA and Homeland Security in 2020 | The Michael Smerconish Program | Listen on SiriusXM
Opinion | In Portland, Trump Hijacked Homeland Security - The New York Times (article written by Michael Chertoff who was the secretary of homeland security under George W. Bush) Chertoff claims that Trump is showing a disdain for the law and is "reveling in the use of brutal and aggressive force" for political purposes, as demonstrated by his use of videos in campaign commercials.
Anti-Biden Ad Misleads on Race Claims - FactCheck.org
Complaint accuses Trump campaign of masking $170 million in spending
Portland protests: Feds are flouting court order to stop targeting journalists, ACLU says
Fact Check: How Violent Are the Portland Protests?
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Georgia Senator David Perdue (R) Is Criticized for Ad Enlarging Jewish Opponent Jon Ossoff's Nose - The New York Times;
Anti-Semitism charges roil David Perdue's reelection bid as polls tighten
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) admits 11 ethics violations, to pay $50,000 fine
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Covid-19 Updates:
Florida Covid-19 cases in children: Hospitalizations among kids jump 23%
Florida Daily Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps 40% in Four Days | Health News | US News (7/31/20)
The antibody tests developed so far, already notorious for producing false positives, also fail to test for the subtype of antibody that provides the most protection against a new infection according to this article. Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care? - The New York Times Those antibodies, which are not measured, "recognize a piece of the coronavirus’s spike protein, the receptor binding domain, or R.B.D. That is the part of the virus that docks onto human cells. Only antibodies that recognize the R.B.D. can neutralize the virus and prevent infection."
The local police force in Portland has the capability of arresting those who engage in vandalism and violence which needs to happen. The actions of federal law enforcement officers, who have no training in crowd control, appear to have escalated acts of violence and vandalism rather than to mitigate, prevent and/or control criminal acts.
Coronavirus Is Back With a Vengeance in Places Where It Had All but Vanished
Turning Point USA co-founder dies of coronavirus-related complications Turning Point USA, a "conservative" student organization, through its co-founder Charles Kirk, claims that "hydroxychloroquine" is 100% effective in curing Covid-19. For Charlie Kirk, Conservative Activist, the Coronavirus Is a Cudgel - The New York Times
Representative Louie Gohmert (R-TX) believes that he may have been become infected on one of the few occasions he wore the mask, theorizing that Covid-19 was inside his mask and he inhaled it.
Gohmert: "I can't help but wonder if by keeping a mask on and keeping it in place, if I might have put some... of the virus on the mask and breathed it in."
I am not sure whether he was saying that he exhaled Covid-19 out of his lungs, the virus was then caught by the mask and then he inhaled it again. Gohmert rarely makes any sense. How Louie Gohmert (R-TX) proved exactly the opposite of his point
Report: GOP Lawmakers Keep Staffers In a COVID Petri Dish | Vanity Fair
'Flood' of GOP Staffers Say They're Forced to Work Without Masks: Report | Law & Crime
Trump Wrongly Blames Protests, Mexico for COVID-19 Spread - FactCheck.org
Florida coronavirus: A 9-year-old girl is the state's youngest Covid-19 victim
Coronavirus ravaged Florida, as Ron DeSantis sidelined scientists and followed Trump
The following two articles were written by David Frum: This Is Trump’s Plague Now - The Atlantic; I Moved to Canada During the Pandemic - The Atlantic
Tennessee pastor tests positive for COVID-19 one week after attending meeting with Trump at White House
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Herman Cain and Covid-19 Denial:
Will Herman Cain’s Death Change Republican Views on the Virus and Masks?
Cain attended Trump's Mass Infection Event in Tulsa on 6/20, refusing to wear a mask or to socially distance. He was admitted to the hospital on 7/1 after having been diagnosed on 6/29 with a Covid 19 infection.
Cain died from complications associated with that infection.
The "conservative" Ben Shapiro, a favorite of the Fox "news" crowd and Don the Authoritarian, says it is gross to link Cain's attendance at Trump's Mass Infection Event, ignoring every precaution, with becoming infected at that event. Ben Shapiro slams 'gross' pundits blaming Trump rally for Herman Cain’s death from coronavirus | Fox News Shapiro has learned how to make a lot of money spinning a steady diet of drivel to Trumpsters. Just another Trumpster, similar in many respects to Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter.
Donald, Shapiro and other Trumpsters will never accept that Trump's actions and inactions have resulted in thousands of preventable deaths from Covid-19. Making that observation has nothing to do with ideology.
It is of course impossible to conclusively determine where Cain contracted Covid-19 but the timing fits the Tulsa rally. Coronavirus Surge in Tulsa ‘More Than Likely’ Linked to Trump Rally - The New York Times; Secret Service agents quarantine amid positive coronavirus tests
Spin, deride, attack: How Trump’s handling of Trump University presaged his presidency - The Washington Post
Trump administration has put DACA applications ‘on hold’ despite Supreme Court ruling restoring program - The Washington Post
Trump Is Wallowing in Self-Pity - The Atlantic
Trump floats idea of delaying the November election, a power granted to Congress, as he ramps up attacks on voting by mail
Trump Attacks an Election He Is at Risk of Losing - The New York Times Demagogue Don has strong authoritarian tendencies. The modern day GOP is an authoritarian leaning party.
Fact-checking Trump's continued assault on mail-in voting and suggestions of delaying the election
Will Americans Buy Trump’s Claims About Mail Voting Fraud? The Trumpsters will notwithstanding the absence of proof.
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Trump boasts of pushing low-income housing out of suburbs - POLITICO
Trump Plays on Racist Fears of Terrorized Suburbs to Court White Voters - The New York Times
Republican campaign commercials are using video clips that depict violence during the recent protests to generate a fear response.
Republicans have been using these fear tactics successfully since the 1960s and they generally work on the intended audience, primarily uninformed voters who are disengaged from politics most of the time and who have voted for Bill Clinton or Obama and Trump in 2016. The voters who are still backing Trump
Henry Louis Mencken wrote this passage that was published in the 9/19/1926 edition of the Chicago Daily News: “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
Demagogue Don will receive well over 60 million votes in November, probably over 63M votes will be cast by people who want him to serve another 4 years as President. Now that is frightening.
Operation Diligent Valor: Trump showcased federal power in Portland, making a culture war campaign pitch - The Washington Post ("Trump’s campaign officials say that the president wants to amplify his law-and-order message to show he is a last bastion of safety for a reeling American public, and that U.S. cities ravaged by crime and unrest — which also happen to be heavily Democratic — are the right venue.")
Trump's decision to move troops from Germany slammed as 'a gift to Putin'; U.S. to pull 12,000 troops from Germany after Trump calls country 'delinquent' - POLITICO This act does further Putin's objectives.
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Police: 'Umbrella Man' was a white supremacist trying to incite Floyd rioting - StarTribune.com He allegedly was trying to spark a riot and incite racial tension.
US homeland security surveilling journalists covering Portland protests
American Catastrophe Through German Eyes - The New York Times
Tom Ridge, a republican and the first head of the Homeland Security stated that this department was "not established to be the President's personal militia". Gov. Tom Ridge on the 30th Anniversary of the ADA and Homeland Security in 2020 | The Michael Smerconish Program | Listen on SiriusXM
Opinion | In Portland, Trump Hijacked Homeland Security - The New York Times (article written by Michael Chertoff who was the secretary of homeland security under George W. Bush) Chertoff claims that Trump is showing a disdain for the law and is "reveling in the use of brutal and aggressive force" for political purposes, as demonstrated by his use of videos in campaign commercials.
Anti-Biden Ad Misleads on Race Claims - FactCheck.org
Complaint accuses Trump campaign of masking $170 million in spending
Portland protests: Feds are flouting court order to stop targeting journalists, ACLU says
Fact Check: How Violent Are the Portland Protests?
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Georgia Senator David Perdue (R) Is Criticized for Ad Enlarging Jewish Opponent Jon Ossoff's Nose - The New York Times;
Anti-Semitism charges roil David Perdue's reelection bid as polls tighten
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) admits 11 ethics violations, to pay $50,000 fine
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Covid-19 Updates:
As of 7/31/20 |
Florida Daily Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps 40% in Four Days | Health News | US News (7/31/20)
The antibody tests developed so far, already notorious for producing false positives, also fail to test for the subtype of antibody that provides the most protection against a new infection according to this article. Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care? - The New York Times Those antibodies, which are not measured, "recognize a piece of the coronavirus’s spike protein, the receptor binding domain, or R.B.D. That is the part of the virus that docks onto human cells. Only antibodies that recognize the R.B.D. can neutralize the virus and prevent infection."
The local police force in Portland has the capability of arresting those who engage in vandalism and violence which needs to happen. The actions of federal law enforcement officers, who have no training in crowd control, appear to have escalated acts of violence and vandalism rather than to mitigate, prevent and/or control criminal acts.
Coronavirus Is Back With a Vengeance in Places Where It Had All but Vanished
Turning Point USA co-founder dies of coronavirus-related complications Turning Point USA, a "conservative" student organization, through its co-founder Charles Kirk, claims that "hydroxychloroquine" is 100% effective in curing Covid-19. For Charlie Kirk, Conservative Activist, the Coronavirus Is a Cudgel - The New York Times
Representative Louie Gohmert (R-TX) believes that he may have been become infected on one of the few occasions he wore the mask, theorizing that Covid-19 was inside his mask and he inhaled it.
Gohmert: "I can't help but wonder if by keeping a mask on and keeping it in place, if I might have put some... of the virus on the mask and breathed it in."
I am not sure whether he was saying that he exhaled Covid-19 out of his lungs, the virus was then caught by the mask and then he inhaled it again. Gohmert rarely makes any sense. How Louie Gohmert (R-TX) proved exactly the opposite of his point
Report: GOP Lawmakers Keep Staffers In a COVID Petri Dish | Vanity Fair
'Flood' of GOP Staffers Say They're Forced to Work Without Masks: Report | Law & Crime
Trump Wrongly Blames Protests, Mexico for COVID-19 Spread - FactCheck.org
Florida coronavirus: A 9-year-old girl is the state's youngest Covid-19 victim
Coronavirus ravaged Florida, as Ron DeSantis sidelined scientists and followed Trump
The following two articles were written by David Frum: This Is Trump’s Plague Now - The Atlantic; I Moved to Canada During the Pandemic - The Atlantic
Tennessee pastor tests positive for COVID-19 one week after attending meeting with Trump at White House
+++
Herman Cain and Covid-19 Denial:
Will Herman Cain’s Death Change Republican Views on the Virus and Masks?
Cain attended Trump's Mass Infection Event in Tulsa on 6/20, refusing to wear a mask or to socially distance. He was admitted to the hospital on 7/1 after having been diagnosed on 6/29 with a Covid 19 infection.
Cain died from complications associated with that infection.
The "conservative" Ben Shapiro, a favorite of the Fox "news" crowd and Don the Authoritarian, says it is gross to link Cain's attendance at Trump's Mass Infection Event, ignoring every precaution, with becoming infected at that event. Ben Shapiro slams 'gross' pundits blaming Trump rally for Herman Cain’s death from coronavirus | Fox News Shapiro has learned how to make a lot of money spinning a steady diet of drivel to Trumpsters. Just another Trumpster, similar in many respects to Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter.
Donald, Shapiro and other Trumpsters will never accept that Trump's actions and inactions have resulted in thousands of preventable deaths from Covid-19. Making that observation has nothing to do with ideology.
It is of course impossible to conclusively determine where Cain contracted Covid-19 but the timing fits the Tulsa rally. Coronavirus Surge in Tulsa ‘More Than Likely’ Linked to Trump Rally - The New York Times; Secret Service agents quarantine amid positive coronavirus tests
+++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
Regional bank stocks are being bought in negligible amounts. This sector is in extreme disfavor now. I do not anticipate that these stocks will work anytime soon, but valuations and dividend yields are attractive for longer term holds.
I am tiptoeing into international stock ETFs and global thematic stock ETFs. International stock ETFs have massively underperformed the S & P 500 for years. That may continue. Emerging market ETFs and China stock ETFs have perked up recently.
Regional bank stocks are being bought in negligible amounts. This sector is in extreme disfavor now. I do not anticipate that these stocks will work anytime soon, but valuations and dividend yields are attractive for longer term holds.
I am tiptoeing into international stock ETFs and global thematic stock ETFs. International stock ETFs have massively underperformed the S & P 500 for years. That may continue. Emerging market ETFs and China stock ETFs have perked up recently.
1. Small Ball:
A. Added 5 BDGE at $19.5; 5 at $18.9; 5 at $18.4; 5 at $18; 5 at $17.9; 5 at $17.7:
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
Closing Price 7/31: BDGE $18.09 -$0.14 -0.77%
BDGE SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Restarted BDGE-Bought 10 at $19.9 (6/13/20 Post)
Bridge Bancorp Acquiring Dime Community Bancshares:
BDGE is in the process of acquiring Dime Community Bancshares. Bridge Bancorp, Inc. and Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. to Combine in Merger of Equals Creating The Best Business Bank in New York ("Dime shareholders will receive 0.6480 shares of Bridge common stock for each share of Dime common stock they own. Each outstanding share of Dime’s 5.50% Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A will be converted into the right to receive one share of a newly created series of preferred stock of Bridge with the same preferences and rights.") I discuss buying the Dime's 5.5% preferred stock in Item # 2.A. below.
Some Buy Discussions: Item # 5 Added 50 BDGE at $20.76 (8/17/13 Post); Item # 4 Bought Back 50 BDGE at $19.65 (8/17/12 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 BDGE at $18 (10/25/11 Post); Item # 4 Bought 50 BDGE at $22.14 (2/14/11 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 BDGE at $23.11 (1/20/11 Post)
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 109+ BDGE at $35.53 (10/31/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,782.46); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 BDGE at $35.03 (4/23/17 Post)(profit snapshot $376.06); Item # 4 Pared BDGE Selling Highest Cost 56 Shares at $24.71 (10/10/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $200.65); Item # 3 Sold 50 BDGE at $23.01 (9/24/12 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 BDGE at $23.5 (7/3/12 Post)
BDGE Trading Profits to Date: $2,748.31
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
Closing Price 7/31: BDGE $18.09 -$0.14 -0.77%
BDGE SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Restarted BDGE-Bought 10 at $19.9 (6/13/20 Post)
Bridge Bancorp Acquiring Dime Community Bancshares:
BDGE is in the process of acquiring Dime Community Bancshares. Bridge Bancorp, Inc. and Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. to Combine in Merger of Equals Creating The Best Business Bank in New York ("Dime shareholders will receive 0.6480 shares of Bridge common stock for each share of Dime common stock they own. Each outstanding share of Dime’s 5.50% Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A will be converted into the right to receive one share of a newly created series of preferred stock of Bridge with the same preferences and rights.") I discuss buying the Dime's 5.5% preferred stock in Item # 2.A. below.
Dime is a holding company that owns Dime Community Bank that operates "twenty-eight banking offices located throughout Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, Nassau and Suffolk Counties, New York."
Bridge owns BNB Bank that operates primarily in Staten Island, NY. Locations-BNB Bank
BNB "operates 38 branch locations serving Long Island and the greater New York metropolitan area."
I view the banking locations as complimentary on a geographic basis.
10 Year Chart:
As with most other regional bank stocks, the price topped out in 2018. The current price is below where the stock was trading in February 2009.
10 Year Chart:
As with most other regional bank stocks, the price topped out in 2018. The current price is below where the stock was trading in February 2009.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 ($.92 annually)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/17/20 (owned as of)
Current Position this Account: 40+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $18.78
Dividend Yield at $18.78 = 4.9%
Dividend Yield at $18.78 = 4.9%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Released after my purchases.
BDGE reported second quarter net income of $10.7M or $.54 per share, up from $.53 in the year ago quarter. The consensus estimate was for $.51.
The loan provision of $4.5M "included approximately $3.5 million related to our estimate of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."
Adjusted Net Interest Margin: 3.06%
NPL Ratio: .17%
Coverage Ratio: 561.39%
Loan to Deposit Ratio: 90.95%
“As the crisis unfolded our customers applied for forbearance on certain loans. We granted payment moratoriums on approximately 500 loans totaling $630 million. At this time, approximately $400 million of these loans have reached the end of their three-month deferral period. Of those loans, 54% have returned to making their agreed-on payments, 36% have requested an extension, and 10% are pending. Extensions are being granted on a case-by-case basis.”
Bridge Bancorp, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results
Dime Bancorp reported earnings on the same day. Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Increases Quarterly Earnings Per Share By 46% and Grows Net Interest Margin By 14 Basis Points on a Linked Quarter Basis
BDGE reported second quarter net income of $10.7M or $.54 per share, up from $.53 in the year ago quarter. The consensus estimate was for $.51.
The loan provision of $4.5M "included approximately $3.5 million related to our estimate of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."
Adjusted Net Interest Margin: 3.06%
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio: 53.32%
NPA Ratio: .13%NPL Ratio: .17%
Coverage Ratio: 561.39%
Loan to Deposit Ratio: 90.95%
Total Capital Ratio: 13.1%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $19.93
Book Value Per Share: $25.47
“As the crisis unfolded our customers applied for forbearance on certain loans. We granted payment moratoriums on approximately 500 loans totaling $630 million. At this time, approximately $400 million of these loans have reached the end of their three-month deferral period. Of those loans, 54% have returned to making their agreed-on payments, 36% have requested an extension, and 10% are pending. Extensions are being granted on a case-by-case basis.”
Bridge Bancorp, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2020 Results
Dime Bancorp reported earnings on the same day. Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Increases Quarterly Earnings Per Share By 46% and Grows Net Interest Margin By 14 Basis Points on a Linked Quarter Basis
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 109+ BDGE at $35.53 (10/31/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,782.46); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 BDGE at $35.03 (4/23/17 Post)(profit snapshot $376.06); Item # 4 Pared BDGE Selling Highest Cost 56 Shares at $24.71 (10/10/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $200.65); Item # 3 Sold 50 BDGE at $23.01 (9/24/12 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 BDGE at $23.5 (7/3/12 Post)
BDGE Trading Profits to Date: $2,748.31
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
B. Started BOTZ-Bought 5 at $24.12:
Quote Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/31/20: BOTZ $25.32 -$0.34 -1.33%
International stock holdings would have contributed to the decline last Friday.
Sponsor's Website: Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) seeks to invest in companies that potentially stand to benefit from increased adoption and utilization of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI), including those involved with industrial robotics and automation, non-industrial robots, and autonomous vehicles.")
Expense Ratio: .68%
Dividends: Semi-annually, and effectively meaningless
BOTZ Holdings as of 7/29:
I already own a similar ETF in another taxable account. Item # 3 Started IRBO-Bought 5 at $28.7 (7/18/20 Post); IRBO | iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF Overview The expense ratio is lower than BOTZ at .47%.
There is a substantial difference in weightings.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain.
C. Bought 10 WTBA at $17.1; 10 at $16.7; 10 at $16.2 (Vanguard Taxable Account):
Quote: West Bancorp Inc. (WTBA)
Closing Price 7/31: WTBA $16.41 -$0.23 -1.38%
"West Bancorporation, Inc. is headquartered in West Des Moines, Iowa. Serving customers since 1893, West Bank, a wholly-owned subsidiary of West Bancorporation, Inc., is a community bank that focuses on lending, deposit services, and trust services for consumers and small- to medium-sized businesses. West Bank has eight offices in the Des Moines, Iowa metropolitan area, one office in Coralville, Iowa, and four offices in Minnesota in the cities of Rochester, Owatonna, Mankato and St. Cloud."
WTBA SEC Filings
10 Year Chart:
Stock Information 7/31/20:
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 1.B Restarted WTBA-Bought 10 at $15.8; 5 at $14.95 (5/23/20 Post) I discussed the first quarter earnings report in that post. This purchase was made in my Fidelity taxable account.
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Sold 100 WTBA at $23.12-Used Commission Free Trade (4/29/17 Post)(profit snapshot: $1,146.24)-Bought 100 WTBA at $11.67 (6/29/13 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share ($.84 annually)
From the 2nd Quarter Earnings Press Release: "For the past several years, the Company has increased the amount of the quarterly dividend during the second quarter of each year. Although the Company had strong earnings in the first and second quarters of 2020, due to the uncertainty facing the economy, the Board of Directors of the Company decided to maintain the dividend at the current level of $0.21 per share."
Last Ex Dividend: 5/5/20 (owned 15 shares as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 8/4/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): After reviewing this report, I decided to start a small ball purchase program in a second taxable account. The report was solid IMO.
"second quarter 2020 net income was $8.0 million, or $0.48 per diluted common share, compared to second quarter 2019 net income of $6.7 million, or $0.41 per diluted common share. For the first six months of 2020, net income was $16.1 million, or $0.97 per diluted common share, compared to $13.6 million, or $0.83 per diluted common share, for the first six months of 2019."
Source: SEC Filed Press Release
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20 at page 46
West Bancorporation, Inc. (WTBA) CEO David Nelson on Q2 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha ("Currently, our watch list is very low, and it has actually declined from $51 million at the end of last quarter to $33 million on June 30. We had one past due loan at the end of June over 30 days, and that was in the amount of $15,000. . noninterest-bearing deposits in our accounts are about $200 million higher than they were a year ago.")
Purchase Restriction: In each account, any subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position All Accounts: 100 shares
Current Position 2 Accounts: 45 shares
D. Started CXP-Bought 10 at $13.42; 5 at $13.11; 5 at $12.8; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.8; 10 at $11.56:
Quote Columbia Property Trust Inc - Equity REIT
Closing Price 7/31: CXP $11.96 +$0.22 +1.87%
CXP SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
This REIT owns office properties in San Francisco, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston.
Sourced: SEC Filing Supplemental Information 1st Quarter Earnings
SEC Filed Investor Presentation
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
5 Year Chart:
Office REIT stocks have been hit hard due to demand concerns related to the pandemic. Office REIT stocks take a hit after Deutche Bank downgrades, price target cuts - MarketWatch
Stock Information as of 7/31/20:
So this stock has some of the characteristics that are relevant to me when evaluating a new stock purchase.
The price has been smashed which increases the dividend yield to over 6%.
The price decline is understandable given this REIT's ownership of office buildings and the uncertainty created longer term about office space utilization. That explains the extreme caution in building a position.
The current price assumes a long term impairment to rent collections and property valuations resulting from the current pandemic and the work-from-home trend. That remains to be determined.
So far, this REIT is performing well, as reflected in its most recent earnings report discussed below. It does own trophy properties in major markets.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, raised from $.20 effective for the June 2020 payment
Columbia Property Trust-Dividends
2019 Tax Classifications:
Columbia Property Trust Announces Tax Treatment of 2019 Distributions
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/29/20
Average Cost per share (40 Shares) = $12.5
Current Yield at Average Cost: 6.72%
Debt Information:
Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
Columbia Property Trust FFO beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (NYSE:CXP) | Seeking Alpha
"Portfolio 97.2 percent leased, with total rent collections at 97.2% for the second quarter and deferral agreements executed on another 0.6%"
Normalized FFO and AFFO Calculations:
AFFO is a better cash flow calculation since it excludes from normalized FFO "Maintenance Capital" expenditures.
The company also has management income:
2020 Guidance:
Capital Expenditure Breakdown:
Other 2020 News:
Columbia Property Trust Completes Sale of Office Park in Suburban Los Angeles
Columbia Property Trust Completes Acquisition of Normandy Real Estate Management (1/27/20)("closed on its previously announced acquisition of Normandy Real Estate Management, LLC, a developer, operator and investment manager of office and mixed-use assets in New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C. Columbia acquired the operating platform and real property interests of Normandy for aggregate cash and stock consideration of approximately $100 million, exclusive of transaction and closing costs. This consideration consisted of $13.5 million in cash and approximately $86.5 million in convertible preferred units, issued at $26.50 per share.")
E. Started TECB-Bought 5 at $29.76:
Quote: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF Overview
This is a new ETF launched last January.
Closing Price 7/31: TECB $30.67 +$0.25 +0.82%
Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF
Expense Ratio: .4%
TOP 10 Holdings as of 7/29/20:
Total Holdings: 157
Maximum Position this Account: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Closing Price 7/31: CXP $11.96 +$0.22 +1.87%
CXP SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
This REIT owns office properties in San Francisco, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston.
Sourced: SEC Filing Supplemental Information 1st Quarter Earnings
SEC Filed Investor Presentation
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
5 Year Chart:
Office REIT stocks have been hit hard due to demand concerns related to the pandemic. Office REIT stocks take a hit after Deutche Bank downgrades, price target cuts - MarketWatch
Stock Information as of 7/31/20:
So this stock has some of the characteristics that are relevant to me when evaluating a new stock purchase.
The price has been smashed which increases the dividend yield to over 6%.
The price decline is understandable given this REIT's ownership of office buildings and the uncertainty created longer term about office space utilization. That explains the extreme caution in building a position.
The current price assumes a long term impairment to rent collections and property valuations resulting from the current pandemic and the work-from-home trend. That remains to be determined.
So far, this REIT is performing well, as reflected in its most recent earnings report discussed below. It does own trophy properties in major markets.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, raised from $.20 effective for the June 2020 payment
Columbia Property Trust-Dividends
2019 Tax Classifications:
Columbia Property Trust Announces Tax Treatment of 2019 Distributions
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/29/20
Average Cost per share (40 Shares) = $12.5
Current Yield at Average Cost: 6.72%
Debt Information:
Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
Columbia Property Trust FFO beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (NYSE:CXP) | Seeking Alpha
"Portfolio 97.2 percent leased, with total rent collections at 97.2% for the second quarter and deferral agreements executed on another 0.6%"
Normalized FFO and AFFO Calculations:
AFFO is a better cash flow calculation since it excludes from normalized FFO "Maintenance Capital" expenditures.
The company also has management income:
2020 Guidance:
Capital Expenditure Breakdown:
Other 2020 News:
Columbia Property Trust Completes Sale of Office Park in Suburban Los Angeles
Columbia Property Trust Completes Acquisition of Normandy Real Estate Management (1/27/20)("closed on its previously announced acquisition of Normandy Real Estate Management, LLC, a developer, operator and investment manager of office and mixed-use assets in New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C. Columbia acquired the operating platform and real property interests of Normandy for aggregate cash and stock consideration of approximately $100 million, exclusive of transaction and closing costs. This consideration consisted of $13.5 million in cash and approximately $86.5 million in convertible preferred units, issued at $26.50 per share.")
Columbia Property Trust Completes Sale of Westinghouse Campus in Suburban Pittsburgh (1/17/20)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position this Account: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position this Account: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends.
E. Started TECB-Bought 5 at $29.76:
Quote: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF Overview
This is a new ETF launched last January.
Closing Price 7/31: TECB $30.67 +$0.25 +0.82%
Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF
Expense Ratio: .4%
TOP 10 Holdings as of 7/29/20:
Total Holdings: 157
Maximum Position this Account: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
F. Started PLYM-Bought 10 at $12.85; 5 at $12.1; 5 at $11.8:
Closing Price 7/31: PLYM $13.27 -$0.03 -0.23%
Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
PLYM "is a full service, vertically integrated, self-administered and self-managed organization. The Company focuses on the acquisition, ownership and management of single and multi-tenant Class B industrial properties, including distribution centers, warehouses and light industrial properties, primarily located in secondary and select primary markets across the U.S. As of March 31, 2020, the Company, through its subsidiaries, owns 96 industrial properties comprising 125 buildings with an aggregate of approximately 20 million square feet."
Company Website: Plymouth Industrial REIT - Boston
Portfolio - Plymouth Industrial REIT
PLYM SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Average Cost per share: $12.4
Dividend: $.20, cut from $.375 effective for the 2020 second quarter.
I started to buy after the dividend slash. The reason given was the uncertainty created by the pandemic.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/29/20
Dividend yield at Average Cost: 6.45%
Chart Since IPO:
Stock Information as of 7/31/20:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
The next earnings report will be released before the market opens on 8/6/20.
G. Added to JRI-Bought 10 at $11.8; 10 at 11.66:
Quote: JRI | Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview
Closing Price 7/31: JRI $12.20 -$0.07 -0.57%
Sponsor's Website: JRI - Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund
Dividends: Monthly at the current rate of $.0965 per share ($1.16 rounded annually) The rate has fluctuated up and down over time.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/14/20 (all shares owned as of)
SEC Filings
Last SEC Filed Report: Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (period ending 12/31/19)
Leverage Information (pages 47-48 in annual report):
Assuming the fund still borrows at a .65% spread to the 1 month Libor rate, the cost of its borrowings would have come down this year. 1-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR)-St. Louis Fed That rate was at 1.76% on 12/31/20 and is currently range bound between .15% to .18%. The effective leverage was at 28.21% as of 6/30/20
Asset Allocation as of 6/30/20:
Top 10 Holdings as of 6/30/20:
% Foreign Securities as of 6/30/20: 41.65%
Through ownership of foreign securities, the fund will have exposure to foreign currencies:
Data Date of 7/6/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.99
Closing Market Price: $11.83
Discount: -15.44 %
Data Date of 7/13/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.79
Closing Market Price: $11.55
Discount: -16.24%
Sourced: JRI- CEF Connect
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $11.99
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 9.67% (assumes continuation of current monthly penny rate)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, for as long as the likely reinvestment price will be at a 10%+ discount to net asset value per share.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.C. Added 5 JRI at $8.95; 10 at $8.09; 10 at $10.16; 10 at $10.66 (5/16/20 Post)
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1.K Eliminated JRI in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $11.48 (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.35)
Item # 2.A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98 (12/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $140.67); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51(10/30/19 Post )(profit snapshot = $100.41); Item # 4 Sold 100 JRI at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)
JRI Realized Gains to Date: $350.88
Highest Cost Lot: 10 shares bought at $16.04 (2/28/20), will be sold when and if I can do so at any profit before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Goal: Total return in excess of the dividends paid before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
H. Eliminated JTD-Sold 25 at $13.09:
Quote: Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund Overview
Closing Price 7/31: JTD $13.06 -$0.07 -0.53%
JTD SEC Filings
Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund (last SEC filed shareholder report, period ending 12/31/2019)
Sponsor's Website: Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund | Closed-End Fund
Profit Snapshot: +$45.16
Item # 4.G. Started JTD-Bought 20 at $11.38; 10 at $11; 10 at $9.79 (4/4/20 Post)
Data Date of 7/7/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $14.26
Closing Market Price: $13.03
Discount: -8.63%
Sourced: JTD- CEF Connect
Dividends: Quarterly at $.2945 per share; reduced from $.31
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/20 (owned as of)
Number of Holdings: 161 as of 6/30/20
Top 10 Holdings as of 6/30/20:
I. Started as a Placeholder-Bought 1 KOMP at $38.8:
Quote: SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/31: KOMP $39.91 -$0.11 -0.27%
Sponsor's Website: KOMP: SPDR® S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF This ETF tracks an index "designed to capture companies whose products and services are driving innovation and transforming the global economy through the use of existing and emerging technologies, and rapid developments in robotics, automation, artificial intelligence, connectedness and processing power "
Expense Ratio: .2%
Chart Since IPO:
Holdings as of 7/29:
Number of Holdings: 397
This ETF was mentioned in a Barron's article published on 7/31/20: Thematic ETFs Invest In the Hottest Trends. How Not To Get Burned. - Barron's With 397 holdings, KOMP is more diversified than most other thematic ETFs such as BOTZ discussed above in Item #1.B.
J. Restarted RIOCF-Bought 10 at average cost of $10.94:
History in this Schwab Account:
The last transaction was to sell 100 at $20.35 (12/2/16), which was mentioned in a 12/4/16 comment. I previously sold the CAD priced shares at C$27.04. Item # 7 (7/19/14 Post)
Quotes:
USD: RIOCF (pink sheets; priced in USDs)
CAD: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price 7/31: RIOCF $11.15 -$0.28 -2.46%
I mentioned this purchase in a 7/11/20 comment.
Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Earnings Report (3/31/20):
K. Started ESML: Bought 5 at $24.8:
Quote: iShares ESG MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF Overview
I mentioned this purchase in a 7/10 comment.
Sponsor's Website: iShares ESG MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF
Expense Ratio: .17%
Chart Since IPO:
Some Top Holdings as of 7/30:
Total Holdings: 1029
K. Restarted VEU-Bought 5 at $49.41:
Quote: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/31: VEU $49.48 -$0.83 -1.65%
Sponsor's Website: VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
Expense Ratio: .08%
Last Eliminations: Item # 2.C. Eliminated VEU-Sold 17+ at $52.52 (12/14/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.71)
Eliminated VEU at $50.39 (4/15/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.73);
Other Eliminations: +$1,614.39, snapshots in Item # 2
VEU Realized Gains to Date = $1,699.83
Stocks as of 6/30/20: 3,442
Some Top Holdings as of 6/30/20:
2. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 10 DCOMP at $20.68; 10 at $20.36; 5 at $20.26; 5 at $20.09; 70 at $20.09:
Quote: DCOMP | Dime Community Bancshares 5.5% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock Overview
Closing Price 7/31: DCOMP $20.20 -$0.13 -0.64%
I discussed my initial purchase in a 7/7/20 comment.
Dividend : Quarterly at $0.34375 per share
Average Cost 100 Shares This Account = $20.18
I own a fews shares in other accounts, including 1 ROTH IRA account.
Yield at Average Cost: 6.81%
Average Cost 100 Shares This Account = $20.18
I own a fews shares in other accounts, including 1 ROTH IRA account.
Yield at Average Cost: 6.81%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/5/20
Next Ex Dividend: 8/5/20
Dime Community Bancshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Series A Preferred Stock
Next Ex Dividend: 8/5/20
Dime Community Bancshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Series A Preferred Stock
Security: Equity Preferred Stock
Prospectus
Dividends: Quarterly, Qualified and Non-Cumulative
Par Value: $25
Optional Call: At issuer's option on or after 2/15/25
The issuer, Dime Community Bancshares, is being acquired by Bridge Bancorp (BDGE). When the merger is completed, this preferred stock will become a BDGE obligation as noted in Item 1.B above.
BDGE Financial History 2008-2013:
3. "Preferred" Stock ETFs:
I place a the word "preferred" in parenthesis since these ETFs own exchange traded bonds that pay interest in addition to equity preferred stocks that pay either qualified or non-qualified dividends. REIT equity preferred stocks are owned by these funds and will pay non-qualified dividends as pass through entities. The exchange traded bonds owned by these funds will consist of junior, senior unsecured and first mortgage baby bonds.
I discuss the reasons for selling these ETFs in a 7/24/20 comment.
A. Eliminated PGX-Sold 100 PGX at $14.51:
Quote: Invesco Preferred ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/31: PGX $14.72 +$0.04 +0.27%
Profit Snapshot: = $61.46
Item # 1.K. Bought 100 PGX at $13.9 (7/20/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: Invesco
Holdings | Invesco Preferred ETF
Stock Information as of 7/24/20:
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/20/20 (owned as of)
Prior Eliminations: Item # 1.A Sold 50 PGX at $14.35 (3/3/19 Post); Item # 2 Sold 100 PGX at $13.65 (9/14/13 Post); Item # 5 Sold: 200 PGX at $14.38 (11/12/2010)(profit snapshot = $155.96)
The "preferred stock" ETFs have not been much of a total return vehicles with a long term holding period. Note that I sold 200 PGX shares, almost ten years ago, at $14.38 (11/20/2010)
These ETFs have responded badly during periods where common stocks have tanked even when interest rates were falling which was the case last March.
1 Year PGX Chart Through 7/24/20:
B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 76+ at $18.95:
Quote: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF
Closing Price 7/31: PFXF $19.13 -$0.02 -0.10%
Profit Snapshot: +$133.40
The first two lots bought in the chain were sold at a loss. Item # 1.I. Restarted PFXF -Bought 10 at $19.38; 10 at $19.3; 10 at $18.8; 10 at $18.4 and 10 at $16.5 (3/14/20 Post)
Last Discussed: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.F. Added 10 PFXF at $15.9; 5 at $14.61; 5 at $13.7; 5 at $13 (5/2/2020 Post)
Prior Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 110 at $20.51 (1/29/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.05)
Sponsor's Website: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF
Expense Ratio: .41% after a .05% waiver that expires on 9/1/20
Stock Information as of 7/24/20:
1 Year Chart as of 7/24/20:
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/20 (owned as of)
I quit reinvesting the dividend in dividend after the payment made on 6/3/20.
Prospectus
Dividends: Quarterly, Qualified and Non-Cumulative
Par Value: $25
Optional Call: At issuer's option on or after 2/15/25
The issuer, Dime Community Bancshares, is being acquired by Bridge Bancorp (BDGE). When the merger is completed, this preferred stock will become a BDGE obligation as noted in Item 1.B above.
BDGE Financial History 2008-2013:
3. "Preferred" Stock ETFs:
I place a the word "preferred" in parenthesis since these ETFs own exchange traded bonds that pay interest in addition to equity preferred stocks that pay either qualified or non-qualified dividends. REIT equity preferred stocks are owned by these funds and will pay non-qualified dividends as pass through entities. The exchange traded bonds owned by these funds will consist of junior, senior unsecured and first mortgage baby bonds.
I discuss the reasons for selling these ETFs in a 7/24/20 comment.
A. Eliminated PGX-Sold 100 PGX at $14.51:
Quote: Invesco Preferred ETF Overview
Closing Price 7/31: PGX $14.72 +$0.04 +0.27%
Profit Snapshot: = $61.46
Item # 1.K. Bought 100 PGX at $13.9 (7/20/20 Post)
Sponsor's Website: Invesco
Holdings | Invesco Preferred ETF
Stock Information as of 7/24/20:
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/20/20 (owned as of)
Prior Eliminations: Item # 1.A Sold 50 PGX at $14.35 (3/3/19 Post); Item # 2 Sold 100 PGX at $13.65 (9/14/13 Post); Item # 5 Sold: 200 PGX at $14.38 (11/12/2010)(profit snapshot = $155.96)
The "preferred stock" ETFs have not been much of a total return vehicles with a long term holding period. Note that I sold 200 PGX shares, almost ten years ago, at $14.38 (11/20/2010)
These ETFs have responded badly during periods where common stocks have tanked even when interest rates were falling which was the case last March.
1 Year PGX Chart Through 7/24/20:
B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 76+ at $18.95:
Quote: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF
Closing Price 7/31: PFXF $19.13 -$0.02 -0.10%
Profit Snapshot: +$133.40
The first two lots bought in the chain were sold at a loss. Item # 1.I. Restarted PFXF -Bought 10 at $19.38; 10 at $19.3; 10 at $18.8; 10 at $18.4 and 10 at $16.5 (3/14/20 Post)
Last Discussed: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.F. Added 10 PFXF at $15.9; 5 at $14.61; 5 at $13.7; 5 at $13 (5/2/2020 Post)
Prior Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 110 at $20.51 (1/29/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.05)
Sponsor's Website: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF
Expense Ratio: .41% after a .05% waiver that expires on 9/1/20
Stock Information as of 7/24/20:
1 Year Chart as of 7/24/20:
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/20 (owned as of)
I quit reinvesting the dividend in dividend after the payment made on 6/3/20.
4. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added 10 TPVY at $23.67:
Quote TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. 5.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2022 Overview
Closing Price 7/21: TPVY $24.18 +$0.04 +0.18%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, part of Exchange Traded Bonds category.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Bought 10 TPVY at $24.62 and 10 at $24 (6/20/20 Post)
Position This Account: 30 Shares with an average cost of $24.1 and a current yield of 5.96%. The YTM will be higher due to the par value discount and short period until maturity. I would estimate that the YTM at $24.1 is about 7.26%, which assumes no issuer redemption prior to the maturity date, the payment of par value on 7/15/22 and payment of all remaining quarterly interest payments. At the $23.67 purchase price, the YTM is about 8%.
I also own 10 shares in another taxable account. Item # 4.C. Bought 5 TPVY at $21.95 (4/11/20 Post)
Security: Prospectus
Issuer: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Overview
Interest: Quarterly / trades flat
Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured debt
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 7/15/22
Callable at Par Value at issuer's option now
Payment Dates: January 15, April 15, July 15 and October 15
Last Ex Interest Date: 6/30/20
Trades Flat
I also own the common shares in several account, though I did recently eliminate the position in my Schwab taxable account which I will discuss in a subsequent post.
The last purchases of the TPVG were discussed here: Item # 3.B.Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.61; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99 and 5 at $4.96 (4/11/20 Post) The price cratered during the March 2020 meltdown.
Issuer: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Overview
Interest: Quarterly / trades flat
Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured debt
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 7/15/22
Callable at Par Value at issuer's option now
Payment Dates: January 15, April 15, July 15 and October 15
Last Ex Interest Date: 6/30/20
Trades Flat
I also own the common shares in several account, though I did recently eliminate the position in my Schwab taxable account which I will discuss in a subsequent post.
The last purchases of the TPVG were discussed here: Item # 3.B.Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.61; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99 and 5 at $4.96 (4/11/20 Post) The price cratered during the March 2020 meltdown.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
What did Wayfairer do to be a target of AQon? Sell furniture with free shipping? Granted I find it overpriced, but that seems like that'd impress to Trump.
ReplyDeleteI forgot that the FBI connection is the hotel competition.
There was something else that he was taking vengeance on lately. It's happened so much, I didn't even store it. Oh right, Tik Tok! He's issuing an executive order to end their U.S. access since I didn't know this, apparently they are Chinese?. Certainly it's because THAT is what humiliated him the MOST in his campaign. Surreal, a bunch of teenagers managed to up end him on the world stage, and make him look weak. Which adult media's been unable to muster enough truthful gumption to do.
There was a Pakistani/Indian candidate here who's opponent darken his skin in mailers. That type of hate rose after 9/11. The Jewish nose thing wouldn't have happened 10 years ago. Plenty of that bigotry around then, but more decorum. (Or would it have happened, along with darkening, but both not made the news?)
Antibody tests are not even picking up the right antibody factors? It's so frustrating to live in a disaster. And by that I mean Trump's vengeful, manipulative, selfish-focused handling of this.
Still, the only place for covid effects to go is better. So the only economic question is how much it will effect a recession or debt or some longer term impact. I haven't heard much about that. A few articles you've posted every week. Nothing that's showing signs of long term damage that will effect how the market reacts.
Bearish sentiment is high. Apparently that's never happened while the market was near all time highs.
SO, if one can figure out what that means to the market going forward, that is the secret to understanding this market.
a) It means if a new real problem adds on, the market will tank very big. b) Does it mean there's still lots of money waiting to get in, and any good news will rally?
On the stimulus I've been uncertain of when the $600 runs out. The bill ended yesterday. However, when is the last payment? If it's yesterday then the effect runs out next Friday. If it's Monday then there's payment for rent. The end to eviction moratorium is a separate issue that's run out. I've thought that might be why making a deal hasn't happened yet.
Market is pretty sure but not 100% sure that a deal is coming. Is there any real chance no deal will come? Small caps have been moving down more on down days. I expect it's over this. That's where I'll look to buy if a dip happens over the bill.
I noticed on CNBC yesterday that the lunchtime anchor asked why market was down and tech wasn't flying after big earnings. He mentioned stimulus and run too far. It was *while* Faucci was testifying. This is the 2nd time that the whys seem disconnected from obvious whys (same anchor, I don't know his name yet, mid-day guy for the lunchtime chat. I like guest Josh's thoughts so sometimes listen.). My thought is that these anchors normally hang out or call around to investors before their time slot. Get a feel. This one maybe isn't able to connect with his usual sources in as chatty a way as in person would be, maybe others aren't either. So I've tucked away that the obvious whys aren't necessarily something you can get from media now. Used to be easy, flip on and in 2-3 mins a banner or statement covers the market impact-ers of the day.
Tech didn't fly after earnings until after 2pm. (I didn't see an news item triggering the shift.) Day before everyone was saying if this happens where indices don't fly while tech does, that's the start of a turn around. This wasn't that crisp. But I didn't think it would happen at all, so interesting.
I'll come back later to focus on yesterday's posts.
Land: I believe the last $600 weekly enhancement of unemployment benefits was paid last week.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/last-day-for-600-unemployment-benefits-is-likely-this-weekend.html
It is unlikely that there will be an extension of that amount, given republican opposition.
Trump's insistence on including $1.75B for repairing the FBI building is just another example of his corruption. If he loses in November, the old plan of selling the building for a tear down and redevelopment would probably be back on the table, with the redevelopment including a hotel that will compete with the Trump International Hotel, located 1 block away.
In TrumpWorld, Donald is draining the D.C. Swamp.
My approach now is to replace some of the income being lost through fixed income redemptions (treasury bills, corporate bonds and CDs) through common stock purchases, using an extremely cautious, small ball approach that focuses on common stocks yielding more than 4% plus some exchange traded bonds and equity preferred stocks.
The Fed is going to continue its Jihad Against Savers for an extended period. The credit risk free options to earn a real return are either non-existent or require other investors to substantially bid up the price of already low yielding fixed income security (e.g taking a 10 year treasury from a .55% yield to a negative yield) The yield on the 10 year treasury hit an all time low last Friday. The first such issue was around 1794.
This draining is very smelly.
DeleteI haven't seen many 4%s in regular businesses. But if can find ones that can survive to the other side and are depressed now, that seems like a good buys. It doesn't seem to be what's getting attention, which is odd. But sometimes the market does that.
It's important to keep an eye out for raising rates to sell out of stocks. However, there's no hurry to that. Would Biden encourage rates being raised? With the debt wouldn't that be suicide to the budget at this moment? Maybe after he's stabilized things more.
Land: There are a number of stocks that yield over 4% but they are not members of the Church That Works Now.
DeleteLife insurance companies, for example, have declined in price pretty much across the board. Prudential (PRU) closed last Friday at $63.37 and has a 6.94% dividend yield at that price.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pru
If treasury rates rose to normal historical levels, say 4% to 5% on the ten year treasury with other rates have normal up or down spreads to that benchmark in a steepening yield curve, the interest on the national debt which is in a parabolic ascent would go over $1 trillion per year fairly quickly.
The only way to pay that additional interest, given the size of the debt and projected budget deficits running over a trillion a year (far more in 2020), would be to sell more debt to pay the interest and so on until there is a buyer's strike, failed treasury auctions, debt monetization by the FED, and a collapse in the USD. Gold is going up for a reason that makes sense to a lot of people.
Biden will raise corporate taxes but will not disturb the FED's monetary policy.
I thought I responded to this idea. I wonder where that went. It's a good one.
DeleteThe two political tribes appear deadlocked on extending the additional $600 per week benefit. Several reports claim that both sides are in favor of another round of stimulus checks:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/02/white-house-dems-still-agree-on-checks-but-disagree-on-unemployment.html
According to one study, the $600 per week extra unemployment payment gave 68% of those eligible benefits that exceeded lost wages. "The median replacement rate is 134%, and one out five eligible unemployed workers will receive benefits at least twice as large as their lost earnings".
Page 1
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202062-1.pdf
This extra benefit provided a lift to consumer spending and kept the economy sinking even deeper into negative GDP territory. Retail spending in June was higher than in February. In addition to funding consumer spending, the benefit has other positive ripple effects including cutting down on the number of foreclosures and apartment evictions.
I do not foresee republicans forgoing their opposition to extending the $600 additional weekly payments, unless Trump becomes so desperate about his reelection chances that he caves and causes enough GOP senators, particularly those in tight races this year, to vote for it.
If Trump does not cave, the question is whether the democrats will budge on their demand about keeping the same additional payment through yearend.
If nothing is done, there will be a decline in consumer spending starting this month which will have a negative ripple effect throughout the entire economy.
Peachy.
DeleteMay be good for my investing. Won't be good for my underlying stress about the current mess.
One article was explaining that they're both posturing for their bases, but will cave post expiration after they've blustered enough.
I've read that phone banking at this point is about clearing out the lists of moved, disconnected, etc.. Therefore very useful. I'm more incentivized now to join some of the phonebanking options that come into my email for key swing states.
Jernigan Capital Inc.
ReplyDelete$17.35 +$3.3401 +23.84%
at 10:43 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/jcap
JCAP is being acquired for $17.3 in cash.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200803005231/en/
I own this stock in two taxable accounts. I had an unrealized loss and now I have an unrealized gain of about $300 combined generated by reducing my average cost per share through averaging down in small lots. The lowest price paid in my Fidelity account was $9.2 (3/24/20) and $9.54 in my Schwab account.
I also own the equity preferred JCAPRB in 2 taxable accounts and 1 Roth IRA account. In the press release, it is stated that the holders of this preferred stock will "receive cash equal to $25.00 per share plus all accrued dividends (whether or not authorized or declared) up to, but excluding, the date the merger is consummated."
Jernigan Capital Inc. 7% Cum. Redeem. Perp. Pfd. Series B
$25.01 +$1.42 +6.02%
I reinvested the dividend that was paid on 7/16. Since I have a unrealized loss on my earliest bought shares, I will simply wait until after 8/16 to sell the common shares in my taxable account to avoid a tiny wash sale.
I will probably eliminate my stake in a Roth IRA account that has a $13.28 cost basis.
I will probably keep the preferred shares until they are redeemed.
Legg Mason Inc. 6.375% Jr. Sub. Notes Due 2056
ReplyDelete$25.20 -$0.8696 -3.34%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lmha
The decline today is due to an announcement today that LMHA will be delisted from the NYSE once Legg Mason is acquired by Franklin Resources.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/legg-mason-inc-announces-intent-to-delist-junior-subordinated-notes-from-nyse-301104149.html
This is a liquidity event for this baby bond. It is possible that trading will resume at some point on the U.S. Grey Market.
Since I owned only 15 shares, I saw no reason to find out what will happen after the 8/20 delisting and sold my shares this morning at $25.22. I had bought 10 shares at $18 and 5 shares at $18.92.
Item #4.C.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/04/aeb-cpxpre-cs-d-enb-doc-gmta-gmre.html
Donald says he is considering breaking the impasse on the next stimulus package by issuing an executive order.
ReplyDeletehttps://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-unilateral-action-stalemate-coronavirus-relief-continues/story?id=72150059
The 5 republican judges on the Supreme Court have given him a green light on repurposing money appropriated by Congress, thereby usurping by executive fiat the powers reserved to Congress.
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/1/21350679/supreme-court-border-wall-trump-sierra-club-stay-stephen-breyer
Trump also indicated that Microsoft should pay the federal government money for facilitating the sell of TikTok's U.S. operations. Trump facilitated the potential purchase by threatening to bar TikTok from the U.S. provided no deal is reach with Microsoft to buy the U.S. operations on or before 9/15.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/president-trump-might-be-easier-if-microsoft-buys-all-of-tiktok.html
Maybe the Duck will do that in an executive order too. Then again, he may be on to something. Acquisitions over a certain dollar amount have to be cleared by one or more federal agencies (e.g. antitrust considerations). Why not issue an executive order that Donald has to be paid 5% of the acquisition's value and 10% to the U.S. Treasury to reduce the debt?
++
Senator Steve Daines (R-Montana) has taken the lead over his democrat challenger, Steve Bullock, Montana's current governor, by running false ads claiming that Bullock wants to defund the police and is controlled by the "liberal mob". Daines also associates Bullock, a slight left to center candidate, with the recent violence. This is just one example:
https://twitter.com/DainesforMT/status/1288495289045676034
This type of false and misleading ad campaign, as I noted in this post, will work on its intended audience. Bullock was leading in the polls before Daines started to air those fraudulent commercials.
7/2/20 article:
https://www.newsweek.com/steve-bullock-four-points-ahead-steve-daines-montana-senate-poll-1514921
8/3/20 Poll:
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/montana-2020-trump-holds-strong-as-biden-coalesces-support
If we let him issue an executive order that he gets paid 20%, can we get him to agree to go away?
DeleteCan we all get together and write an executive order that orders him to ....
That's not good that we'll lose seats that could have moderates, to extremists precisely because they are acting like truth-rejecting, morals rejecters.(I'd say that better but this one doesn't deserve the time.)
Meanwhile the market rallied today. Come to think of it, I didn't even think of there being a reason why, so I never even looked for one.
Pelosi says they are no where near a deal. Maybe by next week, but that's a maybe. This effects so many people.
Turn around Tuesday coming?
Land: Yesterday Donald said he was considering issuing an executive order dealing with mail-in voting.
DeleteWhen that order is issued, the first sentence will be that Article 1, Clause 1 of the Constitution is repealed by Executive fiat.
That provision provides:
"Clause 1. The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but Congress may at any time make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Place of chusing Senators."
https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-1/section-4/clause-1
Apparently choosing was spelled chusing back in the day, or the Founders flunked their spelling course at Trump University.
We've rounded the corner into the absurd. Unfortunately the absurd can last a long time if not beaten back early (as in now). The Dark Ages lasted how long?
DeleteI would have done well in the day with my spelling challenges. Though I've never considered chusing for choosing.
I don't know what caused today's buying. I really need to bite the bullet and start buying. Short of a new black swan unrelated to covid, the market is getting bought.
Lebanon explosion sounds terrible. So far Hizbollah and Israel say it wasn't Israel, so it's not likely to trigger a war. (Probably is a nitrate or bomb stockpile that was being pointed out 2 years ago as potentially dangerous.) Meanwhile though tons of people are injured and hospitals are overfilled.
I posted a comment earlier. Did it not show up? It talks about reaching the point of absurd.
DeleteI'm signed in, in the usual way. Everything looks usual.
Land: I have to approve all comments before they are published. I have approved all of yours. If there was an automatic user publication without my review, which I tried for about a week, the blog would be inundated with spam comments that would build up quickly.
DeleteAs to buying, I am having trouble staying invested in stocks. It is a daily struggle. I am doing net $ adds but the amounts are insignificant.
Donald sounded like Doofus Don in his interview with the Axios reporter.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/08/04/president-trump-axios-interview-vpx.cnn
I haven't been doing any adds or sells. Those gradual adds are probably the way to play this. I need to start doing so.
DeleteI tried to watch the whole interview, rather than the media's preferred clips.
In that, he gets in so much of his themes. FOX and farther right will have plenty to work with. I couldn't keep watching. As it is, my stomach decided it couldn't digest dinner well. (Probably not related but the timing sure was suspect.) I turned it off before the fun part with big colorful charts he had physical trouble shuffling around.
Now CNN's initiated coverage that opens the door to Biden needing to take a similar test. This is low. For the country to be reduced to this. ...instead of CNN responsibly merely repeating the boring, that bragging about taking test like that IS a sign of dementia, since it's only given to rule out dementia.
I am not paying hardly any attention to Wells Fargo (WFC). I just noticed that the company slashed its quarterly dividend rate to 10 cents per share from $.51.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200728005856/en/
A dividend cut was expected after WFC failed to pass the FED's stress test.
https://newsroom.wf.com/press-release/corporate-and-financial/wells-fargo-issues-statement-regarding-federal-reserves
I do not own any shares. I have a tickler to remind me to take a look when and if the price falls below $20.
Banks are just a tough space and are clearly disfavored by investors. NIM compression and substantial increases in loan loss reserves are major headwinds.
I am expecting that the regional bank Umpqua will cut its dividend after delaying its normal second quarter ex dividend date.
The U.S. and China are going to meet on 8/15 to discuss compliance with the Phase 1 agreement. I have read a few articles claiming that China was not likely to comply with its purchase obligations.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-chinese-officials-to-meet-aug-15-to-assess-trade-deal-compliance-2020-08-04
So what will the Duck do? Terminate the agreement or let non-compliance slide?
China not agreeing...will that bring a pullback? Or some kind of rally since. Well I don't know what the positive is, but this market may have one in mind.
DeleteHaving missed other downtrodden areas, strong banks like Chase might be a buy. As long as it's only strong banks.
Land: I doubt Donald will do much of anything in response to China's non-compliance issues. The market appears to focused on a few issues, including vaccine development and stimulus package news. Several of the second quarter earnings reports, which will be the worse quarter this year, have been decent, with many firms, particularly those who have benefited from what has happened, showing Y-O-Y growth.
DeleteI do not have any trouble doing small net adds everyday. I am generally selling highest cost lots and then looking around for dividend paying stocks that has not moved much and/or well below its February 2020 high.
I mentioned Prudential (PRU) to you recently.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/bdge-botz-cxp-dcomp-jri-jtd-komp-pfxf.html?showComment=1596332485515#c7476946914586462278
I had not bought the stock prior to that comment, but bought 12 shares shortly thereafter and sold 6 a few minutes ago.
Prudential Financial Inc.
$66.54 $3.26 +5.15%
at 1:53 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pru
I also bought MET.
Life insurance companies have difficult to understand earnings reports and the one released by PRU last night caused my eyeballs to roll back into my head. Apparently, the Stock Jocks liked it.
The main reason for buying that kind of stock for me is the dividend yield. PRU pays a quarterly at $1.1 which was recently raised from $1.
http://www.investor.prudential.com/stock-information/dividends/default.aspx
I also bought this morning the equity REIT AIV at $36.2. It may be a month before I discuss that one.
Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aiv
The market had a slight negative reaction to the 2nd quarter earnings report which I though was okay under the circumstances.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922864/000156459020035539/aiv-ex991_41.htm
Up Up & Away, My Beautiful Balloon-Fifth Dimension
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfxqQmWtGNM
S&P 500 Index 3,325.80 +19.29 +0.58%
Aug 5, 2020 at 10:09 a.m. EDT
52 WEEK RANGE 2,191.86 - 3,393.52
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
I would attribute the rise today, so far, to progress being made on another stimulus package. McConnell said he would support whatever the White House and Democrats agreed upon. His support will probably ensure passage in the Senate. Trump is probably willing to sign just about anything that will improve his election chances.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/04/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-dems-white-house-say-deal-could-near/3293323001/
The question is whether Pelosi will overreach by sticking to most of the House's $3T plan passed last May that was not taken up by McConnell in the Senate.
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/15/21258854/house-three-trillion-stimulus-bill
The Stock Jocks are ignoring the ADP private jobs report for July. The estimate was for +1.5M with the actual reported at 167K.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment/u-s-private-payrolls-growth-slows-sharply-trade-deficit-shrinks-idUSKCN2511RJ
Ah, it's that the stimulus will happen. So lack of disaster is good news and reason to buy.
DeleteI need to start averaging in. I didn't buy this morning. But if there's a dip this afternoon.
SPY broke out of it's trading range.
I will ignore the ADP report. It appears to be irrelevant to investing in the market.
Historian Alan Lichtman has correctly predicted who will win presidential elections for 40 years. This is his prediction for November:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp_Uuz9k7Os
Wow he's great.
DeleteThe criteria make this somewhat unclear an election. Only 1 box difference. And that one is whether Trump is charismatic. While lots don't find him so, there's worry that he'll grab the swing & undecided with his make for TV fake news image.
As Lichtman points out we have other criteria this time that are unusual. Russia and possible China interference approved by one of the candidates. Voter suppression.
The counter I'll use to self-sooth is that a few of the boxes deserve adding baby boxes, because they are so big. Civil unrest. The economy is a mix, those who see current destruction and those who trust his prior (so-so but glorified) performance.
But I say 100%, I love this guy and his skills.
Land: Republicans would probably answer the charismatic question in the affirmative. That is not a big jump from believing Donald is honest (81%) and a role model for their children. Most everyone else would say Donald is not charismatic, unwilling to label lying demagogy with charisma.
DeleteIt is a miracle that Donald has become an expert on all subjects without ever making a effort to learn anything.
While it looks probable that some kind of stimulus package will be passed within a week or so, it is not in the bag yet.
Apparently there's more good news on stimulus. It's amazing. Ever positive note gets roaring excitement rather than going to the baseline that it's not disaster. Never a real pullback. (Prompted by the climb this morning on more talks.)
DeleteI still haven't started averaging in.
Instead I started on my taxes. My extension was rejected (for an unknown reason, the site they link to for a reason comes up 404 site invalid. I gather my pin didn't match last year's even though I'm sure of what I pin I used) ... so if rejected, figured the easiest way to deal is to just get it done.
IWM is at the recent highs. I had at the time planned to sell some here if it came back to here. I'm not.
Land: Both sides appear to be posturing on a stimulus package. Pelosi said the Democrats would cut $1T from their $3T plan that passed the House last May if the republicans would go from $1T to $2T. Pelosi claims the WH refused.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-stimulus-updates-relief-bill-stalls-trump-mulls-executive-order.html
The Stock Jocks are acting as if a deal is in the bag, though I would just say more probable than not.
My guess is that a $1.5T to $1.8.T will be the ultimate resolution.
Economists estimate that the stimulus checks only boost GDP by about $.50 for every $1 spent, since many recipients save the money rather than spend it.
Aid to the states and local governments, who are experiencing substantially less revenue, is more like a $1 in aid adding slightly more than a $1 in GDP. An aid package to the state and local governments appears to be a major stumbling block as is the size of the additional unemployment benefits with the extra $600 per month expiring last month.
In my Roth IRA, I jettisoned early today and yesterday most of the growth ETFs.
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)
ReplyDeleteClose Today:
After Hours: $11.95 +0.55 +4.82% (just 1.8K shares)
The stock rose $.40 or 3.64% in the regular session.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tpvg
TPVG reported after the close:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200805006029/en/
The Board declared the regular quarterly dividend of $.36 per share.
NII per share = $.38
Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.7
"Recorded $19.4 million from the realization of warrant and equity gains from the sale of CrowdStrike, Inc. shares, with 56,747 shares still held as of June 30, 2020".
"Achieved a 13.7% weighted average annualized portfolio yield on total debt investments for the quarter"
The BDC apparently dumped two category 5 loans that had an unrealized loss of $18M and another realized loss of $.6M. The realized loss on those loans was more than offset by the Crowdstrike realized gain.
Net asset value per share has almost recovered to the $13.34 reported as of 12/31/19.
+++
I mentioned buying MET, just 5 shares bought at $37.3 shortly before the 8/3/20 ex dividend date.
Investors are reacting negatively to the earnings released after the close.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/met
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC)
ReplyDelete$14.77 +$0.63 (+4.46%)
As of 11:02AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MFC/press-releases?p=MFC
The Stock Jocks are reacting favorably to 2nd quarter earnings report released after the close yesterday.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manulife-reports-2q20-net-income-of-0-7-billion-core-earnings-of-1-6-billion-a-strong-licat-capital-ratio-of-155-and-an-expense-efficiency-ratio-of-48-9-301107090.html
I own MFC in 3 of my accounts. The largest position is a 100 share lot bought at $11.41:
Item # 2.D. https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/fieca-mfc-mnrprc-sca-scm-pba-pwcdf-scm.html
I mentioned that I would trade the lot in that post, likely selling the shares when the price went over $12.5 (dividend harvest), but I still own the shares.
In the same post, Item 2.C. I discussed starting a MFC small ball buying program in another taxable account:
Restarted Small Ball "Buying Program" in MFC-Bought 10 at $10.15; 2 at $9.3; 2 at $8.9:
I still own those shares as well as low cost lots bought in 2 Roth IRA accounts.
MFC is the USD price shares traded on the NYSE. With an upturn in the CAD/USD exchange rate, the USD priced shares have been outperformed the shares priced in CADs and traded in Toronto.
The CAD/USD bottomed near .69 in March and is now at .7517. Since the dividends are paid in CADs and then converted into USDs for MFC owners, an increase in the CAD/USD exchange rate after purchase results in a higher dividend yield, since the CAD buys more USDs.
I also own a Manulife reset equity preferred stock traded in Toronto.
Last Discussed at
Item # 2.A. Bought MFCPRM:CA at C$15.14
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/aio-cibr-cs-htia-igr-mfcprmca-mgk-mnr.html
I haven't checked the market, but saw article that Canadian jobs added exceeded, and the market is reacting favorably.
DeleteFidus Investment Corp. (FDUS)
ReplyDeleteClosing Price: $8.81
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fdus
FDUS reported after the close:
NII per share = $.38;
Net asset value per share at $15.39;
estimated spillover income of $1.12 per share.
Board declared quarterly dividend of $.30 per share
I own shares.
Am I reading this right, NAV is $15.39 but market price is $8.81?
DeleteLand: That is correct but the $8.81 market price is at yesterday's close. The Stock Jocks apparently noted the disconnect between net asset value per share and market price plus net investment income better than expected and a significant amount of spillover income that would justify a special dividend or support the existing one in the event some loans go bad:
DeleteFidus Investment Corp.
$9.84 +$1.03 +11.69%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fdus
FIDUS, unlike most other BDCs, has mostly fixed coupon loans rather than loans that pay a spread over 3 month Libor rates.
The loan mixture at Fidus is 32% at variable rates and the remainder at fixed coupons. Most other BDCs have close to 100% in variable rate loans.
Other BDCs are consequently losing more interest income resulting from Libor's decline.
From First Foundation
ReplyDelete"We’re writing to let you know the interest rate on our Online Savings account is changing. Starting August 7, our Online Savings account will earn 1.00% Annual Percentage Yield (APY)."
DiscoverBank is still at .95%, so FF is no longer particularly better than the rest of the 'higher' yield banks, and not worth a separate account.
Interest rates are doing the limbo.
"Value" stocks outperform growth today.
ReplyDeleteInvesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ)
$271.47 -$3.17 -1.15%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qqq
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)
$106.06 $1.22 +$1.16%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtv
Regional banks had an unusually good day.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$39.65 $1.68 +4.42%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
Many of the bank earnings reports have been okay under the circumstances. For smaller banks, there were significant increases in mortgage related revenue in the second quarter due to a refinancing boom.
While I am using VTV and QQQ as proxies for value and growth stocks respectively, there can be fact based disputes on whether a particular stock fits one category or the other.
Regional bank stocks may be properly classified as being in the "value" universe but that requires an assumption that GDP growth is starting to pick up with loan loss reserves peaking in the last quarter. NIM suppression can be expected to continue based on the FED continuing its abnormal monetary policies for an extended period.
Over this week, I tilted my Roth IRA accounts more to what I view as dividend paying "value" stocks and away from growth ETFs including XLK and QQQ which were eliminated in those accounts.
Donald is about to issue some Executive Orders that usurp the constitutional powers of Congress.
I doubt that the courts will allow him, for example, to appropriate money without congressional authorization and then spend it to extend the extra unemployment benefits or to suspend payroll tax collections.
I would expect that enforcement of those kind of executive orders will be enjoined by the courts, but will need to see what authority is claimed in the orders when they are published to form a more firm opinion. If enjoined, and Congress is unable to resolve their disagreements, then that will be a major negative.
Donald has said many times that he can do whatever he wants. Republicans are not going to limit his extension of presidential powers. He has now moved into really scary for anyone who is a true conservative.
Time will tell whether Trump's now routine extensions of presidential powers make Congress irrelevant and in effect having less power and authority than the English Parliament when kings ruled that nation.
My bonds are still in a runoff phase. At current interest rate levels, I do not view them as providing a cushion, through income payments and/or capital appreciation when stocks go into the crapper. I am not going to buy a ten year treasury yielding .55% and hope that I can sell it to someone when and if rates go nominally negative. The real return on treasuries is negative already and that is before taxes. Over 90% of my investable assets, held in brokerage accounts, are in taxable accounts.
Value stocks that pay decent dividends may be the new bonds.
Yay, there's a rotation into value. A question is whether it's breath coming back. Or whether the market's had enough of tech climbing and looking for interest rates in value stocks. Or is this new worry?
DeleteTrump signed EOs. Looks like a set up. Dems will file suits to retain power of the purse. GOP will claim Dems are against helpful funding.
Another question, many people already have decided against Trump based on so many reasons. Is there a reasonably sized portion of voters who matter, who aren't paying attention and can be duped by that?
He's tried out so many messages. Hum... it tends to backfire when you accuse your opponent of what YOU are, and you are so inept that you are everything you'd want to try out at them.
I saw a gif comparing Biden spirited on a bike to Trump slothing down a ramp. with "SleepyWho?"
Land: It remains to be seen whether the House Democrats will challenge Trump's Executive Orders as illegal. It would be advisable for them to refrain from doing so. Other parties can be found with standing to complain. I regard these unilateral actions by Trump as worrisome since they further an undermining of Constitutional powers delegate to Congress and the separation of powers. It is part of a trend toward an Imperial Presidency.
DeleteTrump is doing everything he can to undermine institutions necessary for the proper functioning of a democracy. In that endeavor, Donald is nurtured and protected by the republican party and its propaganda outlets.
Instead of filing suit against the Trump Administration, the Democrats need to continually run Trump's recorded statement that he will ax payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare when he is reelected. Trump has to have the white senior citizen vote.
I have referred to a recent poll that 81% of republicans view Trump as honest. It is impossible to change their opinions with accurate information.
Anne Applebaum made the following statement in her most recent article published in the Atlantic:
" Some voters live in a so-called populist bubble, where they hear nationalist and xenophobic messages, learn to distrust fact-based media and evidence-based science, and become receptive to conspiracy theories and suspicious of democratic institutions."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/how-beat-populists-when-facts-dont-matter/615082/
Those people are not conservatives, but supporters of efforts to undermine the conservatives values and principles embodied in the U.S. Constitution.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/08/asb-avk-cswc-d-fidi-glq-ibm-kw-lmha-ofs.html#comment-form